Markit Economics

China’s manufacturing sector growth slowdown continues

Thu, 24 May 2012 09:00:00 GMT

A further deterioration in Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions was signalled by May’s ‘flash’ HSBC manufacturing PMI survey. At 48.7, down from 49.3, the headline PMI signalled a worsening of business conditions for the seventh successive month. Looking at the component indexes that make up the headline PMI number, further reductions in total new orders, employment, stocks of pre-production goods and shorter lead times exerted a negative influence on May’s PMI reading. This was slightly offset by a rise in manufacturing production, albeit marginal, for the first time in three months.

Flash PMIs: Manufacturing trends deteriorate in May, though US remains a bright spot

Thu, 24 May 2012 07:00:00 GMT

Flash manufacturing PMIs – Markit’s survey-based indicators of business conditions in the Eurozone, US and China – all deteriorated in May, pointing to a weakening of global economic trends. The US nevertheless continued to record expansion, remaining a bright spot in an otherwise downbeat picture of global manufacturing decline.

Week ahead economic calendar [21 - 25 May]: Flash PMIs to signal health of global economy

Fri, 18 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Flash PMIs from Markit will provide updates on economic conditions during May for the Eurozone, China and – for the first time – the United States. Policymakers around the world have highlighted the Eurozone crisis as a growing risk to the economic outlook, and the release of the new Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI for the US on the same day as a similar index for China and the manufacturing and services flash PMIs for the Eurozone, Germany and France will provide the first picture of how the escalating euro area crisis has affected global economic trends in May.

Japan GDP beats consensus

Thu, 17 May 2012 13:00:00 GMT

Japan’s economy returned to growth in the first quarter of 2012. Gross domestic product (GDP) rose 1.0% on a quarterly basis, which translates into an annualised rate of growth of 4.1% – outperforming other developed nations, such as the United States, by a wide margin. A 0.2% economic contraction in the final quarter of 2011 was meanwhile revised to flat.

UK unemployment falls and employment rises in first quarter

Wed, 16 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The latest UK labour market data present a welcome upbeat picture of the economy, more in line with the economic growth signalled by the business surveys so far this year than the gloomy picture of recession indicated by official data.

US industrial production rebounds in April, but trend rate weakens

Wed, 16 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Better-than-expected industrial production numbers point to an ongoing economic recovery in the US at the start of the second quarter. However, as with many other indicators seen recently, the underlying trend in the data suggests that economic growth may have slowed since earlier in the year.

Eurozone stagnates in first quarter

Tue, 15 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone economy stagnated in the first quarter, according to official data, meaning the region has so far avoided a slide back into recession. The outcome was slightly better than the business surveys had indicated, with the PMIs signalling a very mild downturn in GDP. However, the better outcome largely reflected a surprisingly strong GDP gain in Germany, and the rest of the region is clearly struggling, with marked downturns now taking place in the periphery. The business surveys also suggest that these downturns gathered momentum at the start of the second quarter.

Eurozone industrial production falls at steepest rate since 2009

Mon, 14 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone industrial production fell 0.3% in March, according to official data, providing further evidence to suggest that the Eurozone is slipping deeper into another recession. The drop in March means production declined 0.5% in the first three months of the year, raising the likelihood of the economy having contracted for a second consecutive quarter.

Week ahead economic calendar [14 - 18 May]: Deteriorating GDP data to add to Eurozone political woes

Fri, 11 May 2012 15:00:00 GMT

Political tensions in the euro area look set to heat up again with the publication of economic growth data for the first quarter. Official data are likely to show that gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.2% across the Eurozone as a whole. Coming on the back of a 0.3% decline in the final quarter of last year, the data would put the region back into a technical recession.

UK construction output slumps 4.8% in first quarter

Fri, 11 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

More gloom on the economy from the Office for National Statistics this morning, with a huge downward revision to the performance of the construction industry in the first quarter. The data compound the dilemma facing the policymakers at the Bank of England, whereby economic weakness is adding to the case for further stimulus, but any stimulus is likely to push inflation even higher above the Bank's target.

China’s monthly “data dump” disappoints in April

Fri, 11 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

China’s monthly “data dump” surprised to the downside in April, raising the likelihood of additional monetary easing by the authorities in an attempt to stimulate growth.

European Commission anticipates European recovery later this year

Fri, 11 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone is forecast to contract in 2012, according to the European Commission’s spring forecasts, but the UK should manage to grow by 0.5%. However, even the UK’s relatively better performance pales compared to the 2.0% and 1.9% growth forecast for the US and Japan respectively.

UK manufacturing rebounds in March but underlying trend remains lacklustre

Thu, 10 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Manufacturing output rebounded strongly in March, after a steep fall in February, but a drop in output of the energy sector meant the wider measure of industrial production fell during the month. The data provide some reassurance that the UK manufacturing sector is not on its knees, but on the other hand it is clearly struggling to grow in the face of weak demand at home, recession in continental Europe and weaker growth in export markets further afield.

Bank of England leaves policy unchanged

Thu, 10 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Bank of England left policy unchanged at its May meeting, leaving interest rates at a record low of 0.5% and its asset purchase programme at £325 billion. The bank is clearly torn between the need to inject more stimulus into a flagging economy and the need to retain some inflation-fighting credibility.

German exports hit record

Wed, 09 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

German exports and imports both hit record highs in March, but growth of exports slowed further from the recent peak seen in January as demand from within the Eurozone fell sharply.

Italy’s economic woes deepen at start of second quarter

Wed, 09 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Latest data have painted a bleak picture of economic conditions in Italy. Confidence has fallen sharply among consumers and businesses alike, unemployment is at a record high and those in work have seen real take-home pay fall sharply in recent months. Furthermore, business surveys suggest that the rate of decline of GDP has accelerated at the start of the second quarter.

German industrial production rises in March, but upturn to prove short-lived

Tue, 08 May 2012 13:00:00 GMT

A surge in construction output helped drive better than expected growth of German industrial activity in March, but the underlying trend remains weak and is following the survey data, which point to a renewed downturn in April.

European downturn spreads across broad base of sectors in April

Tue, 08 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Mainly reflecting woes in the Eurozone, sector PMI data for the EU as a whole signalled a widespread decline in output at the start of the second quarter. Among 22 sectors covered, only Food Producers – the classic defensive sector – recorded growth of output. All others registered contraction or stagnation and, worryingly, Banking was the worst-performing service sector. That said, the outlook among survey participants in the sector is more promising than four years ago.

Markit Flash US Manufacturing PMI

Tue, 08 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Markit, a leading, global financial information services company, today announced it is adding the United States of America to its Flash PMI family, a series of advance estimates of final PMI data. The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI will be the earliest available indicator of business conditions across the U.S. manufacturing sector each month. It will also complement Markit’s Flash China and Flash Eurozone PMIs to make the Flash series the first snapshot of global manufacturing operating conditions every month.

US employment growth disappoints again, but jobless rate falls

Fri, 04 May 2012 16:00:00 GMT

Weak hiring growth in April marked a further disappointment for the US economy. But unemployment is coming down, while economic data more generally is sending an ambiguous growth signal. Policymakers are therefore likely to wait for further clues as to the direction the economy has taken.

Week ahead economic calendar [07 - 11 May]: Elections to test Eurozone austerity resolve

Fri, 04 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

In a relatively quiet week of data releases, economics will take a back seat to politics. Elections in France and Greece, plus a regional election in Germany, all have the potential to escalate the Eurozone crisis by raising anxieties about fiscal discipline. The elections are dominated by the growth-versus-austerity debate, especially in the face of recent survey data showing a deepening recession in the region. Both France and Greece are now suffering steep rates of economic decline, according to Markit’s PMI surveys, and malaise appears to have spread to Germany.

PMI data signal slight improvement in China’s growth profile

Fri, 04 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

April data highlighted a renewed expansion of business activity in China, with the seasonally adjusted HSBC Composite PMI Output Index – designed to give a single figure snapshot of monthly changes in business conditions – rising from 49.9 to 51.4. The uptick in the headline index reflected stronger service sector growth – the highest in six months – and a slower rate of decline in factory output.

Rate of decline in Spanish service sector activity accelerates as economic crisis persists

Fri, 04 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

There appears little end in sight to the problems afflicting the Spanish service sector and wider economy so far this year. April PMI data pointed to accelerated contractions in output and new business. Anecdotal evidence highlighted similar reasons as have been suggested throughout much of the past year, namely ongoing contractions in demand, particularly in domestic markets given the economic crisis in Spain. While it is hoped that conditions will improve over the coming year and support a rise in activity, there were few fundamental reasons for optimism reported by survey respondents.

April sees sharpest contraction in Italian services activity since June 2009

Fri, 04 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

These services figures joined earlier-released retail and manufacturing data in showing faster contractions in activity during April that, with the exception of the latter, are approaching the rates of decline seen at the depth of the 2008/9 recession. Confidence levels sank, with service providers now less optimistic about a rise in output in the forthcoming 12 months.

New business falls at sharpest rate for three years during April, according to France PMI

Fri, 04 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

French service providers reported a sharp fall in new business during April, with the rate of contraction the fastest for three years, matching the trend seen in the manufacturing sector. This evidence of a broad-based deterioration in demand conditions is concerning, and is only partially mitigated by hopes of an improvement once the presidential race is concluded. Indeed, service providers’ confidence regarding future activity dipped to a three-month low in April, suggesting that firms are becoming increasingly nervous about the outlook.

Modest increase in German service sector output

Fri, 04 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The final Germany Services Business Activity Index posted 52.2 in April, little-changed from 52.1 in March but lower than the earlier ‘flash’ estimate of 52.6. The latest reading indicated an increase in service sector output for the seventh consecutive month.

Eurozone downturn deepens at start of second quarter

Fri, 04 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

At 46.7 in April, down from 49.1 in March, the Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index signalled the fastest rate of decline since last October and one of the steepest contractions since mid-2009. The headline index also came in well below its earlier flash estimate of 47.4.

UK PMI surveys hit five-month low at start of second quarter

Thu, 03 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The PMI business surveys signalled an easing in the pace of expansion in April, with the rate of growth dropping to the weakest since November. The weighted average of the Output Index from the three PMI surveys fell from 55.2 in March to a five-month low of 53.2 in April. Growth slowed in manufacturing, services and construction, with the former reporting the weakest pace of expansion and the latter the strongest. The reduced rate of expansion of business activity reflected a similar easing in growth of new orders, which likewise increased across all three sectors at slowest rate since November. Manufacturers even reported a drop in new orders compared with March, driven by the steepest fall in export orders for almost three years.

ISM surveys indicate slower US growth and weaker job creation in April

Thu, 03 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The ISM non-manufacturing PMI for the US signalled a sharp slowdown, contrasting with the upbeat message from the recent manufacturing sister survey and raising fears that the pace of US economic growth has slowed further as it entered the second quarter.

Spanish manufacturing PMI drops to lowest since June 2009

Wed, 02 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Operating conditions in the Spanish manufacturing sector deteriorated sharply again in April. New orders fell at a substantial pace, while the rate of contraction in output accelerated. Spare capacity led to further reductions in backlogs of work and employment. Meanwhile, firms lowered output prices in the face of strong competitive pressures and weak demand, despite robust input cost inflation.

Italian industrial new orders fall at fastest rate for three years

Wed, 02 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

April data showed business conditions within the Italian manufacturing sector in sharp decline. The fastest month-on-month fall in incoming new business for three years dragged the PMI to its lowest reading in six months and sparked marked reductions in both employment and output, though, as in March, the drop in production levels was still too little to prevent a further accumulation of stocks of finished goods.

Greek manufacturers indicate further steep deterioration of operating conditions during April

Wed, 02 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

April proved to be another difficult month for Greek manufacturers, with latest data again showing steep contractions across a number of key variables measured by the survey.

Manufacturing downturn deepens as weakness spreads across euro area

Wed, 02 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Manufacturing in the Eurozone took a further lurch deeper into a new recession in April, with the PMI suggesting that output fell at worryingly steep quarterly rate of over 2%. Job losses rose to the highest for over two years as firms suffered a steepening downturn in order books, suggesting firms are not expecting the gloom to lift any time soon.

UK manufacturing suffers export set-back

Tue, 01 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK’s manufacturing sector came close to stagnation in April as firms reported a steep fall in export orders. The headline PMI – a composite index derived form various sub-indices including output, new orders and employment – fell from 51.9 in March to 50.5, its lowest level since December and close to the 50.0 line which signals no change in business conditions on the prior month. The weakness of the PMI was attributable to the first fall in new orders since November, slower output growth and ongoing sluggish job creation.

US economic growth slows to disappointing 2.2% in first quarter

Fri, 27 Apr 2012 17:00:00 GMT

The US economy remains a bright light in the global economy, although the light is hardly blinding, and also shows some signs of fading. GDP rose an annualised 2.2%, the economy notching up another quarter of reasonable growth in the first three months of the year. At face value, the figure is a disappointment, coming in lower than the 2.5% consensus forecast among economists, and down from 3.0% in the fourth quarter of last year. However, once stock building has been accounted for, the underlying rate of growth picked up, from an annualised rate of 1.1% late last year to 1.6%.

Week ahead economic calendar [30 Apr – 4 May]: Data to highlight global economic trends at start of second quarter

Fri, 27 Apr 2012 15:00:00 GMT

The first comprehensive insight into global business conditions at the start of the second quarter are provided by the PMIs. Euro area policymakers will meet to set interest rates at a time of heightened economic uncertainty for the single currency area. Meanwhile, the all-important US non-farm payrolls number is released. The forecast at present is for a 175k increase, according to a poll conducted by Reuters.

Eurozone retail sales fall at strongest pace since late-2008

Fri, 27 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone retail sector endured a torrid start to the second quarter, according to PMI data from Markit. Sales fell rapidly on a month-on-month basis, as did revenues compared with a year ago. Moreover, weakness extended across the three largest economies, as the German retail sector joined those of France and Italy in contraction.

US Durable goods orders fall at fastest rate for over three years

Wed, 25 Apr 2012 16:00:00 GMT

Further evidence of the US manufacturing sector losing growth momentum at the end of the first quarter were provided by a steep drop in durable goods orders in March. The data add to other signs that the US economy is repeating the pattern seen in the previous two years, whereby initial robust growth soon fades. Orders slumped 4.2% month-on-month during March, the steepest drop since January 2009. The downturn was led by a 12.5% collapse in orders for transportation goods. However, even excluding transport goods, orders fell 1.1% during the month, which was the worst performance since the start of last year.

Is the UK really back in recession?

Wed, 25 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK has sunk back into a recession, if the official first estimate of economic growth in the first quarter is to be believed. However, the underlying strength of the economy is probably much more robust than these data suggest. The danger is that these gloomy data deliver a fatal blow to the fragile revival of consumer and business confidence seen so far this year, harming the recovery and even sending the country back into a ‘real’ recession.

UK borrowing hits target in 2011-12 despite March disappointment

Tue, 24 Apr 2012 13:00:00 GMT

The UK's public sector deficit came in on target at £126bn in 2011-12, down sharply from £136.8bn in 2010-11, despite higher than expected borrowing in March. However, business survey data bode well for the government to meet its target for 2012-13, though it is unlikely to be an easy ride.

China’s growth slide contributing to labour market weakness

Mon, 23 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The latest ‘flash’ manufacturing PMI survey findings for China highlighted continued manufacturing weakness at the start of the second quarter, with the headline seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) coming in below the 50.0 mark that separates growth from contraction for the sixth month in succession. By rising from 48.3 to 49.1 in April, however, the index pointed to a slower pace of deterioration than in March, largely reflecting slower rates of decline of manufacturing production and new orders.

Eurozone sees stronger rate of decline at start of second quarter

Mon, 23 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell to a five-month low in April, according to the preliminary ‘flash’ reading which is based on around 85% of usual monthly replies. The index fell for the third month in a row to 47.4, down from 49.1 in March, to signal a faster rate of decline of private sector economic activity. Output has fallen seven times in the past eight months.

Week ahead economic calendar [23 - 27 Apr]: Markit flash PMIs to provide glimpse of second quarter growth profiles

Fri, 20 Apr 2012 15:00:00 GMT

A busy week of economic data releases starts with the publication of flash manufacturing numbers for China, which will provide the first indication of how the world’s second-largest economy is faring at the start of the second quarter. Attention will then shift to the Eurozone, with flash PMIs for France, Germany and the single currency area as a whole released in quick succession.

US Fed surveys hint at waning growth in April

Thu, 19 Apr 2012 16:00:00 GMT

The Philadelphia Fed survey of business conditions for April came in weaker than expected. The survey’s main index of business activity fell for the first time in five months, down from 12.5 in March to 8.5, reaching a three-month low.

US jobless claims trend higher for second week running

Thu, 19 Apr 2012 15:00:00 GMT

Initial claims for unemployment benefit in the US fell by 2,000 last week to 386,000. With the prior figure revised up to 388,000, the four-week moving average, which provides a better indication of the trend in the data, rose to 374,750, up for the second week running from the low of 363,000 seen at the end of March. The increase in claims is certainly a disappointment, especially as it follows a slowdown in employment growth in March. Non-farm payrolls had risen strongly in the first two months of the year but lost some momentum in March, with just 120,000 jobs added (the lowest rise since October and down sharply from 275,000 in January and 240,000 in February).

UK Business confidence surged higher in March

Thu, 19 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

UK business confidence surged higher in March, according to the first quarter IPA Bellwether survey of marketing trends, conducted by Markit. The survey, based on a panel of 300 senior marketing executives in UK-based companies, showed views on companies’ own financial prospects improving to the highest for two years, rebounding sharply from a near three-year low at the end of last year.

UK unemployment falls from 16-year high

Wed, 18 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Latest official data show a welcome drop in UK unemployment, but the labour market clearly remains very weak. High unemployment and low pay growth look set to continue to act as significant drags on economic growth in coming months.

China’s economic growth slide continues in the first quarter

Fri, 13 Apr 2012 11:00:00 GMT

China’s first quarter economic growth slowed to its weakest in nearly three years, according to official statistics published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) this morning. Gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annual rate of 8.1%, a marked slowdown on growth of 8.9% seen in the final quarter of last year and slower than many analysts had expected. The data were broadly in line with the Markit-compiled PMI surveys of manufacturing and service sector business conditions, which showed activity stagnating in March to round off the worst quarter for three years.

Week ahead economic calendar [16 - 20 Apr]: Data to round off Q1 global growth picture and provide insight into April trends

Fri, 13 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

US industrial production and retail sales to provide further clues on first quarter growth, while Eurozone surveys to highlight recession risk. There is no lack of data releases for the UK, where official data on retail sales, inflation and the labour market are accompanied by the publication of the minutes from the Bank of England's latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Output growth returns across EU sectors in Q1, but weak new business inflows lead to falling backlogs

Tue, 10 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

EU PMI data broken down into seven broad industry groups signalled a broad-based improvement in activity trends since the final quarter of 2011. Five registered growth, led by Technology, while Healthcare output was broadly stable and Consumer Services registered a weaker contraction.

Week ahead economic calendar [09 - 13 Apr]: Focus moves East as attentions shifts to China’s slowdown

Thu, 05 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

China takes centre stage in the economic diary, with the publication of key official statistics, including first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) and March data for industrial production, inflation, retail sales and international trade. The data will be scoured for further clues as to just how rapidly growth in the world’s second-largest economy is slowing, and to what extent the authorities may need to adjust policy.

US PMI surveys signal weaker economic growth in March, but still point to best quarter for a year with hiring running at fastest rate for over six years

Wed, 04 Apr 2012 18:00:00 GMT

The ISM non-manufacturing PMI for March disappointed, falling on February, but the survey remains in robust expansion territory. Combined with the ISM data on manufacturing, the surveys point to robust economic growth in the first quarter, with a solid rate of job creation accelerating further in March.

German industrial orders rise in February, but trend remains one of falling demand

Wed, 04 Apr 2012 15:00:00 GMT

German industrial orders disappointed again in February, reinforcing recent survey evidence which suggests that the manufacturing sector is struggling in the face of weak underlying demand from domestic and export markets. Germany is nevertheless still likely to have expanded in the first quarter, avoiding recession, but a return to contraction in the second quarter cannot be ruled out.

UK economy avoids recession by registering strongest quarter for a year as growth accelerates in March

Wed, 04 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

PMI data signalled that UK economic growth picked up in March to round off the strongest quarter for a year. The robust increase in output signalled by the PMI surveys suggests that the UK economy has escaped a slide back into recession. An upturn in business confidence in both construction and service sectors bodes well for future growth, though soft underlying order books may weigh on manufacturing.

Japan’s economy returned to growth in Q1, according to PMIs

Wed, 04 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Japan’s private sector ended the first quarter on a positive note, with both business activity and new orders rising at series record rates. What is most encouraging is that recent growth has been broad-based across manufacturing and services, a trend rarely seen in the history of the series. Manufacturing PMI data published last week showed factory output rising at the fastest rate in five months, while growth of service sector activity hit its highest on record.

PMI signals new recession in Eurozone

Wed, 04 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Latest PMI data provided further evidence of a mild contraction of the Eurozone private sector economy during March. The latest decline also meant that output fell over the first quarter as a whole, raising the likelihood that the economy has fallen back into technical recession. At 49.1 in March, the Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell to a three-month low, but came in above the earlier flash estimate of 48.7.

Solid upturn in global economy continued in March

Wed, 04 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

March PMI data rounded off a solid start to the year for the global economy. At 54.6, the JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index posted its second-highest reading in 13 months and was only marginally off February's high of 55.4. Output increased in both the manufacturing and service sectors.

US manufacturers boost output and payrolls in March, but order book growth slips due to weak export sales

Mon, 02 Apr 2012 17:00:00 GMT

The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose from 52.4 in February to 53.4 in March. With the exception of January’s recent peak of 54.1, the March reading was the highest since last June. For the first quarter as a whole, the PMI averaged 53.3, its strongest calendar quarter since the second quarter of last year.

Explaining China’s mixed PMI signals

Mon, 02 Apr 2012 17:00:00 GMT

The two PMI surveys for China released over the weekend provided a sharply divergent assessment of the health of the manufacturing industry in March. The Markit-compiled manufacturing PMI showed the sector slipping further into contraction – confirming the survey’s earlier ‘flash’ estimate published on March 22. In contrast, the NBS/CFLP survey pointed to the strongest improvement in operating conditions for a year. Why is this?

UK manufacturing growth accelerates but cost pressures surge higher

Mon, 02 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

March rounded off a positive start to 2012 for UK manufacturing, but conditions in the sector remain tough overall. Output and new orders expanded throughout the opening quarter, with rates of increase ticking higher at the end of Q1. However, the increase in output was heavily supported by a depletion in backlogs of work and record inventory building. Cost inflationary pressures are also intensifying due to high oil and metal prices.

Eurozone manufacturing downturn worsens in March

Mon, 02 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

At 47.7 in March, the seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to a three-month low (unchanged from the earlier flash estimate). New orders contracted at a faster rate than in February, leading to falling output and further job losses.

Greek manufacturing sector registers further steep contractions of output, new orders and employment

Mon, 02 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Operating conditions in the Greek manufacturing sector remained extremely challenging in March, with the headline PMI again posting well below the 50.0 no-change mark. Despite improving on February’s survey low of 37.7, March’s PMI reading of 41.3 was indicative of sharp manufacturing retrenchment.

Global manufacturing growth holds steady through Q1

Mon, 02 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The global manufacturing sector posted further modest expansions in production, new orders and employment at the end of Q1 2012. However, input cost inflationary pressure continued to surge upwards, mainly as a result of high oil and transportation prices. At 51.1 in March, little-changed from 51.2 in February, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI posted above the no-change mark of 50.0 for the fourth month running.

China: Manufacturing output decreases at the second-fastest rate in three years

Sun, 01 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

March PMI data showed Chinese manufacturing production falling for the fourth time in the past five months. Factory output was reduced largely in response to lacklustre demand from domestic and external markets. New orders fell at the fastest rate in 2012 so far, while new export business decreased for a second month in succession.

Japan’s manufacturing sector ends Q1 on a positive note

Fri, 30 Mar 2012 11:00:00 GMT

Japan’s manufacturing sector climbed another rung on the growth ladder in March, rounding off a positive first quarter of 2012. This was signalled by the seasonally adjusted Markit/JMMA Purchasing Managers’ Index rising from 50.5 to a seven-month high of 51.1. The data add to evidence that Japan’s economy will return to growth in the first quarter, after contracting on a quarterly basis in Q4 2011, and chime with the sharp upward revision of Japan’s first-quarter growth forecast by the OECD earlier this week to 3.4% annualised.

Week ahead economic calendar [02 - 06 Apr]: PMIs, payrolls and policymaking fill busy week of economic news

Fri, 30 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

A tightly-filled week of economic data releases starts with a flood of manufacturing PMI releases. February data had shown only modest global growth of manufacturing, and March’s flash PMIs for the euro area and China have already shown the single currency area to be back in recession and growth slowing in the world’s second-largest economy.

UK: SMEs set to lead jobs growth over next 12 months, but large firms most upbeat regarding capex

Wed, 28 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Small and medium sized companies are set to be the main drivers of employment growth in the UK manufacturing sector over the next 12 months, according to the latest findings of the KPMG Global Business Outlook survey, compiled by Markit. However, the opposite is true with regards to capital expenditure, towards which large firms report the most positive intentions.

UK retail sales suggest far weaker start to the year than previously hoped

Fri, 23 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Initial upbeat news about consumer spending at the start of 2012 has withered away with news of a steep fall in retail sales in February and a far smaller rise than previously thought in January. The consumer is unlikely to have contributed much, if anything, to economic growth in the first quarter. If the UK escapes a double-dip recession, it may be by the smallest of margins.

Week ahead economic calendar [26 - 30 March]: Improved US indicators to contrast with Eurozone weakness

Fri, 23 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The message from the Eurozone flash PMIs that the region has likely sunk into another recession will be reflected in weak European Commission-sponsored business and consumer surveys, as well as the German IFO survey for March. German and Eurozone consumer price inflation numbers will also be watched for signs that higher oil prices could cause worries for policymakers at a time when signs of a renewed downturn will be applying pressure for more stimulus.

