Me, Myself and My World

Artificial Intelligence is all around us- just not in a form we imagined back in the 80's and 90's

2011-02-27T20:18:00.000-08:00

A great article from Wired magazine - it talks about the pervasiveness of systems that emerged from the research done on AI in the last few decades but look deceptively like any other computer programs. The Turing Test as the determinant of machine intelligence is no longer in fashion. Instead, today's AI manifests itself more in form of drawing intelligent conclusions from massive data sets.

The year of Ox gives way to the year of Tiger

2009-12-31T12:07:00.001-08:00

This is a ceremony in Osaka marking the change of Zodiacs. 2009 - the year of Ox - gives way to 2010 - the year of Tiger. The tiger cub is quite naughty and irrepressible here - perhaps a sign of things to come in 2010 ;-)

Chernobyl Revisited - Ghost Town

2009-12-27T12:25:00.000-08:00

Chernobyl Revisited - Ghost Town

One of the most amazing and awe inspiring travelogue I've read in a long long time. This is a first person account of a motorcyclist named Elena in Ukraine. She lives near Kiev - about 130 kms from Chernobyl. She takes us through an illustrated ride into the heart of the biggest nuclear disaster the world has seen - apart from the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in WWII.

Elena doesn't describe herself much - she maintains the website without any commercial activity - no ads, no sponsorships, no request for donations. I guess this quote from here story describes her best, "The roads are blocked for cars, but not for motorcycles. Good girls go to heaven. Bad ones go to hell. And girls on fast bikes go anywhere they want. "

Infrastructure Spending Will Not Revive the Economy - WSJ.com

2009-12-26T18:41:00.000-08:00

Back in the 30s when Infrastructure spending got us out of the Great Depression, it was the infrastructure of the future - highways, dams, etc. Today, the equivalent would be spending on the 21st century infrastructure - technology, communication, healthcare, education. I agree with Andy on all the areas. I might add additional areas like - increased spending on radically new cures for diseases like cancer, diabetes and a variety of genetic disorders, making our schools the best in the world bar none, spending on new energy technology - solar, wind, gas and also safer nuclear power.

Infrastructure Spending Will Not Revive the Economy - WSJ.com

Bacteria turn tiny gears

2009-12-21T18:44:00.000-08:00

If only we can harness the power of bacteria to do all our manual work - pure salvation and nirvana! Read the full article from Wired here.

"The power of swimming bacteria can be harnessed to turn tiny gears, opening the possibility of building hybrid biological machines at the microscopic scale."

Airlines lighten their loads in quest to save fuel

2009-12-20T10:49:00.000-08:00

Things are getting scary with this move towards clean and cost cutting measures in the aviation industry. Now, I am not against either cost cutting or cleaner environment, but when you start taking operational decisions based on these factors and not on the key parameter for running an airline - that is passenger safety, then you are headed towards a disaster. And Japan is a country which has had its share of aviation disasters - so you'd expect them to be more cognizant of the pitfalls.

Instead of compromising on passenger safety and comfort, airlines would do far better by focusing on improvements in areas that contribute both to reduced energy consumption and increased passenger comfort. Here are the top ones that come to mind:

1. Reduce the amount of time airplanes spend on the tarmac - both waiting for the takeoff and taxiing after landing.

2. Improve air traffic control - reduce the amount of time airplanes spend circling over airports waiting for their turn to land.

3. Renew their fleets - get rid of the old 70's and 80's planes they are still flying - these have older fixtures that are heavier, they are less fuel efficient, higher maintenance costs and are quite uncomfortable and depressing for the passengers.

4. Gain real fuel economies by technological improvements - like Southwest did with modified wingtips - gaining almost 5% in fuel efficiency:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/biztravel/2006-06-05-winglet-money_x.htm

Here's the article from Asahi.com that details some of the more trivial stuff which to me seems to increase the hassle and discomfort of flying while achieving little in terms of improved fuel efficiency or cleaner environment:

http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-asahi/TKY200912170116.html

Airlines lighten their loads in quest to save fuel

BY YOSUKE AKAI

THE ASAHI SHIMBUN

2009/12/17

In a quest to reduce passenger weight to save fuel and cut carbon dioxide emissions, one Japanese airline made an unorthodox request: It asked passengers to use the toilet before flying.

