MLB Prospect Guide

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2013-05-09T16:48:00.001-05:00

Updating my Shadow System

2013-04-30T07:00:00.000-05:00

This year, I'm doing this a little differently. From here forward, I will only be looking at players I drafted and international players I signed, eliminating existing Astros. I want this to be my team, not take credit for the great job that Jeff Luhnow and company have done in Houston liquidating MLB talent for prospects. To simplify the 2010 and 2011 drafts in which I intended to break the bank and sign all the players, I will only carry forward my picks in rounds 1-10 and the players that actually signed. This is more realistic than signing all the players. I did that to show how quickly a large investment at the amateur acquisition level could turn a team around. I will post a follow up about that in a year or two, using the logic I used when I did the drafts but for now, this is my shadow system.

This is my way of showing who I identified and thought were more valuable than others, while not losing out on all the talent I identified. This way, I can re-draft talent that I like that I previously drafted. I'm losing out on potential 1st round picks like Jonathon Crawford, Nick Burdi and others over the next two years but I can take them again if I'd like. I didn't like them enough to spend a high pick on them, so I can't claim I knew better than the rest in that way.

I also decided to look at my 2008 and 2009 rankings and while I didn't do a shadow draft for them, I went through the rankings I did and took the top player available at each Astros pick for those two seasons. I will add them to the system as well to help fill the rosters in and speed up the process by two years. I think I have improved considerably at talent evaluation since then but I still grabbed a few excellent picks, mostly because the teams that drafted them paid overslot when that was still a thing. I'm happy with the way the system shakes out and now I can start thinking about who I want to add this year.

These are the players that I will carry forward:

MLB

A.J. Griffin P
Justin Smoak 1B
Robbie Grossman OF

AAA

Sonny Gray P
Seth Maness P
Chris Hernandez P
Kyle Gibson P
James Paxton P
Jorge Reyes P
Chris Carpenter P
Jonathan Singleton 1B
Ryan Gennett 2B
Ryan Jackson SS

Nick Castellanos OF

Kevin Gausman P
Dan Renken P
Michael Ojala P
Forrest Snow P
Dean Kiekhefer P
Arcenio Leon P
Cody Martin P
Alex Sogard P
Dan Barnes P

A+

A.J. Cole P
Ross Stripling P
Kyle Winkler P
Josh Osich P
Ethan Stewart P
Daniel Webb P
Colby Shreve P
Matt Lollis P
Hunter Cervenka P

Curtis Casali C

Tyler Hanover 2B

Tyler Rahmatulla 2B

Garin Cecchini 3B

Preston Tucker OF
Isaac Galloway OF
Josh Sale OF

Lance McCullers P
Mitch Brown P
Daniel Norris P
Drew Cisco P
Jharel Cotton P
Evan Rutckyj P
Brett Mooneyham P
Austin Maddox P
Madison Younginer P
Max Stassi C

Christian Walker 1B

Roderick Shoulders 1B

Creede Simpson 2B

Adrian Morales 3B

Stetson Allie 3B

Rio Ruiz 3B

Adalberto Mondesi SS

Phillip Evans SS

Carlos Correa SS

Taylor Dugas OF

Jake Cave OF

Kyle Robinson OF

Danry Vasquez OF

Extended Spring Training

Mauricio Silva P
Amir Garrett P
Casey Upperman P
Dillon Maples P
Tim Brechbuehler P
Tim Melville P
Brett Hunter P
DeAndre Smelter P
Hunter Virant P
Tomas Nido C
Charles Moorman C
Matt Rice C
Kris Bryant 1B
Jared Lakind 1B
Eric Arce 1B
Martin Peguero 2B
Josh Tobias 2B
Amaurys Minier 3B
Matthew Dean 3B
Kevin Ross 3B
Mitchel Martes 3B
Wendell Rijo SS
Frandi Delarosa SS
Luis Enrique Acosta SS
Yairo Munoz SS
Austin Wilson OF
Derek Fisher OF
Manuel Margot OF
Yoel Araujo OF
Vicmal De La Cruz OF
Hersin Martinez OF
Luis Barrera OF
Ryan Garvey OF
Khiry Cooper OF
Willie Argo OF
Danny Poma OF
Joseph Loftus OF
Iosif Bernal OF

Other

James Jones P released
Michael Palazzone P released
Daniel Marrs P released
Kyle Necke P released
Austin Urban P released
Brett Bruening P Restricted List
Kendal Volz P retired

1st round picks:
2008 Justin Smoak
2009 Kyle Gibson
2010 Josh Sale
2010 Nick Castellanos
2011 Sonny Gray
2012 Carlos Correa

GAPPER 4-26-13

2013-04-26T13:18:00.001-05:00

I'm not going to write a lot about these guys as many we are well aware of. A few interesting names show up though.

Top 15 hitters this week	Team	Level
Nick Castellanos	Tigers	AAA
Xander Bogaerts	Red Sox	AA
Arismendy Alcantara	Cubs	AA
Dalton Pompey	Blue Jays	A
Danry Vasquez	Tigers	A
Jorge Bonifacio	Royals	A+
Jose Ramirez	Indians	AA
Tyler Goeddel	Rays	A
Jose Osuna	Pirates	A+
Adalberto Mondesi	Royals	A
Jonathan Schoop	Orioles	AAA
Jonathan Galvez	Padres	AAA
Aaron Altherr	Phillies	A+
Brandon Drury	Diamondbacks	A
Roderick Shoulders	Cubs	A


Top 15 pitchers this week	Team	Level
Trevor Bauer	Indians	AAA
Jesse Biddle	Phillies	AA
Colin Rodgers	Royals	A
Taijuan Walker	Mariners	AA
Matt Andriese	Padres	AA
Eduardo Rodriguez	Orioles	A+
Michael Wacha	Cardinals	AAA
Tyler Skaggs	Diamondbacks	AAA
Aaron Sanchez	Blue Jays	A+
David Holmberg	Diamondbacks	AA
Henry Owens	Red Sox	A+
Mark Sappington	Angels	A+
Jose Alvarez	Tigers	AAA
Robbie Ray	Nationals	A+
Noah Syndergaard	Mets	A+


Overall top 25 hitters this season
Name	Team	Level	Points
Francisco Lindor	Indians	A+	168
Joc Pederson	Dodgers	AA	164.5
Byron Buxton	Twins	A	138.3
Nolan Arenado	Rockies	AAA	137.4
Jose Ramirez	Indians	AA	134.7
Hak-Ju Lee	Rays	AAA	125.9
Miguel Sano	Twins	A+	124.5
Wilmer Flores	Mets	AAA	122.7
Adalberto Mondesi	Royals	A	121.6
Chris Owings	Diamondbacks	AAA	120.7
Arismendy Alcantara	Cubs	AA	120
Andrew Toles	Rays	A	116.2
Benjamin Gamel	Yankees	A+	115
Nick Castellanos	Tigers	AAA	112
Reymond Fuentes	Padres	AA	108.8
Jurickson Profar	Rangers	AAA	106.5
Gregory Polanco	Pirates	A+	105.8
Jorge Bonifacio	Royals	A+	104
Jonathan Galvez	Padres	AAA	101.7
Maikel Franco	Phillies	A+	98.5
Ramon Cabrera	Tigers	AA	98.5
Andrew Burns	Blue Jays	A+	96.3
Rougned Odor	Rangers	A+	94.7
Hernan Perez	Tigers	AA	94.4
Kolten Wong	Cardinals	AAA	93.5


Overall top 25 pitchers this season
Name	Team	Level	Points
Jesse Biddle	Phillies	AA	202.7
Archie Bradley	Diamondbacks	A+	188.9
Taijuan Walker	Mariners	AA	183.3
Tyler Skaggs	Diamondbacks	AAA	179.9
Clayton Blackburn	Giants	A+	168.7
Jameson Taillon	Pirates	AA	167
Henry Owens	Red Sox	A+	160
Zach Lee	Dodgers	AA	157.3
Matthew Wisler	Padres	A+	155.3
Aaron Sanchez	Blue Jays	A+	148.9
Rafael Montero	Mets	AA	146.2
Alex Wood	Braves	AA	146
Michael Wacha	Cardinals	AAA	136.3
Roberto Osuna	Blue Jays	A	136.1
Shane Watson	Phillies	A	134.7
Edwin Escobar	Giants	A+	134
Robbie Ray	Nationals	A+	133
Will Smith	Royals	AAA	129
Danny Hultzen	Mariners	AAA	128.2
Tony Cingrani	Reds	AAA	126.6
Trevor Bauer	Indians	AAA	126
Eduardo Rodriguez	Orioles	A+	121.7
Shawn Morimando	Indians	A+	118.3
Josh Hader	Orioles	A	116.7
Adam Morgan	Phillies	AAA	116.2


