Market Hypothesis

Nifty Update on 29-09-2010

2010-09-29T21:32:00.000+05:30

Last three days Nifty is seeking direction. As per the other data, Sentiment is still bullish but actual sentiment will be revealed on day after tomorrow. Now lets make the strategy, Short position can be taken on October future if Nifty is unable stay above 6037 with stop loss 6073. Short position should be hold if Nifty breaks 5932.

Since direction is still not defined and made a very narrow range, therefore traders should be cautious. Trade may be for very short term if not breaks 5932.

Comment on my post.

Best of luck

Free Technical Analysis Software from Quantshare

2010-09-22T14:48:00.002+05:30

Serious traders, this is for you. A trading software that can fulfill almost all your trading needs. QuantShare is a trading software that can help you track, screen and follow stocks, futures and options for the US, Indian and other international markets. It will also allow you to create market indicators, composites, list of rules and backtests using the simulator and money management tools.

One of the most important features of QuantShare is that it offers its users the ability to share trading items or objects. When a trader shares downloaders, list of symbols, list of rules, trading systems or custom drawing tools, these items appear on the sharing server of QuantShare. Any other user can then downloads and uses these items. The sharing server currently contains more than 500 trading objects. You can search for these items by name, popularity, number of downloads, style, market or country.

For example, a search using India as the country returns 31 results. These results include:

NSE Nifty - S&P CNX Nifty
NSE Indices - P/E, P/B & Div. Yield values
National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange - NCDEX India - Historical Prices
NSE Indices - P/E, P/B & Div. Yield values
CNX 100 Weightage
NSE Open Interest
NSE Stock Quotes
NSE Derivatives
BSE historical data

Nifty update on 19-09-2010

2010-09-19T17:50:00.001+05:30

Daily Nifty Chart shows that Market has been over bought with very high momentum.

Option Chart shows that traders are still bullish in sentiment in the current series despite of being the market overbought. Target of Nifty is not known to any body.

FIIs are still in buying mood.

My comment : The range has not been define as yet in the chart (Top has not been defined). Skillful traders will not take new delivery position at this stage. There may not be a big correction in near future because historical volatility 6/100 is still below 1. Nifty may hit 6000 but will be unable to hold itself above 6000. Nifty may get further momentum above 6288 (chances are low).

I have covered my Nifty Future at 5760 last week. Waiting for further confirmation for taking short position will be posted coming days.

Best of luck.

Nifty Update on 12-09-2010

2010-09-12T12:20:00.000+05:30

Nifty Daily Chart

Now every body is comfortable with the present state of the Nifty. Common people started to believe that market is strong enough to enter.

Nifty Daily Chart

All kind of indicators are showing green up-arrow in the chart (Bullish in nature). Nifty is still below the overbought zone with excellent liquidity.

Nifty Daily Chart

But Harmonic AB=CD pattern is silently following the upper limit of Nifty everyday.

Therefore my comment is that now we have to be more careful about our invested money. All traders are in long position (Big and Small). At the level of 5700, Big players will try to deceive small players. Smart money (chart is not being posted due to copyright) is being ready to be taken off from the market at any time. Therefore we have to use our best weapon to protect our money from big and smart players. We can use 5600 as a stop loss. Profit booking can be done at the level of 5700 to 5730.

Our entry point was 5372. Therefore it is around 350 points possible profit if you are a future player. Shorting can be initiated below 5550.

I want to hear your comments on my posting to make more clear cut analysis.

Best of luck.

Dow Jones update in perspective of Indian stock market

2010-09-05T18:44:00.000+05:30

As per daily DJIA chart, DJIA is able to hold itself above the ICHIMOKU band after correction. therefore it can be assumed that US stock market will remain bullish in near future until & unless it is getting back to the ICHIMOKU band.

If we look it in long term perspective then as per weekly DJIA chart, it is too staying above ICHIMOKU band.

