Michael's Telluride Film Blog

Ten Bets for TFF #53, Vol. 1 / World of Reel on Venice Titles

2026-06-18T07:38:59.062-05:00

TEN BETS FOR TFF #53, VOL. 1

Well, here it is (Live from the 2026 National Speech and Debate Tournament in Richmond, VA.) the first Ten Bets for 2026 for TFF #53. I'm doing this a little differently than in the past in that I am listing the early versions of the Ten Bets in alphabetical order. In the later going, as we get closer to The SHOW, I'll revert to the traditional ranking in order of what I think the chances are of making a TFF appearance.

So here are the first guesses (10 of them) for films at TFF #53 (in the aforementioned alphabetical order):

The Black Ball

Bucking Fastard

Coward

The Debut

Fatherland

A Long Winter

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

The Story of Documentary Film

Yellow Letters

As the weeks unfold, I'll update every Thursday as new info and rumors swirl. Additionally, as we get closer to Labor Day, I'll also expand the list beyond a mere ten bets.

I'll remind readers that MTFB averages about six correct guesses on each year's initial Ten Bets. I also have to tell you that there are some titles here that I'd be very excited about seeing.

Let the next few weeks tell the story!

WORLD OF REEL ON VENICE TITLES

Jordan Ruimy has a list of possible Venice titles. Many MTFB readers know that each year a number of films play the early part of Venice and then make a blazing trans-continental trip to the San Juans.

From WOR's Venice speculative list, here's my take on what might make the trip:

Bucking Fastard

Here Comes the Flood

Tender Loving Care

Wild Horse Nine

Look Back

The Basics of Philosophy

A Long Winter

Bunker

The Social Reckoning

Elon

The complete list is linked here.

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2026/6/16/david-finchers-cliff-booth-wont-premiere-at-venice

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No Post Today

2026-06-15T08:00:00.000-05:00

At the National Speech Tournament in Richmond, VA. Planning to post on Thursday, June 18th.

TFF #53 Has a Poster / The Social Reckoning Has a Trailer / The Story of Documentary Film Has a Poster / Release Date for Fatherland

2026-06-11T07:13:46.919-05:00

TFF #53 HAS A POSTER

The official poster for TFF #53 has been released:

BERKELEY, CA – Telluride Film Festival (September 4 – 7, 2026) is proud to announce British designer, filmmaker, and cultural curator Bella Freud as its poster artist for the 2026 Festival.

Bella Freud founded her eponymous label in 1990 and has become internationally recognized for her distinctive work across fashion, interiors, perfumery, filmmaking, and publishing. Known for her intelligent yet playful approach, Freud distills emotion and personal narrative throughout her collections, creating a singular visual language that resonates across disciplines.

Her iconic Word sweaters, including Ginsberg is God and 1970, have become contemporary classics worn by a devoted global following that includes Rosamund Pike, Rashida Jones, Alexa Chung, Kate Moss, and Rebecca Ferguson. Freud’s creative practice extends beyond fashion through collaborations with Marks & Spencer, King & McGaw, Nick Cave, and filmmaker John Malkovich, among many others.

In October 2024, Freud launched Fashion Neurosis with Bella Freud, a podcast exploring the relationship between fashion and identity through intimate and deeply personal conversations set in the atmosphere of her London sitting room. The series quickly reached number one in the UK arts podcast charts and entered the global top ten, featuring leading voices from fashion, film, music, and literature.

“The words Film Festival and Telluride are filled with promise and intrigue,” comments Freud. “Film is our modern mythology; it gives us courage and imagination. Telluride is the Shangri-La where some kind of conversation will take place that will change your life. SHOW.”

Festival director Julie Huntsinger adds, “Bella Freud possesses a rare ability to connect style, storytelling, and emotional truth with wit, intimacy, and extraordinary intelligence. Her work moves fluidly between disciplines while remaining deeply cinematic in spirit. We are thrilled to present Bella’s poster for the 53rd TFF, whose curiosity, perspective, and passion for culture brings a unique dimension to the collection.”

Each year, Telluride Film Festival welcomes artists whose work expands cultural conversation across disciplines and reflects the Festival’s enduring commitment to creativity and cinematic storytelling. Bella Freud joins a celebrated group of filmmakers, writers, musicians, and visual artists whose unique perspectives have contributed to the Festival’s ongoing history and artistic community including Daniel Clowes, Jim Dine, Maira Kalman, Ed Ruscha, Julian Schnabel, among others.

About Telluride Film Festival

The prestigious Telluride Film Festival ranks among the world’s best film festivals and is an annual gathering for film industry insiders, cinema enthusiasts, filmmakers, and critics. TFF is considered a major launching ground for the fall season’s most talked-about films. Founded in 1974, Telluride Film Festival, presented in the beautiful mountain town of Telluride, Colorado, is a four-day international educational event celebrating the art of film. Telluride Film Festival’s long-standing commitment is to join filmmakers and film connoisseurs together to experience great cinema. The exciting schedule, kept secret until just before Opening Day, consists of over three dozen filmmakers presenting their newest works, special Guest Director programs, major Tributes to guest artists, special events, and remarkable treasures from the past. Telluride Film Festival is a 501(c)(3) non-profit educational program. Festival headquarters are in Berkeley, CA.

THE SOCIAL RECKONING HAS A TRAILER

On the outer edge of the MTFB watch list is Aaron Sorkin's The Social Reckoning, It's the sequel to The Social Network written by Sorkin and directed by David Fincher back in 2010. The new film stars Jeremy Strong as Mark Zuckerberg. Here's the trailer from YouTube:

The film has is set for release on Oct. 9th.

THE STORY OF DOCUMENTARY FILM HAS A POSTER

I'm not saying Mark Cousins' The Story of Documentary Film is a lock for TFF #53 but I'd be surprised if it didn't play the Fest. Here's a bit of a peek with a photo of the film's poster from Cousins' X account:

RELEASE DATE FOR FATHERLAND

Numerous sources reporting that Pawel Pawlikowski's Fatherland will release in the United States on Oct. 23rd. That's a release window that would easily allow a screening at TFF.

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Film Fest Heads Discuss the Future / Awards Radar Updates for Best Picture and TFF Potentials

2026-06-08T08:00:00.000-05:00

FILM FEST HEADS DISCUSS THE FUTURE

A couple of weeks back Indiewire hosted a conversation at Cannes featuring four film festival directors including Telluride's Julie Huntsinger. Other fest directors included were from Sundance, Berlin and New York. The convo was hosted by Indiewire's Anne Thompson.

The focus was the future of film festivals. You can see the entire 44 minute video at Indiewire's website.

That video and article are linked here.

https://www.indiewire.com/news/events/film-festival-directors-discuss-future-cannes-1235195002/

AWARDS RADAR UPDATES FOR BEST PICTURE AND TFF POTENTIALS

Joey Magidson of Awards Watch has updates his Best Picture predictions as of the end of the Cannes Film Fest. He lists 25 films in all and in their order of likelihood in terms of being nominated and winning the 2027 Oscar. I've broken those down into various categories as it relates to the potential for a TFF #53 play.

No chance: (Because they already have premiered before Telluride):

#2 The Odyssey

#4 Project Hail Mary

#9 Tony

#11 Disclosure Day

#14 Josephine (Sundance)

#21 The Invite

#24 Wuthering Heights

#25 Michael

Unlikely: (for a variety of reasons):

#1 Dune: Part Three

#6 Digger

#8 The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Smallish chance at Telluride:

#3 Wild Horse Nine

#5 The Social Reckoning

#10 Saturn Return

#12 I Play Rocky

#13 Being Heumann

#16 The Uprising

#17 Behemoth!

#19 Jack of Spades

#20 A Place in Hell

Decent chance at Telluride:

#7 Fjord

#15 Paper Tiger

#18 Clarissa

#22 All of a Sudden

#23 Artificial

Here are all of Magidson's predictions complete with commentary.

https://awardsradar.com/best-picture/

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Hope for Hope? / Announced Release Dates for TFF Possible Films / Yellow Letters and Berlin

2026-06-04T08:00:00.000-05:00

HOPE FOR HOPE?

Alex Billington at First Showing.net posted that Cannes competition choice Hope will be released in the U.S. on Sept. 9th which means it's a film that could play TFF #53...but it's cutting it very tight. TFF will conclude on Monday, Sept. 7th. The film made a minor splash at Cannes and ended that fest with a 6.15 rating on the Cannes-ratins.org website.

