Matty's Value Bets

NFL Playoffs (Championship Weekend)

2010-01-24T18:32:00.002+11:00

NY Jets; +7.5 & game total under 39.5 - 3.55

New Orleans; -3.5 & game total over 52.5 - 3.60

Second last week of the NFL, and the last games before the Superbowl.

New York's D has been crazy throughout the playoffs, and the Colts O stuttered last week even though they won comfortably. Both sides defense has been good all year, and the Jets run game will let them control the clock, keeping the game close. I think Indy will win in a low scoring close game, but the 7.5 point head start is too good to ignore.

Going for New Orleans simply because it's at their home stadium, and the noise will be intense, throwing off the Vikings offense play calling and allowing the NO defense to get to Favre. Both sides have great running games, which should keep the scoreboard ticking over. The only way this game doesn't go over the points is if the Vikings choke and play terribly.

Break those tips up if you wish, I am just looking for value with the in game multis.

NFL Playoffs (Week 2)

2010-01-16T23:53:00.002+11:00

New Orleans; -7.0

Indianapolis; -6.5

Dallas/Minnesota; Over 45.5

New York/Chargers; Under 42.0

GREAT DAY, 3 OUT OF 4, WITH ONLY THE TERRIBLE COWBOYS LETTING ME DOWN. How can 1 team score 34 and other other 3 in a Playoff game, damn Cowgirls.

2nd week of the NFL playoffs, with 4 pretty tough games, especially in regards to betting lines and totals.

New Orleans are fresh and ready to fire, and will score heavily, while their opponents the Cards, despite winning last week, will miss Boldin as a second receiving option against the better NO defense.

Indy "tanked" their last 2 games, blowing a perfect season in favour of refreshed players, and I for one think this will work, this week at least, against the worst team left IMO, Baltimore.

Dallas and Minnesota is a tough one, but I believe there will be plenty of scoring, so the over seems good to me.

In the final game, the Jets have the best D in the NFL, and that's the highest points total offered on them in ages, so I'll take it and hope their D performs.

Tough week, hopefully a profit is incoming.

Australian Open (Tennis)

2010-01-14T21:50:00.001+11:00

Rafael Nadal / Kim Clijsters - 21.00

First bet for the Australian Open, with a winners double between 2 of the favourites, which at 21.00 has been reducing in price rapidly with injuries to other players from both draws. Nadal won last year, and if fully fit, is the best player in the world, while Clijsters is fit and firing.

Sydney International (Tennis)

2010-01-14T10:24:00.001+11:00

Leyton Hewitt; -3.0 games - 2.00

Hewiit faces Baghdatis, who is pretty ordinary form, and while I predict Hewitt to win in straight sets, the line seems like the more secure bet, and is comparable in its return to a straight sets bet anyway. As long as Hewitt's back/hip doesn't worry him, he will win easy.

Wow, Hewitt was terrible after taking the first set, eventually losing in 3 sets.

Sony Open (US PGA Tour)

2010-01-13T22:37:00.000+11:00

Zach Johnson - 17.00 WIN

David Toms - 31.00 E/WAY

Rory Sabbatini - 23.00 WIN

Week 2 sees the Tour still in Hawaii, for the Sony Open.
*Johnson is the defending champ, and that worked out well last week, and at 17.00 seems value.
*Toms has won here before, and although failing to win last year, was around the mark consistently.
*Sabbatini is my pick from the players last week, and has 2 runners up here, if you can afford the extra, take him each way too.

Sydney International (Tennis)

2010-01-12T11:23:00.001+11:00

Mardy Fish; 2-0 sets, 2.75

Bet of the day for all Tennis matches, with Mardy Fish playing the on again off again Aussie Carsten Ball, who really struggles against any top player. Fish was top 20 in the world before an injury mid last year dropped him to outside the top 50.

6-4, 7-6 win to Fish.

NFL Divisional Weekend.

