Miami Heat Index

HEAT Produced: Frank Vogel Beat Erik Spoelstra In a Race to the Bottom for Game 1

2013-05-23T13:51:00.000-04:00

As Erik Spoelstra was choking away another Game 1 in the 2013 NBA Playoffs, Frank Vogel saved him with a Heimlich maneuver that forced defeat from the jaws of victory so he could swallow Spo's chewed up loss for himself.

After 80 substitutions in the most over-coached playoff contest so far, Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals played out as expected. Spoelstra didn't have the team ready despite a week of preparation, didn't implement a game plan to exploit the opponent's weaknesses in the playoffs and he played Shaved Monkey Nuts (aka Shane Battier) and Norris Cole too much.

How does the coach who finished 2nd in Coach of the Year voting NOT have the 2nd best offense in the NBA ready to score more than 37 points in the 1st half against the NBA's best defense after a WEEK to prepare - FOR THE SECOND SERIES IN A ROW? I don't know because nobody in #HEATMedia asked him during the press conference televised on NBA TV.

How does the coach many proclaim to be "Filipino Jackson" NOT exploit the Pacers short rotation filled with key players that are hurt (George Hill), asthmatic (Roy Hibbert), slow (David West) and turnover-prone by pushing the pace and running them into the ground or the bench, whichever comes first, by pressing, trapping, rebounding and running? I don't know. I guess the HEAT couldn't play fast and go deep into their bench... Oh, wait - the bench has 3 of the 4 most productive HEAT players in the playoffs and 3 more that have been productive in previous playoff runs! Vogel told Dan Patrick his players need to rest on the off day because they played so many minutes in Game 1. The Pacers faltered at the end of the season because they were dealing with fatigue and injuries. How can the game plan NOT be to run them into the floor?!

How does a coach whose 3rd-most-used lineup featured no point guards this season play a no-point-guard lineup for JUST 3:38 after Chalmers left the game with a shoulder injury and 17:35 remaining in regulation? I actually know the answer to this one: Battier's a friend of the owner who's played too much since he joined the team and Spo's not great making changes to his rotation on the fly.

Glass half-full view of the game? Besides getting a win, HEAT fans are 1 game closer to the Shadow GM hiring Tom Crean to coach the team in 2014.

The numbers from the boxscore show just how bad Shaved Monkey Nuts and Cole were in the game. The numbers also show how LeBron James and Dwyane Wade tried to Spo-proof the game but fell short. They needed a lot of help from #CradleRobber aka Chris Andersen to get the job done.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Most Productive HEAT Players

#CradleRobber was the most productive player in the game with 0.997 est.WP48 (almost 10 times better than an average player) despite playing only 18.3 minutes. He increased the HEAT's chance of winning the game by 34% with 16 points, no missed shots, 5 rebounds, 3 blocks and just 1 foul. It would be nice if #CradleRobber could play 20+ mpg but he can't. He's almost 35 years old and his knees are close to shot. Fans have to look at him like Alonzo Mourning in the 2006 title run. He's instant energy off the bench on the glass and in the paint. In fact, if he comes up with another performance like Game 1 in this series, I'll stop calling him #CradleRobber and call him #WhiteZo or #ZoWhite on twitter. Whichever's better.

Dwyane Wade and LeBron James were the 2nd-most productive HEAT players. They combined to increase the HEAT's chance of winning the game by 45%. On a per-48 minutes basis, they increased the HEAT's chance of winning by 56% but that's not enough. When they Spo-proofed the Pacers series last year, they combined to increase the HEAT's chance of winning by 62% over 6 games and 77% in the four victories. The good news is that Wade's knees didn't look like a problem in Game 1, but I wonder if the 6 fouls in the 2nd half were a sign of fatigue.

Wade's 2nd half wind will be something to keep an eye on if Chris Bosh isn't going to help he and LeBron Spo-proof the games in this series. Bosh's production was below average with just 0.065 est.WP48. He only increased the HEAT's chance of winning by 4% with more fouls (3) than rebounds (2). He called himself the X-Factor before the series. Let's see if he stays out of early foul trouble and plays like an X-Factor in Game 2.

Least Productive HEAT Players

Shaved Monkey Nuts was the least productive HEAT player with -0.321 est.WP48. He decreased the HEAT's chance of winning by 19% with more fouls and turnovers (6) than points, steals and rebounds (5).

No, Battier can't guard David West but West wasn't a big problem. He was in foul trouble and kept off the glass while shooting 3-6 from the floor and just 2-6 from the free throw line in the 2nd half. The bigger problem was Tyler Hansbrough who came off the bench and destroyed Shaved Monkey Nuts for 8 points and 4 rebounds in the 3rd quarter. Hansbrough ended up the most productive Pacer in the game with 0.555 est.WP48 and increased the team's chance of winning by 13%.

Shaved Monkey Nuts has been terrible the entire playoffs, but the other reserves have carried him to make the bench an advantage for the HEAT. That wasn't the case in Game 1 of the ECF.

Ray Allen and Norris Cole combined to decrease the HEAT's chance of winning by 18% with 1-12 shooting from the floor (Allen's fault) and 6 turnovers (Cole's fault). Combined with Shaved Monkey Nuts, they completely negated #CradleRobber's impact on the game and turned what was supposed to be a HEAT advantage into a weakness. The HEAT reserves decreased their team's chance of winning by 2% while the Pacers reserves increased their team's chance of winning by 13%.

It's not like any of this was unexpected, however. The pregame post on this blog warned about Allen possibly struggling against the Pacers' big perimeter defenders and Cole cooling off against the best defense in the NBA at shutting down the shooting percentages of point guards.

Yet, Erik Spoelstra didn't have any counters ready for those scenarios. He played Cole MORE minutes after Chalmers went out with injury instead of going with Wade at PG and left Mike Miller sitting on the bench as Ray launched bricks - as if he forgot that Miller's shooting efficiency was 53% against the Pacers in last year's series... #CreanIn14.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced stats estimated for all players from the box score and play-by-play for Game 1.

Boxscore and play-by-play data taken from PopcornMachine.net and NBA.com.

HEAT Produced: Key Matchups for 2013 Eastern Conference Finals

2013-05-22T17:37:00.000-04:00

Based on HEAT players' production in the playoffs so far, going big with a lineup of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Ray Allen, Chris Bosh and Udonis Haslem could be the key to dominating matchups with the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals.

There Are No Small Defenders, Only Small Forwards

LeBron James is the most productive HEAT player in the playoffs with an estimated 1.9 wins produced and increased the team's chances of winning by 25% per 48 minutes. In the regular season, LeBron increased the HEAT's chances of winning by 34%. The decline can be attributed to playing two tough defenses in the first 2 rounds. The Bucks and Bulls ranked 5th and 6th this season in production allowed at small forward. LeBron averaged 6.2 turnovers per 48 minutes against Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and the Bucks in the 1st round and only shot 48% against Jimmy Butler and the Bulls in the Eastern Conference Semis. Paul George and the Pacers allowed the lowest production at small forward in the NBA, ranking 1st in opposing SF shooting percentage and just 17th in turnovers. LeBron should be able to maintain a similar level of production he provided against the Bulls in the Eastern Conference Finals and increase the HEAT's chances of winning by 20-25% per 48 minutes.

The real problem George and the Pacers defense pose for the HEAT at SF could be when they go small with LeBron at power forward and Dwyane Wade or Ray Allen at SF. Wade and Allen's production at shooting guard increased the HEAT's chances of winning by 27% per 48 minutes against the Bulls, but they decreased the HEAT's chances of winning by 51% per 48 minutes in their stints at SF (41 minutes total for the series). The big problem was Wade and Allen's shooting efficiency declined from 57% and 65% at SG to 22% and 15% at SF.

Since limiting the opponents' shooting efficiency is what the Pacers defense does best against small forwards, Coach Erik Spoelstra may want to consider changing his rotation to go with a big lineup that has LeBron at SF and Wade and Allen in the backcourt without a traditional point guard instead of the 3-guard lineup he used for stretches against the Bulls. Of course, this could be a moot point since the Pacers play Lance Stephenson (6-5, 210 lbs) at SG. His size could pose the same trouble for Wade and Allen that Butler did at 6-7, 220 lbs.

If Spoelstra doesn't play 3 guards, then he will probably play Shaved Monkey Nuts (aka Shane Battier) at PF. That won't help much since Shaved Monkey Nuts is the least productive HEAT player in the playoffs with an estimated -0.6 wins produced. He's decreased the HEAT's chances of winning by 15% per 48 minutes against the Bucks and Bulls. His performance is below average in every category except free throw shooting and turnovers. Last year, he decreased the HEAT's chances of winning by 7% against the Pacers. LeBron and Wade were able to Spo-proof playoff games when Shaved Monkey Nuts was on the floor last year, but it may be up to LeBron and Bosh if Wade's knee holds him back.

Udonis Haslem and Chris Bosh are the best choices for Spoelstra at PF when he goes big, but I don't expect Bosh to see any more minutes at PF vs. the Pacers than he played against the Bulls because Cradle Robber (aka Chris Andersen) can't carry the additional workload like UD can. Cradle Robber's playing less than 14 minutes per game in the playoffs and has only played more than 20 minutes 26 times out of 133 games in the last 3 seasons. In limited minutes though, Cradle Robber's been productive. He ranks 3rd on the HEAT in estimated wins produced during the playoffs and increased the team's chances of winning by 40% per 48 minutes.

Productive big men aside, the advantage of playing a 3-guard lineup is that Norris Cole is the 2nd-most productive HEAT player in the playoffs with an estimated 1.1 wins produced. He increased the HEAT's chances of winning by 27% per 48 minutes against the Bucks and Bulls. Cole's playoff production is above average in shooting efficiency, scoring, defensive rebounding and turnovers. His shooting efficiency was 72% against the Bulls. The Pacers defense posted the 4th lowest shooting percentage allowed by opposing PGs in the regular season while the Bulls ranked just 13th - and that was with a healthy Kirk Hinrich. Don't expect Cole to shoot so well this series, but he would be the X-factor if he does.

Off the Hook Off the Bench

Cole, Allen and Cradle Robber are key to the HEAT matchups with the Pacers because they've been dominant off the bench in the playoffs. LeBron was the only HEAT player more productive than them against the Bucks and Bulls. If that production continues, then the HEAT should have no problem beating the Pacers in 5 games. If it doesn't, then the HEAT will need Wade, Haslem and Bosh to assume larger roles in the starting unit.

HEAT Produced: 2013 Playoffs

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced stats estimated from all 2013 playoff box scores.

