Markit US and Municipal CDS

Flights to Safety

Fri, 11 May 2012 21:00:00 GMT

European sovereign debt woes and political uncertainty inspired flight to quality moves pushing US Treas and municipal bond yields lower.

Banging Away

Fri, 13 Apr 2012 20:00:00 GMT

U.S.5Y CDS spreads tightened to levels not seen since late 2009 on economic recovery hopes. So far increased activity for U.S. municipal CDS has been seen since standardization and contract changes but time will tell if the uptick in activity can be sustained.

Muni Bang

Fri, 09 Mar 2012 22:00:00 GMT

Municipal CDS ended the week quietly with levels only slightly wider from the prior week. Upcoming changes to municipal CDS contracts to make them more fungible hopefully will add liquidity and generate further investor interest in the product.

More Patient

Fri, 02 Mar 2012 21:00:00 GMT

There was muted reaction in municipal CDS spreads despite Stockton, CA's intention to miss some bond payments and enter into negotiations with creditors to avoid a Ch 9 bankruptcy filing. US CDS spreads remained at 36bp this week.

Extended

Fri, 17 Feb 2012 21:00:00 GMT

Congress reached a bipartisan deal to extend payroll tax cuts and unemployments. In the municipal bond markets, primary supply was well received but the low rate environment may prove challenging for maintaining secondary pricing levels as investors could become tempted to add risk.

Attention and Budget Deficits

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 22:00:00 GMT

Treasury and municipal markets, like other assets, tended to follow Greece headlines this week. The US Treasury released January budget deficit figures today and municipal market participants fret over a proposal in the President's FY2013 budget.

Dearth and Taxes

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 22:00:00 GMT

A strong US jobs report has prompted the risk-on trade prompting yields to rise for US Treasuries and municipals. Congress is considerig the extension of payroll tax cuts again. A dearth of new issuance and strong demand is helping keep munis well bid.

Right to Work in the Rust Belt

Fri, 27 Jan 2012 21:00:00 GMT

Municipal CDS spreads were little changed as concerns in the cash market about issuance this week did not materialize; deals were well received. Indiana, broader national trends, is likely to become the 23rd right to work state in the nation. US CDS tightened week over the week but lost some momentum after a more dovish Fed revealed itself.

Muni Rally Slows

Fri, 20 Jan 2012 21:00:00 GMT

The rally in municipals showed signs of slowing this week in both the cash and municipal CDS markets. The next request for an increase in the US debt ceiling may come just ahead of the November elections possibly being a source of political campaign drama.

Muni Rally Continues Unabated

Fri, 13 Jan 2012 21:00:00 GMT

Munis continued to rally broadly this week as new issuance has been low. US CDS along with Treasury yields were tighter on some signs of concern from investors over Europe.

Munis Build Momentum

Fri, 06 Jan 2012 21:00:00 GMT

The municipal credit markets started the year off strong with a solid rally as retail money came into the bond market; municipal CDS followed. US CDS spreads has stayed relatively flat as many expect this year to be more about campaigning and elections rather than events with credit implications.

Politics in the New Usual

Fri, 2 Dec 2011 21:00:00 GMT

Payroll tax cut extensions appear stalled in the US Senate; opposition in the House seems significant as well. Technicals and large unwinds appear to be the culprit in Tuesday's unexpected widening in municipal CDS.

Divisons and Issuance

Fri, 18 Nov 2011 22:00:00 GMT

Expectations are that the Super Committee will not reach a finalized deal by deadline. Spread widening in US CDS has been far more subtle than that seen ahead of the US debt ceiling debate. In municipals, this week saw the largest amount of issuance thus far this year as issuers rushed to market ahead of the holiday season.

Super Committee, Super Filing

Fri, 11 Nov 2011 22:00:00 GMT

US CDS spreads are widening ahead of a looming deadline for the Super Committee. We also discuss municipal CDS and bond market reaction to the largest municipal bankruptcy filing in U.S. history.

