http://www.meamonitor.com Middle East & Africa Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor International en Copyright 2009, Business Monitor International Ltd Thu, 09 Jul 2009 06:30 GMT Thu, 09 Jul 2009 06:30 GMT AFP RSS Generator MiddleEastAfricaMonitorRssFeedhttp://feedburner.google.com The central government's fiscal deficit is set to widen this year, as lower global oil prices take their toll. The country's 'rainy day' oil fund could already be empty and Tehran appears to be attempting to finance itself through speeding up the privatisation process, although we are sceptical that this will provide the magic bullet the government is looking for. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79224/Privatisations-Will-Not-Drag-Government-Out-Of-Fiscal-Hole.html Tue, 07 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT BMI View: Never the most prudent of spenders, the Egyptian government will maintain an expansionary approach over the coming years, as concerns over political stability and economic growth take priority. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79223/Spend-Spend-Spend:-Domestic-Debt-To-Increase.html Tue, 07 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT The boom then bust then reflation of the commodity complex has had a mixed effect on trade balances in sub-Saharan Africa. While all countries have benefitted from smaller energy bills as oil collapsed, the effect on the oil exporters has been severe. Similarly for those countries dependent on base metals and diamonds. With softs having held up better, many agricultural commodity exporters have seen a slowdown in the widening of their trade deficits, if not a gradual narrowing. As commodity prices improve over 2009 and 2010, trade deficits could begin to show signs of improvement. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79144/Diverging-Trade-Dynamics.html Fri, 26 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT We maintain our forecast of a fiscal deficit of 1.5% of GDP in 2009, followed by a small surplus of 0.2% and 0.4% in 2010 and 2011, respectively. The combination of lower oil prices and slowing oil production will weigh on public finances over the medium term. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79145/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Gabon.html Tue, 30 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT In its first borrowing in 17 years from the African Development Bank (AfDB), Botswana has secured a budget-support loan of US$1.5bn to plug the hole created by the collapse in diamond revenues. With the economy expected to contract by 9.9% in 2009/10, we see the budget deficit exceeding both the government's and the AfDB's expectations, to come in at 16.1% of GDP http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79141/Landmark-Support-From-AfDB.html Thu, 04 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT Despite the South African Reserve Bank (SARB)'s decision to keep interest rates on hold, we still believe there is scope for a further 50bps cut in H209. While recognising considerable risks to this view, a weak Q209 real GDP growth number could compel the central bank to lower borrowing costs once more. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79142/Monetary-Easing:-Pausing-But-Not-Stopping.html Fri, 26 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT For the first time since January 2008, and the second time in many years, Uganda posted a monthly trade surplus in April 2009, of US$37.8mn. Exports jumped in March and April, while imports fell significantly in April. Despite this favourable set of trade data, the full-year trade deficit for 2008/09 still looks as if it will come in at close to BMI's forecast of US$1.1bn. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79143/Surprise-Monthly-Trade-Surplus.html Wed, 24 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT BMI View: What figures are available suggest that Saudi attempts to keep growth afloat through fiscal stimulus are working, and with higher oil prices, our relatively sanguine view looks reasonable. However, the financial crisis of the last month or so threatens to derail an otherwise solid performance. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79140/Saad-Gosaibi-Crisis-To-Delay-Lending-Recovery.html Tue, 23 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT In addition, the government has just announced a record new budget of EGP329bn (US$57bn), which may also be inflationary. Just under 19% of the new budget, which envisages a deficit of EGP98.9bn (8.4% of GDP according to government estimates), is slated for maintaining food and fuel subsidies, which in theory will keep prices under control. However, the injection of liquidity into the economy may keep demand (and therefore prices) artificially higher than they would be in an economic slowdown. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79138/No-More-Rate-Cuts--For-Now.html Fri, 26 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT The Lebanese BLOM Stock Index has responded well to the election result, and bypassed the correction that hit stocks elsewhere in the region, hitting a new 8-month high of 1,475 on July 2. With regards to the rest of the region, we remain somewhat cautious for now, but Lebanon is one of the few markets in the world which is not simply following the Dow Jones and global sentiment. It has typically been influenced more by domestic politics and reform prospects, and as such, with the moderate, pro-market Saad al-Hariri now approved as prime minister, could be set for further http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79139/What-Will-The-Hariri-Government-Look-Like.html Fri, 03 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT President Omar Bongo, who ruled Gabon continuously for 41 years, died of a heart attack on June 8 at a clinic in Barcelona. The president had taken a temporary leave of office on May 7 2009 to mourn the death of his wife, and then flown to Europe, where it was rumoured he was seeking medical attention. His death was initially reported on June 7, but this report was denied by the government. Bongo's death was subsequently confirmed on June 8, ending the rule of one of Africa's longest-serving heads of state. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79045/Past-Its-Peak.html Wed, 01 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT We believe the ruling Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG) is likely to win the next presidential elections, with internal party rivalries presenting the greatest risk to that view. While an outbreak of wide-spread violence could lead to capital flight from current international investors, the threat of civil strive, which has the power to undermine central government stability, appears to be limited at the present moment. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79046/PDG-In-The-Drivers-Seat.html Wed, 01 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT The Kenyan government plans to assess the prospects for a Eurobond over the coming months. Although the 2009/10 budget does not explicitly include plans for a sovereign bond, the finance ministry's medium-term outlook said that 'the government will reassess the situation in the international capital market in the course of the financial year with a view of accessing it if circumstances permit'. The receipt of finance would help to shore up macroeconomic stability, albeit increasing the nation's stock of total external debt. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79042/Eurobond-Ahead.html Wed, 01 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT The Sudanese authorities have ended a government monopoly on the production and trade of gum arabic, an edible product used in soft drinks, cosmetic creams and adhesives. Sudan is the world's leading producer of the good. Agricultural officials hope that the initiative will allow private businesses to buy and export the product as well as encourage the use of marketing specialists to help boost earnings. The biggest buyers of gum arabic are France and the US, neither of which impose sanctions on that particular product, despite applying sanctions on a range of Sudanese goods. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79043/Gum-Arabic-Opportunity.html Wed, 01 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT Jean-Pierre Bemba, the former vice-president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, will face trial in the International Criminal Court (ICC) over charges of war crimes. The court has accused the former leader of being responsible for the murders, rapes and pillaging committed by his rebel troops in the Central African Republic in 2002 and 2003. Despite the relatively high media profile of the cases against Bemba and former prominent DRC rebel leaders at the ICC, they appear to provide no deterrent for small-scale rebel groups to stop human rights abuses in the Eastern parts of the DRC, where militant activity http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79044/Avoiding-Recession.html Wed, 01 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT