Miami Heat Index

FUCK BEASLEY

2015-03-07T19:21:00.000-05:00

Beasley says he “hit a brain cramp” on last play.
— Joseph Goodman (@JoeGoodmanJr) March 7, 2015

Once again, Michael Beasley's stupidity cost the HEAT a chance to win a basketball game.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Not only did Beasley fail to get a shot off in 1.3 seconds during the last play against the Wizards, but he was also the second least-productive HEAT player in the game. The least productive? His former teammate from Kansas State University, Henry Bill Walker.

Beasley reduced the HEAT's chance of winning the game against the Wizards by 1% with 13 points on 13 shots, 2 turnovers and 1 foul in 22 minutes. Beasley was the least productive HEAT player in the 1st half. He reduced the team's chance of winning by 14% with 0-3 shooting, 1 turnover and 1 foul in 8.5 minutes of playing time. He began to make up for that in 4th quarter by increasing the team's chance of winning by 11% with 13 points on 10 shots before his idiotic failure to get a shot off cost the HEAT a chance to win the game with 1.3 seconds left.

Walker reduced the HEAT's chance of winning the game by 12% with 8 points, 9 bricks, 1 turnover and 4 fouls in 32.6 minutes.

The HEAT trailed by 35 points in the 3rd quarter. After the team decreased its chance of winning by 27% in the 1st half, Shabazz Napier (increased team's chance of winning by 19% in 3rd quarter) and Goran Dragic (increased team's chance of winning by 13% in 3rd quarter) led the comeback to get the lead down to 15 points by the end of the 3rd quarter and increased the HEAT's chance of winning to 18% - a remarkable 44% turnaround.

The most productive HEAT players in the game were James Ennis and Napier. Ennis increased the HEAT's chance of winning the game by 23% with 11 points on 3 shots and 6 free throws, 5 rebounds and 1 steal in 29 minutes. Napier increased the HEAT's chance of winning the game by 11% with 16 points on 10 shots and 2 free throws, 4-6 three-point shooting, 4 assists and 0 turnovers.

The spreadsheet below (@WAS-03062015) lists the estimated wins produced for the game against the Wizards.

Miami HEAT Analysis of First 20 Games

2014-12-09T11:47:00.000-05:00

Bad defense and too many turnovers left the Miami HEAT below 0.500 after the first 20 games. What will it take to get a better result in the next 20?

There are #4Factors to winning basketball games: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws.

The figure below shows where the HEAT rank in the 4 Factors on offense and defense after 20 games, according to basketball-reference.com.

It's plain to see the problem: the HEAT's strengths on offense are negated by their weaknesses on defense and vice versa.

The offense is top-5 in shooting efficiency, but the defense ranks 28th in opponent shooting efficiency. The offense is top-5 in getting points at the free throw line, but the defense is bottom-10 in giving up points at the free throw line.

The defense is top-5 in forcing turnovers, but the offense is in the bottom-10 for turning the ball over. The defense is average in rebounding, but the offense ranks 2nd-to-last in rebounding.

My HEAT rotation to put the team in the best position to win would be as follows: Starters - Chalmers, Wade, Deng, UD and Bosh; Reserves - Ennis, Williams, Hamilton, Cole. I would have the 2nd unit play Nolan Richardson's "40 minutes of hell" style w/ Ennis & Cole. Fullcourt press and let Williams and Hamilton launch threes. The HEAT played 'Rio, Wade, Deng, UD and Bosh for less than 1 minute together in the first 20 games, so Erik Spoelstra's got his work cut out for him to figure out the strategies and lineups to balance out the team's performance so they're not shooting themselves in the foot on both sides of the ball.

The tweets below identify which players were part of the problem in the first 20 games.

The table below shows the estimated wins produced from HEAT players' boxscore stats in the first 20 games. This Excel workbook lists the boxscores with estimated wins produced in each game this season.

**20-GAME HEAT SUMMARY**
PLAYER	GP	MIN	Est.WP48	EST WP
C Bosh	20	705.6	0.142	2.085
L Deng	18	558.9	0.179	2.082
D Wade	13	422.4	0.189	1.666
S Williams	20	514.3	0.112	1.197
M Chalmers	20	623.1	0.089	1.157
J Ennis	20	279.6	0.165	0.960
J Hamilton	10	111.8	0.085	0.197
N Cole	16	382.7	0.012	0.099
U Haslem	12	162.4	0.025	0.083
H Whiteside	2	3.4	-0.281	-0.020
A Dawkins	3	12.8	-0.260	-0.069
S Brown	5	88.7	-0.047	-0.086
C Andersen	9	142	-0.037	-0.110
D Granger	4	63.1	-0.133	-0.175
S Napier	20	466.2	-0.019	-0.185
J McRoberts	16	263	-0.036	-0.196

2015 NBA Season Predictions

2014-10-25T17:13:00.000-04:00

Predictions for the 2015 NBA season include a tougher season for the Miami HEAT with a smaller reward and absolute chaos in the Western Conference.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Cleveland Cavaliers (33-49 last season)

LeBron's bitchassness and Kevin Love's dickriding brought a bunch of wins from last season to one of the NBA's racist owners. The only thing that could keep the Cavs from the best record in the East would be if they turn out to be more Chandeliers than Cavaliers - physically or mentally.

2. Toronto Raptors (48-34 last season)

The Raptors added enough productive depth on the wing with Lou Williams and James Johnson to win 50 games if they stay healthy, but will Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross improve enough to get them into the 2nd round?

3. Chicago Bulls (48-34 last season)

I trust Derrick Rose about as much as Tom Thibodeau will trust his rookies this season. If Rose returns to a top 5 point guard, then the Bulls will be the second-best team in the East.

4. Miami HEAT (54-28 last season)

The HEAT lost 16 wins from last season this summer. The only teams that lost more were the Timberwolves and the Pacers after Paul George broke his leg. It will take an extraordinary effort for the HEAT to win the Southeast Division and get home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Dwyane Wade will need to maintain last season's production and efficiency while playing at least 1,000 more minutes. Chris Bosh will need to be twice as productive as last season while turning 31 years old in the 12th year of his career. Erik Spoelstra can't afford to make too many mistakes with the lineups because the margin of error for this team is razor thin. Pat Riley and Andy Elisburg will need to take advantage of any opportunity to improve the team when it presents itself. It won't be easy, but it can be done.

5. Charlotte Hornets (43-39 last season)

Can Lance Stephenson get them a division title? Will Marvin Williams be healthy enough to replace McRoberts? Can MKG be trusted to make a jumpshot? The Hornets should push the HEAT for the division title and the playoff rematch could be the beginning of an interesting rivalry.

6. Washington Wizards (44-38 last season)

Paul Pierce, Kris Humphries, Dejuan Blair and improved Otto Porter will not be enough to help John Wall and Marcin Gortat win the division.

7. Atlanta Hawks (38-44 last season)

Their whole season comes down to Al Horford's health. That's the difference between making and missing the playoffs.

8. Detroit Pistons (29-53 last season)

The Pistons quietly acquired more wins produced last season than every team except the Cavs this summer. If anybody can turn Jodie Meeks, Caron Butler, D.J. Augustin and that talented Pistons frontline into a playoff team, it's Stan Van Gundy. It would be interesting to see what he would come up with against the Cavs in the first round of the playoffs, too.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Houston Rockets (54-28 last season)

Trevor Ariza was a good signing for the Rockets and the importance of the players they lost is overrated. The Spurs are old and hurt, Kevin Durant's injured and the Clippers are coons. The Rockets should be able to fall out of a strip club and into a top-2 seed out west if they stay healthy.

2. San Antonio Spurs (62-20 last season)

Outside of the draft, the Spurs stood pat this offseason. If you're not moving forward, you're going backwards.

