Miami Heat Index

March Madness 2012: Day 1 Upset Picks

2012-03-15T12:42:00.001-04:00

Marquette alum Dwyane Wade should enjoy watching the Golden Eagles defeat BYU but there are five upset picks that will be more entertaining on the first day of March Madness.

March Madness Upset Picks: Day 1

EAST region: #16 UNC-Asheville over #1 Syracuse and #12 Harvard over #5 Vanderbilt

SOUTH region: #16 Western Kentucky over #1 Kentucky, #12 VCU over #5 Wichita State and #13 New Mexico State over #4 Indiana.

As explained last year, these upset picks were made with the following biases:

My favorite team is the Georgetown Hoyas. My father introduced me to them during the Hoya Paranoia days and there was no looking back.
I hate Duke.
I always root for black head coaches because I think they are under-represented.
I like the Win Score and Wins Produced metrics. DraftExpress ranks college players by their Win Scores.
I like the Miami Heat (but you already knew that)
I like Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions.

An explanation for each upset pick on Day 1 is listed below.

#16 UNC-Asheville over #1 Syracuse

The Syracuse Orangemen only have one player with a Win Score that ranks in the top 200 and Fab Melo (#195) isn't playing in the tournament. The Asheville Bulldogs have a more productive player that's eligible for the tournament named Jeremy Atkinson (#87).

#12 Harvard over #5 Vanderbilt

Tommy Amaker is the head coach for Harvard.

#16 Western Kentucky over #1 Kentucky

All of the biases listed above point toward the Kentucky Wildcats. Anthony Davis has the highest Win Score in the country and Pomeroy gives Kentucky the best chance to win the title at 19.7%. I picked the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers because they have a player named Derrick Gordon that starred with Kentucky super freshman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist in the high school hoops documentary, Prayer for a Perfect Season. The documentary's portrayal of Gordon struggling to cope with his twin brother being locked up for an aggravated assault charge moved me to pick Gordon's Hilltoppers over his old, high school teammate MKG.

Trailer

#12 VCU over #5 Wichita State
Last year's Cinderella Final Four team is still coached by Shaka Smart even though many analysts predicted he would leave VCU for a bigger school with deeper pockets.

#13 New Mexico State over #4 Indiana
The New Mexico State Aggies are coached by Marvin Menzies, a 2010 finalist for the Ben Jobe Award given to the top minority coach in Division I. Wade will be rooting for Indiana and his old Marquette coach, Tom Crean.

HEAT Madness: Day 1
Wade isn't the only HEAT player with a vested interest in Day 1 of March Madness. UNLV alum Joel Anthony will be rooting for the Running Rebels to beat the Colorado Buffaloes later tonight.

Below is a list of tournament teams each player on the HEAT roster attended. For more on the Miami HEAT's college connections, see the article "Value of a College Education".

Joel Anthony - UNLV
Shane Battier aka Shaved Monkey Nuts - Duke
Mario Chalmers - Kansas
Udonis Haslem, Mike Miller - Florida
Juwan Howard - Michigan
Dexter Pittman - Texas
Dwyane Wade - Marquette

Dwyane Wade in 2003, celebrating with Marquette fans: twitter.com/si_vault/statu…
— Andy Gray (@si_vault) March 15, 2012

Final Four Picks
My Final Four picks are listed below.

East: Florida State
Midwest: Georgetown
South: VCU
West: Missouri

I've got Georgetown beating Missouri in the title game to win it all.

My complete bracket is available here. Enjoy the Madness, everyone!

Miami HEAT: Overtime Production

2012-03-11T19:20:00.000-04:00

After a clutch performance in the fourth quarter, the Miami HEAT managed to beat the Indiana Pacers in overtime despite getting off to a rocky start.

The HEAT were 1-2 in OT games before they played the Pacers and it looked like they were going to be 1-3 after the first two-and-a-half minutes. Here's the play-by-play for the first half of OT from nba.com:

4:44:00 Wade Turnover : Bad Pass (5 TO)
4:11:00 Haslem Jump Shot: Missed
3:37:00 Wade Driving Layup Shot: Missed
3:02:00 James Free Throw 1 of 2 Missed
3:02:00 James Free Throw 2 of 2 Missed
2:32:00 James Layup Shot: Missed
2:24:00 Wade Free Throw 1 of 2 Missed
2:24:00 Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (26 PTS)

The HEAT only scored 1 point in their first 6 possessions of OT. Unfortunately, bad play isn't new to the HEAT in OT this season.

In six overtime periods this season, the HEAT have played like a 4-win team (if you projected their play over an 82-game season). See the HEAT Produced Page for the team's production in each quarter this season. The spreadsheet below lists HEAT players' production in overtimes this season.

Most Productive HEAT Players in OT
Udonis Haslem (0.108 est.WP48) and Chris Bosh (0.102 est.WP48) have been the most productive players in OT this season with 0.064 est. wins produced each. Mario Chalmers is the only other HEAT player that's provided above average production in OT with 0.104 est.WP48.

Least Productive HEAT Players in OT
Oddly enough, the heroes of the Pacers game have been the least productive HEAT players in OT this season. LeBron James produced -0.043 est. wins in OT and Dwyane Wade's produced -0.110 est. wins in OT.

On a per-minute basis, LeBron's produced -0.137 est.WP48 and Wade's produced -0.353 est.WP48. That's well below the production of an average player's 0.100 est.WP48.

Perhaps their success against the Pacers in OT will lead to better performances from them in overtime for the rest of the season that don't require last second shots.

HEAT Produced: Miami 93, Indiana 91

2012-03-11T13:30:00.000-04:00

LeBron James and Dwyane Wade closed out the Pacers in complementary fashion.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced estimated from the box score of the game against the Nets. An average player produces 0.100 estimated wins per 48 minutes (est.WP48), star players produce 0.200 est.WP48 and great players produce 0.300 est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more details.

Most Productive HEAT Players

LeBron led the HEAT with an estimated 0.2 wins produced in 47.1 minutes (0.231 est.WP48) from 27 points, 47% shooting efficiency from the floor, 60% shooting from 15 trips to the line, 8 rebounds, 4 assists and 4 turnovers. 78% of LeBron's est. wins produced came in the fourth quarter and overtime. Is that clutch enough for you?

Wade was the second-most productive HEAT player with 0.2 est. wins produced in 39.6 minutes (0.251 est.WP48) from 28 points, 63% shooting efficiency, 7 assists, 4 rebounds and 5 turnovers. Wade did all of his damage in the first half (0.700 est.WP48) and fourth quarter (0.405 est.WP48 from 3 points & 5 assists).

Least Productive HEAT Player

Shane Battier aka Shaved Monkey Nuts was the least productive HEAT player with -0.1 est. wins produced in 21.5 minutes (-0.235 est.WP48) from 2 points, 20% shooting efficiency and 3 turnovers.

Most Productive Pacers

Paul George led the Pacers with 0.2 est. wins produced in 32.3 minutes (0.272 est.WP48) from 12 points, 67% shooting efficiency, 4 steals, 2 rebounds and 3 assists. Louis Amundson was second with 0.1 est. wins produced in 13.4 minutes (0.434 est.WP48) from 4 points, 67% shooting efficiency, 5 offensive rebounds, 1 block and 1 steal.

Least Productive Pacer

Roy Hibbert produced -0.1 est. wins in 35 minutes (-0.106 est.WP48) from 5 points, 18% shooting efficiency, 7 rebounds, 2 blocks and 4 fouls. Hibbert and David West (-0.084 est.WP48 from 4-18 shooting) were so bad that Chris Bosh's production (13 points, 6-13 shooting, 6 rebounds) looked average (0.103 est.WP48).

Week 12 Eastern Conference Fanalyst Rankings: Trade Deadline Edition

2012-03-11T00:07:00.003-05:00

The Fanalyst Rankings of the top 8 teams in the Eastern Conference return a week before the trade deadline.

There are two sides to every NBA Power Ranking: the Fanalytical and the Fanatical. As a Miami HEAT blogger living on the east coast, MHI played the Eastern Conference fanalyst for games thru Friday. As a Denver Nuggets fan living west of the Mississippi River, the NBA Mistress played the fan and provided the slander. The roles are reversed for the Western Conference Rankings.

1. Miami HEAT (30-9, Last Week #1)

MHI: The HEAT have the best schedule-adjusted efficiency differential in the NBA according to NBAstuffer.com, but will have a tough time against the Bulls in Chicago on the second night of a back-to-back next week. They should sweep their other three games against the Magic and 76ers. Outside of beating the Bulls, the best thing that could happen to the HEAT next week is a Shaved Monkey Nuts trade before the deadline.

NBA Mistress: OH, Look, Miami FINALLY won after they lost to the FUCKING Utah Jazz!!! And the Lakers… The same Lakers that BARELY beat the Minnesota Timberwolves. Is Miami going to have another choke job in the NBA Finals?!?! Do they need a masked LeBron???? Will Norris Cole quit taking SUSPECT pictures??

2. Chicago Bulls (33-9, Last Week #2)

MHI: Bulls have the second-best schedule-adjusted efficiency differential in the NBA and should sweep all four home games next week against the Knicks, HEAT, Blazers and 76ers if they stay healthy. If they lose to the HEAT, they can kiss 1st place in the conference goodbye for the rest of the season.

NBA Mistress: Bulls will beat the Heat, Uncle Rico will wear his “Hair Paint” and this will BLIND the competition.

MHI: LMAO at Carlos Boozer’s “Hair Paint” defense.

3. Atlanta Hawks (23-17, Last Week #3)

MHI: Eight weeks after losing Al Horford, the Hawks still have the fifth-best schedule-adjusted efficiency differential in the NBA. They play three of four on the road next week and will be happy if they can go 2-2 against the Nuggets, Clippers, Wizards and Cavs. They’ll be tough in the playoffs if they don’t make any dumb moves before the trade deadline and get Horford back in the lineup for the post-season.

NBA Mistress: Josh Smith wants out again, but what else is new. The Hawks are the Hawks. 5 days left until the trade deadline. I’m sure they will make a moronic move.

4. Philadelphia 76ers (24-17, Last Week #4)

MHI: The Sixers have the fourth-best efficiency differential against an easy schedule, but the schedule gets tougher as they prepare to face the Pacers, HEAT and Bulls (on the second night of a back-to-back) next week. Despite the trade rumors, Andre Iguodala and Evan Turner put up some stellar defensive stats on the perimeter, and they need them to go 1-2 next week.

NBA Mistress: Sixers are the Sixers. Best case scenario is the aforementioned 1-2 record, but at the end of the day who the fuck cares???

5. Indiana Pacers (23-14, Last Week #5)

MHI: Pacers have the fifth-best schedule-adjusted efficiency differential in the East. Two sets of back-to-backs against the Blazers, Sixers and Knicks will make next week as ugly for the Pacers as their loss at home to the Hawks without Al Horford and Joe Johnson. Expect shooting percentages in the 30s next week unless Larry Bird makes a trade for a shooter before the deadline.

NBA Mistress: AH! The Indiana Pacers. The underdog team that has so much promise, even with their insanely ugly uniforms, but just can’t capitalize.

6. Boston Celtics (21-18, Last Week #7)
MHI: Celtics went 4-1 in their last five games but still only have the eighth-best schedule-adjusted efficiency differential in the East and end next week’s west coast trip on the second night of a back-to-back in Denver. It will be ugly unless Danny Ainge makes a trade to get the team a star that isn’t past their prime.

NBA Mistress: The Celtics ain’t shit. Yeah, they blew out the Blazers Friday night, but let’s be real: Raymond Felton is LITERALLY eating the Blazers out of playoff contention. I will make sure to coddle Rajon Rondo after Denver serves them up next week.

7. New York Knicks (18-22, Last Week #6)
MHI: Knicks have the seventh-best schedule-adjusted efficiency differential in the East, but Linsanity will remain under 0.500 next week against the Bulls, Blazers and Pacers unless Mike D’Antoni realizes there’s a reason the Knicks bench keeps getting the team back in games the starters are losing - the bench has more productive players. Jeremy Lin may have saved his job just for him to throw it away all over again.

NBA Mistress: Didn’t I fucking tell these MORONIC NYK fans about Melo?!?! Didn’t I tell them he is a one-dimensional player that ball stops??? Now, this twodel Asia Monroe has them meeting and J.R. Smith is tweeting Joe Budden’s ex’s ass. This team is a walking disaster. Poor Jeremy Lin.

8. Orlando Magic (26-15, Last Week #8)
MHI: Dwight HowardDwight Howard’s won enough games for the Magic to get them into the playoffs. They’ll be swept, but at least they’ll get two playoff games in the new arena.

NBA Mistress: Poor Magic fans!! They have their hopes up after Magic beat the Bulls, but D-12 is OUTTA THERE!! I hope they enjoy the lottery next year.

HEATcast: On the Road at the Trade Deadline

2012-03-10T00:58:00.001-05:00

Bloggers from the Miami Heat Index and HeatFreak.com discussed what trades the Miami HEAT should and should not make before next week's trade deadline and how the team will fare on the road next week against the top teams in the Eastern Conference.

Podcast Details
Podcasters: Miami Heat Index and Alfredo Arteaga
Recorded: March 9, 2012 at 6:05 PM ET
Duration: 50:39
How to Listen: Play the audio embedded below, download the mp3 or subscribe to iTunes

Companion Reading

The podcasters covered the topics listed below during their discussion.

Trade Rumors
Trade the HEAT Should Make: Chris Andersen for Shane Battier & Eddy Curry
Trades HEAT Shouldn’t Make: Chris Kaman is worse than Joel Anthony but is he better than Dexter Pittman? Alfredo says Pittman's improved.
What to Expect from Next Week’s Schedule

3/13 @Magic: 69% chance of HEAT win
3/14 @Bulls: 35% chance of HEAT win
3/16 @76ers: 59% chance of HEAT win
3/18 vs. Magic: Will Dwight Howard still be there?

Prediction: Alfredo said the HEAT won’t lose another home game for the rest of the season. The numbers agree.

This podcast was inspired by E.J. Fischer.

LeBron James: Numbers Against Him Winning Defensive Player of the Year

2012-03-09T16:47:00.000-05:00

LeBron James defense on Pau Gasol may show he's the most versatile defender in the NBA, but the box scores show he's not the Defensive Player of the Year.

Tim Reynolds of the Associated Press reported that Dwyane Wade thinks LeBron James should win the Defensive Player of the Year award this season.

“The guy guards any position and does it every night,” Wade said of James, who plays inside and on the perimeter at the offensive end. “I think he should be in the discussion for that.”

LeBron said it would be an honor to be named Defensive Player of the Year, but he doesn't think he has the numbers to win.

"It would mean a lot to be considered defensive player of the year — a lot,” James said. “I know how much I’ve put into it and I know I don’t get the 15 rebounds a game, the 13 rebounds a game, I don’t get the 3.5 blocks per game as well and I know that plays a big part in defensive player of the year. For me, I take just as much pride on defense as I do on offense. And that’s every night."

Let's take a look at the numbers to see if Wade has a case for making LeBron Defensive Player of the Year.

This analysis will use Win Score, a simple formula developed by sports economist David Berri that weights each stat in the box score based on the impact they have on points scored and allowed per possession. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

What LeBron's Defense Does to Opponents
According to data from the HEAT Produced Page, the HEAT hold the production of opposing small forwards to a 2.1 Win Score per 48 minutes (WS48). The average NBA small forward produces a 4.4 Win Score per 48 minutes, so the HEAT have held opponents to less than half the league average this season.

The spreadsheet below lists the Opponent WS48 at SF for each NBA team this season.

LeBron's played 59% of the minutes available at small forward this season, so he's responsible for a lot of the problems opponents have at small forward when they play the HEAT. Opposing small forwards average less points and assists with lower shooting efficiency and more turnovers than the average player at the position.

As good as LeBron and the HEAT are at defending the small forward position, they're not the best in the NBA this season. Andre Iguodala and the Philadelphia 76ers have held opposing small forwards to a 1.7 WS48 with less points, shooting efficiency, assists and offensive rebounds allowed than the HEAT.

The spreadsheet below lists the box score stats for Opposing SFs of each NBA team this season.

LeBron does not have the best defensive numbers at his primary position, but Wade said he should win the Defensive Player of the Year award because he can guard multiple positions. LeBron showed that versatility when he guarded Pau Gasol in last Sunday's game against the Lakers.

Pau's produced a 10.4 WS48 this season with 51% shooting efficiency and 2.7 turnovers per 48 minutes (based on data from The NBA Geek), but LeBron and the HEAT held him to a 5.9 WS48 with 40% shooting efficiency and 5.3 turnovers per 48 minutes.

LeBron had 13 rebounds (6 defensive boards), 3 steals and 2 blocks against the Lakers which was his fourth-best combination of those defensive stats this season, but he said he didn't think he had enough of those numbers to win the Defensive Player of the Year award. Is that true?

What LeBron's Defense Does to the Box Score

LeBron may lead the NBA in chase-down blocks but that won't be enough to win Defensive Player of the Year. Big men have won 18 of the last 20 Defensive Player of the Year awards because it typically focuses on the defensive rebounding, steals and blocked shot stats.

Let's negate the advantage of big men for this award by using position-adjusted rebounds, blocks and steals (PARBS). This stat sums defensive rebounds, blocks and steals per 48 minutes for a player and subtracts the average for their position in those categories.

The average small forward averages 8.2 RBS per 48 minutes and LeBron averages 12.3 this season. That leaves LeBron with 4.1 PARBS. LeBron said he doesn't think he has the raw numbers in those categories to win the Defensive Player of the Year award, but does he have the position-adjusted numbers?

Below is a list of the top PARBS for the leaders in defensive rebounds, steals and blocks at each position.

PARBS for leading defensive rebounders at each position

PG - Kyle Lowry: 2.5
SG - Evan Turner: 5.5
SF - Kevin Durant: 4.1
PF - Tim Duncan: 4.9
C - Dwight Howard: 6.1

PARBS for steal leaders at each position

PG - Mike Conley: 0.3
SG - Tony Allen: 2.1
SF - Kawhi Leonard: 2.2
PF - Trevor Booker: 1.0
C - Dwight Howard: 6.1

PARBS for leading shot-blockers at each position

PG - John Wall: 2.1
SG - Tony Allen: 2.1
SF - James Johnson: 3.6
PF - Serge Ibaka: 3.4
C - JaVale McGee: 3.2

Only three players listed above have higher PARBS than LeBron: Dwight Howard, Evan Turner and Tim Duncan. It looks like LeBron is right - he doesn't have the numbers to win Defensive Player of the Year.

Wade will have to hope he wins MVP instead.

HEAT Produced: Miami 89, Atlanta 86

2012-03-08T10:14:00.000-05:00

LeBron James put on a show early but the Miami HEAT needed Udonis Haslem and Dwyane Wade in the fourth quarter to close out the Hawks with a three-point win on the second night of a back-to-back.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced estimated from the box score of the game against the Nets. An average player produces 0.100 estimated wins per 48 minutes (est.WP48), star players produce 0.200 est.WP48 and great players produce 0.300 est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more details.

Most Productive HEAT Players

LeBron led the HEAT with an estimated 0.4 wins produced in 41.6 minutes (0.455 est.WP48) from 31 points, 60% shooting efficiency, 11 rebounds, 1 steal and 2 blocks. LeBron has been more productive on back-to-backs (0.375 est.WP48) than games with rest this season (0.338 est.WP48).

