Michael Heaver's Blog

Immigration: political class live in a different Britain.

2013-02-17T09:00:00.000Z

How can it be that when 79%+ of the public oppose opening Britain's borders to Bulgaria and Romania, both Coalition government parties and the opposition party all support it?

The reality is that those running the country are desensitised from the damage of large scale uncontrolled immigration from Eastern Europe and indeed benefit in some ways from it. After all, it isn't going to be Little Johnny the privately-educated offspring of MP X who is trying to get a minimum wage job at a factory or punting for work as a bricklayer. Instead the politicians and big business point to the benefits of lots of newcomers to the country working hard in minimum wage jobs. Good for them, but they are screwing British workers who are left to rot on the dole. Our young in particular are routinely abused by Labour and the Tories as lazy, bone-idle and useless and the assumption is made that before Eastern Europeans arrived, the fruit didn't get picked and the country was on verge of collapse. Give me a break.

This is another issue where those in Westminster sow the seeds of pain for which the Great British general public pay the price for. Cameron talks in his ridiculously dishonest tone about controlling immigration, when we have opened our wide open doors to an entire continent. And in 2014 the warm welcome from Westminster extends to as many citizens of Romania and Bulgaria who wish to come. The UK's job market is about to become even more saturated with those looking for entry-level work.

Youth unemployment is at 22%. Wages are being pushed down. In the first year of the Coalition, more than 90% of jobs went to non-British born workers. It may benefit the wealthy Cameron's and the Miliband's of this world to have treat immigrant labour at their beck and call, but for the ordinary working man it has caused massive social and economic problems.

The social media revolution

2012-09-23T19:08:00.002+01:00

Grant Shapps: grammar school boy done good.

2012-09-04T12:58:00.000+01:00

The rise of Grant Shapps to Conservative Party Chairman today marks a high point in his career as a guy who came from a normalish background. But it is likely that in forthcoming years, reshuffles at government level will find it increasingly hard to appoint people who went through the state schooling system.

The problem is there for all to see: right now the government is dominated by those from very privileged backgrounds. There is a severe lack of contenders for top government jobs who went through the state school system, mostly because unlike Shapps they didn't get the opportunities that a grammar school education can afford young boys and girls who may not have had the best starts in life.

Hopefully with a grammar school boy in such a senior role within the Conservatives, the arguments will be made again. That non-selective free schools are one thing, but a selective education system that enables a society based on meritocracy is quite another. Somehow I don't see that happening as the Tories long ago seemed to have turned their back on grammar schools, but nonetheless Shapps rise proves the point that these schools worked.

Why keep Anders Breivik alive?

2012-08-24T12:45:00.000+01:00

77 lives, mostly very young lives, were ended by Anders Breivik. Another 240 were injured as he bombed and shot innocent people.

He isn't insane. He's an evil human being who committed pre-meditated murder on the basis of his own warped world view. He planned these attacks and carried them out.

And now? 21 years in prison. A prison life where he will no doubt be well fed, clothed, watered and protected by other inmates at a cost to the families who have lost loved ones to his blood lust.

He will need to be separated and kept away from other prisoners. Even those who have committed heinous crimes themselves will want to extinguish the life of a man who targeted children. Taxpayers will pay to keep this beast alive. Why?

This is cut and dry. He committed these crimes. He meant to. It may be all well and good to play the bleeding heart angle but seriously: if your child or mum or father had been shot down by this animal, would you really think justice was him being looked after in an isolated, private part of a prison? I would want him dead in a heartbeat.

The death penalty in cases such as this is not about stooping to his level. It is about a punishment that fits the crime. For Anders Breivik to be kept alive and protected by the state is surely a sick perversion of true human justice.

Conservatives are getting very rattled about UKIP.

2012-08-15T16:10:00.000+01:00

So Daniel Hannan, the Conservative Party's only anti-EU MEP, wants an electoral pact with UKIP at the next General Election. This is significant.

