Marvin Wiebener's Blog

Iran and Your Pocketbook

admin — Fri, 25 Mar 2011 06:41:52 +0000

An Associated Press (AP) article caught my eye recently. Readers know, if they’ve visited my blog, that Iran and its nuclear aspirations is of significant interest to me and with the present political upheaval that is in play in many Middle-Eastern Muslim nations a nuclear armed country with ‘edgy’ leadership concerns me. The article at http://t.uani.com/hpv5IZ reports that NATO forces seized powerful Iranian-made rockets being smuggled into Afghanistan for the Taliban’s upcoming spring campaign. The prospect of those rockets being unleashed on Coalition forces is a dreadful thought and the willful—not so clandestine—effort on the part of Ahmadinejad is just another piece of evidence underscoring the edgy leadership must be neutralized.

Remember the Cold War standoff between the USSR and US, the threat was always there that collectively both countries could literally incinerate each other. That same ominous prospect also kept us—and them—safe. Mutually assured destruction (MAD) in and of itself was a great deterrent but today it offers very little in the way of restraint when one considers the fact that Muslim extremists are manipulating the minds of their youth with martyrdom nonsense, feeding the young and vulnerable myths of what to expect from Allah after they’ve given their mortal lives with a bomb strapped to them.

Trying to understand and simultaneously untangle the current political set of circumstances in Iran is a futile effort. There seems to be no head on this snake, so to speak, no one entity or person that stands out as a leader we and the mentally stable citizens of that country can put their trust in. Another analogy might be that there are too many heads on this snake. There is the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader and his group. Then there is Ahmadinejad, the President and his followers. You can’t overlook Mojtaba Samareh Hashemi, Ahmadinejad’s right-hand man who has implicit power within Iran’s secular government and Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi, spiritual advisor to Ahmadinejad, described as fanatical and extremely hostile to the West. Yazdi advocates suicide bombing attacks against Israel and is a vocal supporter of Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons. The Islamist group Hamas, Iran’s proxy militants governing the Gaza Strip, set off a bomb at a bus stop in Jerusalem killing one and injuring thirty yesterday a fulfillment of but one of Yazdi’s extremist’s wishes.

All of this; NATO’s capture of 50 powerful rockets, Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons, the recent bus stop bombing in Jerusalem and much, much more only highlights a growing threat that emphasizes the fragile relationship between the West and Iran. We all know, whether we consciously acknowledge it or not, the US has entered the ring in a no-holds-barred fist fight to the finish. As many political, military and economic strategists have warned—it is time to tighten our belts and prepare for true austerity. The money to support this fight has got to come from somewhere and that somewhere is our pockets. I am not opposed, many are, but the alternative to not winning this fight, I am afraid, is a scenario I prefer not to consider, one much worse than we can imagine.

Mubarak: The Consequences of His Demise

admin — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 18:45:49 +0000

Be careful what you wish for, is an oft quoted warning that implies there is no way to know for certain the outcome of the change one is hoping for. In the case of President Hosni Mubarak, what kind of regime will replace his pro-west secular government? America hopes a more democratic one and the Arabs a more Islamic government. And if it becomes more Islamic who will be in charge, clergy as in Iran or terrorists as in Hamas or Hezbollah (proxies of Iran). Will the new government tend to become, in its wielding of power and authority, Islamo-facist and impose strict religious doctrine as is the case in Lebanon? Will there be genocide, torture and imprisonment for dissenters, restriction of human rights especially for Arab women? All we have to do is look at what is happening elsewhere in the Muslim world to know the answer and it isn't a good one.
The Arab world is watching the events play out in Egypt in hopes that the movement toward a stronger Islamic world will evolve. Is this what we of the free world want? I think not but what influence do the US President and Secretary of State have over what the outcome is likely to be? And if we do try to exercise our authority, whatever that means, what will be the outcome of that, I suspect the result will be more hatred of America and its allies. It has been my contention all along that the US President is weak when it comes to dealing with the Arab world and they see that weakness as their opportunity for Islamic evangelism. In other words become Muslim or die.
The two troubling consequences of uprisings sponsored by groups like the Muslim Brotherhood for we Americans is this: Terrorism in the form of suicide bombings will increase here in the US and Iran will eventually roll out their nuclear weaponized missile and aim it directly at Israel. The point I am trying to make here is that I see no absolute right answer; Mubarak is loosing ground and to continue our support of his government destines the US to certain diplomatic failure not only there but throughout the Muslim world. On the other hand to support a renegade bunch of Islamic protesters will eventually come back to haunt America.
Be careful what you wish for.

PROTRACTION, DISTRACTION AND EVENTUAL U.S. DOMINATION

admin — Tue, 23 Nov 2010 06:28:30 +0000

I am at a loss when trying to understand diplomacy from an American’s point of view. It seems to me diplomacy should be conducted in a fashion similar to a competitive sport in that there are rules to be followed in carrying out the various strategies brought to the field of play (or conference table). The rules are set forth and agreed upon by each of the teams (countries) and there are referees (the UN) present to assure everyone plays by those rules. With globalization in full swing one would think this form of civilization management would be welcomed with open arms. However, this isn’t the case; in fact it is far from it. The US, one of the countries adapting to such a philosophy, finds itself between a rock and a hard place because of our adherence to such strict protocol. I am not suggesting we toss the protocol, not at all, but those in the field of diplomacy must understand the consequences of allowing countries such as Iran to stage-manage us and, for the most part, I think they do. However, I am not sure President Obama does and ultimately he is the go-to-man when it comes to such matters.

Continuing on using the competitive sport example this is how I see it. The two teams (A & B) show up on game day, they vow to follow the rules or face consequences (penalties) and the game begins. Half way through the first period team A—Iran for instance—decides to change the rules without proper notification of team B—the U.S. Soon team B notices a change in the rules that has benefited team A and calls a time out. Coaches, captains, referees meet to discuss the rule change and eventually, through civil negotiations, the rule change is agreed upon by both teams and the game begins again. In the meantime, while negotiations were being conducted, team A has gained a small edge and as team B makes the adjustments necessary in order to abide by the new rule change team A calls for another review by the referee charging that team B manipulated the new rule to their advantage—whether they did or didn’t is irrelevant. While the referee, captains and coaches discuss the allegation made by team A against team B team A gains another edge. After a series of these strategic moves team A has accumulated a rather powerful advantage against team B. Ironically team B is wholly aware of what is taking place but because of its desire to remain transparent and true to the original rules of the game it is rendered impotent and impotence breeds more impotence resulting, eventually, in team A’s dominance over team B. Following the rules of the game is a noble aspiration when others agree and follow too but at some point—when an apposing team doesn’t—the gloves must come off. That doesn’t mean throwing the rule book away, it simply represents a refusal on the part of team B to allow rule boundary expansion under any circumstance. Think President Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Only a few play by the rules and those that don’t have an ulterior motive for not following regulations specific to maintaining peace around the globe. Those motives, while ulterior, are obvious; world domination, imposition of a certain culture or religion or the eradication of a culture and/or religion. Right now the US is waiting to see how sanctions against Iran will work in persuading that leadership to finally agree to halt their quest for nuclear weapons. I’ll stick my neck out here and say, ‘sanctions will not work’, and it is reasonable to think Iran has a plan brewing to make the US and our allies think they are working while continuing on with the aforementioned quest. Some day within the next few years, maybe sooner than later if we leave the gloves on and continue to pull punches, we will awaken to the news that Iran has a workable missile and a nuclear warhead atop it and it is aimed at Israel. I am not saying they will fire the missile, but just having it on the launch pad is enough to change the Middle-East geopolitical dynamics forever.

Marvin Wiebener, author of this piece has also written a novel, The Moriah Ruse, that explains in a very entertaining manner one option to the above dilemma. You may view his publications at www.marvinwiebener.com. Wiebener also features a blog where this commentary can be found as well as many other articles concerning Iran.

