The experts say that the biggest benefit of having a seasonal business is that one does not have to work year-round. It is possible to take several weeks or months off without being burdened by the constant pressures of running a business. Mechel was able to learn in kolel most of the year and yet find a location that rented out a small store for the summer season only meaning that he did not have to rent the store for the full year. Perhaps the only disadvantage is that he could not vacation with his family like some of his colleagues.

A good percentage of American businesses can be classified as seasonal businesses. At this time of the year, it is common to see many pop-up food stores in resort areas and stadiums. Places like the Catskills are full of seasonal stores, albeit increasingly many of the stores stay open year-round to cater to the growing number of people who are making the Catskills their full-time home.

Many of the seasonal stores have a “feed” from a year-round store, meaning they can always transport goods from that store to the seasonal location and the same in reverse when the season ends. These stores are either theirs or somehow connected to them. There are a few rules for seasonal businesses which are important to follow. The first is to keep the overhead low. The second would be to somehow maintain contact with an existing customer base to the extent that a database is kept from year to year. Marketing should take place 2-3 months before the seasonable business opens. It is often good to team up with another seasonal business to share in the marketing costs. 

As a general rule of thumb, it is recommended that businesses have at least three to six months’ worth of cash on hand to cover operating expenses if possible, though it is important that the business can afford whatever amount is set aside. According to the SBA, failure rates for seasonal businesses are on par with year-round businesses. Much like teachers’ salaries, seasonal businesses have to spread their income across an entire year. Many teachers, for example, take on summer jobs. A landscaping business flush with cash through the spring and summer months must weigh that against the relatively barren fall and winter months unless they also do snow removal. 

Seasonal businesses not only have ups and downs in terms of sales and revenue, but also in terms of expenses. Because these businesses  have specific busy seasons and demands, they also have specific periods when they are preparing for an influx of business — that translates to money spent on inventory, staffing, and more. A summer seasonal business must have money set aside to get the business up and running even before the first dollar comes in.

While no business wants to imagine the worst happening — a natural disaster, a break-in, health crises — seasonal businesses are particularly vulnerable to disasters. Fires have often disrupted businesses in the Catskills, for example. FEMA reports that 40 percent of businesses aren’t even able to reopen after a disaster. 

A seasonal business’s budget must be drafted with these contingencies in mind, as well as an emergency fund. Most business finance managers recommend having three months’ worth of business expenses set aside for an emergency fund, with one month’s worth being the absolute minimum. This gives a seasonal business a cushion to figure out how to execute Plan B, as would a line of credit. This emergency fund should have strict criteria to establish its use, so it does not become another discretionary fund.

When I think of seasonable businesses I often think of the people who sell at farmers markets who are a diverse crowd. They remind me very much of the age-old peddlers who would travel from town to town to sell their wares. But it is not only their products that distinguish them. They have varied reasons for being there in the first place, different ways of reaching customers—and different ways of turning a profit.

For some, farmers markets are a way to try out new products and get customer feedback without having to spend a lot or to sell a big bumper crop or surplus, says David K. O’Neil, an international market consultant based in Philadelphia. “Selling at markets is a great way to meet people in the community. It is also a good way to learn business skills for younger people or new immigrants. Plus, you get paid on the spot, so you do not have to wait.”

The most recent U.S. Department of Agriculture survey estimated that there were 8,140 farmers markets in the U.S. in 2019. Farmers markets are particularly popular in California, which has the most of any state, with 660 certified by the state’s county agricultural commissioners. Many of those were forced to close or scale back during the pandemic, says Jay Van Rein, spokesperson for the California Department of Food and Agriculture, “but have rebounded significantly.”

When the pandemic hit, Trevor Adams was torn. He wanted to keep his baking job in San Francisco, but a congenital heart condition, combined with the bakery’s tight working quarters, made it impossible to feel safe. When Night Heron Bread—named after a local bird—finally made it to market last year, Mr. and Ms. Adams were not thinking much about the placement of their tent. “We were newbies at the market, didn’t want to make waves, and followed the instructions of the market manager,” said Ms. Adams.

But they lucked out. A prime spot at the corner of Haight and Webster, one of the busiest commercial streets in Alameda, California, opened. The space was usually filled, but a vendor did not show up that week, so Night Heron got a shot—and ended up becoming a fixture there. “I think because we are Alameda locals and the manager knew that he thought the corner was a good spot,” says Ms. Adams. “He told us that people started arriving at the market to ask where we were, so perhaps it was convenient to put us in a prominent location.”

On days with good weather, they load up 125 loaves of bread to sell at $10 to $13 each, plus 50 baguettes at $5 and flatbreads, pastries, cookies, and jars of jam. Revenue from a Saturday market was usually between $1,600 and $1,800; expenses ran around $400 to $500, including a fee to the market itself that can total up to about $75. That leaves about $1,200 profit per market, according to Ms. Adams.

Our community has its own Almedas particularly in the Catskills in the summer. Many of the stores have been there for decades; others more recent. We, of course, have our Matzoh bakeries, esrogim stores and other Yom Tov pop ups. Seasonal businesses are not new in our community and should definitely be an option for parnassah like Mechel if planned properly.

I have come across many similar situations where the entrepreneurs were simply dismissive of the possible consequences of using a potentially problematic name. I recall one saying, “no one will ever find out. I am just a little guy.” In the end they spent many dollars to rectify a situation that could have certainly been avoided if they addressed the issue probably at the outset.

