Minimum Publishable Unit (MPU)

Summary of April 27, 2019 Oaklawn Contest

2019-04-29T20:00:00.000-05:00

Time got away from me while trying to follow the contest between Lee, Adam, and me on Saturday. Below are the results race by race (from Race 4) reconstructed from my phone.

************************

Race 4 (3-7-6-5) Selections:

Adam ($15):

$1.00 Exacta Box: 2, 3, 4 ($6)

Return: $0.00

$1.00 Trifecta: 2, 3, 4 ($6)

Return: $0.00

$1.00 Double: 2,3,4 / 1 ($3)

Return: $0.00

Lee ($6):

$0.50 Trifecta: 3 / 5,7 / 2,4 ($2)

Return: $0.00

$0.50 Trifecta: 7 / 3,5 / 2,4 ($2)

Return: $0.00

$0.50 Trifecta: 5 / 3,7 / 2,4 ($2)

Return: $0.00

Russ ($10):

$10 Win: 5 ($10)

Return: $0.00

Standings after Race 4:

Russ: $88.80
Lee: $82.70
Adam: $60.00

************************

Race 5 (3-4-2-6) Selections:

Adam ($5):

$1.00 Exacta: 1/ 3, 8, 9 ($3)

Return: $0.00

$0.50 Trifecta: 1,8 / 1,8 / 3,9 ($2)

Return: $0.00

Lee ($6):

$0.50 Trifecta: 8 / 1,2,3 / 4,9 ($3)

Return: $0.00

$0.50 Trifecta: 2 / 1,3,8 / 4,9 ($3)

Return: $0.00

Russ ($9):

$5.00 Win: 1 ($5)

Return: $0.00

$2.00 Exacta: 1 / 4,8 ($4)

Return: $0.00

Standings after Race 5:

Russ: $79.80
Lee: $76.70
Adam: $55.00

************************

Race 6 (5-2-1-8) Selections:

Adam (Pass):

No selections (Pass)

Lee ($4):

$0.50 Trifecta: 8 / 1,5 / 3,6 ($2)

Return: $0.00

$0.50 Trifecta: 5 / 1,8 / 3,6 ($2)

Return: $0.00

Russ ($15):

$10.00 Exacta: 8 / 5 ($10)

Return: $0.00

$5.00 Exacta: 5 / 8 ($5)

Return: $0.00

Standings after Race 6:

Lee: $72.70
Russ: $64.80
Adam: $55.00

************************

Race 7 (10-1-9-2) Selections:

Adam ($6):

$1.00 Trifecta Box: 1, 9, 10 ($6)

Return: $40.20

Lee ($15.60):

$0.50 Trifecta: 10 / 7,8,9 / 1,2,4 ($4.50)

Return: $0.00

$0.50 Trifecta: 9 / 7,8,9 / 1,2,4 ($4.50)

Return: $0.00

$0.10 Superfecta: 10 / 7,8,9 / 1,2,4 / 3,4,5,6 ($3.30)

Return: $0.00

$0.10 Superfecta: 9 / 7,8,10 / 1,2,4 / 3,4,5,6 ($3.30)

Return: $0.00

Russ ($25):

$25.00 Win: 10 ($25)

Return: $57.50

Standings after Race 7:

Russ: $97.30
Adam: $89.20
Lee: $57.10

************************

Race 8 (8-3-9-7) Selections:

Adam ($20):

$0.50 Trifecta: 1,3,7 / 1,3,7 / 1,3,7,9 ($6)

Return: $0.00

$5.00 Show: 9 ($5)

Return: $15.50

$2.00 WPS: 7 ($6)

Return: $0.00

Lee ($7.00):

$0.50 Trifecta: 7 / 1,2,3 / 2,3,4 ($3)

Return: $0.00

$0.50 Trifecta: 3 / 1,2,7 / 2,3,4 ($3)

Return: $0.00

Russ ($10):

$10.00 Win: 7 ($10)

Return: $0.00

Standings after Race 8:

Russ: $87.30
Adam: $84.50
Lee: $50.10

************************

Race 9 (4-1-6-5) Selections:

Adam ($37):

$0.10 Superfecta Box: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 ($12)

Return: $0.00

$0.50 Trifecta: 6 / 1,2,3,4 / 1,2,3,4 ($6)

Return: $0.00

$1.00 Exacta: 6 / 1,2,3,4 ($4)

Return: $0.00

$5.00 Win: 6 ($5)

Return: $0.00

$10 Double: 6 / 1 ($10)

Return: $0.00

Lee ($17.00):

$0.50 Trifecta: 5 / 1,2,3,4 / 3,4,6,8 ($8.50)

Return: $0.00

$0.50 Trifecta: 1 / 2,3,4,5 / 3,4,6,8 ($8.50)

Return: $0.00

Russ ($25):

$25.00 Win: 6 ($25)

Return: $0.00

Standings after Race 9:

Russ: $62.30
Adam: $47.50
Lee: $57.10

************************

Race 10 (5-1-10-7) Selections:

Adam ($16):

$0.50 Superfecta Box: 1 / 2,7 / 2,3,5,7 / 2,3,5,7 ($6)

