Mark Curtis Media -

"The Sunday Political Brunch" -- May 27, 2012

Mark Curtis — Sun, 27 May 2012 13:03:45 +0000

(Fort Lauderdale, Florida) – I am on the road this weekend, in the critical State of Florida. Whoever wins the Sunshine State is likely to be our next President. Here are some political observations.

“Florida Poll” – The polls are all over the place this week. President Obama and Governor Romney have split six recent polls in Florida. The Real Clear Politics composite poll has Romney with a slight edge 45.3 to 44.8 over Obama. That’s 0.5 percent! Just to show you how widely they vary, an NBC/Marist College Poll this week has Obama up by four points; but a Quinnipiac Poll has Romney up by six points. It’s a coin toss in Florida.

“None of the Above!” – The latest GOP Vice Presidential speculation has three names topping the list: Condoleezza Rice, Donald Trump and Herman Cain. Who will be picked? None of the above! Why? Rice would bring some women into the tent, but no Blacks – who historically vote Democratic, 92+ percent. Herman Cain? He brings no one to the tent, especially women. He’s about as popular with female voters as John Edwards, and like Rice, can’t bring any significant African America support to the GOP tent. Trump? He’s an insincere huckster. If he was serious about VP, he would have just run for President. Are we really going to elect two rich, white guys on the same ticket? It’s doubtful.

“Star Struck?” – I have written often over the years about the dangers of mixing Hollywood and politics, or the world of sports and politics. It usually ends in disaster. Such was the case this past week in my home of Rhode Island where former Major League Baseball star Curt Schilling and his video gaming company, “38 Studios,” went belly-up on a $75 million dollar loan guarantee from the State of Rhode Island. I hate to say, “I told you so,” but two years ago I predicted this would end in disaster, and it has. As I said then - and have repeated often this week – if his name was Bob Smith from Warwick and he had the same video game concept, no one would have given him a dime.
Politicians who keep falling for the celebrity culture – and the people who support them - need a reality check. Taxpayers, once again, are left holding the bag. Tragic!

“Thank a Veteran” – It’s Memorial Day weekend. I hope you get to a parade, a cemetery service, or some other event to honor those who served and especially those who died for our country. One of my family members was almost in the most famous World War II photo of all time. My late uncle, Barney Dougherty, was a Marine who fought in the famed Battle of Iwo Jima. Six U.S. troops were credited with planting the U.S. flag on Mount Suribachi, which was captured in the iconic photograph (see above). About a dozen troops actually were carrying the flag, but as they neared the top of the hill several of them let go, as the six remaining troops planted the flag. My Uncle Barney was one of those Marines who let go, and was left out of the photo and subsequent monument. Now, Barney was a talkative Irishman, so I wondered about his tale. But over the years, I met two other Marines who served at Iwo Jima with him, and told me his story was true.

Thanks to all our troops! Please have a safe Memorial Day Weekend and leave your comments at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

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“The Sunday Political Brunch” -- May 20, 2012

Mark Curtis — Sun, 20 May 2012 16:54:31 +0000

(Providence, Rhode Island) - We are about to hit that transition time in the campaign season, when things quiet down somewhat during early summer before the parties gear up for their respective national conventions. Of course, politics never goes completely quiet, so here are some thoughts about what happened this past week and a look at the days ahead:

“Who’s On First?” – We are now less than six months away from Election 2012. Every day people ask me, “Who’s winning?” This week’s latest Real Clear Politics Composite Poll has it Barack Obama at 45.9 percent to Mitt Romney's 44 percent. It’s the average of ten different national polls, with Obama ahead in five of those polls, Romney ahead in four of them, and one poll showing the men tied. The race is that close, and I expect it to stay that way until November 6.

“There You Go Again!” – That classic line from Ronald Reagan reminds me of something we may face again in 2012 - something which, so far, no one else is talking about. With the race this close, there is a very good chance we could have an Election 2000 repeat. That is: One candidate wins the most electoral votes, while the other wins the most popular votes. Right now, polls indicate Obama has a big overall electoral- vote margin from the states in which he is leading. But, Mitt Romney was ahead last week in the popular-vote polling. So, a possible scenario right now is for Obama to win the Electoral College, while Romney gets the most popular votes. Aside from 2000, this has happened only three other times in our history.