Names hold enormous power in business. Establishing ownership of and rights to a business name is an important step for businesses that want to ensure a name remains one-of-a-kind and potentially unchallenged. A name is one of the most important assets of a business and is usually front and center of a sale. Registering a trademark helps protect a name or brand from intellectual property theft or misuse as a business grows. Doing it right is not only essential but extremely important in the growth of a business.

Over the years there were well established trademarks that had to drop their name because it was part of the vernacular and became generic. They had selected names that were easily identifiable and memorable, but the names were so good that they could not hold on to them. Escalator was owned by Otis and the trademark was revoked in 1950. The thermos, yo-yo, laundromat, and even wine cooler were all once trademarked before becoming so linguistically generic — so commonly used to describe a thing in society — that the rights were revoked in a court of law.

Another example of how a trademark can be caught in the web of commonly used generic names is Kleenex, a brand name for a line of facial tissues but which is also interchangeably used as a genericized trademark for facial tissue. “Hand me a Kleenex” means hand me a tissue. The name Kleenex is currently a registered trademark of Kimberly-Clark and manufactured in 78 countries and sold in more than 196 countries.

Google is a name that is commonly used today. In fact, the court ruled in favor of Google allowing them to retain their trademark, even if the term “google” has become synonymous with internet searches. “I’ll google it to find out where George Washington was born, “ said a history teacher.

The value of a trademark and the name go hand in hand. Some of the big boys with huge value  are Amazon ($416 billion), Apple ($352 billion), Microsoft ($327 billion), Google ($324 billion), and Visa ($187 billion). The Coca-Cola Corp owns the trademark of the name Coca-Cola, as well as the trademark on the bottle shape, and the graphic representation of their name. These are all things that help distinguish them from other cola brands and define their individual product.

Trademark infringement is an everyday occurrence in the business world. The law defines  trademark infringement based on 3 criteria: the plaintiff must demonstrate that (1) it has a valid and legally protectable mark; (2) it owns the mark; and (3) the defendant’s use of the mark to identify goods or services causes a likelihood of confusion. Who better than kashrus agencies have suffered from this malaise. Unauthorized usage of kashrus symbols has become an everyday occurrence.

Congress and the courts have been busy tightening trademark laws and redrawing the lines of what constitutes trademark infringement. In 2020 Congress passed the Trademark Modernization Act (TMA) and other legal guidance to tackle fraud, remove “deadwood” from the federal trademark register and streamline prosecution and enforcement strategies. The challenges in court cases have been steadily mounting. When Brooklyn Brewery Corp. attempted to prevent a competitor from registering a rival trademark in relation to hand sanitizer, it was denied by the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.

In January 2021, the US Supreme Court denied Jack Daniel’s petition to review the Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit’s decision allowing for humorous messages on products to qualify for the same First Amendment protections provided to expressive works. Jack Daniel’s sued VIP Products for making a dog toy that resembled a Jack Daniel’s bottle with the name “Bad Spaniels” on it, along with several other humorous quips

Counterfeit products present real dangers for consumers, particularly goods that may impact consumer health and safety. 3M, which makes disposable respirator marks, undertook a massive campaign to combat counterfeit products, setting up a fraud hotline and instituting dozens of lawsuits. The PTO, hoping to educate the public about the dangers of counterfeit goods, teamed up with the National Crime Prevention Council and McGruff the Crime Dog for a nationwide PSA campaign, warning consumers that “counterfeits [] are cheating consumers and causing serious injuries and death, hurting U.S. businesses, and funding organized crime.”

Congress is also considering legislation that would address the issue of increased fraud including the Stopping Harmful Offers on Platforms by Screening Against Fakes in E-commerce Act (SHOP SAFE Act) and the Integrity, Notification and Fairness in Online Retail Marketplaces for Consumers Act (INFORM Consumers Act). 

It is well worth the expense of doing the trademark right. Often people assume that they are merely tweaking a name or logo and that they will not be caught but the evidence is clear that someone will be watching even if it is a small business vs.a Goliath.

From my marketing perspective it is extremely important to choose a name that is easy to recall, helps identify the product, and certainly distinguishes it from other similar brands. In recent years there has been increasing abuse of trademarks and some have taken license to plagiarize names and even logos. With that in mind, it becomes increasingly important to make sure that names, logos, and brands have ironclad protection.

The popularity of trade shows is manifested in two major tracks. Members of our community attend general trade shows in significant numbers, occasionally resulting in special accommodation for tefilos and kosher food. It is no longer uncommon to see yarmulkes in big numbers at trade shows all over the country. They blend into the large audiences at these shows and come away with many new leads. Equally as trailblazing are the many trade events in our community further strengthening an unprecedented charedi commerce that is so dominant in frum neighborhoods. Many of these shows are professionally produced and are contributing big time to the growth of our communities. Of late several of these events have also focused on the end user, the consumer.

Trade shows make it much more comfortable for charedi business people, both men and women, to interact in a business environment. It proved once again that despite such technological advances as Zoom and Teams, there was no replacement for in-person “eyeball to eyeball” as many experts refer to trade shows. Many businesspeople I spoke to actually felt that their businesses suffered during the Coronavirus period and beyond. They felt that the inability to meet business colleagues and prospects in person actually set them back. This was true for many others in the business community 2020-2021.   That is why trade shows returned as soon as it was safe to have people exhibit and visit trade shows.

In 2022, in-person U.S. trade shows enjoyed a steady comeback. Attendees and exhibitors returned to show floors to meet face-to-face again, event-related organizations went on hiring and promoting sprees, and industry professionals expressed a tone of optimism that hadn’t been heard since before the COVID-19 pandemic. As we enter the second half of 2023, trade shows are finally picking up steam. Cancellations for both exhibitors and visitors are down. Bloomberg reports that “Nationwide, about 11.5 million professionals attended business-to-business trade shows in the U.S. last year, a 55% jump over 2020.” Pre-pandemic attendance (2019) was at 35.3 million, with quite a bit of ground still to be made up. 

One survey in 2022 found that 65% of businesses felt that in-person trade shows were an invaluable part of their marketing strategy despite the new technologies which might suggest that it wasn’t necessarily essential to conduct in-person business.  However, 35% of respondents said that in-person trade shows needed to change to stay relevant with different business people providing different perspectives as to what needs to be changed. Some of the changes that were suggested were more individual meetings, focused seminars, better layout of show floor and better planning vehicles. Virtually none felt that in-person trade shows were no longer relevant and should give way to the new technologies.

At Chicago’s McCormick Place, attendance at shows in the second half of last year was down about 35%,” wrote Michael Sasso for Bloomberg. As one of the busiest show venues in the nation, the drop was noteworthy. But most experts feel that trade shows are back, and that attendance will go up in 2023 and beyond. In fact, the travel industry is readying for increased trade show attendance. Last month, Marriott brought corporate and association customers to New York City for their annual customer conference. “This year’s iteration focused on the optimism surrounding the return of in-person events, and the new ways Marriott is amplifying group business,” according to BizBash.  

Despite a seismic shift in many business practices caused by the pandemic, it seems that trade shows are here to stay. But industry experts say that there will most definitely be changes. They predict smaller booths, less staffing in booths, smaller aisles, much smaller shows in terms of space, and better use of technology to capture prospects and leads. The experts also predict a better quality of buyers as companies are careful about mushrooming travel expenses, especially for “secondary” staff.

Trade shows are also a vital part of building industries and often the main source of revenues for trade associations. The pandemic shutdowns took a real financial toll on these associations, resulting in layoffs and lots of cost-cutting moves…not to mention dipping into rainy day financial reserves to stay afloat. Corporate and institutional restrictions on travel expenses will also have an impact, favoring shows that can be done in a day, preferably by ground travel, with maybe an overnight stay. Some corporations caution that they will not return to liberal travel policies of the pre-Covid era.

Trade shows can help build up a category. In the case of Kosherfest it added value to kosher food, encouraged companies to produce new kosher products and was responsible for the explosion of kosher independent supermarkets. The show ended its 33-year run recently  because kosher food had become a dynamic industry. No longer were manufacturers reliant on a kosher show to introduce new items. With 62 large supermarkets of 10,000 square feet or more, there was plenty of room to showcase a large number of kosher products and put these products in front of consumers. For me, as a marketing expert, Kosherfest closed down, not because it was a failure but rather because it was a huge success. Yes, the children had grown up and were also extremely successful.

Uber, which revolutionized the taxi business by using technology is now using its enormous power and reach to transform the restaurant business. Known as Uber Eats, it has changed the way people relate to restaurants, perhaps due to COVID when dining in person was not an option. People simply learned that they could dine at home with the food coming from the restaurant of their choice. In 2022, Uber Eats helped facilitate billions of dollars in orders to local restaurants, grocery, alcohol, and convenience stores, resulting in deliveries to more than 50 million customers across the US and Canada. As a result, merchants earned more than $15 billion in sales through Uber Eats. The delivery of food became a major source of revenue for the restaurant and catering industry. Restaurants upgraded their websites, and many new sites came into being with menus and reservation options.

Not everyone in the restaurant business is happy about Uber Eats. Restaurants are particularly upset about the whopping 30% cut that Uber takes from every order. They are concerned that even if they added back the charge that the food would be so expensive as to make them less competitive. Perhaps that is why Uber Eats is no longer the leader in that category. DoorDash has  become the US leader in online food delivery and the popularity of Grubhub has been growing. As of 2021, DoorDash boasted over 390,000 partner restaurants and 18 million users, with a market share of 45%. It accounts for 58 percent of all meal deliveries within the US. Grubhub made over $10 billion in gross transaction volume in 2022, a 4.1% increase on the previous year.

Truthfully, it was easier for Uber to expand to food delivery than the competition since they already had the technical infrastructure, street-routing software, and the drivers. They also had the ability to cross-market to their large taxi customer base, especially for the many who already have accounts with them. Some drivers keep small clipped on racks with brochures about the food delivery service. Despite their reservations about Uber Eats and their anger at the exorbitant cut, restaurant owners say they have no choice but to accede to customer wishes who have accounts with Uber. What was supposed to be a temporary measure during the pandemic is turning into a lasting consumer habit. 

Yet another industry that is undergoing dramatic change due to technology is hospitality. Research showed that beginning  in 2014, Airbnb reduced hotel profits by up to 3.7 percent and it has cut into hospitality by at least that margin every year since. Airbnb is considered public enemy number one by hoteliers all over the world. The alure of Airbnb is that it offers spacious quarters which are particularly attractive to families and are less expensive. The research also showed that in the ten US cities with the largest Airbnb market share, 1.3% fewer hotel nights were booked, resulting in a 1.5% loss in hotel revenue.

The emergence of Airbnb and its growing popularity is of deep concern to the hotel industry. Hotels have been struggling to return to pre COVID levels, especially with the vacation and leisure part of the industry. Although this type of travel has rebounded and appears to be on the rise, a significant portion have shifted to Airbnb. One Airbnb client put it this way: “I love the amenities at hotels, but Airbnb makes my family feel that it is a home away from home.” What is even more disconcerting for the hotel industry is that Airbnb has started to go after business travel, a primary target for the hotel industry. Experts say that the hotel industry must upgrade their facilities and increase the amenities to compete. “They let their guard down during the COVID and post COVID era, and now they will pay for it,” wrote one travel expert. He also noted that many hotels have diluted their services including not replacing towels very often and even cutting back on the frequency of housekeeping. 

Technology has also affected another segment of the travel industry, the age-old travel agencies. Travel agencies have been going out of business in record numbers as they are becoming increasingly irrelevant. A recent survey showed that nearly 16 percent will go out of business in six weeks or less and more than 24 percent are in danger of closing within the next three months. It is certainly not a growth industry as very few new travel agencies have opened in the past two years. Most people now habitually book their travel on-line. The only travel agencies that still seem to be relevant are those that specialize in group travel, family itineraries and wholesale bookings. 

It is no secret that technology has changed the world, especially when it comes to businesses like food delivery, hospitality, and travel agents. But most often the narrative has focused on jobs or how technology is replacing the need for human involvement. Most drivers have evidence of the change when they drive through the toll booth area and notice the automated electronic scanners above instead of the manned toll booths. Some Western countries are slowly converting checkout counters to self-checkouts in supermarkets and box stores. 

While consumers are largely the beneficiaries of new technologies the change is an enormous challenge to business as they must adapt to the new world, particularly to their customer base.

Ariel is not alone in facing this dilemma. Nor is it restricted to the service business, as it extends to retail in all areas. As bad as the shortage has been in the last decade, it became particularly acute in the post Covid era. More people were opting for jobs that were more flexible and allowed them to work in whole or in part remotely. Take a stroll on any commercial strip and you are likely to see posted signs of “Sales Help Wanted!”

Many leading business experts predicted that the shortage would be temporary, particularly in the post pandemic era. But, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “sales occupations are projected to decline between 2018 and 2028,” a trend that is bound to make it more challenging for employers to hire sales associates. It is safe to say that this shortage will greatly impact the economy. The future of retail is already in question and the dearth of salespeople will only compound the issues faced by retailers in the future.   

It seems that the projections for most of the next decade are not optimistic. Sales jobs are projected to show little or no change from 2021 to 2031, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), a rate slower than the national average for all jobs. One client who has been in business for many years lamented about the extreme uncertainty when it comes to hiring salespeople. “It isn’t as if there is a pool of qualified candidates waiting to take these jobs,” he says. “Even when I finally do hire someone, I have to pray every day that they have the smarts to perform their job properly.” He admits that he is most concerned that his company will be well represented by the new salespeople.

People who are good at sales drive the market and the business they work for to success. Opting for a career in sales makes sense. Jobs in sales are always in high demand, as there is a consistent need for salespeople in every industry. Salespeople with experience can earn six figures and beyond with some becoming extremely wealthy. But it takes a great deal of patience and persistence to be successful. The experts agree that sales are not for everyone. There is a good reason to go into sales, mostly because one can dictate the level of success, meaning the more one sells the more they can earn. There is no better example than real estate and automobile salespeople who have the potential of earning serious money.

It is said that the greatest automobile salesman of all time in the US was Joseph Samuel Girard. He holds the Guinness World Record for being the most successful  salesman in the world. Girard sold 13,001 cars at a Chevrolet dealership between 1963 and 1978, and was recognized by the Guinness Book of World Records as the seller of the most cars in a year (1,425 in 1973)

What Girard did differently that helped him set records in selling is a good lesson for anyone involved in sales. He would never lie to the customers which gave him impeccable trust and credibility. Very importantly, he would stay in touch with them after the sales and they became a major source for referrals. He was more focused on the relationship than reinforcing his sales pitch. In other words, when it came to the paperwork, he would turn it over to subordinates so that he could concentrate on the next sale. 

The number one imperative for a salesperson is to make the customer feel that they are the only customer. This applies to retail sales as well. Store personnel are often under pressure with many customers waiting to be served. A customer who requires a lot of time may cause the salesperson to ultimately lose that customer. Here is what one sales specialist recommended: Tell the customer as follows: “As you can see the store is rather busy right now. I would like to give you my full attention. Could we make an appointment so that I can give you the attention you deserve.” Usually, said the expert, the customer will let you know whether there is an urgency to their purchase, or they would have the patience to get that special care. 

The mark of a good salesperson is to quickly assess the customer and tailor the sales pitch. I recall an old-time owner of a Lower East Side men’s clothing store who would greet every customer with a special greeting. If it was a chosson, he would immediately say, “Let’s make you the best dressed chosson on the planet.” 

All the experts agree that customer care should be the number one concern of salespeople. It is important for the salesperson to know the product they sell well and to appear self-confident. They should always appear to be fresh and ready to sell. One expert advice never to appear tired or less than prepared to give the customer the full attention, such as constantly looking at a cellphone. Obviously, being a people’s person is a must but most importantly is to be a good listener. 

Many businesspeople like to promote from within, one article on hiring salesmen noted. The reason is that these people tend to know the company well and as a result turn out to be good salespeople. The key challenge is to motivate people who are used to working at a specific job and are edgy about taking on a job which frankly is far more responsible in many ways. 

Meanwhile, the business world seems very much concerned where the next generation of salespeople will come from, so much so that advertising for sales personnel in major publications has dropped dramatically. Ariel seems to have resigned himself to making do with his two salesmen and  hoping that somehow someone will come along to take on the mantle of sales in his company.

Elkie’s father who founded the store in the ‘90’s told her that he could remember “maybe one or two thefts a year.” How things changed. You probably noticed that many commonly used items are now routinely locked in a showcase even such benign products like deodorant, soap, and even toothpaste.  Last year a CVS official told Congress shoplifting was up 300 percent over pre-pandemic figures.  Walmart’s CEO Doug McMillon warned that spiking theft could lead to higher prices and/or store closures. Retail theft reports were up 52 percent over 2021 in Philadelphia last year; in New York City, they rose 45 percent. Nearly a third of all shoplifting arrests in New York City in 2022 involved just 327 people who were arrested and re-arrested more than 6,000 times, police say. 

It appears that many of these thieves have made a “business” out of their shoplifting. After they steal the goods, they simply resell on-line, even on Amazon. A bill passed in Congress now requires the large on-line retailer to request tax ID information. Last year the Prosecutors Alliance of California estimated that $500 billion worth of stolen or counterfeit goods are sold every year through online marketplaces. 

The net effect of this epidemic is that it is forcing many stores to close since the losses are staggering and unsustainable. It is not only drug and beauty aid stores that are being targeted by the thieves, but even food establishments. Whole Foods shuttered a San Francisco store that had been repeatedly hit by gangs of thieves, citing fear for staffers’ safety. 

The obvious answer is to improve security. Indeed, Elkie invested in sensors and sensor removing equipment that trigger an alarm. She is still traumatized by the fact that it could happen in a “safe” neighborhood like hers. Others are investing in security guards and in showcases that are alarmed. Many pharmacies now even put basic items like mouthwash  behind locked plexiglass, which cuts theft at the expense of actual sales. Chains like Best Buy are locking up a growing number of items, and Home Depot and Lowe’s have introduced power tools that won’t work until they’re activated at the register. 

But even the improved security has not halted the shoplifting and in many cases has prompted criminals to use violence. Safeway says it now sees regular customers walking out with unpaid items. “Some people think: Why should I pay if others are not?” Prosecutors in New York last year seized nearly $4 million in stolen goods from Roni Rubinov, a 42-year-old they said worked from a midtown office, sending dozens of “boosters” out to steal from stores such as CVS and Sephora, giving them lists of desired items. 

The impact on business is enormous. Not only do businesses lose large amounts of money from the theft but they have to spend significantly to secure the items. Elkie said that her store could not afford the $42,000 for a permanent security guard. In addition, the stores are forced to raise prices and in an age where they face stiff competition from on-line sites, they become far less competitive on the street.  It is estimated that retail theft costs federal and state governments nearly $15 billion in lost personal and business tax revenues, not including the lost sales taxes. 

An interesting side note is the fact that stores like Elkie’s keep incidents of theft quiet. The last thing they want in the post-Covid era is to lose more customers because of a perception of not being safe. 

The repercussions to the economy of the growing shoplifting crisis is beyond description. If you add to this fiasco the fallout from closed stores, the impact on the economy is as devastating as a depression. Imagine that a giant like Walmart succumbing to this widespread malaise. It is set to close all remaining locations in a major U.S. city following devastating levels of retail theft. Walmart closed its final two stores in Portland, Oregon, in March due to the thefts and disappointing performance, leaving around 600 people without jobs, another terrible result from this epidemic. Major retailers in the US have been forced to shut down stores due to millions of dollars in losses as rampant theft plagues big box stores across the country. 

Stores like Target, Macy’s and Best Buy,  are also considering closing stores. Target’s CFO said the company expected retail thefts to reach $600 million by the end of the year and it doubts whether it could ever make up for the losses. In 2021 retailers lost a combined $94.5 billion due to product theft. Modern technology may also be a culprit in the rising epidemic. Self-checkouts have made it easier for people to walk out without paying for items. Some retailers say that they have also been plagued by fraudulent sales due to identity theft. 

Clearly, it behooves Congress and law enforcement to put an end to this epidemic. Today in most big cities, culprits receive only a slap on the wrist or nothing, quite an insignificant price to pay for what has turned out to be a lucrative business. The shoplifter of 2023 is unlike the shoplifter of even a decade ago who simply stole because they could not afford to pay for the item. Now it is society that cannot afford to let this epidemic continue. 

On the flip side are many Democratic legislators who argue that this latest wave of migrants is America at its best, extending humanitarian assistance to people whose only desire is to  seek economic opportunity and real freedom. They went through a great deal just to get here and now all they wish for is to provide for their families. So why all the criticism?

There is, according to some, a very positive aspect to this latest wave, one that has broad implications for our economy. More than 7,600 H-2A visas (allows U.S. employers  who meet specific regulatory requirements to bring foreign nationals to the United States to fill temporary agricultural jobs) were issued in New York State last year alone and an additional 4,579 workers were brought in under a related H-2B visa.  As New York’s economy continues to improve — unemployment in the state dipped below 4% last year — the need for migrant workers has increased. 

Most migrants have said that they were coming, eager to find work; they can become eligible to work legally if they apply for asylum. The process can take a long time, however, so many are finding jobs to support themselves in the underground economy instead. In 2022, reported the New York Times, 22,000 migrants arrived in New York City from April through December, many of them Venezuelans fleeing economic and political chaos in their home country. Mayor Adams actually declared a state of emergency as the city’s shelters started buckling under the influx of migrants. The city erected a tent encampment near a shelter on Randall’s Island to provide housing to everyone. New York says that these migrants are seldomly self-sufficient in the short-term and heavily tax the city’s health care and social service systems. 

About 3.5 million workers are “missing” from the workforce, according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. That is how much bigger the labor force would be if the number of people working or looking for work returned to pre-pandemic levels. But as it is, there are more openings than job seekers. At first glance, the migrants might be a perfect fit to fill some of these jobs. 

Many construction companies are desperate for these migrant workers. But big construction projects require workers to present OSHA (Occupational Safety and Health Administration) certificates, which obviously the migrants do not have. The rules may, however,  be more blurry for private residences, said Stephen Handlik, a licensed site superintendent who works for the Rinaldi Group, a construction management company. That is how many migrants find a loophole to work in construction, which they are very good at. They are also needed as office clerks, housekeepers, caregivers like home care workers, agriculture, and hospitality – which are reliant on immigrant workers. Those types of industries had higher rates of unfilled jobs last year – adding to existing labor shortages, according to UC Davis research. There are currently 10.3 million open jobs in the US – 377,000 in construction and 1.6 million in hospitality. That number has been on the rise in recent months.

It is interesting to note that economic experts do not see the migrants as a quick fix. According to a recent podcast, when Jose crossed the Mexican border with his wife and three young kids, he immediately tended to some of the health problems of his wife and 3-year-old son. He registered in a migrant program to learn English. In other words, said this expert on a podcast, Jose may not be ready for a real job for at least ten months or more. 

There are many industries like construction that face chronic shortages over the next decade, predict the experts.  The restaurant industry has borne the brunt of the downturn in immigration. Slower service, restaurants closed for lunch, higher prices – are all a result of labor shortages. And the restaurant industry is on track to grow by 14% in the next decade – while the US-born workforce is expected to grow by just 10%, according to the National Restaurant Association. There will be more restaurant jobs than the US workforce can fill. Sixty percent of restaurant operators are facing staffing shortages limiting their operating capacity, according to the National Restaurant Association.

Congress is not oblivious to the fact that the country desperately needs more workers.  Legislation like, “The Essential Workers for Economic Advancement Act,” was introduced in the House earlier this year. The law would create a new visa program for workers in industries like hospitality. “Immigration reform is an economic necessity for the restaurant industry,” said Sean Kennedy, EVP of Public Affairs at the National Restaurant Association. 

While migrants may not be the answer in some industries, including restaurants, they could be the solution for such jobs as construction, housekeeping, and home care. This fact worries many in the halls of legislators. They are concerned that opting for reform in immigration policy will somehow address the labor shortage with a broad brush squeezing some industries out of a possible solution. 

One immigration expert I corresponded with wrote to me: “The US needs to deal with the migrants like they have with every generation of immigrants, to educate, train and care for them in the short run with an eye to making them self-sufficient within a short period of time.” The question then emerges as to what the numbers should be for migrants admitted to this country.” The expert says that it should be based on the traditional litmus test of basing criteria on skills and familial ties. 

Irrespective of which view one adopts, the migrant debacle is far from a black and white issue. Mayor Adams may be right that the city does not have the resources to cope with the large influx which may mean that a city like New York should be receiving more federal aid, specifically earmarked for absorbing the migrants. Industries that could use the migrant workers should be given leeway in expediting the migrants ability to work. One thing is certain: the migrant issue needs more debate and action from Congress. 

As an aside, many migrants are filling many jobs in our neighborhoods including at popular eating establishments. 

With the support of her family, including some financial help, she created a company name. Next she proceeded to perfect the product, even renting time at a commercial kitchen to continue testing her products, which she ultimately made in 5 flavors. Meanwhile, she hired a consultant to help her find a co-packer and then it was on to a lab to provide her with the information for the ingredient panel and a marketing consultant to plan her strategy for getting her products on bakery and grocery shelves. Finally, she met with several potential distributors.

One consultant asked her a key question that experts say is essential to answer before proceeding with a new idea. What problem will your product solve? “Taste,” she instinctively answered, meaning that the blend of flavors she came up with will solve the taste problem. This is in line with the advice of most experts that a new idea or product must solve a problem to be successful. Amazon, for instance, solved how e-commerce was, at one time, expensive and inconvenient. Today, it has more customers (and sales) than its brick-and-mortar competition. One business article succinctly said: “How will your idea or product make life better for the people who will use it?” 

So, what is Amazon’s advice for testing a new product? “You should talk [to] and/or survey at least 50 potential customers to see if they identify with the problem the same way you do,” said Wayde Gilchrist, a senior technical manager at Amazon. “In other words, you need to find out if this is a real problem for a majority of your target market or just a few.” While she did not test her product with 50 people, she did offer it for tasting to at least 20, including a big kiddush in her shul. 

Faygie would be happy to know that people who enjoy baking can now benefit from one of the best new products in 2022, GE’s Smart Mixer. It features Auto Sense, built-in smart scale, voice-control capabilities, guided recipes and more. Says GE: “Our powerful stand mixer blends classic features with smart technology so you can master the most complex recipes with confidence. It will help you enjoy baking like never before.”