Return: $0.00

$0.50 Trifecta: 1 / 2,3,5,7 / 2,3,5,7 ($6)

Return: $0.00

$2.00 Exacta: 1 / 2,7 ($4)

Return: $0.00

Lee ($12):

$0.50 Trifecta: 7 / 1,2,6 / 3,4,8,9 ($6)

Return: $0.00

$0.50 Trifecta: 2 / 1,6,7 / 3,4,8,9 ($6)

Return: $0.00

Russ ($41):

$25.00 Win: 1 ($25)

Return: $0.00

$4.00 Exacta Key Box: 1 / 2,7 ($16)

Return: $0.00

Final Standings:

Adam: $31.50
Russ: $21.30
Lee: $21.10

April 27 Race 3 Results, Race 4 Selections

2019-04-27T14:34:00.004-05:00

Here are the Oaklawn Park contest standings after Race 3 on April 27:

Race 3 result: 6-1-3-8

Adam:

Bankroll at risk ($7.00)

$2.00 Exacta Box: 3, 6 ($4)

Return: $0.00

$0.50 Trifecta: 3,6 / 3,6 / 7,8,9 ($3)

Return: $0.00

$3.00 Double: 11 / 3 ($3)

Return: $0.00 (started Race 2)

Remaining Bankroll

$75.00 + $0.00 = $75.00

Lee:

Bankroll at risk ($7.00)

$0.50 Trifecta: 6 / 3,7,8 / 5,7,8 ($3.50)

Return: $0.00

$0.50 Trifecta: 3 / 6,7,8 / 5,7,8 ($3.50)

Return: $0.00

Remaining Bankroll

$88.70 + $0.00 = $88.70

Russ:

Bankroll at risk ($10.00)

$3.00 Exacta: 7 / 6 ($3)

Return: $0.00

$5.00 Exacta: 6 / 7

Return: $0.00

$2.00 Double: 6,7 / 5

Return: -- (see Race 4)

$2.00 Double: 11 / 3,6,7,8 ($8)

Return: 10.80 (started Race 3)

Remaining Bankroll

$88.00 + $10.80 = $98.80

Standings after Race 3:

Russ: $98.80
Lee: $88.70
Adam: $75.00

************************

Race 4 Selections:

Adam ($15):

$1.00 Exacta Box: 2, 3, 4 ($6)
$1.00 Trifecta: 2, 3, 4 ($6)
$1.00 Double: 2,3,4 / 1 ($3)

Lee ($6):

$0.50 Trifecta: 3 / 5,7 / 2,4 ($2)
$0.50 Trifecta: 7 / 3,5 / 2,4 ($2)
$0.50 Trifecta: 5 / 3,7 / 2,4 ($2)

Russ ($10):

$10 Win: 5 ($10)

April 27 Race 2 Results, Race 3 Selections

2019-04-27T13:55:00.000-05:00

Here are the Oaklawn Park contest standings after Race 3 on April 27:

Race 2 result: 11-12-2-6

Adam:

Bankroll at risk ($12.00)

$0.50 Trifecta: 11 / 4,5 / 4, 5 ($1)

Return: $0.00

$1.00 Exacta Box: 4, 11 ($2)

Return: $0.00

$1.00 Exacta Box: 5, 11 ($2)

Return: $0.00

$2.00 Show: 4, 5 ($4)

Return: $0.00

$3.00 Double: 11 / 3 ($3)

Return: -- (see Race 3)

Remaining Bankroll

$82.00 + $0.00 = $82.00

Lee:

Bankroll at risk ($4)

$2.00 Win: 11 ($2)

Return: $3.20

$2.00 Show: 6 ($2)

Return: $0.00

$1.00 Double: 3 / 11 ($1)

Return: $7.00 (started Race 1)

Remaining Bankroll

$85.50 + $10.20 = $95.70

Russ:

Bankroll at risk ($8.00)

$2.00 Double: 11 / 3,6,7,8 ($8)

Return: -- (see Race 3)

$3.00 Double: 2,3 / 11 ($6)

Return: $21.00 (started Race 1)

Remaining Bankroll

$77.00 + $21.00 = $98.00

Standings after Race 2:

Russ: $98.00
Lee: $95.70
Adam: $82.00

************************

Race 2 Selections:

Adam ($7):

$2.00 Exacta Box: 3, 6 ($4)
$0.50 Trifecta: 3,6 / 3,6 / 7,8,9 ($3)

Lee ($7):

$0.50 Trifecta: 6 / 3,7,8 / 5,7,8 ($3.50)
$0.50 Trifecta: 3 / 6,7,8 / 5,7,8 ($3.50)

Russ ($10):

$3.00 Exacta: 7 / 6
$5.00 Exacta: 6 / 7
$2.00 Double: 6,7 / 5

April 27, 2019 Race 1 Results, Race 2 Selections

2019-04-27T13:12:00.001-05:00

Here are the Oaklawn Park contest standings after Race 1 on April 27:

Race 1 result: 3-6-7-2

Adam:

Bankroll at risk ($6.00)

$0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 2,3 / 6,7,8,9 ($4)

Return: $0.00

$1.00 Exacta Box: 2, 3 ($2)

