Michael's Telluride Film Blog and The Film Awards Clearinghouse

SAG Awards

2012-01-30T07:35:00.000-06:00

Good Morning!

One semi-big surprise at The Screen Actors Guild Awards last night as Jean Dujardin won Best Actor over George Clooney. That did nothing to dissuade those that believe that "The Artist" has a death grip on the Best Picture Oscar. The other tiny surprise ( I wasn't) was Viola Davis over Meryl Streep for Best Actress. All in all "The Help" scored three "Actors" on the evening.

There still may be a slight case to be made that "The Help" or even "Hugo" or "The Descendants" might stage an upset for BP on Oscar night...but it'd be a stretch. BTW, I still think Clooney ends up winning the Oscar.

Here's the complete film results from last night (via Awards Daily):

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role
★ Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Best Female Actor in a Leading Role
★ Viola Davis, The Help
Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role
★ Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role
★ Octavia Spencer, The Help
Best Cast in a Motion Picture
★ The Help

I expect to have a concluding post up from Sundance from Our Man in Utah later today sometime...look for that!

Later!

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Special to MTFB/FAC: Hazanavicius Wins/Sundance Concluding

2012-01-29T10:12:00.003-06:00

Good Morning, World!

The Director's Guild of America named "The Artist" director Michel Hazanavicius the winner of its award for directing feature films last night. Needless to say, that throws more fuel on the "It's a lock" for Best Picture fire. I think that notion is probably true. I have been thinking that one could make a reasonable case for the chances of an upset by "Hugo" or "The Descendants" or possibly even "The Help". But probably not.

The SAG awards are tonight. We'll have those results for you in tomorrow's post and also the parsing of them to see if they reveal any surprises or new wrinkles for the conventional wisdom as we edge closer to Oscar Day/Feb. 26.

Here's the complete skinny on last night's DGA awards from Rope of Silicon:
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/2012-directors-guild-awards-michel-hazanavicius/

SUNDANCE CONCLUDING

The Sundance Film Festival is ratcheting down and they announced their awards last night. Again, it seemed that there were two big, buzzy films: "Beasts of the Southern Wild" and "The Surrogate". The awards list underscores that. Here, from HitFix is the complete Sundance Awards rundown:
http://www.hitfix.com/articles/2012-sundance-film-festival-jury-awards-winners
IMDb page for "The Surrogate": http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1866249/
and for "Beasts..": http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2125435/

I am hoping to receive another dispatch or two from Our Man in Utah, Gant Lee of Cinema Bebop to pass along about his Sundance experiences.
http://cinemabebop.tumblr.com/

Later...

Our Man in Utah: Day 3

2012-01-28T07:57:00.002-06:00

Gant Lee of Cinema Bebop continues his assault on the Sundance Film Festival. Here's his latest post: Day 3 Man, things are speeding up around here quickly. I wish I could bore you with details, but I saw 4 films tonight and I forgot an event from yesterday. So I’m gonna make this quick. Last night, I had the privilege of attending a live performance/event for Joseph Gordon-Levitt’s production company, hitRECord. This open production company allows for people to upload their work to hitRECord.org and collaborate with other artists? Wrote a story? Someone will turn it into a song. Have little drawings? Someone will animate them. Throughout the event, people were encouraged to record the happenings to later upload for a particular Sundance project. One of such recordings that JGL conducted included me singing a song I’ve never heard before on a stage with a ton of strangers. I was nearly 2 feet away from JGL, so that’s cool……. For reasons unknown, none of my devices that I have on me can successfully upload pictures to this post. So, check out my Facebook or lesleyll.tumblr.com to see some pics from the event. It was a blast! Glad I made it in to something yesterday. Saw a Greek film this morning titled L. Didn’t like it as much as I expected. In the essence of time, suffice to say that it wasn’t as good as Dogtooth even with some same main crew members. 5.5/10 Caught a screening for Smashed with the only ticket that I was given all festival. It was fantastic. Mary Elizabeth Winstead did amazing and lived up to the hype. She was also there with the director to answer questions, smile, and just be pretty. The film did a great job showing the downsides to sobriety, something that isn’t really explored in other films. The script was fantastic and had one of the saddest lines I’ve ever heard in a movie. Perhaps Winstead’s acting just made the writing seem better, but probably not. It was a well written script and a great film all around. By the way, Ron Swanson is awkward in this; it went over well with the crowd. 9/10 Brady Corbet freaks me out; his role in the American version of Funny Games is still frightening to me. In his latest film Simon Killer, he continues his streak of weird characters. When his long-term relationship ends, Simon travels to France. His visit steadily goes down an odd path and ultimately to a point where it’s hard to root for the main character. The acting was brilliant (hence our hatred for Simon), the soundtrack was great, and the cinematography was very unique. And original vision, for sure. Brady and director Antonio Campos were there to field questions and are much nicer than this dark film would have you believe. A hard film to recommend to everybody because it’s so dark… 8/10 Lastly, I checked out the midnight screening of Tim and Eric’s Billion Dollar Movie. This mini-review is simple… If you love Tim and Eric, you’ll love this. If you don’t like Tim and Eric’s comedy, then you probably won’t like this. I could have seen this online had I wanted to (it was released on-demand today), but I wanted to experience it with a crowd full of fans. Without the restrictions of television, Tim and Eric have so much more freedom to do whatever they want with the film, something exemplified in the crude nature of the film. Sometimes, it felt like there was too much of a story, an odd concern for most films that aren’t adapted from 15-minute shows of unique humor. It never dragged; it just felt like they were trying too hard to make it a solid narrative through some middle parts. But that mildness and linearity was ruined often, and the audience was thankful for it. These problems were light and hardly did anything to make the film bad. It was hilarious! After the film, the programmer welcomed Tim and Eric to the stage… Except it was Tim and David Cross. A good time was had by all as David kept answering questions as Eric and Tim gave ridiculous answers to almost all questions. As they were leaving the theater, I patted Tim on the back and said, “Great job!” He smiled and said thanks. As for David, I shared with him a particular anecdote about my grandparents and a wedding he attended that he actually remembered. He said my grandparents were awesome, and then I should his hand. So yeah, pretty good screening. 8.5/10 Tomorrow is my last day! I hope I can make it special!

Our Man in Utah: Day 2

2012-01-27T10:47:00.001-06:00

Day 2 To say that this day was a success would be a near complete lie. I’m at a film festival and I didn’t watch one feature-length film today. Pathetic. As a result, I can take this opportunity to explain to readers what exactly the “wait list” is that I’m always tweeting about and compare the pros and cons of it. First, let’s talk about more buzz from around the festival. Given my misfortunes today, The Surrogate and Beasts of the Southern Wild are still the most talked about films around town. Each film had to reject ticketed patrons because of the big audiences. They didn’t overbook; I’ll explain later. They both have distribution, so that’s all that matters. In addition to these two films, people here (and on the interwebs) have been chatting up Mary Elizabeth Winstead’s performance in the drinking drama Smashed (which I have an actual ticket to for tomorrow). She stars opposite Breaking Bad’s Aaron Paul, so I’m highly stoked to see it. Josh Radnor’s sophomore effort Liberal Arts got picked up by IFC. His filmmaking abilities have apparently improved and he includes the ever-so-popular indie darling Elizabeth Olsen. Among the controversial buzz is a film called Compliance. People have reportedly been walking out of screenings verbally disgusted and offended by the true-event story of a teenage girl cashier accused of stealing something at a fast food restaurant. What she has to do in order to comply with authorities is apparently hard to watch. You say controversial; I say edgy. Screenings are finished for the film, so who knows what will happen with it next. Now, instead of trying to explain only the wait list, I’ll try to encapsulate the entire ticketing process. There are 3 ways of attending a film here at Sundance: passes, tickets, and the wait list. Passes are the fastest way to get in. You line up at the front and you flash your pass. Simple. Next are the tickets. You can go to the box office and pick up a ticket to any film you want for $15. Yeah, that sounds easy, but it isn’t. Hot films sellout FAST. If there is a large volume of passholders, there may even be a chance that ticketed patrons don’t even get in. In that case, I believe a refund is rewarded. Then there is the wait list. My particular student pass allows me to wait list for free, so that’s what I do a lot. Two hours before the screening starts, wait list tickets are handed out guaranteeing you a spot in the same wait list line 30 minutes before the show. Yes, it’s a line for a ticket for a line for a ticket. It’s not all that confusing though, I promise. After all the passholders and tickets get through and somehow seats are still available, then the wait list gets tickets for $15. It’s what the lazy and slower people do for the festival. On Wednesday, I was 2/2 on the waYit list, but yesterday I was 0/2. Check out my previous posts for other Sundance updates! I’ll try my hardest to keep updating… It’s so exhausting… ^.-

Our Man in Utah: Sundance Review: Shut Up and Play the Hits

2012-01-27T07:11:00.000-06:00

OUR MAN IN UTAH

Cinema Bebop's Gant Lee continues his Sundance Film Festival experience with a screening of "Shut Up and Play the Hits". Here's his review...

SHUT UP AND PLAY THE HITS

Part concert film and part interview/documentary, SHUT UP AND PLAY THE HITS chronicles the ending of a band called LCD Soundsystem. It’s not a sad story full of heartbreak and disaster, but a story about a group of people that were literally in control of their own destiny. At the top of his career, James Murphy decided to walk away from rockstar status and not overstay his welcome. Although the film offers an extraordinary portrait of one of the most self-aware artists of the last decade, the film’s inability to show you the full Chuck Klosterman interview or the full concert keeps it from feeling complete. It feels like a short documentary with a few music videos in between or a short concert film with the DVD extras playing throughout. Regardless, you’ll be happy with anything you can get.

Concert film- If you’re a fan of the band, then you’ll obviously love it. If you’re new to the band but have the slightest interest in hybrid rock, the band is easy to get into, especially given the band’s passionate live performances. I’d suggest Youtube-ing the band before you make a judgment on whether or not you want to see this film (if/when it’s available). But the film completely hinges on it. So if you’re not on board with the music you’re hearing, then it’s best that casual audiences stand aside. As far as the concert footage goes, it’s great. I haven’t seen an awful lot of concert DVDs or films, but this is by far in the higher rankings of what I’ve seen. The footage is pretty standard and isn’t really anything out of the ordinary (besides a few choice shots and angles from Spike Jonze). I would say that the film accurately portrayed the experience of the concert, but we only see about a quarter of the four hour event. The concert is full of emotion, no doubt, but I’m sure it was more grand and epic than the film ultimately made it out to be. All of the editing and filmic shortcomings aside, the band can play. I mean, they can play really well. The volume was high and the screen was big. If the only problem with this part is that it was too short, I’d say that’s a pretty good problem. Good films (documentaries, especially) capture a moment of time and immortalize it. Credit directors Will Lovelace and Dylan Southern. By the way, awesome thank you music using the theme for Twin Peaks. I nearly cried……. :P

Documentary/Interview- I’m a little biased here because I love Chuck Klosterman. If you asked me to pick one writer that has influenced me, it’s him. Seriously, this guy is awesome. Although Real-life Klosterman and Writing Klosterman are different, I still cherish hearing him. The guy can interview like crazy and write even better. So I was happy to learn that he was going to be interviewing James Murphy throughout the movie. But like the concert portion of the film, I knew that something was missing. Chuck Klosterman asked about 7 questions during the film. While they were good questions that garnered interesting responses, there wasn’t enough there to seem like a full interview had taken place. Also, there is no denying that a guy like James Murphy deserves to get the majority of the film dedicated to him, but it may have been cool to get a take on the ending of events from some of the other band members. They’re there and you get little bits and pieces from them, but it was never in an interview setting. The non-interview parts of the documentary segments were full of character and, despite there not being a large story told, were appreciated.

When it comes to reviewing a film, I immediately have to force myself to find something wrong with what I just watched because I can sometimes get caught up in how great the experience was, perfect or not. With this film, it was pretty hard. I highly recommend this film to fans of the band. I slightly recommend this to potential fans. I don’t really recommend this to people I don’t see as potential fans. THE FILM IS GREAT. It just feels like there are two films about this story that I want to see: the entire concert film and a more in-depth documentary. It’s hard to imagine the two seperately, so hopefully there can be a big Special Edition Blu-ray release or something that compiles all of the extra footage and interviews. There is only so much good that you can pack into a feature-length film, and they did the best they could. 8/10

Later!

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Our Man in Utah/Insiders React/First Stabs/Official Congrats

2012-01-26T07:30:00.000-06:00

Good Morning...here's some film stuff...

OUR MAN IN UTAH

Cinema Bebop's Gant Lee is on the ground at The Sundance Film Festival in Park City, UT (and vicinity). Here's his first post:

Day 1

I’ve made it to Park City and it is beautiful here! The snow is on the ground, people everywhere, and buzz buzz buzz.

The Surrogate and Beasts of the Southern Wild are the talk of the town. Both have been picked up for distribution already (the former for approximately $6 million) and have been the most highly recommended to me. Of course, all showings are sold out and the chances of me getting into either one of those films on my pass are slim. I’d have to be in the waitlist for a couple of hours. Even then… I dunno.

I flew in on Tuesday night and decided to catch one of the midnight screenings. I chose Wrong by Quentin Dupieux. The Frenchman was actually there to introduce his film and was very bashful. He warned us that his tale about a man who has lost his dog was slow, but I’ve seen slower films. Unfortunately, 7 people couldn’t stand it and left during the middle of the film. I can’t get mad at someone for leaving during a film they don’t like had it been at a multiplex. But this is Sundance, and the director was there. I thought it was completely rude for them to leave while the director sat at the back and watched them actively reject the film. Anyway, I don’t feel like full on reviewing the film considering I may have watched it with a tired eye after my long day of traveling. The film got a bunch of laughs from the audience, but not as much from me. There were some truly funny things in the film (like a meditation on the memories of dog poop), but I can’t say that I recommend this film to anyone. The humor is pointless and the story barely exists. I’m hesitant to embrace it positively; it’s somewhere in between average and good. It may get picked up by Magnet like Dupieux’s previous film Rubber (a film about a tire with the ability to kill people). 6/10

This morning, I treated myself to a documentary called Indie Game: The Movie. In a world dominated by Call of Duty and Madden, it’s encouraging to see independent developers making video games. These games are born out of love for gaming, not a love for money. Like many artists, these developers have a passion for their medium and sacrifice a lot to achieve their goals, something that the documentary captures very well. We follow the journey of two games in development dealing with the struggles of working independently. There are tears and a lot of laughs. While it was encouraging to see these ordinary, hard-working guys risk and succeed, we didn’t get a portrait of what the story is for most independent developers, to risk and fail. I understand that it would have made the film a little less happy, but I felt like we didn’t get the whole story on the world of independent game development. Nevertheless, it was fun learning the stories behind the games Super Meat Boy and Braid, two games I’m a little more proud to own now. 7.5/10

My mom joined me for a screening for Rodrigo Cortés’ newest effort, Red Lights. I know that it got picked up early on at the festival, so I wanted to see what Millennium Entertainment saw in it. My only explanation has to be star-power… What started off promising quickly turned to, well, crap… I’m always critical of a film that has one person filling the roles of director, writer, producer, and editor. The film is (virtually) in his hands and if it’s crap, it’s all his fault. But with this film, I had more of a diverse opinion of Cortés. His writing ruined this film. Cillian Murphy and Sigourney Weaver are a team out to disprove the existence of paranormal forces and activities. But, the return of a famous mentalist played by Robert De Niro spells trouble for the duo. My mother and I were happy to see a film approach this material from a skeptical point of view, a rarity among movies concerning the paranormal. But halfway through, the film took a bad turn and ruined a potentially good story.

From a directorial standpoint, Cortés did well technically. The editing was good. The lighting was good. The pacing was good when we cared about the story. All in all, Cortés showed some potential as a director, but the script turns this good movie into a less than average one. 4.5/10

In about 30 minutes or so, I’m heading to a midnight screening of SHUT UP AND PLAY THE HITS.

See you tomorrow!

Check his blog at: http://cinemabebop.tumblr.com/

Rope of Silicon was up with a post last night outlining the hubub of Sundance to date. Take a look:
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/2012-sundance-film-festival-acquisitions-buzzed-titles/

Personally, if I get a chance to lobby any of the Telluride programmers; I may urge them to try to get "The Surrogate" much as they did "An Education" a few years back.

INSIDERS REACT

From my extensive (OK about half a dozen) contacts in the film biz, here's some reaction to the Oscar nominations announced 48 hours ago:

Almost universal amazement that "Extremely Loud" got a Best Picture nomination. My buds were using words like "obnoxious" and "lame". But, you know, somewhere around 250 or so voters must have thought it was the year's best film. I saw one blogger opine that its inclusion confirmed the power of producer Scott Rudin or the connections of Stephen Daldry.

A good deal of dismay about having only two songs nominated...and neither of them were particulrly songs that anyone thought would.

Also some expressions of dismay about the animated films nominated save for "Rango".

And, as you might expect, there is a significant corner of dismay concerning no nomination for Fincher as director or "dragon Tattoo" for BP, at least among the people I know in side the film industry.

More reaction in my next post...

FIRST STABS

Meanwhile, The Gurus of Gold over at Movie City News have there first prediction of Oscar winners for the new crop...Look at it here:

http://moviecitynews.com/2012/01/gurus-o-gold-1st-ranking-of-oscar-nominees-in-all-categories-pt-1-of-2/

They're seeing a pretty good race for Director and Actress and a semi-close race in Adapted Screenplay. The other five (of the Big 8) categories seem to have prohibitive favorites at this point.

OFFICIAL CONGRATS

The Telluride Film Festival web site's official congratulatory post to Oscar nominees from TFF#38:

http://telluridefilmfestival.org/news/2012-01?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+telluridefilmfestival%2Fnews+%28Telluride+Film+Festival+News%29#item-54

OSCAR JOINING THE 21ST CENTURY?

Word that The Academy is headed to the use of online voting in 2013. Here's the story from The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/academy-electronic-voting-oscars-284893

More tomorrow.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Insiders and Sundance

2012-01-25T07:35:00.001-06:00

Coming tomorrow...reaction from my insider sources to yesterday's Oscar nominations.

Also, our man at Sundance is on the ground in Utah. Awaiting his dispatches. Hot Sundnace news is that Fox Searchlight has picked up buzzy titles "Beasts of the Southern Wild" and "The Surrogate". Reprotedly FS wants to position "Surrogate" for awards consideration at the end of this year.

More tomorrow.

Folow me on Twitter @Gort2

OSCAR TIME

2012-01-24T12:20:00.001-06:00

Here is the complete list of nominated films from this morning's Academy announcement:

Best picture

“War Horse”

“The Artist”

“Midnight in Paris”

“Moneyball”

“The Descendants”

“The Tree of Life”

“The Help”

“Hugo”

“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”

Best supporting actress:

Berenice Bejo, “The Artist”

Jessica Chastain, “The Help”

Melissa McCarthy, “Bridesmaids”

Janet McTeer, “Albert Nobbs”

Octavia Spencer, “The Help”

Best supporting actor

Kenneth Branagh, “My Week With Marilyn”

Jonah Hill, “Moneyball”

Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”

Nick Nolte, “Warrior”

Max von Sydow, “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”

Best actress

Glenn Close, “Albert Nobbs”

Viola Davis, “The Help”

Rooney Mara, “Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”

Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”

Michelle Williams, “My Week With Marilyn”

Best actor

Demian Bachir, “A Better Life”

George Clooney, “The Descendants”

Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”

Gary Oldman, “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”

Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”

Best director

Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”

Alexander Payne, “The Descendants”

Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”

Terrence Malick, “Tree of Life”

Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”

Best original screenplay

“The Artist”

“Bridesmaids”

“Margin Call”

“Midnight in Paris”

“A Separation”

Best adapted screenplay

“The Descendants”

“Hugo”

“The Ides of March”

“Moneyball”

“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”

Best foreign language film

“Bullhead”

“Footnote”

“In Darkness”

“Monsieur Lazhar”

“A Separation”

Best animated feature

“A Cat in Paris”

“Chico & Rita”

“Kung Fu Panda 2”

“Puss in Boots”

“Rango”

Best animated short film

“Dimanche/Sunday”

“The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore”

“La Luna”

“A Morning Stroll”

“Wild Life”

Best live action short film

“Pentecost”

“Raju”

“The Shore”

“Time Freak”

“Tuba Atlantic”

Best art direction

“The Artist”

“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2”

“Hugo”

“Midnight in Paris”

“War Horse”

Best cinematography

“The Artist”

“The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”

“Hugo”

“The Tree of Life”

“War Horse”

Best costumes

“Anonymous”

“The Artist”

“Hugo”

“Jane Eyre”

“W.E.”

Best documentary feature

“Hell and Back Again”

“If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Libration Front”

“Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory”

“Pina”

“Undefeated”

Documentary short subject

“The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement”

“God is the Bigger Elvis”

“Incident in New Baghdad”

“Saving Face”

“The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom”

Film editing

“The Artist”

“The Descendants”

“The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”

“Hugo”

“Moneyball”

Make-up

“Albert Nobbs”

“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2”

“The Iron Lady”

Original score

“The Adventures of TinTin”

“The Artist”

“Hugo”

“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy:

“War Horse”

Original song

“Man or Muppet”

“Real in Rio”

Sound editing

“Drive”

“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

“Hugo”

“Transformers: Dark of the Moon”

“War Horse”

Visual effects

“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2”

“Hugo”

“Real Steel”

“Rise of the Planet of the Apes”

“Transformers: Dark of the Moon”

Sound Mixing:

Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

Moneyball

Transformers

War Horse

AND HERE IS MY 2 CENTS AS OF NOON TODAY:
Comment: A quick rundown shows 25 Telluride-centric nominations but I haven’t looked at the “short” categories yet (except to note the nomination of La Luna”)

The FAC metric goes 71 of 104 (about 68%)…so there ARE some surprises…some gratifying, some mystifying… by category:

BEST PICTURE: What was more surprising? That there were 9 films nominated, that Extremely Loud was one of them, that War Horse managed to stay on the list, that Dragon Tattoo didn’t make it? That Tree of Life DID? The FAC was 7 of 9 here. I feel pretty smart about Tree of Life making the cut.

BEST DIRECTOR: The FAC metric goes 4 of 5 here. I correctly assert Malick for Spielberg.

BEST ACTRESS: FAC goes 4 of 5. Mara in and Tilda Swinton out…not really a huge surprise.

BEST ACTOR: FAC 3 of 5…NO FASSBENDER!!! There IS NO JUSTICE!!! Fassbender’s demise as well as DiCaprio’s decline allow Oldman and Bichir in the game.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: FAC goes 4 of 5. Misses on Woodley. But glad to see the McTeer nomination.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: FAC is 4 of 5. The stunner was the exclusion of Albert Brooks who had been widely regarded as the only other lock in the category in addition to Plummer. Nope. Happy for Max Von Sydow.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: FAC goes 3 of 5. Missed Tinker Tailor (had it as a possible)…and Ides of March. Not all that surprised that War Horse wasn’t here. I am kind of surprised that The Help was left off.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: FAC 3 of 5. Misses Margin Call and A Separation..BUT SO PLEASED THAT FARHADI GETS A NOMINATION! Occupy!!!

BEST FOREIGN: FAC goes 4 of 5. Missed on Bullhead instead of PIna. Again, very pleased for A Separation

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: FAC goes 3 of 5. Missed BIG TIME on Chico and Rita and A Cat in Paris…what???

BEST ART DIRECTION: FAC goes 4 of 5. Missed Midnight in Paris.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: FAC goes 5 of 5. THE ONLY CATEGORY THE FAC WENT 100%...Makes me think I waste too much time trying to figure this out.

BEST COSTUMES: FAC goes 3 of 5 but both Anonymous and W.E.

BEST DOCUMENTARY: FAC is awful 2 of 5. Got Paradise Lost and Pina.

BEST FILM EDITING: FAC goes 4 of 5. Missed The Descendants…and here’s a note…This nomination probably keeps The Descendants in the Best Pic conversation. As we have said a number of occasions, an editing nomination almost seems to be a prerequisite to winning Best Pic. Kudos to the Fox Searchlight folks.

BEST MAKEUP: FAC is 2 of 3…missed Potter (which I listed as a possible).

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: FAC was 3 of 5. Had Tintin as a possible.

BEST SONG: Only two nominations here…and I missed them both. Although, I did have Man or Muppet listed as a possible.

SOUND EDITING: 3 of 5

SOUND MIXING: 2 of 5

VISUAL EFFECTS: 4 of 5

In the “random facts to assuage my feelings about how many I missed” dept. I had 16 actual nominees listed as “possibilities”.

JUBILATION: For “A Separation’s” screenplay nod and gratified that Tree of Life and Malick were nominated.

TRAVESTY: No nomination for Michael Fassbender.

#OCCUPY success: McTeer, Farhadi (Separation).

More later, talk amongst yourselves…

THE DAY BEFORE AND HERE ARE THE PREDICTIONS! Plus some other folks and news.

2012-01-23T07:31:00.000-06:00

In 24 hours we will know the Oscar nominees in 24 categories and all the speculation and thrashing about that we've been doing for the last 5 months gets focused for the 4 and 1/2 week run to Oscar night on Feb. 26.

Here's what The Film Awards Clearinghouse metric says will happen tomorrow morning (and here and there a comment or two from yours truly). Metrics data from: Awards Daily, Incontention, Thompson on Hollywood, Rope of Silicon, Awards Circuit, Entertainment Weekly, The Hollywood Reporter, Film Misery, The Film Experience and Hollywood Elsewhere.

As far as The Best short Documentary, Live action and Animation…not even going to try. I do hope for nominations for La Luna and Luminaris.

SOUND MIXING: War Horse, Transformers, Tintin, Super 8, Apes. Also with a good shot: Hugo.

SOUND EDITING: War Horse, Apes, Tintin, Transformers, Hugo. Maybe Super 8 or Rango.

VISUAL EFFECTS: Apes, Potter, Hugo, Tree of Life, Hugo, Transformers. Also a decent shot for Capt. America, X Men, Super 8, Pirates 4 or Mission Impossible.

ORIGINAL SCORE: The Artist, Hugo, War Horse, Dragon Tattoo, Extremely Loud. Also in play: Tintin, Moneyball and The Help.

ORIGINAL SONG: The Help, Albert Nobbs, The Muppets (Life is a Happy Song), The Muppets (Pictures in My Head), Capt. America. Also with a decent shot: Gnomeo and Juliet, W.E., Machine Gun Preacher and The Muppets (Man or Muppet).

MAKEUP: The Iron Lady, Albert Nobbs, The Artist. Also: Gainesborg, Potter, Hugo

COSTUME: Hugo, The Artist, Jane Eyre, Marilyn, The Help. Also: Anonymous and W.E.

ART DIRECTION: Hugo, Artist, Potter, Tinker, War Horse. Maybe: Dragon Tattoo, Anonymous, The Help, Tree of Life.

CINEMATOGRAPHY: Tree of Life, Hugo, War Horse, Artist, Dragon Tattoo. Maybe: Drive, Potter, Tinker.

FILM EDITING: Artist, War Horse, Hugo, Dragon Tattoo, Moneyball. Maybe: Drive, Descendants, Tree of Life

ANIMATED FEATURE: Rango, Puss in Boots, Tintin, Arthur Christmas, Kung Fu Panda 2. Possibles: Cars 2, Rio.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Project Nim, Paradise Lost 3, Buck, We Were Here, Pina. Also possible: If a Tree Falls, Bill Cunningham.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: A Separation, In Darkness, Footnote, Pina, Monsieur Lazhar. Any others…Bullhead, Superclassico, Omar Killed Me, Warriors of the Rainbow.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Midnight in Paris, The Artist, Bridesmaids, 50/50, Win Win. Possibles: Young Adult, A Separation, Tree of Life

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Descendants, Moneyball, Hugo, The Help, War Horse. [Note: I’ll bet War Horse is even in trouble in this category]. Others that could sneak in: Dragon Tattoo, Tinker, Ides of March

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christopher Plummer/Beginners, Albert Brooks/Drive, Kenneth Brannagh/My Week with Marilyn, Jonah Hill/Moneyball and Nick Nolte/Warrior. Could be: Max Von Sydow/Extremely Loud, Patton Oswalt/Young Adult and there appears to be a late surge for Ben Kingsley in Hugo.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Octavia Spencer and Jessica Chastain both from The Help, Berenice Bejo/Artist, Melissa McCarthy/Bridesmaids and Shailene Woodley/Descendants. [Note: I actually think that this category is pretty tight. I also really have a difficult time believing the Academy will actually nominate McCarthy] Others; Janet McTeer/Albert Nobbs, Vanessa Redgrave/Coriolanus and Carey Mulligan/Shame.

ACTOR: George Clooney/Descendants, Jean Dujardin/Artist, Brad Pitt/Moneyball, Michael Fassbender/Shame, Leonardo DiCaprio/J. Edgar. [Note: I flat out think that DiCaprio has faded completely and that opens the door for… Gary Oldman/Tinker or maybe Michael Shannon/Take Shelter or Demian Bichir/A Better Life]

ACTRESS: Viola Davis/The Help, Meryl Streep/Iron Lady, Michelle Williams/Marilyn, Tilda Swinton/We Need to Talk About Kevin, Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs. Could sneak in: Rooney Mara/Dragon Tattoo or Charlize Theron/Young Adult.

DIRECTOR: Michel Hazanavicius/Artist, Alexander Payne/Descendants, Martin Scorsese/Hugo, Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris, Steven Spielberg/War Horse. Again, I think the bloom is off the rose for Spielberg and this fifth spot will go either to David Fincher/Dragon Tattoo Terrence Malick/Tree of Life.

PICTURE: So much depends on whether there are 5 or 6 or 7 or 8…I’m going with seven and the metric says: The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, The Help, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball and War Horse. And I will flaunt the metric and say War Horse does NOT get in and either Dragon Tattoo or Tree of Life does.

I still feel that the new rules favor a surprise BP nomination for Tree of Life tomorrow morning. Those that love it, love it and it needs to get past that 250-300 first place vote threshold (out of nearly 6,000) to get a nomination...I think it's doable.

Now bring on tomorrow morning’s announcement so we can start parsing the results and complaining! I've got experts and industry insiders who tell me that they'll share their reactions and insights into tomorrow's announcement. Lined up: a screenwriter, a director, a producer, an editor, a PR guy and a couple of film bloggers

OTHERS LAST SHOTS:

Final pre-Oscar predictions from Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-academy-award-nominations-hugo-artist-dragon-tattoo-283762

And also from Sasha Stone at Awards Daily:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2012/01/2011predictions/

Greg Ellwood at HitFix.com:
http://www.hitfix.com/galleries/2012-oscar-nominations-predictions#1

Guy Lodge at Incontention.com:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/guy-lodge-predicts
THE ARTIST WINS PRODUCERS GUILD AWARD

The Artist continues to pile up the pew-Oscar awards winning the PGA award as Best FIlm on Saturday night. Find the complete story at Hollywoodnews.Com:
http://www.hollywoodnews.com/2012/01/22/oscars-the-artist-takes-top-producers-guild-prize-analysis-awards-alley/

SUNDANCE UNDER WAY

And as promised MTFB/FAC has a man in transit. Gant Lee will be on the ground in Park City this week and our plan is to post his Sundance coverage and impressions here...Check Gant's film blog CinemaBebop here:
http://cinemabebop.tumblr.com/post/16271538547/coming-up

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Sunday Extra to The FAC

2012-01-22T09:38:00.000-06:00

Good Morning...down to under 48 hours until Oscar nominations are announced by The Academy.

CEASE THAT CORONATION!

This morning I have two pieces that suggest that there is still a reasonable level of suspense about what will ultimately win the Oscar next month (Feb. 26) for Best Picture.

First from The Playlist's Oli Lyttleton: 5 Reasons The Artist might not win best picture (in fairness, he strains to get to 5):
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-amazing-race-its-not-over-yet-five-reasons-the-artist-might-not-win-best-picture

And also from Sasha Stone at Awards Daily a rumination on the possibility that The Descendants could pull off the upset:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2012/01/the-descendants-poised-to-upset-in-best-picture/

MY TOP TEN FOR 2011

Well, after much weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth, here is my Top Ten list for the films that I saw in 2012 (somewhere north of 50...not "critic" type numbers...but a lot of films)...But admittedly, I haven't seen everything. Haven't caught War Horse or Extremely Loud yet. Nor critical darlings like Melancholia, Take Shelter or Martha Marcy Mae Marlene. Someday, I'll get 'em in.

#10 HUGO (dir. by Martin Scorsese)... Scorsese steps into a completely different filmic milieu and succeeds very well. It's a beautiful film to look at. The 3D isn't a bother (as it so often is in most 3D films) and sounds one of the biggest themes from serious films this year...the nostalgic reverence for the history of film and its place in our lives. (my runner -up #11 picture...Girl with the Dragon Tattoo).
Hugo's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0970179/

#9 ALBERT NOBBS (dir. by Rodrigo Garcia) Glenn Close's passion project that took decades to get made was largely dismissed by most critics, but I contend that her performance as a woman masquerading as a mild mannered MAN and Janet McTeer's supporting performance are enough to put it on my list. I think that a number of critics just didn't get how difficult it is to do what Close does in this film. Probably headed to 3-4 Oscar nominations.
Albert Nobbs' IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1602098/
Check out my actually published Albert Nobbs review from Telluirde for The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/telluride_11_review_albert_nobbs_glenn_close_mia_wasikowska

#8 RANGO (dir. Gore Verbinski) I'm also a bit surprised that this hasn't gotten more critical love at the end of the year. It also hasn't benefited from what has been a yearly "Will The Academy nominate an animated film for Best Picture?" push. This despite the fact that it is a clear front runner to win the Oscar for Animated Feature. Nonetheless, it's funny, quirky, and inventive.
Rango's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1192628/

#7 BEGINNERS (dir. Mike Mills) Christopher Plummer is headed to an Oscar nomination (and probable win) as Supporting Actor as a widower who finally comes out in his 70's and Ewan MacGregor plays the son dealing with the new circumstances. It's a beautiful, touching funny and very human film from Mills. It would be nice to see him get an Original Screenplay nomination as well and it could happen; it's not very likely, though.
Beginners' IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1532503/

#6 MONEYBALL (dir. Bennett Miller) A top flight job from all involved. Steve Zallian and Aaron Sorkin's adaptation is brilliantly done. Miller directs with confidence (I am fast getting to the point where I'll go see a film just because he's the director) and Brad Pitt is more than fine as Billy Beane. And the surprise is how good Jonah Hill is. Probable Oscar nods to Zallian, Sorkin, Pitt and Hill. Miller's odds for a directing nomination are fairly long, though.
Moneyball's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1210166/

#5 A SEPARATION (dir. Asghar Farhadi) A miracle of a film from Iran. I contend that this is the best written film of any type this year. Almost certain to be a Best Foreign Language Film nominee (and the likely winner), I've been advocating n Original Screenplay nomination for months...not likely, but it's also not impossible. And here's the thing...it's Iranian...I saw it with subtitles and it still translated to great writing...do you have any idea how difficult that is? Steady direction and great committed performances also. Talk about your films that transcend boundaries...
A Separation's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1832382/

#4 THE DESCENDANTS (dir. Alexander Payne) A nice return from Mr. Payne who had been away from directing for 7 years. George Clooney stars as a man with family issues. He's probably going to win his second Oscar for this and perhaps he should, it's one of his best turns on screen. Good support up and down the cast as well with relative newcomer Shailene Woodley a very possible nominee for Supporting Actress. This will probably net 4-7 nominations Tuesday morning. Check my Playlist review from Telluride for further details here: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/alexander_payne_george_clooney_riff_on_family_love_loss_death_and_the_choic#
The Descendants IMDb page is here: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1033575/

#3 THE TREE OF LIFE (dir.Terrence Malick) No one tried anything bigger, bolder and more adventurous this year than Terrence Malick. So many people have said, "what's it about?"...best answer "Life" sort as the title implies. Malick juxtaposes macro and micro versions of "life" with each illuminating the other. Brad Pitt is very good as a domineering 50's era father. it also helps that the film is incredibly beautifully shot and that Malick (clearly drawing from his own experiences as a young boy in Texas and Oklahoma) gets the look and tone of the place and time of the micro story just right. This film and my #1 are the two films that I saw this year that kept returning to me mind to turn over again and again.
The Tree of Life's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0478304/

#2 THE ARTIST (dir. Michel Hazanavicius) I was intrigued from the moment I heard the premise and started to hear the reactions and descriptions out of Cannes. Firstly, how bold do you have to be to pitch a black and white silent film in the 2000's??? Pretty bold. And then the execution! And it works so so well. Hazanavicius' vision is beautifully realized especially from Jean Dujardin in the lead. To my mind, 75 years removed from the days when this was the ONLY way films were done, this was like re-inventing the form from scratch. Remarkably well done. The Artist will likely be in double digit nominations (and it may be the only film to get there this year, though Hugo has a real chance as well) on Tuesday morning and deservedly so.
The Artist's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1655442/

#1 SHAME (dir. Steve McQueen). Yeah, I know. It's NC-17. And a lot of people do NOT like it, love it, care for it. Many actively hate it. It was certainly not universally embraced at Telluride. But, I'm telling you, this film stuck with me all fall. Shattering, searing, unflinching. And the performances from Michael Fassbender and Carey Mulligan are phenomenal. Fassy will probably get the only nomination here and he'd be winning the Best Actor Oscar if I had a ballot. Mulligan would also be at the top of my Supporting Actress ballot, but she appears to have only a marginal chance of being one of the five nominees on Tuesday. I'd also include McQueen and Abi Morgan for screenplay. Perhaps McQueen for direction and likely cinematography as well.
Shame's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1723811/

What are your Ten Best of 2011??

Coming tomorrow...Michael's Telluride Film Blog and The Film Award Clearinghouse predicts the Oscar nominations!

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Saturday Extra to The FAC

2012-01-21T08:25:00.001-06:00

We're less than 72 hours away from Oscar nomination morning. Very exciting. In this morning's brief post I have a look at a couple of Oscar prognosticators that have not been included in The FAC group, just we can throw a little something new and maybe some spice into the mix. And also a piece from Steve Pond at The Wrap suggesting that the conventional wisdom that 7 or 8 films would make it into the Best Picture race come Tuesday morning may not be the case.

OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM NEW PLACES

First a link to Mark Harris/Grantland:
http://www.grantland.com/contributor/_/name/mark-harris

And also the final Oscar predictions from our frequently cited friends at The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-amazing-race-at-long-last-our-final-oscar-nomination-predictions

HOLD ON FOLKS....

Most Oscar handicappers have been pretty confident since the Academy's announcement of new voting/counting procedures that in this first year where there could be 5 to 10 nominees that there would likely be 7 or 8. Now The Wrap's Steve Pond says, "Not so fast, muchacho!" Pond, who may this stuff better than the Academy's accounting firm says that it might not come out that way at all. Maybe ONLY 6 nominees...Check his post at The Wrap here:
http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/7-or-8-best-picture-nominees-maybe-not-34559?page=0,1

THE NEXT THREE DAYS

Here's my blog plan for the next three days leading up to and past the Oscar announcements on Tuesday morning.

Tomorrow (Sunday)...A brief post with a pair of articles that challenge the conventional wisdom that The Artist has the Best Picture race sown up...really.

Also, my top ten films of 2011...I know you're breathless in anticipation.

Monday: Oscar predictions using the 10 predictors that I have been collating since Telluride ended in September.

Tuesday (evening): All the nominations and parsing them...surprises of inclusion and exclusion, joy and rage! I'll also have the Telluride breakdown of this year's nominees

Then in Thursday's regular post I hope to have reaction from the handful of Academy members and industry insiders I know. It should be fun!

Follow me @Gort2

Brief Extra to MTFB/FAC

2012-01-20T07:27:00.001-06:00

The Film Awards Clearinghouse will be up on Monday morning with a complete final rundown of Oscar nominee probabilities 24 hours before their announcement on Tuesday morning (Jan. 24).

Here are three quick hits to Telluride #38 related Oscar potentials:

A SEPARATION

Anne Thompson interviews writer/director Asghar Farhadi:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/farhadi-talks-iranian-oscar-entry-a-separation-divorce-drama-questions-irans-future#

SHAME

NPR talks to Michael Fassbender:
http://www.npr.org/2012/01/18/145390854/michael-fassbender-portraying-an-addicts-shame

INTO THE ABYSS

The Playlist talks to Werner Herzog:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/werner-herzogs-doc-into-the-abyss-spawns-discovery-series-on-death-row

I'll brief posts also on Saturday and Sunday leading up to Monday's regular bi-weekly post and Oscar nomination predictions.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Closing in on Oscar

2012-01-19T07:35:00.000-06:00

CLOSING IN ON OSCAR

We're down to the point where we could start counting down to next Tuesday's nomination announcement in hours rather than days. The last 24 hours have seen a couple of key developments. First, the announcement from The Academy yesterday of the nine foreign films still left to compete for the five nominations in that category and ultimately the Oscar. Any number of the websites listed in the right hand column carried stories about that announcement. I have linked to the Awards Daily story here:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2012/01/9-foreign-language-films-vie-for-oscar/

Four Telluride films have made the "semi-finals" A Separation, Pina, In Darkness and Footnote. Not making the list, in something of a surprise, Le Havre. So the dream of an all Telluride list of five films has ended, though the four that are left are all pretty legitimate players to be announced on Tuesday morning. As a matter of fact, my final prediction on Monday will be the four T-ride films plus Canada's Monsieur Lazhar.

The other developing story is a slight rumbling/backlash against The Artist because, the thinking goes, general audiences may not be as enamored of the uniqueness of a black and white silent film in 2012. we'll see pretty soon if the theory has any legs.

OSCAR PREDICTIONS

The latest Oscar prognostications from three really good sources:

Movie City News' latest Gurus of Gold chart:
http://moviecitynews.com/2012/01/gurus-o-gold-post-globespre-oscar-nominations/

Dave Karger's "Final" pre-Oscar nomination predictions:
http://insidemovies.ew.com/2012/01/17/oscar-predictions-dave-karger/

And the latest update from The Hollywood Reporter's resident Oscar guru Scott Feinberg:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/golden-globes-oscar-nominees-scott-feinberg-awards-season-279829

Of course, The Film Awards Clearinghouse will be up on Monday morning with my look at where the nominations will go and where we might see some surprises (War Horse fading, Tattoo on the rise...)

FASSBENDER ON PARADE

Michael Fassbender has been and continues to be red hot and I am modestly confident that he will hear his name next Tuesday morning when the Best Actor nominees are announced. He's featured this week on the cover of The Hollywood Reporter and THR has a couple of online articles in conjunction with that. You can find those here:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/michael-fassbender-shirtless-full-frontal-nudity-shame-x-men-george-clooney-282871

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/THR-cover-michael-fassbender-shame-nudity-dangerous-method-282859

AND FINALLY

Two fun and interesting spec pieces about some of the far fetched things that could (but probably won't) happen on Tuesday morning.

From Kris Tapley of Incontention:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/off-the-carpet-as-the-music-stops-fringe-hopefuls-cross-their-fingers

And also from Steve Pond at The Wrap
http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/10-oscar-shocks-could-probably-wont-happen-34362

I'll have some other tidbits for you tomorrow.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

BAFTA/Feinberg Forecast Update/Oscar Effects Categories

2012-01-18T07:16:00.000-06:00

BRITS NOMINATE

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their nominees early Monday morning (Central Daylight Time). Here they are with Telluride highlighted as usual (thanks to Dave Karger and entertainment Weekly).

Best Film
The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
The Help
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Film Not in the English Language
Incendies (tff 37)
Pina
Potiche
A Separation
The Skin I Live In

Outstanding British Film
My Week with Marilyn
Senna
Shame
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
We Need to Talk About Kevin

Director
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Tomas Alfredson, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Lynne Ramsay, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Leading Actor
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame

Leading Actress
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Viola Davis, The Help

Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Ides of March

Supporting Actress
Carey Mulligan, Drive
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Judi Dench, My Week with Marilyn
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer, The Help

Original Screenplay
The Artist
Bridesmaids
The Guard
The Iron Lady
Midnight in Paris

Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
The Help
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Editing
The Artist
Drive
Hugo
Senna
Tinker Tailor Solider Spy

Production Design
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Make Up & Hair
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
Hugo
The Iron Lady
My Week with Marilyn

Costume Design
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
My Week with Marilyn
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Special Visual Effects
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
War Horse

Documentary
George Harrison: Living in the Material World
Project Nim
Senna

Sound
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Original Music
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Animated Film
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
Arthur Christmas
Rango

Outstanding British Debut by a Director or Producer
Joe Cornish, Attack the Block
Will Sharpe, Tom Kingsley, Sarah Brocklehurst, Black Pond
Ralph Fiennes, Coriolanus
Richard Ayouade, Submarine
Paddy Considine & Diarmid Scrimshaw, Tyrannosaur

Comment: BAFTA ends up citing Telluride-centric films 24 times:

The Artist- 12

The Descendants- 3

We Need to Talk About Kevin- 3

Shame- 2

George Harrison, Incendies, Pina and A Separation – 1 each

BAFTA is interesting from Oscar’s perspective because there is a modestly significant overlap of membership between it and The Academy.

FEINBERG’S NEW FORECAST

Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter has his latest assessment of Oscar prospects up and it reflects his view in a post Golden Globes environment. Biggest change…he has Ben Kingsley solidly in the Best Supporting Actor category for Hugo. Check it here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/golden-globes-oscar-nominees-scott-feinberg-awards-season-279829

THE FAC AND SOUND AND VISUAL EFFECTS

Three very technical categories and where they stand according to a compilation of data from: Awards Daily, Incontention, The Hollywood Reporter, Film Misery, Film Experience,

Awards Circuit, and Rope of Silicon…

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Rise of the Planet of the Apes

2) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows

3) Hugo

4) The Tree of Life

5) Transformers

Also in play:

6) Pirates 4

7) Captain America

8) X-Men First Class

9) Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol

10) Super 8

Others: Real Steal, Thor, Cowboys and Aliens

SOUND EDITING

1) War Horse

2) Rise of the Planet of the Apes

3) Tintin

4) Transformers

5) Hugo

Also in play:

6) Super 8

7) Rango

8) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows

9) Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

10) Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol

SOUND MIXING

1) War Horse

2) Transformers

3) Tintin

4) Super 8

5) Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Also in play:

6) Hugo

7) Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol

8) Rango

9) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows

10) Captain America

Check back tomorrow.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Oscar Breakdown/#OccupyOscar!/Editors' Speak/Wim Speaks/Oscar Surprises

2012-01-17T07:31:00.000-06:00

OSCAR PREDICTION BREAKDOWN.

If the nominations were announced this morning and The FAC was 100% accurate, the nomination totals for feature films would look like this:

The Artist 11

Hugo 10

War Horse 9 (but I think that’s on the high side)

The Help 7

The Descendants 5

Moneyball 5

With three nominations each: Midnight in Paris, The Tree of Life, My Week with Marilyn, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (I’ll bet it has more than three), Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Albert Nobbs, The Adventures of Tintin and Transformers.

With two apiece: The Iron Lady, Bridesmaids, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, and The Muppets.

Single nominations for: J. Edgar, Beginners, Drive, Warrior, Win Win, 50/50, Tinker Tailor, Extremely Loud, Super 8 and Jane Eyre.

#OCCUPY OSCAR

How are my #occupyoscar projects faring a week away from nominations???

Michael Fassbender for Best Actor in Shame…looks reasonably likely.

Carey Mulligan for Best Supporting Actress in Shame…her chances exist but are slim.

Janet McTeer for Best Supporting Actress in Albert Nobbs…she has a decent shot.

Ezra Miller for Best Supporting Actor for We Need to Talk About Kevin…not happening.

Corey Stoll for Best Supporting Actor for Midnight in Paris…also not happening.

Asghar Farhadi for Best Original Screenplay for A Separation…it could happen, but it’s a stretch.

Mike Mills for Best Original Screenplay for Beginners…slim chance, very slim.

EDITORS SPEAK

The American Cinema Editors announced their nominees for excellence this year and they are (according to Awards Daily):

NOMINEES FOR 62nd ANNUAL ACE EDDIE AWARDS

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC):

The Descendants
Kevin Tent, A.C.E.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Angus Wall, A.C.E. & Kirk Baxter, A.C.E.

Hugo
Thelma Schoonmaker, A.C.E.

Moneyball
Christopher Tellefsen, A.C.E.

War Horse
Michael Kahn, A.C.E.

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (COMEDY OR MUSICAL):

The Artist
Anne-Sophie Bion & Michel Hazanavicius

Bridesmaids
William Kerr & Michael L. Sale

Midnight in Paris
Alisa Lepselter

My Week with Marilyn
Adam Recht

Young Adult
Dana E. Glauberman, A.C.E.

BEST EDITED ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:

The Adventures of Tintin
Michael Kahn, A.C.E.

Puss in Boots
Eric Dapkewicz

Rango
Craig Wood, A.C.E.

This actually probably aids The Descendants in its uphill struggle to win Best Picture from The Artist. It probably hurts the chances of The Help. Our FAC metric for Editing Oscar looked like this prior to the A.C.E. announcement:

EDITING

1) The Artist

2) War Horse

3) Hugo

4) Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

5) Moneyball

Also in play:

6) Drive

7) The Descendants

8) Extremely Loud

9) The Tree of Life

10) The Ides of March

Other possibles: The Help, Tinker Tailor, J. Edgar, Contagion, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Midnight in Paris, Warrior

WIM SPEAKS

A Guy Lodge interview with director Wim Wenders on the possible double Oscar nominee “Pina” here:

http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/interview-wim-wenders-on-overcoming-loss-and-meeting-3d-in-pina

OSCAR SURPRISES???

Steve Pond at The Wrap wrote an interesting “what if” post last Friday (the day Oscar nomination ballots were due) about weird things that could happen. Take a look; it’s kind of entertaining:

http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/10-oscar-shocks-could-probably-wont-happen-34362?page=0,3

2012-01-16T07:26:00.000-06:00

Good Morning America, How Are You? (Thanks, Arlo!)

WHERE WE STAND:

Oscar nominations will be announced one week from tomorrow and if The Clearinghouse metric is correct, the following statements would be true…

There would be 7 or 8 Best Picture nominees and they would be (in order of likelihood): The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, War Horse, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball and maybe The Tree of Life.

War Horse has been weakened and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Ides of March and Bridesmaids have all improved.

Among Telluride #38 films, the metric suggests that:

The Artist will have 11 nominations; more than any other picture and maybe the ONLY film with double digit Oscar nominations this year (though it appears increasingly likely that Hugo will have 10): Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Director, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costumes, Original Score and Makeup.

The Descendants will have five nominations with an outside shot at two others. Nominations for: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Director and Adapted Screenplay. Possibles for Editing and Cinematography.

Surprisingly, the next most potentially nominated TFF #38 film may be Albert Nobbs. I liked it a lot (you can read my review for The Playlist from T-ride here: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/telluride_11_review_albert_nobbs_glenn_close_mia_wasikowska ), but many critics were not bowled over by it. Nevertheless, as it stands this morning, my analysis suggests three nominations for Actress, Song and Makeup with a strong possibility for an additional nomination for Supporting Actress.

Pina looks to be dual nominated as Best Foreign Language Film and Best Documentary.

Shame and A Separation each look to get a single nomination and a possible second nod as well. For Shame, Fassbender looks pretty solid for Best Actor and Carey Mulligan has an outside shot at a Supporting Actress nod. For A Separation, a virtual certain nomination as Best Foreign Language Film and a possible Original Screenplay nom.

Single nominations are likely for We Need to Talk About Kevin (Swinton/Actress) and In Darkness and Le Havre, both for Foreign Language Film.

Films with outside shots but NOT expected to be nominated are A Dangerous Method in Best Supporting Actor and Art Direction and Footnote as Best Foreign Language Film.

All told, as of this morning, The FAC says 26 nominations for Telluride 2011 with another 8 possibilities and that does not include any of the “short” categories: Live Short, Animated Short and Documentary Short where T-ride will almost certainly add a couple of additional nominations.

For a festival that has seemed likely to max out at about two dozen nominations for most of the season, the end result is looking rosier and could (and I stress “could”) end up close to last year’s 30+ nominations.

Tomorrow we’ll look at the latest rankings for the BIG 4 categories in detail one week away from Announcement morning.

GOLDEN GLOBES IN THE REARVIEW…

Last night’s Golden Globes results are listed below:

Song: Masterpiece/Madonna et. al./W.E.

Score: Ludovic Bource/The Artist

Screenplay: Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris

Direction: Martin Scorsese/Hugo

Foreign Language: A Separation

Animated: Adventures of Tintin

Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer/The Help

Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer/Beginners

Actress (Comedy or Musical): Michele Williams/My Week with Marilyn

Actor: (Comedy or Musical): Jean Dujardin/The Artist

Actress (Drama): Meryl Streep/The Iron Lady

Actor (Drama): George Clooney/The Descendants

Film (Comedy or Musical): The Artist

Film (Drama): The Descendants

Telluride finished the night with 6 Globes.

The Breakdown:

The Artist-3

The Descendants-2

One each for The Help, W.E., Midnight in Paris, Hugo, Tintin, Beginners, My Week with Marilyn, A Separation and The Iron Lady.

Surprises? No big ones. Maybe the song choice or Tintin…

Bumps/Fails? Since the Oscar nomination ballots are in, obviously no affect there. Williams and Streep maybe got a little PR boost in their contest with Viola Davis. The Artist looks like the film to beat.

A look tomorrow at the Oscar breakdown and more "below the line" Oscar info.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

FLASH: GOLDEN GLOBES PREDICTIONS FOR TONIGHT

2012-01-15T10:55:00.000-06:00

GOLDEN GLOBES PREDICTIONS FROM THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE

There are 14 film categories that will be announced tonight between japes from host Ricky Gervais. Here are The FAC predictions for them:

Song: The Living Proof/The Help
Score: Ludovic Bource/The Artist
Screenplay: Michel Hazanavicius/The Artist
Direction: Michael Hazanavicius/The Artist
Foreign Language: A Separation
Animated: Rango
Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain/The Help
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer/Beginners
Actress (Comedy or Musical): Michele Williams/My Week with Marilyn
Actor: (Comedy or Musical): Jean Dujardin/The Artist
Actress (Drama): Viola Davis/The Help
Actor (Drama): George Clooney/The Descendants
Film (Comedy or Musical): The Artist
Film (Drama): The Descendants

Should this come to pass Telluride #38 claims 8 of the 14 awards. Multiple Globe winners would be:

The Artist with 5
The Help with 3
and The Descendants with 2

We'll see what happens tonight....

Special to the FAC: Documentary, Art Direction, Costumes and The Golden Globes

2012-01-15T09:31:00.002-06:00

SPECIAL TO THE FAC: DOCUMENTARY, ART DIRECTION, COSTUMES AND THE GOLDEN GLOBES!

Here’s a snapshot of where the Oscar race is in three “below the line/non-Big 8” categories. Information collected from: Awards Daily, Incontention.com, The Hollywood Reporter, Film Misery, The Film Experience, Awards Circuit and Rope of Silicon.

DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE LENGTH)

1) Project Nim

2) Paradise Lost 3

3) Buck

4) We Were Here

5) Pina

Also in play:

6) If a Tree Falls

7) Bill Cunningham

8) Semper Fi

9) Loving Story

10) To Hell and Back

Other possibles: The Undefeated, Sing Your Song, Battle for Brooklyn

Comment: Pina has the distinction of possibly being a dual nominee for Doc and Best Foreign Language Film and is, of course, a graduate of Telluride #38

ART DIRECTION

1) Hugo

2) The Artist

3) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows

4) Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

5) War Horse

In play:

6) Anonymous

7) The Tree of Life

8) The Help

9) Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

10) A Dangerous Method

Outside shots: Capt. America, Midnight in Paris, Drive

Comment: We’ll see if the War Horse dive affects its chances at a nomination here.

COSTUMES

1) Hugo

2) The Artist

3) Jane Eyre

4) My Week with Marilyn

5) The Help

Also playing:

6) Anonymous

7) W. E.

8) Midnight in Paris

9) The Iron Lady

10) War Horse

Others that could sneak in: Albert Nobbs, J. Edgar, Tinker Tailor

Comment: Back in September, I thought Albert Nobbs had a pretty good shot in this category as well as Art Direction and Makeup. Now, makeup looks like its best shot at an additional nomination beyond Actress, Supporting Actress and Best Song.

GOLDEN GLOBES

The golden Globes are tonight. What will the results from this wing-ding put on by The Hollywood Foreign Press Association tell us…almost zip….but it could give a jump start to someone’s or some film’s flagging Oscar campaign. Check back here tomorrow…

Here's the list of GG nominees:

Best Motion Picture — Drama
"The Descendants"
"The Help"
"Hugo"
"The Ides of March"
"Moneyball"
"War Horse"

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama
Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"
Viola Davis, "The Help"
Rooney Mara, "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"
Tilda Swinton, "We Need to Talk About Kevin

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama
George Clooney, "The Descendants"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "J. Edgar"
Michael Fassbender, "Shame
Ryan Gosling, "The Ides of March"
Brad Pitt, "Moneyball"

Best Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical
"50/50"
"The Artist"
"Bridesmaids"
"Midnight in Paris"
"My Week With Marilyn"

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical
Jodie Foster, "Carnage
Charlize theron, "Young Adult"
Kristen Wiig, "Bridesmaids"
Michelle Williams, "My Week With Marilyn"
Kate Winslet, "Carnage"

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture — Comedy or musical
Jean Dujardin, "The Artist
Brendan Gleeson, "The Guard"
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, "50/50"
Ryan Gosling, "Crazy, Stupid, Love."
Owen Wilson, "Midnight in Paris"

Best Animated Feature Film
"The Adventures of Tintin"
"Arthur Christmas"
"Cars 2"
"Puss in Boots"
"Rango"

Best Foreign Language Film
"The Flowers of War" (China)
"In the Land of Blood and Honey" (USA)
"The Kid With a Bike" (Belgium)
"A Separation" (Iran)
"The Skin I Live In" (Spain)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Berenice Bejo, "The Artist"
Jessica Chastain, "The Help"
Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs"
Octavia Spencer, "The Help"
Shailene Woodley, "The Descendants"

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Kenneth Branagh, "My Week with Marilyn"
Albert Brooks, "Drive"
Jonah Hill, "Moneyball"
Viggo Mortensen, "A Dangerous Method"
Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"

Best Director — Motion Picture
Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
George Clooney, "The Ides of March"
Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"
Alexander Payne, "The Descendants"
Martin Scorsese, "Hugo"

Best Screenplay — Motion Picture
Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon - "The Ides of March"
Michel Hazanavicius - "The Artist"
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash - "The Descendants"
Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin - "Moneyball"

Best Original Score — Motion Picture
Ludovic Bource - "The Artist"
Abel Korzeniowski - "W.E."
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross - "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"
Howard Shore - "Hugo"
John Williams - "War Horse"

Best Original Song — Motion Picture
"Hello Hello" — "Gnomeo & Juliet," music by Elton John, lyrics by Bernie Taupin
"The Keeper"— "Machine Gun Preacher," music and lyrics by Chris Cornell
"Lay Your Head Down" — "Albert Nobbs," music by Brian Byrne, lyrics by Glenn Close
"The Living Proof" — "The Help"; music by Mary J. Blige, Thomas Newman, Harvey Mason Jr.; lyrics by Mary J. Blige, Harvey Mason Jr., Damon Thomas
"Masterpiece" — W.E., music and lyrics by Madonna, Julie Frost, Jimmy Harry

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Special to the FAC: Foreign, Editing, Cinematography

2012-01-14T09:51:00.002-06:00

SPECIAL TO THE FAC: FOREIGN, CINEMATOGRAPHY, EDITING 9 DAYS OUT

Continuing to look at “below the line” Oscar categories and the state of the Oscar race in each of them as we get closer and closer to nomination morning. The Oscar predictors utilized for this analysis:

Scott Feinberg (The Hollywood Reporter

Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)

Kris Tapley (Incontention/Hit Fix)

Brad Brevet, Rope of Silicon

Film Experience

Film Misery

Awards Circuit

BEST FOREIGN FILM

1) A Separation

2) Where do We Go Now

3) In Darkness

4) Le Havre

5) Pina

Other possibles:

6) Happy Happy

7) Footnote

8) Miss Bala

9) Monsieur Lazhar

10) Flowers of War

Others: Once Upon a Time in Anatolia, Superclassico, Postcard, Declaration of War, A Simple Life, and Colors of the Mountain

Comment: A Separation is the only absolute lock in this category and is the odds on favorite to win the Oscar. As I have said, it should also be a contender for Best Original Screenplay (and maybe it will get one of those five nods, the odds are better today than they were a month ago, #occupyoscar). The LA film critics awarded it Best Screenplay at their soiree last night. Of course, Oscar ballots for the nomination process were due yesterday, I believe.

After A Separation 2 thru 4 are likely, but not 100% definite by any means. Pina could well get the fifth slot, but so could ANY of the next 6 films or even Anatolia…

And then there is the possibility that Footnote bumps out Where Do We Go Now and all five films that get nominated played at TFF #38…it’s not likely…but it could happen.

Also, the level of success of “Telluride” films in this category is likely to raise the number of total Oscar noms from this year’s fest. I have been saying, almost since the Tuesday after the close of the festival that TFF #38 would produce in the neighborhood of 20-24 nominees this year. This category may pump that number up by a couple….we’ll see Jan. 24

EDITING

1) The Artist

2) War Horse

3) Hugo

4) Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

5) Moneyball

Also in play:

6) Drive

7) The Descendants

8) Extremely Loud

9) The Tree of Life

10) The Ides of March

Other possibles: The Help, Tinker Tailor, J. Edgar, Contagion, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Midnight in Paris, Warrior

Comment: Conventional wisdom holds (and the history of the Oscars tends to prove) that it is very difficult to win Best Picture without a nomination in this category. That’s why there was some interweb scuttlebutt this week about Fox Searchlight pushing hard for The Descendants in this category and also in Cinematography. You can see from the above list that the “push” looks likes it has had at least some success.

I was talking to a friend of mine this week who is an Academy member and an editor and he said that the best editing happens in a film where you don’t notice it. He also said that Descendants had, in fact, been very well edited…so…

Personally, my guess is that if there is a departure from these five listed at the top, it would be Drive.

The A.C.E. announces its nominees for its Guild award on Monday…that might provide some clarity.

You also have to wonder if the War Horse swoon continues here. Again, Monday’s guild announcement will be enlightening.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Tree of Life

2) Hugo

3) War Horse

4) The Artist

5) The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Others with a shot (heh heh):

6) Drive

7) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows

8) Tinker Tailor

9) The Descendants

10) Extremely Loud

Outside shots (again, heh heh): Moneyball, Melancholia, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Jane Eyre, J. Edgar, and A Dangerous Method.

Comment: The list is a tad behind events as some of my prognosticators haven’t updated in light of the guild announcement from the ASC earlier this week that left War Horse off the list (and if it can’t get some love in this category, where is it going to come from?) The ASC nominated: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy instead. Will that be how it comes down on Oscar announcement day? Probably.

Coming Sunday….Documentary, Art Direction and Costumes…

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Special to the FAC: Best Animated Film and Critic's Choice Awards

2012-01-13T08:40:00.001-06:00

SPECIAL TO THE FAC: BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM 10 DAYS OUTWINNERS OF THE 17TH ANNUAL CRITICS’ CHOICE MOVIE AWARDS VIA MOVIE CITY NEWS ( Telluride #38 films in bold)

With just 10 days left until the Oscar nominations are announced here are the films most likely to named on Jan. 24 are ( one TFF #38 film is bold and large:

1) Rango

2) Puss in Boots

3) The Adventures on Tintin

4) Arthur Christmas

5) Kung Fu Panda 2

In the running:

6) Rio

7) Winnie the Pooh

8) Cars 2

9) Happy Feet 2

10) Chico and Rita

Others receiving notice: Wrinkles and Gnomeo and Juliet.

In a year that has been less than stellar in as far as animated films are concerned this category seems a lock for Rango. After that it’s simply which other films will be able to advertise that they were nominated. Rio has a reasonable shot to bump something out of the top five and snag a nomination.

BEST PICTURE
“The Artist”

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney – “The Descendants”

BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis – “The Help”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christopher Plummer – “Beginners”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Octavia Spencer – “The Help”

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Thomas Horn – “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
“The Help”

BEST DIRECTOR
Michel Hazanavicius – “The Artist”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Midnight in Paris” – Woody Allen

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Moneyball” – Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, Story by Stan Chervin

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY (TIE)
“The Tree of Life”
AND
“War Horse”

BEST ART DIRECTION
“Hugo”

BEST EDITING
“The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“The Artist”

BEST MAKE-UP
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“Rise of the Planet of the Apes”

BEST SOUND
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Rango”

BEST ACTION MOVIE
“Drive”

BEST COMEDY
“Bridesmaids”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“A Separation”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“George Harrison: Living in the Material World”

BEST SONG
“Life’s a Happy Song” – The Muppets
Performed by Jason Segel, Amy Adams and Walter
Written by Bret McKenzie and The Muppets

BEST SCORE
“The Artist”

JOEL SIEGEL AWARD
Sean Penn

CRITICS’ CHOICE MUSIC+FILM AWARD
Martin Scorsese

To view the Movie City News complete story abput last night's awards go here: http://moviecitynews.com/2012/01/the-17th-annual-critics%E2%80%99-choice-movie-awards-select/

The FAC and Screenplays/Shame Stories/Nobbs Looks/Cinematography Guild

2012-01-12T07:26:00.000-06:00

Good morning on a Thursday...

SPECIAL TO THE FAC: SCREENPLAYS 11 DAYS OUT

Historically the most difficult categories to predict, the writing categories are where we shine our Oscar spotlight today…

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

1) The Descendants

2) Moneyball

3) Hugo

4) The Help

5) War Horse

In the Running:

6) Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

6) Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

8) Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

9) The Ides of March

10) Drive

HOT: The Help, Tattoo

NOT: Extremely Loud

THOUGHT: I think that it’s likely that “War Horse” may be also in trouble here. The snub yesterday by the cinematographers' guild continues a string of snubs for the Spielberg film. I won’t be surprised next week if it’s off this list before the announcement of nominees happens. Actually, positions 1 thru 4 seem pretty solid to me. Maybe “Tattoo” or “Tinker Tailor” sneaks in for the fifth nomination.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Artist

2) Midnight in Paris

3) Win Win

4) 50/50

5) Bridesmaids

In the Running:

6) Young Adult

7) A Separation

8) The Tree of Life

9) Beginners

10) Take Shelter

HOT: Win Win, 50/50, Bridesmaids, A Separation, and Beginners

NOT: Young Adult, Tree of Life

THOUGHT: Maybe the toughest category to pick every year and seemingly even tougher this year. If the 1 thru 5 positions hold you’d have an interesting scenario in which all of the nominees were comedies or have largely comic elements. That’s unusual.

Of course, I still am advocating a nomination for Asghar Farhadi for his phenomenal script for

“ A Separation”. #occupyoscar!

Tomorrow a look at the Animated Features in which a lizard will lead the way…

SHAME STORIES

I'm still saying that when I put up my top ten list for 2011 films (soon, I promise) that this film will likely be at the top of the list. It continues to look fairly positive for Michael Fassbender to get a Best Actor Oscar nomination in a few days. Carey Mulligan still appears to have a chance at Best Supporting Actress, but I'd wager that it's a 5 to 1 proposition for her at this point. I'd also be on board for a number of other possible noms, but that's not going to happen. Nevertheless, here are a couple of Shame-centric stories that appeared this week.

An interview on the Fox Searchlight website with Fassbender, Mulligan and writer/director Steve McQueen:

http://content.foxsearchlight.com/inside/node/5078

Also a Carey Mulligan interview posted at The New York Times:

http://carpetbagger.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/11/carey-mulligan-and-the-play-that-is-shame/?smid=tw-thecarpetbagger&seid=auto

ALBERT NOBBS LOOKS

Thanks to Movie City News we can take a look at Glenn Close in her original incarnation as Albert Nobbs from her Obie winning performance from 30 years ago. She's a kid!

http://moviecitynews.com/2012/01/what-did-glenn-close-look-like-as-albert-nobbs-in-1981/

CINEMATOGRAPHY GUILD SPEAKS

The American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) announced the five films nominated for their top award yesterday. They were: The Tree of Life, Hugo, The Artist, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy. Snubbed again...War Horse. Looking less and less like it will get the Best Picture nomination that seemed a certainty only a few days ago.

Here's a rundown of the ASC nomination story from The Wrap:

http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/tree-life-artist-nominated-cinematographers-34288

Again, I'll have a "special" to The Film Awards Clearinghouse tomorrow looking at the race for the Best Animated Film race.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

SPECIAL TO THE FAC: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

2012-01-11T07:32:00.000-06:00

SPECIAL TO THE FAC: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 12 DAYS OUT

In what is generally considered a two horse race, at this point Christopher Plummer seems to have the edge over Albert Brooks and then it’s a battle for the other three spots. Here’s the latest compilation with the only Telluride #38 contender in bold and large).

The following has been collated using publicly accessed information from:

Awards Daily

Incontention

Awards Circuit

Film Misery

Film Experience

Thompson on Hollywood

Rope of Silicon

Hollywood Elsewhere

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Dave Karger/Entertainment Weekly

1) Christopher Plummer/Beginners

2) Albert Brooks/Drive

3) Kenneth Brannagh/My Week with Marilyn

4) Jonah Hill/Moneyball

5) Nick Nolte/Warrior

In the Running:

6) Armie Hammer/J. Edgar

7) Patton Oswalt/Young Adult

8) Max Von Sydow/Extremely Loud

8) Viggo Mortensen/A Dangerous Method (tie)

10) Andy Serkis/Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Others getting notice:

Asa Butterflied/Hugo, Ben Kingsley/Hugo, Kevin Spacey/Margin Call, Corey Stoll/Midnight in Paris, Robert Forster/Descendants, Brad Pitt/Tree of Life.

HOT: Hill, Hammer, Mortensen and Serkis

NOT: Von Sydow

THOUGHT: In addition to Plummer and Brooks, Brannagh appears to be a lock for a nomination. Currently, Hill and Nolte appear to be fairly comfortable as well.

Tomorrow, I’ll take a look at the race for both types of screenplays.

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Special to the FAC: Supporting Actress

2012-01-09T16:48:00.001-06:00

SPECIAL TO THE FAC: Best Supporting actress 13 Days out:

The following has been collated using publicly accessed information from:

Awards Daily

Incontention

Awards Circuit

Film Misery

Film Experience

Thompson on Hollywood

Rope of Silicon

Hollywood Elsewhere

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Dave Karger/Entertainment Weekly

The Best Supporting Actress Leader Board

1) Octavia Spencer/The Help

2) Jessica Chastain/The Help

3) Berenice Bejo/The Artist

4) Shailene Woodley/The Descendants

5) Melissa McCarthy/Bridesmaids

Also in the running:

6) Janet McTeer/Albert Nobbs

7) Vanessa Redgrave/Coriolanus

8) Carey Mulligan/Shame

9) Sandra Bullock/Extremely Loud

10) Judi Dench/J. Edgar

Others with votes:

Judy Greer/Descendants, Evan Rachel Wood/Ides of March, Jessica Chastain/Take Shelter and Jodi Foster/Carnage

HOT: Chastain and McCarthy

NOT: Woodley and Redgrave

THOUGHT: Realistically, I suspect that the 1 through 4 spots are in and it’s a slugfest between McCarthy and McTeer for the fifth spot. Personally I’m on the McTeer train and have been since I saw Nobbs in T-ride. Read my Playlist review from there and you’ll see that I was suggesting the possibility early on:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/telluride_11_review_albert_nobbs_glenn_close_mia_wasikowska

DIRECTORS GUILD

Nominees of the DGA announced yesterday:

Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris

Martin Scorsese/Hugo

Alexander Payne/The Descendants

Michael Hazanavicius/The Artist

David Fincher/Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Surprises were that Fincher is in and Spielberg, Taylor and Malick are out. This probably nukes Tree of Life as a Best Pic nominee. It also hurts War Horse (I said yesterday in this space that I thought it was losing steam) and The Help, but probably doesn’t kill them and it gives a boost to the chances for Girl…Tattoo.

Kris Tapley points out that Payne’s Descendants is the only film that punched its ticket with all the major guilds. The Artist was not WGA eligible, so couldn’t be named by every major guild. However, it remains the favorite and will likely be the only film with double digit nominations in two weeks.

Tomorrow: Best Supporting Actor

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FLASH:DGA Nominations

2012-01-09T12:10:00.001-06:00

DGA Nominates:

Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris
Michael Hazanavicius/The Artist
Alexander Payne/The Descendants
David Fincher/Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Martin Scorsese/Hugo

No Spielberg, No Malick, No Tate Taylor...

More later

Best Direction/NFSC Awards/Critics Take/Gurus and Feinberg/ A Separation Soars

2012-01-08T10:54:00.000-06:00

Good Monday morning everyone...

I have been changing things up a bit this last week with daily posts focused on specific Oscar categories. I am planning on continuing to do that this week and get into categories beyond the Big 8. All of that leading up to a final pre-nomination edition of The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Monday, Jan. 23, the day before nominations are announced. And so, to that end...

BEST DIRECTION

SPECIAL TO THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE: BEST DIRECTOR 14 DAYS OUT

The FAC takes a snapshot look at individual categories using the predictive resources of:

Awards Daily (Sasha Stone)

Incontention.com (Kristopher Tapley at HitFix)

The Hollywood Reporter (Scott Feinberg)

Entertainment Weekly (Dave Karger)

Hollywood Elsewhere (Jeffrey Wells)

Thompson on Hollywood (Anne Thompson)

Rope of Silicon (Brad Brevet)

Film Misery

Film Experience

Awards Circuit

DGA TODAY…WHO WILL IT BE AND WILL IT BE THE SAME FIVE FOR OSCAR?

We’re going to be reading the tea leaves after today’s DGA announcement of the five directors nominated by that guild for outstanding achievement for this year. Here is what the collation of Oscar forecasters listed above have for the Best Direction Oscar as of this morning (TFF #38 Directors in bold and large):

1) Michael Hazanavicius/The Artist

2) Martin Scorsese/Hugo

3) Steven Spielberg/War Horse

4) Alexander Payne/The Descendants

5) Terrence Malick/The Tree of Life

In the running are:

6) Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris

7) Bennett Miller/Moneyball

8) Steven Daldry/Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

9) Tate Taylor/The Help

10) George Clooney/The Ides of March

Others receiving votes: Nicolas Winding Refn/Drive, David Fincher/Dragon Tattoo, Steve McQueen/Shame.

Gaining traction: Spielberg and Taylor…though, I get the sense that “War Horse” and Spielberg may have lost some ground in the last week to 10 days.

Losing ground: Payne and Fincher.

I think that Hazanavicius, Scorsese and Payne are locks (despite Payne losing some ground since my last massive post of the Awards Clearinghouse on Dec. 21). That leaves Spielberg, Allen Malick, Miller and Taylor fighting for the last two spots. I think Fincher, Clooney and Daldry are out of the running altogether.

So bring on the DGA…

More tomorrow as I take a gander at the Supporting Actress race…

NATIONAL SOCIETY OF FILM CRITICS ANNOUNCE AWARDS

The NFSC announced their results on Saturday...here hey are (from the NSFC website:

http://www.nationalsocietyoffilmcritics.com/?p=44 )

The National Society of Film Critics on Saturday, January 7th, 2012, chose “Melancholia”
as Best Picture of the Year 2011. Kristin Dunst was named best actress for her performance in Lars von Trier’s film, and Brad Pitt was named best actor for his work in “Moneyball” and “The Tree of Life.” Albert Brooks (or his evil twin) won best supporting actor for his appearance in “Drive,” and Jessica Chastain was named best supporting actress for her work in three films: “The Tree of Life,” “Take Shelter” and “The Help.”

See below for all votes in Best Picture and other categories for outstanding film achievement.

The Society, which is made up of 58 of the country’s most prominent movie critics, held its 46th annual awards voting meeting at Sardi’s Restaurant in New York City, using a weighted ballot system. Scrolls will be sent to the winners.

BEST ACTOR
*1. Brad Pitt – 35 (Moneyball, The Tree of Life)
2. Gary Oldman – 22 (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
3. Jean Dujardin – 19 (The Artist)

BEST ACTRESS
*1. Kirsten Dunst – 39 (Melancholia)
2. Yun Jung-hee – 25 (Poetry)
3. Meryl Streep – 20 (The Iron Lady)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
*1. Albert Brooks – 38 (Drive)
2. Christopher Plummer – 24 (Beginners)
3. Patton Oswalt – 19 (Young Adult)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
*1. Jessica Chastain – 30 (The Tree of Life, Take Shelter, The Help)
2. Jeannie Berlin – 19 (Margaret)
3. Shailene Woodley – 17 (The Descendants)

BEST PICTURE
*1. Melancholia – 29 (Lars von Trier)
2. The Tree of Life – 28 (Terrence Malick)
3. A Separation – 20 (Asghar Farhadi)

BEST DIRECTOR
*1. Terrence Malick – 31 (The Tree of Life)
2. Martin Scorsese – 29 (Hugo)
3. Lars von Trier – 23 (Melancholia)

BEST NONFICTION
*1. Cave of Forgotten Dreams – 35 (Werner Herzog)
2. The Interrupters – 26 (Steve James)
3. Into the Abyss – 18 (Werner Herzog)

BEST SCREENPLAY
*1. A Separation – 39 (Asghar Farhadi)
2. Moneyball – 22 (Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin)
3. Midnight in Paris – 16 (Woody Allen)

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
*1. A Separation – 67 (Asghar Farhadi)
2. Mysteries of Lisbon – 28 (Raoul Ruiz)
3. Le Havre – 22 (Aki Kaurismäki)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
*1. The Tree of Life – 76 (Emanuel Lubezki)
2. Melancholia – 41 (Manuel Alberto Claro)
3. Hugo – 33 (Robert Richardson)

EXPERIMENTAL
Ken Jacobs, for “Seeking the Monkey King.”

FILM HERITAGE
1. BAMcinématek for its complete Vincente Minnelli retrospective with all titles shown on 16 mm. or 35 mm. film.
2. Lobster Films, Groupama Gan Foundation for Cinema and the Technicolor Foundation for Cinema for the restoration of the color version of George Méliès’s “A Trip to the Moon.”
3. New York’s Museum of Modern Art for its extensive retrospective of Weimar Cinema.
4. Flicker Alley for their box set “Landmarks of Early Soviet Film.”
5. Criterion Collecton for its 2-disc DVD package “The Complete Jean Vigo.”

Comment: Telluride #38 is recognized with The Artist (#3 Best Actor/Dujardin), The Descendants (#3 Best Supporting Actress/Woodley, Into the Abyss (#3 Doc), A Separation (#3 Best Pic, Best Screenplay, Best Foreifn Language Film. TFF #37 was recognized for Yun Jung-hee's performance in Poetry.

CRITICS' TAKE

Movie City News is up to 210 critics Top Ten lists collated and categorized. You can find the whole enchilada here:

http://moviecitynews.com/2012/01/125132/

The Top Ten currently (and in order) : Tree of Life, Descendants, Drive, The Artist, Hugo, Melancholia, A Separation, Certified Copy, Moneyball, Martha Marcy May Marlene.

GURUS AND FEINBERG

Movie City News has a new Gurus of Gold up this morning for Best Picture and guesses for DGA nominations' Find that here:
http://moviecitynews.com/2012/01/gurus-o-gold-welcome-to-2012/

And Scott Feinberg is also up with his new overall Oscar picks on a new Feinberg Forecast at The Hollywood Reporter here:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-the-artist-feinberg-forecast-279562

A SEPARATION

Asghar Farhadi's brilliant film continues to make waves as evidenced by its lofty position on the above MCN chart and it being the most rewarded Telluride #38 offering in the NFSC announcement on Saturday. It remains the front runner for the Best Foreign Language Oscar and I continue to advocate for a Best Original Screenplay nomination to anyone who will listen (#occupyoscar). I can tell you that that notion may be gaining some traction...you'll see later this week.

Farhadi has two interview that appeared this week that I will pass on. One from Rope of Silicon:

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/interview-asghar-farhadi-separation/

The other from The Wall Street Journal:

http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2012/01/06/a-separation-director-asghar-farhadi-on-his-films-breakout-success/

Thanks for reading. Take a look tomorrow on our "Special" for Best Supporting Actress.

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