2010-01-11T22:52:00.000+11:00

Indianapolis Colts; -6.5 - 1.91

The one bet that stands out early on. I didn't rate the Ravens going into this week, and I still don't, although they will score, so the overs may well be a good bet too. The Colts should take care of them next week, it's the Chargers the Colts have to worry about.

Proift/Loss Statement.

2010-01-11T16:33:00.000+11:00

After running this blog for a few weeks, I thought I'd give my second Profit/Loss statement regarding all the bets I have placed on this site.

At the time of the last statement (15th December) the site was running at a 4.50 units loss.

After calculating the bets placed and their subsequent losses or winnings, the current statement says;

Winnings - 19.31

Losses (bets placed) - 21.50 (includes 4.50 carry over)

2.19 LOSS.

After a shaky start, I am starting to recover, and with all the bets placed, a slight loss isn't too bad at this stage.

Over the coming weeks there will be bets on Tennis (Oz Open), NFL (Playoffs), Golf (weekly US PGA) and the odd Soccer and Cricket bet.

Continued luck to all, and my "skills" will really kick in once the AFL season starts.

NFL Wild Card Weekend.

2010-01-09T23:57:00.000+11:00

Green Bay Packers - 2.00

Philadelphia Eagles + 3.5 - 1.91

New York Jets - 2.40

New England vs Baltimore OVER 42.5 - 1.91

Seeing as it's playoff time, I thought I'd give a tip for each NFL Wild Card game.

The Packers are my "tip of the week", as I see them as having all 3 areas of strength over the Cards, Defense, Rushing and Throwing.

I'm not confident at all about the Eagles after last weeks "blowout", but I believe coach Andy Reid might have been foxing a bit, not really caring who he played this week. The Cowboys have a habit of choking in big games, as this should be close.

The Bengals/Jets game is hard to judge, both teams are clearly the worst 2 that have made the playoffs, and the Bengals have struggled since the death of Chris Henry. At home, the Bengals will be hard to beat, but the Jets have the best D in the NFL, which is always dangerous in January.

New England are almost certainties in my mind, but the odds are too short unless you want to bet big, so the overs seem a good bet. Despite losing NFL leading receiver Wes Welker last week for probably 12 months, the Patriots will still score at home, while the Ravens have been surprisingly high scorers in recent weeks, and their D has let big scores in too. 42.5 seems unders to me, so I'll take the overs.

P.S: A little warning, the playoffs are tricky at the best of times, so think long and hard about how much you can "afford to lose" before placing a bet this week.

Interesting Fact: The last 4 Superbowls have featured teams (4 in total) who have played in the Wild Card Weekend, with 3 actually winning it all.

SBS PGA Championship (Golf)

2010-01-07T10:55:00.001+11:00

Geoff Ogilvy - 9.00

Nick Watney - 17.00

First event on the US PGA tour for 2010, with only 28 players competing due to the entry to this tournament only being available to last years winners on the tour. Without most of the big names, Ogilvy has a great chance to go back to back, having won by 6 last year. Although no USA player has won at Kapalua in 10 years, Watney was 2nd on par 5's last year overall, and with more par 5's on this course then normal, his odds seemed very good.

Dangers are Steve Stricker, Retief Goosen and Angel Cabrera.

A big thank you to Geoff Ogilvy for starting 2009 so well, for all of us.

Central Coast/Wellington (A-Leauge)

2009-12-31T11:41:00.000+11:00

Central Coast/Wellington - DRAW - 3.25

These 2 sides are the draw specialists, with Wellington only winning one game away from home this year, but having plenty of draws on the road. Central Coast are desperate for 3 points, but the NZers are a good team, and should respond to anything thrown at them.

New South Wales (Cricket)

2009-12-30T16:48:00.000+11:00

New South Wales - WIN - 1.90

Can't believe this game is even money at the moment. NSW are literally the world's best 20/20 team, and although a few of their stars aren't playing that played in the 20/20 champions league, they are still a force to be reckoned with.

I usually don't like backing teams below 2.00, but these odds seem too good.