Technology continues to be a leading category of new products and ideas. Although there may not be any new revolutionary phone on the market, for example, innovators have turned their attention to aids and auxiliary products that help use a phone. Take for example OtterGrip, which makes it easier to hold a cellphone. This mobile marvel has its own grip that pulls out and presses flat in place, making it hand friendly. Says the manufacturer: “And since we built in an array of magnets, it’s MagSafe ready. OtterGrip is a fusion of the practical and the magical, a smart surprise that gives you a deeper connection with your device.” These products, including special luxury cases, have developed a life of their own.

Identifying the market, say the experts, is another essential exercise as part of the necessary research prior to successfully introducing an idea or product. The professional baker advised Faygie that she should focus on ages 30-50, coffee drinkers, and people who enjoy her special flavors. He also suggested a focus on coffee shops. Good research is crucial and can avoid many problems later. 

Many people with a good concept or product have an idea how to finance the initial phase of starting a business. In Faygie’s case, her family put up the money for the attorney to start the business and for the consultants. Going forward, she wasn’t sure whether she would consider a working partner or simply manage the business by herself and raise more capital by finding a “silent” investor. This can be a challenging question for most entrepreneurs. 

Paul Graham, co-founder of the startup incubator Y Combinator, said that having business partners has several benefits, especially when first starting out. “They can act as support, a sounding board for your ideas, and provide evidence to others that you actually have a good idea.” Faygie decided against taking in a partner especially since at least two of the co-packers she was considering seemed to want to help her and were only too anxious to volunteer advice. Here is some of the advice of professional consultants:

• Testing your business idea is key to seeing if it’s a viable business model.
• Don’t rush into launching a product without careful consideration and planning. If it fails, it could be a waste of critical resources.
• Building a prototype and creating a marketing plan can help determine whether or not an idea has potential.

“Although you’re no doubt excited about your new business idea, you might want to wait a while before fleshing out a potential idea,” said Greg Isenberg, CEO of product design agency Late Checkout. “After I’ve gone through the process of writing down a bunch of ideas, I don’t like to rush into building a business plan or recruiting the team,” Isenberg said. “I like to wait a few weeks [to] see which ideas really stick with me.” Isenberg said he only moves forward if he has a burning feeling that the world genuinely needs his idea.

“Identify people in that target [audience] you know to be skeptical and critical,” said Chip Bell, founder of business consultancy firm The Chip Bell Group. “These people could be irate customers from previous encounters or friends who always take the glass-half-empty perspective.”

The upshot of all the advice: Don’t go into a new business half-baked!

Suddenly panic! In a very short period of time, depositors withdrew more than $100 billion, spooking the FDIC! The Feds moved in and sold it to JPMorgan Chase in exchange for taking over $173 billion of loans, $30 billion of securities, and $92 billion of deposits. If you had insured or uninsured money in First Republic accounts, your funds are now safe and managed by JPMorgan Chase.

This is not the first time that panic has been used to describe the collapse of banks. Over a century ago, “the Bank Panic of 1907” was a short-lived banking and financial crisis in the U.S. Without a central bank to fall back on, leading financiers (most notably J.P. Morgan) stepped in and put their own money on the line to bail out the surviving Wall Street banks and other financial institutions. This event gave impetus to plans to impose more government oversight and public responsibility to bail out financial markets, leading to the creation of the Federal Reserve System a few years later. The Fed had three main purposes: to serve as a lender of last resort, to serve as a fiscal agent for the U.S. government, and to act as a clearinghouse.

In the current panic crisis, First Republic, which became the second-largest bank to fail in U.S. history, lost $100 billion in deposits in March. A  group of America’s biggest banks came to its rescue with a $30 billion deposit. Those deposits are supposed to be repaid, JPMorgan said.

In the meantime, while First Republic was losing depositors, many of the bank’s clients moved their money to JPMorgan believing that it was a much safer bank. In fact, it got about $50 billion in new deposits from panicky customers looking to move their money to a too-big-to-fail bank. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon played a pivotal role in earlier efforts to rescue First Republic Bank by raising money from his own bank and others.  The big banks feared that a collapse of First Republic would further erode confidence in the US banking system which would only come back to bite them. 

Chase was not the only bank bidding for First Republic. Regional banks like PNC Financial Services Group, Citizens Financial Group, and Fifth Third Bancorp also submitted bids to the FDIC.  But the FDIC decided that JPMorgan would be the best suitor.

“This is the last stages of that initial panic. First Republic’s problems started as a result of SVB and Signature,” said Steven Kelly, a senior researcher at the Yale Program on Financial Stability. “This isn’t the story of 2008, where one bank went down and investors focused on the next biggest bank, which would wobble.”

The question still remains why. Why was there panic in the first place and why did people rush to withdraw their money from the First Republic? Several banking experts I spoke to felt that this was a mad rush by the richest. 

They explained the banking fiasco this way. The perception was that banks like Silicon Valley and Signature have a very wealthy clientele. When those banks failed, there was a great deal of uncertainty as to what degree the Federal insurance would kick in. It was particularly worrisome for the wealthy clients who knew that the standard deposit insurance coverage limit is $250,000 per depositor, per FDIC-insured bank, per ownership category. Deposits held in different ownership categories are separately insured, up to at least $250,000, even if held at the same bank. 

For the California bigwigs who banked at either Silicon Valley or First Republic the safety of their rather large bank accounts became a major issue. When both Silicon Valley and Signature collapsed it set off alarm bells in many multi-million-dollar homes in California that their money may no longer be safe. They began to withdraw money from the First Republic in favor of larger, more secure banks. When this became a movement they not only took their money out of the First Republic but in a sense took the bank with them. Ironically, it turned out that both those who withdrew and those who stayed put ended up with the same institution JPMorgan. 