Eurozone slides back into recession as output falls at stronger rate in March

Thu, 22 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell from 49.3 in February to a three-month low of 48.7 in March, according to the preliminary ‘flash’ reading, which is based on around 85% of usual monthly replies. The latest reading signals a contraction in business activity for the second successive month, and the sixth decline in the past seven months.

China Manufacturing PMI falls in March to round off worst quarter for three years

Thu, 22 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

PMI survey data, compiled by Markit on behalf of HSBC, showed a steepening rate of decline of China’s manufacturing sector at the end of the first quarter. The headline HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 48.1 in March, from February’s four-month high of 49.6. Moreover, the PMI was at the second-lowest level in three years, with only last November (47.7) seeing business conditions deteriorate at a steeper rate.

UK inflation falls to 15-month low, but proves stickier than expected

Tue, 20 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

UK inflation fell to a 15-month low in February, pushed down by lower energy prices and aggressive price discounting by retailers. Further falls are likely in coming months, as retailers continue to struggle to attract hard-pressed consumers, although high oil prices mean the Bank of England's expectation that inflation will drop below its 2.0% target by the end of the year could prove too optimistic.

Week ahead economic calendar [19-23 Mar]: Flash PMIs to provide insights into Chinese and Eurozone growth

Fri, 16 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The first indications of the health of the Eurozone and Chinese economies in March will be provided by the flash PMIs. February’s surveys had shown the Eurozone sliding back into contraction, suggesting the region may be facing a double-dip recession. China’s PMI surveys meanwhile showed growth at a four-month high, confounding widespread expectations of a slowdown in the first quarter. After recent signs of robust economic growth, further clues as to the health of the US economy will be provided by home sales, house prices and housing starts data. An important week in the UK sees the Chancellor deliver the Budget on 21 March.

US manufacturing output trend hits 14-year high

Fri, 16 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

US manufacturing output rose 2.4% in the three months to February, its strongest three-month period of expansion since 1998.

US inflation hits 10-month high on oil price rise

Fri, 16 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

US inflation rose sharply in February, as expected, driven higher by gasoline prices. Although the annual rate of core inflation fell, the combination of rising prices and high unemployment is likely to continue to act as a brake on consumer spending growth.

Business surveys and jobless claims hint at robust US economy in March

Thu, 15 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's cautiously upbeat tone earlier in the week has been followed by further encouraging news on economic growth, with a downturn in jobless claims and positive business surveys from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserves pointing to robust economic growth in March. However, producer price data also showed an upturn in inflationary pressures, providing a reminder that high oil prices threaten to subdue demand and push up inflation.

UK unemployment remains stubbornly high amid weak demand for staff

Wed, 14 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The latest batch of labour market data point to stubbornly high unemployment, with hiring remaining subdued. Pay pressures were meanwhile again extremely muted, providing good news on the inflation front but bad news for hopes of a further revival in consumer spending.

Buoyant US job creation as economic growth hits 12-month high

Mon, 12 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The mood among US employers continued to brighten in February. Ongoing buoyant job creation was reported as firms sought to boost capacity to meet rising demand amid the strongest economic growth seen for 12 months.

China on track for soft landing

Mon, 12 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

After scaling back China’s 2012 economic growth target at the annual National People’s Congress (NPC) last week, the authorities published a host of weaker-than-expected economic indicators for the January-February period on Friday. The data were nevertheless broadly in line with the Markit-compiled PMI surveys of manufacturing and service sector business conditions, and suggest that the world’s second-largest economy is still on track for a soft landing.

Oil price spike drives global manufacturers’ input costs higher

Fri, 09 Mar 2012 16:00:00 GMT

The start of 2012 has seen a much stronger upturn in global economic growth than many had anticipated at the end of last year. However, the better global growth profile has coincided with an upturn in price pressures, which will worry policymakers. Higher oil prices were a key driver behind the steepest increase in businesses’ input costs for nine months in February, but spare capacity in supply chains helped to keep input cost inflation well below that seen a year ago.

Week ahead economic calendar [12 - 16 Mar]: Attention shifts to the US with Fed update on health of the recovery

Fri, 09 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

After the high drama of the race to get bondholders to sign up to the debt restructuring and unlock Greece’s second bail-out package, attention shifts to the US next week, with the FOMC meeting on Tuesday. No change in policy is expected from the Fed, mirroring the lack of action from recent ECB and Bank of England meetings, but Chairman Bernanke's speech on Wednesday is likely to be more interesting.

EU autos sector downturn continues as production and order books decline

Thu, 08 Mar 2012 15:00:00 GMT

Production in the EU’s automobiles sector fell modestly in February, according to sector PMI data compiled by Markit. Output has decreased in each of the past five months, with the latest decline stronger than in January though slightly less steep than late last year. The drop in production contrasts with marginal growth seen across the EU manufacturing sector as a whole. Such a below-par performance is unusual for the autos sector since the financial crisis, with autos generally outperforming total manufacturing from mid-2009 to early-2011, with sales boosted in part over this period by scrappage schemes.

EU detailed sector data show growth divergences in February

Wed, 07 Mar 2012 11:00:00 GMT

Following PMI data that showed national growth divergences across the European Union in February, detailed sector data also highlight differences at the industry, supersector and sector levels. Out of the 22 sectors covered by PMI data, ten reported an increase in business activity in February compared with one month earlier, after accounting for seasonal influences. Output rose most strongly in the pharmaceuticals & biotechnology sector, followed by industrial engineering and industrial metals & mining.

Brazil GDP shows modest recovery in fourth quarter

Tue, 06 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Official GDP data showed that the Brazilian economy grew in Q4 2011, in contrast to the revised marginal contraction reported during Q3. GDP for the final three months of 2011 was 0.3% higher quarter-on-quarter, and 1.4% greater than the same period a year earlier. The 0.3% GDP growth was broadly in line with expectations, and was correctly identified by HSBC Brazil PMI data, compiled by Markit. The HSBC Composite Output Index that covers both manufacturing and services business activity has been above the 50.0 no-change mark that separates growth from contraction in each month since last October.

Risks of UK recession fade as economic growth maintained in February

Mon, 05 Mar 2012 11:00:00 GMT

UK economic growth slowed in February, according to the PMI surveys, but the country still looks likely to avoid a slide back into recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of falls in economic output – following a 0.2% contraction of gross domestic product (GDP) in the final quarter of last year.

Eurozone shows renewed contraction due to drop in services activity

Mon, 05 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell from 50.4 in January to 49.3 in February, dropping below the earlier flash estimate of 49.7. The final reading confirmed that business activity contracted in February, having briefly returned to growth in January following four months of decline at the end of last year.

Activity growth across China’s combined manufacturing and service sector the strongest in four months

Mon, 05 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

February data signalled renewed growth of business activity across the combined manufacturing and service sector, with the HSBC Composite Output Index up from 49.7 to 51.8. The overall expansion reflected a broad stabilisation of manufacturing production and stronger growth of service sector activity.

Week ahead economic calendar [05 – 09 Mar]: ECB to mull growth versus austerity in light of GDP and PMI numbers

Fri, 02 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Meetings at the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Canada are not expected to bring about any change in monetary policy, although many analysts continue to hold out hope for a 25 basis point cut in the ECB’s policy rate to help boost economic growth in the face of austerity. Attention will no doubt be more heavily focused on Greece’s progress in completing its debt restructuring. As far as economic data releases are concerned, the week’s diary is busy, commencing with services/non-manufacturing PMIs. After manufacturing PMIs lost some ground in the US and UK, and remained in contraction territory in the Eurozone and China, these numbers will be watched closely and round off the global PMI picture for February.

China Manufacturing PMI signals broad stabilisation of output, but new export business decreases

Thu, 01 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

February HSBC PMI data showed Chinese manufacturing output rising at a negligible rate. Intakes of new work fell for a fourth month in succession, while new export business decreased at the sharpest rate since June last year. Despite this, companies added to their staff numbers, with jobs growth the highest in nine months.

Signs of stabilisation in Eurozone manufacturing soured by survey-record contraction in Greece

Thu, 01 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone manufacturing sector showed further signs of stabilisation in February. The seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to a six-month high of 49.0, unchanged from the earlier flash estimate and above January’s 48.8.

Greece Manufacturing PMI at survey-record low

Thu, 01 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Greece's Manufacturing PMI, a composite indicator designed to provide a snapshot of the performance of the manufacturing economy, fell to a survey low of 37.7 in February. Data have been collected since May 1999. Moreover, the PMI has now posted sub-50.0 readings in each of the past 30 months.

UK Manufacturing PMI: output growth slows as order inflows stabilise and cost pressures rise sharply

Thu, 01 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

UK manufacturing production and employment continued to expand during February, according to the latest survey by Markit and CIPS. However, the headwinds faced by the sector were brought into sharper focus by the latest data. Inflows of total new work and export orders were both broadly unchanged following mild gains in January, while cost inflationary pressures rose sharply.

Japan Manufacturing PMI paints picture of stability; headwinds remain

Thu, 01 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

PMI survey data painted a broadly stable picture of Japanese manufacturing sector operating conditions in February, with the headline seasonally adjusted Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI dipping from 50.7 to 50.5. Companies noted higher output and new order levels, with growth centred on investment goods producers in both cases. In contrast, new export orders fell at a solid rate, providing evidence to suggest that domestic consumption was the principal driver of total new order growth during the month.

Global manufacturing growth continues despite rising cost pressures

Thu, 01 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI broadly held its ground at 51.1 in February, little-changed from 51.3 in January, to signal an improvement in operating conditions for the third straight month. Levels of output, new orders and employment all moved higher.

Week ahead economic calendar [27 Feb – 02 Mar]: More summits, ECB action and worldwide manufacturing PMIs

Fri, 24 Feb 2012 16:00:00 GMT

The G20 finance ministers’ meeting at the weekend and EU leaders summit on Thursday will no doubt ensure Greece and the Eurozone debt saga continue to dominate the headlines. Economy watchers will meanwhile be kept busy with a flood of data, including the world-wide manufacturing PMIs.

UK CBI survey joins PMI in signalling upbeat start to the year

Thu, 23 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

A buoyant CBI industrial trends survey provides further welcome evidence that the UK economy will avoid a slide back into recession. The CBI's measure of order book volumes surged higher in February, matched by a similar jump in the exports measure.

PMI data show China on track for soft landing

Wed, 22 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

A stabilisation of manufacturing business conditions indicates that the Chinese economy remains on course for a soft landing. The HSBC Manufacturing PMI for China rose to a four-month high in February, according to ‘flash’ data compiled by Markit. At 49.7, up from 48.8 in January, the index remained below the 50.0 mark which separates expansion from contraction for the seventh time in the past eight months, contrasting sharply with the strong expansion signalled at the start of 2011. However, the current level of the PMI indicated only a marginal deterioration of business conditions and suggests that economic growth continued to run at an annual rate of approximately 9.0%.

Eurozone business activity slips back into contraction in February

Wed, 22 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell to 49.7 in February, according to the preliminary ‘flash’ reading. The latest figure signalled a slight contraction in business activity, but was nevertheless the second-highest of the past six months and suggests that the Eurozone economy has stabilised over the first two months of the year.

Bank of England considered larger stimulus at latest policy meeting

Wed, 22 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The minutes from the latest Bank of England monetary policy meeting showed some members saw the need for a bigger stimulus than the £50bn asset purchase extension that was agreed. But recent data suggest that the Bank may hold fire on further asset purchases.

UK borrowing figures improve on back of record rise in tax receipts

Tue, 21 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

UK net public sector borrowing, excluding financial interventions made during the financial crisis, showed a surplus of £7.75bn in January, better than the expected £6.3bn surplus anticipated by economists polled by Reuters and the best figure for four years. The improvement takes the total deficit for the financial year-to-date to £93.5bn, down from £109.1bn last year.

February PMI data to provide first insight into China and Eurozone economies

Fri, 17 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Recent developments in Europe will keep next week’s focus firmly on the debt crisis and economic outlook. Stabilising the economies and finances of the EU will remain the critical pivots around which the crisis rotates. With this in mind, the coming week will see a raft of Markit PMI survey data for the Eurozone and China economies. The release of the minutes from the February 8th-9th meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will, meanwhile, give greater detail on the decision to raise QE by £50 billion. The week ends with the second estimate of fourth quarter UK GDP.

Growing signs of UK job market stabilisation despite further rise in unemployment

Wed, 15 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Latest official statistics suggest a stabilisation in the UK job market at the end of 2011. Although unemployment climbed 48,000 to 2.67 million in the three months to December, the latest rise was the smallest since last summer and well below the strong rates of increase seen in the interim.

Italy enters technical recession in Q4 2011

Wed, 15 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Italy’s economy shrank at a quarterly rate of 0.7% in the final quarter of last year, according to the official flash estimate. The decline in gross domestic product (GDP) was stronger than expected, and sharper than the unrevised 0.2% decline recorded for the three months to September 2011.

Week ahead economic calendar [13 – 17 Feb]: Economic data to provide insight into sustainability of global growth uplift

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Next week brings news on economic growth in the euro area for the final quarter of 2011. Data available so far, including a raft of weak business surveys, suggest that the region’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by around 0.6%. The health of the US economy also comes under scrutiny with the publication of industrial production, retail sales and inflation numbers. Meanwhile, the Bank of England's latest inflation and growth forecasts are published in its Inflation Report on Wednesday. The UK also sees inflation and labour market data during the week.

Improved manufacturing performance drives UK trade deficit to near nine-year low

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Data from the Office for National Statistics add to signs that the worst may be over for the UK economy and that a double-dip recession will be avoided. Industrial production grew a better-than-expected 0.5% on a monthly basis in December, with manufacturing output rising 1.0%. The improvement in manufacturing meant that the rate of decline over the three months to December - a more reliable guide to the underlying health of the sector - eased from 1.0% to 0.8%, the weakest reduction for three months. This tallies with data from the Markit/CIPS PMI survey, which showed a similar easing in December, but encouragingly also showed a resounding return to growth in January.

Germany: Industrial production collapses in December, but improvement still expected for January

Tue, 07 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Industrial production fell a huge 2.7% in December, adding to evidence that the German economy probably contracted in the final quarter of 2011. The consensus according to Reuters was for only a 0.3% decline in December.

Sector PMIs: Broad-based upturn across Europe’s private sector in January

Tue, 07 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Following PMI data that signalled a stabilisation of Eurozone output, faster UK growth and improved snapshots of the Czech and Polish manufacturing economies in January, EU PMI sector data highlight the broadbased nature of the uptick in performance across the region. Of 22 sectors covered, growth of output was signalled in 11.

China PMI data signal stagnation of output and employment at start of 2012, but forward-looking indicators raise hopes of soft-landing

Tue, 07 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Better than expected economic data for China at the start of 2012 provided encouraging news that the world’s sector largest economy can avoid a hard-landing, as its property market cools rather than collapses and the authorities fine-tune policy to help support economic growth.

Hiring picks up as US economy gathers steam in January

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 17:00:00 GMT

The flow of upbeat news on the health of the US economy shows no sign of abating. A better than expected non-manufacturing survey from the ISM added to a buoyant sister survey of manufacturing earlier in the week. The combined message from the two surveys is that the US economy grew at the fastest rate for ten months in January.

PMI data paint broadly stagnant picture of overall Chinese business conditions at start of 2012

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Business activity across the combined Chinese manufacturing and service sector broadly stagnated at the start of 2012, with the HSBC Composite Output Index falling from 50.8 to 49.7. There were divergences by industry, however, with continued manufacturing weakness contrasting with steady growth of services output.

Eurozone economy stabilises in January, with growth seen in Germany and France and slower declines in Spain and Italy

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Business activity in the Eurozone private economy was broadly unchanged in January, though a marginal increase in activity represents an improvement on the contractions seen at the end of last year. The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index posted 50.4 in January, up from 48.3 in December and above the no-change mark of 50.0 for the first time in five months.

UK economy shows renewed vigour in January

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The pace of UK economic growth picked up momentum at the start of 2012, with businesses reporting the largest increase in activity for ten months. The data fuel hopes that the UK economy may avoid a slide back into recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of economic decline – following a 0.2% contraction of gross domestic product (GDP) in the final quarter of last year.

Week ahead economic calendar [06 – 10 Feb]: Central banks mull better than expected economic data

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

After a flurry of better than expected PMI data signalled a reduced risk of the UK and Eurozone sliding back into recession, attention shifts to how policymakers will respond. Monthly policy meetings at the Bank of England and ECB form the highlights of the week. The upturn in the UK PMIs has led some analysts to revise down their predictions of a further £75bn extension of the Bank’s asset purchase programme, though the consensus is for a £50bn increase.

Global economic growth accelerates at start of 2012

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Global economic growth hit an 11-month high in January, as inflows of new business trengthened. Job creation also posted a modest bounce, with the rate of increase in payroll numbers the quickest since March last year. The JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index rose for the third month running to reach 54.6.

UK manufacturing springs into life in January

Wed, 01 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Manufacturing production grew at the fastest rate for ten months in January, rising for the second month in a row on the back of a return to growth of new orders. The improvements to output and new orders pushed the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI up from 49.7 in December to 52.1 in January, its highest reading since last May.

Eurozone manufacturing downturn eases as Germany returns to growth

Wed, 01 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The downturn in the Eurozone manufacturing sector eased further at the start of 2012. The seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose for the second month running in January. Although below 50.0 and therefore still signalling a worsening of business conditions, the index hit a five-month high of 48.8, up from 46.9 in December.

Survey-record fall in Greek manufacturing output signalled in January

Wed, 01 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Greece’s manufacturing sector remained deep in recession during January, with output, new orders and employment all declining at severe rates. Issues associated with poor cash flow and liquidity were reported by panellists as key factors impacting negatively on their own business performance and client demand at the start of 2012.

Asian manufacturing stabilises at start of 2012

Wed, 01 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Asian manufacturers saw a stabilisation of business conditions in January. The PMI for the region rose from 49.4 in December to 50.1, breaking above the 50 no-change level for the first time since October, though signalling only a marginal improvement in operating conditions during the month.

Eurozone: rising retail sales in Germany contrast with steepening downturns in France and Italy

Mon, 30 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Biting austerity measures and economic uncertainty appear to be driving wide differences in retail sales across the Eurozone. Retail PMI data showed large variations in sales between the three largest Eurozone countries in January. Rising sales in Germany contrasted with increased rates of decline in France and Italy, with the latter registering the steepest monthly fall since data were first collected in 2004.

Week ahead economic calendar [30 Jan – 03 Feb]: PMIs, payrolls and bank lending provide focal points to the week ahead

Fri, 27 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The weekend events at Davos and Monday’s EU summit will no doubt provide headlines for a week where minds will be focused on the Eurozone debt crisis. But the week also sees a flurry of major economic data releases that will help determine the health of the world’s major economies at the start of 2012. January global PMI data for manufacturing are released on Wednesday, followed by services (or non-manufacturing, in the case of the US) on Friday. The US labour report is also released on Friday, with the headline-grabbing US non-farm payrolls number the main highlight.

UK economy contracts 0.2% in final quarter of 2011

Wed, 25 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK economy contracted in the final quarter of last year, with gross domestic product (GDP) falling 0.2%. The decline was the first for a year and contrasted with a 0.6% expansion in the third quarter.

German IFO survey adds to signs that economic growth has rebounded in January

Wed, 25 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

An upturn in the IFO business survey adds to recent signs that Germany may avoid a double-dip recession. The IFO’s headline Business Climate index rose from 107.3 in December to 108.3 in January, hitting its highest level since August.

Eurozone: Stabilisation of output fails to prevent first fall in employment since spring 2010

Tue, 24 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index moved into positive territory for the first time in five months in January, according to the preliminary ‘flash’ reading which is based on around 85% of usual monthly replies. The index rose for the third month running, up from 48.3 in December to a five-month high of 50.4. That signalled a marginal increase in private sector economic activity.

UK public debt tops £1tn, but borrowing continues to fall on 2011

Tue, 24 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Public sector net debt, excluding financial interventions made during the financial crisis, edged above the £1 trillion mark for the first time ever in December. However, more importantly, borrowing continued to come down compared to the previous year, dropping £2.2bn in December.

Week ahead economic calendar [23 – 27 Jan]: Fourth quarter US and UK GDP news eagerly awaited

Fri, 20 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

A busy week features fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) reports for the US and UK, plus the Markit Eurozone PMI™ and IFO surveys as well as updates on policy from the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan.

UK unemployment at 17-year high as job market outlook remains subdued

Wed, 18 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

UK unemployment has risen further, increasing by 118,000 in the three months to November. At 2.685 million, the total is the highest for over 17 years. According to the internationally comparable (ILO) measure, the rate of unemployment edged higher, from 8.3% to 8.4%.

China to continue along path of gradual policy easing

Tue, 17 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

China’s economy grew at its weakest annual rate for two-and-a-half years in the final quarter of 2011. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed for the fourth successive quarter, dropping from 9.1% in the third quarter to 8.9%. The slowdown was less steep than many analysts had expected, however, and was accompanied by better-than-expected data on industrial production and retail sales for December. The current data flow therefore suggests that a “soft landing” scenario is on the cards, meaning the authorities are likely to persist with gradual policy easing at present rather than adopting a more aggressive stance as they did in response to the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Week ahead economic calendar [16 – 20 Jan]: China growth data to provide policy guidance

Fri, 13 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Attention shifts to China, where the first estimate of gross domestic product in the final quarter of last year will shed light on how the rate of growth in the world’s second-largest economy has been affected by the eurozone crisis. Markit’s flash HSBC Manufacturing PMI for China will likewise steer views on policy in China, providing a glimpse of activity in January. Over in Europe, the UK sees the publication of inflation, retail sales and labour market data for December. A short week in the US sees industrial production and inflation data for December as main highlights to the release diary.

UK manufacturing output trends down at steepest rate since September 2009

Thu, 12 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

More signs of the UK economy slipping closer to another recession appeared today with UK industrial production dropping 0.6% in November. Moreover, the 0.9% rate of decline in the three-month rate of manufacturing output is the steepest seen since September 2009.

Bank of England holds policy unchanged

Thu, 12 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

As expected, the Bank of England left policy unchanged at its January Monetary Policy Committee meeting, maintaining Bank Rate at 0.5% and its asset purchase programme at £275bn.

Eurozone manufacturing output falls at fastest trend rate in two-and-a-half years

Thu, 12 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Both industrial production and manufacturing output in the euro area fell 0.1% in November. The drop in manufacturing output was the third in succession, taking production 2.4% below the peak seen in August. In the three months to November, output was 1.2% below the prior three months, signalling the steepest downward trend rate since June 2009.

ECB holds rates steady amid improved news flow

Thu, 12 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The European Central Bank held its main policy rate unchanged at 1.0% in January, as widely expected. The euro rallied as ECB President Mario Draghi noted that the recent initiatives to boost liquidity in the banking system appear to have helped prevent a credit squeeze and that business surveys had shown signs of stabilising, albeit at a low level.

UK trade balance worsens but export trend shows signs of revival

Wed, 11 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

UK goods exports fell in November. However, exports nevertheless appear to have regained a modest upward trend in recent months, which is likely to have persisted into December. Trade is nevertheless unlikely to contribute strongly to UK economic growth in 2012, which looks set to be a challenging year.

Welcome signs of receding global inflationary pressures in Q4

Wed, 11 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The global economy saw a welcome easing in cost pressures at the end of 2011. Global input prices rose at the slowest pace in two years over Q4, according to PMI surveys, and at a much slower rate than the near record increases seen at the start of the year. Cost inflation may well creep up again, however. The recent easing has been largely led by manufacturing, with service sector cost increases remaining stubbornly high. However, recent oil price strength could potentially hurt manufacturers and service providers alike, causing input cost inflation to rise again. This may muddy the inflation waters for central bankers looking to maintain, or even increase, the flow of monetary support in 2012.

EU banking sector activity falls for seventh month running

Tue, 10 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

European Union PMI sector data signalled a contraction of the banking sector for the seventh month running in December. Moreover, the rate of contraction accelerated in December to the fastest since July 2009, and banks recorded a lower Business Activity Index than any other sector among 22 covered by PMI data.

Week ahead economic calendar [09-13 Jan]: All eyes on ECB for policy update as crisis rolls on

Fri, 06 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

With the Eurozone debt crisis driving market direction, and Italian and Spanish bond auctions scheduled for later in the week, all eyes will be on the European Central Bank’s policy decision on Thursday to see if the central bank is prepared to take further measures to support the region’s flagging economy, banking system and debt markets

UK PMI surveys signal December upturn, but economy likely stagnated in Q4

Thu, 05 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Faster growth of services and construction activity, alongside a stabilisation of manufacturing output, in December suggests the pace of economic growth accelerated slightly at the end of 2011. But growth over the fourth quarter as a whole looks likely to have been the weakest since the tail-end of the recession in the second quarter of 2009.

Chinese business activity returns to growth in December

Thu, 05 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Composite HSBC PMI data (covering manufacturing and services) signalled a renewed expansion of business activity during December. This was indicated by a rise in the seasonally adjusted Composite Output Index from 48.9 to 50.8.

Stabilisation of Japanese private sector activity

Thu, 05 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Business activity in the Japanese service sector returned to growth during December, although the rate of expansion was only slight. Looking ahead, companies expressed renewed optimism about the one-year business outlook.

Global economic growth revives to nine-month high in December

Thu, 05 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The global economy finished 2011 with an uplift in the rate of growth. December’s purchasing manager surveys from around the world signalled the strongest monthly expansion of private sector economic activity since March.

Eurozone downturn continues at end of 2011

Wed, 04 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Business activity in the Eurozone private economy contracted for the fourth straight month in December. At 48.3, up from 47.0 in the previous month, the final Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index came in above the flash estimate of 47.9 and signalled the weakest rate of decline for three months.

UK manufacturing production stagnates in December

Tue, 03 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilisation at the end of 2011. Production was broadly unchanged in December, following back-to-back contractions, and the rate of decline in new orders slowed as the trend in new exports strengthened.

