Mian Nawaz Sharif

May 28, 1998 nuclear tests became a key deciding factor for the future of Mian Nawaz Sharif as the prime minister of Pakistan. The U.S. had long been forcefully advocating non-proliferation of nuclear weapons in the South Asia. The apprehension of nuclear weapons being used irresponsibly and the nuclear technology being exported to other countries had been agitating the minds of the U.S. policy makers since 70’s in the case of Pakistan when late Z. A. Bhutto initiated development of nuclear weapons. Pakistan-India volatile relations and compulsive-obsessive approach to their bilateral issues carried the risk of nuclear weapons being used in haste or as a last resort in a grave conflict between the two countries.

Pakistan was also suspected of intentions to export nuclear technology or the weapons to other countries opposing the United States or Israel.

Mian Nawaz Sharif (MNS) became a threat to the U.S. and Israel’s interests when he did not listen to the U.S. President Clinton and went ahead with the nuclear tests. In the case of MNS, his leanings towards Islamic religious parties were also considered a major risk factor. His domicile of the Punjab—the point of massive killings, looting and arson during the partition of India in 1947 —was yet another factor which could ignite emotions easily against India at any time. By going ahead with the nuclear detonations, MNS also conveyed to the U.S. that he would go along with public sentiment when an issue of Pak-India supremacy arises.

Alongside these perceptions, there were internal conflicts too. The removal of the Chief Justice Sajjad Ali Shah, President Farooq Leghari and General Jahangir Karamat on the one hand and overbearing attitude towards the PPP and oft-repeated claim of heavy mandate (as if MNS could do anything at will) created apprehensions and uncertainties among the judiciary, bureaucracy and the military as well as the U.S. administration.

President Clinton was mostly objective, balanced and gentle in his approach to international issues. However, like all U.S. Presidents, he could not deviate from the key American policy objective of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons in the region. It needs to be understood that it is very rare in the U.S. that any president, irrespective of his party affiliation, will ever deviate from the mainline national priorities. Vietnam War, for example, was fought under five U.S. presidents. Every U.S. president vehemently opposed communism and its supporters throughout the American history.

The arbitrary removal of COAS Jahangir Karamat was taken as an insult to their institution by the junior and senior army officers. General Karamat was reportedly advised by his senior colleagues to hold on and refuse to resign. Beginning with this episode, the army, in all probability, started thinking about the dangers ahead in the event of MNS remaining in power.

It is understandable that General Pervez Musharraf, then COAS, sensing the strong resentment within the army, was tempted to explore the possibility of removing MNS through a military coup. The process probably went on un-noticed by the eagles of the intelligence services, until the last moment when MNS dismissed General Pervez Musharraf and appointed General Ziauddin Butt, D.G., ISI, as COAS in a state of urgency to prevent the military coup.

The dismissal of COAS on his way back home from a foreign trip added fuel to the fire. We must never forget that the army is possessive and protective of its institution and comrades in arms tend to uphold the sanctity of the institution. Once Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was reportedly tipped of an impending coup by General Maneckshaw. She was advised to call in the Army Chief to inquire about it. Contrary to the advice, she drove to the G.H.Q. and asked her Army Chief about such an intention. Maneckshaw did not mince words and told her that the army would not poke its nose into her affairs if she did not poke her nose into army affairs.

With General Pervez Musharraf in place as the chief executive of Pakistan, the U.S. should have felt better off. It needs to be understood that the U.S. has two sets of values; one for the Americans and the other for non-Americans. Democracy, for example, is to be safeguarded for the Americans, not necessarily for others including Pakistan. The U.S., like any super power, believes that it has nothing to do with the system of a country so long as the system does not come into conflict with the U.S. interests. It supported Marcos who ruled Philippines under martial law for 20 years and Shah of Iran for his 37- year rule. However, the U.S. does not and cannot support a ruler if the people of the country turn against him and the people’s agitation assumes alarming proportions putting the U.S. interests at risk.

As the situation stands in Pakistan today, the U.S. cannot and will not let the political parties dislodge Pervez Musharraf in a hurry. He has been a longtime tested and tried US ally whereas the PPP and PML (N) are yet to be tested and tried. President Bush has got only a few months before the end of his tenure. He would not like to give an opportunity to the Democrats to use Musharraf’s removal to their advantage in Nov 2008 elections and/or to malign the president who is already under tremendous pressure over American involvement in Iraq.

It is evident that Pervez Musharraf enjoys the backing of the army, bureaucracy, MQM, PML (Q), and post-emergency superior judiciary. The PPP is also supporting him for its own fears and worries. Asif Zardari, no matter how rhetoric he might be, cannot risk going to prison along with his bureaucrat-friends who are yet to be cleared from the federal and provincial review boards under NRO.

Mian Nawaz Sharif probably believes that the president needs to be removed NOW when the conditions in the country are conducive for making such a move. President Pervez Musharraf has abundantly exhibited time and again that he has the ability to bounce back from a weaker to a stronger position. There is a general perception that MNS has been vehemently advocating and supporting the restoration of the deposed judges as a means to oust the president on the one hand and to bring to book those who were allied with the president for their wrong-doings.

What the future holds for Mian Nawaz Sharif is yet to be seen! There is no major competitive edge for him in the foreseeable future. Odds against him are far more than he would visualize. He is yet to gain confidence of the military, bureaucracy and judiciary as well as the U.S. administration. The past is not far off from the memories of these institutions.

Testing times ahead

2008-04-26T03:53:00.000-07:00

Mian Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League has all along been very vocal about their clear stand on the restoration of some 60 deposed judges of the Supreme and High Courts who lost their positions either because they refused to take a fresh oath under the Provisional Constitution Order (PCO) under the Proclamation of Emergency on Nov 3, 2007 or were not invited to take oath. On the top of the list was the Chief Justice of Pakistan, Mr. Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry who was earlier dismissed by President Pervez Musharraf in March 2007 but who was later reinstated by the Supreme Court in July.

The fate of the PML(N) and PPP coalition now hangs on the question of the restoration of these judges. PPP appears to be dilly dallying the issue and trying to gain time for reasons best known to its leadership. Under the Charter of Democracy as well as the Murree Declaration, PPP leadership is bound to get the deposed judges restored within 30 days of the formation of the federal government.

The multi-million dollar question is: What will happen if the judges are not restored within the timeline of 30 days? Will PML(N) leave the coalition with PPP?

I strongly urge the visitors to this blog to participate in the poll below. The results of the poll will be announced after the closing date.

2008-01-24T02:58:00.001-08:00

"Democracy is a process by which the people are free to choose the man who will get the blame."--AP

Mian Nawaz Sharif's new role

2008-01-19T03:07:00.000-08:00

The tragic death of Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto in the midst of electioneering has placed Mian Nawaz Sharif in a pivotal position in the political arena of Pakistan. He is now the foremost popular leader. After his return from exile, he has displayed restraint, tolerance and maturity in his speeches and actions. He had been wooing Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto for a joint front to herald democracy in the country. She had also lately been distancing herself from the power-sharing deal with President Musharraf. PML(N) of Mian Nawaz Sharif and PPP of Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto would have formed a formidable front for the president, PML(Q) and their allies throughout the country. The U.S. and the West are left with no choice but to either accept the new role of Mian Nawaz Sharif and develop a working relationship with him or let the president postpone the general elections to rebuild his repertoire with the people and the political forces in Pakistan.

For Whom the Bell Tolls

2007-10-18T05:11:00.000-07:00

Mian Nawaz Sharif was twice elected as prime minister of Pakistan but could not complete either of his 5-year terms. He led his party Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz Group) to power for second time by overwhelming majority of seats in parliament before he was deposed in a military coup by his hand-picked Chief of Army Staff, General Pervez Musharraf, in Oct 1999. He was arrested, tried in an anti-terrorism court, sentenced to life imprisonment and then exiled to Saudi Arabia in 2000.

Mian Nawaz Sharif, according to a poll by MEM-IRI recently, is neck to neck with Benazir Bhutto, chairperson of the Pakistan People's Party, in popularity and people's choice to become prime minister again. He is also reported to have a higher rating than Benazir Bhutto in popularity in the provinces of Punjab and N.W.F.P. She is #1 choice in Sindh only.

Mian Nawaz Sharif attempted a comeback to Pakistan in Sep 2007 but was swiftly deported to Saudi Arabia by the government for the reason that he was committed to remain in exile for 10 years under an 'agreement between him and the government through the Saudi royal family.'
That deportation stands challenged in the Supreme Court of Pakistan which had earlier declared that Mian Nawaz Sharif had an unalienable right to come home as a citizen of Pakistan.

Benazir Bhutto who had gone into self-imposed exile just before the coup by General Pervez Musharraf in 1999 has come back to Pakistan on 18 Oct 2007 presumably under a power-sharing deal with the president. The president promulgated the National Reconciliation Ordinance, just before his re-election for the second term on Oct 10, whereby the politicians and bureaucrats whose cases (relating to the period 1st Jan 1986 to 12th Oct 1999) are under trial without conviction are granted amnesty from prosecution.

Mian Nawaz Sharif is reported to have declined the government offers in the past to come back under a power-sharing deal with the president. He has all along maintained the position that he is not prepared for any power-sharing deal with General Pervez Musharraf.

The general elections are scheduled for Jan 2008. A lot is expected to happen between now and then in the political arena of Pakistan but nobody seems to be 100% sure about the course of events and the end result.

Unforgetable Quotes

'When one door closes another door opens; but we so often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door, that we do not see the one which open for us.'---Alexandar Graham Bell

'God, grant me the strength to change that I need to change, the patience to accept that which I cannot change, and above all, the wisdom to know the difference.'---St. Francis of Assisi

'Success is based on imagination plus ambition and the will to work.'---Thomas Edison

'Minds are like parachutes, they only work when open.'---Anonymous

'The best way to predict the future is to create it.' ---Peter F. Drucker

'It is no use saying, we are doing our best. You have got to succeed in doing what is necessary.'--Sir Winston Churchill

'Anyone who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new' ---Albert Einstein

'A life without cause is a life without effect' ---Barbarella

'A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every dificulty' ---Sir Winston Churchill

'You see things; and you say "Why?" But I dream things that never were; and I say "Why not"---George Bernard Shaw

'Love all. Trust a few. Do wrong to none. This above all: to thine own self be true. No legacy is so rich as honesty. Brevity is the soul of wit'---William Shakespeare

'Democracy does not guarantee equality of conditions - it only guarantees equality of opportunity.' ---Irving Kristol

'Patriotism is your conviction that this country is superior to all others because you were born in it.'---George Bernard Shaw

'You have to live before you die, or you'll die before you live.'---Peter Sellers

'It is an unfortunate fact that we can secure peace only by preparing for war.'---John F. Kennedy

'Gossip is a sort of smoke that comes from the dirty tobacco-pipes of those who defuse it; it proves nothing but the bad taste of the smoker.'---George Eliot

'Any relic of the dead is precious, if they were valued living.'---Emily Bronte

'We have forty million reasons for failure, but not a single excuse.'---Rudyard Kipling

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