Age to Level
Name	Team	Level
Adalberto Mondesi	Royals	A
Carlos Tocci	Phillies	A
Jurickson Profar	Rangers	AAA
Francisco Lindor	Indians	A+
Jose Ramirez	Indians	AA
Wilmer Flores	Mets	AAA
Chris Owings	Diamondbacks	AAA
Nick Castellanos	Tigers	AAA
Rougned Odor	Rangers	A+
Oscar Taveras	Cardinals	AAA
Xander Bogaerts	Red Sox	AA
Carlos Sanchez	White Sox	AAA
Joey Gallo	Rangers	A
Carlos Correa	Astros	A
Hanser Alberto	Rangers	AA


Age to Level
Name	Team	Level
Taijuan Walker	Mariners	AA
Tyler Skaggs	Diamondbacks	AAA
Roberto Osuna	Blue Jays	A
Jesse Biddle	Phillies	AA
Jameson Taillon	Pirates	AA
David Holmberg	Diamondbacks	AA
Archie Bradley	Diamondbacks	A+
Zach Lee	Dodgers	AA
Michael Wacha	Cardinals	AAA
Clayton Blackburn	Giants	A+
Shane Watson	Phillies	A
Henry Owens	Red Sox	A+
Zachary Bird	Dodgers	A
Aaron Sanchez	Blue Jays	A+
Matthew Wisler	Padres	A+
The sexy numbers

Power Hitters
Name	Team	Level
Scott Van Slyke	Dodgers	AAA
Joey Terdoslavich	Braves	AAA
Miguel Sano	Twins	A+
Chris Snyder	Angels	AAA
Joc Pederson	Dodgers	AA
Stephen Vogt	Athletics	AAA
Caleb Joseph	Orioles	AA
George Springer	Astros	AA
Joey Gallo	Rangers	A
Robert Hefflinger	Braves	A+
Ernesto Mejia	Braves	AAA
Nolan Arenado	Rockies	AAA
Max Muncy	Athletics	A+
Stetson Allie	Pirates	A
Josh Bell	Pirates	A


Strikeout Pitchers
Name	Team	Level
Archie Bradley	Diamondbacks	A+
Jose De Paula	Yankees	A
Andy Oliver	Pirates	AAA
Will Smith	Royals	AAA
Yusmeiro Petit	Giants	AAA
Jesse Biddle	Phillies	AA
Jake Odorizzi	Rays	AAA
Edwin Escobar	Giants	A+
Kyle Zimmer	Royals	A+
Mark Sappington	Angels	A+
Andrew Barbosa	Diamondbacks	A+
Justin Fitzgerald	Giants	AA
Brandon Workman	Red Sox	AA
Rafael Montero	Mets	AA
Robert Stephenson	Reds	A
Red Flag potential

Highest K Rate
Name	Team	Level
Courtney Hawkins	White Sox	A+
Harold Riggins	Rockies	A+
Lewis Brinson	Rangers	A
Nick Ramirez	Brewers	A+
Evan Marzilli	Diamondbacks	A+
Denny Almonte	Mariners	AAA
Melky Mesa	Yankees	AAA
Mike Olt	Rangers	AAA
Xavier Avery	Orioles	AA
Trevor Story	Rockies	A+
Joey Gallo	Rangers	A
David Chester	Red Sox	A
Alex Liddi	Mariners	AAA
Justin Bloxom	Nationals	AA
Nomar Mazara	Rangers	A


Most Hittable..Poor Jason Adam...not a list you want to be on.
Name	Team	Level
Justin Germano	Blue Jays	AAA
Marcus Walden	Blue Jays	AA
Kyle Kaminska	Red Sox	AA
Seth Maness	Cardinals	AAA
Andrew Werner	Athletics	AAA
Chris Heston	Giants	AAA
Shawn Hill	Tigers	AAA
Bryan Blough	White Sox	A+
Jeremy Bonderman	Mariners	AAA
Andrew Carraway	Mariners	AAA
Jason Adam	Royals	AA
Ramon Del Orbe	Marlins	A
Tim Stauffer	Padres	AAA
Yusmeiro Petit	Giants	AAA
Zach Stewart	White Sox	AAA

The Development of GAPPER: Garrioch's Analytical Prospect Point Ranking

2013-04-19T07:00:00.000-05:00

The amount of value currently being placed on unproven minor league talent calls for the identification of key attributes that lead to a player reaching the major leagues. This is a commodity that should be heavily invested in. Originally, I did research on the MLB Draft, analyzing college, high school and junior college picks in each round to see what percentage of each made it to the majors. I added the additional variable of position but the results were too variable and not personal enough.

The next step was analyzing performance. I did not use advanced metrics, only the standard counting stats for this process because of the variation in any subjective statistics and scouting at the minor league level. I analyzed many years of data to find the correlation between minor league performance and reaching the major leagues.

I created a weighted point system to represent these numbers for an overall score to track in-season progress but the core of my system comes from full season analysis. Taking players and breaking them into groups of other players with similar results is the first step. The second step is just breaking the groups down one more step based on age, level and results. The third step is more granular and unique to the player. In the end, each player fits into three groups of varying sizes from very unique to very broad depending on how they performed and player comparisons available.

Once these groups were formed, I used the MLB data of the players that made it to the majors and assigned it to each group. This is a simple prediction of how similar minor leaguers performed in the majors and the chance that they even make it. These data sets are applied to each player and regressed based on the success of similar players.

The projections I have created are safe projections, regressed more toward the mean and it isn't rare for the best players to out produce them when I have studied past results. To counteract this deficiency, I created ceiling and floor projections as well, pointing out the potential for a player who could be a star and those that have red flags. Ideally, I need three years of data to run this projection but it's not necessary. It can be done with as little as 50 plate appearances.

This system has a lot to be done to it before it is finished but the structure is sound. I have concentrated on hitters but have a strong system for pitchers started as well it's just not as advanced. Because all of the talent in MLB comes from the minor leagues and one person can't see everyone, this could be a great tool to integrate with a scouting department and developmental staff to identify impact talent. For now, it will be used by anyone reading my blog or Minor League Ball.

Comparing MLB and International Slots

2013-04-17T07:00:00.000-05:00

This years' international signing period will have slots. Sorting them with the MLB Draft, we can see where these players would slot in the MLB Draft, according to MLB. The Astros would get 1st (between 7th and 8th overall), 4th, 5th and 6th round picks while the Nationals would get 4th, 5th, 6th and 10th round picks.

First Slot:
6- 1st Round
1- Supplemental 1st Round
7- 2nd Round
1- Supplemental 2nd Round
13- 3rd Round
2- 4th Round

Second Slot:
20- 4th Round
10- 5th Round

Third Slot:
13- 5th Round
17- 6th Round

Fourth Slot:
4- 6th Round
15- 7th Round
4- 8th Round
5- 9th Round
2- 10th Round

OOTP 14 Review

2013-04-11T20:58:00.003-05:00

Last summer, I bought a new Mac and didn’t have any games on it. I was browsing through the app store and saw OOTP. I had never played OOTP before. I had purchased iOOTP for two years and loved it. I played it often on my phone at night or during breaks during the day. It was quick and easily accessible to pretend to be a GM and build up a dynasty. The depth of the game was as good or better than any other baseball game on the market. When I saw the game in the app store, I couldn’t pass on it. If the portable version was good, this has to be great…and so it began.

I played it a lot. Sometimes a couple hours would pass and I wouldn’t even realize it. That is what a game should do, in my opinion. It isn’t MLB The Show. It doesn’t look like a real baseball game or even try to attempt that. While I love the aesthetics of that polished console game, it fails on so many levels that I find many part of the game unplayable. Yes, I am a baseball snob and I am proud of that. What OOTP 14 does is replicate how baseball works better than any other game I have ever seen. OOTP 13 was a great game but lacked in amateur player acquisition. I worked on custom rosters but I got sidetracked. So I waited for the new version, one in which I hoped would have the updates I wanted.

For the couple months, I’ve been waiting for a new version to come out and I was excited when I saw the pre-release information that said it improved the parts of the game I wanted improved. Yes! I was lucky enough to get a version of the game before the pre-order release date so I could play it for a few days before I wrote my review.

