MWN Blog

Transition of this blog platform to our main website

2024-06-08T12:31:00.006-05:00

As part of the migration of the MemphisWeather.net website, we have officially moved away from this platform for the MWN Blog. Blogger has been great to us, with over TWO THOUSAND posts since the first one on February 25, 2008! This blog pre-dated our entrance on Facebook and Twitter by almost exactly one year!

But since we moved our website to the Wordpress platform in May, we're now using the same platform for our blog posts, which nicely integrates the blog right into the website. So be sure to go straight to www.MemphisWeather.net (which was also designed to be ultra mobile-friendly) to find our latest musings on Mid-South weather. We've not stopped the blogs, just changed their location!

While you are on the new site, you can subscribe to get new blog posts emailed directly to you when published, or turn on notifications for the site, which will include new blogs as well as other important information we would like to push to you. Just like our no-hype content, we're also no-spam! You'll only hear from us for important stuff!

To those of you who have been following along since 2008 (or before), we extend our deepest gratitude for your long-time loyalty and hope that continues on our new site.

For the 2039th, and last, time on this platform...

Gratefully yours,

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Strong to severe storms likely Wednesday night

2024-05-07T19:17:00.005-05:00

Another severe weather event is poised to affect a large area, including the Mid-South, on Wednesday. The area under a heightened risk includes much of the Ohio Valley, mid to lower Mississippi Valley, to as far west as Dallas. Locally, the main threat window is Wednesday night between about 9pm-3am. (The event will not last that long, but models still disagree on exact timing. Expect storms to last for an hour or so, likely no more than two hours.)

But first, a chance the kids join you in bed tonight...

Prior to tomorrow night, scattered thunderstorms are again expected to fire up tonight along a frontal boundary that lingers over the area. As it lifts north as a warm front and the low level wind picks up overnight, storms will develop, and could be noisy. The well-known HD "HRRR" model thinks they could affect the area for multiple hours overnight. That could be overdoing it, but it might be one of those nights where the kids and pets crawl in bed with you. Fortunately, it appears the severe threat is not too high. We are in a level 1 risk in Memphis, with a few strong gusts or small hail the main threats.

A level 1 (Marginal) risk of severe weather exists tonight. (SPC)

Wednesday primes the pump for nocturnal storms

Much of Wednesday daylight hours will be dry, very muggy and warm, and windy. About what you would expect before a strong storm system in the spring! A few showers are possible, but overall the day sets the stage for the night by priming the pump with a lot of storm fuel (based on temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints near or above 70). The wind profile Wednesday night will also be fairly strong which will be supportive of the maintenance of severe storms once they get going. That means high wind to 60-70 mph is possible. Also, cold air aloft will support the potential for large hail (up to 2") in any storms that tap into the unstable air and wind shear. While tornadoes are a bigger threat well to our north, the wind shear values will be supportive of rotating storms that could spawn a spin-up tornado or two. Heavy rain is also expected, perhaps 1-2".

The severe weather threat for Wednesday night, likely between 9pm-3am

After the storm

By sunrise Thursday, storms will be long gone and we will actually get some sunshine. North wind will bring in drier air, though temperatures will still make it to the low 80s. Cooler air arrives Thursday night as we drop into the 50s. Friday-Sunday will see very nice springlike conditions with sunshine, morning lows in the 50s and afternoon highs in the 70s.

Prepare now!

But first, we'll get through Wednesday night by preparing ahead of time. Garage (or carport) your vehicles tomorrow night if at all possible, secure anything outdoors that you want to keep around a while, and have multiple ways of receiving severe weather warnings while sleeping. We of course highly recommend our own StormWatch+ app, available for iOS and Android in your app store. Wake-me-up audio for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings is included in the alert subscription.

p.s. In case you had not heard, we are rolling out a brand spanking new website on Saturday! Be sure to check MemphisWeather.net around noon for the unveiling!


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

April 2024 Climate Report for Memphis, TN

2024-05-03T08:59:00.002-05:00

April Climate Recap

The month of April was warmer than normal by almost 2 degrees, a trend repeated across a large portion of the country east of the Rockies. As is typical in April, large temperature swings occurred with high temperatures ranging from the upper 50's to the mid 80's, while lows ranged from near 40 to the upper 60's. Overall, the month was skewed warm through as the temperature reached 85 twice towards the end of the month, which was 12 degrees above normal. Overall, two-thirds of April days ended above average and a record high minimum (warmest low temperature) was set on the 1st (68 degrees), breaking the old record of 66 in 1884.

Departure from normal temperatures for April for the Lower 48 states

Precipitation was over 2.5" below normal for the month (about 55% of normal), despite recording rain on nearly half of the 30 days in April, which is four more than average. Most rain that fell was spotty and light although the wettest period was between the 7th-11th, with nearly 2" of rain falling. Totals for the month ended up at 3.32" at the airport and 3.82" in Bartlett, while the normal amount for the month is 5.87".

Severe weather occurred on the 2nd, 7th, and 8th with multiple reports of hail and wind damage. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings were in effect each of those days, while a couple of Tornado Warnings were issued north of the Memphis metro on the 2nd after storms moved out of the immediate area.

Severe weather reports received by the National Weather Service for the month of April (hail shown as pink/white icons and wind damage as yellow icons)

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature

Average temperature: 65.1 degrees (1.9 degrees above average)

Average high temperature: 73.8 degrees (0.4 degrees above average)

Average low temperature: 56.3 degrees (3.3 degrees above average)

Warmest temperature: 85 degrees (26th & 30th)

Coolest temperature: 41 degrees (5th & 22nd)

Heating Degrees Days: 93 (37 below average)

Cooling Degree Days: 102 (26 above average)

Records set or tied: Record high minimum broken (68 degrees on the 1st)

Comments: None

Precipitation

Monthly total: 3.32" (2.55" below average)

Days with measurable precipitation: 14 (4.4 days above average)

Wettest 24-hour period: 0.76" (2nd)

Snowfall: None

Records set or tied: None

Comments: None

Miscellaneous

Peak wind: South/45 mph (29th)

Average wind: 10.4 mph

Average relative humidity: 65%

Average sky cover: 59%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

MemphisWeather.net Headquarters, Bartlett, TN

Temperature

Average temperature: 65.2 degrees

Average high temperature: 76.0 degrees

Average low temperature: 55.2 degrees

Warmest temperature: 86.2 degrees (27th)

Coolest temperature: 37.0 degrees (22nd)

Comments: None

Precipitation

Monthly total: 3.82" (automated rain gauge), 3.72" (CoCoRaHS rain gauge)

Days with measurable precipitation: 15

Wettest date: 0.74" (7th) (via automated gauge)

Snowfall: None

Comments: None

Miscellaneous

Peak wind: Northwest/27 mph (11th)

Average relative humidity: 67%

Average barometric pressure: 29.98 in.

Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

Average temperature error: 2.06 degrees

Forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 68%

Average dewpoint error: 2.53 degrees

Forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 63%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

All-NEW MemphisWeather.net coming soon!

2024-04-27T12:20:00.000-05:00

Background

MemphisWeather.net began in 2003 as an expansion of a personal website ("Erik's Memphis Weather Page") that was designed primarily for friends and family to get local forecasts and other Memphis-centric weather information. With a brand established, word got out and the website visitor numbers grew - slowly most of the time, but by larger numbers during "big weather events." In 2007, the website was redesigned and a mobile version of the site was released a year later.

The front page of MemphisWeather.net as it looked in 2005. Who remembers this??

With the advent of social media in the late 2000's and launch of our first mobile app in 2011, the site's visibility was boosted across the greater Memphis metro. MWN, as it came to be called, continued a steady growth phase and the site itself grew as well, adding more pages and features. The framework of the main website and its mobile counterpart, however, did not change.

Upcoming changes

It has been 17 years since the last major refresh of the site as we sit at a bit of a crossroads. Mobile app development costs have increased significantly. Routine app updates are basically required to meet store specifications and remain compatible with device improvements and new features. However, the majority of us are using our phones for just about everything, so being "mobile friendly" remains vital. The main MWN website was built for full screen viewers (desktops/laptops), while the mobile site has remained fairly basic. Given a need for a flexible web presence, and also our desire to continue to invest in app development for StormWatch+ to serve a national audience, we made the choice to rebuild the MWN web experience to reach users with an array of content accessible on all platforms, while bidding farewell to the legacy MWN app. (More on that in a minute.)

MWN in 2024

The all-new "2024 version" of MemphisWeather.net (preview below) is very close to being released! So what can you expect from the new MWN?

A completely new and modernized web layout, with distinct mobile and full-screen experiences, built on a single platform for ease of maintenance and upkeep.
A seamless integration of the MWN Blog, as the site is built on WordPress and all previous blog posts will be migrated to the new site.
All of the content you have come to expect from MWN, plus an expanded offering of products for the mobile user!
Opt-in "push notification" style messaging to keep you updated - on new content, approaching severe weather, or even maintenance events - in a proactive fashion.
New technology that allows you to drop MWN onto your phone's home screen, launching and interacting with it just like a mobile app, without requiring us to spend big bucks to develop standalone mobile apps. A win-win!

MWN mobile app being sunset

Returning to the legacy MWN mobile app, we are aware that it has fallen into a bit of disrepair of late, but unless we completely rebuild it to the latest requirements of the app stores, we were unable to just fix the little things. Therefore, with the release of the new website, the current MWN app will be removed from the app stores and no longer supported. (We'll provide easy steps to create the "app experience" you are used to with the new site, so stay tuned!)

Unfortunately, this change also means that the push notification-based severe weather alerts in the MWN app (StormWatch+ Alerts) will also no longer be available at some point in the near future. We know that a LOT of you rely on these alerts from the MWN app. Not to worry! We will be providing information on transitioning to our recently rebuilt StormWatch+ app with nationwide severe weather alerting, which offers enhanced features as compared to MWN alerts. More on this in the near future as well!

Thank you!

We're grateful for the thousands of you who are longtime MWN "fans," and appreciate the trust you place in MWN for your local weather needs! We'll work with you through the transition to ensure that your overall MWN experience is a positive one! Further information on the new site, how to consume the information from it, and transitioning to the StormWatch+ app for alerts, will be communicated through social media, on our site and in this blog. Thank you for your continued support in the weeks, months, and years ahead!