Global PMI climbs to six-month high, led by US upturn

Tue, 03 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Purchasing surveys signalled the first improvement in worldwide manufacturing conditions for four months in December. However, trends varied markedly around the globe, with US producers providing one of the few encouraging bright spots in an otherwise downbeat series of national reports.

Eurozone manufacturing growth in Q4 weakest since mid-2009

Mon, 02 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The downturn in the Eurozone manufacturing sector extended into a fifth successive month in December, as companies faced declining order inflows, a slowing global economy and ongoing financial market turbulence.

Week ahead economic calendar [02-06 Jan]: PMIs provide kick-start to 2012 economic calendar

Fri, 30 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The New Year starts with a week crammed full of economic data releases, including manufacturing and service sector PMIs from around the world and US non-farm payrolls.

Week ahead economic calendar [26 – 30 Dec]: A quiet closing week to 2011 rounds off with manufacturing PMIs

Fri, 23 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

An otherwise quiet week for economic data ends with a small flurry of manufacturing PMI releases. Following the earlier flash PMI releases for the Eurozone and China, which picked up in both cases but nevertheless signalled ongoing weakness, manufacturing PMIs are published for Japan, China (final) and Russia, with the Chicago PMI also adding some insight into US business conditions.

UK grows more than expected in Q3, but outlook remains one of stagnation

Thu, 22 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The latest government data showed the UK grew by 0.6% in the three months to September, up from the Office for National Statistics' previous estimate of 0.5%. However, the expansion largely reflected a bounce-back from temporary weakness in the second quarter, which had been caused by the extra bank holiday and disruptions to business globally due to the Japanese earthquake. In fact, the second quarter was even worse than previously thought, with meagre growth of 0.1% revised down to zero.

US growth revised down for third quarter, but uplift expected for year-end

Thu, 22 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

US economic growth for the third quarter has been revised down from an annualised rate of 2.0% to 1.8% (or 0.45% on a quarterly basis). The rate still picked up from 1.3% in the second quarter, but growth in the three months to June had been temporarily hit by the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, which disrupted global supply chains. The lack of a significant bounce-back from that weakness is disappointing. However, there are growing signs of the US economy showing some resilience in the face of the Eurozone’s financial crisis and evidence of weakness in many other developed and emerging countries.

Italian recession looms as economy contracts in third quarter

Wed, 21 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Long-awaited third quarter Italian national accounts data showed a 0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction in gross domestic product (GDP). This was the first decline since the final three months of 2010 and stronger than the consensus expectation of a 0.1% fall. These official figures tally with earlier released PMI data – based on a weighted summation of the manufacturing output and services activity indices – from Markit, which showed output contracting throughout the third quarter of 2011. Composite PMI data for October and November suggest that Italian GDP will have contracted for a second successive quarter in Q4, and therefore entered Italy into technical recession for the second time in just over three years.

Germany: IFO survey confirms upturn in PMI™, but weakness prevails

Tue, 20 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The December IFO survey confirmed the surprise upturn that we saw in our flash German PMI, suggesting that the Eurozone’s largest member state is showing some resilience in the face of the region’s sovereign debt crisis.

UK household finances deteriorate at sharper pace amid survey-record rise in debt and fastest fall in income since March 2009

Mon, 19 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

December data pointed to a sharp and accelerated squeeze on household finances. The headline Markit Household Finance Index (HFI) dropped from 34.6 in November to 34.3, its lowest level for four months. This was also the second-weakest reading since the survey began in February 2009.

Week ahead economic calendar [19 – 23 Dec]: European data to highlight growing recession risk

Fri, 16 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The coming week sees the publication of the Bank of England monetary policy meeting minutes, business and consumer sentiment surveys, US housing market data plus a raft of third quarter GDP estimates.

Eurozone sees worst quarter for 2½ years despite rate of decline easing in December

Thu, 15 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index signalled contraction for the fourth successive month in December, according to the preliminary ‘flash’ reading which is based on around 85% of usual monthly replies. However, the index rose from 47.0 in November to 47.9, indicating an easing in the rate of decline for the second month in a row and the smallest fall in output for three months.

China: Price pressures fade as downturn continues in December

Thu, 15 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The HSBC Manufacturing PMI for China, compiled by Markit, rose from 47.7 in November to 49.0 in December, according to preliminary ‘flash’ data based on 85% of normal monthly replies. The sub-50 reading signalled a deterioration of manufacturing business conditions for the second month running and for the fifth time in the past six months, although the upturn in the index signalled that the rate of deterioration moderated compared to November.

UK inflation easing gains traction with steep falls likely in early 2012

Tue, 13 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The much anticipated easing in UK inflation appears to be gaining traction. Inflation fell for the second month running in November, dropping from 5.0% in October to a three-month low of 4.8%. Supermarket prices wars, lower petrol costs, falling food prices and retailer discounts for winter clothing lines that struggled to sell in November's warm weather all contributed to the easing.

Global economy limps along in November

Fri, 9 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

November’s PMI surveys signalled a slight upturn in the pace of global economic growth. However, the data still indicate that the annual rate of increase remained lacklustre as the Eurozone continued to contract and many other developed and emerging countries saw only weak growth. The JPMorgan Global PMI rose to 52.0 from the post-recession low of 51.3 seen in October. The survey-based indicator is roughly consistent with worldwide gross domestic product expanding at an annual rate of 1.5%, down from 2.0% in the second and third quarters and well below the peak of 4.1% seen in the third quarter of last year (according to official GDP data).

Week ahead economic calendar [12 – 16 Dec]: PMI surveys to provide first insight into December business conditions

Fri, 9 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Highlights of the week include flash PMI surveys for the Eurozone and China, inflation data for the US, UK and Eurozone, plus the US Federal Reserve’s policy-setters’ monthly meeting. Early ‘flash’ PMI survey data for Eurozone manufacturing and services, including a breakdown for core countries Germany and France are released on Thursday soon after Markit publishes the Flash HSBC Manufacturing PMI for China. The data will provide the first glimpse of business conditions in December, and how the euro area’s financial crisis is affecting the real economy at home and further abroad.

Contrasting export trends as sales surge in UK but slump in Germany

Fri, 9 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The UK trade deficit fell from a record £10.2bn in September to £7.6bn in October as the value of exports hit a record high. Goods exports were 14.7% up on a year ago, jumping 8.7% in October alone. It is unwise to get too excited about volatile monthly data, however, and looking at the trend over the latest three months suggests that the underlying rate of growth of exports has slowed markedly compared to earlier in the year. At the start of the year, exports were growing at a rate of roughly 6% every three months, but now we are only seeing a quarterly rate of increase of 0.6%.

Bank of England holds fire on extra stimulus despite bleak outlook

Thu, 8 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Bank of England left policy unchanged at its December meeting. The lack of action was in line with expectations. The data flow has changed little over the last month. Although manufacturing is contracting at a steep pace, services continue to expand at a modest rate, leaving a picture of overall economic stagnation, which is in line with the Bank's forecasts. Inflationary pressures are meanwhile showing signs of cooling, with a strong reduction in the inflation rate next year growing increasingly likely.

European Central Bank acts as recession risk intensifies

Thu, 8 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The European Central Bank gave but also took away at its December press conference. The central bank cut rates and boosted credit availability to the banking system, but dented hopes of the ECB providing financial support to beleaguered governments. The ECB cut its main policy rate for the second month running in December, reversing what now appear to be two ill-timed rate hikes earlier in the year. The policy rate is now down to 1.00%. The move was widely expected. Despite inflation running stubbornly higher than the 2% target, holding at 3% in October, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the region is sliding back into recession.

UK industrial production down at steepest rate in six months

Wed, 7 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Industrial production fell at the fastest rate for six months in October according to official data. Warm weather distorted the picture due to lower than usual energy consumption, so it is perhaps better to look just at manufacturing to see how industry is really faring. Unfortunately, looking at the latest three months, the trend is even more worrying. Manufacturing output fell 0.7% on the previous three months, which was the first such decline for two years. The official data are therefore now following the increasingly downbeat picture painted by the PMI survey in recent months, which suggests that a further deterioration in industry is to be expected in November.

EU banking sector activity continues to slide

Wed, 7 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

European Union PMI sector data signalled a contraction of the banking sector for the sixth month running in November. Elsewhere across the EU’s manufacturing and services economy, activity declined in all sectors except food and drink manufacturing, real estate and support services.

Brazilian economic recovery grinds to halt in the third quarter

Wed, 7 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Growth in the Brazilian economy ground to a halt during the third quarter, with gross domestic product (GDP) unchanged from the three months to June. The stagnation contrasted with 0.7% growth in the second quarter (revised down from 0.8%) and represents a marked contrast to the 0.8% pace seen at the start of the year. In year on year terms, the rate of economic growth slowed from 3.3% to 2.1% between the second and third quarters.

German industrial orders rebound in November

Tue, 6 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

A sigh of relief as demand for German manufactured goods bounced back in October following a steep fall in September. A 5.2% increase in industrial orders in October more than offset a 4.6% decline the previous month. However, the monthly data are clearly very volatile, and it's therefore better to look at how orders have fared over the last three months as a whole. Here the news is more disappointing, with orders falling 4.0% compared to the previous three months, which is the steepest rate of decline since April 2009 (see chart). Orders are also still some 9.2% below the pre-recession peak four years ago, highlighting the struggle that manufacturers are facing to regain their pre-crisis sales levels.

UK PMI surveys signal stagnation with risk of further weakening to come

Mon, 5 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Modest expansions in the UK service and construction sectors offset a steep contraction of manufacturing output in November, but the end result was only very modest growth of overall economic activity during the month. The weakness signalled by the PMI surveys suggests that the economy is likely to stagnate in the final quarter of 2011.

China PMI data signal contraction of combined manufacturing and services output in November

Mon, 5 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Composite Chinese PMI™ data showed output falling for the first time in 32 months during November, with the seasonally adjusted HSBC Composite Output Index (covering manufacturing and services) posting 48.9, from 52.6 in October. Manufacturers recorded a first monthly reduction in output since July, while service providers saw activity growth ease to a three-month low. At 52.5 in November, down from 54.1 in October, the seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index signalled only a modest rise in Chinese service sector activity in the context of historic data. The latest index reading was the lowest in three months, and well below the long-run series average (56.9).

November data show renewed reduction in Japanese private sector activity

Mon, 5 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Japanese service providers reported a renewed reduction in output during November. Looking ahead, firms were pessimistic about the one-year business outlook for the first time in seven months. Marginal reductions in new and outstanding business were recorded, while companies continued to reduce their staff numbers on average. Meanwhile, output charges fell again during November, in spite of a further increase in average input costs.

UK service sector registers further month of modest growth in November

Mon, 5 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

UK service sector activity rose for an eleventh successive month in November, but at a modest pace as incoming new business increased at the slowest rate of the year so far. Evidence of spare capacity was provided by accelerated falls in backlogs and employment. Higher utility costs continued to underpin a strong rate of overall input price inflation, while competitive pressures dampened pricing power, with output charges little changed since September.

Global growth improves despite ongoing manufacturing downturn

Mon, 5 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The rate of global economic expansion picked up slightly in November, regaining the growth momentum lost in the previous month. At 52.0, up from October's recovery-low of 51.3, the JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index signalled an increase in activity for the twenty-eighth consecutive month.

Output contracts in all four largest euro nations in November

Mon, 5 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone private sector economy contracted for the third month running in November. At 47.0, up from 46.5 in October, the final Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index signalled a slight easing in the rate of decline, but was weaker than the earlier flash estimate of 47.2. Output of the combined manufacturing and service sectors declined across all of the big-four nations for the first time since July 2009.

Global PMI hits 29-month low in November

Fri, 2 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Purchasing surveys signalled a marginal deterioration of worldwide manufacturing conditions for the third month running in November, providing further evidence that the recovery which began in July 2009 has stalled. The overall rate of decline is far weaker that seen in 2008-09, although the overall picture concealed marked variations in business trends around the world.

Week ahead economic calendar [05 – 09 Dec]: Services PMIs and China inflation data to steer monetary policy decisions

Fri, 2 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Important monetary policy meetings take place in a busy week. A slew of economic data releases will add to tension as euro zone political leaders seek to restore confidence in the lead up to Friday’s EU summit. Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) are due to make announcements on monetary policy on Thursday. Meanwhile, Markit’s service sector PMIs are published on Monday. Official German, French, Italian and UK industrial production numbers will also be updated, and are likely to confirm the message of European economic weakness.

UK manufacturing woes intensify in November

Thu, 1 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI registered 47.6 in November, down from a revised figure of 47.8 in October, to signal a faster rate of deterioration of business conditions. The latest reading was the lowest since June 2009. Manufacturers cut output, employment and inventories as inflows of new orders fell for the fifth successive month.

Asian manufacturing contracts at steepest rate since early-2009

Thu, 1 Dec 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Asian manufacturing sector business conditions worsened at the fastest rate since April 2009. November PMI surveys showed the sector contracting for the second time in the past three months as PMIs came in below 50.0 no change levels in China, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. Only India’s PMI held above 50, but even there the expansion was only marginal.

Japanese manufacturers report renewed decline in output

Wed, 30 Nov 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Japan’s manufacturing sector slid back into contraction in November, with operating conditions deteriorating at the sharpest rate since the earthquake-related fall in April. This was signalled by a drop in the seasonally adjusted Markit/JMMA Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) from 50.6 to 49.1 in November. However, the drop in the PMI – a composite index based on five survey sub-indices, including lagging indicators relating to employment, inventories and delivery times – masked more worrying, steeper declines in manufacturing output and new orders. New business fell for the third month running, with the rate of decline gathering pace and encouraging manufacturers to cut production at the fastest rate since April.

Firms around the world report marked fall in confidence

Wed, 30 Nov 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Worldwide business confidence has fallen between June and October to its lowest since the 2008/9 financial crisis. Weaker expectations regarding business activity over the next 12 months are recorded in both the service and manufacturing sectors, according to the latest KPMG Global Business Outlook survey compiled by Markit.

Eurozone confidence hits two-year low in November

Tue, 29 Nov 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Business and consumer confidence fell in November, according to the European Commission's surveys, putting optimism at its lowest since November 2009. Confidence among both business and consumers has fallen substantially since the summer as the region's debt crisis has escalated.

Week ahead economic calendar [28 Nov – 02 Dec]: Worldwide purchasing manager surveys to guide economic growth projections

Fri, 25 Nov 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Flash PMIs for China and the Eurozone showed underlying manufacturing weakness in November. The global picture will become complete on Thursday, with particular focus on the US and UK. The surveys will provide an insight into worldwide economic growth in the final quarter and the extent to which the Eurozone debt crisis may have affected global trade flows. In the US, few analysts expect Friday’s non-farm payroll report to show much of an increase above 100,000, suggesting that the unemployment rate is likely to remain disappointingly high at 9%. US consumer confidence is also likely to have remained subdued.

Manufacturing weakness signalled as China PMI slumps to 32-month low

Wed, 23 Nov 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Flash PMI™ survey data released today showed operating conditions deteriorating in November at the steepest rate since March 2009. This was signalled by a drop in the headline PMI from 51.0 in October to 48.0, which was the largest fall in the index since November 2008. The slump in the headline PMI marks a reversal of the promising, albeit modest, rebound in manufacturing sector growth registered last month. The survey suggests that economic growth will have slowed in the fourth quarter, and raises the likelihood of more robust policy easing by the Chinese authorities in the months ahead.

Eurozone contracts for third month running in November

Wed, 23 Nov 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index, based on around 85% of usual monthly replies, rose from 46.5 in October to 47.2 in November. Although signalling a slight weakening in the rate of contraction, the latest reading signalled a downturn in private sector business activity for the third successive month.

Week ahead economic calendar [21 - 25 Nov]: Eurozone business surveys to shed light on impact of debt crisis

Thu, 17 Nov 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Minutes from the Bank of England’s November Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting will be scoured for signs that policymakers have merely been waiting for the bank’s updated forecasts before deciding whether to crank up the printing presses again. Meanwhile, flash PMIs for Eurozone and China will provide an update on the impact of debt crisis on the real economy. The second estimate of economic growth for the third quarter and the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting are the main highlights in the US.

UK jobless rate climbs to 8.3% as youth unemployment breaks 1m

Wed, 16 Nov 2011 12:00:00 GMT

This morning’s official data showed a further deterioration in labour market conditions. The rate of unemployment hit 8.3% in the three months to September, up from 8.1% in the three months to August and the highest since the spring of 1996. However, the actual number out of work reached 2.622 million, the highest since 1994.

Canadian manufacturing sales up, but businesses say growth may slow in Q4

Wed, 16 Nov 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Canadian manufacturing sales increased further in September, according to the official statistics agency. At $49.2bn, the monthly rise was 2.6% higher than in August and 10.8% greater than a year earlier. An upturn in sales growth was identified by the RBC PMI™ but, with the headline index down in October, the rate of manufacturing sales growth is likely to ease over the coming months.

Economy expands 0.2% in third quarter, contraction likely in Q4

Tue, 15 Nov 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The euro area expanded by 0.2% in the third quarter, identical to the 0.2% expansion seen in the second quarter and in line with expectations. The meagre growth compares with 0.5% in the UK and 1.5% in Japan, although in both of these cases the rates of expansion were flattered by rebounds from disruptions to business in the second quarter. However, growth of 0.5% and 0.4% in Germany and France respectively may also have represented recoveries from temporary weakness in the second quarter, suggesting that the growth trend has weakened throughout 2011 so far.

Week ahead economic calendar [14 - 18 Nov]: Indicators to provide updates on developed world economic health

Fri, 11 Nov 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Economic data releases look set to merely provide side shows in a week likely to be dominated by the euro area financial crisis. However, the Bank of England’s Inflation Report will give important insight into how the crisis has affected the growth and inflation outlook. The report will no doubt show a more pessimistic growth outlook, and will be scrutinised for clues as to whether more QE will be announced in December.

Global PMI™ hits post-crisis low in October

Tue, 8 Nov 2011 12:00:00 GMT

October’s PMI surveys signalled the weakest month of global economic growth seen over the past two years of recovery. The JPMorgan Global PMI fell from 52.0 in September to 51.4 in October, the lowest reading by a small margin since the recovery began in August 2009. The data are consistent with global GDP rising at an annual rate of c.1.5%, down sharply from c.4% a year ago. By comparison, the average rate of global economic growth seen in the six years prior to the recession was 3.3%.

Asian growth stymied by falling exports

Tue, 8 Nov 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Growth rates in the emerging markets continued to be stymied by weak demand for goods from the developed world, as austerity measures continued to bite in many western countries and the ongoing crisis in the Eurozone dented business and consumer confidence. This weak demand resulted in a further decrease in new export orders at Asian manufacturing firms, down for the fifth month running.

Weaker global growth brings welcome easing of price pressures

Tue, 8 Nov 2011 12:00:00 GMT

October’s PMI™ surveys indicated a welcome easing of manufacturing price pressures, which should feed through to lower consumer prices in coming months and help boost growth by alleviating pressure on consumers’ squeezed incomes. However, the easing in the rate of inflation reflects slower economic growth, with supply exceeding demand for many commodities, highlighting the fragility of the economic recovery, especially in manufacturing.

EU banking sector activity falls at fastest rate since mid-2009

Mon, 7 Nov 2011 12:00:00 GMT

European Union PMI sector data signalled a contraction of the EU banking sector for the fifth month running in October. The rate of decline accelerated to the fastest since July 2009, driven by a fall in inflows of new business for the fifth successive month. The Business Expectations indicator improved for the second successive survey from August’s collapse, but remains far below its historic trend level.

Week ahead economic calendar [07 - 11 Nov]: China data and UK monetary policy noteworthy distractions in a week likely to be dominated by EZ debt drama

Fri, 4 Nov 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The week will no doubt be dominated by the ongoing sovereign debt crisis in Europe, but markets will also be watching the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee decision on Thursday and a raft of data out of China. Having surprised with an additional £75 billion of quantitative easing at the October meeting, it would be a surprise to see further stimulus implemented so soon. Meanwhile, inflation and industrial production data for China will provide major clues as to the health of the World’s second largest economy and the likely course of policy for the next few months.

UK PMI™ surveys signal stalled recovery

Thu, 3 Nov 2011 12:00:00 GMT

A downturn in the UK all-sector PMI signals a stagnation of GDP in October, and a worsening trend in new orders suggests that the survey data may worsen in coming months, adding to the risk of the economy sliding back into contraction in Q4. The weighted average of the Output Indices from the three Markit/CIPS PMI™ surveys fell from 52.7 in September to 51.0 in October.

Eurozone manufacturing downturn accelerates in October

Wed, 2 Nov 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Conditions in the Eurozone manufacturing sector continued to weaken in October. At 47.1, down from 48.5 in September, the Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest level since July 2009. The PMI has remained below the neutral mark of 50.0 for three months. Signs of weakness are becoming increasingly apparent in the core nations, while the periphery remains mired in recession.

UK manufacturing new orders show largest decline since March 2009

Tue, 1 Nov 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI registered 47.4 in October, down from 50.8 in September. The survey has signalled contraction in three of the last four months, with the latest decline the largest since June 2009. All five components of the PMI deteriorated compared with September, as manufacturers cut output, employment and inventories in the face of a marked downturn in demand for manufactured goods.

Week ahead economic calendar [31 Oct – 04 Nov]: PMIs, central bank policy and US employment to dictate market sentiment

Fri, 28 Oct 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Manufacturing and Services PMIs, published around the world, will provide a comprehensive snapshot of global growth trends in October. Meanwhile, central banks in Australia, the US and Eurozone are set to announce policy decisions. The preliminary estimate of Q3 economic growth, alongside manufacturing, construction and services PMI™ numbers are the main highlights for the UK. Next week is also peppered with some key economic data releases for the Untied States. Factory orders, construction spending and ISM non-manufacturing PMI data are all published, while the Chicago PMI will be used to gauge the ISM manufacturing release on Tuesday. The all-important non-farm payrolls number draws the week to a close.

PMI™ signals renewed growth of China’s manufacturing sector

Mon, 24 Oct 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Flash HSBC PMI™ data, compiled by Markit, showed Chinese manufacturing output increasing at the fastest rate in six months amid signs of improved demand for Chinese manufactured goods. Growth of new export orders was the strongest for almost a year, while overall new orders rose for the first time since July. In fact, all five of the indexes used to compile the PMI index reading contributed to the rise in the headline number, which climbed from 49.9 to a five-month high of 51.1 after adjusting for seasonal factors.

UK HFI: Majority of households expecting income to stagnate

Mon, 24 Oct 2011 12:00:00 GMT

UK households report a subdued outlook for their income over the coming year. Around 55% of participants in the Markit Household Finance Index (HFI) during October anticipate no change in income, against 31% that expect an improvement and 15% that predict a decline.

Eurozone downturn gathers momentum in October

Mon, 24 Oct 2011 12:00:00 GMT

At 47.2, down from 49.1 in September, the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index, based on around 85% of usual monthly replies, fell further below the 50.0 no change level in October. The deterioration signalled a second successive monthly contraction of the private sector economy and the fastest rate of decline since July 2009.

Week ahead economic calendar [24 - 28 Oct]: Flash PMIs and US GDP numbers to provide insight into global growth trends

Fri, 21 Oct 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The weekend’s summit of European leaders will no doubt dominate the markets on Monday, but the week also starts with some key economic releases. The HSBC flash Manufacturing PMI™ for China will provide important insights into fourth quarter economic growth, while the flash Eurozone PMI will indicate how businesses in the single-currency – the epicentre of the global economic slowdown – are faring in the face of the uncertainty caused by the escalating sovereign debt crisis. The week also sees the first estimate of US GDP for the third quarter. Meanwhile, a number of European consumer confidence indicators are published, which will be eagerly awaited to see if sentiment has been knocked in October by the region’s financial troubles.

Latest worldwide PMI release dates

Thu, 20 Oct 2011 12:00:00 GMT

PMI release dates for 2011.

China’s economic growth dips in Q3

Tue, 18 Oct 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed China’s economy expanding at the slowest pace for nine quarters in Q3, with growth of gross domestic product (GDP) easing from an annual rate of 9.5% to 9.1% (the consensus had been for a 9.2% expansion). The HSBC Composite PMI™ (covering manufacturing and services) had been consistent with the economy growing at an annual rate of around 9.0%, having averaged its lowest quarterly reading for two-and-a-half years in Q3.

Week ahead economic calendar [17 - 21 Oct]: Policymaker statements to provide insight into need for further stimulus

Fri, 14 Oct 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The week will see three important communications from central banks which will be watched to see what options policymakers are considering to help prevent double-dip recessions. In terms of data, the US sees releases of industrial production, inflation and housing starts numbers for September. Meanwhile, Eurozone consumer confidence is likely to provide downbeat news. The UK sees publication of inflation, retail sales and public sector borrowing statistics for September, and China releases third quarter GDP as well as industrial production, retail sales and investment data.

UK unemployment rises to highest level for almost 17 years

Wed, 12 Oct 2011 12:00:00 GMT

UK unemployment reached 2.57 million in the three months to August, its highest level since October 1994, pushing the unemployment rate up to 8.1%. The downbeat labour market data add to the flow of worrying economic news and highlight the growing risk of the UK sliding back into recession before the end of the year.

Global economy sees weakest quarter for two years in Q3

Tue, 11 Oct 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Purchasing surveys signalled a slight uptick in the rate of global economic growth in September, but the rise was insufficient to prevent the average growth rate for the third quarter slipping to the lowest for two years. The surveys therefore point to a second successive quarter of sub-2% worldwide GDP growth.

Week ahead economic calendar [10 - 14 Oct]: Policy pointers to come from inflation and production numbers

Fri, 7 Oct 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Central banks have become increasingly rattled by the risks facing the world’s major economies. The week’s data will be watched to see if further policy stimulus will be warranted by a further downturn in production and easing price pressures, or whether rising inflation might tie policymakers’ hands, especially in the euro area.

Sustained contraction of EU banking sector in September

Fri, 7 Oct 2011 12:00:00 GMT

European Union PMI sector data signalled a contraction of the EU banking sector for the fourth month running in September. The pace of contraction eased slightly, but confidence in the sector has failed to show any significant recovery from the near-record plunge seen in August, suggesting an ongoing contraction is likely in the coming months.

