MirrorNBF

Robotics Industry is far smaller than Global Outsourcing

2014-11-06T09:33:00.000-08:00

Information technology industry body Nasscom said the global business process management (BPM) spend will grow at six-seven per cent annually till 2020 resulting in significant opportunities for the sector. Global BPM spend, which stands at $130 billion across different sectors in 2013, are likely to grow to $233 billion by 2020, it said.

The global industrial robotics market was valued at USD 28.93 billion in 2013,growing at a CAGR of 6.2% from 2014 to 2020 and is estimated to reach USD 44.48 billion in 2020.

[Boston Consulting Group] Spending on robots worldwide is expected to more than quadruple from just over $15 billion four years ago to about $67 billion by 2025—a 10.4 percent.

There will be about 16 million new college educated people being added every year from now to 2030.About ten million per year will be added from China and India.

"Direct Writing" of diamond patterns from graphite a potential technological leap

2014-11-06T09:30:00.000-08:00

A new technique uses a pulsing laser to create synthetic nanodiamond films and patterns from graphite, with potential applications from biosensors to computer chips.

"The biggest advantage is that you can selectively deposit nanodiamond on rigid surfaces without the high temperatures and pressures normally needed to produce synthetic diamond," said Gary Cheng, an associate professor of industrial engineering at Purdue University. "We do this at room temperature and without a high temperature and pressure chamber, so this process could significantly lower the cost of making diamond. In addition, we realize a direct writing technique that could selectively write nanodiamond in designed patterns."

The ability to selectively "write" lines of diamond on surfaces could be practical for various potential applications including biosensors, quantum computing, fuel cells and next-generation computer chips.

The technique works by using a multilayered film that includes a layer of graphite topped with a glass cover sheet. Exposing this layered structure to an ultrafast-pulsing laser instantly converts the graphite to an ionized plasma and creates a downward pressure. Then the graphite plasma quickly solidifies into diamond. The glass sheet confines the plasma to keep it from escaping, allowing it to form a nanodiamond coating.

"These are super-small diamonds and the coating is super-strong, so it could be used for high-temperature sensors," Cheng said.

This illustration depicts a new technique that uses a pulsing laser to create synthetic nanodiamond films and patterns from graphite, with potential applications from biosensors to computer chips. (Purdue University image/Gary Cheng

Nature Scientific Reports - Direct Laser Writing of Nanodiamond Films from Graphite under Ambient Conditions

The researchers made the discovery while studying how to strengthen metals using a thin layer of graphite and a nanosecond-pulsing laser. A doctoral student noticed that the laser was either causing the graphite to disappear or turn semi-transparent.

"The black coating of graphite was gone, but where did it go?" Cheng said.

Subsequent research proved the graphite had turned into diamond. The Purdue researchers have named the process confined pulse laser deposition (CPLD).

The research team confirmed that the structures are diamond using a variety of techniques including transmission electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction and the measurement of electrical resistance.

Abstract

Synthesis of diamond, a multi-functional material, has been a challenge due to very high activation energy for transforming graphite to diamond, and therefore, has been hindering it from being potentially exploited for novel applications. In this study, we explore a new approach, namely confined pulse laser deposition (CPLD), in which nanosecond laser ablation of graphite within a confinement layer simultaneously activates plasma and effectively confine it to create a favorable condition for nanodiamond formation from graphite. It is noteworthy that due to the local high dense confined plasma created by transparent confinement layer, nanodiamond has been formed at laser intensity as low as 3.7 GW per square centimeter, which corresponds to pressure of 4.4 GPa, much lower than the pressure needed to transform graphite to diamond traditionally. By manipulating the laser conditions, semi-transparent carbon films with good conductivity (several kΩ per Sq) were also obtained by this method. This technique provides a new channel, from confined plasma to solid, to deposit materials that normally need high temperature and high pressure. This technique has several important advantages to allow scalable processing, such as high speed, direct writing without catalyst, selective and flexible processing, low cost without expensive pico/femtosecond laser systems, high temperature/vacuum chambers.

Hello Next Big Future!

2014-11-04T12:49:00.002-08:00

Dear loyal NBFers,

Recently, Brian mentioned in a post that he'd like to give Next Big Future a redesign and that part of the redesign would include updating the commenting system. At SolidOpinion we're well aware of how important commenting is to Next Big Future. In fact, commenting may be the most important part of NBF. NBF and the NBF commenting community were part of the inspiration behind the creation of SolidOpinion, so you can imagine how excited we are to work with the NBF community.
We'd like to take an opportunity to introduce ourselves through this post and encourage dialogue as we work to bring you the best possible platform for the site's redesign in the coming week. We've been paying close attention to the discussion around the switch and realize a lot of users have misgivings about switching from Disqus. The concerns that have been voiced thus far have been valid and thoughtful. So, we'd like to take an opportunity to respond to some of the questions users have had about us and talk a bit about how we plan to benefit the NBF community.

Top 10 Community Concerns:

1. Will we lose our old Disqus profiles and comments? (Honk, GoatGuy, Others)

A) No, NBF users will retain all historical comments and users will have their existing screen names. Note: At the moment it will be necessary to sign in to SolidOpinion and create a profile in order to comment on the mirror site. Users who choose to do so will have their Disqus comments imported into this profile once the final integration takes place on the main site. Users who do not wish to make a profile will have their screen names and comments automatically carried over as well.

2. Will we have the ability to quickly edit our comments? Why the redacted should it cost points? (Anthropic, GoatGuy, Others)

A) Comment editing is available, quick, and does not cost points. (Note: we are limiting the impact of the point system)

3. Gamification does not suit the NBF community. Lots of fluff, it's unnecessary. (Uzza, Others)

A) We have a lot of features and are implementing only those features which will enhance the NBF community. No fluff, we promise.

4. Is it all about ignoring other commenters? Customizing what they see? This is balkanization like cable news. (Publiseur, Others)

A) The platform is set up so that the highest rated comments and the highest ranking commenters will rise to the top and guide the discussion. SolidOpinion is not a "pick and choose" commenting platform that allows individuals to sort what they see; rather it's a community based pulpit that gives additional exposure to those comments and commenters ranked highest in the community. We have the option for single users to ignore individual commenters but that function will not be present in the NBF integration.

5. Are you trying to turn us (the commenters) into a revenue stream? (Honk)

A) Though we are compatible with micro-transactions, that kind of environment does not suit the NBF community. Don’t worry Honk, we’re not going to start digging in your pockets. Instead, we're providing a better revenue generation avenue than Disqus does through targeted ads at the bottom of the page.

6. Monetized micro-transactions look like a scam. (Honk)

A) Micro-transactions are available, however, they will not be an apparent aspect in the SolidOpinion integration of NBF. No NBF user will EVER be required to make a micro-transaction. We want to employ tools that enhance the community, not detract from it.

7. Acclimate us. Take us on a journey. Don't push us off a cliff. (IKNOW)

A) We will provide open a/b testing through this mirror site to introduce NBF users to SolidOpinion. This will be a great way for us to internalize your feedback and provide fixes, as well as provide a place for NBF users to experience the comment system before a full integration. We (SolidOpinion) are also here to answer any and all questions or comments, directly.

8. I like the ability to push high-ranking comments to the top. (Anthropic)

A) So do we. The SolidOpinion system on NBF will be set up to display the highest ranking comments and comments from the highest-ranking users at the top. Users have the ability to grow their rank by earning points through positive participation, thus getting their own comments featured more frequently as an incentive.

9. I like having moderation in place. (Anthropic)

A) We have a multi tiered moderation approach meaning blacklists for certain vitriolic or offensive words, human moderators, and community moderation ability.

10. No emojis – for the love of God. (Paul451)

A) Emojis are an optional function and – like all the SolidOpinion functions – can be enabled/disabled by Brian. We will be launching without Emojis.

SolidOpinion benefits we'd like to highlight:

Your input so far has been invaluable and we hope to hear more. In the meantime we'd like to take a moment to highlight a few of the ways our platform will help enhance the NBF community.

Reputation building and incentives through the point system.

Users gain points in SolidOpinion when they participate. Those points decide a user's rank and higher ranking users (like GoatGuy) are given increased ability and moderation capability.
Comments from higher ranking users will be featured more prominently, helping provide direction to the community discourse. Think of it like giving GoatGuy a microphone.
Lesser-ranked commenters have be able to earn increased status and ability by gaining points. This incentivizes positive participation which is good for the community, reduces moderation costs, and rewards NBF’s most influential members for their contributions.

Increased moderation functionality.

This cuts costs and keeps the NBF community a safe, accessible place. Better moderation encourages new users to join the conversation and reinforces the contributions of existing members.