“Don’t Forget About Us!” – Oh, yes! There are other races this year, including the one for control of the U.S. Senate. Right now, Democrats hold a 53- to 47-seat margin in the upper chamber; but the latest polls indicate a tie, with 46 seats for each party if the elections were held today. Eight races involving incumbents (six Democrats and two Republicans) are listed as toss-ups. So, Republicans have a good shot at winning back control of the Senate. We will be discussing a lot of fascinating races in the coming weeks, including one featuring professional-wrestling-executive-turned-politician, Linda McMahon! What an interesting career path!

“Enough, Already!” – Okay, here is my appeal to both sides of the political aisle: Can we please stop using references to Adolph Hitler when criticizing our opposition? This week I heard complaints about people at a Tea Party rally using Barack Obama’s image next to Hitler’s on protest signs. In the past, I have seen similar images of Newt Gingrich with a black, square mustache, and of Dick Cheney juxtaposed with Hitler, just to name a few. People in both parties have been guilty of this, and it needs to stop. Hitler was the most evil human being ever to walk this planet, exterminating an estimated six million Jews and committing countless other atrocities. For anyone to portray Obama, the Bushes, the Clintons, or any other U.S. political figure as Hitler-like is both morally wrong and historically inaccurate. Just criticize them on the perceived merits and demerits of their policies and agendas; and let’s have the discussion there! Enough with Hitler!

“Graduation Day” – And, finally, it is graduation day! I was today officially awarded my Doctorate in Education from St. Mary’s College of California. Because of my work schedule on the East Coast, I could not be there to receive my degree in person, so my diploma and my cap and gown were sent to me so I could get some graduation photos taken. I want to thank my entire family, my friends, my fellow students and especially my professors for helping me make a lifelong dream come true! My dissertation was a study on how people in different age groups use various types of media to get information about politics and to help make their voting decisions. Since I live at the “intersection of media and politics,” it was a perfect topic! Here is some more information from a news article: WLNE-TV/ABC6 News Reporter & Political Author Awarded Doctorate Degree http://pbn.com/detail.html?sub_id=67696

“Photo Finish!” – Given that I make my living covering politics and that my dissertation was on media and politics, it was only appropriate that my graduation photos had a political twist, too! Soozie Sundlun, wife of the late Governor Bruce Sundlun, (D) Rhode Island, took my pictures and did a great job! If you need an excellent photographer for any occasion in Southern New England, just contact Soozie at East Greenwich Photo and Studio: www.EGphoto.com.

Have a great week, everyone. As always, I welcome your comments at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

"The Sunday Political Brunch" -- May 13, 2012

Mark Curtis — Sun, 13 May 2012 15:18:26 +0000

(Providence, Rhode Island) – Wow!!! What a week in politics, with gay marriage, accusations of high-school bullying, and other oddball issues popping up. Here is what it all really means:

“Never Mind the Man Behind the Curtain!” – My favorite line from “The Wizard of Oz” rings true this week, because what you see isn’t necessarily what you get in the world of politics. One might think that by announcing his support of gay marriage this week Obama is just trying to shore up the gay vote. Well, in 2008 he received 70 percent of the gay vote, based mostly on his support of a gay rights agenda (with pretty much everything but marriage included). No, his sudden support for same-sex marriage is not really aimed at gays. The vast majority of them are going to support him anyway

“Will They? Or Won’t They?” – The biggest question in Campaign 2012 is really whether youth voters will come back. Prior to 2008, young people never voted in great numbers, even after the Constitution was amended in 1971 to lower the voting age from 21 to 18 (see campaign button photo). No! Even at the height of the Vietnam War and Watergate, young people were apathetic and didn’t vote in great numbers for nearly forty years. To some extent this group perked up a bit in 1992 and supported Bill Clinton; but still the youth vote never showed up en masse until 2008, when they came out for Obama, with 66 percent of the voters ages 18 to 30. But, will they be back in 2012? The White House is worried.

“Where’s My Job, Man?” – A number of recent studies and reports suggest that over half of last year’s college graduates are either unemployed or underemployed. Half! As in 50 percent! Four years ago two-thirds of this demographic backed then-Senator Obama. However, only half are now working at their desired professions. The While House is in a panic, not knowing whether this Internet-loving, Facebook-using, text-messaging, connected generation will come out for Mr. Obama, as it did four years ago. I’ve spoken with many Democratic Party leaders who are very concerned about this.