Japanese private sector activity falls at solid pace in September

Wed, 5 Oct 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Services Business Activity Index posted 46.4 in September, signalling a continued decline in activity. Earlier PMI data had signalled a fall in manufacturing production for the first time in five months and, as a result, the Composite Output Index remained below 50.0 for the seventh month running, signalling a solid reduction in Japanese private sector activity.

Broad-based weakening causes Eurozone to contract for first time in over two years

Wed, 5 Oct 2011 12:00:00 GMT

At 49.1, down from 50.7 in August, the final Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index for September signalled the first drop in private sector activity since July 2009. The final reading was broadly unchanged on the earlier flash estimate of 49.2. The average reading for the third quarter as a whole was just 50.3 – signalling a stagnation of activity – down from 55.6 in Q2 and 57.6 in Q1.

UK PMI rebound lifts prospects for GDP upturn in Q3

Wed, 5 Oct 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The PMI surveys indicate that private sector economic growth picked up in September, with upturns in services and manufacturing offsetting stagnation in construction. The weighted average of the Output Indices from the three Markit/CIPS PMI surveys rose to 52.7 from a 26-month low of 50.9 in August. The improvement lifts the prospects for GDP growth in the third quarter.

Medium sized companies driving UK jobs growth

Wed, 5 Oct 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The UK PMI surveys show strong variations in output and employment growth according to company size. In line with the historic trend across the surveys, output growth during the recovery has been led by large- and medium-sized firms. Also, output growth generally exceeds employment growth across companies of all sizes. But the gap for medium and small firms is less than that seen for large firms.

September data signal continued stagnation of China’s manufacturing sector

Mon, 3 Oct 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The stagnation of China’s manufacturing sector continued in September, with output growth constrained by lacklustre demand from both domestic and external clients. Growth of purchasing and outstanding business softened as a result, while stocks of finished goods fell for the fourteenth month in succession. On the price front, average input costs rose at the fastest rate in four months.

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI hits 25-month low in September

Mon, 3 Oct 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone manufacturing sector contracted for the second successive month in September. At 48.5, down from 49.0 in August, the final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in slightly above the flash estimate of 48.4, but nonetheless hit its lowest level since August 2009.

Return to growth of UK manufacturing production in September

Mon, 3 Oct 2011 12:00:00 GMT

September saw a moderate expansion of the UK manufacturing sector, an improvement on the contraction signalled in the previous month. However, the underlying rate of growth through the third quarter of the year is well below the high reached in Q1, as the trend in new orders has become more subdued.

Combined growth of Chinese manufacturing and services output improves to three-month high in September

Mon, 3 Oct 2011 12:00:00 GMT

September data showed growth of China’s private sector strengthening from near-stagnation in August. This was signalled by a rise in the HSBC Composite Output Index (covering manufacturing and services) to a three-month high of 51.5. However, the index was well below the long-run series average (54.6). Moreover, for Q3 as a whole, the index averaged its lowest quarterly reading since Q1 2009.

Global Manufacturing PMI dips to 27-month low in September

Mon, 3 Oct 2011 12:00:00 GMT

At 49.9 in September, down from 50.2 in August, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI posted below the neutral 50.0 mark for the first time since June 2009. Over Q3 2011 as a whole, production growth was negligible, down sharply from Q1's recent peak. New orders, meanwhile, contracted for the first time since Q2 2009.

Week ahead economic calendar [03 - 07 Oct]: PMI™ surveys to provide backdrop to ECB and BoE monetary policy decisions

Fri, 30 Sep 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Manufacturing PMI™ surveys for September are published around the world on Monday, followed by service sector PMIs on Wednesday. The results will be particularly closely watched for guidance on whether the Bank of England and European Central Bank will loosen policy on Thursday. In the US, non-farm payrolls round off a busy week, which includes the ISM surveys and a speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke, all of which will be eyed for clues as to whether the Fed is considering more stimulus. Non-farm payrolls showed no growth in August and, while jobless claims have fallen more than expected, payroll growth in September is unlikely to have exceeded the 40,000 average seen over the previous four months.

Week ahead economic calendar [26 - 30 Sept]: Week set to highlight lacklustre US economy and falling European confidence

Fri, 23 Sep 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The US sees a slew of data releases, including the third revision of Q2 GDP, personal income and spending, durable goods orders and new home sales, plus S&P Case-Shiller house price data for July. An insight into business conditions in September will be provided by the Conference Board consumer confidence survey and the Chicago PMI. European confidence surveys are likely to show a further broad-based deterioration of sentiment in the euro area, while flash CPI and unemployment data for Euroland are also published. In Asia, Friday sees the publication of September manufacturing PMIs for Japan and China, as well industrial production for Japan.

Week ahead economic calendar [19 - 23 Sept]: Central bank policymaking under the spotlight

Fri, 16 Sep 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The highlights of the week are updates on US and UK central bank policymaking and flash PMI surveys for China and Eurozone. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on Wednesday will be watched for the possibility of additional stimulus. Meanwhile, the Bank of England elected to do nothing at its September Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, but the minutes from the meeting are likely to indicate that the MPC grew increasingly worried about the fragility of the economic recovery following a raft of weak data.

Latest worldwide PMI release dates

Fri, 16 Sep 2011 12:00:00 GMT

PMI release dates for 2011.

Week ahead economic calendar [12 - 16 Sept]: Inflation data take centre stage amid increased focus on central bank policy

Fri, 09 Sep 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Policymakers will be watching the inflation numbers next week, as US, UK and Eurozone consumer price indices are updated for August. Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic will also be watching retail sales data, with UK high street spending likely to have come under downward pressure from rioting in early August, as well as the ongoing squeeze on consumer incomes from rising prices. Other notable releases are industrial production numbers for the US and Eurozone, plus trade data for the UK.

EU banking sector confidence evaporates in August

Wed, 07 Sep 2011 12:00:00 GMT

European PMI sector data signalled a further decline in activity at EU banks in August. More worryingly, the forward-looking indicator – which tracks business expectations over the next 12 months – suffered its largest one-month drop since September 2001. The Business Expectations Index was its lowest since January 2009, approaching the territory last visited during the late-2008 global financial crisis.

Global economy making lacklustre progress in Q3

Tue, 06 Sep 2011 12:00:00 GMT

August PMI data signal that growth of the global economy has eased to its slowest since the recovery began two years ago. Manufacturers and service providers across the world – especially in developed markets – are facing a combination of weak domestic demand and declining international trade flows. Forward-looking indicators also suggest the near-term chances of a significant improvement in global economic growth look increasingly remote.

US Non-manufacturing PMI surprises to the upside, but growth still set to ease

Tue, 06 Sep 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The ISM non-manufacturing PMI survey came in far stronger than expected in August, helping to dispel some of the recent gloom. The headline index rose from 52.7 to 53.3, defying expectations of a fall to 51.0. Growth of business activity slowed only slightly from July's four-month high, while new orders rose at an increased rate.

UK PMI surveys point to economic stagnation in Q3

Mon, 05 Sep 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The PMI surveys pointed to a near-stagnation of economic growth in August, signalling an increased risk that GDP growth in Q3 could be even weaker than the 0.2% rise seen in Q2. Forward-looking indicators also suggest that the economy could weaken further at the end of the quarter, and will provide ammunition for those seeking a further injection of stimulus by the Bank of England. The all-sector PMI is at a level which has always triggered interest rate cuts in the past.

Week ahead economic calendar [05 – 09 Sept]: Services PMI data to provide further insight into business trends during August

Fri, 02 Sep 2011 12:00:00 GMT

After manufacturing PMI surveys that, on the whole, indicated a slowdown in August, the financial markets will be focused on the release of services and composite PMI data. Other important releases include Chinese inflation, and industrial production for Germany, France and the UK. The ECB and Bank of England will announce their latest interest rate decisions. In the US, Bernanke will give a speech on Thursday that may provide insight into future Fed policy.

UK manufacturing set for slide back into recession

Thu, 01 Sep 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The latest UK PMI survey showed business conditions deteriorating in August, with manufacturing set to slide back into recession and act as an increasing drag on the country’s economic recovery in the third quarter. A steep drop in export orders exacerbated austerity-hit domestic demand. Manufacturers also look set to cut staff levels at an increasing rate in coming months as weak demand leads to cost-cutting.

Eurozone PMI at two-year low as new orders fall in all countries

Thu, 01 Sep 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit: “Final PMI data for August were even worse than the disappointing earlier flash numbers, signalling an end to the manufacturing recovery which began in October 2009. PMIs either signalled stagnation or contraction in all countries surveyed, with output falling for the first time since July 2009 and job creation sliding to the lowest for nearly a year."

China Manufacturing PMI at 49.9 in August

Thu, 01 Sep 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Commenting on the China Manufacturing PMI, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC:“The August final manufacturing PMI reading edged up marginally from the flash reading, almost close to the break-even level. Both output and employment rebounded to above the 50 line for the first time in three months. These data confirm our view that China will only see growth moderation in the coming months, rather than a hard landing.”

US manufacturing PMI edges closer to stagnation

Thu, 01 Sep 2011 12:00:00 GMT

A drop in the ISM’s headline PMI to 50.6 from 50.9 in July was better than the 48.5 reading analysts had been expecting, but this survey is still signalling a worryingly slow rate of growth of the US manufacturing sector. The near-stagnation signalled by the ISM survey was the weakest performance since the US PMI rose above the neutral 50 level in August 2009.

Global manufacturing stagnates in broad-based slowdown

Thu, 01 Sep 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 in August. The near-stagnation signalled was the worst performance since the recovery began two years ago and represents a big turnaround in the growth profile of the manufacturing sector compared to the post-recession peak of 57.4 seen in February.

Output growth at Japanese manufacturers eases to three-month low, despite faster rise in new business

Wed, 31 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Alex Hamilton, economist at Markit: “PMI survey data suggest that domestic demand drove overall manufacturing expansion in August, as new export business continued to fall amid persistent yen strength and reports of sluggish demand from China. Reports from survey respondents suggested that overall new order growth was in part supported by recovery in the autos sector."

Week ahead economic calendar [29 Aug – 02 Sept]: Manufacturing PMIs to provide snapshot of global economic conditions in August

Fri, 26 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Big week for economic data starting Monday, with manufacturing PMIs released around the world. Meanwhile, the minutes from the US Fed’s August FOMC meeting will also be watched closely for clues as to whether the Fed has appetite (and scope) for more stimulus. Important updates on the resilience of the US recovery will be provided by two of the most market-moving economic indicators in the monthly calendar: the ISM manufacturing survey and non-farm payrolls. The current state of the UK economy will also be reflected in the publication of the Markit Construction PMI™ plus money supply and mortgage lending data from the Bank of England.

Almost 70% of British households are downbeat about the UK economic outlook

Thu, 25 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Households are more downbeat about the UK economic outlook in August than was reported last month. Exactly 69% of British households anticipate worse economic conditions in one year’s time, up from 61.6% in July. Just 15.2% of respondents expect conditions to improve, down from 19.3% in July. Scotland is the most pessimistic region, while the East of England is the least downbeat. London saw the sharpest deterioration in sentiment (net balance down from -33.4% to -60.0% in August).

German IFO survey confirms PMI™ weakness

Wed, 24 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

August’s IFO survey provided more disappointing news for Germany and the Eurozone as a whole. The IFO survey came in well below expectations, with the overall business climate index falling from 112.9 in July to 108.7 in August. Analysts were expecting a reading of 111.0 according to Reuters. Indices of both current and expected future conditions fell more than anticipated. The data also add to the prospect of the German economy stagnating in the third quarter, or even sliding back into contraction, having grown just 0.1% in the second quarter.

Eurozone growth stuck at two-year low as inflows of new work show renewed contraction

Tue, 23 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index, based on around 85% of usual monthly replies, was unchanged at 51.1 in August. The latest reading signalled a rate of increase identical to July’s twenty-two month low and a further near-stagnation of private sector output.

Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions deteriorate at fractional rate in August

Tue, 23 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China. The estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month.

China: Large manufacturers report steepest fall in production for 15 months

Tue, 23 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Flash PMI™ survey data released today showed Chinese manufacturing production falling for the second successive month during August. However, the rate of decline in factory output eased compared with July, with the PMI Output Index climbing from 48.0 to 49.4. The easing in growth was not broad-based, however, with differing performance by company size. The slower contraction of production reflected renewed growth at smaller manufacturers, where production rose for the first time in three months. In contrast, large firms recorded the sharpest decline in output for 15 months. This represents a turnaround compared to earlier in the year, when larger companies had generally outperformed smaller firms.

Week ahead economic calendar [22 – 26 August]: Flash PMIs to reveal insight into global growth soft-patch

Fri, 19 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

With economic data releases that are usually confined to the sidelines now having the potential to create havoc in financial markets, the news flow will be watched closely for any clues that the global economy's soft patch is coming to an end, or whether it is turning into something more worrying. The flash PMIs, published on Tuesday, will provide the first available indications of business conditions in China and the Eurozone during August. Meanwhile, second estimates of Q2 economic growth for the UK and US are released on Friday.

UK unemployment jumps amid weakening job market

Wed, 17 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Official data paint a very disappointing picture of the UK labour market. Claimant count unemployment showed the largest jump since May 2009, up 37,500 – almost twice the 20,000 rise that analysts had been expecting. The unemployment rate also jumped to 7.9% from 7.7%. Survey data indicate that unemployment is likely to continue to rise in coming months as private sector employers fail to make up for public sector job cuts. The Markit/CIPS PMI™ survey showed companies reducing their headcounts in July due to concerns over the economic outlook.

Latest worldwide PMI release dates

Wed, 17 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

PMI release dates for 2011.

Week Ahead Economic Calendar

Fri, 12 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Highlights of the week in terms of economic data releases are inflation data for the UK and US, plus the first estimate of second quarter GDP for Germany and the Eurozone.

French economy stagnates in second quarter

Fri, 12 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Official data showed that the French recovery stalled in the second quarter, with zero gross domestic product (GDP) growth the worst performance since the recovery started two years ago.

Global economy remains in the doldrums, but price pressures ease

Wed, 10 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The global economy remained stuck in the slow lane during July, although a modest improvement in the rate of growth was evident as a faster rate of expansion in the service sector offset a further slowdown in manufacturing. The JPMorgan Global PMI™, compiled by Markit, rose from 52.3 in June to 52.6 in July. However, in spite of the increase, the index was the third-lowest since the recovery began in August 2009 and remains consistent with worldwide gross domestic product (GDP) growth of just 2% per annum.

China PMI™ data signal steeper slowdown than official data

Wed, 10 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show industrial output growth easing from an annual rate of 15.1% to 14.0% in July. The slowdown in part reflects monetary tightening by the authorities in a bid to curb inflation. Although it is clear that the current cycle of interest rate and reserve ratio hikes is having the desired cooling effect on growth, the same cannot be said for inflation. Consumer price inflation hit 6.5% in July, the steepest pace for 37 months.

UK manufacturers’ renewed plight highlighted by falling exports and output

Tue, 09 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Latest data from the Office for National Statistics showed a further deterioration in the performance of the UK manufacturing sector, confirming the downbeat news from recent business surveys. Manufacturing output fell 0.4% in June, leaving production 2.1% down on a year ago, while the trade deficit for goods increased to nearly £8.9bn as exporters struggled in the face of weakened demand in key overseas markets.

EU banking activity declines further in July

Fri, 05 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

European Union PMI sector data, based on the FTSE/Dow Jones Industry Classification Benchmark (ICB), signalled a further decline in business activity at EU banks in July. Banks is a constituent sector of the broad financials industry, one of seven industry groups covered by ICB PMI data.

Week ahead economic calendar [08 – 12 August]: Case for quantitative easing gathers momentum as global growth falters

Fri, 05 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Economic data releases will be under the spotlight next week, as global growth hangs in balance. A swathe of market moving data for China are published, namely industrial production, consumer price inflation, trade and retail sales numbers. Meanwhile, the US monetary policy decision on Tuesday will be watched with great interest. The US also sees the publication of international trade, retail sales and University of Michigan consumer confidence figures. Other major releases include the Bank of Japan (BoJ) minutes from its July meeting midweek and Eurozone industrial production numbers published on Friday.

Eurozone drifts nearer to stagnation in July, as Germany and France slow further and Spain falls back into contraction

Wed, 03 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Having eased sharply in each of the previous three months, Eurozone private sector growth moved closer to stagnation at the start of Q3 2011. The Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell to 51.1 in July, down from 53.3 in June. Although above the earlier flash estimate of 50.8, the final reading was still the lowest since September 2009.

UK service sector activity increases at strongest pace in four months during July

Wed, 03 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The UK service sector expanded in July at a marked and accelerated rate. The Markit/CIPS Business Activity Index recorded 55.4, up from 53.9 in June, to indicate a rise in activity that was the strongest for four months. However, lingering uncertainty over the direction of the economy undermined expectations and hiring decisions.

Combined growth of Chinese manufacturing and services output eases to only marginal rate in July

Wed, 03 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Overall growth of China’s manufacturing and service sectors eased to near-stagnation in July, with the HSBC Composite Output Index posting 50.4. This was down from 51.6 in June, and below the long-run series average. The slowdown in overall growth reflected a faster decline in manufacturing output and a slower expansion of activity in the service sector.

Japanese private sector activity falls at solid pace in July

Wed, 03 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Japanese service providers reported lower business activity for the sixth consecutive month during July, as intakes of new work continued to fall amid weak domestic consumption. Meanwhile, PMI survey data released 29 July signalled that manufacturing production in Japan rose at the fastest rate since February. Consequently, the Composite Output Index, covering activity across both manufacturing and services, rose fractionally from 47.6 to 47.7 in July.

Global growth accelerated slightly in July, as faster expansion in services offset slowdown in manufacturing

Wed, 03 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The global economy expanded at a slightly quicker pace in July, as faster growth of services business activity offset a weaker increase in manufacturing production. At 52.6, up from 52.3 in June, the JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index remained above the 50.0 mark, signalling expansion, for the twenty-fourth consecutive month.

Japanese manufacturing production rises at sharpest rate in five months

Mon, 01 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Japan’s manufacturing recovery gathered momentum in July, with renewed new order growth and easing supply side pressures supporting a faster expansion of production. Consequently, manufacturers added to their employee numbers for the first time in four months. On the price front, input cost inflation eased, but remained strong nonetheless, while output charges rose at a modest pace.

Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions deteriorate for first time in a year

Mon, 01 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

PMI survey data signalled that Chinese manufacturing production continued to fall in July, as total new order growth eased to near-stagnation amid reports of lacklustre global demand. Purchasing activity fell for a second successive month as a result, which in turn contributed to a steeper decline in stocks of pre-production goods. Meanwhile, input cost inflation accelerated, but remained subdued in the context of historic data. Consequently, manufacturers raised their factory gate charges only marginally in the latest survey period.

UK Manufacturing PMI signals contraction for first time in two years in July

Mon, 01 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Operating conditions in the UK manufacturing sector deteriorated for the first time in two years during July. Output growth slowed closer to stagnation, as new orders declined at the fastest rate since May 2009. The weaker performance of the sector impacted on the labour market, as manufacturers lowered employment for the first time in 16 months.

Eurozone manufacturing moves closer to stagnation in July

Mon, 01 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone manufacturing recovery lost further momentum in July. The final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® fell to 50.4, below June’s 52.0 and the weakest reading since the recovery began in October 2009. The level of the headline PMI was in line with the earlier flash estimate.

Growth of global manufacturing sector moves closer to stagnation

Mon, 01 Aug 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The global manufacturing sector continued to cool at the start of H2 2011. Growth of production slowed to a near standstill, as levels of incoming new business declined slightly for the first time in over two years. At 50.6 in July, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ fell to its lowest level since July 2009, the first month of the ongoing recovery. The headline PMI has signalled a substantial easing in the overall rate of expansion since hitting a near-record high only five months ago.

Week ahead economic calendar [01 – 05 August]: Global economic growth hangs in the balance

Fri, 29 Jul 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Market attention will remain firmly on US debt wrangling over the weekend, as a Tuesday deadline looms large. In terms of economic data, the publication of PMI™ data for nearly all of the world’s major developed and emerging countries will dominate the first half of the week. Central bank policy announcements also feature heavily next week, with committees in Australia, the Eurozone, Japan, Russia and the UK all meeting to set interest rates. In the US, the release of ISM Manufacturing PMI data and Friday’s employment report are the highlights.

Two-thirds of British households downbeat about economic outlook

Tue, 26 Jul 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Markit’s survey of 1,500 UK households showed that almost two-thirds expect the state of the economy to deteriorate in the coming year, while just one-in-five expect an improvement. When analysed by region, income group, employment type and age, all categories saw pessimists exceed optimists. Young high-earners in the south east were the least pessimistic, while private sector employees were considerably less gloomy than those in the public sector.

Week ahead economic calendar [25 – 29 July]: Economic growth in the US and UK under spotlight

Fri, 22 Jul 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Key releases for the week will be the first estimates of second quarter GDP for the UK and US, published on Tuesday and Friday respectively. The US GDP numbers will be preceded by house price data from Case-Shiller on Tuesday and durable goods orders on Wednesday, while the first insight into whether the weakness of the UK household sector persisted into the second half of the year will be provided by the Markit Household Finance Index.

Eurozone growth slows to near-stagnation in July

Thu, 21 Jul 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index, based on around 85% of usual monthly replies, fell from 53.3 in June to 50.8 in July. The latest reading was the lowest since August 2009. Manufacturing output declined for the first time since July 2009, while activity growth slowed sharply in services.

Flash China Manufacturing PMI at 48.9, 28-month low

Thu, 21 Jul 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China.

Flash PMI™ signals manufacturing contraction in China

Thu, 21 Jul 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The HSBC Manufacturing PMI™ for China fell from 50.1 in June to 48.9 in July, according to the flash reading, dropping below the 50.0 no-change level for the first time in a year. The latest reading signalled the largest deterioration of manufacturing sector operating conditions since March 2009.

Latest worldwide PMI release dates

Wed, 20 Jul 2011 12:00:00 GMT

PMI release dates for 2011.

Week ahead economic calendar [18 – 22 July]: Eurozone business surveys take centre stage

Fri, 15 Jul 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The initial driver of the markets on Monday will likely be the results of the European bank stress tests and ongoing talks regarding sovereign debt, as well as US budget discussions. The Eurozone will remain in focus over the week with a slew of economic data published, including the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI™ surveys for July.

UK official labour market data mixed, but surveys point to weakness ahead

Wed, 13 Jul 2011 12:00:00 GMT

This morning saw another set of mixed UK labour market data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The number claiming jobseekers' allowance showed the largest monthly jump for two years in June, to 1.52m. The Labour Force Survey, on the other hand, suggested that unemployment fell by 26,000 in the three months to May to 2.45m.

Week ahead economic calendar [11 – 15 July]: Inflation numbers to shed light on global price pressures

Fri, 08 Jul 2011 12:00:00 GMT

A key focus of the week will be the publication of a swathe of data from China on Friday, including the first estimate of second quarter GDP plus industrial production, retail sales and inflation numbers. Meanwhile, some clues as to the direction of future policy in the US, Eurozone and UK may be provided by inflation and industrial production numbers, which are published for the US and Eurozone, plus labour market and trade data for the UK. The US data will be looked at in the context of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting, published on Tuesday.

Global economic growth weakest for almost two years in Q2

Thu, 07 Jul 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The JPMorgan Global PMI, compiled by Markit, fell from 52.7 in May to 52.2 in June. The latest PMI, which measures private sector output growth across manufacturing and services in all major world economies, rounded off the weakest quarter since 2009 Q3.

EU: Financial industry activity fell for the first time in two years in June. Banking sector outlook at two-year low

Thu, 07 Jul 2011 12:00:00 GMT

European Union PMI sector data, based on the FTSE/Dow Jones Industry Classification Benchmark (ICB) , signalled a fall in business activity in the financials industry in June. Of seven broad industry groups covered, financials was the worst-performing except for basic materials.

EU: Autos sector grows at weakest rate since August 2009

Thu, 07 Jul 2011 12:00:00 GMT

European Union PMI detailed sector data signalled a further slowdown in the European automobile industry in June. Output rose for the twenty-third successive month, but the increase was the smallest since August 2009. Having been the fastest growing sector among 22 areas covered in total in the first two months of the year, automobiles & parts producers were ranked ninth in June.

Chinese service sector activity rose solidly in June, but confidence in the one-year business outlook dipped to record low.

Tue, 05 Jul 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Chinese service providers signalled a further increase in business activity during June, as new order growth quickened to an eight-month high. Subsequently, the number of people employed within the service sector increased further during the latest survey period. This occurred despite a drop in business confidence to a series-record low.

Japanese private sector activity fell at slowest rate in four months

Tue, 05 Jul 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Japan Composite Output Index, covering activity across both manufacturing and services, rose from 46.2 in May to a four-month high of 47.6 in June. Looking ahead, service providers expressed the strongest degree of optimism in the one-year business outlook for two years.

Eurozone growth slides to 20-month low in June

Tue, 05 Jul 2011 12:00:00 GMT

At 53.3, down from 55.8 in May, the Markit Eurozone Composite Output Index fell to a 20-month low in June. The index was below the earlier flash estimate of 53.6, and the fall since May signalled the steepest monthly slowdown in the rate of expansion since November 2008.

UK: Uplift in PMI surveys for June fails to halt Q2 slowdown

Tue, 05 Jul 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The three Markit UK PMI surveys collectively signalled a faster rate of economic growth in June, but the improvement failed to lift the average pace for the second quarter close to that seen in the first three months of the year. The data suggest that the economy, as measured by gross domestic product, will have expanded by 0.3% at best in the second quarter as a whole, down from 0.5% in the first quarter.

UK manufacturing growth stalling as export surge fades

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 51.3 in June, down from 52.0 in May and the lowest reading since September 2009. The near-stagnation signalled by the index represents a steep deterioration in the performance of the sector since the surging growth seen at the start of the year.

