mcleodganj weathergeek

dynamic winter system... (pm.12.jan.20)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Sun, 12 Jan 2020 20:22:00 +0530

Visit the Weathergeek SoundCloud Page for audio weather updates.

milder, then stormy... (pm.11.jan.20)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Sat, 11 Jan 2020 20:25:00 +0530

Here is tonight's weather update, via podcast on SoundCloud.

awaiting the next onslaught... (pm.10.jan.20)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Fri, 10 Jan 2020 20:46:00 +0530

Here is the latest info on our current weather scenario.

welcome relief... (pm.09.jan.20)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Thu, 9 Jan 2020 20:20:00 +0530

Listen to the latest wxgeek podcast via soundcloud here.

coming to an end... (pm.08.jan.20)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Wed, 8 Jan 2020 20:25:00 +0530

Here is the synopsis of our recent winter storm system which is now winding down and moving out.

wet and slushy... (am.08.jan.20)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Wed, 8 Jan 2020 08:24:00 +0530

Check this morning's podcast via Soundcloud.

rain to snow... (pm.07.jan.20)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Tue, 7 Jan 2020 20:18:00 +0530

Here's the latest.

situation report... (am.07.jan.20)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Tue, 7 Jan 2020 08:06:00 +0530

Listen for details.

mid-winter threats... (pm.06.jan.20)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Mon, 6 Jan 2020 20:34:00 +0530

I've been experimenting with Soundcloud, which is an audio platform for music and podcasts. Click THIS LINK to check out the latest synopsis and discussion on the winter storm that is moving into our area.

system still on track... (am.06.jan.20)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Mon, 6 Jan 2020 08:59:00 +0530

click for the latest update

turning nasty... (pm.05.jan.20)

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Sun, 5 Jan 2020 21:03:00 +0530

listen to wxgeek podcast on soundcloud

increasing thundershower risk... (pm.19.mar.19)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Tue, 19 Mar 2019 20:36:00 +0530

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 51.3ºF (10.7ºC)
High temp: 64.1ºF (17.8ºC)
Precipitation: none

There was a greater percentage of sunshine today than expected (no complaints), and that allowed temperatures to end up a bit warmer than expected as well. I've now recorded four days in a row with temps above 60ºF (16ºC), and I think we'd all agree that it's been much more pleasant and comfortable.

A rather intense storm system is centered over south-central Turkmenistan this evening, and will be weakening as it pushes east-northeastward during the coming 48hrs or so. Models had been showing some thundershower development in our vicinity to be starting by now, but the latest data indicates that will be holding off until after midnight, at least. If and when we do get those thundershowers, temperatures will fall significantly, erasing the gains we've enjoyed the last few days. That risk of precipitation will be around tomorrow (Wed) and tomorrow night -- and possibly even into Thursday, which is Holi, and also the official first day of Spring.

But rebounding temps are in the forecast through the weekend into early next week..

another high for the year... (pm.18.mar.19)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Mon, 18 Mar 2019 20:28:00 +0530

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 50.2ºF (10.1ºC)
High temp: 64.2ºF (17.9ºC)
Precipitation: none

I registered another new high temp today for the season and the year... with assistance coming from totally sunny skies into the early afternoon, enhancing a milder air mass nosing in from the south. Shower development was confined to the higher elevations this afternoon, though we did take part in an increase in cloudiness.

We'll continue in this variety-mode tomorrow (Tue) -- with a mix of clouds and sun and a slight chance of a shower or thundershower late in the day. But there is another storm system on the way which will give us a better chance of rain showers and thunder on Tuesday night and Wednesday... with a chance of some random thundershowers lasting into Thursday as well. Thursday happens to be HOLI, and also the Spring Equinox.

It has been so nice to get a taste of some milder/more pleasant temperatures, and in spite of a set-back during the mid-week period... we should resume our warming trend by the weekend.

a march mix... (pm.17.mar.19)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Sun, 17 Mar 2019 20:30:00 +0530

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 48.4ºF (9.1ºC)
High temp: 61.0ºF (16.1ºC)
Precipitation: 0.02" (less than 1mm)

We've had all kinds of variety today... with a brief shower along with very gusty winds just before sunrise this morning... lots of cloudiness into the late morning... then a good amount of sunshine mid-day into the late afternoon... a period of light thundershowers this evening... and finally, a return to partly cloudy skies after dark. For the second day in a row I recorded a high temp above 60ºF (16ºC) -- and that's the first time that's happened this year.