Iran, Growing Stronger

admin — Tue, 12 Oct 2010 18:44:10 +0000

Intelligence gathering with respect to Iran and their nuclear intentions is the most important issue facing the US spy community today. There are many other issues of a similar nature that are on the agenda, but at this moment in history Iran and what that nation is up to ranks number one. Why? A number of reasons and at the top of that list is Iran’s history, culture and providence. Iran, formerly the Persian Empire was unchallenged hundreds of years ago as the seat of trade routes linking the Mediterranean with the East. Trade was not limited to silk, salt and pottery, the most significant import/export that passed between regions trading in tangible goods were the intangibles—culture, language, philosophy, religion, belief systems, even the rudiments of science. The Persians were under, or at least exposed to, the influence of other cultures that challenged their strict lifestyle. This required a tightening of leadership influence and in some cases extreme measures were taken to inoculate the people from the pressure of persuasion. As a result the Qur’an became the absolute word on behavior as well as faith. Of course, like many religions, various interpretations emerged and with that fanaticism. Today Iran’s Guardian Council views the influence of the West (mainly the US) the same as it did the harmful influence of other cultures long ago. Looking at Iran’s situation from their perspective is a challenge for those of us liberated from what we call oppressive government, but if we could see it the Councils way one might empathize, a smidgeon. It isn’t hard to see how religious leaders could view our nation as astray. A nation of egomaniacal, self-centered, immoral, perverted idol worshippers and that’s just the leadership. I’m smiling, sort of. I said all of the above just to make this point; Iran and its leadership don’t play by the same rules. They’ve been at the game much longer than the US and they are a sophisticated, shall I say, adversary. They know tricks we can’t even conceive of and right now the Guardian Council and their own ‘Dennis-the-menace’ Ahmadinejad have their collective fingers crossed as they lie to the world about their nuclear intentions. Everyone knows about their deceptive ways and they know everyone knows, but they keep on deceiving and the world keeps on dozing. That is precisely why the intelligence gathering community must do all in its power to obtain verifiable information for use when developing policy concerning US and Iranian matters.

The above article was posted to another of my blogs on July 8, 2009; the following is a follow-up fifteen months later.

The addendum added here is in reference to a statement I made in the above paragraph, specifically: “They [Iran] know tricks we can’t even conceive… Everyone knows about their deceptive ways and they know everyone knows, but they keep on deceiving…”

After reading the article published 10/11/2010 in the Agence France-Presse (AFP) about what Iran’s finance minister Shamseddin Hosseini said in his speech before the International Monetary Fund’s members I feel compelled to say, “I told you so.” However, that sounds a bit arrogant; being right about something so obvious isn’t brain surgery, anyone that reads a newspaper or blog on the subject could have made that observation and did.

The AFP article states, “Hosseini, striking a resolute tone amid international curbs on trade with Islamic Republic and sanctions against firms and individuals linked to the country’s controversial nuclear program. He acknowledged that the sanctions ‘caused some kind of problem for us.’ But he said, ‘When people solve problems, they get stronger and today Iran is stronger.’”

Hosseini skillfully played the Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche card, “What does not destroy me makes me stronger.” I doubt that Hosseini is correct in his description of his country’s status; however, his claim will take on a life of its own and be believed enough to worry those who have initiated sanctions against Iran at the behest of the US and this will pose problems for America. On the one hand our country, if you’ve forgotten, the most economically viable and most militarily capable in the world, is loosing its edge as a benevolent superpower. We are into the ninth year of a war in Afghanistan without the successes we’d hoped for, our economy is strong but ever so close to tanking, and we’ve lost the respect of some of America’s closest allies. All this while the Islamic Republic of Iran, indeed grows stronger.

Marvin Wiebener

www.marvinwiebener.com

My Thoughts on Spying

admin — Thu, 07 Oct 2010 16:52:37 +0000

Intelligence gathering is an absolute necessity. They are so should we, and if that’s the way government has chosen to assure the safety of the US then spying is essential and must be done more cleverly than anyone else. Does that mean collecting intelligence by whatever means is necessary? The answer, of course, is situational. If US citizens are in imminent threat of death, then yes, anything goes. I hear you…who decides if the threat is imminent or not? Wish there was an easy answer but, even if there were some would aggressively object calling on old rhetoric about how the US must hold itself to a higher standard. Holding to a higher standard is good no denying that, but there is a limit and every citizen knows there is a limit. It is a part of man’s innate barbaric nature. Some stand firmly against torturing for information yet petition for abortion rights.