Concern about global warming has prompted the nation's carriers to devise a range of novel ways to slash the amount of fuel they use.

In August, Japan Airlines Corp. introduced a comprehensive operation to reduce the weight of staff luggage and in-flight items.

The carrier began using plastic bottles rather than glass for in-flight wine. The plastic variety is about one-seventh as heavy as the glass version, which weighs roughly 140 grams each.

The airline also shortened the handles of spoons and forks, and started using lighter plates. It has even cut its in-flight magazines for international flights--by about 60 grams per copy.

In July, JAL flight attendants began a campaign to reduce the weight of their carry-on bags by 2.5 kilograms. Over the three-month period to September, they collectively lightened their load by 7 tons.

Marina Okada, a 28-year-old JAL flight attendant, said she had refilled her cosmetics "from the original bottle to smaller ones, or even brought along sample products."

She has also swapped a 2-liter plastic water bottle for a 500 milliliter version, and now carries paperbacks instead of large women's fashion magazines.

Instead of providing a fixed number of newspapers for every flight, JAL now adjusts the amount to match the volume of seats reserved.

It has stopped serving some unpopular alcoholic beverages, and, whereas it used to fill water storage tanks to capacity, it now fills them only to a level that staff estimate to be necessary.

All Nippon Airways Co., meanwhile, has combined a manual explaining how to operate the in-flight entertainment system with the in-flight magazine to save weight.

Arguably its most unusual idea--carried out in October--was to ask passengers on 38 domestic flights to use the bathroom before boarding.

The airline estimates that if 20 percent of roughly 400,000 passengers use the bathroom before boarding over a one-month period, the amount of carbon dioxide emissions from the plane would be reduced by 4.7 tons, or equivalent to the amount of carbon dioxide absorbed over the course of a year by 330 Japanese cedar trees.

Landing procedures have also come under scrutiny.

Normally, planes level off while making their final approach to allow for sufficient distance between the planes scheduled to land before and after them. Extra fuel is needed to increase engine thrust during this process.

When the conditions are right, some planes have taken to reducing the amount of level flight as much as possible and moving diagonally into a direct landing approach.

An effective way of reducing carbon dioxide emissions is to switch to aircraft that offer better fuel economy.

In October, JAL tried an experiment to determine how much carbon dioxide emissions could be cut without changing the aircraft, but only by reducing the amount of fuel used.

The company dubbed the demonstration flight from Honolulu to Kansai International Airport the "ultimate eco-flight," and said it included every conceivable measure to reduce the burden on the environment.

The standard volume of fuel required for such a flight, including reserve fuel, is about 98,000 liters.

However, about 5,400 liters was conserved on the eco-flight, or about 5.5 percent of the standard fuel volume.

The saving is equivalent to a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of about 13,000 kilograms.

An official at the Scheduled Airlines Association of Japan said that "Japanese companies have undertaken a considerable range of very specific measures, including converting to new aircraft, to save on fuel. There will have to be major technological innovation in order to reduce emissions much further."

The official added that "the global airline industry should be doing more to cut carbon dioxide emissions, especially those nations that continue to use aircraft with poor fuel economy."

A central issue for the global airline industry is whether to restrict carbon dioxide emissions on international flights.

The Kyoto Protocol on global warming that took effect in 2005 covers emissions from domestic flights for advanced nations.

But it does not set targets for international flights on the grounds those flights cross national borders.

According to the International Energy Agency, carbon dioxide emissions from international flights increased by 60 percent in 2007 over 1990 levels.

While those emissions only represent about 1 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions, there are concerns they could rise dramatically on the back of growing airline passenger demand in newly emerging economies in Asia, such as China.

