Market Sentiment - A Contrarian View

SAME-O, SAME-O:

2012-03-05T09:40:00.000-08:00

After a boring week ( the DJIA rose 4 points), Sentiment Indicators reflected same: most were Bearish FOR the market - Bullish %, newsletter surveys of Bulls/Bears; Insider selling still high at 45:1.
Bullish Indicators were CBOE put/call ratio, showing hedging - and the McClellan Oscillator nearing the bottom of its range, at -37. Major market indices' trendlines were broken on Friday, and continue down today.
Here are the stats:

Date>		3/1/2012	2/24/2012..
Indices:	DJIA	12977	12982
	NAZ	2976	2963
	SPX	1369	1365
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	9.3/4.1	6.9/2.9
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.27	2.38
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	66
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	17.3	17.3
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1401/1759	1790/1343
	Weekly Net:	-358	447
	Cumulative:	133223	133581
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	383/27	336/7
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	236/63	230/44
McClellan	Oscillator	-37	-6
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1116	1231
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	51.1	51.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	25.5	26.6
	AAII -Bull :wed.	44.5	43.7
	Bear	26.8	27.5
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(5)/24	(8)/30
CEOinsider	selling	45:1	91:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	763	706
3-box rev	Bullish%-	85	85
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(.3B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(13.1B)	6.2B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.28%	0.31%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.19	5.08

CEO SELLOFF:

2012-02-27T09:39:00.001-08:00

The headline number this week is the (legal) Insider Selling by key officers of corporations: 92:1 is higher than the late October 2011 selloff, where it was only 60:1. Other high numbers include the Bullish %, at 85 ( multi-year high is 88).
Coming off extremes and reverting to the mean are the newsletter surveys (AAII and I.I.), large and small traders' commitments ( large short, small traders long); although Volume remains light, the NASD to NYSE still shows speculation. NYSE new highs to lows are down slightly - 336 to 7 from 362 to 7 (same 7?). Short term bullish is the high CBOE put/call ratio, as traders hedge.
Here are the numbers for last week:

Date>		2/24/2012	2/17/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12982	12949
	NAZ	2963	2951
	SPX	1365	1361
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	6.9/2.9	9.4/3.9
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.38	2.41
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	59
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	17.3	17.8
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1790/1343	2185/972
	Weekly Net:	447	1213
	Cumulative:	133581	133134
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	336/7	362/7
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	230/44	265/44
McClellan	Oscillator	-6	-3
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1231	1278
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	51.1	54.8
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	26.6	25.8
	AAII -Bull :wed.	43.7	42.7
	Bear	27.5	26.6
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(8)/30	(7)/32
CEOinsider	selling	91:1	32:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	706	723
3-box rev	Bullish%-	85	84
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	0
MMF flows	Change in $B	6.2B	2.9B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.		290B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.31%	0.30%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.08	5.01….

EURO OR DRACHMA? A GREEK TRAGEDY:

2012-02-20T11:56:00.000-08:00

Greek fishermen have resorted to barter, using products of the sea for currency - it's called "Octupi" the Agora, or "squid" pro quo! (sorry about that).
Although we have a holiday here in the U.S., Papa-Demos (Father of the People) must address the concerns of those revolting peasants. I learned many years ago to "Watch what they DO, not what they SAY!" How much an inevitable default is factored into our market is TBD.
Meanwhile, several Sentiment/Breadth Indicators remain near recent highs, just as the markets do: the NASDAQ to NYSE Volume ratio, for one - meaning more speculation. As with most all Indicators, the public is right until the extreme, when it isn't. My cumulative Adv./Decl. number is at a record high, although the McClellan Oscillator is @ zero. The Investment Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio widened more, but still off the record. Bullish per cent, at 84, is almost at the record 88 -stocks on a BUY signal. Over the past month the margin debt has increased 10%, the same % as the decrease in NYSE short interest (covering).

At this weekend's S.F. Option meeting I had a request to resume my e-mail alert to interested persons about my blog - if you'd prefer to be delisted from this "spamming", please let me know - I can take it.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		2/17/2012	2/10/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12949	12801
	NAZ	2951	2903
	SPX	1361	1342
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	9.4/3.9	9.3/3.7
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.41	2.51
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	59	60
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	17.8	20.8
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	2185/972	1254/1900
	Weekly Net:	1213	-646
	Cumulative:	133134	131921
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	362/7	374/15
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	265/44	263/35
McClellan	Oscillator	-3	-17
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1278	1325
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	54.8	52.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	25.8	28.7
	AAII -Bull :wed.	42.7	51.6
	Bear	26.6	20.2
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(7)/32	(13)/41
CEOinsider	selling	32:1	55:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	723	695
3-box rev	Bullish%-	84	83
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 Wk lag	1.9B
MMF flows	Change in $B	2.9B	(.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.	290B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.30%	0.28%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg		5.01.........	4.97M

