Minimum Publishable Unit (MPU)

Online Garage Sale

2009-11-11T07:00:00.001-06:00

I got in my car the other day and realized that I have a LOT of stuff lying around that I no longer need. For instance, there were 3 books on CD that I listened to during our move from Albuquerque to Fayetteville over 2 years ago. I don't really want to have an actual garage sale or learn the internals of selling on eBay or Craig's list, so I thought that I would have a small (3 items) sale to see if I can start downsizing the amount of stuff in my life. Basically, if you want one of these books on CD send me $6.00 (cash) or $7.00 (check). If you want all 3, I will take $15.00 (cash) or $18.00 (check).

"The Copper Scroll" by Joel C. Rosenberg. Currently listed as $9.50 + $3.99 shipping (NEW) and $5.00 + $3.99 (USED) on Amazon. The 4 CDs have each had 1 use and the packaging is in excellent condition.
"The Prometheus Deception" by Robert Ludlum. Currently listed as $7.66 + $3.99 shipping (NEW) and $4.98 + $3.99 (USED) on Amazon. The 6 CDs have each had 1 use and the packaging is in excellent condition.
"The Templar Legacy" by Steve Berry. Currently listed as $9.00 + $3.99 shipping (NEW) and $3.98 + $3.99 (USED) on Amazon. The 6 CDs have each had 1 use and the packaging is in excellent condition.

Leave a comment that let's me know how to contact you if you are interested in helping me reduce the amount of stuff in my life. BTW, if you want to pick up the items, I will discount the price because I don't have to ship them.

Distracted Driving? You Make the Call!

2009-10-06T18:30:00.001-05:00

Here is a random episode from today. Kristy is driving back from lunch on I-540 while I sit almost asleep in the passenger seat. Sophie had just asked for "Calle Ocho (???)" on the radio as Kristy blurted out, "I don't know what this idiot thinks he is doing!" Naturally, I looked up.

We had slowed down to ~60 MPH because 2 semi-trucks had decided to block the interstate by going about the same speed in both lanes. There was a guy zooming by us to get right behind these 18-wheelers. It's bad enough because he had to slam on his brakes to keep from hitting them. That's when I realized that this dude was reading his mail. No, I am not talking about his email. He was actually taking papers out of envelopes and holding the papers in front of his face to read.

So, I thought, "That's a pretty bad idea to be reading while driving" when he switched the cell phone from the left shoulder slump hold to the right hand/left ear across the face talking formation. Of course, he had to do that in order to reach across the steering wheel (after letting go of it) with his left hand and take a drink of what I HOPE was a soda. This was one big accident waiting to happen cruising along at ~75 MPH.

The real question for me is now "where did he cross the line?" Was it the reading or the reading plus phone? Just the phone? I am pretty positive that this is a distracted driving case. Actually, the most blatant that I have seen after 50 miles/day on the interstate for 6 years. SOOOO, anyone that has a story like this please share.

Reversals

2009-09-18T10:30:00.000-05:00

Guys, I don't feel like I am all alone out there any more. Several groups are either backing down from previous greenhouse gas positions (National Wheat Growers Association) or rethinking their position on anthropogenic global warming (American Physical Society). Another group is trying to have the editor of their society journal removed because of his views on AGW and climate change (American Chemical Society). The response of some ACS members really warms my heart (FYI, in the quotes below, Baum is the editor under fire) :

“I think it’s time to find a new editor.” -- ACS member Thomas E. D’Ambra
“Your editorial was a disgrace. It was filled with misinformation, half-truths, and ad hominem attacks on those who dare disagree with you. Shameful!” -- ACS member Dennis Malpass
“Baum’s remarks are particularly disquieting because of his hostility toward skepticism, which is part of every scientist’s soul. Let’s cut to the chase with some questions for Baum: Which of the 20-odd major climate models has settled the science, such that all of the rest are now discarded? [...] Do you refer to ‘climate change’ instead of ‘global warming’ because the claim of anthropogenic global warming has become increasingly contrary to fact?” -- ACS member Dr. Howard Hayden

There were other comments just as scathing. It is great to see that scientists (most of whom have had doubts all along) are speaking out when the issue comes home to their particular professional society. It seems that they might be worried that their credibility will be sullied by association with the claims of the AGW believers.

BTW, Greenpeace is now admitting that the Arctic will NOT be ice-free by 2030. However, they justify the LIE by saying that they were "emotionalizing" the issue.

2-10 Home Warranty Post #2

2009-09-09T05:45:00.001-05:00

Guys, I know that I haven't posted anything since April 1, but I am planning to make my way back to posting regularly again in the near future. That's almost SIX months, so only those who have put me in their feed reader will even know that I am posting this. It's amazing that a big dose of insomnia coupled with another solicitation from a horrible company like 2-10 Home Warranty might spur me to posting again. If you followed me before you know that I promised if I ever got another mass marketing postcard from 2-10 Home Warranty, then I would write a "2-10 Home Warranty Post #2." Well, a few days ago I got another offer in the mail that gave us the opportunity to renew or restart my home warranty from 2-10 Home Warranty. Basically, after our previous experience with them, they were asking if I want to set $460 on fire in my outdoor pottery fireplace. This company was so bad, that to avoid the wrath of Kristy, the Better Business, Bureau, and a fraud lawsuit, they sent us a reimbursement check for their technicians' visits to our house. They KNEW they would lose BIG TIME!