There's nothing all that new to report, as we remain under the influence of a relatively unstable atmosphere... in spite of these milder temperatures. Look out for the risk of isolated/passing thundershowers tomorrow (Mon) and Tuesday as well, with a better chance of more persistent/consistent rain/thundershowers Tuesday night and Wednesday. Even the latter part of the week will feature unstable conditions with a decent chance of a passing thundershower or two... but it looks like our temps will be a bit milder into next weekend.

Forecast details are available on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

tops for 2019... (pm.16.mar.19)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Sat, 16 Mar 2019 20:24:00 +0530

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 46.9ºF (8.3ºC)
High temp: 62.1ºF (16.7ºC)
Precipitation: none

I recorded the mildest/warmest high temp of 2019 early this afternoon, in the midst of sunshine and patchy high cloudiness. There's still a bit of a chill in the air, but it was nice to see the thermometer climbing a bit.

Our overall pattern remains disturbed, however, and that means we're going to see some cloudy periods, along with occasional chances of some periods of showers and/or thundershowers during this upcoming week. There are no major storm systems threatening, but disturbances in the upper atmosphere rippling through, combined with at least a moderate amount of moisture availability will keep us a bit on our toes. It still looks like the best chance of showers exists in the window between late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK for details.

fighting forward... (pm.15.mar.19)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Fri, 15 Mar 2019 20:29:00 +0530

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 42.6ºF (5.9ºC)

High temp: 57.2ºF (14.0ºC)

Precipitation: 0.03" (less than 1mm)

Well... it was another one of those classic McLeod Ganj days that featured seductive sunshine until mid-day, and then the development of clouds and mountain thundershowers in the afternoon to spoil the mood. Even though we had that period of showers, very small hail, gusty winds and thunder off-and-on for a little more than an hour in the 3:00-4:00pm range, the actual rainfall amount was very small at my location here in the upper part of town. Then... rapid clearing occurred as the evening set in.

The temperature trend this month has been generally upward, even though we've had some significant set-backs in the midst of it. That scenario will continue as we progress through the coming week or so, with that almost ever-present risk of a random thundershower, and an even more significant chance of rain coming in between late Tuesday and late Wednesday. Holi is on Thursday, coinciding this year with the Spring Equinox -- and there is evidence that those events could mark a noticeable turn toward a more favorable springtime weather pattern. We shall see if that outlook holds.

Details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

disturbed pattern persists... (pm.13.mar.19)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Wed, 13 Mar 2019 20:30:00 +0530

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 41.9ºF (5.5ºC) -- at 7:05pm
High temp: 53.8ºF (12.1ºC) -- at 4:50am
Precipitation: 0.13" (3mm) -- updated thru midnight

It was quite mild early this morning, in advance of our latest incoming storm system. Mostly cloudy skies throughout the day led to a few sprinkles of rain around noon, and then some actual showers by mid-afternoon, which increased slightly in intensity during the evening hours. We've also had some very gusty winds at times. The day's low temperature occurred during a brief heavier rain shower shortly after 7pm.

The center of an upper-level low pressure circulation is located over extreme northern Afghanistan right now, channeling a moderate amount of moisture up against the western Himalayan ranges. We're still stuck in a pattern featuring wave after wave of these upper-level disturbances, with only a couple of days of relatively pleasant weather in between. This latest disturbance will keep scattered rain showers in the forecast overnight and tomorrow (Thu), though it's possible we could see more sunshine tomorrow than we saw today. Things look gradually better on Friday, and then relatively quiet and significantly milder on Saturday -- but the risk of showers will increase again on Sunday... and again by late Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Still waiting for that elusive breakthrough that will usher in a true change of seasons.

ups and downs... (pm.12.mar.19)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Tue, 12 Mar 2019 20:29:00 +0530

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 44.2ºF (6.8ºC)
High temp: 57.0ºF (13.9ºC)
Precipitation: none

It was really nice to have a genuinely sunny day... one of the few we've been able to experience in a long time. There was a bit of cumulus development along the Dhauladhars during the afternoon, but none of that got anywhere close to producing any precipitation.