**2012 HEAT**
PLAYER	GP	MIN	EWP48	EST WP
L James	11	419.4	0.375	3.276
S Battier	12	327.8	0.163	1.114
D Wade	9	295.4	0.181	1.112
J Anthony	12	272.3	0.101	0.574
M Chalmers	11	333.3	0.078	0.538
C Bosh	11	399.8	0.051	0.427
U Haslem	12	320.9	0.051	0.343
M Miller	8	140	0.062	0.181
T Harris	2	45.1	0.185	0.174
J Jones	9	87.4	0.038	0.068
M Gladness	2	7.8	-0.384	-0.062
D Pittman	5	44.6	-0.133	-0.123
J Howard	6	18.9	-0.653	-0.257
E Curry	5	26.2	-0.533	-0.291
N Cole	12	240.5	-0.074	-0.372

Udonis Haslem was the second-most productive HEAT player with 0.3 est. wins produced in 21.2 minutes (0.618 est.WP48) from 8 points, 67% shooting efficiency, 4 rebounds and 4 steals.

UD and Dwyane Wade were the only HEAT players that provided above average production in the fourth quarter. Haslem played all 12 minutes in the fourth quarter and produced 0.515 est.WP48.

Wade was the third-most productive HEAT player in the game with 0.2 est. wins produced and 0.244 est.WP48. He produced 0.447 est.WP48 when Erik Spoelstra put him in for the last 6:52 of the game. LeBron only produced -0.018 est.WP48 in the fourth quarter.

Least Productive HEAT Players

Chris Bosh was the least productive HEAT player with -0.2 est. wins produced in 31.9 minutes (-0.280 est.WP48) from 9 points, 21% shooting efficiency, 8 rebounds, 4 turnovers and 3 fouls. It was the fourth-least productive game by a HEAT player this season.

Before this game, Bosh's per-minute production on the second game of back-to-backs (0.080 est.WP48) was 50% less than his production in games with rest (0.161 est.WP48).

Most Productive Hawks

Josh Smith led the Hawks with 0.1 est. wins produced in 37.8 minutes (0.165 est.WP48) from 23 points, 43% shooting efficiency, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals and 1 block. Smith ended the season series with an average of 0.059 est.WP48 vs. the HEAT.

Jeff Teague was the second-most productive Hawk with 0.1 est. wins produced in 32.4 minutes (0.139 est.WP48) from 16 points, 67% shooting, 4 rebounds, 2 assists and 5 turnovers. Teague and Jannero Pargo (0.310 est.WP48) helped the Hawks dominate the point guard battle and limit Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole to just 0.044 est.WP48.

Least Productive Hawks

Ivan Johnson was the least productive Hawk with -0.1 est. wins produced in 19.3 minutes (-0.226 est.WP48) from 2 points, 25% shooting efficiency, 5 rebounds, 2 turnovers and 3 fouls.

HEAT Produced: Miami 108, New Jersey 78

2012-03-07T02:05:00.001-05:00

LeBron James was the most productive HEAT player and Deron Williams' production was below average in a 30-point blowout of the Nets.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced estimated from the box score of the game against the Nets. An average player produces 0.100 estimated wins per 48 minutes (est.WP48), star players produce 0.200 est.WP48 and great players produce 0.300 est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more details.

Most Productive HEAT Players
LeBron led the HEAT with an estimated 0.4 wins produced in 29.6 minutes (0.611 est.WP48) from 21 points, 86% shooting efficiency, nine rebounds, six assists and five turnovers. It was LeBron's ninth-most productive game this season

In his return to the lineup, Chris Bosh was the second most productive HEAT player with an est. 0.2 wins produced in 24 minutes (0.387 est.WP48) from 20 points, 64% shooting efficiency, two rebounds and one steal. It was Bosh's 10th-most productive game this season.

Least Productive HEAT Player
Joel Anthony produced -0.026 est. wins in 18.8 minutes (-0.065 est.WP48) from two points, 50% shooting efficiency, three rebounds and two fouls. It was The Warden's ninth-least productive game of the season.

Most Productive Nets Players
Johan Petro led the Nets with 0.1 est. wins produced in 28.6 minutes (0.173 est.WP48) from 11 points, 50% shooting efficiency, eight rebounds and three steals.

Shelden Williams was second on the Nets with 0.042 est. wins produced in 17.5 minutes (0.116 est.WP48) from 0 points, three steals, two rebounds and one block.

Petro and Williams' production helped the Nets outplay the HEAT in the middle with 0.140 est. wins produced by New Jersey centers compared to just 0.060 est. wins produced by the HEAT centers.

Deron Williams only produced 0.026 est. wins in 26.1 minutes for a below average 0.048 est.WP48 from 16 points, 62% shooting efficiency, four assists and three turnovers. He was outplayed by HEAT rookie Norris Cole, who finished with 0.1 est. wins produced in 22.1 minutes for an above average 0.247 est.WP48 from 13 points, 86% shooting efficiency(!), four assists and two turnovers.

Least Productive Nets Player
Gerald Green produced -0.2 est. wins in 22 minutes (-0.444 est.WP48) from three points, 21% shooting efficiency, three turnovers and two fouls in his return to the NBA from the D-League.

HEAT Check: January & Februray 2012

2012-03-06T13:15:00.000-05:00

Dwyane Wade's 30th birthday, last-second shots and all-star predictions were the most popular articles on this blog in January. LeBron James vs. Kobe Bryant, a big game from LeBron in a bad loss against the Bucks and the best team Dwight Howard could join to beat the HEAT in the playoffs were the most popular blog posts in February.

Most Popular Articles from January
The top three articles at the MHI blog in January are listed below.

1. What Fans Should Expect From Wade After 30

Dwyane Wade celebrated his 30th birthday in February. What should his fans expect in the future after he struggled with injuries at the beginning of this season?

2. HEAT Produced: Miami 103, Minnesota 101

The numbers explain why the Miami HEAT needed a game-winning alley oop to prevent the Minnesota Timberwolves from stealing a win at home.

3. HEATcast: Everything You Need To Know About the NBA After One Month

Bloggers from the Miami Heat Index, HeatFreak.com and the Section 357 Show reviewed their pre-season predictions as the first month of the season reaches its end.

Most Popular Articles from February

The top three articles at the MHI blog in February are listed below.

1. Bird's LeBron Hypocrisy

There was a big problem with Larry Bird's comment about LeBron James.

2. HEAT Check: LeBron's Attempted Murder in Milwaukee

A few quick stats put the Miami HEAT's second loss to the Milwaukee Bucks this season in perspective.

3. HEATcast: Behind Enemy Lines

The NBA thinks the Chicago Bulls defense is a big problem but HEAT fans don't. The Miami Heat Index went behind enemy lines with sports economist David Berri to discuss whether the Chicago Bulls would improve if they traded for Dwight Howard or if the NBA's new revenue sharing plan helps small market teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder or Denver Nuggets compete for his services. The podcast also discussed comparisons of Paul Pierce to Larry Bird and Kobe Bryant to Magic Johnson, fake superstars and real title contenders.

Checkout the rest of the Miami Heat Index articles published in January and February.

Deron Williams: Tough Matchup for Miami HEAT in Three Kings Era

2012-03-06T13:00:00.000-05:00

Deron Williams was a problem for Mario Chalmers and the Miami HEAT's Three Kings long before he dropped 57 points on the Charlotte Bobcats.

Williams produced 0.5 est. wins and 0.158 est.WP48 in four games against the HEAT since Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh joined forces. Chalmers produced 0.1 est. wins and 0.062 est.WP48 in three games vs. Williams during the Three Kings era.

The tables below list the estimated wins produced by Deron Williams and Mario Chalmers in games with the Three Kings.

**WILLIAMS VS. HEAT IN 2011 SEASON**
WHEN	PLAYER	OPP	MINS	WP48	WP	LOC	RESULT
11/9/2010	D Williams	UTH	42.7	0.318	0.256	HOME	L
12/8/2010	D Williams	UTH	42.4	0.331	0.293	AWAY	W
4/3/2011	D Williams	NJN	41.4	0.219	0.189	AWAY	W

**WILLIAMS VS. HEAT IN 2012 SEASON**
WHEN	PLAYER	OPP	MINS	WP48	WP	LOC	RESULT
1/7/2012	D Williams	NJN	38.7	-0.239	-0.193	AWAY	W

**CHALMERS VS. WILLIAMS IN 2011 SEASON**
WHEN	PLAYER	MINS	WP48	WP	OPP	LOC	RESULT
12/8/2010	M Chalmers	25.4	0.039	0.021	UTH	AWAY	W
4/3/2011	M Chalmers	17.5	-0.363	-0.132	NJN	AWAY	W

**CHALMERS VS. WILLIAMS IN 2012 SEASON**
WHEN	PLAYER	MINS	WP48	WP	OPP	LOC	RESULT
1/7/2012	M Chalmers	18.4	0.495	0.190	NJN	AWAY	W

Foul trouble is the problem for Chalmers vs. Williams in the Three Kings era. He averages 10.2 fouls per 48 minutes vs. the Nets all-star over in their last 3 matchups. Of course, Williams' trouble vs. the HEAT in their first matchup this season was that he couldn't shoot or take care of the basketball against a HEAT defense that only had to focus on stopping him since his teammates were so bad.

The table below from basketball-reference.com summarizes all the head-to-head matchups of Chalmers and Williams in their careers.

The HEAT defense should keep Williams from having another big game. If Chalmers can stay out of foul trouble against Williams like he did before LeBron and Bosh allowed him to be more aggressive on defense, then he might be able to have a big game of his own.

See the HEAT Produced Page for more box scores & stats from HEAT games against Williams. Check out the following links for more articles about Deron Williams and the HEAT:

LeBron James: Why His PER Is Useless Information

2012-03-05T17:49:00.000-05:00

LeBron James' success is measured by winning and championships, so his PER is irrelevant bullshit produced by ESPN's hype machine.

There's been a lot of talk that LeBron is having the greatest season in NBA history because an obscure number that no one understands says so. That number is his Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and examples of that talk can be found in the following articles:

The creator of PER, ESPN columnist John Hollinger, said in the video posted above that PER was complicated. Well, sports economist David Berri recently posted his thoughts on this analysis of PER done by former Dallas Mavericks consultant Wayne Winston: Wayne Winston Simplifies PER. Here's an excerpt on PER's complexity:

Wayne Winston has a short post on John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating. Hollinger’s PER Ratings Demystified

Here is Wayne’s entire post (in case you didn’t feel like clicking over):

I have had a great time teaching a sports and math class to Kelley School of Business students at Indiana University. One of my ace students Paul Aynilian did a study trying to estimate John Hollinger’s famous ESPN PER Ratings based on box score statistics.

We found that 45.75*(Points/Minute)+22.55*(Rebounds/Minute)+32.8*(Assists/Minute)+58.2*(Steals/Minute)-48.65*(Turnovers/Minute) -39.73*(Missed FG’s per minute) -20.6*(Missed FT per minute)+38.37*(Blocked Shots Per Miute)-18.68*(Personal Fouls Per Minute) explains over 99% of the variation in this season’s PER rankings and is off by an average of .37 in estimating the PER of the top 200 NBA players whose stats are on Yahoo.com. So basically our simple formula virtually duplicates the PER rating without a lot of mumbo jumbo.

The disturbing thing about these weights is that if an NBA player shot 33 .33% (1-3) then the more shots they take the higher their PER because shooting 1 for 3 gives you a net contribution of 2(45.75)-2(39.73)>0!! Clearly this is bad because a 33% shooter is not a good shooter and with these weights the more shots a bad shooter takes, the higher his PER rating.

Let me add a bit to this story...

1. PER certainly looks like a very complicated formula. And so it is easy for people who are not mathematically inclined to think it is 'advanced' (although it is highly correlated with the much simpler NBA Efficiency metric – which few people think is 'advanced').

2. Measures like PER and NBA Efficiency are not about 'efficiency'. But they do explain – as noted in Stumbling on Wins — player evaluations. In other words, these “advanced” measures are consistent with popular perceptions."

OK, so PER is a complicated-looking way of measuring player efficiency by... requiring them to shoot better than 33% from the floor? Good thing it looks complicated because it sounds stupid.

Hollinger said in the Microsoft Business Intelligence interview that offensively, PER absolutely correlates with winning. Is that all it takes to win in the NBA - shooting better than 33% from the floor? Then why have the Charlotte Bobcats only won 4 games this season scoring points with a 44% shooting efficiency?

Berri explained the problem:

"We can also see how well PER explains wins with a simple regression of team wins on a team’s PER. The results indicate that PER only explains 33% of team wins. You can do better if you add the team defensive measures used in Wins Produced. Those factors increase explanatory power to 55% (if you weigh the team defensive factors as they are in Wins Produced) or 82% (if you allow the weights of each individual factor to vary). Either way, PER does not explain 95% of team wins (as we see with Wins Produced).

In sum, PER is a model that is not theoretically sound (yes, it over-values inefficient scoring) or empirically sound (it doesn’t explain wins)."

So, the best season of LeBron's career is supposed to be measured by a statistic that isn't theoretically or empirically sound? That only makes sense in the theater of the absurd that surrounds the Miami HEAT featuring shows debating crunch time plays in exhibition games.

At the end of the day, that's all the talk about LeBron's PER is - another piece of content produced for ESPN's talking heads to debate and hate on LeBron. They're not the Wordwide Leaders of the HEAT Shit List by accident.

For more information on PER and Game Score, the simpler version of PER discussed in the Business Intelligence video (what an ironic sponsor), see the FAQ at Berri's website - wagesofwins.com. For a better story about the historical context of LeBron's season, check out this article by the Courtside Analyst.

Remember: PER's garbage and Hollinger's hustling it for money and fame just like the stat geeks hustling plus/minus models to NBA franchises. Don't Believe the Hype.

Chris Bosh: Keys to Greatness

2012-03-05T08:06:00.000-05:00

If Chris Bosh shoots like he did before Dwyane Wade came back from injury and rebounds like he did after, then the Miami HEAT will become one of the greatest NBA teams of all-time.

The spreadsheet below lists the production of Bosh and the average power forward in a HEAT game before and after Wade returned from injury against the Knicks.

Bosh's shooting efficiency is 43% since Wade returned from injury. For the 2012 season, his shooting efficiency is 50%, which is what he shot for the 2011 season. Since Wade returned from injury, Bosh is shooting 43% but he shot 56% before Wade's return.

Bosh was an above average rebounder at power forward last season, but he's been below average at that position this season. Since Wade returned from injury, Bosh has rebounded at an above average rate.

Last season, Bosh produced an estimated 0.177 wins per 48 minutes, but he's only producing 0.132 est.WP48 this season due to his struggles rebounding the ball before Wade's return and his struggle shooting the ball since.

Shandel Richardson from the South Florida Sun-Sentinel reported Bosh has been working on different ways to score since Wade returned, so that he has a variety of moves for the post-season.

"I just missed shots. I don't get to the free-throw line. I'm in a position where I'm trying to figure other things out. I can do the same thing over and over and I know it will work. It's not what it's about for me right now. I'm trying to build for the postseason."

If Bosh combines last season's shooting efficiency with his rebounding since Wade returned from injury, then his production will rise to the same level it was last season. Bosh would've produced an estimated 1.4 extra wins if he played the first half of this season as productive as he was last season. That would be worth an extra one to two games in the standings.

If Bosh combines the shooting efficiency he showed before Wade's return from injury with the rebounding he showed afterwards, then his production doubles. In that scenario, Bosh would've produced an estimated 3.3 extra wins worth anywhere from one to six games in the standings. The HEAT record would have been no worse than 28-6 and could have been as high as 33-1 going into the All-Star break.

Bosh's shooting and rebounding could be the difference between title contender and dynasty for the Miami HEAT. They're 12-3 over the last two seasons when Bosh shoots above 55% and grabs more than 10 rebounds.

<p>&amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;br /&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt; Report Created on &amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/"&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/a&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;br /&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt; &amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;gt;</p>

HEAT Produced Page Updated With Stats from 3-Game West Coast Trip

2012-03-05T04:23:00.000-05:00

LeBron James was the most productive Miami HEAT player against the Trailblazers, Jazz and Lakers with an estimated 1.1 wins produced on the road trip while Norris Cole was the least productive with an est. -0.3 wins produced.

The tables below list the estimated wins produced by HEAT players and their opponents on the road trip. An average player produces 0.100 estimated wins per 48 minutes (EWP48). See the HEAT Produced Page for links to individual box scores from each game and updated season stats.

**HEAT ROAD TRIP SUMMARY**
PLAYER	GP	MIN	EWP48	EST WP
L James	3	128.4	0.419	1.12
M Chalmers	3	95.1	0.219	0.434
S Battier	3	89.5	0.197	0.367
D Wade	3	101.7	0.149	0.316
J Anthony	3	100.8	0.027	0.056
J Howard	1	9	-0.394	-0.074
U Haslem	3	74.8	-0.066	-0.102
D Pittman	3	26.4	-0.333	-0.183
M Miller	3	53.7	-0.194	-0.217
N Cole	3	40.2	-0.316	-0.265

**OPP. ROAD TRIP SUMMARY**
PLAYER	GP	MIN	EWP48	EST WP
A Bynum	1	40	0.4	0.333
M World Peace	1	37.8	0.399	0.314
K Bryant	1	38.9	0.296	0.24
D Harris	1	25.6	0.447	0.238
N Batum	1	31.4	0.328	0.215
W Matthews	1	33.5	0.296	0.207
E Watson	1	22.4	0.421	0.197
E Kanter	1	16.5	0.55	0.189
G Hayward	1	26.3	0.231	0.127
J Przybilla	1	19	0.296	0.117
P Gasol	1	36.3	0.114	0.086
S Blake	1	28.7	0.135	0.081
A Jefferson	1	31.4	0.096	0.063
R Felton	1	15.6	0.156	0.051
P Millsap	1	30.4	0.056	0.035
J Crawford	1	32.4	0.035	0.024
T Murphy	1	19.3	0.012	0.005
D Favors	1	17.6	0.003	0.001
M Camby	1	21	-0.024	-0.011
C Smith	1	4.6	-0.243	-0.023
A Goudelock	1	9.5	-0.149	-0.029
C Miles	1	21.8	-0.099	-0.045
A Burks	1	8.3	-0.319	-0.055
M Barnes	1	10.2	-0.257	-0.055
E Williams	1	5.5	-0.785	-0.09
D Fisher	1	19.2	-0.371	-0.148
G Wallace	1	36.2	-0.198	-0.149
L Aldridge	1	40.7	-0.187	-0.158
Jo. Howard	1	39.7	-0.253	-0.21

HEATcast: Everything You Need to Know About the NBA After the All-Star Break

2012-03-03T03:06:00.001-05:00

Bloggers from the Miami Heat Index and Section 357 Show updated predictions from their season preview with Alfredo Arteaga from HeatFreak.com on everything that would happen in the 2012 NBA season after the All-Star break.

Podcast Details
Podcasters: Miami Heat Index and Big Shot Ron

Recorded: March 2, 2012 at 6:00 PM ET
Duration: 60:36
How to Listen: Play the audio embedded below, download the mp3 or subscribe to iTunes

Companion Reading
Previous Season Preview HEATcasts:

Trade Predictions

Original prediction - Dwight Howard: Lakers | Updated prediction - Howard to Nets (MHI), No trade (Big Shot Ron)
Deron Williams: None | None
Other: Monta Ellis and Rudy Gay won't end the season on the Warriors and Grizzlies (Big Shot Ron), Andrew Bynum will be traded for Gerald Wallace (Alfredo) | Monta to Magic, Pacers

Twitter Will Blow Up When...