Here is the list of prices on the postcard that reminded me how much I dislike this company:

Basic Coverage -- $460
Enhance HVAC -- $75
Additional Pool/Spa -- $150
Swimming Pool/Spa -- $150
$60 Trade Fee -- $20 (I don't know what this is)
Water Softener -- $40
$45 Trade Fee -- $40 (I don't know what this is either)

Along with the prices for their warranty, they gave this list of expensive items that they would not actually pay to repair if they broke at your home that was supposedly covered by their warranty (again, based on my experience with them):

"Replacing your home heating system could cost $3,100."
"A major plumbing repair could cost $1,900."
"Replacing a water heater could cost $700."

Again if you missed "2-10 Home Warranty Post #1," let me be clear about what I am trying to say about this company: 2-10 Home Warranty Company sucks! If you are going to waste your money on a home warranty, DON'T BUY your coverage from 2-10 Home Warranty. Find some other company to waste your money. I don't have any recommendations on who is trustworthy in this regard. If you are getting a home warranty (paid for by a seller) for a new house, DON'T BUY your coverage from 2-10 Home Warranty.

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For a second time, I apologize for this rant after the fact. When we finally got rid of the coverage from 2-10 Home Warranty about 18 months ago (it was purchased by the seller of our home), I promised myself I would write a "2-10 Home Warranty Sucks" post every time I got an email, mass mailing, or "personal" note from the company. Hopefully, there will not be a "2-10 Home Warranty Post #3," but I am pretty sure that 2-10 Home Warranty will send me some more direct marketing materials. I can only hope that someone will stumble on this post about 2-10 Home Warranty from Google and back out of buying a new or renewal policy from 2-10 Home Warranty because 2-10 Home Warranty sucks.

For those that don't know, I am trying to increase the number of times I write 2-10 Home Warranty in this post so that it will increase the odds that this post will be found when someone searches for 2-10 Home Warranty.

Inflation? What's Inflation?

2009-04-01T22:30:00.003-05:00

I often wondered about the best way to define or describe inflation and have never found a way to present it in a way that satisfies my understanding. Statements like "Too many dollars chasing too few goods" or "an increase in the price of a basket of goods and services that is representative of the economy as a whole" have never had any real meaning to me. That is why when I heard Neal Boortz explain it a few weeks ago, it finally clicked for me. This is how he explained it:

Imagine that you are at an auction buying items from all over the world. You have a certain amount of money, someone else has half that amount, and someone else has three times your amount. The auction is going along, and the people bidding on things have some idea of what they are willing to pay for the items being sold. Now, let's say that someone calls timeout on the bidding and brings in a few stacks of hundred dollar bills. He sets them on the table and walks away saying, "Have at it, boys!" After the orderly scramble to get your share of the piles of money is over, the auction resumes. Now, think about what will happen to the bidding after everyone has more dollars to bid. The prices "sure as hell" aren't going down.

Now, our government has decided to put 10,000,000,000 hundred dollar bills (that's $1,000,000,000,000 for the Tceh graduates out there) into the U.S./world economy. Does anybody want to take a guess about what is going to happen to the price of EVERYTHING in the next couple of years? My bet is that we will look back on the Carter years with fondness after this stagflation hits us in the face.

Here's some free advice (I am sure it's worth what you paid for it): If you have credit card debt, pay it off. If you have adjustable rate loans tied to the FED rate, find a way to get out of it to something fixed. Basically, get out of debt as fast as you can. Interest rates are going to skyrocket once this inflation train starts rolling. With that cheerful thought, have a good evening.

Return to Illumination Hour

2009-03-27T07:30:00.002-05:00

I am re-posting this rant from last March. It was one of my first few posts (March 26, 2008). We are planning a similar party this year for Saturday, March 28. We will have help from 4 more people because my brother Adam and his family will be visiting. Illumination Hour will take place between 8:30 and 9:30 pm. Join us from your house if you get the chance.

As a side note, Rush Limbaugh jumped on this Thursday afternoon during his show. I am wondering if he was an early adopter of MPU as a daily read. Also, the "on the hour" radio news this morning has noted that there several businesses around the country doing Illumination Hour rather than Earth Hour.

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"Who Doesn't Want to Wear the Ribbon"
Originally posted March 26, 2008

Over the years I have been amazed at the absolutely meaningless gestures that people will go through to prove that they care about something. Many of you will recognize the post title from Kramer's run-in with some "street toughs" over his refusal to wear an AIDS awareness ribbon.

I guess everyone on the planet except me knows that having more ribbons on your lapel than Patton means that you care more about the rain forest, AIDS research, breast cancer, etc. than someone who doesn't wear them. Somehow this makes sense. Which brings me to what has many jazzed today, Earth Hour.

In case you don't know (I didn't until this morning), Earth Hour is a ritual that the inventors of Earth Day have brought us this year. Next Saturday (March 29) between 8 and 9 pm, we are supposed to power down "non-essential" electrical appliance and turn off all of our lights to show that we care about energy conservation and reducing our carbon footprint. Basically, the idea is to produce a voluntary blackout for an hour to reflect on the evilness of our comfortable but very energy intensive lifestyle. Jay Currie has a very different idea.

I have never read his blog before today, but from this post I get the idea that he is just about as tired of empty gestures as I am. He has decided to "Just Say No!" by keeping his lights on (ALL of them) during Earth Hour. I get confused on the inspiration for the idea but Tim Blair has planned an Illumination Hour on March 29 between 8 and 9 pm. As my buddy Chip would say, "What are the odds?" A couple of Tim's dedicated readers have decided to take it a step further and have a Carbon Party.