DJIA P&F chart also indicates that it has made double top break out on 1st Sept. 2010 with bullish price objective (Rev.) : 11500

Therefore we may expect that there may not be any big threat from USA stock market in recent future.

Our Nifty is also staying on strong bullish sentiment. it will gear up its speed above 5550. Those have taken long position at 5372 with Nifty future as per my earlier post. They should maintain their SL at 5450.

Nifty Update on 30-08-2010

2010-08-30T21:10:00.002+05:30

Nifty Daily chart.

Nifty may be range bound between 5372 to 5550. Indian Vix has to be closed above 22.89 for medium term down fall of the indian stock market. If we analyse the Indian VIX on weekly basis then it will take resistance at 22.89. Today it has closed above its support 18.32. Closing Below 18.32, Indian Market may take turn around for fresh bull phase towards 5616.

If we analyse Nifty option derivatives then it indicates that Call and Put are equally written for the current series. which will keep the market range bound. For future traders, it is best time to take long position if Nifty closes above 5372 within next few session. Otherwise selling pressure may be seen.

Nifty Update on 01-08-2010

2010-08-01T21:41:00.000+05:30

In Nifty daily chart, NICK NMA indicator has given sell signal.

In NIFTY weekly chart, Still Nifty is holding itself above the bullish level.

Trading range of august 2010 series could be 5300 to 5600.

FIIs are still bullish on Indian market. Huge long positions are taken at the last trading session. Reason is not known.

Monday, 2nd August 2010 may define the Nifty's future direction. Follow my previous Nifty's level and trade accordingly. Position should be taken at the second half of the market hour. Risky trader may take long position if Nifty stay above 5354. Otherwise Short can be taken.

Best of luck.

Nifty Update 30-07-2010

2010-07-30T00:06:00.000+05:30

Above Chart shows Nifty has made a huge harmonic bearish pattern on 23-07-2010 at 5477.5 level. As per the pattern, fall may continue till 3300 level but this is not confirmed.

According to above chart, Nifty has become range bound between 5477.5 and 5353.6.

Nifty weekly chart shows that Nifty still remains above the bullish support line 5366.75.

Further long position may be initiated if Nifty stays above 5477.5 level. Selling pressure will appear below 5354.6. Nifty downfall is tolerable till 4786.45. If breaks 4786.45 level then Nifty will enter into the new bearish phase of the market.

Therefore This is the time to define your trading strategy to beat the market.

Post your comments. Best of luck

Nifty Update 25-07-2010

2010-07-25T18:32:00.000+05:30

Nifty Weekly Chart

Nifty weekly chart shows breakout and made a new high, which is good sign for bullish market.

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty daily chart shows failure to stay above 5453 level. which may create some suspicion among the traders.

Nifty daily chart

Already we have witnessed two false breakouts in the past sessions. Now What will happen? Volume chart indicates that volume is above the 50 day volume average. This time I hope it may not be false.

Nifty Put Call OI Chart

Put call open interest chart indicates Nifty may touch 5500.

FII Investment Chart

FIIs are reducing their investment day by day. That means FIIs are being cautious about market.

Now your long position can be hold if Nifty stays above 5453 on daily closing basis. International bank stress test is just creating confusion among the traders. Other technical indicators are conducive for market up movement. Now only psychological game will play till expiry of July 2010 series. In August 2010 series Nifty may test 5650 if Nifty stay above 5465 after expiry of July 2010 series.

Best of luck. Post your comment.

Nifty Update on 12-07-2010

2010-07-12T21:35:00.000+05:30

This week new BULL RUN of Indian stock market can be expected for short term investors..

Nifty Daily Chart

Tomorrow may be the day of taking new positions if Nifty closes above 5367.

FII Investment Chart

FII are started taking new long positions.

Major change in Nifty 5300 put writing and 5500 long call position of July series.

Indian Vix Chart

VIX has also broken the barrier 20.76.