WHAT, ME WORRY?:

2012-02-13T13:36:00.000-08:00

Thanks to Friday's selloff, the week past was basically "unch". But worry clouds still abound. Indicators such as McClellan Oscillator, NYSE cum.A/D, and VIX came off extremes, while others cause concern: CEO Insider (legal) selling was a whopping 55:1; NASD to NYSE Volume was a record 2.51.One Technician on TV last week advised using Bollinger Bands on this ratio. NYSE New Lows for the week were only 15, versus 374 NHs.
Newsletter Bulls climbed higher, while the AAII Bears dropped from 25% to 20%. Bullish % is now 83% - only 5 points off its multi-year high. A reader scooped Barron's to tell me the Baltic Dry Index, which has been posting new lows lately was apparently caused by overbuilding of ships, not the global economy signal, which should be corrected shortly.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		2/10/2012	2/3/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12801	12862
	NAZ	2903	2905
	SPX	1342	1344
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	9.3/3.7	9.6/4.4
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.51	2.18
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	60
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	20.8	17.1
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1254/1900	2496/665
	Weekly Net:	-646	1831
	Cumulative:	131921	132567
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	374/15	526/32
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	263/35	341/39
McClellan	Oscillator	-17	57
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1325	1236
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	52.1	48.9
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	28.7	29.8
	AAII -Bull :wed.	51.6	43.8
	Bear	20.2	25.1
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(13)/41	(12)/42
CEOinsider	selling	55:1	26:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	695	651
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	82
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(1.8B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(.8B)	(21B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.28%	0.24%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	4.97M	4.89

TOIL AND TRUBBLE:

2012-02-06T08:57:00.000-08:00

Recent Sentiment (and breadth) data has shown the most remarkable extremes that I can ever remember, in the 7 years or more of writing this blog! Let me count the ways:
The DJIA and S&P 500 hit all time record point gains for a January; the NASDAQ reached an 11-year high last week. The 2011 high for the SPX was 1365 - it closed Friday at 1344.

My cumulative Advance/Decline indicator continues to make new all time highs; NAZ Volume to NYSE indicates speculation; the VIX is at a relative extreme low of 17.
For only the second time in many months equity flows have increased into mutual funds, and MMF outflows were a huge $21B. Talking heads are glowing with a global economic recovery, but China is slowing, as is Europe, and the Baltic Dry Index hit a multi-year low last week at 651 -cut in half from its high.
Usually reliable Bullish % and McClellan Oscillator are also at high levels - large commodity traders are shorting, while small traders are long the SPX futures. Insider (CEO) Selling is fairly but consistently high in recent weeks. Finally, AAII Bears are coming of near record "teen" lows.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		2/3/2012	1/27/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12862	12660
	NAZ	2905	2816
	SPX	1344	1316
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	4.4/9.6	..4.0/9.1
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.18	2.28
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	62
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	17.1	18.5
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	2496/665	2251/905
	Weekly Net:	1831	1346
	Cumulative:	132567	130736
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	526/32	367/25
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	341/39	200/39
McClellan	Oscillator	57	47
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1236	1050
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	48.9	50
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	29.8	28.7
	AAII -Bull :wed.	43.8	48.4
	Bear	25.1	18.9
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(12)/42	(2)/16
CEOinsider	selling	26:1	28:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	651	753
3-box rev	Bullish%-	82	80
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	.8B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(21B)	(15B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.		267B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.		618/245/184
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.24%	0.22%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	4.89	4.82

REVERSAL OF FORTUNE:

2012-01-30T11:07:00.000-08:00

After a very insignificant increase in Equity Fund flows the previous week, outflows returned last week to the norm from last April. The latest monthly data of ETFs show almost no change in flows from stocks, Int'l, or bonds.
Toppiness still abounds, in speculative Volume (NASD/NYSE), McClellan Oscillator, Bullish %, and the number of Bears in both the AAII and Inv.Intell. Even Barron's cover story was about defensive strategies, using dividend stocks, and the option column is still preaching covered calls.The January Barometer and Effect are both positive, but February is usually not one of the better months - especially after a 20% run up from Oct. (5% this year alone).

Date>		1/27/2012	1/20/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12660	12720
	NAZ	2816	2786
	SPX	1316	1315
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs)	4.0/9.1	3.3/7.8
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.28	2.36
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	62	52
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	18.5	18.3
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	2251/905	2414/730
	Weekly Net:	1346	1684
	Cumulative:	130736	129390
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	367/25	292/36
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	200/39	166/43
McClellan	Oscillator	47	52
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1050	810
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	50	50
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	28.7	29.8
	AAII -Bull :wed.	48.4	47.2
	Bear	18.9	23.6
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(2)/16	(4)/19
CEOinsider	selling	28:1	25:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	753	862
3-box rev	Bullish%-	80	78
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	(.8B)	1 wk lag
MMF flows	Change in $B	(15B)	(13B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.	267B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.	618/245/184
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.22%	0.25%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	4.82	4.89M

