MLB Free Picks

MLB Sept 17 - Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals

2010-09-17T16:25:00.000-07:00

Cleveland starter Carlos Carrasco has allowed 5 runs total in his 3 starts this year. The Indians are 34-16-2 UNDER their last 52 games vs. righty starters. Cleveland is 41-18-3 UNDER off a win. The Tribe are 6-0 UNDER their 6 games vs. a team with a losing record. Kansas City starter Kyle Davies has allowed just 5 runs total in his last 3 starts. The Royals are 12-3-1 UNDER with Davies as a home underdog and they are 10-1-2 UNDER in Davies last 13 starts when their opponent allowed 2 runs or less in their last game. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Carrasco vs. Davies)

TF

MLB Sept 17 - Chicago Cubs vs. Florida Marlins

2010-09-17T05:21:00.001-07:00

Florida has been a strong team over the total in the second half of the season, with a decent offense and wilting pitching. And speaking of wilting pitching, the Cubs come to town with Ryan Dempster, who has a 6.14 ERA his last three starts. The team went 2-1 over the total in those starts, including losses of 18-5 and 14-7. Alex Sanabia of the Marlins is no ace, with a 4.67 ERA his last three starts and Florida is 5-2 over the total his last 5 starts. Look for an offensive show, Play the Marlins/Cubs Over the total.

MLB Sept 17 - Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners

2010-09-17T05:20:00.001-07:00

If Felix Hernandez does not win the A.L. Cy Young Award, he can thank the Texas Rangers. Hernandez is 0-3 with a 6.38 ERA in four starts against the A.L. West’s leading team this season. He has given up 18 runs and 31 hits in 24 innings pitched against Texas. The righty is coming off a losing effort in Anaheim against the Angels where he gave up seven runs and six hits in 6.3 innings of work. Michael Young (21-66), Vlad Guerrero (16-56), David Murphy (11-42), Nelson Cruz (9-30), Elvis Andrus (10-28), Chris Davis (6-23), Julio Borbon (4-15), Matt Treanor (2-4), and Andres Blanco (1-3) all hit Hernandez well. Texas has won seven straight games while hitting .318 as a team over that span. Their potent offense is putting up 7.3 runs per game over their last seven games as well. They are 5-1 in Seattle this season and 14-10 over the past three seasons. The Mariners bullpen is 9-11 with a 4.00 ERA at home this season.

C.J. Wilson has been a pleasant surprise for the Rangers this season. He is 14-6 with a 3.30 ERA in 29 starts. The lefty is 4-4 with a 3.09 ERA on the road, and Wilson has yet to lose to Seattle this season going 1-0 with a 3.71 ERA in three starts. Casey Kotchman (0-8), Russell Branyan (0-6), Michael Saunders (1-5), Josh Wilson (1-4), Ryan Langerhans (0-3), and Matt Tuiasosopo (0-2) all struggle with Wilson. Seattle is 12-31 against left-handed starters while hitting just .234 as a team against them. The Mariners have lost seven straight games while scoring just 18 runs over that span. Texas also has the bullpen edge in this game as they are 11-6 with a 3.20 ERA on the road. Since Texas is in much better form, we’ll recommend a play on the Rangers over the Mariners tonight.

MLB Sept 16 - Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants

2010-09-16T09:22:00.001-07:00

San Francisco starter Jonathan Sanchez is 18-11 in his 29 starts this year. The Giants are 35-16 their last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Giants are 6-0 with Sanchez vs. a team with a losing record. The Giants are 8-3 their last 11 games overall and they are 17-7 vs. a team with a losing record. Dodger starter Ted Lilly has been on the losing side in his last 3 starts. Lilly has allowed 12 runs in his last 17 innings of work. Los Angeles is 2-6 their last 8 games vs. the Giants. The Dodgers are 6-20 their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning record. PLAY ON SAN FRANCISCO (Sanchez vs. Lilly)

MLB Sept 16 - Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants

2010-09-16T05:01:00.001-07:00

The Dodgers have a reliable veteran starter in lefty Ted Lilly going up against a light hitting San Francisco attack, ranked 9th in the NL in runs and 11th in on base percentage. He's 3-1 against the Giants. Meanwhile, the Dodgers love facing starter Jonathan Sanchez, who is 1-5 with a 5.27 ERA against LA, making the visiting dog very live. Play the LA Dodgers.

MLB Sept 16 - Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox

2010-09-16T05:00:00.000-07:00

Much like the Phillies have done in the NL East, the Twins are lighting up the Jets and running way with the AL Central. The Twins lead the White Sox by seven games with 20 games left. They have played so well of late that they are just 1 1/2 games behind the Yankees for best record in baseball. Now, that is really flying under the radar. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Twins will win this game. Carl Pavano will take the ball and he has been quite good all season long. he sports a 3.47 ERA and a 1.137 WHIP in 29 starts; 3.13 ERA and a 1.052 WHIP in 16 road starts; 2.74 ERA and 0.957 WHIP over his last three games. CWS starter Buehrle has not won a decision since August 25 a stretch of four starts. In those three starts he allowed 25 hits spanning just 20 innings of work. Twins bullpen has been fantastic posting a 3.30 ERA and a 1.267 WHIP spanning 392 1/3 innings of work. They have posted a 2.97 ERA and a 1.168 WHIP in 200 1/2 innings on the road; 2.37 ERA and a 1.105 WHIP over the past seven games. Twins are a solid 14-3 (+10.5 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times per game in the second half of this season.

MLB Sept 14 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Florida Marlins

2010-09-14T08:29:00.002-07:00

Adalberto Mendez shut the Phillies down in his MLB debut last week, but I don't expect his second outing against the NL East leaders to go as smoothly. Now that the Phillies have seen him, I fully expect them to hit him. Philly has won 15 of its last 18 on the road against the Marlins, including 6 of 7 this year, and it should be in good hands with Cole Hamels, who enters in top form. The southpaw hasn't given up a run in his last 25 innings of work. The Phillies are a dominant 10-1 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record, and I expect them to build on this trend tonight. Take Philly.

MLB Sept 14 - Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Indians

2010-09-14T08:29:00.000-07:00

The Indians offense hasn't been much lately. They have gone Under the total in nine straight games while scoring more than five runs in a game just once. They'll face an improving Scott Kazmir who has given up seven runs and 12 hits in his last 17.3 innings pitched. He gave up one run and two hits in six innings of work the last time he faced the Indians. Shelley Duncan (2-10), Travis Hafner (1-6), Asdrubal Cabrera (0-6), Jayson Nix (1-5), Matt LaPorta (0-3), Michael Brantley (0-3), and Chris Gimenez (0-1) have poor numbers against the lefty. Cleveland is hitting just .215 in their last seven games. They have gone Under in 38 of their 71 home games this season, and we expect another low-scoring game tonight.

MLB Sept 13 - New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays

2010-09-13T04:39:00.001-07:00

On Monday the Free Play is on the Over in the Yankees at Tampa Bay game. Rotation numbers 919/920 at 7:10 eastern. These two teams have played 11 games with 9 of them flying over the total. Tonight their is a solid totals system that applies to this one. We want to play the over for road favorites off a road dog loss vs an opponent off a 1 run road dog loss. This system cashed in the low 80/s percent range. Both teams are scoring over 5 runs per game in divisional play. Tampa has played over in 8 of 10 September games, while the Yankees have gone over 9 of 13 times as a road favorite from -100 to -125. Tampa has been tearing it up of late averaging over 7 runs per game the past week. CC. Sabathia has a decent but not dominating 3.74 road era. D.Price pitching for Tampa has allowed 10 earned runs in 12+ innings in 2 starts vs the Yankees this year. Consider the over here tonight. On Monday its the NL Total of the Month with a Power system that averages over 13 runs per game + the NFL Triple Angle Winner. For the free play take the Yankees at Tampa to go over the total. RV

MLB Sept 13 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles

2010-09-13T04:38:00.000-07:00

The Orioles are playing some good baseball right now; they’ve won six of their last eight games. They return home to host Toronto who has lost four of their last five games. Brian Matusz has been key in this turn around for Baltimore by winning three straight starts against the Yankees, Red Sox, and White Sox. The tall lefty has given up just six runs and 14 hits in his last 19 innings of work. Matusz struggled in his lone start against Toronto this season back in July, but he has turned things around since then. Toronto is 11-19 against southpaw pitchers this season while hitting .217 and scoring 3.5 runs per game against them. The Blue Jays are 34-37 on the road and hitting just .241 away from home.

Toronto’s Marc Rzepczynski is struggling this season going 1-4 with a 6.63 ERA in eight starts. He has given up 12 runs and 18 hits in his last 14.7 innings pitched. The Blue Jays starter has faced the Orioles just once in his career. Last year, he gave up three runs and five hits in six innings of work against them. Baltimore is hitting nearly .300 as a team in their past eight games, and since they have one of the better records in the league since Buck Showalter took over, we’ll look for their winning ways to continue in this game tonight.

MLB Sept 12 - Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland Athletics Oakland Athletics

2010-09-12T05:45:00.000-07:00

Play On: Oakland -115 (Beckett/Braden) Listed

Oakland is 32-15 in day games this year. Boston has lost 6 of their last 8 games overall. Oakland has won 6 of their last 8 games overall. Boston is 14-20 this year in day games. Oakland bullpen has a 3.78 ERA overall this year and a 2.93 ERA at home this season. Josh Beckett has a 5.91 ERA overall this year and a 6.18 ERA on the road this season. Dallas Braden has a 3.47 ERA overall this year, 3.69 ERA at home and a 3.32 ERA his last 3 starts. Oakland is 4-1 at home vs Boston this year. We'll recommend a small play on Oakland today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

MLB Sept 12 - Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians Minnesota Twins

2010-09-12T05:43:00.000-07:00

The Twins nipped the Indians last night in extra innings and they can take the series in Cleveland with a win on Sunday afternoon. Minnesota's offense has deserted them a bit, but they don't need much to defeat Cleveland. With the shutout last night, the Indians have scored just 24 runs over their last nine games. Kevin Slowey gets his fourth crack at the Tribe this season. He's 2-0 with a no-decision in the third outing. Overall, Slowey is 5-2 with a 3.83 ERA in nine career starts against Cleveland. Shin-Soo Choo (4-21), Luis Valbuena (1-8), Trevor Crowe (0-4), Jayson Nix (0-3), Lou Marson (0-3), and Shelley Duncan (0-2) all struggle with Slowey. Cleveland is 16-31 in the daytime while hitting just .242 under the sunlight. The Twins bullpen is outstanding on the road sporting an ERA right around 3.10.

Cleveland’s Mitch Talbot may be hitting a bit of a wall. Sure, he picked up a win his last time out, but that was against light-hitting Seattle. Talbot is 3-7 with a 6.03 ERA in 14 home starts this season. He gave up 11 runs and 16 hits in his last two starts in Cleveland against the White Sox and Athletics. Talbot did defeat Minnesota back on April 22nd, but the Twins are drastically better now. They have lost just three times since August 29th as they expand their A.L. Central lead. Minnesota is 28-20 in the daytime hitting .280 as a unit. The Twins hold all the edges here and we expect them to get a solid road win this afternoon.