3. Portland Trailblazers (54-28 last season)

Durant's fractured foot plus replacing Mo Williams with Steve Blake should be enough for the Blazers to win their division and get home-court advantage in the 1st round of the playoffs. How far they go in the playoffs is up to Damian Lillard - who went from Rookie of the Year to All-Star just like Derrick Rose. Can he make the leap to MVP candidate and push the Blazers to the conference finals?

4. Golden State Warriors (51-31 last season)

Shaun Livingston was a nice improvement in the backcourt, but the Warriors' big plan seems to be hoping Klay Thompson become a max player. They may not get that lucky this season, but they will get lucky enough to win the Pacific Division thanks to the collapse of the LA Coons aka Clippers.

5. Phoenix Suns (48-34 last season)

If Isaiah Thomas doesn't bring the negativity and selfishness from Sacramento to the Suns, then he could have a shot at Sixth Man of the Year and keep Phoenix in a dogfight for the division title all season.

6. Dallas Mavericks (49-33 last season)

The Mavs made one more good move than bad moves. Tyson Chandler's health could get them home-court advantage in the playoffs if the Blazers, Warriors or Suns stumble.

7. New Orleans Pelicans (34-48 last season)

It all comes down to health, Anthony Davis' improvement and Monty Williams' coaching this season. I trust Davis to dominate and hope the other two factors come through. Anthony Davis kicking Tim Duncan's ass out of the playoffs would be a helluva story.

8. Oklahoma City Thunder (59-23 last season)

OKC lost 7 wins produced last season by telling their veteran wing players - Derek Fisher, Caron Butler and Thabo Sefolosha - to kick rocks. The Thunder will be going young early and often without Durant, but it will be great to see him healthy enough to upset Harden and the Rockets in the playoffs.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced each team added or lost with their offseason moves. All wins produced data is from David Berri. Offseason moves were taken from NBA.com and prosportstransactions.com.

HEAT Produced: 2014 Preaseason Stats

2014-10-25T16:44:00.000-04:00

Mario Chalmers, James Ennis, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and Khem Birch were the most productive HEAT players at their positions this preseason.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Point Guards
Chalmers was still the team's most productive player even though Erik Spoelstra took Rio's starting job from him this preseason. Rio produced 0.8 estimated wins and increased the HEAT's chance of winning by an estimated 26% per 48 minutes with 44% shooting from three and 3 steals per 36 minutes.

Norris Cole finished right behind Rio with 0.7 estimated wins produced. He used his new starting position to increase the HEAT's chance of winning by an estimated 20% per 48 minutes with 36% shooting from three and 3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Surprisingly, rookie Shabazz Napier production was above average after a disappointing summer league. Although his shooting efficiency was terrible at 41%, Shabazz still produced an estimated 0.4 wins. The HEAT's first round draft pick increased the team's chance of winning by an estimated 12% per 48 minutes by getting to the free throw line at a high rate (7 trips per 36 minutes), crashing the glass (4.5 rebounds per 36 minutes) and 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

The key to the HEAT having 3 productive point guards this preseason was the defense against opposing point guards, which continued to be elite without LeBron James. The HEAT held opposing point guards to an abysmal 42% shooting efficiency.

If Spoelstra doesn't start Chalmers this season, he should still get more minutes than Cole because Rio's the more productive player. Napier's production should make Spo comfortable using 3-guard lineups, and it should make the front office comfortable with not giving Cole a contract extension and trading him if the right opportunity presents itself this season.

Shooting Guards
Wade dominated the last two preseason games to lead all HEAT shooting guards with an estimated 0.4 wins produced, but he wasn't the most productive shooting guard for the team on a per-minute basis in the preseason. Wade only increased the HEAT's chance of winning by an estimated 11% per 48 minutes, but Andre Dawkins increased the HEAT's chance of winning by an estimated 19% per 48 minutes in limited playing time.

Shannon Brown production was well below average (0.031 est.WP48). Dawkins was three times more productive than Brown despite appearing in only half as many games. I'd like to his wife Monica sing the national anthem, but I don't want to see Shannon Brown on the floor this season.

Tyler Johnson was the least productive HEAT shooting guard in the preseason (0.003 est.WP48) but didn't get much opportunity to prove himself. That opportunity should come in Sioux Falls with the SkyForce.

Small Forwards
Ennis was the most productive small forward in the preseason with an estimated 0.7 wins produced. The HEAT's 2013 draft pick increased the team's chance of winning by an estimated 23% per 48 minutes with 57% shooting efficiency and 6.4 trips to the free throw line per 36 minutes. The problem for Ennis is the level of competition he faced in the preseason. He basically faced summer league competition and produced the same results. His production was terrible in the game he started vs. the Grizzlies with a -4 Win Score. If he played that way the entire preseason, he would have decreased the HEAT's chance of winning by 23% - which is the opposite of the effect he had on the rest of the preseason.

Luol Deng was productive this preseason with 0.4 estimated wins produced that increased the HEAT's chance of winning by 12% per 48 minutes.

Danny Granger was terrible this preseason. He only increased the HEAT's chance of winning by 2.5% per 48 minutes and looked like a waste of a roster spot.

Power Forwards
Power forward was the least productive position for the HEAT this preseason without Josh McRoberts. Birch was the only power forward whose production was above average this preseason. He produced an estimated 0.2 wins and increased the HEAT's chance of winning by 12% per 48 minutes with 11.7 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per 36 minutes, but he only shot 27% from the floor.

Shawne Williams played twice as many minutes as Birch, but he was nearly three times less productive with just 0.040 est.WP48. Udonis Haslem only played in 3 preseason games and was just slightly more productive than Williams with 0.050 est.WP48. Shawn Jones actually decreased the HEAT's chance of winning by 2% per 48 minutes when he was on the floor.

Centers
Bosh was the most productive center for the HEAT with 0.6 estimated wins produced. He increased the team's chance of winning by 13% per 48 minutes with 24 points and 9 rebounds per 36 minutes in the preseason.

Chris Andersen looked washed up in preseason with a below average 0.076 est.WP48, but he was hurt. Of course, that may be a permanent characteristic at his age.

Chris Johnson short stint with the HEAT only lasted for 6 minutes in preseason and Justin Hamilton was terrible against the Grizzlies - he decreased the HEAT's chance of winning by 14% per 48 minutes.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced estimated from the box scores for HEAT players at every position during the preseason and their opponents.

All box score data from RealGM.com.

Mis-Education of LeBron James

2014-07-11T14:40:00.002-04:00

Reading LeBron's explanation of why he chose to return to the Cleveland Cavaliers made me think of this quote...

“If you can control a man's thinking you do not have to worry about his action. When you determine what a man shall think you do not have to concern yourself about what he will do. If you make a man feel that he is inferior, you do not have to compel him to accept an inferior status, for he will seek it himself. If you make a man think that he is justly an outcast, you do not have to order him to the back door. He will go without being told; and if there is no back door, his very nature will demand one.”
― Carter G. Woodson, The Mis-Education of the Negro

Dan Gilbert's letter made LeBron feel like an inferior outcast and in the end, he didn't have to order LeBron to come back to the Cleveland Cavaliers. LeBron's very nature demanded he come back despite the fact Gilbert treated him like a runaway slave.

If LeBron wanted to teach the kids of Northeast Ohio a REALLY powerful lesson, then he would've demanded that Dan Gilbert sell the team before he agreed to return. He didn't do that. His thinking didn't allow it.

He's gone from boasting about winning "not five, not six, not seven" championships when he came to Miami to talking about winning "just one" when he returns to the Cavs.

We've all just witnessed the mis-education of LeBron James.

#IfUDontUnderstandWhiteSupremacyEverythingElseWillConfuseU

Dwyane Wade's 2nd Half Worse Than LeBron James' Muscle Cramps in Game 1 of 2014 NBA Finals

2014-06-07T14:55:00.002-04:00

LeBron James got all the attention for running out of gas in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, but Dwyane Wade's burnout had the greatest impact on the Miami HEAT losing to the San Antonio Spurs.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Most Productive HEAT Players in Game 1 of 2014 NBA Finals
LeBron James and Chris Bosh were the most productive HEAT players in Game 1.