In October, the International Civil Aviation Organization compiled a declaration calling for an annual improvement of 2 percent in fuel efficiency for the entire global airline industry.(IHT/Asahi: December 17,2009)

FLEETWOOD MAC - HYPNOTIZED

2009-12-18T00:08:00.001-08:00

It's the same kind of story
That seems to come down from long ago
Two friends having coffee together
When something flies by their window
It might be out on that lawn
Which is wide, at least half of a playing field
Because there's no explaining what your imagination
Can make you see and feel

Seems like a dream
(They) got me hypnotized

Now it's not a meaningless question
To ask if they've been and gone
I remember a talk about North
Carolina and a strange, strange pond
You see the sides were like glass
In the thick of a forest without a road
And if any man's hand ever made that land
Then I think it would've showed

Seems like a dream
(They) got me hypnotized

They say there's a place down in Mexico
Where a man can fly over mountains and hills
And he don't need an airplane or some kind of engine
And he never will
Now you know it's a meaningless question
To ask if those stories are right
'Cause what matters most is the feeling
You get when you're hypnotized

Seems like a dream
(They) got me hypnotized

"Eye in the Sky" - The Alan Parsons Project (LIve)

2009-12-17T23:32:00.001-08:00

Awesome Low Riders from Fremont

2009-12-17T23:10:00.000-08:00

All my friends know the low rider
The low rider is a little higher
Low rider drives a little slower
Low rider is a real goer
Low rider knows every street yeah!
Low rider is the one to meet yeah!
Low rider don't use no gas now
Low rider don't drive to fast
Take a little trip
Take a little trip
Take a little trip and see
Take a little trip
Take a little trip
Take a little trip with me

Beautiful sunset at Dumbarton

2009-04-11T20:22:00.000-07:00

Electric DeLorean back for the future

2009-03-14T13:34:00.000-07:00

asahi.com（朝日新聞社）：Electric DeLorean back for the future - English

Trust the Japanese to take a great idea and make it better. DeLorean - one of the most iconic cars of the 80s gets a new lease of life from university teachers and students in Hiroshima. There may be a commercial proposition here - how about an electric conversion kit to breathe life into all the old cars. Instead of junking old cars and recycling only a portion of metal, you could recycle 100%. Think of all the landfills, the energy used for recycling metal, the pollution and the terrible waste that could be avoided. This whole concept of having a new car every 3-5 years is so out of line with the current focus on environment - I wish someone would take up these real recycling ideas in right earnest.

How much difference 9 months make

2009-03-09T20:49:00.000-07:00

I just noticed my blog post from last June and gas was touching almost $5. This weekend I took another picture with gas at close to $2!
How long do we have before inflation sets in? I say drive all you can - see California. I can recommend this great show - "Bay Area Backroads" for some excellent weekend driving ideas:

Here's the picture from June 2008

Stimulate Manufacturing, Not Consumption

2009-01-04T12:48:00.001-08:00

I love this quote from Joel Kotkin's article, "we have deluded ourselves into believing that a small number of "creative" alchemists--software engineers, hedge fund managers, urban developers--could transform code, cash and condos into limitless pots of gold. The huge winnings of these few would then allow the rest of us to spend like teenagers on a borrowed credit card, consuming everything made by the hard-working fools abroad."

Read on...
http://www.forbes.com/2008/12/29/manufacturing-productivity-stimulus-oped-cx_jk_1230kotkin_print.html

New Geographer
Stimulate Manufacturing, Not Consumption
Joel Kotkin 12.30.08, 12:01 AM ET

As store earnings plunged last week, the National Retail Federation proposed that the country create the mother of all sales by suspending taxes on all purchases. These tax holidays would occur in March, July and October and be national in scope.

The bill, they suggested, should be picked up by--who else?--the federal taxpayer, who would make up for the lost local revenues even for the five states without sales taxes. The rationale, suggests the Federation's chairman, J.C. Penney Chief Executive Myron Ullman III, in a letter to President-elect Barack Obama, would be "to help stimulate consumer spending as one of the first priorities of your new administration."

Now I can understand the manager at the local Target, Macy's or Nordstrom feeling a bit neglected as money pours out to prop up financial institutions and the Big Three. This proposed subsidy for mallrats, however, makes the previous somewhat-dubious bailouts look like good policy.

In fact, if there is one thing Americans do not need, it is yet another incentive to spend money they do not have. This has become a fixture of stimulus-think under the Bernanke-Bush regime. Remember the tax rebates earlier in the year? That was a big help, wasn't it?

Sadly, this "shop 'til you go bankrupt" strategy is being adopted by the new kingpins in Washington as well. Already you can hear Barney Frank, chair of the House Financial Services Committee, talking about a big stimulus to "prop up consumption."