That is my kind of activism. During their HOUR OF POWER, it sounds like they plan on some sort of steel cage death match between the AC unit and the furnace with the winner getting to dominate the household environment for an hour. They also plan to run their vehicles, all electronic equipment, oven, and the washer and dryer. The hope is that they will consume enough electricity during the hour to more than offset any conservation accomplished during the Earth Hour.

If you're interested in becoming part of Illumination Hour to make a mockery of according to Samantha Burns, "Earth Hour stupidity, and all it represents," then visit her web page and sign the official online petition. If you don't have the activist, petition-signing bent, just forget what your Dad always told you for an hour and leave the light on when you leave a room this Saturday night.

Or better yet, you could call Motel 6 and ask them to keep several lights on for you.

Where Does My AGW Skepticism Originate?

2009-03-22T15:25:00.002-05:00

For those of who have discussed this with me, you know that I have discounted MAN-CAUSED global warming for a long time. In fact, based on things like the Surface Station Project, I wonder if we have any way of providing a long term climate record sufficient enough to say anything about climate trends. If you don't know, Anthony Watts (whose blog is a daily read for me) started a project to physically survey each of the climate stations in the United States Historical Climatological Network. He has completed 854 of the 1221 stations. He has found the following using the NOAA criteria for assessing the error in the data:

11% of the sites have errors less than 1 degree C
20% of the sites have errors between 1 and 2 degrees C
58% of the sites have errors between 2 and 5 degrees C
11% of the sites haves errors greater than 5 degrees C

Now, we have been told that an increase in the global temperature by 2 degrees C will lead to all kinds of disasters. I don't think that I have been sufficiently convinced that a global temperature has any meaning. However, for the sake of argument, I will go with that assumption for the moment. In the U.S. (where the best climatological data is found because we have $$ for it), 69% of the sites in our historic record set have errors greater than 2 degrees C. So, we can't measure temperature in the U.S. to a point where we can distinguish between measurement error and the catastrophic temperature signal. Combine that this presentation on the debunking of the famous "hockey stick" by Steve McIntyre, and it leaves me very skeptical that man is changing the global temperature by taking an SUV to soccer practice.

Do I think that the earth warmed in the 20th century? Yes.
Do I think that the warming was the result of man's emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases? No.
Will the earth be cooler or warmer 50 years from now? Yes.

Here is the point. Climate changes all the time, and there is very little if anything we can do about it (unless we figure out a way to control that big ball of fire in the sky). Today's climate is not perfect and tomorrow's won't be either. The best way (i.e, the cheapest and most proven way) to deal with a changing climate is to adapt. Here is what I mean:

If it's brutally hot in the summer where you live, move or live in a house with AC.
If it's brutally cold in the winter, move or live in a house with a good heating system.

These things are what humans have done throughout history. Why should we be any different?

TOTUS Has A Brand New Blog

2009-03-20T12:30:00.003-05:00

Ok. I can't help but laugh (Hey! it is either that or cry) about the fact that our current President is completely at a loss for words without the aid of a teleprompter. Apparently, POTUS doesn't even register the words he is saying. It's either that or he was hammered from the St. Patrick's Day party. I am hoping it is the former.

As the White House St. Patrick's Day party was winding down, President Obama, in a speech to those in attendance,

PAUSE

He can't even talk to those handpicked people at the White House without the teleprompter....

THINK ABOUT THAT FOR A SECOND

END PAUSE

thanked President Obama for inviting everyone over.

Here is a link to the story. That's funny! I don't care who you are (Sorry, Larry). So, yesterday I found out that the Teleprompter of the United States (TOTUS) has his own blog. Here is the link for this piece of brilliance. That was a million dollar (or more) idea right there. I truly wish I had thought of it. Enjoy and let me know if you think this is as funny and sad as I do.

2-10 Home Warranty Post #1

2009-03-19T17:25:00.002-05:00

A few days ago I got an offer in the mail that gave us the opportunity to renew or restart my home warranty from 2-10 Home Warranty. Basically, after our previous experience with them, they were asking if I want to set $460 on fire in my outdoor pottery fireplace. This company was so bad, that to avoid the wrath of Kristy, the Better Business, Bureau, and a fraud lawsuit, they sent us a reimbursement check for their technicians' visits to our house. They KNEW they would lose BIG TIME!

Here is the list of prices on the postcard that reminded me how much I dislike this company:

Basic Coverage -- $460
Enhance HVAC -- $75
Additional Pool/Spa -- $150
Swimming Pool/Spa -- $150
$60 Trade Fee -- $20 (I don't know what this is)
Water Softener -- $40
$45 Trade Fee -- $40 (I don't know what this is either)

"Replacing your home heating system could cost $3,100."
"A major plumbing repair could cost $1,900."
"Replacing a water heater could cost $700."

So, let me be clear about what I am trying to say about this company: 2-10 Home Warranty Company sucks! If you are going to waste your money on a home warranty, DON'T BUY your coverage from 2-10 Home Warranty. Find some other company to waste your money. I don't have any recommendations on who is trustworthy is this regard. If you are getting a home warranty (paid for by a seller) for a new house, DON'T BUY your coverage from 2-10 Home Warranty.

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I apologize for this rant after the fact. When we finally got rid of the coverage from 2-10 Home Warranty about 6 months ago (it was purchased by the seller of our home), I promised myself I would write a "2-10 Home Warranty Sucks" post every time I got an email, mass mailing, or "personal" note from the company. Hopefully, there will not be a "2-10 Home Warranty Post #2," but I am pretty sure that 2-10 Home Warranty will send me some more direct marketing materials. I can only hope that someone will stumble on this post about 2-10 Home Warranty from Google and back out of buying a new or renewal policy from 2-10 Home Warranty because 2-10 Home Warranty sucks.

