Market Sentiment - A Contrarian View

EARLY EDITION

2017-09-22T13:08:00.002-07:00

On vacation for a couple weeks, so here is the data (most stats) for the past week:
Most data slightly weaker than previous - Delta MSI (stocks on BUYs) had a nice jump up (Bullish), as are most breadth and sentiment indicators recently. VIX broke down below 10 - a good time to buy calls, as we're not out of the Danger Zone yet. Week turned negative toward the end, but still closed to new weekly highs (except NAS).
Here are the numbers so far:

Date		9/22/2017	9/15/2017
Indices:	DJIA	22349	22268
	NAZ	6427	6448
	SPX	2502	2500
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	N/A	10.0/5.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		N/A	1.85
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	N/A	60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		9.7	10.2
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	65	57
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		N/A	2097/945
Weekly Net:		N/A	1152
Cumulative:		N/A	180684
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	N/A	373/33
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	N/A	416/88
McClellan	Oscillator	15	38
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	648	535
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	50.5	47.1
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	19	20.2
Wed.	AAII -Bull	40.1	41.3
	Bear	27.2	22
US$-WSJ		92.2	91.8
3-box rev	Bullish%-	69	69
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	weeklate
MMF flows	Change in $B	(16.4B)	16.8B*
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		550B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.26	2.20
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.44	1.37
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114	114.5

TECHNICIANS' DELIGHT

2017-09-18T13:26:00.001-07:00

Thanks be to Barron's for their reportage, and a tip of the hat to Sam Stoval of CFRA (much to the displeasure of his papa - Robert, I'm sure) ,and Vito Racanelli's column, several Technical trivia have emerged about the stock market:
2017 is becoming a rara avis historically for stocks, with only 8 days of more than 1% Volatility, vs. the average of 50/year since WWII - with 32 New Highs for the SPX - twice the average during that time. And, only 17 times that Aug. and Sept. ( so far !!) both closed positively.
Vito brings up the issue of declining public stocks, which has been cut in half over the past 20 years ( 3600 vs. 7200 in 1996); private equity seems to be replacing IPOs, due to pressures of being public and private $$ less demanding of activists. I remember the company's mandate before 2000 was what was best for the company and consumer, where it changed to best for the stockholder ( whose major owners were CEOs, etc.) Interesting.

Not much notable amongst Sentiment and Breadth numbers this week, although markets did make new highs, and the NYSE and Nasdaq new highs jumped, and $$ flowed out of Equities and into MMFs again. And Advance/Declines made a turnaround reversal again from the prior week.

Here are the numbers:

Date		9/15/2017	9/8/2017
Indices:	DJIA	22268	21797
	NAZ	6448	6360
	SPX	2500	2461
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	10.0/5.4	7.5/3.3*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.85	2.27
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		10.2	12.1
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	57	54
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2097/945	1227/1839
Weekly Net:		1152	-612
Cumulative:		180684	179534
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	373/33	280/88
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	416/88	300/132
McClellan	Oscillator	38	13
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	535	347
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	47.1	49.5
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	20.2	19.1
Wed.	AAII -Bull	41.3	29.3
	Bear	22	35.7
US$-WSJ		91.8	91.3
3-box rev	Bullish%-	69	66
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(2.9B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	16.8B*	11.1B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	550B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.20	2.05
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.37	1.27
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.5	115.2

REVERSAL OF FORTUNE

2017-09-11T12:20:00.000-07:00

I was Shocked ! Shocked ! when I saw the stock market futures last night and more so when it opened today. After all the turmoil - domestically and globally of the weekend, and a dismal August for stocks, the next 4-5 weeks are consistently the worst of the year historically. So we're not out of the woods yet, at least for a minor correction - a Recession is probably still 18-24 months away. But when it hits, it will be a doozy as US and global Debt rises exponentially out of control.

Volume was down, due to the 4-day week, breadth was slightly negative ( Advances, New Highs, etc.); most all else was frozen from last week. See below:

	SPX	2461	2476
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	7.5/3.3*	8.2/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.27	2.28
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.1	10.1
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	54	51
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1227/1839	2210/867
Weekly Net:		-612	1343
Cumulative:		179534	180146nh
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	280/88	285/115
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	300/132	302/133
McClellan	Oscillator	13	46
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	347	267
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	49.5	49.5
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	19.1	19.1
Wed.	AAII -Bull	29.3	25
	Bear	35.7	39.9
US$-WSJ		91.3	92.8
3-box rev	Bullish%-	66	66
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	3.7B
MMF flows	Change in $B	11.1B	(20B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		JULY:
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.05	2.17
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.27	1.35
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	115.2	114.2

RECESS

2017-09-05T09:50:00.001-07:00

In school, Recess was always looked forward to - but in Economics, Recessions are definitely anathema . As history is our guide, nearly every zero year in the decade has seen one- since 1900 there has always been at least one ( up to 3).
So far in the last ten years we have not seen one. Barron's Cover story has a nice chart of how stock Crashes involve Recessions, usually precede the "R" by a year or so, and 5 of the last 6 since 1970 were just after the 0.
As for now, both Technical and Fundamental (Quant) signals are still Bullish, but the next 3-4 weeks could see a single-digit Correction before a final leg up into next year. Another conclusive signal to watch for in a R is the Flat Yield curve, where short term rates - 2-year and 3-month Treasurys (as well as the Fed Funds) are higher than the 10-year Tsy. (backwardation in futures lingo).

Last week saw Volume starting to pick up again as the Nasdaq made a new high ; the McClellan Oscillator (advances v. decline formula) gave a sell signal Friday at +46 -providential. Finally, MMFs (money markets) Flows reversed bigtime -see below:

Date		9/1/2017	8/25/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21987	21813
	NAZ	6435nh	6265
	SPX	2476	2443
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.2/3.6	7.6/3.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.28	2.17
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	57	61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		10.1	11.3
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	51	48
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2210/867	2126/944
Weekly Net:		1343	1182
Cumulative:		180146nh	178803
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	285/115	207/203
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	302/133	152/222
McClellan	Oscillator	46	8
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	267	172
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	49.5	48.1
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	19.1	18.3
Wed.	AAII -Bull	25	28.1
	Bear	39.9	38.3
US$-WSJ		92.8	92.5
3-box rev	Bullish%-	66	65
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(4.7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(20B)	29,4B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	JULY:	550B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.17	2.17
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.35	1.33
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.2	114.1

unLABOR DAY

2017-08-28T13:00:00.000-07:00

A week before Labor Day, everyone, including global economists at Jackson Hole, seems to be on vacation - with both NYSE and Nasdaq Volume below normal levels. However, the recent market decline has reversed, as has the NYSE Hi/Lo reading. The AAII Bull/Bear ratio inverted to the Bear side (Bullish for stocks); the Dollar hit a new recent Low, and MMF inflows continue to expand, as they leave equity funds and ETFs. But Margin Debt leapt back to all time highs, with low interest rates. Not a good sign for when rates rise again, just as with the national debt of $20T !!
Here are the numbers:

Date

8/25/2017

8/18/2017

Indices:

DJIA

21813

21674

NAZ

6265

6216

SPX

2443

2425

WklyVolume (Bshs).

naz/ny….

7.6/3.5

9.0/3.9

Specul.Ratio hi=bullish

2.17

2.31

Sentiment:

put/call-CBOE

VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8

11.3

14.3

DeltaMSI-50%

MAC crossover

Advance/Dec-NYSE..

2126/944

1386/1678

Weekly Net:

1182

-292

Cumulative:

178803

177621

Weekly

NYSE hi/low…

207/203

164/245

New Hi's/Low's

Nasdaq h/l

152/222

147/282

McClellan

Oscillator

-49

McClellanSum

.+750/-1000

172

241

Newsletter

Inv.Intel -Bull

48.1

50.5

Surveys-Tues

Bear:-5yrs

18.3

18.1

Wed.

AAII -Bull

28.1

34.2

Bear

38.3

32.8

US$-WSJ

92.5

93.4

3-box rev

Bullish%-

US equity -ICI

Fund Flows

weeklate

(11.2B)

MMF flows

Change in $B

29,4B

12.6B

MargDebt- top (300M)

monthly

550B

10-yr Tsy yield

hi= stock buying

2.17

2.2

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation

1.33

1.31

TIP (ETF)

Inflation

114.1

114

WHY DOES A BICYCLE ALWAYS FALL DOWN?

2017-08-21T10:40:00.001-07:00

Because it is two-tired !!
That's the way the market seem these lazy days of summer - August.
Last week the NYSE New Highs to Lows went negative, following the week before's Nasdaq lead. Advance/decline stocks also went negative.
Stocks on a BUY signal are barely positive (54), while its twin, the Delta MACD is at 51.
With no signs of a Recession or Inflation, hopefully it's just setting up for a correction or reaccumulation for another winter rally.

Here are the numbers:

Date		8/18/2017	8/11/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21674	21858
	NAZ	6216	6256
	SPX	2425	2441
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.0/3.9	9.5/4.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.31	2.38
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	71	81
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14.3	15.5
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	51	60
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1386/1678	561/2527
Weekly Net:		-292	-1966
Cumulative:		177621	177913
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	164/245	259/231
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	147/282	244/297
McClellan	Oscillator	-49	-69
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	241	460
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	50.5	57.5
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	18.1	17
Wed.	AAII -Bull	34.2	33.7
	Bear	32.8	32.3
US$-WSJ		93.4	93.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	54	67
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(2.8B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	12.6B	30B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.2	2.19
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.31	1.29
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114	111.7

FEDERAL RESERVE OR FEDERAL REVERSE??

2017-08-14T11:12:00.000-07:00

August's second half and September are the worst time of year for the Stock Market - will the Fed keep raising rates to fight no imminent Inflation? We finally got a shot across the bow last week with a market downdraft of more than 1%, but have rallied almost all the way back in a retracement - the McClellan Oscillator gave us the clue at minus 69 (below 50), and the CBOE put/call option ratio spiked to 81 as the VIX almost doubled. MMFs flows jumped up from mutual funds, and NYSE Breadth was terrible. See below:

Date		8/11/2017	8/4/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21858	22092
	NAZ	6256	6351
	SPX	2441	2476
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.5/4.0	9.7/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.38	2.26
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	81	68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		15.5	10
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	60	66.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		561/2527	1522/1546
Weekly Net:		-1966	-24
Cumulative:		177913	179879
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	259/231	388/131
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	244/297	298/216
McClellan	Oscillator	-69	-13
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	460	711
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	57.5	60
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17	16.2
Wed.	AAII -Bull	33.7	36.1
	Bear	32.3	32.1
US$-WSJ		93.1	93.4
3-box rev	Bullish%-	67	69
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(3.9B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	30B	20.4B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.19	2.26
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.29	1.35
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	111.7	113.6

HOLD YOUR BREADTH!!

2017-07-31T09:22:00.001-07:00

Breadth, in Stock market terms, usually means strength of markets, such as Advancing stocks over Decliners, New Highs over Lows, etc. Last week the change on the NYSE was....+7 stocks. Otherwise, New Highs were strong on both markets, the New Market High treadmill keeps ramping UP - The Trend is your Friend, until it Bends at the End.
The Dollar seeks new recent lows, as other countries support their currencies with sharper rate hikes than our Fed. The end-of-month Margin Interest number is out, near record highs, thanks to the low rates.
Here are the numbers:

Date		7/28/2017	7/21/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21830	21580
	NAZ	6374	6387
	SPX	2472	2472
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	.8/4.4	8.6/3.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.23	2.32
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	72	58
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		10.3	9.4
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	72.6	69.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1533/1526	1881/1182
Weekly Net:		7	699
Cumulative:		179903	179896
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	421/75	431/48
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	432/146	393/122
McClellan	Oscillator	-1	18
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	750	727
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	60.2	57.8
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	16.5	16.7
Wed.	AAII -Bull	34.5	36
	Bear	24.3	26
US$-WSJ		93.3	94
3-box rev	Bullish%-	73	75
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(4.5B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	23.3B	(9.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	539B	JUNE
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.29	2.24
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.35	1.34
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.7	113.6

UPDATE TIME

2017-07-24T16:36:00.002-07:00

One of my readers last week requested that I update and explain the Sentiment Indicators I post weekly on this site. Over the past decade I have deleted and added a few. None of these Contrary Opinion numbers are actionable by themselves, but taken together can warn of speculative emotions.
The Indices are self-explanatory w/w ( week over week); Volume is Nasdaq vs. NYSE, a speculative signal; the CBOE equity Put to Call ratio and VIX are fear guides.
A new Delta MACD crossover is a bullish ( above 50) number , similar to Bullish %, or stocks on a BUY signal; Breadth is signalled by Advance/Decline, along with cumulative -now near record highs; also New Highs and Lows on the NYSE and Nasdaq.
The McClellan Oscillator ( and cum. Summation) is also a chart of advance/declines in a formula. The AAII and Investors' Intelligence Bull/Bear ratios are contrary - the I I become harder to locate recently ( I might switch back to Rydex.
Margin Debt remains HUGE, what with low rates; fund flows measure public $$, what with the ETF monster sucking up much in Index funds - some coming from Index Mutual Funds!!! Finally, the 2 and 10- year Treas. rates can be used to forecast a Recession - for over a Century we have never had a 10-year period where a Recession did not happen, and it always had an inverted Yield Curve (backwardation, not Contango) -the spread is lessening recently, as is the 3-month to 10-year TSY.
TIPs measure Inflation which at present is nonexistent.
Here are the recent numbers:

Date		7/21/2017	7/14/17
Indices:	DJIA	21580	21637
	NAZ	6387	6312
	SPX	2472	2459
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.6/3.7	8.6/3.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.32	2.26
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	58	61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		9.4	9.5
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	69.9	58.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1881/1182	2174/902
Weekly Net:		699	1272
Cumulative:		179896	179197
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	431/48	323/83
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	393/122	282/153
McClellan	Oscillator	18	29
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	727	594
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	na	50
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	na	18.6
Wed.	AAII -Bull	36	28.2
	Bear	26	29.6
US$-WSJ		94	95.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	75	73
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(2.1B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(9.9B)	0
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		540B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.24	2.33
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.34	1.36
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.6	113

DOG DAYS OF SUMMER

2017-07-17T12:37:00.002-07:00

According to Tom Bowley of Stockcharts, for the past 20 years (1998 on) the worst 3 months of the year have been - July, Aug., and Sept. Averaging around 50% of the time being up for the month. Although we keep hitting new highs, Volume and Momentum seem to have caught the Summer malaise.
Sentiment seems to also be on Hold, with Extremes being the margin interest (down slightly from mo/mo record highs), and the Institutions (Wire house newsletters) wildly Bullish (3 : 1) , while us amateurs - AAII are dead even (Bulls and Bears. The yield Curve - 10-yr. Treas. vs. 3-month - is the lowest since 2006-8 when we had the sliding down market into the Recession.
Here are the numbers:

Date		#######	7/7/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21637	21414
	NAZ	6312	6153
	SPX	2459	2425
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.6/3.8	6.6/3.0*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.26	2.2
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		9.5	11.2
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	58.9	63.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2174/902	1418/1630
Weekly Net:		1272	-212
Cumulative:		179197	177925
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	323/83	229/96
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	282/153	164/107
McClellan	Oscillator	29	-11
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	594	560
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	50	52.5
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	18.6	18.8
Wed.	AAII -Bull	28.2	29.6
	Bear	29.6	29.9
US$-WSJ		95.1	96
3-box rev	Bullish%-	73	73
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(11.6B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	0	4.7B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	540B	May
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.33	2.39
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.36	1.4
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113	112.4

SAME OLD

2017-07-08T11:55:00.001-07:00

Not much change over the mid-week Holiday. Indices were positive, breadth negative, Volume almost halved. The TIP did break down below 113, and short term Treasury rates jumped a bit.
Bull/Bear ratios still very strong on the Bull side, as investors pour $$ into ETFs now, mostly SPY.
Great interview of Burton Malkiel on this by Consuela Mack - Wealthtrack (PBS or .com).
Question is - which ends first?: Fed propping up the markets or Index fund Inflows, propping up weak as well as strong stocks in each Index.
Here are last week's numbers:

Date		7/7/2017	6/30/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21414	21349
	NAZ	6153	6140
	SPX	2425	2423
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	6.6/3.0*	10.7/4.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.2	2.43
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.2	11.2
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	63.3	61.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1418/1630	1688/1404
Weekly Net:		-212	284
Cumulative:		177925	178137
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	229/96	297/57
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	164/107	314/104
McClellan	Oscillator	-11	0
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	560	584
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	52.5	54.9
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	18.8	18.6
Wed.	AAII -Bull	29.6	29.7
	Bear	29.9	26.9
US$-WSJ		96	95.7
3-box rev	Bullish%-	73	72
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(4.4B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	4.7B	4.2B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		540
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.39	2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.4	1.38
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	112.4	113.4

RECESS TIME

2017-07-02T17:31:00.002-07:00

Stocks backed off a bit and Breadth recovered slightly; speculative Volume ratio improved (Nas over NY). Margin Interest declined for the first time in ages. Even MMF flows improved as equities funds flowed out the prior week. Here are the results - let the fireworks begin:

Date		6/30/2017	6/23/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21349	21394
	NAZ	6140	6265
	SPX	2423	2438
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	10.7/4.4	12.5/5.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.43	2.31
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	59
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.2	10
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	61.6	62.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1688/1404	1533/1556
Weekly Net:		284	-23
Cumulative:		178137	177853
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	297/57	368/187
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	314/104	319/150
McClellan	Oscillator	0	-2
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	584	583
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	na	51.5
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	na	19.4
Wed.	AAII -Bull	na	32.7
	Bear	na	28.9
US$-WSJ		95.7	97.3
3-box rev	Bullish%-	72	72
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(7.9B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	4.2B	(16.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	540	549B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.5	2.1
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.38	1.35
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.4	114.3

Computer Repaired

2017-06-24T12:42:00.001-07:00

After a brief hiatus, we're back with the Sentiment Blog:
Notables last week (ending June 23) - the continuing parity between Advances and declines:

1533/1556

1490/1581,etc. - a very minor number between Adv. and Decl.

( I guess my PC is not quite well)

The McClellan Oscillator also minimal - from +1 to -2;

Week late but telling, the MMF outflows were HUGE, ad were Equity (stocks) inflows.