This quick-fix approach has become a new genus of bipartisan madness. Like "the best minds of my generation ... looking for an angry fix"--to recall Allen Ginsberg's Howl--politicians and policymakers seem to feel we need some quick high to restore our battered economy.

Like a bad drug habit, reckless stimulation may make us feel better in the short term, but it could leave us shaky later on. To be effective over time, a stimulus plan must first address some fundamental challenges that have haunted the American economy for a generation.

Of course, there are countries that should be spending more. Places like China, Germany and Japan have gotten fat off our consumption. Now their beggar-thy-neighbor policies are backfiring as shopaholic nations, most notably the U.S., rein in their spending.

In contrast, our economy's failing stems from not producing nearly enough in goods and services to pay our bills. Our long-term weakness stems not from a shortage of consumer credit--the main obsession of Wall Street and both parties--but from the decline in manufacturing, growing dependence on imported fuel and deteriorating basic infrastructure.

Our consumption patterns--coupled with disdain for production--explain how our deficit in goods-related trade alone has soared over the past two decades from roughly $100 billion annually to over $800 billion. In the process, we have created an enormous shift in currency reserves to countries like China, Russia, India, Korea, Brazil and Taiwan. They produce and save too much; we consume and borrow too much.

Reversing this dangerous disequilibrium does not necessitate the end for American-style capitalism--as suggested recently by France's president, Nicolas Sarkozy--but instead a paradigm shift within it.

First, we need to swear off our addiction to hype-driven bubbles, seen first in technology and more recently in real estate. The fact that the government may be about to start yet another--this one colored "green"--suggests bad habits are hard to break.

Of course, bubbles certainly benefit some individuals and companies, most notably the financial sectors, who can best take advantage of wild speculative swings. The financial sector's share of profits more than doubled as a percentage of national income since the 1980s.

However, this pattern has not worked so well for most Americans, who have seen their wages stagnate or even fall. Most of us would benefit far more from robust growth that stems from productive industries like energy, fiber, food, logistics and manufacturing. Parts of the industrial Midwest, Texas and the Southeast have enjoyed expansions in these fields--until the onset of the recession, at least.

More important, productive economic growth creates demography far more egalitarian than the Namibia-like bifurcation that characterizes bubble centers like Manhattan and San Francisco. In fact, notes University of Washington demographer Richard Morrill, areas with greater concentration of these kinds of industries tend to suffer less inequality and offer better prospects for the average middle class worker.

Concerns over income equality should persuade Democrats--the supposed party of the people--to focus primarily on the basics of economic growth. This is precisely what we have not been doing for over a generation.

Just think of the billions sunk into convention centers, yuppie condos, performing arts centers and other ephemera. These produce some high-wage short-term construction and architecture jobs, but after that, they offer largely low-paying service work. Meanwhile the Chinese and other competitors dredge new harbors, build high-speed rail systems, new freeways and fiber-optic lines--the keys for pushing their economies to the next stage.

Sure, you can say, the Chinese are also hurting from this financial crisis. But at least they can pay for their own stimulus. The Germans, Russians and Japanese, for now, can also dip into their dollar reserves to pay for new infrastructure investment. In contrast, we will have to beg the money for our stimulus like some busted-up small-town bookie.

More serious yet, the real problem may be whether we even want to make the changes necessary to boost our economy. Americans were once masters of both innovation and production, but we have begun to fall behind on both counts.

Indeed, our policies no longer focus on such things as manufacturing and energy production, deeming them beneath our dignity. As early as the mid-1980s, the New York Stock Exchange issued a report baldly stating that "a strong manufacturing economy is not a requisite for a prosperous economy."

At the same time, we have deluded ourselves into believing that a small number of "creative" alchemists--software engineers, hedge fund managers, urban developers--could transform code, cash and condos into limitless pots of gold. The huge winnings of these few would then allow the rest of us to spend like teenagers on a borrowed credit card, consuming everything made by the hard-working fools abroad.

By now we should know better. Americans possess no monopoly on "creativity." Our suppliers abroad are using the billions made from selling us everyday stuff to help finance future moves up the value-added scale. You can see it in every critical field from aerospace, steel and pharmaceuticals to software services, fashion design and entertainment.

