MichiganLiberal

The good and evil of Dow Chemical

Eric B. — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:17:10 GMT

Back in the day, most of the people I knew who lived in Midland would talk about the occasional afternoon that a civil defence alarm would sound across the city and people would go indoors to avoid some kind of unexplained fume floating through town. Then, we learned about the dangers of dioxin.

Many years later (that is, today), the company responsible for both -- Dow Chemical -- continues to drag its feet on the topic of dioxin downstream of Midland. During the Bush presidency, the company was rumored to be responsible for getting the EPA Region V administrator fired for she ~~holding the company accountable~~ doing her job. There was also an incident at a meeting between the company and state officials that should have been open, but was closed because the company didn't want people to know what it was doing (there was a video circulating a couple of years ago in which a local Tee Vee reporter was muscled out of the room by Dow security guys). And, environmentalists regularly question John Cherry's role in negotiations between the state and the company, wondering if he'd be as eco-friendly a governor as he says he'd be. This week, frustration with the foot dragging was evident via The Environment Report.

Yet, Dow is also a corporate role model when it comes to global warming. During the 90s, the company started a campaign to lower its energy costs through greater efficiency, and found that some of the things it used to achieve that could be sold to other companies and regular homeowners. Today, it has alternative energy projects around the world, and has helped invigorate the Bay-area economy.

This dichotomy can be explained by a single idea rooted to the core of the company, which is that chemistry is better than a good thing.

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Coming out of World War II, it was assumed that chemistry and science in general were considerably better than good things. It was assumed they were perfect things. The technical application of chemistry could rid our fields of pests, the technical application of chemistry would make disease a horror of the past, the technical application of chemistry would banish forever famine. Pestilence, death, famine ... anyone sense a pattern here?

And, we segue right into napalm, which is where the wheels started to come off this image of perfection. Right about this time, the nation was already caught up in a debate about pesticides, or rather the pesticide called DDT, because a science writer named Rachel Carson had raised some rather uncomfortable questions.

Those two helped to convince a not insubstantial number of people that not only was science not perfect, but that it wasn't a good thing at all. Those people, primarily hailing from the American Left, instead sought to shake off science, which became an abstract kind of devil (bringing us better toaster ovens at a tremendous human and environmental toll), and return to a simpler life.

There was a backlash to these questions from those who still believed that science could manufacture an Eden necessarily lost in the forward march of progress. The world's problem, even those caused by the technical application of science, could all be solved by further technical applications of science. Those problems that raised uncomfortable questions were dealt with more simply -- they were ignored or said to be figments of someone's imagination.

You can still see the original vestiges of this at work today in people who insist that DDT does not harm the environment and who call Rachel Carson the worst mass murderer since Stalin. Through the years, that was applied to water pollution (sings the bard, "Now, the Lord can make you tumble, the Lord can make you turn, the Lord can make you overflow, but the Lord can't make you burn."), incidents like the (Dow subsidiary) Union Carbide gas cloud that killed thousands in India, acid rain, dioxin, and right up through the current state of climate politics. All of these things moved through stages not unlike the stages of mourning (with bargaining represented as the belief that additional technology will present itself at an opportune moment to tidy things back up ... today, belief in clean coal and geo-engineering). And, of course, you may also see it still alive today in Dow's "Human element" campaign. Add people and the chemistry changes. Add people with chemistry and you get a covalent bond with a limitless future.

Admitting complicity in the contamination of rivers and property would cost the company, and refusal to do so is motivated undoubtedly to a large degree by not wanting to pay through the nose for past mistakes. Those past mistakes, however, came as a result in the belief in a perfect science for a perfect world. A company may exist to make money for its shareholders, but most of the people who work there do so because they are convinced that ultimately they are doing something that is a work of good, a service to their fellow man. That belief is shaken when challenged by the realities of death and contamination, and people will fight to prevent having to make that connection.

