Markit Economics

Output growth at global steel-users eases to five-month low

Fri, 17 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Worldwide steel-using firms reported a weaker expansion of output during April. The latest data from Markit showed that production at intensive users of steel rose at the slowest pace in five months, with growth moderating from the two-year high registered in March.

Japan surges out of recession

Thu, 16 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Official data confirmed the upbeat message from recent PMI surveys, indicating that Japan has surged out of recession. Gross domestic product grew 0.9% in the first quarter, its fastest pace of expansion for a year. The economy also grew 0.3% in the final quarter of last year, revised up from a flat picture.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [20-24 May]: Flash US, China and eurozone PMIs

Thu, 16 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The flash PMIs from Markit will provide guidance on the health of the world’s three largest economies in May. Recent PMI data have indicated that global manufacturing has moved down a gear, almost stagnating in April. A weakening of global trade will affect all major nations, meaning trends in China, the US and the eurozone will have widespread implications for policymakers around the world.

France returns to recession and Germany’s growth disappoints

Wed, 15 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The eurozone's two largest economies fared worse than expected at the start of the year, piling further pressure on the ECB to act soon to do more to reinvigorate growth.

UK labour market shows signs of stalling amid mixed official data

Wed, 15 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

A tangled web of official data once again sent mixed messages about the health of the UK economy. However, most of the disappointments came from the more backward-looking data, while the more forward-looking and up-to-date statistics add to growing signs that the UK economy is enjoying a modest growth upturn after the downturn seen late last year.

Eurozone stuck in recession at start of 2013

Wed, 15 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The eurozone economy contracted for the sixth successive quarter at the start of 2013, with gross domestic product declining 0.2% in the three months to March. The economy has now shrunk 1.5% since peaking in the third quarter of 2011 in a double-dip recession that leaves the economy still 3.4% lower than its pre-crisis peak.

Canadian manufacturing shipments fall, but PMI suggests brighter picture for April

Wed, 15 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Canadian manufacturing shipments fell 0.3% in March, down to $49.5bn. Although the contraction was only marginal, it was a marked contrast to the revised 2.8% growth in February, the strongest for over one-and-a-half years.

Eurozone industrial production jumps 1.0% in March

Tue, 14 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone industrial production rose surprisingly strongly in March, but divergent trends within the region and recent weak business surveys suggests there is scant evidence to suggest that the region is staging any sort of sustained industrial-led recovery.

Two decades of manufacturing compared

Tue, 14 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Comparisons of developed world manufacturing economies, which includes data up to March 2013 for the US, UK, Japan, the eurozone and the individual big-four euro countries, show hugely divergent fortunes over the past 20 years.

US retail sales rise in April, but upturn fails to revive weak underlying trend

Mon, 13 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The US Fed will be reassured by better than expected sales growth in April, but will be cautious about reading too much into one month's data. Instead, an ongoing weakening in the trend rate of sales growth will most likely encourage policymakers to refrain from easing back on policy stimulus any time soon and await more data. The sales upturn will nonetheless ensure talk of scaling back the stimulus remains firmly on the table.

UK exports surge on weaker sterling

Fri, 10 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

UK trade data add to signs that the manufacturing sector is finding its feet again, buoyed by a rise in exports of goods, which jumped almost 5% in March.

UK industrial sector shows reassuring growth in March

Thu, 09 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

UK factories stepped up a gear in March, boosting production for a second successive month. With surveys indicating that growth gained further momentum at the start of the second quarter, the encouraging data reduce the likelihood of policymakers seeing any immediate need to add more stimulus to the economy.

Bank of England sees no need for further stimulus

Thu, 09 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep policy unchanged at its May meeting, with interest rates held at 0.5% and its asset purchase programme steady at £375bn. With the economic data flow improving in recent weeks, no change is likely at its June meeting either, but new initiatives may follow the appointment of Mark Carney as new Bank governor in July.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [13-17 May]: Japanese and eurozone GDP data

Thu, 09 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The week sees a vast amount of data released, including euro area and Japanese GDP, updates on retail and industrial growth in China, inflation for the US, plus the latest UK labour market statistics and the Bank of England’s Inflation Report.

Emerging market growth slows in April

Wed, 08 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The HSBC Emerging Markets Index (EMI), a monthly indicator derived from the PMI surveys, fell to 51.3 in April, from March’s 52.5. That signalled a slowdown in economic growth in global emerging markets, to the weakest for over a year-and-a-half.

Chinese trade data show softening trend despite uplift in April

Wed, 08 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

China’s official data showed an upturn in growth of both imports and exports in April, but the volatile data disguise a trend of slowing growth which corresponds with the message from business surveys.

German industry enjoys strong growth in March, but upturn may prove short-lived

Wed, 08 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Government data showed an improved performance of the German industrial sector in March, led by a strong upturn in manufacturing. However, the official data look set to weaken again, just as the survey data have also fallen back after showing promising signs of growth earlier in the year.

Subdued start to Q2 for UK consumer spending

Tue, 07 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Consumer spending fell in April, contrasting with marked growth seen in each of the previous three months. The Visa Europe: UK Expenditure Index, which is derived from card spending data, adjusted for factors such as changes in card usage and inflation, signaled a 2.5% drop in spending compared to March, the largest monthly decline since last October.

PMIs signal global economic slowdown at start of second quarter

Tue, 07 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The JPMorgan Global PMI, compiled by Markit, fell from 53.0 in March to 51.9 in April, indicating the weakest pace of worldwide economic growth for six months. Rates of expansion deteriorated in both the manufacturing and service sectors, hitting four- and ten-month lows respectively.

Japan: Policy rewarded as PMIs signal ongoing robust growth and rising price pressures

Tue, 07 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit/JMMA Japan PMI surveys point to an ongoing growth spurt in the Japanese economy in April, albeit with growth tapering off slightly compared with March’s survey peak, and accompanied by signs of rising price pressures.

UK PMIs signal growth upturn at start of second quarter

Fri, 03 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The three UK PMI surveys collectively signaled the fastest rate of economic growth for eight months in April. The improvement reflected a strengthening upturn in service sector business activity, a return to marginal growth in the manufacturing sector and a near-stabilisation of construction.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [06-10 May]: Services PMI data followed by official trade and industry figures

Fri, 03 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Services PMI data from Markit for the Eurozone and major emerging markets are released at the start of the week, followed by official industrial output and trade data for major European economies and China.

Faster than expected hiring drives US unemployment to lowest since 2008

Fri, 03 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Official data show far stronger than previously thought job creation in the US, reducing the need for additional stimulus from the Fed. However, future discussion among policymakers is likely to be lively. Some will inevitably see the need to consider when policy could be scaled back due to the job market gains, while others will worry that the recent weakening of other economic indicators could mean employment growth starts to slow again in coming months.

Marginal improvement in Chinese manufacturing operating conditions during April

Thu, 02 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

April data from HSBC signalled only a slight improvement of operating conditions in the Chinese manufacturing sector, as output and new orders both expanded at weaker rates. New export orders contracted for the first time in 2013 so far.

Eurozone manufacturing downturn deepens at start of second quarter

Thu, 02 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone manufacturing started the second quarter of 2013 on a weak footing, with conditions in the sector deteriorating at the sharpest pace in the year-to-date.

ECB cuts rate to all-time low as recession deepens

Thu, 02 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

At last, the fastest contracting region in the world no longer has the highest central bank policy rate of all major developed economies. A combination of ongoing steep economic decline and falling inflation has prompted in the European Central Bank into renewed action to stimulate growth in the euro currency area.

Global manufacturing sector sees near-stalling of growth in April

Thu, 02 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI – compiled by Markit – came in at 50.5 in April, down to a four-month low from 51.1 in March to signal a near-stagnation of business activity in the world’s factories.

UK manufacturing sector stabilises in April

Wed, 01 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The UK manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilising at the start of the second quarter of 2013, as levels of production and new orders rose slightly after contracting in the prior two months. At 49.8 in April, up further from February’s four-month low, the seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) signalled little change in overall operating conditions in the sector, following contractions in the prior two months.

Sterling hits three-month high as UK manufacturing PMI beats expectations

Wed, 01 May 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Sterling jumped 0.3% after April’s Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI came in above expectations. The near-stabilisation of the manufacturing economy signalled by the survey significantly reduces the likelihood of the Bank of England voting for further QE at its May meeting next week.

Solid rises in output and new orders support continued expansion of Japanese manufacturing economy

Tue, 30 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

A modest improvement of Japanese manufacturing operating conditions was signalled during April. Led by a strong performance from investment goods producers, solid net rises in output and new orders were recorded. Yen depreciation also supported a gain in new export sales, but also raised the cost of imported goods which in part led to the sharpest rise of input costs for 19 months.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [29 Apr - 3 May]: Manufacturing and services PMIs

Fri, 26 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Monetary policy meetings at the Fed and ECB are scheduled for a busy week which also features Markit’s worldwide manufacturing and service sector PMIs, the ISM surveys and culminates with US non-farm payrolls.

No end to Fed stimulus in sight as US economic growth fails to impress in Q1

Fri, 26 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The US economy expanded at a slower-than-expected rate in the first quarter. Gross domestic product rose at an annualised rate of 2.5%, up sharply from the end of last year, but economists were hoping to see growth of at least 3.0%. Moreover, even this weaker-than-hoped growth rate exaggerates the true underlying momentum in the economy, as growth of final demand slowed compared with Q4 2012.

Spanish unemployment breaks 6 million mark

Thu, 25 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

A further illustration of the crisis engulfing the Spanish economy was provided today by the latest quarterly labour market statistics release. Unemployment broke through the 6 million barrier, just over a year after breaching the 5 million mark. More than one-third of these have been unemployed for two years or more, making it ever more difficult for them to get back into work.

UK economy avoids triple-dip recession with faster than expected expansion

Thu, 25 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The UK avoided sliding into its third recession in five years by growing more than expected in the first quarter. The likelihood of policy action by the Bank of England has fallen significantly with this better than expected outcome, but there remains pressure on the government and the Bank of England to find ways to ensure the latest upturn turns into a sustainable and robust recovery, and that the economy does not falter once again.

Germany: IFO survey adds emphasis to PMI’s signal of renewed downturn risk

Wed, 24 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

A second successive monthly drop in the IFO survey adds to the PMI’s message that the German economy could see a weakening of growth or even a renewed downturn in the second quarter.

UK retailers gloomiest for 15 months in April

Wed, 24 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

UK retailers reported a drop in sales on average for the first time in eight months in April, and the outlook for sales in the coming month darkened to the gloomiest for 15 months, according to the CBI.

Fall in China flash PMI signals near stagnation of manufacturing economy

Tue, 23 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.6 in March to 50.5 in April, according to the flash estimate produced by Markit, only a shade higher than February’s four-month low of 50.4. The above-50 reading means manufacturing conditions have now improved for six successive months but that the rate of expansion at the start of the second quarter slowed to near-stagnation.

Eurozone suffers ongoing downturn in April as Germany sees renewed contraction

Tue, 23 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index was unchanged on March’s reading of 46.5 in April, according to the flash estimate. The sub-50 reading indicated a drop in activity for the nineteenth time in the past 20 months, the exception being a marginal increase in January 2012.

US PMI points to weakest manufacturing expansion since last October

Tue, 23 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Flash US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to its lowest reading in six months during April. At 52.0, the flash PMI index, which is based on around 85% of usual monthly replies, was down from 54.6 in March and indicated a moderate improvement in overall manufacturing business conditions.

Weaker PMI data hit markets on global growth worries

Tue, 23 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Weaker than expected flash PMI surveys from Markit for China, the US and the euro area have led to increased worries about the global economy.

Global metal-users report further solid output growth in March, but indicators of commodity demand yet to see similar improvement

Mon, 22 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Output growth at global metal-using firms was sustained at a solid pace in March, according to the latest Metals PMI data from Markit. This rounded off a positive first quarter, echoing a more general improvement in global manufacturing sector conditions at the start of 2013.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [22-26 Apr]: UK first quarter GDP to reveal triple-dip fate

Fri, 19 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The preliminary estimate of first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) on Thursday will reveal whether the UK has slipped into a triple-dip recession. We estimate that the currently available data point to a modest 0.1% expansion at best, after GDP fell 0.3% in the fourth quarter of last year, although a further decline would not be a surprise.

UK retail sales rise in first quarter despite weather-related fall in March

Thu, 18 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Despite falling in March, which was in part attributable to bad weather, UK retail sales returned to growth in the fourth quarter, adding to signs that the economy is staging a steady recovery. However, this upturn could lose its legs in coming months as incomes are increasingly squeezed by weak pay growth and rising inflation.

UK pay growth drops to record low as employers withdraw from job market

Wed, 17 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Bleak looking labour market data raise the prospect of the Bank of England stepping up its asset buying programme in May. Employment fell, unemployment rose and pay growth slipped to a record low.

Fall in Eurozone inflation opens door for ECB action

Tue, 16 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Inflation has eased in the Eurozone to its lowest since August 2010, giving the ECB more leeway to cut interest rates and revive a region that is falling deeper into recession.

UK: Persistent high inflation curbs room for manoeuvre at Bank of England

Tue, 16 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

UK inflation remained well above its 2.0% target in March and looks set to increase further in coming months. Although recent falls in commodity prices may help limit the extent of the rise, stubbornly high inflation will limit the Bank of England’s scope to provide aggressive stimulus to the economy.

Oil price fall linked to loss of global economic growth momentum

Tue, 16 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Oil prices have fallen sharply, with Brent crude dropping below $100 per barrel for the first time since last July and West Texas Intermediate down to $88.3 per barrel. Both have fallen 9% so far in April.

United States: Robust rise in industry and house building marks positive end to Q1

Tue, 16 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Strong industrial production and housing data suggest that the US economy saw a robust end to the first quarter, but nagging doubts persist about the sustainability of such impressive growth in the spring.

IMF sees slower pace of global expansion

Tue, 16 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecast for this year from 3.5% to 3.3%, barely any stronger than the 3.2% expansion of 2012. Slower growth is expected in the US, China and the UK than had been anticipated last winter, and the eurozone is set to see a steeper downturn, but the outlook has improved for Japan. Growth is expected to pick up to 4.0% in 2014, similar to the expansion seen in 2011.

China: Economic growth slowdown contrasts with upbeat signals from business

Mon, 15 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Official data brought disappointing news on the performance of the world’s second largest economy at the start of 2013, with economic growth slowing rather than accelerating in China in the first quarter, as analysts had been anticipating. However, several factors suggest that the slowdown could merely be temporary.

Italy suffers longest recession on record

Wed, 15 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Italy recorded its seventh straight quarterly decrease in gross domestic product over the three months to March, which is now the longest period of continuous contraction since records began. ISTAT’s preliminary estimate of GDP showed a 0.5% reduction in output compared with the final quarter of 2012, indicating that the downturn was also deeper than the 0.3% decline expected in a Reuters survey of analysts.

Eurozone industrial downturn shows signs of easing in first quarter

Fri, 12 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone industry picked up in February, but the underlying trend in the official data is still one of a sector in decline and in line with the PMI, which suggests the industrial downturn has eased compared to late last year but gathered momentum again in March. Any further downturn in the Eurozone PMI in the second quarter could be the trigger for policy action from the ECB, which stands ready to act – possibly with a cut in interest rates - if business conditions deteriorate further.

Construction set to act as drag on UK economy in first quarter

Fri, 12 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

A downturn in the construction sector has added to the risk of having slid back into recession in the first quarter. UK construction industry output fell 7.0% on a year ago in February, worse than the 5.5% decline seen in January, according the latest data form the Office for National Statistics. For the first two months of the year, output is down 6.3% on last year.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [15-19 Apr]: China releases Q1 GDP

Fri, 12 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

A busy week for economy watchers starts with first quarter GDP data for China, which are likely to confirm earlier signals from the PMI surveys of faster economic growth. Industrial production and retail sales are also expected to have shown upward trends in March.

U.S. retail sales slide adds to fears of slowing economy

Fri, 12 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Lower consumer confidence looks to have resulted in a drop in US retail sales in March, raising the prospect that the economy is slowing as spring advances.

UK: Mixed signals as industrial production rebounds in February, but exports fall

Tue, 09 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Industrial production rebounded in February after having suffered a shock fall in January, greatly reducing the likelihood of the UK sliding back into its third recession since the financial crisis struck. However, any upturn in the first quarter is still likely to have been modest at best. The trade deficit was larger than expected, and survey data suggest the trend could weaken again in March.

Production rise adds to signs of industrial downturn easing in Germany

Tue, 09 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Downward trends in manufacturing output, industrial production and exports have eased in recent months, adding to signs that the German economy is set to see a weaker downturn in the first quarter compared to the steep 0.6% decline seen in the fourth quarter of last year. However, the official data need to improve further in March to catch up with the more positive-looking PMI surveys.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [08-12 Apr]: European industrial data likely to be weak

Fri, 05 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The week sees important indications of industrial performance in the UK and eurozone, which are likely to show weak trends, as well as retail sales for the US, which will reveal the extent to which consumption is holding up in the face of fiscal policy. Trade data for the UK, Germany, France and China will meanwhile provide an insight into the strength of global demand.

US unemployment rate falls to lowest since 2008, but job creation disappoints

Fri, 05 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The rate of unemployment in the US fell to 7.6% in March, dropping for the second successive month to its lowest since December 2008. Non-farm payroll numbers were a massive disappointment, however, rising by just 88,000 against analysts’ expectations of a 200,000 rise according to Reuters’ polls.

Emerging market growth remains subdued in March despite Chinese pick-up

Thu, 04 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The HSBC Emerging Markets Index (EMI), a monthly indicator derived from the PMI surveys, was little-changed from February’s 52.4 in March, posting 52.6. That indicated a subdued rate of economic growth in global emerging markets. However, the average EMI reading for the first three months of 2013 (52.9) exceeded those in both the third and fourth quarters of 2012.

Services upturn means PMIs point to marginal first quarter economic growth

Thu, 04 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

A gathering upturn in the service sector in March looks to have helped the UK avoid a triple-dip recession by the narrowest of margins.

Eurozone downturn intensifies as German economy shows near-stagnation

Thu, 04 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

At 46.5 in March, the final Markit Eurozone PMI® Composite Output Index was unchanged on the flash reading, confirming that the rate of decline in activity accelerated for the second month in a row to reach the fastest since last November.

Bank of England holds policy amid signs of economy gaining momentum

Thu, 04 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep policy unchanged at its April meeting. The decision is likely to have been a close call, and there is much uncertainty about whether further stimulus will be sanctioned in future meetings.

Japanese service sector registers record rise in activity during March

Wed, 03 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The Japanese service sector expanded in March at the quickest rate in over five years of data collection, as confidence improved and market demand strengthened. With companies experiencing an increase in backlogs for the first time in a year, employment was also raised at a firmer pace.

Solid rise in business activity across combined Chinese manufacturing and service sector in March

Wed, 03 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

HSBC China Composite PMI data (which covers both manufacturing and services) signalled a further expansion of output during March. Activity has now risen at the composite level for seven successive months. Furthermore, the rate of expansion accelerated from February to a solid pace. The HSBC China Composite Output Index posted 53.5 in March, up from February’s four-month low of 51.4.

Global manufacturing PMI edges higher in March

Tue, 02 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

At 51.2 in March, up slightly from 50.9 in February, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI – a composite index produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – signalled expansion for the third straight month.

Strong growth of U.S. manufacturing output, supporting faster rise in employment

Mon, 01 Apr 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The final Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index posted 54.6 in March, signalling a further improvement in overall U.S. manufacturing business conditions. The PMI was up from February’s 54.3 but down from the earlier flash estimate of 54.9, and consistent with a solid rate of expansion.

UK: Service sector growth stifles triple-dip fears

Thu, 28 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Growth in service sector activity at the start of the year has greatly reduced the risk of the UK falling back into a triple-dip recession. The country is not out of the woods yet, with much depending on how the economy has coped with adverse weather conditions in recent months, and the indications are that any growth is still disappointingly weak.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [1-5 Apr]: Manufacturing and services PMIs

Thu, 28 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

A public holiday in Europe on Monday means a staggered release of the March PMIs over the week. The publication of US and emerging market manufacturing surveys on Monday and services PMIs on Wednesday are therefore followed by UK and eurozone numbers a day later.

US economic growth stronger than previously thought, but still meagre

Thu, 28 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The US economy grew more than first thought in the final quarter of last year, though slightly less than economists had been hoping. The annualised rate of gross domestic product was revised up from +0.1% to +0.4%. The Reuters’ consensus was for a 0.5% rise. That still means the economy only expanded by a meagre 0.1% compared to the third quarter, but a better indication of the health of the economy late last year is provided by the growth rate for final sales, which excludes inventories, the annualised rate of which picked up from a previously-estimated 1.7% to 1.9%. The quarter also saw the largest drop in government defence spending since the 1970s, down 22%.

UK economy hit by falling investment, weak trade and cautious consumers

Wed, 27 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Final data for the fourth quarter of last year show an economy suffering from the headwinds of falling exports, declining business investment and cautious consumers.

US Flash PMI signals faster manufacturing expansion in March

Fri, 22 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The expansion of the U.S. manufacturing sector strengthened to the second-fastest pace in almost a year during March. This was signalled by the Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index , which is based on around 85% of usual monthly replies, rising to 54.9 from 54.3 in February, consistent with a solid rate of growth overall.

IFO survey adds to PMI message of renewed German economic slowdown

Fri, 22 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

It was only a small decline, but the first drop in the IFO survey’s business expectations index adds to signs that the German economy is slowing again.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [25-29 Mar]: Eurozone consumer and business sentiment under the spotlight as Cypriot crisis plays out

Fri, 22 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

With Cyprus adding to uncertainty caused by the Italian elections, analysts will be watching the European Commission consumer and business sentiment indicators for the main eurozone countries to see how confidence has been holding up in March. Markit’s Flash Eurozone PMI has already signalled an increased rate of decline of business activity in March, suggesting the economy was already turning down before the Cypriot crisis took hold.

HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI rebounds to signal strengthening upturn

Thu, 21 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The HSBC Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 in March, according to the flash estimate produced by Markit, rebounding from February’s four-month low of 50.4. The upturn signalled the strongest pace of expansion for 23 months with the exception of January’s two-year high. The above-50 reading means manufacturing conditions having now improved for five successive months following a 12-month period of decline.

Eurozone downturn intensifies for second month running in March

Thu, 21 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell from 47.9 in February to 46.5 in March, according to the flash estimate. The decline signalled an acceleration in the rate of contraction of business activity for the second consecutive month to the steepest experienced for four months.

UK 'triple-dip' fears ease on retail sales, tax and manufacturing data

Thu, 21 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The risk of the UK sliding into a triple-dip recession have fallen sharply following news of a rebound in retail sales, rising tax revenues and an improved outlook in manufacturing.

UK wage growth hits lowest since 2009 despite further upturn in employment

Wed, 20 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Official data once again provided a mixed picture of the health of the labour market data . Some reason to cheer came from a further rise in private sector employment, but the concern is that the jobs being created are low-paid positions which – combined with widespread job insecurity – means that average wage growth is worryingly weak.

UK inflation rises to nine-month high and supply chain price pressures build

Tue, 19 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Inflationary pressures picked up in February, not just at the retail level but also in the supply chain. Alongside some signs of underlying improvement in the economy and concerns about the weakness of the pound, the upturn in price pressures is likely to cause the Bank of England to hold back on voting for further stimulus at its next meeting.

Rising business confidence points to global economic upturn in 2013

Mon, 18 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Worldwide business confidence has revived from the post-crisis low seen late last year, with expectations of business activity, revenues and inflows of new business all rising to their highest since the start of last year.

Rising private sector pay helps ease pressures on household finances

Mon, 18 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

This release contains the March findings from the Markit Household Finance Index, which is intended to anticipate changing consumer behaviour accurately. The HFI is compiled each month by Markit, a leading global financial information services company, using data collected by Ipsos MORI.

Improved business optimism points to strengthening economic upturn in 2013

Mon, 18 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The latest Markit Business Outlook survey signals an improvement in prospects among US manufacturers and services companies in early 2013 compared to late last year.

China drives upturn in emerging market business optimism

Mon, 18 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

An upturn in business optimism in China to its highest for two years and sustained positive sentiment in Brazil, India and Russia adds to evidence that the emerging markets will help drive increased momentum of the global economic recovery in 2013.

Eurozone business confidence rises to one-year high

Mon, 18 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Expectations regarding business activity over the next 12 months have strengthened across the Eurozone compared with the previous survey conducted in October 2012. Increased activity is forecast by +24 percent of companies on balance, up from just +8 percent last autumn and the highest reading for a year.

UK business mood brightest since early 2012, led by manufacturing

Mon, 18 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

UK business confidence has picked up compared to late last year, according to the latest Markit Business Outlook Survey. Growth in export markets and improving economic conditions at home are cited as key factors driving improved optimism about the outlook, encouraging increasing numbers of firms to launch new products and boost investment.

Japanese business confidence surges to post-crisis high

Mon, 18 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Business confidence in Japan has risen to its highest seen since the recovery began from the global financial crisis in 2008-09.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [18-22 Mar]: UK Budget accompanied by government borrowing, inflation and unemployment data

Fri, 15 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

In what may be a turbulent week for sterling, the UK Chancellor sets out his fiscal policies in his Budget on Wednesday, which should also include a review of the Bank of England’s monetary policy remit. The week also sees the release of government borrowing, retail sales, inflation and labour market statistics, plus the minutes from the March Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Largest monthly rise in US consumer prices since June 2009

Fri, 15 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

A jump in gasoline prices meant US consumer prices rose more-than-expected in February, showing the largest monthly increase since June 2009. Core prices also rose. The increase will jangle some nerves at the Fed, but policymakers will remain focused on ensuring the economic upturn looks sustainable and robust before worrying too much about inflation.

US industrial production upturn confirms PMI signal of stronger Q1 growth

Fri, 15 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

US industrial production rose 0.7% in February, led by a 0.8% increase in manufacturing output. Analysts had been expecting increases of just 0.4% for both measures.

Eurozone industrial production falls more than expected in January

Wed, 13 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone industry fared worse than expected in January, but the underlying trend in the sector is one of a moderating, albeit still severe, downturn.

US retail sales growth hits five-month high in February

Wed, 13 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Total retail sales in the US were expected to have increased by 0.5%, with core sales (which exclude autos, gas stations and building materials) up a more modest 0.2%. Instead, sales jumped 1.1% compared with January, the strongest rise since last September. Part of the increase could be explained by higher gasoline prices, but core sales were also up twice as much as anticipated, rising 0.4%.

UK: Industrial production slide adds to ‘triple-dip’ recession worries

Tue, 12 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Industrial production suffered a shock fall in January, led down by a steep drop in oil and gas extraction and a slump in manufacturing output. At the same time, goods exports fell sharply.

Consumers under pressure as inflation worries intensify

Fri, 08 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Data from the Bank of England showed inflation expectations rising in February. Inflation in 12 months' time is expected to be running at 3.6%, up from 3.5% in January and the highest seen since last May. In five years' time, inflation is anticipated at 3.6%, unchanged on the January survey and the highest seen since the survey, conducted by NOP, commenced in 2009.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [11-15 Mar]: US retail sales data to add to signs of GDP upturn in Q1

Fri, 08 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

In the US, February retail sales and the University of Michigan’s preliminary estimate of consumer confidence in March are likely to show that the consumer sector remains on track to help boost a revival in GDP in the first quarter after the economy stagnated in the final quarter of last year (mustering a mere 0.1% annualised rate of expansion). Inflation data will also be released, though market reaction is likely to be minimal due to the Fed’s current policy focus on the labour market.

Surge in U.S. job creation adds to signs of improving economic health

Fri, 08 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

U.S. non-farm payrolls rose by 236,000 in February, smashing through market expectations of a rise of 160,000. Even though January's total was revised down, the recent upturn in hiring has had a marked impact on unemployment, the rate of which fell to a four-year low of 7.7% from 7.9% in January.

German regional PMI data signal solid rise in Bavarian business activity

Fri, 08 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

After a downbeat end to 2012, regional PMI data produced by Markit indicated a brighter start for 2013 in Bavaria’s business sector. The Free State of Bavaria – home to some 12.6 million people and accounting for 17% of German GDP – recorded an increase in business activity for the second successive month in February. The solid rate of growth was only fractionally slower than the 11-month high seen in January, and was marginally faster than seen in Germany as a whole.

ECB holds rates but discusses looser policy

Thu, 07 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged at its March policy meeting, disappointing the minority of analysts that had been expected a cut in its current policy rate of 0.75% to a new all-time low of 0.5%. No other measures were announced.

Bank of England keeps monetary policy unchanged

Thu, 07 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep policy unchanged at its March meeting. Signs of better growth in the service sector alongside above-target inflation is likely to have convinced some members that further stimulus was not appropriate at the moment. However, the concern is that monetary policy alone is proving ineffective in stimulating a meaningful recovery and, given the absence of government initiatives to remove the obstacles still impeding the economic recovery, the outlook is one of further stagnation or modest growth at best.

Broad-based slowdown in emerging markets growth in February

Wed, 06 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The HSBC Emerging Markets Index (EMI), a monthly indicator derived from the PMI surveys, fell from 53.8 in January to 52.3 in February. That was the lowest figure since August 2012 and indicated a moderation in economic growth in global emerging markets.

Irish exporters outperform domestically-focussed firms

Tue, 05 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

A new analysis of PMI data indicates that Irish exporters have consistently outperformed their non-exporting counterparts since the financial crisis, and continue to record strong growth in output, new orders and employment at the start of 2013.

Japanese PMIs point to “Abenomics”-fuelled growth upturn

Tue, 05 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Business confidence in Japan has surged to a five-and-a-half year high, fuelled by expectations of economic recovery following the government’s pledge to defeat deflation. PMI data suggest that the country could pull out of its recession in the first quarter, but the rate of expansion is likely to be only modest and the government faces huge challenges to sustain the recent improvement in business sentiment.

UK Services PMI upturn puts economy on course for marginal growth in first quarter

Tue, 05 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Worries about a triple-dip recession in the UK have been softened as service sector companies reported the strongest upturn in business activity for five months in February. The faster growth of the dominant services sector offset downturns in the far smaller manufacturing and construction sectors during February, meaning the economy is likely to have grown for a second successive month after the downturn late last year.

Eurozone downturn accelerates despite German growth

Tue, 05 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

At 47.9 in February, the Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index came in above the earlier flash estimate of 47.3 but remained down on January’s reading of 48.6.

Strength of first quarter growth under scrutiny as Global PMI hits four-month low

Tue, 05 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Global economic growth slowed to a four-month low in February, according to the JPMorgan Global PMI, a survey-based leading indicator of worldwide business activity produced by Markit. The index remains elevated compared to the lows seen late last year, suggesting that global GDP growth is still likely to have picked up in the first quarter (the annual rate of growth of worldwide GDP slowed to an estimated three-year low of 1.3% in the final quarter of 2012), but the drop in the PMI from 53.2 in January to 53.0 in February raises question marks over growth momentum and the sustainability of the improvement moving into the second quarter.

Sterling rebounds as UK PMI data allay fear of ‘triple-dip’ recession

Tue, 05 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Having fallen below $1.50 for the first time in just over two years on Friday due to much weaker-than-expected manufacturing PMI data, sterling rebounded sharply on Tuesday on the back of consensus-beating service sector PMI data.

Euro area reliance on exports for growth highlighted by PMI divergences

Fri, 01 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Data derived from the Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI survey shows a clear divergence between the performance of exporting companies and those firms that are reliant solely on domestic markets. This highlights the weakness of domestic demand within the Eurozone, notably in the southern member states, where the divergence has shown signs of widening again at the start of 2013.

Eurozone manufacturing downturn continues despite German stabilisation

Fri, 01 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

At 47.9 in February, up slightly from a flash reading of 47.8, the seasonally adjusted Markit Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was unchanged from January’s 11-month high. The headline PMI signalled a deterioration in business conditions for the nineteenth successive month, but the rate of contraction remained one of the weakest seen during the past year.

Return to contraction of UK manufacturing sector in February

Fri, 01 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The UK manufacturing sector lost considerable momentum during February, with output, new orders and employment all posting net reductions since January. Purchasing activity was also cut markedly, as manufacturers continued to signal a preference for lower stock holdings.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [4-8 Mar]: Service sector PMIs to give guidance ahead of monetary policy meetings at the Bank of England and ECB

Fri, 01 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

A crowded week for economy watchers includes the worldwide service sector PMIs, US non-farm payrolls, a wealth of indicators for China, fourth quarter GDP updates for the Eurozone, Japan and Australia (first estimate), not to mention policy decision meetings at the ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan.

Global manufacturing growth maintained, albeit at weaker pace

Fri, 01 Mar 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Growth of the global manufacturing sector was maintained in February, although the rate of improvement eased from the start of the year and was only modest.

US fourth quarter GDP contraction revised away to show marginal growth

Thu, 28 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The US economy is estimated to have grown at an annualised rate of 0.1% in the final quarter of last year rather than having contracted 0.1% as previously estimated. The underlying trend is likely to have been firmer than this headline number suggests, and faster growth is on the cards for the first quarter of this year.

UK economic downturn due to cautious consumers, falling business investment and export losses

Wed, 27 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The UK economy contracted 0.3% in the final quarter of last year, but is now estimated to have grown in 2012 as a whole rather than stagnated as previously thought. A return to growth is likely in the first quarter. However, with the root causes of the weakness of the economy unresolved, very modest growth at best can be expected over the course of 2013.

China Flash Manufacturing PMI signals weakest growth for four months

Mon, 25 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell from a two-year high of 52.3 in January to 50.4 in February, according to the flash estimate produced by Markit. The latest reading indicated that manufacturing conditions improved for the fourth successive month, but that the rate of improvement was the weakest seen over this period.

UK bank lending disappoints in January as mortgage approvals drop and businesses continue to repay debt

Mon, 25 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

There was little evidence of the government's Funding for Lending Scheme driving more bank lending in January, according to statistics from the British Banker's Association.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [25 Feb - 1 Mar]: Manufacturing PMIs to give update on health of global economy in February

Fri, 22 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The week starts with the release of the flash manufacturing PMI for China on Monday and ends with worldwide final PMI releases on Friday. However, the week also sees the results of the Italian general election, which also has the potential to alter market sentiment if opinion polls of a centre-left coalition victory involving Mario Monti prove wrong.

European Commission sees eurozone contraction in 2013

Fri, 22 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

A downward revision to the European Commission's economic growth forecasts for the eurozone suggest that governments will be given more time to reduce budget deficits without implementing harsher austerity measures, while at the same time putting more pressure on the European Central Bank to provide a further boost of stimulus, perhaps via a cut in its main policy rate.

Eurozone PMI signals steepening downturn in February

Thu, 21 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Eurozone PMI® Composite Output Index fell to 47.3 in February from 48.6 in January, according to the flash estimate. The decline signals a steepening of the economic downturn, contrasting with the easing trend seen in the previous three months. Business activity has now declined throughout the past year-and-a-half, with the exception of a marginal increase in January last year.

UK Government borrowing still set to rise despite healthy January surplus

Thu, 21 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Government borrowing figures were much better than expected in January but, with just two months of the tax year remaining, borrowing is still up 1.6% on last year and the government's target for the year looks likely to be missed by perhaps £5-10bn. The Chancellor will need to reassure the markets and credit rating agencies in the Budget that policies can be put in place to revive the stagnant UK economy and break the cycle of weak growth, low tax revenues and rising government borrowing.

Sharpest rise in U.S. manufacturing output in almost two years

Thu, 21 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI signalled further expansion of the manufacturing sector in February, although the rate of growth slowed slightly on January’s nine-month peak. At 55.2, down from 55.8, the ‘flash’ PMI reading, which is based on around 85% of usual monthly replies, continued to suggest a strong improvement in overall manufacturing business conditions.

UK employment reaches all-time high

Wed, 20 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The head scratching intensifies as data show employment rising to a new all-time high at the same time as the economy contracted at the end of last year. While GDP data showed the output of the country falling 0.3% in the final three months of last year, unemployment fell by 13,000 to 2.501 million and employment rose by 154,000 to a new record of 29.73 million, its highest since records began in 1971.

Using PMI data to analyse auto industry metal demand

Tue, 19 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

PMI data from Markit can be used to gain an insight into the auto sector’s demand for raw materials such as metals and its relative performance to other metal-intensive manufacturers. For example, January data signalled a welcome easing in the pace of decline of new orders received by the Automobiles & Parts sector in Europe to the slowest for almost a year. Nevertheless, the fall was steeper than that registered by steel-users generally across the region, continuing a trend that has been evident over the past 16 months. This ongoing, steeper-than-average, decline suggests the European car industry’s demand for steel is likely to remain subdued for some time to come.

UK retail sales suffer steepest downward trend for almost three years

Fri, 15 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Widespread heavy snowfall deterred high street shoppers in January, causing retail sales to drop 0.6% during the month, also down 0.6% on a year ago. However, while the underlying trend in sales has been increasingly negative in recent months, reaching the worst since early-2010, there are signs that the household sector is slowly beginning to revive.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [18-22 Feb]: Flash PMIs released for US and eurozone

Fri, 15 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The health of the global economy in February will come into focus with the publication of the flash PMIs on Thursday. The Markit-produced business surveys have picked up in recent months, showing accelerating growth of the US and German manufacturing economies in January.

US industrial production growth trend hits 11-month high despite January dip

Fri, 15 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Industrial production fell 0.1% in January, confounding analysts' expectations of a 0.2% increase. The downturn was led by a 0.4% drop in manufacturing output. However, December’s industrial production numbers were revised up, from 0.3% to 0.4%, and November had seen a 1.4% increase. The January data therefore need to be looked at in part as an adjustment of production levels from the strong upturn seen late last year.

Official data confirm surveys, as Eurozone GDP shows largest fall since early-2009

Thu, 14 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone GDP contracted 0.6% in the final quarter of 2012, a steep contraction that was identified by PMIs well in advance of official data. The surveys have since shown that the downturn eased at the start of 2013.

Gloomier Bank of England sees monetary policy alone as insufficient to generate robust growth

Wed, 13 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The Bank of England revised down its growth forecasts in its latest quarterly Inflation Report and hiked its expectations for inflation. However, it is clear that the Bank's decisions on monetary policy will not be determined by the rate of inflation for the foreseeable future, and instead be guided by the pace of economic recovery and expectations of inflation, which remain fairly well-anchored.

Eurozone industrial production suffers steepest quarterly fall since early-2009

Wed, 13 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Industrial production rose across the euro area in December, but the increase follows steep falls in each of the previous three months and care should therefore be taken in interpreting this single data point as the start of a recovery. The data nevertheless add to survey evidence which suggest that the region's economy is showing signs of being on the mend.

UK inflation stuck at 2.7% despite weak demand

Tue, 12 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

UK inflation remained stuck at 2.7% for the fourth month running in January, according to the Office for National Statistics. Retail price inflation rose from 3.1% to 3.3%, its highest since last April.

French industrial sector sees steepest quarterly downturn for almost four years

Mon, 11 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The French industrial sector suffered the steepest decline in output since the height of the financial crisis, official data for the end of last year indicated. The data confirm the message from gloomy business surveys which also suggest that the sector’s downturn persisted, and possibly steepened, at the start of 2013.

Chinese export growth surges in January, inflation cools

Fri, 08 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Strong growth of China’s exports in January add to evidence that the world’s second largest economy is seeing a further acceleration in the pace of economic growth at the start of 2013. In signalling a revival of worldwide trade flows,. the data also bode will for the global economy.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [11-15 Feb]: Eurozone GDP to show deepening recession

Fri, 08 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The first estimate of eurozone GDP in the final three months of 2012 is expected to show the region contracting for the third successive quarter. A decline of at least 0.3% is likely, pointing to a deepening downturn after the 0.1% contraction in the third quarter.

Further signs of US upturn as exports jump 2.1% in December

Fri, 08 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Trade data for December paint a reassuring and encouraging picture of the US economy at the end of last year, suggesting the economy did not fare as badly as the initial GDP estimate suggested in the fourth quarter. The data also add to an increasingly bright picture of the global economy at the turn of the year.

European auto sector stabilises in January

Thu, 07 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Having undergone the steepest downturn since the height of the financial crisis last year, January PMI data for the European automobiles industry raised the likelihood of a recovery in business conditions within the sector in early-2013. Although new orders continued to fall, the rate of decline was the weakest since last February and output was broadly stable.

Signs of UK upturn as production and exports rise in December

Thu, 07 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Manufacturing and trade showed signs of renewed life in December, adding to indications that the UK economy gathered momentum at the end of last year. The improving trends in output and exports mean there is a reduced risk that the country slid into a triple-dip recession, but this of course depends on the momentum being sustained during the first quarter, which is by no means assured.

German industrial sector shrinks at fastest pace since 2009

Thu, 07 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Manufacturing output in Germany is falling at the fastest quarterly rate since early 2009, according to official data which are now confirming the downbeat messages from gloomy business surveys. However, those same surveys are now indicating a revival of the sector as we move into 2013.

HSBC EMI: Emerging markets growth gains momentum in January

Wed, 06 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The HSBC Emerging Markets Index (EMI), a monthly indicator derived from the PMI surveys, rose from 53.0 in December to 53.9 in January. That was the highest figure since February 2012, and only slightly lower than the seven-year long-run average of 54.2.

UK PMI surveys highlight the risks of nominal GDP targeting

Wed, 06 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The PMI surveys signalled a return to growth of the UK private sector economy in January, and have also moved back to a level consistent with policymakers keeping monetary policy on hold. This contrasts with the latest available GDP numbers, which signal a deteriorating economy and would support the case for further policy stimulus.

UK PMIs signal economy’s return to growth in January

Tue, 05 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Business activity in the UK picked up at the start of the year, according to the PMI surveys, pointing to a return to growth of the UK economy and greatly reducing the likelihood of the country falling back into a “triple-dip” recession.

Eurozone downturn eases but national divergence hits record high

Tue, 05 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

At 48.6 in January, from 47.2 in December, the Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index rose to a ten-month high and came in above its earlier flash estimate of 48.2. Although signalling a further deterioration in output of the Eurozone private sector economy, the rate of decline has now eased for three straight months.

Slower US expansion acts as drag on wider global economic upturn

Tue, 05 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Global economic growth slowed slightly in January compared to December’s nine-month high, according to purchasing managers’ surveys, but remained well above the lows seen last summer. The lower pace of expansion was also limited to the US, with the UK and Japan returning to growth, upturns seen in almost all major emerging markets and the eurozone ownturn easing again.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [4-8 Feb]: Service sector PMIs and ISM non-manufacturing

Fri, 01 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The week sees the publication of worldwide service sector PMI numbers for January, as well as monetary policy meetings at the ECB and Bank of England.

Growth of UK manufacturing production at 16-month high in January

Fri, 01 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

UK manufacturing production continued to expand at the start of 2013, following a further increase in new orders and ongoing efforts to clear backlogs of work. The labour market also continued to stabilise following the job losses seen through much of the middle of last year.

Eurozone manufacturing recession eases at start of 2013

Fri, 01 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The downturn in the Eurozone manufacturing sector eased at the start of 2013, as rates of decline in production and new orders both slowed.

US: Solid growth of payrolls fails to prevent rise in jobless rate

Fri, 01 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

A solid gain in US employment provides welcome reassurance that the US economy is healthier than the surprise fall in fourth quarter GDP and is not at risk of a renewed recession. However, policymakers will no doubt remain unimpressed at the pace of the job market recovery, suggesting there is no end in sight for Fed stimulus.

Global manufacturing growth hits ten-month high in January

Fri, 01 Feb 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The global economy showed further signs of pulling out of the soft patch seen last year, with worldwide manufacturers reporting the first significant improvement in business conditions since last April.

Eurozone business sentiment rises for third month running

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

An increase in business sentiment for the third month running in January provides further evidence that the Eurozone’s recession is showing signs of moderating as we move into 2013.

Surprise fourth quarter economic contraction in the US

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The US suffered a surprise economic contraction in the final quarter of last year, but this is not likely to be the start of a double-dip recession. While vindicating the Fed's aggressive policy stance, the economic weakness late last year should not be a cause of renewed concern for policymakers.

UK official data confirm fourth quarter economic contraction

Fri, 25 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The UK economy contracted more than expected in the final three months of last year according to official data, confirming earlier signs of weakness from the business surveys. The disappointing numbers bang another nail in the coffin of the UK's AAA credit rating as the country faces the growing risk of a triple-dip recession.

Germany: Business cycle upswing signalled as IFO survey rises in line with PMI

Fri, 25 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The IFO survey of German business conditions rose sharply in January, matching a similar rise in the flash PMI, published on Thursday. The positive survey data indicate that the economy is reviving as it enters 2013, recovering from a disappointing end to 2012.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [28 Jan-1 Feb]: US GDP growth expected to have slowed in Q4

Fri, 25 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The most important economic releases will come out of the US. The first estimate of US GDP in the final quarter of last year is expected to show the annualised rate of growth slowing from 3.1% in the third quarter to just 1.3%, according to a Reuters poll. However, such a weak number would provide a misleading guide to the underlying health of the US economy, with much of the deterioration due to weakness in the inventories and government spending components. Private sector growth, on the other hand, looks to have possibly accelerated, according to the business surveys, painting a promising picture of a return to faster growth in the first quarter.

Chinese Manufacturing PMI starts 2013 on two-year high

Thu, 24 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

China’s manufacturing economy grew at the fastest rate for 24 months in January. The flash manufacturing PMI for China, produced by Markit on behalf of HSBC, rose for a fifth successive month, up from 51.5 in December to 51.9, its highest since January 2011.

Eurozone downturn eases as PMI hits ten-month high

Thu, 24 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index rose for the third consecutive month in January according to the flash estimate, up to a ten-month high of 48.2 from 47.2 in December, and up sharply from October’s post-crisis low of 45.7.

Worldwide manufacturing upturn gains further momentum in January

Thu, 24 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Purchasing manager surveys indicate that the global economy has picked up further momentum at the start of 2013. Markit’s flash manufacturing PMIs, which cover the world’s three largest goods-producing economies, showed growth rising to 24- and 22-month highs in China and the US respectively, while the euro area saw the smallest fall in activity for ten months.

UK labour market shows resilience as employment climbs to record high

Wed, 23 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The UK labour market continued to show surprising resilience in the face of signs of renewed economic weakness in the fourth quarter, with employment rising to a new all-time high and unemployment dropping to the lowest since the spring of 2011.

UK government borrowing higher than expected as weak economic growth hits tax revenues

Tue, 22 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Government borrowing appears on course to be higher than planned for the current year, as austerity measures have failed to reduce government spending and weak economic growth has resulted in disappointing tax revenues. The danger is that the data add to the risk of the UK losing its AAA credit rating, a risk that will intensify significantly if Friday's GDP report shows the UK entering a new downturn.

Steel-user PMI data as a leading indicator of steel production

Tue, 22 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

An insight into future steel production can be gleaned from surveys of how busy steel-using companies are, looking at their production, order book and warehouse inventory trends. In this respect, PMI data from Markit’s worldwide surveys of steel-intensive manufacturers act as a useful leading indicator of steel production, available up to six months before comparable data from other sources for the US, Europe and Asia.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [21-25 Jan]: UK, South Korean GDP and worldwide Flash PMIs

Fri, 18 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Flash PMIs for China, the Eurozone and the US are published by Markit on Thursday, as is South Korean Q4 GDP. The UK publishes the first estimate of Q4 GDP on Friday.

UK industrial production suffers steepest downward trend since April 2009

Fri, 11 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Industrial production data for November add to the likelihood of the UK economy having contracted in the final quarter of last year. There are signs that the situation in manufacturing improved in December, but a deteriorating trend in the far larger service sector and forecasts of heavy snow for January have raised the possibility that the economy could contract in the first quarter.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [14-18 Jan]: China GDP growth to have gained pace in Q4

Fri, 11 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

An overview of the week's economic releases.

Emerging market growth accelerates slightly in Q4 as manufacturing sector expands

Thu, 10 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The final EMI report for 2012 indicated a slight acceleration in economic growth across emerging markets worldwide. That said, total activity rose at a pace that remained weaker than the average shown over the four years since the 2008 financial crisis.

China's trade surplus grows in December as exports revive

Thu, 10 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

A revival of export growth helped drive China’s trade surplus sharply higher in December. The trade data signal an encouragingly strong end to 2012, boding well for the Chinese economy as well as indicating that global economic growth has also turned up, corresponding with recent business survey evidence.

Global Manufacturing PMI as a leading indicator of commodity prices

Thu, 10 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Historical analysis of the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI, compiled by Markit, illustrates the predictive power of the index for tracking movements in commodity prices.

UK trade deficit narrows as rising goods exports add to signs of manufacturing revival

Wed, 09 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

An upturn in goods exports in November adds to signs that the manufacturing economy showed signs of improving in the final quarter of last year. However, the trade deficit looks likely to have risen compared to the third quarter, and remains very high by historical standards, thereby acting as a drag on economic growth and adding to the possibility that the UK contracted at the end of last year.

Steep fall in German industrial production raises spectre of fourth quarter GDP slide

Wed, 09 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Official industrial production data have moved closer into line with survey data which have indicated that the German economy contracted in the fourth quarter of 2012, with the possibility of a far steeper than previously expected decline.

Slumping exports add to fourth quarter downturn worries in Germany

Tue, 08 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

A steep fall in exports adds to evidence that the German economy slid into contraction in the final quarter of 2012. The business surveys suggest that the rate of decline eased in December, and the economy may return to growth in the first quarter of 2013, but weak eurozone demand is likely to impede the pace of recovery.

France: Slumping exports add to fourth quarter downturn worries

Tue, 08 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

French exports fell sharply in November, according to official data, matched by a similar steep fall in imports. Survey data suggest that a further decline in exports is on the cards for December, raising the prospect of a renewed economic downturn in the final quarter of 2012.

Global economy ends 2012 on nine-month high

Tue, 08 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Global economic growth edged up to a nine-month high in December, according to the global PMI surveys, rounding off the best quarter since the first three months of the year. Ongoing robust growth in the US was accompanied by faster growth in most key emerging markets, as well as an easing in the rate of contraction in the Eurozone.

Output trends improve across most European sectors in December, with banks in particular returning to growth

Tue, 08 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Although 14 of the 22 sectors covered by detailed sector PMI data for Europe posted a reduced level of output in December, the rates of contraction slowed in half. Declines eased particularly in healthcare equipment & services and travel & leisure, although moderate reductions were still recorded in both cases.

Activity at Hotels & Restaurants in Spain falls sharply after VAT rise

Fri, 04 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

In September 2012, Spain raised both its headline rate of VAT and the reduced rate eligible on certain items to help cut the budget deficit. Importantly, reclassifications also took place meaning that some goods and services were moved from the reduced rate to the general rate. A number of the areas reclassified were part of the Hotels & Restaurants sector, and the early signs are that the rise has had a strong negative impact on already weak demand in this part of the economy.

Slowest decline in Madrid economic output for a year-and-a-half

Fri, 04 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

PMI survey data indicate that the economic downturn has moderated sharply in the Madrid region, providing a ray of hope while the country as a whole remains mired in a steep downturn.

Ireland bucks Eurozone downturn as growth accelerates in the fourth quarter

Fri, 04 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The Irish economy continues to recover modestly, in contrast to the picture seen across much of the rest of the Eurozone. The latest official data showed gross domestic product rising in the third quarter of 2012, and the more timely PMI data meanwhile suggest that further growth was recorded by the economy in the final three months of the year. By comparison, the Eurozone as a whole remains in a downturn.

UK: Renewed weakness in December PMI surveys rounds off worst quarter for three-and-a-half years

Fri, 04 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The UK saw a renewed bout of economic weakness at the end of 2012. The all-sector Output Index from the three PMI surveys fell below the 50.0 no change level for the second time in three months in December, dropping from 50.1 in November to 49.9. Over the fourth quarter as a whole, the PMI surveys have signalled the worst performance since the second quarter of 2009.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [7-11 Jan]: No change in policy expected at the BoE and ECB

Fri, 04 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

An overview of the week's economic releases.

Eurozone downturn eases at the end of 2012. Germany returns to growth, but recessions continue in France, Italy and Spain

Fri, 04 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone downturn eased further at the end of 2012, as rates of contraction in economic output and new business slowed. At a nine-month high of 47.2 in December, the Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index was nonetheless weaker than the earlier flash estimate and below the 50.0 no-change mark for the eleventh successive month.

Global economic growth at nine-month high in December

Fri, 04 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

Global private sector output expanded at the fastest pace for nine months in December, rounding off the strongest quarter since Q1 2012. Trends in new orders and employment also improved, but there were further signs of companies supporting output levels by working through backlogs of work.

Eurozone manufacturing ends 2012 mired in recession, as demand from domestic and export markets remains weak

Wed, 02 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone manufacturing sector ended the year on a weak footing, with levels of production and new orders both contracting further in December. Rates of decline accelerated slightly over the month and were stronger than the earlier flash estimates.

UK manufacturing production and new orders expand in December

Wed, 02 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The UK manufacturing sector ended 2012 on a positive note, with levels of production and new orders rising at faster rates in December. The labour market also showed signs of stabilising, with employment broadly unchanged over the month.

Global manufacturing holds steady at end of 2012

Wed, 02 Jan 2013 12:00:00 GMT

The global manufacturing sector continued to stabilise in December. At 50.2, from 49.6 in November, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI – a composite index produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – lifted back above the no-change mark of 50.0 for the first time since May 2012.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [28 Dec - 04 Jan]: Manufacturing and services PMI data released worldwide

Fri, 28 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

An overview of the week's economic releases.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [24-28 Dec]: Industrial output and inflation data released for Japan

Fri, 21 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

An overview of the week's economic releases.

UK retail sales trend deteriorates

Thu, 20 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The underlying trend in retail sales has deteriorated to its worst since September 2011, and sales could even fall over the fourth quarter as a whole according to the indications available so far. With production and trade data also turning down, it is looking very unlikely that the consumer is going to save the economy from sliding back into another contraction.

Chinese manufacturing ends year on a high

Fri, 14 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

China’s manufacturing economy grew at the fastest rate for 14 months in December, with promising signs that growth will continue to accelerate.

Eurozone downturn eases as Germany returns to growth

Fri, 14 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The eurozone downturn showed further signs of easing in December, adding to hopes that the outlook for next year is brightening. It looks like the downturn reached its fiercest back in October, since when the PMI has turned up steadily by no means spectacularly.

Global outlook brightens as flash PMIs rise in the US, China & Eurozone

Fri, 14 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Markit’s flash manufacturing PMI data, which cover the world’s three largest goods-producing economies, indicate that global manufacturing is showing renewed signs of life.

Week Ahead Economic [17-21 Dec]: Final GDP estimates for the US and UK

Fri, 14 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

An overview of the week's economic releases.

UK employment hits record high, but rate of job creation slows

Wed, 12 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

More good news on the labour market, as employment hit a record high and unemployment continued to fall thanks to increased private sector hiring. However, there are signs that the pace of private sector job creation has started to slow, matching the gloomier picture that is beginning to appear from the business surveys.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [10-14 Dec]: Flash PMIs to provide clues to economic growth in December

Fri, 07 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

December brings an earlier than usual release of the flash PMIs for the Eurozone, US and China on Friday. The surveys will provide the first insight into business conditions in the final month of the fourth quarter, and give vital clues as to whether global growth bottomed out from a three-year low in the third quarter.

UK manufacturing output slumps in October

Fri, 07 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

A steeper-than-expected decline in manufacturing output adds to suspicions that the UK economy faces a renewed downturn in the fourth quarter.

Europe: November sees stronger growth in food & drink, non-bank financial services and technology

Fri, 07 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The latest detailed sector PMI data for Europe indicated further declines in most sectors in November, but signs of strengthening growth in some key industries.

US unemployment falls to four-year low as robust payroll growth continues

Fri, 07 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

US non-farm payrolls rose by 146,000 in November, confounding analysts’ expectations of weaker growth due to storm disruptions. There was in fact no significant impact from Hurricane Sandy according to the Labor Department, which perhaps bodes well for other economic indicators.

Official data start to confirm the German manufacturing survey downturn gloom

Fri, 07 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Manufacturing output in the Eurozone's largest member country was some 2.4% lower than September, confirming indications from recent business surveys that the German economy is on course to contract in the fourth quarter, which will in turn drive the Eurozone as a whole deeper into its double-dip recession.

UK: Falling exports add to fourth quarter downturn worries

Thu, 06 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Overseas trade data for October add to the gloomy news on the UK economy, with a steep downturn in exports pointing to a heightened risk that the country is facing a slide back into a new recession.

Weak rise in Brazilian GDP, but improvement looks likely

Thu, 06 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Official GDP figures show that growth of the Brazilian economy picked up during the third quarter. Expansion so far this year though looks far weaker than the government’s forecast. However, PMI data suggest a further improvement is likely in the fourth quarter, and that companies are reporting a brighter outlook for the year ahead.

UK PMIs point to risk of renewed economic downturn in fourth quarter

Wed, 05 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK is undergoing a renewed bout of economic weakness as it heads towards the end of 2012. The all-sector Output Index from the three PMI surveys rose from 49.7 in October to 50.2 in November, edging above the 50.0 no change mark. However, despite the increase, the latest reading was the third-weakest since April 2009 and consistent with the economy sliding back into contraction.

Eurozone downturn continues in November, as economic activity falls across the big-four nations

Wed, 05 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index rose to 46.5 in November, up from October’s 40-month low of 45.7 and above the earlier flash estimate of 45.8.

Global economic growth hits eight-month high in November

Wed, 05 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Global economic growth picked up speed in November, although much of the improvement was attributable to stronger expansion in the US. Elsewhere, emerging markets continued to report only tepid growth and the Eurozone remained embedded in its double-dip recession, subduing growth in neighbouring countries.

UK deficit outlook worsens due to gloomier economic backdrop

Wed, 05 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Office for Budget responsibility downgraded its economic outlook for the UK. The economy is now expected to contract by 0.1% in 2012 compared to the previous estimate of a 0.8% expansion made back in the spring, while growth in 2013 has been scaled back from 2.0% to 1.2%.

New HSBC Egypt PMI signals further marginal deterioration in private sector business conditions

Tue, 04 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Business conditions at private sector firms in Egypt deteriorated for the second successive month in November. New orders and output fell marginally, but at slower rates than in the previous month. Meanwhile, purchase price inflation accelerated, but remained relatively muted.

US: Divergence in ISM and Markit survey headline indicators masks consistent picture of sluggish expansion in fourth quarter

Tue, 04 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Two barometers of US manufacturing business conditions moved in different directions in November, but if examined in more detail both tell a similar story of modest expansion of manufacturing output so far in the fourth quarter.

Chinese manufacturing operating conditions improve for the first time in 13 months

Mon, 03 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

After adjusting for seasonal factors, the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index PMI posted 50.5 in November, up from 49.5 in October, signalling a marginal improvement of operating conditions in the Chinese manufacturing sector. Moreover, it was the first improvement of operating conditions recorded in 13 months.

Downturn in Eurozone manufacturing extends into sixteenth month, though rate of decline eases

Mon, 03 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The downturn in the Eurozone manufacturing sector eased in November, as the rates of contraction in output, new orders and employment all slowed.

UK manufacturing downturn eases in November

Mon, 03 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Business conditions in the UK manufacturing sector edged closer to stabilisation in November, as levels of new work held broadly steady and production posted a modest increase. However, trends in output were uneven across the sector, with contractions at capital and intermediate goods producers offsetting strong growth in the consumer goods sector.

Signs of Global manufacturing stabilising as PMI hits five-month high

Mon, 03 Dec 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Worldwide manufacturing conditions showed signs of stabilising in November, according to purchasing managers from 10,000 companies across the globe. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI, a survey based barometer of business conditions produced by Markit, rose from 48.8 in October to 49.7 in November, the highest reading for five months and only fractionally below the no-change level of 50.0.

Japanese manufacturing sector contracts at sharpest rate for 19 months in November

Fri, 30 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Operating conditions in the Japanese manufacturing sector continued to worsen in November. The deterioration was driven by falls in output, new orders and employment as the economic climate remained difficult. Amid an uncertain outlook, manufacturers also cut inventory levels and lowered purchasing activity.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [3-7 Dec]: Manufacturing and services PMI data released worldwide

Fri, 30 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The main highlights of the week are the release of manufacturing and services PMI data, the latest monetary policy meetings in Europe, Australian GDP and, as always, US initial jobless claims and non-farm payrolls.

Eurozone retail sales continue to fall sharply towards end of 2012

Thu, 29 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone retail sector remained stuck in a sharp downturn during the penultimate month of 2012, according to Markit’s PMI data. Sales fell for the thirteenth consecutive month, and remained well below the level seen one year earlier.

UK retailers report upturn in sales, but sustained recovery looks some way off

Thu, 29 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

UK consumers appear to be in spending mode in the lead up to Christmas, though households are likely to act cautiously in relation to non-essential spending for some time to come. It is hard to believe that any sustainable and robust improvement in consumer spending is likely until unemployment falls further, wage growth picks up and lending to households improves. Recent data particularly suggest that the latter shows no signs of perking up despite the Funding for Lending scheme.

US economy grows faster than first thought in third quarter

Thu, 29 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The US economy grew faster than previously thought in the third quarter, but the pace of expansion is set to be the best we will see for a while. Austerity measures to be introduced in 2013 are set to dampen some of the key factors that have helped boost the economy so far this year.

UK: Payback likely after summer GDP growth surge

Tue, 27 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The strong bounce in the UK economy in the third quarter was confirmed by the updated estimate of gross domestic product (GDP), but if anything the details in the new data further highlight the temporary nature of the upturn. Payback is likely in the fourth quarter, with the country potentially facing a slide back into contraction.

Daily Economic Overview [27 Nov]: Gloomy OECD outlook offsets brighter US economic data

Tue, 27 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The FTSE All World equity index has nudged lower for a second successive session so far on Tuesday. Having hit a 13-session high on Friday to take last week’s gain to 3.8%, equities have so far fallen 0.2% this week on unease regarding the global economic outlook. Investors in Asia remain especially nervous about the US ‘fiscal cliff’. However, an agreement on the Greek debt deal and some brighter news on the US economy have at least helped divert attention away from a downward revision to the global economic outlook from the OECD in its biannual forecast.

Policymakers encouraged to act as OECD presents gloomier global outlook

Tue, 27 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The OECD revised down its global growth forecast in its latest economic outlook, presenting a gloomy perspective on future prospects, particularly for the developed world. The organisation urged policymakers to consider further policy easing in the face of downside risks to its outlook, with the Eurozone once again highlighted as the key threat to the global economy.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [26-30 Nov]: US set for upward revision to growth but Eurozone to see record jobless

Fri, 23 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The week looks set to bring some brighter news on the US economy, with third quarter annualised gross domestic product growth likely to be revised up from the initial estimate of 2.0%. Recent indicators have shown the US economy to be faring better than previously thought in the three months to September, with the consumer in particular likely to have helped drive stronger growth.

China flash manufacturing PMI hits 13-month high in November

Thu, 22 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Further signs of China’s slowdown having bottomed out were provided by purchasing managers reporting a return to expansion for the manufacturing sector in November, led by stronger growth of exports.

Eurozone sees ongoing steep decline as services suffers worst month since mid-2009

Thu, 22 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index was little-changed in November according to the flash estimate, up fractionally from 45.7 in October to 45.8. October’s reading had been the lowest since June 2009 and, for the fourth quarter of 2012 so far, PMI data suggest the strongest contraction of output since the second quarter of 2009.

Daily Economic Overview [22 Nov]: Risk appetite fuelled by upturns in US and Chinese PMI surveys

Thu, 22 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Signs of faster manufacturing growth in China and the US helped lift equities on Thursday, countering grim news on the health of the Eurozone economy. Upturns in the manufacturing PMI surveys added weight to the views that China’s economic slowdown bottomed-out in the third quarter and that economic growth in the US has accelerated in the fourth quarter.

UK government borrowing rises far higher than expected in October

Wed, 21 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Government borrowing came far higher than expected in October, exceeding even the most pessimistic forecast among economists polled by Reuters. At £8.6bn, the deficit was some £2.7bn higher than the £5.9bn shortfall seen in October 2011 and was one of the largest year-on-year increases seen over the past three years.

U.S. manufacturing growth strengthens to five-month high in November

Wed, 21 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) signalled the strongest improvement in U.S. manufacturing business conditions for five months in November. The preliminary ‘flash’ PMI reading, which is based on around 85% of usual monthly replies, rose to 52.4 from 51.0 in October to indicate a moderate manufacturing expansion overall.

Daily Economic Overview [21 Nov]: Equities rally on brighter news on US economy

Wed, 21 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The FTSE All World share price index is up for the third day in a row on Wednesday, albeit managing only a modest gain of 0.1% as investors remain generally cautious about the outlook for the US economy and the Eurozone debt crisis.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [19-23 Nov]: Flash PMIs to give guidance on global economic trends in November

Fri, 16 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The key releases for the week will be the flash PMIs, which will give clues as to whether the global economy continued to weaken in November. The surveys signalled an easing in the pace of global economic growth in October to one of the slowest seen since the recovery began in mid-2009.

Storm-hit U.S. manufacturing contracts at fastest rate for over three years

Fri, 16 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Official data confirm the message from surveys that the underlying trend in the US industrial sector is one of stagnation at the start of the fourth quarter, and weakness looks set to persist throughout the fourth quarter and possibly into next year as well. As a result, the economy will be reliant on consumer spending to sustain the recovery, but without help from manufacturing and exports, growth looks set to remain disappointingly weak.

Falling retail sales add to signs of UK economic downturn in fourth quarter

Thu, 15 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

A steep fall in retail sales in October represents a disappointing start to the fourth quarter and adds to evidence that, like the British summer, the return to growth seen in the third quarter will prove disappointingly brief.

Eurozone enters new recession

Thu, 15 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The eurozone slid back in to recession in the third quarter, with gross domestic product falling 0.1%, down for the second successive month after a 0.2% decline in the second quarter.

Daily Economic Overview [15 Nov]: Equities extend their losing streak as eurozone slips into a new recession

Thu, 15 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The FTSE All World share price index is down to its lowest since 3rd August, dropping 0.2%. The index has fallen in each of the past seven sessions, slumping some 4.1%. Of the major bourses, only Tokyo has seen an increase, linked to improved prospects for the country’s exports following a 2% fall in the yen over the past two days.

UK unemployment falls to 7.8%, but signs of job market cooling appear

Wed, 14 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The official labour market data show that employment continued to rise over the summer, but also suggest that the hiring trend is weakening. The data therefore add to recent signs from business surveys that growing uncertainty about the economic outlook is causing increasing numbers of firms to retrench and focus on cost cutting.

Eurozone industry sees steepest slump for over four years

Wed, 14 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Industrial production fell 2.5% across the eurozone in September, considerably larger than analysts' estimates of a 1.9% decline and the largest fall since January 2009. The data add to evidence that the eurozone economy is heading back into recession as deteriorating economic conditions spread from deficit-fighting countries to previously robust-growing countries such as Germany.

UK inflation jumps to five-month high in October

Tue, 13 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

UK inflation jumped higher in October, and the expectation of further price hikes in coming months suggests that the rising cost of living will continue to act as a drag on economic growth. The Bank of England may revise down its growth projections, which will in turn raise the perceived need for further stimulus.

Monthly Economic Overview: Global economy sees weak start to fourth quarter as new recessions loom in the Eurozone and Japan

Tue, 13 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The global PMI fell from a six-month high of 52.4 in September to 51.3 in October, one of the lowest readings since the end of the 2008-09 recession. Manufacturing led the downturn, with output falling for a fifth straight month. Although the rate of decline eased over the month, the sector is still undergoing the steepest downturn since the height of the financial crisis. Services, meanwhile, continued to see only modest growth.

Daily Economic Overview [13 Nov]: Equities rally and risk appetite gains ground, despite downbeat economic data

Tue, 13 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Global equities are showing signs of finding a floor on Tuesday after dropping 2.7% over the previous four sessions. Having fallen further to hit a two-month low earlier in the day as markets slumped across Asia, the FTSE All World share price index is up 0.2% so far as US and continental European markets gain ground, albeit somewhat tentatively, and led by industrials.

Global business confidence hits post-crisis low

Mon, 12 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Worldwide business confidence has fallen to its lowest since the global economy pulled out of the recession of 2008-09. The Markit Global Business Outlook Survey of 11,000 companies worldwide shows that optimism dropped in October to its lowest since global data were first available in October 2009.

Japan: Heightened recession risk as economy enters new downturn

Mon, 12 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Japan's economy shrank by 0.9% in the third quarter, adding to signs that the global economy continued to weaken and raising the possibility that the world’s third largest economy is sliding back into recession. The contraction was the steepest since the first quarter of 2009, with the exception of the 2.1% decline seen in the first quarter of 2011 following the country’s earthquake and tsunami.

Rising exports help drive UK trade deficit lower

Fri, 09 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK’s trade deficit narrowed in September due to rising exports and falling imports. The data add to the view that the economy enjoyed something of a bumper third quarter, during which GDP is estimated to have risen 1.0%. However, survey data suggest the improvement will prove short-lived, with weak demand in struggling regions around the world causing exports to have weakened again at the start of the fourth quarter, acting as a drag on the economy.

China: Economic growth indicators pick up in October and inflation cools

Fri, 09 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The pace of economic growth looks set to accelerate in China during the fourth quarter, after encouraging signs of upturns in industrial production and retail sales in October. Having slipped to a three-and-a-half-year low of 7.4% in the third quarter, growth of gross domestic product (GDP) is on course to revive as manufacturing and domestic consumption both perk up. At the same time, inflationary pressures continued to cool, with consumer prices rising at the weakest rate for almost three years.

Daily Economic Overview [9 Nov]: China growth revival and brighter US consumer mood drives market rally

Fri, 09 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The FTSE All World share price index is up 0.1% so far on Friday, having collapsed by 2.4% over the previous two sessions on mounting worries about the global economy. However, sentiment is being boosted by news that the Chinese economy may show stronger growth in the fourth quarter, and that US consumer confidence has hit the highest for over five years.

More signs of Eurozone ‘core’ downturn as German and French exports fall

Thu, 08 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

More signs of a gathering downturn in the Eurozone’s two largest economies have appeared, with exports falling in both Germany and France during September.

Bank of England holds policy amid growing uncertainties

Thu, 08 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Bank of England left policy unchanged at its November meeting, holding interest rates at the all-time low of 0.5% and leaving its quantitative easing programme unchanged at £375 billion. The lack of any decision probably not only reflects uncertainty about the health of the economy, but also doubts about the effectiveness of policy even if more stimulus was considered appropriate.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [12-16 Nov]: GDP data likely to add to global growth worries

Thu, 08 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Further insight into the health of the global economy in the third quarter will be provided by first estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for Japan, Germany, France and Italy.

Daily Economic Overview [8 Nov]: Global markets fall on economic outlook worries, but ECB and Bank of England leave policy unchanged

Thu, 08 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Stock markets are extending their losses, having fallen sharply on Wednesday as worries moved from the US elections towards worries about the US fiscal cliff, euro area growth concerns and the uncertainties surrounding the impending handover of power in China. The FTSE All World share price index is down 0.5% so far on Thursday, having suffered a 1.4% decline on Wednesday.

German manufacturing output hit by slump in orders

Wed, 07 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Increasing signs are appearing that German industry is being hit hard by the ongoing crisis in the Eurozone and waning demand in other key export markets, with official data now corroborating the survey evidence to indicate that the country is at risk of sliding back into contraction in the fourth quarter.

Foodstuffs, pharmaceuticals, software and non-bank financial services defy European downturn in October

Wed, 07 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The latest detailed sector PMI data for Europe indicated further widespread declines in activity in October. However, six sectors bucked the trend, registering either output growth or a stabilisation since September.

Eurozone downturn deepens at start of Q4 2012, as output continues to contract across the big-four economies

Tue, 06 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The downturn in the Eurozone economy deepened at the start of Q4 2012, with the combined output of the manufacturing and service sectors falling at the fastest pace since June 2009. The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell to 45.7 in October, down from 46.1 in September and the earlier flash estimate of 45.8. Overall activity has now fallen for nine straight months.

Manufacturing adds to signs of UK economic weakness after summer growth surge

Tue, 06 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

UK factory output barely rose in September and energy production slumped, according to the Office for National Statistics, adding to evidence that the country risks sliding back into another downturn after the temporary growth surge enjoyed in the summer.

German manufacturing downturn gathers pace as orders fall more than expected

Tue, 06 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Orders placed at German manufacturing firms fell 3.3% in September, far more than economists had been expecting and highlighting how German producers are particularly suffering with slumping demand from euro area neighbours. Economists had been expecting a mere 0.5% decline, according to a poll by Reuters.

Daily Economic Overview [6 Nov]: Global markets rally but worries prevail on economic outlook

Tue, 06 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The FTSE All World share price index is up 0.7% so far on Tuesday, albeit in low trading volumes as the US goes to the polls, staging the first rally since last Thursday. The improvement comes despite falls in Asian markets, with the London FTSE All Share and the Euro Stoxx 50 index both up 0.7%, while the S&P500 has so far gained a full 1.0%.

UK PMIs highlight risk of renewed economic downturn in fourth quarter

Mon, 05 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK economy showed signs of renewed weakness at the start of the fourth quarter, according to the PMI surveys. The All-Sector PMI, a weighted average from the output and business activity indices from the services, manufacturing and construction surveys fell from 51.0 in September to 49.7 in October, the second-lowest reading since April 2009 (the lowest having been in July).

ISM surveys point to slower US GDP growth in October, but hiring picks up

Mon, 05 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

US economic growth slowed sharply at the start of the fourth quarter, according to the ISM business surveys. Combined with the disruption from Hurricane Sandy, which is set to hit the economy in November, gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter is likely to come in substantially below the 2.0% annualised pace seen in the third quarter.

Daily Economic Overview: Global equities slide as weak service sector PMIs cause market jitters

Mon, 05 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The FTSE All World share price index is down for a second successive session on Monday, dropping 0.4% after a similar sized fall on Friday, as investors worry about the global economic outlook.

Eurozone manufacturing downturn gathers pace at start of Q4

Fri, 02 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The downturn in the Eurozone manufacturing sector extended into a fifteenth successive month in October, as domestic market conditions remained subdued and intra and extra-Eurozone trade flows deteriorated further.

Chinese manufacturing operating conditions deteriorate marginally in October

Thu, 01 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

October data signalled a fall in Chinese manufacturing output for the third consecutive month, albeit at a modest pace as new orders rose for the first time in a year. Purchasing activity also expanded slightly, but stocks of pre- and post-production goods continued to fall.

Downturn in UK manufacturing accelerates at start of Q4 2012

Thu, 01 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK manufacturing sector saw overall operating conditions deteriorate for the sixth successive month in October. Companies continued to face a combination of declining export sales, weaker domestic demand and rising cost pressures.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [5-9 Nov]: U.S. presidential election dominates week

Thu, 01 Nov 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Services PMIs, interest rate decisions in both the UK and Eurozone and the monthly ‘data dump’ from China are the main economic releases of the week, which will no doubt be overshadowed by the US presidential election.

One-in-five UK workers earn less than 'Living Wage'

Mon, 29 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Research commissioned by KPMG from Markit suggests that an estimated one-in-five workers across the UK are earning below the Living Wage, an hourly rate of pay set independently and updated annually. The Living Wage is calculated according to the basic cost of living in the UK, and employers choose to pay it on a voluntary basis.

Consumers drive acceleration in US economic growth

Fri, 26 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Consumer spending helped drive an acceleration of US economic growth in the third quarter, but falling business investment and exports fuel worries about the sustainability of growth in coming months. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualised rate of 2.0% in the third quarter, according to the Commerce Department, up from 1.3% in the second quarter.

UK economy rebounds in third quarter, but strong growth not set to last

Thu, 25 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK economy grew 1.0% in the third quarter, rebounding from a 0.4% decline in the second quarter, and enjoying the strongest quarterly expansion for five years.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [29 Oct - 2 Nov]: US data in focus in lead up to election, while PMIs provide insight into global manufacturing

Thu, 25 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The most important release in a crowded week of economic news will be the US non-farm payroll report on Friday. The proximity to the US elections and focus from the Federal Reserve that has pledged potentially unlimited quantitative easing until employment growth is satisfactorily robust will make the report a closely watched release.

Daily Economic Overview: Sterling buoyed by UK’s rise from recession, but global equities remain subdued due to weak corporate earnings

Thu, 25 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The FTSE All World share price index is broadly flat for a second successive session so far on Thursday, with a 0.1% rise countering a fall of similar magnitude on Wednesday.

China flash PMI at three-month high in October as downturn eases

Wed, 24 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Purchasing managers reported an easing in the rate of decline of manufacturing output and new orders in October, suggesting China’s economic growth rate could revive in the fourth quarter. However, companies also noted a renewed upturn in price pressures and an ongoing fall in employment, as firms adjusted to weaker global demand.

Eurozone downturn deepens at start of fourth quarter as PMI hits 40-month low

Wed, 24 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone sank further into decline at the start of the fourth quarter, with the combined output of the manufacturing and service sectors dropping at the fastest rate since June 2009. The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell for a third successive month, down from 46.1 in September to 45.8 in October, according to the preliminary ‘flash’ reading.

Global manufacturing weakness persists in October

Wed, 24 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Flash manufacturing PMIs – Markit’s survey-based indicators of business conditions – remained worryingly weak in October, providing scant evidence to suggest that global growth will accelerate from the three-year low seen in the third quarter.

Daily Economic Overview: Euro falls and equity markets wobble as surveys raise growth worries

Wed, 24 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The FTSE All World share price index is broadly unchanged on Wednesday, dropping marginally to reach its lowest since 10th September, as analysts remain generally downbeat on the global economy. Weak business surveys at the start of the fourth quarter suggest current growth forecasts may need to be revised down.

Cataluña downturn continues, but region outperforms Spanish average throughout much of 2012

Fri, 19 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Cataluña, whose economy is the largest of any region in Spain and is comparable in size to those of Greece and Portugal, experienced a further reduction in output during September. The latest fall was slightly slower than the average for the Spanish economy as a whole, however, as has been the case throughout much of 2012-to-date.

UK government borrowing less than previously thought so far this year

Fri, 19 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The government received some welcome news in the form of lower than previously thought borrowing figures over the first six months of the current financial year. However, weak economic growth and higher than expected social security payment, largely due to high unemployment, mean the government still looks unlikely to meet its target for the year.

Record retail sales add to signs of UK economic rebound

Thu, 18 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Retail sales rose 0.4% September, according to the latest official data for the Office for National Statistics. The rise came after a 0.1% drop in sales in August and was stronger than analysts' average expectations. The improvement also pushed the volume of sales to the highest ever recorded.

Chinese economic growth slows in third quarter

Thu, 18 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

China’s economic growth has slowed to the weakest since the start of 2009, though still looks on target to meet the government’s target for the year.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [22-26 October]: US and UK see first estimates of third quarter GDP, while PMIs give first insight into global trends in October

Thu, 18 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The week sees a stream of economic data releases which could prove important for policymaking, including initial estimates of third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) for the US and the UK, as well as flash PMI surveys for China, the euro area and the US.

Daily Economic Overview: Risk appetite grows amid signs of China bottoming-out and euro hopes

Thu, 18 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Risk appetite continued to build on Thursday on the back of improved sentiment about global economic growth. The FTSE All World share price index is up 0.2% so far, heading for its fourth consecutive daily increase and at its highest since mid-September. The index has risen 2.6% this week, driven higher by better than expected news on the US economy, signs that the worst may be over in terms of China’s economic slowdown and encouraging news from the Eurozone.

UK jobless rate falls to 7.9%

Wed, 17 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK labour market continues to improve, with the unemployment rate falling to its lowest for over a year and employment hitting a record high. The labour market is an area where the business surveys and official data have generally agreed with each other. The concern is that the signal from the surveys has now turned from showing strong growth to a situation where companies are now cutting staff due to weak sales and uncertainty about the outlook, suggesting the good news on employment may fade as we move towards the end of the year.

UK inflation drops to near three-year low, but looks set to rise again

Tue, 16 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

UK inflation fell to its lowest in almost three years in September, dropping after energy price hikes last year fell out of the year-on-year comparisons. However, the spectre of further energy price rises and uncertainty over food prices means policymakers cannot rely on inflation falling further in coming months.

US industry moves into decline, inflation rises

Tue, 16 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The US industrial sector moved into decline over the third quarter for the first time in three years, despite a stronger than expected rise in production in September. A rise in inflation to 2.0% will therefore be of little concern to policymakers, whose focus will remain firmly planted on reviving economic growth and boosting job creation.

Daily Economic Overview: Equities surge higher on brighter economic prospects

Tue, 16 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The FTSE All World share price index is up 1.0% so far on Tuesday, building on a late rally on Monday which saw equities finish 0.4% higher.

US retail sales beat expectations

Mon, 15 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The news flow on the US economy continues to surprise on the upside, with retail sales reviving after a lull earlier in the year. However, we are seeing signs of a divergence between consumers and businesses. The good news generally seems to be associated with the consumer, but business – especially manufacturing – seems to be in the midst of a steepening downturn. While the consumer may therefore help boost GDP in the third quarter, the gain is likely to be offset to some extent by weak production.

Daily Economic Overview: Equities steady as growth worries in Asia are offset by better than expected news on US consumers

Mon, 15 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The FTSE All World share price index is broadly flat so far on Monday, as is the US S&P 500, having both fallen by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively on Friday. Lingering worries about global economic growth arising from weak data out of China and Japan are being balanced by better than anticipated growth of retail sales in the US.

Monthly Economic Overview: Hopes pinned on policymakers’ stimulus response as global economic growth remains worryingly weak in September

Fri, 12 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The global PMI rose from 50.9 in August to a six-month high of 52.5 in September. However, at 51.7, the average for Q3 was little changed on the three-year low average of 51.6 seen in Q2, a level roughly consistent with annual global GDP growth of 2%. Services growth accelerated, thanks to a spike in the US series. The manufacturing output index rose marginally but remained firmly in sub-50 contraction territory.

UK construction sector sees accelerating downturn in August

Fri, 12 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK construction industry fell in August and looks likely to have acted as a drag on GDP in the third quarter, though perhaps less so than in the first half of the year. The total output of the construction industry fell 11.6% on a year ago in August. That was the fastest rate of decline seen in the current downturn, with the exception of the 14.0% drop recorded in June when activity was disrupted by extra holidays for The Queen's Jubilee.

Eurozone industrial production rises unexpectedly in August

Fri, 12 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Data from the EU official statistics body Eurostat showed euro area industrial production (excluding construction) to have risen 0.6% in August. The rise confounded expectations of a 0.4% fall and comes on the back of a similar 0.6% increase in July.

US consumer mood improves to brightest for five years

Fri, 12 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

US consumers are feeling the most upbeat for five years, according to the latest survey from the University of Michigan. Improved confidence should feed through to higher consumer spending, which in turn should play a key role in boosting the economy and offset some of the negative impact we are currently seeing from the downturn in global trade.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [15-19 October]: Manufacturing-led slowdowns likely to be confirmed in China and the US

Thu, 11 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The week sees updates to GDP in China and industrial production in the US, both of which are likely to have signalled economic slowdowns. However, data for the week are likely to be overshadowed somewhat by the EU leaders’ summit on 18-19 October, which has been preceded by warnings from the likes of the IMF that decision making towards closer financial integration needs to be accelerated.

Falling exports drive US trade deficit higher, acting as drag on economy in Q3

Thu, 11 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The US imported $44.2bn more goods and services than it exported in August, pushing the trade deficit up from $42.5bn in July. The worsening deficit is a concern, particularly as the deterioration was caused by a decline in exports, which fell 1.0% during the month. The decline follows a 1.1% fall in July. Exports of services rose, but exports of goods fell 1.6% for the second month running.

Daily Economic Overview: Equities buoyed by improved risk appetite after upbeat US jobs data

Thu, 11 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Market sentiment is picking up again on Thursday, largely reflecting recent improved news on the US economy. The FTSE All World share price index is on course for its first rise in four sessions, up 0.6% so far on Thursday. Markets have been buoyed by further signs that the US labour market is improving, with new claims for unemployment benefits falling to their lowest for over four years.

Recovery in emerging markets remains elusive in Q3 as sluggish global trade hits growth

Wed, 10 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Emerging market growth continued to moderate in the third quarter of 2012 as sustained expansion in service sector activity was offset by a fall in manufacturing as global demand softened, the HSBC Emerging Markets Index (EMI) shows.

UK industrial picture darkens as output and exports fall in August

Tue, 09 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

A batch of dismal data and a gloomier assessment of the economic outlook have cast a further dark cloud over the UK's economic health, piling pressure on the government to review its fiscal policy and growth strategy. The economy may still pull out of its recession in the third quarter, but a return to contraction in the fourth quarter cannot be ruled out.

IMF paints gloomier picture of global economy

Tue, 09 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The International Monetary Fund has followed the OECD in revising down its global economic growth forecasts for this year. The Eurozone is seen as the main drag on global economic growth, though – like the OECD – the IMF has sunk its knife deeper into the UK’s outlook than any other developed country.

Daily Economic Overview: Equities slide for second session on gloomier economic outlook

Tue, 09 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The FTSE All World share price index is down for a second successive session so far on Tuesday, hit by worries about economic growth. The fall in the FTSE All World would be even larger if Chinese markets had not rallied almost 2% on reports that China’s mainland markets could soon be opened up for foreign investors.

German industrial output drops 0.5% in August but steeper fall likely in September

Mon, 08 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

German industry appears to be have fared better in the summer than the business surveys have suggested, riding the current global economic slowdown surprisingly well compared to other large economies. However, downbeat survey data and a recent downturn in order books suggest the resilience cannot be sustained.

Steep fall in German industrial orders adds to evidence of renewed downturn

Fri, 05 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

A steep decline in German industrial orders adds to a growing body of evidence which suggest the euro zone's largest national economy slipped back into a downturn in the third quarter.

US unemployment rate falls sharply but job creation may slow in Q4

Fri, 05 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Private sector services continued to drive US employment higher in September, helping bring the unemployment rate down to its lowest since January 2009.

Daily Economic Overview: Markets rally on surprise fall in US unemployment

Fri, 05 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The FTSE All World share price index is so far up 0.7% on Friday, buoyed by news of a surprise drop in the rate of unemployment in the US. The increase follows a 0.7% increase on Thursday, which was likewise fuelled by improved sentiment about the US economy. The increase takes global equities 1.9% up on last week’s close and close to the highs seen so far this year. In the US, the S&P500 is close to its highest since January 2008.

Slower falls in output for many EU sectors at end of third quarter

Fri, 5 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The latest detailed sector PMI data for the EU indicated declining levels of activity in 14 out of 22 sectors covered in September. This was the smallest proportion of sectors reporting month-on-month falls in output since March, with the rates of contraction having eased for ten sectors.

Bank of England holds policy but may add stimulus in November

Thu, 04 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Bank of England left policy unchanged at its October meeting, as expected, holding interest rates at the all-time low of 0.5% and leaving its “quantitative easing” asset purchase programme unchanged at £375bn.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [8-12 October]: Eurozone and UK industrial production trends under the spotlight

Thu, 4 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

New data on industrial production and international trade will provide further insights into third quarter GDP trends for a number of key countries next week.

Daily Economic Overview: ECB and Bank of England leave policy unchanged despite deteriorating growth outlook; markets rise on better than expected US data

Thu, 04 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Market sentiment is picking up again on Thursday, largely reflecting recent improved news on the US economy.

UK PMIs signal economic growth trend close to stagnation in third quarter

Wed, 03 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The September PMI surveys add to evidence that the UK economy barely grew in the third quarter. Modest growth of services activity was offset by a slight drop in construction sector output and a steeper decline in manufacturing, according to the PMIs.

Daily Economic Overview: Economic growth worries dampen market nerves despite upturn in US non-manufacturing survey

Wed, 03 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

A flow of generally downbeat economic data have left equity markets on the wane on Wednesday.

Eurozone economic downturn continues in September, despite

Wed, 03 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone economy contracted further at the end of Q3 2012. Business activity and new orders both continued to fall, leading to mounting job losses, while the rate of cost inflation moved higher.

Global economic growth accelerates at end of Q3

Wed, 03 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

September PMI data signalled a modest acceleration in the pace of global economic growth.

Japanese service sector contracts further in September

Wed, 03 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Japanese service providers rounded off a challenging third quarter of 2012 by recording a modest decline in activity and a marginal reduction of incoming new orders in September.

UK BCC survey adds to evidence of economic stagnation in third quarter

Tue, 02 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The British Chambers of Commerce quarterly survey found company cashflow and order book trends to have deteriorated in the third quarter for manufacturing and service sector companies alike.

Daily Economic Overview: Australian central bank cuts rates as Asian manufacturers report steepest downturn for three years

Tue, 02 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The FTSE All World equity index has gained 0.3% so far on Tuesday, up for the second successive session, on news that the Reserve Bank of Australia has added to the recent bout of renewed global monetary policy stimulus, and that Spain appears to be edging closer to requesting a formal bail-out

Eurozone manufacturing downturn eases further

Mon, 01 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

At 46.1 in September, the headline seasonally adjusted Markit Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI posted below the neutral 50.0 mark for the fourteenth successive month. Although the PMI rose to a six-month peak – up from 45.1 in August and above the earlier flash estimate of 46.0 – its average over Q3 2012 as a whole was only 45.1. This was below the prior quarter’s 45.4 and the weakest outcome since Q2 2009.

UK Manufacturing PMI edges lower

Mon, 01 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The downturn in UK manufacturing production extended into its third successive month in September, as order inflows remained lacklustre and job losses continued to mount.

Global PMI rises for first time in five months but remains close to three-year low

Mon, 01 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Global manufacturing conditions continued to deteriorate in September, led by weakness in the Eurozone and a stagnation of global trade flows, which have slowed sharply compared to robust growth earlier in the year. At the same time as demand has deteriorated, manufacturers have been hit by rising costs, boding ill for corporate profits.

Daily Economic Overview: Market mood buoyed by better than expected PMI data, but growth worries persist

Mon, 01 Oct 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The FTSE All World equity index is up 0.8% so far on Monday, buoyed by better than expected economic data from the US and by the results of Spanish bank stress tests on Friday.

Chinese manufacturing output falls at fastest pace since March

Sat, 29 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Data in September signalled a stronger decline in Chinese manufacturing output, as the volume of new orders fell for the eleventh consecutive month. New export orders declined at the sharpest rate in 42 months amid reports of weak international demand, while lower workloads were linked to a fall in backlogs of work.

Further signs of UK recovery appear as service sector enjoys strong July

Fri, 28 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The end of recession is in sight as the latest data on the service sector add to signs that the UK economy rebounded strongly in July after temporary weakness caused by additional public holidays in June.

Week Ahead Economic Overview [1-5 October]: PMIs to provide new insights ahead of policy decisions

Fri, 28 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

A busy week includes global PMI releases plus US non-farm payrolls, as well as monetary policy decisions from the Bank of England and European Central Bank.

Japanese manufacturing output falls sharply

Fri, 28 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Official data form the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed Japan’s manufacturing output falling sharply for a second successive month in August.

UK economic downturn less severe than previously thought

Thu, 27 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK economy contracted less than previously thought in the second quarter, meaning the underlying trend was most likely one of very modest growth, after allowing for the lost working day due to the Jubilee. The second half of the year also looks likely to be substantially better than the first half, although the underlying rate of growth looks set to be modest at best due to the ongoing challenging environment facing households and businesses.

Second quarter US economic growth revised down and data point to further weakness in third quarter

Thu, 27 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Second quarter US gross domestic product growth was revised down from an annualised rate of 1.7% to 1.3%, according to the Commerce Department, and durable goods orders showed the largest fall since January 2009 – the height of the recession

Daily Economic Overview: Equity markets rebound as China liquidity boost and Spanish budget news offset gloomy economic data

Thu, 27 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The FTSE All World equity index is up 0.8% so far on Thursday, set to enjoy its first rise in the past four sessions. Markets are reacting positively to the unveiling of a tough budget from the Spanish government and renewed action by the People’s Bank of China to fight off a credit squeeze.

CBI survey points to ongoing improvement in UK retail sales

Wed, 26 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

UK retailers have become increasingly upbeat in September, according to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey, further adding to evidence that households are benefitting from greater job security and the reduced squeeze on incomes due to lower inflation. A rise from recession seems increasingly likely.

Daily Economic Overview: Global stocks hit by growth worries and tensions in Europe and Asia

Wed, 26 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Renewed worries about the Eurozone debt crisis, tensions between Japan and China and weakening global economic growth has hit risk appetite on Wednesday, driving down equities for a third successive session.

INSEE survey points to steepest French downturn for three years

Tue, 25 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

French businesses reported a deepening downturn in September, suggesting that the economy is contracting at the fastest rate since the first quarter of 2009.

US consumer confidence and house prices both improve

Tue, 25 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

A growing feel-good factor is becoming evident among US consumers, which is being accompanied by increasing signs of a long-awaited improvement in the housing market. The data augur well for consumer spending and the economy in general, and suggest that the US is likely to remain something of a bright spot in an otherwise lacklustre global economic environment, in the short term at least.

Daily Economic Overview: Risk rally reinvigorated as upbeat US data offset Eurozone worries

Tue, 25 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Risk assets are finding favour again on Tuesday as markets brush off downbeat economic data from the Eurozone and instead focus on better-than-expected news from the US.

German IFO survey points to third quarter economic contraction

Mon, 24 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The IFO survey pointed to an accelerating downturn of the German economy in September, contrasting with the upturn seen in the flash PMI, and suggests that the economy contracted in the third quarter. That said, it remains too early to say whether the region’s largest economy will continue to contract in the fourth quarter.

Daily Economic Overview: Oil and equities hit by ongoing global growth worries

Mon, 24 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Equity markets are holding their ground after rising sharply late last week, but disappointing economic data have limited scope for further gains.

Week Ahead Economic Overview: Final GDP estimates for US, UK and France accompanied by updates on US housing market and consumer trends

Fri, 21 Sep 2012 17:00:00 GMT

The week sees some potential interesting developments with updated (so called ‘final’) second quarter GDP estimates for the US, UK and France. No change is expected in the US, but the 0.5% decline in the UK is expected to be revised to a shallower 0.4% downturn while any revision to the French data could have newsworthy interest, as the current estimate is for the French economy to have stagnated over the past three quarters. Any downward revision, which would be more in line with the business surveys, would mark the start of a double-dip recession.

UK public sector deficit up 21.8% in first five months of tax year

Fri, 21 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK public sector deficit rose to the highest ever seen for the month of August as benefits spending surged higher and tax receipts disappointed. So far this year, the deficit is some 21.8% up on the same period of last year, pushing the chances of the government meeting its deficit reduction target further out of reach.

Daily Economic Overview: ‘Risk rally’ hit by downbeat economic data

Thu, 20 Sep 2012 17:00:00 GMT

The recent risk-rally seen following central bank announcements from the US Fed and ECB was hit on Wednesday following a slew of disappointing PMI business surveys. The FTSE All World equity index is down 1.1% so far on Thursday as markets worry about the ability of central banks to counter the weakness of economic growth. Oil and other commodities followed suit, with West Texas Intermediate dropping below $91 per barrel.

Eurozone sees steepest contraction since June 2009 despite downturn easing in Germany

Thu, 20 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell from 46.3 in August to 45.9 in September, according to the preliminary ‘flash’ reading, based on around 85% of usual monthly replies. The index therefore signalled that the private sector economy contracted for the twelfth time in the past 13 months, with the rate of decline accelerating slightly to reach the fastest since June 2009.

UK retail sales fall in August but trend remains one of rising spend

Thu, 20 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Despite a fall in August, which is thought to have been largely caused by the Olympics, UK retail sales have exhibited a surprisingly robust growth trend over the summer months, with retailers enjoying one of the best trading periods seen over the past three years. The improvement can be attributed to strong job creation and lower inflation, but on ongoing squeeze on incomes in coming months, plus still high unemployment, is likely to limit spending growth.

US, Eurozone and China PMIs point to weakest quarter for three years

Thu, 20 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Flash manufacturing PMIs – Markit’s survey-based indicators of business conditions – add to evidence that global economic growth deteriorated in the third quarter, showing the weakest trends for at least three years despite some signs of easing in September.

UK inflation eases despite higher fuel prices but squeeze on incomes persists

Tue, 18 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Good news as UK inflation fell in August, as expected, helping to alleviate the squeeze on incomes that has plagued households over the past two years. However, incomes continue to fall in real terms due to weak pay growth, and rising oil and food prices have the potential to keep inflation higher than anticipated by policymakers over the next few months. While the damaging effect on consumer spending is not likely to be anything like as marked as late last year, the persistence of high inflation and weak pay growth means consumer spending could well disappoint in the final few months of 2012.

Daily Economic Overview: Risk rally loses steam as equities and oil fall on economy worries

Tue, 18 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Having risen to its highest since July of last year on growing risk appetite from central bank action, the FTSE All World equity index is on course for a second successive daily decline on Tuesday, having now fallen 0.7% from Friday’s close.

Daily Economic Overview: “Bernanke rally” pushes global equity markets to highest since July 2011, but data add to US growth worries

Fri, 14 Sep 2012 18:00:00 GMT

Equities have continued to rally on Friday, rising across the globe to push the FTSE All World equity index to its highest since July of last year, up 1.7% so far.

Week Ahead Economic Overview: Flash PMIs to add insight into third quarter global growth trends

Fri, 14 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

After the ECB’s well-received plans to intervene and bring down borrowing costs for troubled Eurozone governments, the flash PMIs will provide insight into whether the improvement in market sentiment has started to feed through to the real economy.

UK construction data revisions mean UK double-dip downturn shallower than previously thought

Fri, 14 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK construction sector remained mired in a steep downturn at the start of the third quarter, according to official data, but the better news is that the sector saw a smaller than previously thought downturn in the second quarter, which will cause GDP to be revised up

US factory output fall adds to signs of economic slowdown in third quarter

Fri, 14 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

US factory output fell 0.7% in August as softer global demand continued to hit the manufacturing sector. The weakness of factory output was compounded by Hurricane Isaac disrupting oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico. With mining output consequently dropping 1.8% on top of the 0.7% fall in factory output, total industrial production fell 1.2% in August, its steepest fall since March 2009.

Higher gasoline prices drive increase in US inflation and retail sales

Fri, 14 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

US retail sales rose more than expected in July, though the increase largely reflected higher gasoline prices, which in turn pushed up the annual rate of consumer price inflation. The underlying trend remained one of only modest growth of consumer spending, highlighting how the economy has weakened further going into the third quarter.

Fed acts to stimulate labour market growth

Thu, 13 Sep 2012 18:00:00 GMT

Equities are rising in an initial burst of approval following the Federal Reserve’s FOMC decision to sanction further asset purchases at its September meeting.

US factory prices show largest rise in three years

Thu, 13 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Today's producer price data show higher oil and food prices starting to hit US factories, boding ill for inflation - and potentially economic growth as well - in coming months. Producer prices rose 1.7% in August, the largest rise since June 2009. The surge pushed the annual rate of increase up to 2.0% from 0.5% in July, signalling the steepest annual rate of increase since March.

Daily Economic Overview: German court ruling on ESM boosts equities and the euro

Wed, 12 Sep 2012 17:00:00 GMT

The main news of the day was the decision by the German Constitutional Court to allow the European Stability Mechanism to be ratified by Germany, the only country to have so far not ratified the enlarged bail-out fund.

UK employment boom continues with near-record rise in payrolls

Wed, 12 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK economy appears to be in rude health, creating a near-record increase in jobs over the summer, led by the private sector taking on staff in increasing numbers. The data are in line with the message from the business surveys that the economy is by no means in another downturn, as indicated by official economic growth data, but enjoyed a strong expansion so far this year.

UK trade deficit narrows as exports rebound, but trend remains weak

Tue, 11 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

A rebound in UK trade in July is a relief after June’s data had shown the worst trade balance on record, and adds to hopes that the economy pulled out of its double-dip recession in the third quarter.

Daily Economic Overview: Trade data highlight global growth slowdown

Tue, 11 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Equity markets are holding their ground after rising sharply late last week, but disappointing economic data have limited scope for further gains.

China: Official data add to survey evidence of third quarter economic slowdown

Mon, 10 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Official data form China’s National Bureau of Statistics confirm early signs from business surveys that the rate of economic growth in the world’s second-largest economy continued to weaken in the third quarter.

Europe: Output continues to fall in most sectors, but signs of downturn slowing

Mon, 10 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The latest detailed sector PMI data for the EU signalled falling output in 18 of the 22 sectors covered in August. Although still signalling an ongoing widespread downturn in business activity, August represents an improvement on the 20 sectors that saw falling output in July.

Daily Economic Overview: Equity rally stalls as China slowdown adds to global growth worries

Mon, 10 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Equity markets are holding their ground after rising sharply late last week, but disappointing economic data have limited scope for further gains.

End of UK double-dip recession in sight after largest rise in industrial production for 25 years

Fri, 07 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

UK industry rebounded strongly in July, enjoying the strongest growth for 25 years. While a huge relief that the economy is on course to rise from its double recession, the economy faces a huge challenge for growth to be sustained in coming months as much of the improvement simply reflects a temporary rebound from weakness in June caused by additional holidays. Somewhat oddly, the data are not adjusted to account for the number of working days in each month.

UK producer price inflation shows largest jump since January 2011

Fri, 07 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Prices paid by manufacturers for their inputs rose 1.4% on a year ago in August, having fallen 2.4% in July. August was the first time since May that prices have been higher than a year earlier rate of increase for five months.

Week Ahead [10-14 September]: All eyes on German lawmakers, FOMC and China

Fri, 07 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

After the market euphoria that followed the ECB’s announcement on Thursday to buy unlimited government bonds for troubled Eurozone nations, focus moves to the next hurdle in the form of the Germany constitutional court ruling on Wednesday 12 September on the legality of the region’s new permanent bail-out fund, the ESM.

Weak US employment growth increases chance of further Fed action

Fri, 07 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Another disappointing month of US employment growth raises the prospect of further action from the Fed, meaning next Thursday's FOMC decision looks set to be a close call.

Daily Economic Overview: Market rally continues but ECB euphoria dented by US payroll report

Fri, 07 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Global equities are on course to close at their highest level since 3 May as markets continue to rally on Thursday’s announcement that the ECB is willing to intervene in sovereign bond markets to help bring down borrowing costs for troubled governments.

OECD grows gloomier about economic outlook, urges central bank action

Thu, 06 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

New economic forecasts from the OECD paint an increasingly gloomy outlook for the world’s major economies, citing the Eurozone debt crisis as the major headwind. The organisation urges policymakers to take further urgent steps to resolve the region’s crisis and for other central banks to not delay in acting to stimulate growth where possible.

Bank of England holds policy amid uncertainty over economy

Thu, 06 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Bank of England left policy unchanged at its September meeting, also making no announcement after the meeting ended to add to the non-event.

ISM surveys point to economic slowdown

Thu, 06 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Reading behind the headline number from the ISM non-manufacturing suggest that economic growth slowed in August and that the outlook has deteriorated.

Daily Economic Overview: ECB promise of action drives equities high, overshadows gloomier economic outlook

Thu, 06 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Equities are rallying after the ECB revealed plans to intervene in the Eurozone’s troubled bond markets, buying debt to reduce elevated borrowing costs for beleaguered nations such as Italy, Portugal and Spain.

Eurozone economic downturn continues in August

Wed, 05 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone economic output contracted for the seventh successive month in August. At 46.3, down slightly from 46.5 in July, the Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index came in below its earlier flash estimate of 46.6.

August data point to stagnation of Chinese business activity

Wed, 05 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

August’s survey findings showed that business activity (covering manufacturing and services) in China was broadly unchanged since the month before. This was signalled by the HSBC Composite Output Index falling from 51.9 to 49.9 in August.

Daily Economic Overview: Services PMIs add to global growth worries but hopes build for ECB action

Wed, 05 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Global equities have fallen so far again on Wednesday as fears over the global outlook continue to hit market nerves, although leaked reports of the ECB’s plans for bnd buying are providing support.

UK PMIs point to August rebound

Tue, 04 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Markit’s All-Sector PMI rose for the first time in five months in August, rising sharply from July’s 39-month low of 49.5 to reach a four-month high of 52.2.

Daily Economic Overview: Weaker then expected US data offset by surprise uplift in the UK

Tue, 04 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Global equities are losing ground on Tuesday. Recent downbeat data is raising worries about the economic outlook, suggesting that pessimists outweigh the bulls and highlighting concerns that the hoped-for central bank stimulus may be insufficient to drive sustained economic recoveries.

Downturn in UK manufacturing sector eases in August

Mon, 03 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The downturn in the UK manufacturing sector showed signs of easing during August, following a severe contraction in the previous month. The seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS PMI rose to 49.5, from 45.2 in July, a four-month high and only slightly below the 50.0 mark that separates expansion from contraction.

Downturn in Eurozone manufacturing continues in August

Mon, 03 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone manufacturing sector contracted for the thirteenth successive month in August. At 45.1, up from July’s 37-month low of 44.0, the final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in below the earlier flash estimate of 45.3.

Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions worsen at sharpest rate in 41 months

Mon, 03 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

After adjusting for seasonal factors, the HSBC China PMI posted 47.6 in August, down from 49.3 in July, signalling a tenth successive month-on-month deterioration in Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions. Moreover, the latest index reading was the lowest since March 2009.

Daily Economic Overview: Equities climb higher as downbeat PMI data raise stimulus hopes

Mon, 03 Sep 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Global equities are benefitting from improved risk appetite as weak economic data buoy hopes of central bank intervention. However, the upturn is only muted with US markets closed and the key tests for risk-oriented assets will be US data and ECB announcements later in the week.

Japan Manufacturing PMI dips to 16-month low

Fri, 31 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

August PMI data from Markit/JMMA signalled a further decline in manufacturing output, as new business decreased at an accelerated rate. Backlogs of work fell as a result, while jobs growth eased to near-stagnation. Meanwhile, average costs declined at the sharpest rate since November 2009 and companies continued to lower their average tariffs.

Eurozone retail downturn deepens in August

Thu, 30 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone retailers faced a deepening downturn in sales in August, according to PMI data from Markit. Sales fell on a month-on-month basis for the tenth successive month – the second-longest sequence in the survey history – and at a faster rate than in July.

Week Ahead Economic Overview: Euro area crisis back in focus after summer lull

Fri, 24 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

As summer draws to a close, euro area policy makers will again take centre stage in the coming weeks, as concerns about Greece look set to keep investors on edge. Comments from EU leaders will be watched closely by all. The forthcoming week features more economic data releases than of late, although a bank holiday for the UK on Monday means the start of the week is relatively quiet.

HSBC China PMI posts second-lowest reading since March 2009

Thu, 23 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

China’s goods producers recorded a continued deterioration in business conditions during the month, with the headline HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropping from 49.3 to a nine-month low of 47.8 in August. Moreover, the latest index reading was the second-lowest since March 2009.