Erik Proseus & Richard Hoseney
Co-Owners/Meteorologists
Cirrus Weather Solutions, LLC
MemphisWeather.net and StormWatch+


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Severe weather season delivers a couple thunderstorm chances this week

2024-04-14T15:44:00.006-05:00

We've made it into the heart of spring, which means we're also into spring severe weather season, which continues for the next month to six weeks. High temperatures in the 80+ range are 5-7 degrees above normal, so with a couple of frontal systems moving through this week, we'll need to keep an eye on the threat for strong storms.

Tuesday

The first of those threats, and the one with the highest potential, arrives Tuesday evening. Ahead of the front, breezy south wind and an approaching upper level trough will bring high moisture levels into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. As the front approaches, thunderstorms are likely to erupt to our west and move east, reaching the area late afternoon to evening.

The European model predicts atmospheric moisture content over the area to be near 200% of normal on Tuesday evening, more than enough to support strong to severe storms and locally heavy rain. (WeatherBell)

Strong wind at the surface (expect gusts as high as 40 mph Tuesday) and aloft, along with available storm fuel created by temperatures near 80 and dewpoints in the mid 60s, should allow the storms to be strong to severe, especially in areas near and west of the river, including the metro. For now, a Level 2 (Slight) risk of severe weather is forecast for this area, but will probably be tweaked a bit in the next 48 hours. The primary threat will be damaging wind, but a couple of tornadoes can't be ruled out. The threat should end before midnight as it currently stands. Stay in touch the next couple days.

Thursday

Looking beyond Tuesday night's front, the atmosphere won't cool off much and moisture levels return to high levels by Thursday as the next front heads our way. The severe threat appears lower with this front, despite it being more potent in terms of trailing cool air, as there will not be the dynamics created by strong low pressure accompanying it. It's still several days out, so we'll keep an eye on it for any changes. Behind that front, much cooler air arrives for next weekend, with the potential for additional showers, as highs drop back to the 60s for a few days.

The European model simulated infrared satellite imagery shows the potential for a line of thunderstorms along a cold front on Thursday evening. (WeatherBell)

Erik Proseus

MWN Meteorologist

----
Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

March 2024 Climate Report for Memphis, TN

2024-04-09T12:36:00.000-05:00

March Climate Recap

The month of March was warmer than normal by almost three degrees. High temperatures ranged from the 50's to the low 80's, while lows ranged from 29 to the low 60's. Overall, only 11 days during the month saw an average temperature below normal (as low as 13 degrees below normal), while some days were as much as 20 degrees above normal.

Departure from normal temperatures for March for the Lower 48 states

Precipitation was nearly an inch below normal for the month. The wettest period was between the 14th-15th at 2.12" at the airport, while MWN headquarters in Bartlett saw 1.49" during that time. Totals for the month ended up at 4.90" at the airport and 3.79" in Bartlett.

As far as lingering drought goes, there was continued improvement across the area. Much of the portion of the Memphis metro in west Tennessee is now out of drought status, while northwest Mississippi continues in a abnormally dry to moderate drought, but has also seen improvement in the past month.

Drought conditions as of April 2, 2024 (UNL)

Change in drought conditions over 4 weeks as of April 2, 2024 (UNL)

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature

Average temperature: 57.0 degrees (2.8 degrees above average)

Average high temperature: 66.7 degrees (2.5 degrees above average)

Average low temperature: 47.3 degrees (3.0 degrees above average)

Warmest temperature: 81 degrees (4th)

Coolest temperature: 29 degrees (19th)

Heating Degrees Days: 260 (92 below average)

Cooling Degree Days: 19 (1 above average)

Records set or tied: Record high tied (81° on the 4th)

Comments: None

Precipitation

Monthly total: 4.90" (0.84" below average)

Days with measurable precipitation: 9 (2.5 days below average)

Wettest 24-hour period: 2.11" (14th-15th)

Snowfall: None (0.5" below average)

Records set or tied: None

Comments: None

Miscellaneous

Peak wind: Southeast/55 mph (25th)

Average wind: 8.2 mph

Average relative humidity: 65%

Average sky cover: 56%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

MemphisWeather.net Headquarters, Bartlett, TN

Temperature

Average temperature: 57.0 degrees

Average high temperature: 68.3 degrees

Average low temperature: 45.6 degrees

Warmest temperature: 83.0 degrees (4th)

Coolest temperature: 27.4 degrees (19th)

Comments: None

Precipitation

Monthly total: 3.66" (automated rain gauge), 3.78" (CoCoRaHS rain gauge)

Days with measurable precipitation: 7

Wettest date: 1.72" (25th) (via automated gauge)

Snowfall: None

Comments: None

Miscellaneous

Peak wind: South/34 mph (25th)

Average relative humidity: 67%

Average barometric pressure: 30.01 in.

Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

Average temperature error: 2.06 degrees

Forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 71%

Average dewpoint error: 2.21 degrees

Forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 69%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Eclipse, severe storms, and heavy rain - oh my!

2024-04-06T13:58:00.000-05:00

Next week will be a busy week to be a meteorologist! Let's set expectations as we head into it...

Saturday

The cooler weather of the past few days is relenting as high pressure shifts east and a southerly flow of air moves over the region. Temperatures will moderate today, especially once morning high clouds depart, allowing for highs in the upper 60s. A perfect day to begin your outdoor planting, as it appears the frost potential is probably over for the spring.

Sunday

A weak front moves into the area Sunday night. Ahead of it, south wind will become gusty, reaching 30 mph in the afternoon, and temperatures will reach the mid 70s as clouds also increase. We'll see scattered showers and a few t'storms, mainly in the afternoon and evening. A couple of these storms could get a little feisty from late afternoon until just after sunset, so the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked the area for a Marginal Risk of a severe storm. That's just a level 1 on the 5-point scale, so no widespread problems are affected, but isolated storms could have some hail or gusty wind, and a brief tornado can't be completely ruled out due to the wind shear in place. All of this comes to an end by 9-10pm.

Eclipse Day!

We've been watching this closely every day for the past week and are finally getting into a window of time where our high-resolution models are seeing the early afternoon hours Monday, offering more guidance on the forecast. I am fairly confident that morning low clouds will occur as the Sunday night front washes out over us. I'm also confident that conditions will remain dry through the afternoon.

Confidence dips a bit as we look at lingering clouds Monday afternoon when the eclipse occurs. Morning clouds should be breaking up by noon, but to what extent remains to be seen. The most likely scenario is that they will mostly clear during the afternoon, but timing is a bit uncertain. Also, high thin cirrus clouds will be arriving in the afternoon. These will have less effect on eclipse viewing. Like a 5-year-old lying about whether he broke your favorite vase, you should be able to see right through those. All that said, I think there is a good chance the eclipse will be visible at times during the nearly 3-hour event. At maximum eclipse around 2pm? Here's hoping we all get a glimpse!

Forecast cloud cover at the time of the eclipse on Monday afternoon, courtesy NWS-Memphis

For those heading west, in general, a similar forecast for the I-40 corridor in Arkansas. There is probably a better chance of decent viewing conditions north of I-40 than south of it due to those lower clouds. However, for the experience of totality that simply cannot be matched in a 97% coverage area like Memphis, it's worth the trip in my book, and I'm taking the opportunity!

We'll start to see those clouds to our south pull further north as the afternoon and evening progress, both here and in Arkansas, as a very wet pattern starts to set up. Monday night could see the first of several rounds of showers and thunderstorms as a warm front moves north. A few of those storms could contain marginally severe hail and some wind gusts overnight.

Tuesday-Thursday

We're expecting what may be more wet hours than dry for a couple of days mid-week, with bouts of thunderstorms embedded in rain. Some of those could be strong, especially Wednesday to Wednesday night, though more likely in north MS and southern AR than west TN. With repeated rounds of rainfall, multiple inches of pollen-cleansing rain are in order! We'll hope the severe stuff stays away, but you'll want to stay in touch for further updates as overnight storms are a possibility.

By Thursday, low pressure responsible for all the rain will be moving through the Mid-South, tapering the stormy weather off to showers. By Friday, rain should be done and the drying process can commence as we head into the middle weekend of April. Overall, temperatures throughout the mid- to late-week period will be mild as high temperatures will be within a few degrees of 70 and lows will fall only into the 50s and 60s.

Here's to amazing eclipse viewing conditions and sturdy umbrellas next week!


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Early look at potential weather trends for the eclipse

2024-03-28T16:41:00.002-05:00

The BACKGROUND

If you are a longtime follower of this site/blog and our content in general, you know I'm not real keen on looking beyond a week out in our forecast, especially when details unresolvable several days out could end up producing wild swings in the resulting weather. For instance: pinpoint temperatures that could mean the difference between rain, snow, or ice. Or temperatures, dewpoints, magnitude of the wind, and cloud cover that could mean the difference between severe storms and rain showers. All of these details can make a big difference in forecasts beyond 3-4 days, let alone a week.

However, trends in the overall meteorological pattern are a little different. While specific timing or forecast details may not be discernible, a colder/warmer or wetter/drier pattern CAN be discerned out to a week or more. So I may not be able to say WHEN on day 6 or 7 an upper level trough will drive a cold front through the Mid-South. But I could say if there is some overall model agreement on the pattern and can probably tell you that we'll see a cool-down, or a wetter than average pattern, a week or more out.

All that said, we have a MAJOR astronomical event occurring about 10 days from now that I know you are all aware of, and many of you (like me) are greatly anticipating! A total eclipse, like that which that will cross the state of Arkansas and block out 97% of the sun here in Memphis for a couple of minutes on April 8, will not occur again for another 21 years. And far be it from me to withhold information for such an event once we start to creep into the "forecast-able period" of said event.

The DISCLAIMER

Information presented here, on March 28, is provided as a very early look at the possibilities, or trends, and includes NO guarantees. Do not change any plans you have based upon information presented. Do not tell me on April 9 how good/bad my "forecast" was on March 28 (believe me, I will be well aware!). Do not sue me. Do not TP my house. And do not call me or my family bad names. This is NOT a forecast - it is general "trend" information. It is presented vaguely on purpose, because anyone who will tell you on March 28 exactly what will happen at 2pm on April 8 is lying. I present the trends, because there is agreement amongst our various computer model sources on those trends - but certainly not the details. Moving on...