Return: $0.00

Remaining Bankroll

$94.00 + $0.00 = $94.00

Lee:

Bankroll at risk ($10.50)

$0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 2,3 / 6,8,9 ($3)

Return: $0.00

$0.50 Trifecta: 2,6 / 2,3,6 / 3,6,8,9 ($5.50)

Return: $0.00

$1.00 Double: 2 / 11 ($1)

Return: $0.00

$1.00 Double: 3 / 11 ($1)

Return: -- (see Race 2)

Remaining Bankroll

$89.50 + $0.00 = $89.50

Russ:

Bankroll at risk ($15.00)

$0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 2,3 / 6,8,9 ($3)

$0.00

$0.50 Trifecta: 8 / 2,3 / 2,3 ($1)

$0.00

$0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 8 / 2,3 ($1)

$0.00

$2.00 Exacta Box: 2, 3 ($4)

Return: $0.00

$3.00 Double: 2,3 / 11 ($6)

Return: -- (see Race 2)

Remaining Bankroll

$85.00 + $0.00 = $85.00

Current standings:

Adam: $94.00
Lee: $89.50
Russ: $85.00

************************

Race 2 Selections:

Adam ($12):

$0.50 Trifecta: 11 / 4,5 / 4, 5 ($1)
$1.00 Exacta Box: 4, 11 ($2)
$1.00 Exacta Box: 5, 11 ($2)
$2.00 Show: 4, 5 ($4)
$3.00 Double: 11 / 3 ($3)

Lee ($4):

$2.00 Win: 11 ($2)
$2.00 Show: 6 ($2)

Russ ($8):

$2.00 Double: 11 / 3,6,7,8 ($8)

Friendly Oaklawn Park Contest for April 27, 2019

2019-04-27T00:00:00.000-05:00

My brothers and I decided to have a contest on the Oaklawn Park card for April 27. Each of us starts with a fictional bankroll of $100. We have restricted the wagering to the following:

Win
Place
Show
Exacta
Trifecta
Superfecta
Double

As the contest goes on, we are allowed to use any winnings in future races. The brother with the biggest pile of fake cash at the end of the day wins the contest.

Adam will risk $6 his bankroll in the first race with these wagers:

$0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 2,3 / 6,7,8,9 ($4)
$1.00 Exacta Box: 2, 3 ($2)

Lee will bet $10.50 in the first race this way:

$0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 2,3 / 6,8,9 ($3)
$0.50 Trifecta: 2,6 / 2,3,6 / 3,6,8,9 ($5.50)
$1.00 Double: 2 / 11 ($1)
$1.00 Double: 3 / 11 ($1)

I will put $15 in the fake pools in this first race:

$0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 2,3 / 6,8,9 ($3)
$0.50 Trifecta: 8 / 2,3 / 2,3 ($1)
$0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 8 / 2,3 ($1)
$2.00 Exacta Box: 2, 3 ($4)
$3.00 Double: 2,3 / 11 ($6)

I will post our contest picks during the racing day tomorrow.

Oaklawn Park Selections for April 4, 2019

2019-04-03T22:00:00.000-05:00

We are just a couple of weeks from the Arkansas Derby, and the Triple Crown trail has never been more murky. In any case, Oaklawn is looking forward to a great weekend of racing highlighted by the Carousel Stakes on Saturday. Here is the Thursday, April 4, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the Python PyPick software (a Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

Race 1: 4-7-5-2
Race 2: 1-3-4-5
Race 3: 7-1-4-5
Race 4: 3-7-1-9
Race 5: 9-4-10-2
Race 6: 3-7-10-11
Race 7: 2-8-5-7
Race 8: 6-7-5-8
Race 9: 1-9-2-6

The wagers that I am tracking using this spreadsheet are the following:

$2 Win bet on top pick
$1 Exacta Key Box

Top Pick WITH others

$0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel

Top Pick WITH others WITH others
others WITH Top Pick WITH others
others WITH others WITH Top Pick

Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Selections for Oaklawn Park for March 29, 2019

2019-03-29T06:00:00.000-05:00

The end of March is closing in on us, and by the end of today, we will know the 2019 Elite Eight in the NCAA basketball tournament. The Kentucky Derby is just around the corner - the first Saturday in May. Here are the Friday, March 29, 2019 selections for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the my PyPick software (a Python-based Monte Carlo racing simulation).

Race 1: 6-3-8-4
Race 2: 2-8-3-7
Race 3: 4-7-2-8
Race 4: 8-7-2-5
Race 5: 3-7-1-2
Race 6: 5-2-8-7
Race 7: 8-3-4-1
Race 8: 7-11-5-8
Race 9: 12-7-1-11

The wagers that I am tracking using this spreadsheet are the following:

$2 Win bet on top pick
$1 Exacta Key Box

Top Pick WITH others

$0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel

Top Pick WITH others WITH others
others WITH Top Pick WITH others
others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Tips for March 28, 2019

2019-03-27T20:00:00.000-05:00

Here is the Thursday, March 26, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the my PyPick software. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

Race 1: 9-5-2-1
Race 2: 5-4-8-1
Race 3: 8-2-3-1
Race 4: 3-9-1-10
Race 5: 2-3-5-9
Race 6: 12-5-4-6
Race 7: 6-8-4-1
Race 8: 6-1-2-8
Race 9: 11-5-3-4

The wagers that I am tracking using this spreadsheet are the following:

$2 Win bet on top pick
$1 Exacta Key Box

Top Pick WITH others

$0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel

Top Pick WITH others WITH others
others WITH Top Pick WITH others
others WITH others WITH Top Pick

Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Sunday, March 29, 2019 at Oaklawn Park

2019-03-24T06:00:00.000-05:00

We are set to close another surprising week of racing as the Louisiana Derby provided another shocker on the Triple Crown road. March Madness continues, and here is the Sunday March 24, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by my PyPick software.