For those that don't know, I am trying to increase the number of times I write 2-10 Home Warranty in this post so that it will increase the odds that this post will be found when someone searches for 2-10 Home Warranty.

Anyone Else Embarrassed?

2009-03-05T18:15:00.001-06:00

As a nation, we should be saying, "I'm REALLY, REALLY sorry about this!" to the United Kingdom (our staunchest ally and truly great partner in the world). I am sure that you are asking what has put this burr into Russ's saddle, so I will tell you.

Last week, as PM Gordon Brown made his trip over here to meet the President, he brought a gift with him: Ornamental pen holder made from the timbers of the Victorian anti-slave ship HMS Gannet - once called HMS President.

By the way, these sorts of gifts are traditionally exchanged when new US/UK leaders meet for the first time. Bear in mind that these gifts belong to the American and British people, and the President and Prime Minister are just stewards while in office. What did Mr. Obama give the British people? I am sure you are thinking that it has some real historical significance and meaning, and you would be WRONG.

Here is the gift that we gave them. Can I have a drumroll, please? ... ... ... We gave them 25 classic American films on DVD.

I will admit that, when I heard this on the Rush Limbaugh Show, I thought that Rush was having a little fun as he often does. I. Then, I realized that this is the sort of thing that Rush CANNOT spoof or parody, AND I felt really sick to my stomach. SOOO, I did a search and found this article in the UK Mail Online.

It appears that PM Brown tried to hide the gift from the British people and their press, and I don't blame him. I wish we hadn't given this gift either. What an embarassment!

Millenials To Meet Real Life?

2009-02-17T19:35:00.000-06:00

About 2 months ago, I read this Wall Street Journal editorial on "millenials" or kids born between 1980 and 2001. As I look at what is going on today in our political climate (see this previous post or google/youtube "Henrietta Hughes" or "Julio Osegueda"), I think this editorial sheds light on how we might have gotten there. The first paragraph of the main article is VERY telling:

"When Gretchen Neels, a Boston-based consultant, was coaching a group of college students for job interviews, she asked them how they believe employers view them. She gave them a clue, telling them that the word she was looking for begins with the letter 'e.' One young man shouted out, 'excellent.' Other students chimed in with 'enthusiastic' and 'energetic.' Not even close. The correct answer, she said, is 'entitled.' 'Huh?' the students responded, surprised and even hurt to think that managers are offended by their highfalutin opinions of themselves."

These students believed that someone who was meeting them for the first time had as high of opinion of them as their parents. To me, the real issue is that these young people entering the workplace expected (think they were entitled, maybe?) to have their jobs shaped to fit into a convenient box in their lives.

I think that the school of hard knocks is in store now that we are facing the worst economic conditions since the recession of the early 1980's (Don't be fooled by the "since the Great Depression" talk. We have seen this cycle in my lifetime.). I have a feeling that employers may use these lean times to rid their workplaces of the millenials who don't complete assignments because the manager or co-workers "didn't remind me." Here is a true recipe for disaster:

"Millennials also want things spelled out clearly. Many flounder without precise guidelines but thrive in structured situations that provide clearly defined rules and the order that they crave. Managers will need to give step-by-step directions for handling everything from projects to voice-mail messages to client meetings. It may seem obvious that employees should show up on time, limit lunchtime to an hour and turn off cellphones during meetings. But those basics aren't necessarily apparent to many millennials."

Until these basics become apparent, I predict that many will be living in their basements with their parents. As the article points out, the managers of these unmanageables are the results of the managers' own style of parenting. These indulgent parents are dealing with those indulged children in the workplace.

Ahh, the irony of baby boomers paying the piper for some of the problems they have caused. I guess there are good things that come out of hard economic times.

Good News and Stuff

2009-01-03T12:45:00.000-06:00

Guys, we finally made it home from the Mayo Clinic at about 11:45 Christmas Eve. Kristy finally saw a doctor that knew what was wrong with her. So, after about a year of hearing that she was normal (according to the test results) while not feeling anything close to normal, someone told her that he understood what was causing her such problems. We have some tough "vestibular rehabilitation" ahead but at least we know that there is a path to true normality (well, as close as Kristy gets to that).

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For those that don't already know, I had a no-holds barred battle with 4 (that's right, FOUR!) corneal ulcers during our trip to Minnesota. Thanks to those ulcers, both of the adults in our DePriest clan now have Mayo Clinic patient numbers. If you want to hear about a awful course of treatment, try this one on for size: Place one drop of Vigamox (ophthalmic solution) in left eye every hour for 7 days. That was the description on the prescription bottle. It included the hours during the night while sane people are sleeping. So, for two days, I woke up every hour and put a drop of magic eye potion in my left eye. After those first couple of days, I was able to reduce the frequency to just before bed and right as I woke up. So, that was a really restful few days of the holiday season.

Things are essentially back to normal now with the exception of maintenance drops every few hours and an oral antibiotic. I am just glad that I am not being fitted with a "glass" eye as my Christmas miracle. I had decided that if I lost the eye, then I would go with a glass eye with a laser beam that shoots out (sort of like the Terminator).

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In a previous post, I let you know about nominating Kristy for a 2008 Weblog award. It turns out that she is a finalist for the "Best Parenting Blog." Voting begins on January 5 and ends on January 12. Please be sure to stop by the Weblog Award Voting Site and vote for "Life on the Reflux Rollercoaster".

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I hope that I will get back to writing about the stuff that started this blog early in 2009. Life, politics, and economics have taken a priority over bad science for a few months. Maybe as Kristy begins to feel better, I will have the time to out the bad science that I see regularly in the media and scientific journals.

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Happy New Year!

Enough Already!

2008-12-16T00:10:00.001-06:00

Ok. I am sure that you have noticed some of the substitutes for real conversation enhancers that that have started to be accepted as valid over the last couple of years. They have really started to get on my nerves because they really just deflect questions or provide convenient excuses. That is how I have started to use them. Here are a few of my favorite (or least favorite).

"At the end of the day, ..."
"It is what it is."
"We are gonna shock the world." (In response to being an underdog)

Please feel free to add a few of your own.

Nominations Complete & Other Stuff

2008-11-22T22:30:00.002-06:00

UPDATE on 2008 Weblog Awards:

Guys, the nominations for the 2008 Weblog awards are complete for the "Best Parenting" category. Kristy ended up with a "Score" of 30. In that category, that puts her at #4 out of 79 nominees. Over the next week or so, the finalists in each category will be notified, and the voting will begin on December 8. I will let you know if Kristy is a finalist so that you can vote for her.

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As many of you know, I am in Minnesota this week. Kristy is being examined by the doctors at the Mayo Clinic. This facility is world class and occupies the greater part of downtown Rochester. I have been impressed by how nice these people are. It is quite obvious to me that Mayo spends money on getting the best people and doesn't worry about having the newest possible examination tables (see below). That tells me that they care more about patient care than image. We are very hopeful that these docs can find out what has been plaguing her for the better part of a year.

Another thing that I should mention is that many people feel that Fibromyalgia is a crap diagnosis or made-up syndrome. Before this week, I will admit that I was one of them. After spending over 2 hours here with the experts at Mayo, I was sure that was going to be the diagnosis because no one can seem to find out what the deal is with her. The woman calmly explained that, while she has some elements that fall into the syndrome, Kristy doesn't fit with fibromyalgia. That impressed me. I think that the diagnosis is probably misapplied in a lot of places, but here in Minnesota, I think that they have it right.

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I watched #2 Texas TCEH get massacred by Oklahoma tonight. While I am always happy when the Red Raiders get embarrassed, I just wish that the Sooners were not involved.

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I guess that is enough random stuff for one post.

Nominate Kristy's Blog!

2008-11-14T07:20:00.006-06:00

Ok! I know you like my blog, but I know who the best writer in the family is. The nominations for the Weblog Awards have started, and I think she writes the best parenting blog on the web. Sophie provides the material, and Kristy makes it hilarious.

I have started the nomination process, but you can nominate her as well. Here is the link for the nomination. Scroll down a little to find "Best Parenting Blog" and either 2nd my nomination or add your own. If you login via one of the supported authentication services (Typekey, WordPress, OpenID, Yahoo, AIM, etc.), your nomination will appear instantly. I don't have one of those accounts, so you probably won't see my nomination for about a day.

Chasing Mathematical Rabbits

2008-11-11T22:53:00.005-06:00

Well, I am traveling this week for work. What that really means is that I sit in front of the TV a lot after 11-12 hours of work (usually watching the World Series of Poker on ESPN). I know that makes me a little weird. As some of my friends know, I got interested in poker a couple of years because I think it is an interesting mathematical problem.

For me, it is not as interesting when you see all the cards. It is quite simple to calculate the odds of winning when you know the cards (as on ESPN). The interesting problem for me was figuring the best hands to play against whatever number of players that are dealt a hand. Being an engineer and computer programmer, it wasn't enough for me to guess which hands should or shouldn't be played against 8 others players. I spent a great deal of time writing a Monte Carlo program that would:

Randomly shuffle a deck of 52 cards
Deal cards for 2-10 players
Deal the community cards in Texas Hold'em (5 cards)
Determine the winner
Repeat millions of times

I now have a database of over 100 million hands. It would give aspiring poker players some insight into when they should chuck their hands. How valid are my simulations that use random numbers to simulate these hands of poker? That is a good question, and I asked it myself. Here is the summary of the community card hands compared to the traditionally calculated statistical probability for each hand:

Straight Flush: 0.001536% (Sim), 0.001539% (Prob) --> Ratio = 0.99776
Four of a Kind: 0.023971% (Sim), 0.024010% (Prob) --> Ratio = 0.99838
Full House: 0.143659% (Sim), 0.144058% (Prob) --> Ratio = 0.99723
Flush: 0.196929% (Sim), 0.196540% (Prob) --> Ratio = 1.00198
Straight: 0.393720% (Sim), 0.392465% (Prob) --> Ratio = 1.00320
Three of a Kind: 2.110972% (Sim), 2.112845% (Prob) --> Ratio = 0.99911
Two Pair: 4.754903% (Sim), 4.753901% (Prob) --> Ratio = 1.00021
Pair: 42.249452% (Sim), 42.256905% (Prob) --> Ratio = 0.99982
High Card: 50.124858% (Sim), 50.117737% (Prob) --> Ratio = 1.00014

So, I have confidence that I programmed the darn "simple" problem right. It still doesn't help my poker game much because my "dumb" players all play the entire hand regardless of their two starting cards.

The next step is a Bayesian approach (using an expert opinion about probable outcomes based on limited information) to eliminate poor starting hands and improve the usefulness results of the program. Since I am not a poker expert, I need help figuring out the fold percentages for each of the 169 starting hands. Don't forget this percentage will change depending on the number of players that have a chance to beat you!

Who's up for the challenge?

Is This Real?

2008-11-04T22:06:00.007-06:00

Well, I feel like I am going to throw up. I had this same feeling back in 1992 as the whole Hendrix College campus celebrated Bill Clinton's victory around me. It is good that the outcome is known early enough to get a good night's sleep. I do find some hope though:

Based on this logic, I can forget about sending my mortgage payments in the future, AND the gas station is going to just let the pumps run wild for anyone who shows up. WOW! What a country!

I have just two questions about this:

Does the mortgage thing happen now that the election is over or do we have to wait until after the inauguration?
Is this deal for all Americans or just the ones that voted for Obama?

I will have to call Chase Home Finance tomorrow to get answers to these very important questions, but I am still not sure how you prove that you voted for him. Anyone want to place bets about whether or not Chase will take my call seriously?

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On a serious note, I am glad that I live in Arkansas tonight rather than Kentucky, Indiana, South Carolina, Utah, West Virginia, Alaska , or Massachusetts. These are the seven states that still ban alcohol sales in some form on election day. I think there may be a need to stop by Crossover Liquor (in Fayetteville) to pick up some Maker's Mark before the night is over. I am just glad the election is behind us, and maybe a drink or eight will make it seem like a happier outcome.

Congrats to the Obama supporters. It is a historic night for this country, and the moment will be remembered for a long time. If I were you, I wouldn't count on him fulfilling many of those campaign promises. As for me, the only campaign promises he made that I actually believed are the tax hikes.

BTW, increasing taxes and practicing trade isolation are the worst possible things that you can do in a slow down or recession (just ask Herbert Hoover), but that seems to be Obama's economic plan.

In any case, I am installing an intrusion detector on my wallet that wails "I told you so!" over and over when taxes are increased and praying that the next four years won't be as bad as I think they are going to be.

To Blog or Not To Blog?

2008-10-16T22:00:00.002-05:00

I have spent the better part of a month not blogging. Mainly, I have boycotted writing because the global warming goofballs are realizing that people don't want to hear about how bad they are treating the earth when they are constantly hearing about how far in the toilet the economy has gone. Also, I almost had a coronary the last time I looked at the 401k balance [NOTE TO SELF: Don't go to www.401k.com again for a while].

However, I have been thinking about why we are having a "crisis" on Wall Street. In my mind, it boils down to one thing: The government started messing with the free market. I think this conclusion is legitimate when I ponder the following:

The Community Reinvestment Act -- This brillance passed by Congress during the Carter Administration required banks to make approximately 30% of their loans to people who probably weren't going to pay them back. That is truly dumb business, but banks "wrote it off" and continued to extend credit to each other.
The Government Sponsored Entities (GSE's) -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The leaders of these two abominations used the organizations as their own personal piggy bank by taking tremendous risks while inflating their asset sheets. They were able to do this because they are sponsored by the government and didn't truly answer to anyone. That is, until the whole house of cards crumbled around them bringing the financial markets to a stand still.
I watched Treasury Secretary Paulsen ask to become the czar of the entire U.S. financial system (no review by the judicial system or congressional oversight of any of the decisions of the Treasury Secretary's decisions in this "crisis"). This insulted everything associated with free markets and capitalism. I truly couldn't believe that this was a sincere proposal.

Finally, we are asked to believe that the same clowns that created the mess that we witnessed over the last few weeks will be able to fix the problem. So, I asked myself if I could say anything coherent about this mess. AND, the answer came back, "Not even close."

I truly can't wait for the election to be over. I am pretty much resigned to the fact that my taxes will go WAY up because the Dims will control the White House and both houses of Congress. I guess it's about fairness. Hopefully, they will be dumb enough to actually try to implement some of their proposals. If they do, I am pretty sure that we will get another 1994-style mid-term election.

In any case, I should probably do all my blogging between now and inauguration day. After that, I am not sure that we won't have a "Fairness Doctrine" for talk radio and a "Hate Speech Code" for the blogosphere.

Can anyone tell that I am a little bit depressed about the state of our nation?

Parts for Sell?

2008-09-24T22:45:00.000-05:00

As I mentioned in my 101 Things About Me (see #22), I have pretty random thoughts sometimes. Today, for some reason, my mind drifted to organ donation of all things. Don't ask why. Sometimes, it is better to just accept it. There was probably an organ donation PSA on the radio that I subconsciously absorbed. Anyway, we constantly hear about the lack of donors for organs and I got started wondering about how to change that.

My simple answer to this equation of lack of donors is to provide some sort of financial incentive. As with a lot of things, the simple answer brings in philosophical support or objection. That's why I thought about writing this post. The money involved will not directly impact the person donating the organs, but the donor's family could benefit from donation. In fact, the one group of people that suffer the most in this "transaction" are the only ones that DON'T get compensated for the donation. The hospital and surgeon get paid well for performing the operation. The organ bank gets paid for "procuring" the organ. The recipient gets a new organ and (possibly) a greatly extended lifespan. If people knew that their loved ones would benefit from organ donation, then it would be more likely for them to end up checking the organ donation. What do you guys think about this?

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On a different but related note, blood banks in this country are constantly telling us that the blood supplies are at critically low levels. I think the reason for this is a lack of incentive to donate (other than goodwill). In New Mexico, we had a "scandal" where the salaries of the executives of the blood donation organization (NOT the Red Cross) were published and were well in excess of 6 figures (before the decimal point). This caused quite a stir because all the profits from the operation were the result of blood products derived from donors who received ZERO compensation. In addition, a person who had donated gallons (literally) of blood over the years was charged something like $600 for a unit of blood (the $ figure is likely off, but you get the point) by this same blood donation organization.