HEAT Produced: 2013 Eastern Conference Semifinals

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced stats estimated from the box scores of the 2013 Eastern Conference Semifinals against the Chicago Bulls.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced estimated from box score stats for the Bulls in the Eastern Conference Semis.

2013 NBA Playoffs: Conference Finals Picks

2013-05-19T08:28:00.000-04:00

Miami HEAT and San Antonio Spurs will be facing off when the Conference Finals are all said and done.

Conference Semis Recap:
Picked winner of 3 series correctly, picked correct number of games in 1 series, picked 1 series incorrectly.

HEAT vs. Bulls: HEAT ~~sweep~~ (Bullshit happens)
Knicks vs. Pacers: Pacers in 6
Thunder vs. Grizzlies: ~~Thunder in 7~~
Spurs vs. Warriors: Spurs ~~in 5~~

The Thunder and Warriors committed the most egregious sin a team can commit against its fans in the NBA Playoffs - losing an elimination game at home. The Western Conference is clearly bitch made.

On to the Conference Finals...

HEAT vs. Pacers

Prediction: HEAT in 5

Explanation: The HEAT beat the Pacers in 6 games without Bosh and with Wade on 1 leg. If this team is better than last season's squad, then they should beat the Pacers in 5. This series will be determined by Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and the point guards. The HEAT need Wade to perform at a high level against Lance Stephenson despite the pain from his knee bruise and they need Bosh to outplay Roy Hibbert to beat the Pacers in 5 games. The point guards could be the X-Factor. If George Hill's play suffers from his concussion or Norris Cole continues to play like a competent NBA point guard, then it could be a sweep. Of course, if Wade struggles with the knee, Bosh plays soft against Hibbert or Mario Chalmers and Cole get outplayed by Hill and D.J. Augustin then the series could turn the other way.

Spurs vs. Grizzlies

Prediction: Spurs in 7

Explanation: The Spurs' best players are old and injured. The Spurs role players are young and fairly healthy. Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan will have just enough against Mike Conley Jr, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol for Kawhi Leonard to push them over the top. In order to win, the Grizzlies need the best backcourt defense in the NBA to shut down Ginobili with Tony Allen while Gasol shuts down Parker's points in the paint. The Spurs should be able to squeeze enough mileage out of their old and injured backcourt in transition to prevent the Grizzlies defense from winning four games.

22 Twos: Will Steph Curry Get 40 and a W in Game 2?

2013-05-08T10:02:00.001-04:00

Will Steph Curry follow the example set by Chris Mullin 22 years ago in Game 2 of the Western Conference Semifinals against the San Antonio Spurs tonight?

The only time a player ever murdered an NBA team on their own shit in Game 2 of a Conference Semifinal in the last 50 years was 1991 when Mullin bodied the Lakers at the Great Western Forum by scoring 41 points with 86% shooting efficiency for a 125-124 win.

Mullin's homicidal shooting ended the Warriors' 22-year playoff losing streak to the Lakers despite Magic Johnson scoring a playoff career-high 44 points and falling short of a triple-double with 12 rebounds and 9 assists. Ironically, Mullin's big game in the Western Semis came after his Run TMC crew ran the #2 seed Spurs out of the playoffs in the first round.

Can Curry follow-up his 44-point, 11-assist performance in Game 1 with another 40-point effort to end the Warriors' 29-game losing streak in San Antonio? Most definitely. A 2nd 40-point game on the road, in a Game 2, 22 years after another Golden State Warrior did it? The stars seem to be aligning for a special night.

The haters that think he can't do it only get half a bar...

"Look at 'em, still sleeping"

HEAT Produced: 1 MVP Was Not Enough to Win Game 1 vs. Chicago Bulls

2013-05-07T01:38:00.000-04:00

LeBron James said he couldn't have won his 4th MVP without his 14 teammates and the Miami HEAT coaching staff. Turns out he couldn't win Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals without them, either.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

HEAT Production

LeBron was the most productive player in Game 1 vs. the Chicago Bulls. He increased the HEAT's chances of winning the game 27% by producing 0.292 est.WP48 from 24 points with 50% shooting efficiency, 8 rebounds, 7 assists, only 2 turnovers, 2 steals and 1 block. The problem for LeBron is that he only dominated the 2nd half instead of dominating the game. He actually decreased the HEAT's chances of winning by 4% with his production in the 1st half: 1-6 shooting, 0 free throw attempts. LeBron didn't take his first shot until there were 5 minutes left in the 1st quarter.

As bad as LeBron was in the 1st half, that wasn't his biggest problem. His biggest problem was that he got absolutely no support from his teammates. The other HEAT starters combined to only increase the team's chances of winning by 7% - that's a third of what average NBA teammates would have produced. The bench was even worse. The HEAT reserves only increased the team's chances of winning by 1% - that's 33 times worse than the average production of an NBA player.

Norris Cole was the only HEAT player that provided average production. Cole increased the HEAT's chances of winning 4% by producing 0.116 est.WP48 from 7 points on 4 shots in 18 minutes.

Shaved Monkey Nuts (Shane Battier) was the least productive HEAT player. He decreased the team's chances of winning 5% with -0.143 est.WP48 produced from 43% shooting efficiency, 1 turnover and 3 fouls in 18 minutes. There's no place for Shaved Monkey Nuts in this series if he can't shoot and Dwyane Wade's only going to grab 2 rebounds on a bad knee.

Now that they've lost a game to the Bulls, it's official - the 2013 HEAT are not as good as advertised.

Bulls Production

Joakim Noah was the most productive Bulls player. He increased Chicago's chances of winning the game 20% with 0.247 est.WP48 from 13 points and 11 rebounds. Noah was the anti-LeBron in this game - all his production came in the 1st half to keep the game close.

The Bulls won the game in the 4th quarter. They increased their chances of winning by 46% in the 4th quarter, largely due to Nate Robinson and Jimmy Butler. Those two combined to increase the team's chances of winning by 28% over the final 12 minutes of the game.

Nate increased the Bulls' chances of winning by 17% in the 4th quarter with 0.666 est.WP48 produced from 11 points (8 FREE THROWS!) and 6 assists. He single-handedly outplayed LeBron, who scored 15 points but only had 1 assist and only increased the HEAT's chances of winning by 15% in the 4th quarter.

Butler increased the Bulls' chances of winning by 11% in the 4th quarter with 0.451 est.WP48 produced from 11 points (4 free throws) and 5 rebounds.

The Bulls MADE more free throws (12) than the HEAT ATTEMPTED in the 4th quarter. Bitchassness never prospers. Ball game.

Carlos Boozer was the least productive Bulls player. He decreased the team's chances of winning by 12% with -0.229 est.WP48 produced from 6 points on 27% shooting efficiency, 0 offensive rebounds and 3 turnovers. Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau minimized his impact by not playing him in the 4th quarter. Taj Gibson balanced Boozer by increasing the Bulls' chances of winning by 13%. The HEAT can win the power forward matchup, but Erik Spoelstra will need to go with more Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller (with LeBron playing PF) with less Shaved Monkey Nuts to do it.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced stats estimated from the box score for Game 1 against the Bucks.

HEAT Check: Sweeping the Bulls is Mandatory

2013-05-06T12:46:00.002-04:00

There's no excuse for the Miami HEAT to need more than 4 games to eliminate the Chicago Bulls from the NBA playoffs.

Two years ago, the HEAT beat the Bulls in 5 games.

The 2011 Bulls outscored opponents by 8 points per 100 possessions. The 2013 Bulls outscored opponents by 0.3 points per 100 possessions. The 2011 Bulls put the NBA MVP on the floor with the 4th-best bench in the league. The 2013 Bulls don't have Derrick Rose, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer or Omer Asik.

The 2011 HEAT outscored opponents by 8.2 points per 100 possessions. The 2013 HEAT outscored opponents by 8.6 points per 100 possessions. The 2011 HEAT put a lesser version of LeBron James on the floor with a 1-footed Udonis Haslem and 8-fingered Mike Miller off the bench. The 2013 HEAT have a better version of LeBron with a healthier UD and Miller plus an improved bench led by Ray Allen.

The Bulls come into the 2013 Eastern Conference Semis half-dead with walking boots, spinal taps, flu-like symptoms and a sports psychologist. The HEAT come in with Dwyane Wade resting an injured right knee for 10 days just 1 year after he played Russell Westbrook to a standstill on 1 leg.

If those disadvantages don't add up to 1 less game for the Bulls, then it means the 2013 HEAT aren't as good as advertised.

I'm not ready to concede that and the HEAT shouldn't be, either. So the goal for this series should be a sweep. Plus, they owe those motherfuckers for ending the 27-game winning streak.

2013 NBA Playoffs: Conference Semi-Finals Picks

2013-05-05T09:08:00.001-04:00

The Spurs will blink before the HEAT and the Thunder will be pushed to the brink in the 2nd round of the 2013 NBA Playoffs.

1st Round Recap:
Picked winner of 5 series correctly, picked number of games correctly in 3 series, picked 3 series incorrectly

HEAT vs. Bucks: HEAT sweep
Knicks vs. Celtics: Knicks ~~in 7~~ (sorry ass senior citizens got eliminated on their homecourt)
Pacers vs. Hawks: ~~Hawks in 6~~ (never trust Josh Smith & a smile)
Nets vs. Bulls: ~~Nets in 7~~ (Nets could've stayed in Jersey if they weren't gonna take advantage of homecourt)

Thunder vs. Rockets: Thunder ~~sweep~~ (fuck you, Patrick Beverley)
Spurs vs. Lakers: Spurs sweep
Nuggets vs. Warriors: Warriors in 6
Clippers vs. Grizzlies: ~~Clippers in 5~~ (who knew Del Negro's incompetence would be magnified by Chris Paul's adoption of the #KobeSystem and Blake Griffin's inability to make it through a practice healthy?)

The Celtics, Hawks, Nets, Rockets and Lakers committed the most egregious sin a team can commit against its fans in the NBA Playoffs - losing elimination games at home.

Let's move on to the second round...

HEAT vs. Bulls

Prediction: HEAT sweep

Explanation: In order for the HEAT to remain undefeated in the playoffs, they will need Chris Bosh to play like an all-star center with Cradle Robber (Chris Andersen) and Norris Cole living up to the hype they generated in the 1st round - if Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng play. Worst case scenario for the HEAT is Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer or Nate Robinson have a big game and the Bulls steal one. The series goes no longer than 5 games against a half-dead Bulls squad that gets more infected by Derrick Rose's bitchassness everyday.