Functionality that suits the NBF community.

We have a lot of functionality. Some functionality works for certain sites and some functions don’t. What we will provide that isn’t currently available on Disqus – yet very applicable to NBF – are things like video and picture embedding in-line and the ability to annotate another user's comment. This provides a cleaner conversation space for those who would like to post videos and pictures while not linking out to another site. This is good for Brian’s traffic and good for the community’s expressive ability.
If there is functionality you don’t like – tell us. If there is functionality you’d like to see – tell us. Unlike Disqus we don’t force a “one size fits all” solution on a community. We’re here to provide tools that help the discussion.

Community building support from SolidOpinion.

We are the best at what we do – build communities. We use researched-backed methods to help encourage growth based on each individual community’s needs. This is good for Brian, good for NBF users, and good for future NBFers as well.

Thanks for taking the time to read a little about SolidOpinion. We'd like to invite you to continue to visit the MirrorNBF site and comment, as we'll be posting the same content from the main site on this mirror. Please lend us your thoughts, recommendations, and questions about the platform in the comment section of any article and we'll get back to you as soon as possible. Or, reach out by emailing our community developer, Clint at ca@solidopinion.com. We look forward to the dialogue as we work to bring you the best possible comment system in the coming weeks.

Sincerely,

The SolidOpinion Team

Buying about $8 trillion of foreign assets and companies will prevent Chinese Yuan from strengthening 5 to 1 until about 2045

2014-11-04T08:55:00.000-08:00

According to the most recently published data, in 2011 total deposits held in these institutions by corporations, individuals and other entities amounted to 80.9 trillion yuan ($13.3 trillion)—70% more than China's GDP. (In the U.S. in 2014, M2—consisting of total demand deposits, savings deposits and small time deposits—was 35% less than U.S. GDP).

If and when full yuan convertibility occurs, a significant share of these yuan balances (perhaps 10% or more) will diversify into other foreign assets, especially dollar assets. Buying up foreign assets on a major scale means flooding the market with yuan, putting downward pressure on its value. And as long as China maintains an annual current account surplus—currently about $190 billion—some of it will further boost demand for foreign assets, thereby further weakening the yuan's exchange rate.

These three factors mean that the yuan's value is likely to stabilize toward the lower end of the 16 cents to 20 cents range. That said, so long as China's unusually high savings rate persists—about 40% of GDP compared with less than 10% in the U.S.—so too will large surpluses recur in its current account.

Charles Wolf of Rand Predictions Summarized

HSBC expects yuan to be a top three currency for trade settlement in 2015 and fully convertible by 2018

* Wolf expects China will buy $2 trillion initially in foreign assets (companies, properties etc...) around 2018 with full convertibility

* China will continue to have a surplus and will buy more assets $100-200 billion per year ($1-2 trillion per decade)

It will likely take about 30 years for China's savings rate to get to the 10% range

If Wolf is right then it will be about 2045 before China's yuan strengthens beyond 5 to 1 to the US dollar.

Global CO2 emissions will be over 40 billion tonnes in 2014 and are 58% higher than in 1990 which is the base year of the Kyoto Protocol

2014-09-23T09:04:00.000-07:00

Carbon dioxide emissions, the main contributor to global warming, are set to rise 2.5% in 2014 - reaching a record high of 40 billion tonnes.

Key facts and figures:

* CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuel are projected to rise by 2.5 per cent in 2014 - 65 per cent above 1990 levels, the reference year for the Kyoto Protocol - China, the USA, the EU and India are the largest emitters – together accounting for 58 per cent of emissions.

* China’s CO2 emissions grew by 4.2 per cent in 2013, the USA’s grew by 2.9 per cent, and India’s emissions grew by 5.1 per cent.

* The EU has decreased its emissions by 1.8 per cent, though it continues to export a third of its emissions to China and other producers through imported goods and services.

* China’s CO2 emissions per person overtook emissions in the EU for the first time in 2013. China’s emissions are now larger than the US and EU combined. 16 per cent of China’s emissions are for goods and services which are exported elsewhere.

*CO2 emissions are caused primarily by burning fossil fuels, as well as by cement production and deforestation. Deforestation accounts for 8 per cent of CO2 emissions.

* Historical and future CO2 emissions must remain below a total 3,200 billion tonnes to be in with a 66 per cent chance of keeping climate change below 2°C. But two thirds (2,000 billion tonnes) of this quota have already been used.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production increased by 2.3% in 2013, with a total of 9.9±0.5 GtC (billion tonnes of carbon) (36 GtCO2) emitted to the atmosphere, 61% above 1990 emissions (the Kyoto Protocol reference year). Emissions are projected to increase by a further 2.5% in 2014. In 2013, the ocean and land carbon sinks respectively removed 27% and 23% of total CO2 (fossil fuel and land use change), leaving 50% of emissions into the atmosphere. The ocean sink in 2013 was 2.9±0.5 GtC, slightly above the 2004-2013 average of 2.6±0.5, and the land sink was 2.5±0.9 GtC slightly below the 2004-2013 average of 2.9±0.8. Total cumulative emissions from 1870 to 2013 were 390±20 GtC from fossil fuels and cement, and 145± 50 from land use change. The total of 535±55GtC was partitioned among the atmosphere (225±5 GtC), ocean (150±20 GtC), and the land (155±60 GtC).

The growth of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2013 was 3.3%. The fossil fuel carbon intensity of the economy declined (improved) by -1.0%yr-1. The 2014 projection of 2.5% growth is based on the world GDP projection of 3.3% made by the International Monetary Fund and our estimate of improvements in the fossil intensity of the economy of -0.7%.

In 2013, global CO2 emissions were dominated by emissions from China (28%), the USA (14%), the EU (28 member states; 10%) and India (7%). Growth rates of these countries from 2012 to 2013 were 4.2% for China, 2.9% for the USA, −1.8% for the EU28, and 5.1% for India. The per-capita CO2 emissions in 2013 were 1.4 tonnes of carbon person-1yr-1 (5.1 tCO2) for the globe, 4.5 (16.4 tCO2) for the USA, 2.0 (7.2 tCO2) for China, 1.9 (6.8 tCO2) for the EU28, and 0.5 (1.9 tCO2) for India.

Of the total emissions from human activities during the period 2004-2013, about 44% accumulated in the atmosphere, 26% in the ocean and 30% on land. During this period, the size of the natural sinks has grown in response to the increasing emissions, although year-to-year variability of that growth is large.

The ocean sink is estimated by using observations for the period 1990-2000, and an ensemble of seven global ocean biogeochemistry models for the trend and variability. The models were normalized to the observed mean ocean sinks for the 1990s. Models were forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration. In addition, three observation-based estimates of the ocean sink were used to provide a qualitative assessment of confidence. In 2013 the ocean sink is estimated to have removed 29% of total (fossil fuel plus net land-use change) CO2 emissions.

The land sink is calculated as the residual of the sum of all sources minus the sum of the atmosphere and ocean sinks. An independent estimate of the consistency of the residual land sink is obtained by estimating the land sink from 10 dynamic global vegetation models. In 2013 the land sink is estimated to have removed 23% of total (fossil fuel plus net land use change) CO2 emissions.

China released its climate change goals for 2020

China has pledged to reduce its carbon emission intensity, namely emissions per unit of GDP, by 40 percent to 45 percent by 2020 from the 2005 level. It will also aim to bring the proportion of non-fossil fuels to about 15 percent of its total primary energy consumption. By the end of last year, China had reduced carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 28.56 percent from 2005, which was equivalent to saving the world 2.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions, Xie said.

NBF - China is targeting to reduce emissions per unit of GDP by 12-17%. If China increases GDP by 7% per year then GDP would increase by 50% from 2015 to 2020. Achieving 17% reduction would still mean 33% more emissions or about 4 billion tons of carbon or 14.7 billion tons of CO2. CO2 weighs 3.67 time more than carbon.

At the end of 2013, China's consumption ratio of non-fossil energy to primary energy stood at 9.8 percent. Forest growing stock had increased by 1.3 trillion cubic meters from 2005 to two trillion cubic meters, seven years ahead of schedule, according to the official.

In the first nine months of 2014, China's energy consumption per unit of GDP dropped by 4.2 percent year on year and carbon intensity was cut by about 5 percent, both representing the largest drops in years, he said.

Other targets include increasing forest coverage by 40 million hectares within the next five years.

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U.S., Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates hit ISIS in Syria

2014-09-23T09:02:00.001-07:00

The U.S. and five Arab countries launched airstrikes Monday night on Islamic State group targets in Syria, expanding a military campaign into a country whose three-year civil war has given the brutal militant group a safe haven.

