This is not an uncommon thing.

It’s a $2 fix. But no one has the attention to detail to take initiative and fix it. The owners are out of town and the selling agent just doesn’t consider it to be important. But it is important. Very important and could potentially costs $1,000′s off a buyer offer price. This is why attention to detail is so important.

Brown M & M’s

Van Halen were famous for sending out a detailed and crazy rider to venues before playing a gig. The most diva looking provision being no brown m&m’s. The reson though was not about quirkiness but all about attention to detail.

From Eddie Van Halen’s Biography.

Van Halen was the first band to take huge productions into tertiary, third-level markets. We’d pull up with nine eighteen-wheeler trucks, full of gear, where the standard was three trucks, max. And there were many, many technical errors, whether it was the girders couldn’t support the weight, or the flooring would sink in, or the doors weren’t big enough to move the gear through. The contract rider read like a version of the Chinese Yellow Pages because there was so much equipment, and so many human beings to make it function.

So just as a little test, in the technical aspect of the rider, it would say ‘Article 148: There will be fifteen amperage voltage sockets at twenty-foot spaces, evenly, providing nineteen amperes…’ This kind of thing. And article number 126, in the middle of nowhere, was: ‘There will be no brown M&M’s in the backstage area, upon pain of forfeiture of the show, with full compensation.’

So I would walk backstage, if I saw brown M&M’s in that bowl…..well, line-check the entire production. Guaranteed you’re going to arrive at a technical error. They didn’t read the contract. Guaranteed you’d run into a problem. Sometimes it would threaten to just destroy the whole show. Something like, literally, life-threatening.

Make Small Fixes

In real estate are those small fixes that if unattended to could raise red flags with buyers. Red flags that beeping smoke alarms is indicative of neglect in other areas of maintenance. Areas that cost more than $3 to rectify.

Bottom line. To get the most money from your home sale there must be extreme attention to detail.

Pending foreclosures are on a very steady decline.

Foreclosures Steadily Decreasing | Source: Armls STAT

Some foreclosures in a metro area as big as ours is normal and to be expected. When the amount is proportionate the effect on supply, demand and prices is very limited. In 2009 the impact was massive because the number of distressed sales was so disproportionate.

Prices have risen. Far less people are in a negative equity position and the low inventory means almost any house can be sold in a short period of time.

Time to forget about foreclosures for a while as a strong market indicator.

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Please use our testimonial, and always continue to treat people the way we were treated.

“Marta gathered listing info for my wife and I in 2011 when we were starting to look at property in Phoenix. She remained to send follow up info for us during the next 18 months, even though we never went ahead with a purchase.

In April of 2013 we decided to purchase property, Marta arranged showings for us and even met us at the airport, took us to the showings and we made an offer.

Through the whole purchase procedure, Marta and her sales team were very professional, helped us out with every detail. They worked very hard to make sure we found the right property and at the best price possible.

Marta’s whole team was with us right until we received the keys for our new home.

Thanks Marta for helping us with the purchase of our Phoenix property,”

Dallas & Deb

Ponoka, Alberta, Canada

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Thank you so much for writing these kind words. I’m just glad everything worked out for you

The Arizona mortgage interest rate on June 5, 2013, is up 64 basis points from last week’s average Arizona rate of 3.36%.

Ok that’s something we haven’t seen in the market for a while. The thought that mortgage rates are going to start going back up. But it looks like something the market will need to get used to rising rates.

Mortgage Rates popped up. Source: www.zillow.com

That’s a big rise. In a week. And it took experts somewhat by surprise.

Here’s how the www.bankrate.com experts faired.

Experts Caught By Surprise

It seems the majority were caught by surprise.

Here’s the prediction for this week.

Which Way Will Rates Go?

Fairly unanimous agreement that no one knows what direction rates are moving. But I think if you take the period from one week to five years there would be almost 100% agreement that rates are going to head up.

Will This Hurt The Housing Market?

Or as the Washington Post asks “Will higher mortgage rates kill the housing market?“

From the article.

At a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate of about 3.8 percent, the typical American homebuyer can afford a $279,000 house. That’s 45 percent more than the current price of houses. That suggests that affordability isn’t the thing holding Americans back from buying houses (instead, it may be such factors as tight credit standards, difficulty building up a down payment  or lack of confidence in future job prospects). It also implies that slight increases in the mortgage rate shouldn’t completely undermine the improvement in the housing market; the thing to watch is not rates per se, but what happens on those other factors that are drags on would-be homeowners.

Marta’s Thoughts

Real estate will always be as much controlled by local factors as national macro trends. Our market has been on a wild ride over the past 12 months. Here’s some of the factors we should consider in our market.

Short term

This bump in rates might be a bigger motivator for buyers than it is deterrent. The fear that rates will rise further out weighs the disappointment that they can’t find 30 years fixed at 3.6%. Inventory is still low in almost every part of the market so demand doesn’t need to be that strong to keep prices rising.

Rent vs. Own

People need to live somewhere. Buy or rent. All things being equal more people prefer to buy than rent for a whole mix of reasons if presented the two options at the same price. The risk would be if renting became ‘cheaper’ than buying.

Right now in Scottsdale, 85258 there are only 8 three bedroom homes over 2,000 square feet for rent at less than $3,000 a month. You can buy more house than you can rent for the equivalent monthly amount. As long as that remains true prices should stay stable.

 Refi Wave May Be Over

Demand for refinancing was hit hardest by the acceleration in rates, with applications slumping 15.0 percent. The refinance share of total mortgage activity fell to its lowest level since July 2011 at 68 percent of applications from 71 percent the week before.

The gauge of loan requests for home purchases – a leading indicator of home sales – held up relatively better, falling just 1.6 percent.

Source: Reuters

So demand among buyers for a new loan stayed strong dropping on 1.6%. But refi’s are almost done.

Many people in existing homes had taken the recent rise in house prices to refinance loans from a few years earlier. Now that is going to be less cost effective I feel it may make people consider a move instead. That may sound far fetched but the reasoning would be as follows, people who want to lower monthly expenses would have to downsize to achieve that. Increasing both the number of sellers and buyers and increasing market volume and speed.

 Conclusion

Don’t panic. But this is a significant change. The market may finally be moving out of the distress / recovery cycle and into a more ‘normal’ phase.

If I was planning to buy I would probably choose to lock my rate while we are still in the region of 4.0%. That means finding a place to buy sooner rather than later. Because the upside risk of rates dropping back down is far out weighed by the downside risk of rates continuing to climb.

If I was a seller I would view this as much less relavent news. The effects will be more medium to longer term in nature. Personally I don’t see it creating downward price pressure this year, especially if inventory remains low.

The views from almost every hole are stunning. You have the head of Camelback to the south and Mummy mountain to the north. The fairways are lined with blossoming Oleander. The fairways are lush, green and cooling. In general it’s just a cool place to be.

Mountain Shadows Golf

Insane Camelback Views

Redevelopment

The plans for the redevelopment of the resort itself look impressive. There has been quite  journey between the developers, planning, the mayor etc. You can read the full published documentation history on the towns website.

It sounds like the process is nearing an end. With all the rezoning and planning elements coming together. It will be create to see an active resort and hotel there again. The rendering below sure looks cool.

Mountain Shadows Redevelopment

In the lobby of the Camelback Inn there are photo’s from the 30′s, 40′s and 50′s of how the place looked and the famous visitors. I had never seen pictures of Mountain Shadows in it’s heyday before though. In the developers proposal I discovered this one, looks like it was a great and happening place back in the day.

Mountain Shadows Then & Now

Mountain Shadows, Paradise Valley Homes For Sale

Surely the value of the single family homes in Mountain Shadows have been affected by the closure of the resort and the planning issues that have come from it’s proposed redevelopment. Once the resort is back to it’s best there could be a nice rise in value for these homes. Maybe there’s some good buys right now.

Showing properties 1 - 4 of 4. See more AZ Homes For Sale | Mountain Shadows West tract.
(all data current as of 6/14/2013)

1. $849,500 : 5525 E Lincoln Drive, Unit 84, Paradise Valley
   
   4 beds, 3.50 baths

   Home size: 3,250 sq ft

   Lot size: 14,175 sqft

   Year built: 1963

   Parking spots: 2

   Days on market: 144
   
2. $1,045,000 : 5525 E Lincoln Drive, Unit 97, Paradise Valley
   
   4 beds, 4.00 baths

   Home size: 4,036 sq ft

   Lot size: 13,136 sqft

   Year built: 1964

   Parking spots: 2

   Days on market: 138
   
3. $1,150,000 : 5525 E Lincoln Drive, Unit 107, Paradise Valley
   
   4 beds, 4.50 baths

   Home size: 4,134 sq ft

   Lot size: 12,483 sqft

   Year built: 1962

   Parking spots: 3

   Days on market: 190
   
4. $1,295,000 : 5525 E Lincoln Drive, Unit 106, Paradise Valley
   
   4 beds, 3.50 baths

   Home size: 3,184 sq ft

   Lot size: 12,891 sqft

   Year built: 2013

   Parking spots: 2

   Days on market: 21
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

I very much enjoyed working with Marta and really appreciated her professionalism, knowledge and attention to detail. She provided great market insights and produced excellent marketing materials. She handled both my residential purchase and the sale of my existing property which she sold in just five days so that I was able to purchase and close within the same week. She definitely managed the process and kept it all on track!

Karen T, Gainey Ranch

Thank you Karen

Is Now A Good Time To Be Off The Market?

I’d say the jury is out. July and August do historically see a dip in closings. But absorption rate in PV is rising and that’s not normally a good thing for sellers. If the balance of supply and demand as measured by absorption rate keeps rising there will be downward price pressure and listing today at an attractive price may be more prudent than waiting until September. However, the 48 homes under contract should they close will boost the demand side of the equation.

If I wanted to sell in 2013  I would list now. If I was willing and able to wait for a close of escrow in 2014 I would probably wait till September.

Current Inventory
*Single Family Homes Listed Over $1 Million Only

Active For Sale: 267
Under Contract: 48

Closed Sales

*Single Family Homes Sales in Paradise Valley List Price Over $1 Million. Statistics from ARMLS.

Supply

Sales of million dollar homes in PV has improved throughout the last 6 months. Days on the market has been in and around the 180 mark which is a vast improvement over recent years. The better prices have drawn out more sellers, so the lack of inventory seen in other parts of the valley is not in play as much in PV.

Keep an eye on the absorption rate. It has climbed steadily for PV since August 2012. That means the number of buyers is lower than people wanting to sell. While we have seen prices rising broadly across the market supply and demand suggest that may not continue for PV in the medium term.

Paradise Valley Market Activity Graphs

Look at this graph showing million dollar sales and listings for the north Scottsdale of 85255 and 85262.

Scottsdale Broker Market Share

Russ Lyon Sotheby’s International Realty has 42% market share over $1 million. That’s impressive. And it’s for good reason, we do have the best agents.

As soon as you list a home with the Marta Walsh Group you get instant access to the agents that are making 40% of all deals. That means that you will quickly get your house in front many, many active buyers.

La Grande Orange Grocery, Arcadia Phoenix Arizona

Arcadia Real Estate

La Grande Orange Grocery, Arcadia Phoenix Arizona

Fresh bread and baked good at La Grande Orange Grocery, Arcadia Phoenix Arizona

Coffee at La Grand Orange, Arcadia Phoenix Arizona

Arcadia Homes For Sale

Showing properties 1 - 10 of 79. See more AZ Homes For Sale | 85018 zip code.
(all data current as of 6/14/2013)

1. $1,599,900 : 5507 E Calle Del Paisano --, Phoenix
   
   5 beds, 6.50 baths

   Home size: 4,959 sq ft

   Lot size: 13,911 sqft

   Year built: 2013

   Parking spots: 5

   Days on market: 0
   
2. $979,000 : 4437 E Flower Street, Phoenix
   
   4 beds, 3.00 baths

   Home size: 3,657 sq ft

   Lot size: 25,502 sqft

   Year built: 2006

   Parking spots: 3

   Days on market: 1
   
3. $949,000 : 5132 N 35th Place, Phoenix
   
   4 beds, 4.50 baths

   Home size: 3,024 sq ft

   Lot size: 10,954 sqft

   Year built: 1975

   Parking spots: 4

   Days on market: 2
   
4. $844,000 : 5430 E Calle Redonda --, Phoenix
   
   4 beds, 3.00 baths

   Home size: 3,148 sq ft

   Lot size: 12,402 sqft

   Year built: 1962

   Parking spots: 4

   Days on market: 4
   
5. $1,099,000 : 3344 N 60th Street, Phoenix
   
   4 beds, 5.00 baths

   Home size: 4,036 sq ft

   Lot size: 11,770 sqft

   Year built: 1977

   Parking spots: 6

   Days on market: 7
   
6. $899,000 : 4437 N 47th Street, Phoenix
   
   4 beds, 3.00 baths

   Home size: 2,750 sq ft

   Lot size: 10,820 sqft

   Year built: 1960

   Parking spots: 2

   Days on market: 7
   
7. $1,395,000 : 4068 N 58th Street, Phoenix
   
   5 beds, 4.50 baths

   Home size: 4,181 sq ft

   Lot size: 24,202 sqft

   Year built: 2003

   Parking spots: 3

   Days on market: 8
   
8. $999,000 : 4911 N 45th Street, Phoenix
   
   5 beds, 4.00 baths

   Home size: 3,434 sq ft

   Lot size: 30,658 sqft

   Year built: 1953

   Parking spots: 3

   Days on market: 8
   
9. $899,900 : 3911 E Montecito Avenue, Phoenix
   
   4 beds, 4.50 baths

   Home size: 4,064 sq ft

   Lot size: 21,763 sqft

   Year built: 1958

   Parking spots: 5

   Days on market: 9
   
10. $1,299,000 : 5748 E Orange Blossom Lane, Phoenix
    
    3 beds, 3.00 baths

    Home size: 2,957 sq ft

    Lot size: 15,917 sqft

    Year built: 1988

    Parking spots: 4

    Days on market: 10
    

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Here’s why this most likely isn’t a bubble.

In the last 6 months there were 1,741 all cash deals in Scottsdale. In 2006 there were only 1,004 all cash deals all year. There is no easy money still.

Median sales price for Scottsdale in April 2013 was $365,000. A rise of 14.2% compared to April 2012. That is a big jump this year but median sales price was $357,950 in October 2004. Price levels today are still similar to 9 years ago.

Here’s the statistic we are studying most closely. Absorption Rate. This measures the balance of supply and demand, calculates how many months of supply exist at current demand levels. From October 2005 to October 2006 the absorption rate went from 3.42 to 8.6 that’s a 151% rise! From April 2012 to April 2013 the absorption rate increased from 3.8 to 3.96 only a 4.2% rise. If absorption rate stays below 6 there is no real chance of prices falling.

That’s the statistics but now to fundamentals and the number one reason we are most likely not in a house price bubble market currently. ”The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that by 2030 the population of Phoenix will grow to 2.2 million and that the population of the metro area will reach 6.3 million.”