The experts now believe that the First Republic seizure was the last of the crumbling banks with the public learning some valuable lessons. The FDIC insurance of $250,000 is an absolute despite some rumblings of late of a possible increase. Financial experts advise that to safeguard deposits that are greater than $250,000 depositors should open accounts at multiple banks, with FDIC insurance, of course. 

In the recent bank failings, the FDIC managed to find institutions who took over deposits thus making sure that the customer continues to receive the services and the protection. But that does not mean that it will be an automatic in the future if a bank fails. The experts still counsel us to be prudent and make sure that our hard-earned money is protected. Banking customers of the failed banks told many stories of the sleepless nights they had until they learned that their money was safe. Greg Richardson told an interviewer: “I can’t describe the angst that both my wife and I had when we heard that First Republic was shaky.” 

For most people keeping money in an FDIC insured bank is still the best option especially with the current slowly creeping up interest rates. But at the same time, it is important to know the insurance limitations and not to rely on a magical bailout which may not materialize. One bank executive summed it up this way: “It’s never good to see banks go down but the three failed banks taught many Americans how to bank safely. We need a smoke alarm to smell trouble but even better is to take initial steps to protect ourselves.” Well said!

Retail appeared to have rebounded significantly in 2022 in major Jewish communities like Brooklyn, Monsey and Lakewood. While it is true that retail in those communities target a specific audience with special needs, the fact that people are once again enjoying the shopping experience is a good omen for retail in those communities. Retailers in those areas are very optimistic due to population growth and the availability of more disposable income. They are investing into their stores as can be plainly seen driving through those commercial areas. They are increasingly advertising in major Jewish publications and traffic on those streets is on the increase. 

On the flip side of the upswing in retail was the recent news that Bath & Beyond, one of the original big box retailers, filed for bankruptcy and will close all its stores nationwide. The retailer is planning to have all its 360 locations, including its 41 California locations, closed by June 30^th. They are not alone. One tally finds that as many as 2,119 stores are set to close across the US in 2023. For example, in addition to Bed Bath & Beyond, Foot Locker is shutting  545 stores across two brands by 2026 as part of a shift away from shopping malls, which the retailer believes is no longer a major source of shopping.

The projected store closings in 2023 are a far cry from the record number of shuttered stores  in 2020, the COVID year. It is estimated that 12,200 stores closed that year with the number dropping to 5,083 in 2021. When compared to the projections of 2023 of 2119 closings, there is most certainly a downward trend, and a good reason for optimism that retail will have a robust recovery in the coming years.

Flipping through the business pages one gets the impression that 2023 is looking up for the retail sector with an influx of new store openings. Discount chain store Five Below plans to open 200 new stores – the most aggressive expansion plan in the company’s history. It seems that discount stores in general are on the rise, with Dollar General and Family Dollar also reporting new store openings this year. Sam’s Club is set to open 30 new stores in the next couple of years. It is possible that the discount stores face less competition from on-line commerce. In addition, the NRF predicts that smaller footprint stores will flourish as retailers experiment with new formats. Some of the retailers that are experiencing success with their smaller format stores include DSW, Target, and Barnes and Noble. So, while opening large box stores may be passe for now, the brands will continue to be omnipresent in the lives of millions of Americans, albeit in smaller stores. 

In addition to smaller footprint stores, other retailers are experimenting with new and creative models. FAO Schwarz, which closed its iconic store on Fifth Avenue is looking to bring its line of toys to a broader audience by partnering with Target. Its nationwide stores and website target.com are set to sell more than 120 FAO Schwarz toys as part of a multiyear agreement. Target also plans to sell a collection of nostalgic toys priced under $25 to celebrate FAO Schwarz’s 160th anniversary, including a Hot Wheels collector set, commemorative Teddy Bear, and more. There is also a great deal of co-branding where two well-known brands co-locate, cutting expenses but sharing the customer base. 

Traditional retail is becoming increasingly volatile and challenged as a business model. Brick-and-mortar has shifted to online, while online is shifting into pop-up storefronts. Virtual stores in subway platforms and airports are offering new levels of convenience for harried commuters. These stores are, of course, much smaller than their original models but they still manage to keep their brands in front of their consumer base in any case. These pop-up stores are also popular in many large buildings in Manhattan and in other major cities. 

One retail expert summed up the latest retail trends this way: “Retail has always adapted to the environment it operates in. There was a time when retail was from the back of a wagon drawn by horses, then there were stalls on a busy thoroughfare and then most notably the marketplace, which was the forerunner of today’s mall.” He noted that such concepts as “Farmer’s Market” still exist today as do pop-up markets in many areas. 

The big unknown in the retail equation is the mall which was one of the primary victims of COVID. Its recovery has been far slower than commercial strips in local neighborhoods. The mall, which relies on healthy traffic, saw that movement slow considerably. They were also victim to on-line as many of the mall stores shifted their emphasis to on-line. Interestingly, there was also an increase in crime in the malls in the last few years which further discouraged traffic. 

It’s unlikely that shopping malls will become obsolete. While the rise of online shopping has had an impact on mall traffic, malls are still popular places to shop, and many people enjoy the experience of going to the mall. Mall managers realized that they will have to present  themselves as more than shopping. It is common for many of them to feature entertainment, recreation, and special events. American Dream in New Jersey is a good example of a mall that is a major family attraction in addition to shopping.