The OUTLOOK

To get to April 8, we start with the general trends leading up to it.

The next several days will be influenced by building high pressure aloft and surface high pressure sliding to our east. That means dry weather and warming temperatures with increasing southerly breezes. That trend continues through the weekend. By early next week, models are in concurrence that low pressure will form in the Plains and move by to our north on Monday/Tuesday with an upper level trough advancing from the southwest U.S. This will lead to a generally wet and possibly stormy pattern to start next week. (Without diving into too many details, because we're 4-5 days out, the most likely severe weather threat appears to be to our west and north Monday and then to our southeast Tuesday.)

Behind that system, high pressure builds back in for the latter half of next week and into the weekend. Then (are you sensing a pattern?), by the weekend of April 6-7, long-range models generally concur on upper level troughing (low pressure) forming in the Plains again. With surface high pressure to our east, southerly flow sets up over the Mid-South by the 8th. This pattern typically results in building cloud cover and increasing rain chances. BOOOOO!!!!! 👎

Comparisons of the mid and surface level pattern on April 8 from the European and GFS (American) ensembles show fairly remarkable agreement on the overall pattern for an 11-day forecast. (WeatherBell)

Below, I have placed graphs from three of the major global model ensembles - the European, American (GFS), and Canadian. Ensembles basically are iterations of the model, run many times with slightly different parameters and schemes, to provide a range of potential outcomes. They are the BEST way to look at long-range trends. The models themselves can change multiple times a day. An ensemble effectively averages out all of those different possibilities. The averages, or oftentimes probabilities, of a particular scenario give us a much better idea of the range of possible outcomes than a single model does.

I've chosen to show precipitation in 6-hour increments, since if the model shows rain falling, that would also mean some amount of cloud cover - which ultimately is the forecast element we most care about for an eclipse! Each of the three model ensembles are shown below. Each ensemble is run four times a day, and those "runs" are stacked horizontally (oldest on top, most recent at the bottom) with time going out into the future from left to right and precipitation amounts shown in dark grey to green boxes for each 6-hour time increment.

On each graph, I have boxed April 8 in red. There is one thing that stands out to me immediately when looking inside those red boxes (and either side of the box to see what might happen before and after the 8th). Each model ensemble, and each of the previous several times that ensemble has run (going back at least a few days), shows precipitation occurring on April 8 in Memphis. Essentially, what is shown is the culmination of hundreds of runs of the three models over the past 3-5 days. And each of those averages has rain falling in Memphis on April 8.

The RECAP

Now, before we break all the guidelines and disclaimers mentioned above and cancel all our plans, it is still many days before the eclipse happens. A "pattern" is NOT a "forecast!" There is not enough detail in this outlook to make any rash decisions. All we really need is partly cloudy skies for a few minutes on April 8 (preferably around 2pm) to see a pretty amazing astronomical spectacle. I'll continue to watch the trends, and as we get within a week, our daily forecast found on our website or app will reflect the latest information.

A final p.s.: For those that spent a bunch of money on a place to stay in Arkansas to see totality... I looked at this same data for Little Rock and there was almost no difference. They are in the same pattern we are according to the data. It is also too far out to define the details that could make a difference between here and there. Keep those reservations (I am!) and go chase the eclipse! If the sun doesn't shine, hopefully you still have had a nice day or two away from the daily grind.


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

2024 Total Solar Eclipse Details

2024-03-09T12:26:00.001-06:00

Many of you recall the total solar eclipse of August 21, 2017 that passed directly over Nashville and provided the Memphis area with a view of 93% obscuration of the sun. In fact, some of you might still have your eclipse glasses from that event, hanging on to them in anticipation of the next total eclipse 7 years later! Well, that time is drawing closer, as we're under a month from the 2024 Total Eclipse!

We've assembled some resources and put them here to guide you through observing the 2024 eclipse safely and enjoyably! Like its 2017 counterpart, the "total" portion of the 2024 eclipse will just miss Memphis once again, but we'll still be close enough to it to see 97% of the sun blacked out during the early afternoon hours. A short drive to the north or west an hour or two will put you squarely in the path of totality... and it will be worth it!

Memphis-area viewing details

If you are staying local, here are the stats you need to know about this year's eclipse.

Beginning of the partial eclipse: 12:37pm

Maximum obscuration / time: 97.4% at 1:57pm

End of the partial eclipse: 3:17pm

Weather forecast: Too early - check back around April 1!

Here is a simulation of how the eclipse will look from Memphis:

Regional viewing opportunities

If you are looking to take a road trip, here are some regional locations that will experience a total eclipse. Totality occurs around 2:00pm (plus or minus 15 minutes) at all locations:

Jonesboro, AR: 1 hour drive; 2 min 23 sec totality

Little Rock, AR: 2 hour drive; 2 min 27 sec totality

Conway, AR: 2 hour and 20 minute drive; 3 min 52 sec totality

Hot Springs, AR: 2 hour and 45 minute drive; 3 min 36 sec totality (1 of 2 national parks to experience totality)

Cape Girardeau, MO: 2 and a half hour drive; 4 min 5 sec totality

Cairo, IL: 2 and a half hour drive; 3 min 7 sec totality

Viewing tips

The most important advice for viewing of an eclipse is to NEVER look directly at the sun without specialized glasses or a specially designed lens for solar viewing. Looking directly at the sun for any length of time can cause permanent eye damage. There is only one short period of time when it is safe to remove the glasses for viewing, and that is during the period of totality - the couple minutes when the sun is completely obscured by the moon's shadow. You will know the eclipse is total because you will not be able to see ANY portion of the sun through eclipse glasses. And as soon as a sliver of the sun re-appears, it is time to put the glasses back on.

Always use glasses or solar viewers that comply with the ISO 12312-2 international standard, which are thousands of times darker than standard sunglasses. Be sure to closely monitor children for proper use of glasses as well. In addition, do not use eclipse glasses or viewers with cameras, binoculars, or telescopes, which require different types of solar filters. And of course, do not use those devices without any supplemental eye protection either! Here is a good source for more information.

Fun fact! Did you know that the largest manufacturer of 3D and eclipse glasses in the world is based in Bartlett, TN? Tens of millions of pairs of eclipse glasses, in a wide variety of designs, are created and manufactured at American Paper Optics. There is a good chance that your eclipse glasses were made right here in the Memphis metro! You can even buy directly from them here (this is not an affiliate link; we make nothing on purchases made).

Driving tips

Pack your patience and fill your gas tank! Thousands of sightseers will be flocking to the path of totality, likely clogging road networks in and out of the path. This is especially true on the morning of the eclipse (Monday, April 8) and especially right after totality is complete, as everyone returns home.

My suggestion? Make a long weekend out of it! (But book your accommodations now. Many hotels in the path are already full.) Travel to (or near) the spot where you want to be on Saturday or Sunday, and delay returning home until Monday night or, even better, Tuesday morning. This is a rare event and the difference between totality and "almost" is literally like night and day, so many people will be taking advantage of a short drive to be in a spot where full obscuration occurs. Expect drive times to be MUCH longer than typical for Monday travelers, even on interstates.

The All-Important Weather Forecast!

While we can't provide an actual forecast this far in advance, the scientists at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) have created an interactive map that uses historical weather data to determine the "viewability" for spots across the United States. For Memphis, the following are the historical sky conditions for April 8th at 2pm:

Clear/Mostly Clear - 31.9%

Partly Cloudy - 14.2%

Mostly Cloudy/Overcast - 53.9%

So it looks like there s a slightly less than 50% chance that conditions will allow for decent viewing. It doesn't take a perfectly clear sky to get a good view of the eclipse - just not a poorly-placed cloud! And as noted above, the eclipse covers a 2 hour and 40 minute time period, so hopefully we'll get to observe at least part of it, and maybe we'll get a perfectly sunny day! (For those traveling west to view totality, the historical chance of mostly cloudy to cloudy skies is very similar to Memphis.)

When is the next total solar eclipse?

You'll have to go to Alaska to see the next total eclipse in the U.S., and that is in 2033. After that, the next one will be in 2044, but again, you'll have to head north - to North Dakota or Montana! The next total eclipse visible to a large population will be August 2045 (21 years from now!) as the path of totality crosses the southern U.S. from Florida to California. So don't miss this one!

Additional Resources

NASA Science Eclipse 2024

NASA Scientific Visualization Studio

NOAA/NCEI Cloudiness Data

Great American Eclipse - comprehensive resource

Eclipse2024.org - another excellent website


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

February 2024 Climate Report for Memphis, TN

2024-03-08T14:25:00.000-06:00

February Climate Recap

The month of February was warmer than normal by over six degrees, ranking it the sixth warmest February on record. High temperatures ranged from the 50's to the upper 70's, while lows ranged from near 30 to the mid 60's. Overall, only six days during the month saw an average temperature below normal.

Departure from normal temperatures for February for the Lower 48 states

Precipitation was slightly below normal for the month, with our wettest day coming on the 10th at 1.64", followed closely by 1.27" on the 4th. In total, both the airport and MWN headquarters in Bartlett saw 3.82". A trace of snow fell on the 12th at both stations as well.

As far as lingering drought goes, there was continued improvement across the area. Much of the portion of the Memphis metro in west Tennessee is now out of drought status (or nearly so), while northwest Mississippi continues in a moderate to severe drought, but has also improved in the past month.

Drought conditions as of March 5, 2024

Change in drought conditions over 4 weeks as of March 5, 2024

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature

Average temperature: 52.4 degrees (6.3 degrees above average)

Average high temperature: 62.8 degrees (7.3 degrees above average)

Average low temperature: 42.0 degrees (5.3 degrees above average)

Warmest temperature: 78 degrees (27th)

Coolest temperature: 25 degrees (18th)

Heating Degrees Days: 363 (169 below average)

Cooling Degree Days: 7 (5 above average)

Records set or tied: Record high minimum of 65 on the 27th, breaking the old record of 62 from 1955.

Comments: This month was the 6th warmest February on record.