“Gay Is Okay?” – So is 2012 about the economy, or is it about gay marriage? Well, who supports gay marriage the most? Recent Gallup Polls say that 65 percent of voters under age 30 support gay marriage. As the polling sample gets older, the numbers turn; and the majority of people over age 60 oppose gay marriage. So, is what the President did this week a cynical attempt to shore up his youth base? Again, young voters are fickle and historically haven't voted in great numbers, except for 2008. With as a many as half of them underemployed or out of work, they may need a reason - besides an economic one - to vote for President Obama again. The big worry is not that the youth vote will shift to Romney; the concern is that large numbers of young voters may just stay home.

“Who’s Winning?” – His announcement suppporting gay marriage was certainly a roll of the dice by President Obama. There are upsides and downsides to this bold political gamble. The biggest upside, as I’ve shown, could be motivating young voters to return to his camp. The downside is the risk of losing marginal states which he barely won last time - states that usually go Republican. My guess is that his new gay marriage stance just cost Mr. Obama North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana and New Mexico, four traditionally Republican states that he won last time. On the other hand, my guess is that the gay marriage issue will help him win Colorado, New Hampshire and Nevada, often GOP-leaning states he won in 2008. The big question marks are Ohio, Pennsylvania and especially Florida. All three have big urban areas where gay marriage has significant support; and they all have large rural areas where it is not popular. Mark my words, whoever wins two of these states - Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania - will win the White House. While the main issue is economic, we are probably looking at margins of victory of less than one percent in some swing states. A wedge issue could certainly make a big difference.

“Bullygate” – Did Mitt Romney help bully a fellow high school student, who classmates thought was gay, back in the mid-1960s? "The Washington Post" suggests he did. Romney says he has no recollection of such an event, but did offer an apology if he behaved in such an inappropriate manner. The man who was supposedly bullied is now dead, and his family has renounced the story. Without any type of real corroboration, the story probably has a shelf life of 72 hours and will die after the Sunday talk shows. As an election issue, such a non-economic story will likely be a non-factor.

I spent part of Saturday talking with former Rhode Island First Lady Sue Carcieri about how tough politics can be on spouses and children. I tip my hat to all the First Ladies - past and present - who have served our states and country with such grace and dignity while trying to raise their kids in a proverbial glass house. Happy Mother’s Day to all!

Your comments are welcome at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com

“The Sunday Political Brunch” -- May 6, 2012

Mark Curtis — Sun, 06 May 2012 13:20:15 +0000

(Syracuse, New York) – I am on the road this weekend, but here are some of my observations from the past week and about the week ahead in politics:

“The GOP Math Problem” – In 2008, Republicans lost eight states that historically have gone Republican more often in Presidential races (see map). Those eight states are Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. Let’s just say the GOP wins all of these states and takes their collective 93 electoral votes. Add them to the states Republicans won in 2008, and guess what? The GOP gets to only 265 electoral votes, five short of the White House! This just illustrates what an uphill fight Republicans are facing.

“Fun with Numbers” – Okay, stay with me here. It may be unrealistic for Republicans to win all eight states listed above. What if they lose New Mexico and New Hampshire, but win Ohio and its 18 electoral votes? Guess what? They reach 274, and Romney is President.

“Speaking of Ohio!” – Speaking of Ohio, that’s where President Obama kicked off his reelection bid on Saturday. In the modern era, the party that wins Ohio usually wins the White House. Most recently in 2004, the Buckeye State provided the one-state margin of victory for President George W. Bush. At times, Mitt Romney has owned homes in Massachusetts, Utah, Michigan, New Hampshire and California. Maybe he should find a real estate broker in Cincinnati!

“Virginia is for Presidents” – As much as Ohio is getting attention, where did President Obama go right after his Ohio appearance? Virginia. Mitt Romney also held a big campaign kickoff in Virginia days earlier. In 2008, then Senator Obama shocked the political establishment by aggressively campaigning and winning in some key Republican strongholds, including Virginia. Even a lot of Democrats questioned that strategy because it took time, money and volunteers from other states. Obama outsmarted everyone. The last Democrat to carry Virginia was Lyndon Johnson in 1964; and before that, it was Harry Truman in 1948. Even John Kennedy didn’t win there. It’s definitely a toss-up state this time around!

“Campaign Event or Official Duties?” – There was a lot of debate this week about President Obama’s trip to Afghanistan to review the troops and to mark the first anniversary of Osama bin Laden’s death. Republican critics were outraged, while Democrats called it perfectly proper for Obama in his role as Commander-in-Chief. He certainly is not the first President to face debate over such an issue. President George W. Bush went to Iraq for Thanksgiving in November 2003, when he was clearly planning to run for a second term. The problem is that the critics on both sides are right. Each trip was both an official duty of the President and a campaign stop. Maybe the answer simply is to bill the respective campaigns for half the costs such dual-purpose trips!