It is through that prism that we should look at Dow. At its heart is an endeavor that prides itself as being a profitable way to make life better for people. The company confidently tells us it can help curb greenhouse gas emissions. But, there is this other thing -- a lingering mess that resulted from the company's past works -- that would suggest that faith in the company may be misplaced. If you doubt the company, you must also question how far you can solve problems through the technical application of science. For some people, that's a very natural thing. For others, especially those personally engaged, it is not such an easy thing.

Campaign news and rumors

Eric B. — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:52:30 GMT

I told you last week to pay attention to Jonathan Oosting of MLive. This is why:

Accountant Lisa Howze last week narrowly lost her bid for Detroit City Council, finishing tenth in voting for the nine-seat council.

Now comes word that Howze may keep her campaign rolling, shifting focus to the state legislature.

He got some of his material from Facebook, but later confirmed it. I'm sure that Akindele fellow from Detroit is happy at this news.

Speaking of Facebook and next year's election, word from Joe DiSano, of Two Joes fame, is that Rick Michigan is planning to buy Tee Vee ad time starting next February. And, while we're on the topic of Rick Michigan, here's a hilarious feature story about campaign spokesman Jake Suski.

Cox Must Answer Free Press Questions

Elliot — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 10:56:47 GMT

Today's Detroit Free Press Editorial poses some of the questions Mike Cox MUST TRUTHFULLY ANSWER under oath before he can hope to return to his gubernatorial campaign. It will be solid evidence that Cox is crooked if Cox continues his rope a dope strategy of changing the subject or attacking the reporters or questioning the competency and motives of 3 career Michigan State Police investigators whenever Cox is questioned about his obstruction of the Manoogian Mansion investigation.

The Free Press questions include:

? Did the AG's office condone DPD's refusal to provide evidence sought by state police investigators, as Krebs asserts -- and if so, why?
? Was the state police attempt to subpoena hospital records investigators hoped would identify the alleged Manoogian assault victim a fishing expedition involving the records of "thousands of African-American women at Detroit Receiving," as Cox has previously asserted, or a narrowly focused inquiry into one three-hour period, as Krebs testified? And if Krebs' version is correct, why did the AG's office refuse to authorize the subpoena?
? Why did Cox close down his investigation and pressure the state police to conclude its own before Krebs and his colleagues were satisfied with its thoroughness?
? What did Cox hope to achieve by interviewing Kilpatrick himself, without placing the mayor under oath or making a record of the interview?

A few other question that should be asked of Cox:

-Who was the intermediary who cut the deal between Cox and Kilpatrick that Cox would take the investigation over and then close it down and clear Kilpatrick?

-What was the quo that Kilpatrick traded in return for Cox ending the investigation?

-Did Cox end the Kilpatrick investigation in return for behind the scenes support in Cox's 2006 re election campaign or was Kilpatrick blackmailing Cox with threats of distributing Courthouse security video tapes of Cox caught in flagrante delicto with some of his employees?

Cox told the Free Press that issues related to his hindering the Manoogian Mansion investigation was like "gum stuck on his shoe" and that he was just going to keep walking to get off. Cox must have skipped a lot of law school classes or he would know that engaging in some kind of obstruction of a law enforcement investigation for some yet to be learned benefit is a serious ethical if not criminal problem and not just gum on his shoe. Apparently Cox did not pay attention to his oath of office to uphold the laws of the state either.

At least we can say we didn't raise taxes

Eric B. — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:11:40 GMT

New report out. Conclusions predictable. Michigan roads suck, are apt to get suckier.

(AP) — LANSING, Mich. - One-third of Michigan roads were in poor condition in 2008, a percentage that could climb dramatically in coming years if lawmakers don't pump more money into transportation, road advocates said Monday.
The Michigan Infrastructure and Transportation Association put out a list of cities and counties with the largest amount of bad roads. Detroit led the list, followed by Grand Rapids and Ann Arbor.
Wayne and Oakland counties had the most miles of federally funded roads in poor condition, although their actual percentage of bad roads was in the middle of the pack at around 25 percent.

...snip...

"Michigan's local road systems are collapsing because funding continues to plummet," MITA lobbyist Mike Nystrom said in a statement. "This isn't a case of road agencies not doing their jobs."

A thing is broken. Action demanded. An icon of civilization is crumbling. What to do?

It didn’t get much play in all the hype about next year’s budget, but the loss of nearly $250 million in federal transportation money should give everyone a good case of road rage. The reason: the state can't even afford to put up the 20% local match required for federal road dollars. Already a donor state, Michigan will lose, by 2013, nearly $2 billion in federal road money — TAXES WE ALL PAY – because our politicians haven’t had the foresight, or the guts, to raise the state’s 19-cent-a-gallon gas tax.

In short, the state Legislature is confronted by a problem, and it ... opts to let things get worse!

When this gets covered in local papers over the last couple of months, the general outline of the thing generally goes like this ... newspaper reports that roads are in crappy condition or that snow plowing will get cut this upcoming winter, newspaper quotes "area man" who says, "God damn it, something has to be done," "area man" complains about taxes, newspaper reports that road maintenance is carried out via the Michigan Transportation Fund -- funded largely by the gas tax -- and that revenues have stagnated or fallen. Lawmakers, who knew this anyway, continue to sit on their collective thumbs because raising taxes would kill various politicians' chances to secure nominations next year.

We've been on this point before. It seems we revisit this point every single day. This is the same kind of thing at work behind cuts to education, cuts to revenue sharing, cuts to basically everything. It's the same basic bear.

Sheltrown to introduce MichLib Green Energy Legislation

Brady — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:24:23 GMT

Democratic State Representative Joel Sheltrown of West Branch will introduce legislation this week that would put green energy production within the financial reach of most Michigan homeowners and business owners. The proposal was brought to his attention by MichLib bloggers and is modeled after similar laws in other states.

The legislation will allow local units of government to issue bonds to provide for loans to homeowners and businesses located within their jurisdiction for renewable energy production and energy efficiency improvements. The bill will increase local green energy production and energy efficiency improvements in Michigan and to stimulate green energy jobs in those fields.

Under the bill, energy production includes wind energy, solar energy or geothermal energy. Energy efficiency improvements incldue federal Energy Star qualifying improvements affixed to the structure.

The decision to seek and issue bonds is left to the local unit of government under the bill. It is voluntary. The process for distributing loans under the bonds is also left to the local unit of government, preserving local control of the process.

The loans would not exceed a 20 year re-payment period. The interest rate on the loans would not be more than 0.5% higher than the interest rate on the bond. The amount of the loans would be limited to no more than $10 per square foot of the structure ($20,000 on a 2,000 sq. ft. structure). Repayment of the loan would be made through winter and summer property taxes and would remain with the property in the event of a sale.

Beacuse the interest rate on the loan is kept to a rate just above that of a municipal bond and the loan is qualified through the property rather than the property's owners credit rating, it would provide most Michigan property owners with the means of generating their own renewable energy and making energy efficiency improvements on their homes or businesses that would otherwise be out of reach. If signed into law, it could provide for a surge of green energy jobs in the state for green energy manufacturing, local servicing, contractors and builders.

The bill will have no fiscal impact on the state as it does not provide a state tax credit and the loan program is not dependent on state budget support.

The photo above shows the existing wind turbine installed by Horrock's Market in Lansing.

While we're on the topic of being green

Eric B. — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:01:23 GMT

A couple of articles popped up while doing the ticker this morning. Neither is really worth its own post, but they're both kind of interesting in their own regard.

Steven Chu, the Secretary of Energy, is a big promoter of white roofs. Paint a roof white, rather than the traditional black, and the sun's light bounces off it rather than getting absorbed. How about living roofs?

Green roofs already are used to control temperatures, improve storm runoff and increase vegetation and wildlife habitat in urban areas. Now Getter, a doctoral student in horticulture, has quantified another environmental benefit.
Examples of green roof projects in Michigan are found in Detroit, Ann Arbor, Lansing, Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo, according to the Department of Environmental Quality.
And Ford Motor Co.'s Truck Assembly Plant in Dearborn was recognized in 2004 by Guinness World Records as the largest green roof in the world.

(Don't miss the naysayer comment asking in essence how many of these roofs come from the private sector ... those are the people opposed to green energy and are generally climate skeptics).

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From the interesting to the controversial...

State Rep. Bert Johnson, D-Detroit, introduced the bill last month that would require driving schools to promote a number of "green" lessons, including:
• The importance of carpooling and using public transportation.
• The benefits of fuel-efficient vehicles.
• How to maximize vehicle economy through maintenance and driving techniques.
• The recycling of fluids and parts.

As usual, people complain, including...

But Russ Harding, senior environmental policy analyst for the Mackinac Center, a free market research organization, sees it as government intrusion.
"Everyone, including me, is in favor of fuel efficiency and protecting the environment," Harding said. "But what bothers me is that this is another attempt by the government telling us how to live. Almost every day, they issue some new type of requirement where government tries to impose an elitist view on the people. It's political correctness to the Nth degree."

Next thing you know, we'll see a statement from the Mackinac Center opposing carpool lanes and carpool parking lots on the grounds that they help to impose "elitist" views through a stealth propaganda campaign.

It used to be regarded as a generally accepted purpose of the government to gather and disseminate information. That is, it used to be that way, until basic information came to be interpreted by various parties as nefarious propaganda campaigns aimed at controlling your life. It's a good thing Nancy Reagan isn't in office today, no doubt her "Just say No" campaign would be met with no end to press releases and contrarian press statements damning her for trying to tinker in the marketplace -- "let private parties decide on their own if 'no to drugs' is really the best path."

Two other green-ish related things of note:

*--Did anyone notice that the repair shop for Chaco sandals moved from Colorado to Rockford earlier this month? If your Chacos are in need of maintenance, feel free to send them in this winter ... your money will give a Michigan shop something to do.

*--The Local Futures conference this weekend has a pretty stellar list of presenters.

And now ... a word from our sponsor

Eric B. — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:09:11 GMT

I'd like to thank ... whoa!, what happened to today's sponsor? Oh, yes, we don't yet have a sponsor today.

And a great sadness falls over the land...

I'd like to thank our sponsor for the last two days. Again, I'd like to thank everyone who is a part of our sponsor's list, who in the past have provided a little money to help keep this site's bills paid.

Whether you would help support this site, wish to introduce readers to a new thing or idea, drive traffic to your own site, and do something for kicks, sponsorships are a very simple thing. You can sponsor in your name, you can sponsor anonymously, or you can sponsor on behalf of someone else. All things are possible in this crazy world. For information about how to do this thing, go below the fold.

Perhaps you're asking yourself, "How can I become a sponsor? Is there a secret handshake?" The answer to those two questions is this, "Very easy," and, "Only if you want the MichLib guide 'Signs that your neighbor is a member of the Illuminati secret police.'" For anyone who merely wishes to get their name in lights and an off-site link to a destination of their choosing*, here's how you do it:

1. Over the Intertubes, with credit or debit card, through Paypal. There is also a custom-built Paypal button off to the left in the "Donate" box. Our rates are $15 per day, $80 per week, and $300 per month. This is not only the simplest way to do things, but it also carries the added benefit of dropping the money directly into the account from which our hosting fees are paid.

When submitting payment, please indicate what name you'd like used in our sponsorship box, and provide an associated destination link.

2. Via snail mail. You may mail checks directly to me at:

Eric Baerren
319 S. Oak St. Apt. A
Mt. Pleasant, Mich. 48858

Please, as with a Paypal payment, include information about what name you'd like to see in lights and where you'd like to see your link taken.

3. Arrange to have a bill mailed to you. If you prefer, you may also contact me via e-mail at ebaerren@michiganliberal.com, or via phone (or even text message) at my cell at (517) 881-8008, and talk to me about other arrangement.

*--Normal, common sense restrictions (no pornography, no hate sites, no Rick Rolling or other assorted Internet-related prankery) apply.

When submitting payment, please indicate what name you'd like used in our sponsorship box, and provide an associated destination link.

2. Via snail mail. You may mail checks directly to me at:

Eric Baerren
319 S. Oak St. Apt. A
Mt. Pleasant, Mich. 48858

Please, as with a Paypal payment, include information about what name you'd like to see in lights and where you'd like to see your link taken.

*--Normal, common sense restrictions (no pornography, no hate sites, no Rick Rolling or other assorted Internet-related prankery) apply.

Globe highlights Granholm green energy work

Eric B. — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 15:28:11 GMT

At the top of the news ticker (for those of you lucky enough to see it here, live, on this site), you'll note a story from the Boston Globe about Michigan -- specifically the governor -- luring green-related businesses from Massachusetts to Michigan.

Two years ago, Michigan Governor Jennifer M. Granholm visited alternative fuel maker Mascoma in Boston with one goal: to persuade the company to build a factory in her job-hungry state.
“She personally had us on the list to recruit,’’ recalled Mascoma’s chief executive, Bruce Jamerson. “Massachusetts, they knew we were looking to build a plant. It wasn’t a priority for them at the time.’’
But Michigan made Mascoma a priority. Granholm offered the company tax incentives, grants, and promises of federal funding while promoting Michigan’s charms: manufacturing expertise, a workforce loaded with engineering talent, and a population of ready-made clients.

By the end of her second term as governor, Michigan will have an RPS, will probably have utility-sponsored feed-in tariffs, net metering, utility-driven efforts to improve the state's electrical grid (i.e. DTE and Consumers are both using federal research dollars to research ways to create a Michigan "smart grid"). I also understand that there's a bill in the works to help homeowners invest in energy production and home energy efficiency. In short, by the end of the governor's second term in office, the state will not only have the tools to lure businesses here, but to help support the green jobs industry from within, to encourage Michigan residents to buy products made here and to cut down on utility bills and maybe even earn a little money as small-time energy producers. This, by the way, will greatly encourage new economy businesses to invest here -- our winters may require a lot of heat, but when you invest in ways to help those businesses cut down on energy costs, it makes this state that much cheaper a place to grow. This is to say nothing of the green manufacturing already taking place here.

I realize there are a lot of people who deserve credit for much of this. Grand Rapids is itself a world leader as a green city. Dow and Ford long ago realized the business-related wisdom of energy efficiency. Much of this, however, is being driven by the administration (I go back to the Griffin Policy Forum wherein Dow's green energy guy called Granholm a leader in this regard).

I think it's also worth pointing out that her biggest, loudest detractors are responsible for exactly zero of this ... in fact, in some cases, they have taken active steps to make all of this not happen.

Wherein we learn that Democrats have already lost the 2020 elections

Eric B. — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 18:54:39 GMT

Peter Luke takes data from a Republican-leaning polling firm and Bill Ballenger, and talks to a new Republican state senator and discerns that Democrats are screwed.

According to fresh polling by Lansing-based Marketing Resource Group and Bill Ballenger’s Inside Michigan Politics newsletter, nearly all the independents said the economy had gotten worse in the last year and two-thirds said it’s unlikely to get any better in the next 12 months.
Independents aren’t quite as pessimistic about how the state’s being run as Republicans are, but it’s close. Ninety percent of Republicans surveyed said the state is on the wrong track. Nearly three-fourths of independents said so. Nearly half of Democrats, amazingly, said Michigan was on the right track.
By a 12-point spread, independents disapprove of Gov. Jennifer Granholm’s job performance. And they are almost as opposed to higher taxes as Republicans are.

This last bit conflicts with most every other piece of recent polling on the budget, all of which says that most voters would prefer to see a compromise of cuts and taxes rather than all of one or the other. But, if you're bound and determined to read too much into last Tuesday's elections, I guess you take what you can get.

Actually, the premise is probably not all that far off the mark. I think people would like very much for things to change, and if they can't get it from the Democrats they elected, they'll get it from the Republicans who they unelected because they wanted change last year, also. The Democrats, given a substantial mandate to fix what is broken in this country, have managed to get basically nothing accomplished this year, excepting that we finally managed to get a vote on a health care bill without federal funding for abortion. Naturally, this has put people into an uproar, guaranteeing more months of yelling and fighting while everyone else continues to get increasingly fed up with the entire thing.

We've seen the results here in Michigan. What's left of the state's media has largely taken away a similarly-sized mandate won by the governor nearly four years ago due to disuse. Today, any time she pops up and says anything, she's immediately set upon by the likes of Ballenger like a flock of crows.

I wouldn't read too deeply into these things, at least right now. The GOP victories Tuesday were less referendums about the president, and more referendums on poorly run campaigns. The vibe I got from the Griffin campaign here in Michigan, at least, was "Vote Griffin because you've got nothing better to do with your time."

As for the distaste for higher taxes ... I assume that's also true, but again to a point. I very much doubt that any regular people will really sign off on the impact of state budget cuts that have yet to take effect. My guess also is that there is a good deal less appetite for not raising taxes, and more appetite for not raising taxes and handing it over to the crowd in Lansing. I think if someone were to make a case to the people of Michigan -- bring forth a package that balanced the budget, spread the pain, funded things people think are important, did it all in a way that encourages government efficiency, and -- most important of all -- did it in a way that suggested that things were solved for the time being, I think you'd find that people would be a good deal more open to something like that.

Meanwhile, somewhere, Nolan Finley shouts at a wall.

Michigan economy doomed by Ohio casino vote!

Eric B. — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 16:51:40 GMT

If I would have had money to donate to one political campaign this year, it would have been in favor of the Ohio proposal to allow casinos to be built in that state's biggest cities. My thinking on this is, "They're welcome to them. In fact, if they want Michigan's casinos, they can have those, too."

There was a guy I knew in college who used to go to the Soaring Eagle Casino & Resort before it was the Soaring Eagle Casino & Resort. He blew a lot of money there, too. In fact, he blew so much money there that he was given as a consolation prize a framed picture of a Native American chief in full head dress standing in what I can only describe as Sun Salutation, step two. From what I heard, you too could get one of these framed photos if you were willing to fork over to the Tribe the tidy sum of $5,000 (and this was in 1992 dollars).

I don't have a personal objection to casinos, you understand, in the same way that I don't object to people drinking, smoking, doing drugs, or consorting with women of ill repute. I'm not ammoral, just indifferent, and if people want to spend their money sitting in front of a slot machine, slowing letting their skin and hair turn an ashen grey and watching their life savings slowly drain away ... well, life is filled with many such minefields.

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I do draw a line when we talk about embracing such behavior as a form or economic development. Before we go further, I should probably point out to anyone not already familiar that I live in a town that about a decade and a half ago embraced economic development on the backs of a casino. Well, it wasn't really the town, but the local tribe of Native Americans.

I don't begrudge them the success or resources that the Soaring Eagle has brought to town, although it has brought to town just as many problems. I can't find it right now, and I have no intention of digging any further to do so, but a couple of years ago, the Lansing State Journal's John Schneider wrote one of those "I help the little guy" columns about how the Isabella County prosecutor was busting a little guy from Lansing who'd come to the Soaring Eagle, found $20 worth of credits in a slot machine, and played them. As it turns out, the $20 belonged to a retiree couple who'd walked away from the machine and realized what they'd done a few minutes later. I should probably point out further that the guy who took the $20 in credits had watched the retirees walk away from the machine and waited until he thought they weren't going to come back, and then played their credits. When the couple did, in fact, come back, he refused to give them any money, and that's when casino security brought the local prosecutor into the mix. This kind of event, you see, is a fairly common one. (The case ended when the defense attorney engaged the age-old yet never codified "Finders keepers, losers weepers" play, which ultimately won the day.)

This is what economic development by casino amounts to ... bringing money to the community off the worst in people's behavior. You build a casino in your town to help keep the roads paved, and what you're saying is this ... "Part of our plan for economic development involves stealing money from old people." That's as much of an iron-clad truth as you're going to get from anyone today.

We used to be an economy that made things, things to be proud of. Now, part of our hopes are to be an economy that encourages theft in pursuit of dead and hopeless dreams. If you don't cash in your chips when you're up, the House will catch you. It's a hopeless dream, and if Ohio wants to pursue it, I say we wave them a white hankie and say, "Good luck with that."

The "conservative" shiv in Mike Cox's back

Eric B. — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 07:32:16 GMT

I was listening to this week's Two Joes podcast when they were talking about a certain postcard mailed out and in which it was discussed why anyone would question the conservative credentials of Mike Cox, and I thought, "Wait a second, I've heard this before!"

It was just a few years ago that I noted in a column for our local paper that I thought that Cox's campaign to force deadbeat dads to get themselves caught up with child support was a good thing. I should probably note that this is a very personal thing for me -- I'm a never-married father of one who has turned down opportunities to move to and work in other towns because they ultimately strike me as putting money before parental responsibilities -- and I tend to think that Cox was on to something good with this. At the time, I was vaguely aware that there was a backlash among a certain brand of conservatives angry with Cox for doing this.

As can be expected, I heard from these people. And, they were from all around Michigan. Who were they? The one that stands out was a fellow who complained about being required to spend $200,000 of a million dollar a year salary to take care of kids his ex-wife had custody of. I mean, this person actually thought that this was an argument that a serious, responsible adult makes.

There are a lot of gripes I have with the current attorney general, but this is not one of them. And, I don't mean to give the guy cover for various other things that may yet undo his run at governor. To the extent that there is a "Mike Cox is a RINO" movement among conservatives, however, much of it is heat generated by deadbeat dads who resent him for using his office to require overgrown adolescents to live up to their responsibilities and by way of court-ordered fiat to act like men.

Peter Bratt on Two Joes

Eric B. — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 06:55:29 GMT

This week's special guest on the Two Joes podcast is Peter Bratt, who's blogged here and also blogs pretty heavily at West Michigan Rising. Together, there is some breakdown of Tuesday's Senate special election seat. They discuss the impact of the labor endorsements, and whether the base constituencies were that important. That leads them into next year's Senate races.

Oh yeah, my man Chetly was on, too. They discuss that postcard that went out to Michigan GOP leaders.

Finally, they report a rumor that Rick Michigan's campaign manager was fired.

Probably, and this is just my opinion, it's probably their best podcast yet.

Detroit Election Post-Mortem

Grebner — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 02:57:48 GMT

It's time to award our pollster prizes, looking at the eighteen candidates for Detroit City Council:

VOTES PPC EPIC-MRA PUCK

1 Charles Pugh   88,704   2 3 15
2 Gary Brown   80,698   1 1 13
3 Saunteel Jenkins     74,918   5 4 11
4 Ken Cockrel Jr.     74,680   4 2 14
5   Brenda Jones   61,294 9 5 12
6   Andre L. Spivey   60,382   12 14 5
7 James Tate   58,146   10 13 6
8 Kwame Kenyatta   57,482   3 6 10
9 Jo Ann Watson   54,602   11 9 9
10 Lisa Howze 48,414   8 8 1
11 Alberta Tinsley-Talabi 46,960   15 7 7
12 Jai-Lee Dearing 45,753   14 17 8
13 John K. Bennett 35,576   6 10 16
14 Shelley I. Foy 35,123 7 12 4
15 Mohamed Okdie 32,905 16 15 18
16 Fred Elliott Hall 32,825 13 11 3
17 Raphael B. Johnson 31,631 17 16 2
18 David J. Cross 21,502   18 18 17

Sum Square Rank Errors: 228 198 1157

Spearman r .76 .80 -.19

The first conclusion is that EPIC-MRA won the bake-off, by a small but real, margin. We both got the top five and bottom four right, but the middle nine were a jumbled mess. For some reason, Pugh's bad press had a stronger effect on what the voters said to pollsters than on their actual votes.

The Spearman r is similar to the common Pearson correlation coefficient, but is calculated by looking at the rank order, rather than the actual quantities. In other words, Spearman looks at who finished first, second, third... without worrying how wide the margins were. It's a handy statistical "pocket tool", easy enough to calculate using pen and paper.

First, we add up the squared difference in ranks -Pugh was #1, but I ranked him #2, so he contributes 1-squared or "1" to the total. Going through the whole list the sum of the squared errors is 228. We compare that to ((18*18)-1 ) * 18/6 or 969. (The "18" is the number of items being ranked, the "6" is a constant that always appears in calculating Spearman's r.) We subtract 228/969 from one to get 0.76.

If my ranking was exactly the same as the election result, my squared error would have been zero, compared to 969, giving me a correlation coefficient of 1.00. If my ranks had been chosen by rolling dice, the average squared error would have been 969, so the correlation would have averaged 0.00. Poor Puck had bad luck and produced results that were actually worse than random. (To be fair, he is a dog.)

The standard error for 18 ranks is approximately 1/sqrt(18) or 0.24, which warns us that small differences may not mean anything.

Second, we conclude the apparently fraudulent Barrow poll, showing him with a huge lead, really was fraudulent. My tiny-sample poll, showing Bing winning 58-42% turned out to be exactly correct. (Blind luck.)

Third, I won my bet with Yvette248, who figured Ken Cockrel would be able to hang onto the city council presidency. As things turned out, even if Pugh's personal finance problems had sunk him, it wouldn't have helped Ken - there were other, less controversial candidates, who moved ahead of him.

Fourth, if you've got multiple polls, don't ask "which one is correct?". Take their average - weighted, if one is more recent or has a larger sample size - and you're likely to come closer to the actual election result. In this case, if you used the average of my rank and EPIC-MRA's, your correlation with the final result would have been 0.85 - a substantial improvement. (I left Puck out - I'm afraid his methodology was too unconventional for me.)

FireDogLake publishes names of Stupak donor PACS

Eric B. — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 19:18:19 GMT

Jane Hamsher at FireDogLake posts a lists of corporate PAC donors to Bart Stupak and wonders aloud what they might think of his abortion-related activism as regards healthcare reform.

If Planned Parenthood and NARAL are just going to lie down and let access to reproductive health legislation to be written by Catholic bishops, I guess they think that’s in the best interest of the women who donate to their respective organizations.
But I wonder if Bart Stupak’s donors want to be associated with his anti-choice activism? Many PACS that donated to Stupak this year have a pretty heavy investment in consumer branding that appeals to women:
...

She goes on to name them and then to suggest in a very soft way that people may wish to inquire as to whether those particular companies wish to be associated with Stupak's position.

Stupak amendment to get floor vote

Eric B. — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 17:38:48 GMT

Bart Stupak's amendment to prohibit federal-funded abortion to be part of health care reform is going to get a vote on the House of Representatives. An overall vote is expected sometime before dawn tomorrow. Stupak in the past has said that as long as he gets a vote on abortion (which he is likely to win), he will probably vote for the overall health care reform bill. Rumor is that Stupak would be one of 10 pro-Life Dems who have made such a promise to Nancy Pelosi.

More commentary on Stupak here.