Using a mix of manned aircraft — fighter jets and bombers — plus Tomahawk cruise missiles, the strikes were part of the expanded military campaign that President Barack Obama authorized nearly two weeks ago in order to disrupt and destroy the Islamic State militants, who have slaughtered thousands of people, beheaded Westerners — including two American journalists — and captured large swaths of Syria and northern and western Iraq.

U.S. officials said the airstrikes began around 8:30 p.m. EDT, and were conducted by the U.S., Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. The first wave of strikes finished about 90 minutes later, but the operation was expected to continue for several more hour

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Carnival of Nuclear Energy 227

2014-09-23T09:00:00.000-07:00

The Carnival of Nuclear Energy 227 is up at Hiroshima Syndrome

Forbes James Conca - First American Nuke Plant In 21st Century To Open Soon

Tennessee Valley Authority’s Watts Bar 2 Nuclear Generating Station is in the final phase of construction in preparation for its start-up next year. Watts Bar 2 will be the first nuclear power plant to come online in the U.S. in this century, the first of five commercial nuclear reactors under construction. It is expected to produce over 700 billion kWhs of extremely low-carbon electricity over its life, at an actual cost of only 6 ¢ per kWhr.

Nextbigfuture - Batteries play an important role in everyday life. Scientists and technology. companies constantly are seeking ways to improve battery life and efficiency. Now, for the first time using a water-based solution, researchers at the University of Missouri have created a long-lasting and more efficient nuclear battery that could be used for many applications such as a reliable energy source in complicated applications such as space flight and military applications.

The battery uses a radioactive isotope called strontium-90 that boosts electrochemcial energy in a water-based solution. A nanostructured titanium dioxide electrode (the common element found in sunscreens and UV blockers) with a platinum coating collects and effectively converts energy into electrons.

Nextbigfuture - Two UAE reactors should be operational by 2020 and Saudi Arabia could complete twelve nuclear reactors from 2022-2034

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Telomerase, even when present, can be turned off with a genetic switch which could be an anti aging breakthrough

2014-09-22T10:10:00.000-07:00

Scientists at the Salk Institute have discovered an on-and-off “switch” in cells that may hold the key to healthy aging. This switch points to a way to encourage healthy cells to keep dividing and generating, for example, new lung or liver tissue, even in old age.

In our bodies, newly divided cells constantly replenish lungs, skin, liver and other organs. However, most human cells cannot divide indefinitely–with each division, a cellular timekeeper at the ends of chromosomes shortens. When this timekeeper, called a telomere, becomes too short, cells can no longer divide, causing organs and tissues to degenerate, as often happens in old age. But there is a way around this countdown: some cells produce an enzyme called telomerase, which rebuilds telomeres and allows cells to divide indefinitely.

Scientists at the Salk Institute have discovered that telomerase, even when present, can be turned off.

Genes and Development Journal - Regulated assembly and disassembly of the yeast telomerase quaternary complex

“Previous studies had suggested that once assembled, telomerase is available whenever it is needed,” says senior author Vicki Lundblad, professor and holder of Salk’s Ralph S. and Becky O'Connor Chair. “We were surprised to discover instead that telomerase has what is in essence an ‘off’ switch, whereby it disassembles.”

Understanding how this “off” switch can be manipulated–thereby slowing down the telomere shortening process–could lead to treatments for diseases of aging (for example, regenerating vital organs later in life).

Lundblad and first author and graduate student Timothy Tucey conducted their studies in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, the same yeast used to make wine and bread. Previously, Lundblad’s group used this simple single-celled organism to reveal numerous insights about telomerase and lay the groundwork for guiding similar findings in human cells.

“We wanted to be able to study each component of the telomerase complex but that turned out to not be a simple task,” Tucey said. Tucey developed a strategy that allowed him to observe each component during cell growth and division at very high resolution, leading to an unanticipated set of discoveries into how–and when–this telomere-dedicated machine puts itself together.

Every time a cell divides, its entire genome must be duplicated. While this duplication is going on, Tucey discovered that telomerase sits poised as a “preassembly” complex, missing a critical molecular subunit. But when the genome has been fully duplicated, the missing subunit joins its companions to form a complete, fully active telomerase complex, at which point telomerase can replenish the ends of eroding chromosomes and ensure robust cell division.

Surprisingly, however, Tucey and Lundblad showed that immediately after the full telomerase complex has been assembled, it rapidly disassembles to form an inactive “disassembly” complex — essentially flipping the switch into the “off” position. They speculate that this disassembly pathway may provide a means of keeping telomerase at exceptionally low levels inside the cell. Although eroding telomeres in normal cells can contribute to the aging process, cancer cells, in contrast, rely on elevated telomerase levels to ensure unregulated cell growth. The “off” switch discovered by Tucey and Lundblad may help keep telomerase activity below this threshold.

Abstract - Regulated assembly and disassembly of the yeast telomerase quaternary complex

The enzyme telomerase, which elongates chromosome termini, is a critical factor in determining long-term cellular proliferation and tissue renewal. Hence, even small differences in telomerase levels can have substantial consequences for human health. In budding yeast, telomerase consists of the catalytic Est2 protein and two regulatory subunits (Est1 and Est3) in association with the TLC1 RNA, with each of the four subunits essential for in vivo telomerase function. We show here that a hierarchy of assembly and disassembly results in limiting amounts of the quaternary complex late in the cell cycle, following completion of DNA replication. The assembly pathway, which is driven by interaction of the Est3 telomerase subunit with a previously formed Est1–TLC1–Est2 preassembly complex, is highly regulated, involving Est3-binding sites on both Est2 and Est1 as well as an interface on Est3 itself that functions as a toggle switch. Telomerase subsequently disassembles by a mechanistically distinct pathway due to dissociation of the catalytic subunit from the complex in every cell cycle. The balance between the assembly and disassembly pathways, which dictate the levels of the active holoenzyme in the cell, reveals a novel mechanism by which telomerase (and hence telomere homeostasis) is regulated.

19 Pages of Supplemental Material

Sources: Salk Institute for Biological Studies, Genes and Development journal

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John Bongaarts at the Population Council thinks Climate Change has a good chance of limiting human Population but he is wrong

2014-09-19T13:40:00.000-07:00

According to the new analysis by researchers at the United Nations and several academic institutions, there is an 80 percent chance that the world’s population, now 7.2 billion, won’t stop at nine billion in 2050, but will instead be between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion by 2100. The researchers increased their estimates after noting persistent high birth rates and faster-than-expected progress in combatting HIV/AIDS in Africa. [Journal Science - World population stabilization unlikely this century]

Technology Review David Talbot says the prediction’s reliability is debatable, given that it does not take into account future hardships a large population would likely face. It doesn’t take into account the effects of climate change, food shortages, disease, or conflict. The study take into account that population growth could trigger deadly calamities like food shortages, war, and disease even without climate change, says John Bongaarts, vice president and distinguished scholar at the Population Council, a think tank and research organization based in New York City.

Wolfgang Lutz, director of the Vienna Institute of Demography, says, his newest analysis still suggests a less-dire outcome. “Our most likely scenario comes out somewhat lower than the current United Nations projections,” and suggests population will peak at 9.4 billion around 2070 and start a slow decline to nine billion by the end of the century.

So Lutz at the Vienna Demography Institute calls a human population rising to 12 billion in 2100 a dire outcome. It would be dire if wars, food shortages, disease and climate change do not limit population ? Or if Africa does not see vastly increased usage of birth control ?

Birth rates are suppressed during big wars but studies show that there is an increase in birth rates after the war and population levels recover.

Birth rates and populations also bounce back after famines.

Bongaarts seems to be hoping or expecting permanent wars and famines.

Africa has more wars and famines than other places in the world. This is one of the reasons that the birth rates stay high. People are worried that they will lose children. So they have 5-6 kids hoping that 2-3 will survive. When survival rates are good then birth rates are low. A lot of wars and famine and hardship means that people will have more kids and not less and population will be higher. There would have to be a complete global collapse for the population to drop and stay down. Bongaarts underestimates what people can do.

Large scale fish farming and ocean management (iron fertilization of the ocean to boost fish).
Bongaarts does not realize that all of the CO2 emissions and climate effects are side effects of our civilization. This is happening without that as a goal. Of course the technology exists and can be developed for changing the climate and the oceans to what we want. It is about getting the most economic and efficient solutions.

Ocean Acidification can be mitigated

Climate change can be mitigated.

Correcting soot pollution is 20 times cheaper than fixing the CO2

The World can support one hundred billion living at western levels and expected improvements in agriculture, energy and water can easily handle 15-20 billion by 2100.

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First Water-Based Nuclear Battery Can Be Used to Generate Electricity for decades with betavoltaics breakthrough

2014-09-19T13:36:00.001-07:00

From cell phones to cars and flashlights, batteries play an important role in everyday life. Scientists and technology. companies constantly are seeking ways to improve battery life and efficiency. Now, for the first time using a water-based solution, researchers at the University of Missouri have created a long-lasting and more efficient nuclear battery that could be used for many applications such as a reliable energy source in automobiles and also in complicated applications such as space flight.

The battery uses a radioactive isotope called strontium-90 that boosts electrochemcial energy in a water-based solution. A nanostructured titanium dioxide electrode (the common element found in sunscreens and UV blockers) with a platinum coating collects and effectively converts energy into electrons.

“Water acts as a buffer and surface plasmons created in the device turned out to be very useful in increasing its efficiency,” Kwon said. “The ionic solution is not easily frozen at very low temperatures and could work in a wide variety of applications including car batteries and, if packaged properly, perhaps spacecraft.”

The maximum energy conversion efficiency of the MU battery was approximately estimated to be 53.88%. This is an astonishing number for a first trial design. Strontium 90 has a half life of 28.79 years

H/T to New Energy and Fuel

Nature Scientific Reports - Plasmon-assisted radiolytic energy conversion in aqueous solutions

ABSTRACT

The field of conventional energy conversion using radioisotopes has almost exclusively focused on solid-state materials. Herein, we demonstrate that liquids can be an excellent media for effective energy conversion from radioisotopes. We also show that free radicals in liquid, which are continuously generated by beta radiation, can be utilized for electrical energy generation. Under beta radiation, surface plasmon obtained by the metallic nanoporous structures on TiO2 enhanced the radiolytic conversion via the efficient energy transfer between plasmons and free radicals. This work introduces a new route for the development of next-generation power sources.

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Optimizing performance and working around limitation of Dwave Quantum Annealing Computers

2014-09-19T13:31:00.000-07:00

Discrete optimization using quantum annealing on sparse Ising models

This paper discusses techniques for solving discrete optimization problems using quantum annealing. Practical issues likely to affect the computation include precision limitations, finite temperature, bounded energy range, sparse connectivity, and small numbers of qubits. To address these concerns they propose a way of finding energy representations with large classical gaps between ground and first excited states, efficient algorithms for mapping non-compatible Ising models into the hardware, and the use of decomposition methods for problems that are too large to fit in hardware. They validate the approach by describing experiments with D-Wave quantum hardware for low density parity check decoding with up to 1000 variables.

They have outlined a general approach for coping with intrinsic issues related to the practical use of quantum annealing. To address these issues we proposed methods for finding Ising problem representations that have a large classical gap between ground states and first excited states, practical methods for embedding Ising models that are not compatible with the hardware graph, and decomposition methods to solve problems that are larger than the hardware. As an application of our techniques, we described how we implemented LDPC decoding problems in D-Wave hardware. Our approach has enabled us to solve LDPC decoding problems of up to 1000 variables. The current hardware implementation of QA tested here is roughly as fast as an efficient implementation of simulated annealing, but these results offer the promise of hybrid quantum/classical algorithms that surpass purely classical solution as QA hardware matures.

As future work, they would like to improve upon the scalability of the current method for constructing penalty functions with large gaps. This would allow larger component subproblems and reduce the need for minor embedding between subproblems. Further, the methods they ave described here for finding penalty functions assume an assignment of decision variables to qubits. Different assignment choices lead to different results and different hardware performance. They do not currently have an effective method for this assignment.

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POSTED BY BRIAN WANG AT 9/19/2014

Acidification Mitigation Details and lower cost mitigation in the $1 to 4 per ton CO2 ranges

2014-09-19T12:26:00.000-07:00

Ocean Acidification: Cause, Impact and mitigation from IIT Kanpur

Limestone mitigation

Presentation by Rau describes the limestone mitigation method

Journal of Geophysical Research - Mitigating the atmospheric CO2 increase and ocean acidification by adding limestone powder to upwelling regions

The feasibility of enhancing the absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere by adding calcium carbonate (CaCO3) powder to the ocean and of partially reversing the acidification of the ocean and the decrease in calcite supersaturation resulting from the absorption of anthropogenic CO2 is investigated. CaCO3 could be added to the surface layer in regions where the depth of the boundary between supersaturated and unsaturated water is relatively shallow (250–500 m) and where the upwelling velocity is large (30–300 m a 1 ). The CaCO3 would dissolve within a few 100 m depth below the saturation horizon, and the dissolution products would enter the mixed layer within a few years to decades, facilitating further absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere. This absorption of CO2 would largely offset the increase in mixed layer pH and carbonate supersaturation resulting from the upwelling of dissolved limestone powder. However, if done on a large scale, the reduction in atmospheric CO2 due to absorption of CO2 by the ocean would reduce the amount of CO2 that needs to be absorbed by the mixed layer, thereby allowing a larger net increase in pH and in supersaturation in the regions receiving CaCO3. At the same time, the reduction in atmospheric pCO2 would cause outgassing of CO2 from ocean regions not subject to addition of CaCO3, thereby increasing the pH and supersaturation in these regions as well. Geographically optimal application of 4 billion t of CaCO3 a 1 (0.48 Gt C a 1 ) could induce absorption of atmospheric CO2 at a rate of 600 Mt CO2 a 1 after 50 years, 900 Mt CO2 a 1 after 100 years, and 1050 Mt CO2 a 1 after 200 years.

Opportunities for Low-Cost CO2 Mitigation in Electricity, Oil, and Cement Production by Rau

Several low-cost opportunities exist for scrubbing CO2 from waste gas streams, utilizing spontaneous chemical reactions in the presence of water and inexpensive or waste alkaline compounds. These reactions convert CO2 to bicarbonate or carbonate in dissolved or solid form, thus providing CO2 capture and low-risk CO2 storage underground, in the ocean, or in some cases on land. Useful by-products and co-benefits can also be generated by these processes. In certain settings this approach will be significantly less energy intensive, less costly, and less risky than "conventional" molecular CO2 capture and geologic storage.

It has been previously shown that industrial-scale accelerated weathering of limestone, AWL, can effectively convert a significant fraction of US CO2 emissions to long-term storage as bicarbonate in the ocean. Being analogous to the successful, wide-spread use of wet limestone to desulfurize flue gas, AWL reactors could be retrofitted to existing power plants at a cost possibly as low as $3-$4 per tonne CO2 mitigated. Such low costs would especially pertain to coastal power plants where an average of 30,000 tonnes of seawater per GWhe are already pumped through for cooling, and where the majority of coastline (at least in the US) is within 400 km of limestone sources.

Capture and Storage Using Water Co-Produced With Oil

On average 10 barrels of water are brought to the surface with each barrel of oil produced, and the majority of this water is simply pumped back into the reservoir. Our preliminary analysis suggests that most of this water is significantly undersaturated in CO2 relative to industrial waste gas streams that are typically 10% to 20% CO2. Furthermore, such waters can contain significant carbonate ion concentrations, meaning they have an enhanced capacity to react with excess CO2 to form dissolved bicarbonates.

While the US capacity of this CO2 mitigation approach is modest (perhaps 2 million tons/yr) and is best suited to treat CO2 waste streams in the immediate vicinity of the water production, the cost of such CO2 mitigation could be extremely low, perhaps less than $1/tonne CO2.

Co-benefits of CO2 addition to produced water would be the reduction (via lowered pH) of internal pipeline scale formation, a common and expensive problem in the industry. Also, CO2 addition could enhance the oil-water separation process, may reduce downstream microbial fouling, and might enhance oil recovery. Further work is needed to better evaluate the cost/benefit and potential market of this CO2 mitigation approach.

Cement Production can be altered to absorb CO2 instead of releasing CO2.

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Google U lab could partner with countries for new more efficient cities

2014-09-19T10:16:00.000-07:00

The Information reports in 2013, Google CEO Larry Page convened his direct reports, the company’s dozen or so senior vice presidents, for a project that would take up two days a week for a couple of months. About 100 other employees below the SVP rank also participated in the effort, dubbed Google 2.0.

Google 2.0 has goals in areas ranging from subscription businesses to location services to developing replacements for traditional passwords.

It also setup a second research lab Google Y. Google Y is looking at more efficient airports and cities.

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POSTED BY BRIAN WANG AT 9/19/2014

No Independence for Scotland

2014-09-19T10:13:00.001-07:00

BBC News has called the Scotland independence vote for the NO. The vote was 55% No and 45% Yes with 85% of the vote counted.

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POSTED BY BRIAN WANG AT 9/18/2014

Ocean Acidification $2 million XPrize

2014-09-18T13:03:00.000-07:00

The Wendy Schmidt Ocean Health XPRIZE is a $2 million global competition that challenges teams of engineers, scientists and innovators from all over the world to create pH sensor technology that will affordably, accurately and efficiently measure ocean chemistry from its shallowest waters… to its deepest depths.

There are two prize purses available (teams may compete for, and win, both purses):

A. $1,000,000 Accuracy award – Performance focused ($750,000 First Place, $250,000 Second Place): To the teams that navigate the entire competition to produce the most accurate, stable and precise pH sensors under a variety of tests.

B. $1,000,000 Affordability award – Cost and Use focused ($750,000 First Place, $250,000 Second Place): To the teams that produce the least expensive, easy-to-use, accurate, stable, and precise pH sensors under a variety of tests.

The Need for the Prize - The Problem

Our ocean is currently in the midst of a silent crisis. Rising levels of atmospheric carbon are resulting in higher levels of acidity. The potential biological, ecological, biogeochemical and societal implications are staggering. The absorption of human CO2 emissions is already having a profound impact on ocean chemistry, impacting the health of shellfish, fisheries, coral reefs, other ecosystems and our very survival.

The Need for the Prize - The Market Failure

While ocean acidification is well documented in a few temperate ocean waters, little is known in high latitudes, coastal areas and the deep sea, and most current pH sensor technologies are too costly, imprecise, or unstable to allow for sufficient knowledge on the state of ocean acidification.

The Need for the Prize - The Solution

Breakthrough sensors are urgently needed for scientists, managers and industry to turn the tide on ocean acidification and begin healing our ocean. A competition to incentivize the creation of these sensors for the study and monitoring of ocean acidification’s impact on marine ecosystems and ocean health will drive industry forward by providing the data needed to take action and produce results.

The Need for the Prize - Impact

Making a broad impact—one that reaches far beyond new sensing technologies—is critical to the success of the prize. It begins with a breakthrough pH sensor that will catalyze our ability to measure—and thus respond to—ocean acidification.

But the breakthroughs go far beyond this impact:

* Provide tools for the study and monitoring of ocean acidification’s impacts on marine creatures and ecosystems, and thus ocean health
* Catalyze ocean acidification research
* Catalyze the development of the ocean services industry – data, information, forecasting and more for global industry
* Inspire innovations in ocean sensing technology broadly for deployment in many platforms and to effectively monitor the health of the ocean
* Create both tools and support for policymakers and public officials
* Inspire the public to engage in solving ocean acidification

To learn more about the science behind ocean acidification, visit
NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

For more information on the impacts of ocean acidification on humans and marine life, visit
the NRDC’s website

NRDC has produced a film diving into the causes and consequences of ocean acidification:
http://www.nrdc.org/oceans/acidification/aboutthefilm.asp

For more on what you can do to help, visit the Deeper Dive at Ocean Conservancy:
http://www.oceanconservancy.org/our-work/ocean-acidification/deeper-dive.html

Counter Acting Ocean Acidication

Ten Ways States Can Combat Ocean Acidification (and Why they should) by Ryan P. Kelly* and Margaret R. Caldwell [48 page paper by Stanford researchers]

The ocean is becoming more acidic worldwide as a result of increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (“CO2”) and other pollutants. This fundamental change is likely to have substantial ecological and economic consequences globally. In this Article, we provide a toolbox for understanding and addressing the drivers of ocean acidification. We begin with an overview of the relevant science, highlighting known causes of chemical change in the coastal ocean. Because of the difficulties associated with controlling diffuse atmospheric pollutants such as CO2, we then focus on controlling smaller-scale agents of acidification, discussing ten legal and policy tools that state government agencies can use to mitigate the problem. This bottom-up approach does not solve the global CO2 problem, but instead offers a more immediate means of addressing the challenges of a rapidly changing ocean. States have ample legal authority to address many of the causes of ocean acidification; what remains is to implement that authority to safeguard our iconic coastal resources.

Mitigating Acidification

Ocean Acidification: Cause, Effect, and Potential Mitigation Approaches by Joanna M. Norton

The accumulation of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere is mirrored by an increase in dissolved carbonic acid in the oceans. Carbon dioxide dissolves easily into liquid, so the surface layers of the ocean are always in equilibrium with atmospheric pressures of the gas and provide a massive sink. Some of the dissolved carbon dioxide remains as carbonic acid, some breaks down further to form carbonate ion, but most is present in the form of bicarbonate (HCO3-); these are the components of the ocean’s buffering system to guard against pH changes. However, the buffer can be overwhelmed by continued inputs of carbon dioxide and lose its buffering capacity.

1) Sequestering carbon on the ocean floor by fertilizing certain ocean regions with iron, which can be a limiting nutrient in these areas

2) Addition of powdered limestone to ocean water to react with carbon dioxide and form bicarbonate has also been proposed (Rau and Caldiera 1999; Harvey 2007). This would neutralize the acidity of the added carbon dioxide, as well as push the oceanic carbon equation towards carbonic acid and allow for more calcium carbonate to stay undissolved in the shells of marine life. The ocean has a large, untapped ability to hold dissolved bicarbonate, if enough calcium carbonate (limestone) is made available for the reaction (Rau et al 2006). This process would essentially increase the buffering capacity of the ocean, by adding carbonate ion to offset the carbon dioxide absorbed by the ocean. Rau et al (2006) calculate that the ocean could hold enough bicarbonate that all the carbon in existing fossil fuel stores could be sequestered. In fact, this is how past rises in atmospheric carbon were eventually modulated, gradually, over millennia. They suggest accelerated weathering of limestone at locations of CO2 production. Harvey (2007) investigates adding powdered limestone to areas that would carry it in upwelling current. This method could be especially cheap and effective, and no negative side effects have been found, but these issues have not been thoroughly examined.

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Iraq war 3

2014-09-18T13:00:00.001-07:00

There will be about 1700 "coalition forces" in Iraq shortly. 1000 American special forces are already there. 600 Australians and 69 Canadians. The Kurds are being armed and Turkey is allowing the use of airbases for the air campaign. There are also US veterans who work with the private military contractors who are in the area (paid for by Iraq and others). CIA and other operatives are in the area.

Australia's elite special forces troops in Iraq will be gathering intelligence and targeting militants, either through ground operations or by directing air strikes, according to a senior defense force insider familiar with the SAS role. The claim runs counter to the impression being given by Prime Minister Tony Abbott, who continued to say on Wednesday that Australian forces would be "military advisers" to Iraqi and Peshmerga fighters and would "not themselves normally engage in actual combat".

Australia has a large anti-terrorism anti-ISIS raid right now that involves 800 policemen.

There are various cases made that the US should ignore ISIS in the middle east and not get back into Iraq and go in to Syria. Leave it Turkey and others in the region.

Just looking at US politics shows why the US and other nations involvement is going to keep ramping up.
Obama has midterms coming up and needs to look less weak.
He needs to out coalition build George Bush 1 and George Bush 2.
Iraq still has oil.
The Republicans (other than Rand Paul and some others) are pushing to regain what was won from Iraq War 2.

Nextbigfuture has made the case that after 13 years of war in Afghanistan and Iraq that there is the reasonable expectation that this will continue for many more years. The US needs to adopt a politically and economically sustainable foreign legion model.

Militarily the US homeland is safe and the threat is limited

Small scale actions could be launched into the US.
However, the New York police department alone has 34500 uniformed officers and a budget of $4.8 billion.
As we know from Ferguson, the police departments of the United States have a lot of fairly recent military equipment.

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Why it might have been reasonable for the Iraqi soldiers to desert rather than fight Isis and how a foreign legion could help solve it

2014-09-18T12:55:00.000-07:00

Before I made the case that a US foreign legion was apragmatic economic solution for the USA.

Consider now the position of a soldier in Iraqi army.

The final straw was the death of a friend, killed two weeks ago by a sniper’s bullet. The infantryman, Bashar al-Halbousi, deserted, making the same choice as hundreds of other soldiers in his battalion, he said.

“The state is weak,” Mr. Halbousi said. “This will be an endless battle.”

The militants came in waves, sending suicide bombers when their ammunition grew scarce. Mohamed said that eight of his friends had died and that he almost did, too, when a mortar shell struck his Humvee.

After months of grinding conflict against a resurgent militant movement, the Iraqi Army is having its power blunted by a rise in desertions, turning the tide of the war and fragmenting an institution, trained and funded by the United States, that some hoped would provide Iraqis a common sense of citizenship.