Race 1: 6-7-9-1
Race 2: 10-4-3-1
Race 3: 6-1-4-3
Race 4: 9-7-3-2
Race 5: 3-6-2-7
Race 6: 10-11-12-7
Race 7: 5-8-1-7
Race 8: 8-4-1-3
Race 9: 4-1-7-6

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

$2 Win bet on top pick
$1 Exacta Key Box

Top Pick WITH others

$0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel

Top Pick WITH others WITH others
others WITH Top Pick WITH others
others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Selections for March 23, 2019

2019-03-23T08:00:00.000-05:00

There are two sprint Stakes on tap in Hot Springs today: the Nodouble Breeders' and the Gazebo. Even with the focus of the Triple Crown preparation elsewhere and March Madness in full effect, there is an outstanding day of racing planned. Here is the Saturday, March 23, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by my Python -based PyPick software. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

Race 1: 5-4-3-1
Race 2: 3-5-2-10
Race 3: 4-1-6-2
Race 4: 7-5-6-9
Race 5: 7-2-5-3
Race 6: 12-7-6-5
Race 7: 9-5-3-6
Race 8: 5-9-8-11
Race 9: 2-3-5-6
Race 10: 5-4-1-7

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

$2 Win bet on top pick
$1 Exacta Key Box

Top Pick WITH others

$0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel

Top Pick WITH others WITH others
others WITH Top Pick WITH others
others WITH others WITH Top Pick

Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Selections for March 22, 2019

2019-03-21T22:00:00.000-05:00

We are looking forward to a great weekend of racing as March Madness plays out inside our television sets. Here is the Friday, March 22, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the Python PyPick simulation software.

Race 1: 3-5-2-6
Race 2: 10-5-9-2
Race 3: 8-2-7-3
Race 4: 8-9-11-13
Race 5: 5-6-10-4
Race 6: 4-2-6-8
Race 7: 1-6-2-5
Race 8: 3-7-6-5
Race 9: 10-3-7-8

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

$2 Win bet on top pick
$1 Exacta Key Box

Top Pick WITH others

$0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel

Top Pick WITH others WITH others
others WITH Top Pick WITH others
others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

March 21, 2019 Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet

2019-03-20T20:00:00.000-05:00

Here is the Thursday, March 21, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the Python PyPick software (a Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

Race 1: 1-5-2-8
Race 2: 8-2-6-7
Race 3: 5-3-2-6
Race 4: 5-1-3-6
Race 5: 3-8-10-12
Race 6: 6-7-11-1
Race 7: 3-4-8-5
Race 8: 8-2-7-5
Race 9: 10-3-1-12

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

$2 Win bet on top pick
$1 Exacta Key Box

Top Pick WITH others

$0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel

Top Pick WITH others WITH others
others WITH Top Pick WITH others
others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

March 15, 2019 Oaklawn Park Selections

2019-03-15T08:00:00.000-05:00

Here is the Friday, March 15, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the Python PyPick software (a Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

Race 1: 2-5-7-1
Race 2: 12-6-5-7
Race 3: 7-2-4-5
Race 4: 6-2-4-7
Race 5: 2-8-4-7
Race 6: 3-7-2-10
Race 7: 1-6-4-2
Race 8: 10-6-8-3
Race 9: 1-11-9-5

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

$2 Win bet on top pick
$1 Exacta Key Box

Top Pick WITH others

$0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel

Top Pick WITH others WITH others
others WITH Top Pick WITH others
others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races, good luck, and beware the Ides of March.

Oaklawn Park Selections for March 14, 2019

2019-03-14T08:00:00.000-05:00

There is a giant weekend of racing on tap in Hot Springs, Arkansas as the Rebel Stakes will be run in two divisions with Game Winner and Improbable as the headliners. The Saturday card will have over $2.5 million in purse money to distribute to the horsemen who have brought their competitors to the race track. However, before the big event, we have a couple days of racing to wet the appetite.

Here is the Thursday, March 14, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park generated by the Python PyPick software (a Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

Race 1: 6-7-5-4
Race 2: 3-1-9-2
Race 3: 1-2-5-9
Race 4: 7-9-5-8
Race 5: 7-13-2-4
Race 6: 8-1-5-6
Race 7: 5-7-8-3
Race 8: 6-2-8-4
Race 9: 10-6-5-4

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

$2 Win bet on top pick
$1 Exacta Key Box

Top Pick WITH others

$0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel

Top Pick WITH others WITH others
others WITH Top Pick WITH others
others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

First Weekend Results for PyPick at Oaklawn Park

2019-03-13T21:30:00.000-05:00

In previous Oaklawn Park racing seasons, I went through the picks of the OakPick Monte Carlo program race by race. That process was time consuming and frustrating. First, I had to compile the results in a spreadsheet. The next step was composing a blog post with horse names, winning prices, etc. Finally, the statistics were discussed and theories expounded upon.