One thing is certain about intelligence gathering regardless of your opinion of the above paragraph; we can not afford another Colin Powell moment. Not that Secretary Powell was wrong in what he told the UN. He and the Bush administration were right in so many ways about WMD but they were fooled, manipulated and made to look incompetent when Powell held photos of a mobile chemical lab up for viewing attesting to his certainty of its contents. Once it was determined the trucks were empty all credibility went the way of money at a carnival sideshow.

Delay Tactic Psychology

admin — Thu, 16 Sep 2010 18:06:11 +0000

I will begin this article by calling your attention to an AFP piece appearing today in United Against Nuclear Iran:

AFP: "Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told US television Wednesday that more sanctions will not hurt the Islamic republic, as Western nations urged tougher action over Tehran's nuclear program. 'Our nation does not need the United States whatsoever,' Ahmadinejad told NBC news in an interview that took place in Tehran and aired in the United States Wednesday evening. 'Even if the US administration increases the sanctions... 100 times more, and even (if) the Europeans join the United States to impose heavier sanctions, we in Iran are in a position to meet our own requirements.'" http://bit.ly/aeThCM

Iran’s president and its theocratic leadership—as I’ve mentioned in earlier articles—have mastered the art of patience. No Western influenced nation can out delay them; they’ve been at it too long. The above article illustrates more of the same tactic; delay, deceive, conceal and confuse. Government transparency doesn’t exist in Tehran and news outlets are controlled by the Islamic Republic Guard Corps (IRGC), so very little information of any use flows from those sources. It’s psychology 101—Ahmadinejad knows how to play the U.S. and our allies. A delay here, a concealment there, then a bit of deception and when confronted their leadership throws out accusations or, in some cases, surprise us by agreeing to some minor request in principle but as soon as the negotiators meet to hammer out the details Iran finds cause to renege. We know this but we continue to play by their rules. One day, and this won’t be a surprise to any of us, Iran will announce that it has equipped a missile with a nuclear warhead.

Marvin Wiebener

www.marvinwiebener.com

The Underbelly of Globalization

admin — Mon, 06 Sep 2010 16:10:27 +0000

Spying (surveillance, counterintelligence, counterespionage, covert action) is taking place everywhere by everyone—meaning governments, public and privately held corporations and private individuals—right under our noses. For the sake of brevity I’ll keep my thoughts focused on governments that spy on other governments.

Most of us think in terms dictated to us by the media in ten second snippets. We see action: riots, battles, religious skirmishes, assassinations, diplomats sparring and leaders threatening, all interpreted by various radio, TV and print outlets that we know is cloaked in bias—one way or the other. As news consumers this is what we are fed, on the other hand most of us believe it is only the tip of the iceberg, to use an overworked metaphor. Most of what goes on within governments, whether well established or fledgling, occurs at a level you and I are not privy to. For want of a better word I’ll call it the Underbelly because of the image that conjures up, not all good and certainly not all bad but ominous just the same.The Underbelly, a locality very few know about and would be horrified if they did—an echelon of human interaction unimaginable to most of us. We (USA) take pride in our humanitarianism, our honesty and integrity, we think of ourselves as above those “other” countries that severely restrict human rights and practice customs we believe to be barbaric, however, the truth about our own global ethical supremacy is only an illusion we hold to by the thinnest thread. To be safe, to exercise our individuality, our right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness; all this has been purchased by the blood of our veterans and the furtive maneuverings of our spy agencies. To achieve positive outcomes one must do negative things a core element of The Underbelly. This statement requires contemplation beyond its obvious meaning. Hopefully you will give it its due and allow the meaning to mature before moving on. To assist you in this meditation process I offer you a quote to consider that I found in my Webster’s Dictionary of Quotations: “Whoever battled with monsters had better see they do not become monsters themselves…” Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche. The problem is, as with most warnings of this nature, the boundary between righteousness and barbarism—fighting monsters and becoming one—is a blurry wisp fluttering from one side to the other without warning.

