Market Sentiment - A Contrarian View

FOR IT'S A LONG, LONG TIME...

2012-05-29T08:19:00.000-07:00

From May to November - the historical 6-month bi-cycle is skewed heavily in favor of the November to May cycle (thanks mostly to Sept. & Oct.), so the current one can get choppy at best.
The extreme sentiment readings of the previous week finally paid off today, with the DJIA up 150 - hopefully a 1st-of-the-month rally will ensue and wipe out May's losses.
Weekly net Advance/Declines swung from minus 2609 to a plus 1805 this week; the CBOE put/call ratio dropped from a Bullish (On the market) 89 to 66. The oversold McClellan Oscillator went from a record minus 110 to minus 6, yet AAII Bull/Bear ratio remains inverted, and Insider Selling has dried up for now.
For more explanation of the Indicators below, please see my upcoming Examiner.com column today:

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

I have also used the column to make readers aware of the June investor meetings - technical, options, and beginning investors. You can get these and 1 or 2 weekly columns by clicking on "SUBSCRIBE".

Here are the numbers:

Date>		5/25/2012	5/18/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12454	12369
	NAZ	2837	2778
	SPX	1317	1295
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	8.6/3.9	10.1/4.7
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.21	2.15
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	89
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	21.8	25.1
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	2495/690	297/2906
	Weekly Net:	1805	-2609
	Cumulative:	131099	129294
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	73/175	90/259
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	75/257	92/330
McClellan	Oscillator	-6	-110
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	-470	-323
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	38.3	39.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	26.6	22.3
	AAII -Bull :wed.	30.5	23.6
	Bear	38.7	46
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	1/(23)	3/(15)
CEOinsider	selling	7:1	13:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1141	1138
3-box rev	Bullish%-	52	52
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(3.4B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	1.3B	(5.4B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	299B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ .	697/281/209
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.30%	0.31%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.42	5.47

1,000 POINTS OF DARK:

2012-05-21T09:29:00.001-07:00

After falling 1,000 points from its 22% runup high, the DJIA has corrected a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and nearly to the Pt. & Fig. maximum level. This record decline (12 losing days in the past 14), the most since 1974, has created a much oversold condition. Judging from a strong Monday, after option expiry and the annular equinox, we should see at least a bounce in the markets -possibly a summer rally.
The McClellan Oscillator hit a new multi-year low of -110 (surpassing -108), the AAII Bull/Bear ratio of postcard opinions of 23 to 46, with the Commitment of Traders on the S&P mimicking it. As I stated in my Examiner.com column (Examiner.com - search Brent Leonard) the Declines outdid the Advances 10:1. a climactic amount on the strongest Volume in weeks. Finally, the CBOE Equity put/call ratio reached 89 -another recent high. Here are the numbers:

Date>		5/18/2012	5/11/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12369	12820
	NAZ	2778	2933
	SPX	1295	1353
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	10.1/4.7	9.7/4.1
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.15	2.37
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	89	88
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	25.1	19.9
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	297/2906	1238/1937
	Weekly Net:	-2609	-699
	Cumulative:	129294	131903
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	90/259	191/144
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	92/330	163/223
McClellan	Oscillator	-110	-50
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	-323	-50
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	39.4	38.7
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	22.3	20.4
	AAII -Bull :wed.	23.6	25.4
	Bear	46	42.1
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	3/(15)	3/(6)
CEOinsider	selling	13:1	30:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1138	1138
3-box rev	Bullish%-	52	59
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(2.4B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(5.4B)	1.2B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.31%	0.31%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.47	5.4

BELATED BLOG:

2012-05-17T05:59:00.000-07:00

Back from a 4 city vacation with family and friends, here are the results from last week's Sentiment readings:
Markets down 6% so far; CBOE put/call ratio up to 88 with the McClellan Oscillator @ minus 50 - both Bullish. The AAII Bull/Bear still inverted (more Bears), also Bullish.

Date>		5/11/2012	5/4/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12820	13038
	NAZ	2933	2956
	SPX	1353	1369
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	9.7/4.1	9.0/4.1
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.37	2.20
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	88	69
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	19.9	19.2
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1238/1937	1023/2149
	Weekly Net:	-699	-1126
	Cumulative:	131903	132602
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	191/144	363/82
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	163/223	281/151
McClellan	Oscillator	-50	-1
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	-50	276
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	38.7	43
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	20.4	20.4
	AAII -Bull :wed.	25.4	35.4
	Bear	42.1	36.1
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	3/(6)	11/(6)
CEOinsider	selling	30:1	46:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1138	1156
3-box rev	Bullish%-	59	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	(2.4B)	1 wk lag
MMF flows	Change in $B	1.2B	(14.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.31%	0.27%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.4	5.1

PARTIAL POST:

2012-05-04T13:08:00.000-07:00

Due to leaving early on vacation there is only a partial posting of the Sentiment Indicators this week (and a late posting next week). Ugly Friday after bad unemployment numbers and a French election Sunday. Inv.Intell. Bull/Bear numbers (see Examiner.com column for clearer explanation - Search the site for Brent Leonard- are more complacent than ever, seeing how they are released Tuesday and Wednesday (with AAIIs).
Here are the partials:

Date>		5/4/2012	4/27/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13038	13228
	NAZ	2956	3069
	SPX	1369	1403
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).		8.6/3.9
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.21
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE		59
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		16.3
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2251/923
	Weekly Net:		1328
	Cumulative:		133728
Weekly	NYSE hi/low		308/102
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l		238/125
McClellan	Oscillator	-1	44
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	276	193
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	43	41.9
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	20.4	23.7
	AAII -Bull :wed.	35.4	27.6
	Bear	36.1	37.4
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k		2/(8)
CEOinsider	selling		58:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1156	1116
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(1.6B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(14.8B)	(.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	MAR:	295B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ .	MAR:	704/286/202
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation			0.27%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg		5.3

THE BIG CASINO:

2012-04-30T09:19:00.001-07:00

Next week's Sentiment blog will occur early (Friday) due to my vacationing in Lake Tahoe. The past week, due to the rally back with increasing volatility, there is a mixed picture. My cumulative Adv./Decl. is at a new high, indicative of strong buying, yet the CEO Insider Selling shot to a 58:1 ratio over Buyers (albeit on low Volume).
The previous week ( the "Selling" week) saw $8.7B come out of Equity funds, although flows from all ETFs for March (see bottom of table) - domestic and foreign equity, and bond ETFs- were flat. Margin buying increased slightly, per ICI.
The AAII Bull/Bear ratio became more inverted - a bullish sign. And very short term (as we see today) the McClellan Oscillator rose to +44, near my +50 line.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		4/27/2012	4/20/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13228	13029
	NAZ	3069	3000
	SPX	1403	1378
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	8.6/3.9	8.6/4.0
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.21	2.15
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	59	63
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	16.3	17.4
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	2251/923	2036/1136
	Weekly Net:	1328	900
	Cumulative:	133728	132400
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	308/102	208/93
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	238/125	194/120
McClellan	Oscillator	44	-8
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	193	139
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	41.9	44.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	23.7	23.7
	AAII -Bull :wed.	27.6	31.2
	Bear	37.4	33.8
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	2/(8)	8/(5)
CEOinsider	selling	58:1	12:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1116	972
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	74
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(8.7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(.5B)	.3B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	MARCH	$295B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ .	MARCH	704/286/202
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.27%	0.28%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.3	5.3

WMDs: WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION:

2012-04-23T09:01:00.001-07:00

Barron's magazine this week reported the Big Money Poll Result for the upcoming months - even these geniuses can prove to be a Contrarian's delight. Last Fall the number of Bulls was a lowly 52% - as we now know, the market rallied some 24% since then; the previous Spring the number was 59%, just when the when the DJIA was poised to drop 800 points in May, and 1600 points in June. The Poll number is now 55% Bullish (4% VERY).
Barron's also reported the oft-quoted statistic that since WWII the Nov. to May cycle has produced a profit on $100 to nearly $10,000; while its complementary cycle (May to Nov.) would have netted $99, or a $1 LOSS. If today is any indication.....
The Indicators are, on the whole, rather benign with the Bullish exception of a reversal in the AAII Bull/Bear ratio to 31 Bulls to 33 Bears; also the number of Insider Sales to Buys dropped precipitously, and the MMFs actually had a small Inflow for the first time on many months.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		4/20/2012	4/13/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13029	12849
	NAZ	3000	3011
	SPX	1378	1370
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	8.6/4.0	7.7/4.0
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.15	1.93
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	66
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	17.4	19.6
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	2036/1136	915/2260
	Weekly Net:	900	-1345
	Cumulative:	132400	131500
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	208/93	111/109
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	194/120	113/142
McClellan	Oscillator	-8	-46
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	139	231
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	44.1	48.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	23.7	21.5
	AAII -Bull :wed.	31.2	28.1
	Bear	33.8	41.6
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	8/(5)	2/(1)
CEOinsider	selling	12:1	42:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	972	928
3-box rev	Bullish%-	74	sell76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(1.5B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	.3B	(6.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly FEB..
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ FEB..
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.28%	0.27%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.3	5.3

SELL IN MAY:

2012-04-16T09:42:00.000-07:00

A recent iteration of the May-Nov. rule (6-month cycle) showed if a $100 were invested in the Oct.to May cycle, the profit since shortly after WWII would be just under $10,000 - if the complement cycle were used to invest, the result would be $99 ( a $1 loss). Something to think about these days - a reason to look into the DITM covered call strategy, with the Weapons of Math Destruction looming!
As expected, investors (those few who remain after the 70% artificial intelligence crowd gets through with them) got a bit defensive in attitude: the CBOE Equity put/call ratio rose from 60 to 66 the past week; AAII Bears rose hugely from 27% to 41%! Bulls dropped 10 points to 28.
Dollars continue to exit Money Market Funds (no surprise there) but also from equity funds. Most are still going into bonds, some ETFs. Today's DJIA rally is no surprise after the selloff drove the McClellan Oscillator down to -46 -just off my -50 delimiter.
Here are the weekly numbers:

Date>		4/13/2012	4/5/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12849	13060
	NAZ	3011	3080
	SPX	1370	1398
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	7.7/4.0	6.9/3.1
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	1.93	2.23
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	60
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	19.6	16.7
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	915/2260	1139/1999
	Weekly Net:	-1345	-860
	Cumulative:	131500	132845
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	111/109	246/68
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	113/142	197/107
McClellan	Oscillator	-46	-25
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	231	540
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	48.4	52.7
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	21.5	21.5
	AAII -Bull :wed.	28.1	38.2
	Bear	41.6	27.8
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	2/(1)	.6/2
CEOinsider	selling	42:1	44:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	928	931
3-box rev	Bullish%-	sell76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(4.3B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(6.1B)	(15.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly FEB..
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ FEB..
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.27%	0.32%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.3	5.2

BETTER LATE THAN NEVER:

2012-04-09T12:04:00.001-07:00

Sentiment Indicators warned of toppiness in the markets a few weeks ago with Orange Alert, and Tom DeMark of Bloomie nailed it on March 26. Based on several reasons, my guess of 2012 was a Bar Bell approach, with the 1st and 4th Q rising, and the middle sloppy. 6-month, 4-year Presidential and Decennial cycles are the main deciders. So good so far.

Buy signals are not seen nor expected in the near future - several Indicators are still at Bearish (for the market) levels. the Inv.Intell. Bulls hit 52.7%, a recent high; NASD Volume increased vs. NYSE (speculative); CEO Insider Selling was cut in half, but still high at 44:1. The SPX was stretched above its 50-day MA.

For my DITM (deep-in-the-money) covered call strategy:

http://ditmcalls.blogspot.com

it has been put on hold while awaiting a bottom entry level. While it is not the best short term strategy for the recent Bull run, it has increased the safety cushion on existing holdings.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		4/5/2012	3/30/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13060	13212
	NAZ	3080	3091
	SPX	1398	1408
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	6.9/3.1	8.5/4.1
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.23	2.07
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	66
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	16.7	15.5
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1139/1999	1723/1443
	Weekly Net:	-860	280
	Cumulative:	132845	133705
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	246/68	320/61
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	197/107	351/57
McClellan	Oscillator	-25	40
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	540	664
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	52.7	50.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	21.5	22.6
	AAII -Bull :wed.	38.2	42.5
	Bear	27.8	25.5
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	.6/2	5/(2)
CEOinsider	selling	44:1	89:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	931	930
3-box rev	Bullish%-		83
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(3.5B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(15.2B)	(17.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly FEB..		289B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ FEB..		691/291/200
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.32%	0.34%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.2	5

IS APRIL THE CRUELEST MONTH t.s.elliot?

2012-04-02T08:36:00.000-07:00

According to Barron's magazine, a year ago analysts estimated Q1 of 2012 would be 16%; revised estimates are .7 to 3.1%. And the ratio of earnings pronouncements at 3:1 is the highest since Q1 of 2009 - and we know what happened in March. Transports, the Dow Theory benchmark, was only up 5% last Q, but it is opined that Coal was the reason.
As for the Sentiment Indicators, the Insider Selling to Buying ratio keeps increasing ( but it did that in Q2 of 2009 - the start of the Bull market). Last week was 89:1. Money is flowing out of MMFs at an increasing rate, but mostly going into Bond funds, with equity ETFs increasing slightly.
Large traders, from the Commitment of Traders table, have reversed their multi-month position and are now long the S&P futures, while Small traders are now short. Complacency rules in the newsletter surveys, but toppiness is seen in the McClellan Oscillator and the Bullish % remains high (overbot).
Be sure to check out my new Examiner.com for local events and stock market news.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		3/30/2012	3/22/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13212	13080
	NAZ	3091	3067
	SPX	1408	1397
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	8.5/4.1	7.5/3.7
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.07	2.03
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	57
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	15.5	14.8
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1723/1443	1393/1765
	Weekly Net:	280	-372
	Cumulative:	133705	133425
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	320/61	235/40
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	351/57	293/58
McClellan	Oscillator	40	38
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	664	765
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	50.1	48.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	22.6	23.6
	AAII -Bull :wed.	42.5	42.4
	Bear	25.5	27.8
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	5/(2)	10/(4)
CEOinsider	selling	89:1	83:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	930	874
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	83
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(1.8B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(17.2B)	(15.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly FEB..	289B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ FEB..	691/291/200
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.34%	0.37%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg			5	4.9

BASSETTI THE UN"BEAR"ABLE:

2012-03-26T10:46:00.000-07:00

In this weekend's Barron's magazine, friend, colleague and fellow Adjunct Professor at GGU, W.H,C, "Charles" Bassetti was quoted in the Market Watch section as a major Bull - a departure from the times I've followed his (mostly correct) forecasts. This is in the camp of Dr. Hank Pruden (also GGU) with his forecast awhile back approaching 20,000 DJIA.
As a follower of the 18-year cycle (from 1790), I respectfully disagree, as I buy into the Lost Decade (double) of Martin Pring. With the overhangs of public and private debt (much higher than 1929) and a stubborn unemployment, my view is quite choppy until at least 2018 ( a Fibonacci number from 1929). What would kick out my view would be a hyperinflation trashing of the Dollar before then, where we break out the wheelbarrows from Germany.
Another prediction - this from Tom Demark on Bloomberg (for whom he has been the chief Technical Analysts for years) - today marks the top for awhile.
Predictions aside, after several Sentiment Indicators previously reached extreme highs (Bearish), they have currently receded: Nasdaq Volume vis-a-vis NYSE (speculative), the CBOE put/call ratio; high Money Market Outflows - although mostly into Bonds. One standout below is the Key Insider Selling ratio, after doubling last week, it rose again to 80:1 sellers. These are officers who should know what their company is doing, but they were egregiously wrong in the Spring of '09 - just as the roaring Bull was starting.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		3/22/2012	3/15/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13080	13232
	NAZ	3067	3055
	SPX	1397	1404
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	7.5/3.7	8.4/4.9
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.03	1.71
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	57	55
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	14.8	14.5
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1393/1765	1777/1395
	Weekly Net:	-372	382
	Cumulative:	133425	133797
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	235/40	355/39
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	293/58	330/60
McClellan	Oscillator	38	-13
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	765	891
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	48.4	43.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	23.6	26.6
	AAII -Bull :wed.	42.4	45.6
	Bear	27.8	27.2
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	10/(4)	(2)/4
CEOinsider	selling	83:1	60:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	874	824
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	83
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(2.9B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(15.5B)	(8.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.37%	0.37%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	4.9	5.39

UPGRADING THE PC:

2012-03-19T10:21:00.001-07:00

The next Sentiment blog you read will (hopefully) be from my new IT setup from this afternoon. With some tech guidance, I shall reformat the blog grid to show more detail and in better format.
Although we had the SELL spike a few weeks ago in Sentiment, things have quieted down (scarily - like when the Fed was accused of manipulating the market many months ago in the media -and by me). MMF funds are moving out, but to bonds, not equities! The CBOE put/call ratio and Volume speculation (Nas v. NY) dropped precipitously; as did the VIX - below 14. The 2-year Treas.yield spiked up to .37% (Inflation?), and the CEO Insider selling doubled to 60:1 over buyers. Too good to be true...

Date>		3/15/2012	3/8/2012
Indices:	DJIA	13232	12922
	NAZ	3055	2988
	SPX	1404	1370
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	8.4/4.9	8.3/3.7
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	1.71	2.24
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	55	68
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	14.5	17.1
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1777/1395	1667/1475
	Weekly Net:	382	192
	Cumulative:	133797	133415
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	355/39	248/46
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	330/60	177/88
McClellan	Oscillator	-13	0
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	891	912
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	43.6	47.9
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	26.6	26.6
	AAII -Bull :wed.	45.6	42.4
	Bear	27.2	29
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(2)/4	(9)/20
CEOinsider	selling	60:1	34:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	824	771
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	83
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	(1.4B)	1 wk lag
MMF flows	Change in $B	(8.2B)	(7.0B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.37%	0.33%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.39	5.23

GETTING SENTIMENTAL:

2012-03-12T11:04:00.001-07:00

The quickest way to double your money is
to fold it in half and put it back in your pocket.

Markets are still having trouble getting through resistance: triple zero (the DJIA at 13,000); the S&P 500, 1370 prior top, etc. Technically this works because people who bought there are selling to get even, and technicians are aware of this - so it is self-fulfilling.

In Wyckoff jargon, the current Trading Range is transfer of shares either from strong hands to weak (for a Distribution) or the opposite (ReAccumulation). Future direction will give the answer.

No new extremes to report, only a Regression from the recent ones - put/calls at 68; Bullish % at 83; CEO selling still high. Here are the numbers:

Date>		3/8/2012	3/1/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12922	12977..
	NAZ	2988	2976
	SPX	1370	1369
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	8.3/3.7	9.3/4.1
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.24	2.27
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	68	63
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	17.1	17.3
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1667/1475	1401/1759..
	Weekly Net:	192	-358
	Cumulative:	133415	133223
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	248/46	383/27
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	177/88	236/63
McClellan	Oscillator	0	-37
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	912	1116
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	47.9	51.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	26.6	25.5
	AAII -Bull :wed.	42.4	44.5
	Bear	29	26.8
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(9)/20	(5)/24
CEOinsider	selling	34:1	45:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	771	763
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	85
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(3.1B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(7.0B)	(13.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.33%	0.28%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.23	5.19

SAME-O, SAME-O:

2012-03-05T09:40:00.000-08:00

After a boring week ( the DJIA rose 4 points), Sentiment Indicators reflected same: most were Bearish FOR the market - Bullish %, newsletter surveys of Bulls/Bears; Insider selling still high at 45:1.
Bullish Indicators were CBOE put/call ratio, showing hedging - and the McClellan Oscillator nearing the bottom of its range, at -37. Major market indices' trendlines were broken on Friday, and continue down today.
Here are the stats:

Date>		3/1/2012	2/24/2012..
Indices:	DJIA	12977	12982
	NAZ	2976	2963
	SPX	1369	1365
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	9.3/4.1	6.9/2.9
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.27	2.38
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	66
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	17.3	17.3
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1401/1759	1790/1343
	Weekly Net:	-358	447
	Cumulative:	133223	133581
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	383/27	336/7
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	236/63	230/44
McClellan	Oscillator	-37	-6
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1116	1231
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	51.1	51.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	25.5	26.6
	AAII -Bull :wed.	44.5	43.7
	Bear	26.8	27.5
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(5)/24	(8)/30
CEOinsider	selling	45:1	91:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	763	706
3-box rev	Bullish%-	85	85
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(.3B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(13.1B)	6.2B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.28%	0.31%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.19	5.08

CEO SELLOFF:

2012-02-27T09:39:00.001-08:00

The headline number this week is the (legal) Insider Selling by key officers of corporations: 92:1 is higher than the late October 2011 selloff, where it was only 60:1. Other high numbers include the Bullish %, at 85 ( multi-year high is 88).
Coming off extremes and reverting to the mean are the newsletter surveys (AAII and I.I.), large and small traders' commitments ( large short, small traders long); although Volume remains light, the NASD to NYSE still shows speculation. NYSE new highs to lows are down slightly - 336 to 7 from 362 to 7 (same 7?). Short term bullish is the high CBOE put/call ratio, as traders hedge.
Here are the numbers for last week:

Date>		2/24/2012	2/17/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12982	12949
	NAZ	2963	2951
	SPX	1365	1361
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	6.9/2.9	9.4/3.9
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.38	2.41
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	59
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	17.3	17.8
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1790/1343	2185/972
	Weekly Net:	447	1213
	Cumulative:	133581	133134
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	336/7	362/7
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	230/44	265/44
McClellan	Oscillator	-6	-3
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1231	1278
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	51.1	54.8
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	26.6	25.8
	AAII -Bull :wed.	43.7	42.7
	Bear	27.5	26.6
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(8)/30	(7)/32
CEOinsider	selling	91:1	32:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	706	723
3-box rev	Bullish%-	85	84
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	0
MMF flows	Change in $B	6.2B	2.9B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.		290B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.31%	0.30%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.08	5.01….

EURO OR DRACHMA? A GREEK TRAGEDY:

2012-02-20T11:56:00.000-08:00

Greek fishermen have resorted to barter, using products of the sea for currency - it's called "Octupi" the Agora, or "squid" pro quo! (sorry about that).
Although we have a holiday here in the U.S., Papa-Demos (Father of the People) must address the concerns of those revolting peasants. I learned many years ago to "Watch what they DO, not what they SAY!" How much an inevitable default is factored into our market is TBD.
Meanwhile, several Sentiment/Breadth Indicators remain near recent highs, just as the markets do: the NASDAQ to NYSE Volume ratio, for one - meaning more speculation. As with most all Indicators, the public is right until the extreme, when it isn't. My cumulative Adv./Decl. number is at a record high, although the McClellan Oscillator is @ zero. The Investment Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio widened more, but still off the record. Bullish per cent, at 84, is almost at the record 88 -stocks on a BUY signal. Over the past month the margin debt has increased 10%, the same % as the decrease in NYSE short interest (covering).

At this weekend's S.F. Option meeting I had a request to resume my e-mail alert to interested persons about my blog - if you'd prefer to be delisted from this "spamming", please let me know - I can take it.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		2/17/2012	2/10/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12949	12801
	NAZ	2951	2903
	SPX	1361	1342
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	9.4/3.9	9.3/3.7
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.41	2.51
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	59	60
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	17.8	20.8
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	2185/972	1254/1900
	Weekly Net:	1213	-646
	Cumulative:	133134	131921
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	362/7	374/15
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	265/44	263/35
McClellan	Oscillator	-3	-17
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1278	1325
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	54.8	52.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	25.8	28.7
	AAII -Bull :wed.	42.7	51.6
	Bear	26.6	20.2
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(7)/32	(13)/41
CEOinsider	selling	32:1	55:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	723	695
3-box rev	Bullish%-	84	83
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 Wk lag	1.9B
MMF flows	Change in $B	2.9B	(.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.	290B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.30%	0.28%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg		5.01.........	4.97M

WHAT, ME WORRY?:

2012-02-13T13:36:00.000-08:00

Thanks to Friday's selloff, the week past was basically "unch". But worry clouds still abound. Indicators such as McClellan Oscillator, NYSE cum.A/D, and VIX came off extremes, while others cause concern: CEO Insider (legal) selling was a whopping 55:1; NASD to NYSE Volume was a record 2.51.One Technician on TV last week advised using Bollinger Bands on this ratio. NYSE New Lows for the week were only 15, versus 374 NHs.
Newsletter Bulls climbed higher, while the AAII Bears dropped from 25% to 20%. Bullish % is now 83% - only 5 points off its multi-year high. A reader scooped Barron's to tell me the Baltic Dry Index, which has been posting new lows lately was apparently caused by overbuilding of ships, not the global economy signal, which should be corrected shortly.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		2/10/2012	2/3/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12801	12862
	NAZ	2903	2905
	SPX	1342	1344
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	9.3/3.7	9.6/4.4
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.51	2.18
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	60
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	20.8	17.1
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	1254/1900	2496/665
	Weekly Net:	-646	1831
	Cumulative:	131921	132567
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	374/15	526/32
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	263/35	341/39
McClellan	Oscillator	-17	57
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1325	1236
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	52.1	48.9
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	28.7	29.8
	AAII -Bull :wed.	51.6	43.8
	Bear	20.2	25.1
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(13)/41	(12)/42
CEOinsider	selling	55:1	26:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	695	651
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	82
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(1.8B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(.8B)	(21B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.28%	0.24%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	4.97M	4.89

TOIL AND TRUBBLE:

2012-02-06T08:57:00.000-08:00

Recent Sentiment (and breadth) data has shown the most remarkable extremes that I can ever remember, in the 7 years or more of writing this blog! Let me count the ways:
The DJIA and S&P 500 hit all time record point gains for a January; the NASDAQ reached an 11-year high last week. The 2011 high for the SPX was 1365 - it closed Friday at 1344.

My cumulative Advance/Decline indicator continues to make new all time highs; NAZ Volume to NYSE indicates speculation; the VIX is at a relative extreme low of 17.
For only the second time in many months equity flows have increased into mutual funds, and MMF outflows were a huge $21B. Talking heads are glowing with a global economic recovery, but China is slowing, as is Europe, and the Baltic Dry Index hit a multi-year low last week at 651 -cut in half from its high.
Usually reliable Bullish % and McClellan Oscillator are also at high levels - large commodity traders are shorting, while small traders are long the SPX futures. Insider (CEO) Selling is fairly but consistently high in recent weeks. Finally, AAII Bears are coming of near record "teen" lows.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		2/3/2012	1/27/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12862	12660
	NAZ	2905	2816
	SPX	1344	1316
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs).	4.4/9.6	..4.0/9.1
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.18	2.28
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	62
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	17.1	18.5
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	2496/665	2251/905
	Weekly Net:	1831	1346
	Cumulative:	132567	130736
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	526/32	367/25
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	341/39	200/39
McClellan	Oscillator	57	47
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1236	1050
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	48.9	50
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	29.8	28.7
	AAII -Bull :wed.	43.8	48.4
	Bear	25.1	18.9
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(12)/42	(2)/16
CEOinsider	selling	26:1	28:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	651	753
3-box rev	Bullish%-	82	80
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	.8B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(21B)	(15B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.		267B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.		618/245/184
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.24%	0.22%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	4.89	4.82

REVERSAL OF FORTUNE:

2012-01-30T11:07:00.000-08:00

After a very insignificant increase in Equity Fund flows the previous week, outflows returned last week to the norm from last April. The latest monthly data of ETFs show almost no change in flows from stocks, Int'l, or bonds.
Toppiness still abounds, in speculative Volume (NASD/NYSE), McClellan Oscillator, Bullish %, and the number of Bears in both the AAII and Inv.Intell. Even Barron's cover story was about defensive strategies, using dividend stocks, and the option column is still preaching covered calls.The January Barometer and Effect are both positive, but February is usually not one of the better months - especially after a 20% run up from Oct. (5% this year alone).

Date>		1/27/2012	1/20/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12660	12720
	NAZ	2816	2786
	SPX	1316	1315
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs)	4.0/9.1	3.3/7.8
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.28	2.36
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	62	52
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	18.5	18.3
	Advance/Dec-NYSE..	2251/905	2414/730
	Weekly Net:	1346	1684
	Cumulative:	130736	129390
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	367/25	292/36
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	200/39	166/43
McClellan	Oscillator	47	52
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1050	810
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	50	50
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	28.7	29.8
	AAII -Bull :wed.	48.4	47.2
	Bear	18.9	23.6
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(2)/16	(4)/19
CEOinsider	selling	28:1	25:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	753	862
3-box rev	Bullish%-	80	78
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	(.8B)	1 wk lag
MMF flows	Change in $B	(15B)	(13B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.	267B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.	618/245/184
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.22%	0.25%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	4.82	4.89M

ORANGE ALERT:

2012-01-23T10:40:00.000-08:00

Interesting week for a rather calm stock market: the S&P500 broke up through the 1300 level to a double top from last July - Larry McMillan states that it is 3 Std Deviations above its 20-day MA, and just as Oct and Apr.'11 and Feb.'07, the OEX put/call Volume ratio was 2:1. The Baltic Dry Index broke below 1000 for the first time in 3 years, a global economic indicator. My cumulative A/D total broke to a new all-time high (overbought); the NASD to NYSE Volume (speculative) also hit a new high.US equity fund flows reversed to inflows for the first time since April 22 of last year -a multi-year high. As seen below, most indicators are Bearish FOR the markets.

Date>		1/20/2012	1/13/2012
Indices:	DJIA	12720	..12422
	NAZ	2786	..2710
	SPX	1315	1289
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs)	3.3/7.8	3.9/8.7
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.36	2.23
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	52	59
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	18.3	20.9
	Advance/Dec-NYSE	2414/730	2161/988
	Weekly Net:	1684	1173
	Cumulative:	129390	127706
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	292/36	277/50
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	166/43	153/89
McClellan	Oscillator	52	26
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	810	618
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	50	51.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	29.8	29.8
	AAII -Bull :wed.	47.2	49.1
	Bear	23.6	17.2
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	(4)/19	(9)/21
CEOinsider	selling	25:1	20:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	862	1105
3-box rev	Bullish%-	78	73
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	.75B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(13B)	11B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.25%	0.23%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	4.89M	4.96M

RALPH CLARK - R.I.P:

2012-01-15T11:44:00.000-08:00

This column is dedicated to a good friend, neighbor, and fellow investor, who passed away late last week from ALS at 81. Ralph Clark was a student of investing, at GGU and briefly with the San Francisco Bay Area Options Group. Before passing, he asked me to dispose of nearly 50 quality investment books which I intend to do at the upcoming Options monthly meeting this Saturday morning at Fort Mason, where I and other speakers will explain our experiences with my DITM investment strategy.
Last week's Sentiment numbers saw some toppy, overbought readings, creating a caution signal: my Volume ratio - NASD/NYSE is approaching a high (speculative) reading. Although only testing for a short time (2011), these levels were at previous tops in April 6, May 2, and July 22. My cum. Volume of Adv./Dec. is also toppy, going back to April. Commitment of Traders show Large Specs on the S&P going negative vs. positive for Small Specs. Most dramatic is the AAII and Inv.Intell. Bull/Bear ratios. Numbers appear below:

Date>		1/13/2012	1/6/2012
Indices:	DJIA	..12422	..12359
	NAZ	..2710	..2674
	SPX	1289	1277
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs)	3.9/8.7	3.2/6.9
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.23	2.16
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	59	63
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	20.9	20.6
	Advance/Dec-NYSE	2161/988	2213/947
	Weekly Net:	1173	1266
	Cumulative:	127706	126533
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	277/50	305/27
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	153/89	118/81
McClellan	Oscillator	26	29
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	618	395
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	51.1	49.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	29.8	30.5
	AAII -Bull :wed.	49.1	48.9
	Bear	17.2	17.2
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	21/(9)	12/5.
CEOinsider	selling	20:1	30:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1105	1426
3-box rev	Bullish%-	73	68
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	11B	(1.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.23%	0.27%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	4.96M	5.13M

JANUARY BAROMETER:

2012-01-09T12:48:00.000-08:00

As the old saying goes (Observable, but not Actionable) : So goes the first week of January - so goes the month; so goes January, so goes the year! Of course, a la the Heisenberg principle - since the year contains the month, it has a nice running start.
Sentiment Indicators are running a little hot lately - not quite calling for a reversal, but approaching overbought conditions: The VIX is down to 20; the AAII Bears dropped from 30 to under 20! MMF flows went negative for the first time since November. Bullish % is nearing a high level, where previous tops have occurred, although 88% is the highest high.
The herd-like media is finally all aflutter about zero interest rates penalizing prudent investors, and I have been asked to revisit my DITM covered call strategy at the upcoming SF Options Group meeting on Jan.21 at Fort Mason. After successfully testing this plan for nearly three years, giving several Bay Area talks and even writing a book on it, people are finally seeing the value of it - @10% annualized returns, WITH a Safety Net. If interested for a portion of one's assets, please visit brentleonard.com for more information.
Here are the Sentiment numbers:

Date>		1/6/2012	12/30/2011
Indices:	DJIA	12359	12217
	NAZ	2674	2605
	SPX	1277	1257
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs)	3.2/6.9	2.2/4.6
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.16	2.10
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	67
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	20.6	23.4
	Advance/Dec-NYSE	2213/947	1218/1896
	Weekly Net:	1266	-678
	Cumulative:	126533	125267
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	305/27	295/72
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	118/81	92/161
McClellan	Oscillator	29	24
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	395	240
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	49.5	50.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	30.5	29.5
	AAII -Bull :wed.	48.9	40.6
	Bear	17.2	30.8
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	12/5.	7/7.
CEOinsider	selling	30:1	18:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1426	1888
3-box rev	Bullish%-	68	..63buy
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(4B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(1.9B)	2.6B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.		269B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.		615/262/178
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.27%	0.25%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.13M	5.04M

YEAR END WHIMPER:

2012-01-02T13:06:00.000-08:00

With the S&P 500 ending EXACTLY the same as the year before -1257.6 - it signified the boring end to 2011; many of the Indicators regressed to the mean on low Volume, with the VIX at 23. Some relative extremes did include the Inv.Intell. Bulls at 50+%; my records show a 62.9% high in Dec. of '04. AAII Bulls jumped to 40% - must be the champagne! A small number of funds flowed out of equity funds into MMFs, but the ETFs remained almost unchanged month/month.
Here are closing numbers for 2011:

Date>		12/30/2011	12/23/2011
Indices:	DJIA	12217	12294
	NAZ	2605	2618
	SPX	1257	1265
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs)	2.2/4.6	3.8/7.7
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.10	2.03
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	67	63
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	23.4	20.7
	Advance/Dec-NYSE	1218/1896	2577/587
	Weekly Net:	-678	1990
	Cumulative:	125267	125945
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	295/72	293/146
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	92/161	111/257
McClellan	Oscillator	24	48
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	240	134
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	50.5	48.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	29.5	30.5
	AAII -Bull :wed.	40.6	33.7
	Bear	30.8	28.2
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	7/7.	0/12.
CEOinsider	selling	18:1	10:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1888	1888
3-box rev	Bullish%-	63buy	61
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	1 wk lag
MMF flows	Change in $B	2.6B	14.2B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.	269B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.	615/262/178
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.25%	0.29%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset-CommHedg	5.04M	5.06M

SANTA CLAUS RALLY:

2011-12-26T13:40:00.000-08:00

This week is traditionally the week for the Santa Claus rally and the Mother of all rallies (in his 40 years) that Tom Demark predicted (offset a couple weeks). Also notable are the technically high probability events ( recently negated by Fed intervention, etc.) are the January Effect of small cap stocks and CEF (closed-end funds), such as munis, that get sold off in December, only to rally in January - something that is observable if not actionable.
Indicators are mean reverted, except for the McClellan Oscillator near its high border of 50, and bull/bear newsletters approaching complacency - so we could have a hiccup on the way higher. With markets barely even from a year ago, and even a decade ago, you might want to check out my other blog: http://ditmcalls.blogspot.com for safer yet much more rewarding strategy, or just an alternative to zero interest rates in CDs, MMFs, etc.
Here are the Indicators for last week:

Date>		12/23/2011	12/16/2011
Indices:	DJIA	12294	11866
	NAZ	2618	2555
	SPX	1265	1219
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs)	3.8/7.7	5.3/9.3
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	2.03	1.75
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	80
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	20.7	24.29
	Advance/Dec-NYSE	2577/587	813/2348
	Weekly Net:	1990	-1535
	Cumulative:	125945	123955
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	293/146	190/168
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	111/257	87/292
McClellan	Oscillator	48	-17
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	134	81
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	48.4	45.3
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	30.5	30.5
	AAII -Bull :wed.	33.7	40.2
	Bear	28.2	33.6
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	0/12.	17/19.
CEOinsider	selling	10:1	19:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1888	1889
3-box rev	Bullish%-	61	58
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	(4.0B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	14.2B	.3B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.		283B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.		615/265/174
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.29%	0.23%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset	5.06M	5.78M

"OFF" DEMARK:

2011-12-19T10:02:00.000-08:00

Over the years I've heard Technical Analyst Tom Demark at TSAA meetings, Bloomberg talks (he was on their staff with his Indicator), even had dinner with him - but never quite bought into his math predictions. Two weeks ago , highly touted by Bloomberg's Adam Johnson, as being followed by Soros, SAC's Cohen, et.al., when his bullish prediction lined up with my observations, I forecasted a seasonal rally.
Tom's prediction: 1330-45 on the SPX by the 21st of Dec. did seem pretty outlandish, and now - two days away, with the SPX at 1212, it would take a Xmas miracle to get there, although a yearend rally is likely (The Santa Claus rally is actually between Xmas and New Year's).
Other than the CBOE put/call ratio at 80, no other Indicator is at an extreme, this past low-volume week:

Date>		12/16/2011	12/9/2011
Indices:	DJIA	11866	12184
	NAZ	2555	2646
	SPX	1219	1255
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs)	5.3/9.3	4.4/8.3
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	1.75	1.89
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	80	77
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	24.29	26.38
	Advance/Dec-NYSE	813/2348	1876/1269
	Weekly Net:	-1535	607
	Cumulative:	123955	125490
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	190/168	239/44
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	87/292	110/147
McClellan	Oscillator	-17	16
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	81	237
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	45.3	47.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	30.5	29.5
	AAII -Bull :wed.	40.2	38.6
	Bear	33.6	34.8
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	17/19.	11/34.
CEOinsider	selling	19:1	40:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1889	1882
3-box rev	Bullish%-	58	61
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1 wk lag	1 wk lag
MMF flows	Change in $B	.3B	25.3B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly OCT.	283B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.	615/265/174
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.23%	0.23%
Euro futures	1 yr.offset	5.78M
	CommHedg

OVERFISHING:

2011-12-12T11:28:00.000-08:00

Days like today (down 240 points on the DJIA) only further the idea that the sharks (HFTs, Institutional Traders, et.al) are driving the small fish out of the water -only to fight among themselves. In the matrix below we see that equity mutual fund outflows have steadily occurred since April 22 without exception, and money market inflows are again happening -after the scare about dangerous European securities being invested in.

The new format below, not as eye-appealing, but with more data, now shows NASD to NYSE Volume and ratio (NASD being speculative); also shown is the weekly Adv./Dec. on the NYSE with my cumulative totals.The only real negatives this week were the AAII bull/bear reverted to more Bulls, and CEO Insider Selling leaped to 40:1. Finally, the ETF equity funds increased 20% month over month, to $615M.

Date>		12/2/2011	12/9/2011
Indices:	DJIA	12019	12184
	NAZ	2626	2646
	SPX	1244	1255
NASD/NYSE	WklyVolume (Bshs)	5.3/9.1	4.4/8.3
nasd/nyse	Specul.Ratio hi=bullish	1.72	1.89
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	77
Barron's	VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8	27.5	26.38
	Advance/Dec-NYSE	2698/479	1876/1269
	Weekly Net:	2219	607
	Cumulative:	124883	125490
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	258/120	239/44
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	95/229	110/147
McClellan	Oscillator	-2	16
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	176	237
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	44.2	47.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	30.5	29.5
	AAII -Bull :wed.	33	38.6
	Bear	39.4	34.8
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	…4/12	11/34.
CEOinsider	selling	11:1	40:1
BalticDryIndex	GlobalEcon	1862	1882
3-box rev	Bullish%-	58	61
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	(6.7B)	1 wk lag
MMF flows	Change in $B	6.1B	25.3B
MargDebt-mkt down 22% 1 year after top (300M)	monthly OCT.	283B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond	million$$ OCT.	615/265/174
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.26%	0.23%