With a new program (PyPick), I have decided to "open source" my spreadsheet. This means I simply link to the file and everyone can see for themselves how the program is doing. Without further ado, here is the link to the PyPick Cumulative Statistics Spreadsheet.

As you can see for yourself, the $2 Win bet strategy on the top pick was a profitable one for the first weekend. The other two strategies (Exacta Key Box and Trifecta Key Box) were not. I will continue to those for a little while longer. To be honest, I was kind of hoping for abject failure - so I wouldn't feel the need to do the picks. That point may come later in the season, but the first weekend demonstrates that I need further testing.

---
Speaking of open source software, a piece of code that I wrote with my first student intern at Sandia National Laboratories was recently released under a BSD 3-Clause open source license. Here is the link to MatMCNP for those that have the need or want for isotopic descriptions of materials.

Oaklawn Park Selection for March 10, 2019

2019-03-10T08:00:00.000-05:00

Here is the March 10, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the Python PyPick software (a Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

Race 1: 1-7-3-5
Race 2: 5-6-4-8
Race 3: 4-9-1-3
Race 4: 2-10-8-1
Race 5: 5-4-7-8
Race 6: 1-3-6-5
Race 7: 6-7-11-3
Race 8: 6-1-7-5
Race 9: 9-6-1-5

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

$2 Win bet on top pick
$1 Exacta Key Box

Top Pick WITH others

$0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel

Top Pick WITH others WITH others
others WITH Top Pick WITH others
others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Selection for March 9, 2019

2019-03-09T08:00:00.000-06:00

As I mentioned yesterday, the process of producing picks using the new Monte Carlo program is more time intensive. I don't know if I will produce picks every day for the rest of the year. However, I do have a free Oaklawn Park tip sheet for Saturday, March 9, 2019. Here are the picks and the wagers that I am tracking:

Race 1: 8-2-1-7
Race 2: 7-6-2-3
Race 3: 4-6-10-2
Race 4: 6-12-7-9
Race 5: 2-1-5-8
Race 6: 5-11-6-3
Race 7: 3-4-5-1
Race 8: 10-3-8-1
Race 9: 1-3-9-2
Race 10: 7-10-12-6

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

$2 Win bet on top pick
$1 Exacta Key Box

Top Pick WITH others

$0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel

Top Pick WITH others WITH others
others WITH Top Pick WITH others
others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Selection for March 8, 2019

2019-03-08T09:30:00.000-06:00

It's been a while since my last post (1 week shy of 1 year), so obviously, there has been a lot going on. Rather than go into the chaos that is my life, I decided to start making Oaklawn Park selections again using a revamped version of my Monte Carlo for horse races. The new code is written in Python (I learned a new language since my last post) and has the ability to adjust the emphasis given to various factors. The current version allows for variation based on post position, jockey, and trainer. It is easily extensible (because, you know, Python), so if you have suggestion for additional factors to include, please let me know.

One of the drawbacks is that it does take significantly more time to setup and produce the output. I may have to write a web scraper and parser to automate some that in the future. I want to take a look at the results with the more labor intensive process before jumping that deep into the Python for that. The updated program samples the underlying total probability distribution 100 times to provide a top 4 based on the factors it considers. Without further ado, here is the tip sheet for March 8, 2018 at Oaklawn Park:

Race 1: 11-1-4-3
Race 2: 5-1-10-2
Race 3: 8-6-3-4
Race 4: 5-3-10-1
Race 5: 7-6-3-1
Race 6: 4-6-2-1
Race 7: 7-11-4-6
Race 8: 2-7-4-5
Race 9: 3-8-2-7

I will again track the $2 Win bet on the top pick (accounting for scratches). I will also look at Exacta Key Boxes and Trifecta Key Boxes with the top pick over the rest of the picks. Using Race 1 above as an example, here is what I will be tracking:

$2 Win on 11
$1 Exacta ($6 Total) - The combinations below are the following:
Exacta Box 11 with 1
Exacta Box 11 with 4
Exacta Box 11 with 3
OR Exacta Key Box 11 with 1, 3, 4

11 / 1
11 / 4
11 / 3
1 / 11
4 / 11
3 / 11

$0.50 Trifecta ($9 Total) - The combinations below are the following:
Trifecta part wheel 11 with 1, 3, 4 with 1, 3, 4
Trifecta part wheel 1, 3, 4 with 11 with 1, 3, 4
Trifecta part wheel 1, 3, 4 with 1, 3, 4 with 11

11 / 1 / 4
11 / 1 / 3
11 / 3 / 1
11 / 4 / 1
11 / 3 / 4
11 / 4 / 3
1 / 11 / 3
1 / 11 / 4
3 / 11 / 1
3 / 11 / 4
4 / 11 / 1
4 / 11 / 3
1 / 3 / 11
1 / 4 / 11
3 / 1 / 11
3 / 4 / 11
4 / 1 / 11
4 / 3 / 11

I will not go through the different combination each time, but I thought it would be helpful to understand what the various wagers look like. As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you.

Temporary Oaklawn Park Selections Pause

2018-03-15T07:00:00.000-05:00

So, I have been making selections for the races at Oaklawn Park for the past 2.5 months using software that I wrote. However, the amount of manual interaction with the program results to get it on to the blogger platform has become too much. I still owe a results post from last weekend and I hope to get that up soon.

Anyway, until life slows down a whole lot or I get a chance to automate my posting ability in some way, I am going to pause in posting selections every day. I plan on posting a season summary and selection for Arkansas Derby. I hope the pause will give me time to think about how to improve the algorithm to get better results than I have seen this year. Have a good weekend!

Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet for March 10, 2018

2018-03-09T21:00:00.000-06:00

We have another big stakes day on the card at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas on Saturday, March 10. The highlight of the day will be the Honeybee Stakes (G3) for 3 year-old fillies going a mile and 1/16. Here are the selections generated by my OakPick software for March 10, 2018. The selections here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

1st Race

8 - What'sontheagenda
5 - Doc Kane
4 - Divine Interventio

2nd Race

6 - Jean's Beauty
10 - Pocketfullofgreen
8 - Whataclassylady

3rd Race

2 - St. Joe Bay
3 - Rivers Run Deep
4 - Imma Bling

4th Race

6 - Flat Out Fast
7 - Grandpa's Dream
9 - Heavy Roller

5th Race

8 - The Rouge Diesel
7 - Get That Box
9 - Star Dog

6th Race

4 - Wynn Time
3 - Whitmore
2 - Warrior's Club

7th Race

11 - Minecraft Maniac
12 - Pop Culture
13 - Gettin Even

8th Race

5 - Red Ruby
6 - Amy's Challenge
2 - Stronger Than Ever

9th Race

3 - Nile Show
2 - Jim's Angel
10 - Dance Like Katie

Good luck! Have a great day at the racetrack.

Oaklawn Park Selections for March 9, 2018

2018-03-08T21:00:00.000-06:00

Here are the March 9, 2018 selections for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by my OakPick Monte Carlo software. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

1st Race

6 - Internet Success
2 - Young Corbett
4 - Pray Hard

2nd Race

1 - Oh Newman
5 - Future Express
7 - Match Up

3rd Race

4 - Zombie
3 - You're Killin Me
1 - Bye Crazy Eyes

4th Race

4 - Royal Edition
3 - Remembering Rita
5 - Switheral

5th Race

11 - Lord Turnem
10 - Bluebird Ridge
2 - Tiz too Much

6th Race

3 - Sonny Smack
6 - Lighthawk
2 - Grade

7th Race

7 - Oro Bird
1 - Stina
4 - C J's Flair

8th Race

4 - What a Star
1 - Treble
5 - Honor Way

9th Race

2 - Magic Eraser
7 - Ray's Big Boy
8 - Me N Logan Ray

Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet for March 8, 2018

2018-03-07T21:00:00.000-06:00

After a very positive week from the OakPick software, here is the March 8, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park. I am looking for a continue upswing in the returns for the program. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

1st Race

1/1A - Archusexy / City Seduction
4 - Chilean Queen
3 - Get Paid

2nd Race

2/2B - Quietly Cuba / Oh So Tall
4 - P C Suspect
7 - Ain'tseentheball

3rd Race

6 - Seeking Bull
4 - Castiel's Angel
8 - Papercoversrock

4th Race

2 - John Allen
5 - Coconut Ice
6 - Arch You Ready

5th Race

7 - Neck 'n Neck
4 - Cowboy Rhythm
3 - Eton Ridge

6th Race

1 - Song of Mine
5 - Plenty Quick
9 - Actress On Board

7th Race

1 - Bird Orr Brady
9 - Major Munnings
3 - Decorated Soldier

8th Race

6 - Malibu Max
4 - United Stand
1 - Money Talker

9th Race

1 - Pete's Play Call
2 - Cara Blythe
3 - Spring d'Oro

Have a great day at the races and good luck.

Monte Carlo Results from Oaklawn Park for March 1-4, 2018

2018-03-05T21:00:00.000-06:00

Without changing the algorithm as I have been contemplating, the OakPick Monte Carlo software correctly chose 7 winners out of 31 races for a tidy profit of $28.60 (on a $2 win bet). In addition, a $1 exacta box play on the three contenders chosen by the program for the 36 races at Oaklawn Park this weekend would have resulted in a $70.00 profit. The full results of the OakPick predictions for the weekend of March 1-4, 2018 are shown below.

While the exacta box strategy is positive for the year, I still have very little confidence in it based on last season's results. For the same reason, I feel confident that the results on the $2 win bet strategy are likely to improve as the season finishes over the next 7 weeks.

************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************

Results for March 1, 2018:

1st Race

8 - Superstyle (Also Ran)
7 - Brockton George (Win)
4 - Ninth Hour (Also Ran)

2nd Race

7 - Senor Grits (Also Ran)
6 - Como Se Llama (Place)
5 - Midnight Shine (Also Ran)

3rd Race

1 - Mary Lou (Also Ran)
6 - Dixie Flyer (Also Ran)
7 - Elevenpoint River (Also Ran)

4th Race

5 - Plum Gorgeous (Also Ran)
6 - Enchanting Embrace (Also Ran)
1 - Big Red Seven (Place)

5th Race

3 - Tiz Funny (Win)
9 - Snoose Sasa (Also Ran)
11 - Tarpys Zip (SCRATCH)

6th Race

3 - Gettin Even (Also Ran)
7 - Stormy Forecast (Also Ran)
1 - One River Place (Show)

7th Race

12 - Mesa Skyline (Also Ran)
1 - My Golden Tale (Also Ran)
9 - Distorted Ransom (Also Ran)

8th Race

4 - Grade One (Place)
5 - Nuclear Option (Also Ran)
1 - Pure Shot (Show)

9th Race

1 - B Dubya (Also Ran)
5 - Jacob Rocks (Win)
10 - Black Bomber (Also Ran)

Summary for Thursday, March 1 at Oaklawn: 1 Winner on Top Pick, 0 Exacta, 8 out of 26 OTB (1 scratch, 3 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

$2 Win Ticket Cost Through 28 Days

$472 (236 Races, 18 Scratches on Top Pick)

Number of Winners Hit

19 (8.1%)

Total Return on Winners

$267.40

Running Profit/Loss

-$204.60

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

$1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 28 Days

$1,312 (254 Races, $1,524 - $212 on adjustments for scratches)

Number of Exactas Hit

20 (7.9%)

Total Return on Winners

$1,332.30

Running Profit/Loss

$20.30

************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************

Results from March 2, 2018:

1st Race

11 - Whatabout Lil Man (Also Ran)
4 - Zapper Dan (Also Ran)
5 - Cornstalker (Also Ran)

2nd Race

5 - Bee Boppin Baby (Also Ran)
2 - Blueberry Shine (Place)
1 - Cinema Doll (Also Ran)

3rd Race

4 - Bay's Commander (Place)
12 - Divine Counsil (Also Ran)
8 - Rick's Stryker (Also Ran)

4th Race

1 - Wildcat Shoals (Also Ran)
3 - Spur (Place)
6 - Stay Home (Also Ran)

5th Race

7 - Carouse (Also Ran)
11 - More On Tap (Also Ran)
10 - Far Out Kailee (Also Ran)

6th Race

12 - Dontsaymyname (SCRATCH)
8 - Ms. D's Last Storm (Also Ran)
5 - Transformative (Place)

7th Race

3 - Black Bear (Also Ran)
6 - Knights Key (Place)
8 - Richie the Bull (Win)
8/6 Exacta: $96.40

8th Race

5 - Moolamiss (Place)
3 - Awesome Day (Show)
1 - Baby Spencer (Also Ran)

9th Race

6 - Ravens Reflection (Also Ran)
9 - Bravo Dixie (Also Ran)
1 - Calusa County (Also Ran)

Summary for Friday, March 2 at Oaklawn: 0 Winner on Top Pick, 1 Exacta, 8 out of 26 OTB (1 scratch, 1 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

$2 Win Ticket Cost Through 29 Days

$472 (244 Races, 19 Scratches on Top Pick)

Number of Winners Hit

19 (7.8%)

Total Return on Winners

$267.40

Running Profit/Loss

-$220.60

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

$1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 29 Days

$1,362 (263 Races, $1,578 - $216 on adjustments for scratches)

Number of Exactas Hit

21 (8.0%)

Total Return on Winners

$1,428.70

Running Profit/Loss

$66.70

************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************

Results for March 3, 2018:

1st Race

5 - Best Shoes (Also Ran)
4 - Princessof the Nyl (Place)
6 - Way too Smarte (Also Ran)

2nd Race

4 - Gallopingguinness (SCRATCH)
6 - Zack Ridge Road (Place)
11 - Early Shipman (Also Ran)

3rd Race

2 - Mr Darcy (Show)
4 - Zaevion (Also Ran)
5 - Notation (Also Ran)

4th Race

4 - Dreamcall (Win)
8 - Ruby Sioux (Also Ran)
1 - It's the Truth (Also Ran)

5th Race

3 - Exclamation Point (Win)
4 - Articulator (Also Ran)
7 - Pickford (Also Ran)

6th Race

4 - Bolitar (Also Ran)
8 - Toasting Master (Place)
9 - Matrooh (Win)
9/8 Exacta: $9.00

7th Race

1 - I Am (SCRATCH)
7 - Five O One (Show)
2 - J. E.'s Handmedown (Win)

8th Race

3 - Golden Mischief (Also Ran)
2 - Okie Diva (Also Ran)
4 - Defy (Also Ran)

9th Race

8 - Tapsolute (Win)
1 - Gray Sky (Also Ran)
5 - Susan's Reward (Also Ran)

Summary for Saturday, March 3 at Oaklawn: 3 Winner on Top Pick, 1 Exacta, 10 out of 25 OTB (2 scratch, 5 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

$2 Win Ticket Cost Through 30 Days

$502 (251 Races, 21 Scratches on Top Pick)