In interviews over several days, soldiers and army commanders said the desertions had become widespread, with thousands of men laying down their arms, gutting front-line units across the country. Before the troops dissolved in Mosul, the army was losing as many as 300 soldiers a day, between desertions, deaths and injuries, according to a security analyst who works with the Iraqi government.

Some soldiers said their families begged them to leave the service. One 25-year-old deserter said his mother was so terrified of the fighting that she burned his uniform every time he returned home on leave. Two months ago, he said she raised the stakes, threatening to kill herself if he returned to his unit.

Officers in the Iraqi army were purged of competent leaders and replaced with political cronies of Prime minister Malaki.
You cannot trust there would be a competent leadership and a sustained and resolved campaign to defeat the enemy completely.
The US pulled out years ago and now has stated they will not send soldiers to fight the enemy in Iraq and Syria.
The army could have Sunni sympathizers to Isis who would inform on your identity so you have to think about protecting your family from later reprisals.

If the USA had a dedicated commitment to a foreign legion

If the USA had a commitment to using a 150,000-500,000 strong foreign legion to keep the peace (pax americana) then how could this be different. This would also be different. If the soldiers knew that they were part of long term commitment to bringing peace, stability and prosperity to the region, they would have belief in the cause that were fighting and dieing.

In the french foreign legion, identities are often hidden. Everyone is Jean Paul. It can become tougher for someone to find out who or where your family is.

If there is a long term US commitment to complete victory then there is less concern about reprisals.

If there is faith in the competence and training of the officers then there is discipline and morale when the fighting gets tough.

The USA would have to ensure that there were competent trained officers.

The USA would have to make a lifelong commitment to foreign legionaires in terms of ability to earn pensions and health benefits even if salaries were in the $1500/month range.

The implicit contract would have to be -

have belief in the justness of the cause
dedicate yourselves to us
we will dedicate ourselves to you
we will try to keep you as safe as possible through consistent policy and strong leadership
you will help keep us safe
we will help keep your family safe

we will raise the necessary force to do what must be done
we will vet who is in here and keep it clear of traitors
trust your political leadership will be steady to the cause
trust your military leaders are competent

This 15 to 50 divisions would then have the morale and commitment and staying power to to grind out a multi-year war to clean out Syria and Iraq. They would also have the full backing and close air support of the US air force. They would thus know they were not have an equal ground fight. They could call in an air strike.

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POSTED BY BRIAN WANG AT 9/18/2014

Why air power is not enough to force surrender in simple terms

2014-09-18T09:43:00.001-07:00

The Bombing of Dresden was an attack on the city of Dresden, the capital of the German state of Saxony, that took place in the final months of WW2. Between 22,700 and 25,000 people were killed.

However, this and other air campaigns did not force the surrender of Germany. The firebombing of Tokyo which killed over 100,000 did not force the surrender of Japan.

It was capture and killing and disarming of the vast majority of the soldiers and generals and leaders that led to the surrender of Germany.

Operation rolling thunder had over 300,000 attacks but did not force North Vietnam to Surrender

Operation Rolling Thunder was the title of a gradual and sustained US 2nd Air Division (later Seventh Air Force), US Navy, and Republic of Vietnam Air Force (VNAF) aerial bombardment campaign conducted against the Democratic Republic of Vietnam (North Vietnam) from 2 March 1965 until 2 November 1968, during the Vietnam War.

Between March 1965 and November 1968, aircraft of the U.S. Air Force had flown 153,784 attack sorties against North Vietnam, while the Navy and Marine Corps had added another 152,399. On 31 December 1967, the Department of Defense announced that 864,000 tons of American bombs had been dropped on North Vietnam during Rolling Thunder, compared with 653,000 tons dropped during the entire Korean War and 503,000 tons in the Pacific theater during the Second World War.

Approximately 1,000 casualties had been inflicted on the North Vietnamese population per week, or approximately 90,000 for the 44-month period, 72,000 of whom were civilians.

With bombing I am alive or dead

Bombing means that people are left alive (with injuries or without) or dead. Those who are not dead still have their weapons and can fight. The planes are not staying their constantly.

Bombing can destroy bridges, road, rail and other targets.

If the bombs kill my family then I have nothing left to lose and will continue to fight to avenge them.

If the bombs kill me then I will be stopped but my comrades can continue.

Soldiers can capture, disarm and threaten to kill the civilians

Losing to enemy soldiers means that they gain the military control and can confiscate the weapons, they can find and enter the bunkers and clean them out, they hold a gun to your head or the head of your family and get you to surrender or they will come back and kill you or your family.

I have killed your toughest, jailed the others and taken your weapons and threaten to slaughter the rest. This forces a surrender. Or the stick or damage is less severe and the carrot is added that surrender and behave and we will also help rebuild your cities.

Why was Hiroshima and Nagasaki different ?

Hiroshima and Nagasaki were not different because the nuclear bombs killed more than the firebombing of Tokyo. They were different because they were the threat that the US will keep killing the Japanese cities until there is surrender. The Firebombing of Tokyo seemed within the realm of something that imperial Japan could continue to function and adapt and endure by hiding in tunnels.

Published by Brian Wang - 9/18/14

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Hello Next Big Future!

2014-09-17T18:27:00.001-07:00

Top 10 Community Concerns:

1. Will we lose our old Disqus profiles and comments? (Honk, GoatGuy, Others)

A) No, NBF users will retain all historical comments and users will have their existing screen names. Note: At the moment it will be necessary to sign in to SolidOpinion and create a profile in order to comment on the mirror site. Users who choose to do so will have their Disqus comments imported into this profile once the final integration takes place on the main site. Users who do not wish to make a profile will have their screen names and comments automatically carried over as well.

2. Will we have the ability to quickly edit our comments? Why the redacted should it cost points? (Anthropic, GoatGuy, Others)

A) Comment editing is available, quick, and does not cost points. (Note: we are limiting the impact of the point system)

3. Gamification does not suit the NBF community. Lots of fluff, it's unnecessary. (Uzza, Others)

A) We have a lot of features and are implementing only those features which will enhance the NBF community. No fluff, we promise.

4. Is it all about ignoring other commenters? Customizing what they see? This is balkanization like cable news. (Publiseur, Others)

A) The platform is set up so that the highest rated comments and the highest ranking commenters will rise to the top and guide the discussion. SolidOpinion is not a "pick and choose" commenting platform that allows individuals to sort what they see; rather it's a community based pulpit that gives additional exposure to those comments and commenters ranked highest in the community. We have the option for single users to ignore individual commenters but that function will not be present in the NBF integration.

5. Are you trying to turn us (the commenters) into a revenue stream? (Honk)

A) Though we are compatible with micro-transactions, that kind of environment does not suit the NBF community. Don’t worry Honk, we’re not going to start digging in your pockets. Instead, we're providing a better revenue generation avenue than Disqus does through targeted ads at the bottom of the page.

6. Monetized micro-transactions look like a scam. (Honk)

A) Micro-transactions are available, however, they will not be an apparent aspect in the SolidOpinion integration of NBF. No NBF user will EVER be required to make a micro-transaction. We want to employ tools that enhance the community, not detract from it.

7. Acclimate us. Take us on a journey. Don't push us off a cliff. (IKNOW)

A) We will provide open a/b testing through this mirror site to introduce NBF users to SolidOpinion. This will be a great way for us to internalize your feedback and provide fixes, as well as provide a place for NBF users to experience the comment system before a full integration. We (SolidOpinion) are also here to answer any and all questions or comments, directly.

8. I like the ability to push high-ranking comments to the top. (Anthropic)

A) So do we. The SolidOpinion system on NBF will be set up to display the highest ranking comments and comments from the highest-ranking users at the top. Users have the ability to grow their rank by earning points through positive participation, thus getting their own comments featured more frequently as an incentive.

9. I like having moderation in place. (Anthropic)

A) We have a multi tiered moderation approach meaning blacklists for certain vitriolic or offensive words, human moderators, and community moderation ability.

10. No emojis – for the love of God. (Paul451)

A) Emojis are an optional function and – like all the SolidOpinion functions – can be enabled/disabled by Brian. We will be launching without Emojis.

SolidOpinion benefits we'd like to highlight:

Your input so far has been invaluable and we hope to hear more. In the meantime we'd like to take a moment to highlight a few of the ways our platform will help enhance the NBF community.

Reputation building and incentives through the point system.

Users gain points in SolidOpinion when they participate. Those points decide a user's rank and higher ranking users (like GoatGuy) are given increased ability and moderation capability.
Comments from higher ranking users will be featured more prominently, helping provide direction to the community discourse. Think of it like giving GoatGuy a microphone.
Lesser-ranked commenters have be able to earn increased status and ability by gaining points. This incentivizes positive participation which is good for the community, reduces moderation costs, and rewards NBF’s most influential members for their contributions.

Increased moderation functionality.

This cuts costs and keeps the NBF community a safe, accessible place. Better moderation encourages new users to join the conversation and reinforces the contributions of existing members.

Functionality that suits the NBF community.

We have a lot of functionality. Some functionality works for certain sites and some functions don’t. What we will provide that isn’t currently available on Disqus – yet very applicable to NBF – are things like video and picture embedding in-line and the ability to annotate another user's comment. This provides a cleaner conversation space for those who would like to post videos and pictures while not linking out to another site. This is good for Brian’s traffic and good for the community’s expressive ability.
If there is functionality you don’t like – tell us. If there is functionality you’d like to see – tell us. Unlike Disqus we don’t force a “one size fits all” solution on a community. We’re here to provide tools that help the discussion.

Community building support from SolidOpinion.

We are the best at what we do – build communities. We use researched-backed methods to help encourage growth based on each individual community’s needs. This is good for Brian, good for NBF users, and good for future NBFers as well.

Sincerely,

The SolidOpinion Team

Spacex has twelfth successful launch and musings on reuse, refueling and geosynch orbits

2014-09-08T07:38:00.007-07:00

SpaceX delivered another commercial communications satellite to orbit early Sunday, completing its second launch in just over a month for Hong Kong-based AsiaSat. SpaceX confirmed the rocket deployed its payload as planned 32 minutes into the flight, earning the Falcon 9 a 12th successful flight in as many tries since 2010. Because the launch was to a high orbit more than 20,000 miles up, the Falcon 9 booster did not have enough extra fuel for SpaceX to try flying it back to a soft ocean landing for recovery. Goatguy noted that the not enough fuel for reuse from Geosync Did not “have enough extra fuel” to fly back. “I told you so” would be both childish and appropriate. Really - I [Goatguy] think all the compromises that deal with returnable launch vehicles require “mass, mass, and more mass” - whether as with the space-shuttle that mass was a combination of high-durability titanium for the solid-rocket-boosters (which were both recoverable, and re-useable after substantial remanufacture), and the space-shuttles mass-invested-in-wings-and-heat-shield-tiles … or, if it is invested in heat-shields for the “wrong way pointed” engines as they come hurling through the atmosphere, firing to decelerate, requiring the mass of fuel to accomplish the braking maneuver. Mass, is mass. And the point there is, that the venerable (and let’s be honest: totally, completely awesome, technologically!) Space Shuttle supposedly couldn’t be made economical because its launch cost was too high, because it promise of fly, land, recondition, repeated cycle was too expensive, because things got damaged (those darn tiles) along the way back, and so on. And it required all that stuff because it was WAY more massive (as a return vehicle) because it had to house all the goodies, and a big arm, and a bunch of engines, and all the rest. Yet, we must assume that hundreds, if not thousands of simulations of mission, refueling, reconditioning, timing and costing were done; maybe there are arbitrary things in the design of a Space Program that aren’t left to the minimization or optimization of a mathematician’s integral calculus equations, but … I’m pretty sure that in the end, there are going to be some really significant problems that are as yet either unanticipated, or even more cynically, anticipated, but suppressed that will keep the “great dream” from coming to profitable, $1,000 per pound, delivered to LEO, pricing. Nextbigfuture comment There is the concept of fuel depots in low earth orbit. Reusable rockets could refuel in low earth orbit to go to Geosynch and back. So those users who are will to go cheaper to geosynch would use refueling or orbital tugs for final Geosynch placement. If you liked this article, please give it a quick review on ycombinator or StumbleUpon. Thanks

US Army tested 10 KW truck mounted laser and scaling to 50 kw and then 100 kw for destroying drones and mortars

2014-09-08T07:38:00.003-07:00

[Army-technology.com] Boeing has successfully demonstrated the effectiveness of the high-energy laser mobile demonstrator (HEL MD) in maritime conditions during a testing at Eglin Air Force Base in Florida, US. Undertaken in collaboration with the US Army, the demonstration involved a HEL MD that used a 10kW high-energy laser installed on an Oshkosh military vehicle, and successfully engaged more than 150 aerial targets, including 60mm mortars and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Boeing Directed Energy Systems director Dave DeYoung said: "Under windy, rainy and foggy weather conditions in Florida, these engagements were the most challenging to date with a 10kW laser on HEL MD. Lithium ion batteries power the HEL MD’s laser. Batteries are charged by a 60 kW diesel generator, so if the Army can keep the fuel tank full, they can shoot down incoming threats indefinitely. The system uses a telescope and infrared-based, wide field of view camera to locate and designate targets. Boeing has designed the system to be operated by a driver and an operator with a laptop and an Xbox controller. Putting it on a truck makes the system mobile, and thus much more useful in battle situations. It only has the cost of diesel fuel. The laser system can fire repeatedly without expending valuable munitions or additional manpower. The team plans to install a 50kW or 60kW laser on HEL MD to demonstrate counter RAM and UAV capability at the tactically significant power level. The 50kW or 60kW is scheduled to be upgraded to a 100kW class laser in subsequent demonstrations, while the supporting thermal and power subsystems will also be upgraded to increase the effective range of the laser or decrease the required laser time on target. If you liked this article, please give it a quick review on ycombinator or StumbleUpon. Thanks

Africa potential and challenges for increasing agricultural yield

2014-09-08T07:37:00.003-07:00

[NY Times] Africa’s agricultural yields are less than half the global average, and about 25 percent of what they could potentially yield. Agricultural productivity in Africa is growing at about half the rate the population is growing. Africa has long been a continent of small farmers, half of them women, raising maize with no fertilizer, pesticide or irrigation, on a tiny plot with a hoe. Now the little these farmers have is endangered by drought. Climate change is making Africa’s weather more extreme and erratic. Africa loses about a fifth of its maize crop because of drought. In many years, the loss is near-total. A survey of farmers in 12 countries found that in the last decade, they averaged about three wipeout years. In 2000, the first seeds for drought-tolerant maize were planted in Malawi and Zimbabwe. Now three million farmers in 13 countries in Africa are using them. (All these strains are conventionally bred, not genetically modified.) “One drought is something that throws farmers back into poverty,” said Bänziger. “They lose everything. During a severe drought, a farmer may harvest 5 percent of the ears of a normal crop. With drought-tolerant maize, the farmer can get 50 percent. We want to get to the point where we can save every plant.” Pesticides and inorganic fertilizers are bad for the environment. But this is not an argument that anyone who eats in America should be making to African subsistence farmers. In 2006, an African Union Declaration on agriculture adopted the goal of 50 kilograms of fertilizer per hectare planted. At the time, Africa was using only eight kilos per hectare; America was using 120. Africa needs vastly more fertilizer use, not less. The Green Revolution failed in Africa for reasons that remain major obstacles today. Absent research, roads, storage, extension capacity, credit and subsidies — high-yield maize will produce little, or its gains will go only to wealthier farmers.

Nation Master shows that the lowest agricultural yields are in Africa [mainly 2008 statistics]. Below are kilograms cereal grain yields per hectare. Developed countries have about 6000+ kg per hectare and the world average is about 3500 kilograms per hectare.

Lighter green in the map means lower yield per hectare A lot of issues to get better. Fertilizer usage, local fertilizer production, irrigation, improved seeds and crops, roads

