(Click on the image for a better view. It will open in a new window. Depending on your browser, you may want to click the image in the new window to expand it to its full size, otherwise the quality may look diminished, like the preview above.)

1. long @ 160.50 - strong line
Including the June 3rd bounce, that’s 3 bounces within 25 pips of this line in the last 5 weeks. It’s very good and while price may not get there this week, I look forward to taking a trade should it break in the near future.

2. long @ 155.33 - average line
I do not intend to take this one since it’s not my typical type of line, but some more adventurous soul might want to take a crack at it. However, I will keep an eye on it as perhaps a future reference point should another one of this type of reversal develop.

3. short @ 146.76 - strong line
This one goes back to May 21st, where it also bounced right off that line. No doubt about this one.

4. long @ 152.35 - strong line
This one should also be self-explanatory. Long move up, strong move down.

As usual, I will not take a trade on GBP/JPY if it breaks before more or less London opening. Starting at 2am EST (6am GMT), it’s a judgment call, but I prefer the London opening as my week’s starting point.

Good luck this week and let’s hope this is the beginning of a good streak. I think I deserve it. hehehe

USD/CAD

1. Long @ 1.1653 (triggered already, but too early at the beginning of Monday’s session. As I said before, I don’t trade USD/CAD until much closer to the New York opening Monday morning)

2. Short @ 1.1560 (average line, not the biggest move down, but I’m used to GBP/JPY’s larger move )

3. Short @ 1.1436 (strong line, but if you can monitor this one, keep an eye on 1.1416, you never know if it stalls the move down)

That’s it for now. Happy trading.

So, where does that leave me? I won’t lie, it’s very tough on the psyche and the confidence right now. While I don’t have years and years of trading under my belt, this is still by far the toughest time I’ve had as a trader, ever. Almost all my profits from March and April have disappeared during May and June. It’s not like I’m doing anything different, I’m approaching things pretty much the same way I have for the last year and a half. I even considered (albeit briefly) to simply throw in the towel and take an extended leave of absence from trading. In my defense, I was quite under the weather at that particular moment (June 17), lacking sleep and seeing what was yet another loss at that moment REALLY pissed me off. Of course, after a few hours of sleep (finally), I realized how foolish I was being.

So, again, where does that leave me? Nowhere new, really. However, there are 3 things I will start to pay more attention to:

1. Reversals - I know I don’t trade those often (almost never, actually). The main reason is because I often can’t watch my charts to see those reversals form in the first place. Of the six 4h candles each day (start time, GMT time):

0:00: I am in the middle of my work shift. Unless I’m quite lucky, there’s no way I can catch this one. Luckily, this one has the second-lowest volume, and not many trades get triggered by this one.

4:00: I am just getting off work at that time, and get home about half an hour later. So unless the move for the reversal happens early in this candle, I can catch it.

8:00: I go to bed about an hour and a half after the start of this one. This still gives me the option to trade the reversal using orders. I still have to develop a technique for this (such as the cushion), but it can be done.

12:00: Forget about it. I’m sleeping the entire duration of this candle, and unfortunately, this is the busiest one.

16:00: Similar to the 4:00 candle, if the move doesn’t happen too early in this one, I can catch the reversal formation and take the appropriate action(s). I do leave for work before it closes though.

20:00: Just like the 0:00, there’s no way I can catch this one since I’m at work, but since this is the lowest-volume candle, it’s not that big of a deal.

All this to say that I intend to start looking for reversal formations whenever I can catch them. However, still being less than confident about it, I will trade those reversals on my “disposable”, micro lots Oanda account rather than my main GFT account, at least for the time being.

2. When to close trades - It goes with the reversals, and it’s something which, for some reason, I never paid attention to, but if I’m in a trade near the closing of a 4h candle, and that 4h candle ends up closing in a reversal pattern, I will start to pay close attention (whenever I can monitor the trade) to what happens next and won’t hesitate to close the trade prematurely out of precaution.

3. Support & Resistance (S&R) lines - For many newer people, all you have seen so far is the trading of scalp lines. This was due to the regular S&R lines being temporarily put aside during these rough economic times. I will start to look more closely at (and get used once again to using) possible S&R lines.

So, for those that have not given up on Nick, myself and this method in general, there are some fairly significant changes coming, even though those changes are not changes per se, but simply the reinstating of some parts of this method that I had stopped using, or never started using until now.

Sorry for the long rant. I hope I didn’t lose too many readers here. The analysis will be posted later this evening.

1. Long @ 1.1635
2. Short @ 1.1442 (see note below)
3. Short @ 1.1219

Note: Some may wonder about this line when they see the 1.1416 level not too far below. However, the 1.1416 didn’t form nicely and looks more like a random spike that formed during a busy US news time frame. On the other hand, the 1.1442 level formed quite properly and I trust it more.

That’s it for now. Good luck this week.

On that cheerful note, I want to announce that for the time being, I am suspending my trading of GBP/JPY. It is just not behaving normally lately, so I will only trade USD/CAD until further notice.

GPY/JPY: (targets: 50 pips S/L and T/P)
1. Long @ 160.36 (while not officially a double bounce, it bounced pretty much at the same level as the June 3rd candle. This did end up as a negative trade when it broke a week later, though. hahaha)

2. Short @ 154.89 (beautiful double-bounce. I am looking forward to this one)

- no trade @ 159.59 long (too close to the 160.36 line)

USD/CAD: (targets: 35 pips S/L and T/P)
1. Short @ 1.1219 (not an exact double bounce since the candle last week was 20 pips away, but close enough)
2. Short @ 1.0927 (again, not an exact double-bounce, but 13 pips away for the second drop is close enough)

- no trade @ 1.1447 long (I just don’t like the formation enough. it might be considered a weak-average line in my opinion)

Good luck this week.

Anyway, my bad stretch continues, and so I can only hope that the worst my bad string, the better the good one down the road.

I am still kinda MIA, but I am looking at my charts now. I am just a little busy with other things right now.

I should also mention that I did not take the 1.1289 break on USD/CAD, since it broke too early on Monday. Those who took it and held it for close to 4 hours (a big risk) got rewarded for it.

I am adding these scalp lines:

GBP/JPY:

- long @ 160.28 (if you can monitor this trade, you may want to keep an eye out for the 160.45/50 level)
- short @ 156.43

USD/CAD:

- long @ 1.1374 (5x 4h candles bouncing at, or very close to that level)
- short @ 1.1220

As for the analysis, there’s not much to look at right now.

GBP/JPY:

1. Short @ 154.90

That’s it. Some may intend to trade the yearly high, but not me. I don’t usually like those unless they are a clear, clean scalp formation, and the 162.55 just doesn’t do it for me.

USD/CAD:

1. Long @ 1.1290
2. Short @ 1.0926 (this one was more or less confirmed by 2 close-enough bounces last week)
3. Short @ 1.0783 (2 bounces are better than 1 )

Just like last week, I don’t intend to start trading this pair until we get closer to the opening of the North American markets. That’s where most of the action is for USD/CAD, and so there may not always be enough momentum to carry breakouts this early in the European/British session (as we saw last week).

That’s it for now. I will post any additional lines that form through the week, and I still hope to catch up on those questions. Keep ‘em coming if you have any. I will get to it… eventually.