Metalhawk's Blog

Weekly stats updated

Metalhawk — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 22:36:32 +0000

It’s now up to date until the first week of November. A quick look down the weeks shows a nice reversal: crappy May/June/July, stable and uneventful August/September, and a good October. I seriously hope that’s a sign the worst is over and it’s finally time to make some of those pips back.

Lines for the week of Nov. 8, 2009

Metalhawk — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 22:14:39 +0000

First, a few thoughts about last week. Price didn’t move much last week, and I didn’t end up taking any trade. ~~I know Nick had a line at 146.75 or so, but I didn’t like it. I never felt there had been enough of an up-move before price came back down. As a result, it would have been a losing trade.~~ An error with my charting broker meant that the early spike in the Nov. 1 session wasn’t included. There was no potential bad trade last week.

On the other hand, because I was at work, I missed on a chance for a beautiful reversal trade. The Nov. 4, 16:00 GMT candle was as good of a reversal signal as you can get. If I could have seen it, I would have entered around 149.90 or so. The bottom of the reversal candle was about 150.15, so I would have set the entry a little below that. But with the 150.00 level nearby, I would have taken it in consideration and given it some respect, hence the reason for the 149.90 short entry.

Also, I had a line at 147.65, but since it got broken late on Friday, as usual with Fridays, I didn’t take it.

On to this week. On the long side, I intend to enter on a break of the 153.20 line and the 151.70 line. As for the short side, the only line I have right now is last week’s low of ~~146.35~~ 145.75.As usual, I will only enter a trade outside of the New York session and will aim for 80 pips profit, with a 70 pips stop loss.

Good luck this week. (and thank you to Ren for pointing out the problem with my short entry line.)

This week’s update

Metalhawk — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 17:24:16 +0000

No trade yet, but price is approaching a scalp line at 153.20, a line that has also shown some resistance in early September. Other than that, a new line has been added at 147.65.

However, it’s not likely I will take any of those trades since I do not trade the NY session or Fridays. Cheers.

150.35 closed for profit

Metalhawk — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 17:07:19 +0000

+80 pips on this one. I sure as hell hope you all got it too…

Lines for the week of October 18, 2009

Metalhawk — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 04:10:10 +0000

I only have 2 lines so far this week: long @ 150.35 and short @ 139.68, which bounced nicely (well, crossed by 3 or 4 pips before reversing) off the existing line we had there. While last week was nice for the trade we got, it was too one-directional. No scalp lines formed at all because of that.

Good luck.

144.50 closed for profit

Metalhawk — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 08:29:23 +0000

Not sure why, but I decided to close it for “only” 50 pips profit. Maybe it was a bad feeling I had, but whatever. 50 pips is still 50 pips. And now, due to the distance of both lines that are next in line (150.35 long & 139.70 short), I don’t see any other breakout trade this week.

edit: I just realized that this is the first time since April/May that I have 2 profitable weeks in a row. Took long enough.

140.80 close for profits

Metalhawk — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 09:37:35 +0000

+50 pips on that one. I usually aim for 80 now, but I’m off to bed and price has been hesitating a lot in this area tonight, so I took my profits and ran.

Also, I’ve been experimenting with fellow Forex4noobs blogger Gus’ Monday-breakout method. I am not using the same targets he is, but I closed for 130 pips profits this week. I will make a more in-depth post about this in the future.

I realize I didn’t post my lines for this week, but they lined up exactly with Nick’s. So that’s 144.50 long, 140.80 short (now taken) and 139.70 short. As usual, if it breaks during New York, I do not trade it.

Cheers.

Analysis for the week of September 27, 2009

Metalhawk — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 08:11:26 +0000

You know the old saying: hindsight is always 20/20. I mentioned last week that I would be keeping an eye on the 148.00 level, waiting for a bigger move up before using it as a scalp line. What I should have taken in consideration is that before the major drop in price, GBP/JPY had been rather tame for the previous 2 weeks. So under those circumstances, the 225+ pips reversal could have been considered as good enough. Ah well.

So this week, I still keep an eye on 151.70 long if price gets back in that area, which is rather unlikely. I will also take a long at 150.35, but with one small caveat: look out for the 151.20 level. Some resistance could be experienced there. So of price hesitates too long there, you might want to take your profits and run, just in case.

On the down side, I will take a short @ 139.70. It’s a little risky, but after last week’s (and this week’s first candle) drop, I feel that if it breaks that line, it could re-activate last week’s sell-off. That’s my take on it, so don’t take that as gospel.

Good luck to you all.

Another boring week

Metalhawk — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 18:05:25 +0000

Hi folks. Not much happening again this week. I am keeping an eye on the 148.00 level, which could become a scalp line if price can push higher for a while. Other than that, long @ 151.70 and long @ 153.60 seem to be the only other worthwhile lines at the moment.

Let’s hope for some movement soon…

I was distracted

Metalhawk — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 08:45:00 +0000

Sorry for the lack of analysis of comments this week, but my mind was elsewhere for a bit, and since it looked like a boring week at first, I figured that was no big problem, since last week’s lines were basically the ones in play again this week. I did end up taking the 149.00 short break, for a loss of 70 pips.

Let’s hope for better results next week (how often have we said that this year )