Original prediction - MHI: Sexually Deviant Behavior of Rose is Exposed. Where there's smoke... there's fire | Updated prediction - Wall of isolation around Derrick Rose is too tight and will explode if he doesn't loosen up next season
Original prediction - Big Shot Ron: Daryl Morey Snitches on David Stern and explains what really happened to the Lakers' CP3 trade | Updated prediction - Morey spills the beans at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

Regular Season Awards

Original prediction - Coach of the Year: Gregg Popovich (MHI), Scott Brooks (Alfredo Arteaga), Lionel Hollins (Big Shot Ron) | Updated predictions - Hollins & Brooks come up short behind Popovich
Original prediction - Executive of the Year: Glen Grunwald (MHI & Big Shot Ron), Neil Olshey (Alfredo) | MHI picks Billy King for pulling off a Dwight Howard trade; Big Shot Ron picked Olshey
Original prediction - Most Improved Player: Eric Gordon (MHI), DeAndre Jordan (Alfredo), DeMar DeRozan (Big Shot Ron) | Updated predictions - Roy Hibbert is the favorite if he lasts the season, but the HEAT can make two interesting cases for winning the award
Original prediction - Sixth Man of the Year: James Harden (MHI), Udonis Haslem (Alfredo), Lamar Odom (Big Shot Ron) | Updated prediction - Harden is the front-runner
Original prediction - Defensive Player of the Year: Joakim Noah (MHI), Dwight Howard (Alfredo & Big Shot Ron) | Updated prediction - Howard will cement his case for winning the award by taking the Nets’ defense from worst in the NBA to average
Original prediction - Rookie of the Year: Kenneth Faried (MHI), Kemba Walker (Alfredo), Kyrie Irving (Big Shot Ron) | Updated prediction - Kyrie’s got too big a lead for anyone to catch him
Original prediction - MVP: ~~Wade~~ Chris Paul (MHI), Kevin Durant (Alfredo & Big Shot Ron) | Updated prediction - It’s LeBron vs. Wade with the winner decided by the hatred of NBA writers
Original prediction - All-NBA First Team: PG Chris Paul (MHI), Derrick Rose (Alfredo & Big Shot Ron); SG Dwyane Wade; SF LeBron James; PF Kevin Durant; C Dwight Howard | Updated prediction - Injuries could open up spots for Chris Paul & Kobe Bryant

Playoffs

Original prediction - Winners (aka title contenders): HEAT, Bulls, Thunder | Updated prediction - MHI said the Spurs are contenders if Ginobili’s healthy in the playoffs
Original prediction - Losers (aka tankers): Hornets & Pistons | Updated prediction - Bobcats are the worst team in the NBA and they’re on a mission to prove it in the record books
Original prediction - Pretenders (won't win a playoff series, get someone fired): Knicks (Mike D’Antoni will be fired), Clippers (Larry Brown replaces Vinny Del Negro), Magic (Otis Smith will be fired) | Updated prediction - Jeremy Lin saved D’Antoni and CP3 saved Del Negro. Nothing can save Smith.

This podcast was inspired by E.J. Fischer.

Chris Bosh: What's the Impact of His Loss?

2012-03-01T21:03:00.001-05:00

LeBron James played his most minutes at power forward this season against the Toronto Raptors on February 5th and he finished the game with 30 points and nine rebounds. The HEAT may need even better production than that to maintain their winning streak while Chris Bosh misses the next two games to deal with the death of his grandmother.

The loss of Chris Bosh takes the Miami HEAT from a 60-win team to a 50-win team because it impacts the rotation at three positions: small forward, power forward and center.

This article uses the Est. Wins Produced stat created by sports economist David Berri. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

The spreadsheet below lists all of the players that were subbed in at power forward this season. LeBron ranks third on the HEAT in minutes played at the position.

On a per-minute basis, the most productive player on the HEAT at power forward has been Joel Anthony and LeBron ranks second. Without Bosh to back him up at center, though, The Warden will likely play more minutes in the middle and LeBron will pickup the 18 minutes/game usually given to Bosh.

The spreadsheet below lists LeBron's production at small forward and power forward. LeBron's a much less productive player at power forward, but the shifts in his game are interesting. He shoots a lower percentage from the floor but gets to the free throw line more. He averages less points but more rebounds, less steals but more blocks.

It makes sense for Erik Spoelstra, the Coach of the Month Award winner for February, to give Bosh's minutes at power forward to LeBron, and then give 18 minutes of LeBron's time at small forward to Mike Miller or James Jones instead of Shaved Monkey Nuts aka Shane Battier.

The least productive HEAT player at the position, Dexter Pittman will probably see extra playing time at center while Bosh is out. If Spo can find a way to avoid that or Pittman can find a way to play better, then the HEAT's chances of winning increase.

As bad as Pittman's been this season, the dropoff from replacing Bosh with Big Pitt in the rotation (-1.7 est. wins) is less than the dropoff from LeBron to his backups (-2.3 to -2.7 est. wins) because the King's been so dominant this season.*

The spreadsheet below lists the production of HEAT players at small forward and center this season.

* The dropoff in production based on rotation changes at center assumed LeBron played all of Bosh's minutes at power forward while Miller and Battier or Miller and Jones played LeBron's minutes at small forward. The assumption at center was that Anthony, Haslem and Pittman equally split Bosh's minutes at center.

Black History Month: From Basketball Slave to 40 Million Dollar Slaves

2012-03-01T18:17:00.000-05:00

From Basketball Slave to Forty Million Dollar Slaves, black players allowed white team owners to exploit their superior production for 60 years.

When the NBA integrated, black players were more productive than their white counterparts at every position except power forward.

This article uses the Win Score statistic created by sports economist David Berri to measure player productivity. Win Score is calculated using the following formula: PTS+REB+AST/2+STL+BLK/2-SHOT ATTEMPTS-FTA/2-TO-PF/2. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

This article uses stats estimated by WhatIfSports.com, a sports simulation site, because all the stats necessary to calculate Win Score were not tracked until the 1978 season.

The first black players joined the NBA for the 1951 season. The spreadsheet below lists the average Win Score per 48 minutes (WS48) for all NBA players at each position from 1952-1961 and the average WS48 for every black player in the NBA at each position during the same period. Most black NBA players from 1952-61 were identified using "Appendix B: African Americans in the NBA" from the book Basketball Slave by Mark Johnson.

It was routine for NBA arenas to to lure fans to NBA games by sandwiching the games between double-headers featuring the Harlem Globetrotters, so it was no surprise that black players like Bill Russell, Ray Felix and Wilt Chamberlain (a former Globetrotter) dominated the center position while black players like Elgin Baylor, Willie Naulls and Oscar Robertson dominated the small forward and point guard positions in the first 10 years of NBA integration.

Players from the 1950s suffered from the same problem as players today - the lack of entrepreneurial vision and spirit that William Rhoden described in his book 40 Million Dollar Slaves. Black players in the 1950s let white club owners like Abe Saperstein (owner of the Globetrotters) exploit their talents during segregation and white NBA franchise owners exploit their talents during integration. Since black players had the more productive talent, and were used to attract fans to see the less productive white players, they should have started their own league.

Mark Johnson, son of the Globetrotter Andy Johnson, explained this exploitation in the video below.

The NBA's refusal to adequately compensate the players that integrated the NBA is baffling since the owners are such big fans of competitive balance. Berri illustrated in academic research and his book that integration improves competitive balance in professional sports.

Hopefully the modern NBA players break down the Black Wall of Silence and address this issue in the next collective bargaining agreement since they failed to address it in the one they recently negotiated during the NBA Lockout.

One More Nite of Black History

2012-02-29T13:23:00.001-05:00

Legendary graffiti artist JamesTop began Black History Month celebrating Hip Hop icon Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. in 3D at the Azucarera Gallery in Sugar Hill, Harlem and ends it with One More Nite of performances at the Sapphire Lounge on the Lower East Side of NYC.

Most people don't hear the phrase "Hip Hop Icon" associated with Martin Luther King, Jr. very often, but in The Gospel of Hip Hop by KRS-ONE he is referred to as the King of Hip Hop. The Teacha explained why.

"Nowhere else in the World is the King's Dream so accurately expressed as within Hip Hop. Nowhere else in the World is there an international culture that is truly home to all races, classes, ethnicities and religious beliefs without prejudice other than Hip Hop... Nowhere else in the World is a person truly judged by the 'content of their character' as opposed to the 'color of their skin' than within Hip Hop... The King stated: Let freedom ring from the mighty mountains of New York. New York is where Hip Hop began culturally in the 1970s."

The article Dwyane Wade & LeBron James Showed Their Respect for a Hip Hop Icon went into more detail on the connection between Hip Hop and MLK Jr. and included pictures from a graffiti show curated by JamesTop at the Azucarera NYC Gallery in Harlem that honored that connection for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.

For Black History Month, JamesTop added live performances to the gallery giving a third dimension to the two-dimensional artwork.

Some examples of the art on display are listed below with links to MP3 files of the performances that accompanied them.

I Am A Man

Art by LaRonz Murray

Spoken Word Performance by LaRonz Murray: MP3

King

Art by JamesTop

Performance of “Sittin’ on the Back of the Train Freestyle” by JamesTop: MP3

If you’re in NYC, stop by the Sapphire Gallery at 249 Eldridge St from 6-10 PM where JamesTop will be bringing graff by artists like like CASP1 with musicians and rappers like the Bandroidz and Double Green to deliver three dimensions of Black History for One More Nite in February. According to JamesTop, “The purpose of the show is to bring consciousness to the people.”

Do the knowledge.

Week 10 Eastern Conference Fanalyst Rankings: Trade Rumors Edition

2012-02-25T22:07:00.002-05:00

The biggest date on the NBA calendar after All-Star Weekend is the trade deadline and it's the last chance teams have to improve themselves enough to become the best in their conference. This week's Fanalyst Rankings highlight the trade rumors surrounding the best eight teams in each conference.

The worksheet below lists the trade rumors from espn.com and iamagm.com for the last two weeks.

There are two sides to every NBA Power Ranking: the Fanalytical and the Fanatical. As a Miami HEAT blogger living on the east coast, MHI played the Eastern Conference fanalyst for games thru Friday. As a Denver Nuggets fan living west of the Mississippi River, Mrs. NBA played the fan and provided the slander. The roles are reversed for the Western Conference Rankings.