Nifty change in volume (%) : 1 day = 0.57, 5 days = 2.81, 21 days = 5.15.
Again I want to remind you, Long position should be taken if Nifty stays above 5367, otherwise position should be closed.

Best of Luck

Nifty Update on 01-07-2010

2010-07-01T22:32:00.001+05:30

Gradually picture of Indian stock market becomes worsen for short term investors. May be Indian Stock

market is following global market. Let’s study the probability.

1 FII Increases their selling amount. (Current data not indicated on chart but their net trading value is -160.61 crore on 01-07-2010.

2. Huge change in 5300 strike Call Option. Traders increase their call writing.

3. Decrease in volume.

4 Nifty Future of July series has broken down the range 5377 and 5273

Nifty Spot Daily Chart

If Nifty spot is unable to hold itself above 5214 then Nifty spot may test 5126 this week.

Therefore those have taken long position; they should close their long position if Nifty closes below 5214 or 5210.

Best of luck.

Nifty Weekly Update on 26-06-2010

2010-06-26T13:27:00.000+05:30

Nifty Weekly Chart

Nifty weekly chart shows that Nifty is stuck in a range between 5399 and 4786. Weekly NMA indicator chart has given buy signal for Nifty. The level 5399 is very important level because Nifty monthly chart is also showing same level for breakout of Nifty. Keep watch on RSI (14) whether it is breaking the trend line or not. Basically this is short term bearish indicator. At the last session Nifty closed below 5277. If Nifty stay below 5277 on closing basis at the next session then it will take support at 5165 otherwise Nifty may hit 5380 in the next week.

Indian VIX Weekly Chart

It is good sign for Indian Stock Market that Indian VIX has closed below of its weekly pivot 21.43. Presently it is 20. Next weekly support and resistance appear at 17.94 and 23.46 respectively. and on daily basis, support and resistance appear at 19.07 and 21.34 respectively. Daily pivot is 20.34.

Option OI Chart

As per Option OI chart, traders are bullish on July series. The Nifty July range may be defined as 5100 to 5500.

FII Activity Chart

FIIs, still in buying mood, indicates bullish sentiment of the India stock market.

As per Nifty hourly chart, Nifty may remain bearish till and around 5222 level. Recovery or upward strength may appear above 5275 on intra day basis.

Any specific queries, write at markethypothesis@gmail.com.

If their is any trend change or major changes in Nifty movement, then I will alert you timely.

Best of luck.

Signs of a multibagger......

2010-06-22T21:33:00.000+05:30

Some extract from Bullsbook, which will help my readers to select multibagger stock for investment.

Signs of a multibagger......

Great companies have a very large and untapped market.
Such stocks are backed by a very high quality business. They need low capital to grow. Their products, business both are predictable & their margins are high.
Management vision to see the change in consumption patterns, demand of products.
These stocks are less known. No newspaper, media channel will ever talk about it. No one knows about it. The crowd will jump & buy the stock when it gives a multi year bull run. So the trick is to buy it before anyone else does.
Buying price is very crucial for such stocks. Only buying opportunity for such stocks is when they are available at irrational prices on the lower side.
These stocks have very less or no ownership of FII’s, Mutual Funds, institutional shareholders at the beginning.

Walking on a path of legendary investors, we consider six categories before investing in any

stock. There are six types of companies,

Slow Growers - Companies with very small growth in a slow growing industry.
Stalwarts (Blue-chip stocks) - Strong companies with steady growth.
Fast Growers - Small/Mid size companies with very high growth.
Cyclicals - Companies in cyclical industry. ( commodities, auto etc.)
Asset Plays - Companies with assets in terms of land, holdings in other co’s, gold etc.
Turnarounds - Loss making companies who can become profitable again.

Out of these, we focus on finding companies from no 3 category, fast growers. This is where

the markets give stocks that move up by 10 times, 20 times, 50 times and even 100 times.

These stocks are small & aggressive. They can make your career. Their PE expands along with

the earnings. If the company starts growing at rapid pace, the market values it accordingly.