“Theme Wars!” – Okay, Mitt Romney is borrowing a page from Ronald Reagan, essentially asking voters whether they “are better off now, than four years ago?” So his theme is to look at the present and to compare it with the past. On Saturday President Obama’s campaign handed out bright blue placards for people to hold at his rally - placards which simply said, “Forward!” So, Romney’s campaign theme will be that “things have gotten worse”; and Obama’s theme will be “things will get better.” With unemployment hovering at an anemic 8.1 percent, few are really saying “Things are better" right now!

“The Bottom Line” – The latest Real Clear Politics composite poll has it 47 percent for President Obama to 44.3 percent for Governor Romney. The difference of 2.7 percent is within the poll's margin of error, so what we have right now is essentially a tie! Get ready for a bruising campaign; this one is wide open!

As always, please leave your comments at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com

"The Sunday Political Brunch" -- April 29, 2012

Mark Curtis — Sun, 29 Apr 2012 15:05:02 +0000

(Providence, Rhode Island) – Things are starting to slow down on the Presidential primary trail. Here are a few nuggets from the past week, with a look at the week ahead:

“Clean Sweep” – It was really no surprise that Mitt Romney won four primaries last Tuesday in New York, Delaware, Connecticut and Rhode Island, but his margin of victory in Pennsylvania was surprising. Romney won with 58 percent of the vote to 18 percent for home-state favorite Rick Santorum. Just three weeks before the primary, Santorum was up by 2 percentage points, but then dropped out of the race. Still, I would have thought many of his fellow Pennsylvanians would have cast ballots for him anyway as a “favorite son” candidate. A strong showing would have kept Santorum in the running-mate sweepstakes, but now I think he’s out of that.

“Voter ID” – Rhode Island made national headlines this week, when – for the first time - it required voters to show identification at the polls. Those who could not produce an ID card got to vote with a provisional ballot. Once the law is fully implemented in 2014, everyone must show a photo ID to vote. Despite all the controversy and clamor when the bill was being debated, no problems or complaints were noted on Tuesday.

“VP Link” – Romney will be the Republican nominee, so the favorite political parlor game of picking the Vice Presidential running mate is now underway. The "Washington Post" has a fun, interactive link that lets you choose, based on a number of assumptions. Click the following link and see whom you pick. I wound up with Governor Susanna Martinez (R) New Mexico. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/pick-vice-presiden...

“A Dog-Eat-Dog World” – Saturday night marked the 98th Annual White House Correspondents Dinner, where much of official Washington gathers to make fun of - official Washington. I am so glad this is now televised live! Four years ago on the campaign trail, Sarah Palin used to describe her life as a hockey mom with the following joke: “What’s the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull? Lipstick!” Last night President Obama made fun of his own recent admission that his family ate dog meat when he was a child. “What’s the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull? Pit bulls are delicious,” said the President, in what was arguably the funniest line of the night!

“Newtered” – This week will mark the end of Newt Gingrich’s campaign for the White House. Various reports have Gingrich making his departure announcement Tuesday or Wednesday in Washington, DC. I, for one, will miss his presence in the race, because he was one of the people who made it so interesting. He was often pronounced dead in the press, only to rise again! By mid-December he had a double-digit lead in the polls, mostly on the strength of his superior debate performances. But his opponents got wise and quit participating in the debates, and Gingrich’s best (and most inexpensive) advantage was taken away. He’ll be back in some capacity because he simply loves the national stage. Secretary of Defense if Romney wins? Stay tuned!

“Poll Stroll” – I know it’s early, but I like to peek at the statewide polling every now and then. The latest Rasmussen Poll has Romney up in Florida, 46 to Obama's 45 percent. Romney is also up by one point in Virginia. Needless to say, he probably needs to win both states to become President. More troubling for Romney right now: He is losing in Arizona by two percentage points. That is a Republican state he absolutely needs to win. But, as I said, it’s early; and there is a long campaign ahead!

As always, I want to hear your comments on the world of politics. Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

“The Sunday Political Brunch” -- April 22, 2012

Mark Curtis — Sun, 22 Apr 2012 15:11:04 +0000

(New York City) – Greetings from the Big Apple! I am here watching baseball and keeping an eye on the political world. There are five primaries this week, including New York, my home state of Rhode Island, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and Delaware. Here are some observations concerning the past week and the week ahead:

“Not Camera Ready” – I spent Tuesday covering Newt Gingrich’s wife Callista reading to kids in Middletown, Rhode Island. We had a nice conversation, talking politics and how we both grew up in Wisconsin. Still, she would not do an on-camera interview with me, even though she did radio and newspaper interviews later in the day. “I’m not prepared to do a TV interview,” said Callista Gingrich, who had perfectly coiffed hair and a sharp outfit (photo above). It’s weird; she looked great and had the campaign lines down pat. Note to campaign handlers: When your candidate is behind, don’t turn down free TV exposure (All of our stories are then posted on the Internet, too).

“Conservative Turnout” – Tuesday will mark the first five primaries to be held since Rick Santorum dropped out of the race. Now, Newt Gingrich is the only conservative left, so this is his best shot to perhaps pick up some of those Santorum delegates and to make a final “Hail Mary Pass” at the nomination. Gingrich has been focusing on the primaries ahead in May in the more conservative states, including Texas and North Carolina, while his wife has been campaigning in the more politically moderate Northeast. Again, another reason why she should be doing TV interviews.

“New Hampshire Primary, Part II” – I was stunned to find out that Mitt Romney will be holding his victory rally this week in Manchester, New Hampshire, of all places. You’ll recall he already won the first-in-the-nation Granite State primary back on January 10. So why the return visit? I would have thought he would hold that rally right here in New York City and make himself look larger on the national stage. Pennsylvania is not an option since, if Romney wins there, he would appear to be “spiking the football” on Rick Santorum. Romney’s rally is billed as “A Better America Begins Tonight,” so I assume he will claim the nomination Tuesday (even though he’ll still be short the delegate count needed to officially clinch the nomination). All in all, I would have picked Manhattan over Manchester.

“On the Other Hand!” – There might be a method to Romney's madness for choosing New Hampshire for his national campaign kick-off. It is a swing state, having gone Republican in 1980, 1984 and 1988, before swinging to the Democrats back in 1992 and 1996. George W. Bush won the Granite State in 2000, but then lost it in 2004. Barack Obama won there in 2008. Yes, I know it’s only four electoral votes, but I think 2012 will be won by a one-state margin, just like the 2000 and 2004 contests. Every state, every electoral vote matters. Since Romney spends a lot of time at his New Hampshire home and was Governor of neighboring Massachusetts, he really needs to win the Granite State, which is currently rated as a toss-up in most polls.

“Vice President Rubio” – Much speculation has focused throughout the campaign on whether Mitt Romney would choose a prominent Hispanic as his running mate. First on the potential VP list is Senator Marco Rubio (R) Florida. Rubio has repeatedly rejected the idea. But this week during a televised interview he slipped, saying, “If I do a good job as Vice President...." He caught himself; and he, the audience and the host laughed. As much as he denies it, Rubio may get the nod, as Republicans probably need to win Florida in order to win the White House. MSNBC did a fascinating panel discussion today on the importance of the Latin vote; and that vote is going to be crucial in this campaign.

I will definitely be in Rhode Island for Tuesday’s primary, but may wind up in New Hampshire; so stay tuned for my coverage here and on WLNE-TV ABC 6.

Post your comments at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

"The Sunday Political Brunch" -- April 15, 2012

Mark Curtis — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 11:42:03 +0000

(Providence, Rhode Island) – It was another busy week on the Presidential campaign trail. On Wednesday, Mitt Romney was here in Rhode Island (photo above), which is one of five states holding primaries on April 24. The campaigns of Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul will be here this week.

“Loose Cannons!” – Presidential candidates love to have surrogates who speak the candidates' mantras (or not) to the press; but, on occasion, those surrogates have been known to suffer from foot-in-mouth disease. This week is was Democratic Party strategist Hilary Rosen who "stepped in it" by saying Mitt Romney’s wife Ann “never worked a day in her life.” The implication was that - as a stay-at-home mom - Mrs. Romney had no authority to advise her husband on economic issues. When called on to apologize, Rosen said Mitt Romney should stop “hiding behind his wife’s skirt,” which infuriated Republicans even more, as well as Democrats (including repudiation by the President).