1. Miami HEAT (27-7, Last Week #1)

MHI: HEAT have the best schedule-adjusted efficiency differential in the NBA (points scored minus points allowed per possession based on strength of schedule) and should go 3-0 after All-Star Weekend, but their streak of double-digit blowouts may end in Utah on the second night of a back-to-back. It would be easier for the HEAT to keep the blowouts going if they had a center to help them on the glass, but there are no recent trade rumors for them.

Mrs. NBA: YAWWWNNNN! While I am glad the Heat ousted the Knicks, glad is an understatement. It was orgasmic to see the whiny NYK fans on twitter eat crow, but the Heat are a bore. They need an Asian point guard… or an Uncle Rico. Heck, even a Kendrick “I’m a fake tough guy” Perkins would be aight.

2. Chicago Bulls (27-8, Last Week #2)

MHI: Bulls have the second-best schedule-adjusted efficiency differential in the NBA, but could go 2-2 after the All-Star break with tough road games at San Antonio (second night of a back-to-back) and Philadelphia. Trade rumors had Derrick Rose requesting the Bulls trade Carlos Boozer’s contract for Pau Gasol’s but Rose denied them. Bad move by Rose because Pau’s worth at least an extra win for the Bulls and even more if Tom Thibodeau could play him in the fourth quarter.

Mrs. NBA: Of course the Bulls are #2, there isn’t a team that comes close. However, just having an Uncle Rico on their team should be enough to earn that #1 spot. UNCLE RICO. UNCLE RICO. UNCLE RICO.

3. Atlanta Hawks (20-14, Last Week #3)

MHI: Hawks went 2-3 in their last 5 games against the toughest schedule in the East. They should go 2-1 next week with the Warriors, Bucks and Thunder coming to Atlanta. Recent rumors said Marvin Williams wants to be traded, but that doesn’t help the Hawks unless teams like the Lakers or Timberwolves (that need a small forward) will trade them Pau Gasol or Nikola Pekovic’s contract.

Mrs. NBA: WAIT!! You left out the part where they LOST TO THE FUCKING KNICKS!!!! Do you hate Asians???? Do you not like egg rolls?? Do you hate white rice too???

MHI: Yeah, I'm a brown rice kinda guy. It's healthier.

4. Philadelphia 76ers (20-14, Last Week #4)

MHI: Sixers went 0-5 against the second-toughest schedule in the East over the last five games (according to nbastuffer.com). The losing streak should end in Detroit on Tuesday and the Sixers can gut out a 3-1 week if they beat the Bulls at home on Sunday. Beating the best offensive rebounding team in the league would be a lot easier if Rod Thorn, President of Basketball Operations, makes the rumored trade for a big man.

Mrs. NBA: FUNNNYYYY!!! You STILL, even with a tough schedule, give the Sixers 4th place with 5 STRAIGHT losses!?!?! Interesting… interesting indeed.

5. Indiana Pacers (21-12, Last Week #5)

MHI: Pacers have fourth-best schedule-adjusted efficiency differential in the East, but stay in the fifth spot because they got it by going 4-1 against the easiest schedule in the conference over the last five games. Trade rumors say that Larry Bird will make a deal to get the team over the minimum salary cap and maybe that will get them over the hump in the East. Pacers are only 5-7 against teams in the East Fanalyst Rankings.

Mrs. NBA: Wake me up when they make it past the first round. Zzzzzzzzzzz.

6. New York Knicks (17-18, Last Week #6)

MHI: Linsanity got invited to All-Star Weekend, but the all-stars put an end to it last week. The Knicks should split the point guard battles against Kyrie Irving and Rajon Rondo waiting for them next week. Perhaps the most incredible thing Jeremy Lin accomplished was finally quieting the trade rumors that swirled around the Knicks the last two seasons, but they still don’t have enough talent to be a title contender.

Mrs.NBA: You barely mention Lin-Sanity AGAIN, MHI!!!!! Lin would whoop your behind in a little basketball and CALCULUS!!! WHY DO YOU HATE THE HARVARD GRAD?!?!?!? Have you been food poisoned by a Chinese/Japanese restaurant. WHO HURT YOU!?!?!?!

7. Boston Celtics (15-17, Last Week #7)

MHI: Celtics are clinging to the eighth-best schedule-adjusted efficiency differential by less than half-a-point over the Milwaukee Bucks. If they don’t go 2-2 after the All-Star break, then it will be their last appearance in the Fanalyst Rankings until they put together a two-week winning streak or Danny Ainge makes a trade to improve the team’s rebounding and get them easy points going to the basket. Only the Nets take less shots inside 10 feet.

Mrs. NBA: I have two words: BEN. GAY.

8. Orlando Magic (22-13, Last Week #8)

MHI: Magic posted the second-best schedule-adjusted efficiency differential in the East over the last five games of the Dwight Howard farewell tour. Based on the recent trade rumors, the best deal for the Magic would be whatever unveils itself behind the mystery doors of the three- or four-team deal the Nets are putting together. Either way, Otis Smith should be fired.

Mrs. NBA: This team is hanging on to Dwight Howard’s coattails…

Mario Chalmers: Haters Ain't Nothing But Fuel, Doubters Ain't Nothing But Fools

2012-02-25T13:27:00.001-05:00

Mario Chalmers has been using haters as fuel to prove doubters wrong his entire career.

Miami Herald beat reporter Joseph Goodman published an interesting article on Chalmers: Miami Heat’s Mario Chalmers inspired by doubts, challenges.

The article provides insight into Chalmers' "adversative psyche" and how it could help him in the Three-Point Contest during All-Star Weekend the same way it's helped him in his NBA career. Some examples from the article of haters and doubters from the NBA that have driven Chalmers in his career are listed below.

Overlooked in the Draft
“Coming into the NBA, I felt like I slipped in the draft and a lot of people overlooked me.”

Chalmers definitely proved people wrong. In 2009, he led all rookie PGs in Wins Produced. He was more productive than 2009 Rookie of the Year and 2011 MVP Derrick Rose, 2011 All-Star Russell Westbrook, and lottery picks D.J. Augustin (#9) and Jerryd Bayless (#11). NOTE: Average player produces 0.100 WP48.

NAME	TEAM	GP	MIN	WP48	Wins
Chalmers, Mario	MIA	82	2626	.119	6.5
Rose, Derrick	CHI	81	3000	.087	5.4
Augustin, D.J.	CHA	72	1908	.090	3.6
Westbrook, Russell	OKC	82	2668	.044	2.5
Hill, George	IND	77	1270	.044	1.2
Nelson, DeMarcus	GSW	13	171	-.113	-.4
Taylor, Mike	LAC	51	771	-.056	-.9
Ukic, Roko	MIL	72	890	-.059	-1.1
Bayless, Jerryd	TOR	53	655	-.092	-1.2
Brown, Bobby	LAC	68	931	-.108	-2.1

Not Good Enough to be HEAT's Point Guard

"I just want to go out there and prove people wrong."

You know, like those people who said before the season that the Heat still needed a solid point guard to complete its roster.

Pushed by rookie Norris Cole... You want more motivation? Remember last season, when the Heat cut Carlos Arroyo to sign Mike Bibby? It was the managerial equivalent of Pat Riley walking up to Chalmers and slapping him in the mouth.

Doubters be damned, Chalmers proved he's the Ghost of HEAT PG Past, Present and Future. No matter who the HEAT have brought in or will bring in, Competition is None. This season is no different.

Before the All-Star break, Chalmers produced an estimated 3.6 wins and 0.182 est. wins per 48 minutes (average players produce 0.100) while Norris Cole only produced an estimated -0.5 wins and -0.024 est. WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more stats. It looks like the hype from Cole's scrimmage was just more motivation for Chalmers to put together a great season.

Putting Alaska on the Map

To this day, he still points out that he’s the third player to make it out of Alaska and to the NBA.

“A lot of people don’t think anything about Alaska,” Chalmers said. “A lot of people say there’s nothing in Alaska but snow and ice. So, being from Alaska, being that guy … I just want to prove it.”

Chalmers may be the third player to make it in the NBA out of Alaska but according to basketball-reference.com he's the only player in the NBA that was born there. That was enough to land him in ESPN the Magazine's infographic of the top NBA scorers from each state in America.

The Best Stories Come From College
As impressive as Chalmers' stories about proving the haters wrong in the NBA may be, the most entertaining story comes from his days at University of Kansas. The latest HEATcast: All-Star Break Analysis, discussed how Chalmers' performance against Lin shouldn't have been a surprise based on what he did in big games as a Jayhawk.

Below is an excerpt from the book Beyond the Phog where Chalmers explains how he used hateration from Villanova coach Jay Wright to destroy the Wildcats in the NCAA tournament.

In Mario Chalmers' words...
A LITTLE PAYBACK

People like to talk about the North Carolina and Memphis games, but one of the biggest wins for us during the NCAA Tournament was against Villanova.

That game was personal, because Jay Wright – the Villanova coach – had also been the head coach of the USA Basketball team that represented the country in the Pan Am games the previous summer. Jay Wright cut both Sherron and me from that team and kept his own player from Villanova, Scottie Reynolds, who had clearly been the worst player at the entire camp. He led the whole camp in turnovers. Sherron didn’t play all that well, either, because his knee hadn’t recovered from the previous season. But for me, I felt like I did everything right. I led them in steals, I had a lot of assists and I barely had any turnovers. But I wasn’t shooting the ball very much. They used one of those international balls, so they were different. I didn’t like the ball. I shot maybe six times.

When they cut me, they told me it was because I didn’t score and that they wanted a scoring point guard. I was like, “Why do y’all need all these scorers? What do you need a scoring point guard for when you’ve got all these other scorers?” They had Alonzo Gee from Alabama and guys that could already score. I was just trying to get other players involved. When they cut me, I was hurt. I was like, “Oh, you wanted me to score and you didn’t tell me that?” They had told Coach Self they just wanted a guy to distribute the ball, but Jay Wright cut me and kept his own player.

