The post The Multicultural Listener of the Future appeared first on Bolton Research.

 When it comes to media metrics, it is always important to keep the big picture in mind.  Here’s a handy checklist brought to you by Jon Vein, CEO of MarketShare.

POST WRITTEN BYJon VeinCo-Founder & CEO of MarketShare, which helps large companies measure, predict and dramatically improve marketing’s impact on revenue

It’s happening more and more. Big companies are using advanced analytics technology to improve marketing effectiveness and generate more revenue per ad dollar spent. As a result, they are delivering tens, and sometimes even hundreds of millions of “found” dollars to their bottom lines. Short of creating some killer new product or service, there are few if any ways a big company CEO can move the needle quite so dramatically.

But it’s not easy. Analytical approaches and effectiveness vary widely as big brands struggle to cram Big Data benefits into a revenue bottle. Scale is often an issue. Organizational adoption at companies not yet analytically oriented can also be a struggle.  Concepts such as attribution remain misunderstood. And the ability to translate hard-won insights into better decision making varies widely.

Yet the rewards of advanced analytics are undeniable. And companies getting it right are often reluctant to talk about their success because it generates a competitive advantage they want to protect. As a result, the successful CEOs are not necessarily letting other CEOs in on the secret.

There are, however, some common traits and helpful tips emerging from companies successful with advanced marketing analytics. This “cheat sheet” offers six tips that every CEO should be urging his or her marketing organization to heed:

1.  First Do No Harm: In many ways, advanced, “Big Data” marketing analytics is like proverbial “rocket science.” MarketShare, for example, has an exceptionally high ratio of PhDs on staff. But the science is not isolated. It is meant to serve the reality of today’s increasingly complex marketing ecosystem. Good math, without context and business judgment, can lead a CEO down the wrong path.  Those practicing marketing analytics should subscribe to the same oath as the medical field, “first do no harm.” Done incorrectly, fancy analytics can actually yield results that are worse than those driven by gut and intuition.  In other words, if analytical approaches or results don’t comport with your gut as a CEO, challenge them – do not assume that merely because those delivering analytical recommendations are smart or experienced, that those recommendations are correct.

For example, if you’ve launched online ad campaign, but the competition cuts prices by 40%, your actual results will not comport with the modeled predicted results unless your models account for those sorts of competitive realities.  While rich analytics can, and often do, results in “a ha” moments for CEO’s, more often than not they reinforce gut and intuition, but with far more accurate results than gut, intuition and traditional approaches alone.

2.  A forward-looking bias is essential. The sophisticated models being built today to allocate and optimize marketing resources bear little resemblance to marketing mix modeling of yesteryear. Today’s better models don’t merely analyze historical information; they uncover relationships between market factors. They account for all paid, owned and earned influences, and analyze customer behavior across a full range of both online and offline activities that ultimately lead to purchase.

Most importantly, they then transform those insights into simulations and optimizations that answer questions such as “if we do this, what happens next?”. This is only possible when the analytic models create a seamless view from past to future. And delivering these insights through software, rather than mere PowerPoint presentations, is critical.

3.  Your own data isn’t enough. You need broader industry knowledge. No company possesses all of the data it needs to make good decisions. True insights also require outside data and benchmarking knowledge derived from global experience across a broad array of industries, and the aggregated observations of other companies’ successes and failures. At MarketShare, for example, we’ve learned that the only way to get that experience is to earn it – one model at a time – across hundreds of assignments, dozens of industries, and many countries. But even that isn’t sufficient.

To build truly insightful models you need to complement your own perspective with rich data streams from the world’s leading data providers (Google GOOGL +0.7%, Twitter TWTR -1.8% and Facebook to name just a few) at scale to increase accuracy and generate better predictions, faster.

4.  You must track the entire purchase journey.  Your analytic models must recognize and account for a multitude of indirect pathways that can influence the consumer journey. For example, what causes prospective customers to visit your website? What truly influences them to buy, and to tell others about you? Today’s sophisticated models are actually ingenious systems of equations which combine dozens-to-hundreds of smaller models into a larger “intelligence system”. This takes skill and creativity, but it also takes a substantial investment in technologies to help the modeler explore the thousands of possible relationships and efficiently identify the few that make the biggest difference.