It demonstrates the increasing popularity of UKIP and the likely impact it will have at the next General Election which does, after all, come just one year after the 2014 European Election that UKIP could win outright.

Don't forget at the last General Election, then-UKIP Leader Lord Pearson's private but direct offer of a pact to the Conservatives was utterly ignored by the party.

I don't think any such pact will happen next time round, for a myriad of reasons. Very few Tory candidates are actually anti-EU in terms of advocating withdrawal - they number about a dozen or so. UKIP is developing beyond a party that only cares about this issue anyway.

As for the notion of David Cameron instructing candidates to stand down in seats to give UKIP a clear run? I won't hold my breath.

The truth is that Daniel Hannan belongs in UKIP. The Conservative Party, as it left Stuart Wheeler, Lord Hesketh and Hannan's former colleague Roger Helmer, has left him. A Tory Prime Minister is in office and is presiding over a shambolic government that is increasing the amount we give to Brussels, that stands against grammar schools and which generally buys into the notion of a high tax economy.

Britain's foreign criminal base is a revolving-door.

2012-08-14T12:47:00.000+01:00

There was an interesting documentary last night on Channel 4, the topic being pickpockets in London. These uncaring individuals pick out victims to nick items from, in many cases the type of items that hold on them irreplaceable photos and family videos.

One thing that struck me, though it isn't exactly news, is the amount of foreign criminals coming to London for a life of organised crime. Mercenaries from across Europe use the EU's open borders to enter Britain and make a fortune by thieving. compared to the paltry wages on offer for honest graft back home, the risk/reward ratio is tantalising.

The problem is that the worst that can happen to these people is that they are arrested, convicted and put in prison - though it remains extremely difficult to actually receive a custodial sentence in the UK given how full our prisons are. Even the deterrent of UK prison just doesn't cut it though.

After all, with cable TV for good behaviour, astro turf football pitches, pool tables, gyms and the rest, our prisons are like a Butlins compared to the harsh conditions that hardened foreign criminals are used to. Human rights gone mad has led to a cushdy life for criminal scum, even if they are caught.

And so after putting these scumbags away for short terms, funded by the British taxpayer, they come out. They can't be deported due to the EU's open borders and so back out on the streets they go with their criminal gangs, with nothing to lose and targets around them everywhere.

Our foreign criminal base needs to be dealt with and the remedy is really quite straight forward. Take back our borders. Only allow in those who we require economically. Kick out those who commit crime. Ensure that Britain's prisons are places that you notoriously do not want to end up doing time in.

Jubilee identity.

2012-06-03T23:06:00.000+01:00

The last few days have been tremendous in terms of British national identity. With the Jubilee celebrations, Union Jack flags have been displayed everywhere and ordinary folks for once, aren't fearful of displaying national pride. Our flag, for now, isn't the preserve of a few extremist nutters. That's the way it should be all the time and is one of the reasons that I love patriotic America.

It is an exciting time to be English. We have a tremendous Queen, an Olympic games that will hopefully showcase our nation well and an England football team that I think will do quite well at the European Championships.

Times are tough, much is wrong with our country but we are still an exceptional nation comprising of fundamentally decent people. I love my country.

Clegg patronises every working class kid.

2012-05-24T11:18:00.000+01:00

Nick Clegg’s argument that top Universities should lower their entry grades for state school kids is one of the most obscene things I’ve ever heard, even from the Liberal Democrats.

Snobbish grandstanding about poor kids being second class dumbos who need to be patronised into Oxbridge is about as insulting and out of touch as it gets.

Yet it is useful in getting to the heart of the matter of why state education in the UK is now so very poor. Clegg and his colleagues have clearly given up on actually giving working class kids an education on parity with their wealthier counterparts and so positive discrimination must, he wrongly assumes, come into play to balance things out.

It is highly offensive for the Coalition to continue to pursue positive discrimination for kids based on their background or skin colour. At the end of the day, they should be focusing on giving every kid the chance to flourish on a level playing field. Instead sadly our politicians seem focused on lowering standards because they don’t have the answers as to how schooling for poor kids can be vastly improved as is required.

In addition we need less talk about lowering standards and much more focus on trying to give all of our kids disciplined, rigorous, top class education. The type of education the generation before mine got, in grammar schools and vocationally-focused schools.

The answer of course is that firstly, we don’t necessarily need working class kids flooding into Universities, we need them getting taught the right skills to get to the top. Oxbridge isn’t for everyone; we need to stop acting as if the vocational route is the road to failure. It is not.

If we do that, maybe we can one day start raising standards for our poor youngsters instead of seeking to constantly lower their expectations and aspirations.

Will Ed Miliband really have the stomach for an EU referendum?

2012-05-21T10:57:00.000+01:00

I'm pretty dubious about the talk of a potential In/Out referendum apparently being considered by the Labour Party's top brass. Sure, it would split the Conservatives massively and give David Cameron a huge headache. But ultimately, would someone as wedded to the EU project as Miliband really risk the British public voting to leave?

Recent polls have confirmed the trend that the 'In' side is down by about 20% to the 'Outers', hardly favourable. Whilst the issue is an important one that should be put to the people, I have always thought that the politician most likely to call an In/Out referendum would be one wanting us to leave, as that would seem to be the likely income.

Then again, if the benefits of EU membership are 'self-evident' as the Labour line has gone for years, maybe they truly do believe that come a referendum the British public will suddenly want to be part of the EU no matter what the cost in terms of our democracy or prosperity? That seems just about deluded enough to seem plausible to me.

The Farage speeches are a global phenomenon.

2012-05-11T09:02:00.001+01:00

It always strikes me that when I speak to even the mostly vaguely Eurosceptic Conservative or for that matter Labour supporter, there is near enough always a glaring admiration for Nigel Farage.

Perhaps I am biased, after all he is the guy who inspired me to get off my backside and get involved in politics. But I can honestly say he is the only politician I’m aware of who scores regular viral hits with his speeches. The latest one, during which he warned of revolution in Europe due to the economic prison of the Euro, has garnered close to 100,000 views in less than 48 hours, with very little mainstream press coverage. Who else garners this reaction regularly?

Of course many boring, pedantic lefties dismiss Farage’s verbal smackdowns as beneath them. Yet whether these anti-EU tirades are crammed full of academic citations or not doesn’t matter; they encompass a sort of pent up feeling that many rightly feel is unrepresented in the UK.

After all, it is now well established by a number of different polls that we are a majority anti-EU nation as far as the public goes, or very, very close to it. This case for leaving the EU outright is rarely heard on TV, radio or in Parliament though. Despite the EU costing the taxpayer billions, despite its constant interference in our internal affairs and its destruction of our democracy, Cameron, Clegg and Miliband line up to defend it at every turn. Just as Brown did. And Blair. And Major.

The instincts of the British public know that this EU project is so very wrong that when Farage’s two or three minute speeches tear into this established wisdom with such passion and conviction, it riles and captures the imagination. I cannot be alone in thinking this; the YouTube numbers speak for themselves. So too, I should add, do the comments that appear up underneath these videos.

Far from being cheered on by a bunch of xenophobic English right-wingers as The Guardian would have you believe, ordinary citizens from Poland, Greece, Germany and right across Europe stop by to thank Nigel Farage for speaking up for them as despairing Europeans, as they speak of wishing that they had their very own Nigel Farage to cheer on, to vote for.

The Farage speeches are a phenomenon in this digital age of politics that truly breakthrough in a way that a pre-scripted back-and-forth PMQ’s never has and never will. Perhaps if other politicians spoke with more proper unscripted conviction rather than pre-filtered buzzwords, the public would be a bit more interested.

Will the British Right ever be the same again?

2012-05-09T11:31:00.000+01:00

Check out my latest piece for The Commentator by clicking here.

The EU is breeding extremism.

2012-05-08T09:25:00.000+01:00

Those who apologise and argue for the European Union's existence and expansion have long used the argument that it has helped make Europe more peaceful.

But as it mugs taxpayers for all they have and essentially forces hostile takeovers of national democracies, this couldn't be further from the truth.

Greece, beaten and bloodied as it lays crippled in the Euro straight jacket, has seen a huge upsurge in support for the Golden Dawn Party. The Party previously had virtually no support - in 2012, with many Greeks angry, disgusted and bitter at its nation's treatment by the EU, Golden Dawn secured 7% and 21 seats in the Greek Parliament. Previously it sat at less than 0.25%.

This neo-Nazi extremism is the type of desperation many Greeks now feel. Despondent and furious, many have clearly voted for the most extreme option open to them. A Party whose logo resembles a swastika, has a uniform and goes around fighting socialists in open street battles while out campaigning. They also want to put mines on the border.

If the EU doesn't stop running roughshod over ordinary people, if national politicians don't start listening to the people, I fear that such extremism will only become more prevalent across Euorpe. This is getting serious now.

The Tory Party doesn't own conservatives.

2012-05-05T22:30:00.000+01:00

The Plymouth Conservatives reckon that UKIP 'are to blame' for their defeat.

They have no one but to blame but themselves. Clearly not enough of the electorate rated what their candidates or Party was offering in the area.

You could say the same for UKIP, if it wasn't for the fact that the Party saw a huge vote boost. Standing in every Plymouth Ward, UKIP averaged 20.6% in Plymouth. That's more than one in five Plymouth voters now backing UKIP.

It represents a tremendous shift in the workings of the Right in Britain. While the Left has seen the SDP breakaway from Labour in the past, as well as the formerly centre-left Liberal Democrats fragment Labour over the years, the Conservative Party hasn't seen a constant fragmentation of its own vote in terms of being outflanked on the right. UKIP has steadily grown from a very small base, whilst the Referendum Party came and went quickly.

The Conservative Party doesn't own conservatives. Conservatism no longer in Britain automatically equals Toryism. I mean just who embodies traditional conservative values on things like tax, spending, Europe and defence more; David Cameron or Nigel Farage? It is easy to see why so many right-wingers are finding UKIP the more authentic voice on the Right in Britain.

Indeed it is First Past The Post that truly acts as the biggest hindrance to UKIP, with conservatives sometimes failing to back UKIP because they don't believe they can win. When this isn't a factor, as with the European Elections, UKIP picks up millions of votes.

But it is starting to do the same in local, first past the post elections as well. The Party took 220,000 votes in England's local elections this year, more than double what it received in 2008.

Symbolic of UKIP's rise was the defeat of the Tory Leader of Tunbridge Wells Council, defeated and replaced by a Kipper. There may have been few such outright victories for UKIP this year - but with over 100 second places, huge swathes of UKIP Councillors could well be elected in 2014. The British Right may never be quite the same again - genuine conservatives now have a choice.

UKIP's opinion polls translate into votes.

2012-05-04T08:30:00.002+01:00

There can be no doubt now: the opinion polls that have tracked UKIP's steady rise to between 8% - 11% are right.

Yes, the Party did not win hundreds of seats as some will inevitably spin. But look at the facts. The seats that UKIP did stand in saw the Party averaging around 14%. More votes have already been won than in 2008, with 300 results still to come in. The progress is there for all to see.

The strategy for UKIP has always been to build long term locally. The amount of second places achieved last night - for example in Gorleston, Great Yarmouth where from a standing start the Party was 25 votes away from taking an ultra safe Tory seat - is striking.

If the momentum continues, UKIP will take many more Council seats next year. Oh, and the year after that? The local elections coincide with the European Elections. What happens then is truly anyone's guess. All bets could be off.

End the EU Airport Queue.

2012-05-02T15:19:00.000+01:00

Though still relatively young, I retain the romantic notion that citizens of a country should be able to get in to their country with greater ease than those from outside of it.

Of course with Britain's luxurious EU membership, British nationality has been diluted to the extent that my romance has been mugged by political reality. I am an EU national and have the same ability to travel into the UK as a Pole, Spaniard or Frenchman. I must also queue with them to get into my country.

Brits complain about the long waiting times into the UK. But if we're queuing with the rest of the EU, of course it'll take hours. The EU's expansion now encompasses hundreds of millions of citizens, treat as a blue and gold-starred bloc.

It says a lot about the Conservatives' acceptance and implementation of the EU project that they do not object, let alone seek to reform, this ridiculous situation. Bringing in a UK queue into the country would show that we have our priorities right and that we are still a nation with a degree of independence and self-control. Alas, we are living in an EU-controlled Europe, a truly bastardised form of the nation state.

UKIP level with LibDems in London!

2012-04-30T11:22:00.000+01:00

Despite the media promoting the Greens and virtually ignoring UKIP in London's election race, Nigel Farage's Party have surged to 8% on the London list vote - equal third with the Liberal Democrats.

If that translates on Thursday, UKIP will see two AMs elected - with potentially a big say on the next London Mayor's budget.

Whether the media like it or not, it looks increasingly like UKIP has building momentum behind it going into the elections.

Is Cameroonism just an electoral liability?

2012-04-30T11:02:00.000+01:00

The idea was simple: the Tory brand of 'nastiness' was toxic and needed to be flushed out of the blue rosette. 'Dave' was the man to make the Conservative Party electable again after repeated drubbings by Labour at the polls.

Thatcherism was to be expelled. Out went meritocracy. Cameron surrounded himself with the likes of George Osborne. Small-c conservatism was banished. David Davis, Cameron's leadership rival, has promised a grammar school in every town and city. But Cameron turned his back on selective education, on tough immigration controls, on proper committed Euroscepticism and other such policies in favour of a tree logo, climate change and bike riding. Right on.

Tory members blindly believed that it was all a game. Cameron had pitched his tent on Blair's so-called centre-ground, but only to win the election and make the Tories more electable. Once he was in, he'd be their man. He'd really roll up his true blue sleeves and make a dent on the destruction Labour had brought to Britain.

Except Cameroonism isn't strong in belief, communication or ability. It didn't win over the public and so despite a virtual open goal against a hugely discredited Gordon Brown, Cameron couldn't get the job done. Instead he has had to sit with Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats. As Clegg himself once put it, 'the more we spoke, the more we found we had in common'. Just how far away are LibDem ideology and the Cameroons? I've never been convinced of the difference.

And so this clucking, awkward government has come to prove a bit of a disaster. No street wise Cabinet Ministers to provide firepower, Cameron just seems to enjoy the position without any real vision, narrative or goal. Britain is still borrowing billions, is still subordinate to Brussels and the Conservatives' only notable reforms have come on welfare and free schools.

It is the type of one-term legacy a PM without principle would create. Far from making the Tory Party more electable, Cameroonism has left the Tories looking weak and feeble - and very open to attacks from the prospering UKIP. That is one battle I'm certain Cameron doesn't have the guile or bottle to take on. The Cameroon logic survives by dismissing and ignoring such right-wing rhetoric.

UKIP's popularity seems to have exploded.

2012-04-27T09:05:00.001+01:00

Nevermind yet another YouGov opinion poll putting UKIP at 9%, level with the LibDems, despite far less media coverage.

Last night's Question Time performance from Nigel Farage saw something very unusual happen. Twitter exploded in reaction to Farage as always, but this time, this time the number of people with favourable comments seemed to have shot up.

People every few minutes were saying that it was UKIP for them. That they'd had enough of the rest of them. Critically, Nigel Farage was not just tapping into disaffection, it was positively swinging behind him and his Party. Tweet after tweet of new supporters, particularly young people, announced that they had joined UKIP.

I have never seen anything like it online in British politics. The opinion polls can be scoffed out, but the evidence is out there. Whether you look at YouGov's daily polls which have had UKIP as the third party, or Survation's recent survey which has the Party on course for 2 London Assembly seats, something is really going on out there in the run up to May 3rd.

Oh, and if you really doubt what I'm saying, then you may like to know that UKIP beat the Conservatives, LibDems and Labour to win a by-election in Seaford last night. A sign of things to come?

Being Eurosceptic but pro-unelected Lords is madness.

2012-04-24T11:17:00.000+01:00

The costly, undemocratic beast from Brussels must be slain. That is now pretty mainstream among right-wing politicians and commentators. So why are they so many of them so keen to defend the current make-up of the House of Lords?

Democracy is democracy. Those such as myself oppose the EU on the basis that it should be for the British people to decide their own future. But that's no use if we have then have an unelected second chamber which meddles in our democracy with no mandate. Even the Earl of Dartmouth, formerly a sitting Peer in the House of Lords and now an MEP, has branded the HoL as dangerously out of touch and unaccountable.

Radical change in the UK requires power to be put back in the hands of the masses. And that requires ripping up the rule book of how things are currently done. The legislative procedure requires a fundamental overhaul in the UK.

Oh, but some may cry. An elected second chamber under PR would give a voice to the likes of UKIP, the Greens and Respect. Well sorry but if we want democracy in this digital age we must accept plurality. We must accept that the two-party or even three party system in Britain is finished. That era over, finished. Tribal loyalties have slowly broken over the past decade and will continue to slide, in my opinion. Cowering away from this fact leaves us with shameful consequences, such as close to one million 2010 UKIP voters going completely unrepresented in the House of Commons.

Sunny days ahead for UKIP?

2012-04-23T10:13:00.002+01:00

So now The Sun have caught a whiff of Farage Fever, and their top politico Trevor Kavanagh today warns David Cameron against 'kipping on the UKIP threat. Unlike many at The Telegraph, Kavanagh clearly sees UKIP as a Party with its act together.

Matthew Norman of The Independent has already got a bit speculative over a future relationship between The Sun and UKIP:

It now seems inconceivable that he (Murdoch) will back David Cameron in a general election, and given that he has warmed to neither Ed Miliband nor the Lib Dems, this leaves two options. He must either order The Sun to abstain or come out for Nigel Farage, who best reflects his feelings on Europe, in a brazen effort to avenge himself on the entire political establishment and shift those tectonic plates.

Of course, Kavanagh's 'Europhobic' slur on UKIP shows that The Sun is not exactly a staunch supporter right now. But it is an intriguing possibility going forward. And after all, there is only one Party speaking about properly restricting immigration, sticking two figures up to the ECHR to boot Abu Qatada out and arguing for EU withdrawal. All things that go down very well with The Sun's readership.

Another bad UKIP hatchet job.

2012-04-21T09:53:00.000+01:00

Telegraph Blogs is a project/site that I hugely admire. Unlike most other newspapers it actually invests time and money into its online operation and the results are there for all to see.

The inaccurate smears on the rise of UKIP however seem unbecoming of what is usually such a tremendous site. Damian Thompson, editor of the Blogs, has just done a piece that also appeared in today's print Telegraph.

The article starts off as it means to go on (badly) by quoting Alan Sked, co-founder of UKIP. A man who if you speak to many inside UKIP (which I doubt Thompson has) came across as a paranoid, crazed fruitcake who lost his mind and turned against UKIP once he lost full control of it.

Thompson then makes some incredible claims. UKIP has no grassroots, he says. Well the branches all over the country filled with ex-Conservative Association Chairman must be a figment of my imagination then. Then there is the inaccurate claim that UKIP is pretty much just a bastion for old failed Tories. Thompson should really attend a UKIP Conference - there are many ex-Labour, LibDem and altogether new political activists among the UKIP ranks who have never supported any other party. Like me.

Another key development that Thompson skips out on is the fact - and it is a fact - that young right-wingers are finding their ideological political homes in UKIP. It is a Party with young activist blood running through its veins.

There then is the slur that UKIP finds it hard to keep extremists at bay. No, Damian: UKIP just bans all current and ex-BNP, EDL, NF and so on from ever joining. It ain't that hard to do.

Finally, and incredibly, is the claim that Lord Tebbit and other Tory Eurosceptics are far better off staying inside the Conservative Party. The Party that turned its back on a cast iron guarantee of an EU referendum. That whips its MEPs to vote for things like the European External Action Service. That gives the IMF countless billions to prop up the failed Euro. This is old rigid thinking inside a right-wing media establishment that really needs to stop resisting the UKIP rise and come to terms with the reality. That this is no flash in the pan but a new realignment in British politics.

The absurdity of that last pro-Conservative claim rounded up what I felt was a pretty bad hatchet job on UKIP. I wonder if Telegraph Blogs will be allowed to publish anything vaguely more pro-UKIP, considering that the majority of the comments on Damian Thompson's piece lay into him? After all, if The Telegraph claims to speak to ordinary Conservative voters, it should remember that frequent polls show that 10%+ of them are now UKIPers anyway.

Cameron doesn't have clear direction. That's the whole point.

2012-04-19T10:33:00.002+01:00

Lord Ashcroft reckons that with some clear direction, the Tories can see off the UKIP threat. I doubt it.

The reason that many people have left the Tory Party to join UKIP is because of Cameron himself. Because he turns people off. Why? He is a Prime Minister without direction underpinned by a lack of ideological backbone.

Just look at the EU. Cameron talks about referendums and Euroscepticism in opposition, but then delivers a government that whips its MEPs to vote for things like the European External Action Service. Similarly Cameron rolled over on increasing the EU's budget. Most recently we have the pathetic case of Abu Qatada who should just be deported, no matter what some unelected foreigners in Strasbourg have to say. Cameron lacks grit or an intellectual honesty that would reach out to people. He plays things by the bureaucratic book. It is unimaginative and uninspiring.

Look for further evidence on the issue of immigration. The government runs around claiming that it will control immigration and brings number down. But it seeks to mug the British public by rarely mentioning that when it says "immigration controls" none of them apply to the Polish or Romanians coming over. And so under Cameron net migration has increased. His dishonesty cannot hide the facts on this one.

Neither can it on the matter of the defence budget as we spend £3 billion on aircraft carrier without any aircraft, something which may be a dire mistake as Argentina eyes up another Falklands conflict. Disgustingly, servicemen and women were laid off from our Armed Forces by text message. All under the watchful eye of a Prime Minister who talks tough on defence and looking after our boys but turning his back where it matters, on cold hard cash.

The truth is that the only 'direction' I have seen Cameron give the Tory Party is one towards the hallowed 'centre ground' of hugging hoodies, tree logos, foolish foreign intervention and the giving of foreign aid at a time when so many of our own are feeling the squeeze.

On the crux issues: the EU, immigration, the London riots, defence, Cameron hasn't and will not deliver what UKIP's increasing number of supporters want. Lord Ashcroft and many others will be hoping that some direction is found and that Cameron can rally back support. But the rise of UKIP I don't believe can be thwarted by a man who does not seem to have a truly conservative bone in his body.

What's Douglas Carswell hanging around for?

2012-04-18T13:45:00.000+01:00

A very good question put to the Prime Minister by well known Tory backbench MP Douglas Carswell was met with derision by David Cameron earlier. As Carswell pressed his Party Leader on the question of the Whitehall machine dictating and driving policy instead of elected representatives, Cameron chuckled and told him to get a sense of humour.

It was a serious slap in the face to what was not a Punch & Judy question, but a serious point on how this country is governed.

Carswell, one of the big Tory thinkers who is also openly anti-EU, must surely be questioning if he is in the right Party. People can say that he might lose his seat if he defected to UKIP - but is being banned from your Party's front bench (by being anti-EU) and laughed at when you put a question at PMQs really worth hanging around for?

The anti-EU vote will be fragmented - until anti-EU Tories join UKIP.

2012-04-18T09:18:00.000+01:00

Daniel Hannan makes an interesting case: that the Eurosceptic vote in Britain is fractured thanks to the competition between the Conservative Party and UKIP.

I do think much of what he says is wrong however. UKIP is not about 'Euroscepticism'. Euroscepticism really is a failed Tory doctrine that consists of mild bashing of the EU and talking about reform for decades as the thing moves towards federalism unabashed. Tory government after Tory government (Thatcher - Major - Cameron) has talked tough on the EU but effectively done what the project required of them.

That's the past. UKIP's rise shows that people want something else. They want out of the EU. No compromise. It is for this reason that I see the front bench of the Tory Party (which has banned any anti-EU politicians while consisting of Euro enthusiasts like Ken Clarke) having very little in common with the likes of Nigel Farage, or indeed Daniel Hannan himself.

The anti-EU movement is splintered, but I would argue that the splinter comes from Tory MPs and MEPs like Hannan refusing to join the Party whose manifesto matches their own beliefs. I mean honestly, Phillip Davies, Phillip Hollobone and the like have about as much business standing on a Tory manifesto as I do. It doesn't make sense.

So yes, lets unite all anti-EU, anti-open door immigration, pro-flat tax, pro-selective education people. But that unification should surely come under the Party whose manifesto already includes all of these things The Cameroons have taken over the Tory Party and drained it of conservatism just as Tony Blair destroyed any remnants of socialism within New Labour. Those who think the Conservatives will become a viable Eurosceptic Party in the future need to ask themselves if they are being realistic or simply wishful.

British politics is about to change forever.

2012-04-17T11:14:00.000+01:00

The era of Coalition always had the potential to radically shake up British politics forever. As ever though, Westminster's focus was on how the positioning of the three establishment parties would change.

The reality is that the story of Coalition has been the rise of UKIP, alongside the demise of the sell-out LibDems. UKIP has never been just a part of 'others'. It came second in the Euro Elections in 2009, winning 13 MEPs. The Greens and the BNP got just 2 each.

Similarly at the 2010 General Election UKIP came close to receiving one million votes. That's more than triple what the Green Party received.

Since then UKIP has had its gang of big beasts expand alongside the likes of Nigel Farage and Lord Pearson. Figures such as Stuart Wheeler and former Tory Treasurer Lord Hesketh have joined the Party, as Farage has re-taken the leadership. People like ex-head of OFSTED Sir Chris Woodhead are now speaking on education at a UKIP Conference. The Party is run by Executive Chairman Steve Crowther who demonstrates just how credible UKIP are internally when his opposite Tory number is the appalling Baroness Warsi. MEP Roger Helmer has also defected as have a number of Councillors.

The 'others' myth has been put to bed. We are witnessing a UKIP surge, as the Greens and BNP stagnate. The London Assembly elections could well see only UKIP gain a seat aside from the old three. And only UKIP has a spread of support across the country rather than in Bradford or Brighton sized pockets.

With a European Election in 2014 that UKIP will aim to win, I honestly believe that 2015 could see very many UKIP MPs elected, even under First Past The Post.

One thing is for sure. British politics has a new fourth player. It's first task must be to consign the LibDems to the 'others' category and take its place as an anti-establishment, low tax, anti-EU third party alternative.