Americans can meet this challenge but not by goading the family to spend more at Wal-Mart. Instead, we need to remember what actually drives economic growth. The ultimate fate of the economy will not be determined in the malls, but in the mines, oilfields, farms, factories, design shops and laboratories of a more productive economy.

Joel Kotkin is a Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and executive editor of www.newgeography.com. He is finishing a book on the American future and writes a weekly column for Forbes.com.

Technorati Tags: economy, manufacturing, consumption, bailout, stimulus, china, india, software, hedge funds

Dumbarton Bridge, Fremont, CA

2009-01-02T22:41:00.000-08:00

Santa Cruz Beach - Christmas 2008

2009-01-02T22:33:00.000-08:00

The dumbfounded jolly bird - a poem

2009-01-02T14:37:00.000-08:00

The dumbfound jolly bird
Streaking by the seashore,
With the slowly iceberg-white leaves

Flogging while the virtuous sea
On the viperish kings star-struck
Goes to burn against the sixpenny night.

Like this poem? How about writing one yourself? It's not difficult - just t try this website:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/wales/arts/sites/themes/books/dylan_thomas_rpg.shtml?

To me the computer generated poem sounds no more gibberish than some of the human-written ones - if you get enough literary critics analyzing this, they may come up with a pretty good explanation of what the poet (in this case the random poem generation program) is trying to convey :-)

Six Day shhopping week

2008-12-28T20:10:00.000-08:00

How long before we see this in USA? Seems like the thing to do - although I have no idea if this has proven to be successful in other markets - like Europe where it's been tried before.

6-day Week for Isetan, Mitsukoshi

THE ASAHI SHIMBUN

2008/12/29

Isetan Mitsukoshi Holding Ltd. announced over the weekend that it will revive its custom of closing its department stores for one day once a week.

Under measures to take effect as early as April, it said it would also cut back operating hours.

The operator hopes to save some 2 billion yen a year by reducing staff and utilities costs, officials said.

Sales at Isetan and Mitsukoshi flagship stores dropped around 10 percent in the first half of December from the same period in 2007.

Currently, only New Year's Day is a fixed holiday at both Isetan and Mitsukoshi stores.

The two chains scrapped their weekly closed days in 2000. Department stores had reduced shop closing days while extending operating hours since the 1990s.(IHT/Asahi: December 29,2008)

Technorati Tags: japan, recession, shopping, six day week

Is democracy a panacea?

2008-12-14T22:14:00.000-08:00

A lot of people in India are feeling that democracy is overrated - it hasn't helped us deal with the national security issues and the tough economic decisions - specially on infrastructure fall prey to political in-fighting and vote bank politics. The Western media though continues to give India higher marks than China - perhaps to fulfill its own prophecy!

I'm kinda divided on this - I see good reasoning on both sides of the debate - haven't come to a conclusion yet. What do you think?

Icons of our times - a great one from www.businesspundit.com

2008-12-14T22:10:00.000-08:00

Another one bites the dust

2008-09-27T09:32:00.000-07:00

Another giant fell this week - no I'm not talking about the financial services companies like Lehman, AIG and WaMu. At the height of the so called strong economy (fueled primarily by cheap mortgage and home equity) we had International launch this monster truck - the CXT in 2004. Recently they announced they would discontinue it. Well, gas prices have almost doubled since 2004 and house prices have halved (don't contest the figures, they may be exaggerated but not by much) - so it shouldn't come as a surprise. I'd like to know more about the people who bought these monsters - wikipedia page says Ashton Kutcher was one of them. If you know of more owners, do comment here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_MXT

Buy an apartmnet, get a BMW free

2008-09-21T19:22:00.000-07:00

Another one of "This happens only in India" phenomenon. I don't if this signifies a weakening of the property market or it's just a reflection of the enormous wealth being built up in the country.

Move over Hollywood, here comes Bollywood

2008-09-20T11:55:00.000-07:00

Did you see the Hollywood sign up on the hills near LA recently? I swear I just looked and the H was starting to look more like a B! I wonder why? Could it have something to do with this breaking news:

Anil Ambani group, Spielberg to set up $1.5 billion studio

India's Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group and celebrated filmmaker Steven Spielberg are setting up a new studio in Los Angeles under a $1.5-billion project that will make films for global audiences, sources familiar with the negotiations said Saturday.