Chinese manufacturing output fell for the first time since July 2010

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Manufacturing production in China fell during June, as total new order growth continued to moderate. On the inflation front, price pressures cooled noticeably, with both input and output prices rising at only modest rates. The seasonally adjusted HSBC PMI™ – a composite indicator designed to give a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – fell to an eleven-month low of 50.1 in June.

Broad-based slowdown in Eurozone manufacturing as growth hits 18-month low

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to a one-and-a-half year low of 52.0 in June, down from 54.6 in May and unchanged from the earlier flash estimate. At 54.9, the average PMI reading during Q2 2011 is the lowest since the opening quarter of 2010 and well below the average of 57.9 seen in Q1.

Week ahead economic calendar [04 – 08 July]: Economic data releases to provide insight into global slowdown

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 12:00:00 GMT

A week crammed with economic data and central bank policy announcements is also likely to see the ongoing Greek debt saga continue to grab the headlines. The highlights of the week are set to be policy meetings at the Bank of England and European Central Bank on Thursday. Before the announcements, policymakers will see the June PMI™ service sector data, published on Tuesday. The week also sees some all-important data releases for the US, with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI published on Wednesday, followed by non-farm payrolls on Friday.

Global PMI at 23-month low as manufacturing slowdown continues

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 52.3 in June, down from 53.0 in May and well below February's near series record high. The latest reading was the weakest since July 2009, the first month of the current two-year period of recovery.

ONS: UK service sector output fell in April

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Latest data from the Office for National Statistics showed that output of the UK service sector – which represents three-quarters of UK economic activity – fell 1.2% in April, more than reversing a 0.8% increase seen in March. The fall was the biggest since January 2010, when heavy snow disrupted the economy. Special factors appear to have been at play again in April, with services sector activity hit by the Royal Wedding, an additional bank holiday and the hottest weather for the month since records began.

Week ahead economic calendar [27 June – 1 July]: Surveys to provide policymakers with first insight into global growth and prices trends in June

Fri, 24 Jun 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The publication of manufacturing PMI™ data for nearly all of the world’s major developed and emerging countries will be the highlight of the week in terms of economic data. Before the PMIs are released, however, attention is likely to remain focused on Greece, with any worsening of the Eurozone’s financial crisis seen by central banks as a major threat to global economic growth in the coming year. The week also sees a raft of data on inflation, the US housing market and consumer trends, plus business conditions in Japan.

Germany: PMI points to Q2 GDP slowdown, while IFO survey gives mixed signals

Fri, 24 Jun 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The IFO and Markit PMI™ surveys of German business conditions diverged again in June. The former suggests current business conditions have reached a new peak, while the PMI signals that economic growth slowed in Q2. The IFO’s forward-looking expectations index also points to a slowdown, but it fails to match the PMI in terms of its accuracy in anticipating changes in gross domestic product.

Flash PMI: Eurozone growth weakest since October 2009, led by sharp manufacturing slowdown.

Thu, 23 Jun 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index, based on around 85% of usual monthly replies, fell from 55.8 in May to a 20-month low of 53.6 in June. The loss of momentum during Q2 has been marked, especially in manufacturing, where output growth slowed to the weakest since September 2009.

Flash PMI: Chinese manufacturing sector close to stagnation in June

Thu, 23 Jun 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Flash China PMI™ data show stagnation of manufacturing output in June

Thu, 23 Jun 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Flash PMI™ survey data released 23 June signalled a continued slowdown in the expansion of China’s manufacturing industry, as output growth eased to a standstill and inflows of new business increased only fractionally. On the inflation front, price pressures cooled noticeably as growth of demand for raw materials eased, with both input and output prices rising at the slowest rates in almost a year.

Latest worldwide PMI release dates

Tue, 21 Jun 2011 12:00:00 GMT

PMI release dates for 2011.

UK manufacturing: PMI and CBI surveys compared

Tue, 21 Jun 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The CBI survey of UK manufacturing showed that expectations about output in three months’ time weakened in June. Despite this, the survey has been consistently more upbeat than the Markit PMI™ since March, and the recent downturn in the latter suggests that the CBI data will deteriorate further. This is based on comparisons showing that the PMI tends to move in advance of the CBI survey.

Week ahead economic calendar [20 - 24 June]: Flash PMI™ reports and central bank activity to update growth and policy outlook

Fri, 17 Jun 2011 12:00:00 GMT

A week that is likely to be dominated by events in the Eurozone, with European finance ministers meeting over the weekend to discuss Greece, also contains some key economic data and central bank activity. The Bank of England publishes the minutes from its June Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Wednesday, at which policy was unchanged, before the US Fed announces its policy decision, accompanied by a speech by Chairman Ben Bernanke.

UK labour market shows signs of fragility after robust start to the year

Wed, 15 Jun 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Latest official data provided more mixed news on the labour market. On the one hand, the broader ILO measure of unemployment declined by 88,000 to 2.43 million in the three months to April, the largest drop for more than a decade, and employment rose by 80,000 over the same period. On the other hand, more up-to-date information on the number of people claiming jobless benefit showed an increase of 19,600 to 1.49 million in May, the biggest rise for almost two years.

Week ahead economic calendar [13 - 17 June]: Inflation numbers to add clues to central bank policy

Fri, 10 Jun 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The week provides central banks in the US, UK and China with a wealth of new data to chew on in policy ruminations. The UK sees the publication of inflation, retail sales and labour market data, while the US reports inflation and industrial production numbers. China also publishes its regular ‘data dump’, which will add clues to whether recent policy tightening has had the desired effect on domestic demand and prices, and whether further efforts will be required to cool the economy.

ECB flags-up rate hike in July while US and UK rates remain on hold

Thu, 09 Jun 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank all left policy unchanged at their May meetings, as anticipated. However, the ECB looks set to hike rates again in July. The future direction of rates in all three cases depends on whether the current soft patch in economic growth proves transitory

Global economic growth stays in low gear in May

Thu, 09 Jun 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The JPMorgan Global PMI, compiled by Markit, rose in May from the 21-month low seen in April. But the upturn was only very modest and signalled an historically weak rate of worldwide gross domestic product (GDP) growth of just over 2%.

EU sectors: Sharp slowdown in growth led by manufacturers

Tue, 07 Jun 2011 12:00:00 GMT

European Union PMI detailed sector data signalled a widespread slowdown in output growth in May. Out of 22 sectors covered, 14 registered weaker growth rates, while three posted outright declines in business activity compared with the previous month. Manufacturing sectors registered notably sharp deteriorations in output growth, including metals, chemicals, electronics and autos.

Two-speed Eurozone recovery downshifts to lower gear in May

Fri, 03 Jun 2011 12:00:00 GMT

At 55.8 in May, down from 57.8 in April, the Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell to a five-month low. Rates of growth eased in all of the nations where PMI data for both manufacturing and services are available. The expansion also remained two-speed, with France and Germany leading the recovery. In contrast, Italy, Spain and Ireland drifted closer to stagnation.

UK PMI™ surveys point to weaker growth and falling price pressures

Fri, 03 Jun 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The three Markit/CIPS UK PMI™ surveys collectively signalled a slowing in the rate of economic growth for the second month running in May, taking the rate of expansion down to the weakest since heavy snowfall caused a near-stagnation of growth in December. The data suggest the economy could struggle to expand by more than 0.3% in the second quarter.

Week ahead economic calendar [06 - 10 June]: European central bank meetings to provide monetary policy guidance

Fri, 03 Jun 2011 12:00:00 GMT

European monetary policy comes under the spotlight with announcements due by the Bank of England and European Central Bank on Thursday. Neither are expected to raise interest rates but both meetings will be watched closely for signs of whether recent weak economic data have led to more dovish stances.

Global economic growth improves in May, as faster expansion in services offsets slowdown in manufacturing

Fri, 03 Jun 2011 12:00:00 GMT

May PMI™ data signal a slight improvement in the rate of expansion of the global private sector economy. The JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index posted 52.6, up from April's 21-month low of 51.8.

Japanese private sector activity decreased at a much slower rate in May

Fri, 03 Jun 2011 12:00:00 GMT

May data pointed to a sharp easing in the rate of decline in Japanese service sector activity. Meanwhile, earlier survey data pointed to a welcome rebound in manufacturing, with the index tracking output rising strongly to signal growth for the first time in three months. Consequently, the overall rate of decline across both sectors slowed substantially.

Activity growth in China quickens to sharpest in four months

Fri, 03 Jun 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Growth of activity across Chinese manufacturing and services accelerated to a four-month high in May. This was signalled by the seasonally adjusted HSBC Composite Output Index posting 52.8, up from 51.7 in April. The improvement reflected a stronger rise in services activity, while manufacturing output growth eased for the second successive month to only a marginal rate.

New RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI™

Thu, 02 Jun 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Royal Bank of Canada, in association with Markit and the Purchasing Management Association of Canada, today launched the monthly RBC Canadian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™, a comprehensive and early indicator of trends in the Canadian manufacturing sector. The latest survey found weaker expansion of both output and new orders in May, but a solid rise in employment.

Global manufacturing sector cools further in May

Wed, 01 Jun 2011 12:00:00 GMT

At 52.9 in May, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ fell for the third month running to reach its lowest level since September 2010. Although the headline index remained above the neutral 50.0 mark for the twenty-third successive month, the rate of growth was below the average for this period. Rates of expansion eased for manufacturing output, new orders, new export orders and employment.

Japan's manufacturing recovery on track as supply chain pressures ease

Tue, 31 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

PMI™ survey data pointed to a welcome rebound in Japanese manufacturing activity during May, with the survey’s Output Index soaring 17 points to signal growth for the first time in three months. The index had slumped sharply in March before dipping to a 25-month low in April. Official data subsequently showed a record fall in manufacturing production in March.

Week ahead economic calendar [30 May – 03 June]: PMI™ data to highlight global business trends in May

Fri, 27 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

PMI™ surveys from around the world will provide insight into the health of the global economy in May. The week also sees the release of three of the world’s most market-moving economic indicators: the ISM PMI reports for the US and US non-farm payrolls. Meanwhile, with a July rate hike in the offing, the flash inflation estimate for the Eurozone will be watched closely.

China’s manufacturing sector loses further growth momentum in May

Mon, 23 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

PMI survey data released today show that China’s manufacturing economy grew at its slowest rate for ten months in May. Output rose only marginally, as new order growth cooled and new export business fell for the first time in three months. On the prices front, input cost inflation moderated to a nine-month low, which in turn contributed to a slower increase in charges at the factory gate.

Eurozone growth slips to seven month low in May, but price pressures ease

Mon, 23 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Flash Eurozone Composite Output Index, based on around 85% of usual monthly replies, fell to 55.4 in May to signal the weakest rate of growth in manufacturing and services for seven months. Moreover, the deceleration was the steepest since November 2008.

Week ahead economic calendar [23-27 May]: Flash PMIs will provide the first insight into business conditions in May

Fri, 20 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Flash PMIs for the Eurozone should act as a good guide to how the economy is performing in Q2. Meanwhile, the China Flash PMI will highlight recent price, growth and trade trends, followed by Japanese trade data later in the week. Second estimates of GDP for the US, Germany and UK are not expected to show major revisions, but will provide important extra detail.

Latest worldwide PMI release dates

Thu, 19 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

PMI release dates for 2011.

Official data confirm that Japan moved back into recession in Q1

Thu, 19 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Japan’s economy shrank at a quarterly rate of 0.9% in Q1 2011, tipping the country back into recession as the earthquake and tsunami of March 11 weighed heavily on domestic consumption and companies reduced their inventories amid widespread disruption to the supply chain. However, after estimating for survivorship bias in March, the Manufacturing PMI suggests that the economy may have contracted at an even sharper rate than indicated by the Q1 preliminary estimate.

Further fall in UK unemployment, but labour market conditions remain fragile

Wed, 18 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

There were more mixed signals from the official UK labour market data, as claimant count unemployment rose but the ILO measure showed falling joblessness. The general message seems to be one of an improving – albeit still fragile – labour market.

Week ahead economic calendar [16-20 May]: UK economy in the limelight

Fri, 13 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

UK inflation, labour market and retail sales data are all published, as well as the Bank of England MPC Minutes. US industrial production data for April will provide a glimpse into Q2 activity, while the Eurozone sees the release of final consumer price inflation and trade figures. Preliminary GDP numbers are likely to show that Japan entered technical recession in Q1.

Eurozone GDP rebounds in Q1 with lop-sided growth surge

Fri, 13 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Our analysis of Eurozone PMI data on 24 March estimated that the survey was “consistent with GDP rising 0.8%” in Q1. We noted that “Germany continued to lead the pack in Q1, expanding by possibly as much as 1.5%”. These predictions proved accurate according to preliminary estimates of GDP. However, like the surveys, the official data also highlight the lop-sided nature of the recovery.

Global price pressures ease to four-month low

Wed, 11 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The JPMorgan Global PMI, compiled by Markit from national business surveys of manufacturing and service sector business conditions, showed input costs continuing to rise at a steep pace in April. However, the rate of increase slowed for the second month running to show the weakest increase in costs since last December.

UK consumer spending jumps in April but fundamentals have not improved

Tue, 10 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Warm weather, an extra bank holiday and the timing of Easter all encouraged the UK consumer to spend in April. The Visa Europe: UK Expenditure Index, published earlier this week, showed a 3.6% year-on-year increase in consumer spending in April. That took the three-month average rate of increase up to 2.1% from a paltry 0.7% in March and the declines earlier in the year.

EU sector data signalled broad-based easing in growth and price pressures in April

Tue, 10 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The latest European Union PMI sector data showed that rates of expansion slowed in 12 sectors in April, but that business-facing manufacturers typically proved the most resilient. The latest detailed data also signalled that input prices rose at slower rates in most areas at the start of Q2, but that cost pressures nevertheless remained elevated in almost all sectors covered.

EU auto makers suffer from combination of rising price pressures, supply chain delays and weaker sales growth

Tue, 10 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Detailed EU sector PMI data showed that automobiles & parts saw the sharpest acceleration of input cost inflation of all sectors covered in April, and an overall rate that was the second-highest since the series began in 1998. Autos firms also suffered the second-greatest extent of supply chain delays of all sectors, in part linked to disruptions emanating from the Japanese earthquake of 11 March.

Global growth at 21-month low in April

Mon, 09 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The JPMorgan Global PMI, compiled by Markit, indicated the weakest growth of the global economy since the recovery began in August 2009. Although much of the deterioration could be linked to the Japanese earthquake, the pace of expansion also slowed outside of Japan. A further easing in new order growth meanwhile suggests that the global economic growth rate could cool further in coming months.

Week ahead economic calendar [9-13 May]: Central bank reports and European growth data to help guide policy outlook

Fri, 06 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Bank of England publishes its quarterly Inflation Report on Wednesday, which is likely to show a downgrading of both economic growth and inflation forecasts. Meanwhile, China’s monthly data dump will be eyed for signs that recent policy tightening measures are having an impact. The week draws to a close with the publication of preliminary GDP data for the Eurozone, including estimates for Germany, France and Italy. We expect the single currency area to have rebounded from the slowdown seen late last year and grown 0.8% quarter-on-quarter.

UK PMI surveys point to sharp growth slowdown in April

Thu, 05 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The April UK PMIs indicated the largest loss of momentum seen since the Lehmans collapse in late-2008. However, a myriad of factors is causing an unusually high degree of uncertainty in gauging the strength of growth in Q2. These include the performance of construction, signs of manufacturing order book growth slowing rapidly, government spending cuts, unusual weather and public holidays.

ECB poised to hike rates in July, while US and UK look set to hold until 2012

Thu, 05 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank all left policy unchanged at their April/May meetings, as anticipated by most analysts. However, while the ECB looks set to hike rates again in the summer, no change is likely until later this year, or even early next year, in the US or UK.

Eurozone starts second quarter on solid footing

Wed, 04 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone Composite Output Index registered 57.8 in April, up slightly from 57.6 in March. Although the index remained below February’s four-and-a-half year high of 58.2, the April reading has been exceeded only once since July 2006. Manufacturing again led the upturn, while the service sector saw a weaker rate of increase than in March.

UK manufacturing expansion slowed further in April

Tue, 03 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI fell to a seven-month low of 54.6 in April, down from a revised reading of 56.7 in March and well below January’s survey-record high. Manufacturers reported further expansions in both production and new orders, albeit at weaker rates. Weaker growth of new business was centred on the domestic market, as growth of new export orders gathered pace.

Smaller manufacturers underperform in UK economic revival

Tue, 03 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Markit’s UK Manufacturing PMI data show that smaller companies have underperformed relative to larger manufacturers in the recovery to date. Although smaller firms saw output rise at the fastest rate since September 1994 when the sector was rebounding sharply out of the financial crisis in March of last year, small firms have since seen slower growth than medium- and large-sized companies.

Global manufacturing PMI at five-month low in April

Tue, 03 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

April saw growth of the global manufacturing sector cool further from the booming rates of expansion seen at the start of the year. At 55.0 in April, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI fell for the second successive month to its lowest level since last November.

Germany leads Eurozone manufacturing’s best start to the year since 2000, but Greece contracts and Spain slides towards stagnation

Mon, 02 May 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was boosted by output and new orders both rising slightly faster than indicated by earlier flash estimates. Looking at the PMI data by country, Germany, the Netherlands and France led the national rankings. Greece was the only nation to report a contraction, although Spain slipped closer to stagnation.

Chinese manufacturing output growth slows to nine-month low in April.

Fri, 29 Apr 2011 12:00:00 GMT

April’s HSBC China Manufacturing PMI survey pointed to relatively lacklustre growth of new business and a slower expansion in manufacturing production. Despite this, firms added to their workforce numbers at the fastest rate since last December. Meanwhile, companies continued to reduce their stocks of purchases, partly in an attempt to mitigate against delays in the supply chain.

Japan Manufacturing PMI™ hits two-year low in April, though even larger drop in output signalled after estimating for survivorship bias

Thu, 28 Apr 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The PMI showed ongoing disruption to the manufacturing sector in April following the 11 March earthquake. After estimating for non-responding companies, the data show that the rate of decline in the past two months has exceeded that seen in the aftermath of the US terrorist attacks in 2001. Falling production comes as no surprise. The uncertainty relates to the speed with which the economy can rebound. A return to job shedding suggests that firms are worried about order books and cautious about their ability to rebuild production as supply shortages hit a record high.

UK economy shows feeble rebound in Q1 as construction slumps

Wed, 27 Apr 2011 12:00:00 GMT

According to initial official estimates of gross domestic product, a surprise fall in Q4 2010 has been followed by a modest 0.5% rebound in Q1. The main area of weakness is construction, which contracted by a startling 4.7%. We find this hard to reconcile with the survey evidence, however, and maintain our belief that the sector probably rebounded from the bad weather at the end of last year.

Latest worldwide PMI release dates

Tue, 26 Apr 2011 12:00:00 GMT

PMI release dates for 2011.

GDP and inflation data to provide central bank policy insights in the week commencing 15 April

Thu, 21 Apr 2011 12:00:00 GMT

A data-heavy week sees key GDP and inflation releases, with UK GDP numbers published on Wednesday likely to show a rebound in economic growth, but we would not be surprised if expansion was as weak as 0.3% or as strong as 0.8%. US GDP figures are published on Thursday, with growth expected to have slowed but the reading could well understate the current strong pace of growth momentum. Eurozone inflation data may add to calls for a further hike in rates by the ECB, while the Bank of Japan and the Fed will almost certainly keep their policy rates on hold.

EU: Stronger services growth offsets manufacturing slowdown

Fri, 08 Apr 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The latest EU sector PMI data provide further clues as to the key growth drivers at the end of Q1. The March data showed further strong output growth in the leading manufacturing sectors, despite the pace easing from recent highs. Other notable trends included faster growth from business-facing service sectors and the strongest rise in banking activity since the eve of the credit crunch.

Global growth slows sharply as US cools and Japan contracts

Thu, 07 Apr 2011 12:00:00 GMT

March PMI data signalled a sharp slowdown in the rate of expansion of the global economy, mainly reflecting a marked contraction in Japan following the Tohoku earthquake and a significant easing in the main pillar of recent growth, the US.

German output surges higher following robust growth of new orders

Thu, 07 Apr 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Buoyant growth of manufacturing output in February, a 1.4% jump in production compared to January, followed similarly upbeat data earlier this week showing solid growth of new orders. The latter rose 2.4% in February, building on a 3.1% increase in January.

ECB is first G4 central bank to hike interest rates

Thu, 07 Apr 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The European Central Bank has become the first of the G4 central banks to start normalising policy since rates were cut to record lows during the financial crisis, hiking its main policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%. The Bank of England decided to hold rates at 0.5% at its April meeting, while US and Japanese policy rates were left unchanged at 0.25% and zero respectively.

Emerging market growth stays firm in Q1, while cost inflation soars to highest since Q2 2008

Thu, 07 Apr 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The HSBC Emerging Markets Index (EMI), a quarterly indicator derived from the PMI surveys, showed that emerging market growth eased slightly in the first quarter of 2011. The index dipped from a figure of 55.7 to 55.0, but was broadly in line with the long-run series average of 54.9. The slight moderation in emerging market growth reflected slower expansions in services and manufacturing, with growth in the former hitting a near two-year low. Manufacturers recorded a faster rate of expansion than service providers for the second quarter in succession.

UK: Manufacturing uncertainty and consumer woes

Wed, 06 Apr 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The manufacturing recovery stalled in February, according to official figures. While the less volatile PMI suggests that underlying momentum is stronger, the official data will provide ammunition for the doves at the Bank of England, coming on the same day that data from Visa and Markit indicate that the consumer is being squeezed by falling real incomes, tax hikes and government cuts.

Service sector continues to hold back Russian economic growth

Tue, 05 Apr 2011 00:00:00 GMT

The latest Russian services PMI data published by HSBC and Markit failed to show strengthening momentum in the sector, after earlier manufacturing data signalled the best overall improvement in business conditions in the goods-producing sector since August 2006. PMI data for Q1 pictured a solid rate of growth, but Russia remains the weakest-growing of the so-called BRIC group.

UK PMIs put economic growth at 13-month high in March

Tue, 05 Apr 2011 00:00:00 GMT

The PMI surveys indicated a gathering in the rate of economic growth in March, pointing to a strong economic rebound in the first quarter. The latest reading will add to pressure for the Bank of England to hike interest rates, but the case is not straightforward as the surveys also suggest that growth could weaken in the coming months.

Growth of UK service sector accelerated in March to the fastest pace in over a year

Tue, 05 Apr 2011 00:00:00 GMT

UK service sector activity growth surged in March to its strongest for thirteen months, as companies benefited from improved business conditions, higher sales and increased enquiries. Capacity levels were tested, leading to a slight rise in employment for the first time in nine months. However, optimism regarding future activity was slightly down since the previous month.

Pace of Eurozone recovery eased in March but held close to four-and-a-half year high. National divergences widened.

Tue, 05 Apr 2011 00:00:00 GMT

The final Eurozone PMI data for March rounded off a solid first quarter, consistent with GDP rising by 0.8% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Job creation also hit a new post-recession high in Q1 as companies looked to expand capacity. National growth divergences widened, however, as domestic demand in the periphery continued to be affected by austerity measures and political uncertainty.

Japan: Private sector activity fell at the sharpest rate in two years amid severe disruption caused by Tohoku earthquake

Tue, 05 Apr 2011 00:00:00 GMT

PMI survey data pointed to a marked decline in Japanese service sector activity during March, mainly reflecting extensive disruption caused by the Tohoku earthquake. As a result, firms were the most pessimistic about the one-year business outlook since March 2009.

US Manufacturing PMI slips from near-record peak due to slower growth of new orders. But output and employment continue to surge higher.

Fri, 01 Apr 2011 00:00:00 GMT

US manufacturing continued to boom in March. The headline PMI eased only slightly from the post-recession high seen in February and the survey's Output Index, which correlates well with industrial production, rose to show the strongest growth for over seven years. The index is consistent with manufacturing production rising by 3% on a 3m/3m basis in March, and suggests that the sector will have provided a strong contribution to GDP growth in Q1.

Global manufacturing growth slips in March from near-record high.

Fri, 01 Apr 2011 00:00:00 GMT

The JPMorgan Global PMI for manufacturing showed the largest points fall for nine months in March, with the index easing to a three-month low of 55.8 from February’s near record high of 57.4 (the record is 57.9). The decline was led by deteriorations in the survey’s output and new orders indices.

Japan manufacturing PMI suffers record fall in March

Thu, 31 Mar 2011 00:00:00 GMT

A record fall in the Japanese manufacturing PMI for March is consistent with production falling by approximately 7% on a 3-month on 3-month basis and raises the possibility of a slide back into recession. Contraction is also likely in Q2 due to the fact that the crisis is ongoing and the impact on supply chains, which suffered the record delays in March. However, growth could strengthen substantially in the second half of the year. This not only reflects reconstruction, but also reflects the improving trade situation before the quake struck. Manufacturers had been taking on staff at an increased rate in March, anticipating further order book growth.

Official data confirm January rebound in UK services output, pointing to the possibility of firm GDP growth in Q1

Wed, 30 Mar 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Latest data from the UK Office for National Statistics indicated a strong recovery of service sector activity in January, suggesting that GDP may have risen strongly in Q1 following the dismal 0.5% contraction seen in the final quarter of last year.

Eurozone GDP set to rebound in Q1

Thu, 24 Mar 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Markit's Flash Eurozone PMI remained elevated in March, dipping only slightly from February's four-and-a-half year high. The latest data round off the strongest quarter since Q3 2006 and are consistent with GDP rising by 0.8%, well above the disappointing 0.3% increase seen in the final quarter of last year.

French rebound clouded by rising prices and weak job creation

Thu, 24 Mar 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Buoyant flash PMI data for March indicate that the French economy expanded strongly in Q1, but also point to rising price pressures and disappointing job creation. Rising costs may be discouraging recruitment as firms seek to boost productivity and protect profit margins, but this may be about to change.