The Underbelly has many players; the authors of the Constitution and forty-four presidents just to name a few, of course, they have their ‘cover’ beginning with speech writers and aids to the CIA. I offer this not as an indictment but as simple reality. My recent novel illustrates in an informative and entertaining way what The Underbelly looks and sounds like. The Moriah Ruse presents one clandestine operation free of fantasy heroes and over-the-top technology. See it and read reviews at: www.marvinwiebener.com. This, of course, is an ad buried not so cunningly in my blog. However, The Moriah Ruse, I believe, is a well crafted novel that you will enjoy and how will it sell if I don’t tell you about it.

Welcome!

admin — Sun, 05 Sep 2010 18:04:22 +0000

Marvin Wiebener, administrator of this blog, has moved previous posts concerning Iran and nuclear weapons onto this blog which fits seamlessly with his new website. Reader access is enhanced and subscriptions are now available. Wiebener's goal remains the same; intelligent dialogue about Iran's nuclear ambitions and what implications that has for the World.
Wiebener, an author, has published a mystery novel, THE MARGIN, and, according to some, the best spy novel, THE MORIAH RUSE, they have ever read.

Please take a moment to visit Wiebener's website and blog. He welcomes diverse opinions as well as agreement, and he answers all who write him.

War and Animal Instinct

admin — Wed, 11 Aug 2010 17:24:10 +0000

Peace and tranquility, health and happiness, fame and fortune are what most of us aspire to and work for, the Constitution of the United States even spells out what the founders considered a vital element in the establishment of the government so many have given their lives defending; …life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

Of course this is all well and good, to “…form a more perfect union…” is a most honorable and human thing to do but, as we can see, it is hard to attain for a couple of reasons. Most influential of those reasons is simply the fact that we human beings are still animals—although calculating, analytical animals—I admit but nevertheless animals with animal instincts. Among those instincts is the compelling drive to survive, so much so that we have an abundance of rules, laws, traditions, religions and customs that for the most part keep us in check while we exercise our right to survive in a civilized way, but barely. Animal survival depends on two things; procreation and establishing who the alpha-dog is. Throughout the last few thousand years the human animal has recognized the need to do this amicably. The example I have in mind is Iran and that countries nuclear ambitions. Ahmadinejad wants desperately to be the alpha-dog and so did President Bush when he was in office. That dogfight between Bush and Ahmadinejad ended in favor of Bush. Iran’s leader knew the US was in control and didn’t advance his cause quite as aggressively but now President Obama enters the fracas determined to communicate equality by lying down and rolling over exposing his vulnerable underside. The predictable outcome from this kind of social work diplomacy is certain to be perceived as weakness on the part of the US and reason for Ahmadinejad to act more brazenly. Did you read the Associated Press article today about Iran digging mass graves in which to bury US troops or that Iran has activated equipment to enrich uranium more efficiently, a move that defied the UN Security Council? Ahmadinejad is showing his teeth, growling and circling the alpha dog waiting for just the right moment to attack. Does this mean that I am thinking war, no it doesn’t. Iran has the upper hand now and will not push to engage the US and our allies in conventional military action, however, they will continue to use the strategy that has guaranteed them the most success; saber-rattling, deception and patience. Right now, as things stand diplomatically and militarily, our hands are tied—we know that, they know that, our enemies know that and so do our allies.

Marvin Wiebener

http://marvinwiebener.tatepublishing.net

The Butterfly Effect

admin — Wed, 04 Aug 2010 17:11:31 +0000

Firefights, skirmishes and even wars begin for the smallest, strangest and the most insane reasons, take for instance the recent border conflict between Israeli and Lebanese troops resulting in the death of two Lebanese soldiers, a Lebanese journalist and a senior Israeli officer. The deadly confrontation is an illustration of how the weather phenomena, the Butterfly Effect, can be applied to just about everything. MIT professor and meteorologist Edward Lorenz proposed that weather conditions were so fragile that the flapping of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil could ultimately create just the right conditions to set off a tornado in Texas. The origin of this deadly border fight, according to UNIFIL (UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon), was simply because the Israelis were trimming trees on their side of the border. How conflicts begin under such harmless circumstances is a question for anthropologists. I am sure the basis for that kind of thinking lies deep within our sense of the perceived need to protect us from them.

Marvin Wiebener

http://marvinwiebener.tatepublishing.net