ORANGE ALERT:

2012-01-23T10:40:00.000-08:00

Interesting week for a rather calm stock market: the S&P500 broke up through the 1300 level to a double top from last July - Larry McMillan states that it is 3 Std Deviations above its 20-day MA, and just as Oct and Apr.'11 and Feb.'07, the OEX put/call Volume ratio was 2:1. The Baltic Dry Index broke below 1000 for the first time in 3 years, a global economic indicator. My cumulative A/D total broke to a new all-time high (overbought); the NASD to NYSE Volume (speculative) also hit a new high.US equity fund flows reversed to inflows for the first time since April 22 of last year -a multi-year high. As seen below, most indicators are Bearish FOR the markets.

Date>		1/20/2012	1/13/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12720	..12422
	NAZ	2786	..2710
	SPX	1315	1289
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs)	3.3/7.8	3.9/8.7
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.36	2.23
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	52	59
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	18.3	20.9
	Advance/Dec-NYSE	2414/730	2161/988
	Weekly Net:	1684	1173
	Cumulative:	129390	127706
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	292/36	277/50
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	166/43	153/89
McClellan	Oscillator	52	26
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	810	618
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	50	51.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	29.8	29.8
	AAII -Bull :wed.	47.2	49.1
	Bear	23.6	17.2
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(4)/19	(9)/21
CEOinsider	selling	25:1	20:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	862	1105
3-box rev	Bullish%-	78	73
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	.75B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(13B)	11B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.25%	0.23%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	4.89M	4.96M

RALPH CLARK - R.I.P:

2012-01-15T11:44:00.000-08:00

This column is dedicated to a good friend, neighbor, and fellow investor, who passed away late last week from ALS at 81. Ralph Clark was a student of investing, at GGU and briefly with the San Francisco Bay Area Options Group. Before passing, he asked me to dispose of nearly 50 quality investment books which I intend to do at the upcoming Options monthly meeting this Saturday morning at Fort Mason, where I and other speakers will explain our experiences with my DITM investment strategy.
Last week's Sentiment numbers saw some toppy, overbought readings, creating a caution signal: my Volume ratio - NASD/NYSE is approaching a high (speculative) reading. Although only testing for a short time (2011), these levels were at previous tops in April 6, May 2, and July 22. My cum. Volume of Adv./Dec. is also toppy, going back to April. Commitment of Traders show Large Specs on the S&P going negative vs. positive for Small Specs. Most dramatic is the AAII and Inv.Intell. Bull/Bear ratios. Numbers appear below:

Date>		1/13/2012	1/6/2012
Indices:	DJIA	..12422	..12359
	NAZ	..2710	..2674
	SPX	1289	1277
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs)	3.9/8.7	3.2/6.9
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.23	2.16
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	59	63
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	20.9	20.6
	Advance/Dec-NYSE	2161/988	2213/947
	Weekly Net:	1173	1266
	Cumulative:	127706	126533
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	277/50	305/27
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	153/89	118/81
McClellan	Oscillator	26	29
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	618	395
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	51.1	49.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	29.8	30.5
	AAII -Bull :wed.	49.1	48.9
	Bear	17.2	17.2
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	21/(9)	12/5.
CEOinsider	selling	20:1	30:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1105	1426
3-box rev	Bullish%-	73	68
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	11B	(1.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.23%	0.27%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	4.96M	5.13M

JANUARY BAROMETER:

2012-01-09T12:48:00.000-08:00

As the old saying goes (Observable, but not Actionable) : So goes the first week of January - so goes the month; so goes January, so goes the year! Of course, a la the Heisenberg principle - since the year contains the month, it has a nice running start.
Sentiment Indicators are running a little hot lately - not quite calling for a reversal, but approaching overbought conditions: The VIX is down to 20; the AAII Bears dropped from 30 to under 20! MMF flows went negative for the first time since November. Bullish % is nearing a high level, where previous tops have occurred, although 88% is the highest high.
The herd-like media is finally all aflutter about zero interest rates penalizing prudent investors, and I have been asked to revisit my DITM covered call strategy at the upcoming SF Options Group meeting on Jan.21 at Fort Mason. After successfully testing this plan for nearly three years, giving several Bay Area talks and even writing a book on it, people are finally seeing the value of it - @10% annualized returns, WITH a Safety Net. If interested for a portion of one's assets, please visit brentleonard.com for more information.
Here are the Sentiment numbers:

Date>		1/6/2012	12/30/2011
Indices:	DJIA	12359	12217
	NAZ	2674	2605
	SPX	1277	1257
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs)	3.2/6.9	2.2/4.6
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.16	2.10
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	67
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	20.6	23.4
	Advance/Dec-NYSE	2213/947	1218/1896
	Weekly Net:	1266	-678
	Cumulative:	126533	125267
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	305/27	295/72
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	118/81	92/161
McClellan	Oscillator	29	24
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	395	240
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	49.5	50.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	30.5	29.5
	AAII -Bull :wed.	48.9	40.6
	Bear	17.2	30.8
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	12/5.	7/7.
CEOinsider	selling	30:1	18:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1426	1888
3-box rev	Bullish%-	68	..63buy
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(4B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(1.9B)	2.6B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.		269B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.		615/262/178
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.27%	0.25%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.13M	5.04M

YEAR END WHIMPER:

2012-01-02T13:06:00.000-08:00

With the S&P 500 ending EXACTLY the same as the year before -1257.6 - it signified the boring end to 2011; many of the Indicators regressed to the mean on low Volume, with the VIX at 23. Some relative extremes did include the Inv.Intell. Bulls at 50+%; my records show a 62.9% high in Dec. of '04. AAII Bulls jumped to 40% - must be the champagne! A small number of funds flowed out of equity funds into MMFs, but the ETFs remained almost unchanged month/month.
Here are closing numbers for 2011:

Date>		12/30/2011	12/23/2011
Indices:	DJIA	12217	12294
	NAZ	2605	2618
	SPX	1257	1265
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs)	2.2/4.6	3.8/7.7
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.10	2.03
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	67	63
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	23.4	20.7
	Advance/Dec-NYSE	1218/1896	2577/587
	Weekly Net:	-678	1990
	Cumulative:	125267	125945
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	295/72	293/146
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	92/161	111/257
McClellan	Oscillator	24	48
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	240	134
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	50.5	48.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	29.5	30.5
	AAII -Bull :wed.	40.6	33.7
	Bear	30.8	28.2
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	7/7.	0/12.
CEOinsider	selling	18:1	10:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1888	1888
3-box rev	Bullish%-	63buy	61
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	1 wk lag
MMF flows	Change in $B	2.6B	14.2B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.	269B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.	615/262/178
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.25%	0.29%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.04M	5.06M

SANTA CLAUS RALLY:

2011-12-26T13:40:00.000-08:00

This week is traditionally the week for the Santa Claus rally and the Mother of all rallies (in his 40 years) that Tom Demark predicted (offset a couple weeks). Also notable are the technically high probability events ( recently negated by Fed intervention, etc.) are the January Effect of small cap stocks and CEF (closed-end funds), such as munis, that get sold off in December, only to rally in January - something that is observable if not actionable.
Indicators are mean reverted, except for the McClellan Oscillator near its high border of 50, and bull/bear newsletters approaching complacency - so we could have a hiccup on the way higher. With markets barely even from a year ago, and even a decade ago, you might want to check out my other blog: http://ditmcalls.blogspot.com for safer yet much more rewarding strategy, or just an alternative to zero interest rates in CDs, MMFs, etc.
Here are the Indicators for last week:

Date>		12/23/2011	12/16/2011
Indices:	DJIA	12294	11866
	NAZ	2618	2555
	SPX	1265	1219
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs)	3.8/7.7	5.3/9.3
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.03	1.75
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	80
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	20.7	24.29
	Advance/Dec-NYSE	2577/587	813/2348
	Weekly Net:	1990	-1535
	Cumulative:	125945	123955
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	293/146	190/168
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	111/257	87/292
McClellan	Oscillator	48	-17
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	134	81
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	48.4	45.3
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	30.5	30.5
	AAII -Bull :wed.	33.7	40.2
	Bear	28.2	33.6
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	0/12.	17/19.
CEOinsider	selling	10:1	19:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1888	1889
3-box rev	Bullish%-	61	58
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(4.0B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	14.2B	.3B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.		283B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.		615/265/174
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.29%	0.23%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset	5.06M	5.78M

"OFF" DEMARK:

2011-12-19T10:02:00.000-08:00

Over the years I've heard Technical Analyst Tom Demark at TSAA meetings, Bloomberg talks (he was on their staff with his Indicator), even had dinner with him - but never quite bought into his math predictions. Two weeks ago , highly touted by Bloomberg's Adam Johnson, as being followed by Soros, SAC's Cohen, et.al., when his bullish prediction lined up with my observations, I forecasted a seasonal rally.
Tom's prediction: 1330-45 on the SPX by the 21st of Dec. did seem pretty outlandish, and now - two days away, with the SPX at 1212, it would take a Xmas miracle to get there, although a yearend rally is likely (The Santa Claus rally is actually between Xmas and New Year's).
Other than the CBOE put/call ratio at 80, no other Indicator is at an extreme, this past low-volume week:

Date>		12/16/2011	12/9/2011
Indices:	DJIA	11866	12184
	NAZ	2555	2646
	SPX	1219	1255
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs)	5.3/9.3	4.4/8.3
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	1.75	1.89
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	80	77
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	24.29	26.38
	Advance/Dec-NYSE	813/2348	1876/1269
	Weekly Net:	-1535	607
	Cumulative:	123955	125490
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	190/168	239/44
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	87/292	110/147
McClellan	Oscillator	-17	16
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	81	237
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	45.3	47.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	30.5	29.5
	AAII -Bull :wed.	40.2	38.6
	Bear	33.6	34.8
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	17/19.	11/34.
CEOinsider	selling	19:1	40:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1889	1882
3-box rev	Bullish%-	58	61
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	1 wk lag
MMF flows	Change in $B	.3B	25.3B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.	283B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.	615/265/174
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.23%	0.23%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset	5.78M
	CommHedg

OVERFISHING:

2011-12-12T11:28:00.000-08:00

Days like today (down 240 points on the DJIA) only further the idea that the sharks (HFTs, Institutional Traders, et.al) are driving the small fish out of the water -only to fight among themselves. In the matrix below we see that equity mutual fund outflows have steadily occurred since April 22 without exception, and money market inflows are again happening -after the scare about dangerous European securities being invested in.

The new format below, not as eye-appealing, but with more data, now shows NASD to NYSE Volume and ratio (NASD being speculative); also shown is the weekly Adv./Dec. on the NYSE with my cumulative totals.The only real negatives this week were the AAII bull/bear reverted to more Bulls, and CEO Insider Selling leaped to 40:1. Finally, the ETF equity funds increased 20% month over month, to $615M.

Date>		12/2/2011	12/9/2011
Indices:	DJIA	12019	12184
	NAZ	2626	2646
	SPX	1244	1255
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs)	5.3/9.1	4.4/8.3
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	1.72	1.89
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	77
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	27.5	26.38
	Advance/Dec-NYSE	2698/479	1876/1269
	Weekly Net:	2219	607
	Cumulative:	124883	125490
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	258/120	239/44
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	95/229	110/147
McClellan	Oscillator	-2	16
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	176	237
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	44.2	47.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	30.5	29.5
	AAII -Bull :wed.	33	38.6
	Bear	39.4	34.8
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	…4/12	11/34.
CEOinsider	selling	11:1	40:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1862	1882
3-box rev	Bullish%-	58	61
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	(6.7B)	1 wk lag
MMF flows	Change in $B	6.1B	25.3B
MargDebt-mkt down 22% 1 year after top (300M)	monthly OCT.	283B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.	615/265/174
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.26%	0.23%

RALLYTIME?:

2011-12-05T08:26:00.000-08:00

Last week's pre-Xmas gift in the markets sent most Indicators into the median area; however, the AAII bull/bear ratio (one of the better Indicators) is still inverted for a seasonal upswing.
Monthly ETF flows show a big swing into Equities -
Here are the numbers:

Date>			11/25/2011	12/2/2011
Indices:	DJIA		11231	12019
	NAZ		2441	2626
	SPX		1158	1244
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs)		3.1/6.3	5.3/9.1
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.03	1.72
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE		69	61
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		34.47	27.5
	Advance/Dec-NYSE		na	2698/479
	Weekly Net:		"	2219
	Cumulative:		"	124883
Weekly	NYSE hi/low		"	258/120
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l		"	95/229
McClellan	Oscillator		-98	-2
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000		296	176
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues		47.4	44.2
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs		32.6	30.5
	AAII -Bull :wed.		32.7	33
	Bear		38.3	39.4
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k		na	…4/12
CEOinsider	selling		7:1	11:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon		1854	1862
3-box rev	Bullish%-		50	58
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows		(.1B)	1 wk lag
MMF flows	Change in $B		1B	6.1B
MargDebt-mkt down 22% 1 year after top (300M)	monthly	Sept:		283B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$	Sept:		615/265/174
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation			0.28%	0.26%

NEW & DEPROVED SENTIMENT TABLE:

2011-11-28T13:12:00.000-08:00

Still working on the matrix transfer, but the data is updated.
One of my DITM blog readers kindly shared a DITM-style website, for those interested:
tknight@fullyinformed.com
Additionally, the Gabelli ETF - GDV- also does a nice job, with a 3+% mgmt fee. I also listed 2 trades I did today, ex-dividend tomorrow.
Sentiment Indicators pretty much backed off, despite the ugly Thanksgiving week; except for the reliable McClellan Oscillator at negatve 98 - a huge BUY signal that proved true today. Although the Inv.Intell. numbers seem stale (from the week before), the AAII inverted, with more Bears again; and the Insider Selling dropped precipitously last week.