Go Big or...

Fri, 4 Nov 2011 22:00:00 GMT

US CDS has tracked events in Europe more than the latest headlines re: the Super Committee. Municipal markets see uptick in issuance but may outperform Treasuries if investors add risk.

Keeping Up With the Joneses

Fri, 28 Oct 2011 22:00:00 GMT

US CDS spreads are tightening despite increased talk that the 'Super Committee' is running behind on coming up with a deficit reduction plan. Rust Belt states are the focus of news in municipals this week.

Harrisburg and Washington

Fri, 14 Oct 2011 21:00:00 GMT

US CDS spreads diverged with 10Y bond yields this week as risk sentiment improved. Harrisburg's attempts at a Chapter 9 bankruptcy filing moved headlines but had little market impact.

Wrecking the Party?

Fri, 30 Sep 2011 21:00:00 GMT

It was a slow week in the municipal and US CDS market as investors' attention was fixed on Europe. Both tracked the bond markets and there is some talk in the muni market that yields not following US ten-year yields lower may be an opportunity.

Twisting in the Wind

Fri, 23 Sep 2011 21:00:00 GMT

US and municipal CDS spreads diverged from cash this week with CDS spreads widening despite Operation Twist pushing yields lower.

Munis Strong Against the Wind

Fri, 16 Sep 2011 21:00:00 GMT

Municipal CDS tracked cash markets stronger this week despite a couple of municipalities on the brink of bankruptcy and President Obama's jobs plan that would chip away at tax exemption.

Everything But Rhetoric

Fri, 09 Sep 2011 21:00:00 GMT

President Barack Obama's speech was much anticipated but seemed to shed little insight into policy even if it is likely representative of the tone in the upcoming 2012 presidential elections.

Stage for September

Fri, 26 Aug 2011 21:00:00 GMT

US CDS now at levels close to those seen right around the S&P warning of a US downgrade in mid-April. Also, monoline CDS reaction to new S&P ratings criteria.

Flight to Relative Safety

Fri, 19 Aug 2011 21:00:00 GMT

US credit risk benefited from flight to safe haven assets. Munis showed some signs of benefiting as well but CDS spreads for New Jersey widened following Fitch's one notch downgrade.

Waterfall Effects

Fri, 12 Aug 2011 21:00:00 GMT

US CDS reaction was placid to the US rating downgrade, particularly compared to other markets. Muni CDS did finish the week much wider despite a rally on Friday.

Ringing in the Ears

Fri, 05 Aug 2011 21:00:00 GMT

US CDS curve inversion reverses as debt ceiling deal is reached. Net notional for US increased in the run-up to the deal. Muni CDS widened in spite of the deal being passed as risky assets across the board sold off this week due to economic concerns.

Down to the Wire

Fri, 29 Jul 2011 21:00:00 GMT

The US CDS curve strongly inverted this week as the debt ceiling debate goes down to the wire. Contagion, American-style, may be coming to municipals.

Compromise and Mutually Assured Dissatisfaction

Fri, 22 Jul 2011 21:00:00 GMT

The US CDS market rallied this week on reported progress of a compromise deal on raising the US debt ceiling but challenges remain. Moody's review action of five states with 'AAA' ratings had a negative effect on sentiment in the municipal CDS market.

Deal or No Deal?

Fri, 15 Jul 2011 21:00:00 GMT

Following Moody's announcement of a ratings review and S&P's threat to downgrade US sovereign debt if any payment (not just debt payments), the inversion of the 1Y-5Y increases.

A New, Cordial Tone

Fri, 08 Jul 2011 21:00:00 GMT

As the debt ceiling limit deadline looms, both sides take a friendlier tone. California and Illinois municipal CDS also caught a rally this past week.

A Debate for All Seasons

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 21:00:00 GMT

CDS levels for the US Gov't and Municipals ahead of the Congressional July 4th recess and the first day of the new fiscal year for many states.