LeBron increased the HEAT's chance of winning by 20.9% with 25 points on 17 shots from the floor and 6 shots from the free throw line, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 turnovers, 3 steals and 1 foul. LeBron was 3 times more productive than the average player in Game 1 with 0.304 est.WP48 despite suffering from muscle cramps.

Bosh increased the HEAT's chance of winning by 20.8% with 18 points on just 11 shots from the floor and 1 from the free throw line, 9 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 turnovers, 0 blocks and 2 fouls. Bosh was nearly 3 times as productive as the average player in Game 1 with 0.297 est.WP48, but his damage was done in the first 30 minutes when he was more than 4 times as productive as the average player with 0.412 est.WP48. In the last 18 minutes of the game, Bosh only produced 0.058 est.WP48. Maybe LeBron wasn't the only one that ran out of gas in Game 1.

Least Productive HEAT Players in Game 1 of 2014 NBA Finals
Dwyane Wade was the least productive HEAT player in Game 1. He decreased the team's chance of winning by 17% with just 19 points on 18 shots from the floor and 2 shots from the free throw line, just 3 rebounds, only 2 assists, 2 turnovers, 1 steal, 0 blocks and 4 fouls. Wade was nearly twice as productive as the average player in the 1st half of Game 1 with 0.179 est.WP48 that increased the team's chance of winning by 6%, but he was AWFUL in the 2nd half with -0.644 est.WP48.

In the end, it was Wade's least productive playoff game in the last 3 years. Prior to Game 1, Wade's least productive playoff game in the last 3 seasons was Game 2 of last year's NBA Finals. The HEAT were able to win that game, thanks to Mario Chalmers killing the Spurs in a 1-3 pick&roll with LeBron.

Unfortunately, Chalmers didn't kill the Spurs in Game 1. He killed the HEAT. 'Rio decreased the HEAT's chance of winning by 9% with 5 turnovers and 5 fouls in just 17 minutes. I said in the series preview that 'Rio needed to play well enough to keep Norris Cole on the bench for the HEAT to dominate the Spurs in this series. Cole played 29 minutes in Game 1 and produced a below average 0.070 est.WP48.

Of course, it's not Chalmers' fault that Cole got so many minutes in Game 1 but Coach Spoelstra's. Playing Cole so many minutes wasn't the worst move Spo made in Game 1. Playing Rashard Lewis nearly 31 minutes was the worst move by far. Lewis was the second least productive HEAT player in Game 1. He decreased the HEAT's chance of winning by 16% with just 50% shooting efficiency, 0 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 steals and 0 blocks while the Spurs' power forwards killed the HEAT for 2.3 points per shot in Game 1.

Shaved Monkey Nuts was no better when he replaced Lewis in Game 1. He decreased the HEAT's chance of winning by 9% in just 13 minutes.

2014 NBA Finals Game 1 Boxscore
The SPURS-GM1 tab in the spreadsheet below lists the estimated wins produced for Game 1 of the 2014 NBA Finals.

2014 NBA Finals Pick: HEAT Sweep

2014-06-05T20:32:00.002-04:00

There's only one path to glory for Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh in the 2014 NBA Finals.

HEAT vs. Spurs

Prediction: HEAT in 4

Explanation: The numbers say HEAT in 6 but I want to root for HEAT in 4 so that's my pick. The only things that prevented the HEAT from sweeping the Spurs out the fucking playoffs and out of this era last year were LeBron's mind and Wade's body. Tim Grover said Wade's body is tremendous shape and if LeBron didn't learn a lesson about how to attack the Spurs defense from last year's Finals then he isn't the all-time great we all think. I can make the argument that Bosh was the most productive HEAT player through the first 5 games of the 2013 Finals until he sacrificed himself on defense in games 6 and 7. So I expect Bosh to battle Tim Duncan to the point he gets some Finals MVP talk after 1 or 2 games. The other key to the sweep is Mario Chalmers. He must play well enough to keep Norris Cole on the bench. 'Rio was up and down in last year's Finals - great in Games 2 and 6, bad in Game 7. If 'Rio is on his game and Ray Allen's knocking down threes, then the HEAT will win the backcourt battle and dominate the Spurs with broom in hand.

Domination is the only path to glory for the HEAT in this series. Let's see if they can walk it.

Norris Cole & Mario Chalmers: Offense is the Difference in 2014 Eastern Conference Finals

2014-05-25T15:33:00.000-04:00

Norris Cole's defense is not why he's getting more playing time than Mario Chalmers in the 2014 Eastern Conference Finals.

According to mysynergysports.com, Norris Cole ranked 50th in points allowed per play this season while Mario Chalmers ranked 110th. That makes it seem like Cole is the better defender than Chalmers and thus the logical choice for Erik Spoelstra to play against Lance Stephenson in the pick-and-roll.

The problem with that thinking, however, is that mysynergysports ranks Chalmers 1st in the league in points allowed per play when defending the ballhandler in pick-and-rolls while Cole ranks 8th.

As Jason Lieser of the Palm Beach Post pointed out, offense is the reason why Cole's getting more playing time than Chalmers the last two games. Cole's shooting efficiency is 15 points higher than Chalmers in the Eastern Conference Finals and he's averaging just 0.7 turnovers per 48 minutes while 'Rio's averaging an insane 5.2 turnovers per 48 minutes. If 'Rio doesn't knock down shots and take care of the ball, he will continue losing playing time to Cole in this series. It has everything to do with his offense, not his defense.

The spreadsheet below lists the defensive stats for Cole and Chalmers from mysynergysports.

HEAT Produced: Game 3 of 2014 Eastern Conference Finals

2014-05-25T14:35:00.000-04:00

Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Andersen dominated the frontcourt while Ray Allen and Norris Cole dominated the backcourt to help the HEAT blowout the Pacers in Game 3 of the 2014 Eastern Conference Finals.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Most Productive HEAT Players in Game 3
LeBron James and Dwyane Wade were the most productive players in Game 3. They played well enough to win the games by themselves. LeBron and Wade combined to increase the HEAT's chance of winning by 54.7% - it only takes 50.1% to win a ballgame.

They started out slow. LeBron decreased the HEAT's chance of winning by 9.5% before he was subbed out the game with over 10 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter. Wade decreased the HEAT's chance of winning by 8.6% in the 1st quarter. It was a different story after each checked back into the game in Q2.

Wade checked in first and increased the HEAT's chance of winning by an estimated 32.7% for the last 34 minutes of the game with 23 points on 14 shots and 4 free throws, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 turnovers, 3 steals, 1 block and just 2 fouls. LeBron checked in second and increased the HEAT's chance of winning by an estimated 40% for the last 30 minutes of the game with 22 points on 9 shots and 9 free throws, 4 rebounds, 7 assists, 3 turnovers, 4 steals and just 1 foul.

LeBron and Wade did what they were supposed to do in Game 3 - they Spo-proofed the game. All the talk about Erik Spoelstra's coaching performance is meaningless when LeBron and Wade play the way they did in Game 3.

Least Productive HEAT Players in Game 3
Chris Bosh was the least productive HEAT player in Game 3. He decreased the team's chance of winning by an estimated 8% with just 9 points on 12 shots and 0 free throws, only 4 rebounds, 0 assists, 1 turnover, 0 blocks, 1 steal and five fouls in 23 minutes.

As proven in the last 2 games, the HEAT can beat the Pacers without Bosh being productive if they win the matchup in the backcourt. In Game 3, the HEAT backcourt increased the team's chance of winning by 41% while the Pacers backcourt decreased Indiana's chance of winning by 1%.

Mario Chalmers' performance was below average, but he had his first game with a positive contribution this series by increasing the HEAT's chance of winning by 2%. In Games 1 & 2 he decreased the team's chance of winning by 9% and 6%, respectively. Once again in this series, however, Norris Cole saved the day at point guard. Cole increased the HEAT's chance of winning by 11% with 9 points from 3 #KamikazeLayups and 1 open three-pointer. Of course, Ray Allen helped win the backcourt matchup by increasing the HEAT's chance of winning by 16% in the 4th quarter with 13 points on just 5 shots and 2 free throws.

Most Productive Pacers in Game 3
The Pacers played so poorly in Game 3 that their most productive player was Ian Mahinmi, who played less than 9 minutes but increased the team's chance of winning by 13%. Roy Hibbert was the 2nd most productive Pacer and increased the team's chance of winning by 8% with 16 points on 13 shots with 2 free throws, 2 rebounds, 1 steal and 3 fouls in 36 minutes. The center position is the only consistent advantage the Pacers have in this series.

Least Productive Pacer in Game 3
George Hill was the least productive Pacer in Game 3. He decreased the team's chance of winning by 4.5% with 8 points on 5 shots and 3 free throws, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 turnovers, 0 steals and 5 fouls in 21 minutes. Lance Stephenson was right behind Hill in the race to the bottom and decreased the Pacers' chance of winning by 4.4%. Their performance is the reason why the HEAT backcourt dominated the matchup in Game 3.

Game 3 Box Score
The PACERS-GM3 tab in the spreadsheet below lists the estimated wins produced in Game 3.

HEAT Produced: 2014 Eastern Conference Finals Comes to Miami

2014-05-24T17:20:00.000-04:00

The HEAT stole a game in Indiana without playing their best, but at home they will need LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Mario Chalmers and Chris Bosh to get back to being themselves to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Most Productive HEAT Players in Games 1 & 2
LeBron James, Birdzilla and Dwyane Wade are the most productive HEAT players in the Eastern Conference Finals after 2 games. The good news for HEAT fans is that the 2 hall-of-famers still have plenty room for improvement.

LeBron was twice as productive as an average forward in the series, but he's doing it mostly with defense. His defensive rebounding, steals and blocks are way above average without picking up cheap fouls. On offense, LeBron's shooting efficiency and assists are average, but his turnovers, offensive rebounding, scoring and free throw shooting (in terms of volume AND accuracy) are below average. LeBron should get to the line more in the AAA than he did in Indiana, so the free throws and scoring should pick up as long as he knocks them down.

Birdzilla was the most productive HEAT player in Indiana on a per-minute basis (nearly three times more productive than the average big man), but he only played 47 minutes. Zilla's minutes will always be limited, but there's an argument to be made for putting him in the starting lineup. If Erik Spoelstra could come up with a rotation that kept either Bird or Bosh on the floor with Udonis Haslem at all times but still allowed them to start and close the game out together, then it would completely change the series.

Wade increased the HEAT's chance of winning 13% each game in Indiana, but he's got the opposite problem of LeBron - all of his production is on offense with almost nothing getting done on the defensive end. Wade's offense is above average in scoring, shooting efficiency and offensive rebounding, but his defense is below average in EVERY category of the boxscore - defensive rebounds, steals, blocks and fouls. The HEAT will need Wade to be a 2-way player to win this series.

Least Productive HEAT Players in Games 1 & 2
Mario Chalmers and Chris Bosh were the least productive players in Indiana. 'Rio decreased the HEAT's chance of winning by 7.5% per game with production that was below average in every category of the boxscore except blocks and assists. Bosh decreased the team's chance of winning by 6% per game with production that was below average in every category of the boxscore except shooting volume, defensive rebounds, steals, turnovers and assists.

The HEA's production is below average in every quarter of the Eastern Conference Finals except the fourth quarter. It's no coincidence the 4th quarter is when Chalmers and Bosh played the fewest minutes.

The HEAT can beat the Pacers without Bosh being productive, but they need to outplay the Pacers' backcourt and they can't expect to do that over a series relying on Norris Cole to pickup the slack while Chalmers struggles.

After 2 games, the Pacers backcourt increased their chance of winning 39% each game while the HEAT backcourt increased their chance of winning by 1% each game. Chalmers, Wade and Allen need to outplay the Pacers backcourt to protect homecourt in Miami.

Most Productive Pacers in Games 1 & 2
Lance Stephenson, Roy Hibbert and George Hill are the most productive Pacers in the series after 2 games. These 3 were also the most productive Pacers in last year's ECF, but the level of their production has changed.

Hibbert increased the Pacers' chance of winning by 20% every 48 minutes in the 2013 ECF and he's doing the same thing in this year's series, but Stephenson and Hill improved from increasing the Pacers' chance of winning from 20% every 48 minutes last year to 41% every 48 minutes this year. The HEAT defense will have to limit the Pacers backcourt to win this series. Stephenson and Hill are each shooting 20% more efficiently than they did in the 2013 ECF and are committing nearly half as many turnovers, thanks to Hill's ballhandling.

Least Productive Pacers in Games 1 & 2
Luis Scola and Paul George are the 2 least productive Pacers in the series so far. George played terrible before getting a concussion in Game 2, but was productive in Game 1 against LeBron. Scola was unproductive in both games. The key takeaway is the Pacers only have 1 hole in their starting lineup's production right now while the HEAT have two big potholes. That will have to change moving forward.

The spreadsheet below lists he estimated wins produced in the Eastern Conference Finals.

2014 NBA Playoffs: Conference Finals Picks

2014-05-18T14:59:00.000-04:00

Every HEAT playoff run comes down to big games from Dwyane Wade. The HEAT will need a few of those to beat the Indiana Pacers in the 2014 Eastern Conference Finals.

HEAT vs. Pacers
Prediction: HEAT in 6

Explanation: Dwyane Wade and Ray Allen are the keys to Miami HEAT winning this series if LeBron James plays like the MVP while Chris Bosh, Chris Andersen and Udonis Haslem battle the Pacers big men to a draw. The HEAT can't win if Wade and Allen don't outplay the Pacers on the perimeter. Wade's production has declined a little from last season's playoff run-to-date (5.3 Win Score per 48 minutes in 2013 vs. 5.0 WS48 in 2014), so he needs to step up his game for the Eastern Conference Finals. Allen was a non-factor vs. the Bobcats but dominated the Nets and was the 2nd most productive player in the series after LeBron. Another key for the HEAT will be Erik Spoelstra's point guard rotation. There's no room for Norris Cole in this series. He's had zero impact in 191 minutes this postseason with an estimated 0 wins produced. Spo needs to rely on Wade and Allen to handle PG duties when Mario Chalmers sits and give Cole's minutes to James Jones. Jones leads the HEAT in shooting efficiency at 64% in the playoffs. HEAT-Pacers is a matchup of the best offense in the playoffs vs. the best defense in the playoffs. Forcing turnovers and protecting the defensive glass will be important, but Spo has to trust his offense to get the team to its fourth straight NBA Finals.

Thunder vs. Spurs
Prediction: Thunder in 6

Explanation: I was extremely confident that OKC could run through the Spurs with Serge Ibaka. Without him, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook will need to prove they're the best players in the Western Conference. Durant has to dominate both forward positions - which won't be easy with Kawhi Leonard in silver and black, and Westbrook has to be twice as productive as Tony Parker. #PointGodzilla aka Westbrook has a chance to dominate his matchup if Parker's hampered by his hamstring strain. We'll see if Durant can grab enough rebounds and block enough shots to dominate the paint and the perimeter for his second trip to the NBA Finals. Seems like Scott Brooks should go small early and often in this series. It will be interesting to see if he out-coaches Gregg Popovich for the 2nd time in his career.

Master Thesis

2014-05-16T12:32:00.001-04:00

Stat geeks say to me, "You ain't smart"
Dead basketball poets tell me, "This ain't art"
This is content from the Covenant of the Ark
Listen to my chest beat, tell me this ain't heart!
You've got to be as obsequious as the disciples of Jesus.
This is my Master Thesis.