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	11231	11796	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2441	2572	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1158	1215	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	69	80	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	34.47	32.0	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	(98)	(40)	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	296	650	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	47.4	47.4	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	32.6	32.6?	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	32.7	41.9	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	38.3	31.00	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(.1B)
Money Market Flows	1B	6.4B
Baltic Dry Index:	1854	1846	11700	663
Bullish %:	50	65	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	7:1	30:1	235:1	2.4:1

INTRADE WE TRUST:

2011-11-21T10:06:00.000-08:00

The great Irish betting website -Intrade.com has the odds of the Stupercommittee doing its job at 8% today.
As you can see below, Google's googling of my Indicator matrix has created some problems, resulting in my printing the Excel sheet itself, with a couple more stats.

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	11796	12153	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2572	2678	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1215	1263	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	80	73	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	32.0	30.0	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	(40)	38	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	650	747	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	47.4	44.2	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	32.6	34.7	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	41.9	44.7	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	31.0	24.6	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(3.7B)
Money Market Flows	6.4B	16B
Baltic Dry Index:	1840	1817	11700	663
Bullish %:	65	72	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	30:1	34:1	235:1	2.4:1

NOW WE'RE GETTING NOWHERE:

2011-11-14T08:52:00.000-08:00

The closing price of the S&P 500 on Dec.31 of 2010 was 1,257 - as of this morning, the SPX is again: 1,257, despite a volatile year. Something like 88 trading days have seen triple-digit swings YTD. Dividends anyone?
The last time the AAII Bull/Bear ratio was spread this wide (the Bears 20 points below the Bulls) was July 15 week. A week later the DJIA dropped 2,000 points. Two other favorite indicators of mine - the McClellan Oscillator and CBOE Equity put/call ratio - are also getting toppy; as is the Bullish %.
Tom McClellan has kindly offered to share with us (in the upcoming TSAA Review) the correlation he showed on Bloomberg last week of the Euro$ Commitment of Traders vs. the SPX - offset 1 full year. His prediction is a bar bell UP for the first and last part of 2012 and sideways during the summer months.
Here are the Sentiment numbers:

Date>		10/28/2011	11/4/2011	11/11/2011	7Yr.HI	LOW
Indices:	DJIA	12234	11983	12153	14093	6626
	NAZ	2737	2686	2678	2861	1114
	SPX	1285	1253	1263	1561	683
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs)	5.5/10.4	5.3/10.0	4.4/9.2
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	1.89	1.89	2.09	2.3	1.59
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	59	76	73	104.11/08	42
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	24.5	30.1	30	90	8.8
	Advance/Dec-NYSE	2679/492	1023/2119	1558/1592
	Weekly Net:	2187	-1096	-34
	Cumulative:	125585	124489	124455	127929	71464
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	229/38	113/57	154/73	950	18
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	153/98	87/139	89/159
McClellan	Oscillator	77	22	38	108-1/09	-100 -10/08
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	546	653	747	1568-6/03	-1514
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	40	43.2	44.2	62.9-12/04	22.2-10/08
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	37.9	36.8	34.7	54.4-10/08	15.6
	AAII -Bull :wed.	43	40.2	44.7	(12/10)63.3
	Bear	25	29.6	24.6	70.3(3/09)	16.4
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	12/(10)	3/15.	n/aHoliday
CEOinsider	selling	29:1	35:1	34:1	235:1	.2.1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	2153	1817	1840	11700	663
3-box rev	Bullish%-	77	74	72	88	2

HALLOWE'EN "FREQ" SHOW:

2011-11-07T09:16:00.000-08:00

High Frequency Traders (HFTs) have caused the highest correlation among stocks and sectors in decades, negating much of both Fundamental and Technical Analysis. This was shown in the October rally where shorts were dashing to cover everything pinned on the edgy European situation. Sentiment still has predictive value, especially my favorite ones: McClellan Oscillator, Bullish %, and CBOE put/call ratio - all divining the rally.
This week extremes include the put/call ratio , high, at 76 (Bullish), but the Bullish % and Insider Selling also high (Bearish). Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	11983	12234	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2686	2737	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1253	1285	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	76	59	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	30.1	24.5	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	22	77	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	653	546	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	43.2	40.0	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	36.8	37.9	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	40.2	43.0	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	29.6	25.0	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(3.2B)
Money Market Flows	(12B)	(0)
Baltic Dry Index:	1817	2153	11700	663
Bullish %:	74	77	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	35:1	29:1	235:1	2.4:1

UNDER THE COUNTER; "BEAR"-LY BELOW:

2011-10-31T11:04:00.000-07:00

According to my records of weekly closes, the Nasdaq is only 4.3% below its all-time highs of the last decade; the SPX down 17.7% and the DJIA 13.2%. Whether the NAZ can make new highs depends on the usual year-end rally and the upcoming Bullish 6-months cycle (Nov. to Apr.). The Election year of a Presidential (4-year Kinchen) cycle is usually slightly up. Beyond that, Martin Pring's Lost Decade is still the dominant cycle, echoing Japan's previous markets.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	12234	11808	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2737	2637	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1285	1238	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	59	64	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	24.5	31.3	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	77	69	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	546	173	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	40.0	35.8	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	37.9	41.0	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	43.0	36.0	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	25.0	34.6	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(3.5B)
Money Market Flows	0	(2B)
Baltic Dry Index:	2153	2161	11700	663
Bullish %:	77	63	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	29:1	60:1	235:1	2.4:1