[UN] It is difficult to overestimate the importance of agriculture to Africa’s economic prospects. Some 65% of Africa’s labour force is engaged in agriculture, and the sector accounts for about 32% of the region’s GDP, according to the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), an independent organization advocating for improvements in Africa’s agriculture. According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), growth in sub-Saharan agriculture employment accounted for half of all employment growth between 1999 and 2009. One important obstacle to increased productivity has been the steady deterioration of Africa’s soils, noted Mr. Amit Roy, the head of the International Fertilizer Development Centre (IFDC), a US-based institute that promotes agricultural advancement in developing countries. “When farmers plant the same fields season after season and cannot afford to replace the soil nutrients taken up by their crops, the soil is literally mined of life,” he says. An estimated 8 million tonnes of nutrients are depleted annually. Replenishing the nitrogen, potassium, phosphorus and other minerals absorbed by plants is therefore vital to keep crop yields from declining. Part of the answer lies in better farming methods, including expanding the range of crops grown, improving soil conservation practices and utilizing improved seeds and technology. But the key to launching a “revolution” in African agriculture, Mr. Roy told Africa Renewal, is much greater use of fertilizer. “Traditionally, African farmers use the slash-and-burn method,” he said. “They burn off a section of land and farm it for a season or two, then clear another plot and leave the old field fallow.” But population increases and growing land shortages have forced farmers to cultivate the same fields repeatedly, stripping the land of nutrients and resulting in smaller harvests and less income. Such pressures have also led farmers to clear land poorly suited for cultivation, which contributes to soil erosion and yields only marginal increases in harvests. An estimated 50,000 hectares of Africa’s forests and 60,000 hectares of savannah are lost to such methods annually — resulting in severe environmental degradation and contributing to the decline in agricultural production per capita. Yet evidence suggests that even modest increases in the use of fertilizer — whether nitrogen, phosphorous or potassium — can have dramatic results. In Ethiopia, one study found that just one bottle cap’s worth of chemical fertilizer on each plant increased millet yields exponentially. The technique, known as “micro-dosing,” is regarded as particularly appropriate for Africa’s small-scale farmers, because it reduces costs and avoids damage to fragile soils from excessive chemical use. One way to make chemical fertilizers more available and affordable is to increase local production. This can reduce costs, ease the pressure on foreign currency reserves and shorten the supply chain to farmers. Although Africa consumes only about 1% of global fertilizer production and currently produces even less, prospects for the commercial manufacture of fertilizers are good. Nitrogen is among the most common elements on earth, but converting it into use for plants is energy-intensive. West Africa’s vast and largely untapped natural gas resources, notes Mr. Roy, therefore make the region ideally suited for the manufacture of nitrogen fertilizer. Africa also has ample deposits of phosphorus and already exports the mineral to Chinese and Indian farmers. If these minerals can be utilized in local production, Africa would need to import only potassium fertilizer. But investment in fertilizer production will only come in response to increased demand from farmers, Mr. Roy asserts. Persuading Africa’s family farmers that purchasing fertilizer is worth the money and effort will require significant improvements in rural transport networks and infrastructure, an expanded network of rural farm suppliers and markets, and greater financial returns, including protection from price fluctuations and subsidized Northern competitors. NEPAD researchers have estimated the initial investment of irrigating 20 million more hectares of African farmland at $37 billion, with an additional $31 billion in operating costs through 2015. Rebuilding rural supply networks and marketing systems so farmers have the means and incentives to produce more is another major challenge. Government-run agriculture marketing boards used to perform some of these functions, providing stable prices, credit extension services, improved seeds and technology to local farmers. Mr. Roy says that expanding private sector involvement in rural marketing and supply activities is a long-term solution. But he acknowledges that high poverty rates in the countryside and the need for “public goods” like roads and markets give African governments a key role in creating incentives for private investment.

Background on the debate about the Green Revolution which saved over a billion lives Green Revolution sustainable options for ending hunger and poverty. Curse or Blessing? International Food Policy Research Institute If you liked this article, please give it a quick review on ycombinator or StumbleUpon. Thanks

Kirk Sorensen describes the liquid thorium development at Flibe Energy

2014-09-08T07:36:00.004-07:00

Kirk Sorensen (of Flibe Energy) offers "the industrial perspective" on how the upcoming "nuclear retirement retirement cliff" of today's plants, combined with large numbers of coal plants facing retirement, create opportunity for the Liquid-Fueled Thorium Reactor. Department of Energy's "Nuclear Energy Research and Development Roadmap" states "it is ultimately industry's decision which commercial technologies will be deployed. The federal role falls more squarely in the realm of R&D." Kirk notes that informal talks with NRC personnel, they have a great deal of optimism regarding regulation of LFTR thanks to MSR's inherent safety features. "The NRC is happy to look at anything, so long as you pay their billing rates... sometimes being different isn't all bad if you can help them achieve a higher level of safety." Flibe Energy is currently conducting a year-long feasibility study and that should be completed by the end of this year (2014). If you liked this article, please give it a quick review on ycombinator or StumbleUpon. Thanks

Terrestrial Energy has updated its molten salt reactor design

2014-09-08T07:36:00.000-07:00

Terrestrial Energy is rethinking energy. In this video, members of the Terrestrial Energy team explain the benefits of IMSR technology, and explore the business itself. Atomic Insights took a recent look at Terrestrial Energy The main technical description from Atomic Insights is below. Terrestrial Energy believe there are fundamental choices that can alter the competitive balance. TEI’s choice has been to design a reactor that is more akin to a chemical reactor, with fuel that is a dissolved reactant in a solution (in this case, a salt solution) where the solution provides the transport mechanism for the heat produced in a strongly exothermic reaction. Of course, the reaction in this case is not a chemical reaction; it is a fission chain reaction. The hot reactor fluid is circulated through multiple redundant heat exchangers sealed into the same container as the reactor. Solar salt circulates on the other side of the primary heat exchangers to transport the reactor heat to a second set of heat exchangers where water receives the heat and boils into high temperature, high pressure steam. The salt circuits operate at high temperature but low pressure. Low pressure enables containers that are simpler, cheaper and quicker to produce compared to the containers performing similar functions in a water-cooled reactor. Terrestrial Energy has chose to operate its molten reactor on low enriched uranium — which it describes as a dry tinder — vice thorium, which is the frequently targeted molten salt reactor fuel. According to TEI’s web page explaining that choice, thorium is analogous to “wet wood” and needs a “torch” like plutonium-239 or highly enriched uranium (either 235 or 233) in order to be lit and sustained. TEI knows there is plenty of available natural uranium at an affordable cost, and that there is plenty of capability to produce the correct enrichment with the ability to expand capacity as needed. Uranium fuel has a well-established supply chain; using it will simplify licensing. TEI is aggressive about commercialization; it is aiming to simplify both designs and related processes in order to drive down schedule-related costs. TEI understands that graphite is a well-proven and understood moderator and structural material for high temperature, liquid-fueled reactors, but TEI also understands graphite’s characteristics of storing energy and changing dimensions under a sustained neutron flux. Replacing graphite components would be complicated; designing them to last the lifetime of the reactor would require research and development with uncertain results. TEI has a solution for that issue in the form of producing sealed reactor/primary heat exchanger units with installed redundancy that will last for roughly seven years before needing to be replaced. Each unit will have a shielded space for two reactor modules, one will be in use and one will be cooling off. The design philosophy is similar to that used in staged rockets; the difference is that TEI will not throw away used reactors; they will contain useful materials that can be recycled when conditions are right for that activity to begin. TEI has developed conceptual designs for three different power outputs aimed at various niches in the power market, ranging from 29 MWe to 290 MWe. Any of the basic power modules can be combined at a power station to provide a large total output power level. Canadian has a performance-based nuclear reactor licensing process. That process should take several years less than the one that would be required for a US license. If you liked this article, please give it a quick review on ycombinator or StumbleUpon. Thanks

Fusion isotope breeders can work with thorium molten salt reactors for nonproliferation

2014-09-08T07:35:00.003-07:00

Nonproliferation role of 231Pa and 232U from a fusion breeder for the thorium molten salt reactor by Ralph Moir [21 pages] Initial and makeup 233U fuel for a thorium molten salt reactor can be produced in a fusion breeder with 2.4% 232U that will make this fuel “self-protected” by its strong gamma radiation according to IAEA standards. 232U significantly contributes towards nonproliferation of nuclear weapons use. Fusion technology even early in its development towards a commercial power plant nevertheless can produce 233U by neutron capture in 232Th and simultaneously produce both 231Pa and 232U in a neutron reaction having a 6 MeV threshold making fusion’s 14 MeV neutrons uniquely well suited for this purpose. The 231Pa can make 232U by neutron capture in the fusion breeder in large enough quantity to make the simultaneously produced 233U self protected with 2.4% 232U. Excess 231Pa can be extracted and exported to fission reactors where by neutron capture 232U is made in situ for nonproliferation purposes. When the fission reactor’s conversion ratio of fertile to fissile approaches unity (breeding or isobreeding) its fissile 233U is produced internally with too little 232U nonproliferant made to satisfy the 2.4% rule because fission’s neutrons are below the 6 MeV threshold. In this case, as the conversion ratio approaches unity, 231Pa is supplied so that the production of 232U by neutron capture in 231Pa keeps 232U/233U=2.4%. In the long term, producing 233U by fusion breeding avoids the need for isotope enrichment facilities to be greatly expanded thus contributing to nonproliferation. In the short term, before fusion bred 231Pa, 232U and 233U become available, the required fissile material can come from enriched 235U with enough 238U to be denatured for nonproliferation or can come from plutonium from spent fuel. Isotope breeding can be a significant revenue stream for neutronic fusion systems compared to the revenue from electricity generation. If you liked this article, please give it a quick review on ycombinator or StumbleUpon. Thanks