Here is an illustration of how the multibagger charts are made.

Written by :

Chetan Phalke

Alpha Invesco Research Pvt Ltd

www.bullsbook.com

Update on 20-06-2010 for this week

2010-06-20T15:52:00.000+05:30

Above chart shows Nifty is heading towards overbought zone, Next strong resistance may appear at around 5350 or 5260 and support is 5091. If tomorrow Nifty closes above 5258. Then most probably Nifty will hit 5350 in this week. Then strong support of nifty will be 5250.

FII's activity shows that they are interested in more buying than shorting or selling.

Option Charts shows Indian traders are also bullish because of they are writing more put options than call options.

Indian VIX chart shows VIX is breaking its all support in this recent rally. Resistance may appear at 24.16. Its 70 ema also fails to sustain above 1030 ema indicates long term bullishness of Indian market.

At this stage of Nifty, the status of Nifty-50 stocks are given above. where you can decide about your investment purpose.

Nifty Update 13-06-2010

2010-06-13T22:14:00.000+05:30

It is time for the investors to enter into the market. But they should be careful about the resistance 5148. If Nifty is unable to stay above 5148 then most probably Nifty will lose its steam to break the range defined in my earlier post.

Nifty Update 09-06-2010

2010-06-09T21:58:00.000+05:30

Do not expect much from this range bound market. Nifty may define its direction beyond 5148 and 5961 on daily closing basis. As per aligator trading system, Now Nifty is in sleeping mode. Beyond the above range Nifty may pickup its speed on either way. Therefore medium term investors should remain cautious within this range. Entry may be taken above 5060 and should exit if Nifty unable to stay above 5148.

Best of luck.

Nifty Update 06-06-2010

2010-06-06T20:52:00.000+05:30

Nifty Daily Chart is showing bullish strength above 5108.

Nifty Weekly Chart shows that Nifty basically in bullish zone but market needs more strength for medium term bullishness. Nifty has to cross 5399 for upward breakout.

Nifty Put Call Charts shows traders are bullish on Nifty because of Put Writings at different strike price of PE but Nifty may face resistance around 5200.

Indian VIX Daily Chart shows VIX has broken down the level 26.4. That means Market may move further upward in recent market scenario.

But VIX weekly charts shows we need to wait more until and unless Weekly breaks below 20.64.

FIIs are now started buying more than selling for last few days.

Investors may enter into the market for medium term investment, If tomorrow Nifty closes above 5110.

Market Breadth Charts are showing that trader are still cautious about the market. Therefore market is in range bound despite of being bullish in nature.

Best of luck.

FII Investment Status

2010-05-26T21:35:00.000+05:30

Last 15 days FII net equity investment status graph. Graph is still moving in the negative zone indicates they are shorting on equity.

Nifty update for 23-01-2010

2010-05-23T18:26:00.000+05:30

Nifty Hourly

Nifty Daily

Nifty Weekly

Nifty Monthly

Nifty Hourly, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Technical Charts are given for your analysis. My views will be next Friday or end of this week. If I find any remarkable reversal of the market in the mid of the week then my views will be posted earlier. Assuming that market has made bottom but technically still it has not been defined. But FIIs' are still sorting. Therefore is better to keep quiet.

Best of luck.

Nifty update for 17-05-2010

2010-05-17T21:52:00.000+05:30

Waiting for entering into Market? Yes, I am waiting for making bottom of the Market. Possibly next series.....

Nifty Daily

Nifty second half recovery does not show any silver-lining to the investors. Only hope is that Nifty has not broken its danger line 4925 and it has not made its bottom. Twiggs Money Flow is moving around its zero line. When I am writing this report then Dow is 150 pts down. I think still time has not come to enter into the market for short term and medium term investors. I think long term investors should make their portfolio empty if Nifty closes below 4880. Otherwise hold it for future.

Best of luck.

