Marknomics -The economics of market

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Sun, 02 Sep 2018 13:31:00 +0000

So would student loans be the next subprime. Just check people above 60 category which most probably going to be be delinquent

Unemployment rates

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 13:50:00 +0000

The eternal discussion between QE and Austerity continues as Employments figure just gives a glimpse of these phenomena

Bank and Stress Test

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 19:55:00 +0000

A look of how banks perform in the stress test. the graphic shows the break down of tier 1 capital as well as their loan portfolio

The World by its resources

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 17:22:00 +0000

Quantitative Easing and Austerity

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 10:04:00 +0000

Euro zone continues to lag behind the world in economic activity. this economic inertia will weigh upon Euro. Sharp contrast between american recovery and European recovery can bee seen in Euro/USD. Perhaps this economic recovery is also lead to debate on Quantitative Easing Vs Austerity

Sugar Break Out

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 08:54:00 +0000

Long Term Interest Rate

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 13:48:00 +0000

WTI - Brent Spreads

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 17:29:00 +0000

The spreads have been widening again, as Brent contniues to trade on premium as Iran crisis refuses to settle down . The Spread might hit the low of 19 and then 23 if the volumes continues to shift from WTI to Brent

Energy Outlook

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 12:31:00 +0000

BP has come out with their annual outlook and they have an interesting take on Future of Energy demand and supply.Interestingly clean and alternative fuel will have an prominent role to play

*Source - BP

The Complete Report

GDP Per Person

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 16:51:00 +0000

The Age of BRIC Nation has arrived The chart suggest the change in GDP per person in last decade. BRIC nation have shown commendable growth in GDP person ( also consider the population of these countries )

Source - The Economist

Initial Jobless Claims

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 18:37:00 +0000

Positive data from US as Initial Jobless Claim continues its downward trend.

Euro Zone Credit Ratings

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 08:30:00 +0000

Oil Transit Points

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 18:14:00 +0000

The illustration depicts the importance of Strait of Hormuz. With continued tensions in Iran, Oil prices will continue to remain at higher levels

More Jobs in South Asia

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Sat, 14 Jan 2012 14:37:00 +0000

Open publication - Free publishing - More job quality

Brent WTI Widening

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 14:28:00 +0000

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Commodity Index will raise the weighting of Brent crude in 2012 as it reduces that of West Texas Intermediate. The index weight of Brent crude traded on the ICE Futures Europe exchange will increase to 17.35 percent from 15.93 percent as the share of WTI traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange decreases to 30.25 percent from 32.59 percent, according to a company statement dated yesterday….

Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index announced Oct. 11 it will include Brent for the first time in January, with a weighting of 5.31 percent, and cut its WTI allocation to 9.69 percent from 14.71 percent.

Moreover, tensions in Hormuz strait,Nigeria and Kazakhstan will keep an upward pressure on Brent, thus widening WTI-Brent Spreads

Friday the 13th

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 08:37:00 +0000

Contrary to common belief, Friday the 13th is not that scary for the markets.

DJIA returns on friday the 13th

Source- Bespoke Investment

Correlations

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 14:51:00 +0000

*source Factor Ad visors, Reformed Broker

Unemployment statistics

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 12:46:00 +0000

The ADP Unemployment figures in the US has been encouraging , though its important to see NFP data today by Department of Labor. the ADP numbers and DoL numbers generally are in the same trend and they are rarely off the mark.So the trend continues to harbinger encouraging figures from US

Iran Oil Export

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 15:43:00 +0000

Countries to which Iran exports Oil

Asset classes

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 10:40:00 +0000

How Asset classes performed last month.

Euro Bearish ?

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 11:20:00 +0000

*source - Societe General Research

Hedge funds have been building short positions on Euro. position of this scale has not been observed in while. it seems the fund managers are unanimous about the direction of Euro against dollar. but we can see that the last time when market was such bearish about Euro , what followed next was a complete reversal. i think one needs to be extremely cautious going short at this stage .

FT Alphaville awards

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 09:52:00 +0000

Shifting Trends in World Trade

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 15:00:00 +0000

An enterprising Englishman in 1850s famously said that if the "could add an inch of material to every China man's shirt- tail, the mills of Lancashire could be kept busy for a generation " - Economist

The next decade will see a role reversal in world trade. The devloping countries would be consuming and they will form the major chunk of reports .

MF Global Bankruptcy - The real reason

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 09:59:00 +0000

MF’s main business was executing and clearing trades for clients. The company was a dinosaur. It still took most of its orders over the phone, long after the industry had shifted to electronic trading. Not surprisingly, MF reported net losses for each of the past four fiscal years. Its $186.6 million loss last quarter was its biggest.

Most of the quarter’s red ink came from writing down something called deferred-tax assets. Basically this item represented the money MF had thought it would save on taxes in the future, assuming it would be profitable. Net deferred taxes stood at $108.3 million as of March 31, according to MF’s 2011 annual report, which was the last time the company provided a detailed tax footnote.

MF wrote down that figure entirely last quarter. In essence, MF’s executives were admitting they couldn’t figure out how to make money.

Interesting take on the real reason which led to the fall of MF Global. Read the complete report here

Joseph Stiglitz: On Depression

noreply@blogger.com (Ajit) — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 12:30:00 +0000

One of the best insights in to depression. Please read the complete article here

Joseph Stiglitz: “A Banking System is Supposed to Serve Society, Not the Other Way Around”

Many have argued that the Depression was caused primarily by excessive tightening of the money supply on the part of the Federal Reserve Board. Ben Bernanke, a scholar of the Depression, has stated publicly that this was the lesson he took away, and the reason he opened the monetary spigots. He opened them very wide. Beginning in 2008, the balance sheet of the Fed doubled and then rose to three times its earlier level. Today it is $2.8 trillion. While the Fed, by doing this, may have succeeded in saving the banks, it didn’t succeed in saving the economy.

Reality has not only discredited the Fed but also raised questions about one of the conventional interpretations of the origins of the Depression. The argument has been made that the Fed caused the Depression by tightening money, and if only the Fed back then had increased the money supply—in other words, had done what the Fed has done today—a full-blown Depression would likely have been averted. In economics, it’s difficult to test hypotheses with controlled experiments of the kind the hard sciences can conduct. But the inability of the monetary expansion to counteract this current recession should forever lay to rest the idea that monetary policy was the prime culprit in the 1930s. The problem today, as it was then, is something else. The problem today is the so-called real economy. It’s a problem rooted in the kinds of jobs we have, the kind we need, and the kind we’re losing, and rooted as well in the kind of workers we want and the kind we don’t know what to do with. The real economy has been in a state of wrenching transition for decades, and its dislocations have never been squarely faced. A crisis of the real economy lies behind the Long Slump, just as it lay behind the Great Depression.

For the past several years, Bruce Greenwald and I have been engaged in research on an alternative theory of the Depression—and an alternative analysis of what is ailing the economy today. This explanation sees the financial crisis of the 1930s as a consequence not so much of a financial implosion but of the economy’s underlying weakness. The breakdown of the banking system didn’t culminate until 1933, long after the Depression began and long after unemployment had started to soar. By 1931 unemployment was already around 16 percent, and it reached 23 percent in 1932. Shantytown “Hoovervilles” were springing up everywhere. The underlying cause was a structural change in the real economy: the widespread decline in agricultural prices and incomes, caused by what is ordinarily a “good thing”—greater productivity.