Middle East Perspectives by Rick Francona

Breaking faith: the CIA and the Pakistani doctor

2012-05-25T17:54:00.002-07:00

Pakistani television reporting of 33-year sentence for Dr. Shakil Afridi It is inexcusable. It is the first and most important lesson case officers are taught at "The Farm"* - you have a moral and professional responsibility to safeguard the security of an asset. Security is the key part of any successful operation - it is the first and last thing you cover with your asset each and every time you meet or communicate. No security means no operation at best, a dead or imprisoned asset at worst. Somewhere in the operation that led to the killing of al-Qa'idah leader Usamah bin Ladin, someone forgot that most basic of concepts. A CIA asset, Pakistani physician Shakil Afridi, has just been sentenced by a Pakistani court to more than 33 years in prison for "conspiring against the state." His crime? Working with American intelligence against bin Ladin. Our crime? Allowing him to get caught....

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Memorial Day 2012

2012-05-25T08:10:00.000-07:00

I wrote this in 2007 while a military analyst at NBC News. With a few word changes, I think it holds true yet today. The original is still available at MSNBC.com. 'On behalf of a grateful nation' Let us make sure that we do not forget our fallen men and women COMMENTARY By Lt. Col. Rick Francona, U.S. Air Force (Retired) Military analyst - MSNBC Lt. Gen. Ed Soriano, left, presents Jessica Hebert, sister of Spc. Justin Hebert who was killed in Kirkuk, Iraq, with an American flag during his military funeral (AP Photo/The Herald, Meggan Booker). Ed and I served together in Desert Storm - this must have been his toughest duty. Memorial Day weekend – most people associate that with the start of the "summer driving season" or a chance to buy appliances on sale. The constant news coverage of still high gasoline prices tends to overshadow the real meaning of the holiday. It is not about...

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"Lockerbie bomber dead" - more questions than answers

2012-05-22T09:30:00.000-07:00

Now that former Libyan intelligence officer 'Abd al-Basit al-Maqrahi, convicted for his involvement in the bombing of Pan Am 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland in 1988, has died, more questions remain about the entire affair. These are my thoughts on the issue. I have a unique perspective on this, having served as an intelligence officer for virtually my entire professional career. There are many holes in the official version of what happened with the downing of the airliner and the deaths of 270 people. Many of my readers are familiar with my skepticism about this case, and know that I am not prone to conspiracy theories. I have excerpted relevant portions of an article I wrote when al-Maqrahi was released from a Scottish prison, ostensibly for health and humanitarian reasons - he was expected to die within 90 days of his release. That was in August 2009. Is Scottish medicine so bad that...

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Syria: Assif Shawkat dead?

2012-05-20T13:31:00.001-07:00

According to claims of the Free Syrian Army, eight senior officials of the Bashar al-Asad regime were killed in Damascus yesterday, including deputy minister of defense Major General Assif Shawkat. In addition to being the deputy minister and fellow 'Alawite, Shawkat sits on Bashar's Crisis Cell. It goes further: Shawkat is also Bashar's brother in law - he is married to Hafiz al-Asad's only daughter Bushrah. See my October 2010 article, Syria - the rise of Asif Shawkat. In that article, I noted that Asif was to be promoted to lieutenant general (in Syrian Arabic, 'imad), but also note that in the current report, he is listed as a major general (liwa'). The Middle East Live blog of the UK's The Guardian newspaper today carried an article titled Syria: Damascus clashes prompt claims of high-level assassinations in which I was quoted: The most interesting move here is the promotion of...

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Syria - we're not even "leading from behind"

2012-05-11T17:07:00.001-07:00

Two bombs killed 55 and wounded over 300 in Damascus (SANA) Despite America's ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice's protestations to the contrary, the Kofi Annan ceasefire plan for Syria has failed. It was doomed to fail from the start - Bashar al-Asad has no reason to step down. He has effectively used his military, intelligence and security forces to suppress the opposition, and is doing so with impunity because he has correctly assessed that foreign military intervention is highly unlikely. The world is watching to see what happens next. Will there be a Libya-style operation to protect Syrian civilians from the military onslaught being waged in several cities? Will a coalition of Arab and Western nations begin to provide effective covert support to the opposition, providing the three things needed for a successful insurgency - money, weapons and training? Or will there be a...

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CIA penetration of al-Qa'idah - how about "need to know?"

2012-05-09T13:11:00.000-07:00

Bombmaker Ibrahim Hasan al-Asiri The news channels are touting the Central Intelligence Agency's recent success in penetrating al-Qa'idah in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and preventing a potential devastating attack on a commercial passenger flight bound for the United States. An agency asset was not only able to stop a bomb plot but fingered one of the key planners of the operation. That is what led to last Sunday's (May 6) drone-launched missile attack on Fahd al-Qus'u. (See my article on that operation, Wanted Al-Qa'idah leader killed in Yemen.) This represents stellar work by the American intelligence service and good news in the war on terrorism - I assume that war is still going on despite Obama Administration claims to the contrary. A disclaimer before I continue - I was a case officer trained by the CIA. Having done this for a living, I know first hand the danger and...

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Wanted Al-Qa'idah leader killed in Yemen

2012-05-07T09:39:00.002-07:00

FBI Wanted Poster - Fahd al-Qus'u - فهد القصع Message to terrorists who kill American service members, diplomats and citizens: It may take years, even a decade or more, but the military and intelligence services of the United States will hunt you down and kill you. In Yemen on Sunday, May 6, an airstrike killed wanted al-Qa'idah leader Fahd Muhammad Ahmad al-Qus'u (also rendered as al-Quso). Al-Qus'u was one on the FBI's Ten Most Wanted Terrorists for his role in the October 12, 2000 attack on the USS Cole while in the port of Aden, Yemen, in which 17 American sailors were killed. Although neither the Yemenis nor the Americans have confirmed that the strike was carried out by an American drone, Al Jazeera reported it as an American attack which killed al-Qus'u and an accompanying al-Qa'idah official, as well as wounding six others. This has all the indicators of an...

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Syria's chemical weapons and the uprising

2012-05-05T13:31:00.000-07:00

Syrian chemical munitions manufacturing facility at al-Safir Despite Kofi Annan's wishful thinking that his cease-fire plan is "on track," the security situation in Syria continues to deteriorate. Many of the world's major powers, including the United States, have called for Syrian President Bashar al-Asad to step down. As this process plays out, there is concern about what might happen to Syria's large stockpile of chemical weapons stored in several locations around the country. The worst case scenario, of course, is that these weapons end up in the hands of a non-state actor such as Hizballah or al-Qa'idah. Technically, Syria is within its rights to have chemical weapons. The country is a signatory of the 1925 Geneva Protocol, which prohibits first use of chemical or biological weapons, but does not prohibit the manufacture or possession of them. More significantly, Syria is not...

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Obama's Night Trip to the War Zone

2012-05-02T00:06:00.000-07:00

President Obama arrives in Afghanistan in the dark I just read a reporter's account of his short trip to Afghanistan with President Barack Obama on Air Force One. Ostensibly, this was a trip to sign a Strategic Partnership Agreement between the United States and Afghanistan, but everyone knows this was merely a "spiking the ball in the end-zone" campaign trip exploiting the one-year anniversary of the killing of Usamah bin Ladin by U.S. Navy SEAL Team Six. To read the reporter's account, this trip was something to be proud of. I look at it in a different way. I am going to use the reporter's own words to demonstrate the absolute hypocrisy of this presidential campaign trip. I won't identify the reporter in case he ever wants to redeem his self respect on a U.S. military installation in the future. Of course, in newsrooms across America, he may be heralded as "journalist." Having spent...

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Egypt: Moussa declares Camp David Accords dead - some context, please

2012-05-01T15:29:00.001-07:00

Amr Moussa campaign poster According to a major Israeli newspaper, Amr Moussa (more properly 'Amru Muhammad Musa - عمرو محمد موسى), possibly the next President of Egypt, has declared the Camp David Accords dead." Haaretz headlined the story, "Leading candidate in Egypt presidential race calls Israel peace accord 'dead and buried'." While he did say that, the headline is a bit misleading and requires some context. For more on Moussa's chances of becoming the next president, see my earlier article, Egypt - the kingmakers speak.... In various speeches over the last few weeks, Moussa chose his words very carefully - after all, he is a professional politician. In his own words, "the Camp David Accords are a historical document whose place is on the shelves of history, as its articles talk about the fact that the aim of the agreement is to establish an independent Palestinian state. This...

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EU luxury sanctions against Syria - is the best you can do?

2012-04-25T19:32:00.001-07:00

Syria's First Lady - Asma al-Asad On April 23, the European Union announced that it would ban the export of luxury goods to Syria as part of new sanctions to punish the regime's continued attacks on its citizens. Are you serious? This is the EU response to the continued Syrian regime's assaults on its own people? This is the best the world can do - cut off Asma al-Asad's access to European fashion and high-end luxury items? Even members of the Syrian opposition find it ridiculous. If it wasn't so serious, it would be funny. These photographs were taken at a demonstration in the city of Kafr Nabal on April 24, a day after the luxury goods sanctions were imposed. Kafr Nabal is located in northern Syria between Hamah and Aleppo (Halab); the area has seen a lot of violence over the last year. The signs both carry the date of 4/24/2012 and the location as "Occupied Kafr Nabal." The sign...

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The President, the Secret Service and me....

2012-04-22T20:02:00.001-07:00

The author in front of Air Force One The recent scandal involving members of the U.S. Secret Service in Colombia brings back memories of the only dealings I have ever had with the agency charged with the protection of the President. In late 1994, I was the Air Attache to the U.S. Embassy in Damascus, Syria. Part of the training for all air attaches is how to handle a presidential visit - the Air Attache is responsible for the arrangements for the presidential aircraft, in most cases a U.S. Air Force VC-25, a modified ultra-VIP version of the Boeing 747. I was excused from this particular training because, as the officer in charge of the presidential visit training asked, "What are the chances that a U.S. president is going to visit Syria?" In his defense, I had to agree with him. I was of the opinion that no sitting American president would conduct a visit to Syria thus lending...

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Chasing Demons - My Hunt for War Criminals in Bosnia

2012-04-20T11:26:00.000-07:00

Although not a Middle East issue, this is my memoir of a five-month mission to hunt down and detain war criminals in Bosnia-Herzegovina. It is available in Kindle format for the next 90 days, then a variety of electronic formats - or now as a PDF file. Click here for more.

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The ICC and Sayf al-Islam al-Qadhafi - not so fast!

2012-04-18T17:17:00.000-07:00

Sayf al-Islam al-Qadhafi before and after the Libyan revolution A legal battle is shaping up between the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the Libyan National Transitional Council over the future of Sayf al-Islam al-Qadhafi*, son of the late Libyan dictator Mu'amar al-Qadhafi. The question is not if he will be put on trial, but where. The ICC wants him extradited to its headquarters in The Hague to face charges of crimes against humanity levied in an ICC indictment of last year. Libya has insisted he should be tried by a Libyan court. The ICC believes it has the authority to try Sayf al-Islam based on United Nations Security Council 1970, which imposed sanctions on the al-Qadhafi regime, gave the ICC jurisdiction over crimes committed in Libya, and required the Libyan government to comply with ICC demands. The two sides are working on a compromise where Sayf al-Islam will be tried...

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Egypt - the kingmakers speak....

2012-04-18T12:01:00.001-07:00

Campaign posters for the three remaining major candidates Ahmad Shafiq - 'Abd al-Muna'im Abu al-Fatuh - 'Amru Musa Egypt's Supreme Presidential Electoral Commission has disqualified 10 candidates from running in the presidential election scheduled for next month. According to the rules in place, there are no further appeals for these former candidates. Three of those rejected were considered front runners: the Muslim Brotherhood's Khayrat al-Shatir, Salafist leader Hazim Abu Isma'il, and former intelligence chief and vice president 'Umar Sulayman.* Of course, there were protests against the move, especially from the Islamists, claiming that the commission is not impartial and sympathizes with the former Mubarak government. There may be some truth to this - the commission was appointed by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), the true arbiters of power...

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UN observers in Syria - don't expect much

2012-04-16T21:28:00.000-07:00

UN observers at the Damascus Sheraton Six military officers that comprise the advance team of what is expected to be as many as 250 United Nations (UN) observers and ceasefire monitors arrived in Damascus and checked in to the Sheraton Hotel. They will enter into a series of meetings with the Syrians to work out how they will move around the country, what access they will have, where they will work, security arrangements for the team, etc. Having been assigned as the air attache at the U.S. Embassy in Damascus and having worked with the Syrian Ministry of Defense foreign liaison office - the office that will likely work with the UN officers - I can safely predict that the six officers are about to learn about Syrian bureaucracy. As with most dictatorships, the regime can get things done quickly when it wants, and can drag its feet interminably when it doesn't. I am putting support to...

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FLASH - Istanbul talks result in agreement to talk!!!

2012-04-14T23:28:00.002-07:00

New York Times story on the historic agreement to talk Yes, I meant the title and caption to be sarcastic. I have wondered over the last few years why Catherine Ashton still has a job. Ashton, more properly Baroness Ashton of Upholland, Her Majesty's Most Honourable Privy Council, is the European Union's High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Given her remarks after this latest waste of time in Istanbul, I am still wondering. It has to be her title, because it sure is not her job performance. What am I talking about? In my two earlier articles concerning the talks between Iran the P5+1 (the permanent member nations of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany), I predicted that the talks would result in an agreement to continue talking, but nothing else. My words, "We'll just continue to talk about having talks...." You can review the...

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Obama, Peres and Pollard - any "flexibility?"

2012-04-10T23:47:00.001-07:00

U.S. President Barack Obama and Israeli President Shimon Peres As many of my readers are aware, I have serious problems with many of the Middle East policies of the Obama Administration. I believe that for the most part, this White House does not have a grasp of the nuances that shape events in the region and that this naivete does not portend well for the future. Like it or not, we must remain the major player in events in the region, if for no other reason than to guarantee the unimpeded flow of oil from the Persian Gulf. That said, when President Barack Obama does the right thing, I believe it incumbent on me to say so. If one criticizes, then one must likewise compliment. On Tuesday (April 10), the Administration did the right thing. It did the right thing in the face of no small amount of political pressure. Numerous Jewish groups in the United States as well as Jewish members of...

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Diplomacy and the Iranian nuclear issue - ADDENDUM

2012-04-04T15:09:00.001-07:00

Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi (Esam Omran/Reuters) A few days ago, I published an article, Diplomacy and the Iranian nuclear issue. In it, I accused the Iranians of playing a delaying game to buy time for their nuclear weapons program. I mentioned that the last round of talks ended when the two sides could not agree on a subject for the talks. The Iranians refused to agree that the talks were to be about their uranium enrichment program - the only reason for holding the talks. This is typical for the Iranians, and a tactic that has served them well for years. It is only recently that Europe and the United States have begun getting serious about effective sanctions, and those are still months away. Now, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi has raised objections to the venue for the talks. They have been scheduled to be in Istanbul for quite some time, but less than ten...

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Diplomacy and the Iranian nuclear issue

2012-04-01T14:41:00.001-07:00

Former Iranian negotiator Hossein Mousavian As the United States considers imposing tougher sanctions on Iran over its refusal to adhere to a series of United Nations resolutions about its uranium enrichment program, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has warned the Iranians that time for a diplomatic solution is fast running out. This is the most succinct warning delivered by the secretary in a long time, and is long overdue. Another round of talks between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany, the so-called "P5+1," is scheduled for mid-April in Istanbul. Most Middle East observers, this one included, believe this is just another stalling tactic on the part of the Iranians, much as they have done for the past several years. The last round of talks ended when the two sides could not agree on a subject for the talks. It's bad enough when...

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Syria agrees to ceasefire - don't hold your breath

2012-03-30T16:16:00.000-07:00

According to pronouncements from the United Nations and Syrian media, Syrian President Bashar al-Asad has agreed to a ceasefire between his armed forces and the opposition, supposedly paving the way for some form of negotiations between the two sides. This alleged ceasefire is part of a deal arranged by none other than former United Nations Secretary General and now chief envoy Kofi Annan, whose past accomplishments at this sort of thing are pretty much nonexistent. The agreement between Annan and al-Asad, announced on March 27 by Annan, includes six points supposedly endorsed by the Syrian president. Annan claims that the agreement includes an "immediate" ceasefire, access for humanitarian organizations to the areas affected by the violence, negotiations that will lead to a multiparty democracy, release of political prisoners and access to Syria by foreign media. Does this sound...

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Libyan militia desecrates WWII cemetery in Benghazi

2012-03-20T22:26:00.000-07:00

The recent desecration of a World War II cemetery in Benghazi, Libya by what appears to be members of an Islamist militia underscores the difficulty in reconciling East and West in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. It also serves as a warning to other Arab countries what can happen when you remove the sitting government, be it good or bad. The video is pretty self explanatory. I have listened to it a few times - my Libyan dialect is not as good as my Syrian/Lebanese, but I'll share with you some interesting excerpts. Mostly they are just egging each other on, yelling things like "Break them, they're Crusaders* and dogs," "God is great," and "Let's start with that cross (the cenotaph)" interspersed with profanity. At about time code 1:00, one militiaman dislodges a headstone inscribed with the Magen David, the Shield of David (often called the Star of David), indicating the grave of a...

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Semantics, politics and Iran's nuclear weapons program

2012-03-19T18:38:00.000-07:00

In the aftermath of the rhetoric delivered by U.S. President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the recent American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) convention and during Netanyahu's visit to Washington, the American and Israeli intelligence agencies are "semanticizing" and politicizing their assessments of Iran's nuclear program so that their two governments appear to be on the same page. It will be interesting to see if the new pronouncements force Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to adjust her previous remarks that are not exactly in line with these positions. I just love it when government spokespersons attempt to tell you one thing when they mean something else. According to an American intelligence official, there is little disagreement between the Israeli Mossad and the U.S. intelligence community. You would not have known that had you been...

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Try an American soldier in an Afghan court - seriously?

2012-03-17T14:35:00.001-07:00

Staff Sergeant Robert Bales, U.S. Army I was contacted yesterday (March 16) by Canadian radio station Newstalk 1010 in Toronto - I have done interviews for them in the past. They wanted to talk to me about the case of Staff Sergeant Robert Bales, the U.S. Army soldier assigned to the 3rd Stryker Brigade Combat Team (2nd Infantry Division) in Afghanistan accused of the murder of 16 Afghan civilians. When the booking producer called, he asked if I was available to talk about the Sergeant Bales case. I initially replied that I had no special knowledge of the case and that it appeared to be pretty straightforward. The sergeant did it, he confessed, was on his way to Fort Leavenworth where he will be tried by court-martial. That's how we do things in the American military. The producer said the two show hosts were interested in my thoughts on why the U.S. does not agree to transferring...

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Planning considerations for military intervention in Syria

2012-03-16T17:04:00.002-07:00

U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle of the 391st Fighter Squadron (366th Fighter Wing) There has been a lot of talk about possible military intervention in Syria. Several U.S. Senators and Representatives have called for the imposition of a no-fly zone and offensive operations to protect civilians from the Syrian armed forces, similar to military operations in Libya a year ago. Over 8,000 civilians and defected soldiers are believed to have been killed by Syrian troops and the government-sponsored militia known as the shabihah. For the purposes of this article, I will not debate the merits of whether or not the United States, NATO or some other combination of countries and their armed forces should intervene. As most of my readers are aware, I lived in Syria for several years while assigned to the American embassy in Damascus. I am troubled by the footage I see in the media. Let's...

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