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Nifty weekly update

2011-04-26T12:42:00.001+05:30

Nifty seems to be on consolidation mood, watch to the 5900 on weekly closing basis for next upsurge on Nifty and 5540 should be holding onto, to gain strength for the next bullish move to continue. Any weakness or bearish phase should start only on close below the 5300 on weekly closing basis - these are long to intermediate term views.

For short term, expecting the Nifty to be bearish to test the 5700 to 5540 levels.

Gulf oil Corporation - update

2011-04-23T17:24:00.001+05:30

Interesting chart pattern

Timken update

2011-04-23T16:40:00.002+05:30

Refer earlier post

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_muLfSXFGHSE/TJi5Cty29OI/AAAAAAAAARo/QXzjh44JcXo/s1600/TIMKEN.PNG

Timken weekly chart

India bulls

2011-04-23T16:11:00.000+05:30

Indiabulls weekly charts comments are added in the chart itself.

Share trading - 3 Blind men with the Elephants

2011-04-23T15:51:00.001+05:30

A Hindu folktale tells of three blind men encountering an elephant. "It's a tree," says one, stroking a leg. "No, no, it's a snake," says another, feeling the trunk. "No, this must be a house," insists a third, spreading his arms against the bulk of the elephant's body.

All three had a different perception of the elephant based on the part they examined, and all three conclusions were wrong. The elephant was larger and more complex than any of the men realized.

A similar tale is told everyday in the market. Each market participant has different needs, agendas, histories, perceptions, and sees the market completely differently. As with the three blind men examining the elephant:

The Bear saw Friday's drop as a great vindication of his view and recovery of his position.

The Bull saw the action as a short pullback to add to or enter a long position.

The Day Trader saw the morning gap up as a great short set up, and the long saw the gap as a great exit from Wednesday's trade.

This is one of the challenges of our market debates; each one of us has a different perspective from which we are examining the same elephant. Each of us has a reason to interpret what we see and say to influence others or convince ourselves that we are right. No one is right or wrong but human nature is subjective, and thus leads to the creation of the market whereby both buyer and seller feel that they've been enriched

Nifty update

2010-12-21T19:15:00.000+05:30

Nifty spot if closes above gives double bottom formation and could give another 320 point upward move, yet to close above 6020. So, crucial level to watch is 6020 on closing basis.

Vardhaman Polyster

2010-10-20T18:40:00.000+05:30

Nifty update with chart

2010-10-15T20:16:00.001+05:30

Nifty weekly chart

Nifty daily chart

REI AGRO - views

2010-10-12T10:04:00.000+05:30

Just this simple chart say's everything - long consolidation and breakout with volume, now immediate target should be to fill the gap.And the momentum sustain there after then can target much higher levels of 33.

BEL - Double bottom pattern

2010-10-06T18:29:00.001+05:30

Double click on the chart for enlarged and clear view.

How do you know that you are becoming a disciplined trader?

2010-10-05T18:57:00.002+05:30

You keep accurate records.

You maintain the minimum of four records—a trader’s spreadsheet, an equity curve, a trader’s diary, and an action plan. You scrupulously keep your records up to date and study them to learn from your experiences.

Your equity curve shows a steady uptrend with shallow draw downs.

The performance standard for professional money managers is 25% annual gain on the account, with no draw downs of more than 10% from peak equity. If you can match or exceed that, you are far ahead of the game.

You make your own trading plans.

Even when you get a terrific sounding tip from a friend, you do not get swept up in the excitement. You either ignore it or put it through your own decision-making screens.

You do not chat about your trading.

You may discuss a technical point or a closed trade with a trusted friend, but you never ask for advice on an open trade. You do not disclose your positions so as not to expose yourself to unwanted advice or tie up your ego in the process.

You learn all you can about the market you’re trading.

You have a good grasp of the main technical, fundamental, intermarket, and political factors that may impact your stock or a future.

You grade yourself on the adherence to your written plan.

Imagine you are an employee, and the boss has left on an extended vacation, leaving you to manage his money by following his plan. When he returns he will reward or punish you based on how faithfully you followed his plan.

You allot a certain amount of time to the markets each day.

You download data each day, put it through your battery of tests and screens, and write down the results and plans for tomorrow. You allocate time in your daily schedule to make trading a regular activity and not something you do catch as catch can.

You monitor selected markets daily, regardless of their activity.

You avoid the typical beginners’ error of monitoring markets only when they are active and “interesting.” You know that strong moves spring from periods of relative inactivity.

You learn and are open to new ideas, but are skeptical of claims.

You read market books and magazines, attend conferences, participate in online forums, but you do not accept any ideas without testing them on your own data.

You follow your money management rules as if your life depended on them—because your financial life does.

If you have good money management, most decent trading systems will make you money in the long run.

IFCI - Weekly charts

2010-10-05T09:43:00.003+05:30

Texmo pipes

2010-09-22T10:33:00.001+05:30

Texmo pipes short term support at 57 and Medium term support at 50 can target 74 abv that can double in next few months.

TIMKEN

2010-09-21T19:13:00.003+05:30

Timken accumulation seen in the weekly charts can enter this stock for Medium term target of another 20 to 30% form here (180 to 200) short term trader can hold with sl 150 and Medium term trader can hold with sl 1300.

My Views

2010-09-21T18:26:00.002+05:30

Everyone ( most of the retailers) have left out of this unexpected massive bull run, now those who have left out are waiting for correction to get entry, but whether they find one is million dolor question and whether the market has topped out or not!!!! Many Analyst feel this is liquidity driven market, I think without liquidity no market would move. So, it's better to stay out of other's comments ( including me) just follow your own code of rules that suits you and strictly follow it.

Now coming to the current scenario, to be frank, I never expected Nifty to cross 5555 without reasonable correction but my risk with lower and was just 50 to 70 points, once crossing over 5555 it was has expected for a good 10% run and now nearing the all time highs. Now rather than just finding out what Nifty would be targeting, there are plenty of opportunity in the mid-cap and small caps( cats and dogs) but one has to be very careful in exiting rather picking them, otherwise could end up in holding them for once for all, during life time.

One thing is very peculiar about this market is it's run up has been not secular that is most of the previous all time stocks (like Reliance, Bharti(all telecom stocks), Tata Steel, Rel. cap, Rel infra, Dlf( all realty stocks), Punj, Gmr Infra, J.P Associates, Suzlon, A.C.C., ICICI bank etc etc) are trading nearly 20 to 50 % below the previous bull run.This market is simply started by Auto & I.T stocks , carried on by Oil marketing companies along with Banks, other than these sectors most of the other sector's far lagging behind.

I feel the top of this market should be around, when your hear form your vegetable vendor, or discussion in buses, trains or during the interval in cinemas house etc etc that Nifty is going towards 10000 and Sensex towards 30000. Till then trade with strict stop loss, otherwise this time like unexpected upwards move there can be unexpected down move anytime. Relaxation or laziness would be disastrous in these type of markets.

Would try to be update stock specific idea's at least once in week.

Wish you a Happy and Careful trading days ahead.

Would be shortly updating..................

2010-08-26T09:31:00.003+05:30

Momentum stocks

2010-07-01T18:49:00.003+05:30

Dear Sir,

Further to my chat with you, I am attaching a few basic charts, could you pl help me with my analysis.

Here is what I apprehend-

Essar Oil	Close to 200 DMA, does it mean that any breakout above 200 DMA would give it a sharp rise?
Hindalco	2 consecutive close below 200 dma- does it indicate more pain?
Advanta	Broken the resistance and moved above with huge volume- any move above 529 could be sharp ?
Noidatoll	Broken 50 DMA after a long time ? What do we see..

Thanks and regards,

Thanks, for you Query and here is how I approach with stock selections , comments are added in the chart itself - First ESSAR OIL, would added other's shortly,

ADVANTA

Reliance with weekly chart

2010-06-09T19:19:00.000+05:30

Comments are attached with the chart.

Gold update with weekly chart

2010-05-27T17:24:00.001+05:30

Gold weekly chart indicating rising wedge with negative divergence in MACD and RSI. Very important indicator that happens rarely.
Gold is almost on the verge of topping out, if fails to move above $ 1250 towards $ 1340. Any sign of weakness should confirm with price movement i.e., break of the lower trend line, at present around @ 1130.
Longs should book profit at higher levels or move the stop loss as it moves.
Break of rising wedge target gives $ 680 - whether it's possible or not, or we believe or not, at this point of time, it seems far from reality but that how market's move.
Gold after hitting nearly $ 750 in 1980"s tested $ 260(lost almost 2/3 rd of price value). So, any target is not invalid in the game of speculation. Important factor to be noted at this point of time is watch for the lower rising trendline to breached for weakness to take over, till then trade inside the wedge for higher target.

