http://www.meamonitor.com Middle East & Africa Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor International en Copyright 2013, Business Monitor International Ltd Fri, 24 May 2013 06:30 GMT Fri, 24 May 2013 06:30 GMT AFP RSS Generator MiddleEastAfricaMonitorRssFeedhttp://feedburner.google.com Sheikh Abdul Latif Abdul Aziz al-Sheikh, the head of Saudi Arabia's religious police, warned residents in May against the use of social media sites, especially Twitter. He stated that anyone using them would have 'lost this world and his afterlife'. The remark from the religious police echoes those made by the inam of the Grand Mosque in Mecca in April, who warned that Twitter was a threat to national unity. They highlight the Saudi authorities' rising concern over the use of social media to discuss sensitive political and social issues. Saudi Arabia is believed to have experienced one of the world's fastest growth in Twitter users over the last few years. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/160778/Saudi-Arabia.html Thu, 23 May 2013 00:00 GMT We are forecasting that the Tanzanian economy will grow by 7.1% y-o-y in 2013 up from an estimated 7.0% in 2012 driven by robust private consumption and investment. The main risk stems from the possibility that inflation remains higher than we currently anticipate. Over the longer term we are also keeping an eye on the possibility that rising discontent amongst ordinary Tanzanians leads to a deterioration of the investment climate. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/160779/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Tanzania.html Thu, 23 May 2013 00:00 GMT Khartoum has accused authorities in neighbouring South Sudan of aiding rebels in Sudan. The accusations have dented hopes that relations between the perennial foes were thawing following the opening of border posts and a visit by Sudanese President Omar Al Bashir to South Sudan in April. Adding to the sense that friction was re-emerging were reports as we went to print that there had been disruptions to oil exports which flow from South Sudan to an export terminal in the north. Oil exports were only recommenced in March after having been shut for several months due to friction between the two countries. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/160776/Sudan.html Thu, 23 May 2013 00:00 GMT Notwithstanding concerns over the official GDP data, we note several encouraging trends in the Ghanaian economy, and maintain our outlook for buoyant economic activity. We forecast that Ghana will remain a regional and global outperformer thanks to the oil boom, with the economy growing by 8.5% in 2013 and 7.1% in 2014 in real terms. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/160777/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Ghana.html Thu, 23 May 2013 00:00 GMT We forecast that the Bank of Ghana's Monetary Policy Committee will hike rates by a further 100bps in the second half of the year, following the 100bps increase on May 22. Our view is predicated on inflation remaining elevated and the cedi continuing to sell off. That said, we recognise that the economic outlook is uncertain, and this poses risks to our view. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/160775/Further-Rate-Hike-On-The-Cards.html Thu, 23 May 2013 00:00 GMT Bahrain's main opposition group and representative of the country's majority Shi'a population, Al Wefaq, suspended its participation in national reconciliation talks with the government for two weeks on May 22. The opposition blamed the slow pace of the talks, as well as a raid by security forces on May 17 on a top Shi'a cleric's home. This is in the line with our view that Bahrain's political deadlock will continue until the opposition gains sufficient momentum to force the government into concessions, or increased Saudi intervention in favour of reform tilts the scales towards a more accommodative stance from the government. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/160773/Bahrain.html Thu, 23 May 2013 00:00 GMT Police raided the offices of a leading newspaper in Uganda following its publication of a letter which alleges that President Yoweri Museveni plotted to silence critics of a purported plan to hand over power to his son Kainerugaba Muhoozi. Police disabled the company's printing press, shutdown its website and radio stations, and allegedly instructed the power company to shut off power. The move will cause consternation regarding Uganda's democratisation, particularly in light of other alleged recent abuses, including proposed legislation which would outlaw miniskirts and some Western broadcasts deemed risqué. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/160774/Uganda.html Thu, 23 May 2013 00:00 GMT Despite having the third largest population in Sub-Saharan Africa, the DRC's economy remains small even by comparison with its African peers. BMI forecasts that the DRC's nominal GDP will reach US$21.3bn in 2013, the 14th largest in Sub-Saharan Africa. This places the country of over 70mn people behind far less populous states such as Zambia, Côte d'Ivoire, and Uganda. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/160771/Macroeconomic-Forecast-DRC-Macroeconomic-Forecast.html Thu, 23 May 2013 00:00 GMT BMI View: According to recently released data from the Central Informatics Organisation, real GDP growth stood at 3.4% in 2012, up from 1.9% in 2011. Much of the growth in the first half of the year came in the form of a rebound from the slowdown seen in H111, when economic activity was significantly disrupted by the outbreak of anti-government protests. Due to the disruptions in the Abu Safa field (shared equally with Saudi Arabia), output in the hydrocarbon sector contracted by 8.5% y-o-y in real terms over 2012. We forecast real GDP growth of 3.7% this year and 3.2% in 2014. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/160772/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Bahrain.html Thu, 23 May 2013 00:00 GMT Istiqlal, Morocco's second-largest political party, withdrew from the ruling coalition on May 11, leaving Prime Minister Abdelilah Benkirane with a minority in parliament. Under the country's constitution, King Mohammed VI must now decide whether to ask the governing Party of Justice and Development (PJD) to form a new government or hold new parliamentary elections. Istiqlal has six ministers sitting in the current cabinet, most notably Nizar Baraka, minister of Finance and Economy, who has been spearheading economic policy since 2011. We have long warned about rising tensions within Morocco's government: Istiqlal's leader, Hamid Chabat, has been a vocal opponent of Benkirane's economic policy. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/160769/Morocco.html Thu, 23 May 2013 00:00 GMT POLITICAL RISK - Clashes Kill Civilians In Goma Fighting between the M23 rebels and Congolese government forces on the outskirts of Goma has caused several civilian deaths in North Kivu's conflict-prone capital. There was little direct combat, but both sides have deployed mortars and rockets, with several projectiles falling in inhabited areas. M23 briefly occupied Goma in December 2012, but subsequently withdrew to positions surrounding the city as part of a ceasefire agreement. The group's leadership declared a brief ceasefire to allow UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to visit the city, but refused to surrender its positions. Our short-term political risk rating is 25.8 http://www.meamonitor.com/file/160770/Risk-Summary.html Thu, 23 May 2013 00:00 GMT BMI View: Latest data from the Central Department of Statistics (CDoS) shows that consumer price inflation (CPI) in Saudi Arabia rose to 4.0% y-o-y in April, bringing the average for the first four months of the year to 3.9%. The Saudi authorities switched in January to a new inflation index with an expanded goods and services basket and a base year of 2007 (from 1999 previously), and we have adjusted our inflation coverage accordingly. We see inflation averaging 4.1% this year, from 4.5% in 2012, with growth in food prices staying elevated in comparison to the rest of the Gulf. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/160767/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Saudi-Arabia.html Thu, 23 May 2013 00:00 GMT Although Kenya's large current account deficit - we expect the shortfall to reach US$4.5bn or 10.0% of GDP in 2013 - is being covered by the capital and financial account inflows, the fact that these comprise short-term flows and 'errors and omissions' mean that they are inherently unstable and difficult to predict. The country's balance of payments position will therefore remain precarious until there is an increase in longer-term financial account inflows. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/160768/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Kenya.html Thu, 23 May 2013 00:00 GMT Qatar's Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, in a speech in Doha on May 20, slammed what he called 'international inaction' over the Syrian civil war. Over the last few years, Qatar has emerged as a stalwart supporter of the opponents of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, providing funds and arms to the rebels. The Emir visited US President Barack Obama at the White House on April 23, in a visit centred on the Syrian issue. That said, Qatar's steadfast support for the rebels has so far brought it little gains, and we note that the country has been left increasingly entangled in the conflict. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/160766/Qatar.html Thu, 23 May 2013 00:00 GMT Latest data from the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) shows consumer price inflation ticking up to 8.1% y-o-y in April, from 7.6% in March. In month-on-month terms, consumer prices rose 1.5%, up from 0.6% in March. Although a more detailed breakdown of the headline print is not yet available, we believe a combination of higher food prices and ongoing supply bottlenecks in the energy sector have been the biggest culprits behind the acceleration in inflation this month. While a moderation in global food prices in the second half of 2013 will help contain upwards price pressures, we maintain our view that the headline print is heading into the double digits before the end of the http://www.meamonitor.com/file/160764/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Egypt.html Thu, 23 May 2013 00:00 GMT