2014 NBA Playoff: Conference Semi-Finals Picks

2014-05-05T19:09:00.002-04:00

The HEAT and Pacers should make easy work of the Nets and Wizards in the Eastern Conference Playoffs, but the Western Conference Semifinals could lead to another pair of Game 7s.

HEAT vs. Nets
Prediction: HEAT in 4

Explanation: If Ray Allen is knocking down shots, then the HEAT have dominant advantages at SG, SF and PF. If Ray isn't knocking down shots, then it's important for Spoelstra to give James Jones some burn immediately to keep the pressure on the Nets and sweep them out of the playoffs. Deron Williams, Mason Plumlee and Game 7 KG are the Nets' best hope to win a game in this series. It's up to Mario Chalmers, Udonis Haslem, Chris Bosh and the HEAT defense to make sure that doesn't happen.

Pacers vs. Wizards
Prediction: Pacers in 5

Explanation: This is a bad matchup for the Wizards. Lance Stephenson and Paul George should dominate Bradley Beal and Trevor Ariza on the perimeter. Monster performances from Marcin Gortat, Nene and John Wall are the only hopes for the Wizards to extend the series, unless the Pacers give away massive amounts of points to the Wizards in transition off turnovers.

Spurs vs. Blazers
Prediction: Blazers in 6

Explanation: This series comes down to the backcourt. Damian Lillard has to outplay Tony Parker and Wes Matthews needs to slow down Manu Ginobili the way he slowed down James Harden. The Blazers frontcourt should be able to handle its matchups on the glass and keep the team in the game as long as LaMarcus Aldridge and Lillard can kill the Spurs with their midrange games. The Spurs struggled with the Mavericks offense last round and the Blazers offense is slightly better than that.

Thunder vs. Coons
Prediction: Thunder in 4

Explanation: My head said pick the Thunder in 7 but my heart wants the LA Coons out of the playoffs ASAP, so I'm rooting for CP3 to get hurt battling with Russell Westbrook. If that doesn't happen, then Scott Brooks needs to outcoach Doc River. Kevin Durant will dominate, but Brooks needs to manage his rotation to tilt the backcourt and center matchups in the Thunder's favor. That means alot of Reggie Jackson and Westbrook lineups and no hesitation to replace Kendrick Perkins with Steven Adams if Perk doesn't keep DeAndre Jordan off the offensive glass and the nightly highlights. The biggest key in the series is Westbrook. If he outplays CP3, the Thunder win.

Donald Sterling: What I Would Do If I Were NBA Commissioner

2014-04-27T14:05:00.000-04:00

Everyone needs to be punished for Donald Sterling's bigotry - NBA owners, coaches, players and fans.

The NBA should have a zero-tolerance policy on bigotry so the authenticity of the TMZ recording is irrelevant. The NBA, its owners, players, executives, coaches and fans allowed the bigot Donald Sterling to profit from owning an NBA team far too long. See this blog for some of his previous incidents.

In the interest of demonstrating zero-tolerance, here's what I would do about Donald Sterling if I were NBA commissioner.

Punishment for Sterling & the Owners
First, the NBA buys the Clippers franchise back from Sterling for the $12.5 million he paid for it. That's his punishment. He forfeits the $575 million he could've gotten if he sold the team.

Second, the NBA sells the Clippers franchise to an afrikan-american majority ownership group for $12.5 million. NBA owners pay Sterling fair market value for any team property he owned like the new practice facility, private plane, equipment, etc. The new ownership group can buy this property from the NBA at the price the owners paid for it. The NBA pays any licensing costs associated with changing the franchise name and logo from Clippers to whatever the new ownership group chooses.

Third, the NBA and its owners pay 50% of any buyouts for existing personnel contracts with the Clippers franchise. Any personnel the new ownership group doesn't want to keep (e.g. front office staff, coaches, players, etc.) they buyout and the NBA helps foot the bill.

That's the owners' punishment. They pay the price for allowing Sterling to operate in their league for over 30 years and embrace the league's 2nd afrikan-american ownership group.

Punishment for Players, Coaches and Fans
Since the players, coaches and fans don't have the moral fortitude to boycott playing, coaching and rooting for a bigot's team, the league office will be moral for them, in the interest of zero-tolerance.

The remaining Clippers home games in the first round playoff series against the Golden State Warriors are forfeit. The Clippers now trail 3-2 in the series.

Fans will be refunded any money paid for tickets to the Clippers home games in the first round of the playoffs. Players and coaches can keep their shares of the NBA playoff pool.

This sends a strong message of zero-tolerance for bigotry, which is what the NBA, the Coaches Association and the National Basketball Players Association should demand from everyone in the league.

What would you do if you were the NBA commissioner?

2014 NBA Playoffs: 1st Round Picks

2014-04-19T12:46:00.000-04:00

The HEAT and Spurs should get plenty of rest waiting for their next opponents after the first round of the 2014 NBA Playoffs.

HEAT vs. Bobcats
Prediction: HEAT in 5

Explanation: HEAT have the advantage at every position except center. Al Jefferson will be a problem for Bosh in the middle. Kemba Walker and Mario Chalmers will go back & forth, but 'Rio and the HEAT defense should keep the series relatively drama-free.

Pacers vs. Hawks
Prediction: Pacers in 5

Explanation: The Pacers were terrible after the all-star break, but they still have the advantage over the Hawks at every position. I assume Paul Millsap and Jeff Teague will be able to steal a game.

Raptors vs. Nets
Prediction: Raptors in 7

Explanation: The Raptors have the advantage at 3 of 5 positions. Kyle Lowry and Amir Johnson should get Toronto into the 2nd round for the first time since Vince Carter wore the uniform.

Bulls vs. Wizards
Prediction: Bulls in 5

Explanation: The Bulls have the advantage at every position except point guard. John Wall's good for 1 playoff win. Maybe Ted Leonsis thinks that's worth a max contract.

Spurs vs. Mavs
Prediction: Spurs in 4

Explanation: The Mavs have the most productive bench in the NBA and they'll lose that advantage when Rick Carlisle shortens his rotation for the playoffs. The only advantage that leaves them with is vs. Tiago Splitter. That won't be enough for them to win a game in the playoffs.

Thunder vs. Grizzlies
Prediction: Thunder in 5

Explanation: If Russell Westbrook is Westbrook, then the Thunder have the advantage at every position except center. Marc Gasol gets the Grizzlies one game before Kevin Durant gets revenge for last year's elimination from the playoffs.

Clippers vs. Warriors
Prediction: Clippers in 5

Explanation: The Clippers are weak on the wing, so Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala should be good enough to prevent the sweep. The only hope the Warriors have to win the series is Steph Curry outplaying Chris Paul and I just don't think he's ready for that.

Rockets vs. Blazers
Prediction: Rockets in 7

Explanation: The Rockets have the advantage in the backcourt if Beverley's healthy, the Blazers have the advantage at the forward positions and they're dead even in the middle. As long as Robin Lopez can neutralize Dwight Howard the Blazers will have a chance to win the series, but in the end, James Harden has the biggest advantage in the series and he should take advantage to get the Rockets out of the 1st round.

Chris Bosh: Stretch Five Killing 'Em Softly

2014-03-13T13:05:00.002-04:00

Chris Bosh led the HEAT in scoring vs. the Nets last night (which is unusual), but how he scored was still business as usual.

Bosh scored 24 points with 43% of his shots in the paint and 21% of his shots from three-point land. Bosh gets 39% of his points in the paint this season and 19% of his shots come from three, on average (see stats.nba.com).

According to stats.nba.com, only 23 players classified as centers average 30 minutes per game or more this season. Of those 23 players, Bosh ranks 2nd to last in percentage of scoring from points in the paint (see image below).

Despite getting fewer points in the paints than every big man getting major minutes except Kevin Love, Bosh still gets more points at the free throw line than 8 other big men who score more points in the paint: Al Horford, Serge Ibaka, Spencer Hawes, Al Jefferson, Andre Drummond, Nikola Vucevic, Marcin Gortat and Pau Gasol.