The mega deal - which will help Spielberg break away from DreamWorks, now owned by Viacom's Paramount Pictures - will be funded by a mix of equity and debt, and also involve leading investment banker JP Morgan Chase, the sources added.

"The venture will reflect the new reality in today's world of cinema where box office collections for Hollywood movies are much larger outside, than in the US," said one source involved in the negotiations.

"This strategic pact is being keenly watched as it involves the coming together of an Indian company that has its own grand plans in the media and entertainment space, and one of the most decorated filmmakers in the world," the source added.

"This project goes beyond mere financials and gives the Indian group the rights across various platforms - theatres, home video, DVD."

The Mumbai-based industrial house remained tight-lipped. "At the moment, we have no comments to make over this issue," a spokesperson for the group told IANS from their headquarters.

Apart from Spielberg, winner of three Academy awards who has to his credit films like "Schindler's List", "Star Wars", "ET, The Extra Terrestrial" and "Jurassic Park", the new venture also ropes in his long-standing associate Stacey Snider, who was the chairperson of Universal Studios till 2006,

Snider, who had since been the chief executive of DreamWorks, has been involved in some acclaimed productions like "Erin Brockovich", "The Fast and the Furious", "The Mummy", "A Beautiful Mind", "American Pie" and "Brokebeck Mountain".

As a combination, Spielberg and Snider are regarded as the most successful filmmaking duo in history.

DreamWorks was formed with much fanfare in 1994. But after an uneven run, it was sold to Viacom'a Paramount in 2006 for $1.6 billion. Since then, Spielberg and his team were eager to part ways with Paramount.

According to sources, the Anil Ambani group and Spielberg decided to join hands both for the financial stability of their new venture and convergence of their ideas for the world of media and entertainment.

Ambani's Reliance Big Entertainment had announced in Cannes in May that it would make a major foray into Hollywood and develop projects in partnership with some best-known actors like Brad Pitt, Tom Hanks, Nicolas Cage, Jim Carrey and George Clooney.

This marked the biggest foray of an Indian entity in Hollywood's motion picture industry. Thirty films are likely to emanate from Reliance's co-financing and 10 will go into production soon, company officials had said.

The entertainment business of the Anil Ambani group has interests in movies, FM radio, music, sports, gaming, Internet and mobile portals, direct-to-home TV, Internet TV and Mobile TV.

The group, which also has a major presence in mobile telecom, financial services and energy sectors, had acquired in 2005 Adlabs Films Ltd, one of India's the largest entertainment companies with interests in film processing, production, exhibition and digital cinema.

The group recently acquired 250 screens in US and 51 screens in Malaysia.

Paramount, meanwhile, said it will not delay matters for Spielberg and his team, including DreamWorks partner David Geffen and chief executive Snider, in forging the pact with the Indian group.

"To facilitate a timely and smooth transition, Paramount has waived certain provisions from the original deal to clear the way for the DreamWorks principals and their employees to join their new company without delay," the studio said.

"Steven is one of the world's great storytellers and a legend in the motion picture business. It has been an honour working closely with him and the DreamWorks team over the last three years," the studio added.

"We expect to continue our successful collaboration with Steven in the future," said the studio, while congratulating him and DreamWorks partner David Geffen and chief executive Stacey Snider in finalisng the pact with the Indian group.

Sanjay Kalra for President

2008-08-27T07:28:00.000-07:00

I'm counting on your vote this November!

Gas prices and the American travel experience

2008-08-13T18:42:00.000-07:00

Just a couple of observations - just a minute part of the many changes business and leisure travelers are facing today:

Southwest is giving out only one pack of peanuts instead of two that they have always handed out for as long as I can remember!

Avis is now asking for a gas pump receipt even if the fuel needle show full tank when you return the car! According to the agent who I spoke with today, it seems a lot of people who drive their rental cars for less than 75 miles do not fill up the car as the needle would hardly have moved.

Along with charging for pillows, for checked in luggage, meals, priority boarding, fuel surcharges, etc. - the list just goes on. Do you have any interesting travel stories related to gas prices?
Be sure to comment...

Bay Area Historical Landmarks - Mission San Jose and Shinn Home

2008-08-10T17:01:00.001-07:00

Check out my albums at http://picasaweb.google.com/kalrasanjay