NFL Bets of the Week.

2009-12-27T20:22:00.002+11:00

Multi 1.

1. Miami; -1.5 points - 1.91

2. New York Giants/Carolina - Total points over 42.5 - 1.91

3.65.

Multi 2.

1. Philadelphia; -7.0

2. Giants/Panthers - over 42.5

3. San Fransisco/Detroit - over 41.0

4. Dallas; -7.0

5. Chicago; +7.0

26.50

The first multi is my 2 best remaining bets of the week together, with Miami a good chance to blow Houston away, and both the Giants and Panthers have put up big points lately.

The Second Multi is my Australian TV multi, consisting of the 5 covered games by Foxtel and ONE HD. I love the way Phillie are playing, and can see them blowing away Denver, San Fran and Detroit should be high scoring, as both sides "air it out", while Dallas should easily account for the woeful Skins. The last game is a bit of a "feeling" bet, as Favre has a bad record away from home in cold weather, while the Bears have their season on the line.

If you are looking for the "value bet" of the week, or at least the remaining games, I'll be taking a small bite at Chicago for a straight win at the very juicy odds of 3.70.

A-Leauge Multi (Soccer)

2009-12-26T16:40:00.000+11:00

1. Gold Coast - WIN

2. Perth - WIN

3. Sydney - WIN

4. Melbourne - WIN

5. Central Coast vs Wellington - DRAW

51.00, x 1 unit.

The weekly attempt to crack an A-League multi sees 4 wins and a draw between the draw specialists. At 51.00, a nice return if it gets up, and as I've said before, only need one of these this year/season and it will place the account in front.

Orlando Magic (NBA)

2009-12-25T20:19:00.000+11:00

Orlando Magic - WIN - 1-10 points - 2.70

Great early matchup tomorrow morning our time, between the Magic and the Celtics in Orlando. Paul Pierce is out for the Celtics, but it will still be close. Orlando to win a close one, as Boston's D is still very good.

San Diego Chargers (NFL).

2009-12-23T20:51:00.000+11:00

San Diego Chargers - WIN - 2.35

These odds seem too good to be true. The Chargers travel to Tennessee to play the in form Titans, but the Chargers are on fire, having won their last 9 games. It will be a high scoring game, and I just don't know whether the Titans can match the Chargers for scoring ability. Christmas day match in the States, so Boxing Day on TV in Australia.

NFL TV Multi.

2009-12-20T19:56:00.000+11:00

1. Green Bay - WIN

2. New York Jets; - 7.0

3. San Diego; - 7.0

4. Minnesota; - 8.5

5. New York Giants - WIN

24.50 per unit.

My NFL TV multi for this week wasn't easy, with 3 of the games having the favourites too short for a straight out win bet, so I took the points. Can see one of those 3 points game's becoming a "push", but that's fine, as long as the multi still gets up.

NFL Bets of the Week.

2009-12-20T18:30:00.000+11:00

Green Bay Packers - WIN - 2.15

Seattle Seahawks; -6.5 - 1.91

Love the Packers this week, against the struggling Steelers, who just don't seem to be able to stop any team that throws more then they run.

The Seahawks line is just stupid, at home against the terrible Tampa Bay, the line should be 10+.

Will place my TV Multi up later, which will consist of all the 5 games on Australian TV this Monday and Tuesday.

Melbourne Victory (Soccer - A-League)

2009-12-19T14:33:00.002+11:00

Melbourne Victory - WIN - 2.10

I know there are injury concerns over Hernandez and Ward, but Colosimo missing for Sydney means their defense is going to be fairly weak. Melbourne are in great form too, a 3-0 win over CC last week, and Sydney struggled to dispose of Wellington, although some might say that was a great win. Melbourne to win easily for me, thus the 2.10 is good value.

A-Leauge Multis (Soccer)

2009-12-18T16:12:00.001+11:00

Multi 1.