Precipitation

Monthly total: 3.82" (0.73" below average)

Days with measurable precipitation: 9 (0.9 days below average)

Wettest 24-hour period: 1.64" (10th)

Snowfall: Trace (1.0" below average)

Records set or tied: None

Comments: None

Miscellaneous

Peak wind: South/48 mph (27th)

Average wind: 9.6 mph

Average relative humidity: 64%

Average sky cover: 54%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

MemphisWeather.net Headquarters, Bartlett, TN

Temperature

Average temperature: 51.4 degrees

Average high temperature: 63.5 degrees

Average low temperature: 39.6 degrees

Warmest temperature: 78.9 degrees (27th)

Coolest temperature: 19.7 degrees (18th)

Comments: None

Precipitation

Monthly total: 3.82" (automated rain gauge), 3.90" (CoCoRaHS rain gauge)

Days with measurable precipitation: 9

Wettest date: 1.46" (4th) (via automated gauge)

Snowfall: Trace

Comments: None

Miscellaneous

Peak wind: South/30 mph (27th)

Average relative humidity: 69%

Average barometric pressure: 30.02 in.

Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

Average temperature error: 2.16 degrees

Forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 70%

Average dewpoint error: 2.80 degrees

Forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 56%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

A spring-like week ahead with some unsettled weather

2024-03-03T14:16:00.004-06:00

It's only the beginning of March and we already have a rainy week ahead of us!

The end of February brought along a well-pronounced taste of spring, and that will persist into the upcoming work week. Mild to warm temperatures and chances of rain will mostly be the memo for this week as low-pressure systems and fronts advance over the coming days. While severe threats will overall be limited for most of us, we're still likely to see a few t'storms this week.

A somewhat unstable Monday night and Tuesday

After this past warming weekend, we'll be greeted with an active beginning to the work week. Increasing cloud cover with the presence of an unstable airmass on Monday might lead to a few daytime showers with warm highs in the mid to upper 70s. Instability, or what storms use as fuel, looks to increase in the overnight hours on Monday ahead of a cold front, though the environment will be fairly limited in severe weather ingredients in the metro compared to Arkansas, as seen in the NWS graphic below.

Per the NWS, the low severe threat for Monday night will be mostly confined to areas west of the river, but the metro could still see sub-severe t'storms.

The limited severe threats will be hail and strong winds for those in AR. For most of us in the metro, we likely will not be seeing those threats on Monday night. Early Tuesday may be a little different, as the distribution of warmer temperatures and moisture could be conducive to some hail during the morning hours. Note that, at this time, hail remains only a small possibility for early Tuesday -- we'll have more info on the threat environment closer to then. For now, expect showers and t'storms on Monday night to persist into at least the morning hours on Tuesday as the cold front passes.

Slight rain chances for the midweek

With the passing cold front on Tuesday, temps will slightly drop into the 60s during the midweek on Wednesday and Thursday. Partly sunny skies with a few light showers appear to be the case for Wednesday and Thursday, as moisture levels will be just high enough to support the development of a few showers on both days.

This weather map valid at 6am on Thursday depicts the chance for a few showers that morning (NWS/WPC).

A few showers will likely be during the afternoon hours on Wednesday, while Thursday's showers will mainly be in the morning, though timing will likely be adjusted as the week progresses. Unfortunately, rain chances will not be dropping even after the early-week system; during the mid-week, a mid-level disturbance will be building across the central U.S. and advance towards our area between Thursday and Friday, which will lead to an unsettled, possibly stormy end to the week.

Similar to early in the week, the end of the week could be stormy

The mid-level disturbance will likely destabilize the environment enough on Friday to produce showers and a few t'storms, though it seems weak wind profiles and a lack of severe weather ingredients will lower the potency of any storms that form on Friday. Most storm activity should be confined to areas south of us, but we'll likely see showers and a few storms at the very least.

Another weather map (valid at 6am Friday) shows increased rain chances for Friday (NWS/WPC).

Besides that, temperatures will steadily decrease at the end of the week, with forecasted highs in the mid-60s for Friday and lower 60s for Saturday. Another cold front passes through on Saturday, too, leading to a few early showers and cooler temperatures arriving.

Per the European model, a cold front passes through late afternoon on Saturday (temp. change gif valid from 1pm to 6pm on Saturday). Temps will be quickly dropping after the front passes (WeatherBell).

Beyond this upcoming week, next week likely will see some more rainy activity for much of the U.S. based on long-range outlooks (shown below). Outlooks also show a seasonably average week for temperatures in the metro, with varying probabilities elsewhere. You may need an umbrella if you have spring break plans around the country!

The precipitation probability outlook shows a likelihood for above-normal rain amounts across much of the U.S. next week, while the temperature outlook shows near average temps for the southeast. (NWS/CPC)

Lei Naidoo

MWN Intern


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Spring is arriving! Is severe weather far behind?

2024-02-25T15:14:00.000-06:00

Leave it to Mr. Groundhog to get one right once in a while, despite the long-term track record. (A broken clock is still right twice a day!)

The month of February has, despite a couple a short-lived cold spells, been much warmer than average overall. Through Saturday, only five days this month have been colder than average. With highs in the 70s the next few days, there is a strong possibility that this month ends in the top 10 warmest Februarys on record, after last year also finished top 10 warmest.

Warmest Januarys on record. 2024 is 12th on the list with 5 days remaining in the month. (xmACIS)

Accompanying the 70s will be strong southerly wind that has gusted to 30+ mph today and could reach 40 mph by Tuesday ahead of the next cold front that will approach the area Tuesday night. Until then, mainly dry and very warm conditions are expected to start the work week with a mix of sun and clouds. One potential rain chance will be late Monday night, likely gone by sunrise Tuesday, as a surge of moisture moves into the region. A stray thunderstorm is possible early Tuesday. Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week. With a bit of sunshine, highs could soar into the upper 70s (the record for the day is 80).

Probability of 40 mph wind gusts on Tuesday. (NWS)

We've been watching this coming Wednesday the past few days for the potential for severe weather. On Thursday, a day 7 severe weather risk included Memphis for this coming Wednesday. Since then, models have started to back off the severe potential a bit.

The severe weather outlook for Tuesday and Tuesday night shows the best chance of severe weather north of the area. At this time, no severe weather area is outlined Wednesday. (NWS/SPC)

It now appears that the cold front will arrive around sunrise Wednesday morning with the low pressure dragging it through well north of the region in the Midwest.

The forecast weather map valid at 6am Wednesday shows a strong cold front on our doorstep. (NWS/WPC)

This scenario results in much less instability (storm fuel) due to the front arriving during the coolest part of the day, and also less lift and cold air aloft associated with low pressure that will miss the region by hundreds of miles. The one factor to still watch is wind energy, as wind will be strong from the surface into the upper atmosphere. Even a defined line of showers and some thunder could bring strong wind gusts. Continue to monitor our social media feeds this week for the latest!

The European model forecast temperatures at 6am Wednesday. Expect a "backwards" temperature day with highs at sunrise and north wind blowing cold air into the 40s by afternoon! (WeatherBell)

Once the front clears the area and rain chances drop off by midday Wednesday, temperatures also plummet Wednesday afternoon, likely falling into the 40s after starting the day in the 60s. Mostly dry weather is expected for the last day of the month on Thursday with the sixth day of below average temperatures possible. Moderating temperatures are expected as we head into early March to end the week with low rain chances that are hard to define at this point.

Looking beyond that, early March appears to favor the continuation of above average temperatures, along with wetter than average conditions, as shown below (March 4-10 temperature and precipitation outlooks).

Erik Proseus


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Recap of this past weekend and a look at a warmer week ahead

2024-02-18T15:32:00.000-06:00

Good Sunday evening!

Hope you are holding out well after Friday's cold front, which ushered in another taste of winter before we transition into warmer temperatures this week. In this blog, we'll be recapping this past interesting weekend and then summarize what to expect for the upcoming week (spoiler: a nice, warmer trend is in store this week, with only one rainy day!).

Winter returned this weekend

On Friday, a strong cold front made its way into the Mid-South, destabilizing the air and bringing a few showers and thunderstorms to the Memphis metro late Friday afternoon and evening. Severe t'storms were warned in different places across the Mid-South, but, luckily, the metro did not have much to worry about on Friday, as storms remained below severe thresholds. Mainly, strong gusts and locally heavy rain were the primary impacts on Friday for the metro.

(Radar loop at 5:45pm on Friday, 2/16) Showers and t'storms, moving along with the passing cold front, livened up Friday evening.

Not every place received a lot of rainfall, as evidenced by the airport and MWN stations recording less than 0.03" of rainfall each. The heaviest rainfall in the metro occurred over north MS, due to the the front finding additional atmospheric moisture and instability. Everyone, though, immediately felt the effects of the strong cold front -- temps rapidly declined into the upper 30s by Friday night. The upper 30s happened to be the highs for Saturday as well, making it the coldest day of the month to this point! A brisk wind didn't help matters, either.

The 24-hr temperature change map valid at 1:30pm Saturday, 2/17, showcases just how drastic the temperature difference was between Friday and Saturday afternoons. About 30° colder! (WeatherBell)

Today, at the very least, has had highs about 10 degrees warmer than Saturday's. The sunshine helped too, but highs were still below what is expected for late winter. All in all, the front certainly brought a temporary return to winter temperatures. Thankfully, we expect Saturday to be the coldest day of the month, since we'll be trending warmer this upcoming week, a trend that looks to continue into the last week of the month as well.

A mostly dry and warm week ahead

In contrast to this past weekend, this week will be characterized by warmer weather and dry conditions. The main exception to dry weather will be Thursday, which will be outlined shortly. Prominent high-pressure defines Sunday and most of the early week; due to the system, dry weather persists tonight and through Wednesday.

High pressure over the south will be influencing the early week weather, bringing warmer and drier conditions. (NWS/WPC)

Highs return to near-normal levels on Monday (upper 50s), while Tuesday and Wednesday will continue warming up into the 60s. We still keep highs in the 60s on Thursday, but a well-defined low-pressure system leads to unsettled air that day. Scattered showers and a t'storm or two are likely during the Thursday daytime hours and into the early night. Timing is likely to be adjusted as the week progresses.

A low-pressure system will make its way across the central U.S., leading to increased chances for rainfall on Thursday. (NWS/WPC)

A calmer weekend (finally!)

Remember the last time we had a normal and dry weekend? It has been a while, but, thankfully, we can look forward to a calmer upcoming weekend. Models suggest clearer skies and dry conditions for the weekend, as highs trend toward the average mid-50s for most of the weekend after Thursday's system passes. We'll be looking forward to the upcoming weekend, but until then, check back for updated forecasts, and thanks for reading!