Last night was no different against the Nets, as Bosh got 17% of his points from the free throw line. He gets 18% of his points from the free throw line, on average, this season.

The image below ranks big men by the percentage of points they get from the three-point line. Bosh was above average from 3 last night, with 25% of his points coming from beyond the arc.

HEAT-Rockets Recap

2014-03-05T09:31:00.001-05:00

#FanNight is coming up! Who's your pick for the W? Heat or Rockets on NBA TV? pic.twitter.com/o39efiAONK
— NBA TV (@NBATV) March 5, 2014

Why did the HEAT lose to the Rockets? Here's a summary in 140 characters or less...

LeBron James Took the Bobcats Defense Back to the Bottom

2014-03-04T15:08:00.000-05:00

The Charlotte Bobcats defense improved from one of the worst against small forwards at the beginning of the season to one that was above average... until it ran into LeBron James Monday night in American Airlines Arena.

Here are the rankings for the Bobcats defense in points allowed to small forwards:

November - 26th, allowing 21.4 points per 48 minutes
December - 3rd, allowing 15.8 points per 48 minutes
January - 11th, allowing 18.4 points per 48 minutes
February - 8th, allowing 17.3 points per 48 minutes

The Bobcats defense ranked 13th in points allowed to small forwards before the all-star break. The Bobcats defense now ranks 20th in points allowed after LeBron hit them over the head for 61 points last night.

Udonis Haslem: Gone But Not Forgotten

2014-03-02T02:37:00.000-05:00

Udonis Haslem's appearance in garbage time against the Orlando Magic was the first time he played in a month, but the HEAT will need him in the playoffs if history is any indicator.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

In last season's playoff run to back-to-back titles, only two HEAT players provided above average production in every series: LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.

Four other HEAT players provided above average production in three of the four playoff series last season: Chris Andersen, Chris Bosh, Norris Cole and Haslem.

UD increased the HEAT's chance of winning by:

14% per 48 minutes vs. the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals
20% per 48 minutes vs. the Bulls in the Eastern Conference Semifinals
15% per 48 minutes vs. the Bucks in the Eastern Conference 1st round

UD has played in less than half of the HEAT's games this season and is averaging less than 13 minutes per game. He's been the least productive player on the HEAT this season, decreasing the team's chance of winning by 5% per 48 minutes. UD could use some reps before the playoffs so he can be in shape to help the HEAT make it to their 4th straight NBA Finals.

The spreadsheet below lists the estimated wins produced by each HEAT player and opponent in last season's playoff run.

Dwyane Wade This, Dwyane Wade That...

2014-02-21T15:51:00.000-05:00

Haters say, "Dwyane Wade this & Dwyane Wade that," but all I see is mad more points and mad more stats...

Wade was the most productive player in the NBA last night with 24 points, 7 rebounds and 10 assists for a Win Score of +14. Win Score = PTS - SHOT ATTEMPTS - FTA/2 + OREB + AST/2 - TOV + STL + BLK/2 - PF/2 + DREB/2. It's the stat used to estimate the number of wins a player produces in a season. For more information on Win Score see HERE.

Haters say, "Dwyane Wade this, Dwyane Wade that," all I see is mad more points and mad more stats... YOU BITCHES!

Miami HEAT & the Pacers Chase After the Trade Deadline

2014-02-20T19:11:00.000-05:00

Losing to the Minnesota Timberwolves was not a sign the Pacers are falling off and will be passed by the HEAT in the Eastern Conference standings.

The loss to the Timberwolves was the only game on the Pacers schedule after the all-star break that they had less than a 50% chance of winning.

The spreadsheet below lists the win probability of the HEAT and Pacers for every game after the all-star break. The HEAT schedule is tougher than the Pacers which makes overcoming their 2.5-game lead less likely.

The HEAT have better than a 50% chance of winning in 25 games after the all-star break while the Pacers have better than a 50% chance of winning in 29 games after the all-star break. The HEAT have better than a 60% chance of winning in only 17 games after the all-star break while the Pacers have better than a 60% chance of winning in 25 games after the all-star break.

Replacing Danny Granger's production with Evan Turner's only increases the Pacers' chance of winning by 0.6%. per game. You can see a comparison of their stats here.

If Frank Vogel chooses to replace Luis Scola's production with Lavoy Allen's, then it increases the Pacers' chance of winning by 3.3% per game (you can see a comparison of their stats here). That would make the HEAT's job of catching them even harder.

HEAT Trade Deadline Suggestions

2014-02-19T02:59:00.001-05:00

Two quick suggestions for improving the Miami HEAT at the trade deadline: one big and one small.

Trade #1: It's a Cole World Out There

The first trade suggestion comes from this rumor: Norris Cole Receiving Significant Inquiries As Heat Refuse To Deal Him - RealGM Wiretap.

I don't know if the Sixers are one of the teams interested in Cole, but I'd send the expiring contracts of #ShavedMonkeyNuts (aka Shane Battier), most of the HEAT bench in Erik Spoelstra's rotation and a 2017 1st round pick to them for the contracts of Thaddeus Young and Hollis Thompson.

#NBATradeDeadline Cole + #ShavedMonkeyNuts + Lewis + Beasley + Mason for Thaddeus Young + Hollis Thompson: http://t.co/mPRldFYWfA #WhyNot
— reservoirgod (@MIA_Heat_Index) February 19, 2014

Young and Thompson's production for the Sixers translates to an estimated 2.7 wins after the trade deadline in the HEAT system, while the 5 traded players' production is worth an est. 2.8 wins. The HEAT will need to pickup 3 additional players to meet the NBA's minimum roster requirement of 13 players. I would suggest Justin Hamilton and DeAndre Liggins from the HEAT's D-League affiliate get a chance at two of those slots along with James Nunnally from the D-League, if he's still available.

What the HEAT get out of the trade is a power forward the same size as #ShavedMonkeyNuts, that's 10 years younger, more athletic and plays the same level of defense (according to mysynergysports.com). Young makes 5% less of his threes, but the HEAT coaching staff can improve that the same way they improved Cole's shooting.

It's a move for the future, and will probably require the coaching staff to put in a lot of hours to figure out a way to make it work for a successful three-peat run, but it's a risk I'd take in a heartbeat. The HEAT won't get many opportunities to turn a bunch of players with below average production into a 25 year-old power forward with above average production.

Trade #2: Ray Allen Insurance

The second trade suggestion comes from the NBA rumor central for ESPN Insiders which reports the New Orleans Pelicans are shopping Anthony Morrow's contract.

If I were the GM, I'd use part of the trade exception for Joel Anthony and a 2014 2nd round draft pick to get Morrow's contract.

#NBATradeDeadline Anthony Morrow for part of the Joel Anthony trade exception: http://t.co/IqNiSd3yaJ
— reservoirgod (@MIA_Heat_Index) February 19, 2014

Morrow's shooting 48% from three this season (compared to Ray Allen's 36%). Morrow's only allowing opponents to shoot 36% from the floor and 27% from three while Ray Allen is allowing opponents to shoot 43% from the floor and 45% from three, according to mysynergysports.com. An upgrade in defense and three-point shooting at the shooting guard position is essential for a three-peat if age has gotten the best of Ray Allen.

LeBron James: How Much Help Does He Need for Miami HEAT to 3-Peat?

2014-02-18T20:08:00.000-05:00

LeBron James carried the Miami HEAT into the all-star break, but the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder played like the teams to beat for the NBA championship. The HEAT will need better defense at the shooting guard and center positions - and either some Mike Miller-style cameo appearances from James Jones or a Ray Allen rejuvenation - in order to three-peat in June.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

The spreadsheet below lists the estimated wins produced by HEAT players before the all-star break.

What gives the HEAT their best chances of a three-peat based on their performance before the all-star break?