This year, they used PECOTA for player ratings so the accuracy is as good as it gets. The minor leagues have all your favorite prospects, and the ones who are just organizational guys. You need them too in this game. You don’t want the AA team to suck. It will hurt the other guys’ morale. There are real players for the 2013 draft in the game…and the ratings are pretty accurate. I don’t know who did the labor on this but it is an impressive feat. Congrats to the development team for making a picky guy like me happy. Thanks as well.

At this point, I’m only one season in. I started a game as the GM of the Minnesota Twins. After playing the first season, the Owner thought we should play .500 ball (delusional) so I gave up on that by the 40^th game or so and started selling off. I was pleased to find that I had to give up quality to get quality. By moving any veteran that I could get something for, I ended up getting a few decent prospects. The game is very realistic. You can't trade scrubs for good prospects, though once a team is in win now mode, it is easier to pry them away. IF you want an easier go of it, you can tweak settings or even play in commissioner mode. You want to punish the Marlins? Want to make that contract for A-Rod a couple years longer to hurt the Yankees? You can do it in this game.

Back to my season. I checked the waiver wire often and picked up Jimmy Rollins and Roy Oswalt. I was hoping to flip them. Well that didn’t happen. So, J-Roll is the Twins 2014 short stop and Oswalt will be in the rotation…see being a GM isn’t that easy.

I went through the draft. Some of it was really accurate, some of it wasn’t but it’s hard to replicate something so unpredictable. Mark Appel lasted to the second round. The great part is that most of the ratings are representative of the real player. That is crazy. Eugene Vazquez wanted $2.6 million to sign, so did Justin Williams. They are good players but damn, that’s crazy. The thing is, they might actually have expectations like that. They are both talented, so in a simulation, this is believable. In the end, I paid them. Save at the big league level, spend on the draft. It was fun. The list of available players is huge and I recognized the vast majority of the names. I’m not sure if some were computer generated or not, the big names are there, so you can actually draft Jonathan Gray or Clint Frazier. So much fun.

I got skunked in the international free agency though. The top players kept running up the amount they wanted. By the time I realized I wasn’t landing a big fish, the little ones were gone. I only got a couple low level guys. That hurt.

Well, I will see how I can improve next year. I’ll try to move Rollins, wait for my youth to develop and hope Sano doesn’t miss almost an entire season with a leg injury. Yes, the game is very realistic and can crush dreams just like the real game.

The game is phenomenal. The depth is amazing. There are reports on everything you could want. It is like having a full staff reporting to you. If I were a real GM, I would want many of the things in this game available to me.

I can’t recommend this game more than I do. It is the best baseball game on the market. Hands down. Go buy it right now. You will be happy you did. Check out their facebook page for information, screenshots and to read what others are saying. I'm not the only one loves it. Don't miss out.

Top Performers Breakdown 4-10-13

2013-04-11T06:53:00.000-05:00

Breaking down the performances by how they did it. Zunino is the biggest power guy to this point. Cory Spangenberg is ahead of Billy Hamilton in speed!
Adalberto Mondesi and Roberto Osuna get the biggest boost due to age. Yusmeiro Petit made a list! He's baaacck..haha.

Power

Name	Team
Mike Zunino	Mariners	AAA)
Zach Walters	Nationals	AAA)
Mike Hessman	Reds	AAA)
Jamie Romak	Cardinals	AAA)
Jason Martinson	Nationals	A+)
Adam Duvall	Giants	AA)
Devin Harris	Giants	A+)
Brandon Guyer	Rays	AAA)
Ernesto Mejia	Braves	AAA)
Robert Hefflinger	Braves	A+)

Speed

Name	Team
Cory Spangenberg	Padres	A+)
Billy Hamilton	Reds	AAA)
Tommy Coyle	Rays	A)
Alex Castellanos	Dodgers	AAA)
Francisco Lindor	Indians	A+)
Micah Johnson	White Sox	A)
Kyle Johnson	Angels	A)
Zeke Devoss	Cubs	A+)
Hak-Ju Lee	Rays	AAA)
Rico Noel	Padres	AA)

Age Influenced

Name	Team
Adalberto Mondesi	Royals	A)
Carlos Tocci	Phillies	A)
Jurickson Profar	Rangers	AAA)
Gus Schlosser	Braves	AA)
Nick Additon	Cardinals	AAA)
Chris Withrow	Dodgers	AAA)
Danny Rosenbaum	Nationals	AAA)
Curtis Partch	Reds	AA)
Dan Houston	Rockies	AA)
Ryan Brasier	Angels	AAA)

Hitting

Name	Team
Cesar Hernandez	Phillies	AAA)
Jeff Kobernus	Nationals	AAA)
Jayce Boyd	Mets	A)
Scott Van Slyke	Dodgers	AAA)
Roderick Shoulders	Cubs	A)
Eric Thames	Mariners	AAA)
Josh Satin	Mets	AAA)
Eury Perez	Nationals	AAA)
Ramon Cabrera	Tigers	AA)
Billy Burns	Nationals	A+)

Top Strikeout Pitchers

Name	Team	level
Tony Cingrani	Reds	AAA)
Rafael Montero	Mets	AA)
Andrew Chafin	Diamondbacks	A+)
Robert Stephenson	Reds	A)
Eddie Butler	Rockies	A)
Danny Hultzen	Mariners	AAA)
Andrew Granier	Athletics	A+)
Yusmeiro Petit	Giants	AAA)
Tanner Robles	Reds	A+)
Vidal Nuno	Yankees	AAA)

Most Age Influenced

Name	Team
Roberto Osuna	Blue Jays
Tyler Skaggs	Diamondbacks
Taijuan Walker	Mariners
Jordan Lyles	Astros
Lance Mccullers	Astros
Zachary Bird	Dodgers
Shane Watson	Phillies
Josh Hader	Orioles
Salvatore Romano	Reds
Jesse Biddle	Phillies

Top Prospect Results 4-10-13

2013-04-10T07:02:00.000-05:00

I plan on doing this once a week, as long as there is interest(pageviews). My plan for now is to run them Thursday night and post them Friday. It will help keep a handle on players who are having good seasons and good weeks. These are the top 20 pitchers and hitters at each level so far this season.
The formula is what I have based my entire projection system on, so if these seem like good lists based on stats and potential, you will like my other work, or vice versa. The players on these lists should be good prospects, not just old players having good seasons. Some will sneak in early (Jim Negrych) but it should get better as the season progresses.

AAA Hitters

Name	Team
Mike Zunino	Mariners
Billy Hamilton	Reds
Cesar Hernandez	Phillies
Jurickson Profar	Rangers
Oswaldo Arcia	Twins
Matt Davidson	Diamondbacks
Kolten Wong	Cardinals
Jeff Kobernus	Nationals
Carlos Sanchez	White Sox
Nolan Arenado	Rockies
Alex Castellanos	Dodgers
Hak-Ju Lee	Rays
Eury Perez	Nationals
Scott Van Slyke	Dodgers
Alex Liddi	Mariners
Wilmer Flores	Mets
Scooter Gennett	Brewers
Nick Buss	Dodgers
Travis D'Arnaud	Mets
Jim Negrych	Blue Jays

AA Hitters

Name	Team
Michael Almanzar	Red Sox
Reymond Fuentes	Padres
Jose Ramirez	Indians
Enrique Hernandez	Astros
Hernan Perez	Tigers
Adam Duvall	Giants
Yasiel Puig	Dodgers
Joc Pederson	Dodgers
Julio Morban	Mariners
Everett Williams	Padres
Tyler Henson	Phillies
Ramon Cabrera	Tigers
Domingo Santana	Astros
Steve Souza	Nationals
Randal Grichuk	Angels
Odubel Herrera	Rangers
Daniel Ortiz	Twins
Tucker Barnhart	Reds
John Tolisano	Blue Jays
Jefry Marte	Athletics

High A Hitters

Name	Team
Francisco Lindor	Indians
Sean Coyle	Red Sox
Cory Spangenberg	Padres
Benjamin Gamel	Yankees
Nolan Fontana	Astros
Zeke Devoss	Cubs
Nick Delmonico	Orioles
Jorge Bonifacio	Royals
Miguel Sano	Twins
Alex Yarbrough	Angels
Travis Jankowski	Padres
Jorge Soler	Cubs
Max Muncy	Athletics
Rougned Odor	Rangers
Elmer Reyes	Braves
Jason Martinson	Nationals
Daniel Mateo	Royals
Stephen Piscotty	Cardinals
Raywilly Gomez	Diamondbacks
Gregory Polanco	Pirates