Per the Euro model, Friday's highs are trending to be in the mid-50s for the metro. (WxBell)

Lei Naidoo

MWN Intern


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

January 2024 Climate Report for Memphis, TN

2024-02-04T17:12:00.000-06:00

January Climate Recap

The month of January was colder than normal as a whole due to widespread snow cover around mid-month. The year started out with high temperatures in the mid to upper 40's, climbing to the low 50's by the 7th and to the 60's on the 11th. It all went downhill afterwards, with snow moving in on the 14th. The resulting snowpack caused temperatures to fall drastically, with highs in the teens and lows in the single digits. Record cold low temperatures were set on the 15th and 16th, breaking records from 1888 and 1927 respectively. Highs rose back above freezing on the 17th & 18th before falling back below freezing for a couple more days. A rapid warm-up resulted in temperatures back in the low 60s by the 24th for a couple of days. A bit of a cool-down followed a cold front on the 26th before highs reached back into the 60s by the end of the month. In sum, 20 of the 31 days in January featured temperatures that were at or below average and only three times since the year 2000 has January been colder.

Departure from normal temperatures for January for the Lower 48 states

Above normal precipitation was recorded for the month with the wettest 24-hour period starting on the 8th, when over 1.75" of rain fell. Of course, the mid-month snowfall was the biggest story, with the entire metro receiving multiple inches of snow from a storm on the 14th-15th. Memphis International Airport officially recorded 3.4", while at MWN Headquarters in Bartlett 5.6" fell. The snowpack lingered for several days, finally disappearing by the 22nd when rain melted and washed away what remained. The rain continued until the 27th, with over 3" falling. Over one inch of rain on both the 23rd and 27th. Dry conditions finally moved back in to finish out the month. For more on the snow event, see our winter storm wrap-up post.

Estimated snowfall accumulation across the Mid-South on January 14-15, 2024 (NWS Memphis)

As far as the drought goes, there was improvement across the metro thanks to a wet month and snowpack for several days. Portions of Northwest Mississippi were still in exceptional drought conditions, while Shelby County improved to moderate drought conditions. Below images show the conditions as of January 30th and December 26th.

Drought conditions as of January 30, 2024

Drought conditions as of December 26, 2023

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature

Average temperature: 37.6 degrees (4.5 degrees below average)

Average high temperature: 45.7 degrees (5.4 degrees below average)

Average low temperature: 29.5 degrees (3.8 degrees below average)

Warmest temperature: 66 degrees (11th)

Coolest temperature: 2 degrees (17th)

Heating Degrees Days: 841 (131 above average)

Cooling Degree Days: 0 (1 below average)

Records set or tied: Record low maximum of 14 degrees (15th), record low maximum of 16 degrees (16th)

Comments: None

Precipitation

Monthly total: 6.63" (2.49" above average)

Days with measurable precipitation: 14 (4 days above average)

Wettest 24-hour period: 1.76" (8th-9th)

Snowfall: 3.4" (2.2" above average)

Records set or tied: Record daily snowfall of 1.8 inches (14th)

Comments: None

Miscellaneous

Peak wind: Southwest/49 mph (9th)

Average wind: 8.2 mph

Average relative humidity: 72%

Average sky cover: 60%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

MemphisWeather.net Headquarters, Bartlett, TN

Temperature

Average temperature: 36.2 degrees

Average high temperature: 44.5 degrees

Average low temperature: 27.0 degrees

Warmest temperature: 64.5 degrees (30th)

Coolest temperature: -1.2 degrees (17th)

Comments: None

Precipitation

Monthly total: 7.45" (automated rain gauge), 7.53" (CoCoRaHS rain gauge)

Days with measurable precipitation: 12

Wettest date: 1.72" (8th) (via automated gauge)

Snowfall: 5.6" (4.3" on 15th, 1.3" on 16th)

Comments: Snow depth of 5.5" measured on 16th, 3" still remaining on 20th

Miscellaneous

Peak wind: Southeast/36 mph (12th)

Average relative humidity: 78%

Average barometric pressure: 30.14 in.

Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

Average temperature error: 2.24 degrees

Forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 64%

Average dewpoint error: 2.20 degrees

Forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 67%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

A rainy Sunday, then a dry pattern before active weather returns late week

2024-02-04T13:55:00.003-06:00

Happy wet Sunday!

Last week proved to be a nice change of pace with average to above normal temperatures and drier weather, which was especially welcome after the mid-to-late active January weeks! The beginning of this week appears to be a similar, calmer story despite what last night and today would suggest. A frontal boundary will move out of the area overnight to make way for a dry early start to the week. Prominent ridging will define the calmer weather for the beginning of the week before an advancing cold front later this week brings returning rain chances.

Concluding a rainy Sunday

Since last night, an inch to inch and a half of rain has fallen, which brought more relief to the drought situation that the metro is currently under. Another quarter inch or so is possible today. The aforementioned frontal boundary moves out overnight, dropping rain chances in time for the start of the work week. We'll see light rain showers eventually become more scattered in coverage this evening before both cloud cover and rain chances decrease overnight.

Rain chances decrease for most of the metro overnight on Sunday as a stalled frontal boundary moves out. Surface weather map valid at midnight tonight. (NWS/WPC)

Drier weather for the early week

By sunrise on Monday, we'll be dry and ready for work! And it will be a seasonably mild, mostly sunny work day at that. A shifting ridge will usher in calmer and drier weather for Monday, with highs trending just a bit warmer than Sunday at the mid-50s. Similar weather is expected on Tuesday thanks to the ridge as highs remain in the mid-50s, though skies will be nice and sunny along a north wind. If you prefer warmer highs than that, gradual warming is expected for Wednesday as highs reach the lower 60s. High clouds move in along a south wind on Wednesday, as well. Still, despite the highs, morning lows each day for the early week will certainly feel winter-like as we'll start each day in the 30s and 40s. Regardless, the high pressure ridge will bring a few nice and pleasant days for the beginning half of the week!

It won't be spring just yet, though!

Rain returns in the late week

A more active latter half of the week is shaping up as a broad surface trough brings in moisture and faster winds. Highs will be pleasant (in the 60s) for Thursday and Friday, but rain chances will be increasing as moisture increases late Thursday. Clouds thicken on Thursday ahead of a cold front, which will lead to some showers Thursday evening before becoming widespread early on Friday.

On Friday morning, showers ahead of a cold front will lead to a wet early day. (NWS/WPC)

As of now, it appears that these showers may last through midday on Friday, but there is still some uncertainty with that. It hinges on the cold front's speed, which seems that it may slow down and stall over the river into Saturday morning and lead to a few showers that morning as well. Early signs also point to that front finally getting pushed out late in the weekend with rain appearing likely on Sunday. In any case, expect an unsettled end of the week and weekend! As forecasts and models are updated, we'll have more info on this system as the week progresses. Totals look to be 1.5 to 2" by the end of the week, as seen in the graphic below.

From NOAA, rainfall totals this week range from 1.5 to 2 inches for the metro. This includes Sunday's rainfall along with the latter week's showers. (NWS/WPC)

Looking at a drier Valentine's week

Though we have an upcoming "half-and-half" week of sorts (half dry, half wet), outlooks for the following week look to be seasonable temperature-wise and dry! This should make for a nice Valentine's day, if outlooks prove to be accurate. See below for the precipitation probability outlook for the following week. Remember to stay up-to-date on the forecasts for this week, and thanks for reading!

The precipitation probability outlook for the week of February 11th to February 18th shows a strong likelihood of below-average precipitation for the metro. (NOAA/CPC)

Lei Naidoo

MWN Intern

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Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

After a winter week, looking ahead at a milder, but wet week

2024-01-21T14:50:00.002-06:00

Happy cold, but optimistic Sunday!

After a wintry week with snow, ice, and re-freezing roads, we're looking ahead at a sort-of "recovery" week on both the road and drought aspects. We've had a cold start today, but we're still on an upward path toward milder temperatures. Along that path, though, will be a very wet week.

A cold Sunday and then gradual warming early/mid week

After a(nother) #StupidCold day yesterday, today continues the trend of cold weather, but our highs stay above freezing and a ridge of high pressure keeping partly sunny skies in the area will help to improve neighborhood roads that have been struggling the past week. Sadly, lows tonight will be low enough to re-freeze areas that are wet and melted. But this leads into Monday's discussion. Southeasterly flow from the Gulf will bring in slightly warmer temps and moisture, which will lead to a few afternoon showers and a rainy night tomorrow. This will do a lot to help melt those roads that are still icy.

Surface map for Monday at 6pm, with arrows showcasing southeasterly flow and the chance for PM showers. (NWS/WPC)

For those with concerns about freezing rain, by the time showers move to our area tomorrow, we'll be warm enough to not worry about that possibility. By Monday night, most roads should be washed out and ice-less as lows will be in the 40s and showers persist. Similar wet weather is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday with sporadic showers, but temperatures will be gradually warming each day as we return to near-normal levels (highs in the low 50s for Tuesday and near 60° for Wednesday!). The occasional thunderstorm is possible towards mid-week as upper-level disturbances bring more wet weather, but we'll be well below severe thresholds for the week.

A continued wet pattern with some cooling for the late week

A cold front pushes through Wednesday night which will bring more scattered showers that night and Thursday. The front will lead into a gradual cooling pattern as we dip from highs near 60° on Thursday to lower highs in the 50s on Friday and Saturday. A few showers are possible on Friday, but these will not be as widespread as earlier in the week. Saturday also looks to be rainy and mild as the cold front stalls to our east.

As the cold front stalls to our east, temps will be near-normal again towards the end of the week. Shown are Friday morning temperatures from the European ensemble. (WeatherBell)

Thankfully, none of the rainy days this week will involve winter weather! We'll be on break this week in that regard, since temperatures will be in the 50s and near 60° for the middle part of the week and latter half.

Flash flooding potential and looking at a dry February beginning

Now, due to each day this week featuring a fair bit of rainfall, flash flooding is the primary concern for this week. Totals by the end of the week could accumulate to 3 to 5 inches.

From NOAA, rainfall totals for this week range from 3 to 5 inches for the metro.

Flash flooding concerns will mainly be confined to localized, low-lying areas for us. Regardless, always remember to turn around if you see standing water, and don't drown!

On a different note, unlike this week and the last, the beginning of February looks to be drier and warmer than average! It looks to be a nice break after this upcoming rainy week and the wintry MLK week. See below for the precipitation probability outlook. As forecasts are updated for the following week, stay tuned, and thanks for reading!

Precipitation outlook for the end of January and beginning of February, showing odds of drier than normal weather for areas along and east of the Mississippi River. (NOAA/CPC)

Lei Naidoo


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

2023 Yearly Climate Review for Memphis, TN

2024-01-20T10:40:00.000-06:00

Climate Recap

2023 will go into the history books as the fourth warmest year on record in Memphis with near average precipitation for the year. However, those overall statistics do now tell the entire story, particularly with respect to precipitation. Below is a summary of monthly temperature and precipitation data. On average, spring and summer were near to cooler than average. However, the cool season from fall to winter was much warmer than average. This resulted in an overall annual departure from normal of +1.7 degrees. There were 16 warm weather records set in 2023 and no cool temperature records.

On the precipitation side, with the exception of a dry May, precipitation ran above to well above average. The back half of the year, though, saw that surplus disappear, resulting in severe to extreme fall and early winter drought across the metro, and exceptional drought in north MS. In 2023, NWS-Memphis issued 372 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, 83 Tornado Warnings, and 54 Flash Flood Warnings for their 5-county coverage area over the Mid-South.

Precipitation accumulation graphic for 2023, showing total accumulation (green) versus average. (NOAA Regional Climate Centers)

Drought conditions as of December 26, 2023

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature

Average temperature: 65.1 degrees (1.7 degrees above average)

Average high temperature: 74.5 degrees (1.5 degrees above average)

Average low temperature: 55.8 degrees (2.0 degrees above average)

Warmest temperature: 102 degrees (August 25-26)

Days that reached 100 degrees for a high: 3

Coolest temperature: 25 degrees (January 31, February 1, March 19-20)

Days that dropped below 25 degrees for a low: 0

Heating Degrees Days: 2250 (625 below average)

Cooling Degree Days: 2426 (112 above average)

Records set or tied: Record highs: Feb. 22 (77), April 4 (87 - tied), August 24 (100), August 25 (102), October 24 (86), November 6 (81), November 7 (83), November 8 (84).

Record warm lows: April 4 (68 - tied), June 29 (81 - tied), July 1 (81), August 22 (80 - tied), August 23 (81), August 25 (80), August 26 (80), October 24 (69). No low temperature records were set in 2023.

Comments: January was the 11th warmest on record. February was the 9th warmest on average. December was the 16th warmest on record. December 2022-February 2023 (meteorological winter) was the 7th warmest on record (48.2 degrees). The period September 1-December 31 was the 6th warmest on record. The year 2023 was the 4th warmest on record.

Precipitation

Yearly total: 55.48" (0.54" below average)

Days with measurable precipitation: 113 (1.6 days above average)

Wettest Day: 4.53" (July 21)

Snowfall: 0.2" (2.25" below average)

Records set or tied: June 16 (1.75"), July 21 (4.53").

Comments: January was the 14th wettest on record. March was the 19th wettest on record. July was the 4th wettest on record. The period September 1-December 31 was the 13th driest on record.

Miscellaneous

Peak wind: Northwest/69 mph (July 5)

Average wind: 7.5 mph

Average relative humidity: 67%

Average sky cover: 52%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

MemphisWeather.net Headquarters, Bartlett, TN

Temperature

Average temperature: 62.9 degrees

Average high temperature: 74.6 degrees

Average low temperature: 53.2 degrees

Warmest temperature: 99.9 degrees (July 1)

Days that reached 100 degrees (rounded) for a high: 4

Coolest temperature: 22.4 degrees (December 19)

Comments: None

Precipitation

Yearly total: 60.34" (automated rain gauge), 58.92" (CoCoRaHS rain gauge)

Days with measurable precipitation: 118

Wettest date: 3.78" (January 3)

Snowfall: 0.3"

Comments: None

Miscellaneous

Peak wind: Northwest/47 mph (June 2nd)

Average relative humidity: 73%

Average barometric pressure: 30.03 in.

Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

Average temperature error: 2.06 degrees

Forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 67%

Average dewpoint error: 2.23 degrees

Forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 66%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Winter storm wrap-up, colder than #StupidCold, and one more shot at winter precip

2024-01-16T18:59:00.006-06:00

Quick blog this evening...

We made it through the MLK winter storm with a pretty solid 4-6" thick blanket over the area (some more, some less). The sunshine returned today and started to work its magic on the major streets, but those side streets are still a mess. Fortunately not a sheet of ice, so it could be a lot worse! I found traction to be decent if you don't go too fast!

Estimated and preliminary snowfall totals from this week's storm. Click here for a full list of reports. (NWS-Memphis)

Overnight, temperatures drop WAY into the single digits, and with a very light breeze, wind chills will be below zero. This is #BrutalCold territory and all precautions should be taken, including dripping faucets on exterior walls, wrapping pipes that are subject to freeze, and leaving those cabinet doors open to allow heat around the pipes.

But don't go overboard with the power consumption! MLGW is asking everyone to conserve, as tomorrow morning will likely set a wintertime record for energy use and they don't want to resort to brown-outs or black-outs. If you can throw an extra blanket on and drop the thermostat a degree or two, every little bit helps.

Starting immediately: #MLGW customers are asked to cooperate in voluntarily reducing power usage to avoid impacts to the entire TVA system until further notice. #MLGWNews pic.twitter.com/as667kQANe
— MLGW (@MLGW) January 16, 2024

Looking ahead, more sunshine on Wednesday, and "warmer" temperatures nearing the freezing point should really help with snowmelt. It's won't clear a side street with 6" of snow on it, but it will make a lot of areas much more manageable. (There was melting going on today with temps in the mid teens, as long as the area had direct sun exposure.)

After Wednesday though, the melting might hit the pause button just for a bit as another round of very light precipitation moves in Thursday. Temperatures will be below freezing until probably at least lunchtime, and honestly may not get much above that in the afternoon. That means we're expecting a light glaze of ice on Thursday. This won't be enough to bring down tree branches and power lines (so power loss due to those causes is not expected), but it could be enough to slicken up still-contaminated roadways and maybe some bridges and overpasses. All told, it should be less than one-tenth of an inch, but a cold bridge doesn't need much help to become slippery! We'll have more details on this event, including temperature trends, which are the biggest unknown right now, on our social media feeds leading up to Thursday.

The NAM3 model forecast radar for 8am-8pm Thursday, showing light freezing rain, then rain, move through the metro. This is still early for details, but it gives you an idea what to expect. (WeatherBell)

As we head into the weekend (seems like we've been on one for days now...), the front that brings the light icing also brings one more shot of Arctic air. Sunshine will be prevalent, but temps drop back to the 20s Friday, near 10 degrees Saturday morning and just above 20 on Saturday, before finally rebounding from the teens Sunday morning back above freezing Sunday afternoon. And then there is next week - 50s to 60 degrees for highs as #StupidCold finally gets kicked to the curb!

Outlook for temperatures (versus normal) for next week (January 22-26). By then, we may all be done with sub-freezing temperatures! (NOAA/CPC)


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

MLK Day Winter Storm Q&A (with lots of pictures and GIFS)

2024-01-13T11:05:00.001-06:00

I've written many a blog post ahead of winter storms over the years. The format that seems to work best is Q&A style, because I know you have questions. So herein I will try and provide answers - some to the point, some with more detail. Keep in mind this is AS OF SATURDAY MORNING. The forecast can (and probably will) change, or at least be refined. Buckle up!

Q: Is it really gonna snow?

A: Yes, really.

Q: When will it start and end?

A: Timing has been a chief concern for the past few days. Models have struggled. But they are getting better and I have higher confidence now. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from Sunday at noon through Tuesday at 6am. I believe we could see some flurries (or maybe freezing drizzle) by late afternoon Sunday. By early to mid evening, snow becomes likely and continues much of the night and into Monday. I would expect it to taper off by mid-afternoon Monday, but flurries or light snow could linger through the evening. We're looking at 18- 24 hours of precipitation.

Q: How much are we going to get?

A: This is the million dollar question and the one everyone cares about. I believe Sunday night's snow will be fairly uniform and light, but still with accumulation potential. On Monday, a band (or bands) of moderate to perhaps heavy snow sets up within an area of lighter snow. This adds complication to the totals because we don't know exactly where that will happen. However, recent data suggests this could be close to or south of I-40. Within that band, there is strong potential for 5-7" of snow. Outside of that sweet spot, I still think 3-4" is going to be the average. So to put an overall range on it, 3-7" is my call as of 11am Saturday. Below is what the NWS has as of right now - we're not too different.

Q: What sort of boom and bust potential is there?

A: Great question, glad you asked! On the low end, I think everyone in the 8-county MWN coverage area is likely to see at least 2", even if the storm underperforms. If that's all you get, you'll have to just shake it off. On the flip side, there is a low chance somewhere within a heavy band that 8" or more could fall.

(Warning: science lesson about to break out!) Part of the uncertainty in totals has to do with what we call the "snow to liquid ratio" (SLR), which is how much snow occurs given a certain amount of precipitation in liquid form. Typically, an inch of liquid yields 10" of snow, or a 10:1 ratio. When it is very cold with lower humidity, that ratio goes up. So an inch of liquid may be 15" of snow (15:1). That type of snow is "dry" and doesn't pack well (i.e. no snowball fights and clear it with a leaf blower). I think we'll end up with a drier snow than typical for this area, but not Minneapolis dry. It's still one of the unknowns though. Sorry for the weather nerdy interruption - back to the Q&A.

Q: Any surprises, like rain or ice mixing in?

A: Doubtful. Although, there are hints that very light precipitation at onset late Sunday afternoon could be freezing drizzle. It's not a major concern for me.

Q: How will the roads be Monday / Tuesday / in February?

A: The cold air that moves over us in the coming week is no joke. It'll be moving beyond #StupidCold to #DangerousCold for some folks. On Monday, I wouldn't recommend travel unless necessary, as we'll be in a Winter Storm Warning and there will be accumulation actively occurring. (Yes, I know the Grizzlies play a big MLK Day game. We don't need fans added to the injury list, tbh.)

Fortunately, rain doesn't preface this event, so roads will be treated starting today and that will help. But some of those treatments don't work as well when temps get into the mid teens or colder, like they will Monday morning and definitely Tuesday morning.

As for Tuesday, it's kind of wait and see, but if 3-4" or more falls and traffic is light Monday (likely, due to snow falling and the holiday), Tuesday morning may not be much better. The only thing that might help a little is if the snow is dusty and, with some wind blowing, main streets might fare a bit better. A hard freeze Monday night with no traffic will likely mean a dicey Tuesday morning though. Sunshine on Tuesday, despite bitterly cold temperatures could help with primary roads. I think odds are above even that Tuesday is a "snow day" though too. (That one is for you, teachers!) By February, we should be fine. 😉

Q: I have a flight...

A: Are you going to the Bahamas? Make every effort, and add a ticket for me.

So the airport is as equipped as any place to handle winter weather. They have more snow removal equipment than most southern cities and FedEx won't slow down (much). But getting there could be "tough sledding" (see questions above). The best answer is check with your airline. There will probably be cancellations, but not necessarily because the airport is "closed." It won't close. But airlines don't like getting planes stuck or crews unable to fly due to flight rules, so many times they proactively cancel.

Q: How about the #StupidCold this week?

A: Snow is fun and generally not super dangerous. This cold will NOT be. After today, we likely won't get back above freezing until Thursday afternoon. In the meantime, temperatures will be in the teens to 20s Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. We'll drop into the single digits Wednesday morning. Wind chills will be dangerous, even with just a 10-15 mph wind.

Forecast wind chills Tuesday and Wednesday mornings

Q: Will my pipes burst?

A: If your pipes have had issues when it got brutally cold just before Christmas in 2022 or in mid-February 2021, you might be at risk again. This week will be a "4-P Week." Take care of your people (and others if able), your pets (indoors or a warm place), your pipes, and your plants. Keep the faucets dripping and cabinets open on exterior walls where there are pipes.

Q: How about the electrical grid?

A: Due to the prolonged cold, and the fact that it will affect a large area in the southeast, energy load will be well above average. I don't have to remind you of Christmas 2022 when the load ended up resulting in many issues. MLGW has already indicated that they are in much better shape than 2022, but that they will request conservation of utilities. Scattered power outages seem possible, although it won't be as bad as if ice were pulling down trees and lines. Heavy snow could cause some issues, as might excessive load. Be prepared just in case and conserve where able.

Q: What's this I am hearing about Thursday? Are we going to do this all over again??

A: I'm not talking about it just yet, other than to say "do it all over again" is not in the cards. A light winter precip event is possible, and the cold will be reinforced for a couple days behind it. Let's get through this one first.

Q: When will it be 70 degrees and sunny again?

A: March.

Final word: This could be a dangerous storm for many in our community. While we had a little fun with this (and you probably will enjoy it especially if you have kids), please make sure you read closely the safety tips and other advice. Take care of your neighbors and be smart about your choices. Most importantly, prepare for the brutal cold. It'll be a week to ten days of well below average temperatures.

Erik Proseus


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Winter has arrived - very active weather week ahead

2024-01-06T12:52:00.003-06:00

December warmth is long gone now and Mother Nature is reminding us it is indeed the season of winter. We're also going to start making a dent in the rainfall deficit of the past few months in the coming week or so. I sent the post below on social media yesterday; it's what we in meteorology call a "progressive pattern" (nothing to do with politics).

Weekend chill

Last night, the first in a series of low pressure systems to affect the region moved by to our south. We got about half an inch of rainfall late afternoon into the overnight. Today, we're left with a cold, clammy, damp but not precipitating, gray winter day. Temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 40s this afternoon with a westerly breeze. Sprinkles are possible this evening, but then it appears the sun will return by midday tomorrow. That will help reduce the chill a bit, though we still likely won't hit 50 degrees on Sunday, which is the average high for this time of year. At least most of the weekend is dry.

Early week rain and thunderstorms

The next in the series of low pressure centers moves through Monday night into early Tuesday. Rain develops ahead of that weather-maker late Monday afternoon. A very wet Monday night is expected as wind picks up. Even a few thunderstorms are possible from this dynamic system! While not expected here, severe storms are likely to our south, along the Gulf Coast and north into central MS, as high wind and a few tornadoes are possible. We'll get 1-2" of rain as showers continue through Tuesday.

The NBM model forecast for rainfall amounts from our early week weather system. (WeatherBell)

The biggest impact from this system though, apart from the heavy rain, will be the wind. Gusts Monday night will approach 30-35 mph and could reach 40 mph on Tuesday! If you do not yet have your outdoor holiday decor down, this weekend is the time! Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will reach the low 50s. No threat for winter weather with this system.

NWS forecast probabilities of seeing wind gusts of 40 mph on Tuesday.

Mid-week lull

As wind calms down a bit heading into mid-week, we should be set for a couple of nice days. Sunshine returns Wednesday, though it will be cool and still a little breezy. Look for lows in the upper 20s and highs in the upper half of the 40s. Thursday we can expect high clouds to start moving in ahead of the next wave of weather, but the day should be dry with temperatures rebounding into the mid 50s.

Another wet wind-maker, then Arctic blast

Yet another strong low pressure system will affect the region starting Thursday night and continuing through Friday. This one will pass by to our west, putting the Mid-South in a "warm sector" airmass on Friday. Expect additional rain, some of it heavy, possibly with a few thunderstorms, and strong southerly wind gusts which could once again easily top 30-35 mph on Friday. Looks like another bad day to have car line duty, teachers! There are still details to work out on the track of that system, but there is some model data suggesting we should watch Friday night pretty closely for the timing of departing moisture and arriving cold air.

After Friday's system, a large Arctic high pressure system that dives through the Plains midweek reaches the Mid-South in time for next weekend. After Friday night, we should be dry, but it likely won't be a weekend you want to spend outdoors. We could be entering #StupidCold territory. High temperatures will probably not get out of the 30s, while overnight lows will drop well into the 20s with maybe some teens hanging out in some areas (and I'm not talking about juvenile delinquents!).

Temperature anomaly (departure from average) map for Sunday, January 14. Nearly the entire country is expected to be colder than average, much of it well below, according to the European model ensemble data. (WeatherBell)

That cold air appears to have staying power, so we'll be watching for any systems that may try to sneak through it, but that would be the week after next, so for now we'll stick to pattern recognition and bet on the coldest air of the season so far. Stay tuned, and dig out those heavy coats!


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

December 2023 Climate Report for Memphis, TN

2024-01-01T19:29:00.001-06:00

December Climate Recap

The month of December was warmer than normal, averaging over 4 degrees above normal. The month started with highs in the 60's, which rose to the low 70's on the 9th, but a cold front moved in and low temperatures dropped to the 20's the following night. Temperatures warmed back to the mid 60's by mid-month, cooling slightly for a few days, then back up to the mid to upper 60's in the lead-up to Christmas. Christmas Day high temperatures were near 60. Temps cooled off the next few days, with the high on the 29th only near 40. By New Year's Eve, highs were near 60 once again.

Departure from normal temperatures for December for the Lower 48 states

Below normal precipitation trends continued in December with only 2.60 inches of rain falling, which is almost 3 inches below the average for December of 5.49 inches. The ongoing drought was exacerbated by the lack of rainfall with much of north Mississippi worsening to exceptional drought status and severe to extreme drought in place for the remainder of the area. The image below highlights the drought conditions as of December 26th, while the second shows the downward trend over the course of the month. Thunderstorms occurred on the 9th with large hail, ranging from quarter to softball size, reported across the northern MS counties in the greater Memphis metro. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and one Tornado Warning were issued by NWS Memphis that afternoon.

Drought conditions as of December 26, 2023

Change in drought conditions from November 28 to December 26, 2023

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature

Average temperature: 49.0 degrees (4.2 degrees above average)

Average high temperature: 58.8 degrees (5.4 degrees above average)

Average low temperature: 39.1 degrees (2.9 degrees above average)

Warmest temperature: 73 degrees (9th)

Coolest temperature: 29 degrees (11th & 19th)

Heating Degrees Days: 487 (141 below average)

Cooling Degree Days: 0 (2 below average)

Records set or tied: None

Comments: The average high temperature of 58.8 degrees was 7th warmest on record.

Precipitation

Monthly total: 2.60" (2.89" below average)

Days with measurable precipitation: 7 (3.2 days below average)

Wettest 24-hour period: 0.98" (11/30-12/1)

Snowfall: None (0.2" below average)

Records set or tied: None

Comments: None

Miscellaneous

Peak wind: Southwest/39 mph (9th)

Average wind: 7.4 mph

Average relative humidity: 64%

Average sky cover: 52%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

MemphisWeather.net Headquarters, Bartlett, TN

Temperature

Average temperature: 46.5 degrees

Average high temperature: 56.9 degrees

Average low temperature: 36.3 degrees

Warmest temperature: 71.9 degrees (9th)

Coolest temperature: 22.4 degrees (19th)

Comments: None

Precipitation

Monthly total: 2.12" (automated rain gauge), 2.14" (CoCoRaHS rain gauge)

Days with measurable precipitation: 8

Wettest date: 0.82" (25th) (via automated gauge)

Snowfall: None

Comments: None

Miscellaneous

Peak wind: South/27 mph (16th)

Average relative humidity: 71%

Average barometric pressure: 30.15 in.

Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

Average temperature error: 2.17 degrees

Forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 63%

Average dewpoint error: 1.96 degrees

Forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 68%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Not a White Christmas, but a Wet Christmas

2023-12-21T20:38:00.000-06:00

As fall officially turns to winter, temperatures are (of course!) warming as we head into a long Christmas weekend. I think we'll take that if the other option is what we had last year - frozen pipes and rolling blackouts! The trade-off is going to be rainy conditions off and on through the weekend. Let's talk about it.

Temperature in Bartlett just before 6am on December 23, 2022 (-0.3°)

As high pressure that brought us cold weather earlier this week slides to our east, wind has shifted to the south, resulting in warmer air over the Mid-South. Low pressure will develop to the west and moisture will increase from the Gulf of Mexico. That will mean less itchy, dry skin as dewpoints have risen from the teens a couple of days ago into the 30s by Friday, and eventually the 40s to 50s later this weekend.

