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Prediction – GBPUSD POSS TURN 5-8 Feb 2010

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See interim update post here

Prediction – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBPUSD Xmas Reversal from 24th December 2009

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Recent Results Speak of Themselves!

I just wanted to update you on how my predictions have been going on the GBP, which is one of the currencies I trade.
If you had taken some of my predictions on the GBPUSD you would have made around 800 points with only three trades since Christmas.

If you traded the DOW you would have netted about 880 points on that move alone. So what about the future, how will you improve your trading in the future. If you are serious and really want to be able to make money trading you have to know when to buy at the bottom and sell at the tops.

Money is made in trading by getting in at the tops or bottoms or as close as you can and selling or buying. You don’t always have to get in at the very top or bottom, you can always wait for you analysis to allow show you where these positions are then look for a retrace back to your predicted level.

If you don’t have a way to do that then, how will you make money in trading? Many traders that have seen what I do are amazed, no one showed them such radical ways to trade. What I learned I did the hard way, in fact I threw most of my books on trading away, because they simply do not work.

80% of people that lose trading do so because what they are doing is simply wrong, that and the fact that some brokers will allow you to open accounts with $25. You might as well write the broker a check and save yourself the frustration of bothering to trade. You will lose that money 100% sure on that.

Many of the people that I discuss trading with make all the mistake I made. Good traders are not born they are made. The ability to trade like I do can be learned, it’s not magic. One of the reasons I made my course on trading was to help out a friend who kept asking me to teach him. When I started my blog, other people saw that I was not some pretender making calls on a market that had already moved. I was making all my calls before the moves happened and I was confident enough to make those calls public.

Success in life, is earned through hard work. no matter what the advertising says, no one can trade from day one and become a successful trader. All the traders I know that are any good, have blown at least three accounts. Some of these accounts have been in excess of six figures.

Knowledge is the key to trading, you can walk the path yourself or you can follow in someones footsteps. knowing what I know now, I would rather have a guide then tread the path alone.

All the best

Mike

This is currently sitting on an AB=CD at 100%, now there is the chance it will make a push higher, we are also sitting at the 0.9000 which is a significant level due to the fact that people often target triple zeros. I am scaling in on this trade, if we have not seen a decline by 10pm then I would consider waiting for the next level.

The ideal target zone for a buy trade is 1.55287, as of today 8th Feb 2010 this level is still not exceeded so the analysis is still valid. The turn in time was forecast for the 6th of Feb 2010, as the markets did not trade on this day the expected turn time would be Monday 8th Feb 2010.

A break of 1.5……
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The GBP has been under a lot of pressure lately, however I have a turn in time forecast for the 6th of Feb, which is a Saturday, this would imply that it is either going to turn today 5th or on Monday 8th, I have forecast the possible prive levels that I am looking for a reversal at, once again always use stops. I am hoping that 1.56039 will hold. If the news for NFP is dollar positive, and we get a big GBP sell off, expect the turn to come in on Monday. Reversals on a Friday have a high failure rate. Remember we are trading the market not our analysis. It is always right, I am not.

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Usually when a level reacts as in the case of the GBPUSD, the move almost always gives a relatively small profit of 70-90 points. I would advise that those of you trading my analysis lock in 70-90 points on the first reaction – there is usually always the opportunity to place your stop at break even at some point in the trade.

News

For those of you that want to use a more effective method of trading, I would like recommend my forthcoming ebook “Precision Trading”. In my book I will show you how to run a trade and also how to extract money from your tradea even when you only get a relatively small move.

Please lookout for more details regarding the launch of Precision Trading on the blog if you are interested.

As predicted using my analysis methods the GBPUSD reacted at my second predicted level on the day forecast, it exceeded the point by only 9 pips. The decline is not over yet, if this is just a correction then we will see the gbp decline to below 1.58222. If it a first wave in a new up trend then 1.60570 would be my target area to exit this trade, this will be based on the wave structure formed.

What I am seeing at the moment is impulse waves down, indicating that possibly we are in a move to break the previous low. As the wave progresses it will be easier to evaluate its potential reversal zone using the techniques taught in my course precision trading. If you missed the original trade entry, wait for the retrace up, which is certainly comming.

More analysis on this as the move progresses

Hope that you have all had a nice Xmas and New Year and that you have not put on too many pounds of the non cash variety. Sorry that I have not made too many updates lately.

The GBPUSD has a potential turn in time for either today or tommorrow. As of this moment there is a perfect abcd formation on the daily. There is also a .78% fib ratio of the last swing, sometimes these ratios work together to provide additional resistance. I also have a saw wave pattern on the lower time frame chart hitting a good ratio of 2.618 so there is a high probability that this is the top. I have sold at 1.62985 stop at 1.63345

Happy Trading!