Unfortunately, our atmosphere will be destabilizing again during the day tomorrow (Wed), with another chance of some shower development by late afternoon or evening, and a better chance of rain overnight into Thursday. The latest models indicate instability lingering all the way into Friday as well, so expect fluctuations between clouds and sun with the threat of random showers. The point is, we're still not breaking into an extended streak of dry weather, even if our overall temperature trend will be generally upward in the long-term.

fickle/changeable pattern... (pm.11.mar.19)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Mon, 11 Mar 2019 20:35:00 +0530

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 41.7ºF (5.4ºC) -- at 2:45pm
High temp: 51.6ºF (10.9ºC) -- at 10:20am
Precipitation: 0.29" (7mm)

It's been an upside/down kind of day (see stats above) -- I recorded the day's high temperature during the mid-morning, with the low temp occurring during a period of moderate rain showers during the mid-afternoon. Those rain showers got going pretty much according to expectations, but things have cleared out already this evening.

This recent storm system has really picked up the pace, and seems to be moving out much earlier than expected. There could still be some rain and/or thundershower development overnight and tomorrow (Tuesday), but the upper-level low pressure center is weakening rapidly and lifting northward, and should allow some stabilization to occur between now and late Wednesday. Yet another storm system moving in from the west will increase our rain chances again between Wednesday evening and early Friday... so we're going to be dealing with a lot of back-and-forth stuff in the coming days.

But in the long run, you can see on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK that our overall temperature trend will be upward during the coming week...

rain risk rising again... (pm.10.mar.19)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Sun, 10 Mar 2019 20:32:00 +0530

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 47.8ºF (8.8ºC)
High temp: 60.9ºF (16.1ºC)
Precipitation: none

We fell short, by less than one degree fahrenheit (and just a fraction of a degree celsius), of the warmest day of 2019... but it was not only the second-warmest day of the year, but also the second-warmest since about the middle of December. Abundant sunshine during the morning gave way to quite a lot of cloud development by around 1:30-2:00pm, which lingered through the rest of the afternoon into the evening. Skies have cleared out again with stars appearing after dark, however.

A well-defined storm system is visible on this evening's satellite pics, centered along the Iran/Afghanistan border. This system is going to bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms into our area by mid-day Monday, with the best rain potential between late afternoon and very early Tuesday morning. With clouds and showers, of course our temperatures will be cooling off again.

The risk of showers will decrease a bit, temporarily, from late Tuesday through Wednesday, but then we'll have an increasing chance of rain/thunder Wednesday night into early Friday. And at least as of right now, drier weather and milder temps are teasing us as next weekend approaches.

near-term positives... (pm.09.mar.19)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Sat, 9 Mar 2019 20:33:00 +0530

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 43.7ºF (6.5ºC)
High temp: 58.3ºF (14.6ºC)
Precipitation: 0.01" (less than 1mm)

Full sunshine during the early and mid-morning gradually gave way to partly cloudy skies during the late morning -- with the temp at my location in the upper part of town climbing to the highest I've recorded since a very brief spell of mild weather on the 13th of Feb. But then there was some rogue thundershower development which produced a rain shower with some very small hail during the mid-afternoon. All of that action quickly dissipated though, with mostly clear skies again by the evening.

We're still poised for the mildest/warmest day of the season and the year tomorrow, Sunday, Uprising Day. Warming throughout all layers of the atmosphere, along with a minimal amount of moisture availability, will provide us with a good amount of sunshine and only the slightest risk of a brief afternoon shower.

A destabilizing atmosphere is on the way again by the middle of Monday, however, with a good chance of a few periods of rain and thunderstorms lasting into Tuesday. And unfortunately, the models have been trending toward a variably cloudy and off-and-on showery/thundery pattern through most of next week. The good news is that our temperatures should bounce back nicely whenever the sun peeks through. More incremental hints of spring.

a moderating trend... (pm.07.mar.19)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Thu, 7 Mar 2019 20:25:00 +0530

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 43.2ºF (6.2ºC)
High temp: 56.1ºF (13.4ºC)
Precipitation: none

We've had no precipitation right here in McLeod for the second day in a row (wow), but there were rain and snow showers with thunder in the higher elevations not only along the Dhauladhars this afternoon, but also along most of the higher mountain ranges of Himachal, Kashmir and Uttarakhand. Our temperatures continue their slow and gradual moderation.