Nifty Update 12-05-2010

2010-05-12T21:55:00.002+05:30

Nifty Weekly

Indian Vix Weekly

Nifty Daily

Nifty Put Call OI Chart

Here charts show some depressing senario of the indian stock market. If Vix breaks and stays above 28.1 this week the nifty may fall below its bullish zone 4925. As per Nifty weekly chart, it is in distribution phase.

As per Nifty put call OI chart, bulls and bears are equally strong. Rather to say, traders are confused about the market director. it is very difficult to predict the market untill Nifty breaks either above 5207 or below 4985.

Best of luck

Prechter's Latest: "A Deadly Bearish Big Picture"

2010-05-07T12:57:00.000+05:30

Just after 2:30 PM Eastern today, the U.S. stock indexes crashed nearly 10% in several minutes of panic. And all because of...

...Greece?

Greece, dear reader.

If you believe that one, then please -- stop reading. I can't say anything you'll find helpful.

But if you remain tuned to this station, I will observe that the nonsense began instantly. At exactly 2:45 PM The New York Times put up a headline which claimed "Stocks Plunge on Concerns Over Greece." The story itself reported absolutely nothing NEW about Greece, for the simple reason that there IS nothing new. Everyone who cares already knew the relevant facts about that country's financial crisis. It's been in the news for weeks and months.

So the story did NOT become "worse" today, or more "threatening" today. This was not the day Greece became "the first of several dominoes in Europe that could fall."

Then there's the U.S. dollar rally this week -- is "Greece" the reason? Or, is this week part of a rally that's been underway all year, contrary to the conventional wisdom but in agreement with EWI's forecast?

Crude oil futures fell 3.6% today. The CRB Commodity Index is down nearly 6% on the week. "Greece" again? Or, part of "The Great Credit Contraction" spelled out in the May issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast?

Neither the word "Greece" nor the phrase "Greek financial crisis" appear in Bob Prechter's latest Elliott Wave Theorist. But, you may recall that issue's headline, which I quoted in a recent email message I sent you: "A Deadly Bearish Big Picture."

Here's what else my email said:

If you've read any of Prechter's books or heard him in an interview, you know that overstatement is not his style. When he says the "Big Picture" is "Deadly Bearish," that is exactly what he means.

The past week has brought that "Big Picture" a lot closer. The issue at hand is what YOU need to do as an investor. Market tops are a process -- in recent months, you've probably found the top of this bear market rally frustrating indeed.

Yet the brief version of the story is simple: The frustration is over. It's time to get in front of where the trend will go from here.

Robert Folsom

Elliott Wave International

Nifty update on 25-04-2010

2010-04-25T20:46:00.000+05:30

Indian VIX Chart

NIFTY Weekly Chart

Nifty is currently in BULL trend . It is good sign for NIFTY that weekly VIX has taken resistance at 22.16 level. We should keep watch on Indian VIX that it should not break 23 level. On daily basis NIFTY will remain sideways if VIX keeps itself within 23.32 and 18.75. Breaking of either way will define the movement of the NIFTY.

On Daily Basis, NIFTY is stuck in a range 5332 to 5161. As per weekly Ichimoku Cloud Charts, Nifty will keep its bullish sentiment above 4925.

Important : Keep watch on India earnings and news on Europe stock market till the month May 2010.

Post your comment please.

Best of luck

Nifty short term update

2010-04-22T23:58:00.000+05:30

I think Nifty has taken support at 5161. Option traders are also expecting bullish sentiment of the market. But still there is no buy signal for Nifty. Nifty buy signal may appear above 5310. Nifty should not be closed below 5200. Or we have to think otherwise.

Best of luck

Nifty Update

2010-04-11T22:04:00.000+05:30

Fresh 5300 Put has been witten in large quantity as indicated at above charts. Are option traders expecting up movement of Nifty in near future. As I written in my earlier post that If Nifty is unable to break 5310 the further up movement can be expected.