http://www.meamonitor.com Middle East & Africa Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor International en Copyright 2009, Business Monitor International Ltd Thu, 05 Nov 2009 06:30 GMT Thu, 05 Nov 2009 06:30 GMT AFP RSS Generator MiddleEastAfricaMonitorRssFeedhttp://feedburner.google.com We expect the central bank to hold the dinar steady at around IQD1,170/US$ over the next five years. However, if oil exports disappoint and the large current account surpluses that we forecast do not materialise, or if inflation returns as a serious problem, the monetary authorities could be forced to abandon this de facto peg. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/83429/Dinars-Dollar-Peg-To-Hold.html Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:00 GMT We expect the central bank to hold the dinar steady at around IQD1,170/US$ over the next five years. However, if oil exports disappoint and the large current account surpluses that we forecast do not materialise, or if inflation returns as a serious problem, the monetary authorities could be forced to abandon this de facto peg. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/83418/Dinars-Dollar-Peg-To-Hold.html Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:00 GMT We expect the central bank to hold the dinar steady at around IQD1,170/US$ over the next five years. However, if oil exports disappoint and the large current account surpluses that we forecast do not materialise, or if inflation returns as a serious problem, the monetary authorities could be forced to abandon this de facto peg. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/83406/Dinars-Dollar-Peg-To-Hold.html Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:00 GMT BMI View: Saudi Arabia's oil and outward foreign investment policies are crucial to the global economy, with a divergence from our core scenario posing risks to both political and economic stability. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/83308/Three-Oil-Scenarios-For-2010:-Domestic-And-Global-Implications.html Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:00 GMT The East African Community (EAC) has found consensus on the draft EAC Common Protocol after agreeing to leave two contentious issues out of the agreement. Tanzania has long had objections over the granting of permanent residency to and ownership of land by nationals of fellow EAC members, believing that Kenyan jobseekers and land buyers will flood into Tanzania to the detriment of Tanzanians, should free access be granted. The members agreed that residency and land ownership laws would be dictated by individual national laws, allowing Tanzania to maintain control over employment and land http://www.meamonitor.com/file/83297/EAC-Deal-Agreed.html Sun, 01 Nov 2009 00:00 GMT When Iran met with the P5+1 group of world powers (the US, UK, France, China, Russia and Germany) in Geneva on October 1, it looked as if major progress in the ongoing standoff over the former's nuclear programme was about to be made. These hopes now look dashed. Indeed, Iran has apparently demanded important changes to a UN-drafted nuclear fuel deal, which effectively amounts to a rejection of the proposal. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/83219/Nuclear-Fuel-Deal-About-To-Collapse.html Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT According to figures from the central bank of Namibia (BoN), the current account surplus widened in Q209 to NAD528mn, up from NAD368mn in Q109. The increase was due primarily to higher net current transfers, while a slowdown in outflows of portfolio and other short-term investments resulted in a narrowing of the financial account deficit. Although the BoN's release did not specify the size of the financial account deficit, one can infer from the decline in reserves (from 13.8bn to 13.0bn) that it was approximately NAD600mn. This is consistent with the BoN's statement that the overall balance of payments recorded a deficit in Q209. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/83213/Current-Account-Remains-In-Surplus.html Wed, 28 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT In an effort to breathe new life into Angola's once-vibrant agricultural sector, Brazil's Odebrecht has unveiled plans to invest US$220mn in the production of sugar and ethanol. The proposed project, structured as a joint venture between Odebrecht, state-owned oil company Sonangol , and private firm Daimer , will farm sugarcane on 30,000 hectares of land in the Malange province. It will also require the construction of a large-scale processing plant, capable of producing 260,000 tonnes of sugar and 30mn litres of ethanol per year. According to the project's backers, it will help Angola reduce its dependence on oil by rebuilding some of the industries destroyed in its 27-year civil war. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/83210/Agricultural-Investment-To-Help-Diversify-Economy.html Wed, 28 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT In a report released on October 20, the UN condemned what it described as wave of violence and rape in the province of South Kivu province, located along the Rwandan border. According to a spokeswoman for the UN Office for the Coordination of Human Affairs, at least 5,387 cases of rape have been reported in the first six months of 2009. In its report, the UN linked the pattern of growing human rights abuses to the launch of the Congolese army's campaign against Hutu refugees in Kivu known as Kimia II. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/83209/UN-Condemns-Climate-Of-Madness-In-Kivu.html Mon, 26 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT South Africa continues to be blighted by industrial unrest. On October 23, the Solidarity trade union rejected a 7.5% pay rise offer put forward by the world's third-largest platinum producer, Lonmin, and stuck to its demand for a 10% increase. This followed the National Union of Mineworkers' rejection of a 6.5% pay rise offer from Lonmin on October 20, during separate negotiations. More positively, Solidarity said that it had reached an agreement for a 9.0% pay rise with Northam Platinum - a unit of Mvelaphanda Resources. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/83044/Industrial-Unrest-Continues.html Wed, 28 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT Opposition UPND leader Hakainde Hichilema has upbraided President Rupiah Banda for having failed to discipline Energy Minister Kenneth Konga over the fuel crisis, accusing the president of corruption in meddling in the fuel contracts that led to the crisis in October. Banda made an official apology for the crisis. No evidence has emerged to confirm these allegations, but corruption remains a major problem in the country. A large investigation is currently underway into the embezzlement of ZMK27bn (around US$5.5mn) at the Ministry of Health. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/83035/Banda-Accused-Over-Fuel-Crisis.html Wed, 28 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT Despite the nascent recovery of the mining sector, we hold to our view that the Namibia will experience a contraction of 2.2% y-o-y in 2009. In line with the global recovery, we expect growth to rebound to 3.4% in 2010, led by rising demand for Namibia's key commodity exports, namely diamonds http://www.meamonitor.com/file/83027/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Namibia.html Wed, 28 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT BMI View: We expect the political deadlock in Madagascar to continue for some time to come, following former president Marc Ravalomanana's boycott of the mid-October power-sharing talks. However, should President Rajoelina agree not to contest the 2010 elections, we see scope for accelerated political reconciliation. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/83018/Political-Stalemate-To-Prevail.html Wed, 28 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT Despite the recent rise in oil prices, we maintain our view that Angola will experience a contraction of 0.8% in 2009. However, we expect the economy to stage a strong recovery in 2010 on the back of rising private investment and an improved outlook for the oil economy. Our current real GDP growth forecast for 2010 is 7.4%. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/83015/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Angola.html Wed, 28 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT Recently released balance of payments statistics show that goods imports and exports contracted by 23.1% y-o-y and 11.7% y-o-y respectively in H109. This supports our view that Jordan's current account deficit will narrow considerably in 2009. We forecast it to come in at 7.2% of GDP in 2009, down from 11.3% in 2008. As the global economy recovers and trade picks up, we see the current account deficit rising to around 10% of GDP in both 2010 and 2011. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/83008/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Jordan.html Thu, 22 Oct 2009 00:00 GMT