Reliance with weekly chart

2010-05-17T11:52:00.002+05:30

Nifty update with chart

2010-05-17T11:28:00.001+05:30

Basic tenets of swing trading - Linda Bradford – Street smarts.

2010-05-06T16:43:00.002+05:30

· Stay in one time frame! Yes, it is important to be aware of the big picture, but it should not affect where you get into or out of a trade or how you manage it. Don't turn short-term scalps into "big picture" trades.

· When in doubt, get out! If the market goes dull and quiet after you enter a trade and makes no progress in the direction of your entry, do not wait until your stop is hit. Just get out! Seek a more active market or better trading opportunity. All of the strategies of swing trading techniques should reward you immediately. If they don't, it is likely your trade will turn into a losing one.

· Don't trade in quiet, dull markets. Dow, Livermore, Rhea, Taylor, Gann-all the greats say this over and over. There must be activity and liquidity in order to trade profitably.

· Don't carry losing positions overnight. Exit and try entering at a more favorable level the next day.

· If the market offers you a windfall profit on a trade, lock it in! (Windfall means a much bigger profit than anticipated.) Take profits on half or all of the position. Trail an extremely tight stop on any balance!

· Finally, remember that both in short-term trading and mechanical systems, the distribution of winners is skewed. Most of a month's profits might come from only two or three big trades. Much of the time the individual profits may seem small, but more importantly the losses should be small, too.

It is vitally important to lock in the best trades. Be defensive and don't give back profits when swing trading!

Nifty update with chart

2010-05-04T18:23:00.001+05:30

Click the image for clear n enlarge version.

Publish Post

Gold update

2010-05-04T18:11:00.003+05:30

Click the image for larger n clear view.

Some basic rules for successful trading

2010-05-04T12:52:00.002+05:30

Money	:	Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose

Trend	:	Always ride the trend and never try to decide a trend

Selection	:	Always select the stocks, for there are always bullish stocks in a bearish market and bearish stocks in a bullish market.

Timing:	:	Never initiate your trade at the opening bell, wait for a market to make initial high and lows

Quantity		Always while trading keep the amount same in each trade and not the quantity, ex: if have traded 50000/- in one, trade 50000/- in another rather than trading 100 shares in each trade. i.e. keep the trading amount same in each trade rather than the trading quantity.

Learning	:	Blaming market is trying to hide your mistakes from yourselves ,making fool of one’s self, thereby losing an opportunity to learn, markets are never wrong, the blame lies with trader.

Introspection	:	Always introspect at the end of every trading day, next day will work wonders.

Risk/ reward ratio	:	Never ever enter a trade where the risk to reward ratio is less than 1:4

No of Trades	:	Always trade in 2 to 3 stocks at any given point of time, how lucrative the market be, be master of some than being jack of all, keep buffering profits, you’ll find stock markets a wonderful place to be in...

Stop loss	:	Stop loss is essence for trading, never trade without a stop loss, though adequate liverage should be taken while placing stop losses in a volatile market.

Averaging	:	Averaging has no place in day trading, either u get out of the trade with the stop loss getting triggered or get the target

Success	:	Always use trailing stop loss, when the trade initiated, starts bearing results, to get maximum profit.

Greed:	:	Always be ready to take the profits home, if the initial trades have worked for you, be ready to go home , do not trade for the broker

Confience:	:	If the markets are not making you confident do not trade, just for the sake of trading , wait for clear signals

Rumors	:	Never trade on news or rumors, always follow the levels, remember, news does not make levels, it just triggers levels.

Levels	:	Never get panicked or exited by the happenings on the screen, stick to the levels and stop loss, else you’ll always end up loser

Psycology	:	Never follow the mass [the people sitting besides u], for 95% of them do not understand market

Decision	:	Be ready to book loss if the ship starts to sink, do no pray , just jump.

Patience:	:	Patience is the name of the game, always exercise patience and restrain during the course of trading, for if a couple of trades have worked against u, take a gap and try to get the trend.

Speculation:	:	Check on the speculative tendency, every rise or fall has a logic behind it, just do not be speculative, without logic.

Failures	:	Always treat failures [losses] if any, as an learning opportunity, for every failure opens the doors of success, failures should be used as a source of motivation rather than depression.