5.  Great granularity is good: Increasingly granular models and approaches can peer ever more deeply into what’s happening at product, market, channel, segment, and even individual levels. This helps you scale analytics across many decision-points, improve predictive precision and apply insights more quickly to marketing decisions. By starting at the top and drilling down, marketers can see big trends AND examine individual pathways-to-purchase. In other words, you need both “top-down” (aggregated, market level) and “bottom-up” (individual pathway) insights to achieve the best results. This is only possible, however, when you have the platforms to build and synch all those models, and the technology to quickly simulate a full spectrum of options to find the best solutions.

6.  Cross-pollinating skills help.  And just as the models matter, so do the people who build them. A-list data and modeling expertise is essential. A mix of influences works best. For example, statisticians have a way of building models that result in high degrees of confidence in the accuracy of historical observations. Econometricians build models that focus on an accurate depiction of how forces move together over time and interact with one another. Operations Research experts view modeling through the lens of forecasting and prediction. And those who have sat in leadership positions in business, finance, marketing and the like bring real-world insights that cannot be ignored.

In short, this kind of mix gives you a “right-brain/left-brain” view that more closely approximates what happens in the real world. Only when you have all of these perspectives do you get the accurate, credible, practical approach necessary to explain today’s complex ecosystem – and peer into the future.

These two article may also be of interest:  Where Sophistication Meets Scale andBeyond Marketing Mix Modeling

© 2014 MarketShare LLC. All rights reserved.  

The post A Social Media Cheat Sheet for CEOs appeared first on Bolton Research.

Sure he discussed the disruption in traditional news media, but his observations about local news confirmed many of the research results I have discussed in the past. Here are Chris Hughes’ thoughts about the paradigm shifting realities of news consumption in the emerging world of social media:

First and foremost, gatekeeping solely from centralized corporate news headquarters has had its day and is now coming to an end. The news collection process has gone from the select few to the undifferentiated many. Now anyone can report the news via social media and distribute it nationally via the web. The essence of how news is collected and disseminated has changed forever. It has gone from the few…to the millions.

Chris pointed out that Facebook has easily adapted to change because they decided from the beginning to remain content-neutral. They exert no control over editorial content and allow information to evolve according to the whims of the people. Editorial supervision does not exist for Facebook news and so it creates an organic news environment–allowing news to be created and disseminated naturally by those who use the social media platform.

News source directionality has also changed. In the past, people went first to the major news outlets for breaking stories and then they discussed the story among their friends, families, and co-workers. Now people first learn about the news from social media and then they go back to the traditional sources for more detailed information. Chris said the most frequently read articles in the New Republic are the long form articles, not the short condensed ones.

Traditional news reporters got their first jobs in local radio, TV, or newspapers then they went off to form websites and blogs. Now bloggers are being hired by major media groups. Chris cited Brian Stelter formerly with TVNewster who now writes for the New York Times. He thinks that’s the new direction for journalism.

Chris Hughes is a believer in local content. He points out that local TV news brands remain strong. This could be due to the higher credibility scores for local news outlets as well as the live local feel of familiar broadcasters in their area. Despite the prevalence of Facebook and Twitter, people still tune into their 5:00, 6:00, and 11:00 local news. Some things change and others remain the same. Live and local TV news remains a dominant force in today’s digital media landscape.

The post Chris Hughes, Co-Founder of Facebook, Says Branded Local TV News Will Continue to Prosper appeared first on Bolton Research.

First take a look at the Pew Research Center News Consumption Survey for 2012. Ten years ago 68 percent of the population said they got news from TV yesterday, compared to 55 percent today. That’s a 19 percent decrease.

Clearly this research documents the multi-platform nature of the news audience. Fifty percent of these folks are wired into mobile or Internet services (including Facebook and Twitter) for news updates. That means the available news sources go up but the individual media share of the audience has to go down…but how far down will it go? That may be a matter of trust and believability.

Who Do You Trust?

People were asked, “How much do you believe in each of the following sources of news?” And the winner is… Local TV News! Other news sources such Fox, MSNBC, and even NPR are at the bottom of the list. Are you surprised?

Here’s what may be happening: local TV news stations provide local information, provided by local newscasters, who cover local issues, that impact people in the local community. Their Believability Index is high partly because local viewers can check the local facts and they are hearing the news from trusted people who live in their own communities. That is tough to do on a national basis. Not so hard locally.

Now if that localism can be spread across multiple channels, meaning mobile and tablet, then we have a competitive advantage moving into the next decade. We understand that the multitasking multimedia mobile consumer is not going to go away. Not now…not ever. With that in mind, I offer up a simple equation for your future success:

Exposure + Believability = Ratings

Exposure means any and all media devices sending out your updated news stories 24/7. Believable means LOCAL talent as the stars, who create the inherent bonded credibility with your viewers. They are the ace pitchers in the bullpen who come out to win the ratings game. Be sure to keep tabs on your own Believability Index, because if this index goes down, then your competitive advantage may go away. I think believability is the digital currency of the future. What do you think?

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The post TV Viewership Down… Believability Up: What it Means to the Future of Local TV News appeared first on Bolton Research.

These researchers discovered that housewives needed to have some ownership in the cake in order to derive the required level of product satisfaction. Out go the powdered eggs and in go the instructions: “Just add two fresh eggs.” Sales skyrocketed because GM has taken care in designing the consumer experience.

What are you doing to craft the consumer experience within your product?

New research shows that when people are actively involved in the creation of a product, not only do they like the product more, but they even perceive it to have enhanced qualities that don’t even exist! Two researchers discovered that when consumers engaged in the preparation of a dinner kit meal they believed it tasted better than the exact same meal produced independently….. even though the two meals were exactly the same.

The authors concluded that the efforts consumers put into making the self made meal kit create a special alliance between the consumer and the brand. Think of it as Cook Book Marketing 101.

How can you get your audience to cook up a special program? Do you ask for their input? Do you involve them in the process? Do you provide personalized feedback about their suggestions? Is it a work in progress, or is it just a one time deal? Are you asking them to be the head chef or are you off in the back kitchen with the doors shut tight? Don’t you think it’s about time we open the door and let them in? Involvement = Ratings. What’s in your recipe book right now?

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The post Just Add Eggs: How and Why Your Audience Wants to Bake Up a Better Programming Mix Then What You Have Right Now appeared first on Bolton Research.

So how about a Feel-o-Meter for a TV or radio station? Let’s say you could wire an audience population to gauge mood 24/7. How often would the “indifference” face appear vs. the smiley face? What if the Broadcast Feel-o-Meter also recognized the intensity of the emotion, from weak to strong? How often would you be registering strong happiness?

Mood plays a critical role in nurturing long term audience preference because the creation of positive moods creates an almost Pavlovian response for repeated use. Feeling sad? Tune in to feel happy. Feeling indifferent? Tune in to get angry. Feeling sensitive? Tune in to hear a romantic song. You always want strong emotive response in each user experience so that your facility becomes the “go to” favorite for escape. The reinforcement of stimulus-reward creates preferences, and preferences become valuable long term fans.

Have you ever researched how audience members react emotionally to your programming by day part, by personality, or by program segment? Maybe you should so you can reinforce or change those moods according to what the audience is actually looking for. Think of it as your Mood GPS so that you are always in tune with audience preferences, and emotional needs. Right now there is far too much thinking put into PREFERENCE, and not enough thought put into THE HEART. Programming is a right brain, left brain equation. Not an either/or process. How much to you really know about your target audience’s emotional needs and the extent to which your programming fulfills those needs? Go beyond just preference data and learn about emotion. What moves the heart, will always move the ratings.

The post The Feel-o-Meter: Setting the Right Mood for Ratings Success appeared first on Bolton Research.

Well if you believe the polls, then you would think people vote with their brains. Pollsters ask: Who would you vote for today? Who do think is going to do the best job with the economy? How would you rate how the president is doing? How much do you trust Mitt? How is Obama handling the economy? Who do you think won the last debate?

What you end up with are piles of statistical data that exclusively works the logical side of the brain. The left brain thinkers.

But inside they campaigns they know better. They know that people vote for the candidate that creates the right feelings, not the candidate who presents the best arguments. They know that at least 75 percent of the voters make gut decisions, not cognitive ones.

They know not to run on issues alone, but to run on the personal values that create strong emotional responses. They know they have to manage the personal feelings that people have towards a candidate because those gut feelings will override the logical decision making inside the booth. It’s an issue of left brain vs. right brain realities.

Let’s do your own reality check. Do you think listeners and viewers are making voting decisions because you tell them you are the “best” or “the leader” or “#1 for ______” or “your trusted source” or “for over 20 years” or “you play the most ____”? Or do you think they are voting with their guts?