Low A Hitters

Name	Team
Byron Buxton	Twins
Tommy Coyle	Rays
Carlos Correa	Astros
Carlos Tocci	Phillies
Jayce Boyd	Mets
Mallex Smith	Padres
Kale Kiser	White Sox
Socrates Brito	Diamondbacks
Teoscar Hernandez	Astros
Brent Peterson	Reds
Brandon Nimmo	Mets
Robert Refsnyder	Yankees
Orlando Arcia	Brewers
Mitchell Walding	Phillies
Joey Gallo	Rangers
JaDamion Williams	Twins
Andrew Toles	Rays
Cameron Gallagher	Royals
Guillermo Pimentel	Mariners
Christian Lopes	Blue Jays

New

AAA Pitchers

Name	Team
Tony Cingrani	Reds
Danny Hultzen	Mariners
Tyler Skaggs	Diamondbacks
Jordan Lyles	Astros
Tyler Thornburg	Brewers
Jake Odorizzi	Rays
Mark Montgomery	Yankees
Will Smith	Royals
Sonny Gray	Athletics
Zack Wheeler	Mets
Allen Webster	Red Sox
Brad Hand	Marlins
Andy Oliver	Pirates
Drew Pomeranz	Rockies
Brian Moran	Mariners
Seth Maness	Cardinals
Lisalverto Bonilla	Rangers
Gerrit Cole	Pirates
Jarred Cosart	Astros
Vidal Nuno	Yankees

AA Pitchers

Name	Team
Rafael Montero	Mets
Nick Tropeano	Astros
Jesse Biddle	Phillies
Donn Roach	Padres
David Holmberg	Diamondbacks
Aaron Northcraft	Braves
Alex Wood	Braves
Jameson Taillon	Pirates
Jake Thompson	Rays
Brian Flynn	Marlins
Adam Conley	Marlins
Noel Arguelles	Royals
Kyle Lobstein	Tigers
Yordano Ventura	Royals
Eric Jokisch	Cubs
Boone Whiting	Cardinals
Zach Lee	Dodgers
Daniel Renken	Reds
Brooks Pounders	Royals
Stolmy Pimentel	Pirates

High A Pitchers

Name	Team
Clayton Blackburn	Giants
Mark Sappington	Angels
Victor Payano	Rangers
Archie Bradley	Diamondbacks
Antonio Cruz	Royals
Henry Owens	Red Sox
Matthew Wisler	Padres
Aaron Sanchez	Blue Jays
Jose Urena	Marlins
Scott Allen	Yankees
Adalberto Mejia	Giants
Ryan Carpenter	Rays
Edwin Escobar	Giants
Noah Syndergaard	Mets
Andrew Chafin	Diamondbacks
D.J. Baxendale	Twins
Robbie Ray	Nationals
Domingo Tapia	Mets
Kyle Smith	Royals
Zachary Jones	Twins

Low A Pitchers

Name	Team
Robert Stephenson	Reds
Roberto Osuna	Blue Jays
Josh Hader	Orioles
Lance Mccullers	Astros
Salvatore Romano	Reds
Shane Watson	Phillies
Vincent Velasquez	Astros
Tyler Glasnow	Pirates
Eddie Butler	Rockies
Tyler Pike	Mariners
Gabriel Ynoa	Mets
Mariano Llorens	Cardinals
Alejandro Chacin	Reds
Josh Warner	Phillies
Joe Ross	Padres
Raul Alcantara	Athletics
Tyler Duffey	Twins
Jason Garcia	Red Sox
Alexander Claudio	Rangers
Leonard Lorenzo	Brewers

2013 MLB Draft Order

2013-03-25T19:01:00.000-05:00

First Round
1	Houston Astros
2	Chicago Cubs
3	Colorado Rockies
4	Minnesota Twins
5	Cleveland Indians
6	Miami Marlins
7	Boston Red Sox
8	Kansas City Royals
9	Pittsburgh Pirates (Appel)
10	Toronto Blue Jays
11	New York Mets
12	Seattle Mariners
13	San Diego Padres
14	Pittsburgh Pirates
15	Arizona Diamondbacks
16	Philadelphia Phillies
17	Chicago White Sox
18	Los Angeles Dodgers
19	St. Louis Cardinals
20	Detroit Tigers
21	Tampa Bay Rays
22	Baltimore Orioles
23	Texas Rangers
24	Oakland Athletics
25	San Francisco Giants
26	New York Yankees
27	Cincinnati Reds
Comp Round A
28	St. Louis Cardinals (Lohse)
29	Tampa Bay Rays (Upton)
30	Texas Rangers(Hamilton)
31	Atlanta Braves(Bourn)
32	New York Yankees(Swisher)
33	New York Yankees(Soriano)
Competitive Balance Round A
34	Kansas City Royals
35	Miami Marlins (from the Pirates)
36	Arizona Diamondbacks
37	Baltimore Orioles
38	Cincinnati Reds
39	Detroit Tigers (from the Marlins)
Second Round
40	Houston Astros
41	Chicago Cubs
42	Colorado Rockies
43	Minnesota Twins
44	Miami Marlins
45	Boston Red Sox
46	Kansas City Royals
47	Toronto Blue Jays
48	New York Mets
49	Seattle Mariners
50	San Diego Padres
51	Pittsburgh Pirates
52	Arizona Diamondbacks
53	Philadelphia Phillies
54	Milwaukee Brewers
55	Chicago White Sox
56	Los Angeles Dodgers
57	St. Louis Cardinals
58	Detroit Tigers
59	Los Angeles Angels
60	Tampa Bay Rays
61	Baltimore Orioles
62	Texas Rangers
63	Oakland Athletics
64	San Francisco Giants
65	Atlanta Braves
66	New York Yankees
67	Cincinnati Reds
68	Washington Nationals
Competitive Balance Round B
69	San Diego Padres
70	Colorado Rockies
71	Oakland A's
72	Milwaukee Brewers
73	Miami Marlins (from the Tigers)
Round 3
74	Houston Astros
75	Chicago Cubs
76	New York Mets (T. Stankiewicz)
77	Colorado Rockies
78	Minnesota Twins
79	Cleveland Indians
80	Miami Marlins
81	Boston Red Sox
82	Kansas City Royals
83	Toronto Blue Jays
84	New York Mets
85	Seattle Mariners
86	San Diego Padres
87	Pittsburgh Pirates
88	Arizona Diamondbacks
89	Philadelphia Phillies
90	Milwaukee Brewers
91	Chicago White Sox
92	Los Angeles Dodgers
93	St. Louis Cardinals
94	Detroit Tigers
95	Philladelphia Phillies (A. Rash - unsigned)
96	Los Angeles Angels
97	Tampa Bay Rays
98	Baltimore Orioles
99	Texas Rangers
100	Oakland Athletics
101	San Francisco Giants
102	Atlanta Braves
103	New York Yankees
104	Cincinnati Reds
105	Washington Nationals
Comp Round B
106	Oakland A's (K. Twomey)
Rounds 4
107	Houston Astros
108	Chicago Cubs
109	Colorado Rockies
110	Minnesota Twins
111	Cleveland Indians
112	Miami Marlins
113	Boston Red Sox
114	Kansas City Royals
115	Toronto Blue Jays
116	New York Mets
117	Seattle Mariners
118	San Diego Padres
119	Pittsburgh Pirates
120	Arizona Diamondbacks
121	Philadelphia Phillies
122	Milwaukee Brewers
123	Chicago White Sox
124	Los Angeles Dodgers
125	St. Louis Cardinals
126	Detroit Tigers
127	Los Angeles Angels
128	Tampa Bay Rays
129	Baltimore Orioles
130	Texas Rangers
131	Oakland Athletics
132	San Francisco Giants
133	Atlanta Braves
134	New York Yankees
135	Cincinnati Reds
136	Washington Nationals
Round 5
137	Houston Astros
138	Chicago Cubs
139	Colorado Rockies
140	Minnesota Twins
141	Cleveland Indians
142	Miami Marlins
143	Boston Red Sox
144	Kansas City Royals
145	Toronto Blue Jays
146	New York Mets
147	Seattle Mariners
148	San Diego Padres
149	Pittsburgh Pirates
150	Arizona Diamondbacks
151	Philadelphia Phillies
152	Milwaukee Brewers
153	Chicago White Sox
154	Los Angeles Dodgers
155	St. Louis Cardinals
156	Detroit Tigers
157	Los Angeles Angels
158	Tampa Bay Rays
159	Baltimore Orioles
160	Texas Rangers
161	Oakland Athletics
162	San Francisco Giants
163	Atlanta Braves
164	New York Yankees
165	Cincinnati Reds
166	Washington Nationals