“Loose Cannons II” – The Rosen flap reminded me of another gem from earlier in the campaign. A Rick Santorum surrogate named Foster Friess said of the controversial health-care law paying for birth control: “Back in my day, they used Bayer aspirin for contraceptives. The gals put it between their knees, and it wasn’t that costly." The outcry changed a debate over religious freedom (which Republicans were winning) to a debate over women’s health care choices (which Democrats were winning).

“Damage Control”- The big question about the Rosen gaffe is whether it will have long-lasting impact. The President and First Lady have both distanced themselves from Rosen’s remarks, and Obama campaign chief, David Axelrod, called on Rosen to apologize, which she finally did, begrudgingly. In the short term, this brought a lot of bad press to the Obama reelection effort. Axelrod was probably ripping his hair out over a controversy that the White House didn’t need. Political blowups like this often have a short shelf life, e.g. the Santorum aspirin-birth-control issue, which died after about two weeks. So, we’ll see.

“This Issue Could Have Legs” – Aside from the obvious offense taken by many stay-at-home moms, why is this issue so important? First, women vote in higher numbers than men. According to Roper, 53 percent of voters in the 2008 Presidential election were women; 47 percent were men. Fifty-six percent of women voted for Senator Barack Obama, versus 43 percent for Senator John McCain, so the gender gap matters. If Republicans can close the gap among female voters by 3 or 4 percentage points, the GOP could change the outcome of a close election.

“It’s the Economy, Stupid!” – The mantra of the 1992 Bill Clinton campaign is one of the reasons why the Romney-Rosen controversy is so important. Why? Because women, whether they work in or out of the home - or both - control the purse strings of the U.S. economy. Even if their spouses are the primary or sole breadwinners, women still make most of the consumer purchasing decisions. This is my 34th year in television and radio, so I'll let you in on a little secret. Advertisers will pay top dollar for programs that draw the highest number of women ages 25 to 54. That’s because they are the “desired demographic” that makes the most buying decisions. In fact, it doesn’t really matter who wins the overall ratings; what matters is who delivers the women who buy the products! According to Roper, 66 percent of all voters in the last Presidential election were between the ages of 30 and 64; and, again, well over half of them were women.

“Si, Senorita!” – Okay, here is the other key to campaign 2012. The race is being fought primarily on two fronts: female voters and Hispanic voters. You will see both campaigns aggressively court both groups because they hold the keys to the White House. In 2008, Hispanic voters went for Obama over McCain by a whopping 61 percent to 39 percent. In 2000 they went for Al Gore over George W. Bush by a similar 62 to 35 percent. But, in 2004, Bush really narrowed the gap, with John Kerry getting 53 percent of Hispanics to 44 percent for Bush. Bush and his brother Jeb did even better with Latin voters in their home states of Texas and Florida. Hispanics are also the fastest growing demographic group in the U.S., and one that is not beholden to either political party.

“Vice President?” – With Rick Santorum dropping out of the race this week, Romney’s nomination is all but certain. So whom will he choose for his running mate? I keep saying the favorite is New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez, for all of the above reasons! New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado are key Western swing states that went for Obama last time, but could flip back to the GOP this time. All have significant Latino populations.

Have a great week, and leave your comments by clicking the comments button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

"The Sunday Political Brunch - Easter Sunday, April 8, 2012

Mark Curtis — Sun, 08 Apr 2012 15:32:02 +0000

(Providence, Rhode Island) – Happy Easter, everyone. There is not much happening in the world of politics this Easter weekend. Many of our past Presidents and their families have observed Easter at the Camp David retreat in Thurmont, Maryland. Here are a few snapshots:

“Easter Birds” - President Johnson went to Camp David over Easter weekend in 1967 with the First Lady, Lady Bird, and daughter Lynda Bird. They attended services at a nearby Episcopal church. The White House reported that Mrs. Johnson wore a mimosa yellow silken wool coat with a yellow dress.

“The Big Bush Bunch” - President G.H.W. Bush and First Lady Barbara celebrated Easter at Camp David with some of their children and grandchildren in 1989. They attended an Easter service on Sunday morning, followed by an Easter egg hunt for the grandchildren. The menu for their Easter dinner included roast turkey, sweet potatoes with marshmallows, green beans, cranberry sauce and blueberry and pecan pies. First Dog Millie and her six newborn puppies also came along for the weekend.

“Watergate Bugged Them” - In 1973, as Watergate was unfolding, President Nixon gave his aides John Ehrlichman and Bob Haldeman the use of Camp David over Easter weekend, while Mr. Nixon went to Florida instead. I found these items on a great Camp David blog. For more Easter Presidential trivia, click on this link: http://aboutcampdavid.blogspot.com/2011_03_01_archive.html

“Eggs-actly 134 Years Ago” – On Monday, April 9, President and Mrs. Obama will host the 134th annual White House Easter Egg Roll. The tradition was started by President Rutherford B. Hayes in 1878 (photo above).

“Del-EGG-ate Count” – Back now to the 2012 Presidential campaign, where they are counting delegates as if they were Easter Eggs! As of today, after wining three primaries last week, Mitt Romney has 665 delegates, Rick Santorum 272, Newt Gingrich 140, and Ron Paul 67. The number of delegates needed to win the nomination is 1,144.

“Pennsylvania Ditch?” – The Boston Globe has an article today speculating that Rick Santorum may be about to quit the Presidential campaign. It cites the fact that Santorum, a devout Catholic, has no campaign events this Easter weekend. I doubt that he would, given his faith. On the other hand, polling in the Keystone State may be troubling for the native son Santorum. The Real Clear Politics Composite Poll has Santorum barely ahead of Romney in Pennsylvania, 37.5 to 35.8 percent. One poll even has Romney up by five points. A loss in Pennsylvania would be embarrassing to Santorum and hurt his chances to be named the Vice Presidential candidate.

“Newt Neutered” – Newt Gingrich lost badly this week in Wisconsin, which is his wife’s home state. His campaign has lost steam and money and manpower. So what happened? I think when the other candidates - especially Romney - began refusing to do any more debates, Gingrich was done. His superior speaking and debating skills, not to mention his commanding knowledge of so many issues, was neutralized. The debates were free publicity and airtime for the comparatively underfunded former Speaker of the House. Without a stage, Gingrich simply faded away.

The next round of primaries will be in New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Connecticut and Rhode Island on April 24.

Happy Easter, everyone! If you have comments, just click on the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

"The Sunday Political Brunch" - April 1, 2012

Mark Curtis — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 15:30:10 +0000

(Providence, Rhode Island) – NASA will make political history today. I’ll have more on that in a moment; but it’s April Fool’s Day, and we are talking politics. That’s the punch line; you can make your own jokes! Politics have given us all plenty of laughs in the past year! Here are a few observations for the week ahead:

“On, Wisconsin!” – The fight song for the Badger State is a good theme for this week, with primaries on the agenda for Tuesday in Wisconsin, Maryland and the District of Columbia. The Republican Party in Maryland and D.C. is comprised mostly of moderates, so those contests should be easy wins for Mitt Romney. Wisconsin could be tougher, although Romney is currently leading Rick Santorum in the latest Real Clear Politics Composite Poll 40 to 33 percent.

“Polling, Schmolling!” - Polling in my home state often has been inaccurate, with more conservative voters outside of Milwaukee and with Madison usually being under-represented in polls. In 1976 there was a famous Dewey-Defeats-Truman type headline in the "Milwaukee Sentinel," declaring that Mo Udall was the winner of the Wisconsin Primary. However, by dawn, when all the ballots had been counted, Jimmy Carter had actually won. Then in 1978, Congressman Bob Kasten was polling way ahead of a little-known professor named Lee Dreyfus for the Republican nomination for Governor. Dreyfus won! The bottom line: Santorum could make it a closer race than is currently being predicted.

“Newt Gets the Boot?” – Newt Gingrich was hoping for a big boost in Wisconsin, as his wife Callista is from there. The two have spent a lot of time in her home state, but it’s not paying off. The latest Real Clear Politics Composite Poll has Gingrich with just six percent of the Wisconsin vote, even trailing Ron Paul’s nine percent. You have to wonder if this might be the end for Gingrich.

“It’s All About the Delegates” – All three primaries this Tuesday are winner-take-all contests, meaning that if Romney sweeps the day, he gets 98 more delegates and the other candidates get zero. Romney currently has 566 delegates, followed by Santorum with 263, Gingrich with 140, and Ron Paul with 67. The delegate total needed for nomination is 1,144. The math continues to favor Romney!

“Spring Break” – After Tuesday we will have our longest inactive stretch of campaign 2012, with three weeks off. On Tuesday, April 24, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York and Pennsylvania will hold primaries. That could be Santorum’s last big chance, with 72 delegates up for grabs in his home state of Pennsylvania. New York, Rhode Island and Connecticut are all considered to be in the moderate wing of the party - the “Rockefeller Republicans," if you will; and those states are likely to go solidly for Romney.