Do you know the emotional hot buttons that drive the right brain “gut” or are you researching all that left brain stuff? How are you spending your marketing dollars either internally or externally? Try this one: get out a piece of paper and draw a line down the middle. Write Left Brain on one side and Right Brain on the other. List every single marketing message you send out according to logical or emotional appeal. Are the columns balanced? Most come up with a lopsided left brain marketing strategy.

Who do you think will win the election? I think I know. It will be the candidate who wins the right brain election when those voters are all alone in the voting booth. Who’s winning the ratings election in your market? Maybe it’s because they are more right brain than you are.

The post Obama and Romney–Ratings Secrets from the Most Powerful Political Marketing Machines in History appeared first on Bolton Research.

But first let’s just set the stage with a real life situation. Let’s say the book just came out, and your station drops 3 ranker positions and puts you out of the most desirable buy demo in your market. Every single logical bone in your body tells you this should have been a great book. But no, it’s the worst book you’ve had in three years. So you sit and sweat. Rate cards may be changed. Your Sales Manager is suggesting programming changes. Your competition has a staff Celebration Party. Incentive bonus dollars fly out the window. You may even begin to question the format and twelve weeks worth of solid programming.

Fact vs. Fiction

So what is the truth? Do ratings respondents actually wear these Portable People Meters all of the time? Who gets the meters anyway? How can one family stay in a panel for at least a year, and sometimes even two years? What does Arbitron consider “cheating”? What do the PPM respondents tell us about their own real life experiences?

All these questions matter. They matter because your livelihood depends on it. There are two worlds. The world according to the people who actually listen to your radio station, and the world according to the people who agree to carry a meter for a year. They are not exactly the same. You need to know and understand the differences and program accordingly.

Here is what we do know: around 70% of the population refuses to cooperate with any rating service. That doesn’t necessarily mean they are cheating. It means they either don’t pick up their phones or open their mail from unknown companies. Some people shun the door to door solicitors that ask them to participate in a media research project. Others believe the cash incentive is not worth their time.

We also know that the sampling unit is not an individual. The sampling unit is a family unit. That can range from a single individual to a family of ten. If there is more than one individual over the age of 12, then everyone in the family is asked to participate. Do you want your entire family to be involved in a research project? Maybe not.

If you are asked to carry a meter, you have to keep it moving. If you can’t be bothered to carry a meter, is that cheating? How about if you already carry around a cell phone, a set of keys, a wallet or a purse, and don’t want to clip something onto your belt? Are you a cheater then? Docked meters fire up alerts in the home office and those respondents are encouraged to carry the meter or risk being thrown out. So if you decide not to carry a meter is that cheating? What if you go on vacation or have an extended hospital stay?

What if you attach your meter to your ceiling fan and leave a radio on? Maybe put it on your dog’s collar and let him roam the household while you head off to the grocery store. Is that cheating? After all…the meter is moving.

Let me make one thing crystal clear: my own research has found that the vast majority of the ratings respondents are responsible and caring individuals who diligently try to follow the instructions, carry the meters, and accept their monthly cash payments as a happy reward. They don’t want to cheat, and they try very hard not to cheat.

Therefore the question of cheating does not reside on the shoulders of the respondents. It resides on the nature of the sample and that’s what can drive you crazy when you go from first to worst in just one book. You need to deeply understand how PPM sampling really works and then you can intelligently react to the good books and the inevitable bad books without putting a gun to your head…or to your format.

Tell us your stories. What have you experienced in your lifetime? Have you experienced mostly real numbers and how many of them were just “system problems?” Maybe to this day you still really aren’t sure what happened. But then again… that my friend is exactly the problem.

The post Do Ratings Respondents Cheat? appeared first on Bolton Research.

The more some things change, the more these become familiar. Technical advancement has throughout history changed rules of engagement, but the rules of commerce tend to be what they have always been. The logic of markups, markdowns, and inventory management is generally consistent for online and offline retail, even if systems are different. The goal of increased traffic is the same for merchants in this century as it was for merchants in the last, even if methods vary. Advertising, marketing, promotions, whether on paper, in the mail, on television, radio, billboards, or on mobile devices deliver similar messages and are driven by the same fundamental business needs, regardless of industry or era. And regardless of technology or automation, the most valuable business asset tends one way or another to boil down to customer relationships. In media, which uniquely brings together merchants or customers, this is about community and following.

All About Networks and Customer Engagement

When innovative platforms such as for instance, Groupon, blend new techology and direct sales to build networks of local sellers and buyers, this is not fundamentally different from what local media platforms have done for decades…or in the case of newspapers, centuries. When social networks like LinkedIn combine individual information and professional interests with company profiles and contacts, this is only a stone’s throw away from the classifieds. Newsfeeds intermingled with the occasional sponsored ad on Twitter is news media in its most fundamental form, only mobile and more immediate than Twitter’s more traditional counterparts. Facebook, which is attempting to do more or less all of the above, is in this sense a sort of media conglomerate, even if it is still tinkering and experimenting with various recipes of advertising, promotions, and direct commerce. What all these new platforms rely on and strive for – communities of engaged users – is something the traditional media have built and nurtured since forever.

Diverging Perceptions About Converging Possibilities

Despite such parallels and similiarities, there seems to be a disconnect in perception and certainly in financial valuation, between the new and the more traditional media. Up to this point, the contrast has been justified. On one hand there are new technologies demonstrating enormous user adoption and global growth, while on the other hand there are mature businesses. One one hand there is a high option value, as innovation finds its place on volatile terrain, while on the other hand is the tried and true and that which – according to perception – is what it is, or more appropriately perhaps, what it was. We now seem, however, to find ourselves at a point where certain changes in environment are discernible, and which have the potential to change the dynamic described. On one hand, sector volatility is subsiding – which is to say, the newer media leaders are establishing their presence and drawing up their domains, while consumers are beginning to settle into seemingly lasting habits. On the other hand, new technologies – especially in data and targeting – are enabling new efficiencies to be extracted from large existing user bases in media consumption.

New Options for Established Assets

In short, the option value now is not necessarily – or not only – in the new platform with its new users, but also in new ways to access existing networks and tap into existing product. The newest opportunity, in other words, and one that is likely to last for some time, is for traditional media to incorporate new systems into its massive engaged networks already in place, and for the new media establishment to integrate older platforms and tap into enormous existing potential. Stated differently still, the new optionality and value creation opportunity in media – whether old or new – lies in the integration of established user networks with new technologies. In this new landscape, there is as much untapped value in traditional media, who audiences are as massive and as engaged, as any of their newer counterparts.

For more information, visit the CoRise website at www.coriseco.com, and read the author’s blog at www.discourseandnotes.com.

The post The Option Value of Traditional Media: What Is It and How Can It Be Leveraged appeared first on Bolton Research.

What is a brand promise? A brand promise is the promise you make with your customer day in and day out. It is that unique relationship you establish with your customers that provides a gratifying experience every single time they purchase or use your product. It is a form of trust, and goodwill that fosters repeat business and long term loyalty. It involves not only meeting your customer’s expectations, but exceeding their expectations with an occasional “wow” factor that generates valuable word of mouth endorsements between family and friends.

So how can you build upon your brand credibility in an ever increasing world of competitive information? Here are three important tips from the field:

Be there when they need you. Letting people know about your brand promise isn’t an occasional process. The need to let people know about your service at ALL times is important for two reasons. First, it reinforces their decision to use your product. People like to believe they are making the right purchase decision. Second, customers tend to have selective perception. They see you when they need you. If you’re not there, you will never be seen at a time of need and their business goes out the door. Be sure to be there when they need you the most.

Be true to your promise. Figure out the essence of your brand promise. Don’t spend money advertising marketing attributes that either aren’t true, or don’t matter to your customer. Find the “it” and make it a part of everything you do. That means everybody in your organization needs to understand your brand promise, what it means, and how they have to deliver on the promise. If you don’t believe, they won’t either.

Familiarity Breeds Preference. It is not surprising that the most meaningful consumer brands are the most familiar brands. Coke, Nike, Budweiser, Apple, Starbucks, Amazon, Walt Disney and McDonalds, to name a few. On a local level, you can’t expect to compete with these brand giants, but you can creatively spread your marketing message and marketing dollars so that you become the most familiar brand in your local category.  This marketing axiom always holds true…the more familiar someone is with your brand, the more likely they will engage in trial, usage and eventual loyalty. Become the most familiar brand in your category and you will likely become the most preferred brand in town.

So don’t get lost in the clutter and the noise. Work hard to create a credible brand that is familiar, faithful, and frequently seen. In the end, a game plan built around these basic brand building principles will pay for itself time and time again. If it works for McDonalds, it will work for you.

The post Media Savvy Consumers Seek Brand Credibility: Do You Have It? appeared first on Bolton Research.