IMDb describes it:

"A mysterious discovery is made on the outskirts of the remote harbor town. The residents find themselves in a desperate fight for survival against something they have never encountered before."

The film is being distributed domestically by NEON which doesn't diminish any chance that it could play TFF.

For the moment I'm going to put it in the "possible but not probable" column.

Here's Billington's rundown of release dates throughout 2026.

https://www.firstshowing.net/schedule2026/#aug

As a matter of fact...

ANNOUNCED RELASE DATES FOR TFF POSSIBLE FILMS

Digger 10/2 (Has been announced as not planning any festival exposure)

The Social Reckoning 10/9

Wild Horse Nine 11/6

I Play Rocky 11/13

YELLOW LETTERS AND BERLIN

Mubi posted an overview of Ilker Catak's Berlin Golden Bear winner Yellow Letters on Monday which reminded me that I haven't really mentioned that I think it has a very good shot at making the TFF lineup. Catak was at Telluride in 2023 with The Teacher's lounge which ended up with an Oscar nomination for Best International Feature.

The description for Yellow Letters goes like this:

"The marriage of Derya and Aziz is under pressure after losing their jobs because of state arbitrariness and moving to Istanbul to live with Aziz's parents. They and their 13-year-old daughter Ezgi have to redefine their way of life."

Additionally, I think the other Berlin film that might show at The SHOW is Markus Schleinzer's Rose starring the actress of the moment Sandra Huller. Huller won the Berlin award for Best Actress. Rose is also being distributed by MUBI.

The description for Rose:

"A woman in the early 17th century, who is disguised as a man and wants to be a good citizen at any cost."

I'm not saying these are locks for TFF #53 by any means but, I wouldn't be surprised if one or both where in the lineup on announcement morning.

The MUBI overview for Yellow Letters is linked here.

https://mubi.com/en/notebook/posts/being-powerless-but-ethical-in-erdogan-s-new-turkey-ilker-catak-s-yellow-letters

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Fatherland Has a Trailer / The Dreamed Adventure Is Acquired / Everytime Is Acquired

2026-06-01T08:42:07.731-05:00

FATHERLAND HAS A TRAILER

Many readers of MTFB have already picked up on the notion that Pawel Pawlikowski's Fatherland is right up there as far as films I'm hoping make an appearance at TFF #53. I was a pretty big fan of his 2018 film Cold War (Thrice Oscar nominated!). Unfortunately I've never been able to catch his 2013 Oscar winning film Ida (Best Foreign Language Film).

At any rate, I'm very much looking forward to Fatherland and have a good feel about its chances for Telluride.

MUBI, which has the distribution pf the film for the U.S. released a trailer for the film late last week. here it is from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-I2-X9v-ogs

Looks impressive!

THE DREAMED ADVENTURE IS ACQUIRED

Janus films has acquired all North American rights to Valeska Grisebach‘s The Dreamed Adventure according to The Hollywood Reporter The film was a late-screened film at Cannes and won the Jury Prize. The IMDb description of the film goes like this:

"A woman...agrees to a deal to help an old acquaintance. She follows the hero on his adventure and enters dangerous territory where she is then confronted with her own desire."

The acquisition by Janus could facilitate a play at TFF #53. Janus isn't a house that is at every Telluride but they show up at a lot of them, especially lately:

2025: Carol & Joy

2024: All We Imagine as Light, Misericordia, Made in England: The Film of Powell and Pressburger

2023: Anselm, Totem, Orlando: My Political Biography

2022: Godland, Tori and Lokita

With a solid 6.93 compiled critical rating from Cannes-ratings.org, it seems well situated for a TFF slot. we'll see.

Here's the link to the story from The Hollywood Reporter.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/cannes-film-prize-winner-the-dreamed-adventure-janus-deal-1236607903/

EVERYTIME IS ACQUIRED

The Hollywood Reporter also posted that Sandra Wollner's Everytime has been acquired for North America by fledgling outfit 1-2 Special. Everytime played in the Un Certain Regard section of Cannes and won the UCR Grand Prize. Its Cannes-ratings.org compiled critics' rating was a sturdy 7.33.

Additionally, although fairly new to the game, 1-2 Special landed Harris Dickenson's Urchin at last year's TFF.

Everytime's IMDb description:

"Follows a mother, her daughter, and a teenage boy blamed for a tragic death as they travel to Tenerife together, confronting grief, blame, and forgiveness on a family holiday that never happened."

The Hollywood Reporter Story is linked here.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/cannes-un-certain-regard-winner-everytime-1-2-special-deal-1236609015/

1-2 Special also has Cannes success La Gradiva (which had this year's highest rated film per Cannes-ratins.org at 8.25). Which makes you think it could be a candidate for Telluride as well.

Ls Gravdiva's IMDb description:

"A group of high school students sets off on a school trip to discover the ruins of Pompeii. They are seized by a sense of vertigo. They allow themselves to be overwhelmed by desire and anger, until they surrender completely."

All worth keeping an eye on.

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Neglia Takes a Stab / Black Ball Teaser / Acquisition News Out of Cannes

2026-05-28T07:43:51.126-05:00

NEGLIA TAKES A STAB

Matt Neglia of Next Best Picture (and remember Matt was on the ground in Cannes for the first two thirds or so) posted on his X account on Monday some speculation about where all of the Cannes' Palme d'Or competition films might go during the upcoming fall film fest frenzy. Of the 22, Matt has named 8 films that he thinks may be a part of the TFF #53 lineup...

Again, Matt's predictions: All of a Sudden, Bitter Christmas, The Black Ball, Coward, Fatherland, Fjord, Minotaur and Paper Tiger.

I'm most interested in Paper Tiger, Fatherland and Coward. Could get interested in Fjord, Minotaur and All of a Sudden.

THE BLACK BALL TEASER

We have a teaser from The Black Ball, which we're on TFF#53 alert for. Could it be in Telluride on Labor Day weekend?

Here it is via YouTube and MovieStar Plus:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAZ8aVMfAUw

ACQUISITION NEWS OUT OF CANNES

Deadline reports that Netflix has acquired The Black Ball for distribution and Gentle Monster as well. The pick-up doesn't either hurt a film's chances for a play at Telluride as Netflix has become a very visible presence at the fest for the last several years.

Here's the Deadline article.

https://deadline.com/2026/05/netflix-cannes-lea-seydoux-gentle-monster-1236919715/

Meanwhile, MUBI has grabbed the North American distribution rights for Kukas Dhont's Coward. That's also a move that doesn't hurt the prospects for Coward to be at TFF. Dhont has previously presented two films at Telluride: Girl in 2018 and Close in 2022.

Here's that story from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/news/coward-lukas-dhont-mubi-north-american-rights-1236755499/

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Prize Winners from Cannes / Stacking Up with the Recent Past / What the Ratings Suggest

2026-05-25T07:24:58.365-05:00

PRIZE WINNERS FROM CANNES

It's all over in France. The 79th Cannes Film Festival closed with its awards ceremony on Saturday evening and Cristian Mungiu's Fjord won the Palme d'Or. It was Mungiu's second Palme win after having won previously for Four Years, Three Weeks, Two Days back in 2007. That film played the Telluride Film festival.

Complete winners from the Palme d'Or official competition:

Palme d'Or: Fjord (Mungiu)

Grand Prix: Minotaur (Zvyaginastev)

Jury Prize: The Dreamed Adventure (Grisebach)

Best Direction (Tie): Fatherland (Pawelkowski) and The Black Ball (Calvo and Ambrossi)

Best Screenplay: A Man of His Time (Marre)

Best Actress (Tie): All of a Sudden (Efira and Okamoto)

Best Actor (Tie): Coward (Macchia and Campagne)

STACKING UP WITH THE RECENT PAST

For comparison's sake, here's a winner of the same categories over the last five years with eventual TFF selections indicated with an *.

2025

Palme d'Or: It Was Just an Accident (Panahi)*

Grand Prix: Sentimental Value (Trier)*

Jury Prize: (Tie) Sirat (Laxe) and The Sound of Falling (Schilinski)

Best Direction: The Secret Agent (Mendonca)*

Best Screenplay: Young Mothers (Luc and Jean-Pierre Dardennes)

Best Actress: The Little Sister (Nadia Melliti)

Best Actor (Tie): The Secret Agent (Wagner Moura)*

Special Prize: Ressurection (Gan)

2024

Palme d'Or: Anora (Baker)*

Grand Prix: All We Imagine as Light (Kapadia)*

Jury Prize: Emilia Perez (Audiard)*

Best Direction: Grand Tour (Gomes)

Best Screenplay: The Substance (Fargeat)

Best Actress: Emilia Perez (Gascon, Saldana, Gomez and Paz)*

Best Actor: Kinds of Kindness (Plemons)

Special Prize: The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Rasoulof)*

2023

Palme d'Or: Anotomy of a Fall (Triet)*

Grand Prix: The Zone of Interest (Glazer)*

Jury Prize: Fallen Leaves (Kaurismaki)*

Best Direction: The Taste of Things (Tran Ahn Hung)*

Best Screenplay: Monster (Sakamoto, dir: Kore-eda)

Best Actress: About Dry Grasses (Merve Dizdar)

Best Actor: Fallen Leaves (Koji Yakoshu)*

2022

Palme d'Or: Triangle of Sadness (Ostlund)

Grand Prix: (Tie): Stars at Noon (Denis) and Close (Dhont)*

Jury Prize: (Tie): Eo (Skolimowski) and Eight Mountains (Vandermeersch and Groeningen)

Best Direction: Decision to Leave (Chan-wook)

Best Screenplay: Boy from Heaven (Saleh)

Best Actress: Holy Spider (Amir Ebrahimi)*

Best Actor: Broker (Kang-ho)*

Special 75th Anniversary Prize: Tori and Lokita (Dardennes)*

2021

Palme d'Or: Titane (Ducournau)

Grand Prix: (Tie): Compartment No. 6 (Kuosmanen) and A Hero (Farhadi)*

Jury Prize: (Tie): Ahed's Knee (Lapid) and Memoria (Weerasethakul)

Best Direction: Annette (Carax)

Best Screenplay: Drive My Car (Hamaguchi)

Best Actress: The Worst Person in the World (Renate Reinsve)

Best Actor: Nitram (Caleb Landry Jones)

As you can see, winning the Plame d'Or isn't a guarantee that a film will play at TFF although the last three have.

As to the rest of the categories, here's where they stand over the five years with winners then being a part of TFF:

Grand Prix: 5 (it's the most solid category in terms of a Cannes/Telluride connection).

Jury Prize: 2

Director: 2

Screenplay: 0

Actress: 2

Actor: 3

Special Prizes: 2

So your best odds by this metric favor 2026 Grand Prix winner Minotaur.

Next best are for Palme winners and Best Actor which would point toward: Fjord and Coward.

After that it gets very murky...

WHAT THE RATINGS SUGGEST

Taking a look at Cannes results over the last five years that have made the connection between Cannes and Telluride is, at the least interesting, and may be instructive as to anticipating what films might make that journey this year.

First, the average number of films that do the Telluride/Cannes two step seems to have increased over the past five years. Here's the number that have made it since 2021:

2021-7

2022-9

2023-10

2024-8

2025-9

That averages out to 8.6 films each year.

Now, using the ratings from Cannes-ratings.org, where did these 43 films land on their 10point scale?

2021:

A Hero 7.30

Red Rocket 7.30

The French Dispatch 7.11

Bergman Island 7.09

The Velvet Underground 6.83

Cow 6.80

Unclenching the Fists 6.24

2022:

The Pupils 8.37

Aftersun 8.17

Close 7.76

Broker 7.47

Godland 7.38

One Fine Morning 7.34

Armageddon Time 6.90

Holy Spider 6.70

Tori and Lokita 6.32

2023:

The Zone of Interest 8.19

Perfect Days 7.91

Anatomy of a Fall 7.90

Fallen Leaves 7.46

La Chimera 7.46

The Taste of Things 7.01

Occupied City 6.97

Anselm 6.41

Little Girl Blue 6.21

Room 999 (no ratings found)

2024:

Anora 8.35

Misericordia 7.47

Bird 7.45

Emilia Perez 7.42

All We Imagine as Light 7.02

The Apprentice 6.94

Santosh 6.07

2025:

Sentimental Value 8.04

It Was Just an Accident 7.75

Pillion 7.30

Nouvelle Vague 7.23

Urchin 7.15

A Private Life 6.99

Mastermind 6.29

The History of Sound 5.81

43 films in all with 2025's The History of Sound being the lowest rated film to be picked up of any of the 43 by TFF.

The vast majority of films clear the 6.5 bar. That's true for 35 of he 43 films listed above. So what do this year's ratings signal, if anything?

Using the 6.5 or above metric and also being a little sly about films that are on the MTFB watch list, here's some takeaways:

32 films in all sections of Cannes #79 were above the 6.5 threshold. Among them, here are some films that I have on the MTFB watch list and where they are on the Cannes-ratings.org list:

#7) All of a Sudden 7.39

#10) Coward 7.28

#11) Minotaur 7.03

#21) Fjord 6.69

Other films that made enough of a splash that could earn them spots on the MTFB Watch List:

#1 Club Kid 8.37

#13 The Dreamed Adventure 6.94

#15 The Black Ball 6.91

#24 Avedon 6.50

#31 Clarissa 6.43

MTFB Watch list films that may have taken a hit:

#40 Fatherland 6.15

#42 Paper Tiger 6.15

#43 Hope 6.14

Off the top 50 grid so...you know...

Moulin 5.73

Gentle Monster 4.66

Sheep in the Box 4.53

Parallel Tales 4.22

The Unknown 4.14

Draw your own conclusions...the first official "Ten Bets" for TFF #53 drops on June18th.

SPECIAL SATURDAY POST: FINAL CRITICAL CHECK-IN BEFORE CANNES AWARDS

2026-05-23T10:21:22.229-05:00

FINAL CRITICAL CHECK-IN BEFORE CANNES AWARDS

Updated as of this morning at 10:30 am (EST) for all 22 Palme competition tiles

IONCINEMA (5 point scale)

1) Fatherland 3.7

1) Fjord 3.7

1) Coward 3.7

4) Minotaur 3.5

5) A Man of His Time 3.4

5) The Man I Love 3.4

7) All of a Sudden 3.3

8) Paper Tiger 3.2

8) The Beloved 3.2

10) Hope 3.2

11) Naji Notes 2.8

11) The Black Ball 2.8

11) A Woman's Life 2.8

14) Bitter Christmas 2.7

14) Moulin 2.7

16) Gentle Monster 2.6

16) Another Day 2.6

18) The Unknown 2.4

18) Parallel Tales 2.4

20) Sheep in the Box 2.2

Note: Ioncinema did not have ratings this morning for The Dreamed Adventure or The Birthday Party.

SCREEN DAILY (4 point scale)

1) Fatherland 3.3

2) Minotaur 3.2

3) All of a Sudden 3.1

3) The Dreamed Adventure 3.1

5) Paper Tiger 2.8

5) A Man of His Time 2.8

5) Hope 2.8

8) Fjord 2.5

8) Naji Notes 2.5

10) The Man I Love 2.4

11) Bitter Christmas 2.2

12) The Black Ball 2.1

13) Coward 2.0

13) The Beloved 2.0

15) A Woman's Life 1.9

15) Moulin 1.9

15)The Unknown 1.9

18) Gentle Monster 1.8

19) Another Day 1.7

19) Parallel Lives 1.7

21) Sheep in the Box 1.3

22) The Birthday Party 1.1

INTERNATIONAL CINEPHILE SOCIETY (4 point scale)

1) Paper Tiger 3.69

2) Fatherland 3.58

2) A Man of His Time 3.54

4) The Man I Love 3.50

5) All of a Sudden 3.38

6) Minotaur 3.23

7) The Unknown 3.19

8)The Dreamed Adventure 3.05

9) Coward 3.00

9) Fjord 3.00

11) Bitter Christmas 2.96

12) Moulin 2.75

13) Hope 2.71

14) A Woman's Life 2.64

15) Naji Notes 2.62

16) The Birthday Party 2.55

17) The Beloved 2.54

18) Gentle Monster 2.45

18) Another Day 2.45

20) The Black Ball 2.23

21) Sheep in the Box 2.04

22) Parallel Tales 1.69

CANNES-RATINGS.ORG (10 point scale)

1) Bitter Christmas 7.46

2) Coward 7.43

3) All of a Sudden 7.36

4) Minotaur 6.99

5) The Black Ball 6.94

6) The Dreamed Adventure 6.72

7) Fjord 6.64

8) The Beloved 6.49

9) A Man of His Time 6.4

10) Another Day 6.23

11) Paper Tiger 6.14

12) Hope 6.09

13) Fatherland 6.08

14) A Woman's Life 5.56

15) Moulin 5.35

16) The Man I Love 5.28

17) Naji Notes 6.27

18) Gentle Monster 4.73

19) Sheep in the Box 4.44

20) Parallel Tales 4.17

21) The Unknown 4.13

22) The Birthday Party 3.99

and the MTFB "touch" the combination from all four sources.