Downturn in Eurozone economy extends into seventh month

Thu, 23 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index – based on around 85% of usual monthly replies – was broadly unchanged at 46.6 in August, from a final reading of 46.5 in July. The index has now signalled a contraction of the Eurozone private sector for seven successive months.

PMI continues to signal weak US manufacturing expansion in August

Thu, 23 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index continued to signal only a modest improvement in U.S. manufacturing business conditions in August. The preliminary ‘flash’ PMI reading which is based on around 85% of usual monthly replies rose slightly from 51.4 in July to 51.9 and was the third-lowest since the manufacturing recovery was first indicated by the headline index in October 2009.

Monthly Economic Overview: Looking for third quarter global growth uplift after second quarter slowdown

Thu, 16 Aug 2012 14:00:00 GMT

The global PMI rose slightly from June’s three-year low of near-stagnation, but remained at a level consistent with annual worldwide GDP growth of only around 1.5% in July. The upturn was also largely confined to a spike in the ISM’s US non-manufacturing index. Excluding the US, the global economy is contracting at its fastest rate for three years, led down by manufacturing.

Flash PMIs to give fresh insights into global economic growth momentum

Thu, 16 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Flash PMI surveys for August will provide policymakers with an update to the health of the world’s three largest economies.

UK retail gloom lifts as sales rise 0.9% in three months to July

Thu, 16 Aug 2012 11:00:00 GMT

New official data show that UK retail sales have grown much better than thought likely in recent months, further lifting the air of gloom that has hung over the UK economy and raising hopes that the country's slide back into recession was a statistical aberration.

Daily Economic Overview: Equities rally on improved sentiment about economic growth and emerging market stimulus action

Thu, 16 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Global equities are rising to their highest since early-May, reflecting strong rises in both Japan and Europe plus rising markets in the US. The FTSE All World index is up 0.5% so far on Thursday.

Daily Economic Overview: Better than expected US and UK data dampen prospects for central bank stimulus

Wed, 15 Aug 2012 17:00:00 GMT

Global equities are slipping slightly on Wednesday but remain close to three-month highs as economic data from the US and UK has buoyed sentiment about economic growth but dampened expectations of central bank intervention. Better than expected industrial production data in the US have added to signs of economic growth picking up in the third quarter, while the UK saw a surge in job creation in the second quarter.

US industrial production rebound adds to better news on third quarter growth

Wed, 15 Aug 2012 15:00:00 GMT

Faster growth of industrial production in July adds to recent evidence to suggest that the US economy enjoyed a strong start to the third quarter. Alongside a drop in inflation to the weakest since November 2010, the recent data have shown the US to be in much better shape than many had feared. However, the business surveys suggest that the US continues to struggle against the headwind of falling foreign demand, raising question marks over the durability of the July rebound.

UK employment surge drives jobless rate down to 8.0%

Wed, 15 Aug 2012 13:00:00 GMT

The riddle of the UK economy continues, with surging employment growth and falling unemployment contrasting with falling economic output, according to official data. However, there are many signs to suggest that the job market remains weak, despite the improvements in the headline employment and unemployment statistics, and the jobless rate may rise again unless economic growth improves soon.

Spanish unemployment set to rise further amid recession and austerity

Tue, 14 Aug 2012 17:00:00 GMT

The second quarter of 2012 saw the Spanish unemployment rate reach a post-Franco era record of 24.6%, according to the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica (INE). This comes as little surprise given that the rate of unemployment has been above 20% and rising for much of the last two years, but is still a shocking statistic nonetheless. Just less than 5.7 million people are now classed as unemployed in Spain, 30% of which have been unemployed for two years or more.

Daily Economic Overview: Equities rally as global growth fears soothed by Eurozone and US data

Tue, 14 Aug 2012 17:00:00 GMT

Equities are rising, more than making up for Monday’s 0.3% decline, as economic data dispel some of the worst fears about the health of the global economy while keeping alive hopes of central bank intervention to pep growth up further and relieve stressed sovereign debt markets in the Eurozone. The FTSE All World share price index is so far up 0.3% to its highest levels since early May.

Eurozone economy contracts in second quarter

Tue, 14 Aug 2012 13:00:00 GMT

Falling output in the southern Eurozone economies offset rising output in northern countries to cause an overall contraction of the Eurozone economy in the three months to June.

UK inflation shows unwelcome surprise upturn in July

Tue, 14 Aug 2012 13:00:00 GMT

UK inflation ticked higher in July, confounding expectations among many - including the Bank of England - of falling price pressures. The uptick may only be temporary, but persistent high inflation will hurt consumer spending through the squeeze on take-home pay and damages economic recovery hopes.

Daily Economic Overview: Japanese & Greek GDP data add to equity markets’ global growth concerns

Mon, 13 Aug 2012 17:00:00 GMT

Equities are falling as reminders of weak global economic growth spur profit taking, albeit in low volumes of trading. Having rallied late on Friday to finish the day unchanged at its highest since early-May, the FTSE All World share price index is so far down 0.4%, dropping for the first time in seven sessions.

Greece: “Lost decade” looms as economy shrinks to smallest for nine years

Mon, 13 Aug 2012 14:00:00 GMT

Greece’s gross domestic product fell 6.2% compared to a year ago in the second quarter, according to data from the National Statistical Service. The rate of decline eased compared to 6.5% in the first quarter and 7.4% in the final quarter of last year, suggesting the worst may be over in terms of the pace of contraction. However, in real terms (after allowing for price changes) the Greek economy is now at its smallest since mid-2003.

Construction revisions dispel some of the UK economic gloom

Fri, 10 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Some brighter news on the UK economy as construction output fell less than initially thought in the second quarter. Data from the Office for National Statistics showed construction work (in volume terms) dropping 3.9% in the second quarter. The decline is smaller than the initial estimate of a 5.2% decline that was used in the calculation of the first estimate of gross domestic product. Along with a smaller than previously first thought drop in industrial production in the second quarter, the revision to construction output means GDP looks to have fallen 0.5% instead of the 0.7% drop originally estimated.

Week ahead economic calendar [13 - 17 August]: Official data likely to confirm new Eurozone downturn

Fri, 10 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The economic calendar for the week ahead is likely to bring news of a new downturn in the Eurozone. The single currency area had avoided falling into a double-dip recession by the narrowest of margins by recording flat gross domestic product in the first quarter following a 0.3% decline in the final three months of last year. However, the economic data flow has deteriorated markedly over the summer with Markit’s PMI, for example, registering the steepest downturn for three years in the second quarter. GDP is likely to have fallen by at least 0.3%.

China’s export trend weakest since late-2009

Fri, 10 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

China’s trade surplus shrank in July due to a steep slowing in growth of exports. At $25.1bn, the trade surplus dropped from $31.7bn and was $5bn, or 17%, lower than July of last year.

Daily Economic Overview: Global growth worries resurface as China’s exports suffer

Fri, 10 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Profit-taking looks set to push the FTSE All World share price index down for the first time in six sessions on Friday, to close a generally upbeat week. The index is down 0.3% so far, having closed higher on Thursday to end 3.5% up on the closing low seen on 2 August.

China’s economy shows further signs of cooling in July

Thu, 09 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

China’s economy showed further signs of slowing at the start of the third quarter, according to official data showing industrial production growing at the slowest rate since early-2009. Correspondingly, price pressures moderated, with consumer price inflation easing to the weakest for two-and-a-half years.

UK trade deficit hits record high as exports slump

Thu, 09 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Today's UK trade data showed the trade deficit widening to a record high in June as goods exports fell to a far greater extent than imports.

Daily Economic Overview: China slowdown boosts Beijing policy easing hopes

Thu, 09 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Weaker than expected economic data from China have buoyed hopes that the People’s Bank of China will do more to prop up the world’s second-largest economy, helping to buoy risk appetite on Thursday. However, rising share prices in Asia have not fed through to gains in Europe, and the US has opened flat.

Bank of England lowers its growth forecast, again

Wed, 08 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

As expected, the Bank of England has once again had to revise down its forecast for economic growth for 2012. Instead of growing 0.8% this year, as expected back in May, the central projection seems to indicate that the Bank no longer expects the economy to grow over this year as a whole, with the strong possibility of a modest contraction. Just a year ago, the central projection for 2012 was for growth of around 2%.

German industry suffers ongoing recession as production and exports fall

Wed, 08 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

German industry saw falling levels of industrial production, imports and exports in June, highlighting the ongoing struggles facing the euro zone’s largest national economy.

Daily Economic Overview: Central bank gloom casts shadow over markets

Wed, 08 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Nervousness about economic growth has caused equities to pull back from Tuesday’s closing high, meaning the FTSE All World share price index is on course to fall for the first time in four sessions. However, so far the index is down just 0.1%, having surged 3.2% over the previous three sessions, and remains at a level not previously seen since early May.

Olympics boost evident as drink and media companies buck trend of falling business activity in July

Tue, 07 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The latest detailed sector PMI data for the EU signalled an ongoing broad downturn in July, with 20 out of 22 sectors reporting falling output. The only sector to record rising output was Beverages, on the back of a boost to new orders in June, with drink manufacturers enjoying rising sales in recent months due in part to the Olympics. The only other sector to not see a drop in business activity was Media, with the Olympics again providing a short-term boost.

Deepening downturn in EU autos sector at odds with July share price rally

Tue, 07 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Europe’s auto industry has reported a deepening downturn at the start of the third quarter, suggesting the rally in sector share prices seen in July may soon lose its legs.

Second quarter fall in Italian GDP adds to 2012 downturn woe

Tue, 07 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Italian economy continued to shrink at a rapid pace in the second quarter, with a further decline likely in the third quarter according to business surveys. The government’s projection of a 1.2% drop in economic output this year now looks very optimistic, with the economy likely to shrink by perhaps twice as much unless there is a marked turnaround in coming months.

UK production hit by Jubilee holiday, but fall less severe than expected

Tue, 07 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Industrial production fell sharply in June, as expected, though the decline was less steep than had generally been feared. The smaller than expected drop in production means the second quarter Gross Domestic Product estimate may get revised up, but will still show a deepening recession, and survey data suggest prospects look poor for the third quarter.

Daily Economic Overview: Equity market rally goes on despite downbeat economic data from Europe

Tue, 07 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Global share prices are rallying for a third successive session on Tuesday, underpinned once again primarily by improved sentiment about the European Central Bank’s ability to help ease the Eurozone debt crisis.

Rising trend in new car registrations adds ray of hope to economic gloom

Mon, 06 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The number of new cars registered in the UK is on the rise, growing at the fastest annual rate for just over two years in July. That said, registrations remain about 20% down on pre-crisis levels.

Daily Economic Overview: Markets surge on reviewed assessment of ECB intentions and US jobs rise

Fri, 03 Aug 2012 17:00:00 GMT

Risk appetite is back on Friday, following a reassessment of the initial disappointment that followed Thursday’s policy announcement by the European Central Bank. Sentiment has also been boosted by consensus-beating non-farm payroll numbers in the US, which suggests that fears of a steep US economic downturn have been exaggerated.

US employment shows largest rise for five months, but jobless rate rises

Fri, 03 Aug 2012 16:00:00 GMT

Stronger growth of US non-farm payrolls effectively kills the chances of more aggressive stimulus from the FOMC, for now at least.

UK all-sector PMI hits lowest since April 2009 in disappointing start to third quarter

Fri, 03 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit/CIPS PMI surveys for July collectively signalled the weakest economic performance since April 2009, a downturn which can only in part be attributed to temporary factors.

Week ahead economic calendar [06 – 10 August]: China data and Bank of England Inflation Report eyed for policy clues

Fri, 03 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

After the focus on policy meetings in the US, Eurozone and UK, attention moves to China next week, when the government publish updated statistics on industrial production, inflation, trade, retail sales and investment.

Global growth remains weak as manufacturing downturn continues

Fri, 03 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

At 51.7 in July, the JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index – produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – edged higher from June's recovery low of 50.3, to signal a modest increase in output. The rate of growth was nonetheless one of the weakest seen during the current three-year period of expansion.

Eurozone downturn continues at start of Q3 2012

Fri, 03 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone economy remained in a downturn at the start of Q3 2012. At 46.5 in July, little-changed from 46.4 in June, the Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index signalled a contraction in output for the tenth time in the past 11 months. The headline index came in slightly above the earlier flash estimate of 46.4.

Bank of England pauses for breath

Thu, 02 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Bank of England joined ranks with the US Federal Reserve in keeping monetary policy unchanged in August but, like the Fed, the Bank is likely to be watching the data flow especially closely over the next couple of months to see if further stimulus is needed.

ECB leaves policy unchanged but speaks of possible future action

Thu, 02 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Following intense speculation about the various standard and non-standard policy changes the European Central Bank could make at its August meeting, the ECB disappointed the markets by doing nothing. The lack of action follows similar pauses for breath at the US Fed and Bank of England.

Daily Economic Overview: Markets send signal of disappointment at lack of central bank action

Thu, 02 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Equity markets are falling for a third successive session on Thursday, hit by disappointment at the lack of policy action at Western central banks. The FTSE All World share price index is down just over 1.0% so far, having ended up 0.1% down on Wednesday and dropping 0.2% on Tuesday.

Asian manufacturing downturn deepens as exports suffer largest fall for over three years

Wed, 01 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

July PMI surveys produced by Markit showed the second-steepest downturn in Asian manufacturing for over three years. Companies reported that conditions were deteriorating at a rate not seen since April 2009 with the sole exception of the downturn seen last November, with lower PMI readings for Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea and India.

Eurozone manufacturing recession deepens at start of third quarter

Wed, 01 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The downturn in the Eurozone manufacturing sector gathered momentum at the start of the third quarter. The rates of contraction in output, new orders and employment all accelerated during July. The final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to a 37-month low of 44.0, down from 45.1 in June and below the earlier flash estimate of 44.1.

Global manufacturing downturn gathers pace in July

Wed, 01 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The global manufacturing sector slid further into contraction territory at the start of Q3 2012. At 48.4 in July, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI – a composite index produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – posted its lowest level since June 2009.

Daily Economic Overview: 01 Aug

Wed, 01 Aug 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The FTSE All World share price index is struggling to remain in positive territory again on Wednesday, up just 0.1% so far after ending up losing 0.2% on Tuesday due to a 1.0% fall in the US. Having risen in China, equity markets are floundering again in Europe and the US as investors weigh up whether central banks will act decisively to boost ailing economies in the face of manufacturing PMIs, which showed that global economic conditions continued to deteriorate in July.

Daily Economic Overview: Better US data raise doubts over central bank stimulus

Tue, 31 Jul 2012 17:00:00 GMT

Investors are clinging on to hopes that further central bank action later this week will help revive flagging economies. However, uncertainty remains high, especially as better than expected data from the US has dented expectations among many that the FOMC will vote for additional stimulus.

Japan's export-led manufacturing downturn gathers pace

Tue, 31 Jul 2012 15:00:00 GMT

Official and PMI data are now signalling a steepening downturn of the Japanese manufacturing economy.

Euro area unemployment remains stuck at 11.2%, youth joblessness at 22.4%

Tue, 31 Jul 2012 15:00:00 GMT

Eurozone unemployment remained stuck at a record high of 11.2% in June, while inflation also remained above the European Central Bank’s target at 2.4%. PMI data suggest unemployment will continue to rise, and wide divergences are likely to persist across the single currency area.

UK retail optimism slumps lower in July

Tue, 31 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

UK retailers became gloomier in July, corresponding with other data released on Monday showing ongoing weak demand for consumer credit and a further downturn in the housing market.

UK household lending data point to weak consumer credit growth and ailing housing market

Tue, 31 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Data from the Bank of England showed consumer credit to have risen again in June, but the pace of growth remains very weak by historical standards. Likewise, mortgage approvals were found to have been running at the second-lowest level since early-2009, suggesting that the housing market remains very much in the doldrums.

Eurozone retail sales fall for ninth month running in July

Mon, 30 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone retail downturn continued at the start of the third quarter, according to PMI data from Markit. Sales fell on a month-on-month basis for the ninth successive month – the joint-second longest sequence in the survey history – and at a faster rate than in June.

Week ahead economic calendar [30 Jul - 03 Aug]: PMI and US non-farm payroll releases accompany central bank meetings

Fri, 27 Jul 2012 17:00:00 GMT

Manufacturing and services PMIs, policy setting meetings at the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England plus US non-farm payrolls are the main highlights of the week.

US jobless benefit claims fall closer towards four-year low

Thu, 26 Jul 2012 17:00:00 GMT

Jobless benefit claims numbers provide further encouraging news on the US economy. However, the numbers still point to only a weak labour market improvement in July, suggesting next week's non-farm report will show a fourth month of sub-100,000 job creation - a rate insufficient to keep pace with population growth and therefore raising the risk of the unemployment rate moving up again.

US durable goods order show better than expected rise for second month in a row, but underlying trend remains weak

Thu, 26 Jul 2012 17:00:00 GMT

Data on orders for long-lasting goods produced in the US showed a surprisingly strong increase for the second month running in June. The numbers suggest that demand continued to fall in the second quarter as a whole, and the trend remains far weaker than the impressive growth seen at the start of the year. Nevertheless, the underlying trend was less negative than seen in the first quarter as a whole, and demand is showing good momentum as we move into the second half of the year.

Daily Economic Overview: Market mood boosted by waning euro fears and hopes of Fed stimulus

Thu, 26 Jul 2012 17:00:00 GMT

Having fallen in each of the past four sessions, equities are rallying strongly, with the FTSE All World index up 1.7% so far on Thursday as Eurozone tensions have calmed. Money is moving out of so-called safe havens into riskier assets, with the Euro STOXX 50 index up 4% and the S&P500 and FTSE 100 both rallying over 1% so far.

UK economy contracts 0.7% in second quarter

Wed, 25 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK is sinking further into its double-dip recession at an alarming rate, if the data from the Office for National Statistics are to be believed, with output nose-diving at the fastest rate since the height of the financial crisis in the first quarter of 2009.

UK services activity bounces higher in May

Wed, 25 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK service sector grew at the fastest rate for a year in May, but the growth spurt is expected to prove short-lived as recent GDP data show the sector contracting over the second quarter as a whole.

German IFO survey points to gloomiest outlook for three years

Wed, 25 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The headline index from the IFO survey fell for the third month running in July, dropping from 105.2 in June to 103.3, its lowest since March 2010.

Daily Economic Overview: Economic worries drive equities down for fourth successive session

Wed, 25 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The FTSE All World share price index is down for the fourth straight session on Wednesday, hit by gloomy economic data though also stymied by worse than expected corporate results from Apple. The index is down 0.2% so far, taking equities 3.8% lower than last Thursday’s closing high and back to a level not seen since the close on 28 May.

Daily Economic Overview: Downbeat Eurozone PMI adds to worries from Moody’s

Tue, 24 Jul 2012 17:00:00 GMT

The FTSE All World share price index is falling for the third successive session on Tuesday, down 0.5% and now 3.6% lower than last Thursday’s closing high. Ongoing worries about the Eurozone and signs of slower growth in the US have offset brighter news from China.

Flash PMIs: Slower US manufacturing growth accompanies ongoing downturns in Eurozone and China

Tue, 24 Jul 2012 15:00:00 GMT

Flash manufacturing PMIs – Markit’s survey-based indicators of business conditions – showed the Eurozone downturn deepening in July, while growth slowed for a third successive month in the US to the weakest in over a year-and-a-half. China’s manufacturing economy meanwhile contracted for the ninth month running, although the rate of decline eased to the weakest for five months.

HSBC China PMI shows signs of manufacturing stabilising

Tue, 24 Jul 2012 09:00:00 GMT

China’s manufacturing sector continued to contract at the start of the third quarter, albeit to the weakest extent in five months. At 49.5 in July, the headline HSBC ‘flash’ China Manufacturing PMI rose from 48.2 in June to register only a marginal rate of deterioration in manufacturing sector operating conditions.

UK inflation perceptions lowest since October 2010

Tue, 24 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

UK inflation perceptions continued to drop steadily from the six-month high seen in March, according to the latest Markit survey of 1,500 UK households. The index measuring current living costs dropped from 85.1 to 82.9 in July. This was the fourth month in a row that the index had fallen, with the latest reading the lowest for almost two years. However, inflation expectations remain stubbornly high, and this survey measure has generally been trending up in recent months.

Ongoing Eurozone downturn drives rate of job losses to highest for two-and-a-half years

Tue, 24 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index was unchanged at 46.4 in July, according to the preliminary ‘flash’ reading which is based on around 85% of usual monthly replies. The index therefore signalled that the private sector economy contracted for the tenth time in the past 11 months, with the rate of decline unchanged on June.

UK households report brightest outlook for finances for over two years

Mon, 23 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Lower inflation has helped push households’ opinions on their future finances in July to the highest for over two years. Household spending is rising as a result, but only very modestly as the impact of lower inflation is offset by falling pay and ongoing widespread job insecurity. Lower inflation alone may therefore be insufficient to drive a consumer recovery without a stronger labour market recovery. The prospect of higher inflation later this year could also prove a set back to any consumer recovery.

Week ahead economic calendar [23 - 27 Jul]: GDP data to show second quarter growth trends in US and UK, while flash PMIs provide first clues at the start of the third quarter

Fri, 20 Jul 2012 15:00:00 GMT

The flash PMIs will give the earliest indication of how the global economy started the second half of the year. All will be watched closely by policymakers for growth, employment and price trends and will therefore provide a steer for future policy decisions.

Low growth pushes UK Government deficit up 11.7% on last year

Fri, 20 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

More bad news for the UK government as a larger than expected public sector deficit in June pushed the government's deficit reduction target for the year further out of reach.

Daily Economic Overview: Eurozone worries return to dominate market sentiment

Fri, 20 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

After rising 0.8% on Thursday, up some 3.3% from the closing low seen on 12 July, the FTSE All World index is down 1.1% on Friday. In a day light on economic releases, markets appear to have turned their focus back to the Eurozone, which has hit risk appetite.

US jobless claims trend shows smallest increase for two months

Thu, 19 Jul 2012 15:00:00 GMT

US unemployment benefit claims are showing an improving trend, despite an uptick in the jobless count last week, pointing to subdued payroll growth in July. It therefore seems increasingly likely that the Fed will need to see the economic data deteriorate further before sanctioning more aggressive stimulus.

Falling UK retail sales add to second quarter growth worries

Thu, 19 Jul 2012 11:00:00 GMT

A wash-out summer means UK retail sales slumped in the second quarter. Cold and wet weather, combined with ongoing worries about high unemployment, a darkening outlook and the rising cost of living, means the consumer is acting as a drag on the economy and not, as the Bank of England and others had expected, helping to revive the UK from its double-dip recession.

Daily Economic Overview: Equities continue to rise in the face of disappointing economic data

Thu, 19 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

All major equity markets are up on Thursday, pushing the FTSE All World index up by 0.8% on Wednesday’s close and taking the total increase since last Thursday’s low to 3.3%. Strong gains in Asia have been followed by higher share prices in Europe and, to a lesser extent, the US.

Slowdown in Russian production growth follows PMI

Wed, 18 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Business surveys and official data showed Russian production growth slowing in June, a month in which confidence among Russian businesses also slipped sharply compared with earlier in the year. Russia achieved economic growth of 4.9% in the first quarter, but a slowdown looks inevitable based on PMI data, oil prices and both government and IMF forecasts.

Olympics provide temporary lift to UK labour market

Wed, 18 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Temporary hiring for the Olympics has brought about a welcome drop in unemployment and jump in employment in the three months to May, but an underlying weakness in the labour market is hinted at by ongoing weak pay growth. The longer-term prospects for the labour market have also deteriorated since the robust hiring trend seen earlier in the year, suggesting unemployment may soon start to rise again.

Extra gilt purchases voted for by seven of nine Bank of England policymakers

Wed, 18 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Seven out of nine members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted to add a further £50bn to its quantitative easing programme, bringing the total asset purchase scheme to £375bn, and also mulled a more aggressive £75bn extension. Two members disagreed, citing worries about inflation and hope that other measures may prove more effective in boosting growth.

Daily Economic Overview: Global equities continue to rally but sterling hit by economy worries

Wed, 18 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Global equities are rising again on prospects of further central bank stimulus, though instances of better than expected corporate earnings are also helping drive upward momentum.

Daily Economic Overview: Bernanke comments pour doubt on extra stimulus hopes

Tue, 17 Jul 2012 17:00:00 GMT

Global equities are paying back some of the gains seen late last week on Tuesday, dropping 0.3% after ending up flat day on Monday, as doubts grow as to whether the US Fed will act more aggressively to combat signs of weakness in the US economy.

US Inflation holds at 1.7% as prices show no change in June. Oil and food prices a growing concern.

Tue, 17 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

US inflation held steady at 1.7% in June, in line with expectations. Rising food and oil prices may cause the rate to rise again in the second half of the year, but the core rate is likely to be held in check by weak demand.

UK inflation drops closer to target but food and oil pose threat to outlook

Tue, 17 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

UK inflation dropped sharply in June to its lowest since November 2009, further alleviating the squeeze on incomes and helping to revive consumer spending.

US manufacturing rebounds in June but still points to weak second quarter growth

Tue, 17 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

US industrial production rose 0.4% in June, according to the Federal Reserve, providing a much needed piece of good news and more than offsetting a 0.2% decline in May.

Daily Economic Overview: Stocks rise for second session running as weak economic data add to hopes of looser policy

Mon, 16 Jul 2012 18:00:00 GMT

Equities are rising for the second successive session in Monday, buoyed largely by hopes of further central bank stimulus.

IMF downgrades global growth outlook for 2013

Mon, 16 Jul 2012 17:00:00 GMT

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised down its global growth forecast, matching the general view among most forecasters that the economic outlook has darkened since earlier in the year.

US sales fall for third straight month as consumer mood darkens

Mon, 16 Jul 2012 17:00:00 GMT

US retail sales fell for the third month in a row in June, underlining the renewed weakness of domestic demand in the world’s largest economy. The downturn is significant not just as a sign that economic growth could be faltering in the US, but also suggest that exporters in countries such as China are likely to be suffering from consumer retrenchment in the US.

Daily Economic Overview: Stocks break losing run as China worries ease

Fri, 13 Jul 2012 17:00:00 GMT

Equities have snapped out of a seven-day slump following news that economic growth in China slowed rather than collapsed in the second quarter. A well–received bond auction in Rome is also helping to shore-up sentiment about the Eurozone, helping the euro recover from Thursday’s two-year lows.

US consumer confidence slides to weakest so far this year

Fri, 13 Jul 2012 16:00:00 GMT

Consumer confidence fell to a seven-month in July according to the University of Michigan's preliminary survey estimate. The overall sentiment index fell from 73.2 in June to 72.0 as an upturn in views on the current situation was offset by a deterioration in prospects for the year ahead.

Week ahead economic calendar [16 - 20 Jul]: Inflation to cool but UK set for weak retail sales and labour market stats

Fri, 13 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Inflation set to fall further in the US and UK. Bank of England MPC minutes and Bernanke testimony to be scoured for need for more aggressive stimulus. UK retail sales, unemployment and government borrowing data likely to disappoint.

Eurozone production shows steepest annual decline since late-2009

Thu, 12 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone industrial production rose 0.6% in May, far stronger than expected but only partly reversing a downwardly-revised 1.1% drop in production in April. That leaves output some 0.5% lower than at the end of the first quarter. The May increase was only the second seen in the past nine months, meaning production is now running 2.8% lower than a year ago – the steepest annual rate of decline since December 2009.

US jobless claims fall to lowest since March 2008

Thu, 12 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

US jobless claims fell last week, from 376k to 350k. That was the lowest weekly number since March 2008 and therefore adds evidence to support the prevailing view on the FOMC that more aggressive stimulus is not required at present.

Daily Economic Overview: Stocks hit by rising risk aversion amid global growth worries

Thu, 12 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Growing risk aversion is pushing equities lower for a seventh successive session while also driving demand for safe havens such as UK, US and German government debt. The flight to safety largely reflects growing unease about the economic outlook.

Ireland shows signs of resilience amid Eurozone crisis

Wed, 11 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

While recent PMI data have shown the Eurozone economy to have contracted over the first half of 2012, a different trend has been evident in Ireland, where stabilisation and even some growth has been seen. Companies in Ireland have worked hard to improve their competitive position and this has borne fruit, particularly in export markets.

Daily Economic Overview: Equities continue to slide on growth worries but Eurozone tensions ease

Wed, 11 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Global equities are continuing to struggle, looking set to fall for a sixth consecutive session on concerns about global economic growth and the Eurozone. However, bond yields are falling in the Eurozone periphery on new austerity plans in Spain.

Monthly Economic Overview: Global growth stalling as euro gloom spreads

Tue, 10 Jul 2012 17:00:00 GMT

The global PMI hit a three-year low in June, suggesting the pace of economic growth slumped to an annual rate close to 1%. Manufacturing contracted for the first time since last November and growth slowed to near-stagnation in services. Both the Eurozone and Japan were found to have contracted during the month while growth slowed in the US, UK and China.

Daily Economic Overview: China’s trade data add to global growth jitters

Tue, 10 Jul 2012 17:00:00 GMT

Concerns about global economic growth are being balanced against better news from the Eurozone, leading to mixed market trends on Tuesday.

Extra stimulus on the cards in China as growth falters and inflation eases

Tue, 10 Jul 2012 16:00:00 GMT

The downbeat flow of economic data for China continued on Tuesday, with a sharp slowing in import growth raising concerns about the underlying strength of domestic demand in the world’s second-largest economy. Imports increased 6.3% on an annual basis in June, down from 12.7% in May. Growth of exports meanwhile eased from an annual rate of 15.3% to 11.3%.

UK production and exports rise in May, but manufacturing and trade still likely to acts as drags on economy in second quarter

Tue, 10 Jul 2012 11:00:00 GMT

Some better than expected UK manufacturing and trade numbers for May disguise a deepening downturn of the economy, with output and exports set to fall markedly over the second quarter as a whole and the trade deficit widening to an extent not seen since 2008.

Daily Economic Overview: Equities continue to fall due to economic growth worries

Mon, 09 Jul 2012 17:00:00 GMT

Global equity markets are heading for their fourth successive fall on Monday due to ongoing worries about global economic growth.

Global business confidence weakens amid euro-gloom

Mon, 09 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Global business confidence waned in June, according to the latest Markit Global Business Outlook Survey of 11,000 companies worldwide, but post-crisis low seen late last year.

Capex plans at US firms most positive since late-2009, but European companies set to retrench

Mon, 09 Jul 2012 11:00:00 GMT

Plans for capital expenditure over the next 12 months vary markedly by region. The latest Markit Global Business Outlook survey, covering a panel of 11,000 manufacturers and service providers, signals rising capex in the US and, to a lesser extent, Japan, but a downbeat picture in Europe, with UK companies revising down their capex spend plans compared to earlier in the year and Eurozone companies even planning to cut spend.

Auto sector leads EU downturn as slump continues

Fri, 06 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

PMI data for the EU signalled that the region’s economic downturn remained broad-based across a wide range of sectors in June. Of 22 detailed sectors covered, business activity declined in all except Beverages and Forestry & Paper. For the second month running, Automobiles & Parts posted the fastest decline in production of all 22 sectors.

UK producer price pressures weakest since late-2009

Fri, 06 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Official data on producer prices brought further good news for the UK inflation outlook. Prices charged by manufacturers for their goods fell on the month and rose at the slowest annual rate since October 2009, as firms’ input prices showed the first annual fall since September 2009.

Third month of weak US jobs growth piles pressure on Fed to boost economy

Fri, 06 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Another month of worryingly weak job creation looks likely to encourage the Federal Reserve to seek more aggressive means of giving the US economy a lift, in the face of a darkening global economic environment.

Daily Economic Overview: Markets hit by lacklustre US payroll growth and euro worries

Fri, 06 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Another disappointing US non-farm payroll report, warnings about the economic outlook from the IMF and resurgent worries in the Eurozone rocked market sentiment on Friday. ‘Risk assets’ such as equities and commodities are falling again and the euro is down close to a two-year low.

Bank of England prescribes more medicine for ailing UK economy

Thu, 05 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Bank of England has chosen to give the ailing UK economy a further shot in the arm by adding to its asset purchases, in light of recent disappointing economic data and a gloomier-looking economic outlook.

ECB cuts interest rates to historic low

Thu, 05 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The European Central Bank cut its main policy rate to 0.75% on Thursday to help stimulate growth in the euro area, after recent economic data showed the region to be sliding deeper into another recession. In a surprise move, the ECB also cut the rate it pays banks to deposit money at the central bank to zero, in an attempt to boost interbank lending.

Global economic growth close to stalling

Thu, 05 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The worldwide PMI business surveys signalled a near-stagnation of the global economy in June, registering the smallest increase in output for nearly three years. The JPMorgan Global PMI fell for the fourth month in a row in June to 50.3, from 52.1 in May, to signal only a marginal increase in business activity.

Week ahead economic calendar [09 - 13 July]: Markets braced for gloomy news on Chinese economy

Thu, 05 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Gloomy news is expected on the health of the Chinese economy, with official data on second quarter gross domestic product set to show a further easing in the pace of economic expansion. China’s annual growth rate slowed to 8.1% in the first quarter and business surveys suggest the pace has since weakened further, dropping below 8%, as private sector activity growth slowed to near-stagnation in June.

Central bank action get’s ‘thumbs down’ from equity markets

Thu, 05 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Central banks in the UK, Eurozone and China acted to boost economic growth on Thursday, coinciding with worldwide business surveys showing global economic growth to have almost ground to a halt in June.

Daily Economic Overview: Services PMI surveys boost equities via hopes of central bank action

Wed, 04 Jul 2012 17:00:00 GMT

Equities have continued to find some support as weak economic data fuel expectations of further central bank stimulus, but banking woes have edged stock markets lower and the euro remains firmly under pressure from worries about the region’s growth outlook.

UK PMI surveys signal weakest growth for eight months in June

Wed, 04 Jul 2012 11:00:00 GMT

Downbeat PMI surveys for June have swelled the likelihood of the Bank of England acting to boost growth at its next policy meeting. Markit’s All-Sector PMI fell for the third successive month, down from 52.3 in May to an eight-month low of 51.1. The latest reading is one of the weakest seen since the recovery began three years ago.

Japan: Composite data show first fall in business activity since November 2011

Wed, 04 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Business activity in Japan’s service sector decreased for a second successive month during June, as new order growth remained muted. This in turn contributed to a slight reduction in staff numbers and a further depletion of outstanding business.

Eurozone PMI rises in June but still signals steep rate of contraction

Wed, 04 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone economic downturn extended into a fifth consecutive month in June, as the debt and political crises continued to have an adverse impact on both the manufacturing and service sectors. At 46.4 in June, the Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index was higher than both May’s reading of 46.0 and the earlier flash estimate of 46.0, but still remained deep in contraction territory.

Chinese activity growth eases to near-stagnation in June

Wed, 04 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Latest survey findings showed growth of business activity (covering manufacturing and services) easing to a marginal rate in June. The HSBC Composite Output Index posted 50.6, down from 51.9 in May, and was the lowest reading in three months.

Global manufacturing prices fall at fastest rate for three years

Mon, 02 Jul 2012 17:00:00 GMT

The Global Manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest for three years in June, signalling the first downturn in business conditions since late last year as both output and new orders fell during the month. The slowdown has had a big impact on price pressures, with the average price paid by manufacturers for their inputs also falling at the fastest rate for three years. Weak demand has led to increased discounting among suppliers, and the reduction in manufacturing raw material costs should help further alleviate global inflation pressures in coming months.

Daily Economic Overview: Manufacturing PMI surveys dent risk appetite

Mon, 02 Jul 2012 17:00:00 GMT

Early equity market gains in Europe are being offset by falling share prices in the US as risk appetite is dented by weak PMI business surveys. The Global Manufacturing PMI has sunk to a three-year low, with manufacturing output falling in the US, UK, Eurozone, China and Japan in June.

Global manufacturing conditions deteriorate at fastest rate for three years

Mon, 02 Jul 2012 05:00:00 GMT

The worldwide PMI business surveys signalled a downturn in the manufacturing sector for the first time since late last year and the sharpest contraction for three years.

UK manufacturing input prices fall at fastest pace in three years

Mon, 02 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Conditions in the UK manufacturing sector remained fragile in June. Although output volumes recouped some of the losses incurred in the previous month, demand remained weak and job losses continued. On a slightly brighter note, cost pressures fell sharply, with average input prices declining at the fastest pace since May 2009.

Deteriorating Eurozone manufacturing conditions in June round off weakest quarter for three years

Mon, 02 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

June PMI data signalled that the downturn in the Eurozone manufacturing sector extended to an eleventh successive month. Production and new orders suffered further severe contractions, leading to the steepest job losses since January 2010.

Greek manufacturing sector registers accelerated contraction during June

Mon, 02 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

June’s survey showed that the Greek manufacturing sector continued to suffer deteriorating health as mid-year approached, with output, orders and employment all continuing to fall at severe and accelerated rates.

China: Sharper declines in output, new business and export orders in June

Mon, 02 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

China’s goods producers reported an eighth successive month-on-month deterioration in operating conditions during June, as output, incoming new orders and employment continued to decrease.

US PMI signals weakest manufacturing expansion for 18 months

Mon, 02 Jul 2012 12:00:00 GMT

At 52.5, lower than the earlier flash estimate of 52.9 and down from 54.0 in May, the final Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index signalled the weakest improvement in business conditions in 18 months during June.

Daily Economic Overview: EU summit provides boost to markets, but longer term doubts persist

Fri, 29 Jun 2012 17:00:00 GMT

Market sentiment has improved following a better than expected outcome from this week’s EU summit, although the initial rally has lost some momentum as resistance levels are reached for many assets. The summit has helped alleviate short-term pressures in the financial markets, but there is a widespread view that much still needs to be done to successfully tackle the region’s longer-term political and economic challenges.

UK service sector flat-lines as growth stalls

Fri, 29 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Growth of the UK services economy, which accounts for some 77% of total economic activity, stalled in April, according to the Office for National Statistics. The data signal a disappointing start to the second quarter, supporting Bank of England Governor Mervyn King's recent gloomy assessment of the economy and adding to the risk that the UK's double dip recession will have extended into its third successive quarter.

Week ahead economic calendar [02 - 06 July]: PMIs published in lead-up to monetary policy decisions in Europe

Fri, 29 Jun 2012 11:00:00 GMT

PMI surveys are published in the lead up to central bank policymaking decisions on Thursday, in a busy week for economy watchers.

Daily Economic Overview: Banking sector woes and economic gloom drive renewed risk aversion

Thu, 28 Jun 2012 17:00:00 GMT

With the exception of Japan, where news of stronger retail sales boosted market sentiment, the world’s main equity indices are back in the red. The decline has been led down by banking stocks, with bank shares heading south due to news of the ongoing probe into LIBOR manipulation. However, general equity prices have not been helped by the ongoing flow of bad news continuing to emanate from the Eurozone.

Eurozone retail sales fall at slower pace in June

Thu, 28 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone retail sector remained in contraction mid-way through 2012, according to PMI data from Markit. Sales fell on a month-on-month basis for the eighth successive month – the third-longest sequence in the survey history – and purchases of new goods by retailers declined at the second-fastest pace on record. That said, the rate of decline in sales slowed sharply during the month.

UK GDP data point to deepening double-dip recession

Thu, 28 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK's double-dip recession has deepened, according to government data, and there seems little prospect of growth reviving soon as business and consumer confidence remains in the doldrums. However, the consolation is that this is the healthiest downturn we have seen in recent history, with firms taking on staff in record numbers, presenting a very puzzling picture of just how healthy the UK economy really is at the moment.

US durable goods orders show steepest three-month fall for three years

Wed, 27 Jun 2012 16:00:00 GMT

Orders for durable goods showed a surprisingly strong increase in May, but over the last three months orders have fallen at the fastest rate for three years, signalling a worrying downturn in underlying demand for US goods.

CBI survey shows strongest rise in UK retail sales since late-2010

Wed, 27 Jun 2012 13:00:00 GMT

Retail sales grew at the fastest pace for a year-and-a-half in June, according to the CBI’s distributive trades survey. The survey's net balance (the number of retailers seeing a higher volume of sales compared to a year ago minus those seeing a decline) rose from +21% in May to +42%, its highest since December 2010.

Daily Economic Overview: Markets rally on positive US data, but Merkel dampens spirits in Europe

Wed, 27 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Wednesday has seen a more positive mood in the markets as economic data for the US has surprised on the upside. However, worries about the Eurozone continue to dampen risk appetite, and Spanish and Italian borrowing costs have risen again on worries that the EU leaders meeting this week will not deliver any meaningful response to the region’s crisis.

Daily Economic Overview: Markets steady as better US house price data offset European gloom

Tue, 26 Jun 2012 17:00:00 GMT

Equities have steadied after Monday’s losses, but the markets clearly remained worried by the weak growth outlook and the Eurozone crisis.

Weak tax receipts and rising welfare bill drives up UK Government deficit

Tue, 26 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Higher than expected borrowing so far this year and an upward revision to last year's deficit cast further doubt on the UK Government's ability to meet its deficit reduction targets in the current economic environment.

UK households report least downbeat financial outlook since April 2010. Lower inflation brings relief, but incomes drop at faster pace.

Mon, 25 Jun 2012 13:00:00 GMT

Lower inflation provided some relief to UK household finances in June, ushering in a slower drop in cash availability and the least downbeat assessment of future finances for over two years. However, the overall picture is by no means akin to ‘fog in Channel; continental woes cut off’, and it will take much more than a dip in inflation to carry this resilience through the second half of 2012.

Daily Economic Overview: Markets hit by global growth worries and Eurozone crisis

Mon, 25 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Stock markets are slumping due to worries about global growth and ongoing concerns about the Eurozone.

Week ahead economic calendar [25 - 29 Jun]: Hopes mount ahead of EU leaders’ summit

Fri, 22 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The main focus of next week will be the European summit on 28-29 June, with markets clearly looking for the EU to lay out a clear road map for political, fiscal and banking union in order to help alleviate the current stress in Spanish and Italian bond markets in particular. At the very least, elements of a growth strategy to accompany the fiscal pact are expected to be outlined, and movement towards a debt redemption fund is also hoped for. Optimists anticipating bold decision-making remain few and far between.

Manufacturing surveys turn down in the US, Eurozone and China

Thu, 21 Jun 2012 15:00:00 GMT

Flash manufacturing PMIs – Markit’s survey-based indicators of business conditions in the Eurozone, US and China – all deteriorated in June. Ongoing US expansion contrasted with deepening downturns in the Eurozone and, to a lesser extent China, but all three surveys point to a further weakening of global economic trends.

US PMI signals weakest manufacturing expansion in 11 months

Thu, 21 Jun 2012 14:00:00 GMT

The June Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) signalled a moderate improvement in U.S. manufacturing sector business conditions, according to the preliminary ‘flash’ reading which is based on around 85% of usual monthly replies. However, the headline PMI fell from 54.0 in May to 52.9, and indicated the weakest expansion in 11 months.

Falling euro area business activity in June rounds off worst quarter for three years

Thu, 21 Jun 2012 09:00:00 GMT

The flash PMI for June rounded off the weakest quarter for three years, indicating Eurozone GDP is likely to have fallen by 0.6%. The downturn is gathering pace and spreading across the region, with Germany on course for a marginal fall in GDP in the second quarter, though far steeper declines are likely elsewhere – including a 0.6% drop in France.

Steepest drop in German private sector output for three years. Euro crisis leads to survey-record monthly fall in service providers’ business outlook.

Thu, 21 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Germany’s private sector economy slipped deeper into contraction territory at the midway point of the year, with output falling at the fastest pace since June 2009. German manufacturers were at the forefront of the downturn, as a worsening global economic backdrop and the ongoing euro crisis weighed heavily on export demand. Anxiety created by the run-up to the Greek election appears to have severely dented business sentiment, with the monthly drop in service sector confidence the greatest in 15 years of survey collection. While an impending ‘Drachmageddon’ scenario has been avoided, there nonetheless seems a deepening consensus among German businesses that the euro area turbulence has already damaged their growth prospects for the latter half of 2012.

Rate of decline in French private sector output eases in June

Thu, 21 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

June’s slower fall in output allays fears of the continuing Eurozone crisis dragging the French economy further into the mire, but Q2 has nevertheless been the worst quarter for activity in over three years. With new business continuing to fall sharply despite increasingly widespread price cutting, the outlook remains gloomy and companies responded by cutting jobs at the fastest pace for 29 months. A further dip in service providers’ future expectations underlines the lack of confidence among businesses at present.

HSBC China PMI paints worrying growth picture

Thu, 21 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

China’s goods producers reported a further deterioration in operating conditions during June, with the seasonally adjusted HSBC ‘flash’ Manufacturing PMI posting its second-lowest reading in 39 months. For the second quarter as a whole, the index averaged its lowest quarterly value since Q1 2009, when the Chinese economy grew just 6.5% on an annual basis.

UK consumers alive and spending as retail data show strongest underlying sales trend since August 2010

Thu, 21 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

UK retail sales rebounded in May after falling sharply in April, according to official data. The bounce-back meant sales have risen a meagre 0.4% in the latest three months. However, once volatile petrol sales are excluded, the underlying trend is the strongest since August 2010, perhaps weakening the case for further quantitative easing.

Daily Economic Overview: Markets treading water ahead of FOMC decision

Wed, 20 Jun 2012 17:00:00 GMT

Markets were treading water ahead of the conclusion of the US Federal Market Open Committee (FOMC) meeting at 17:30 (BST). The swearing in of Antonis Samaras as the new Greece prime minister and comments from the G20 leaders that they are willing to do more to lower sovereign borrowing costs has helped fuel risk appetite, but caution prevails ahead of the policy decision from the Fed.

Bank of England shifts closer to further stimulus

Wed, 20 Jun 2012 14:00:00 GMT

The minutes from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting in early June show that additional quantitative easing at the July meeting looks like a done deal. The only question is: how much?

UK labour market first quarter strength shows signs of waning

Wed, 20 Jun 2012 14:00:00 GMT

The latest labour market data point to near-record hiring in the first quarter, but also suggest that the health of the job market has since deteriorated slightly, adding to hopes that the Bank of England will inject further stimulus to help boost growth.

Daily Economic Overview: Hopes of central bank intervention boost stock markets

Tue, 19 Jun 2012 18:00:00 GMT

Risk appetite is building as economic data add to the growing view that central banks will intervene to boost economic growth. News of a fall in UK inflation and a steep drop in investor sentiment in Germany have bolstered the case for more policy stimulus, which traditionally sends equities higher.

Drop in UK inflation supports call for more QE

Tue, 19 Jun 2012 17:00:00 GMT

A further fall in UK inflation will help pave the way for more intervention by the Bank of England in early July, with further quantitative easing likely as increasing numbers of policymakers see the need to help restore the UK economy to a path of growth.

US industrial production falls and consumers grow gloomier

Fri, 15 Jun 2012 16:00:00 GMT

The US manufacturing sector saw production fall in May and consumers grew gloomier in June, adding yet more evidence to suggest the economy is entering a softer growth phase. The disappointing numbers will add to calls for the Fed to help support the economy, especially given the increasing adverse international environment caused by the Eurozone crisis.

UK trade deficit close to record high as exports collapse

Fri, 15 Jun 2012 11:00:00 GMT

Today’s truly terrible trade data highlight the mounting impact of a weakening global economy on the UK. At £4.421bn in April compared with £2.957 in March, the trade deficit widened to the highest since August 2005 and the second-widest since comparable records began in 1992.

Falling inflation and renewed labour market weakness in the US add to QE3 calls

Thu, 14 Jun 2012 16:00:00 GMT

A sharp fall in inflation and new signs of a weakening jobs market have opened the door further for the Fed to stimulate the tired-looking US recovery through another dose of stimulus.

Global economy enters softer growth phase

Thu, 14 Jun 2012 11:00:00 GMT

Growth of global economic output slowed slightly in May, according to latest PMI data, dropping for the third month running to reach a six-month low. A faster increase in service sector activity was offset by a slower rate of expansion in manufacturing. There was a positive development on the price front, however, with average costs faced by worldwide private sector firms rising at the weakest rate in the current 34-month period of inflation.

Week ahead economic calendar [18 - 22 Jun]: Greek elections and flash PMIs to set the scene for policymakers

Thu, 14 Jun 2012 11:00:00 GMT

Next week will see market direction steered initially by the results of the Greek election. All eyes will be on Spanish and Italian government bond yields. On the economic data front, Markit’s flash PMI data will provide the first indication of the health of the global economy in June.

Monthly economic overview: US helps drive global expansion, but worldwide growth hits six-month low

Thu, 14 Jun 2012 11:00:00 GMT

Global economic growth slowed to a six-month low in May, according to the worldwide PMI surveys. The surveys point to GDP growth of around 2% per annum in Q2, well below that seen in the years prior to the financial crisis. Of the major economies, ongoing robust growth in the US contrasted with a deepening downturn in the Eurozone, stalled growth in Japan and weak performances in China and the UK.

Falling Eurozone industrial production adds to second quarter worries

Wed, 13 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone industrial production fell 0.8% in April, according to official data. Production was 2.3% lower than a year ago, pointing to the strongest downturn since December 2009. The drop was less than expected according to a Reuters poll of analysts, and March's decline was revised to show a shallower downturn, but the April fall can hardly be seen as anything other than bad news for the euro area and takes the level of production down to its lowest since September 2010.

UK manufacturing output drops 0.7%, adding to recession worries

Tue, 12 Jun 2012 17:00:00 GMT

Manufacturers saw production fall sharply in April, according to official statistics, in line with the weak trend depicted by business survey data. The surveys also suggest that the situation deteriorated further in May, raising the likelihood of the UK economy contracting in the second quarter.

China’s industrial growth stabilises and inflation falls to near two-year low

Tue, 12 Jun 2012 17:00:00 GMT

China’s surprise decision to cut interest rates last week for the first time since 2008 had stirred fears among investors of an impending release of poor economic data over the weekend. On balance, however, key indicators from May’s “data dump” were broadly in line with or, in some cases, above expectations. The assertive monetary move nonetheless indicates that the Chinese authorities are concerned about downside risks to the economy, and perhaps less worried about the outlook for inflation.

Contraction in the Spanish economy continues in Q2

Tue, 12 Jun 2012 17:00:00 GMT

PMI data suggested that things went from bad to worse in the Spanish economy during May, with contractions in output accelerating across both the manufacturing and service sectors. Anecdotal evidence from PMI panel members suggested that the ongoing lack of demand is mainly reflective of domestic problems, but the weakness in the rest of the eurozone was also reported to have weighed on demand midway through the second quarter of the year.

Autos registers steepest drop in output of all EU sectors in May

Mon, 11 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The European economic downturn deepened across a broad base of industries and sectors in May, PMI data for the EU signalled. Output in the autos sector fell more sharply than in any other sector, while the downturn in banking activity continued.

Week ahead economic calendar [11-15 Jun]: IP and inflation data highlight of the week

Fri, 08 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Inflation and industrial production data for the Eurozone, the US and UK (output data only) take the main stage, in what will be a relatively quiet week for economic releases.

UK PMI surveys signal weakening growth in May

Thu, 07 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK PMI business surveys signalled a slowing in private sector growth to a six-month low in May as domestic and overseas demand waned, adding to recent concerns about the health of the UK economy. The All Sector PMI – a weighted average of the output/activity balances from the three PMI surveys covering construction, manufacturing and services – fell to a six-month low of 52.3 in May.

Eurozone PMI hits near-three year low in May

Tue, 05 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

At 46.0 in May, down from 46.7 in April, the Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index signalled the steepest rate of decline in manufacturing and services output in the single currency area since June 2009. The headline index came in slightly above its flash estimate of 45.9, but remained below the neutral 50.0 mark for the fourth month running.

Global economic growth remains subdued in May

Tue, 05 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Growth of global economic output held broadly steady in May, as a slower rate of expansion in manufacturing production was offset by a faster increase in service sector activity. The JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index – a composite index produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – posted 52.1 in May, little-changed from 52.3 in April, but nonetheless the lowest reading since November 2011.

US jobless rate rises as employment growth slips to one-year low

Fri, 01 Jun 2012 16:00:00 GMT

US employers added just 69,000 to their payroll numbers in May, the weakest rise for a year. Hiring in both March and April was also lower than previously estimated, pushing the unemployment rate back up to 8.2% and painting a downbeat picture of the labour market.

Week ahead economic calendar [04 - 08 Jun]: Pressure grows on policymakers

Fri, 01 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

All eyes turn to the Bank of England and European Central Bank to see if new signs of steep economic decline will galvanize policymakers into voting for more stimulus.

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI sinks to near three-year low in May

Fri, 01 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone manufacturing sector downturn deepened during May, as steep drops in output and new orders led to further job losses. The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to a near three-year low of 45.1 in May, down from 45.9 in April and little-changed from the earlier flash estimate of 45.0.

Greek manufacturing operating conditions continue to deteriorate in May

Fri, 01 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Another difficult month for Greek manufacturers was signalled by May’s survey. Despite relative rates of contraction easing over the month, output, new orders, purchasing and employment were again all markedly reduced across the sector.

UK Manufacturing PMI slumps to three-year low in May

Fri, 01 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

At 45.9 in May, down from 50.2 in April, the seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest level for three years and below the neutral 50.0 mark for the first time since last November. The headline index fell by 4.3 points over the month, the second-steepest fall in its 20-year history.

HSBC China PMI signals seventh successive month of deteriorating operating conditions

Fri, 01 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

May data signalled a further modest deterioration in manufacturing sector operating conditions, largely reflective of a seventh successive month-on-month decline in overall new business. Job shedding persisted as a result, with the latest reduction in staff numbers the sharpest in more than three years.

US manufacturing expands at weakest rate for three months in May

Fri, 01 Jun 2012 12:00:00 GMT

At 54.0, down from 56.0 in April, the final Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI came in higher than the earlier flash estimate of 53.9 but nevertheless still signalled the weakest improvement in business conditions since February.

Eurozone retail sales continue to fall sharply in May

Wed, 30 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone retail sector remained firmly in contraction in May, according to PMI data from Markit. Sales fell sharply on a month-on-month basis, and revenues compared with a year ago were down at a near-record rate. There were signs of easing pressure on retailer’s purchasing costs, however, as the rate of purchase price inflation slowed sharply to a 19-month low.

Mixed signals on US consumer confidence in May

Tue, 29 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

How US consumers are feeling at the moment is anyone's guess. They are either the most optimistic since late-2007, according to the University of Michigan, or the least confident since January, if today's Conference Board survey is to be believed.

Week ahead economic calendar [28 May - 01 Jun]: Manufacturing PMIs and US payrolls to give policymakers new insights

Fri, 25 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

A data-heavy week features the manufacturing PMIs and US non-farm payrolls, providing important updates on economic conditions in May for policymakers.

China’s manufacturing sector growth slowdown continues

Thu, 24 May 2012 09:00:00 GMT

A further deterioration in Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions was signalled by May’s ‘flash’ HSBC manufacturing PMI survey. At 48.7, down from 49.3, the headline PMI signalled a worsening of business conditions for the seventh successive month. Looking at the component indexes that make up the headline PMI number, further reductions in total new orders, employment, stocks of pre-production goods and shorter lead times exerted a negative influence on May’s PMI reading. This was slightly offset by a rise in manufacturing production, albeit marginal, for the first time in three months.

Flash PMIs: Manufacturing trends deteriorate in May, though US remains a bright spot

Thu, 24 May 2012 07:00:00 GMT

Flash manufacturing PMIs – Markit’s survey-based indicators of business conditions in the Eurozone, US and China – all deteriorated in May, pointing to a weakening of global economic trends. The US nevertheless continued to record expansion, remaining a bright spot in an otherwise downbeat picture of global manufacturing decline.

Week ahead economic calendar [21 - 25 May]: Flash PMIs to signal health of global economy

Fri, 18 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Flash PMIs from Markit will provide updates on economic conditions during May for the Eurozone, China and – for the first time – the United States. Policymakers around the world have highlighted the Eurozone crisis as a growing risk to the economic outlook, and the release of the new Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI for the US on the same day as a similar index for China and the manufacturing and services flash PMIs for the Eurozone, Germany and France will provide the first picture of how the escalating euro area crisis has affected global economic trends in May.

Japan GDP beats consensus

Thu, 17 May 2012 13:00:00 GMT

Japan’s economy returned to growth in the first quarter of 2012. Gross domestic product (GDP) rose 1.0% on a quarterly basis, which translates into an annualised rate of growth of 4.1% – outperforming other developed nations, such as the United States, by a wide margin. A 0.2% economic contraction in the final quarter of 2011 was meanwhile revised to flat.

UK unemployment falls and employment rises in first quarter

Wed, 16 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The latest UK labour market data present a welcome upbeat picture of the economy, more in line with the economic growth signalled by the business surveys so far this year than the gloomy picture of recession indicated by official data.

US industrial production rebounds in April, but trend rate weakens

Wed, 16 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Better-than-expected industrial production numbers point to an ongoing economic recovery in the US at the start of the second quarter. However, as with many other indicators seen recently, the underlying trend in the data suggests that economic growth may have slowed since earlier in the year.

Eurozone stagnates in first quarter

Tue, 15 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone economy stagnated in the first quarter, according to official data, meaning the region has so far avoided a slide back into recession. The outcome was slightly better than the business surveys had indicated, with the PMIs signalling a very mild downturn in GDP. However, the better outcome largely reflected a surprisingly strong GDP gain in Germany, and the rest of the region is clearly struggling, with marked downturns now taking place in the periphery. The business surveys also suggest that these downturns gathered momentum at the start of the second quarter.

Eurozone industrial production falls at steepest rate since 2009

Mon, 14 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Eurozone industrial production fell 0.3% in March, according to official data, providing further evidence to suggest that the Eurozone is slipping deeper into another recession. The drop in March means production declined 0.5% in the first three months of the year, raising the likelihood of the economy having contracted for a second consecutive quarter.

Week ahead economic calendar [14 - 18 May]: Deteriorating GDP data to add to Eurozone political woes

Fri, 11 May 2012 15:00:00 GMT

Political tensions in the euro area look set to heat up again with the publication of economic growth data for the first quarter. Official data are likely to show that gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.2% across the Eurozone as a whole. Coming on the back of a 0.3% decline in the final quarter of last year, the data would put the region back into a technical recession.

UK construction output slumps 4.8% in first quarter

Fri, 11 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

More gloom on the economy from the Office for National Statistics this morning, with a huge downward revision to the performance of the construction industry in the first quarter. The data compound the dilemma facing the policymakers at the Bank of England, whereby economic weakness is adding to the case for further stimulus, but any stimulus is likely to push inflation even higher above the Bank's target.

China’s monthly “data dump” disappoints in April

Fri, 11 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

China’s monthly “data dump” surprised to the downside in April, raising the likelihood of additional monetary easing by the authorities in an attempt to stimulate growth.

European Commission anticipates European recovery later this year

Fri, 11 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone is forecast to contract in 2012, according to the European Commission’s spring forecasts, but the UK should manage to grow by 0.5%. However, even the UK’s relatively better performance pales compared to the 2.0% and 1.9% growth forecast for the US and Japan respectively.

UK manufacturing rebounds in March but underlying trend remains lacklustre

Thu, 10 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Manufacturing output rebounded strongly in March, after a steep fall in February, but a drop in output of the energy sector meant the wider measure of industrial production fell during the month. The data provide some reassurance that the UK manufacturing sector is not on its knees, but on the other hand it is clearly struggling to grow in the face of weak demand at home, recession in continental Europe and weaker growth in export markets further afield.

Bank of England leaves policy unchanged

Thu, 10 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Bank of England left policy unchanged at its May meeting, leaving interest rates at a record low of 0.5% and its asset purchase programme at £325 billion. The bank is clearly torn between the need to inject more stimulus into a flagging economy and the need to retain some inflation-fighting credibility.

German exports hit record

Wed, 09 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

German exports and imports both hit record highs in March, but growth of exports slowed further from the recent peak seen in January as demand from within the Eurozone fell sharply.

Italy’s economic woes deepen at start of second quarter

Wed, 09 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Latest data have painted a bleak picture of economic conditions in Italy. Confidence has fallen sharply among consumers and businesses alike, unemployment is at a record high and those in work have seen real take-home pay fall sharply in recent months. Furthermore, business surveys suggest that the rate of decline of GDP has accelerated at the start of the second quarter.

German industrial production rises in March, but upturn to prove short-lived

Tue, 08 May 2012 13:00:00 GMT

A surge in construction output helped drive better than expected growth of German industrial activity in March, but the underlying trend remains weak and is following the survey data, which point to a renewed downturn in April.

European downturn spreads across broad base of sectors in April

Tue, 08 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Mainly reflecting woes in the Eurozone, sector PMI data for the EU as a whole signalled a widespread decline in output at the start of the second quarter. Among 22 sectors covered, only Food Producers – the classic defensive sector – recorded growth of output. All others registered contraction or stagnation and, worryingly, Banking was the worst-performing service sector. That said, the outlook among survey participants in the sector is more promising than four years ago.

Markit Flash US Manufacturing PMI

Tue, 08 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Markit, a leading, global financial information services company, today announced it is adding the United States of America to its Flash PMI family, a series of advance estimates of final PMI data. The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI will be the earliest available indicator of business conditions across the U.S. manufacturing sector each month. It will also complement Markit’s Flash China and Flash Eurozone PMIs to make the Flash series the first snapshot of global manufacturing operating conditions every month.

US employment growth disappoints again, but jobless rate falls

Fri, 04 May 2012 16:00:00 GMT

Weak hiring growth in April marked a further disappointment for the US economy. But unemployment is coming down, while economic data more generally is sending an ambiguous growth signal. Policymakers are therefore likely to wait for further clues as to the direction the economy has taken.

Week ahead economic calendar [07 - 11 May]: Elections to test Eurozone austerity resolve

Fri, 04 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

In a relatively quiet week of data releases, economics will take a back seat to politics. Elections in France and Greece, plus a regional election in Germany, all have the potential to escalate the Eurozone crisis by raising anxieties about fiscal discipline. The elections are dominated by the growth-versus-austerity debate, especially in the face of recent survey data showing a deepening recession in the region. Both France and Greece are now suffering steep rates of economic decline, according to Markit’s PMI surveys, and malaise appears to have spread to Germany.

PMI data signal slight improvement in China’s growth profile

Fri, 04 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

April data highlighted a renewed expansion of business activity in China, with the seasonally adjusted HSBC Composite PMI Output Index – designed to give a single figure snapshot of monthly changes in business conditions – rising from 49.9 to 51.4. The uptick in the headline index reflected stronger service sector growth – the highest in six months – and a slower rate of decline in factory output.

Rate of decline in Spanish service sector activity accelerates as economic crisis persists

Fri, 04 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

There appears little end in sight to the problems afflicting the Spanish service sector and wider economy so far this year. April PMI data pointed to accelerated contractions in output and new business. Anecdotal evidence highlighted similar reasons as have been suggested throughout much of the past year, namely ongoing contractions in demand, particularly in domestic markets given the economic crisis in Spain. While it is hoped that conditions will improve over the coming year and support a rise in activity, there were few fundamental reasons for optimism reported by survey respondents.

April sees sharpest contraction in Italian services activity since June 2009

Fri, 04 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

These services figures joined earlier-released retail and manufacturing data in showing faster contractions in activity during April that, with the exception of the latter, are approaching the rates of decline seen at the depth of the 2008/9 recession. Confidence levels sank, with service providers now less optimistic about a rise in output in the forthcoming 12 months.

New business falls at sharpest rate for three years during April, according to France PMI

Fri, 04 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

French service providers reported a sharp fall in new business during April, with the rate of contraction the fastest for three years, matching the trend seen in the manufacturing sector. This evidence of a broad-based deterioration in demand conditions is concerning, and is only partially mitigated by hopes of an improvement once the presidential race is concluded. Indeed, service providers’ confidence regarding future activity dipped to a three-month low in April, suggesting that firms are becoming increasingly nervous about the outlook.

Modest increase in German service sector output

Fri, 04 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The final Germany Services Business Activity Index posted 52.2 in April, little-changed from 52.1 in March but lower than the earlier ‘flash’ estimate of 52.6. The latest reading indicated an increase in service sector output for the seventh consecutive month.

Eurozone downturn deepens at start of second quarter

Fri, 04 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

At 46.7 in April, down from 49.1 in March, the Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index signalled the fastest rate of decline since last October and one of the steepest contractions since mid-2009. The headline index also came in well below its earlier flash estimate of 47.4.

UK PMI surveys hit five-month low at start of second quarter

Thu, 03 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The PMI business surveys signalled an easing in the pace of expansion in April, with the rate of growth dropping to the weakest since November. The weighted average of the Output Index from the three PMI surveys fell from 55.2 in March to a five-month low of 53.2 in April. Growth slowed in manufacturing, services and construction, with the former reporting the weakest pace of expansion and the latter the strongest. The reduced rate of expansion of business activity reflected a similar easing in growth of new orders, which likewise increased across all three sectors at slowest rate since November. Manufacturers even reported a drop in new orders compared with March, driven by the steepest fall in export orders for almost three years.

ISM surveys indicate slower US growth and weaker job creation in April

Thu, 03 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The ISM non-manufacturing PMI for the US signalled a sharp slowdown, contrasting with the upbeat message from the recent manufacturing sister survey and raising fears that the pace of US economic growth has slowed further as it entered the second quarter.

Spanish manufacturing PMI drops to lowest since June 2009

Wed, 02 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Operating conditions in the Spanish manufacturing sector deteriorated sharply again in April. New orders fell at a substantial pace, while the rate of contraction in output accelerated. Spare capacity led to further reductions in backlogs of work and employment. Meanwhile, firms lowered output prices in the face of strong competitive pressures and weak demand, despite robust input cost inflation.

Italian industrial new orders fall at fastest rate for three years

Wed, 02 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

April data showed business conditions within the Italian manufacturing sector in sharp decline. The fastest month-on-month fall in incoming new business for three years dragged the PMI to its lowest reading in six months and sparked marked reductions in both employment and output, though, as in March, the drop in production levels was still too little to prevent a further accumulation of stocks of finished goods.

Greek manufacturers indicate further steep deterioration of operating conditions during April

Wed, 02 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

April proved to be another difficult month for Greek manufacturers, with latest data again showing steep contractions across a number of key variables measured by the survey.

Manufacturing downturn deepens as weakness spreads across euro area

Wed, 02 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Manufacturing in the Eurozone took a further lurch deeper into a new recession in April, with the PMI suggesting that output fell at worryingly steep quarterly rate of over 2%. Job losses rose to the highest for over two years as firms suffered a steepening downturn in order books, suggesting firms are not expecting the gloom to lift any time soon.

UK manufacturing suffers export set-back

Tue, 01 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK’s manufacturing sector came close to stagnation in April as firms reported a steep fall in export orders. The headline PMI – a composite index derived form various sub-indices including output, new orders and employment – fell from 51.9 in March to 50.5, its lowest level since December and close to the 50.0 line which signals no change in business conditions on the prior month. The weakness of the PMI was attributable to the first fall in new orders since November, slower output growth and ongoing sluggish job creation.

US economic growth slows to disappointing 2.2% in first quarter

Fri, 27 Apr 2012 17:00:00 GMT

The US economy remains a bright light in the global economy, although the light is hardly blinding, and also shows some signs of fading. GDP rose an annualised 2.2%, the economy notching up another quarter of reasonable growth in the first three months of the year. At face value, the figure is a disappointment, coming in lower than the 2.5% consensus forecast among economists, and down from 3.0% in the fourth quarter of last year. However, once stock building has been accounted for, the underlying rate of growth picked up, from an annualised rate of 1.1% late last year to 1.6%.

Week ahead economic calendar [30 Apr – 4 May]: Data to highlight global economic trends at start of second quarter

Fri, 27 Apr 2012 15:00:00 GMT

The first comprehensive insight into global business conditions at the start of the second quarter are provided by the PMIs. Euro area policymakers will meet to set interest rates at a time of heightened economic uncertainty for the single currency area. Meanwhile, the all-important US non-farm payrolls number is released. The forecast at present is for a 175k increase, according to a poll conducted by Reuters.

Eurozone retail sales fall at strongest pace since late-2008

Fri, 27 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone retail sector endured a torrid start to the second quarter, according to PMI data from Markit. Sales fell rapidly on a month-on-month basis, as did revenues compared with a year ago. Moreover, weakness extended across the three largest economies, as the German retail sector joined those of France and Italy in contraction.

US Durable goods orders fall at fastest rate for over three years

Wed, 25 Apr 2012 16:00:00 GMT

Further evidence of the US manufacturing sector losing growth momentum at the end of the first quarter were provided by a steep drop in durable goods orders in March. The data add to other signs that the US economy is repeating the pattern seen in the previous two years, whereby initial robust growth soon fades. Orders slumped 4.2% month-on-month during March, the steepest drop since January 2009. The downturn was led by a 12.5% collapse in orders for transportation goods. However, even excluding transport goods, orders fell 1.1% during the month, which was the worst performance since the start of last year.

Is the UK really back in recession?

Wed, 25 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK has sunk back into a recession, if the official first estimate of economic growth in the first quarter is to be believed. However, the underlying strength of the economy is probably much more robust than these data suggest. The danger is that these gloomy data deliver a fatal blow to the fragile revival of consumer and business confidence seen so far this year, harming the recovery and even sending the country back into a ‘real’ recession.

UK borrowing hits target in 2011-12 despite March disappointment

Tue, 24 Apr 2012 13:00:00 GMT

The UK's public sector deficit came in on target at £126bn in 2011-12, down sharply from £136.8bn in 2010-11, despite higher than expected borrowing in March. However, business survey data bode well for the government to meet its target for 2012-13, though it is unlikely to be an easy ride.

China’s growth slide contributing to labour market weakness

Mon, 23 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The latest ‘flash’ manufacturing PMI survey findings for China highlighted continued manufacturing weakness at the start of the second quarter, with the headline seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) coming in below the 50.0 mark that separates growth from contraction for the sixth month in succession. By rising from 48.3 to 49.1 in April, however, the index pointed to a slower pace of deterioration than in March, largely reflecting slower rates of decline of manufacturing production and new orders.

Eurozone sees stronger rate of decline at start of second quarter

Mon, 23 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell to a five-month low in April, according to the preliminary ‘flash’ reading which is based on around 85% of usual monthly replies. The index fell for the third month in a row to 47.4, down from 49.1 in March, to signal a faster rate of decline of private sector economic activity. Output has fallen seven times in the past eight months.

Week ahead economic calendar [23 - 27 Apr]: Markit flash PMIs to provide glimpse of second quarter growth profiles

Fri, 20 Apr 2012 15:00:00 GMT

A busy week of economic data releases starts with the publication of flash manufacturing numbers for China, which will provide the first indication of how the world’s second-largest economy is faring at the start of the second quarter. Attention will then shift to the Eurozone, with flash PMIs for France, Germany and the single currency area as a whole released in quick succession.

US Fed surveys hint at waning growth in April

Thu, 19 Apr 2012 16:00:00 GMT

The Philadelphia Fed survey of business conditions for April came in weaker than expected. The survey’s main index of business activity fell for the first time in five months, down from 12.5 in March to 8.5, reaching a three-month low.

US jobless claims trend higher for second week running

Thu, 19 Apr 2012 15:00:00 GMT

Initial claims for unemployment benefit in the US fell by 2,000 last week to 386,000. With the prior figure revised up to 388,000, the four-week moving average, which provides a better indication of the trend in the data, rose to 374,750, up for the second week running from the low of 363,000 seen at the end of March. The increase in claims is certainly a disappointment, especially as it follows a slowdown in employment growth in March. Non-farm payrolls had risen strongly in the first two months of the year but lost some momentum in March, with just 120,000 jobs added (the lowest rise since October and down sharply from 275,000 in January and 240,000 in February).

UK Business confidence surged higher in March

Thu, 19 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

UK business confidence surged higher in March, according to the first quarter IPA Bellwether survey of marketing trends, conducted by Markit. The survey, based on a panel of 300 senior marketing executives in UK-based companies, showed views on companies’ own financial prospects improving to the highest for two years, rebounding sharply from a near three-year low at the end of last year.

UK unemployment falls from 16-year high

Wed, 18 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Latest official data show a welcome drop in UK unemployment, but the labour market clearly remains very weak. High unemployment and low pay growth look set to continue to act as significant drags on economic growth in coming months.

China’s economic growth slide continues in the first quarter

Fri, 13 Apr 2012 11:00:00 GMT

China’s first quarter economic growth slowed to its weakest in nearly three years, according to official statistics published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) this morning. Gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annual rate of 8.1%, a marked slowdown on growth of 8.9% seen in the final quarter of last year and slower than many analysts had expected. The data were broadly in line with the Markit-compiled PMI surveys of manufacturing and service sector business conditions, which showed activity stagnating in March to round off the worst quarter for three years.

Week ahead economic calendar [16 - 20 Apr]: Data to round off Q1 global growth picture and provide insight into April trends

Fri, 13 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

US industrial production and retail sales to provide further clues on first quarter growth, while Eurozone surveys to highlight recession risk. There is no lack of data releases for the UK, where official data on retail sales, inflation and the labour market are accompanied by the publication of the minutes from the Bank of England's latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Output growth returns across EU sectors in Q1, but weak new business inflows lead to falling backlogs

Tue, 10 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

EU PMI data broken down into seven broad industry groups signalled a broad-based improvement in activity trends since the final quarter of 2011. Five registered growth, led by Technology, while Healthcare output was broadly stable and Consumer Services registered a weaker contraction.

Week ahead economic calendar [09 - 13 Apr]: Focus moves East as attentions shifts to China’s slowdown

Thu, 05 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

China takes centre stage in the economic diary, with the publication of key official statistics, including first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) and March data for industrial production, inflation, retail sales and international trade. The data will be scoured for further clues as to just how rapidly growth in the world’s second-largest economy is slowing, and to what extent the authorities may need to adjust policy.

US PMI surveys signal weaker economic growth in March, but still point to best quarter for a year with hiring running at fastest rate for over six years

Wed, 04 Apr 2012 18:00:00 GMT

The ISM non-manufacturing PMI for March disappointed, falling on February, but the survey remains in robust expansion territory. Combined with the ISM data on manufacturing, the surveys point to robust economic growth in the first quarter, with a solid rate of job creation accelerating further in March.

German industrial orders rise in February, but trend remains one of falling demand

Wed, 04 Apr 2012 15:00:00 GMT

German industrial orders disappointed again in February, reinforcing recent survey evidence which suggests that the manufacturing sector is struggling in the face of weak underlying demand from domestic and export markets. Germany is nevertheless still likely to have expanded in the first quarter, avoiding recession, but a return to contraction in the second quarter cannot be ruled out.

UK economy avoids recession by registering strongest quarter for a year as growth accelerates in March

Wed, 04 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

PMI data signalled that UK economic growth picked up in March to round off the strongest quarter for a year. The robust increase in output signalled by the PMI surveys suggests that the UK economy has escaped a slide back into recession. An upturn in business confidence in both construction and service sectors bodes well for future growth, though soft underlying order books may weigh on manufacturing.

Japan’s economy returned to growth in Q1, according to PMIs

Wed, 04 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Japan’s private sector ended the first quarter on a positive note, with both business activity and new orders rising at series record rates. What is most encouraging is that recent growth has been broad-based across manufacturing and services, a trend rarely seen in the history of the series. Manufacturing PMI data published last week showed factory output rising at the fastest rate in five months, while growth of service sector activity hit its highest on record.

PMI signals new recession in Eurozone

Wed, 04 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Latest PMI data provided further evidence of a mild contraction of the Eurozone private sector economy during March. The latest decline also meant that output fell over the first quarter as a whole, raising the likelihood that the economy has fallen back into technical recession. At 49.1 in March, the Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell to a three-month low, but came in above the earlier flash estimate of 48.7.

Solid upturn in global economy continued in March

Wed, 04 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

March PMI data rounded off a solid start to the year for the global economy. At 54.6, the JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index posted its second-highest reading in 13 months and was only marginally off February's high of 55.4. Output increased in both the manufacturing and service sectors.

US manufacturers boost output and payrolls in March, but order book growth slips due to weak export sales

Mon, 02 Apr 2012 17:00:00 GMT

The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose from 52.4 in February to 53.4 in March. With the exception of January’s recent peak of 54.1, the March reading was the highest since last June. For the first quarter as a whole, the PMI averaged 53.3, its strongest calendar quarter since the second quarter of last year.

Explaining China’s mixed PMI signals

Mon, 02 Apr 2012 17:00:00 GMT

The two PMI surveys for China released over the weekend provided a sharply divergent assessment of the health of the manufacturing industry in March. The Markit-compiled manufacturing PMI showed the sector slipping further into contraction – confirming the survey’s earlier ‘flash’ estimate published on March 22. In contrast, the NBS/CFLP survey pointed to the strongest improvement in operating conditions for a year. Why is this?

UK manufacturing growth accelerates but cost pressures surge higher

Mon, 02 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

March rounded off a positive start to 2012 for UK manufacturing, but conditions in the sector remain tough overall. Output and new orders expanded throughout the opening quarter, with rates of increase ticking higher at the end of Q1. However, the increase in output was heavily supported by a depletion in backlogs of work and record inventory building. Cost inflationary pressures are also intensifying due to high oil and metal prices.

Eurozone manufacturing downturn worsens in March

Mon, 02 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

At 47.7 in March, the seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to a three-month low (unchanged from the earlier flash estimate). New orders contracted at a faster rate than in February, leading to falling output and further job losses.

Greek manufacturing sector registers further steep contractions of output, new orders and employment

Mon, 02 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Operating conditions in the Greek manufacturing sector remained extremely challenging in March, with the headline PMI again posting well below the 50.0 no-change mark. Despite improving on February’s survey low of 37.7, March’s PMI reading of 41.3 was indicative of sharp manufacturing retrenchment.

Global manufacturing growth holds steady through Q1

Mon, 02 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The global manufacturing sector posted further modest expansions in production, new orders and employment at the end of Q1 2012. However, input cost inflationary pressure continued to surge upwards, mainly as a result of high oil and transportation prices. At 51.1 in March, little-changed from 51.2 in February, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI posted above the no-change mark of 50.0 for the fourth month running.

China: Manufacturing output decreases at the second-fastest rate in three years

Sun, 01 Apr 2012 12:00:00 GMT

March PMI data showed Chinese manufacturing production falling for the fourth time in the past five months. Factory output was reduced largely in response to lacklustre demand from domestic and external markets. New orders fell at the fastest rate in 2012 so far, while new export business decreased for a second month in succession.

Japan’s manufacturing sector ends Q1 on a positive note

Fri, 30 Mar 2012 11:00:00 GMT

Japan’s manufacturing sector climbed another rung on the growth ladder in March, rounding off a positive first quarter of 2012. This was signalled by the seasonally adjusted Markit/JMMA Purchasing Managers’ Index rising from 50.5 to a seven-month high of 51.1. The data add to evidence that Japan’s economy will return to growth in the first quarter, after contracting on a quarterly basis in Q4 2011, and chime with the sharp upward revision of Japan’s first-quarter growth forecast by the OECD earlier this week to 3.4% annualised.

Week ahead economic calendar [02 - 06 Apr]: PMIs, payrolls and policymaking fill busy week of economic news

Fri, 30 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

A tightly-filled week of economic data releases starts with a flood of manufacturing PMI releases. February data had shown only modest global growth of manufacturing, and March’s flash PMIs for the euro area and China have already shown the single currency area to be back in recession and growth slowing in the world’s second-largest economy.

UK: SMEs set to lead jobs growth over next 12 months, but large firms most upbeat regarding capex

Wed, 28 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Small and medium sized companies are set to be the main drivers of employment growth in the UK manufacturing sector over the next 12 months, according to the latest findings of the KPMG Global Business Outlook survey, compiled by Markit. However, the opposite is true with regards to capital expenditure, towards which large firms report the most positive intentions.

UK retail sales suggest far weaker start to the year than previously hoped

Fri, 23 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Initial upbeat news about consumer spending at the start of 2012 has withered away with news of a steep fall in retail sales in February and a far smaller rise than previously thought in January. The consumer is unlikely to have contributed much, if anything, to economic growth in the first quarter. If the UK escapes a double-dip recession, it may be by the smallest of margins.

Week ahead economic calendar [26 - 30 March]: Improved US indicators to contrast with Eurozone weakness

Fri, 23 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The message from the Eurozone flash PMIs that the region has likely sunk into another recession will be reflected in weak European Commission-sponsored business and consumer surveys, as well as the German IFO survey for March. German and Eurozone consumer price inflation numbers will also be watched for signs that higher oil prices could cause worries for policymakers at a time when signs of a renewed downturn will be applying pressure for more stimulus.

Eurozone slides back into recession as output falls at stronger rate in March

Thu, 22 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell from 49.3 in February to a three-month low of 48.7 in March, according to the preliminary ‘flash’ reading, which is based on around 85% of usual monthly replies. The latest reading signals a contraction in business activity for the second successive month, and the sixth decline in the past seven months.

China Manufacturing PMI falls in March to round off worst quarter for three years

Thu, 22 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

PMI survey data, compiled by Markit on behalf of HSBC, showed a steepening rate of decline of China’s manufacturing sector at the end of the first quarter. The headline HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 48.1 in March, from February’s four-month high of 49.6. Moreover, the PMI was at the second-lowest level in three years, with only last November (47.7) seeing business conditions deteriorate at a steeper rate.

UK inflation falls to 15-month low, but proves stickier than expected

Tue, 20 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

UK inflation fell to a 15-month low in February, pushed down by lower energy prices and aggressive price discounting by retailers. Further falls are likely in coming months, as retailers continue to struggle to attract hard-pressed consumers, although high oil prices mean the Bank of England's expectation that inflation will drop below its 2.0% target by the end of the year could prove too optimistic.

Week ahead economic calendar [19-23 Mar]: Flash PMIs to provide insights into Chinese and Eurozone growth

Fri, 16 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The first indications of the health of the Eurozone and Chinese economies in March will be provided by the flash PMIs. February’s surveys had shown the Eurozone sliding back into contraction, suggesting the region may be facing a double-dip recession. China’s PMI surveys meanwhile showed growth at a four-month high, confounding widespread expectations of a slowdown in the first quarter. After recent signs of robust economic growth, further clues as to the health of the US economy will be provided by home sales, house prices and housing starts data. An important week in the UK sees the Chancellor deliver the Budget on 21 March.

US manufacturing output trend hits 14-year high

Fri, 16 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

US manufacturing output rose 2.4% in the three months to February, its strongest three-month period of expansion since 1998.

US inflation hits 10-month high on oil price rise

Fri, 16 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

US inflation rose sharply in February, as expected, driven higher by gasoline prices. Although the annual rate of core inflation fell, the combination of rising prices and high unemployment is likely to continue to act as a brake on consumer spending growth.

Business surveys and jobless claims hint at robust US economy in March

Thu, 15 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's cautiously upbeat tone earlier in the week has been followed by further encouraging news on economic growth, with a downturn in jobless claims and positive business surveys from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserves pointing to robust economic growth in March. However, producer price data also showed an upturn in inflationary pressures, providing a reminder that high oil prices threaten to subdue demand and push up inflation.

UK unemployment remains stubbornly high amid weak demand for staff

Wed, 14 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The latest batch of labour market data point to stubbornly high unemployment, with hiring remaining subdued. Pay pressures were meanwhile again extremely muted, providing good news on the inflation front but bad news for hopes of a further revival in consumer spending.

Buoyant US job creation as economic growth hits 12-month high

Mon, 12 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The mood among US employers continued to brighten in February. Ongoing buoyant job creation was reported as firms sought to boost capacity to meet rising demand amid the strongest economic growth seen for 12 months.

China on track for soft landing

Mon, 12 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

After scaling back China’s 2012 economic growth target at the annual National People’s Congress (NPC) last week, the authorities published a host of weaker-than-expected economic indicators for the January-February period on Friday. The data were nevertheless broadly in line with the Markit-compiled PMI surveys of manufacturing and service sector business conditions, and suggest that the world’s second-largest economy is still on track for a soft landing.

Oil price spike drives global manufacturers’ input costs higher

Fri, 09 Mar 2012 16:00:00 GMT

The start of 2012 has seen a much stronger upturn in global economic growth than many had anticipated at the end of last year. However, the better global growth profile has coincided with an upturn in price pressures, which will worry policymakers. Higher oil prices were a key driver behind the steepest increase in businesses’ input costs for nine months in February, but spare capacity in supply chains helped to keep input cost inflation well below that seen a year ago.

Week ahead economic calendar [12 - 16 Mar]: Attention shifts to the US with Fed update on health of the recovery

Fri, 09 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

After the high drama of the race to get bondholders to sign up to the debt restructuring and unlock Greece’s second bail-out package, attention shifts to the US next week, with the FOMC meeting on Tuesday. No change in policy is expected from the Fed, mirroring the lack of action from recent ECB and Bank of England meetings, but Chairman Bernanke's speech on Wednesday is likely to be more interesting.

EU autos sector downturn continues as production and order books decline

Thu, 08 Mar 2012 15:00:00 GMT

Production in the EU’s automobiles sector fell modestly in February, according to sector PMI data compiled by Markit. Output has decreased in each of the past five months, with the latest decline stronger than in January though slightly less steep than late last year. The drop in production contrasts with marginal growth seen across the EU manufacturing sector as a whole. Such a below-par performance is unusual for the autos sector since the financial crisis, with autos generally outperforming total manufacturing from mid-2009 to early-2011, with sales boosted in part over this period by scrappage schemes.

EU detailed sector data show growth divergences in February

Wed, 07 Mar 2012 11:00:00 GMT

Following PMI data that showed national growth divergences across the European Union in February, detailed sector data also highlight differences at the industry, supersector and sector levels. Out of the 22 sectors covered by PMI data, ten reported an increase in business activity in February compared with one month earlier, after accounting for seasonal influences. Output rose most strongly in the pharmaceuticals & biotechnology sector, followed by industrial engineering and industrial metals & mining.

Brazil GDP shows modest recovery in fourth quarter

Tue, 06 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Official GDP data showed that the Brazilian economy grew in Q4 2011, in contrast to the revised marginal contraction reported during Q3. GDP for the final three months of 2011 was 0.3% higher quarter-on-quarter, and 1.4% greater than the same period a year earlier. The 0.3% GDP growth was broadly in line with expectations, and was correctly identified by HSBC Brazil PMI data, compiled by Markit. The HSBC Composite Output Index that covers both manufacturing and services business activity has been above the 50.0 no-change mark that separates growth from contraction in each month since last October.

Risks of UK recession fade as economic growth maintained in February

Mon, 05 Mar 2012 11:00:00 GMT

UK economic growth slowed in February, according to the PMI surveys, but the country still looks likely to avoid a slide back into recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of falls in economic output – following a 0.2% contraction of gross domestic product (GDP) in the final quarter of last year.

Eurozone shows renewed contraction due to drop in services activity

Mon, 05 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell from 50.4 in January to 49.3 in February, dropping below the earlier flash estimate of 49.7. The final reading confirmed that business activity contracted in February, having briefly returned to growth in January following four months of decline at the end of last year.

Activity growth across China’s combined manufacturing and service sector the strongest in four months

Mon, 05 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

February data signalled renewed growth of business activity across the combined manufacturing and service sector, with the HSBC Composite Output Index up from 49.7 to 51.8. The overall expansion reflected a broad stabilisation of manufacturing production and stronger growth of service sector activity.

Week ahead economic calendar [05 – 09 Mar]: ECB to mull growth versus austerity in light of GDP and PMI numbers

Fri, 02 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Meetings at the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Canada are not expected to bring about any change in monetary policy, although many analysts continue to hold out hope for a 25 basis point cut in the ECB’s policy rate to help boost economic growth in the face of austerity. Attention will no doubt be more heavily focused on Greece’s progress in completing its debt restructuring. As far as economic data releases are concerned, the week’s diary is busy, commencing with services/non-manufacturing PMIs. After manufacturing PMIs lost some ground in the US and UK, and remained in contraction territory in the Eurozone and China, these numbers will be watched closely and round off the global PMI picture for February.

China Manufacturing PMI signals broad stabilisation of output, but new export business decreases

Thu, 01 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

February HSBC PMI data showed Chinese manufacturing output rising at a negligible rate. Intakes of new work fell for a fourth month in succession, while new export business decreased at the sharpest rate since June last year. Despite this, companies added to their staff numbers, with jobs growth the highest in nine months.

Signs of stabilisation in Eurozone manufacturing soured by survey-record contraction in Greece

Thu, 01 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Eurozone manufacturing sector showed further signs of stabilisation in February. The seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to a six-month high of 49.0, unchanged from the earlier flash estimate and above January’s 48.8.

Greece Manufacturing PMI at survey-record low

Thu, 01 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Greece's Manufacturing PMI, a composite indicator designed to provide a snapshot of the performance of the manufacturing economy, fell to a survey low of 37.7 in February. Data have been collected since May 1999. Moreover, the PMI has now posted sub-50.0 readings in each of the past 30 months.

UK Manufacturing PMI: output growth slows as order inflows stabilise and cost pressures rise sharply

Thu, 01 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

UK manufacturing production and employment continued to expand during February, according to the latest survey by Markit and CIPS. However, the headwinds faced by the sector were brought into sharper focus by the latest data. Inflows of total new work and export orders were both broadly unchanged following mild gains in January, while cost inflationary pressures rose sharply.

Japan Manufacturing PMI paints picture of stability; headwinds remain

Thu, 01 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

PMI survey data painted a broadly stable picture of Japanese manufacturing sector operating conditions in February, with the headline seasonally adjusted Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI dipping from 50.7 to 50.5. Companies noted higher output and new order levels, with growth centred on investment goods producers in both cases. In contrast, new export orders fell at a solid rate, providing evidence to suggest that domestic consumption was the principal driver of total new order growth during the month.

Global manufacturing growth continues despite rising cost pressures

Thu, 01 Mar 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI broadly held its ground at 51.1 in February, little-changed from 51.3 in January, to signal an improvement in operating conditions for the third straight month. Levels of output, new orders and employment all moved higher.

Week ahead economic calendar [27 Feb – 02 Mar]: More summits, ECB action and worldwide manufacturing PMIs

Fri, 24 Feb 2012 16:00:00 GMT

The G20 finance ministers’ meeting at the weekend and EU leaders summit on Thursday will no doubt ensure Greece and the Eurozone debt saga continue to dominate the headlines. Economy watchers will meanwhile be kept busy with a flood of data, including the world-wide manufacturing PMIs.

UK CBI survey joins PMI in signalling upbeat start to the year

Thu, 23 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

A buoyant CBI industrial trends survey provides further welcome evidence that the UK economy will avoid a slide back into recession. The CBI's measure of order book volumes surged higher in February, matched by a similar jump in the exports measure.

PMI data show China on track for soft landing

Wed, 22 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

A stabilisation of manufacturing business conditions indicates that the Chinese economy remains on course for a soft landing. The HSBC Manufacturing PMI for China rose to a four-month high in February, according to ‘flash’ data compiled by Markit. At 49.7, up from 48.8 in January, the index remained below the 50.0 mark which separates expansion from contraction for the seventh time in the past eight months, contrasting sharply with the strong expansion signalled at the start of 2011. However, the current level of the PMI indicated only a marginal deterioration of business conditions and suggests that economic growth continued to run at an annual rate of approximately 9.0%.

Eurozone business activity slips back into contraction in February

Wed, 22 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell to 49.7 in February, according to the preliminary ‘flash’ reading. The latest figure signalled a slight contraction in business activity, but was nevertheless the second-highest of the past six months and suggests that the Eurozone economy has stabilised over the first two months of the year.

Bank of England considered larger stimulus at latest policy meeting

Wed, 22 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The minutes from the latest Bank of England monetary policy meeting showed some members saw the need for a bigger stimulus than the £50bn asset purchase extension that was agreed. But recent data suggest that the Bank may hold fire on further asset purchases.

UK borrowing figures improve on back of record rise in tax receipts

Tue, 21 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

UK net public sector borrowing, excluding financial interventions made during the financial crisis, showed a surplus of £7.75bn in January, better than the expected £6.3bn surplus anticipated by economists polled by Reuters and the best figure for four years. The improvement takes the total deficit for the financial year-to-date to £93.5bn, down from £109.1bn last year.

February PMI data to provide first insight into China and Eurozone economies

Fri, 17 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Recent developments in Europe will keep next week’s focus firmly on the debt crisis and economic outlook. Stabilising the economies and finances of the EU will remain the critical pivots around which the crisis rotates. With this in mind, the coming week will see a raft of Markit PMI survey data for the Eurozone and China economies. The release of the minutes from the February 8th-9th meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will, meanwhile, give greater detail on the decision to raise QE by £50 billion. The week ends with the second estimate of fourth quarter UK GDP.

Growing signs of UK job market stabilisation despite further rise in unemployment

Wed, 15 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Latest official statistics suggest a stabilisation in the UK job market at the end of 2011. Although unemployment climbed 48,000 to 2.67 million in the three months to December, the latest rise was the smallest since last summer and well below the strong rates of increase seen in the interim.

Italy enters technical recession in Q4 2011

Wed, 15 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Italy’s economy shrank at a quarterly rate of 0.7% in the final quarter of last year, according to the official flash estimate. The decline in gross domestic product (GDP) was stronger than expected, and sharper than the unrevised 0.2% decline recorded for the three months to September 2011.

Week ahead economic calendar [13 – 17 Feb]: Economic data to provide insight into sustainability of global growth uplift

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Next week brings news on economic growth in the euro area for the final quarter of 2011. Data available so far, including a raft of weak business surveys, suggest that the region’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by around 0.6%. The health of the US economy also comes under scrutiny with the publication of industrial production, retail sales and inflation numbers. Meanwhile, the Bank of England's latest inflation and growth forecasts are published in its Inflation Report on Wednesday. The UK also sees inflation and labour market data during the week.

Improved manufacturing performance drives UK trade deficit to near nine-year low

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Data from the Office for National Statistics add to signs that the worst may be over for the UK economy and that a double-dip recession will be avoided. Industrial production grew a better-than-expected 0.5% on a monthly basis in December, with manufacturing output rising 1.0%. The improvement in manufacturing meant that the rate of decline over the three months to December - a more reliable guide to the underlying health of the sector - eased from 1.0% to 0.8%, the weakest reduction for three months. This tallies with data from the Markit/CIPS PMI survey, which showed a similar easing in December, but encouragingly also showed a resounding return to growth in January.

Germany: Industrial production collapses in December, but improvement still expected for January

Tue, 07 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Industrial production fell a huge 2.7% in December, adding to evidence that the German economy probably contracted in the final quarter of 2011. The consensus according to Reuters was for only a 0.3% decline in December.

Sector PMIs: Broad-based upturn across Europe’s private sector in January

Tue, 07 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Following PMI data that signalled a stabilisation of Eurozone output, faster UK growth and improved snapshots of the Czech and Polish manufacturing economies in January, EU PMI sector data highlight the broadbased nature of the uptick in performance across the region. Of 22 sectors covered, growth of output was signalled in 11.

China PMI data signal stagnation of output and employment at start of 2012, but forward-looking indicators raise hopes of soft-landing

Tue, 07 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Better than expected economic data for China at the start of 2012 provided encouraging news that the world’s sector largest economy can avoid a hard-landing, as its property market cools rather than collapses and the authorities fine-tune policy to help support economic growth.

Hiring picks up as US economy gathers steam in January

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 17:00:00 GMT

The flow of upbeat news on the health of the US economy shows no sign of abating. A better than expected non-manufacturing survey from the ISM added to a buoyant sister survey of manufacturing earlier in the week. The combined message from the two surveys is that the US economy grew at the fastest rate for ten months in January.

PMI data paint broadly stagnant picture of overall Chinese business conditions at start of 2012

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Business activity across the combined Chinese manufacturing and service sector broadly stagnated at the start of 2012, with the HSBC Composite Output Index falling from 50.8 to 49.7. There were divergences by industry, however, with continued manufacturing weakness contrasting with steady growth of services output.

Eurozone economy stabilises in January, with growth seen in Germany and France and slower declines in Spain and Italy

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Business activity in the Eurozone private economy was broadly unchanged in January, though a marginal increase in activity represents an improvement on the contractions seen at the end of last year. The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index posted 50.4 in January, up from 48.3 in December and above the no-change mark of 50.0 for the first time in five months.

UK economy shows renewed vigour in January

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The pace of UK economic growth picked up momentum at the start of 2012, with businesses reporting the largest increase in activity for ten months. The data fuel hopes that the UK economy may avoid a slide back into recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of economic decline – following a 0.2% contraction of gross domestic product (GDP) in the final quarter of last year.

Week ahead economic calendar [06 – 10 Feb]: Central banks mull better than expected economic data

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

After a flurry of better than expected PMI data signalled a reduced risk of the UK and Eurozone sliding back into recession, attention shifts to how policymakers will respond. Monthly policy meetings at the Bank of England and ECB form the highlights of the week. The upturn in the UK PMIs has led some analysts to revise down their predictions of a further £75bn extension of the Bank’s asset purchase programme, though the consensus is for a £50bn increase.

Global economic growth accelerates at start of 2012

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Global economic growth hit an 11-month high in January, as inflows of new business trengthened. Job creation also posted a modest bounce, with the rate of increase in payroll numbers the quickest since March last year. The JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index rose for the third month running to reach 54.6.

UK manufacturing springs into life in January

Wed, 01 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Manufacturing production grew at the fastest rate for ten months in January, rising for the second month in a row on the back of a return to growth of new orders. The improvements to output and new orders pushed the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI up from 49.7 in December to 52.1 in January, its highest reading since last May.

Eurozone manufacturing downturn eases as Germany returns to growth

Wed, 01 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The downturn in the Eurozone manufacturing sector eased further at the start of 2012. The seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose for the second month running in January. Although below 50.0 and therefore still signalling a worsening of business conditions, the index hit a five-month high of 48.8, up from 46.9 in December.

Survey-record fall in Greek manufacturing output signalled in January

Wed, 01 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Greece’s manufacturing sector remained deep in recession during January, with output, new orders and employment all declining at severe rates. Issues associated with poor cash flow and liquidity were reported by panellists as key factors impacting negatively on their own business performance and client demand at the start of 2012.

Asian manufacturing stabilises at start of 2012

Wed, 01 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Asian manufacturers saw a stabilisation of business conditions in January. The PMI for the region rose from 49.4 in December to 50.1, breaking above the 50 no-change level for the first time since October, though signalling only a marginal improvement in operating conditions during the month.

Eurozone: rising retail sales in Germany contrast with steepening downturns in France and Italy

Mon, 30 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Biting austerity measures and economic uncertainty appear to be driving wide differences in retail sales across the Eurozone. Retail PMI data showed large variations in sales between the three largest Eurozone countries in January. Rising sales in Germany contrasted with increased rates of decline in France and Italy, with the latter registering the steepest monthly fall since data were first collected in 2004.

Week ahead economic calendar [30 Jan – 03 Feb]: PMIs, payrolls and bank lending provide focal points to the week ahead

Fri, 27 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The weekend events at Davos and Monday’s EU summit will no doubt provide headlines for a week where minds will be focused on the Eurozone debt crisis. But the week also sees a flurry of major economic data releases that will help determine the health of the world’s major economies at the start of 2012. January global PMI data for manufacturing are released on Wednesday, followed by services (or non-manufacturing, in the case of the US) on Friday. The US labour report is also released on Friday, with the headline-grabbing US non-farm payrolls number the main highlight.

UK economy contracts 0.2% in final quarter of 2011

Wed, 25 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK economy contracted in the final quarter of last year, with gross domestic product (GDP) falling 0.2%. The decline was the first for a year and contrasted with a 0.6% expansion in the third quarter.

German IFO survey adds to signs that economic growth has rebounded in January

Wed, 25 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

An upturn in the IFO business survey adds to recent signs that Germany may avoid a double-dip recession. The IFO’s headline Business Climate index rose from 107.3 in December to 108.3 in January, hitting its highest level since August.

Eurozone: Stabilisation of output fails to prevent first fall in employment since spring 2010

Tue, 24 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index moved into positive territory for the first time in five months in January, according to the preliminary ‘flash’ reading which is based on around 85% of usual monthly replies. The index rose for the third month running, up from 48.3 in December to a five-month high of 50.4. That signalled a marginal increase in private sector economic activity.

UK public debt tops £1tn, but borrowing continues to fall on 2011

Tue, 24 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Public sector net debt, excluding financial interventions made during the financial crisis, edged above the £1 trillion mark for the first time ever in December. However, more importantly, borrowing continued to come down compared to the previous year, dropping £2.2bn in December.

Week ahead economic calendar [23 – 27 Jan]: Fourth quarter US and UK GDP news eagerly awaited

Fri, 20 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

A busy week features fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) reports for the US and UK, plus the Markit Eurozone PMI™ and IFO surveys as well as updates on policy from the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan.

UK unemployment at 17-year high as job market outlook remains subdued

Wed, 18 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

UK unemployment has risen further, increasing by 118,000 in the three months to November. At 2.685 million, the total is the highest for over 17 years. According to the internationally comparable (ILO) measure, the rate of unemployment edged higher, from 8.3% to 8.4%.

China to continue along path of gradual policy easing

Tue, 17 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

China’s economy grew at its weakest annual rate for two-and-a-half years in the final quarter of 2011. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed for the fourth successive quarter, dropping from 9.1% in the third quarter to 8.9%. The slowdown was less steep than many analysts had expected, however, and was accompanied by better-than-expected data on industrial production and retail sales for December. The current data flow therefore suggests that a “soft landing” scenario is on the cards, meaning the authorities are likely to persist with gradual policy easing at present rather than adopting a more aggressive stance as they did in response to the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Week ahead economic calendar [16 – 20 Jan]: China growth data to provide policy guidance

Fri, 13 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Attention shifts to China, where the first estimate of gross domestic product in the final quarter of last year will shed light on how the rate of growth in the world’s second-largest economy has been affected by the eurozone crisis. Markit’s flash HSBC Manufacturing PMI for China will likewise steer views on policy in China, providing a glimpse of activity in January. Over in Europe, the UK sees the publication of inflation, retail sales and labour market data for December. A short week in the US sees industrial production and inflation data for December as main highlights to the release diary.

UK manufacturing output trends down at steepest rate since September 2009

Thu, 12 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

More signs of the UK economy slipping closer to another recession appeared today with UK industrial production dropping 0.6% in November. Moreover, the 0.9% rate of decline in the three-month rate of manufacturing output is the steepest seen since September 2009.

Bank of England holds policy unchanged

Thu, 12 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

As expected, the Bank of England left policy unchanged at its January Monetary Policy Committee meeting, maintaining Bank Rate at 0.5% and its asset purchase programme at £275bn.

Eurozone manufacturing output falls at fastest trend rate in two-and-a-half years

Thu, 12 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Both industrial production and manufacturing output in the euro area fell 0.1% in November. The drop in manufacturing output was the third in succession, taking production 2.4% below the peak seen in August. In the three months to November, output was 1.2% below the prior three months, signalling the steepest downward trend rate since June 2009.

ECB holds rates steady amid improved news flow

Thu, 12 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The European Central Bank held its main policy rate unchanged at 1.0% in January, as widely expected. The euro rallied as ECB President Mario Draghi noted that the recent initiatives to boost liquidity in the banking system appear to have helped prevent a credit squeeze and that business surveys had shown signs of stabilising, albeit at a low level.

UK trade balance worsens but export trend shows signs of revival

Wed, 11 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

UK goods exports fell in November. However, exports nevertheless appear to have regained a modest upward trend in recent months, which is likely to have persisted into December. Trade is nevertheless unlikely to contribute strongly to UK economic growth in 2012, which looks set to be a challenging year.

Welcome signs of receding global inflationary pressures in Q4

Wed, 11 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The global economy saw a welcome easing in cost pressures at the end of 2011. Global input prices rose at the slowest pace in two years over Q4, according to PMI surveys, and at a much slower rate than the near record increases seen at the start of the year. Cost inflation may well creep up again, however. The recent easing has been largely led by manufacturing, with service sector cost increases remaining stubbornly high. However, recent oil price strength could potentially hurt manufacturers and service providers alike, causing input cost inflation to rise again. This may muddy the inflation waters for central bankers looking to maintain, or even increase, the flow of monetary support in 2012.

EU banking sector activity falls for seventh month running

Tue, 10 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

European Union PMI sector data signalled a contraction of the banking sector for the seventh month running in December. Moreover, the rate of contraction accelerated in December to the fastest since July 2009, and banks recorded a lower Business Activity Index than any other sector among 22 covered by PMI data.

Week ahead economic calendar [09-13 Jan]: All eyes on ECB for policy update as crisis rolls on

Fri, 06 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

With the Eurozone debt crisis driving market direction, and Italian and Spanish bond auctions scheduled for later in the week, all eyes will be on the European Central Bank’s policy decision on Thursday to see if the central bank is prepared to take further measures to support the region’s flagging economy, banking system and debt markets

UK PMI surveys signal December upturn, but economy likely stagnated in Q4

Thu, 05 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Faster growth of services and construction activity, alongside a stabilisation of manufacturing output, in December suggests the pace of economic growth accelerated slightly at the end of 2011. But growth over the fourth quarter as a whole looks likely to have been the weakest since the tail-end of the recession in the second quarter of 2009.

Chinese business activity returns to growth in December

Thu, 05 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Composite HSBC PMI data (covering manufacturing and services) signalled a renewed expansion of business activity during December. This was indicated by a rise in the seasonally adjusted Composite Output Index from 48.9 to 50.8.

Stabilisation of Japanese private sector activity

Thu, 05 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Business activity in the Japanese service sector returned to growth during December, although the rate of expansion was only slight. Looking ahead, companies expressed renewed optimism about the one-year business outlook.

Global economic growth revives to nine-month high in December

Thu, 05 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The global economy finished 2011 with an uplift in the rate of growth. December’s purchasing manager surveys from around the world signalled the strongest monthly expansion of private sector economic activity since March.

Eurozone downturn continues at end of 2011

Wed, 04 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Business activity in the Eurozone private economy contracted for the fourth straight month in December. At 48.3, up from 47.0 in the previous month, the final Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index came in above the flash estimate of 47.9 and signalled the weakest rate of decline for three months.

UK manufacturing production stagnates in December

Tue, 03 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The UK manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilisation at the end of 2011. Production was broadly unchanged in December, following back-to-back contractions, and the rate of decline in new orders slowed as the trend in new exports strengthened.

Global PMI climbs to six-month high, led by US upturn

Tue, 03 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

Purchasing surveys signalled the first improvement in worldwide manufacturing conditions for four months in December. However, trends varied markedly around the globe, with US producers providing one of the few encouraging bright spots in an otherwise downbeat series of national reports.

Eurozone manufacturing growth in Q4 weakest since mid-2009

Mon, 02 Jan 2012 12:00:00 GMT

The downturn in the Eurozone manufacturing sector extended into a fifth successive month in December, as companies faced declining order inflows, a slowing global economy and ongoing financial market turbulence.