That trend toward milder weather will persist during the coming two or three days, though there will continue to be a mentionable risk of a couple of passing rain showers tomorrow (Fri) into Saturday. Right now Sunday is looking very nice, with a good amount of sunshine, and temperatures near or exceeding the warmest we've experienced in 2019 so far.

A new storm system will threaten us with a period of more significant rain and thunderstorms late Monday into Tuesday... but it should move out by the middle of next week, with a surge of dry and pleasant springtime weather expected thereafter.

Check details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, above.

struggling upward... (pm.06.mar.19)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Wed, 6 Mar 2019 20:17:00 +0530

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 42.8ºF (6.0ºC)
High temp: 54.4ºF (12.4ºC)
Precipitation: none

Full sunshine during the early and mid-morning hours gave way to rapid cloud development over the mountains again today... but fortunately, the precipitation remained further up-mountain from us, with some significant rain and snow showers in the higher elevations along the Dhauladhars. My high temp was the mildest I've recorded since the 23rd of Feb.

We're not having a rapid and dramatic swing toward more springtime conditions, but the incremental changes during the coming week to ten days are looking rather encouraging. We've still got a mentionable risk of some rain showers in and around our area all the way through the upcoming forecast period, but there will also be some nice periods of sunshine, with a general moderation in temperatures.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (tab above) contains forecast details.

seasonal battles... (pm.05.mar.19)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Tue, 5 Mar 2019 20:28:00 +0530

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 40.6ºF (4.8ºC)
High temp: 51.4ºF (10.8ºC)
Precipitation: 0.20" (5mm)

What a great early-mid morning we had... with brilliant sunshine and milder temperatures. But -- with very cold air aloft, there was literally an explosion of cloudiness during the hour before noon, with the first round of sprinkles and light rain showers getting going right at mid-day. That led to a healthy round of rain showers and thunder between about 12:30 and 2:15pm... followed by clearing and another dose of sunshine during the mid-late afternoon... and then yet another round of showers/thunder during the evening between 5:00 and 6:30pm. All the while, the sun was shining not far downhill.

A massive temperature disparity exists along the western Himalayas... with very cold air entrenched to our north-northeast, and milder/warmer air building to our south. We are stuck right in the middle, which means we are in the zone of major instability. This situation is not going to ease up in the near future, so it looks like we are still in line for a wide variety of weather conditions -- sun, clouds, the threat of rain/thunder showers, as temperatures attempt to very slowly moderate.

We may break into some stable and significantly milder and drier weather (temporarily) over the weekend... but the pattern remains volatile and changeable until at least the middle of the month.

atmospheric conflicts... (pm.04.mar.19)>

ken.himalayas@gmail.com (Ken Smith) — Mon, 4 Mar 2019 20:35:00 +0530

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 39.9ºF (4.4ºC)
High temp: 53.8ºF (12.1ºC)
Precipitation: 0.40" (1cm) -- updated thru midnight

A batch of thundershowers developed just to our southwest this evening, and has been hanging overhead for a couple of hours now. We also had a couple of periods of showers early this morning, and some rumbling thunder during the mid-afternoon. But in addition to all that, there was also a good amount of sunshine in the midst of the cloudiness today, which boosted the high temp on my thermometer a few degrees higher than expected right around the noon hour.

A sprawling and expansive area of low pressure and very cold air aloft is keeping our atmosphere very unstable -- especially with the increasing strength of our early March sunshine warming up the surface layers during the daylight hours. We are now into the time of year when lingering winter elements are battling against the advance of springtime air building further south across the Indian sub-continent. There are several opportunities for some scattered showers to develop during the coming week, but at the same time, it looks like there will be a slow/gradual moderation in temperatures.

It still appears that we could see some fairly significant movement toward generally drier and warmer weather as we move into the middle of the month. Let's hope that pans out.