So when it came to the Villanova game, Coach Self called Sherron and me into his office and said, “How do you feel about this Villanova game?” I said, “Coach, this is personal to me. I don’t like Jay Wright.” He was like, “I understand that, but keep it out of the media.” So when the media asked if it was a personal game, we’d say, “No, it’s not personal. It’s just another game.” But during the game we were talking all kinds of s--t to Jay Wright. We’d run by him and tell him, “Sit your ass down! We got this!” Another time we said to him, “This is what you get for cutting us. We’re about to dog you!” Anytime we were throwing the ball in from the sideline, when he was standing up trying to call a play, we’d tell him to shut his mouth and sit down. There was one play where I threw a lob to Shady on an inbounds pass and he dunked over Scottie Reynolds. Right before I threw it I looked at Jay Wright and said, “Watch this!” That game was definitely personal for Sherron and me.

Scottie Reynolds hasn't played one game in the NBA while Mario's gone on to become one of the 10 most productive point guards in the NBA this season.

NAME	TEAM	POS	GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	WP48	Wins
Paul, Chris	LAC	PG	26	942	25.4	4.8	11.4	.294	5.8
Nash, Steve	PHO	PG	31	995	20.8	4.2	16.4	.277	5.7
Lowry, Kyle	HOU	PG	32	1135	21.1	7.2	10.3	.234	5.5
Calderon, Jose	TOR	PG	33	1124	15.5	4.9	12.6	.232	5.4
Rubio, Ricky	MIN	PG	34	1186	15.6	5.9	11.5	.174	4.3
Conley, Mike	MEM	PG	32	1142	17.7	3.6	9.0	.167	4.0
Collison, Darren	IND	PG	33	1100	16.5	5.1	7.5	.160	3.7
Chalmers, Mario	MIA	PG	32	897	19.2	4.4	6.2	.188	3.5
Rose, Derrick	CHI	PG	25	882	29.7	4.7	10.4	.185	3.4
Rondo, Rajon	BOS	PG	22	813	19.2	6.3	12.4	.190	3.2

Haters ain't nothing but fuel and doubters ain't nothing but fools.

HEATcast: All-Star Break Analysis

2012-02-24T21:24:00.002-05:00

Bloggers from the Miami Heat Index and HeatFreak.com discussed the future of LeBron James and the Miami HEAT dynasty and what fans can expect in the second half of the season after the team's performance before All-Star Weekend.

Podcast Details

Podcasters: Miami Heat Index and Alfredo Arteaga

Recorded: February 24, 2012 at 6:01 PM ET
Duration: 56:40
How to Listen: Play the audio embedded below, download the mp3 or subscribe to iTunes

Companion Reading
The podcasters discussed stats from the HEAT Produced Page and the topics listed below during the HEATcast.

Will LeBron James' Return to Cleveland Prematurely End the HEAT’s Dynasty?

Alfredo said Don't Bet On It
MHI analyzed whether the OKC Thunder were more likely to be a dynasty than the HEAT

What’s the biggest surprise from the 1st half and will it be sustained in the 2nd half?

Dwyane Wade’s slow start
Wade's MVP performance since returning from injury

Will the starting lineup have Three Kings or Four? Mario Chalmers is playing like a king, Chris Bosh is not.
Which role players will be in Top 6 of the playoff rotation?

Udonis Haslem (Alfredo's choice)
Norris Cole
Joel Anthony
Shane Battier aka Shaved Monkey Nuts
Mike Miller (Alfredo's choice)

All-Star Predictions:

Alfredo said Norris Cole won't win MVP of the Rising Stars Challenge because Shaquille O'Neal made mistakes in the draft. MHI liked their chances.
Who will win the Three-Point Contest? James Jones, of course!

This podcast was inspired by E.J. Fischer.

HEAT Produced Page Updated: 2/24/12

2012-02-24T04:05:00.000-05:00

The HEAT Produced Page was updated with stats from games against the Magic, Kings and Knicks. Mario Chalmers was the second-most productive player last night as he shutdown Jeremy Lin.

Apologies for the lack of content the last two weeks, but this weekend the blog gets back on track with a new HEATcast, the Fanalyst Rankings and a HEAT Check analyzing what the first half of the season should mean for the second half. Enjoy All-Star Weekend.

Week 9 Eastern Conference Fanalyst Rankings: NBA All-Star Saturday Night Edition

2012-02-19T08:26:00.000-05:00

Week 9 of the NBA season ends with All-Star Weekend, where the best plays take place above the rim and beyond the arc. This week’s Fanalyst Rankings highlights the best dunkers and bombers on the best teams in the Eastern Conference.

The worksheet below ranks all teams in the NBA by dunks and threes this season.

MHI: The HEAT have the best schedule-adjusted efficiency differential in the NBA after stomping a mudhole in the Hawks, Bucks, Pacers and Cavs on the road this week. Next week, they go back home to beat the Kings and Knicks before All-Star Weekend. Reigning three-point champion James Jones is stuck behind Shaved Monkey Nuts in Coach Erik Spoelstra’s rotation, so Mario Chalmers leads the team in three-pointers made and will challenge him in the three-point shootout on Saturday while LeBron James (7th in dunks) and Dwyane Wade will take the HEAT’s 7th-ranked aerial attack to Sunday’s All-Star Game.

Mrs. NBA: Who cares about the Heat?!?! Yeah, they are the #1 team in the league, but do they have Uncle Rico and his “Spray Paint” hair?!?! No!! That’s what I thought!! The Heat are WORTHLESS!!!! What about Lin-Derella?? No?? YEAH, pathetic… get an Asian and then Heat fans can talk.

2. Chicago Bulls (25-7, Last Week #2)

MHI: Derrick Rose’s back spasms cost the Bulls a game in Boston this week and dropped them to the second-best schedule-adjusted efficiency differential in the league. The Bulls should run over the Hawks and Bucks on their way to All-Star Weekend. The Bulls rank 10th in dunks but Joakim Noah (23rd in dunks) won’t be joining Rose at Sunday’s game. Kyle Korver ranks 10th in three-pointers made but he won’t be competing All-Star Weekend, either.

Mrs. NBA: The Bulls should clearly be #1. HUH??? Not for talent. Not for Ashton Kutcher. Not for the delicious Derek Rose. But because they have UNCLE FREAKIN RICO!!!!!!!! Dude needs to sell that “Hair Paint” and become useful!!

MHI: If the East wasn't so bad, Boozer's hair would've dropped the Bulls a spot because it was that bad. No wonder his son is a HEAT fan. I'd be ashamed to root for my dad if he did some shit like this.

3. Atlanta Hawks (19-11, Last Week #3)

MHI: The Hawks still have the fourth-best schedule-adjusted efficiency differential despite the fact they’ve played two-thirds of the season without their All-Star center, Al Horford. All-Star Joe Johnson travels a tough road to All-Star Weekend through Chicago, New York and then the second night of a back-to-back in Atlanta against the Magic. They should go 1-2, but 0-3 is a definite possibility. The Hawks win more games beyond the arc with three-point shootout contestant Joe Johnson (he leads the 8th-ranked Hawks in threes) than above the rim with Josh Smith (Hawks rank 16th in dunks). There’s your All-Star snub in 30 words or less.

Mrs. NBA: Who cares about Atlanta!!!!!!!!!!! Josh Smith, PFFTT! Joe Johnson?? PFFTT!!!! Ya ain’t shit until you have LIN-SANITY!!!!!!!!!

4. Philadelphia 76ers (20-11, Last Week #4)

MHI: The Hawks dropped from fourth in schedule-adjusted efficiency differential last week to eighth this week as their schedule got tougher. The Sixers will probably go 0-2 playing a tough back-to-back against the Grizzlies and Rockets before Andre Iguodala (the team leader with 30 dunks) heads to All-Star Weekend. The Sixers only rank 19th in threes so it’s no surprise Jodie Meeks didn’t get an invitation to the three-point shootout.

Mrs. NBA: Philly??? Do they have Uncle Rico????? Do they have Lin-Derella???? Do they have the man with Trina’s lips on the side of his neck??? NO?!?!? THEY AIN'T SHIT!!!!! Ya team ain’t a team unless your player has the #1 fathead!!!! Give me some of that LIN and Juice…

5. Indiana Pacers (18-12, Last Week #5)

MHI: What sucks about the Eastern Conference is that the Pacers can have the 24th worst schedule-adjusted efficiency differential in the NBA over the last 5 games and still have the fifth-best rating in the East for the season. The Pacers get to send Roy Hibbert and Paul George to All-Star Weekend with a winning streak next week after games against the Hornets and Bobcats in a back-to-back. George will represent a team ranked 28th in dunks in the Slam Dunk contest.

Mrs. NBA: What… I fell asleep thinking about the Pacers.

6. New York Knicks (15-16, Last Week #7)

MHI: The Knicks have the fifth-best schedule-adjusted efficiency differential in the East over the last five games, but they’re still ranked behind the Pacers because they’ll probably go 1-2 next week with a cake game against the Nets before a back-to-back vs. the Hawks and HEAT. Jeremy Lin will be throwing lobs to Iman Shumpert in the dunk contest but the Knicks rank fourth in dunks this season because of the alley oops thrown to Tyson Chandler, who leads the team with 63 slams.

Mrs. NBA: THESE MU’FUGGA TEAM SHOULD BE FIRST!!! GET ON YOUR KNEES AND PRAISE ALL THAT IS LIN!!!!! Sacrifice your goats!!!! Your unused sperm!! Your V-Card!!! And give It to LINNNNNN!!!!!!! You only mention Lin once?!?!?!? Are you racist?!?!?! Are you the editor that pinned the “Chink in Armor” on ESPN?!?! Why do you hate the Lin-Dynasty?!?!?!

7. Boston Celtics (15-14, Last Week #6)

MHI: The Celtics are terrible. They rank 26th in schedule-adjusted efficiency differential over the last five games with double-digit losses to the Raptors and Pistons last week, but the East is so bad they still have the seventh-best rating for the season. The Celtics will probably send Paul Pierce to All-Star Weekend on a four-game losing streak since they play the Mavericks in Dallas on the second night of a back-to-back before traveling to Oklahoma City. Ironically, as old as the Celtics are, they still have more dunks this season than the younger 76ers.

Mrs. NBA: Who cares?!?! They don’t have LIN (Fuck your Asian on your team, Lin’s the NBA Dream) and no Uncle Rico!!! YAWN FEST!

8. Orlando Magic (20-11, Last Week Unranked)

MHI: The East is so bad that if the Magic play without Dwight Howard after All-Star Weekend they might make the playoffs even if Otis Smith only gets a list of Basketball Reasons from David Stern in return. If the Magic trade Howard, they lose the second-most prolific dunker in the NBA and it will be interesting to see if they can remain the most prolific three-point shooting ream. League leader Ryan Anderson better enjoy the open shots he gets in the three-point shootout because they may not be there after All-Star Weekend.

Mrs. NBA: Magic, Smagic!! This team has a whiny, diva-ass player who obviously needs some snow bunny punani to calm his ass down; NO Lin-Derella; and most of all, no player that uses “Hair Paint”… Yeah, they have Big Baby, but c’mon soiled baby diapers is better than his ass.

HEAT Produced Page Updated after 3-0 Back-to-Back-to-Back

2012-02-16T10:29:00.000-05:00

Dwyane Wade's production is back at the same level as last season after a slow start, but the bench led by Norris Cole is producing worse than last season's reserves. Overall, the team's production is about the same as it was last season. Those are the highlights from the latest update to the HEAT Produced Page.

The bench has produced an estimated 2.7 wins in 2744.8 minutes this season, which is equivalent to the production of a 19-win team. The only players providing above average production off the bench are Mike Miller and Terrel Harris (who's inactive most nights) while Udonis Haslem's production is just about average. Norris Cole is the least productive player on the HEAT with an estimated -0.6 wins produced.

Last season, the bench produced like a 24-win team without Haslem for most of the season (see the article Heat Check: Sixth Man of the Year & Ranking the Reserves). The only above average players off the bench last season were Miller, Haslem and Jamaal Magloire (who was inactive most nights).

Larry Bird: His LeBron James Hypocrisy

2012-02-12T13:19:00.001-05:00

There's a big problem with Larry Bird's comment about LeBron James.

This week's HEATcast, Behind Enemy Lines, discussed comments by Bird that were posted in the Miami Herald's HEAT Blog:

Larry Bird: Win with Kobe; Have fun with LeBron:

Larry Bird recently sat down with Bill Simmons for a podcast session and had some interesting things to say about LeBron James.

First off, Bird said LeBron is without question the best player in the game today.
"LeBron James is by far our best player in this league," Bird said. "I don’t think there’s anyone next to him."

But then Bird was asked who in the game he would like to play an entire season with. Bird went with Kobe Bryant because of "his desire to win, his dedication in the offseason to get better and he’s tough. He’s just a tough cat."

Bird added: "But if you want to have fun like I did with Bill Walton you play with LeBron. It would probably have been more fun to play with LeBron but if you want to win and win and win it’s Kobe. Not that LeBron isn’t a winner."

The problem with Bird's comment is that he never won more games than the 67 the Celtics won when Bird played with Bill Walton in 1986. Who would ever think the greatest Celtics player from the modern era would be such a big fan of the Kobe System?

If Bird's evaluation of players is that flawed, then it explains why the Pacers have never won more games with rosters he built than the one he inherited as general manager for the 2003-04 season. This season's Pacers team may be the best roster Bird's put together as GM and LeBron almost singlehandedly defeated them this season with an estimated 0.470 wins produced (a team only needs to produce an estimated 0.501 wins for a game to go in the win column).

What it really boils down to is that Bird would rather have someone with Kobe's personality than LeBron's production. Maybe that's the politics of the game that Josh Smith was referring to when he found out the coaches didn't vote him into the All-Star Game this year.

Check out the HEATcast to hear the full discussion of Larry Bird's comments, the Celtics and the Lakers.

Week 8 Eastern Conference Fanalyst Rankings: Rising Stars

2012-02-12T01:23:00.000-05:00

The NBA announced the rookie and sophomore selections for All-Star Weekend's Rising Stars Challenge on Tuesday but this week's Fanalyst Rankings show that youth is mostly wasted on the young.

There are two sides to every NBA Power Ranking: the Fanalytical and the Fanatical. As a Miami HEAT blogger living on the east coast, MHI played the Eastern Conference fanalyst for games thru Friday. As a Denver Nuggets fan living west of the Mississippi River, Mrs. NBA played the fan and provided the slander. The roles are reversed for the Western Conference Rankings.

1. Miami HEAT (20-7, Last Week #1)

MHI: According to nbastuffer.com, the only team in the NBA with a better schedule-adjusted efficiency differential than the HEAT are the Bulls and they beat them head-to-head two weeks ago to claim the top spot in the East. The only HEAT loss in the last five games came on the second night of a back-to-back in Orlando. With the sixth-oldest rotation in the NBA, the HEAT have been vulnerable in those games, playing 0.400 basketball. First-round draft pick Norris Cole has not been much help as the second-least productive rookie in the NBA and that’s why he doesn’t belong in the Rising Stars Challenge on All-Star Weekend. The HEAT play three games in three nights next week before getting to rest before playing the Cavs and Magic. A 3-2 record next week is the most likely scenario.

Mrs. NBA: Wait, didn’t the Heat lose to Dwight and the Magic???? Anyways, Heat is still the best team in the East, no contest. However, who cares!!! It’s LIN-Sanity!!!!

2. Chicago Bulls (23-6, Last Week #2)

MHI: The Bulls went undefeated this week without Derrick Rose at full-strength. They only have the 12th-oldest rotation in the NBA, but next week’s schedule against the Celtics, Kings and Nets without any back-to-backs will help their injured roster put up another undefeated week. The Bulls don’t have any Rising Stars but Jimmy Butler ranks in the top 15 for wins produced by rookies.

Mrs. NBA: Who cares?!?! Move over Derrick Rose, an Asian has my heart, but you still get the box! It’s LIN-Sanity!!!!

3. Atlanta Hawks (18-9, Last Week #3)
MHI: Reality’s starting to set in as the Hawks dropped from first to third in schedule-adjusted efficiency differential. They go on the road to face the Lakers and Suns in a back-to-back after the HEAT game on Sunday. The Hawks have the 8th-oldest rotation in the NBA and their most productive rookie, Ivan Johnson, is a 27 year-old from the D-League with below average production. The Hawks may go winless next week.

Mrs. NBA: Hawks??? Who cares about the flying birds from Hotlanta!!! The only flying object the NBA-verse loves is LIN-Sanity!!!!

4. Philadelphia 76ers (18-9, Last Week #4)
MHI: The Sixers have the fourth-best schedule-adjusted efficiency differential in the NBA this season but they only rank 22nd in their last five games due to tougher competition. Rising Star Evan Turner and the Sixers’ productive rookie big men, Lavoy Allen and Nikola Vucevic, should help the fourth-youngest rotation in the NBA go undefeated next week with @Bobcats, @Magic, Mavs and @Timberwolves on the schedule without any back-to-backs.

Mrs. NBA: The Sixers make me question if things are real or just a fantasy… They lost to the Clippers and I just sort of scratch my head.

5. Indiana Pacers (17-9, Last Week #6)
MHI: The Pacers have the fifth-best schedule-adjusted efficiency differential in the East but are only 2-3 in their last five games. They moved up in the rankings because the Celtics didn’t look good in their rock fight against the Lakers. It will be tough for the Pacers to hold onto the fifth spot next week with three games in three nights but the ninth-youngest rotation in the NBA should win two out of three. Rising Star Paul George, the most productive player on the roster, will need to play big next week.

Mrs. NBA: FUCK THE PACERS! It’s LIN-Sanity!!!

6. Boston Celtics (14-12, Last Week #5)
MHI: The Celtics have the sixth-best schedule-adjusted efficiency differential in the East, but they lost a rock fight they should’ve won against the Lakers and got killed as expected on the second night of a back-to-back in Toronto. The second-oldest rotation in the NBA will need to win three of the next four games in its home-and-home series with the Bulls and Pistons next week for the Celtics to move up the rankings. If they can’t beat the Bulls in Boston on Sunday, Kevin Garnett will need rookie Greg Stiemsma, top 15 in rookie wins produced, to beat them on the second night of a back-to-back in Chicago.

Mrs. NBA: Celtics are still the Celtics… With wheelchairs, walkers, and Ben-Gay!

7. New York Knicks (12-15, Last Week #8)
MHI: The Knicks have the ninth-best schedule-adjusted efficiency differential in the East this season, but they have the ninth-best rating IN THE NBA over the last five games with a 4-1 record. The one loss came before Mike D’Antoni played Jeremy Lin starter’s minutes. It’s also fortunate the Knicks played the 26th-weakest schedule in that span and don’t face another playoff team until the Mavsliving the dream in the backcourt with Rising Star Landry Fields, then the Knicks can go 4-1 next week, too.

Mrs. NBA: Funny how you BARELY mention the ASIAN SENSATION!!! Are you feeling that Chinese MAMBA?!?!?! Can you feel that, can you smell that??? That’s not chicken-fried rice, mayne, that’s LIN-Sanity!!!

8. Milwaukee Bucks (12-14, Last Week #7)
MHI: The Orlando Magic are 3.5 games ahead of the Bucks in the standings but their schedule-adjusted efficiency differential numbers are virtually the same. Since the Magic will rapidly drop out of the playoff picture once Dwight Howard is traded (and he’s never rescinded his trade demands), the Bucks get the eighth spot by default. Little man Brandon Jennings is no longer considered a Rising Star in his third season, but big man Jon Leuer ranks in the top 10 for rookie wins produced and has helped the Bucks stay competitive without Andrew Bogut. They should go 3-1 next week with HEAT, Hornets, @Magic and @Nets on the schedule.

Mrs. NBA: Brandon Jennings just needs to go find himself a nice little man somewhere, nut in his ass, and shut his diva-like ass. PERIOD.