Knicks vs. Pacers

Prediction: Pacers in 6

Explanation: The Pacers could sweep the Knicks if Roy Hibbert and David West play like Kevin Garnett and Brandon Bass did in the Celtics' last 3 games of their 1st round series, but those two struggled at times against the Hawks. The only way the Knicks win the series is if their backcourt outplays the Pacers' guards and the defense with Iman Shumpert forces Paul George into several bad shooting nights without putting him on the free throw line for double-digit attempts. The 1st team to 90 points will probably win every game in this series. The Knicks will only be able to do that twice.

Thunder vs. Grizzlies

Prediction: Thunder in 7

Explanation: The Thunder had the 2nd-most productive bench in the NBA this season on a per-48 minute basis. They will need that depth playing the Grizzlies without Russell Westbrook. Durant will dominate the battle of the NBA's skinniest small forwards while Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins will make life tough for Zach Randolph. OKC will still need 7 games and big shots from Kevin Martin and Derek Fisher to beat the Grizzlies - again.

Spurs vs. Warriors

Prediction: Spurs in 5

Explanation: Injuries are the key factor for this series. If Stephen Curry and Andrew Bogut's ankles don't hold up with cortisone injections, then the Warriors will get swept. If they outplay Tony Parker and Tim Duncan while Manu Ginobili and Tiago Splitter struggle with their injuries, then the Warriors can make this series interesting. The problem for GSW is that the Spurs will still be the better team if it comes down to small ball as long as Popobitch's crew is healthy.

HEAT Produced: Ray Allen Was Most Productive Player in 1st Round Sweep

2013-04-29T05:04:00.000-04:00

<br /> <a href="http://msn.foxsports.com/video?videoid=6bb2db2b-b4d1-458c-bbfd-1621a75cd4b5&src=v5:embed:syndication:uuids&from=shareembed-syndication" target="_new" title="James: 'Most efficient I've played in my career'">Video: James: 'Most efficient I've played in my career'</A><br />

LeBron James said this is the most efficient he's ever played in his career, but Ray Allen was more efficient and productive sweeping the Bucks.

Most Productive HEAT Players

Allen led the HEAT in the 1st round of the playoffs with an estimated 0.8 wins produced for the series and 0.324 est.WP48. His performance was above average in every category except steals, blocks and assists. Allen was the 2nd-most productive HEAT player in Game 4. He increased the team's chance of winning by 26% with 16 points, 4 threes, 70% shooting efficiency and 7 rebounds.

LeBron finished 2nd on the HEAT with an estimated 0.7 wins produced in the sweep and 0.229 est.WP48. His performance was above average in every category except free throw shooting, offensive rebounds, steals and turnovers. LeBron was the most productive HEAT player in Game 4. He increased the team's chance of winning by 27% with 30 points on 65% shooting efficiency, 8 rebounds, 7 assists, 5 turnovers, 3 steals, 1 block and 3 fouls.

Least Productive HEAT Players

Every player in head coach Erik Spoelstra's nine-man rotation provided above average production in the series except one - Shaved Monkey Nuts (Shane Battier). He produced -0.4 estimated wins and his performance was below average in every category except turnovers.

Rashard Lewis wasn't part of the rotation against the Bucks but due to Wade's injury he got 8 minutes of playing time in Game 4. He was the least productive HEAT player in the game and decreased the team's chance of winning by 14% with poor shooting (1-5 from the floor, 0-3 from the arc), 1 turnover and 1 foul in 8 minutes.

Series Stats

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced stats for the HEAT estimated from the box scores for the series against the Bucks.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced stats for the Bucks estimated from the box scores for the series.

Game 4 Stats

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced estimated from the box score for Game 4.

HEAT vs. Bucks Game 4: Clean Sweep

2013-04-28T11:47:00.000-04:00

The HEAT injury report may have changed, but the mission hasn't: sweep the Bucks. If they play hard now, they can rest later.

Don't rest Dwyane Wade. Don't rely on the bench to win the game. Just roll out the best players and let them get on the same page to send a message to the NBA - "You can't fuck wit' the HEAT."

Put on the black jerseys and black out all hope that the Bucks belong on the same floor with the HEAT. Let the Nets and Bulls battle to a 6 or 7-game series with the thought in the back of their minds that they're just weakening themselves to get slaughtered in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Diminish any excitement generated by their games by forcing the national media to concede how worthless their battle will be for the next 6 days while the HEAT rest and get even better.

That's what I want to see in Game 4. A sweep is not enough. At least 2 other teams will sweep. Hell, even the Knicks may sweep and they haven't won a playoff series in over a decade!

A sweep is not enough. It needs to be a clean sweep. Erase any evidence the Bucks even made it to the 2013 playoffs. Sweep the Bucks and bleach their arena to leave no traces of the beatdown.

That's what I want to see in Game 4.

HEAT Produced: All the 3 Kings Men Win Game 3 in Milwaukee

2013-04-26T17:32:00.000-04:00

Ray Allen and the reserves helped the Miami HEAT beat the Bucks by double-digits in Milwaukee without a complete game from LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.

Conventional wisdom says role players' games don't travel in the playoffs, but that wasn't true for the HEAT in Game 3. In fact, the numbers indicate it was just the opposite.

Most Productive HEAT Players

The HEAT starters only increased the team's chances of winning by 27% with 0.269 est. wins produced in Game 3 while the reserves increased the HEAT's chances of winning by 44% with 0.438 est. wins produced. The game was decided by the reserves.

Ray Allen set the all-time record for 3-pointers made in the playoffs and was the most productive player in the game with 23 points on 75% shooting efficiency, 2 assists and 0 turnovers that increased the HEAT's chance of winning by 28.9% with 0.459 est.WP48 in 30 minutes.

Cradle Robber (Chris Andersen) was the 2nd-most productive HEAT player with 11 points on 5-5 shooting in 14 minutes with 6 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 turnover and 3 fouls that increased the HEAT's chance of winning the game by 18.3% with 0.631 est.WP48.

LeBron James (0.149 est.WP48) and Udonis Haslem (0.291 est.WP48) were the most productive starters. They increased the HEAT's chance of winning Game 3 by 10.2% and 9.7%, respectively.

Least Productive HEAT Players

The only poor performance off the bench for the HEAT in Game 3 came from Shaved Monkey Nuts (Shane Battier), but what else is new? Shaved Monkey Nuts decreased the HEAT's chance of winning Game 3 by 19.1% with 1-4 shooting, 1 turnover and 3 fouls for -0.334 est.WP48.

Mario Chalmers was the least productive HEAT starter in Game 3 with just 7 points on 33% shooting efficiency, 8 assists, 1 turnover, 1 steal and 3 fouls. His production decreased the HEAT's chance of winning by 2.9% in 28.2 minutes for -0.050 est.WP48.

Most Productive Bucks Players

The Bucks starters outplayed the HEAT and increased Milwaukee's chances of winning by 56% with 0.558 est. wins produced, but the reserves decreased the Bucks' chances of winning by 27% with -0.266 est. wins produced.

Ersan Ilyasova was the most productive Bucks player. He increased his team's chance of winning by 23% with 15 points on 63% shooting efficiency, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 turnovers, 3 steals and 1 block in 32.8 minutes for 0.336 est.WP48.

Larry Sanders was the 2nd-most productive Bucks player. He increased the team's chance of winning by 19% with 0.186 est. wins produced from 16 points, 70% shooting efficiency, 11 rebounds, 1 block, 2 steals and 5 fouls in 34.9 minutes for 0.256 est.WP48.

J.J. Redick was the most productive Bucks player off the bench by increasing the team's chance to win by 0.1%. Yes, the bench was that bad.

Least Productive Bucks Players

Samuel Dalembert anchored the shitty Bucks bench by decreasing the team's chance to win Game 3 by 13.8% by shooting 0-2 from the floor and 1-4 from the line with 2 turnovers and 3 fouls in just 9 minutes for -0.736 est.WP48.

Monta Ellis was the least productive Bucks starter. He decreased the team's chance of winning Game 3 by 5.7% with 0.057 est. wins produced from 7 points on 27% shooting efficiency with 2 turnovers and 2 fouls in 39.6 minutes for -0.070 est.WP48. He was still outplayed by Dwyane Wade, who managed to increase the HEAT's chance of winning by 5.5% despite shooting 1-12 from the floor.

The spreadsheet below lists all the wins produced stats estimated from the Game 3 box score.

HEAT Produced: Complete Team Effort Needed to Dominate Game 3

2013-04-25T17:14:00.000-04:00

Dwyane Wade, Mario Chalmers, LeBron James and Chris Bosh have not been on the same page at the same time in the first two games of the playoffs. That needs to change in order to get 1 step closer to achieving the true objective for the series against the Bucks.

The objective for the Miami HEAT isn't to just beat the Bucks and advance to the Eastern Conference Semis. The HEAT are too good for that. They should still be favored to beat the Bucks if Wade and LeBron were injured.

The objective for the HEAT isn't to just sweep the Bucks. The HEAT are too dominant for that. Nearly everyone except Brandon Jennings picked them to sweep the Bucks.

The objective for the HEAT is to CRUSH the Bucks in a fashion that lets everyone know they are marching towards history - 16-0.

Internal expectations for the HEAT when this team was put together were to be a dynasty winning #Not5Not6Not7 championships. External expectations were for the team to break not 1, not 2, not 3, but MANY NBA records and enter the debate for greatest team of all-time.

In order for the HEAT to establish their dominance over the Bucks, their backcourt and frontcourt stars need to align. LeBron and Bosh dominated Game 1 while Wade and Chalmers were outplayed by Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings. Game 2 was just the opposite. Wade and Chalmers dominated while LeBron and Bosh were outplayed by Mike Dunleavy and Ersan Ilysasova.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players produce 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because a team of average players form a team with a 0.500 winning percentage. Star players produce +0.200 Est.WP48 and great players produce +0.300 Est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Most Productive HEAT Players in Game 2

Chalmers was the most productive HEAT player in Game 2 thanks to efficient offense and defense in the HEAT's scheme that shutdown Jennings. Rio scored 9 points on 75% shooting efficiency with 2 assists and just 1 turnover on offense with 2 steals, 1 block, 3 defensive rebounds and 2 fouls on defense while helping the HEAT hold Jennings to 20% shooting efficiency. The end result was that Chalmers was nearly 5 times as productive as the average player in the game by producing 0.489 est. wins per 48 minutes (est.WP48) while Jennings was the least productive player in the game with -0.111 est.WP48.

Wade was the 2nd most productive HEAT player in Game 2 thanks to 21 points with 57% shooting efficiency, 2 offensive rebounds, 3 assists and 3 turnovers on offense with 2 steals, 5 defensive rebounds and just 1 foul on defense while helping the HEAT hold Ellis to just 7 points with 29% shooting efficiency and 4 turnovers. Wade was nearly 4 times as productive as the average player in the game by producing 0.385 est.WP48 while Ellis only produced 0.021 est.WP48.

The story for LeBron and Bosh was different.

Most Productive Bucks Players in Game 2

Dunleavy was the most productive Bucks player in Game 2 with 0.579 est.WP48 produced from 16 points with 78% shooting efficiency, 5 assists with 0 turnovers, 6 defensive rebounds and 2 steals with just 2 fouls.

While Dunleavy shot the lights out, LeBron struggled to score 19 points with just 43% shooting efficiency, 6 assists and 4 turnovers with 0 blocks, 1 steal and 2 fouls for a well-below average 0.017 est.WP48.

Ilyasova was the second-most productive Bucks player in Game 2 with 0.228 est.WP48 produced from 21 points with 71% shooting efficiency, 3 offensive rebounds, 1 assist and 0 turnovers.

Bosh and Ilyasova both took half their shots from outside the paint, but the HEAT big man only made 1 of his jumpers while the Bucks power forward knocked down 4 of 7. The result was that Bosh only scored 10 points with 45% shooting efficiency, 0 offensive rebounds, 1 assist and 2 turnovers on offense, and 0 blocks, 1 steal and 2 fouls on defense.

The spreadsheet below lists all the wins produced stats estimated from the boxscore for Game 2.

Game 3 Thoughts

The HEAT managed to beat the Bucks by double digits in Games 1 and 2 with only half of their attack playing dominant basketball. They'll need to form those two halves into a whole to dominate the Bucks in Milwaukee.

The game is a home-coming for Wade, so he'll have plenty motivation to perform well despite his knee injury. I didn't like Wade coasting through the 1st half of Game 2, but I don't want to see him go too hard to win his battle with Ellis and take himself out of his game.

LeBron should bounce back fine in Game 3. He usually performs well in Milwaukee, but those big performances don't always result in a win.

Chalmers will be tested by Jennings, who will be amped to back up his series prediction in front of the home crowd. Rio will need to keep his head on defense and stay away from committing dumb fouls when the trash talking starts. It would benefit the HEAT if Jennings comes out firing and Chalmers is inspired to attack him on defense.

Bosh needs to establish the jumpshot for the HEAT offense to be successful, but I want to see him find other ways to be productive if it's not falling. He can't take himself out the game just because the J isn't swishing. HEAT need him to make an impact in other ways if the backcourt and frontcourt are going to form like Voltron and dominate the Bucks in Game 3.

HEAT Produced: LeBron James and Shaved Monkey Nuts Need to Improve in Game 2

2013-04-23T07:33:00.004-04:00

LeBron James dominated the Bucks in Game 1 but there's 1 area he and the Miami HEAT need to improve in Game 2 to ensure the series ends next Sunday.

Room For Improvement

The HEAT beat the Bucks by 23 points, but the Thunder beat the Rockets by 29. The HEAT and Thunder are on a collision course for the Finals, so Miami isn't just playing against Milwaukee in this series - they're playing against OKC, too.

In his post-game interview, LeBron mentioned 2 areas the HEAT can improve in Game 2: turnovers and 3-point shooting. A look at the box score from Game 1 explains why.

Most Productive HEAT Player in Game 1

LeBron led the HEAT in est. wins produced in Game 1 and was four times more productive than the average player in the game, but there was 1 big flaw in his very efficient performance - 5 turnovers.

The series preview cited 2 areas the HEAT needed to focus on for a sweep - turnovers and offensive rebounding. The HEAT won the rebounding battle but lost the turnover battle. Three players need to take care of the ball to win the turnover battle - LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Mario Chalmers. They all had 3+ turnovers in Game 1. If the HEAT fix that in Game 2, they'll dominate like the Thunder did.

Least Productive HEAT Player in Game 1

Shaved Monkey Nuts (Shane Battier) was the least productive HEAT player with an estimated -0.1 wins produced with 19% shooting efficiency. Shaved Monkey Nuts' 1-7 3-point shooting suppressed what probably should have been a 30-point blowout if the HEAT had taken care of the ball.

The objective isn't just to beat the Bucks and advance. The objective is to make history. 16-0. It can be done. LeBron likes to talk about the HEAT getting better every game in the regular season. If he, Wade, Chalmers and Shaved Monkey Nuts get better in Game 2 then the HEAT will take 1 more step towards making the history they let slip away in Chicago.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced stats estimated from the boxscore in Game 1.

Miami HEAT vs. Milwaukee Bucks: What Will It Take For a Sweep?

2013-04-21T12:22:00.000-04:00

Will the HEAT sweep the Bucks? They got this. There are three keys for the team, players and coaches to focus on if they want to break out the brooms next week.

The Miami HEAT Index series preview at the NBA Mistress blog predicts the HEAT to sweep the Bucks, but the HEAT have never swept an opponent in the playoffs during the 3 Kings era. Whether it's a last second 3-pointer from Lou Williams, Chris Bosh's performance anxiety in Boston, a blowout in Chicago or Dwyane Wade's botched last second play in Madison Square Garden or injuries, the HEAT have dropped the broom.

The HEAT fell short of breaking the 1972 Lakers' record for a regular season winning streak. Will the team be focused to break the 2001 Lakers' record for best post-season record? Do they really want to play "as few games as possible" as Wade told Craig Sager?

If the HEAT are focused on a dominant playoff run, here are the keys to beginning it with a sweep of the Bucks...

Keys for the Team
There are four factors for team success in basketball: shooting efficiency, turnovers, offensive rebounds and free throws. The series preview at the NBA Mistress blog illustrates the HEAT have clear advantages over the Bucks in shooting efficiency and free throws, so the key for the team to sweep the Bucks will be turnovers and offensive rebounding. The games will be blowouts if the HEAT give their superior offense more opportunities to score.

The HEAT offense ranks 12th in turnovers and the Bucks defense ranks 6th in opp. turnovers. The HEAT defense ranks 4th in opp. turnovers and the Bucks offense ranks 3rd in taking care of the ball. Opponents committed turnovers more frequently against the HEAT defense after the all-star break, so the team will need to turn up the pressure trapping the Bucks to transform a weakness into a strength if they want the sweep.

The HEAT rank 26th in offensive rebounding and the Bucks rank 28th in defensive rebounding. The Bucks can be swept if HEAT players and coaches decide to exploit the Bucks' weakness on the defensive glass for 2nd chance points.

Keys for the Players
The HEAT need 3 players to transform turnovers from a weakness to a strength against the Bucks: Mario Chalmers, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James. Those 3 players lead the HEAT rotation in steals and turnovers. They'll need to take care of the ball in pick-and-rolls while forcing Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis into turnovers by trapping them or jumping the passing lanes.

The HEAT big men will be the keys to exploiting the Bucks' weakness on the defensive glass. The Bucks allowed more production by opposing centers than any other team in the NBA and ranked last in rebounds allowed by opposing centers. Chris Bosh's performance on the boards will be critical for a sweep. The spreadsheet below lists the production NBA teams allowed by opposing centers this season in terms of Win Score per 48 minutes (see the HEAT Produced Page for an explanation of Win Score).

If Chalmers helps the HEAT win the turnover battle and Bosh helps them win the battle on the boards, then all the HEAT need is for Dwyane Wade and LeBron James to play like future hall-of-famers and dominate the matchups at their position.

Keys for Coaches

The keys for Erik Spoelstra and his staff to get the HEAT a sweep are make sure the rotation and play-calling is tight.

PG is the only weakness in the HEAT rotation against the Bucks and the weak link in that chain is Norris Cole. Spo has to eliminate him from the rotation and let LeBron, Wade and Ray Allen play backup PG if the HEAT want to sweep the Bucks. Giving Cole's minutes to Allen (or maybe Mike Miller) increases the HEAT's chances of winning by at least 2%, based on estimated wins produced per 48 minutes (see the HEAT Produced Page for an explanation of estimated wins produced).

Est. WP48 in Position Matchups with Cole

PG - HEAT: 0.079 | Bucks: 0.121

SG - HEAT: 0.165 | Bucks: 0.035

SF - HEAT: 0.200 | Bucks: 0.000

PF - HEAT: 0.108 | Bucks: 0.092

C - HEAT: 0.125 | Bucks: 0.075

TOTAL - HEAT: 0.678 estimated winning percentage vs. Bucks

Giving Cole's minutes to Allen and Miller increases the HEAT's est. WP48 at PG from 0.079 to 0.103, which increases the HEAT's likelihood of winning from 67.8% to 70.1%.

Another reason that cutting Cole out the lineups and shortening the rotation is a key for the HEAT to sweep the Bucks is it allows the team to play from the strength of their starting lineup. HEAT starters led the NBA this season in est.WP48 with a 0.821 winning percentage. The HEAT bench only produced 0.544 est.WP48 (13th in the NBA) while the Bucks bench produced 0.571 est.WP48 (9th). The more the HEAT starters play against the Bucks bench instead of Shaved Monkey Nuts (Shane Battier) and the Little 12, the more likely the HEAT will be to sweep.

As for play-calling, #PaceNSpace is the key to a sweep. The HEAT rank 1st in scoring off spot-up jumpers and 1st in transition offense while the Bucks defense against those plays just ranks 12th and 13th, according to mysynergysports.com.

2013 NBA Playoffs: 1st Round Picks

2013-04-20T14:17:00.000-04:00

Expect 3 sweeps and 2 Game Sevens in the first round of the 2013 NBA playoffs.

HEAT vs. Bucks

Prediction: HEAT sweep

Explanation: The only advantage the Bucks have going into the series is at PG and maybe that's why Brandon Jennings felt so confident talking shit. The problem for Jennings is the HEAT's PG production will improve in the playoffs when Erik Spoelstra removes Norris Cole from the rotation. The only hope for the Bucks to steal a game is to go big in the frontcourt with John Henson or Samuel Dalembert playing with Ersan Ilyasova and Larry Sanders, but I doubt Bucks coach Jim Boylan will place that much trust in a rookie or rarely used vet in the playoffs.

Nets vs. Bulls

Prediction: Nets in 7

Explanation: In a series that will be a #RockFight offensively, who will stop Reggie Evans from eating glass and spitting out 2nd chance points for the Nets? The Bulls can't win this series without a healthy Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson to help Carlos Boozer battle on the boards. Of course, all bets are off if Deron Williams gets injured so expect Kirk Hinrich to thug it up on defense.

