Middle East Policy

رسالة من مواطن سوري محرر حديثا إلى سلطة سوريا الحرة

2024-12-10T09:14:00.006+00:00

رسالة من مواطن سوري محرر حديثا إلى:

قائد العمليات العسكرية أحمد الشرع

غرفة عمليات ردع العدوان

حكومة الإنقاذ السورية

إدارة الشؤون السياسية

كل من يهمه الأمر

السلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته،

علينا اليوم أن ننتفض بوجه أي عملية تزوير أو تمييع سياسي للحدث السوري العظيم والواقع السياسي الناتج عنه، وذلك دفاعا عن حريتنا ومصلحة سوريا الحرة وطننا. لذلك نوضح للجميع داخل وخارج سوريا أن ما حدث تحديدا هو: 'إنتصار الثورة السورية عسكريا على النظام الحاكم الإرهابي بواسطة الثوار المجاهدين في غرفة عمليات ردع العدوان'. وبالتالي، يصبح القرار الدولي ٢٢٥٤ غير ذي صلة بسبب زوال النظام الحاكم، "الحكومة السورية" في القرار المذكور. وعليه، يتوجب على الأمم المتحدة و'المجتمع الدولي' حل الإئتلاف وتوابعه وهيئة التفاوض فورا لإنتفاء الصفة والوظيفة، حيث يفترض بالواقع والمنطق والفطرة السياسية السليمة والطبيعية أن تستلم السلطة السياسية في سوريا، وتتحمل مسؤوليتها أمام الشعب السوري والمجتمع الدولي، الجهة التي قامت بتحرير البلد للفترة التي اصطلح على كونها إنتقالية حتى إجراء إنتخابات حرة برقابة دولية.

تتمتع هذه السلطة الإنتقالية، من حيث الممارسة، بشرعيتين ثورية ووطنية. تتجلى الشرعية الثورية عبر إلتزامها وتحقيقها مبادئ وأهداف الثورة السورية في الحرية والكرامة والعدالة وهي مشروطة بها. وتحقيق ذلك يستلزم إطلاق الحريات، وإلتزام القوانين الدولية لحقوق الإنسان، وإطلاق الحرب على الفساد (أصل كل الشرور في الدولة)، والعمل على تأسيس مسار للعدالة الإنتقالية للمحاسبة بالتعاون مع الأطراف السورية والدولية. تخطئ أي سلطة حالية أو قادمة في سوريا، أو أي جهة دولية، بأن تتخيل للحظة أننا، الشعب السوري الحر، يمكن أن نتجاوز مبدأي العدالة والمحاسبة تحت أي ظرف كان، ومستعدون لتقديم كل التضحيات اللازمة لذلك (وندعوهم لأن يجربونا في ذلك).

أما الشرعية الوطنية فتتجلى في وظيفة السلطة في تحقيق الأمن بما فيه استكمال التحرير وتأمينه بالإشتراك مع الفصائل الثورية المستقلة والمخلصة، وإستعادة الخدمات وتوفير مناخ الحريات المدنية والسياسية لتهيئة الظروف والأرضية اللازمة لإجراء إنتخابات حرة للهيئة التأسيسية السورية. ولهذه الإنتخابات شرطان مسبقان أساسيان هما إطلاق الحريات والبدء بمسار المحاسبة والعدالة الإنتقالية، وبدونهما لا معنى لهذه الإنتخابات.

إن تحقيق ما سبق يقودنا إلى واقع سوري جديد، حيث ينهي في أحد جوانبه الأساسية قضية الأقليات في سوريا على إختلاف أنواعها، وذلك عبر تحقيق دولة المواطنة التي لا تحوي إلا مواطنين متساويين في الحقوق والواجبات، والتي يتداول الحكم فيها دوريا من يحوز الأغلبية الديمقراطية، والتي تكفل، بغض النظر عن تداول سلطتها، لمواطنيها جميعا الحقوق المنصوص عليها في قوانين حقوق الإنسان الدولية، والتي تشمل بالإضافة إلى الحقوق المدنية والسياسية، الحقوق الدينية والثقافية لجميع الأفراد، والتي لن نتهاون في رصد وضمان تطبيقها. وبذلك تكون الدولة السورية هي المجتمع السياسي الوحيد في سوريا، والذي يجنبنا 'الطبخات المسمة' من جهات ما أكثرها في داخل وخارج الوطن، التي ستؤذي حكما الوطن أو حتى تعمل على تدميره أو تقسيمه. أنا شخصيا، المسيحي الأرثوذكسي، لن أقبل العيش في وطن أكون فيه 'أقلية' بل أفضل المغادرة بهدوء راجيا من الجهات الإنسانية الدولية تسهيل هذه المغادرة.

إن فضل التحرير يعود بعد الله إلى الثوار المجاهدين فغرفة عمليات ردع العدوان والجهات الأمنية والسياسية والفكرية التي عملت على هذا الهدف، ولهم جميعا منا الشكر والعرفان والتقدير للعرق والدماء التي بذلت في سبيل تحريرنا بعد إستعباد وذل طال على نصف قرن. وإذ وصلنا بهذا إلى الحرية، علينا أن نعمل معا من أجل الكرامة والعدالة، ولهذا كله، بات من الطبيعي إن تتحمل المسؤولية، بلا إبطاء، حكومة الإنقاذ السورية ومن تمثل، وهي الراعية والمساندة لغرفة عمليات ردع العدوان، لتكون النواة للسلطة السياسية الإنتقالية، خاصة في ظل أدائها الجيد في المناطق المحررة مسبقا، لدرجة أنه أسر لي الأخوة في "هيئة الرقابة الشعبية" المختصة برصد الإنتهاكات بأنها "حكومة الأوادم". وأعدهم، إلى جانب الشعب السوري الحر، بأننا سنكون لهم خير شريك وسند ورقيب وناصح، ونحن مستمرون حكما بالعمل على نشر الوعي والمناصرة على مستوى الرأي العام العالمي ومراكز الأبحاث الدولية.

ونسأل الله الخير والتوفيق،

حلب ١٠/١٢/٢٠٢٤

نسيم اليازجي

The Ultimate Initiatives to Settle the Syria Crisis

2024-07-29T16:18:00.011+00:00

In light of 13 years of failed and sometimes vicious (really vicious) international policies in Syria, I would love to join the international trend and launch my own initiative to settle the Syria crisis.

It is worthy of mention that my initiative is the only reliable, feasible and attainable initiative in the international market as far as my knowledge of the related international discussions and realities. Moreover, this initiative is the only one that is really rewarding to the world for the international inputs through this 13 years of our Syrian plague.

As a distinguished and reliable initiative, it has an international component, which is called SYRTAGON and a domestic component called SYRIAGONE.

Earlier in July, a group of eight EU member states wants the EU to "review and assess" its approach to Syria. Well, it is a wonderful initiative only if it could succeed in 'engaging' Syrian de facto authorities and ease the Syrian sanctions, so we could, after its success and relying on the 'engagement' and the 'easing' of the routes of the revenues and funding flows of our grand project, reach our dream of Captagon for all world, which deserves rewarding for tolerating our 13-year plague, and by then we could easily put an end to the Syria war and the consequent crisis by engaging and combining all Syrian parties and actors in manufacturing and exporting enough Captagon for the entire world so all Syrians can get wealthy and happy.

To honor this brilliant initiative, upon its success I would, myself, amend my initiative for settling the Syria crisis by changing the mottos of the international and domestic high brands of Syrians Captagon as follows:

For the international brand:

SYRTAGON - You Will Never Get Enough!

It will be changed to:

SYRTAGON - Making The World's Mood!

And for the domestic brand:

SYRIAGONE - Your Salvation By Default!

It will be changed to:

SYRIAGONE - Your Utter Salvation!

Hope you all enjoy the high mood of ours!

Stay tuned to my X account (formerly Twitter), Middle East Policy Blog, and NeoInternationalism website.

Syria Plague and the Nascent Justice Margin between Domestic Affairs and Human Rights Internationalization

2024-07-24T15:53:00.007+00:00

In a historic unprecedented case (for a sitting head of state), the Paris Court of Appeal, earlier this month, upheld the Syrian president arrest warrant over the use of chemical weapons in Syria.

However, the French Public Prosecutor has appealed this decision to the Cassation Court. This move is widely deemed to be morally and legally wrong and disrespectful of victims' rights and the law and justice principles. It is also considered as a political move to protect the perpetrators at the expense of the human rights and the world's committed effort to stop the use of the weapons of mass destruction and the struggle against the crimes against humanity.

This case and its issued arrest warrant of a sitting head of state is a sign that the Syrian plague has contributed to raising awareness of the suffering of peoples at the domestic level and to forming an international consciousness about this sensitive issue formerly deemed a domestic affair. There is a new margin is currently forming that lies between the domestic affair and the human rights Internationalization that may replace the previous hard line between them underpinned by traditional norm of state 'sovereignty'.

Justice is the best occupant for this new margin which is traditionally occupied by national interests and security. The revitalized International justice including the extra-territorial jurisdiction, which crosses the national boundaries in cases of the crimes against humanity will definitely make our world a better place.

In a simple wording, the French judiciary has made a case with a meaning for all authoritarian regimes that they are not licensed to kill their own peoples by default under the protection of sovereignty norm. For now on, there will be at least a check to such mass killing at least for using weapons of mass destruction. This is only a first step to be built on by a vigorous advocacy and relentless work to be extended to cover all crimes against humanity and to surpass the line of national interests of the leading world powers. It will be a long struggle anyway.

This step by the French judiciary is a practical significant milestone in the necessary and much-needed process of the reliable Internationalization of human rights.

Stay tuned to my X account (formerly Twitter), Middle East Policy Blog, and NeoInternationalism website.

Russian-North Korean Mutual Defense Pact and the West's Irrational Misconception

2024-07-09T15:27:00.023+00:00

After a wide round over analyses and commentaries by Western experts and scholars as regards the mutual defense pact between Russia and North Korea, I started to get an insight into the underpinning mentality, which lays the foundations of the Western irrationality (and most probably hysteria given the Western support of a Neo-Nazi regime) over Russia and its operation in Ukraine. (I will write about the hysterical West and its abundance of politics for quite hysteria over Russia and its interests and national security in a future post).

Most of analysts refer to desperate Putin in his resort to the internationally-isolated regime of North Korea. No one even mentioned or cared about geopolitics, especially in Asian region, which is the playground of the forthcoming world watershed geopolitical war. The war in Europe and the wars in the Middle East are the introductory and preparatory measures for this grand war or at least conflict.

Putin, who got a little bit surprised by the strongest and most comprehensive sanctions regime in the world's history and the military and financial reaction of the collective West over the Russian military operation in the Russian areas in the post-cold war delimited Ukraine, is definitely initiating his vengeance versus the US-led West. For him, it is time for the West to pay back in geopolitical terms.

Putin wouldn't sign a military agreement to assist and supplement the Russian forces and their operation's needs in Ukraine, but instead of that he opted for a strategic mutual defense pact. This is a clear indication of the strategic goals of this policy, which obviously fall far behind the Ukraine issue. Meanwhile, this can be considered a one pillar of the forthcoming Russian punishment, which I believe to be intelligent as Russians themselves, non-hysterical, strategic and very significant. This surprising defense pact is a very good example of what to expect of Russian retribution.

At last, I really should mind fellow Western experts to consider the significance of this pact as even of more importance than the military operation in the Russian territories in the former Ukraine.

The Russian-North Korean mutual defense pact is definitely a Russian pursuit to reframe the international order and to modify the world's geopolitical balance.

Stay tuned to my X account (formerly Twitter), Middle East Policy blog and NeoInternationalism website.

Middle East's Geopolitical Future between Beneficial West and Strategic East

2024-07-03T16:49:00.020+00:00

At the same time as the U.S. various sources are revealing and hailing the advanced stage of the undergoing negotiations with Saudi Arabia for a security agreement, the Saudis are in China to discuss the strategic defense partnership between Riyadh and Beijing and to discuss "ways to strengthen military and defense cooperation".

Some Yemeni Houthi sources informed the Lebanese pro-Iranian Al-Akhbar newspaper that Saudis are exploring the possibility of requesting China’s mediation with the Houthis.

Meanwhile, many U.S. media outlets and analysts are still insisting that all Saudi policies, moves and agreements with China are directed at the U.S. as maneuvers or teasing to promote the relationship with the U.S or to attain its assistance in particular fields despite a very significant series of developments in terms of KSA-China relationship and the Chinese changing role in the Middle East.

In this regard, I am wondering about the threshold of which the U.S governmental establishment along with the U.S think-tank community will start to realize the realities of the downgrading U.S position in the Middle East caused by the Biden Administration's policies, especially with regard to Iran and the strategic choices of many leading regional powers to heading to the (Chinese) East.

More than a year ago, I identified these realities and suggested to be reinforced and demonstrated in the geopolitical future at the contrary of the vast majority of the Western fellows and experts then. Since then, the regional developments and occurrences from Iran and Saudi Arabia to Israel and Egypt are attesting to this suggestion towards a clear fact.

For the time being and after this earlier success, I need to summarize the regional political status quo and the current and near future balance of the West-East geopolitics in the Middle East region, I am thrilled to articulate my related finding as follows:

The relations of the majority of the Middle Eastern countries with the U.S.-led West would be of beneficial nature while their relations with the Chinese-led East would be of strategic nature.

Let us test this theory again against the forthcoming regional developments.

To be continued.

Stay tuned to my X account (formerly Twitter), Middle East Policy Blog, and NeoInternationalism website.

Humanitarian-Political Takeaways from and for Brussels VIII Conference 2024 for Syria

2024-06-20T14:01:00.009+00:00

1- First of all, the Syria's Brussels eighth conference catching phenomenon for me was the show of some panelists of wealthy Syrian NGOs crying for Syrian children soliciting donors' mony while supporting (at least implicitly) the authority that made them suffer. Some watchers and analysts refer to various kinds of profit-sharing between them.

This reality has enabled me to make a contribution to the political science by recognizing a political phenomenon and suggesting a name and a definition for it. The "Humanitarian-Political Prostitution" is the state of a 'humanitarian' actor with covert or candid political bias that is advocating and fundraising for a humanitarian issue while it supports the very actors and/or factors that brought this issue about.

2- Syrian Religious and churches' subsidiary humanitarian organizations can really go bare of ethics they claim to have in their practices and work in Syria.

3- It is widely believed in Syria that the 'humanitarian' sector in the Syrian regime-controlled territory accounts to the second profitable sector in business terms after captagon sector in light of total absence of monitoring, true audit, and accountability.

4- Poverty falls into the responsibility of the government which holds the power over that population and its country.

5- Relying on various organizations (including church-led) to distribute humanitarian baskets and allowances in the regime-controlled area was one of the worst practices in terms of corruption, favoritism, nepotism, discrimination and political bias with a total absence of accountability and good governance norms.

6- Any funding to the area controlled by the Syrian government should be openly negotiated with the Syrian regime by an international consortium, which is definitely not led by the UN considering its very controversial practice in Syria. The approved terms should be made public for transparency and feedback by various stakeholders.

7- Syria donors should focus on displaced populations and Syrian refugees, especially in the camps, whom are currently in dire need for even very basic life necessities.

8- The international community of Syria donors is very late and quiet falls behind in terms of political ethics. Syria donors should start, as soon as possible, to adopt and abide by political ethical norms and particularly stop funding all parties, actors and authorities that violate human rights and support terrorism and organized crime.

9- The current pattern of international funding in Syria in some aspects is contributing to the Syrian crisis by at least maintaining the status quo that underpins this crisis and at worst providing funding to the actors that protract it.