1) Fatherland 13.62

2) All of a Sudden 13.46

3) Minotaur 13.45

4) A Man of His Time 12.94

5) Paper Tiger 12.76

6) The Dreamed Adventure 12.68

7) Fjord 12.52

8) Coward 12.42

9) The Man I Love 11.94

10) Hope 11.76

11) Bitter Christmas 11.59

12) The Beloved 10.99

13) The Black Ball 10.60

14) Naji Notes 10.56

15) A Woman's Life 10.12

16) Moulin 10.03

17) Another Day 9.87

18) The Unknown 9.56

19) Gentle Monster 9.22

20) Parallel Tales 7.88

21) Sheep in the Box 7.76

22) The Birthday Party 5.65

The Kalshi line for the Plame d'Or as of 10:30am (EST): Minotaur, All of a Sudden, Fatherland. Big spike for Minotaur in the past few hours.

SPECIAL FRIDAY UPDATE: CANNES AND THE CRITICS

2026-05-22T10:04:35.330-05:00

SPECIAL FRIDAY UPDATE: CANNES AND THE CRITICS

With the awards now only hours away in France. MTFB is updating our window on the critical response there.

Additional titles have screened and continued adding of critics' responses puts us with 12 films we're including in our analysis of what's what at Cannes

Here's the rundown on each film from each critical accumulator I'm following: Ioncinema, Screen Daily, The International Cinephile Society and Cannes-ratings.org.

IONCINEMA (5 point scale)

1) Fatherland 3.7

1) Fjord 3.7

1) Coward 3.7

4) Minotaur 3.5

5) A Man of His Time 3.4

5) The Man I Love 3.4

7) All of a Sudden 3.3

8) Paper Tiger 3.2

8) The Beloved 3.2

10) Hope 3.2

11) Bitter Christmas 3.0

12) The Black Ball 2.8

SCREEN DAILY (4 point scale)

1) Fatherland 3.3

2) Minotaur 3.2

3) All of a Sudden 3.1

4) Paper Tiger 2.8

4) Hope 2.8

4) A Man of His Time 2.8

7) Fjord 2.5

8) Bitter Christmas 2.2

9) The Man I Love 2.1

9) The Black Ball 2.8

11)Coward 2.0

11) The Beloved 2.0

INTERNATIONAL CINEPHILE SOCIETY (4 point scale)

1) Paper Tiger 3.69

2) Fatherland 3.54

2) A Man of His Time 3.54

4) The Man I Love 3.50

5) All of a Sudden 3.38

6) Minotaur 3.23

7) Coward 3.06

8) Bitter Christmas 3.00

9) Fjord 2.96

10) Hope 2.71

11) The Beloved 2.54

12) The Black Ball 2.05

CANNES-RATINGS.ORG (10 point scale)

1) The Black Ball 8.62

2) Coward 7.80

3) Bitter Christmas 7.48

4) All of a Sudden 7.27

5) Minotaur 7.00

6) Fjord 6.81

7) The Beloved 6.49

8) Hope 6.37

9) A Man of His Time 6.33

10) Fatherland 6.12

11) Paper Tiger 6.07

12) The Man I Love 5.44

and the MTFB "touch" the combination from all four sources*.

1) Fatherland 13.60

2) Minotaur 13.42

2) All of a Sudden 13.42

4) A Man of His Time 12.91

5) Paper Tiger 12.73

6) Coward 12.66

7) Fjord 12.57

8) Bitter Christmas 11.94

9) Hope 11.90

10) The Man I Love 11.72

11) The Black Ball 11.26

12) The Beloved 10.99

* Ratings have been balanced for each source.

Finally the Kalshi line this morning for the Palme d'Or have All of a Sudden out front with The Black Ball at #2 and Fatherland at #3.

The critics are all over the place with various groups placing films at wildly divergent spots within this top 12. Look again at the combined ratings with the addition of what spot they're at in each of the four groups. It's crazily inconsistent:

1) Fatherland 13.60 [1-1-2-10]

2) Minotaur 13.42 [4-2-6-5]

2) All of a Sudden 13.42 [7-3-5-4]

4) A Man of His Time 12.91 [5-4-2-9]

5) Paper Tiger 12.73 [8-4-1-11]

6) Coward 12.66 [1-11-7-2]

7) Fjord 12.57 [1-7-9-6]

8) Bitter Christmas 11.94 [11-8-8-3]

9) Hope 11.90 [10-4-10-8]

10) The Man I Love 11.72 [5-9-4-12]

11) The Black Ball 11.26 [12-9-12-1]

12) The Beloved 10.99 [8-11-11-7]

My gut leans toward All of a Sudden.

A Tough week for Farhadi (Parallel Tales), Kruetzer (Gentle Monster), Kore-eda (Sheep in the Box), Harari (The Unknown) and Nemes (Moulin).

Source links:

Ioncinema

https://www.ioncinema.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/2026-cannes-grid-bitter-christmas.jpg

Screen Daily

https://www.screendaily.com/cannes-jury-grid

International Cinephile Society

https://icsfilm.org/cannes-ics-grid/cannes-2026-ics-press-industry-panel/

Cannes-ratings.org

https://cannes-ratings.org/

SPECIAL: Cannes Critics' Update

2026-05-21T09:55:11.312-05:00

SPECIAL: CANNES CRITICS UPDATE-THURSDAY

As an addendum to today's regular post I am updating the critics' charts with the most recently available information.

We're looking what seem to be the eight critical favorites from the Palme d'Or competition. Each of them are somewhere on the MTFB radar as possible titles for TFF #53. Currently, the charts are missing sufficient data on 4-5 films (keep an eye on the critical response to Lukas Dhont's Coward) Award winners will be announced on Saturday.

Here's the rundown on each film from each critical accumulator I'm following: Ioncinema, Screen Daily, The International Cinephile Society and Cannes-ratings.org.

IONCINEMA (5 point scale)

1) Fatherland 3.7

1) Fjord 3.7

3) Minotaur 3.5

4) All of a Sudden 3.3

5) Paper Tiger 3.2

5) The Beloved 3.2

5) Hope 3.2

8) Bitter Christmas 2.9

SCREEN DAILY (4 point scale)

1) Fatherland 3.3

2) Minotaur 3.2

3) All of a Sudden 3.1

4) Paper Tiger 2.8

4) Hope 2.8

6) Fjord 2,5

7) Bitter Christmas 2.2

8) The Beloved 2.0

INTERNATIONAL CINEPHILE SOCIETY (4 point scale)

1) Paper Tiger 3.69

2) Fatherland 3.54

3) All of a Sudden 3.38

4) Minotaur 3.23

5) Bitter Christmas 3.04

6) Fjord 2.82

7) Hope 2.71

8) The Beloved 2.54

CANNES-RATINGS.ORG (10 point scale)

1) Bitter Christmas 7.61

2) Minotaur 7.38

3) All of a Sudden 6.86

4) Fjord 6.69

5) The Beloved 6.51

5) Hope 6.51

7) Fatherland 6.03

8) Paper Tiger 6.02

and the MTFB "touch" the combination from all four sources*.

1) Minotaur 13.62

2) Fatherland 13.56

3) All of a Sudden 13.21

4) Paper Tiger 12.70

5) Fjord 12.37

6) Bitter Christmas 12.00

7) Hope 11.95

8) The Beloved

* Ratings have been balanced for each source.

Finally the Kalshi line this morning for the Palme d'Or have All of a sudden and Minotaur in a dead heat closely followed by Fatherland.

Source links:

Ioncinema

https://www.ioncinema.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/2026-cannes-grid-bitter-christmas.jpg

Screen Daily

https://www.screendaily.com/cannes-jury-grid

International Cinephile Society

https://icsfilm.org/cannes-ics-grid/cannes-2026-ics-press-industry-panel/

Cannes-ratings.org

https://cannes-ratings.org/

Cannes Continues / Some Buzz from Eisenberg / Mike Leigh Has a Title

2026-05-21T07:30:00.000-05:00

CANNES CONTINUES

The 79th Cannes Film Fest has passed its halfway mark and is barreling toward its conclusion this weekend. Taking a look at the metrics from Screen Daily, Ioncinema and Cannes-ratings.org, here are the films that seem to be at the forefront critically (*** indicates that the film is on my TFF watch list):

From Screen Daily (films in Palme competition with a better than 2.5 rating on a four point scale):

1) Fatherland 3.3***

2) All of a Sudden 3.1***

3) Paper Tiger 2.8***

3) Hope 2.8***

5) Naji Notes 2.5

The complete Screen Daily chart is linked here.

https://edition.pagesuite-professional.co.uk/html5/reader/production/default.aspx?pubname=&edid=7d45952f-7ff1-4ba7-b98c-78b6cf24da1e

From Ioncinema (films in Palme competition with a better than 3.0 rating on a five point scale):

1) Fatherland 3.7***

2) Fjord 3.5***

3) All of a Sudden 3.3***

4) Paper Tiger 3.2***

4) The Beloved 3.2

6) Hope 3.1***

The complete Ioncinema grid is linked here.

https://www.ioncinema.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/2026-cannes-grid-fjord.jpg

From Cannes-ratings.org (films in Palme competition with a better than 7.0 rating on a 10 point scale and a minimum of 8 reviews):

1) Fjord 7.81***

2) Bitter Christmas 7.53***

3) All of a Sudden 7.24***

3) The Beloved 7.24

Of special note is the hugely favorable critical reception to Club Kid from the Un Certain Regard section at Cannes. It has a stellar 8.43 rating to lead all films in any section of the fest. News broke on Tuesday that the film had been picked up for U.S. distribution by A24 after a bidding war that included: Netflix, Searchlight, Focus Features and MUBI according to this story from Variety.

The critical reception, the players vying for the film and the ultimate winning bid is enough to make me pay attention to it as a possible TFF selection. Stay tuned.

Club Kid is a first feature for director/writer Jordan Firstman. . The IMDb description is:

"A washed-up New York party promoter is forced to turn his life around when an unexpected visitor arrives."

The complete set of ratings from Cannes-ratins.org is linked here.

https://cannes-ratings.org/

According to Kalshi (as of yesterday), Minotaur has the best odds to win the Palme followed by All of a Sudden and Fatherland.

SOME BUZZ FOR EISENBERG

Spooking around the interwebs yesterday I came across the news that what has been referred to as "The Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Musical Comedy now has an actual title: No One Cares. It also seems that the film has been screened at Cannes and it seems that the screening went well. So says World of Reel.

WOR describes the film as follows:

"Starring Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti, with Eisenberg also appearing briefly, “No One Cares” is set in “the high-stakes world of community theater,” and follows a shy woman (Moore) who is unexpectedly cast in a local production of an original musical."

Giamatti plays the director of the community theater production. I think it sounds great and I have had it on my TFF #53 watch list for some time mostly because Eisenberg screened A Real Pain at TFF in 2024. That seemed to work out fairly well. The film is being distributed by A24 which doesn't hurt. Additionally WOR writes:

"A24 is positioning the film for a fall premiere, potentially at the Telluride Film Festival and then at the Toronto International Film Festival. An Oscar campaign will likely be mounted for all key players involved."

MIKE LEIGH HAS A TITLE

Another "Untitled Project" has an actual title and that's the next film from director Mike Leigh. The name: Tender Loving Care. Past that we know almost nothing about the project. You can likely glean a bit of info from what IMDb still lists as "Untitled 2025 Mike Leigh Project" which we assume is the same thing as the newly christened Tender Loving Care.

That IMDb info is linked here.

https://pro.imdb.com/title/tt35638092/details

The IMDb entry reveals that Bleeker Street is the U.S. distributor.

Considering Leigh's frequent stops at TFF over the years (Secrets and Lies, Happy-Go-Lucky, Another Year and others) you have to believe there's a decent chance that if it's ready, Tender Loving Care has a decent shot to play TFF #53.

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Early Returns from Cannes / Cousins New Doc Gets Distribution / Pics for Gentle Monster

2026-05-18T08:00:00.000-05:00

EARLY RETURNS FROM CANNES

Though we're only through the first few days of the Cannes International Film Festival, we're already seeing the emergence of some potential prize-winners for the fest. Here's the early version of the Screen Daily panel of critics:

SCREEN DAILY

As you can see the early films making a mark here are Pawlikowskis' Fatherland and Hamaguchi's all of a Sudden. Both films have been fairly consistently on the various lists I have posted since the Oscar ceremony and before. Meanwhile. Ioncinema's chart echoes the status of both Father land and All of a Sudden:

Meanwhile, we're awaiting a sufficient number of reviews to be accumulated at Cannes-ratings.org to truly make any assumption regarding where films are truly standing withe regard to that metric.

Couple of other notes here. Both Farhadi's Parallel Tales, Kore-eda's Sheep in a Box and Kruetzer's Gentle Monster seem on shaky ground as regards prizes at Cannes and perhaps as contenders for TFF #53.

COUSINS NEW DOCUMENTARY (ABOUT DOCUMENTARIES) GETS DISTRIBUTION

Telluride regular Marc Cousins (The Story of Film, A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things among several others) has garnered distribution for his next project: The Story of Documentary Film) Kino Lorber has nabbed the North American rights for the 16 part doc about docs.

The question as to its possible appearance at Telluride rises from its inclusion at Sundance earlier this year. My best guess is that owing to Cousins frequent presence at TFF and his current position as a Resident Curator and his past position on the fest's Board of Advisors. as well as being a TFF Tributee in 2022...my bet is we get some of the 16 episodes.

The story reagrding the Kino Lober acquisition is linked here from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/global/kino-lorber-mark-cousins-the-story-of-documentary-film-1236751389/

PICS FROM GENTLE MONSTER

Via The Playlist's 27 Most Anticipated Films from Cannes'

https://theplaylist.net/2026-cannes-film-festival-27-most-anticipated-films-20260511

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Cannes Is On / Awards Watch Oscar Predictions and TFF Clues / Bitter Christmas Teaser and Poster / Pics of Possibles from Cannes

2026-05-14T07:24:58.908-05:00

CANNES IS ON

The 79th Cannes Film Festival is officially underway in France. As is our habit here at MTFB, we will monitor the fest for the next two weeks looking at buzz, critical reception and ultimately prize winners to assess prospects for films to do the Cannes/Telluride Two Step.

As I have often mentioned, the link between the two film fests is quite strong with an average of 7ish or so films playing each year, first at Cannes and then later at Telluride.

I also tend to look at Cannes-ratings.org, Ioncinema and Screen daily for collections of critical responses. Last year nine films made the trans-Atlantic leap from France to Colorado. Here's where they stood critically at Cannes based on the Cannes-ratings.org site's 10 point system:

Sentimental Value 8.04

It Was Just an Accident 7.75

Pillion 7.30

Nouvelle Vague 7.23

Urchin 7.15

The Secret Agent 6.99

Mastermind 6.29

A Private Life 5.90

The History of Sound 5.31

It's too early in the fest to start keeping tabs on the critical reactions but we may be able to begin to evaluate some of that in Monday's post.

AWARDS WATCH AND TFF CLUES

Erik Anderson has begun his annual updating list of predictions for Oscar '27 and I'm going through them for possible TFF titles. among the films that he lists as Best Picture possibilities, these are the ones that look most Telluride-friendly:

Fjord

Wild Horse Nine

Fatherland

The Social Reckoning

All of a Sudden

Sense and Sensibility

Behemoth!

Being Heumann

Coward

Hope

Jack of Spades

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Saturn Return

Sweetsick

No One Cares (Jesse Eisenberg musical)

The complete set of predictions from Awards Watch are linked here.

https://awardswatch.com/2027-oscar-predictions-best-picture-and-best-director-may/

BITTER CHRISTMAS TEASER AND POSTER

Pedro Almodovar's Bitter Christmas is playing Cannes...and could be a Telluride player as well. In conjunction with its bow at Cannes, there is a poster and a teaser. Here they be:

And the teaser from Sony Pictures Classics and YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PgPkSpuYpY&t=2s

PICS FROM POSSIBLES FROM CANNES:

***From Vanity Fair: Paper Tiger:

***From The Hollywood Reporter: Coward:

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Herzog and Cannes in 2026 / Tony Comes Off the List / Gaudagnino and Artificial Move to 2027

2026-05-11T08:43:00.001-05:00

HERZOG AND CANNES IN 2026

The confusion surrounding whether Werner Herzog's Bucking Fastard might or might not screen at Cannes seems to have been cleared up. Variety has reported that the film was selected but not for Palme d'Or competition. That appears to have not sat well with the Herzog camp as they reportedly turned down the invitation.

Variety further reports that the impetus for that decision has to do with the eligibilty for Rooney and Kate Mara who play sisters in the film. From Variety:

"The reason that “Bucking Fastard” won’t be playing at that the Palais is that it wasn’t offered a Cannes competition slot. Herzog had hoped that stars Rooney and Kate Mara, who are said to give searing performances as twin sisters, would be eligible for awards, according to a source close to the filmmakers."

Open speculation is that Herzog will likely now premiere the film at Venice...which would still leave it positioned to make the TFF #53 lineup.

The complete story from Variety is linked here.

https://variety.com/2026/film/news/werner-herzog-bucking-fastard-turns-down-cannes-invite-1236741890/

TONY COMES OFF THE LIST

I had included Matt Johnson's Tony (sort of origin story for celebrity chef Anthony Bourdain starring Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers) in the title role) on a couple of speculative lists for Telluride. That's moot now as we.ve seen that the film has been dated for release on August 7th.

GUADAGNINO AND ARTIFICIAL MOVE TO 2027

Another film that is probably off the list of TFF #53 possibles is Luca Guadagnino's Artificial. World of Reel reports that the film will be moving toa 2027 release primarily to avoid competing with Aaron Sorkin;s The Social Reckoning. Both films had been dated for Oct. 9th according to IMDB.

The story from WOR (and PageSixHollywood) reads:

"...Amazon/MGM has decided that “Artificial” won’t be released in the fall — instead it is now aiming for an early 2027 release because it “didn’t want the film to go up against [Aaron Sorkin’s] ‘The Social Network’ sequel,” which is set to release in October, given that the two films “share similar themes of cutthroat tech billionaires.”

The 2027 dating likely moves Artificial off the Telluride watch list.

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MTFB Is on Hiatus

2026-05-07T07:44:00.000-05:00

MTFB is on Hiatus. We'll return on Monday, May 11th.

Two Million Times / Collating You Didn't Know You Needed / Looks and Re-looks / No No Narnia

2026-05-04T08:00:00.015-05:00

TWO MILLION TIMES

MTFB blew past the two million view mark since the last post. The average views per post now is 818. That's a lot of reading...and writing. Thanks for taking a look...2,000,000 times.

COLLATING YOU DIDN'T KNOW YOU NEEDED

So, I went through the various lists that I have used to try to get a bead on TFF #53 including "Too Early" Oscar predictions, Cannes Speculation and ultimate choices, and "Most Anticipated" lists from the beginning of the year to get a sense of where my mind has been over the first four months of 2026 concerning potential TFF #53 films and here's what I discovered...

James Gray's Paper Tiger leads my take from all the different lists...not by much, but it is the film I have mentioned the most.

The next group all are close to Paper Tiger. Four films are grouped here:

Hamagichi's All of a Sudden, Guadagnino's Artificial, Inarritu's Digger and Munigiu's Fjord.

Weirdly, despite these four being the second most mentioned in my speculations I can't say any of them feel like a sure thing for TFF. And, of course, Warner Brothers has stated that Digger won't be doing any festivals much like Inarritu's The Revenant back in 2015).

The next group includes:

Almodovar's Bitter Christmas, Joel Coen's Jack of Spades, Farhadi's Parallel Tales and Kore-eda's Sheep in the Box.

And like the previous group, they all feel possible and none of them feel certain.

The final group has six films:

Herzog's Bucking Fastard, Pawlikowski's Fatherland, Sorkin's The Social Reckoning, McDonagh's Wild Horse Nine, Kwedar's Saturn Return and Harari's The Unknown.

I actually feel pretty good about Herzog and Pawlikowski. The other films in this group seem borderline possible.

Among the 18 other films that have appeared somewhere in m musings over the last four months, the most likely TFF candidates would appear to be:

The Long Winter (Haigh)

Coward (Dhont)

The Basics of Philosophy (Schrader)

As we begin the month of May we'll be paying particular attention to critical responses and ultimately the awards presentations out of Cannes which kicks off on May 12th and concludes May 23rd.

LOOKS AND RE-LOOKS

We have a clip from Oren Jacoby's This Is Not a Drill. The documentary screened at TFF #52. Here's the clip from YouTube and The Film Stage:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQNqE6lUk7Q

Also, we have a teaser/trailer for Asghar Farhadi's Parallel Tales with subtitles. Also from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3BV9KeJzGM

MTFB had it last week but didn't have a subtitled version.

NO NO NARNIA

I have been rather whimsically including an occasional mention that Greta Gerwig's Narnia; The Magician's Nephew might be a TFF #53 selection. Admittedly, it seemed unlikely but entirely outside the realm of possibility given the frequent appearance of Ms. Gerwig and/or her partner, Noah Baumbach at TFF over the years. Additionally, the fact that the it's from Netflix doesn't hurt in as far as a possible TFF play is concerned.

But all of that has been laid to rest as the film has been re-dates for a 2027 release. The Hollywood Reporter, among many outlets reported this on Friday. From THR:

"Gerwig’s adaptation of the sixth book in the C.S. Lewis fantasy series, The Magician’s Nephew...will now be getting a release on Feb. 12, 2027 and then will hit on Netflix April 2, 2027. Sneak previews of the film will begin on Feb. 10, 2027, only in Imax."

I guess it's still possible in a far-fetched scenario, that the film could still screen at Telluride, but with a release now coming nearly six months later...probably not.

Here's the link to the complete Hollywood Reporter article.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/netflix-narnia-movie-greta-gerwig-release-date-1236581880/

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E. Jean Carroll Doc Drops a Trailer / The Lives of Others On Stage /

2026-04-30T08:00:00.001-05:00

E. JEAN CARROLL DOC, ASK E. JEAN, DROPS A TRAILER

Ask E. Jean, a documentary that screened as a part of TFF #52, has released a trailer. That release comes ahead of a May 22nd release date.

Here's the IMDb description:

"E. Jean Carroll won two lawsuits against Donald Trump for defamation and battery. Beyond that, she built a career as a successful magazine writer and authored one of America's longest-running advice columns."

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

SEE THE LIVES OF OTHERS ON STAGE...IN ENGLAND...THIS FALL

One of my favorite Telluride experiences was catching Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck's The Lives of Others back in 2006 at my very first TFF. Didn't know anything about it and thought it was great. The film would go on to win the 2007 Best Foreign Language Oscar.

Now comes news that there is a stage adaptation on its way. Both Variety and The Hollywood Report had the story this week.

Big names are involves to as it was announced that the play will star Keira Knightley, Stephen Dillane and Luke Thompson.

Plans are for the film to open in October and run until January 2027.

Here's the link to the Variety report.

https://variety.com/2026/theater/global/keira-knightley-luke-thompson-the-lives-of-others-play-1236732265/

And also to the story from The Hollywood Reporter.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lifestyle/arts/keira-knightley-stephen-dillane-luke-thompson-play-west-end-1236580017/

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Mark Johnson's (The Awards Alchemist) First Oscar Stab (and Which Could Be at Telluride) / Titles and Rumors...AND I MEAN RUMORS!

2026-04-27T06:00:00.001-05:00

MARK JOHNSON'S (THE AWARDS ALCHEMIST) FIRST OSCAR STAB (AND WHICH OF THEM COULD BE AT TELLURIDE)

Mark Johnson who is housed at Awards Watch as "The Awards Alchemist" has posted his first look at predicting Oscar nominees for Best Picture for the 2026 run of films. MTFB analyzes his list and names "possible" TFF #53 selections. Today I'll also add for each, the biggest reason I think each of them could play TFF. Here's what that looks like:

*Wild Horse Nine (dir: McDonagh)...Best hint it plays: From Searchlight.

*Digger (dir:Inarritu)...Hint: Inarritu ( a reminder, this film has been reported to not play ANY fall fest).

*Saturn Return (dir: Kwedar)...Hint: From Netflix.

*Fjord (dir: Munigu) Hint: Cannes Selection and it's from NEON.

*The Social Reckoning (dir: Sorkin) Hint: I'm wishful thinking here. If it means anything, three major cast members have been recent TFF attendees: Jeremy Strong, Mikey Madison and Jeremy Allen White.

*Fatherland (was titled 1949 for a long time) (dir: Pawlikowski) Hint: Cannes Selection, Pawlikoski

and it's from MUBI.

*All of a Sudden (dir: Hamaguchi) Hint: Cannes Selection and from NEON.

*Jack of Spades (dir: J. Coen) Hint: Coen. sort of...mostly me wishing again.

*Bucking Fastard (dir: Herzog) Hint: Herzog.

*Narnia: The Magician's Nephew (dir: Gerwig) Hints: Gerwig and it's from Netflix.

*Behemoth! (dir: Gilroy) Hint: from Searchlight.

*Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Musical (dir: Eisenberg) Hints: Eisenberg and from A24.

*I Am Rocky (dir: Farrelly) Hint: From Amazon-MGM.

*Artificial (dir: Guadagnino) Hints: Guadagnino and from Amazon-MGM

*A Long Winter (dir: Haigh) Hints; Haigh and from MUBI.

*Paper Tiger (dir: Gray) Hints: Cannes Selection, Gray and from NEON.

*Being Heumann (dir: Heder) Hint: from Apple.

*Clarissa (dir: Esiri and Esiri) hint: from NEON.

*Tony (dir: Johnson) Hint: from A24.

*Parallel Tales (dir: Farhadi) Hints: Cannes Selectionand Farhadi.

*Bitter Christmas (dir: Almodovar) Hints: Cannes Selection, Almodovar and it's from SPC.

Here's the link to the complete list from Mark at Awards Watch.

https://awardswatch.com/2027-oscar-predictions-the-awards-alchemists-first-look-at-the-99th-academy-awards/

TITLES AND RUMORS...AND I MEAN RUMORS!

Spooking around the interwebs seeing fall film/Telluride speculation that mentions:

Danny Boyle's Ink

Andrew Haigh's A Long Winter

Ink is supposedly a 2027 release...sooo....

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Paper Tiger (and Others) Announced for Cannes / Meanwhile...Herzog NOT Cannes Bound / The Story That Won't End

2026-04-23T08:00:00.001-05:00

PAPER TIGER (AND OTHERS) ANNOUNCED FOR CANNES

Adam Driver on the set of Paper Tiger

As expected, the Cannes Film Festival added a number of films to several different sections on Wednesday. Most notable is the addition of James Gray's Paper Tiger to the Palme d'Or competition. That addition had been widely expected.

14 other films were added to various sections but, at first blush, none of those jumps out as a TFF #53 candidate. Of them, Diego Luna's Ashes, added as a Special Screening, intrigues me the most and if I had to point at one other film beyond Paper Tiger that could be in play for a Labor Day date in Telluride, that would be it.

Additionally, Variety reported yesterday that Paper Tiger has been acquired by NEON for North American distribution. NEON has been on tear in recent years as far as the Palme d'Or competition, winning every one since Parasite. The NEON acquisition doesn't hurt the film's chances of a TFF screening. Gray's last film, Armageddon Time, played TFF in 2022.

There are two articles from Variety from yesterday:

Variety article #1

https://variety.com/2026/film/festivals/cannes-victorian-psycho-maika-monroe-1236727917/

Variety article #2

https://variety.com/2026/film/festivals/james-gray-paper-tiger-johansson-driver-cannes-neon-1236727770/

MEANWHILE...HERZOG NOT CANNES BOUND

Per World of Reel, earlier reporting that Werner Herzog's Bucking Fastard was headed to the Premiere section at Cannes haven't proven out. Purportedly yesterday's Cannes announcement completes the films for all sections. Herzog's film was not among them.

In WOR's story from yesterday:

"Notably absent is Werner Herzog, whose “Bucking Fastard” came very close to entering the official competition but was ultimately offered a slot in the Cannes Premiere section — it now looks like the film will be headed to Venice in September."

The possible inclusion of Bucking Fastard at Venice certainly doesn't preclude its possible selection for TFF #53.

The complete World of Reel story is here.

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2026/4/22/cannes-2026-adds-16-titles-including-zachary-wigons-victorian-psycho-no-werner-herzog

THE STORY THAT WON'T END

You all remember the strife that the fest had in its efforts to eventually secure and screen the Aretha Franklin documentary Amazing Grace in 2019.

In 2022 director Adam Elliott brought suit against distributor NEON focused on claims of breach of contract and fraud.

You can find the details in this story from The Hollywood Reporter.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/neon-lawsuit-film-accounting-1236560710

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Digger Not Digging??? / Parallel Tales Trailer

2026-04-20T11:30:00.003-05:00

DIGGER NOT DIGGING???

Deadline reported last week that Alejandro G. Inarritu's hotly anticipated Digger starring Tom Cruise may not play any festival at all. The context for this was the presentation for the film at Cinemacon last week.

Of course, we know that Digger is not playing Cannes but with its announced Oct. 2nd release date many assumed (me included) that a Venice bow was in play followed (I would have thought) by a TFF #53 North American Premiere. Warner Bros. seems to have poured cold water on the notion. From Deadline:

"EXCLUSIVE: Warner Bros and Alejandro González Iñárritu’s Tom Cruise starrer Digger, which wowed at CinemaCon on Tuesday, is unlikely to debut at a fall festival, we can reveal.

The film’s October 2 release date has led to speculation, and anticipation, in many quarters that Venice or another fall festival would be in the cards. Six of Iñárritu’s seven films have premiered at either Cannes or Venice. However, according to multiple well-placed sources, that’s not the current plan. Of course, things can change, but at the moment, we hear that’s how the land lies.

Warner Bros and Legendary declined comment."

I suppose the "escape hatch" is the phrasing "that’s not the current plan. Of course, things can change," that leaves some wiggle room for something to change.

Honestly, I think the film could still make an appearance at Telluride. Inarritu has screened Babel, Biutiful, Birdman and Bardo at T-ride. The history/connection there is deep. In a normal year, Digger might have appeared at the top of my annual "Ten Bets" first take for Telluride in June. That will change now...but...I may still include the film somewhere in that initial Top Ten Bets.

For hoots...here's the current teaser from Digger from Warner Bros. and YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=digger+teaser+official

Stay tuned.

PARALLEL TALES TRAILER

Prior to its screening at Cannes, a trailer for Asghar Farhadi's Parallel Tales ha s been released. The trailer is in French so those of you who can speak/translate...here you go. For those of us who cannot...it's still an interesting glimpse at what the film will be. Here it is from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuLiRIkVkw

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Cannes Director's Fortnight Announced / NEON Grabs Hope / Tony May Be Late

2026-04-16T07:25:00.000-05:00

CANNES DIRECTOR'S FORTNIGHT ANNOUNCED

The Director's Fortnight Section of the 79th Cannes Film Festival has been announced. That information was released on Tuesday. Taking a quick look at the titles, the only film that jumps out as a possibility for TFF #53 is Kantemir Balagov's Butterfly Jam. Balagov was at Telluride in 2029 with Beanpole. I will say that Reed van Dyk's Atonement sounds interesting and might be worth keeping an eye on.

Butterfly Jam (Kantemir Balagov)***

9 Temples To Heaven (Sompot Chidgasornpongse)

Atonement (Reed Van Dyk)

Clarissa (Arie Esiri & Chuko Esiri)

Death has no master (Jorge Thielen Armand)

The Diary of a Chambermaid (Radu Jude)

Dora (July Jung)

La libertad doble (Lisandro Alonso)

Gabin (Maxence Voiseux)

I See Buildings Fall Like Lightning (Clio Barnard)

Low Expectations (Eivind Landsvik)

Once Upon A Time In Harlem (David Greaves)

La Perra (Dominga Sotomayor)

Shana (Lila Pinell)

Thanks for Coming (Merci d’être venu) (Alain Cavalier)

l’Espèce Explosive (Sarah Arnold)

Viva Carmen (Sebastian Laundenbach)

We Are Aliens (Kohei Kadowaki)

Le Vertige (Quentin Dupieux)

NEOIN GRABS HOPE

Reports that distributor NEON, which has a run of six straight films winning Cannes' Palme d'Or, has picked up U.S. distribution for Na Hong-jon's Hope. The film stars Michael Fassbender and Alicia Vikander. The acquisition makes me think that NEON thinks it could be a player when awards are handed out at the of Cannes. That's enough to make me think it might be a consideration for TFF.

The IMDb's description goes like this:

"A mysterious discovery is made on the outskirts of the remote harbor town. The residents find themselves in a desperate fight for survival against something they have never encountered before."

NEON's Palme run has included: Parasite, Titane, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, Anora and It Was Just an Accident. All but Titane and Triangle of Sadness subsequently played at Telluride.