Number of Winners Hit

22 (8.8%)

Total Return on Winners

$287.80

Running Profit/Loss

-$214.20

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

$1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 30 Days

$1,408 (272 Races, $1,632 - $224 on adjustments for scratches)

Number of Exactas Hit

22 (8.1%)

Total Return on Winners

$1,437.70

Running Profit/Loss

$29.70

************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************

Results for March 4, 2018:

1st Race

1 - Hung Over On Gin (Also Ran) / 1A - Tre Lee Divine (Win)
4 - Uncle Pappy (Also Ran)
6 - Tarpys Zip (Place)
1/6 Exacta: $116.50

2nd Race

4 - Ella B Aly (Win)
1 - Endless Bloom (Place)
11 - Suspicious Lady (Also Ran)
4/1 Exacta: $38.10

3rd Race

5 - Irish You Well (SCRATCH)
6 - Moon Over Cuzco (Also Ran)
7 - Malibu Tide (Also Ran)

4th Race

7 - Coco Honey (Also Ran)
8 - Dark Bloom (Also Ran)
11 - Tickled by Elmo (Also Ran)

5th Race

12 - Rippin Ranger (SCRATCH)
3 - Mud Light (Also Ran)
6 - Loyalist (SCRATCH)

6th Race

9 - Strike Rate (Also Ran)
2 - Yellow Wolf (Place)
3 - Hidden Bamboo (Also Ran)

7th Race

9 - Only Liquor (Also Ran)
1 - Twirling Cinnamon (Show)
6 - Fleet Gold Digger (Also Ran)

8th Race

2 - Smart Spree (Win)
6 - El Charro (Show)
5 - Purely Given (Also Ran)

9th Race

3 - Sturn Donna (Also Ran)
6 - Good Wishes (Also Ran)
5 - Mystical Temple (Also Ran)

Summary for Sunday, March 4 at Oaklawn: 3 Winner on Top Pick, 2 Exacta, 8 out of 24 OTB (3 scratch, 3 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

$2 Win Ticket Cost Through 31 Days

$516 (258 Races, 23 Scratches on Top Pick)

Number of Winners Hit

25 (9.7%)

Total Return on Winners

$343.40

Running Profit/Loss

-$172.60

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

$1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 31 Days

$1,452 (272 Races, $1,686 - $234 on adjustments for scratches)

Number of Exactas Hit

24 (8.5%)

Total Return on Winners

$1,592.30

Running Profit/Loss

$140.30

************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************

The OakPick software was really on the nose with Win Bets on the top pick. The win rate was 22.6%. This weekend raised the overall season prediction rate from 7.9% to 9.7%. As I mentioned last week during the summary, the expectation is that the program should pick between 12 - 15% through the entire season. Thanks for following along. The first picks of the new week of racing will come out on Wednesday night.

Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet for March 4, 2018

2018-03-03T21:00:00.000-06:00

Here is the Sunday, March 4, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the OakPick software. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

1st Race

1 - Hung Over On Gin / 1A - Tre Lee Divine
4 - Uncle Pappy
6 - Tarpys Zip

2nd Race

4 - Ella B Aly
1 - Endless Bloom
11 - Suspicious Lady

3rd Race

5 - Irish You Well
6 - Moon Over Cuzco
7 - Malibu Tide

4th Race

7 - Coco Honey
8 - Dark Bloom
11 - Tickled by Elmo

5th Race

12 - Rippin Ranger
3 - Mud Light
6 - Loyalist

6th Race

9 - Strike Rate
2 - Yellow Wolf
3 - Hidden Bamboo

7th Race

9 - Only Liquor
1 - Twirling Cinnamon
6 - Fleet Gold Digger

8th Race

2 - Smart Spree
6 - El Charro
5 - Purely Given

9th Race

3 - Sturn Donna
6 - Good Wishes
5 - Mystical Temple

Good luck and enjoy your day at the track!

Oaklawn Park Selections for March 3, 2018

2018-03-02T21:00:00.000-06:00

Saturday, March 3 promises to be a great day of racing in Hot Springs at Oaklawn Park. There are 2 stakes races on the card (the 7th and 8th). Here are the selections for Oaklawn Park generated by my OakPick Monte Carlo software. I have not changed the algorithm since last year when I first wrote it, but I am currently toying with a few ideas that will likely increase the number of winners. As always, the predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

1st Race

5 - Best Shoes
4 - Princessof the Nyl
6 - Way too Smarte

2nd Race

4 - Gallopingguinness
6 - Zack Ridge Road
11 - Early Shipman

3rd Race

2 - Mr Darcy
4 - Zaevion
5 - Notation

4th Race

4 - Dreamcall
8 - Ruby Sioux
1 - It's the Truth

5th Race

3 - Exclamation Point
4 - Articulator
7 - Pickford

6th Race

4 - Bolitar
8 - Toasting Master
9 - Matrooh

7th Race

1 - I Am
7 - Five O One
2 - J. E.'s Handmedown

8th Race

3 - Golden Mischief
2 - Okie Diva
4 - Defy

9th Race

8 - Tapsolute
1 - Gray Sky
5 - Susan's Reward

Have a great day at the races and good luck!