As many of you know, I have donated plasma MANY times over the years, and I have the scars to prove it. Those trips to Westgate Biologicals weren't really donations because I never did it for free. However, I can't actually make myself donate during blood drives. The incentive isn't there. I guess I am not much of the "hero" type. What are your thoughts on this one?

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FULL DISCLOSURE: I am an organ donor. "Not that there's anything wrong with that."

I warned you. This one is truly random.

Stand Up for Chuck

2008-09-14T11:15:00.005-05:00

Well, if nothing else, the political season usually provides me with a few laughs. This is pretty sad because most of the time politicians are just arguing about the different proposals for re-distributing my income to someone who didn't earn it. This week did provide me with good chuckle when the Democratic VP candidate Joe Biden spoke in Missouri. At a fairly large rally in Columbia, he decided to recognize State Senator Chuck Graham (in a wheelchair):

"I am also told that, uh, uh, Chuck Graham, state senator, is here. Stand up, Chuck, let 'em see you... Oh, God love you. What am I talking about? I tell you what, you're making everybody else stand up, though, pal. I tell you what, stand up for Chuck."

You think I am making this up, right? So, here it is on YouTube:

I am pretty sure that Biden is confused about who is President. It is either that or he believes that John Kerry went ahead and made sure people that people like Chuck would walk again. Now, you are asking yourself, "Self, what the HELL is Russ talking about now?"

I am glad you asked that question. Here is a quote from John Edwards in Iowa back in 2004:

"If we do the work that we can do in this country, the work that we will do when John Kerry is president, people like Christopher Reeve are going to walk, get up out of that wheelchair and walk again."

For those of you who aren't aware, John Kerry decided after losing in 2004 not to allow people like Chuck and Christopher to walk again. Perhaps "the One" will find it in his heart to do it. Of course, Obama can only get to this is AFTER he is elected president, stopped the rise of the oceans, and started the healing of our planet.

You have to prioritize these things. Anyone else thinking, "God/Messiah Complex"? Man, I love the Presidential season. You get great comedy. AND, it's free!

Go Ahead, Make Her Day

2008-09-04T21:45:00.002-05:00

Ok, I just love this picture of the next Vice President of the United States. There is just something about a nice looking woman with a fully automatic weapon.

The funny thing is that questions have surfaced about whether or not Sarah Palin is tough enough to face down foreign leaders. Clearly, they haven't seen her shoot.

Meltdown at the DePriest House

2008-08-30T21:00:00.002-05:00

The Fighting Texas Aggies just lost to the Red Wolves of Arkansas State University. The final score was 18-14. The Ags missed 2 field goals and failed to punch it in with 2nd and goal from the 1. Don't bother calling because I am not answering the phone.

I blame myself. Sophie is not wearing her Aggie Cheerleader uniform. I figured we were playing ASU and the Ags wouldn't need the big guns. I don't think I will make that mistake again. Soph has tried to comfort me the only way a 4 year-old knows how. She gave me a big hug. I did feel better and the game didn't seem important anymore.

I will be ok in a little while. Probably not tonight, but definitely by tomorrow morning. If this had happened 10 years ago, I would have been in a funk for a week. I guess that is called "perspective". I just hope this whole season doesn't need a lot of this kind of perspective.

By the way, I wouldn't call Chip or Cable after this particular game. They haven't figured out this perspective thing yet. I hope your teams fared better this weekend.

College Football Returns!!!

2008-08-28T21:15:00.006-05:00

Well, it has been over 8 months since the last college game. The wait for real football (not spring games, recruiting, or NFL exhibition games) is over. I am very excited about it. College football is my favorite sport these days (once this was major league baseball). Sadly, the two teams that I am interested in watching are playing "directional" schools, so they will not be on television.

I gave you my reasons for hating soccer last week, so this week I will give you my reasons for loving college football.

Debates -- The system of determining a champion in college football's highest classification is so screwed up that it actually encourages debates about "Mythical National Champions". For example, invite an Alabama and Arkansas fan to your next party and ask them who won the 1964 National Championship. I bet they have different answers. Arkansas's argument is so legitimate that the AP changed their rules after that season.

Teams You Love To Hate -- To about half of the population of college football fans, the Fighting Irish are a symbol of all that is wrong with our country (entitlement, elitist, etc.) while the other half believes that Notre Dame is the best team on the planet. My list of teams that I want to see lose every Saturday includes Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan, Miami, Oklahoma and Texas. I would likely throw a big party if all were to lose on the same day.

Irrational Fans -- These are the guys that lurk on message boards for the faintest hint that a 17-year old from Timbuktu who runs a 4.3 40-yard dash has included their school in his final three. It is kind of sad that their weekends can be ruined because the whims of a teenager didn't include attending their favorite school. These irrational fans include my dad who begins EVERY season with the expectation that the Razorbacks will lose at most 2 games because, "The Hogs are good, but you know how stout the SEC is. You KNOW that they would win any other conference."

Rivalries -- Michigan/OSU, USC/Notre Dame, Texas/Texas A&M (the BEST ONE!), etc. Sure, I know the Yankees and Red Sox don't like each other, but you will see the players that play for both teams during their career. The same goes for the Bears and Packers. In college football, they play 3 hours for 365 days of bragging rights that can't be escaped until the next clash with that rival. You will find strange and humiliating wagers associated with these games.

So, if you are wondering my plans for weekends over the next few months, I will be trying to find someway to watch football on Saturdays. If fate is kind to me, the Aggies will be on TV. If not, I will be re-living the last two Fridays after Thanksgiving. I have bragging rights until that day. That's when they go up for grabs in the Lonestar Showdown.

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**Cross Posted at the Arkansas 7-on-7 Football.

Kindred Spirits*

2008-08-16T23:30:00.002-05:00

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Well, my soccer post generated more than just a comment. In my email, I had a note from my buddy Cable who was mentioned in the post. He has put even more thought into his hatred of the foul Un-American game that is soccer. I asked him if I could put the email into my blog. He has agreed.

So, what should you know about Cable? He is a nuclear engineer working as a researcher at Texas A&M. He will finish his Ph.D. soon, right Cable? He has two kids and a very patient wife. I imagine living with him is almost as difficult as living with me. Basically, I believe that the only thing that has ever caused us to disagree is an R. C. Slocum/Jackie Sherrill debate that has gone on for at least 10 years now. He has finally (reluctantly) admitted that the dismissal of R. C. as the Aggies head coach was a mistake.

Without further ado, here is Cable's top ten list. It even finishes with a David Letterman twist.

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*Post by Guest Blogger Cable Kurwitz

Hey Russ,

Nice article. You should read this Guardian editorial. However, there is growing evidence that it is a weak link [between soccer and communism/socialism].

I continue to stand by my soccer = socialism theory and feel Jack Kemp said it best when he stated, "a distinction should be made that football is democratic capitalism, whereas soccer is a European socialist sport." I do not agree with Franklin Foer who stated in his book, “[soccer] represents a direct threat to American culture and tradition.” I felt his conclusions were more anti-American than anti-soccer. I dislike the global game of soccer because of its simplicity, constantly running clock, and the idea that you could essentially never take risks and tie every match. I dislike the European terms, the lack of grading, and/or the failure to develop a method of accurately grading players performance. Most of all, I dislike the continued desire by those socialists within our borders to be more like the world and embrace soccer. As Europe slouches back toward socialism and a communist wave pours over South America, I realize that doing the opposite of what world thinks is the better course of action. So, with this in mind, here is my top 10 list of arguments against soccer:

Soccer is the ultimate game of the state that seeks to smash the individual and promote the state. Why do you always see the shots of the Proletariat cheering with the little, faceless players on the large expanse of some super stadium with a name like The Giant of Alberdi or the Big Stick? Baseball is perfect because it promotes the individual. A bad pitcher can’t be helped by the rest of the team. Also, because all 162 games in baseball count (no friendlies), one can compile statistics to accurately rank each player. As in America, the individual triumphs.
Why do the officials appear to be secret police types with black uniforms?
What is a yellow or red card? Do you collect them like baseball cards? What would you do if someone ran up and shoved a yellow index card in your face? I would have a hard time not laughing or ripping it up and handing it back to Mr. KGB.
My favorite example is the organized hooligans associated with each team similar to the Nazi stormtroopers or red guards. Heck, this is celebrated in Berkeley with a match of anarchists named after the Kronstadt or communist aptly named the Left Wing.
Everyone gets an equal chance to play!
As one city official told me (and I later saw on TV), “We don’t keep score so everyone wins.”
As Russ mentioned, soccer is played with the feet like some animal versus proper sports that utilize our hands.
Why is the timing of the world cup similar to the typical Russian/Chinese 5 year plan?
Soccer is the only sport with the capability of ruining a WWII Stallone movie.
Finally, soccer shoe maker Umbro markets the Zyklon shoe. What a gas!

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Thanks, Cable. I don't feel like the lone kook on this one anymore. There are at least two of us.

Why I Hate Soccer

2008-08-14T22:30:00.000-05:00

Over the years, people have noticed that I have distinct dislike for the game of soccer. When people first asked about the hostility toward futbol, I would usually say something like, "It is boring." The dislike was actually a gut feeling that went beyond the fact that the game is boring. I just didn't know how to say, "I have a visceral hatred for the game that I can't quite define."

Years later, my buddy (Cable) brought forth the theory that the popularity of soccer in Latin America was well correlated with the spread of communism in the same region. So, for lack of a better explanation, this became my answer when I was asked about the growing hostility toward the game. I know that correlation is not the same as causation, but I wanted to avoid being associated with anything that might be communistic.

After pondering the question for some time, I think I have finally hit on the real answer. First, I believe that three things separate humans from animals: (1) a soul; (2) the ability to reason; and (3) opposable thumbs. While I don't want to call soccer players and fans soulless (even though it is possible), I think that the game of soccer insults at least two of these three differences. In other words, it draws us closer to animals rather than further from them.

Here is how soccer works against reason. The basis of the human intellect and reason is our brain. A very hard skull protects it from injury. Parents are now putting helmets on kids for all manner of activities. In sports that have the possibility of head injury, they put on helmets. The athletes getting prepared for football, baseball, cycling, hockey, and NASCAR stop to put on a helmet to protect their brain. Think about that. The redneck climbing into a race car puts on a helmet while youth soccer coaches encourage kids to go home and practice hitting the soccer ball with their heads. This is contrary to every human instinct of protecting the brain. The only other sport that comes close to this is the brutality of professional boxing.

Soccer violates another of the differences between humans and animals when it requires the players to ignore their hands. Other sports (basketball, tennis, curling, even poker) pay homage to the fact that we have opposable thumbs and can pick up and control tools with our hands. In soccer, you can be kicked out of the game for exercising the instinct to use your hands.

So, there you have it. That's why I hate soccer.

AND, I didn't even get into the non-competitive attitude of youth soccer and how that will damage American competitiveness in the world economy. Before you say it, that doesn't make me a kook.

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Here is a very good article about the some of the problems facing the nuclear renaissance that I wrote about earlier.