TONY MAY BE LATE

I have had Matt Johnson's Tony on the periphery of my lists of "maybe" films for TFF #53 but I might have to re-calculate as World of Reel reports that the film is headed for reshoots beginning as early as next week.

Tony is based on a real episode from the life of legendary chef Anthony Bourdain. Bourdain os being played by "The Holdovers" breakout Dominic Sessa. Plans apparently are for the film to be available for fall festival time even with the additional filming schedule to take place now.

The complete World of Reel article is linked here.

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2026/4/12/a24s-tony-matt-johnsons-anthony-bourdain-biopic-heads-to-reshoots-this-month

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Cannes Extended / Digger Teaser / Peter Asher Trailer

2026-04-13T07:34:00.222-05:00

CANNES EXTENDED

We know that Cannes has announced a good deal of their lineup and in MTFB's last post, we looked at a number of those films that have already been announced as possible players for TFF #53. But there are some films still left to be unveiled for Cannes and that's what we're focusing on today.

Initially, James Gray's Paper Tiger and Werner Herzog's Bucking Fastard are both probably going to be added to the lineup. Multiple sources have been reporting that over the weekend. Both films would be possible candidates for Telluride and that's true regardless of whether they chosen for Cannes inclusion.

The best intell right now suggests that Paper Tiger would likely be added to the Palme d'Or competition slate and that Herzog's film may appear in the Cannes Premieres section.

Additionally, there is some reporting that a couple of TFF #53 film possibilities may be the Director's Fortnight portion of the fest. I'm referring to Kantemir Balagov's Butterfly Jam and Hirokazu Kore-eda's Look Back. Kore-eda is already set for the Palme competition lineup with Sheep in the Box.

Here are links to a number of sources regarding adding titles to Cannes:

Awards Watch's Erik Anderson.

World of Reel

World of Reel-Bucking Fastard

World of Reel-Director's Fortnight

DIGGER TEASER

Thanks to Alex Billington and First Showing, I was reminded that we have a teaser for Alejandro Inarritu's Digger from Warner Brothers. Here that is from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rd21PhsDHww

PETER ASHER TRAILER

And just out, a trailer for the Peter Asher documentary that played TFF #52. Everywhere Man: The Life and times of Peter Asher is from directors Daniel Geller and Diana Goldfine. It will be in theaters on June 19th. Here's the trailer from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIpHwQ94WvY

Here's the poster also:

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Cannes Announces / Photos from Cannes' Selections

2026-04-09T07:56:00.000-05:00

CANNES ANNOUNCES

The field of films for the 79th Cannes Film Festival have been announced. This is important because history tells us that it's highly likely that 6-8 of these films (mostly from the Palme d'Or competition category) will be selected/invited to play at TFF #53 this fall. Here, from Next Best Picture, are the fils that were announced this morning (films that I think have are the most likely for Telluride are indictaed with ***):

COMPETITION

"The Electric Kiss" (dir. Pierre Salvadori) Opening Night film.

“All Of A Sudden” (dir. Ryusuke Hamaguchi)***

“The Beloved” (dir. Rodrigo Sorogoyen)

“Bitter Christmas” (dir. Pedro Almodóvar)***

“The Black Ball” (dir. Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi)

“Coward” (dir. Lukas Dhont)***

“The Dreamed Adventure” (dir. Valeska Grisebac)

“Fatherland” (dir. Pawel Pawlikowski)*** (previously titled 1949)

“Fjord” (dir Cristian Mungiu)***

“Garance” (dir. Jeanne Herry)

“Gentle Monster” (dir. Marie Kreutzer)***

“Hope” (dir. Na Hong-Jin)

“The Man I Love” (dir. Ira Sachs)

“Minotaur” (dir. Andrey Zvyagintsev)***

“Moulin” (dir. Laszlo Nemes)***

“Nagi Notes” (dir. Kôji Fukada)

“Notre Salut” (dir. Emmanuel Marre)

“Parallel Stories” (dir. Asghar Farhadi)***

“Sheep in the Box” (dir. Hirokazu Kore-eda)***

“Stories Of The Night” (dir. Lea Mysius)

“The Unknown” (dir. Arthur Harari)***

“A Woman’s Life” (dir. Charline Bourgeois-Taquet)

UN CERTAIN REGARD

“Club Kid” (dir. Jordan Firstman)

“Congo Boy” (dir. Rafiki Fariala)

“Elephants in the Fog” (dir. Abinash Bikram Shah)

“Everytime” (dir. Sandra Wollner)

“I Am Always Your Maternal Animal” (dir. Valentina Maurel)

“I’ll Be Gone in June” (dir. Katharina Rivilis)

“Le Corset” (dir. Louis Clichy)

“The Meltdown” (dir. Manuela Martelli)

“Strawberries” (dir. Laïla Marrakchi)

“Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma” (dir. Jane Schoenbrun)

“Yesterday the Eye Didn’t Sleep” (dir. Rakan Mayasi)

OUT OF COMPETITION

“De Gaulle: L’Age de Fer” (dir. Antonin Baudry)

“Diamond” (dir. Andy Garcia)

“The Electric Kiss” (dir. Pierre Salvadori)

“Her Private Hell” (dir. Nicolas Winding Refn)

“Karma” (dir. Guillaume Canet)

“L’Abandon” (dir. Vincent Garenq)

“L’Objet Du Delit” (dir. Agnes Jaoui)

MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS

“Colony” (dir. Yeon Sang-ho)

“Full Phil” (dir. Quentin Dupieux)

“Jim Queen and the Quest for Chloroqueer” (dir. Nicolas Athane and Marco Nguyen)

“Roma Elastica” (dir. Bertrand Mandico)

“Sanguine” (dir. Marion Le Coroller)

SPECIAL SCREENINGS

“Avedon” (dir. Ron Howard)

“John Lennon: The Last Interview” (dir. Steven Soderbergh)

“Les Matins Merveilleux” (dir. Avril Besson)

“Les Survivants du Che” (dir. Christophe Réveille)

CANNES PREMIERE

“Heimsuchung” (dir. Volker Schlondorff)***

“Kokurojo: The Samurai and the Prisoner” (dir. Kiyoshi Kurosawa)

“Propeller One-Way Night Coach” (dir. John Travolta)

“The Third Night” (dir. Daniel Auteuil)

PHOTOS FROM CANNES' SELECTIONS

COWARD

FATHERLAND (1949)

VISITATION

FJORD

ALL OF A SUDDEN

MINOTAUR

THE UNKNOWN

According to Cannes head Thierry Fremaux per Next Best Picture, the lineup is 95% complete so other films will be added in the coming days. So, films like Herzog' Bucking Fastard and Gray's Paper Tiger could still have their World Premiere next month in France.

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A Week Until Cannes Announces-Updates on Possible TFF Films

2026-04-02T08:00:00.001-05:00

A WEEK UNTIL CANNES ANNOUNCES-UPDATES AND POSSIBLE TFF FILMS

With a week left until the Cannes Film Festival announces the bulk of its 2026 lineup...MTFB is laser focused on the titles that will be announced and their potential as possible choices for TFF #53. To remind readers, the two fests commonly share about 6-8 titles every year. Last year such films as Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, The History of Sound, Nouvelle Vague, It Was Just an Accident, The Mastermind, Urchin, A Private Life and Pillion screened in France and then appeared in Telluride for TFF #52.

Recently Ioncinema posted two separate pieces focused on what might play at Cannes. I have combined both to consolidate this list of TFF possibilities:

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Butterfly Jam/Balagov***

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

Gentle Monster/Kreutzer

Minotaur/Zvyagintsev***

Paper Tiger/Gray***

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

The Unknown/Harari/NEON

The first Ioncinema piece is linked here.

https://www.ioncinema.com/news/film-festivals/2026-cannes-film-festival-predictions-palme-dor-part-1

The second Ioncinema piece is linked here.

https://www.ioncinema.com/news/film-festivals/2026-cannes-film-festival-predictions-golden-palme-dor

Meanwhile, Jordan Ruimy has updated his Cannes predictions as of last Monday. His latest assessment includes what I think could be TFF titles:

1949 (Fatherland?)/Pawlikowski***/MUBI

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Butterfly Jam/Balagov

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

Gentle Monster/Kruetzer

Minotaur/Zvyagintsev***

Paper Tiger/Gray***

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

The Unknown/Harari/NEON

Here's Jordan's update.

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2026/3/30/variety-james-grays-paper-tiger-and-jane-schoenbruns-sex-and-death-at-camp-miasma-to-premiere-at-cannes

We'll know more next Thursday.

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