Based on the basketball-reference.com playoff probabilities report, the path to a HEAT three-peat would go through the Nets, Raptors, Pacers and Thunder (assuming higher seeds won their series).

Based on their performance before the all-star break, the numbers say the HEAT would most likely beat the Nets and Raptors in 5 games and lose to the Pacers or Thunder in 5 or 7 games (see this post for probabilities of winning seven-game series).

The basketball-reference.com forecast says the best case scenario for the HEAT is winning 63 games. It predicts the Pacers winning 61 games (their best case scenario is 69 wins) and the Thunder winning 62 games (their best case scenario is 68 wins).

Basically, those forecasts say the HEAT need to escalate their play a whole letter grade, from a B to an A or A+, just to get home-court advantage and beat the Pacers and Thunder in 7 games. And that's based on the assumption those two teams don't have another level they can take their games to. That assumption may be true for the Pacers, but the Thunder can definitely take their game to another level with a healthy Russell Westbrook.

The difference between Westbrook and Reggie Jackson is potentially worth 2 extra wins to the Thunder, which would swing home-court advantage in the Finals back to OKC. That leaves the HEAT with one question after the all-star break: What needs to change in order for them to three-peat?

Changes
The biggest difference between the HEAT this season compared to last season is defense. The top 10 defense from last season was replaced with a below average defense before this season's all-star break. Yes, last season's team went on the longest winning streak in modern NBA basketball, but this season's team still allowed more points per play than last season's team did before the all-star break and they rank 28th in opponent shooting efficiency.

Now that we've established the defense is a problem, WHERE is the problem?

The biggest problem is shooting guard. No team allowed less production at shooting guard last season than the HEAT. This season, opponents have tripled their production against the HEAT at shooting guard.

Last season, opposing shooting guards shot 39% from the floor (2nd in NBA) and 33% from three (6th) against the HEAT. This season, opposing shooting guards are shooting 47% from the floor (29th) and 40% from three (27th) against the HEAT.

Last season, Wade allowed opponents to shoot 37% from the floor and 35% from three while Ray Allen allowed them to shoot 39% from the floor and 36% from three, according to mysynergysports.com.

This season, Wade's allowing opponents to shoot 39% from the floor and 36% from three while Ray Allen is allowing them to shoot 43% from the floor and 45% from three, according to mysynergysports.com. Ray Allen dropped from being ranked 154th in points allowed per play last season to 326th this season.

In terms of Wade, the only change the HEAT really need to make is get him on the floor more often after the all-star break. Ray Allen, however, has clearly become a liability on defense and he can't shoot well enough to compensate for it. His three-point shooting has dropped from 42% last season to 36% this season.

The nosedive in Ray Allen's defense and drop in his offense combined to reduce his production to the level of a below average player before the all-star break. He only increased the HEAT's chances of winning by 6.6% per 48 minutes this season compared to 13% last season. That's what happens to older players trying to make a run at multiple NBA championships.

Roger Mason (decreased HEAT's chance of winning by 4.5%) and Toney Douglas (decreased HEAT's chance of winning by 2.9%) were not the answer before the all-star break, either. James Jones got lit up on defense in limited minutes before the all-star break, but he gave better than he got by shooting 55% from three. It may be time for Erik Spoelstra to give him some of Ray Allen's minutes if Ray can't turn it around or the team can't find a better option via trade or free agency.

1st change: More minutes for Wade and James Jones

The second biggest problem for the HEAT is in the middle. This season, the HEAT are allowing opponents 22% more production at center than they allowed last season.

Last season, the HEAT allowed opposing centers to shoot 50% from the floor with 4.6 trips to the free throw line. This season, the HEAT allowed opposing centers to shoot 53% from the floor with 5.2 trips to the free throw line.

According to mysynergysports.com, Chris Bosh allowed opponents to shoot 39% from the floor last season and that's increased to 42% this season. Additionally, 3.3% more of Chris Andersen's defensive plays led to shooting fouls this season than last season.

I don't think those changes in Bosh and Birdman's defense are solely the cause of increased production of opposing centers. I think it's more a sign of lapses in the team defense and rotations. Without looking at the video, I'd guess Birdman's committing recovery fouls to stop a big man from getting an easy layup after a missed rotation.

2nd change: Better team defense protecting the paint

If the HEAT can make those changes, they should be able to give fans an exciting ride to another three-peat. If they don't, it could be another disappointing post-season like 2011... and then the free agency talk will begin.

Dwyane Wade's Decline at the Free Throw Line

2014-01-19T07:27:00.000-05:00

Why is Dwyane Wade only getting half as many trips to the free throw line as he got before LeBron James and Chris Bosh joined the Miami HEAT?

This question started with a tweet...

@MIA_Heat_Index got a question...the decline in FTA's for D-Wade....what do you attribute it to?
— Alfredo Arteaga (@UptownReport) January 18, 2014

The table below lists Wade's free throw attempts per 36 attempts for each season of his career.

Season	Age	G	FTA
2003-04	22	61	5.3
2004-05 ★	23	77	9.2
2005-06 ★	24	75	10.0
2006-07 ★	25	51	10.0
2007-08 ★	26	51	8.6
2008-09 ★	27	79	9.1
2009-10 ★	28	77	9.1
2010-11 ★	29	76	8.3
2011-12 ★	30	49	6.6
2012-13 ★	31	69	6.4
2013-14	32	30	4.9
Career		695	8.3

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 1/19/2014.

Wade's free throw attempts dropped from 9.1 per 36 minutes in 2010 to 4.9 per 36 minutes this season. That's a 46% decline and it's not just because he's taking less shots.

The table below lists Wade's free throw rate (the number of free throw attempts per shot) for each season of his career.

Season	Age	G	FTr
2003-04	22	61	.391
2004-05 ★	23	77	.578
2005-06 ★	24	75	.568
2006-07 ★	25	51	.556
2007-08 ★	26	51	.498
2008-09 ★	27	79	.443
2009-10 ★	28	77	.465
2010-11 ★	29	76	.471
2011-12 ★	30	49	.355
2012-13 ★	31	69	.389
2013-14	32	30	.318
Career		695	.472

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 1/19/2014.

Wade's free throw rate (number of free throw attempts per shot) is down 32% from 2010 to this season and it's not because he's less aggressive getting to the rim.

Wade took 37.4% of his shots at the rim in 2010 and 38.8% of his shots are at the rim this season.

Wade's shot distribution in 2010

Wade's shot distribution this season

If the issue with Wade's decline getting to the free throw line isn't the number of shots he's getting or where he's getting them, maybe it's HOW he's getting those shots.

In 2010, 62% of Wade's offensive attack came in pick-and-rolls (29%), ISOs (19%) and transition (14%), according to mysynergysports.com. In fact, those were the three most frequent plays used by Wade from 2010-2013.

This season, only 48% of Wade's offensive attack comes in pick-and-rolls (23%), ISOs (11%) and transition (14%). The less Wade's gotten into pick-and-rolls, ISOs and transition this season, the less he's gotten to the line.

In 2010, Wade drew shooting fouls on 13% of his pick-and-roll, ISO and transition plays, which was good for 4 free throw attempts per game. This season, Wade only draws shooting fouls on 7% of those plays for an average of 1 free throw attempt per game.

In 2010, Wade got to the free throw line as a ball-dominant player attacking in ISOs (13.5% of plays drew shooting fouls), transition (13.4%) and pick-and-rolls (12.9%).

This season, Wade gets to the free throw line as an off-the-ball player attacking with post-ups (17% of plays draw shooting fouls), cuts (12.3%) and spot-ups (10.8%). The problem is that cuts and spot-ups only rank 4th and 6th on Wade's list of most frequently used plays.

In 2010, Wade's 3 best plays for getting to the free throw line were the plays he used the most (62% of the time). This season, Wade's 3 best plays for getting to the free throw line are plays he only uses 37% of the time.

In order for Wade to turnaround his decline getting to the free throw line, it seems he will have to become as aggressive as he used to be in pick-and-rolls and transition or become even more of an off-the-ball player with cuts and spot-ups.

If Wade doesn't figure out how to increase his trips to the free throw line, the good news for HEAT fans is the team won the title last year with the lowest free throw attempts per game average in the last 50 NBA Finals (see the spreadsheet below).

Miami HEAT 2014 Season Preview: Theory of Man

2013-10-29T17:50:00.000-04:00

When it comes to the Miami HEAT, fanalysts hate what they can't understand, fear what they can't conquer. I guess it's just the theory of man.

There were 1,230 wins produced by NBA players last season. An estimated 486 of those wins were moved around the league by free agency, trades and waivers. The wins produced by NBA players this season will be affected by those transactions, the ascension of younger players, descension of older players, new lineups and chemistry, coaching changes and health.

Most players will perform as expected this season, but the outliers that exceed expectations in those categories will battle those who sustain excellence for fame and awards while the outliers that fail to meet expectations will battle those who consistently mediocre for criticism and slander.

The goal of all the important NBA player moves are the same: secure the league's crown jewels now or in the future. Let's analyze who the Miami HEAT's competition will be in the Eastern and Western Conferences this season.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Miami HEAT (66-16 last season)

The HEAT took a step back with their offseason moves (e.g. amnesty of Mike Miller's contract, signing Michael Beasley). Those transactions cost the team an estimated 4 wins from last season. Throw in the age of the rotation and it's easy to see why outsiders think the HEAT will fall off this season. Here's what they don't understand: the HEAT racked up a league-best 66 wins and set the record for most consecutive victories after taking OFF half of last season. LeBron spent the 1st half of last season resting to recover from the Olympics, Dwyane Wade spent it recovering from knee surgery and Chris Bosh spent it rebuilding his strength after an abdominal tear. The league is so weak right now they COASTED to the best record in the league by a 6-game margin. That's why the team with the longest winning streak in the modern era didn't break the Bulls' record for most wins in a season. The HEAT turned it on when they wanted last season and that's reflected in their historic performance during the last 5 minutes of games.

The HEAT have plenty in reserve to battle the teams that improved this season, even if Wade won't be fully recovered from Ossatron shock therapy until January. They have a smaller margin of error without Mike Miller on the roster, but as long as they stay relatively healthy the HEAT should make their 4th straight trip to the NBA Finals. All that bullshit about it being an impossible physical feat is nonsense. Michael Jordan's Bulls teams would've made 4 straight trips to the Finals if he didn't retire to play baseball after the death of his father. LeBron James is this era's Michael Jordan and his father ain't around. He ain't going nowhere except back to the Finals as many times as he wants with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Jordan retired and all LeBron did was inherit his stress to make every title run tougher. You ain't a HEAT fan? Fuck ya. We should just let you live, right? Negative. It's alright.

2. Brooklyn Nets (49-33 last season)

This summer, no team acquired more estimated wins produced by players last season than the Nets. While every other team bitched up and acted afraid of the new luxury tax or the difficulty of competing with the HEAT, Prokhorov told general manager Billy King to make shit happen and he did. The Nets acquired contracts for players that produced an estimated 19 extra wins than the players under contract last season. All that extra production puts the Nets in position to challenge the HEAT for best record in the East this season. The problem for the Nets in the playoffs will be that they don't have a superstar to compete with LeBron and Wade if they bring the Eastern Conference Finals to Brooklyn. Jason Kidd could win Coach of the Year if he pushes the zombie bodies of Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to compete for the best record in the East instead of saving them for the playoffs.

3. Indiana Pacers (49-32 last season)

Larry Bird improved the Pacers bench by signing an extra 4 estimated wins produced last season, but that's chump change compered to what the Nets did and will probably cost them a spot in the conference finals. If the Pacers didn't have such a tight budget they would've made a big move in free agency and signed Andre Iguodala to help Paul George and Lance Stephenson compete with Wade and LeBron on the wing.

4. New York Knicks (54-28 last season)

The Knicks will lose the division to the Nets if Brooklyn's roster stays healthy and they'll drop in the standings as a result. That drop could result in a Knicks-HEAT playoff matchup in the Eastern Conference Semifinals as long as the HEAT hold onto the #1 seed. What fan wouldn't sing up for another round of LeBron vs. Melo?

5. Chicago Bulls (45-37 last season)

Derrick Rose is back but ain't shit changed. Tom Thibodeaux will still grind his team into dust during the regular season. As for the post-season, all that needs to be said is this - beat reporter K.C. Johnson said on NBA TV's The Beat the Bulls will be blown up in the offseason. If the front office doesn't consider this Bulls team a contender, there's no need for fans to take them seriously, either.

6. Atlanta Hawks (44-38 last season)

The Hawks were boring last season. They'll be even more boring trying to be like the Spurs.

7. Toronto Raptors (34-48 last season)

Executive of the Year Masai Ujiri had the 5th-best summer by adding an estimated 9 extra wins produced last season to the Raptors roster. Subtracting Andrea Bargnani while adding Steve Novak and Tyler Hansbrough to the bench should be enough to get them out of the lottery. Will Jonas Valanciunas have the kind of breakout season that can save Dwayne Casey's job?

8. Detroit Pistons (29-53)

The biggest change for the Pistons could be double the Drummond. If Andre Drummond can play twice as many minutes as he did last season, then he'll be in the running for Most Improved Player.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Los Angeles Clippers (56-26 last season)

The Clippers came out of the summer with a new coach and the most production from last season after picking up an extra 14 estimated wins produced from J.J. Redick, Jared Dudley and Darren Collison. If the Clippers end up with the best record in the league then Chris Paul could win his first MVP award.

2. Memphis Grizzlies (56-26 last season)

The Grizzlies picked up an extra 11 estimated wins produced from last season by trading for Kosta Koufos (the starting center from a 57-win Nuggets team) to backup Marc Gasol and signing much needed shooting from Mike Miller. With so many big men crashing the boards for 48 minutes, Miller should get plenty of open threes this season. He could definitely shoot his way into contention for 6th Man of the Year.

3. San Antonio Spurs (58-24 last season)

The Spurs swept the Clippers and Grizzlies out of the playoffs the last two seasons, but both made enough moves to surpass them in the West this season. And since the Spurs couldn't make the Finals in consecutive seasons while Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili were in their primes, I don't expect them to do it now that both are close to retirement.

4. Houston Rockets (45-37 last season)

The Rockets made enough moves to get homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Congratulations. Aim high. Dwight Howard could win Defensive Player of the Year if he can improve the Rockets defense from 16th to top 10 this season. The Rockets will be entertaining because they are the team most likely to fight over a stripper named Sweet Pea this season and James Harden said he wants to guard the opponents' best player every night. There will be plenty laughs for everyone.

5. Oklahoma City Thunder (60-22 last season)

The Thunder's cheap ass ownership officially removed the team from title contention. No Harden and no Kevin Martin means Kevin Durant will be this generation's Reggie Miller. He'll retire with 0 MVP awards and 0 championship rings. Of course, they could probably get homecourt advantage in the first round if someone kneecaps Patrick Beverley. I'm just sayin'... I don't know what the fuck else Kendrick Perkins is good for anyway.

6. Golden State Warriors (47-35 last season)

Mark Jackson will need to pull off his best coaching job yet to get the Warriors to their goal of 50 wins this season with a depleted bench.

7. Denver Nuggets (57-25 last season)

The Nuggets chose a coach that wants to follow in Frank Vogel's footsteps instead of Phil Jackson's and a stupid starting center with poor lung capacity to play in Denver's high altitude. That's how a team falls from the 3rd seed to barely making the playoffs.

8. Dallas Mavericks (41-41 last season)

The Mavs made enough moves to get back into the playoffs. Nobody cares.

The spreadsheet below lists the estimated wins produced from last season that each team added or lost with their offseason and preseason transactions.