2013 MLB Draft: Sean Manaea vs Tom Windle at Metrodome

2013-03-18T13:05:00.004-05:00

Friday night was a good night to watch baseball in Minnesota. That is a nearly unheard of statement at any time during the season, let alone March 15th.
Taking the mound for Minnesota was Tom Windle, a lefty who is a late 1st round to second round type of arm. Indiana State had Sean Manaea, a lefty who is in the discussion for the first overall pick. It was exciting for me to get away from my couch scouting and see a live game. It was 4.5 hours worth of driving, and honestly, a little underwhelming, but still a good time.
I got there not too much before the game started. There were a lot of scouts in attendance. I'm not in the loop enough to know who anyone is working for other than an Orioles scout, Cardinals scout and the Twins scouting director.
I was hoping to see the dominant stuff that I saw from Manaea at the Cape Cod League All Star Game but it wasn't there. He was 92-94 mostly with the fastball. He hit 95 on one pitch on a gun in front of me. He easily dominated Gopher hitters and didn't allow a hard hit ball until the middle innings and it was still an easy fly out.
I really thought he was done after the 7th inning but no one was warming up. His velocity was dropping and he was breathing like he was tiring. He did finish the game but dropped to the 88-93 range. That is impressive and shows he can sustain velocity that deep into a game.
Manaea's slider was mostly 78-82 and was an above average offering and flashed 3 or 4 plus pitches but it was not the nasty pitch he had on the Cape. He seemed out of sync. It looked good in the 4th inning but other than that, it was a guessing game.
His change was in the same velocity range but wasn't anything more then a show me pitch. It didn't move much and it needs to improve to be an average pitch in pro ball.
Physically, he was leaner then I thought and he takes a huge stride when he throws. He has very good deception in his delivery, so the 92-94 MPH velocity played up and when he was 97, I could see why he would nearly be untouchable. His low ¾ delivery adds to that.
On a more granular scale, his delivery is long and slow. Good base runners will take advantage of that. He has the silly Paco Rodriguez leg lift as he comes to the set. That drives me nuts but isn't a big deal in reality. His pickoff move is horrible. It's a balk move. He should have been called for at least one balk if not more. He looks like he decides mid delivery if he's going to throw to first or home.
Statistically, he struck out 9, walked one, gave up six hits, hit one batter and generally pounded the strike zone. He should with that stuff against this type of opposition.
Overall, he is more raw then I expected. His delivery isn't easy. He seems a bit awkward in his delivery at times. The arm is there and the slider shows a ton of potential. The change needs a lot of work. The smaller stuff will come with work and time. I see a guy with a big arm and enough stamina to be a starter. I see a guy with the stuff to be a reliever, though. The overall package, right now, isn't good enough to be a top 5 pick. If you want to project and have confidence you can fix the smaller things, he is. If you are looking for the college arm that just needs to face pro hitters, acclimate and move up and take a rotation spot in a year or so, this isn't the guy.
Tom Windle was a completely different pitcher. His velocity was average to above for a lefty at 88-92. He controlled it well and while he allowed a lot of contact, no one made much solid contact off of him. Yes, Twins fans, he pitched to contact. He just doesn't have that extra gear that Manaea has.
Windle has a slider that is a 78-82 MPH offering. It is an average pitch that he commanded well. His change is very good. It was in the 80-84 range but was thrown with the same arm speed. It kept hitters very off balance.
He didn't blow it by hitters like Manaea did. Hitters were able to make contact but most of the time they were weak grounders and rarely amounted to much. For this reason, he is more of a back of the rotation type, not a front line guy like Manaea projects to be. I liked the fact he worked inside and made hitters uneasy. He did hit two batters but not due to lack of control but more that the hitters were sitting on the dish and he wasn't going to not work his game. I appreciated that.
Physically, he is strongly built and could use his lower half more. His stride is short and he throws more over the top. He uses his shoulder and elbow a lot and due to that and he could have a couple more ticks in him if a team would want to tinker. I'm not a fan of that idea, just saying it's potentially an option.
I like Windle. He would be a solid pick in the late 1st round or the supplemental round. I think with his three big league average pitches, he could help any team that picks him. The problem is separating him from the wealth of college arms that could bunch up in the late 1st round.

Sorry, the video isn't great. I'm no photographer.

Manaea Inning (via Matt Garrioch)

Sean Manaea Pitching (via Matt Garrioch)

Sean Manaea pitching (via Matt Garrioch)

Tom Windle Pitching (via Matt Garrioch)

Windle Inning (via Matt Garrioch)

Top Prospect Projection Breakdown

2013-03-15T06:48:00.000-05:00

Top ISO Power guys

Name	POS	ORG	high level
Joey Gallo	3B	TEX	A-
Daniel Vogelbach	1B	CHC	A-
Miguel Sano	3B	MIN	A
Anthony Rizzo	1B	CHC	MLB
Lewis Brinson	CF	TEX	Rookie
Brandon Miller	RF	WAN	A-
Mike Zunino	C	SEA	AA
Corey Dickerson	LF	COL	AA
Evan Gattis	LF-C	ATL	AA
Michael Perez	C	ARI	Rookie
Alex Glenn	RF-LF	ARI	Rookie
Matt Adams	1B	STL	MLB
C.J. Cron	1B	LAA	A+
William Swanner	C	COL	A
Telvin Nash	LF	HOU	A+
Mac Williamson	RF	SF	A-
Domingo Santana	RF	HOU	A+
Javier Baez	SS	CHC	A+
Oscar Taveras	CF	STL	AA
Yazy Arbelo	1B	ARI	AA

Top Selling out for power (highest XBH/H rate)

Name	POS	ORG	high level
Anthony Rendon	3B	WAN	AA
Joey Gallo	3B	TEX	A-
Lewis Brinson	CF	TEX	Rookie
Yazy Arbelo	1B	ARI	AA
Miguel Sano	3B	MIN	A
Daniel Vogelbach	1B	CHC	A-
Brandon Miller	RF	WAN	A-
Michael Perez	C	ARI	Rookie
Telvin Nash	LF	HOU	A+
Trayce Thompson	CF	CHW	AAA
Corey Dickerson	LF	COL	AA
Anthony Rizzo	1B	CHC	MLB
Joe Benson	CF	MIN	MLB
Brett Eibner	CF	KC	A+
Alex Glenn	RF-LF	ARI	Rookie
Patrick Leonard	3B	KC	Rookie
Evan Gattis	LF-C	ATL	AA
Dilson Herrera	2B	PIT	A-
Stryker Trahan	C	ARI	Rookie
Kent Matthes	RF	COL	AA

Best Contact Rate

Name	POS	ORG	high level	ORG
Aderlin Mejia	SS-3B	MIN	A+	MIN
Alex Yarbrough	2B	LAA	AA	LAA
Ben Orloff	SS	HOU	AA	HOU
J.B. Shuck	LF-RF	HOU	MLB	HOU
Andrelton Simmons	SS	ATL	MLB	ATL
Jose Ramirez	2B	MIN	Rookie	CLE
Hanser Alberto	SS	TEX	A+	TEX
Alan Sharkey	1B	MIL	Rookie	MIL
Joe Panik	SS	SF	A+	SF
Jose Peraza	SS	ATL	Rookie	ATL
Rossmel Perez	C	ARI	AA	ARI
Tyler Heineman	C	HOU	A-	HOU
Alexia Amarista	2B-3B	LAA	MLB	LAA
Wilfredo Tovar	SS	NYM	AA	NYM
Ramon Cabrera	C	PIT	AAA	PIT
Brian Blasik	2B	HOU	Rookie	HOU
Stephen Piscotty	3B	STL	A	STL
A.J. Pollock	CF	ARI	MLB	ARI
Ramon Torres	SS	KC	Rookie	KC
Albert Almora	CF	CHC	A-	CHC

Highest K Rate

Name	POS	ORG	high level
Bryan De La Rosa	C	ATL	Rookie
Wagner Mateo	1B	ARI	A+
Telvin Nash	LF	HOU	A+
Blake Brown	CF-RF	ATL	Rookie
Daurys Mercedes	CF	CHW	Rookie
Ty Linton	LF	ARI	Rookie
Max White	CF-LF	COL	Rookie
Jared Mitchell	CF	CHW	AAA
Lewis Brinson	CF	TEX	Rookie
Kyle Greene	1B	ARI	AAA
Joey Gallo	3B	TEX	A-
Adam Milligan	LF	ATL	AA
Damion Smith	LF	ARI	Rookie
William Swanner	C	COL	A
Steven Moya	RF	DET	A
Harold Riggins	1B	COL	A
Bubba Starling	CF	KC	Rookie
Brenden Webb	RF	BAL	A+
Brett Eibner	CF	KC	A+

Highest BB Rate

Name	POS	ORG	high level
Nolan Fontana	SS	HOU	A
Damion Smith	LF	ARI	Rookie
Brian Billigen	LF-CF	ARI	A
Jaff Decker	RF	SD	AA
Clint Coulter	C	MIL	Rookie
Jesmuel Valentin	SS	LAD	Rookie
Brenden Webb	RF	BAL	A+
Brett Eibner	CF	KC	A+
Stryker Trahan	C	ARI	Rookie
Mike O'Neill	LF	STL	AA
Jabari Blash	RF	SEA	A
Jackie Bradley	CF	BOS	AA
Joey Gallo	3B	TEX	A-
Brandon Nimmo	CF	NYM	A-
Marc Wik	LF	HOU	Rookie
Aaron Hicks	CF	MIN	AA
Drew Robinson	3B	TEX	A
Jace Peterson	SS	SD	A
Jeremy Rathjen	CF	LAD	Rookie

Best Speed

Name	POS	ORG	high level
Billy Hamilton	SS	CIN	AA
Neiko Johnson	CF-2B	HOU	A-
Andrew Velazquez	2B	ARI	Rookie
Jace Peterson	SS	SD	A
Billy Burns	CF-LF	WAN	A
Delino Deshields	2B	HOU	A+
Ruben Sosa	2B-LF	HOU	A
Eury Perez	CF	WAN	MLB
Keenyn Walker	CF	CHW	A+
Jose Peraza	SS	ATL	Rookie
Deven Marrero	SS	BOS	A-
Jeff Kobernus	2B	WAN	AA
Roman Quinn	SS	PHI	A-
Yasel Puig	RF	LAD	A+
Connor Lien	RF-CF	ATL	Rookie
Grant Hogue	LF	HOU	A+
Sean Jamieson	SS	OAK	A
Ryan Brett	2B	TB	A
Ender Inciarte	CF	ARI	A+
C.J. McElroy	CF	STL	Rookie

Most Likely MLB Players

Name	POS	ORG	high level
Matt Adams	1B	STL	MLB
Anthony Rizzo	1B	CHC	MLB
Fernando Martinez	LF-RF	HOU	MLB
Leonys Martin	CF	TEX	MLB
Christian Yelich	CF	MIA	A+
Adrian Cardenas	2B	CHC	MLB
Javier Baez	SS	CHC	A+
Mike Zunino	C	SEA	AA
Oswaldo Arcia	RF	MIN	AA
A.J. Pollock	CF	ARI	MLB
Adam Eaton	CF	ARI	MLB
Matt Dominguez	3B	MIA	MLB
Jorge Alfaro	C-1B	TEX	A
Oscar Taveras	CF	STL	AA
Tim Beckham	SS-2B	TB	AAA
Corban Joseph	2B	NYY	AAA
Nolan Arenado	3B	COL	AA
Matthew Davidson	3B	ARI	AA
Jonathan Singleton	1B	HOU	AA
Alexia Amarista	2B-3B	LAA	MLB

Youngest at MLB Debut

Name	POS	ORG	high level
Adalberto Mondesi	SS	KC	Rookie
Jurickson Profar	SS	TEX	MLB
Anthony Santander	LF	CLE	Rookie
Javier Baez	SS	CHC	A+
Xander Bogaerts	SS	BOS	AA
Christian Yelich	CF	MIA	A+
Dilson Herrera	2B	PIT	A-
Stryker Trahan	C	ARI	Rookie
Lewis Brinson	CF	TEX	Rookie
Oscar Taveras	CF	STL	AA
Jorge Alfaro	C-1B	TEX	A
Danry Vasquez	LF	DET	A
Gary Sanchez	C	NYY	A+
Daniel Vogelbach	1B	CHC	A-
Ronald Guzman	1B	TEX	Rookie
Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado	CF	KC	Rookie
Jonathan Schoop	2B	BAL	AA
Jeimer Candelario	3B	CHC	A-
Joc Pederson	CF	LAD	A+
Wilfredo Rodriguez	C	COL	A+

Minor League Stats to MLB Career Projections

2013-03-14T07:17:00.000-05:00

The Idea
I have been working on ranking minor leaguers with stats for 4 years now. It doesn't work. There are too many variables and even at the MLB level, developing one number to rank them all (WAR) doesn't work, so there is no way it will in the minors. What I have decided to do is look at projections instead. I don't use minor league equivalencies. I hate MLE's. I dislike the concept and the application even more. What I did was more comparison based.
I took the formulas I used in the past, applied percentages, found groups and found more exact comparisons, assigned MLB data from comps, regressed and viola. Projections for how similar minor leaguers performed in the majors and the chance that they even make it.
The percentages and groupings were released earlier this year for sale. Now I've developed this system. Right now, I only have a good system done for hitters. It's not great, it's good but could be improved upon. I've already altered it some and I regress TOO much right now. Essentially, these are "safe" projections. Players who are likely to succeed will likely produce better slash lines then what I project. From what I see, the most volatile stat is hits. The better players can outproduce their average projection by .020 to .030 points. In the full model I have created, I have a floor and average and a ceiling projection. This is only the average projections. I don't know if I will make the others available yet, because I am not confident in the results.

The Data

I chose a random year from the data I got from The Baseball Cube: 1996. No real reason for that choice other than it was long enough ago that most players would have much or all of their career played. I chose to use Low A ball for my group. Early enough in their career that it should be hard to predict but considering I was going to use 1996-98, they should have enough data to solidly predict their MLB skills.
After running these numbers, I liked the results but I wanted to see how much would change using A ball and lower levels. I used 1994-1996 in a separate calculation and the results were expected. Most players potential was decreased and a couple top players were overlooked. It's A ball. Hard to pick out all the best players. Mike Lowell was the biggest miss.

I am currently working on this projection for all the best current prospects. I currently have a list of 370 players I plan to do this for using their 2010-2012 data or as much is available.

Here is the Google Doc Link if you want to look at it or download it.

2013 MLB Draft Top Prospects

2013-03-03T11:06:00.000-06:00

Rank. Name, Pos, School, Level, Risk:

1. Ryne Stanek, RHP, Arkansas, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Potential for two plus-plus pitches
The Bad: High effort delivery.

2. Kris Bryant, 3B, San Diego, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Big power, good hit tool, good arm
The Bad: May be a 1B, so bat has to play

3. Clint Frazier, OF, Georgia HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Crazy tools, athletic
The Bad: Intensity could burn him out.

4. Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Potential for two plus-plus pitches
The Bad: May be a RP if change doesn't improve

5. Colin Moran, 3B, North Carolina, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Polished bat with power coming
The Bad: Power may be average or below at 1B

6. Dominic Smith, 1B, California HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Huge power potential
The Bad: May be a 1B. Hitting mechanics need work.

7. Austin Wilson, OF, Stanford, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Elite power potential, big arm
The Bad: Hit tool needs work, could end up at 1B

8. Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford, SR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Potential for three plus pitches
The Bad: Too hittable for his stuff.

9. Jonathan Denney, C, Oklahoma HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Very good D, huge bat potential.
The Bad: He's a prep catcher in a deep class.

10. Justin Williams, OF, Louisiana HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Powerful, athletic, young.
The Bad: flaws in swing, throwing mechnics

11. Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Upper 90's fastball and plus slider
The Bad: May be a reliever due to mechanics and lack of change up

12. Jonathan Crawford, RHP, Florida, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Upper 90's fastball and plus slider
The Bad: May be a reliever due to mechanics and lack of change up

13. Kohl Stewart, RHP, Texas HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Potential for three plus pitches
The Bad: Football

14. Joe Martarano, 3B, Idaho HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Plus arm, plus hit, plus power potential.
The Bad: Football

15. Bobby Wahl, RHP, Mississippi, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Plus fastball and breaking ball
The Bad: May be a reliever due to mechanics

16. Ian Clarkin, RHP, California HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: low 90's fastball and plus breaking ball
The Bad: Not as much projection as most HS arms.

17. Austin Meadows, OF, Georgia HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Elite tools across the board.
The Bad: The tools may not translate to baseball skills. Questionable hit tool.

18. Reese McGuire, C, Washington HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Premium defense, good potential with the bat.
The Bad: Hit tool is inconsistent

19. Chris Okey, C, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Very good bat, very athletic.
The Bad: Smaller build. Not much projectability.

20. John Paul Crawford, SS, California HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Potential with the bat, good defense.
The Bad: May have to move off SS to 2B/3B

21. Philip Ervin, OF, Samford, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Elite bat speed, above average speed
The Bad: May be a corner guy. No projection.

22. Robert Kaminsky, LHP, New Jersey HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Easy velocity, already commands it.
The Bad: Short. Minimal projection.

23. Zack Collins, 1B, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Middle of the order bat potential.
The Bad: Inconsistent at the plate. Likely a 1B

24. Dustin Driver, RHP, Washington HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Advanced for a prep arm.
The Bad: Not a lot of projection.

25. Jordan Sheffield, RHP, Tennesee HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Upper 90's fastball and plus breaking ball, good athlete.
The Bad: Inconsistent across the board.

26. Clinton Hollon, RHP, Kentucky HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Upper 90's fastball and plus breaking ball, good athlete.
The Bad: Nagging injuries have hindered him

27. Dillon Overton, LHP, Oklahoma, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Solid three pitch mix. Very good command.
The Bad: No dominant pitch.

28. Jan Hernandez, 3B, Puerto Rico HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Big potential with the bat, good defender
The Bad: Will need bat to play up at 3B

29. Trey Ball, OF, Indiana HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Nice swing, big arm, above average power potential.
The Bad: Raw. Not a lock to stay in CF. May be LHP.

30. Jeremy Martinez, C, California HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Above average hitter, potential .300+ guy, solid D
The Bad: body concerns, DH if catching ability falters

31. Oscar Mercado, SS, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Plus defender, potentially average hit tool, speed
The Bad: Bat is weak

32. Brett Morales, RHP, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Potential for two plus pitches
The Bad: Not a lot of projection. Potential reliever

33. D.J. Peterson, 3B, New Mexico, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: One of the best college bats this year, big power
The Bad: Not sure if he can stick at 3B. Bat influenced by park?

34. Aaron Judge, OF, Fresno State, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Elite power potential, good athlete
The Bad: Hasn't translated to games.

35. Kevin Davis, RHP, Alabama HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Mid 90's fastball, breaking ball flashes plus
The Bad: No change up to speak of. Minimal projection

36. Casey Shane, RHP, Texas HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Plus fastball with plus breaking ball.
The Bad: Delivery may need some work. Too many secondaries

37. Karsten Whitson, RHP, Florida, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Potential to have three plus pitches
The Bad: Shoulder surgery causes big concerns

38. Ryan Boldt, OF, Minnesota HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Potential. Plus speed, hit, defense.
The Bad: Raw tools. Needs development.

39. Marco Gonzales, LHP, Gonzaga, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Polish. Good three pitch mix. Plus Change.
The Bad: He is what he is. Minimal projection

40. Chris Rivera, SS, California HS, HS, Risk: Low
The Good: Good hitter, solid athlete, good up the middle defender
The Bad: May be a 2B. Not a lot of power.

41. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, California HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Easy velocity. Two potentially plus offerings. Projection.
The Bad: Big enough to have release point issues. Inconsistent.

42. Conrad Gregor, 1B, Vanderbilt, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Great hitter. Good glove at 1B.
The Bad: Lack of current power.

43. Dominic Ficociello, 2B, Arkansas, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Gifted hitter, athletic.
The Bad: Attitude. Runs hot and cold. Not enough power for 1B

44. Billy McKinney, OF, Texas HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Nice swing, good power potential.
The Bad: No standout tools or skills.

45. Daniel Palka, OF, Georgia Tech, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Plus power, plus arm. Good athlete.
The Bad: May need to move to 1B. Won't hit for high average

46. Cord Sandberg, OF, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Tools to rival anyone in the draft.
The Bad: Raw. Football is his biggest weakness.

47. Jonah Wesely, LHP, California HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Plus fastball and breaking ball potential.
The Bad: Unusual arm action.

48. Trey Williams, 3B, JC of the Canyons, J1, Risk: High
The Good: Average or better tools across the board.
The Bad: No elite tools. Effort concerns. Mayhave to move to OF.

49. Nick Ciuffo, C, South Carolina HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Powerful bat, good defense
The Bad: hit tool, arm accuracy

50. Ryan McMahon, 3B, California HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Easy swing. Above average power projection.
The Bad: Needs polish.

51. Andy McGuire, SS, Virginia HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Solid bat, average power, good defense
The Bad: Likely a 3B. Bat uncertain there

52. Kent Emanuel, LHP, North Carolina, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Pitchability. Plus changeup
The Bad: Current lack of velocity

53. Devin Williams, RHP, Missouri HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Mid 90's fastball with projectability
The Bad: Short track record

54. Jacoby Jones, OF, Louisiana State, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Above averge power, speed, arm
The Bad: Getting results from tools

55. Eric Jagielo, 3B, Notre Dame, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Above average power
The Bad: Defensive ability. May be a 1B

56. Garrett Williams, RHP, Louisiana HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Low 90's fastball with a solid breaking ball
The Bad: Past injury red flag (thoracic outlet syndrome surgery)

57. Travis Demeritte, 3B, Georgia HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Bat speed, power projection, arm strength
The Bad: Long swing. A lot of pre swing movement.

58. Tom Windle, LHP, Minnesota, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Three average pitches.
The Bad: No true out pitch.

59. A.J. Vanegas, RHP, Stanford, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Upper 90's velocity, plus slider potential.
The Bad: Mechanics cause control issues.

60. Chris Oakley, RHP, New Jersey HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Low 90's fastball. Plus curve potential. Projectability.
The Bad: No third pitch.

61. Chris Anderson, RHP, Jacksonville, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Low to mid 90's fastball, plus breaking ball
The Bad: Command needs work. Has been hittable

62. Ryan Eades, RHP, Louisiana State, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Plus fastball, flashed a plus curveball
The Bad: Inconsistent. Poor results for stuff.

63. Dylan Covey, RHP, San Diego, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Potential. Flashes three plus pitches.
The Bad: No consistency. Learning a new way of life (Type I Diabetes)

64. Carlos Salazar, RHP, California HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Big arm, up to 96. Developing secondaries.
The Bad: Harsh delivery. Short track record.

65. John Sternagel, 3B, Florida HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Great hitting ability. Average power, maybe more.
The Bad: Doesn't profile well at any position.

66. Matthew McPhearson, OF, Maryland HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Top of the lineup hitter. Game changing speed. Potential elite CF.
The Bad: Raw. Poor competition to compare him to.

67. Austin Kubitza, RHP, Rice, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Fastball and slider that flash plus
The Bad: Really inconsistent mechanics

68. Michael O'Neill, OF, Michigan, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Average tools across the board.
The Bad: No standout tools. Streaky.

69. Tyler Danish, RHP, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Big arm. Nice breaking ball. Bulldog attitude.
The Bad: Bulldog attitude.

70. Brian Ragira, 1B, Stanford, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Raw power, good bat. Strong arm.
The Bad: Limited to 1B. Slow runner. Needs swing work (Stanford)

71. Josh Hart, OF, Georgia HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Top of the lineup hitter, good defense
The Bad: May be a LF. Not a ton of power potential.

72. Derik Beauprez, RHP, Colorado HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Fresh arm. Low 90's fastball, plus change up.
The Bad: Short track record. May be a 1B.

73. Brian Navarreto, C, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Good power potential. Very solid behind the plate.
The Bad: Long swing.

74. Anfernee Grier, OF, Alabama HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Nice swing, plus speed, good arm
The Bad: Swing can get long. Will likely strike out a lot.

75. Michael Lorenzen, OF, Cal State Fullerton, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Tools upon tools.
The Bad: Raw for a college player. Not sure if he's a pitcher of OF.

76. Dan Child, RHP, Oregon State, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Big arm. Developing secondaries.
The Bad: Doesn't use size wel at all. No projection.

77. Colby Suggs, RHP, Arkansas, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Two above average MLB pitches now. Could help quickly.
The Bad: Not a lot of potential past what he is

78. Keegan Thompson, RHP, Alabama HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Two potential plus pitches. Average change. Athletic.
The Bad: Needs consistency.

79. Jason Hursh, RHP, Oklahoma State, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Upper 90's fastball. Potential in secondaries. Helium guy.
The Bad: Recovering from TJ Surgery.