Lastly, Nasdaq Volume set a record high, as speculation is Bullish, as is the new his/los/

See Below:

Date		6/23/2017	6/16/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21394	21384
	NAZ	6265	6151
	SPX	2438	2433
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	12.5/5.4	11.4/5.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.31	2
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	59	69
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		10	10.4
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	62.2	63.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1533/1556	1490/1581
Weekly Net:		-23	-91
Cumulative:		177853	177876
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	368/187	350/120
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	319/150	281/157
McClellan	Oscillator	-2	1
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	583	638
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	51.5	50
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	19.4	18.6
Wed.	AAII -Bull	32.7	32.3
	Bear	28.9	29.5
US$-WSJ		97.3	97.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	72	70
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	19.6B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(16.2B)	na
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	549B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.1	2.1
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.35	1.3
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.3	113.7

HOW HIGH THE MOON

2017-05-15T13:23:00.000-07:00

Markets continue to make new highs almost every day and week, despite all the global calamities from elections, firings, to rockets. In a recent excellent webinar by Option King Larry McMillan, he not only analyzes the VIX Indicator and its misuse, but opines that if the S&P 500 breaks above the May 9 closing high of 2401 and closes twice above that, the market should resume its uptrend. FANG stocks are also propelling the NASDAQ to new highs, although Inflation Adjusted, it is not quite the case.It broke 5000 in March of 2000. BTW - today's close of the SPX was 2402 !!!

Sentiment Indicators remain mostly the same except for Mutual fund flows out instead of in last week; The I.I. Bull/Bear ratio stayed at its extreme of over 3:1 (normally a dangerous complacent signal). It was also noted that the NYSE Advance/Decline breadth numbers are not the best to use, as 30% of NYSE Volume nowadays is in ETFs, plus closed end funds, preferred stocks, etc.

Here are the numbers:

Date		5/12/2017	5/5/2017
Indices:	DJIA	20896	21006
	NAZ	6121	6100
	SPX	2390	2399
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.6/4.1	9.9/4.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.34	2.25
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		10.4	10.5
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	55.4	60.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1352/1626	1548/1535
Weekly Net:		-274	13
Cumulative:		176539	176813
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	325/92	427/137
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	393/200	429/196
McClellan	Oscillator	-23	0
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	545	609
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	58.7	58.5
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17.3	17.9
Wed.	AAII -Bull	32.7	38.1
	Bear	30.2	29.9
US$-WSJ		99.2	98.6
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(4.3B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(6.2B)	1.6B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	528B	March
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.3	2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.3	1.31
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.8	113.7

M'AIDEZ (MAYDAY)

2017-05-08T11:21:00.002-07:00

Today's stock markets were Underwhelmed by the victory in France of Macron over Le Pen. No surprise there, like Brexit and Trump. Although last week hit some new highs, markets are climbing out of Saucer formations moving into June - possibly the next rate hike. The 2-year Treas.rate picked up again into the 1.30s % while the 10-year hit 2.4%. No sign of a flat Yield curve, necessary for a Recession to occur - maybe 4-5 more hikes on the short end. Every decade has an "R", usually @ the zero year - so watch out below !

Sentiment Indicators were mixed - the Adv/Dec difference was a mere 13!, causing the McClellan Oscillator to end at the zero line; New Highs were strong, however. Margin Interest remains HUGE, as does the U S Debt, both of which will squirm when rates rise. Finally, the dollar hit a recent low, per Trump's wishes, which should help Gold.
See below:

Date		5/5/2017	4/28/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21006	20940
	NAZ	6100	6047
	SPX	2399	2384
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.9/4.4	9.4/4.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.25	1.96
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		10.5	10.8
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	60.3	59.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1548/1535	1901/1175
Weekly Net:		13	726
Cumulative:		176813	176800
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	427/137	544/71
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	429/196	561/138
McClellan	Oscillator	0	8
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	609	620
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	58.5	54.7
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17.9	17.9
Wed.	AAII -Bull	38.1	38.1
	Bear	29.9	31.7
US$-WSJ		98.6	99.0
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	74
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	6.8B
MMF flows	Change in $B	1.6B	15.4B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	March	537B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.4	2.3
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.31	1.27
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.7	115.2

GETTING HIGH AGAIN

2017-05-01T12:30:00.002-07:00

After back to back 250 point up days on the DJIA, markets on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at new highs last week. Technically, the Momentum studies bode well for more highs to follow near term - just about everyone agrees. Not saying a Correction is not possible.
Since WWII (or before) there has never been a decade without a Recession - and if we have one in the next four years (usually @ the Zero year of the Decile cycle) it should be a doozy, with the outstanding debt. Even Margin Debt rocketed to new highs at $537B due to low rates; when they go up ....
as the numbers below show, Breadth was positive last week - new highs, Advances over Declines, and MMF $ flows (money markets) reversed from Out to In bigtime - retail investors are IN.

Date		4/28/2017	4/21/2017
Indices:	DJIA	20940	20584
	NAZ	6047	5910
	SPX	2384	2352
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.4/4.8	8.1/4.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.96	1.98
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	65	66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		10.8	14.6
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	59.9	50.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1901/1175	2055/1009
Weekly Net:		726	1046
Cumulative:		176800	176074
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	544/71	295/61
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	561/138	239/144
McClellan	Oscillator	8	8
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	620	488
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	54.7	51.9
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17.9	18.3
Wed.	AAII -Bull	38.1	25.7
	Bear	31.7	37
US$-WSJ		99.0	99.8
3-box rev	Bullish%-	74	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(2.7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	15.4B	(16.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	537B	MARCH
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.3	2.2
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.27	1.17
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	115.2	114.7

SPRING IS HERE

2017-04-21T17:08:00.003-07:00

And so is vacation, so here is this past week's data ahead of time, as I head for the Big Casinos in Reno.
Not much of note happened in the markets or the Indicators, some reversals. Breadth returned to Positive (A/D), as did the McClellan Osc.; and Summation rose.. I.I. show too many Bulls to Bears, and the $ is weakening.
Here are the ##s

Date		4/21/2017	4/14/2017
Indices:	DJIA	20584	20453
	NAZ	5910	5805
	SPX	2352	2329
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.1/4.1	6.6*/3.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.98	2.2
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	77
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14.6	15.9
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	50.4	52
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2055/1009	1300/1768
Weekly Net:		1046	-468
Cumulative:		176074	175028
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	295/61	211/47
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	239/144	156/119
McClellan	Oscillator	8	-16
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	488	456
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	51.9	56.3
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	18.3	17.5
Wed.	AAII -Bull	25.7	29
	Bear	37	37.4
US$-WSJ		99.8	100.6
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	(2.7B)	WeekLate
MMF flows	Change in $B	(16.9B)	(4.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		528B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.2	2.2
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.17	1.21
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.7	115.2

SNAP BACK

2017-04-17T12:43:00.002-07:00

One day after Easter (and one day before the IRS comes calling for $$), stocks seem to have risen from the dead. After the S&P 500 hitting the 2400 mark on March 1, it fell gradually until today - hopefully the beginning of another cyclical rally.
Although the market is way overdue for a correction, a secular Bear doesn't seem to be in the offing. Since 1950, per Barron's item, no Recession has occurred without an Inverted Yield Curve in the Treasuries - 2-year yield ABOVE the 10-year. And Bear markets usually coincide with the R-word, which has occurred at least once in every decade for nearly a Century or more.
As for sentiment/breadth, notable exceptions include TIPs hitting the 115 mark; the VIX hitting almost 16 last week. The CBOE put/call ratio leapt to 77 from 64, a Bullish sign of fear.
See below:

Date		4/14/2017	4/7/2017
Indices:	DJIA	20453	20656
	NAZ	5805	5877
	SPX	2329	2355
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	6.6*/3.0	9.3/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.2	2.21
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	77	64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		15.9	12.9
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	52	52.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1300/1768	1608/1478
Weekly Net:		-468	130
Cumulative:		175028	175496
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	211/47	225/67
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	156/119	223/135
McClellan	Oscillator	-16	14
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	456	405
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	56.3	55.8
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17.5	18.3
Wed.	AAII -Bull	29	28.3
	Bear	37.4	39.6
US$-WSJ		100.6	101.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	74
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(12.7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(4.1B)	(6B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	528B	FEB.:
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.2	2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.21	1.29
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	115.2	114.6

PREMATURE EVACUATION ??

2017-04-10T11:37:00.000-07:00

Credit to Kopin Tan and Barron's for the phrase above and the chart showing corporate insiders selling HUGE numbers for the third time this year. However, just as with the low and steady VIX indicator, it does not necessary presage a market Crash, even though valuations are high.

In fact, as shown below, most Sentiment and Breadth Indicators are pretty much the same ol'.

Date		4/7/2017	3/31/17EOQ
Indices:	DJIA	20656	20663
	NAZ	5877	5911
	SPX	2355	2362
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.3/4.2	8.8/4.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.21	2.15
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	64	57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.9	12.4
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	52.2	50.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1608/1478	2292/809
Weekly Net:		130	1483
Cumulative:		175496	175366
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	225/67	227/69
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	223/135	275/123
McClellan	Oscillator	14	36
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	405	325
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	55.8	49.5
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	18.3	18.1
Wed.	AAII -Bull	28.3	30.2
	Bear	39.6	37.4
US$-WSJ		101.1	100.6
3-box rev	Bullish%-	74	73
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	0
MMF flows	Change in $B	(6B)	0
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	FEB.:	528B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.4	2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.29	1.25
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.6	114.6

ITEMS OF "INTEREST"

2017-04-03T13:13:00.001-07:00

Conventional Wisdom would suggest that since the National Debt has doubled over the past decade, that Interest Rate Hikes to service that debt would be disastrous. Although somewhat true, Barron's' Gene Epstein reports that for the past 60 years the average rate has been ..5.8%; it is now only 2%, and the CBO sees in 30 years (?) it will still only be 4.4%.
Also of "Interest" - in this week's Sentiment numbers, Margin Interest has skyrocketed again to $528B, which will also rise to borrowers when rates do!
As the housewife once said: I can't be broke - I still have checks left!

Here are the numbers:

Date		3/31/17EOQ	3/24/2017
Indices:	DJIA	20663	20596
	NAZ	5911	5828
	SPX	2362	2343
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.8/4.1	9.2/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.15	2.14
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	57	71
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.4	13
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	50.4	53
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2292/809	1186/1923
Weekly Net:		1483	-737
Cumulative:		175366	173883
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	227/69	218/115
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	275/123	300/172
McClellan	Oscillator	36	-9
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	325	222
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	49.5	56.7
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	18.1	17.3
Wed.	AAII -Bull	30.2	35.3
	Bear	37.4	30.5
US$-WSJ		100.6	99.8
3-box rev	Bullish%-	73	75
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(6.9B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	0	(23.3B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	528B	513Bnh
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.4	2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.25	1.25
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.6	114.4

WEAK WEEK

2017-03-27T13:53:00.002-07:00

Another weak of falling from the record close of 21,000 DJIA (30); breadth also fell - Adv/Decl and New hi's. Rising Indicators included CBOE put/call ratio, Inv.Intell. Bulls and MMF flows (into money markets bigtime).
Danger signals are margin interest and the above I.I. Bulls to Bears. Inflation via TIPS seem to be picking up as well.
Here are last week's ##s:

Date		3/24/2017	3/17/2017
Indices:	DJIA	20596	20914
	NAZ	5828	5901
	SPX	2343	2378
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.2/4.3	10.0/5.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.14	1.82
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	71	66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13	11.3
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	53	53
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1186/1923	2243/868
Weekly Net:		-737	1375
Cumulative:		173883	174620
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	218/115	305/139
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	300/172	372/160
McClellan	Oscillator	-9	2
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	222	320
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	56.7	53.4
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17.3	17.5
Wed.	AAII -Bull	35.3	31.2
	Bear	30.5	38.7
US$-WSJ		99.8	100.3
3-box rev	Bullish%-	75	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	9.0B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(23.3B)	(11.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	513Bnh	Jan.
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.4	2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.25	1.33
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.4	113.7

Wearin' Of The Green

2017-03-20T16:49:00.001-07:00

Stocks were basically green (UP), at least for the start of last week, only to sustain a slight hangover into the weekend. Breadth did a major turnaround, from negative to positive; the McClellan Oscillator jumped from minus 61 to plus two. Still worrisome are the Bulls to Bears ( Inv. Intell.) and record margin interest, which could cost more as rates rise. Contrary to conventional wisdom, stocks to not fall as interest rates rise, at least at first - when they normalize, bond rates become competitive, especially when they overshoot, as they are wont to do.
Here are the numbers:

Date		3/17/2017	3/10/2017
Indices:	DJIA	20914	20902
	NAZ	5901	5861
	SPX	2378	2372
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	10.0/5.5	9.2/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.82	2.19
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.3	11.7
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	53	58.5
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2243/868	678/2426
Weekly Net:		1375	-1748
Cumulative:		174620	173245
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	305/139	162/169
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	372/160	236/166
McClellan	Oscillator	2	-61
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	320	440
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	53.4	57.7
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17.5	17.3
Wed.	AAII -Bull	31.2	30
	Bear	38.7	46.5
US$-WSJ		100.3	101.4
3-box rev	Bullish%-	76	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	4.3B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(11.7B)	10.1B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	Jan.	513Bnh
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.5	2.6
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.33	1.35
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.7	113

CON-GRESS or PRO-GRESS?

2017-03-13T12:10:00.001-07:00

In these divisive times, not only is the country divided as to opinions, but so is Congress. Winston Churchill once said Democracy is the worst form of government - except for all the others.
Looking up the word "Congress", it comes from the Latin congressus, or congredi, with meanings including coming together and coitus (OMG).

Previous columns have mentioned Hegel's use of Dialectic - where Thesis meets Antithesis to form Synthesis, taking the best ideas from both. Perhaps we should rename Congress: COMITY.

Last week saw the stock market pause on its 8th year ann'y after the Huge Trump rally. Most Indicators stayed the same direction, only worse. Breadth was bad, as Advances fell behind Declines and New Lows rose on the NYSE and Nas. My fave Indicator failed - the McClellan Oscillator falling below -50 (usually a BUY signal on Monday.

Danger signals remain: Large (record) Margin Interest, I.I. Bulls 3:1 over Bears, and Insider Selling is getting attention. A rare INFLOW to MMFs, most since last Dec. Safe money looks to the 2-year Treas, now 1.37%!
Here are the numbers:

Date		3/10/2017	3/3/2017
Indices:	DJIA	20902	21005
	NAZ	5861	5870
	SPX	2372	2383
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.2/4.2	10.2/4.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.19	2.13
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	62	61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.7	10.9
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	58.5	66.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		678/2426	1438/1652
Weekly Net:		-1748	-214
Cumulative:		173245	174993
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	162/169	474/75
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	236/166	490/132
McClellan	Oscillator	-61	-22
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	440	768
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	57.7	4:1.63.1
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17.3	16.5
Wed.	AAII -Bull	30	37.9
	Bear	46.5	35.4
US$-WSJ		101.4	101.3
3-box rev	Bullish%-	76	79nh
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	5.8B
MMF flows	Change in $B	10.1B	(2B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		513Bnh
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.6	2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.35	1.3
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113	114.1

Oh, SNAP

2017-03-06T12:49:00.002-08:00

In my day we used a different S*** word; investors in Snapchat may switch to the new one, if Barron's is correct and the stock gets cut in half. Looking at today's market - all my positions are in a Sea of Red (after a nice runup). Hopefully it is just Pause that Refreshes!
Barron's also notes that it is the Individual that is driving the market now (not a good sign), rather than Institutions. Bulls at II (Investors' Intelligence) have risen to a 4 to 1 ratio over Bears (see below), not seen since 1987- a year that will go down.....
Prominent in last week's Sentiment/Breadth data was the rise (monthly) in Margin Interest to new highs, at 513B. As reported earlier, if/when a crash comes, higher rates will cost more to borrow as panickers and AI machines could cause a cascade of Selling, like 1987..
That said, Breadth and momentum still seems strong on Trump's promises.
Here are the numbers:

Date		3/3/2017	2/24/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21005	20821
	NAZ	5870	5845
	SPX	2383	2367
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	10.2/4.8	7.3/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.13	2.03
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		10.9	11.5
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	66.7	71.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1438/1652	1763/1334
Weekly Net:		-214	429
Cumulative:		174993	175207
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	474/75	449/41
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	490/132	496/95
McClellan	Oscillator	-22	2
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	768	812
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	4:1.63.1	61.2
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	16.5	17.5
Wed.	AAII -Bull	37.9	38.5
	Bear	35.4	32.1
US$-WSJ		101.3	101.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	79nh	77nh
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	3.4B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(2B)	5.1B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	513Bnh	490B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.5	2.3
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.3	1.15
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.1	114.9

TAKE A HIKE

2017-02-27T11:51:00.000-08:00

Since everything Trump is beeyoutiful these days, a possible rate hike by the Fed maybe in the cards for mid-March - a good time to jump into Treasuries at auction (par) if you have some spare cash.
Stocks, however, could be heading for at least a Correction, with consecutive record highs rivaling 1987 !!!!!
Sentiment and Breadth seem equal to the rising market in intensity; Equity flows - funds and ETFs (those traded on exchanges) have been positive since the election (after a brief respite) . They were mostly flowing Out all of 2016 until then. Margin Debt is spectacularly high - a danger if stocks start to slide and people/robos have to sell to meet margin calls -Hello!
All else seems stable - Bulls, advance/declines, VIX, but Inflation -as measured by TIPS hit a new high last week. See below:

Date		2/24/2017	2/17/2017
Indices:	DJIA	20821	20624
	NAZ	5845	5838
	SPX	2367	2351
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	7.3/3.6	9.6/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.03	2.23
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	64	57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.5	11.5
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	71.9	72.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1763/1334	1606/1501
Weekly Net:		429	105
Cumulative:		175207	174776
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	449/41	504/33
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	496/95	555/85
McClellan	Oscillator	2	2
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	812	778
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	61.2	61.8
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17.5	17.6
Wed.	AAII -Bull	38.5	33.1
	Bear	32.1	32.4
US$-WSJ		101.1	100.9
3-box rev	Bullish%-	77nh	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	8.1B
MMF flows	Change in $B	5.1B	(2.0B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	490B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.3	2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.15	1.2
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.9	114.2