10- The Syrian crisis and its related Syrian suffering is of political nature in essence, and can only be solved or relieved when all kinds of policies and practices even those of humanitarian purposes and particularly various funding schemes be founded on sound political ideals and considerations.

To be continued.

Stay tuned to my X (formerly Twitter), Middle East Policy Blog, and NeoInternationalism website.

Conventional Israel and The Changing Middle East: Strategic and Security Challenges

2024-06-10T15:22:00.019+00:00

Through my attentive watch of the political and strategic developments in the Middle East, I can profoundly suggest that Israel's foremost problem belongs to the Israeli mentality and its conventional persistent perspective. By which, Palestinians are considered the essential source of threats and dangers that threaten Israel's existence and wellbeing. Then, this belief is directing almost all Israeli strategies and policies, which obviously have been resulting a consecutive series of failures and shortcomings at the domestic and regional levels in strategic and security terms.

For the governing establishment of Israel, coexistence with Palestinians is an existential myth and impossible end despite that Oslo agreement and consequent cooperation with the Palestinian Authority refuted this belief.

Furthermore, the recent developments in the Middle East since the Obama nuclear deal with Iran along with Obama's policies that empowered Iran and its regional 'resistance axis' proved also that this belief, as a predicating position, is not reliable or successful. Israeli governing establishment's mentality still lives in the founders and state's establishment age and in an outdated phase. It failed to recognize the regional developments of the region in the latest decades, which resulted in a shift in powers, interests and goals making a new strategic regional backdrop and environment.

For Israel, it is the due time for a significant revision to cope with existential threats and insecurities realizing that time and geopolitical developments does not play on Israel's side.

The incidents from October 7 to April 14 and afterwards including Israel's strategic reactions so far have done very well in sustaining this theory.

To be continued.

Stay tuned to my X (formerly Twitter), Middle East Policy Blog, and NeoInternationalism website.

The Bottom Line of Syria Crisis

2024-05-30T15:16:00.026+00:00

In the era of normalization and globalization, let's get it internationally branded:

SYRTAGON

You Will Never Get Enough!

For Syrian domestic consumption, there is a local brand:

SYRIAGONE

Your Salvation By Default!

(Disclaimer: I willingly and freely give up the intellectual property rights.) Well, after a second thought I will give up these rights to Joe Biden and Iran resistance axis.

Stay tuned to my X (formerly Twitter), Middle East Policy Blog, and NeoInternationalism website.

The French Arrest Warrants for Chemical Weapons Attacks in Syria: A Precedent with Key Questions

2023-12-08T15:50:00.024+00:00

In an unprecedented development, the French judiciary has issued an international arrest warrants for the chemical weapons attacks performed by the Syrian government (regime) against civilians during the Syria war. The warrants target three top Syrian officials including the Syrian president.

Here is all you need to know about the first international (non-ICC) arrest warrant of a sitting head of another state for a grave crime against humanity and/or war crime by the Syrian Center for Media and Freedom of Expression (SCM).

This international precedent is stating that no sovereign impunity for grave crimes against humanity, as clearly indicated by the issuing judiciary, prompts two questions. First, would it be a followed precedent marking a change in the int practice? And the second question, how the following practice will define the initiating grave crimes?

One explanatory enquiry should follow here is about whether the western powers that practically ignored and neglected a substantial quantity of grave war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by various parties including the Syrian regime (government) throughout the Syrian war are acting or will act only on chemical weapons deployment to actually defend their interests in maintaining their power supremacy rather than the victims rights as this supremacy is endangered by the proliferation of chemical weapons and the tolerance of their usage.

Only time will have the answers.

Stay tuned to my X (formerly Twitter), Middle East Policy Blog, and NeoInternationalism website.

Netherlands and Canada's ICJ Torture Case Against Syria: A New Era of International Indictment of Sovereign Governments' National Crimes

2023-08-07T14:00:00.014+00:00

Netherlands' torture and other ill-treatment case against Syria at the International Court of Justice opens a new chapter in the international order and practice. Although our previous experience with the international order and the international institutions, especially in the Syrian crisis, lets almost no room for any expectations for this case to end torture in Syria or to achieve any difference in the course of action of the Syrian regime, it definitely can lay the foundation for this end by the international documentation, indictment and recognition of these domestic crimes.

In general, this unprecedented ICJ case has a particular international importance as It has a real chance to prompt a beginning of some international system development in terms of the international responsibility and role concerning ill-governance, which is generally fenced by the norm of sovereignty, especially in terms of systematic practice of torture and other kindes of ill-treatment by national governments.

This importance belongs to three factors:

1- It is an international precedent and this precedence per se will open and lead the way for new international practices and realities in this regard.

2- It will officially and judicially document and recognize domestic crimes at the international level. This will have implications at the domestic and international levels to be decided by the consequent actions by the domestic and international actors including other states and international organizations.

3- At the Syrian level, this case and its proceedings will constitute a significant moral blow to the recent normalization efforts with the Syrian regime and the states leading this normalization process. It will actually affect the development and the outcomes of the normalization efforts and will cause by default an embarrassment to the governments leading these efforts internally and internationally.

Moreover, it sheds light on availability of international means --regardless of their efficacy-- should states opt for supporting good governance and basic human rights along with the reluctance of states to make recourse to these means. These two facts are demonstrated by this dutch unprecedented resolution and the vast abstaining from joining Netherlands and Canada in this case by other states.

Although the 3-month postponement of the provisional measures indication hearings at the request of the Syrian government (regime) makes a really bad start for this unprecedented process, this case, its proceedings and its outcomes and consequences should be attentively monitored and considered by all parties including domestic and international actors and get contemplated by studying researchers and scholars.

Stay tuned to my Twitter, Middle East Policy Blog, and NeoInternationalism website.

Syria Strategic Battle: Between Israel's Pretence and Iranian Reality

2023-07-24T13:41:00.031+00:00

It seems that the Israeli governmental establishment applies the 'ostrich' perspective as regards the Israeli Syria policy and the Iranian entrenchment in post-war Syria, which is reluctant to see or recognize. They are still insisting that they managed to defeat the Iranian 'project' (by their own definition of this project) in Syria and hold an assessment which concluds that post-war Syria is not a geopolitical field of the Iranian influence. This conclusion is definitely not shared by the vast majority of the Syrian scholars and activists, who have a quite different assessment of the Iranian power and influence in their country Syria.

These substantially different assessments and conclusions prompt a necessary enquiries to discern this persistent Israeli pretence:

- What is the Israeli governmental understanding of the outstanding comprehensive Iranian power and influence in Syria in the military, governmental, economic and social fields?

- Does Iran have the ability to launch land fires at the Israeli territory from the Syrian south, as it did in April rocket salvo, regardless of the military capacity and scope of the Iranian firepower and the deployment of drones?

- Can there be a negotiated solution of the Syrian crisis without an Iranian role? And can a transitional government be formed in Syria without an Iranian contribution?

- Does Israel have the requisite assets to play a role and hold any influence in the future Syria?

- How did Israel lose its cards and role in neighboring Syria? What were the factors underpinning the Israeli role in the handover of the south Syria to the regime in 2018?

- Does the Israeli governmental establishment have a vision of Israel's long-term regional interests in the Middle East as regards particularly security, economic and energy projects amid regional rivalry by Iran and Turkey and in the reality of the Syrian geographic importance for these rivals and interests? And consequently does it have a strategy to achieve these interests on the Syrian side?

The answers of the previous questions will make it possible and even clear to find out the regional strategic loser of the Syrian war despite any official denial or opposite pretence.

Here is a list of my related articles:

- Israel's Strategy in Syria: From Enabling Iran to Strategic Loss

- Syria in Reality: Iran's Power and Israel's Policy

- Arab Normalization with Syrian Regime: A Victory for Iran or Loss for Arabs?

- Prompting a New Phase in the Middle East: Iran Claims Victory in Syria

- The Changing Middle East: Traditional Israel and Changer Iran

- Iran's Acknowledged Presence in Syria: From Permeation to Imposition

Stay tuned to my Twitter, Middle East Policy Blog, and NeoInternationalism website.

The Internationalism of the Syrian Crisis: The Context and Exercise of the Regime's Interim Victory

2023-07-14T13:32:00.020+00:00

The 'internationalism' keeps being demonstrated as an empirical fact in the international field where the Westphalian 'border' of sovereignty of nation-state is actually porous to international inputs and even determinant kind of international 'interference'. In fact, the international input including all kinds of practices and policies is of vital importance and impact in shaping the outcome of domestic-deemed issues regardless of their international ramifications and dimensions. The sovereignty is not a barrier between the domestic and international realms in reality. 'interference' is a term made to maintain the interests of the most powerful actors, and is actually a natural kind of interaction when it is not protected by adequate power. This is actually a reality rather than a theory or ideology.

The ideology is what I invented and became a Keen proponent of it that is 'Neo-Internationalism' where the international natural input in domestic affairs follows internationally-approved values and norms which are mainly based on and derived from the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the International Covenant of Civil and Political Rights for the good of the concerned parties and the international system and wellbeing in general.

The international political phenomenon of 'internationalism' so far is totally related to interfering states' national interests and cynical benefits unfortunately. This international practice is the one responsible for the death of the once very promising rising international norm of 'responsibility to protect' (R2P) by particularly the international inputs in the Syrian issue, as I articulated a few years ago.

After the death of R2P with the rolling death toll of the Syrian people, the international Syria policies have been dictating the fate of the Syrian war and people uprising. As a result, the Syrian regime has managed to win and claim victory and starts to exercise its victory especially in its refusal to implement any part of the teeth-less Security Council resolution 2254. This is a quite normal position as winners dictate their own terms with no need to follow others' terms including the international law and UN's resolutions. That is actually what victory is about.

In this regard, I want to shed light on two turning points that actually contributed, in my view, to conceiving the Syrian regime's victory or at least partial or temporary victory. This is to try to define and understand the tipping points that turned the on-ground state of powers to a political result without detailing all factors of this outcome which are many and certainly include the mismanagement and failures of the amateur, corrupt and agent Syrian opposition institutions and factions.

- The first point is the handover of the south to the regime in 2018 which was the tipping point of the territorial military victory of the regime in my opinion. The almost peaceful handover of the region, which was the cradle of the Syrian uprising, indicates with no doubt that it was brought about by an international decision, especially by the region's neighboring countries mainly Israel. For the Israeli side, this decision turned to be its biggest mistake ever through the course of the Syrian war, as Israel currently watches its primary regional adversary Iran entrenching in the region threatening the adjacent Israeli territory.

- The second tipping point of victory is at the moral and political levels, which is the U.S. green-lighted normalization decision and process with the Syrian regime by the neighboring and Arab countries including the once leader of anti-regime front Turkey. This key development created the political conclusion for the regime's victory and even more it has been a substantial factor of this victory.

The natural anticipated action by the Syrian regime after this internationally-prompted and considerably recognized victory is to exercise it, and that is exactly has been the case. The regime exercised this victory at two also natural levels, domestic and international. Domestically, the regime simply has not changed its governing structure, policies and means. This applies to the entire system and includes the abstaining from even making any significant adjustments to the governance in the regime-held Syrian regions. The regime is substantially staying the course of pre-uprising governance. Internationally and regionally, the regime moved by this victory from not implementing any part of the SC resolution 2254 to ignoring this resolution. Right after the re-admittance of the regime to the Arab League and the Jeddah Arab summit, the Syrian foreign minister made a statement to Sputnik news agency that the regime has previously implemented this resolution by holding multi-level elections. In addition, the regime exercised this victory at this level by bargaining other regional and non-regional states to cooperate in all Syrian-originated regional and international problems and threats, which mainly include the refugees question, narcotics and regional security. Once again, this course of action pertaining to its internationally-prompted victory by the Syrian regime is quite natural and coherent, and without it its victory will be meaningless.

Some critics can argue that the regime's victory is deficient as the regime is not in control of all Syrian territory, especially the oil-rich northeast region, and it is under strict sanctions system as well, which deprive it from vital economic resources. As this critique is somehow sound, it is essential to realize and consider two points. The Syrian regime demonstrated high level of patience and reasonable level of pragmatism, which enable it to maintain its functionality as long as there is no international decision to oust it, and the economic/humanitarian situation in its held region does not reach the breakdown threshold, which is also not permitted by the international powers.

For now, and in this very Syrian and international contexts, the only available and feasible means to contain the Syrian regime's victory is economic pressure as the military pressure is substantially excluded by the standing international policies in Syria. Changing or reversing this course and its related realities requires a change in the international input in Syria and that is the bottom line. Then, this necessitates a substantial strategic change in the Syria policies of the stakeholders powerful states and their underlying strategic views. This objective relies on either a grave Syrian-prompted deterioration in the region that is leading to significant threats and damages to these powers interests, the scenario that has reasonable prospect in the medium-term future, or a concerted deliberate course of action by the Syrian opposition to compel this intended international change, which is quite unlikely.

In conclusion, after the Internationalism of the Syrian crisis folded up the governance issue away to the crisis's international ramifications, the ultimate representation and practical abstract of the Syrian regime's victory is realized by the achievement of turning the Syrian question from a national governance crisis to international, and more precisely inter-states, dispute and issues. All parties who seek to change this outcome should realize and consider this conclusion to tackle this reality and cope with it.

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Israel's Strategy in Syria: From Enabling Iran to Strategic Loss

2023-06-24T22:56:00.014+00:00

Seven months ago, I wrote about the failure of the Israeli policy in Syria, which poses Israel as a main regional loser in the aftermath of the war in Syria. This article has been followed by other articles describing the following changing balance in the Middle East between Israel and Iran to the benefit of Iran and the role of Israeli policies and its traditional strategy and means toward its regional strategic loss.

Meanwhile, the Israeli government and intelligence establishment were in quite different place claiming even achievements in Syria as regards Iran's entrenchment there. The academia and research institutions were in-between. Recently, it came to my attention this article by Ehud Yaari, which is the ever best Israeli analysis I have read in months.

Finally, there is some scholar in Israel has the realistic and true assessment of the situation in Syria and the Israeli policy there along with the strategic conclusion. This is definitely a useful work, as the Israeli governmental and research bodies apparently and generally deem our scholarly contribution (the Middle Eastern scholars) unworthy of been taken into account. Then, I do hope they read and seriously consider this Israeli analysis to change their Syria policy to the benefit of the two neighboring countries and the needed peace in the region.

Here are my comments on select excerpts of the article with a few key highlights:

- "After the outbreak of the uprising against Assad in March 2011, Israel chose a policy of non-interference and refrained from taking significant covert actions to help the rebels topple his regime." On the contrary, there is well-established conclusion in Syria that The strategic decision of Israel is to maintain the outstanding regime and it used its leverage and even lobbied or affected the Western governments, particularly the US government to covertly uphold such policy. The Israeli acts concerning Syria throughout its war would support this conclusion, especially the decision about handing over the Southern region of Syria that neighbors Israel to the Syrian regime in 2018.

- "In the south, Israel had to stop its well-publicized 'Good Neighbor' operation that since June 2016 provided humanitarian aid to the civilian population (and with no publicity, modest salaries to 7,000 rebel fighters). Some of the rebel commanders left Syria via Israel to seek new refuge." At the strategic level, it is also thought in Syria that the mostly peaceful handover of this region in 2018 would not have been possible without an Israeli decision in this regard. Moreover, many Syrian rebels and scholars consider Israel the main party that is responsible for this strategic loss. I consider this handover a key tipping point in the course of the Syrian uprising and war.

- "For its part, Iran keeps adjusting its military penetration into Syria under the pressure of Israeli air force bombings, often on a weekly basis, of its facilities and convoys. Suleimani’s original plan is for now on hold." Iran did established a military capabilities in Syria through a complex network of allied, aligned, sponsored and directly-commanded militias and even regular military troops. The article was accurate about Israeli targets that are precisely just Iran's military facilities and conveys. The other point I want to tackle is the almost mythological Suleimani's plan, which I really don't know who disseminated it, or the trustworthy source that detailed it. The bottom line here is that Iran is extremely pragmatic player with experience in proactively playing on the ground to create assets and achieve interests and advantages, and the proof of that is Iran's success in Syria. Who is not familiar with Iran's pragmatism is not familiar with Iran itself.

- "Israeli intelligence believes that 80-90 percent of the Iranian military presence in Syria has been destroyed." Apart from the math and calculation of the Israeli intelligence, which is most probably not even close to reality and lack strategic and political significance, Iran has the sufficient military assets and capabilities to pose a threat and reach the Israeli territories with various kinds of fires launched from Syria, and it actually proved it when concluded the April rocket salvo on Israel with the Syrian rockets. Then, there is no need for speculation or self-delusions in this regard.

- "The current US military deployment prevents the IRGC from expanding deliveries into Syria." Mr. Yaari again fine-tunes his terms to comply with reality as much as possible. However, we have no evidence yet that any US role or activity in Syria was intended and/or was successful in stalling Iran's entrenchment or diminishing Iran's power in Syria. In fact, Iran has claimed victory in Syria and seeks the international and regional recognition of this reality, as I specified in my previous articles (see the links below).

- "Hopes that the West or the Arab states would offer Assad attractive incentives to break away from Iran’s embrace are wishful thinking." I have suggested previously that the Saudi-led rapproachment and normalization with the Syrian regime is a part of the Saudi-Iranian rapproachment agreement, which is widely considered an Iranian achievement and success. This suggestion is supported by the fact that KSA and Arabs have got precisely nothing from the Syrian regime in return so far.

- "Was there ever an opportunity to avoid the present danger? If so, it was missed." Yes there was such opportunity especially in two places or occasions, the Israeli lobbying or effect on the policies of the US and other western allies, and in the Israeli management of the south Syria file. This opportunity has been definitely missed.

- "Israel now has no choice other than to vigorously thwart the Iranian effort to implement Qassem Suleimani’s strategic prescription of how to overpower Israel." As Israel lost the upper hand to the victorious Iran in Syria so far, it needs to start a new strategy and course of action there. Firstly, playing merely at the tactical level in implementing a strategy was and will always be a prescription for strategic loss. Syria's war was a strategic breakthrough and situation that entails a tailored and deliberate strategy based on realistic conceptions and intended objectives. This breakthrough and its related strategy require new means of achievement as well. Adopting and employing the same old and traditional means will also assure this strategic loss.

Weakening the neighboring Syria and maintaining the traditional governing structure there was a losing traditional strategy with tactical and old means that only destructed and deconstructed a neighboring country and enabled a regional threatening adversary there.

Here are the links of my related articles that are essential to conceive the strategic and geopolitical context of the Syrian issue and its regional implications and consequences:

- Syria in Reality: Iran's Power and Israel's Policy

- Arab Normalization with Syrian Regime: A Victory for Iran or Loss for Arabs?

- Prompting a New Phase in the Middle East: Iran Claims Victory in Syria

- The Changing Middle East: Traditional Israel and Changer Iran

- Iran's Acknowledged Presence in Syria: From Permeation to Imposition

Stay tuned to my Twitter, Middle East Policy Blog, and NeoInternationalism website.

Syrian Opposition's Misconduct Saga: The Political Vandalization of Civil Activism By Madaniya

2023-06-10T15:59:00.020+00:00

The new Syrian political/civil platform called Madaniya is a further and even advanced misstep to be added to the continuous series of mistakes by the Syrian opposition, so-called Syrian opposition or agent Syrian opposition. Apart from the entire absence of transparency and democratic mechanisms in governance, which usually leads to corruption and mercenariness, that characterize the vast majority of the Syrian opposition's institutions and entities, Madaniya is making a fatal precedent.

Madaniya is a political entity or an entity with political goals, as stated in its official documents, with a structure and shape of an umbrella for pre-set Syrian civil society organizations. Even though its official literature and rhetoric is causing a lot of confusion about the type and job of this ambiguous institution, the unfortunate and deliberate mix between the civil and political domains can only achieve one end that is to vandalize the both of them, especially the civil domain and activitism.

The civil activitism should only be dependent on and pertaining to the rights-based approach and methodology regardless of the governance system and the type of the government and its applied various and changing political ideologies. Otherwise, it will destroy the credibility and effectiveness of the activist civil organizations along with their moral and ethical significance and respect. The common space between the civil and political activism can be conceived by and defined with the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the International Covenant of Civil and Political Rights, which should always serve as the premium constitution of civil activitism and work.

Madaniya's this unfortunate fatal precedent and massive mistake threaten to severely damage the nascent civil society Syrian activism, which is still developing and lacks experience, strength and credibility by turning this civil activitism to political activism and civil society organizations to political parties. This misguided and misconceived transformation is an utter vandalization of the civil domain and its role by moving its approach and work from the 'rights,' which are absolute and unbiased to politics, which is relative, ideological and cynical interest-motivated activity.

I would call on all Syrian civil organizations and activists to strictly stick to rights-based approach and methodology, and the sponsor of Madaniya platform to correct this massive misstep and establish a political party.

Stay tuned to my Twitter, Middle East Policy Blog, and NeoInternationalism website for the exciting developments in the region and world's politics.

Gambling on the Warhead, Iran Gets the Requisite Missile

2023-06-02T22:42:00.024+00:00

It seems that the mainstream media follows the course of their governments in their coverage of political and other related developments. As the US Democrat administrations with many other European governments usually incline to practically overlook the Iranian ballistic missile program and its deployment, the mainstream media also is impacted by this inclination. This is indicated by the light and deficient coverage of the recent Iran's unveiling of the fourth generation of its Khorramshahr ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 km (1,243 miles) and a 1,500 kg (3,300 lb) warhead as reported by the official IRNA news agency.

Iran named it Khaybar in reference to famous Islamic anti-jewish battle alongside a replica of the Al-Aqsa Mosque in the live broadcast of the state television. As usual, Iran directs its rhetoric against Israel and does not miss any show of its power in this regard . This is an official Iranian tradition and an essential pillar of the ideology of the Islamic revolution in Iran, which would not be possible without the actual support of the west, by the way.

Back to this development's importance, it is indispensable to mention that the ballistic program is an essential part of any nuclear armament program because the fact that the possession of the nuclear bomb is meaningless without the possession of its delivery means, which are definitely the ballistic missiles of reasonable accuracy and required range. This key information was broadly missed or overlooked by many media outlets in the coverage of this event.

Iran has declared that it has the ballistic missile that can reach Israel and the entire Gulf region, and now the question is would it obtain the nuclear bomb? Regardless of the answer, Iran keeps proving that it is a competent Middle Eastern player.

Stay tuned to my Twitter, Middle East Policy Blog, and NeoInternationalism website for the exciting developments in the region and world's politics.

Israel Spring and Middle East's Order: The geopolitics of Democracy and Peace

2023-05-30T13:01:00.024+00:00

Islamic Jihad's only success was cancelling the week 19 Tel Aviv pro-democracy demonstrations. Just add democracy before the resistance axis and you will discover the real war in the Middle East. Seemingly, democracy has to win here to prevail in the Middle East. Only democracy and dignity will achieve peace in the region, which is one region and will always be. So, it is one war with multiple battles. The war for democracy and freedom is pertaining to human dignity, so it can never be sectarian, ethnic or divisive. Rather, it is unifying, pluralistic, philanthropic and pacifying struggle. So, let us unify and pacify our Middle East with democracy, freedom and human rights, and let us start from a real democratic Israel.

Here are my explanatory comments:

- Abolishing the judiciary's independence in Israel will put it under government's authority and eventually will turn it into a part of the executive authority, and this will definitely destroy Israel's democracy, especially in the absence of a constitution.

- In a significantly polarized divided society like the current situation in Israel, only a profound democracy can protect the various sects of the society and save the country's unity and peace.

- The absence of a true and profound democracy in Israel is the utmost threat and danger that will definitely and seriously threaten the Israel's very existence as a country. I do believe that the eventual existence of the country of Israel is dependent on its democratic system regardless of external threats or factors.

- Far-right incumbent Israeli government has opted for authoritarianism as a governance system for Israel, which will turn Israel into a traditional Middle Eastern state that are colonially-artificial authoritarian states. Although this may lead it to join the autocratic club of the region, and even may ironically get it admitted to the Arab League, it will put it in the same systematic deficiencies and flaws of the neighboring countries and get it infected with their intrinsic social, economic and security problems. Eventually, authoritarianism will make Israel extremely vulnerable to its regional adversaries and rivals seeking any opportunity to get it submitted to their influence in case it is not collapsed by internal dynamics.

- Dictatorship is not sustainable per se. Post-colonial Arab and regional dictatorships can not survive on the long run with a rising number of challenges and various kinds of problems that include social, economic and security deficiencies. Arab spring is only an igniting start of major regional unrest and consequent domestic and geopolitical developments. Putting Israel on the wrong side and direction of history will inflict it with very serious consequences that it could not survive especially in this very regional challenging and threatening context and environment, in my opinion.

- In geopolitics, Israel's real and profound democracy will have positive and promoting implications on the Middle East as regards democratization and human rights struggle. The victory of pro-democracy movement in Israel is a requisite for a geopolitical medium that is hospitable to regional democratic change in the future.

- Democratic change in the Middle East with a reliable human rights application and respect will change the traditional geopolitics in the region to less divisive boundaries and more integration through less protectionist nationalism and sectarian and/or ethnic intolerance to more regionalism and internationalism crossing over the lines and boundaries of sectarian and national division and conflict to some integrative complimentary regional order which enables and sustains peace and economic prosperity of the participatory regional countries.

- The aforementioned democratic transformation of the Middle East is the only ultimate solution or remedy for the region's persistent deficiencies, instability, extremism and violence.

Even that it is a very long road to this end, it always needs a start, and hopefully be a compelling and necessary start as the struggle to uphold democracy in the streets of Tel Aviv.

Stay tuned to my Twitter, Middle East Policy Blog, and NeoInternationalism website for the exciting developments in the region and world's politics.

Arab League Jeddah Summit: Normalizing to 'Business as Usual'

2023-05-22T14:10:00.023+00:00

With the comeback of the Syrian regime to the Arab Autocratic/Authoritarian League, the system of this regional institution has been restored to the normal operation condition. This is per se constitutes an achievement for the Arab mutual cooperation and for this institution, which has not any democratic member among 22 member states of the Arab League. This significant long-awaited breakthrough achievement finally restores the status of the Arab system to 'business as usual'. For the whining activists about tremendous atrocities, destruction and humanitarian catastrophe in Syria, they should answer a very simple question. Why around a million killed Syrians and more than 10 millions of Syrian displaced and refugees and undefined number of disappeared, tortured and raped Syrians besides a continued humanitarian disaster should affect the Arab regimes' 'business as usual' and the Arab League's normal condition? What is the relation or the connection between these two things in the first place? In elaboration and in fact, how do you define their normal condition and business in essence and practice?

Getting back to my related commentary, I am somewhat surprised of the odd expectations of many intellectuals from a regional organization that has zero democracy among its 22 member states. But, however, the question about 'why' they reinstated Syrian regime's membership in this particular time and context is a quite reasonable question. The answer is related to the host state Saudi Arabia and its masterminding of the summit in the context of its new foreign policy.

It starts from the apparent loss, or the unreachable victory at least, in Yemen. This reality intertwined with two key developments, the Biden administration's appeasement policy towards Iran and the somewhat controversial power transition in Saudi Arabia. Muhammad Bin Salman could not forget Biden's harsh remarks and promises about him and his country in general in his electoral campaign, which directly followed by Biden's first surprising international decision after his presidential inauguration removing Hothis from terrorist organizations list. In this tough situation of Saudi Arabia when there is a transition of power and a challenging and threatening endless war with Iran-backed Hothis in Yemen attacking even the Saudi lands and infrastructure, MBS had no choice but to resort to China and Russia to balance powers after the abandonment by the US, the kingdom's almost eternal ally.

To complete the regional scene and context for Saudi Arabia, Iran regional victories and powers, especially in Syria and Iraq besides Yemen should be added and considered. MBS opted for acknowledging Iran's rising power and influence, so he chose rapproachment with Iran. The smartest move he made in this regard was the resort to China to adjust and maintain the rapproachment with Iran and balance the relations with it after its regional advancement, because otherwise that and in this particular situation, victorious Iran will make him pay a huge price for its victory and his seeming loss.

Back to Jeddah Summit of the Arab League, the normalization with the Syrian regime and its re-admittance was, in my opinion, a part of the Iranian deal. In these circumstances, MBS not to go eastward so far to the extent that will provoke the US and to appease it, he intelligently made this Zelensky meaningless and effectless show. However, everything else in the summit went as 'business as usual' and nothing really interesting or worth to mention.

For the Syrian side, although this Saudi-led Arab new deal about Syria is a moral and ethical slap, it will not change anything on the ground, so the Syrian catastrophe will also be unfortunately 'as usual.'

Stay tuned to my Twitter, Middle East Policy Blog, and NeoInternationalism website for the exciting developments in the region and world's politics.

Arab Normalization with Syrian Regime: A Victory for Iran or Loss for Arabs?

2023-05-16T16:57:00.026+00:00

A meme putting the Iranian president in the seat of Syria at the Arab League.

One hard thing for political analysts and researchers when they find difficulty in understanding or analyzing some political development or course of action. A lot of ink has been spilled lately by political analysts and commentators trying to explain the unexpected and inexplicable decision of the Arab League to re-admit the Syrian regime after 12 years of suspension because of the atrocities committed by this regime against the Syrian people among other causes according to the suspension decision along with a started Arab normalization course with the Syrian regime. I am trying to explain this decision by spelling major reasonable causes and eventually derive the strategic significance of this political development.

- First thing to do here is to ask about what has changed in the context of the Syrian crisis and the suspension decision. The answer is nothing except for the military victory of the Syrian regime against the opposition's factions. The pertaining question will be about the willingness of the Arab states to concede and politically acknowledge a semi-military victory, as considerable territories are still out of the Syrian regime's control, especially as the political crisis is still active at the domestic and international levels and still lacks any kind of political settlements. So, conceding for free is not likely the motivation for the Arab re-admittance decision and normalization course.

- Captagon is an issue that can be dealt with in various ways that does not need to change the political landscape in the region of course. However, Captagon huge shipments are not stopped yet according to concerned states disclosures and will not be soon as it became linked to war economy with sophisticated very wide infrastructure, stakeholders and beneficiaries. We learned from previous international experiences that such businesses and economic activities are sustainable and persistent and need decades to be dealt with in some way or another with moderate expectations in success cases. So, Captagon combating cooperation can not be the motivation for such political development like this normalization and rearrangement of geopolitical scene with reinstating the Syrian regime in the regional order. This would be irreasonable in political terms and practice.

- Can this normalization be a part in a settlement plan of the Syrian crisis? If so, it should be in the closing parts or later moves of such plans or agreements not in the advance or initiating measures because this in fact abolishes the entire plan as it eliminates the reciprocality when it delivers the stakes in advance. This is quite foolish and meaningless in political practice.

- The only reasonable and realistic explanation I could find in my research is of strict political nature. I do think that is related to Chinese-brokered Iranian-Saudi rapproachment agreement, and I believe that is a part of it. In fact, the Iranian president's visit to Damascus with its timing and rhetoric is actually supporting this suggestion. The only criticism that can be directed at this perspective is the yet absent advantage the Saudis should have obtained in Yemen through this trade-off with Iran.

We may need some time to clear the ambiguity of this Saudi-led Arab new deal in Syria. Meanwhile, for the time being we can discuss the derived strategic implications of this course of action.

- How far the damage we may expect in the Middle East prompted by Biden administration's policies before it leaves? It becomes more obvious day by day the rising influence and roles of primarily China and secondly Russia in the Middle East along with the more assertive and strengthening Iranian regional position and role. This will eventually lead to a geopolitical change in the region and consequently a new regional order.

- Political actions and new deals like this Saudi-led Arab normalization and Arab League reinstatement of the Syrian regime will be futile at best if not counterproductive without a definite political context and significance, which their existence are requisite to deliver pre-set political objectives. Without these conditions, it is much probably that this Arab new policy towards the Syrian regime would not have considerable effects in Syria beyond the moral sphere, especially considering the actual reality of Iranian power and presence in Syria.

The only effect of this Saudi-led Arab action so far is the recognition and acknowledgement of the Iranian victory in Syria and pressuring the Syrian people to deal with this reality.

To be continued.

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Prompting a New Phase in the Middle East: Iran Claims Victory in Syria

2023-05-10T15:09:00.021+00:00

Once again, my empirical realistic perspective proves its competency and applicability. At the significance level, nothing exceptional can be inferred from the Iranian president's visit to Damascus should we apply conventional political analysis methodology. But this will not be the case if we put this visit in the context and perspective set by my latest related articles posted in the latest weeks. Starting from Iran's rising power in Syria and going through my conclusion about Iran's intention and plans to achieve a geopolitical change and advance its interests reaching to the realities of the changing Middle East accompanied by Iran's 'changer' role, we can transparently find out the significance and importance of this visit and its outcomes.

- In general, through the lifespan of the Syrian war, there were no breakthroughs or considerable accomplishments at the level of state-to-state relations between Iran and Syria. Many agreements had been previously signed by the two states that didn't succeed in achieving high trade volume between the two countries or formalizing the Iranian actual linkage with Syria's infrastructure and state executive structure. This is maybe because of the war settings and the Iranian preference and expertise in substate domain and relations over the official formal state level. Hence, the added 15 agreements by this visit are not expected to make a breakthrough in this regard. An exception can be made here, in my opinion, in two fields if Iran has officially obtained Syrian lands in return for its huge debts as it asked earlier, and privileges and rights in the transportation and railways domains, so it can formalize its access to the strategic corridor to the Mediterranean Sea. However, even if this is the case, this would not affect Iran's on-ground dominance and influence on its vital Syrian infrastructure and geography in practical terms.

- A keynote of this visit is its timing, which came after Chinese-brokered Saudi-Iranian rapproachment agreement, and following the start of the Arab normalization course with the Syrian regime and just before the re-admittance of the Syrian regime to the Arab League. For me, it is hard to believe that this normalization and the re-admittance decision was not a part of the Iranian-Saudi agreement. This timing is apparently set to expose this fact as an Iranian accomplishment.

- The milestone of this visit, which summarizes and represents the entire significance and indication of Iran's policy and position in Syria, is the Iranian president's victory speech at Sayyeda Zainab Shiite shrine in Damascus. In this speech in this very particular place and in almost absence of any Syrian official the Iranian president claimed victory. He also did not miss the chance to articulate the advancing "resistance front" that has been advantaged against the "Zionist regime" by the new developments in the region. This iconic scene, as previously mentioned, summarizes and represents the Iranian perception of the regional developments and the resulting Iranian advancement and position in geopolitical terms. It also serves as an indication of the forthcoming Iranian policies and course of action in the Middle East or even beyond. Indigenous Middle Eastern scholars, with unbiased non-ideological realistic methodologies, will find no difficulty reaching this conclusion because they have the mentality of the region and the familiarity with its 'ecosystem' that make the regional political signs and actions comprehensible to them.

In the changing Middle East, Iran has played at the strategic level with a deliberate vision and objectives. In this regard, Iran for reaching the utmost of interests, influence, and geopolitical role, has deployed various kinds of policies and powers ranging from the rapproachment with, let us call it, the eastern side powers particularly the Saudi Arabia and other Sunni countries to the deliberate deployment of powers and assets, including rockets and drones, in front of the western side powers particularly Israel and the United States.

Syria, the strategic geography and the very important and even vital geopolitical arena, which is overlooked and missed by the US and Israel, has been chosen by Iran as the climax center and playground for Iran's regional role and power as demonstrated by this iconic victorious visit and speech in this very particular timing and place.

This is definitely signaling a new phase in the region marking Iran out as a key regional player with advanced position and role, which has been made possible, in my opinion, by the failing U.S. and Israeli policies in Syria.

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The Changing Middle East: Traditional Israel and Changer Iran

2023-04-20T13:21:00.020+00:00

Only a few days after I inferred Iran's intentions to achieve a change and advanced interests at the regional and international levels derived from its acquired strong regional standing and cards, and a few weeks after writing on Iran's rising power in Syria following the failure of the US and Israeli policies there, a practical proof arose by the latest rocket salvo on Israel. Iran clearly wants new regional rules and position and consequent regional and international recognition of its power and interests. In my opinion, the ultimate prize in this regard that Iran is seeking is to protect its nuclear program and facilities in the pursuit of attaining the implicit regional and explicit international recognition of the reality of the nuclear Iran.

Iran's new endeavor has been made possible only with its entrenchment in Syria, so the rockets from Syria were the concluding line of the Iranian message of the multi-front rocket salvo. The weakening Russian role in Syria due to the very extreme western pressure following hostilities in Ukraine caused the collapse of the Russian indispensable balance of power with Iran, which added to Iran's power and role, or even made the current Iran position in Syria possible. The importance of the Syrian front for both Iran and Israel is pertaining to its geography and location which connects Iran to Mediterranean Sea and Lebanon, and exposing Israel's most important area to potential threat besides the perks of neighboring Turkey and proximity to the Gulf states.

The earlier denial or indifference to Iran's accumulated regional power and cards was catastrophic and very harmful to the region and the western interests and influence in the region as demonstrated by recent developments, especially the rising Chinese role in the Middle East. This denial cost the losing of the ability to undertake preemptive measures or policy, which became out of reach and beyond availability. Thus, the only applicable course of action left is of proactive nature while missing a relevant and competent proactive policy for any reason, including the astonishing US negligence by usually the Democrat administrations, will probably means and leads to somehow handing over the region to Iran.

Apart from the Biden administration's negligence, or even empowerment of Iran in the Middle East, which is consistent with previous Obama administrations' policies and considering the US regional waning role and presence, Israel has exposed misunderstanding of the situation in Syria and its foundations and consequent lack of effectual vision to deal with it. Moreover, Israel still shows this misunderstanding and misbelief, which result in failed policies that worsen the situation in Syria and the region and empower its regional rivals or adversaries putting its security under their threat. Playing old cards in a new game and playing in tactical level in a strategic situation could not be less than destructive and counterproductive at best. Israel is in need of a brand new Syria policy that is based on a new vision besides deploying new means at the strategic level.

I can see an apparent change in the Middle East is taking place, which is unfortunately faced with a desire and policies of many regional countries including some regional powers that seek to restore the old Middle East and its traditional regional politics in vain of course. In this context, Iran has demonstrated, at least for the time being, the patience, ability and will to mastermind this change and its outcomes to its own benefit, which enables it to gain the upper hand in the current developments in the Middle East.

Stay tuned to my Twitter and NeoInternationalism website for the exciting developments in the world's politics.

The U.S. Frustration over the Change in the Middle East

2023-04-11T19:47:00.002+00:00

Admitting frustration over Saudi's China-brokered rapprochement with Iran and Syria's new deal after implicit denial of their significance or strategic nature is a very good first step provided that it be complemented with considering the fact of being consequences of US policies and checking and reviewing these failed policies.

I said it before, it is a strategic move and new deal:

Middle East’s New Era: China’s Prominence and the U.S. Retreat

And it is a consequence of the US frustrating and failing policies:

The Middle East Is Heading East: Ending the Western Era?

Iran's Acknowledged Presence in Syria: From Permeation to Imposition

2023-04-06T20:42:00.002+00:00

Iran made a significant statement about its presence in Syria that has been almost overlooked by the media and analysts. Its significance wasn't highlighted despite it can be considered as a key development in this regard.

In general, we got used to the Iranian threatening rhetoric of retaliation after been hit by usually Israeli and occasionally US air strikes, but this is the first time Iran acknowledges its military 'bases' and their existence in Syria. The Iranian security spokesman was clear in using the term 'bases' in his threatening statement. This is an Iranian precedent to my knowledge. Iran usually talks about its advisors in Syria who assist the Syrian 'legitimate government' in its 'war against terrorism' and never indicated its possession of military bases or 'Iranian-linked' military bases throughout the entire duration of the war in Syria.

In my opinion, this is definitely not a statement to neglect or miss. Iran is deliberately announcing and exposing this key military fact, and is intentionally leveraging the acknowledgement of its military presence and role in Syria from the advisors level to a fully fledged military level that is related to military bases. This move of leverage is to replicate itself at the level of Iran's regional and international relations.

When some regional or international power uncovers and acknowledges a fact concerning its assets, power or influence, this means that it intends to take advantage of them and to benefit of them in some way or another. Thus, Iran intends a change in the current status quo. It publicly enters the arena of key players in the Syrian conflict and Syrian geography. This intended 'change' may take various and multiple kinds and goals starting from obtaining the international recognition of Iranian role and interests in Syria to the range of negotiating the scope and limits of these role and interests with othe players, or even may reach the goal of seeking to settle the Syrian situation in a desired way or according to the Iranian interests. All of this wide range is currently within Iranian reach, and we need to observe the developments and future Iranian measures to find out Iran's goals and intentions.

The bottom line of this development and the concurrent other developments is that many of the key players in the Syrian conflict are preparing the scene for a prospective settlement while waiting for the results of the Turkish elections next month.

Stay tuned with the exciting developments with my Twitter, Middle East Policy Blog, and NeoInternationalism.

From Moscow: The Chinese Proclamation of the New World Order

2023-03-30T15:28:00.000+00:00

The Chinese president's message to his Russian counterpart has been made abundantly clear and self-evident to the extent that it needs no explanatory comments. Simply put, it is a proclamation of China's new international role and objective, which marks a new era in terms of the international order and politics.

- I have no doubt about the disfunctioning of the current US-led western international order due to its intrinsic flaws, unleashed capitalism's problems, and the world's changing balance of power.

- Thus, a change in the post-cold war international order and politics is very prospective in the direction of more role and influence for the rising China and its forming international camp, as the victorious western powers couldn't maintain their political and economic paramount strengths, which limit their rivals respective strengths.

- In my opinion, the main problem of the current western-led international order is that it is actually based on and structured with an advanced and sophisticated kind of 'covered imperialism', which maintains, takes advantage and benefits from economic disadvantage and inequality of formerly occupied countries (colonies).

- Intertwined with the unleashed version of capitalism, the leading powers' foreign policies are strictly complying with their national interests at the expense of the values underpinning their liberal democratic ideology that plays at the theoretical sphere rather than the practical field.

- These policies in Libya and Syria, for example, serve as a solid example of this reality, which resulted in the destruction of the very promising international norm of 'Responsibility to Protect' due particularly to their Syria policies. The tremendous prolonged suffering of the Syrian people that lasted for over a 12 years is a living testimony to this fact.

- This cynicism entails supremacy in terms of power, assets and means that creates dependency on the leading powers for stability and economic security, which mainly requires to install and support agent regimes in countries of concern and interest.

- The current world developments indicate that this system is not sustainable for multiple national and international reasons and political and economic factors, then, change is coming according to these facts and realities.

- Chinese-Russian understanding and partnership will lead and pave the way for an aimed change in the current western-led international order. The rising role of China assisted by its relation with Russia will affect the geopolitical realities of the world alongside creating a change in the values system.

- Consequently, a key question would arise about the direction and shape of the prospective change. Getting two authoritarian or semi-authoritarian powers into the equation, which didn't internationally result in or bring about a genuine democratic effect in the first place puts it beyond our scholarship's ability to predict, so we need to observe the realities and analyze respectively.

- Meanwhile, we can explore the outline of changing balance of power and its implications. As the outcomes of the prospective change are unpredictable, I can expect, or even wish, that this change may affect the cynical nature of the western powers' foreign policies towards a genuine adherence to democratic and human rights values and norms as a deemed national interest to counter and balance the nascent international power of the new authoritarian player or players.

- Moreover, pro-democracy and human rights activists should take advantage of this international change to get a real and effectual support for their causes and activities, and thereby get availed of the changing world order and politics after frequent and significant setbacks they have been suffering, and this is the bottom line for me.

More updates will be available at https://nyaziji.wordpress.com

Middle East's New Era: China's Prominence and the U.S. Retreat

2023-03-16T20:10:00.003+00:00

Less than 3 months before this major development, I wrote this commentary, which was faced with underestimation by many western fellow scholars. They wouldn't believe it considering the announced strategic partnership between China and Saudi Arabia as just tactical maneuver by Saudi Arabia the well-established US backyard ally for timely purposes and gains. This position was widely adopted by the US political and governmental circles as well. I can understand this western stance as a typical behavior because the leading powers along with their mentalities are usually reluctant to recognize and acknowledge ‘change’ that affects their supremacy in general.

This Chinese-backed agreement constitutes a double blow to the US stand and interests in the Middle East in political terms for the following reasons. Firstly, China has shown and proved in the most practical and factual way that it has interests wide beyond the previously-established renown and accepted economic interests in the Middle East, and most importantly, that it has power and means to achieve them. Given that this Chinese reality extends to the both sides or axises of the Middle East, this makes the Chinese regional presence and influence of much more significance, as it included the key regional powers of the both vying camps, the pro and anti-US sides. Secondly, on the Saudi Arabian side, this move towards Iran in this very particular time of high nuclear and political tension between Iran and the US-led west significantly amplifies its political and strategic impact on the US regional stand and influence and reinforces the political independence and national interests of Saudi Arabia the ever-being US ally. Moreover, it strengthens the Iranian position in front of the current western pressure as well.

These regional developments indicate a strategic change and transparently mark the start of a new strategic and geopolitical phase in the Middle East. In this regard the US needs to reassess its Middle East policy and realign the wider scope of its interests in the region with its regional allies of states and substate actors’ interests to maintain its interests and uphold its regional influence, and needs also to recalibrate its regional strategy with the same actors and to the same end, The same advice also roughly applies to Israel, the key US-led camp’s regional power, with one essential addition that it needs to play with different cards in the region. Otherwise, it will be a key loser in the prospective regional change. In this regard, I believe that Israel’s Syria policy and role is a must and due course for Israel’s new deal to avoid a much-probable strategic loss or even defeat in the changing Middle East. The prospective implications for the region, the US and Israel will be addressed in future articles.

Syria Earthquake and the United Nations' Failure and Impunity

2023-03-14T19:20:00.001+00:00

Comparing aid offered by Deirezzor tribes and UN after Syria earthquake, calling on the UN to elect his grandfather instead of Mr. Guterres.

A very informative material about the failure and impunity of the UN in the aftermath of the Syria earthquake, which led me to a substantial question about the dire negligence of the essential human rights by the UN vis-a-vis politically-biased norms and rules. This is a major blow to the rights-based approach of human rights achieved after long struggle.

https://syriaaccountability.org/too-little-too-late-for-northwest-syria-lethal-un-negligence-and-the-imperative-of-an-accountability-process/