Measuredmarkets : Études de cas

Novell/Elliott deal: Suspicious activity on 26 February: WHAT generated the extremely unusual # of trades and volume, far exceeding the norms?

Thu, 04 Mar 2010 20:18:33 GMT

"Enterprise software marker and leading technology company Novell, Inc. (NasdaqGS: NOVL - News) announced that it has received a buyout offer from Elliott Associates, L.P., the largest institutional stockholder of Novell, which holds approximately 8.5% of NOVL common stock. Elliott is an investment firm with over $16 billion in assets.

Under the unsolicited offer, Elliott Associates plans to acquire Novell for $5.75 per share in cash, which implies an enterprise value net of cash of $1.0 billion. This price represents a premium of 49% over the company's current enterprise value, 77% over the company's 90-day volume-weighted average enterprise value and a 115% premium over the company's enterprise value on January 4, 2010, when Elliot planned to purchase Novell."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Novell-to-be-Acquired-by-zacks-3861939009.html?x=0

Date	Price	Volume	Trades	Total Deviation	Price Flags	Volume Flags	Trades Flags	Total Flags
2010-03-03	6.080	141,311,904	137,954	319.785278	7	9	9	25
2010-03-02	4.750	11,519,106	12,186	2.514018	0	9	0	9
2010-03-01	4.800	5,220,418	14,179	0.000000	0	0	0	0
2010-02-26	4.700	7,791,347	23,414	2.956910	2	7	7	16
2010-02-25	4.810	4,630,655	13,989	0.013095	1	0	2	3
2010-02-24	4.860	2,407,972	8,134	0.000000	0	0	0	0
2010-02-23	4.840	2,165,107	7,937	0.000000	0	2	0	2
2010-02-22	4.920	4,310,580	12,609	0.000000	0	0	0	0
2010-02-19	4.930	4,144,964	10,817	0.000023	1	0	0	1
2010-02-18	4.960	2,894,998	8,726	0.005957	4	0	0	4
2010-02-17	4.850	3,465,188	11,172	0.000000	0	0	0	0
2010-02-16	4.860	2,694,873	8,602	0.000274	1	1	1	3
2010-02-12	4.750	4,533,492	12,040	0.000000	0	0	0	0
2010-02-11	4.760	3,820,812	13,159	0.000000	0	0	0	0
2010-02-10	4.790	3,610,810	9,653	0.000000	0	1	1	2
2010-02-09	4.840	4,374,822	15,807	0.000000	0	0	0	0
2010-02-08	4.740	5,036,274	13,899	0.000000	0	0	0	0
2010-02-05	4.720	4,017,736	13,817	0.000000	0	0	0	0
2010-02-04	4.680	4,853,909	14,030	0.000000	0	0	0	0
2010-02-03	4.820	5,394,074	14,850	0.000000	0	0	0	0

Berens Energy: was there some insider trading ahead of the PetroBakken deal news?

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 02:53:55 GMT

Notice the extremely high volume and number of trades on 18 December. Might this, in the absence of other news, indicate insider trading?

2-PetroBakken to buy Berens for light oil exposure

CALGARY, Alberta, Jan 4 (Reuters) - PetroBakken Energy Ltd (PBN.TO) said on Monday it is buying smaller Berens Energy Ltd (BEN.TO) for C$271 million ($261 million) to establish a position in a prolific but technically challenging oil prospect in Alberta.

PetroBakken will acquire natural gas production in central Alberta as well as a toehold in the emerging cardium light oil play, which is similar to the Bakken region in southern Saskatchewan, where the company cut its teeth in applying horizontal drilling and rock-fracturing technology.

The deal caps off a six-week process for Berens, a junior oil and gas producer, during which it weighed strategic alternatives with the help of financial advisers.

Under the deal, PetroBakken will pay C$2.70 per Berens share, a 33 percent premium over the stock's closing price last Thursday.... [Reuters 4 January 2010]

Date	Price	Volume	Trades	Total Deviation	Price Flags	Volume Flags	Trades Flags	Total Flags
2010-01-04	2.670	21,839,988	843	563.758545	9	9	9	27
2009-12-31	2.030	156,381	90	0.117637	3	0	0	3
2009-12-30	2.040	215,235	75	0.126664	3	0	0	3
2009-12-29	2.090	542,038	257	0.183789	2	0	1	3
2009-12-24	2.100	38,171	34	0.147839	3	0	0	3
2009-12-23	2.130	174,637	135	0.168469	3	0	0	3
2009-12-22	2.130	233,922	201	0.177758	3	0	0	3
2009-12-21	2.200	405,895	234	0.549800	7	0	0	7
2009-12-18	2.150	1,475,288	536	10.627917	7	5	3	15
2009-12-17	1.980	171,760	89	0.196185	3	1	0	4
2009-12-16	1.950	805,625	195	0.142909	3	0	0	3
2009-12-15	1.970	1,062,014	683	7.883959	3	1	5	9
2009-12-14	1.960	351,209	372	1.017932	3	0	2	5
2009-12-11	1.950	1,061,807	343	1.314833	3	2	2	7
2009-12-10	2.000	639,247	410	2.477809	4	0	4	8
2009-12-09	2.000	1,161,569	295	1.864612	5	3	2	10
2009-12-08	1.950	366,200	161	0.278405	4	0	0	4
2009-12-07	1.900	374,528	270	0.414563	4	0	1	5
2009-12-04	1.960	289,300	223	0.408811	5	0	0	5
2009-12-03	1.970	178,490	254	0.586805	5	0	1	6