Pacers vs. Hawks

Prediction: Hawks in 6

Explanation: Pacers are the better team by a wide margin but the media will be annoying as fuck if they advance to the Eastern Conference Semis. The Pacers will go from being ignored to the focus of either a bunch of Knicks-Pacers flashbacks from the 1990s or Larry Bird interviews if they face the Celtics. In order for the Hawks to pull off the upset, Al Horford will need Josh Smith and Jeff Teague to join him in having a big series against the Pacers D. George Hill's groin injury may make that easier, but it will take a miracle for Josh Smith to outplay David West. I'll be rooting for one.

Knicks vs. Celtics

Prediction: Knicks in 7

Explanation: The Knicks should beat the Celtics in 5 games, but I think the series will come down to the last man standing as both teams struggle with injuries. Tyson Chandler's got a bad neck, Paul Pierce has played with nerve damage all season and Kevin Garnett's got #OldManProblems. Plus, I'm a Hoyas fan, so I'll be rooting for Jeff Green to come up big against Carmelo Anthony.

Thunder vs. Rockets

Prediction: Thunder sweep

Explanation: Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka will dominate their frontcourt matchups and Russell Westbrook will be the best player in the backcourt. James Harden? OKC will make him look average in this series.

Clippers vs. Grizzlies

Prediction: Clippers in 5

Explanation: The Clippers' bench enabled the starters to average the fewest minutes per game in the NBA this season despite being the 4th-most productive. If Vinny Del Negro doesn't try to keep that deep bench happy and plays his starters an extra 10 minutes per game, then there's no button Lionel Hollins will be able to push for the Grizzlies to keep up. Hopefully the Grizzlies bandwagon crashes and burns after this series and we never have to hear about them being contenders again.

Nuggets vs. Warriors

Prediction: Warriors in 6

Explanation: The Nuggets have an advantage at every position, so the Warriors will need Mark Jackson to be creative and may need Steph Curry to perform like the best player in the series. The Warriors are the best defensive rebounding team in the NBA and the Nuggets are the best offensive rebounding team, so the series will likely be won on the glass. Jackson can either go big with Carl Landry at SF or go small and hope they score so many points that George Karl gets suckered into going small and forfeiting Denver's advantage on the offensive glass. It'll be a miracle if he chooses either option and they work, but that's what I'll be rooting for.

Spurs vs. Lakers

Prediction: Spurs sweep

Explanation: The Spurs have an advantage at four positions and are capable of neutralizing Dwight Howard (not saying they will, but they're capable). Popobitch owns D'Antoni when it comes to coaching strategies. This series will be easy work.

Week 24 NBA Fanalyst Rankings: Award Tour

2013-04-15T14:39:00.000-04:00

It’s the last week of the regular season, all 8 playoff spots are clinched and 6 of the playoff seeds are set. That means the only thing left to do is reflect on the season and analyze who the award winners will be in the last Fanalyst Rankings of the regular season.

There are two sides to every NBA Power Ranking: the Fanalytical and the Fanatical. As a Miami HEAT blogger living on the east coast, MHI plays the fanalyst for the Eastern Conference. As a Denver Nuggets fan living west of the Mississippi River, Mrs. NBA plays the fan and provides the slander. The roles are reversed for the Western Conference.

1. Miami HEAT (64-16, prev. rank: 1)

MHI: LeBron James is the Most Valuable Player in the NBA this season and he didn’t even play the games all-out at full-speed. That says a lot about how good he is and even more about how good the HEAT will be in the playoffs when he goes full throttle.

Mrs. NBA: Miami is the best blah blah blah.

2. Brooklyn Nets (47-33, prev. rank: 2)

MHI: Deron Williams passed Tony Parker in Wins Produced by PGs after getting injections in his ankles and playing himself into shape while Parker broke down, so maybe he’s played himself onto the All-NBA 3rd Team, but he’s still produced less wins than Steph Curry. If the Nets had taken the opportunity presented by Hurricane Sandy to REALLY give back to the community, maybe 1 of their players could win the Citizenship Award but all I heard D-Will did during the storm was watch UFOs.

Mrs. NBA: YAWN

3. Indiana Pacers (49-31, prev. rank: 3)

MHI: The Pacers allow the lowest level of production at SF in the NBA. That should be enough for Paul George to follow-up his all-star selection with a selection to the All-Defense team. Will he provide enough offense for the Pacers to meet the HEAT in the Eastern Conference Finals?

Mrs. NBA: Unless Paul George morphs into a superstar in the playoffs, Indiana's playoff stint may be a short one.

4. New York Knicks (53-27, prev. rank: 4)

MHI: Carmelo Anthony won’t win MVP but he will make his 6th All-NBA team. The Knicks won’t make the Eastern Conference Finals if Tyson Chandler can’t stay healthy after battling Kevin Garnett and the Celtics in the 1st round.

Mrs. NBA: They'll be lucky to advance past the second round.

5. Chicago Bulls (43-37, prev. rank: 5)

MHI: Joakim Noah was the 2nd-most productive center in the NBA this season, but injuries may prevent him from being named to an All-NBA team. Injuries may also prevent him and the Bulls from getting out the 1st round of the playoffs.

Mrs. NBA: Bulls are still defensive and all that, but when are going to discuss the elephant in the room: Derrick Rose.

6. Atlanta Hawks (44-36, prev. rank: 6)

MHI: There will be no awards for the Hawks this season. Al Horford started off the season too slow and Josh Smith is fucking Josh Smith. Will he be a max player for the Hawks if they pull off an upset in the 1st round of the playoffs? Doubt it.

Mrs. NBA: AtLOLanta.

7. Boston Celtics (41-39, prev. rank: 7)

MHI: The only awards the Celtics are eligible to win this season are lifetime achievement awards for Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. It could be one of the 5 greatest achievements in their careers if they manage to lead a legion of D-Leaguers into the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

Mrs. NBA: Who cares when they'll be eviscerated round one.

8. Detroit Pistons (28-52, prev. rank: Unranked)

MHI: Andre Drummond’s production in his rookie season helped the Pistons to win more division and conference games than the Milwaukee Bucks. Drummond should make the All-Rookie 1st Team and the Bucks should be ashamed of the way they limped into the playoffs. #FearTheDeer my ass.

Mrs. NBA: The Pistons??? LOL. The East sucks.

Week 23 NBA Fanalyst Rankings: Anti-Tanking Edition

2013-04-08T13:44:00.000-04:00

The NBA season has reached that point where teams start tanking games for the draft lottery or the playoffs. This week’s Fanalyst Rankings analyzes how the best teams in the East would rank if the NBA implemented a new playoff system that placed more emphasis on division and conference records.

There are two sides to every NBA Power Ranking: the Fanalytical and the Fanatical. As a Miami HEAT blogger living on the east coast, MHI plays the fanalyst for the Eastern Conference. As a Denver Nuggets fan living west of the Mississippi River, Mrs. NBA plays the fan and provides the slander. The roles are reversed for the Western Conference.

1. Miami HEAT (60-16, prev. rank: 1)

MHI: The HEAT have the best division record in the Southeast at 13-1 and the best conference record in the East at 35-11 to establish themselves as the #1 seed. With just a 2-game lead in the conference over the streaking Knicks with 6 games left, it’s a good thing LeBron James will play this week with Bucks, @Wizards (back-to-back), Celtics and Bulls on the schedule. HEAT should go 2-2 if LeBron plays 3 games this week.

Mrs. NBA: Yeah, Yeah. Miami is the best. BLAH BLAH BLAH.

2. Brooklyn Nets (44-32, prev. rank: 5)

MHI: The Nets have the best division record in the Atlantic at 9-4 (one-half game better than the Knicks). The Nets play 3 games in the division this week and need to go 2-1 with Sixers, @Celtics (back-to-back) and @Raptors on the schedule. Shouldn’t be a problem.

Mrs. NBA: How is Reggie Evans' missing tooth not a top story here? I could see why you would miss it as it's hard to tell he was even missing a tooth with all of those gaps.

3. Indiana Pacers (48-29, prev. rank: 2)

MHI: The Pacers have the best division record in the Central at 12-3 (3-game lead on the Bulls) but the worst conference record among division leaders at 30-17. The Pacers smashmouth style will be tested by Nets and @Knicks this week. If they can split those games, then they’ll go 2-1.

Mrs. NBA: Pacers really don't matter in terms of coming out of the East.

4. New York Knicks (50-26, prev. rank: 3)

MHI: The Knicks have the 2nd-best conference record in the East at 33-13 but only the 2nd-best division record in the Atlantic at 10-6 thanks to 2 losses to the Raptors. The Knicks’ 12-game winning streak will be tested this week with Wizards, @Bulls, @Cavs (back-to-back) and Pacers on the schedule. A 2-2 record wouldn’t be surprising but 3-1 is more likely. Either way, the streak ends this week.

Mrs. NBA: Are you still bitter about the Knicks beating the Heat? Are ya, Mosi? Still bitter? Are you? I think you are.

5. Chicago Bulls (42-34, prev. rank: 4)

MHI: The Bulls have the 2nd-best division record in the Central at 9-6 and the 4th-best conference record in the East at 31-15. If they could get their players on the floor, the Bulls could sweep this week with Raptors, Knicks, @Raptors (back-to-back) and @HEAT on the schedule. The more likely scenario is they end the league’s longest current winning streak for the 2nd time this season and finish the week 3-1.

Mrs. NBA: Bulls suck. That is all.

6. Atlanta Hawks (42-36, prev. rank: 6)

MHI: The Hawks have the 2nd-best division record in the Southeast at 11-5 and the 6th-best conference record in the East at 27-21. After ending last week with a D-League lineup losing by 2 in San Antonio, the Hawks should go 2-0 this week with just @Sixers and Bucks on the schedule.

Mrs. NBA: Does anyone care about the Hawks? Anyone?

7. Boston Celtics (40-37, prev. rank: 7)

MHI: The Celtics have the 3rd-best division record in the Atlantic at 7-7 and the 7th-best conference record in the East at 26-21. Their season is going nowhere fast but expect plenty of shit-talking from Jason Terry this week with Nets, @HEAT and @Magic on the schedule. The noise won’t drown out the reality of the Celtics going 1-2 this week.

Mrs. NBA: Hey, Celtics fans, claiming the NBA is rigged isn't going to make your squad suck any less.

8. Milwaukee Bucks (37-39, prev. rank: 8)

MHI: The Bucks have the 3rd-best division record in the Central at 7-9 and the 8th-best conference record in the East at 24-24. The only thing the Bucks are playing for at this point is to prove they can compete with the HEAT in the playoffs and get Larry Sanders voted as the Most Improved Player of Defensive Player of the Year. A 1-3 record this week with @HEAT, @Magic (back-to-back), @Hawks, @Bobcats (back-to-back) on the schedule won’t do much to convince people.

Mrs. NBA: Fear the De....nevermind.

Conference and division records can be found here.

Week 22 NBA Fanalyst Rankings: Game Winners, 2nd Edition

2013-04-01T17:13:00.000-04:00

The best teams in the NBA win most of their games going away, but when shit gets real they have to be able to win games with clutch shots. This week’s Fanalyst Rankings analyze the clutch shooting for the best teams in the East when teams are separated by no more than 3 pts with less than 24 seconds in the 4th quarter or overtime.

There are two sides to every NBA Power Ranking: the Fanalytical and the Fanatical. As a Miami HEAT blogger living on the east coast, MHI plays the fanalyst for the Eastern Conference. As a Denver Nuggets fan living west of the Mississippi River, Mrs. NBA plays the fan and provides the slander. The roles are reversed for the Western Conference.

1. Miami HEAT (58-15, prev. rank: 1)

MHI: The HEAT are shooting 9-17 in the clutch this season with 4 different players knocking down shots: LeBron James, Ray Allen, Chris Bosh and Shaved Monkey Nuts (aka Shane Battier). Whether or not they need to hit game-winners this week will be dictated by who’s available from coach Erik Spoelstra’s maintenance program with Knicks, @Bobcats and Sixers (back-to-back) on the schedule. Either way, it’s a 3-0 week for the HEAT.

Mrs. NBA: DENVER BEAT CHICAGO (WAS A GIFT), BUT MIAMI HEAT'S WIN STREAK ENDED THERE. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL *breathes* LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

2. Indiana Pacers (47-27, prev. rank: 2)

MHI: The Pacers talk tough but they don’t act tough in the clutch, shooting only 1-16. George Hill is the only 1 to make a shot (1-3) while the Pacers’ best players, David West (0-3) and Paul George (0-9), have come up way. They may need them to come through with @Clippers, Thunder and Wizards (back-to-back) on the schedule if they want to go 2-1 this week.

Mrs. NBA: Holla at me when they make it to the Eastern Conference Finals.

3. New York Knicks (46-26, prev. rank: 3)

MHI: Despite the reputation of Carmelo Anthony being a clutch shooter and J.R. Smith’s late-game heroics, the Knicks have only shot 2-9 in the clutch this season. The Knicks will need a healthy Tyson Chandler and a healthy improvement in those clutch numbers to do better than 1-3 this week with @HEAT, @Hawks (back-to-back), Bucks and @Thunder on the schedule.

Mrs. NBA: Thanks to their schedule, New York has won 8 games. Unfortunately it has gassed up FeLOLton. Miami needs to disembowel them.

4. Chicago Bulls (40-32, prev. rank: 6)

MHI: The Bulls are shooting 6-18 in the clutch this season and their best players in this area almost reads like a who’s-who of cap filler: Marco Bellinelli (2-5), Nate Robinson (2-6), Carlos Boozer (1-2) and Kirk Hinrich (1-1). The Bulls may need some clutch shooting in D.C. or Brooklyn this week to go 3-1 with @Wizards, @Nets, Magic and @Pistons on the schedule.

Mrs. NBA: Only thing good about Chicago, as of late, is their pizza. Wait. No. Not even that.

5. Brooklyn Nets (42-31, prev. rank: 4)

MHI: The Nets are shooting 5-12 in the clutch this season, thanks to Joe Johnson making 4 of his 5 game-winning shots while Deron Williams is 0-3. They may need one of their former all-star guards to come through in the clutch against the Bulls this week to go 2-1 with @Cavs, Bulls (back-to-back) and Bobcats on the schedule.

Mrs. NBA: Brooklyn got OWNED by Denver (without their PG) and Utah. They're useless.

6. Atlanta Hawks (41-33, prev. rank: 6)

MHI: The Hawks are shooting 6-8 in the clutch this season with Al Horford making 4 of 4 shots. Kyle Korver is 1-1 and Josh Smith is 0-1. The Hawks may need some clutch shooting this week against the Knicks to go 3-1 with Cavs, Knicks, Sixers and @Spurs (back-to-back) on the schedule.

Mrs. NBA: No comment

7. Boston Celtics (38-35, prev. rank: 7)

MHI: The Celtics are only shooting 6-18 in the clutch this season, but the emergence of Jeff Green (2-3 in the clutch) in recent weeks may help them turn that around as a better option than Paul Pierce (2-6) and Jason Terry (1-4). One of those 3 may need to be clutch in Minneapolis to go 3-1 this week with @Timberwolves, Pistons, Cavs and Wizards on the schedule.

Mrs. NBA: Boston still hasn't clinched their playoff spot... here's to hoping they miss it.

8. Milwaukee Bucks (35-37, prev. rank: 8)

MHI: The Bucks are shooting 4-11 in the clutch this season thanks to Monta Ellis (1-6). The Bucks may need to rely on Brandon Jennings (2-4 in the clutch) when things get tight if they want to do better than 2-2 with Bobcats, Timberwolves, @Knicks and Raptors (back-to-back) on the schedule.

Mrs. NBA: *YAWWWNNSS*

Week 21 NBA Fanalyst Rankings: Tony Starks Edition

2013-03-25T13:13:00.001-04:00

NBA teams face 2 battles: their opponents and their injuries. It takes Iron Men and depth to survive the grind of 82 games. This week’s Fanalyst Rankings analyzes the games missed by the starters for the best teams in the Eastern Conference.

There are two sides to every NBA Power Ranking: the Fanalytical and the Fanatical. As a Miami HEAT blogger living on the east coast, MHI plays the fanalyst for the Eastern Conference. As a Denver Nuggets fan living west of the Mississippi River, Mrs. NBA plays the fan and provides the slander. The roles are reversed for the Western Conference.

1. Miami HEAT (55-14, prev. rank: 1)

MHI: HEAT starters have only missed 11 games this season but Dwyane Wade is currently out with a sore right knee. The HEAT will need Chris Bosh and Ray Allen to step up to keep their winning streak alive if Wade’s out this week @Magic, @Bulls, @Hornets and @Spurs. Expect the HEAT to win their 30th game in a row.

Mrs. NBA: Yada Yada Yada "Miami Heat wins 27th straight game" Yada Yada Yada

2. Indiana Pacers (43-27, prev. rank: 2)

MHI: Pacers starters have missed 75 games this season as Danny Granger struggled with knee problems and David West is bothered by a lower back sprain. Lance Stephenson’s replaced Granger’s production and Tyler Hansbrough’s racked up double-doubles replacing West, but the Pacers will struggle for a 2-2 split this week against the Hawks, @Rockets, @Mavs (back-to-back) and @Suns.

Mrs. NBA: Pacers still blow and will never prosper as long as LeBron is a member of the Miami Heat.

3. New York Knicks (42-26, prev. rank: 7)

MHI: Knicks starters have missed 73 games this season as Iman Shumpert recovered from a torn ACL, Carmelo Anthony dealt with knee problems, Raymond Felton broke a finger, the list is endless. If Tyson Chandler doesn’t come back from his back injury, the Knicks will go 1-3 this week with @Celtics, Grizzlies (back-to-back), Bobcats and Celtics on the schedule. They can split those games if Chandler plays.

Mrs. NBA: AARP Knicks, FTW!

4. Brooklyn Nets (41-29, prev. rank: 3)

MHI: Nets starters have missed 26 games this season, which is low considering the physical problems that Deron Williams and Joe Johnson have struggled with this season. The Nets starting backcourt will struggle for a 1-2 week on the road against the Blazers, Nuggets and Jazz (back-to-back).

Mrs. NBA: Holla at me when the Nets win a playoff series this postseason.

5. Atlanta Hawks (39-31, prev. rank: 4)

MHI: Hawks starters have missed 31 games this season and Devin Harris left Sunday’s game with a foot injury. With Lou Williams already out for the season with a torn ACL, the Hawks may need Deshawn Stevenson to fill-in to go 2-2 this week @Pacers, @Raptors, @Celtics and vs. Magic (back-to-back).

Mrs. NBA: Are there any Hawks fans that even read this ranking? More importantly, do they even care?

6. Chicago Bulls (38-31, prev. rank: 5)

MHI: Bulls starters have missed 107 games with Derrick Rose missing the entire season recovering from a torn ACL and Richard Hamilton missing a third of it with a bad back. No Rose means a 1-2 week for the Bulls with HEAT, @Mavs and Pistons (back-to-back) on the schedule.

Mrs. NBA: Chicago just doesn't matter this season *thug shrug*

7. Boston Celtics (36-33, prev. rank: 5)

MHI: Celtics starters have missed 67 games with Avery Bradley missing the beginning of the season recovering from shoulder surgery and Rajon Rondo tearing his ACL shortly after Bradley returned. UPDATED: Celtics ~~could~~ will go 2-2 this week while Kevin Garnett recovers from a sprained ankle with Knicks, @Cavs (back-to-back), Hawks and @Knicks on the schedule.

Mrs. NBA: Jason Terry slays me...they can't beat Memphis, but Terry believes they can beat the Heat in a 7-game series? #BitchassnessNeverProspers

8. Milwaukee Bucks (34-35, prev. rank: 8)

MHI: Bucks starters have missed 37 games but their backcourt has made every start - that’s a gift and a curse. If Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis can make their shots this week, then the Bucks should go 2-1 with @Sixers, Lakers (back-to-back) and Thunder on the schedule.

Mrs. NBA: It's gonna be great when the Bucks are swept in round one.

Off the Index: 2013 March Madness Picks

2013-03-21T00:15:00.000-04:00

It's March Madness and that means it's time for brackets. Here are my brackets from Yahoo! and you can find the biases that influenced those picks listed in this post.

Week 20 NBA Fanalyst Rankings: Streaking Edition

2013-03-19T09:23:00.002-04:00

Since the Miami HEAT have the 2nd longest winning streak in NBA history, this week’s Fanalyst Rankings analyzes the longest winning streaks for the best teams in the East this season.

There are two sides to every NBA Power Ranking: the Fanalytical and the Fanatical. As a Miami HEAT blogger living on the east coast, MHI plays the fanalyst for the Eastern Conference. As a Denver Nuggets fan living west of the Mississippi River, Mrs. NBA plays the fan and provides the slander. The roles are reversed for the Western Conference.

1. Miami HEAT (51-14, prev. rank: 1)

MHI: Before winning 23 in a row, the HEAT’s longest winning streak this season was 6 games. If the HEAT can break their 10-game regular season losing streak in Boston, then they should have no problem extending the streak to 26 games this week against the Cavs, Pistons and Bobcats.

Mrs. NBA: 23 consecutive wins...La-Di-Da I'll be impressed when they can lose 23 consecutive games. GUH!

2. Indiana Pacers (40-26, prev. rank: 2)

MHI: The Pacers have put together 2 five-game winning streaks this season. A road game should be just what they need to forget about the home fans that don’t like them and end their 2-game losing streak. Should be a 3-1 week for the Pacers with @Cavs, Magic (back-to-back), Bucks and @Bulls (back-to-back) on the schedule.

Mrs. NBA: Indiana still blows like Paris Hilton's singing career

3. Brooklyn Nets (38-28, prev. rank: 4)

MHI: The Nets longest winning streak this season is 7 games from January 2nd to January 15th. They’ll end this week with a 2-game losing streak on a back-to-back @Clippers and @Suns for a 2-2 week.

Mrs. NBA: No sleep in Brooklyn. Until the playoffs. When they get steamrolled.

4. Atlanta Hawks (37-29, prev. rank: 7)

MHI: The Hawks longest winning streak this season is 6 games from November 16th to the 28th. They should extend their current winning streak to 6 games with victories over the Mavs, Bucks and Blazers at home for a 3-1 week.

Mrs. NBA: No comment

5. Chicago Bulls (36-29, prev. rank: 6)

MHI: The longest winning streak the Bulls have managed without Derrick Rose this season is 3 games. They should change that this week by winning their 4th in a row after beating the Nuggets, Blazers and Pacers for a 3-1 week.

Mrs. NBA: Thank you refs for the assist Monday night :)

6. Boston Celtics (36-29, prev. rank: 5)

MHI: The Celtics’ longest winning streak this season is 7 games from January 27th to February 10th after Rajon Rondo went out with a torn ACL. They won’t threaten that streak this week with Kevin Garnett out from an adductor strain and a 3-game road trip on the schedule. Looks like a 2-2 week for the Celtics against Heat, @Hornets, @Mavs and @Grizzlies (back-to-back).

Mrs. NBA: As soon as Boston fans realize their time is over,the better off they will be.

7. New York Knicks (38-26, prev. rank: 3)

MHI: The longest win streak for the Knicks this season is 6 games from November 2nd to the 15th. They should end a 5-game losing streak this week when the Magic come to MSG. If they don’t, then they could be looking at an 8-game skid.

Mrs. NBA: Poor little Knickerbockers. Some things don't change.

8. Milwaukee Bucks (33-32, prev. rank: 8)

MHI: The Bucks’ longest winning streak this season is 4 games from December 7th to the 14th. This week should be up-and-down with Ersan Ilyasova day-to-day from back and hip problems and Blazers, @Hawks (back-to-back), @Pacers and Hawks on the schedule. A 2-2 split is all fans should expect.

Mrs. NBA: Are we still doing the "Fear The Deer" thing?

Week 19 NBA Fanalyst Rankings: Best Supporting Cast

2013-03-11T19:45:00.000-04:00

Video: Heat humble Pacers, extend streak to 18

The Miami HEAT blew out the Pacers with LeBron James producing a season-low 13 points while Mario Chalmers (26 points) and Chris Bosh (24 points), the team’s 5th and 3rd leading scorers, stepped up to lead the team in scoring. This week’s Fanalyst Rankings analyze the supporting casts for the best teams in the Eastern Conference.

There are two sides to every NBA Power Ranking: the Fanalytical and the Fanatical. As a Miami HEAT blogger living on the east coast, MHI plays the fanalyst for the Eastern Conference. As a Denver Nuggets fan living west of the Mississippi River, Mrs. NBA plays the fan and provides the slander. The roles are reversed for the Western Conference.

1. Miami HEAT (47-14, prev. rank: 1)

MHI: LeBron leads the HEAT in scoring with 27 ppg and has produced 36% of the team’s wins this season, according to thenbageek.com. The HEAT’s supporting cast has produced 28 wins this season with an average of 0.108 wins produced per 48 minutes per player (an average NBA player produces 0.100 WP48). Erik Spoelstra may need the supporting cast this week on the 2nd night of a back-to-back in Philadelphia to keep the winning streak alive and compete with a deep bench in Milwaukee. The supporting cast should come through to go 4-0 this week - unless Spo puts the maintenance program into effect.

Mrs. NBA: 18 wins? 18 wins? 18 wins? Pffttt. Impress me when you have the best player on the planet on your team, what was that you just screamed? Oh, yeah.,...that's right. You have the king on Miami's throne...I gotta find another excuse to hate...hold on tight.

2. Indiana Pacers (39-24, prev. rank: 2)

MHI: Paul George leads the Pacers with 18 ppg and has produced 22% of the team’s wins this season. The supporting cast has produced 34 wins this season with an average of 0.126 WP48. George and the Pacers get 2 days to recover from their beatdown by Biscayne Bay and should bounce back to go 3-0 this week with Timberwolves, Lakers and @Sixers (back-to-back) on the schedule.

Mrs. NBA: Indiana. Indiana. Indiana. What's an export of Indiana outside of Larry Bird, corn, and John Mellancamp? Hibbert and company all talk and no bite, like a dollar store tramp.

3. New York Knicks (38-22, prev. rank: 3)

MHI: Carmelo Anthony leads the Knicks with 28 ppg but has only produced 2% of the team’s wins this season. Melo’s supporting cast has produced 38 wins this season with an average of 0.145 WP48. While Melo and Amare Stoudemire struggle with knee injuries, the load will be too heavy for Tyson Chandler to carry the supporting cast to more than 1 win on the road at Warriors, Nuggets, Blazers and Clippers. It could be an 0-4 week for the Knicks.

Mrs. NBA: Amar'e is injured. What's new. Might as well buy him a nice business suit; he's gonna be on the bench for the long-term; who's gonna save the team? Mr. Bricks, J.R. Smith? Oh, burn. Melo is injured, too? Hey, wait, they have ole Kenyon Martin, Steve Novak, and Raymond Felton to cure them of their losing woes. Yea, Knicks, you're being chose......to lose.

4. Brooklyn Nets (37-26, prev. rank: 4)

MHI: Brook Lopez leads the Nets with 18.6 ppg and has produced 15% of the team’s wins this season. The supporting cast has produced 26 wins this season with an average of 0.092 WP48. The Nets have made changes in their rotation, like benching Kris Humphries to develop Mirza Teletovic. If those changes payoff, the Nets should go 2-1 this week @Sixers and vs. Hornets & Hawks.

Mrs. NBA: Brooklyn is still so trendy, not quite like Fendhi. Without scoring from D-Will or Joe, their offense really blows.

5. Boston Celtics (34-28, prev. rank: 8)

MHI: Paul Pierce leads the Celtics with 19 ppg and has produced 17% of the teams wins this season. The supporting cast has produced 28 wins this season with an average of 0.102 WP48 that drops to 0.090 WP48 without Rajon Rondo. The Celtics won’t miss Rondo as long as Kevin Garnett stays healthy enough for them to blowout the Bobcats and Raptors for a 3-0 week to stay in the East’s top 5.

Mrs. NBA: No Rondo, no prob. Until they get into the postseason, and keep up with the opponents' lobs.

6. Chicago Bulls (35-28, prev. rank: 6)

MHI: Luol deng leads the Bulls with 16 ppg and has produced 18% of the team’s wins this season. The supporting cast has produced 27 wins this season with an average of 0.100 WP48. The Bulls should go 2-0 this week @Kings and @Warriors. The more important issue is whether the 5 days off will be enough for Derrick Rose to work his way back onto the active roster.

Mrs. NBA: Bulls offense is a joke, then you have Derrick Rose who's mentally a choke. Which is worse? I don't know, but the Bulls playoff hopes are about to burst.

7. Atlanta Hawks (34-28, prev. rank: 5)

MHI: Al Horford leads the Hawks with 17 ppg and has produced 25% of the team’s wins this season. The supporting cast has produced 22 wins this season with an average of 0.082 WP48. If Josh Smith doesn’t melt down in crunch time against the Lakers again, the Hawks should go 3-1 this week @HEAT, vs. Lakers (back-to-back), vs. Suns and @Nets.

Mrs. NBA: Josh Smith went on record to say it's hard to play in Atlanta, worst sports town in the country. Might wanna tell Ferry to grab that Mylanta, cuz Smith is outtie.

8. Milwaukee Bucks (32-29, prev. rank: 7)

MHI: Monta Ellis leads the Bucks with 19 ppg but has only produced 8% of the team’s wins this season. The supporting cast has produced 27 wins this season with an average of 0.104 WP48. If Ersan Ilyasova can play after missing games with a bone bruise in his knee last week, then he and his teammates should carry the Bucks to a 3-1 record this week.

Mrs. NBA: Fear the deer? You heard they want Miami in the first round, Brandon thinks it'll be rosy. You might wanna report him to Stern, cuz dude has been smoking the chronic. Burn.

LeBron James: I Choose Not To Dunk

2013-03-06T11:26:00.002-05:00

There's a simple explanation for LeBron James' decision to avoid the Slam Dunk Contest.

When LeBron launched pre-game dunk contests after the disappointing 2013 Slam Dunk Contest, Magic Johnson offered a $1 million to the winner of the next Slam Dunk Contest if LeBron participated. LeBron declined with the comment, "I don't do it for anyone besides our team."

The whole exchange was like an episode of Seinfeld.

There was a lot of commentary defending LeBron by people who make money off his performance on the court and a lot of commentary questioning LeBron by people who make money on him for what they say off the court.

At the end of the day, it's real simple: There's no valid excuse for LeBron to avoid the dunk contest. It's bitchassness, pure and simple.

LeBron always talks about his understanding for the history of the game, so why doesn't he follow the great superstars before him and participate in the dunk contest?

Does LeBron understand how weak it is to refuse to do something Dwight Howard's lame ass found the courage to do - 3 times?

I wouldn't be surprised if LeBron was using the pre-game dunk contests to build up his confidence with positive reinforcement from the "oohs and aahs" of fans until he got the nerve to go and compete in the real Slam Dunk Contest.

Refusing to participate in the dunk contest doesn't mean LeBron's not a great player, but talking and tweeting about it before the dunk contest and then saying, "I choose not to dunk," when the time comes is about as wack as Dwyane Wade's new nickname.

Week 18 NBA Fanalyst Rankings: Finishing Moves

2013-03-04T20:07:00.000-05:00

LeBron James put the nail in the coffin for the Knicks with a hammer dunk on Sunday. This week’s Fanalyst Rankings analyzes who has the best finishing moves for the best teams in the East.

There are two sides to every NBA Power Ranking: the Fanalytical and the Fanatical. As a Miami HEAT blogger living on the east coast, MHI plays the fanalyst for the Eastern Conference. As a Denver Nuggets fan living west of the Mississippi River, Mrs. NBA plays the fan and provides the slander. The roles are reversed for the Western Conference.

1. Miami HEAT (43-14, prev. rank: 1)

MHI: The HEAT have outscored opponents by 101 points in the 4th quarter. LeBron James leads the team in every category of the boxscore for the 4th quarter except minutes and threes (Ray Allen), offensive rebounds (Chris Bosh) and steals (Dwyane Wade). LeBron may be needed for the 4th quarter in Minnesota on the 2nd night of a back-to-back but should be able to rest until the 4th quarter of the Pacers game on Sunday and lead the HEAT to a 4-0 week and 18 wins in a row.

Mrs. NBA: LeBron is the best player on the planet; Carmelo Anthony couldn't handle it. Don't believe me? Go have a word with his knees...
2. Indiana Pacers (38-22, prev. rank: 2)

MHI: Pacers have outscored opponents by 51 points in the 4th quarter. David West leads the team in 4th quarter buckets but Paul George carries most of the burden by leading the team in 4th quarter threes, free throws, defensive rebounds, assists, steals and points. Indiana will need George & West to close out the Celtics in the 4th quarter, rest the 4th quarter against the Magic and hang close with the HEAT to go 2-1 this week.

Mrs. NBA: Indiana has went on a winning tear over the past 10 plus games; but they'll still need offensive means in late-game situations especially when playoffs come.
3. New York Knicks (35-21, prev. rank: 3)

MHI: Knicks have outscored opponents by 135 points in the 4th quarter. Carmelo Anthony leads the team in 4th quarter scoring, fouls drawn and free throws, but J.R. Smith is just as important leading the Knicks in 4th quarter minutes, buckets, threes and defensive rebounds. Knicks will need Melo and Swish to get buckets in crunch time this week @Cavs, vs. OKC and vs. Jazz. They’ll come up short against the Cavs & Thunder like they did against the HEAT and go 2-2 this week.

Mrs. NBA: Can I just say how retarded Knicks fans are this season? I'm not a Melo fan - obviously - but a bulk of the fan base - at least on social media - is turning Anthony into their whipping boy.
4. Brooklyn Nets (34-26, prev. rank: 5)

MHI: Nets have outscored opponents by 58 points in the 4th quarter. Joe Johnson leads Brooklyn in every category of the boxscore for the 4th quarter except rebounding and steals (Andray Blatche); assists, free throws and fouls drawn (Deron Williams); and blocks (Brook Lopez). Only 1 Nets game should be close in the 4th quarter this week - @Hawks on 2nd night of a back-to-back to end a 2-1 week.

Mrs. NBA: Nets are still the Nets and won't do shit in the postseason.
5. Atlanta Hawks (33-25, prev. rank: 6)

MHI: Opponents have outscored the Hawks by 53 points in the 4th quarter. Al Horford leads the team in 4th quarter minutes, buckets, defensive rebounds, blocks (tied with Josh Smith) and points scored. Hawks will need Horford to come through in the 4th @Celtics and vs. Nets but they’ll probably split their games and go 2-2 this week.

Mrs. NBA: Who?
6. Chicago Bulls (34-26, prev. rank: 4)

MHI: Opponents have outscored the Bulls by 39 points in the 4th quarter. The only players that were on the floor while the Bulls outscored opponents in the 4th quarter are Daequan Cook, Nate Robinson and Nazr Mohammed. The Bulls need Derrick Rose for the 4th quarter, but he’s allegedly been scared to play the last 7 weeks. Nate Robinson leads them in 4th quarter scoring and they may need him to go 2-1 this week @Spurs, vs. Jazz and @Lakers.

Mrs. NBA: Chicago is struggling, horribly, with their offense, and desperately need Derrick Rose.
7. Milwaukee Bucks (29-28, prev. rank: 7)

MHI: Opponents have outscored the Bucks by 69 points in the 4th quarter. Mike Dunleavy leads the Bucks in minutes played and threes for the 4th quarter while Larry Sanders leads them in rebounds and blocks. Bucks will have 3 tough games in the 4th quarter this week: Jazz, @Warriors and @Kings. They should go 3-1 this week if Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis don’t kill them in the clutch.

Mrs. NBA: BLAH! BLAH! BLAH!
8. Boston Celtics (31-27, prev. rank: 8)

MHI: Opponents have outscored the Celtics by 59 points in the 4th quarter. Kevin Garnett leads the team in every category of the boxscore for the 4th quarter except threes (Jason Terry), offensive rebounds (Jared Sullinger), assists (Rajon Rondo) and blocks (Jeff Green). KG can’t carry a team like he used to, so expect the Celtics to go 2-2 this week with @Sixers, @Pacers (back-to-back), Hawks and @Thunder on the schedule.

Mrs. NBA: The only question remaining with the Celtics is when the next injury is going to transpire.
All stats taken from nba.com/stats

Chris Bosh: Will He Get His Mind Right for the Knicks?

2013-03-02T16:20:00.000-05:00

There's a big difference in Chris Bosh's play before and after Lil' Wayne announced he fucked his wife at a party during NBA All-Star Weekend. Will Bosh be able to put that shit behind him to be successful against Tyson Chandler and the Knicks on Sunday?

The spreadsheet below shows Bosh's production before and after the all-star break using Win Score per 48 minutes (WS48), a number that summarizes player production and can be used to measure their estimated wins produced. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Bosh was producing a 9.2 WS48 for the season until the end of January. There was a slight increase in February before the all-star break, but since Lil' Wayne put his wife on blast Bosh's production has decreased by 79%.

Bosh was dominated by Chandler in the first 2 games against the Knicks this season. Chandler and the Knicks rank 4th in opposing centers WS48 this season after ranking 1st last season. The Grizzlies rank 1st this season and Bosh struggled against them Friday night with just -0.5 WS48.

A productive game from Bosh would've made it easier to beat the Grizzlies and the same logic applies to the Knicks. The HEAT have beaten the Knicks when Chandler outplayed Bosh, but it would seem to make it easier if Bosh was productive.

The spreadsheet below lists the WS48 produced by Bosh and Chandler in head-to-head matchups between the HEAT and Knicks.

Week 17 NBA Fanalyst Rankings: Follow the Leaders

2013-02-26T19:16:00.000-05:00

Dwyane Wade, the all-time leading scorer in Miami HEAT history, scored his 16,000th point over the weekend. This week’s Fanalyst Rankings analyzes how the active all-time leaders for the best franchises in the East will impact their teams’ performances.

There are two sides to every NBA Power Ranking: the Fanalytical and the Fanatical. As a Miami HEAT blogger living on the east coast, MHI plays the fanalyst for the Eastern Conference. As a Denver Nuggets fan living west of the Mississippi River, Mrs. NBA plays the fan and provides the slander. The roles are reversed for the Western Conference.

1. Miami HEAT (40-14, prev. rank: 1)

MHI: In addition to being the franchise’s all-time leader in points, Wade is also the HEAT’s all-time leader in assists and steals. He’ll get a chance to pad those totals against a Kings team that #GivesNoFucks and a Knicks team that’s become mediocre defensively. Tony Allen will be a tough matchup for Wade but the HEAT should still go 3-0 this week.

Mrs. NBA: Notice since I dropped my lyrical miracle about LeBron in the Fanalyst Rankings, the Heat have went on a rampage. YUP! This is ALLLLL MEEEE!

2. Indiana Pacers (35-21, prev. rank: 2)

MHI: Danny Granger ranks 5th all-time in points scored for the Pacers, but he struggled to score when he returned to the lineup last week. The only bump in the Pacers schedule this week is the 2nd night of a back-to-back in Toronto on Friday. It would help the Pacers go 4-0 if Granger found his scoring touch by then.

Mrs. NBA: Wake me up when Indiana can make the Eastern Conference Finals.

3. New York Knicks (33-20, prev. rank: 3)

MHI: Carmelo Anthony just cracked the Knicks’ top 50 list for points scored this season, but the scorer’s burden will be heavy this week against 2 above-average defenses from the Wizards and HEAT. If Melo can carry the weight, then he should lift the Knicks to a 2-1 record this week.

Mrs. NBA: The Knicks have regressed, especially defensively, since their raging 18-5 start.

4. Chicago Bulls (32-24, prev. rank: 4)

MHI: Luol Deng is the 6th-leading scorer in Bulls history, but he’ll need to rely on his offense and defense this week as the Bulls face 2 offensive teams (Cavs and Nets) and 2 defensive teams (Sixers and Pacers). If Deng can be a productive scorer and defender this week, then the Bulls can bounce back from last week’s blowouts and go 3-1.

Mrs. NBA: Luol Deng drinks Tang while doing the Harlem Shake...I don't know what that has to do with anything, but it sounds pretty funny, right?

5. Brooklyn Nets (33-24, prev. rank: 5)

MHI: Brook Lopez ranks 12th on the Nets all-time scoring list, but his offensive game will be tested by 3 teams that rank in the top 10 defending the paint: Hornets, Mavericks and Bulls. Lopez and the Nets will struggle to a 1-2 record this week.

Mrs. NBA: Nets are pitiful after failing to beat Memphis in a late-game situation.

6. Atlanta Hawks (31-23, prev. rank: 6)

MHI: The Hawks reportedly came close to trading Josh Smith last week, but the 8th-leading scorer in franchise history is still around to help the Hawks break even with a 2-2 record on their 4-game road trip this week against Pistons, Jazz, Suns and Lakers.

Mrs. NBA: The Hawks are still unimpressive after failing to deal Josh Smith considering he may walk in the off-season.

7. Milwaukee Bucks (26-28, prev. rank: 7)

MHI: By the end of the season, Brandon Jennings will pass Oscar Robertson to crack the list of top 20 scorers in Bucks history. By the end of the week, the Bucks will be 2-1 against the Mavs, Rockets and Raptors.

Mrs. NBA: Is it still #FearTheDeer, MHI?

8. Boston Celtics (29-27, prev. rank: 8)

MHI: Paul Pierce is the 2nd-leading scorer in Celtics history, and at his age he’ll appreciate a light week with just 2 games on the schedule: @Jazz and vs. Warriors. Pierce will struggle in Utah but he should take Harrison Barnes to school to help the Celtics go 1-1 this week.

Mrs. NBA: *YAWNNNSSS*