TWIST AND SHOUT! :

2011-10-24T10:12:00.000-07:00

While the Fed does the Twist with Zero interest rates impoverishing prudent investors while banks prosper, Occupy Wall St. shouts displeasure (37% of those polled agree with them). Uncle Ben predicted that the QEs would raise the stock market, but failed to mention the prices of oil, food, etc. that the average citizen had to buy, while receiving negative interest after Inflation (2 1/2%), taxes (going up soon), and a weakening $.
The year-end rally has begun, according to various cycles, but could become sticky around the current level (Jan., Mar., and Jun. lows/Support).
Last week imitated the new PBS TV program Red/Green on my charts - a rarity in Volatility. Disappointing was that the Nasdaq (which indicates Bullish speculation) did not rise along with the DJ and SPX. Its New Highs/Lows also remain negative as well.
Although the McClellan Summation made its first positive reading since last July ( positive breakthrough), the Oscillator remains overbought at +69. Another interesting number is the Insider Selling of Key Officers - it has jumped from a record low of 3:1, two weeks ago, through 30:1 to 60:1. Early Christmas shopping?
AND NOW FOR A COMMERCIAL:
Readers who follow my 3-year testing of my Optimal DITM covered call strategy on http://ditmcalls.blogspot.com are advised that after 25 years of managing substantial family money (3 with DITM), I have decided to take on a few clients (under the SEC minimum), since although DITM seems like a simple strategy, people have asked me at various lectures and booksignings to manage it for them. More details are available at the blog or brentleonard59@gmail.com if interested.
Here are the numbers from last week:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	11808	11644	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2637	2667	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1238	1224	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	64	66	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	31.3	28	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	69	80	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	173	(74)	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	35.8	34.4	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	41.0	46.3	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	36.0	39.8	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	34.6	36.4	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(5.9B)
Money Market Flows	(2B)	5B
Baltic Dry Index:	2161	2155	11700	663
Bullish %:	63	55	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	60:1	30:1	235:1	2.4:1

PRICE-LESS:

2011-10-17T09:05:00.000-07:00

Of my two trips to wonderful downtown Sunnyvale last week, the one Saturday to hear Price Headley talk for 5 hours on Technical Analysis and Metastock indicators - I believe Price used to work for Bernie Schaeffer, the Sentiment guru, before becoming one of the rising stars in market analysis- was by far the most worthwhile.
The Thursday event with Stan Ehrlich, despite his years of experience and accomplishments, was a non-event. I would recommend the reader to check out BigTrends.com for Price's information. At the beginning of the talk he polled the audience of @ 100 how it viewed the 1-month, 6-month and 1-year time frames. At the break, the results were revealed to be most Bullish for all three -with predictions of 1249, 1441, and 1550 on the S&P 500, respectively - I, contrarily, was not among the last two, sharing Martin Pring's Lost Decade scenario for a few more years - hence my DITM strategy (see ditmcalls.blogspot.com if unfamiliar).
Speaking of Sentiment, I was surprised Sunday night to see the futures quite positive for Monday's opening, but overnight they slipped into strong negative territory - no doubt due (not) to European uncertainty by the media. The signal I saw for a short term overbought condition was a plus 80 on the McClellan Oscillator - a very reliable Indicator.
Especially after such a strong runup last week. Volume was quite weak on the upturn, and several Bullish Indicators regressed to the mean last week.In fact the Inv.Intell. ratio showed more Bulls than Bears for the first time in over a month. The Bullish % of stocks on a Buy signal leapt from 29 to 55 on the Pt.& Fig. chart, and Insider Selling also jumped from a super low 3:1 to 30:1
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	11644	11103	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2667	2479	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1224	1155	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	66	74	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	28	36	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	80	9	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	(74)	(386)	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	34.4	34.4	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	46.35.2	45.2	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	39.8	35.2	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	36.4	45.7	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(4.2B)
Money Market Flows	(3B)	5B
Baltic Dry Index:	2155	2000	11700	663
Bullish %:	55	29	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	30:1	3:1	235:1	2.4:1

IT NEVER RAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA - IT POURS !:

2011-10-10T17:07:00.000-07:00

Back from vacation, where the weather was as volatile as the stock market, I was happy to see little damage to my DITM covered call strategy, made whole by today's rally. Although the VIX came off the 4 handle down to 36, the CBOE equity put/call ratio zoomed up to 74 - good for the market (as we saw today). NYSE new highs to lows were an incredible 33 to 1,296; 23/947 on the OTC. Both newsletter surveys - Inv.Intell. and AAII remained inverted, with more Bears. Insider selling to buying was a lowly 3:1 ratio. Money actually went into MMFs for the first time in a month; monthly data on ETFs showed money coming out of equity and international funds -level in bonds. The 2010 support level on the SPX (S&P500) held at 1100 -now trying to break resistance at 1200.

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	11103	10913	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2479	2415	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1155	1131	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	74	72	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	36	43	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	9	na	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	(386)	(na)	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	34.4	37.6	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	45.2	40.9	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	35.2	32.5	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	45.7	46.8	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(5.7B)
Money Market Flows	5.0B	(1.7B)
Baltic Dry Index:	2000	na	11700	663
Bullish %:	29	22	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	3:1	na	235:1	2.4:1

1,000 POINTS OF DARK!:

2011-09-26T11:51:00.000-07:00

Talk about mood swings! The last 2 weeks have seen intraday swings of nearly 1,000 DJIA points, mostly on European news - today's big upswing is due to more great news from them - LEVERAGE of CMBSs to solve the debt problem - why didn't we think of that before?
While most sentiment indicators are stuck in "eyes in the headlights" of the Sept.-Oct. period, equity mutual funds have seen losses of $75B the past 6 months - a good contrarian sign. Exceptions include week-to-week swings on the McClellan Oscillator, from plus 47 to minus 42 -pretty much my entire bounded range, now indicating (today's) market rise - at least short term; i.e. end-of-quarter. Although new highs to new lows are 1:12 on both the NYSE and NASD, up-down stocks (A/D) swung from plus 1318(net) to minus 2431.
Bull/bear surveys remain inverted (Bullish FOR the market), with the AAII 25 vs. 40; and insider selling is down to 10:1, hardly climactic. My recently followed indicator - Commitment of Traders- finally show small traders net short for the past 4 weeks, although large traders have been short for months (smart money).
As seen below, my matrix of indicators has resurfaced after I was sabotaged by googledocs; thanks much to the able help of my expert tech person in Florida. If anyone wants very reasonable and experienced (30+ years, including NASA) online help, please contact him at :gort3ster@gmail.com. I guarantee he is much less than the recent quote I got elsewhere at $125/hour.

Here is the matrix:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	10771	11509	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2483	2622	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1136	1216	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	73	69	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	41	31	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	(42)	47	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	(335)	(205)	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	37.6	35.5	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	39.8	40.9	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	25.3	30.5	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	48.0	41.3	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(2.7B)
Money Market Flows	(11.8B)	(16.4B)
Baltic Dry Index:	1907	1838	11700	663
Bullish %:	35	51	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	10:1	10:1	235:1	2.4:1

CONVENTIONAL STUPIDITY:

2011-09-19T11:42:00.000-07:00

As everyone knows by now, unemployment is at record high levels, especially for young people, and getting a job right out of college is very difficult - and the financial sector is even worse. Barron's magazine reports that a survey was done on Harvard MBAs over the past 20 years: when 30% head for Wall St. after graduation, the market invariably tanks - when only 10% do so, the market rallies. Despite today's job outlook, the percentage is 37!

Last week's 5 up days was likely a countertrend rally; from July's high, the SPX has dropped (leg A) into a Flag formation (upward trend channel, showing a possible H&S top within a greater H&S top) - if leg C down equals leg A, we can see the market drop to below 1000 by 2012 (also a Pt.& Fig. target). The global economy and political standoffs indicate this scenario.

Sentiment Indicators, however (thanks to last week's rally) seem benign: the CBOE put/call ratio is down to 69; the VIX at 31. The reliable McClellan Oscillator jumped from a minus 34 to a plus 47, indicating a short selloff (today). On the positive front, the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio has joined the AAII one in being inverted, which is contrarily Bullish; and the Commitment of Traders shows the small trader finally getting Bearish on Sept.2, possibly late to the party.

Despite the weekly rally, New Lows bested New Highs 5:1 in the NYSE and NASD, not a broad rally. CEO Insider trading is still low on the selling side, and money flew out of MMFs, but not into stocks.

GREECE - A CAR CRASH IN SLOW MOTION:

2011-09-12T08:28:00.000-07:00

As Europe brings down the western global economies, the U.S. stock market continues to flirt with a Bear market - something that has happened no more than 2 times per decade since 1900 and no less than 1. Last week showed rather tame indicators, thanks to the up-down nature of the Holiday week. The CBOE put/call ratio did rise to 75 from 67; and the VIX from 33 to 38. The McClellan Oscillator is -34, which is good to see if you are Bullish. Also, the AAII sentiment inverted again to 30 Bulls/40 Bears -a good sign. Money continues to flow into MMFs (probably from Europe, which doesn't trust its own paper), but not into equities.

My Google docs. seems to have contracted a bug and will not let me reproduce the template this issue. As a bonus, however, my www.ditmcalls.blogspot.com blog outlines a fairly safe way to play Uncle Ben's new Twist strategy for a 9% annualized return.