German GDP growth set to rebound strongly in Q1

Thu, 24 Mar 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Markit’s flash PMI data for March indicate that growth momentum has picked up sharply in Germany since the slowdown seen late last year. The data are roughly consistent with GDP rising by as much as 1.5% in Q1, which is almost double the 0.8% increase signalled by PMI data for the Eurozone as a whole in the first quarter of 2011.

Japan’s earthquake set to hit already stretched supply chains, with record delays having already been reported by EU auto makers in February.

Mon, 21 Mar 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Japanese disaster has raised concerns about global supply chains, especially in relation to shortages of auto parts and electronic components. PMI survey data show that these anticipated delays are set to exacerbate an already serious situation in Europe, with purchasing managers there reporting near-record supply chain delays in February even before the earthquake and tsunami struck.

Economic diary for week commencing 21 March 2011

Fri, 18 Mar 2011 12:00:00 GMT

A week likely to be dominated by ongoing events in Japan and the Middle East also contains a busy economic diary, starting with the release of Markit’s household finance survey, which will provide insight into consumer sentiment in the lead up to the UK Budget on Wednesday. The Bank of England minutes, published mid-week, meanwhile will be eyed for signs of Monetary Policy Committee members becoming increasingly hawkish. Markit’s Flash PMIs will provide an early snapshot of business conditions in the Eurozone and China when data are released on Thursday.

Latest worldwide PMI release dates

Fri, 18 Mar 2011 12:00:00 GMT

PMI release dates for 2011.

Eurozone trade deficit widens but export growth accelerates. Further boost expected for February but outlook becomes more uncertain

Fri, 18 Mar 2011 12:00:00 GMT

A larger than expected widening of the Eurozone trade deficit in January should not distract from some very encouraging news on exports. PMI data indicate that export growth continued to gather momentum in February, but the outlook for trade has become more uncertain due to recent events in Japan and the implications for both economic growth and supply chain disruptions.

UK: Business outlook survey tracks improved sentiment at manufacturers and service providers

Mon, 14 Mar 2011 12:00:00 GMT

February survey data from KPMG and Markit signalled an improvement in sentiment regarding business prospects in the UK manufacturing and service sectors over the next twelve months. However, a sharp projected rise in input costs is expected to restrict profit growth in both sectors.

Global price pressures: not just food and oil

Fri, 11 Mar 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI – compiled by Markit – signalled a further sharp acceleration of input price inflation in February, with prices rising at the fastest rate since July 2008. Although it has been widely reported that cost inflation reflects higher commodity, food and energy prices, PMI survey data provide strong evidence that rising cost pressures have in part been driven by supply chain factors.

Global growth at near five-year high in February

Thu, 10 Mar 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Fast and accelerating global growth was recorded by the PMIs in February, but national divergences are still evident. US policies to boost growth appear to be raising domestic demand and supporting exports. In contrast, Chinese policy tightening to fight inflation and deficit-fighting measures in the Eurozone periphery and the UK are showing signs of cooling domestic demand in those economies.

EU: Recovery broadening across industries, but price pressures surge

Tue, 08 Mar 2011 12:00:00 GMT

EU sector data signalled that manufacturers continued to lead the recovery, but many other sectors saw faster growth. Meanwhile, the intensification of inflationary pressures was a key theme. Ten sectors posted record increases in input prices, while seven signalled a record increase in output prices. This will provide further ammunition to calls for rate hikes at the ECB and Bank of England.

Global PMI: Employment growth hits three-and-a-half year high in February

Mon, 07 Mar 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The global economy moved up a gear at the start of 2011, generating a welcome upturn in developed world job creation. Initially dependent upon manufacturing, labour market recoveries are also spreading to the service sector, adding to hopes that recoveries are becoming more self-sustaining.

Economic calendar for week commencing 7 March

Fri, 04 Mar 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Bank of England interest rate announcement on Thursday is set to be the highlight of the week. China is also provisionally scheduled to release a raft of macroeconomic data, with inflation figures the most keenly anticipated. Meanwhile, the US sees consumer confidence and retail data releases, culminating in the University of Michigan survey on Friday.

UK economy expands at 0.4% quarterly rate in February, 0.5% in Q1

Thu, 03 Mar 2011 12:00:00 GMT

UK PMI surveys pointed to further robust growth in February, suggesting gross domestic product will have recovered in Q1 from the decline seen in the final quarter of last year. However, the rebound flatters the rate of expansion and the underlying trend is likely to have remained weak as fragile consumer demand offsets manufacturing expansion.

Markit Eurozone Composite PMI

Thu, 03 Mar 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone growth in February was the highest since July 2006, led by marked expansions in Germany and France. Meanwhile, inflationary pressure continued to build, as input costs and output prices rose at faster rates.

Pressure mounts for early euro rate hike

Thu, 03 Mar 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The ECB kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.0% today, as expected. However, President Trichet warned that the risk of higher inflation has moved on the upside since the January and February meetings, and that the ECB is prepared to change policy in a "firm and timely manner". An increase in rates as soon as next month was cited as "possible". The case for an early hike in interest has strengthened due to three key factors: strong growth, higher price pressures, and signs of life in the periphery.

Global exports revive, but growth is skewed towards the US and Europe

Wed, 02 Mar 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Global trade flows have accelerated again, having slowed in the second half of last year. The JPMorgan Global PMI showed manufacturing exports growing at the fastest rate since May 2010 in February. This bodes well for the worldwide economic recovery, but national variations have widened.

HSBC China Manufacturing PMI

Tue, 01 Mar 2011 12:00:00 GMT

PMI survey data signalled that Chinese manufacturing operating conditions continued to improve in February, albeit at a markedly reduced rate. Output rose only modestly, as new business growth slowed. Meanwhile, companies continued to pass on strong cost inflation to clients through increased factory gate charges.

Markit / CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI

Tue, 01 Mar 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The UK manufacturing sector maintained its strong start to 2011, resulting in a further survey- record rate of job creation. Meanwhile, output prices rose at the second-fastest pace in the survey history.

Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

Tue, 01 Mar 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was at a near 11-year peak in February. Growth was still led by Germany, but renewed vigour was also exhibited by ‘peripheral’ nations. Input costs rose at record rates in almost all nations, however, with Greece and Ireland the only exceptions.

Latest worldwide PMI release dates

Mon, 21 Feb 2011 12:00:00 GMT

PMI release dates for March and April 2011.

Slowdown in UK employee earnings growth signals absence of ‘second round’ inflation effects

Wed, 16 Feb 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Official data today show a drop in employee earnings growth. This is arguably more important than yesterday's rise in headline inflation as far as the Bank of England's policy making is concerned. The rise in consumer price inflation was expected, while slower average earnings growth is a surprise and suggests that the longer-term inflation outlook is even more benign than previously expected.

Bad weather subdued Eurozone growth in Q4

Tue, 15 Feb 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone economic growth failed to accelerate, as many had expected, towards the end of last year. GDP growth was unchanged in Q4 on the sluggish 0.3% quarterly rate of increase seen in Q3. Growth disappointed in Germany, France and Italy, with GDP rising 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. Mixed signals came from the periphery; while Spain grew 0.2%, Portugal slid back into contraction, with GDP dropping 0.3%, and Greece remained firmly in recession, posting a 1.4% quarterly decline.

Signs of export growth in Eurozone periphery, but domestic demand remains subdued

Fri, 11 Feb 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The focus of financial markets has shifted in recent weeks away from the troubles in the Eurozone periphery to concerns over the political turmoil engulfing Egypt and the surrounding region. At first glance, the latest PMI readings suggest that the ‘peripheral’ nations (Greece, Ireland, Italy and Spain) are, in some cases, starting to reap the benefits of a global recovery. Manufacturing production rose strongly in Italy and Ireland in January, driven principally by strong export orders. Support from the ECB, in the form of bond purchases, has also been welcomed.

Global economic growth hits post-crisis high, led by developed markets

Fri, 11 Feb 2011 12:00:00 GMT

January saw global economic growth continue to recover strongly from the slowdown seen in the third quarter of last year. However, while fears of double-dip recessions have eased, worries about inflation have intensified, especially in emerging nations.

Global manufacturing price pressures continue to build but longer term inflation outlook remains uncertain

Thu, 10 Feb 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI – compiled by Markit – showed that input cost inflation rose to a two-and-a-half year high in January. Price rises were reported for a wide variety of raw materials, including many agricultural commodities, fuels and metals.

High UK inflation showing little sign of feeding through to pay rates

Thu, 10 Feb 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Bank of England left policy unchanged after its February meeting. It is likely that the debate heated up further from the January meeting, with increased pressure from some members of the Monetary Policy Committee to raise rates and shore up the Bank's inflation fighting credibility. However, this looks to have been the most appropriate outcome given the data that are currently available.

China’s monetary tightening starts to bite

Wed, 09 Feb 2011 12:00:00 GMT

HSBC PMI survey data, compiled by Markit, signalled that China’s private sector economy continued to expand at a strong pace at the start of 2011. However, growth eased further from October’s peak as the authorities continued to tighten monetary policy in an attempt to rein in inflation and mop up excess liquidity.

Developed world employment growth highest for over three years

Wed, 09 Feb 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Sector PMIs reveal ongoing lop-sided EU recovery

Tue, 08 Feb 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The latest batch of detailed EU sector PMI data from Markit showed a notable improvement in growth rates across many industry sectors in January. However, the latest data also highlighted surging cost pressures.

UK PMIs rebound to signal strongest growth for eight months in January

Thu, 03 Feb 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit/CIPS PMIs showed a rebound in activity in January, raising hopes that the economy will return to expansion in Q1, having posted a surprise 0.5% contraction in the final quarter of last year.

Record breaking start to 2011 signals manufacturing remains a leading light for UK economy

Tue, 01 Feb 2011 12:00:00 GMT

PMI data signalled that the UK manufacturing sector made a spectacular start to 2011. Growth of both new orders and employment picked up sharply to the highest rates in the 19-year survey history, allowing manufacturers to ramp up production to the greatest extent since 1994.

Japanese recovery back on track after Q4 lull

Mon, 31 Jan 2011 12:00:00 GMT

PMI survey data indicate that Japan’s manufacturing sector returned to growth at the start of 2011, raising hopes that economic growth will resume in the first quarter. The economy is expected to have slipped back into contraction in the final quarter of last year.

Bad weather causes renewed contraction of UK economy

Tue, 25 Jan 2011 12:00:00 GMT

A surprisingly sharp fall in UK gross domestic product in Q4 (-0.5% compared to a 0.7% rise in the third quarter, according to the preliminary estimate) was even worse than the most pessimistic forecaster had anticipated. The decline was the first since 2009 Q3.

Strong Chinese GDP growth sparks overheating concern

Thu, 20 Jan 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Chinese economic growth accelerated to 9.8% y/y in Q4. This had been anticipated by the HSBC China Composite PMI, which averaged its highest quarterly reading since Q1 2010 when the economy grew 11.9% y/y. China’s strong end to 2010 will fuel fears of overheating and raise the likelihood of further monetary tightening.

Further signs of weakening UK labour market

Wed, 19 Jan 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Today’s UK labour market data presented another mixed bag of indicators, though on the whole presented a picture of a softening trend, with weak demand for staff from employers meaning pay growth stayed subdued.

Further evidence of Eurozone production surge, but national divergences have widened as periphery loses out to Eastern Europe

Fri, 14 Jan 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone production surged higher in November, supporting the upbeat picture from Markit’s PMIs. The PMIs also showed a further widening of national growth divergences in the single currency area. Manufacturing in the Eurozone periphery is struggling to reap the benefits of faster growth in Germany and emerging markets, with expansion well below that seen in Central and Eastern Europe.

Global economic growth resurgent at end of 2010

Thu, 13 Jan 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The worldwide PMI surveys suggested a sharp acceleration in global GDP growth to an annual rate of just over 3.5% at the end of 2010. The growth spurt will further calm any lingering fears of a double-dip recession. However, some signs of underlying weakness remain. Job creation is still subdued overall, while the resurgence in the global service sector has been overly reliant on the US.

Soaring commodity prices fuel inflation spike in December

Thu, 13 Jan 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Rising commodity prices are feeding through global supply chains, most notably driving a record (19-year high) rise in UK manufacturers’ input prices in December. Central banks in several emerging markets have already responded to rising price pressures with higher interest rates. With inflation already above target in the UK and the Eurozone, latest data have increased the chances of earlier than expected rate hikes in Europe.

PMI data signal greater likelihood of Eurozone rate hike compared to UK

Thu, 13 Jan 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB) held policy rates steady at 0.5% and 1.0% respectively in January, despite inflation being above target in both regions. Past experience suggests the Bank of England will tolerate above-target inflation in the current environment. In contrast, the ECB has previously shown itself to be more eager to quash rising inflationary pressures.

UK manufacturing production up 0.6% in November

Thu, 13 Jan 2011 12:00:00 GMT

November data from the ONS reported a 0.4% monthly increase in industrial production, slightly below market expectations, but still an improvement on the marginal drop seen in the previous month. Manufacturing was the strongest performer within the sector, seeing a 0.6% increase, whereas mining and extraction was a drag on growth – reporting a 0.7% decline in output.

EU sectors: manufacturers continued to lead the recovery in December as bad weather hit services and construction

Mon, 10 Jan 2011 12:00:00 GMT

EU PMI data covering seven broad industry groups and 22 detailed sectors showed that heavy manufacturers remained the best performers in December, while recent heavy snow in Northern Europe affected activity in sectors such as construction and transport. Although January should see a rebound from the harsh weather, the data also show underlying weaknesses in consumer- and finance-related sectors.

Uptick in emerging market growth but inflation provides sting in the tail

Mon, 10 Jan 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The HSBC Emerging Markets Index (EMI) for the fourth quarter of 2010 shows that economic growth in the emerging world accelerated at the end of last year following a temporary lull in the third quarter. Although not quite back to the highs recorded earlier in 2010, the Q4 reading of 55.7, up from 54.2 in the third quarter, confirms that the emerging nations continue to expand at a pace well ahead of the developed world.

German manufacturing output set to rebound after fall in November

Fri, 07 Jan 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Data from the Federal Statistics Office showed German industrial production falling 0.7% in November. Manufacturing output fell 0.6% and construction by 1.1%. As the official data are very volatile month-to-month, these declines should be treated with caution. Moreover, PMI data suggests growth has since picked up again.

Poor weather led to marginal fall in UK services activity during December. Cost pressures intensified.

Thu, 06 Jan 2011 12:00:00 GMT

Poor weather and snow impacted heavily on the UK service sector at the end of 2010. Both activity and new business were down marginally in December, and there were again reports that underlying trends remained subdued. This led to another month of job losses and also served to subdue business confidence.

PMI data signal near-stagnation of UK economy in December

Thu, 06 Jan 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The UK’s reliance on manufacturing as the driver of its economic recovery grew increasingly evident in December. Manufacturers finished the year with a bang, as growth of output accelerated on the back of surging exports. In contrast, services and construction slipped back into contraction, with activity levels declining for the first time since April 2009 and February 2010 respectively.

Growth of global economy at eight-month high in December

Thu, 06 Jan 2011 12:00:00 GMT

At 57.1 in December, up from 54.5 in November, the JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index rose to its highest level since April. Activity growth in the service sector outpaced the rate of expansion in manufacturing output for the second month running.

UK housing market starts 2011 on downward trend

Wed, 05 Jan 2011 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI showed a fall in housing sector activity for the fourth consecutive month in December. The rate of decline gathered pace to hit a 20-month high. The data suggest that the weakening in recent house price data has further to run.

Eurozone recovery remained on track but uneven at the end of 2010, as strong France-Germany core offset weakness elsewhere

Wed, 05 Jan 2011 12:00:00 GMT

At 55.5 in December, unchanged from November’s three-month high, the final Markit Eurozone Composite Output Index was above the earlier flash estimate of 55.0. Based on its historical relationship against official data, the headline index is consistent with Eurozone GDP rising at a quarterly rate of around 0.5% in the final three months of 2010.

UK investment spending surge loses momentum

Tue, 04 Jan 2011 12:00:00 GMT

National accounts data were revised to show a sharp rise in business investment spending in the third quarter of last year. But PMI data suggest that the surge has already waned (and possibly did not even occur in the first place), pointing to a less robust economic recovery than official data currently suggest.

Rise in UK unemployment highlights continued job market fragility

Wed, 15 Dec 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Latest data from the Office for National Statistics signalled a 35,000 rise in unemployment in the three months to October, the first time in six months in which the jobless total has increased. The weak official figures corroborated more up-to-date survey data highlighting a deteriorating job market trend.

China: industrial supply chain price pressures drive inflation higher

Thu, 9 Dec 2010 12:00:00 GMT

China’s manufacturing sector continued to recover from its mid-year slowdown in November, with both output and new business increasing strongly according to PMI data. Such robust growth, combined with surging input cost inflation, reinforces the likelihood of further monetary tightening as the authorities seek to prevent overheating and curb inflation.

Fears of global economic double-dip have receded, but pace of growth has slipped well below pre-recession levels

Thu, 9 Dec 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The worldwide PMI surveys signal steady but unspectacular GDP growth in November. While disappointing when viewed against the strong pace seen earlier in the year, the risk of a worldwide decline back into recession has at least receded compared with the situation in September. Whether growth can be sustained at the current pace may depend to a great extent on the service sector.

EU sectors: consumer sector acts as drag on recovery

Wed, 8 Dec 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The latest EU data covering seven broad industry groups and 22 detailed sectors signalled that consumer services and financials are the key areas weighing on the region’s private sector recovery. There is also evidence of a growing divergence between the best- and worst-performing sectors.

Developed world employment growth continues, but may be set to ease if service sector growth fails to accelerate

Wed, 8 Dec 2010 12:00:00 GMT

PMI data pointed to an improved rate of job creation across the developed world in November. However, weaker new business growth in manufacturing will lead to an easing in the rate of expansion unless service sector jobs growth can accelerate.

US and Europe enjoy strong export growth

Tue, 7 Dec 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Global exports continued to rise at a strong pace in November. Growth remained largely biased towards Western countries, however, where the weakness of the US dollar and the euro are likely to be boosting competitiveness.

Manufacturing and overseas trade to sustain UK recovery in Q4

Fri, 3 Dec 2010 12:00:00 GMT

PMI data from Markit signalled that although the UK economy continued to recover in November, the overall rate of expansion so far in Q4 remains below the high seen earlier in the year. Manufacturing and overseas trade are set to continue to play central roles in driving the expansion, but construction, services, household consumption and capital spending all remained drags on overall growth.

Russian growth remains lacklustre as inflationary pressures rise

Fri, 3 Dec 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The latest PMI data are signalling a moderate pick-up in Russian economic growth after a slowdown in the third quarter. But growth momentum in manufacturing and services has yet to reach pre-crisis levels, and inflationary pressures are growing.

Retail sector adds to upbeat German PMI results for November

Mon, 29 Nov 2010 12:00:00 GMT

November’s PMI data show that consumer spending has continued to take off in Germany as the recovery spreads beyond the country’s export-driven manufacturing sector. With companies taking on staff in ever increasing numbers, incomes, job security and consumer confidence have all improved dramatically, fuelling a much-awaited retail revival.

Consumer spending puts French Q4 GDP at risk

Mon, 29 Nov 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Retail PMI data show that French consumers appeared little-daunted by the growing financial crisis in November, with sales climbing sharply higher than October. The rise was largely to be expected, however, reflecting pension reform protest-related disruptions to spending patterns in October. However, the impact of the disruptions could dampen consumer spending and therefore GDP growth in Q4.

UK Q3 GDP data are first step in shift to slower growth phase

Wed, 24 Nov 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The Office for National Statistics’ second estimate for UK gross domestic product showed the headline quarterly growth rate unrevised on the earlier estimate of 0.8% for Q3. Growth has slowed from the 1.2% spurt seen in Q2, but nevertheless showed surprising resilience overall, boosted by exports. However, in line with the advance signals from surveys, cracks in the recovery have appeared.

Rebound in Eurozone manufacturing output and jobs growth mask uneven recovery

Tue, 23 Nov 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI™ rose to a four-month high of 55.5 in November, following stronger growth of production, new orders and employment. But the rising PMI disguised the ongoing growth disparities between nations, as stronger rates of expansion in Germany and France stood in marked contrast to the generally lacklustre performances seen elsewhere.

Slower growth phase signalled by downturn in global business confidence

Mon, 22 Nov 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The autumn 2010 Global Outlook Survey, compiled by Markit for KPMG, signals a fall in business confidence since the summer amid concern over lacklustre growth in a number of key economies. Although there is little indication that a world-wide double-dip recession in on the cards – as optimists continue to comfortably outnumber pessimists – the survey indicates that the recovery looks set to lose pace next year.

Business optimism fades amid slow US recovery

Mon, 22 Nov 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The autumn 2010 Global Outlook Survey, compiled by Markit for KPMG, signal a marked drop in confidence among US companies since the summer. Concerns over sluggish economic growth in the US weighed on sentiment, with expectations regarding future activity levels falling to the lowest in the past four outlook surveys.

UK claimant count fell unexpectedly in October, but job market outlook remains bleak

Wed, 17 Nov 2010 12:00:00 GMT

UK unemployment showed a surprise fall in October. On the face of it, the latest figures suggest that the labour market is improving as the economy continues to grow. However, the improvement looks at odds with recent survey data, and a growing body of evidence suggests that the situation is set to deteriorate in coming months.

Eurozone GDP data confirm sharp slowdown in Q3

Fri, 12 Nov 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone economic recovery lost momentum in Q3, as expected and in line with the earlier message from the PMI surveys. Gross domestic product rose 0.4% in the three months to September compared with a 1.0% rise in Q2. Further weakness looks likely in coming months, especially as domestic demand looks set to remain lacklustre in the face of financial market, international trade and political tensions.

Eurozone: industrial production surprises with 0.9% decline in September

Fri, 12 Nov 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Eurostat reported a surprise 0.9% decline in Eurozone industrial production in September, much weaker than the consensus forecast of a 0.3% increase. The performance of German manufacturing was particularly unexpected, with output dropping 0.8%. Monthly production data are notoriously volatile, but even the underlying trend is consistent with a sharp slowdown in the industrial sector.

Risk of double-dip recession rises as Japan’s export-led growth falters

Tue, 9 Nov 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Fears of a double-dip recession in Japan were reinforced by PMI data in October, which showed private sector output falling at the fastest rate in nine months.

Global economic growth accelerates for first time in six months

Mon, 8 Nov 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The October PMI™ surveys showed that growth of the global private sector economy accelerated for the first time since April, reducing concerns about a possible ’double-dip’ recession. The improvement was broad-based by sector, with both manufacturing and service sector activity rising at stronger rates.

EU sectors: Muted banking activity set to limit growth

Fri, 5 Nov 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The sector PMIs show the emergence of winners and losers across different EU industries. October data signalled that autos and business-facing manufacturers led growth, while consumer-facing sectors tended to lag behind. Meanwhile, an uneven labour market recovery persisted and muted banking growth is signposting a further easing across the economy as a whole in November and December.

UK house prices trend downwards as house building goes into reverse

Thu, 4 Nov 2010 12:00:00 GMT

According to lender Halifax, house prices rose 1.8% in October. However, the rise should be treated with caution as the underlying picture is one of a weakening housing market, with households also expecting prices to fall further. The Halifax data come on the heels of the Markit/CIPS Construction PMI, which showed house building activity falling for the second successive month in October.

UK economic growth set to slow, but risk of double-dip recedes

Wed, 3 Nov 2010 12:00:00 GMT

UK economic growth gained momentum for a second successive month in October, according to PMI data. However, the rate of expansion has cooled sharply since the spring. Historical comparisons suggest that the PMI surveys point to gross domestic product (GDP) rising at a quarterly rate of roughly 0.4% in October. This suggests that growth at the start of Q4 is far weaker than the official first estimate of 0.8% growth in Q3.

US leads in export performance as global trade growth picks up for first time in six months

Wed, 3 Nov 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Export growth revived in October, led by the developed economies. Emerging markets, in contrast, have seen their exports stagnate in recent months. The data will fuel debate about ‘currency wars’, especially as the depreciation of the US dollar will be seen as a key factor behind the US’s rise to the top of the export growth league table.

China: Resurgent growth raises likelihood of further policy action to cool economy

Mon, 1 Nov 2010 12:00:00 GMT

HSBC PMI figures pointed to strong growth momentum within the manufacturing sector in October, fuelled by surging domestic demand. Such robust growth raises the likelihood of further monetary tightening by the Bank of China following their unexpected decision to lift both the benchmark deposit and lending rates by 25 basis points just a few weeks ago.

Middle East: New PMIs for Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates

Mon, 25 Oct 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Two new PMI surveys were launched by Markit and HSBC in October 2010. The SABB HSBC Saudi Arabia PMI and the HSBC United Arab Emirates PMI cover non-oil producing sectors, including manufacturing, private services, retail and construction.

Germany: PMI and IFO send contrasting signals

Fri, 22 Oct 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Business surveys are sending mixed signals about growth in Germany. While the IFO survey rose close to record levels in October, the PMI has indicated that growth momentum has slowed sharply in recent months, though expansion remains robust.

Eurozone recovery rate slips to weakest for a year

Thu, 21 Oct 2010 12:00:00 GMT

PMI survey data signalled a further slowing in the Eurozone economic recovery at the start of the fourth quarter. Growth is also increasingly dependent on manufacturing, as the service sector outside of the region’s two largest economies of France and Germany slid further into a renewed downturn.

UK claimant count rise adds to signs of job market downturn

Wed, 13 Oct 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The latest batch of labour market data once again provided both good and bad news. Employment rose in the three months to August and the broad 'ILO' measure of unemployment fell from 7.8% to 7.7%. But September saw the biggest rise in claimant count unemployment since January, with the increase for August also revised higher.

Global: Labour markets pose increased risk to economic growth

Tue, 12 Oct 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The global economic recovery continued to be characterised by disappointing job creation in September. The PMI™ surveys show that growth has deteriorated to near-stagnation compared to the encouraging modest gains in headcounts seen earlier in the year. Employment has even begun to fall again in some countries, and fell worldwide in the service sector.

Global: PMIs point to further monetary easing

Tue, 12 Oct 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Calls for renewed economic stimulus in the US and UK are supported by PMI™ survey data, which show business conditions have turned down sharply. The Eurozone PMI is meanwhile moving closer towards levels which in the past would have triggered a rate cut by the European Central Bank.

Widespread growth slowdown evident across EU in September

Thu, 7 Oct 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Detailed analysis of PMI data for the European Union showed slowing growth across many sectors in September, adding weight to the view that economic growth will have eased considerably over Q3. Moreover, new business flows also softened and the performance of both consumer- and finance-related areas remained relatively weak, signalling a further downshift in the final months of 2010.

Global growth slows for fifth month, but some glimmers of hope emerge

Thu, 7 Oct 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The worldwide PMI™ surveys showed that economic growth slowed for a fifth consecutive month in September. Another disappointing weakening in the rate of expansion of the service sector was accompanied by an ongoing cooling in manufacturing.

Emerging market growth loses momentum in Q3

Thu, 7 Oct 2010 12:00:00 GMT

No one said it would be plain sailing. Although rates of economic growth are mostly far higher structurally in the emerging world than in the West, all economies are subject to cyclical stresses and strains. After a robust beginning to 2010, when the emerging nations were easily able to shrug off the worst effects of the global economic downswing, the last two quarters have proved to be a more sobering experience.

UK GDP growth weakened sharply in Q3

Tue, 5 Oct 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The weighted average of the output indices from the three UK PMI surveys rose to 53.2 in September, up from 52.3 in August. Although signalling a slight acceleration in the rate of growth, the reading was the second-lowest over the past year and rounded off the weakest quarter since 2009 Q2.

UK PMI signals renewed downturn in business investment spending

Fri, 1 Oct 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Markit/CIPS PMI™ data relating to the manufacture of investment goods acts as a useful guide to actual business investment spending in the UK, and suggests that – after an initial strong recovery earlier in the year – investment spending growth has begun to wane.

Worldwide export growth rate hits 14-month low in September, and Asia ex-Japan data suggest pace has further to fall

Fri, 1 Oct 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The manufacturing exports data from the JPMorgan Global PMI, compiled by Markit, fell for the fifth month running in September to hit a 14-month low and thereby signal a sharp slowing in global trade from April’s record high. Data from the emerging Asian PMIs suggest that the global trade slowdown has further to run, but that the rate may settle prior to any contraction being seen.

Chinese manufacturing sector revives further in September, but faster growth brings surge in price pressures

Wed, 29 Sep 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI™ rose for the second month running in September, adding to signs that growth in the world’s second-largest economy is picking up again following a slowdown in the first half of the year. Improved growth of both output and new orders has been accompanied by a strong uptick in price pressures.

Eurozone recovery slows as renewed contraction is evident outside of French-German core

Thu, 23 Sep 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Flash Eurozone Composite Output Index fell to a seven-month low of 53.8 in September, dropping well below market expectations and down sharply from April’s post-recession peak. The data therefore indicate that euro area economic growth slowed sharply at the end of the third quarter, but that the rate of expansion will have remained strong for Q3 as a whole.

Polish output growth strengthened in August, following PMI’s signal

Fri, 17 Sep 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The latest HSBC PMI survey data, compiled by Markit, and official output figures covering Polish industry both pointed to further robust growth in August, adding weight to the view that the current hiatus in policy rates will end soon.

UK labour market data add to signs of weakening recovery

Wed, 15 Sep 2010 12:00:00 GMT

A somewhat mixed report from the Office for National Statistics showed a record rise in employment in the three months to July, but at the same time claimant count unemployment showed the first rise since January. Meanwhile, growth of permanent job placements by recruitment consultancies has dropped sharply since the spring, according to the KPMG/REC survey compiled by Markit.

Spanish firms absorb VAT rise amid weak final demand

Fri, 10 Sep 2010 12:00:00 GMT

In July 2010 the rate of VAT in Spain was raised from 16% to 18% as part of efforts to tackle a large public sector deficit. Fragile demand within the economy led to worries that firms would be unable to increase their tariffs, and would therefore have to absorb the increase in VAT. Anecdotal evidence from respondents to the two PMI™ surveys for Spain (covering manufacturing and services) suggests that so far this has indeed been the case.

Chinese economic growth picks up again, but so does inflation

Thu, 09 Sep 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI™ rebounded above the 50.0 ‘no change’ level in August, having signalled a deterioration in business conditions for the first time in 16 months in July. Output and new orders grew for the first time in three months, although export orders showed a slight fall for the third successive month.

South Korean and Taiwanese manufacturing exports point to weakening global trade

Thu, 09 Sep 2010 12:00:00 GMT

South Korea and particularly Taiwan are often considered to be bellwethers of global trade flows, being export-dominated economies which have led the global trade cycle during the financial crisis and the subsequent return to growth.

Spanish manufacturing production declines as PMI points to fragile demand

Thu, 09 Sep 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Latest manufacturing data from the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica (INE) indicated that production fell by 2.1% in the year to July. August PMI data compiled by Markit continued the weak trend. The strong relationship between the PMI and official data indicates that July’s weak official numbers are likely to be matched in August.

Slower growth of new orders adds to risk of US employment downturn

Wed, 08 Sep 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Mixed messages have been coming from the US in recent weeks. The ISM’s manufacturing PMI survey showed a surprise rise in August, but the non-manufacturing headline index dropped sharply to a seven-month low. Moreover, measured across both manufacturing and non-manufacturing, inflows of new business rose at the weakest rate for a year in August.

Renewed financial market worries could lead to increased national growth divergences within the Eurozone

Wed, 08 Sep 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone PMI™ Composite Output Index continued to point to strong growth in August, but diverging economic trends persisted. While solid economic recoveries are underway in France and Germany, this is failing to be matched in some of the weaker Eurozone economies such as Greece and Spain1. Renewed stress in the financial markets raise the risk of the divergence widening in coming months.

Output growth at global metal-using firms slowed further in August, but supply constraints drove copper and steel prices higher

Wed, 08 Sep 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Latest PMI data indicated a continued moderation in growth at worldwide metals-intensive manufacturers during August. Copper, aluminium and steel users signalled the weakest or joint-weakest rises in production for a year, while stocks of purchases were pared amid increasing caution about the outlook for new orders and output.

Job creation grinds to near-halt as global growth weakens

Tue, 07 Sep 2010 12:00:00 GMT

August’s PMIs showed a further easing in global growth, with a slowing evident in developed and emerging markets. The recovery is also failing to generate meaningful job creation, with global employment growth down to near-stagnation. Slower inflows of new orders suggest that employment may deteriorate further, especially in developed markets.

Manufacturers maintain stay at top of EU growth league as consumer-facing sectors slowed in August

Tue, 07 Sep 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The detailed sector analysis of PMI data across the European Union showed a further broad-based rise in activity in August. Although the best-performing manufacturing sectors gained momentum, growth slowed in many other areas during the month, notably in construction, finance and consumer-focused businesses.

France and Germany surge while Spain and Italy struggle

Fri, 03 Sep 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index dipped slightly in August, from 56.7 in July to 56.2. Despite the fall, the reading signals the ongoing resilience of the Eurozone economy and, although the rate of economic expansion is likely to slow from the 1.1% surge in gross domestic product (GDP) seen in Q2, growth is likely to remain close to the long-run trend rate.

UK growth slows sharply in Q3 with risk of further slowdown ahead

Fri, 03 Sep 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The weighted average of the output indices from the three UK PMIs fell further in August from February’s post-recession peak. The increase in output signalled was the weakest since June 2009. At 53.2, the average all-sector PMI Output Index for the first two months of Q3 is well below the average of 56.5 seen in H1. A based on PMI data up to August is signalling a GDP increase of 0.5% for Q3.

Russian GDP growth strengthened in Q2, but services faltered during August as heatwave threatened recovery in Q3

Fri, 03 Sep 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Preliminary official figures showed a strengthening Russian economic recovery in Q2, as signalled in advance by PMI data for manufacturing and services. But services PMI data for August signalled a heatwave-induced fall in activity. This contributed to composite PMI data indicating that the rate of economic growth stalled to 0.3% year-on-year in August.

Japanese growth momentum stalls in August

Fri, 03 Sep 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI™ fell from 52.8 in July to 50.1 in August – a decline exceeded in the survey’s nine-year history by only the final two months of 2008, when business conditions turned down in the wake of the Lehman collapse. The survey data not only signal a return to stagnation for manufacturing output, but also a flat GDP picture for Q3.

UK manufacturing expansion surge shows signs of fading

Wed, 01 Sep 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The latest Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI showed that output growth continued to slow from the fifteen-and-a- half year high recorded back in March. Comparisons with official manufacturing data suggest that the recent downturn in the PMI Output Index is consistent with output growth (measured on a quarterly basis) slowing from the peak of 2.6% seen in May to around 0.8%.

Eurozone manufacturing expansion slows in August, but shows ongoing resilience despite national variations. Growth exceeds average for the rest of the World.

Wed, 01 Sep 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The (final) Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Output Index fell in August and is now just over four points lower than the near-record peak seen in April. While the index suggests that the rate of expansion has slowed from the surging pace earlier in the year, the August reading remains consistent with still strong production growth of approximately 1.5% on a quarterly basis.

Spanish rebound fails to gain momentum in Q2

Fri, 13 Aug 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Q2 GDP data from the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica (INE) pointed to a second consecutive quarter of rising output in Spain. However, the rate of expansion of just 0.2% was only fractionally faster than the 0.1% growth recorded in Q1, and indicates that the rebound in the Spanish economy failed to gain much traction during the quarter. On a year-on-year basis, GDP fell by 0.2%.

Chinese PMIs signal marked GDP slowdown, with large and smaller companies affected

Mon, 09 Aug 2010 12:00:00 GMT

At 52.6, the HSBC China Composite PMI™ rose slightly on the 15-month low seen in June, but remained well below levels seen earlier in the year (the index was more than six points lower than the near-record high reached at the beginning of 2010). However, despite the fall from prior highs, the survey is consistent with annual GDP growth of around 9% at the start of 2010 Q3.

Falling or flying? Global PMI suggests global upturn is losing altitude

Mon, 09 Aug 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The monthly flow of data is being scrutinised to see if the global economy has taken off on a sustained recovery, or whether growth will splutter and stall once the initial momentum from stimuli wanes. The PMI survey data for July suggest that the upturn is losing altitude, with growth slipping for the third month running. However, strong national divergences are apparent.

Services continue to subdue employment growth in developed economies

Mon, 09 Aug 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The PMIs suggest that the global recovery continued to generate only disappointing rates of jobs creation in July, especially in developed economies. Economic growth rates are consequently likely to remain constrained by weak consumer spending until employment growth accelerates.

European consumer services show fresh impetus in July

Fri, 06 Aug 2010 12:00:00 GMT

EU PMI data covering detailed sectors showed a broad-based rise in activity in July, and suggest that growth rates are converging across industries. Having lagged well behind business-facing sectors and export-driven manufacturers last year, consumer-leaning areas started to record more solid rates of expansion.

UK recovery rate slows, with further easing likely

Wed, 04 Aug 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The UK economic recovery moved up a gear in the second quarter, but is already showing signs of being unable to sustain momentum as we move into the second half of the year. The first estimate of GDP showed the economy expanding 1.1% in Q2, the largest quarterly increase for four years. But the PMIs are now showing slower growth, which we expect to feed through to softer GDP numbers in H2 2010.

UK outlook darkens as confidence slumps

Wed, 04 Aug 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The Business Expectations Indices from the PMIs™ covering services and construction showed record monthly falls in June, reflecting companies’ concerns that the public sector spending cuts revealed in the Budget would hit growth. Moreover, any hopes that these falls were a knee-jerk reaction were dashed as the indices remained weak in July.

India’s growth heats up while China and Brazil cool off

Wed, 04 Aug 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Emerging markets are currently showing very different growth rates, with a buoyant pace in India contrasting with cooling economic growth in China and Brazil.

Manufacturing sector set to lead UK jobs growth during next 12 months

Mon, 02 Aug 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Private sector firms in the UK anticipate an increase in employment during the next 12 months, according to the summer 2010 Business Outlook Survey, conducted three times a year by Markit on behalf of KPMG. Although jobs are set to be created across both the manufacturing and service sectors, growth is forecast to be much stronger in the former.

Chinese cooling continues at start of Q3

Mon, 02 Aug 2010 12:00:00 GMT

At 49.4, the HSBC China Manufacturing PMI™ fell below the 50.0 mark that separates expansion from contraction for the first time in 16 months. The PMI has fallen 8.0 points from a series-record high of 57.4 at the start of the year (the survey began in 2004), suggesting that growth continued to lose further momentum at the start of Q3.

Chinese slowdown led by state-owned manufacturers

Mon, 02 Aug 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Throughout the first half of 2010, the slowdown in Chinese manufacturing output growth was broad-based across both private and public sector firms. However, July PMI data paints a more divergent picture. Output at state-owned enterprises fell solidly, dropping for the first time since April of last year. On the other hand, production at private sector enterprises was little changed since June.

Global Business Outlook: Confidence in global growth prospects remains largely intact in summer 2010

Mon, 02 Aug 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Companies worldwide continue to expect growth of activity during the next twelve months, with overall confidence little-changed since February. Manufacturers continue to hold a slightly more upbeat outlook than service providers, while the US is set to lead global expansion. BRIC firms remain upbeat, but sentiment has weakened since the previous survey amid expectations of slower growth in China.

Global outlook: business confidence improves amid signs of maturing recoveries

Mon, 02 Aug 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The summer 2010 Global Business Outlook survey, compiled by Markit for KPMG three times a year and based on 11,000 survey respondents, revealed growing optimism compared to earlier in the year. The survey also saw a more even pattern of confidence between emerging and developed countries.

Retail sales provide boost to Eurozone prospects

Thu, 29 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Eurozone Retail PMI™ signalled the largest monthly increase in sales revenues for over two years in July, adding to the recent flow of upbeat data. The improvement in the month-on-month sales measure in the Retail survey follows surprisingly strong July flash PMI numbers for Eurozone manufacturing and services, and signs of a marked upturn in construction activity during Q2.

UK austerity measures hit confidence, but long-term prospects improve

Mon, 26 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The majority of respondents to the HFI survey expect the measures announced in the Budget to hit their household finances over the coming year. However, they are less pessimistic about the impact on the UK economy as a whole, and the Budget is seen to have had a positive impact on the economy’s long-term growth prospects.

UK recovery accelerates from a trot to a sprint

Fri, 23 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The UK recovery finally found its legs in the second quarter, moving from a trot to a sprint. The first estimate of gross domestic product smashed expectations by showing the economy expanding at 1.1% – the largest quarterly increase for four years. Analysts were expecting 0.6% on average.

Eurozone: Surprise strong start to H2, but slower export growth and weaker business confidence dull the outlook

Thu, 22 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Flash Eurozone Composite Output Index rose from 56.0 in June to 56.7 in July. Although the index remained below April’s post-recession peak, the July level was slightly above the average reading seen in the second quarter (56.6) and confounded market expectations of a further slowing in the rate of expansion.

China: Fight against inflation led by state-owned enterprises

Tue, 20 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI™, produced using the same methodology used by Markit for PMIs in 20 countries, is signalling the steepest slowdown since the height of the financial crisis in late-2008. Weaker output growth is evident in both state-owned and private enterprises, though the former are leading the fight against inflation.

UK labour market recovery continues as unemployment falls, but surveys point to only modest improvements further ahead

Wed, 14 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The UK claimant count fell by 20,800 in June, while the Labour Force Survey of unemployment showed a decrease of 34,000 in the three months to May to 2.47m. The unemployment rate edged down to a four-month low of 7.8%. The KPMG/REC Report on Jobs, compiled by Markit, signalled that permanent staff placements increased in June, but at the slowest rate since January.

UK recession deeper than previously thought

Mon, 12 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Latest data from the Office for National Statistics show that the UK recession was deeper than previously thought. Gross domestic product (GDP) fell 6.4% rather than the prior estimate of 6.2%. The economic contraction began in 2008 Q2 and the recovery commenced 2009 Q4. However, the recovery remains weak, with GDP rising just 0.4% in the final quarter of last year and by 0.3% in 2010 Q1.

UK recovery still on track as household expenditure continues to rise in Q2.

Thu, 08 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The ‘Visa Europe: UK Expenditure Index’ is based on spending on all cards issued by Visa. After adjustment for card issuance, payment preference and inflation, the preliminary estimate of expenditure in Q2 on all Visa cards issued in the UK was for a 10.1% increase year-on-year, up from 8.4% in Q1.

EU sectors: consumer services weigh on recovery

Thu, 08 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The weakest broad EU industry over Q2 was consumer services, as had been the case in Q1. In June, the top-six sectors in terms of output growth were all classified as manufacturing. The strongest gains were in electronic & electrical equipment and health care equipment & services. The slowest increases were seen in household goods & home construction, media and financial services.

PMI surveys suggest subdued job creation will weaken global growth

Wed, 07 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The latest PMIs indicate that the global recovery continued to be characterised by disappointing jobs creation in June, suggesting that economies will remain fragile and dependent to a large extent upon global trade for growth.

Emerging Markets: Rate of economic growth slows as governments apply policy brakes

Wed, 07 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The stellar recovery in economic activity across most of the emerging world seen since the first half of 2009 has finally hit a bump in the road. The fall in the HSBC Emerging Markets Index (EMI) in the second quarter of 2010 represents a moderation in the pace of economic expansion across many of the emerging nations.

G4: Slower inflows of new orders and weakness in the service sector pose risks to growth after buoyant Q2

Tue, 06 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Earlier this year we reported how the global recovery was at a ‘critical juncture’, whereby ‘unless service sector growth can accelerate to offset the waning stimulus from the manufacturing inventory cycle, global economic growth may weaken in coming months.’ There is an increasing risk to growth in that the service sector is failing to take up the baton from manufacturing.

G4: PMIs highlight how policymakers remain in uncharted waters

Tue, 06 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT

With one member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee calling for higher interest rates at its latest meeting, we thought it would be interesting to look at what the PMIs are currently signalling for monetary policy. Prior to the financial crisis, the PMIs for the US, UK and Eurozone exhibited close relationships with central bank policy rates.

Robust UK growth signalled for Q2, but that may be as good as it gets

Mon, 05 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The UK PMI surveys have tended to be more buoyant than GDP data in the recovery, although we are seeing that initial weak GDP estimates are being subsequently revised up. PMI data are consistent with GDP growth of 0.7%-0.8% in Q2 (excluding retail and government), but also indicate that growth peaked in Q2 and will slow in Q3.

Growth slowdown signalled by China’s manufacturing PMI

Thu, 01 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT

China’s Manufacturing PMI fell to a 14-month low in June. Several sub-indices fell below 50, including output, new orders, new export orders, backlogs of work, the amount of goods factories bought for use in production, stocks of inputs, and both input and output prices. However, the sub-50 readings do not necessarily mean outright falls in comparable official data.

Global trade flows cool from record growth

Thu, 01 Jul 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The turnaround in trade since the depths of the global recession has been nothing short of remarkable. Just over a year ago – in May 2009 – global exports plunged by -27.6% on a year-on-year basis, yet latest official data show a record 27.6% rise. This resurgence has been a key feature of the recovery, but signs are emerging that expansion of international trade has peaked and is now slowing.

PMIs signal brisk economic growth in France during Q2

Wed, 23 Jun 2010 12:00:00 GMT

The latest Markit Flash France PMI data signalled that growth of French private sector output was maintained at one of the strongest rates in the past ten years in June. The Flash Composite Output Index – which covers output in the manufacturing and service sectors – remained unchanged at May’s six-month high of 60.1.

UK claimant count falls further as labour market recovery continues

Wed, 16 Jun 2010 12:00:00 GMT

UK claimant count falls further as labour market recovery continues

China's cooling continued in May, despite mixed messages from official data

Tue, 15 Jun 2010 12:00:00 GMT

China's cooling continued in May, despite mixed messages from official data.

Developed world manufacturing recoups 46% of output lost in recession

Mon, 14 Jun 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Developed world manufacturing recoups 46% of output lost in recession

Metals prices fall further amid slowing industrial consumption, but supply shortages persist

Fri, 11 Jun 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Metals prices fall further amid slowing industrial consumption, but supply shortages persist

PMI Employment Indices point to improved labour markets in May, but looming public sector job cuts darken the outlook

Thu, 10 Jun 2010 12:00:00 GMT

PMI Employment Indices point to improved labour markets in May, but looming public sector job cuts darken the outlook

EU sectors: All 22 sectors see ongoing growth in May, but rate slows in 14

Mon, 07 Jun 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Japanese manufacturing growth at post-recession high in May, but risk of ‘double-dip’ recession lingers as services weaken

Thu, 03 Jun 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Japanese manufacturing growth at post-recession high in May, but risk of ‘double-dip’ recession lingers as services weaken

Asian export boom shows signs of peaking

Tue, 01 Jun 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Asian export boom shows signs of peaking

Europe’s financial crisis hits economic growth in May

Fri, 21 May 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Copper prices fall as demand shows signs of peaking

Tue, 18 May 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Global PMI Employment Index signals highest rate of job creation for two years, led by steep rise in manufacturing employment

Thu, 13 May 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Spain crawls out of recession

Wed, 12 May 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Russia & Eastern Europe: Emerging European manufacturing recovery driven by exports, but continued to lag behind Asian growth

Wed, 12 May 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Official data continue to provide mixed signals on UK job market but Report on Jobs indicates recovery remains on track

Wed, 12 May 2010 12:00:00 GMT

EU sectors: Manufacturers drove EU output growth in April, as consumer services remained weak

Tue, 11 May 2010 12:00:00 GMT

March manufacturing rebound in UK echoes PMI data

Tue, 11 May 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Spring time heats up recovery in German industry

Tue, 11 May 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Ireland remained in recession at the end of 2009

Mon, 10 May 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Global PMI hits 34-month high in April. Stronger economic growth feeds through to the labour market, but also fuels rising price pressures.

Fri, 07 May 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Global: Manufacturing recovery gains momentum to reach record pace in the developed world, while speed slows in emerging markets

Wed, 05 May 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Greece: Manufacturing PMI ‘double-dip’ signals deepening economic woes

Mon, 03 May 2010 08:00:00 GMT

Spanish unemployment breaks through the 20% barrier

Fri, 30 Apr 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Markit / YouGov HFI: UK households signal stronger rise in property prices during April

Thu, 29 Apr 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Markit / YouGov HFI: UK household debt falls for third successive month in April

Thu, 29 Apr 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Markit / YouGov HFI: UK households’ inflation expectations hit series record high

Thu, 29 Apr 2010 12:00:00 GMT

UK recovery continues in Q1, but initial GDP estimates most likely understate growth

Fri, 23 Apr 2010 12:00:00 GMT

UK unemployment rose in February, but latest survey evidence indicates labour market has turned the corner

Thu, 22 Apr 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Commodities: Rising packaging prices highlight supply chain inflationary pressures

Tue, 20 Apr 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Commodities: Aluminium prices hit 19-month high as demand expectations rise

Tue, 20 Apr 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Commodities: Copper prices hit 20-month high, supported by Asian-led demand growth

Tue, 20 Apr 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Commodities: Steel prices pressures hit pre-Lehman levels

Tue, 20 Apr 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Faster-than-expected rise in Chinese Q1 GDP signposted in advance by PMI data

Mon, 19 Apr 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Broad-based firming in growth across EU sectors in March, with survey-record rise in basic materials output

Tue, 13 Apr 2010 12:00:00 GMT

HSBC EMI: Emerging markets continued to lead global economic recovery in Q1

Mon, 12 Apr 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Global input price inflation hits one-and-a-half year high

Fri, 09 Apr 2010 12:00:00 GMT

UK Q1 GDP boosted by output, investment and inventories

Wed, 07 Apr 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Global recovery moved up a gear in March, rounding off the strongest quarter for almost three years

Wed, 07 Apr 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Global commodities: Aluminium prices rise above level consistent with current demand and supply fundamentals

Tue, 23 Mar 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Global commodities: Steel prices set to rise as demand strengthens among manufacturers

Tue, 23 Mar 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Global commodities: Strong Chinese demand drives copper prices higher, but speculative factors also provide support

Tue, 23 Mar 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Markit / YouGov HFI: Perceptions of current and future inflation remain elevated

Fri, 19 Mar 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Markit / YouGov HFI: Households indicate only modest rise in property values during March

Fri, 19 Mar 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Markit / YouGov HFI: Demand for credit rises, but availability worsens

Fri, 19 Mar 2010 12:00:00 GMT

UK unemployment shows largest fall since 1997 as demand for staff picks up. Business surveys point to improved job market outlook.

Wed, 17 Mar 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Asian export boom reaches new peak in February

Thu, 11 Mar 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Global: Weaker consumer demand offsetting supply-chain inflation pressures

Thu, 11 Mar 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Manufacturers across Eastern Europe recovering well in 2010, but Russian and Turkish producers continue to struggle

Wed, 10 Mar 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Global PMI picks up in February to signal ongoing recovery in Q1, but growth remains biased towards manufacturing

Wed, 10 Mar 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone: Where now for the periphery?