With the increase in moisture, small rain chances in the form of hit-and-miss brief showers will pop up late Friday and into the weekend. Outdoor plans through much of the weekend, until Sunday evening, should not be overly impacted, and the mild temperatures will make for pleasant conditions for outdoor activities outside of breezy south wind. Just keep in mind that a shower could pop up about anytime

A loop of the surface weather maps from Friday morning through Tuesday morning, showing

The main event from the next system will occur on Sunday evening though Monday morning - Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. Heavy rain is likely at times overnight Sunday night and a few rumbles of thunder are even possible. (It may not be reindeer hooves on the roof you hear that night!) Severe thunderstorms are not expected as the primary low pressure center passes well to our north and instability will be limited. Some showers appear to linger into Christmas Day, but could be departing by the afternoon hours. Still too early to know... stay tuned to the MWN Forecast for updates throughout the next few days. The rest of the intra-holiday week looks to be dry and cooler again.

And for those asking about winter weather in early January, it's ENTIRELY too early to even discuss...

Erik Proseus


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Digging into the potential for a holiday-season storm event on Saturday

2023-12-07T19:02:00.004-06:00

As we approach another busy holiday season weekend, the threat of rain and thunderstorms is threatening to put a damper on at least half of it. The fact that there is some potential for strong to severe storms reminds us that it is not just the holiday season, but also still secondary severe weather season in Dixie Alley. Let's take a look at what to expect for those with Saturday shopping, decorating, baking, or other "tis the season" plans.

Priming the atmospheric pump

A December warm-up has commenced. High temperatures were back into the lower 60s Thursday afternoon and slightly warmer conditions are on tap Friday, despite more cloud cover, as southerly flow has become established across the region. That will also lead to milder overnight conditions heading towards the weekend, as well as rising dewpoints - a sign that moisture is increasing.

Friday will be "pump primer day" as dewpoints steadily climb into the 50s on gusty south wind, heading towards 60 degrees by Saturday morning. Cloud cover will also thicken up Friday as upper level moisture also increases. A few sprinkles or a brief afternoon shower are possible, though most stay dry before sunset. By Friday evening, conditions will be very mild with after-dusk temperatures near 60 and southerly wind gusts to 25 mph. The chance of showers climbs in the evening as well, so though it will be comfortable, raindrops will be scattered around if you are going to holiday parties/events or the Grizzlies matchup with the Timberwolves downtown.

Forecast dewpoints from Friday sunrise through midnight. Southerly flow will bring increasing moisture to the region on Friday. (WeatherBell)

Saturday: a wash-out at a minimum

By Saturday morning, the cold front that will likely disrupt outdoor events during the day will have made its across AR a chunk of Arkansas. Where exactly it will be is still TBD, but it is safe to say it will be to our west, which puts areas from Louisiana and southern AR into the Mississippi Delta, and potentially the Memphis metro, in a zone of unsettled conditions. As low pressure moves along the front, it will bring more unstable air into this "zone of unsettled-ness," juxtaposed with increasing wind aloft that could serve to strengthen any storms that can form in warm, unstable air. We do expect to see thunderstorms embedded within areas of heavy rain during the day Saturday, but the degree to which they become "strong" or even severe, is a tricky question, even if you were to forget that it is indeed December.

Surface weather map on Saturday at 6am (NWS/WPC)

What is unknown as of Thursday evening is how much storm fuel (aka, instability) will be present over our area and when exactly the front will move through, which will bring an abrupt end to the severe weather chances. While the wind energy over the Mid-South seems sufficient to support a low-end severe weather threat, instability is likely to be more prolific to our south. The later the front arrives (i.e., late afternoon), the better the chances are that we see scattered strong to severe wind gusts. If it seeps southeast into the metro earlier in the day, it will shove the unstable air to our east and we'll be in for a wet, but not too stormy, day.

Most computer model solutions right now favor a mid-afternoon frontal passage. Thus, the Storm Prediction Center currently has their level 2 ("Slight") severe weather risk area extending over the metro (see above). Should we get strong storms, they would be most likely in the afternoon hours and damaging wind would be the greatest concern, besides heavy rain. Tornado and hail threats appear fairly low. In any case, rain looks to continue through the evening hours and could be heavy at times, as temperatures begin their plummet from the upper 60s towards the upper 30s by Sunday morning. It won't be a pleasant evening by any stretch.

Cold winter air arrives

Behind the front, cool high pressure quickly builds in. In fact, it will be downright cold on Sunday, despite abundant sunshine. Wind chills in the morning will be in the 20s and high temperatures in the afternoon only in the mid 40s! A great day to sip a warm beverage indoors and gaze outside at the seemingly beautiful day. The rest of next week is dominated by cool high pressure. Rain chances don't reappear until the following weekend, natch, with highs generally in the mid 50s and lows in the 30s.


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

November 2023 Climate Report for Memphis, TN

2023-12-05T21:29:00.001-06:00

November Climate Recap

The month of November was generally warm and averaged more than a two degrees above normal. The start of the month was below freezing the morning of the 1st, with temps only making it to the low 50's during the afternoon. Temperatures warmed to the low 70's by the 4th, and into the low 80's on the 6th through 8th, but fell to the 60's by the 10th. High temperatures generally remained in the 60's to near 70 degrees through mid-month, dropping back to the 50's by the 21st. On Thanksgiving, we were near 60 degrees, with highs back in the upper 40's to near 50 to finish out the month.

Departure from normal temperatures for November for the Lower 48 states

Below normal precipitation trends continued in November. The ongoing drought improved somewhat in Tennessee, but much of north Mississippi continues to experience severe to extreme drought, with exceptional drought further south. The image below highlights the drought conditions as of November 28th, and the second one shows the improvement (green) or worsening (yellow) drought conditions. There was no severe weather during the month, although thunderstorms with heavy rain affected the metro on the 20th.

Current drought conditions as of November 28th, 2023

Change in drought conditions from October 31st to November 28th

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature

Average temperature: 55.0 degrees (2.3 degrees above average)

Average high temperature: 65.4 degrees (2.8 degrees above average)

Average low temperature: 44.6 degrees (1.7 degrees above average)

Warmest temperature: 84 degrees (8th)

Coolest temperature: 29 degrees (27th)

Heating Degrees Days: 313 (66 below average)

Cooling Degree Days: 22 (10 above average)

Records set or tied: Record highs on the 6th (81) and 8th (84); record high tied on the 7th (83)

Comments: None

Precipitation

Monthly total: 3.02" (1.67" below average)

Days with measurable precipitation: 6 (3.0 days below average)

Wettest 24-hour period: 1.54" (20th)

Snowfall: None

Records set or tied: None

Comments: None

Miscellaneous

Peak wind: Southwest/40 mph (8th)

Average wind: 6.3 mph

Average relative humidity: 62%

Average sky cover: 47%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

MemphisWeather.net Headquarters, Bartlett, TN

Temperature

Average temperature: 51.5 degrees

Average high temperature: 64.0 degrees

Average low temperature: 40.7 degrees

Warmest temperature: 82.6 degrees (8th)

Coolest temperature: 26.6 degrees (27th)

Comments: The high of 80.4 degrees on the 6th broke the previous record high of 78.1 for that day in 2005.

Precipitation

Monthly total: 2.51" (automated rain gauge), 2.62" (CoCoRaHS rain gauge)

Days with measurable precipitation: 4

Wettest date: 1.41" (20th) (via automated gauge)

Snowfall: None

Comments: None

Miscellaneous

Peak wind: South/26 mph (8th)

Average relative humidity: 72%

Average barometric pressure: 30.15 in.

Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.15 degrees

MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 59%

MWN average dewpoint error: 2.39 degrees

MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 69%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Rainy and breezy as the calendar flips, but what about the weekend?

2023-11-29T19:24:00.004-06:00

A generally cool and dry pattern changes for a few days as we head to the end of November and into the last month of 2023. A storm system exiting the Rockies and heading across the southern Plains and into the Deep South will bring us rainfall and perhaps a few thunderstorms in the next 36 hours. It could also affect your outdoor Christmas decor! But it is also a weekend chock full of seasonal activities, so what about rain chances and temperatures for the weekend? Let's dive in!

Thursday/Thursday night

A bit milder weather is expected tonight with southerly wind and high clouds moving in as temperatures only reach the 30s in rural areas. The rest of us will see lows at or above 40 tonight. Clouds thicken tomorrow as low pressure moves through the southern Plains and rain spreads towards the Mid-South, arriving around mid-afternoon as temperatures peak near 60. Rain picks up heading into the evening with a few rumbles of thunder possible as well.

Forecast precipitation via the NWS National Blend of Models shows totals should generally run above a half inch, but less than an inch in the metro. (WeatherBell)

Southerly wind also increases Thursday night with frequent gusts to 30 mph and a few possibly approaching 40 mph! A Wind Advisory has been issued so make sure the outdoor decor is tied down well, or maybe just moved inside if possible for those inflatables! Temperatures remain mild overnight - in the 50s - as rain falls much of the night.

Probability of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph on Thursday (night). Frequent gusts above 30 mph are likely. (NWS-Memphis)

Friday/Saturday

Most rain will be gone by Friday morning, but with the front still to our west as it's parent low pressure center moves into the mid-Mississippi Valley, it will remain mild with a breezy southwest wind. High temperatures should be well above average despite persistent cloud cover, peaking in the upper 60s.

The Friday morning weather map shows rain moving to the east as a cold front approaches from the west. The front arrives Friday evening dry. (NWS/WPC)

Behind the cold front on Friday evening (which will pass through with no additional rainfall), temperatures drop to the mid to upper 40s Saturday morning before rising to the lower 60s in the afternoon. Clouds will continue to stream overhead with a north wind at 5-10 mph. Overall, it should be a pretty good day for the St. Jude Memphis Marathon and other outdoor activities.

Sunday and beyond

As the late-week system finally pulls to the east, sunshine returns Sunday and continues through the first half of the week, at least. Temperatures will be a bit cooler, but not cold, with lows mostly in the 40s and highs in the upper 50s to low 60s until Wednesday when it gets a bit cooler. Overall, not much to complain about with this forecast!


MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador	Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder