http://www.meamonitor.com Middle East & Africa Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor International en Copyright 2013, Business Monitor International Ltd Sat, 14 Sep 2013 06:30 GMT Sat, 14 Sep 2013 06:30 GMT AFP RSS Generator We forecast Syria's economy to contract 10.9% and 2.3% in real terms in 2013 and 2014, respectively, from our estimate of a 11.1% decline in 2012. With the civil war in the country set to continue over the coming years, Syria's economy will remain in a dire state, with private consumption, fixed investment and exports being hit particularly hard. To be sure, only a pronounced fall in imports will avoid a more dramatic drop in the headline growth figure. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/164881/Recession-Dragging-Into-2014.html Fri, 17 May 2013 00:00 GMT Cameroon has long benefitted from stable price growth, with headline inflation seldom surpassing 3.0% year-on-year since mid-2009. We expect this trend to continue, with inflation averaging 2.5% y-o-y in both 2013 and 2014. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/163327/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Cameroon.html Mon, 22 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki decided in July to extend the state of emergency, which was declared after the overthrow of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011, by three months. The three-month extension will start retroactively from July 3. The state of emergency provides extra powers to the army to facilitate containing radical Islamist militants. In a separate development, Tunisian army chief Rachid Ammar resigned on June 24 amid rising political tension over the country's transition to democracy. While we remain relatively optimistic on the prospects for Tunisia's transition to democracy, political risks will remain elevated over the coming quarters. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/163328/Tunisia.html Mon, 22 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT Abubakar Shekau, one of the leaders of Nigerian Islamist militant group Boko Haram, has denied claims by the Nigerian minister of special duties, Kabiru Turaki, that the group has entered into a ceasefire agreement with the government. Shekau also denied that it endorsed an attack on a school in Yobe state in the week ended July 6 that killed 20 students and a teacher. Turaki had claimed that the government and Boko Haram entered into a ceasefire agreement on July 8 following talks with the group's deputy leader, Mohammed Marwan. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/163326/Nigeria.html Mon, 22 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT BMI View: Unemployment in Morocco reached 9.4% during Q113, up from 8.7% in Q412, according to official data from the country’s planning agency. Unemployment amongst the younger segments of the population remains particularly high, with national rates of 19.5% and 13.5% for those aged 15-24 and 25-34 respectively. Moroccans with university degrees fare worse than the rest, with an unemployment rate of 16.5% against 4.7% for those without a degree. As the recently published annual report by the Moroccan Central Bank makes clear, the labour market saw a significant deterioration in 2012, posting zero net job creation, a first since 1999. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/163324/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Morocco.html Fri, 19 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT Notwithstanding concerns over the official GDP data, we note several encouraging trends in the Ghanaian economy, and maintain our outlook for buoyant economic activity. We forecast that Ghana will remain a regional and global outperformer thanks to the oil boom. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/163325/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Ghana.html Mon, 22 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil production in Libya averaged 1.38mn barrels per day (b/d) in May, a 2.8% y-o-y decline. Base effects and elevated security risks will ensure that production slows significantly in 2013 and 2014. In particular, we expect protests by militias and other disaffected groups to continue targeting the oil sector, given growing realisation that such activities will garner attention given its importance to the Libyan economy. We forecast net hydrocarbon exports declining 1.0% in 2013 and increasing 0.3% in 2014, compared to a 287.5% expansion in 2012. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/163323/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Libya.html Mon, 22 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT Thanks to continued robust growth in the non-oil sector, particularly in construction, telecoms, and wholesale and retail trade, we expect that Nigeria will continue to experience robust economic growth in the years ahead. We are forecasting real GDP expansion of 6.7% in 2013, which we believe will accelerate to 7.2% in 2014. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/163321/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Nigeria.html Mon, 22 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT Nouri Abusahmen, a man of Berber origins, was elected as president of Libya's national assembly in June. Abusahmen secured 96 of the total 184 votes cast during the second round of voting. The new president is likely to play a significant role in drafting a new constitution. Given his business background and strong business connections, his elections bodes well for the medium term prospects for foreign investment in the North African country. Moreover, Abusahmen's ethnicity is significant, as the rights of the people of Berber origin were denied during the rule of former leader Muammar Gaddafi. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/163322/Libya.html Mon, 22 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT Following the latest reports, which indicate that the Gulf of Guinea has become the world's hotspot for attacks by pirates, President Paul Biya met with the leaders from neighbouring nations late in June to discuss ways to address the problem. Stating that there can be no development for the countries affected until peace is assured, he called on greater cooperation among nations in the region. Apart from piracy, Biya noted the need to tackle other maritime crime, including robbery, drug trafficking and arms dealing. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/163320/Cameroon.html Mon, 22 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT Consumer price inflation (CPI) came in at 3.4% y-o-y in the city of Algiers in May, compared to average inflation of 8.9% in 2012, with prices having declining 0.7% in month-on-month terms. While we believe that the ongoing decline in the headline print will mitigate over the coming quarters, we believe that it will remain lower this year compared to the previous. We forecast CPI averaging 5.9% and 6.4% in 2013 and 2014, respectively, from 8.9% in 2012. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/163318/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Algeria.html Mon, 22 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT A crackdown on illegal mining in Ghana has led to the arrest of over 1,600 people since the beginning of June. Ghana's Minister of Lands and Natural Resources Inusah Fuseini stated that 1,568 of those arrested were foreigners, with many being deported. The inter-ministerial group, tasked with cleaning up the mining industry, is said to be committed to pursuing any further illegal operations. The crackdown is straining bilateral relations with China, where the majority of miners hail from, but we nevertheless expect investment from China to remain strong over the medium term. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/163319/Ghana.html Mon, 22 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT A Moroccan court has sentenced Abdelhanine Benallou, the former head of the country's airport authority, to five years in prison on charges of corruption. The court also sentenced eight others along with Benallou on July 11. The defendants were accused of fraud and abuse of power. Morocco has struggled with endemic corruption for years, despite pledges by the ruling Justice and Development party to address the issue. The country dropped eight places in Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index for 2012, falling to 88 out of 176 countries rated. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/163317/Morocco.html Fri, 19 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT Total reserves minus gold in Tunisia came in at US$6.6bnin May, accounting for approximately 2.9 months of imports. Although the country will likely avoid a balance of payment crisis this year as a result of the high projected inflow of foreign aid, foreign reserves will remain low. We project total reserves minus gold coming in at US$7.0bn at end-2012, a 1.0% y-o-y increase. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/163315/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Tunisia.html Mon, 22 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT Three opposition Algerian lslamist parties - the Movement for the Society of Peace, the Islamic Renaissance Movement and the Movement for National Reform - agreed in July on naming one candidate to run in the next presidential elections, which will be held in April 2014. Although such parties, united in the so-called Green Algeria Alliance, could gather a significant amount of votes, we believe that a candidate supported by the ruling National Liberation Front will win next presidential election. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/163316/Algeria.html Mon, 22 Jul 2013 00:00 GMT