1. Adelaide WIN

2. Brisbane WIN (Draw no bet)

3. Melbourne - WIN

4. Newcastle - WIN

5. Gold Coast - WIN

39.00 per unit.

Multi 2.

1. Adelaide WIN (Draw no bet)

2. Draw - Brisbane vs C.Coast

3. Draw - Melbourne vs Syd.

4. Newcastle - WIN

5. Gold Coast - WIN

64.00 per unit.

Tough to land these A-League Multis, but 1 will pay off the whole season, so I'm having a crack at 2 this week.
The last 2 games seem like good bets for the win, so it's just a matter of getting past Saturday night.
Adelaide found some form last week, and so did Brisbane, so I'm going to risk them straight out and with a draw no bet win in the 2 multis. The Melbourne/Sydney blockbuster is a tough one, Melbourne have hit form again, but Hernandez might not play, bringing Sydney back into it.
Would love to get to the Sunday games alive in one multi, would feel fairly confident then.

Indianapolis Colts (NFL)

2009-12-18T11:52:00.001+11:00

Indianapolis Colts; -2.5 and game total under 42.5 - 3.30

Going for the Colts to cover the points, in a low scoring game in wet and windy conditions in Jacksonville. Their have been rumours the Colts may rest some starters late in the game, but with heavy rain and strong wind predicted, they may well run up the score first, and their D will hold on late, like it did against the Broncos last week.

Not a lot of value in any markets today, so the line/total double seemed the best value.

Wow, rain didn't come, wind was low, and the score went over early in the 3rd, Colts won, but couldn't get over 2.00 on the points, so that didn't seem value.

Tottenham vs Manchester City (EPL)

2009-12-16T17:17:00.002+11:00

Tottenham vs Manchester City - DRAW - 3.30

The other 3 EPL games tomorrow morning seem clear cut, so this game seems to offer the best value. Machester City have had a habit of high scoring draws, including a run of 5 draws in a row recently.
Tottenham are the favourites here, but offer little value at about 2.00 in a game between two of the "next level" sides in the EPL.
Will also add the draw to a multi with win bets on the other 3 EPL games.

3-0 Tottenham. Man City just didn't turn up, even their manager was surprised by the large defeat.

New York Giants vs Washington Redskins (NFL)

2009-12-15T22:09:00.001+11:00

New York; - 3.0; ...2.05

Edit: You can now get NY at -2.5, although at the lesser price of 1.87, that bet is still very good value in my mind.

My early tip for next weeks NFL round is a very early one, it's for next Monday nights matchup.
The Giants need to win this game to likely tie the Cowboys for the last NFC wild card, and with only 3 games left, can not afford to let this one slip.
The Giants and Skins have both been "ok" recently, but the Skins seem to only get close to good teams, so the low points on offer are a bonus at this time.
My educated guess would be a 7-10 point NY win, so 3 points seems very light on.

PROFIT/LOSS STATEMENT

2009-12-15T19:12:00.000+11:00

Basically after each week, I will try and prepare a little report on the profits and/or losses of the bets I have placed up during the week.

My basic betting system is to place 1 unit on an outsider (3.00 or more) and 2 units on a head to head value bet (3.00 or less).

Following that line of betting, and after calculating up all the results, I achieved;

A loss of 4.50 units for the week, saved mainly by Nick O'Hern scraping into 5th spot in the oz PGA, and also good NFL wins by the Eagles and Chargers.

Over the coming weeks, I will be placing large value, high return, but low percentage multi's also that will hopefully raise the level of this site's returns.

Not a good first week, but not a "shocker" either.

Best of luck to all.

Australia vs West Indies (Cricket)

2009-12-15T18:39:00.000+11:00

Ricky Ponting - Man of the Match - 9.00

Dwayne Bravo - WI high bat, 1st innings - 8.50

A couple of nice value bets here, at very juicy odds, just to make the 3rd and final test more interesting. Ponting has been in good form without breaking out, and is set for a big score.
Bravo is a good value bet, with Chanderpaul and the young opener Barath in doubt and unlikely to play.