Mon, 08 Mar 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Stabilisation of labour markets signalled as Global PMI Employment Index hits 21-month high

Mon, 08 Mar 2010 12:00:00 GMT

EU sectors: Basic materials headed sector growth table in February, while financials enjoyed strongest expansion since July 2007

Fri, 05 Mar 2010 12:00:00 GMT

UK economic growth gains momentum in Q1 despite adverse weather

Wed, 03 Mar 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone: Productivity and pricing behaviour hold insights into national divergences

Mon, 01 Mar 2010 12:00:00 GMT

UK GDP revised up

Fri, 26 Feb 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Markit/YouGov HFI: UK households report overall reduction in debt during February

Mon, 22 Feb 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Markit/YouGov HFI: Perceptions of current inflation hit record high

Mon, 22 Feb 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Markit/YouGov HFI: Job security fears highlight fragility of labour market

Mon, 22 Feb 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Markit/YouGov HFI: Further perceived rise in house prices during February

Mon, 22 Feb 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Mixed official data highlight fragility of UK job market recovery

Wed, 17 Feb 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Japanese PMI data point to smoother recovery trend than confusing GDP data

Tue, 16 Feb 2010 12:00:00 GMT

UK manufacturing production surges higher in December, tracking PMI

Fri, 12 Feb 2010 12:00:00 GMT

German PMI shows that the recovery is still on track, despite bumpy GDP data

Fri, 12 Feb 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Decline in official Italian GDP suggests ‘payback’ from strong Q3 data

Fri, 12 Feb 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone GDP grew just 0.1% in Q4 2009

Fri, 12 Feb 2010 12:00:00 GMT

French recovery gathered momentum in Q4

Fri, 12 Feb 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Global consumer prices spike higher, with supply-chain delays fuelling further price pressures in January

Thu, 11 Feb 2010 12:00:00 GMT

China begins fine-tuning monetary policy amid overheating concerns

Thu, 11 Feb 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Worldwide job losses at 17-month low in January, boosted by manufacturing recruitment

Thu, 11 Feb 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Spain still in recession at the end of 2009

Thu, 11 Feb 2010 12:00:00 GMT

EU sectors: Autos output rose sharply as other sectors hit by poor weather

Fri, 05 Feb 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Global economy: Manufacturing surges, service sector stumbles

Wed, 03 Feb 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Exports surge helps drive UK manufacturing growth to 15-year peak

Mon, 01 Feb 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone manufacturing recovery masks widening two-tier economy

Mon, 01 Feb 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Markit/YouGov HFI: UK VAT rise leads to survey record inflation perceptions

Fri, 22 Jan 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Markit/YouGov HFI: Household debt levels in the UK rise for second successive month

Fri, 22 Jan 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Markit/YouGov HFI: Recovery of UK housing market remains intact in January

Fri, 22 Jan 2010 12:00:00 GMT

China posts double-digit GDP growth in Q4

Thu, 21 Jan 2010 12:00:00 GMT

UK unemployment falls for first time in 18 months

Thu, 21 Jan 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Global input cost inflation rose in December, pointing to short-term inflation spike

Thu, 14 Jan 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Japan shows heightened risk of double-dip recession

Thu, 14 Jan 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Global job losses ease towards year-end, raising hopes for sustainable recovery

Thu, 14 Jan 2010 12:00:00 GMT

UK ends 2009 on a strong note

Wed, 13 Jan 2010 12:00:00 GMT

EU sectors: Consumer Goods led EU industry growth table in December

Fri, 08 Jan 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Western Europe: Large companies lead job cutting despite seeing output surge higher

Thu, 07 Jan 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Emerging market growth accelerates in Q4

Thu, 07 Jan 2010 12:00:00 GMT

UK PMI data signal strong end to 2009, but outlook for 2010 remains cloudy

Wed, 06 Jan 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Global growth rebound lacks conviction at year-end

Wed, 06 Jan 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Polish PMI continues to point to recovery of manufacturing sector

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 12:00:00 GMT

Spanish manufacturers get left behind in Eurozone recovery

Mon, 04 Jan 2010 12:00:00 GMT

UK: Claimant count drop is latest sign of improving job market

Wed, 16 Dec 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Spanish consumer prices rose in November due to energy base effects

Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Deflationary pressures mount in Japan, but elsewhere companies seek to offset rising costs

Thu, 10 Dec 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Japan slashes GDP estimate for Q3

Thu, 10 Dec 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Global markets rally as risk appetite returns, but concerns grow regarding government finances

Thu, 10 Dec 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Earlier than anticipated turnaround in worldwide labour markets, but recovery likely to be slow

Wed, 9 Dec 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Spanish unemployment rate twice the Eurozone average

Tue, 8 Dec 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Sectors: Manufacturers head EU productivity table

Mon, 7 Dec 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Global business outlook improves, led by BRICs and US

Fri, 4 Dec 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK PMI data signal continuation of robust economic expansion in November

Thu, 3 Dec 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Global GDP growth shows further signs of peaking

Thu, 3 Dec 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Polish GDP growth stronger than expected in Q3, as signalled by PMI data

Wed, 2 Dec 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone manufacturing recovery still led by France and Germany

Tue, 1 Dec 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Manufacturing growth in Asia falls further from peak in November, but national divergences widen

Tue, 1 Dec 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK manufacturing upturn reflects rising consumer spending and restocking, but business investment remains subdued

Tue, 1 Dec 2009 12:00:00 GMT

German corporate rebound contrasts with weak retail and consumer spending

Fri, 27 Nov 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone growth accelerates in November, but recovery looks fragile

Mon, 23 Nov 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Markit/YouGov HFI: Inflation expectations continued to rise

Mon, 23 Nov 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Markit/YouGov HFI: Housing market shows further recovery in November

Mon, 23 Nov 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Markit/YouGov HFI: Future income expectations rise and job security fears ease

Mon, 23 Nov 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Markit/YouGov HFI: Demand for unsecured credit increased in November

Mon, 23 Nov 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Spain remains mired in recession

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Polish industrial output better than expected in October

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Russian industrial contraction gathered pace in October, following PMI’s decline

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Japan's economy expanded at the strongest rate for two years in Q3

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Large enterprises lead Eurozone out of recession

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone emerges from recession in Q3

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Supply chain delays boost global commodity prices

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Global GDP growth picked up in October, but signs appear of peak in rate of expansion

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Broad trend remains towards stabilisation in global labour markets, despite latest disappointment in US payrolls

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Smallest rise in UK unemployment for 16 months and net gain in jobs suggests labour market is turning

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:00:00 GMT

EU sectors: Growth returns to all major industry groups in October

Fri, 6 Nov 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Eastern European recovery suffers lack of momentum

Thu, 5 Nov 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK: services provides the key to survey and GDP divergence in Q3

Wed, 4 Nov 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Large companies lead UK upturn, but smaller firms also see return to growth

Wed, 4 Nov 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK manufacturing entered Q4 on stronger-than-expected footing

Mon, 2 Nov 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Polish PMI signalled robust industrial recovery in Q3

Tue, 20 Oct 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Overall debt levels in UK households fall for a second successive month, despite continued rise in demand for unsecured lending

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK households perceived house prices to have risen again in October, and retained positive outlook for year ahead

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Higher workplace activity boosts UK households' take-home pay

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK households perceived price inflation to have eased further, although inflation expectations remained strong

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Global economic forecasts revised up

Mon, 12 Oct 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK marketing budgets fall again in Q3, but rate of decline eases sharply

Mon, 12 Oct 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Developed world employment may stabilise by year end, but high unemployment looks set to persist

Sat, 10 Oct 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI signals rise in industrial production, backed up by official data

Fri, 9 Oct 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Global pipeline inflationary pressures growing

Fri, 9 Oct 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Credit markets volatile amid mixed economic data, but PMIs raise hopes for corporate earnings

Thu, 8 Oct 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Global GDP rebound remained on track in Q3

Wed, 7 Oct 2009 12:00:00 GMT

EU sectors: Basic materials and consumer goods lead manufacturing upturn, while financial services and healthcare drive services growth

Wed, 7 Oct 2009 12:00:00 GMT

EU financial sector provides clues to future trends in the wider economy

Wed, 7 Oct 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Basic materials remained fastest growing EU industry group in September

Wed, 7 Oct 2009 12:00:00 GMT

EU autos & parts sector reports fastest growth of output for one-and-a-half years

Wed, 7 Oct 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Emerging markets set to lead global economic recovery, says HSBC index

Tue, 6 Oct 2009 12:00:00 GMT

PMI data indicate that UK recession ended in Q3

Mon, 5 Oct 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone Flash PMI signals further gain in momentum during Q3 and into Q4, but upturn characterized by cost cutting and price discounting

Wed, 23 Sep 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Rise in activity at work supports UK household income levels

Fri, 18 Sep 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK households perceive property price rise in September and outlook for year ahead brightens

Fri, 18 Sep 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK households’ demand for secured debt rises in September, although availability and conditions of credit continued to tighten

Fri, 18 Sep 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Polish manufacturing PMI’s rise confirmed by official data

Thu, 17 Sep 2009 12:00:00 GMT

French industrial production continued to grow in July

Fri, 11 Sep 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Portraits of a global recession and recovery

Fri, 11 Sep 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Global labour market shows early turning point

Wed, 09 Sep 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Global manufacturing input prices rise in August, led by US and China

Wed, 09 Sep 2009 12:00:00 GMT

EU sectors: Rebound became more broad-based in August

Mon, 07 Sep 2009 12:00:00 GMT

EU basic materials industry showed strong rise in output

Mon, 07 Sep 2009 12:00:00 GMT

EU financial sector activity fell in August, led by banks

Mon, 07 Sep 2009 12:00:00 GMT

EU autos production rose further in August

Mon, 07 Sep 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Global GDP forecasts cautiously revised up

Mon, 07 Sep 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Global economy set to return to growth in Q3

Fri, 04 Sep 2009 12:00:00 GMT

New PMI survey showed fastest expansion of Indian service sector output for nearly a year in August

Thu, 03 Sep 2009 12:00:00 GMT

All-Sector UK PMI hits 18-month high; increases possibility of GDP growth in Q3

Thu, 03 Sep 2009 12:00:00 GMT

New PMI survey points to strong growth of China’s private sector

Thu, 03 Sep 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Polish economic growth maintained in Q2, good prospects for Q3

Tue, 01 Sep 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Global manufacturing rebound gathers pace in August, with further expansion likely

Tue, 01 Sep 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK household finances weaken amid falling incomes and rising debt, but outlook continues to improve

Fri, 21 Aug 2009 12:00:00 GMT

EU basic materials industry showed marked rebound in July

Wed, 19 Aug 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Russia: pace of industrial decline eased in July

Tue, 18 Aug 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Bewildering global GDP trends

Mon, 17 Aug 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Record annual drop in Czech GDP during Q2, but PMI signals impending recovery

Fri, 14 Aug 2009 12:00:00 GMT

German manufacturing revival indicated in advance by PMI data

Tue, 11 Aug 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Marked national variations in credit conditions

Tue, 11 Aug 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Optimism builds among European and emerging market manufacturers

Mon, 10 Aug 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Global employment falls sharply again in July, but pace of job losses eases

Mon, 10 Aug 2009 12:00:00 GMT

China and Japan see manufacturing surge

Mon, 10 Aug 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Ten EU sectors showed activity growth in July

Fri, 07 Aug 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Global economy remains on recovery trend

Wed, 05 Aug 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Global supply chain price pressures on the rise

Tue, 04 Aug 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Rebound in PMI data raise hopes for upturns in consumer spending and business investment within Eurozone manufacturing

Mon, 03 Aug 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK recession continued in Q2, but rate of decline slowed

Fri, 24 Jul 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Polish production figures follow signal provided by PMI data

Tue, 21 Jul 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK HFI survey shows that household demand for unsecured loans increased again, but credit availability and conditions worsened

Fri, 17 Jul 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK house prices expected to rise over coming year

Fri, 17 Jul 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Job insecurity and falling incomes remain key worries for UK households

Fri, 17 Jul 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK households recorded further rise in average prices in July. Higher rates of inflation foretold.

Fri, 17 Jul 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Growth of Chinese GDP accelerated in Q2

Thu, 16 Jul 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Record rise in UK unemployment, but evidence from recruitment sector suggests pace of job losses may be set to ease

Wed, 15 Jul 2009 12:00:00 GMT

World-wide manufacturing prices fall at sharply reduced pace

Thu, 09 Jul 2009 12:00:00 GMT

EU Autos sector boosted by scrapping incentives

Wed, 08 Jul 2009 12:00:00 GMT

EU sectors: Winners and losers

Wed, 08 Jul 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Global economy moved closer to recovery in Q2 2009

Tue, 07 Jul 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Worldwide employment showed smallest fall for eight months in June

Tue, 07 Jul 2009 12:00:00 GMT

All-Sector UK PMI rises further above 50.0 no-change level in June, well above Eurozone neighbours

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Eastern European manufacturing shows signs of stabilising

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK construction PMI data add to housing market recovery hopes, but also highlight fragility of market

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:00:00 GMT

PMI data are consistent with an easing in Eurozone manufacturing output contraction as we move into Q3, but member states see different trends

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:00:00 GMT

PMI signals rise in UK manufacturing output in June, contrasting with further falls in all main Eurozone countries

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:00:00 GMT

World-wide improvements in manufacturing PMIs

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Upturn in Japanese manufacturing signalled in advance by PMI data

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Brazil entered recession in Q1, tracking PMI data

Thu, 18 Jun 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Russian PMIs provide some positive signs amid bleak official data

Wed, 17 Jun 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK unemployment increasing at slower pace, in line with survey data

Wed, 17 Jun 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Both PMI and official data show Japanese manufacturing output falling at a slower rate as improvement in export demand gathers momentum

Thu, 11 Jun 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Global: attention shifts from spotting the turning point to mapping the recovery

Thu, 11 Jun 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Rise in official UK manufacturing output data supports PMI message of possible GDP increase in Q2. Larger companies lead the upturn.

Thu, 11 Jun 2009 12:00:00 GMT

China's manufacturing sector expands amid evidence of 'decoupling'

Wed, 10 Jun 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Global: PMIs signalling turning point in global economic cycle, with emerging Asia leading upturn

Wed, 10 Jun 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Germany: PMIs suggest we shouldn’t be too disheartened by April’s industrial production figures

Wed, 10 Jun 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Manufacturing downturn easing in France

Wed, 10 Jun 2009 12:00:00 GMT

EU sector PMIs show further broad-based improvement

Mon, 08 Jun 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK All-Sector PMI signals growth for first time in 14 months in May

Wed, 03 Jun 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Record rise in Construction PMI Housing Index in May points to turning point in UK housing market

Tue, 02 Jun 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Germany: signs that the worst of the recession could be over

Thu, 21 May 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone: comparing PMI and official economic growth data

Thu, 21 May 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Record GDP drop re-affirms severity of Japan’s recession

Wed, 20 May 2009 12:00:00 GMT

EU/BRIC: demand for credit finance rises, but availability and terms worsen

Mon, 18 May 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Unprecedented contraction of Eurozone economy during Q1

Fri, 15 May 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Global: supplier delivery times hold key to future price trends

Fri, 15 May 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Global recession intensified in Q1

Fri, 15 May 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Italian GDP contracted at record pace in Q1

Fri, 15 May 2009 12:00:00 GMT

French economy contracted 1.2% q/q in Q1

Fri, 15 May 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Job shedding may have peaked in the US and UK, but process remains more gradual in the Eurozone

Thu, 14 May 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Spanish recession intensified in Q1

Thu, 14 May 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone manufacturing saw record contraction of output in February

Thu, 14 May 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Sentiment improves among service providers in EU and BRIC

Wed, 13 May 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Czech PMI accurately signalled weaker March fall in output

Tue, 12 May 2009 12:00:00 GMT

EU sector PMIs: widespread softening of recession in April

Fri, 08 May 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Global manufacturing sees record easing in rate of contraction in April

Wed, 06 May 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Global manufacturing sees record easing in rate of contraction in April

Spanish unemployment breaks through the 4m barrier

Sun, 24 Apr 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Spanish unemployment breaks through the 4m barrier

UK labour market: Jobless total climbs to twelve-year high

Sat, 23 Apr 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK labour market: Jobless total climbs to twelve-year high

Poland: PMI correctly anticipated the easing in the rate of contraction in March

Tue, 21 Apr 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Poland: PMI correctly anticipated the easing in the rate of contraction in March

US industrial output fell 1.5% in March to cap dismal Q1

Mon, 20 Apr 2009 12:00:00 GMT

US industrial output fell 1.5% in March to cap dismal Q1

Japan: Manufacturing PMI vs BoJ Tankan

Mon, 20 Apr 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Japan: Manufacturing PMI vs BoJ Tankan

Russian PMI data point to slower manufacturing decline in March

Sat, 18 Apr 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Russian PMI data point to slower manufacturing decline in March

Eurozone industrial production fell at fastest annual rate in EMU history

Thu, 16 Apr 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone industrial production fell at fastest annual rate in EMU history

Chinese economy expanded at slowest pace since quarterly GDP were first released in 1992

Thu, 16 Apr 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Chinese economy expanded at slowest pace since quarterly GDP were first released in 1992

Czech official output remained bleak but PMI suggests worst is over

Thu, 16 Apr 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Czech official output remained bleak but PMI suggests worst is over

Turkey: record plunge in February output, but PMI suggests worst is over

Thu, 9 Apr 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Turkey: record plunge in February output, but PMI suggests worst is over

Labour market weakness will delay any return to growth for developed economies

Wed, 8 Apr 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Labour market weakness will delay any return to growth for developed economies

EU sector PMIs show broad-based easing of downturn in March

Wed, 8 Apr 2009 12:00:00 GMT

EU sector PMIs show broad-based easing of downturn in March

Record job losses as global recession continued in March

Fri, 3 Apr 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Record job losses as global recession continued in March

Slowest contraction of UK services economy since September 2008, but job shedding accelerates to new record

Fri, 3 Apr 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Slowest contraction of services economy since September 2008, but job shedding accelerates to new record

PMIs point to broad-based easing in Global manufacturing downturn

Wed, 1 Apr 2009 12:00:00 GMT

PMIs point to broad-based easing in Global manufacturing downturn

UK unemployment hits two million, set to rise much further

Thu, 19 Mar 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK unemployment hits two million, set to rise much further

Russian industrial production continued to fall sharply

Wed, 18 Mar 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Russian industrial production continued to fall sharply

German industrial production suffers record drop in January

Mon, 16 Mar 2009 12:00:00 GMT

German industrial production suffers record drop in January

Eurozone retail sales worse than expected in January

Fri, 13 Mar 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone retail sales worse than expected in January

Brazil’s immunity to the global economic crisis ceases, as GDP drops by the greatest extent since the current series began in 1996

Thu, 12 Mar 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Brazil’s immunity to the global economic crisis ceases, as GDP drops by the greatest extent since the current series began in 1996

Turkish industrial production collapsed in January

Thu, 12 Mar 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Turkish industrial production collapsed in January

Official data indicated that severity of recession in UK manufacturing sector deepened in January, and the PMI suggests weakness will persist

Tue, 10 Mar 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Official data indicated that severity of recession in UK manufacturing sector deepened in January, and the PMI suggests weakness will persist

Sector data highlight breadth of EU downturn

Mon, 9 Mar 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Sector data highlight breadth of EU downturn

Eurozone may see sharper contraction than the UK in 2009

Fri, 6 Mar 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone may see sharper contraction than the UK in 2009

Signs of returning confidence appear

Fri, 6 Mar 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Signs of returning confidence appear

Large companies lead jobs downturn in UK

Wed, 4 Mar 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Large companies lead jobs downturn in UK

Collapse in export demand fuels unprecedented drop in manufacturing output, adding to Japan’s recession woes in January

Mon, 2 Mar 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Collapse in export demand fuels unprecedented drop in manufacturing output, adding to Japan’s recession woes in January

Japan on the verge of deflation

Mon, 2 Mar 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Japan on the verge of deflation

Flash Eurozone PMI data point to worsening GDP and employment trends in February

Fri, 20 Feb 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Flash Eurozone PMI data point to worsening GDP and employment trends in February

Eastern European manufacturing has further to fall

Fri, 20 Feb 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Eastern European manufacturing has further to fall

Record fall in Russian industrial production in January prompts alarming downward revision to 2009 GDP forecast

Wed, 18 Feb 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Record fall in Russian industrial production in January prompts alarming downward revision to 2009 GDP forecast

Italian IP slumped at fastest pace on record during December

Mon, 16 Feb 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Italian IP slumped at fastest pace on record during December

Italian economy shrank at fastest pace in at least 28 years during Q4

Mon, 16 Feb 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Italian economy shrank at fastest pace in at least 28 years during Q4

French GDP fell at fastest pace for at least 30 years in 2008 Q4

Mon, 16 Feb 2009 12:00:00 GMT

French GDP fell at fastest pace for at least 30 years in 2008 Q4

Markit credit survey shows rising demand for credit at manufacturers in most European and key emerging markets

Mon, 16 Feb 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Markit credit survey shows rising demand for credit at manufacturers in most European and key emerging markets

Recession in Germany deepens as GDP contracts at record rate in Q4

Mon, 16 Feb 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Recession in Germany deepens as GDP contracts at record rate in Q4

Czech industrial production continued to fall at double-digit pace in December, as signalled by PMI data

Mon, 16 Feb 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Czech industrial production continued to fall at double-digit pace in December, as signalled by PMI data

Japan’s economy shrank at the fastest pace in over three decades in Q4

Mon, 16 Feb 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Japan’s economy shrank at the fastest pace in over three decades in Q4

Japanese service sector economy contracted at sharpest pace in over a decade, in line with newly-launched PMI data

Mon, 16 Feb 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Japanese service sector economy contracted at sharpest pace in over a decade, in line with newly-launched PMI data

Russian growth faltered in Q4; PMI-based GDP Indicator signalling contraction at start of 2009

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Russian growth faltered in Q4; PMI-based GDP Indicator signalling contraction at start of 2009

Eurozone economy contracted sharply in Q4

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone economy contracted sharply in Q4

Spanish recession confirmed in Q4

Thu, 12 Feb 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Spanish recession confirmed in Q4

Eurozone industrial production falls at double-digit rate in December

Thu, 12 Feb 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone industrial production falls at double-digit rate in December

French industrial production fell further in December, but PMI data hint at stabilisation in pace of decline at the start of 2009

Wed, 11 Feb 2009 12:00:00 GMT

French industrial production fell further in December, but PMI data hint at stabilisation in pace of decline at the start of 2009

UK unemployment jumps to 1.97 million, set to rise further

Wed, 11 Feb 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK unemployment jumps to 1.97 million, set to rise further

PMIs signal need for 50bp cut in Eurozone rates in March

Thu, 05 Feb 2009 12:00:00 GMT

PMIs signal need for 50bp cut in Eurozone rates in March

No surprise in rate decision, but BoE likely to make greater use of unorthodox policy going forward

Thu, 05 Feb 2009 12:00:00 GMT

No surprise in rate decision, but BoE likely to make greater use of unorthodox policy going forward

New services PMI points to broad-based deepening of Japanese recession

Wed, 04 Feb 2009 12:00:00 GMT

New services PMI points to broad-based deepening of Japanese recession

January PMI data point to unprecedented downturn in Japanese manufacturing

Mon, 02 Feb 2009 12:00:00 GMT

January PMI data point to unprecedented downturn in Japanese manufacturing

PMI data point towards official contraction of UK construction sector in Q4

Tue, 27 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

PMI data point towards official contraction of UK construction sector in Q4

Eurozone unemployment rising sharply

Tue, 27 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone unemployment rising sharply

Chinese economy expanded at weakest pace for seven years in Q4

Fri, 23 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Chinese economy expanded at weakest pace for seven years in Q4

UK confirmed in recession as breakdown of GDP data chimes with PMI trends

Fri, 23 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK confirmed in recession as breakdown of GDP data chimes with PMI trends

UK unemployment approaches 2 million as job market continues to weaken

Thu, 22 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK unemployment approaches 2 million as job market continues to weaken

PMI data indicate that plunge in German PPI will continue in early-2009

Thu, 22 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

PMI data indicate that plunge in German PPI will continue in early-2009

Polish industrial output fell sharply in December, as flagged ahead by PMI

Wed, 21 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Polish industrial output fell sharply in December, as flagged ahead by PMI

Sharp drop in Italian new orders in line with manufacturing PMI data

Wed, 21 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Sharp drop in Italian new orders in line with manufacturing PMI data

The shadow of deflation looms heavy over Japan

Tue, 20 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

The shadow of deflation looms heavy over Japan

Turkish industrial production dropped sharply in line with weak PMI numbers

Mon, 19 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Turkish industrial production dropped sharply in line with weak PMI numbers

Spanish CDS spread widens as economy suffers

Fri, 16 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Spanish CDS spread widens as economy suffers

Japan’s exports plunged at record pace in November, as signposted by PMI

Thu, 15 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Japan’s exports plunged at record pace in November, as signposted by PMI

PMIs suggest euro area industrial decline approaching double-digits in December

Thu, 15 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

PMIs suggest euro area industrial decline approaching double-digits in December

Rate cut to support economy in 2009, but ECB staff projections still at risk

Thu, 15 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Rate cut to support economy in 2009, but ECB staff projections still at risk

Preliminary German GDP figures chime with extreme weakness shown by PMIs

Wed, 14 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Preliminary German GDP figures chime with extreme weakness shown by PMIs

Official data confirm steepest annual decline in industrial production since at least 1990, but PMI

Wed, 14 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Official data confirm steepest annual decline in industrial production since at least 1990, but PMI suggests worse is yet to come

German industrial performance edges closer to worst on record in December

Tue, 13 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

German industrial performance edges closer to worst on record in December

PMI data signal deflation of Spanish producer prices

Tue, 13 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

PMI data signal deflation of Spanish producer prices

Japanese industrial production plummeted in November

Tue, 13 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Japanese industrial production plummeted in November

Slump in French industrial production continued in November

Mon, 12 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Slump in French industrial production continued in November

Weak global economic conditions behind plunge in German exports

Fri, 9 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Weak global economic conditions behind plunge in German exports

Spanish industrial production plunges in line with PMI data

Fri, 9 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Spanish industrial production plunges in line with PMI data

Drop in UK manufacturing production in line with PMI data

Fri, 9 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Drop in UK manufacturing production in line with PMI data

Automobiles & Parts suffer steepest downturn of all EU sectors in December

Thu, 8 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

Automobiles & Parts suffer steepest downturn of all EU sectors in December

UK interest rates cut to record low, justified by weak data

Thu, 8 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

UK interest rates cut to record low, justified by weak data

PMI data point to deepening UK recession. Outlook for 2009 extremely bleak

Thu, 8 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

PMI data point to deepening UK recession. Outlook for 2009 extremely bleak

PMIs show contraction of Russian economy in December (pdf)

Thu, 01 Jan 2009 12:00:00 GMT

PMIs show contraction of Russian economy in December (pdf)