“To the Moon!” – And finally today, Newt Gingrich may claim he is no longer a Washington, D.C., insider; but he surely helped his wife Callista land a nice new gig with a six-figure salary and full government benefits. It seems Callista is going to work at NASA, where her famous hairdo will be used as a prototype for the next generation of space helmets (photo above). Wow! Callista as a modern-day Jane Jetson! So, even though Newt’s campaign pledge to put a permanent U.S. colony on the moon may never happen, at least his campaign will play a small part in NASA history! Congratulations to Newt and Calista! And April Fools!

As always, I love to hear your comments and questions! Click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com

“The Sunday Political Brunch” – March 25, 2012

Mark Curtis — Sun, 25 Mar 2012 13:52:15 +0000

(Providence, Rhode Island) – Here is my latest view on the week in politics.

“Mixed Results” – Mitt Romney won the Illinois Primary this week, and Rick Santorum won in Louisiana. But you can hardly characterize it as a standoff. Romney still has twice as many delegates, and is going to be hard to catch. The win, though, will keep Santorum in the headlines. There are a few primaries on April 3, but it’s a whole month before the next big day for Santorum, when his home state of Pennsylvania votes. His other problem is that New York, Rhode Island and Connecticut vote the same day as Pennsylvania, and Romney is heavily favored in those three. The math is clearly on Romney’s side.

“Illogical Logic” – Santorum’s win in Louisiana, combined with wins last week in Mississippi and Alabama, has his campaign raising an interesting question: Can Mitt Romney win the South? The fact that Newt Gingrich won South Carolina and Georgia makes the question even more important. But it would be hard to imagine these solidly conservative states backing President Obama in November, so Santorum’s logic may be off. The bigger question for Romney in the South is whether he can win the more moderate North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, all of which went for Obama in 2008.

“Unforeseen Issues” – The economy will be the number one issue this year, as it almost always is. National security is likely to be number two. But it’s the unforeseen issues that can come from out of the blue and drive a wedge in what might be a close election. No one saw the birth-control-versus-religious-freedom issue coming. And certainly the controversial shooting death of a Florida teen and how it is handled could be a factor. My point is that candidates can rehearse all sorts of canned lines for the obvious issues, but the real test of leadership often comes during the unexpected events.

“Supreme Care” – Speaking of wedge issues that could suddenly rise to the top of the political agenda, President Obama’s controversial health care reform law will be before the U.S. Supreme Court this week for three days of hearings. The outcome won’t be known for a few months; and it’s possible we could see some split decisions, with certain provisions being ruled Constitutional, while others are not. The heat from this issue could propel it above national security as an issue in the fall campaign.

“French Assault” – The solo terrorist attack in France this week is raising a lot of concerns around the world. In fact, there was an Associated Press alert on Friday that indicated more such attacks could be coming. Much of the worldwide concern has been on another large-scale attack similar to 9-11; but smaller attacks by Al-Qaeda sympathizers acting independently are more problematic, because it’s harder to gather intelligence on someone who may act alone and not communicate or plot with anyone else. Again, this is one of those unforeseen issues that can move to the forefront of politics if it happens again.

“He’s All Heart” – Whether you like former Vice President Dick Cheney or not, I think you have to admire his very public discussion about his many years of heart disease. Cheney is recovering from a heart transplant on Saturday. For nearly two years Cheney has been carrying around a briefcase-like device that has kept his heart pumping through a left-ventricular assist device that was surgically implanted in his heart. He has appeared on numerous television shows where he did a “show and tell” with the device. Such candid disclosure by a public figure helps the public better understand modern medicine. It reminds me of Betty Ford dealing with breast cancer and substance abuse; Ronald Reagan, with colon cancer; and, more recently, Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, with her traumatic brain injury. Politicians often lead best by example.

“Etch-A-Campaign” – Tongues wagged in the political world this week when Romney campaign strategist Eric Fehrnstrom suggested that the Romney campaign could reset itself whenever things went awry, much as we could turn over the Etch-A-Sketch toy when we were kids, shake it up, and start a new picture all over again! Aside from the political fallout, Ohio Art – the maker of Etch-A-Sketch – reported its stock suddenly went up and it had to bring on new workers to handle the sudden spike in demand for the classic toy (pictured above). I guess Romney does really know how to stimulate the economy and create jobs after all!

As always, I welcome your comments and disagreements! Click on the comments button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.