80. Alex Balog, RHP, California HS, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Big fastball in upper 90's, plus slider. Helium guy.
The Bad: Inexperience and inconsistency

81. Teddy Stankiewicz, RHP, Seminole State, J1, Risk: High
The Good: Plus fastball and breaking ball potential.
The Bad: Change needs work. Breaking ball needs consistency.

82. Trevor Williams, RHP, Arizona State, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Low to mid 90's fastball. Nice breaking ball.
The Bad: No out pitch. Likely reliever.

83. Hunter Renfroe, OF, Mississippi State, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Huge power potential, big arm
The Bad: Inconsistent in all aspects. Position questions

84. A.J. Puk, LHP, Iowa HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Two plus pitch potential. Projection.
The Bad: Needs refinement across the board.

85. Cavan Biggio, 3B, Texas HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Plus hit tool.
The Bad: Hate the bat waggle. Not sure where he plays defensively

86. Aaron Blair, RHP, Marshall, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Plus fastball and change potential
The Bad: Breaking ball needs work.

87. Terry McClure, OF, Georgia HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Plus runner, good bat.
The Bad: Swing is long.

88. Rowdy Tellez, 1B, California HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Massive power potential
The Bad: Very long swing. Needs to watch his weight.

89. Kevin Ziomek, LHP, Vanderbilt, JR, Risk: High
The Good: Three pitch mix. Plus change
The Bad: Mechanics are bad. Likely reliever.

90. Connor Jones, RHP, Virginia HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Plus fastball. Average change and breaking ball
The Bad: Secondaries and mechnics need improvement.

91. Willie Abreu, OF, Florida HS, HS, Risk: Medium
The Good: Polished bat with power potential.
The Bad: Long swing. Likely a corner OF.

92. Scott Frazier, RHP, Pepperdine, JR, Risk: Medium
The Good: Solid fastball, developing secondaries.
The Bad: Needs to improve secondaries. Not much upside.

93. Jared King, OF, Kansas State, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Average bat, power, speed
The Bad: Corner OF, may end up at 1B. No projection

94. Sheldon Neuse, 3B, Texas HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Solid hitter, average power, good arm
The Bad: No solid defensive profile

95. Tyler Alamo, C, California HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Strong bat. Big power potential.
The Bad: Size will work against him behind the dish.

96. K.J. Woods, OF, South Carolina HS, HS, Risk: Extreme
The Good: Big power potential
The Bad: May end up at 1B. Needs work on swing.

97. Dale Carey, OF, Miami, JR, Risk: Low
The Good: Solid bat, solid CF
The Bad: may be a 4th OF'er

98. Nick Longhi, 1B, Florida HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Bat is very good. Left arm is strong.
The Bad: Heavy feet. May not have bat at 1B. May be LHP.

99. Carson Baranik, RHP, Miami Dade, J2, Risk: High
The Good: Big arm up to 95, plus breaking ball
The Bad: Off field issues. Needs to watch his weight.

100. Kramer Robertson, SS, Texas HS, HS, Risk: High
The Good: Very good defensive SS
The Bad: Bat is a work in progress

All-Prospect Lineup for 2013

2013-03-01T12:00:00.002-06:00

SS Nolan Fontana
2B Jedd Gyorko
RF Oscar Taveras
DH Khris Davis
1B Matt Adams
LF Evan Gattis
3B Stefen Romero
C Tony Sanchez
CF Gary Brown

Bench

Kole Calhoun
Tim Federowicz
Joe Panik
Brock Holt

If this team had an average pitching staff, I think it could flirt with .500.

College Baseball Weekend Notes 2-25-13

2013-02-25T10:50:00.003-06:00

Carlos Rodon looked good enough to lose 100 games this season just for the chance to draft him. He pitched 7 no-hit innings against La Salle. He K’d 14 and walked one. All I saw was a poor video feed but there is no doubt in my mind that, right now, he is the slam dunk 1^st overall pick next season. Don Olsen (@olsen_don) noted that he was 92-94 with hard tailing FB and his slider had good tilt and bite to it. Sounds like his semi-rough first start was a fluke.

Cody Poteet looked good against Baylor. The numbers weren't great. The stuff was inconsistent but he showed a very impressive breaking ball. It was an unhittable pitch at times. He is a player that could make a serious impact at UCLA over the next few years and could be a top pick in the 2015 draft.

Trea Turner was also his impressive self. He is the most exciting player in NCAA baseball right now. He can hit, run and plays solid defense. He is fun to watch.

I watched more of was Florida Gulf Coast at Florida. Taylor Gushue is a unique player. He’s a very good hitter and is well beyond his years as a sophomore who is very young for his class because he left high school early to attend Florida. He has taken over the catching since Mike Zunino has moved on to pro ball. He could be an impact bat over the next two years. He hurt his foot at the end of one game I watched. Not sure where he is at there if it was minor or will cause him to miss time. Either way, he’s a name to know.

Richie Martin was a better short stop than I expected for Florida. He looked solid at the plate as well. He won’t hit for a lot of pop but the bat is good enough to watch. He has some speed on the base paths as well. I really liked what I saw of him.

Eric Hanhold started and held his own. He didn’t do overly well but his breaking ball grades out a tick above average for a future grade. His fastball had good tail and sink early in the game but was very inconsistent and his confidence seemed to waiver as well past the 2^nd inning. He may not have a great freshman year but he should come around and be a contributor this season.

Michael Murray looked food for FGCU as well. I don’t know how great of a pro pitcher he’d be but he could be a good college arm over the next three years. Maybe his stuff improves over the next couple years but for pro ball purposes, Hanhold is the better prospect right now.

Other notes:

In other games this weekend, Mark Appel looked great against Fresno State. He held upper 90’s velocity into the late innings. His stuff was sharp and he hammered the zone. This is how he needs to pitch more often. He doesn’t need to do anything but challenge hitters.

Aaron Judge homered against Stanford yesterday. Kris Bryant put one out as well over the weekend.

FSU freshman Jameis Winston acted as closer for the Seminoles working in the low 90’s but getting into the mid 90’s.

James Kaprielian is the closer for UCLA as a freshman. He is a name to watch. He could be a 1^st rounder in 2015. He K’d the side to end the game yesterday.

Washington State OF Jason Monda hit a 3-run homer. He’s eligible for the draft this year. Could go in the top 3 rounds.

Dale Carey hit a homer for Miami as well. He's not a power guy but could be a good 3rd round type guy for some team.

Cole Irvin pitched 8 innings for Oregon. He is a freshman LHP with quite a bit of potential.

Justin Garza for Fullerton apparently did very well according to a couple sources. He’s not a big guy but had been up to 94 in the past.

Carson Fulmer was 95-97 with a nasty slider this weekend for Vanderbilt.

Xavier Turner swung the bat well starting his career 10-25.

Skye Bolt for North Carolina did well and is 12-22 to start his prep career with 5 doubles as well. Colin Moran is still looking for his first extra base hit.

MLB in an Alternate Universe Part II

2013-02-23T21:29:00.002-06:00

The top 10 picks in the 2014 draft:

Bryce Harper	OF	South Carolina
Dylan Bundy	P	Texas
Jose Fernandez	P	South Florida
Carlos Rodon	P	North Carolina State
Archie Bradley	P	Oklahoma
Josh Bell	OF	Texas
Brandon Nimmo	OF	Arkansas
Daniel Norris	P	Clemson
Noah Syndergaard	P	Dallas Baptist
Daniel Vogelbach	1B	Florida

Top 10 picks for the other draft:

Jurickson Profar	SS	20
Javier Baez	3B	20
Taijuan Walker	P	20
Xander Bogaerts	SS	20
Miguel Sano	3B	20
Alen Hanson	2B	20
Gary Sanchez	C	20
Luis Sardinas	SS	20
Domingo Santana	OF	20
David Perez	P	20

Just think how quickly the top 4 teams would turn around if they would get one player from each group. Obviously all the teams would get helped by the draft but could you imagine a team getting Harper and Profar for being the worst team in baseball. Bundy and Walker for being 2nd worst. Rodon and Sano for being 3rd worst...man, that would get people excited for being bad wouldn't it.

I think the draft would be a big deal when they watched Rodon face Harper all season, then face each other in the bigs the next year. Right now, there are probably only about 10 million people too few who know who Rodon is. This bother me and it just shouldn't be. This crazy idea could help promote MLB and the future of the game. It would promote college baseball, although I hate the NCAA and their idiotic rules. I would love to have the best prospects on TV at any time and see them develop without having to drive half way across the country to see a handful in a game face each other.

MLB could make this happen. It wouldn't be a pretty process but the end result could be amazing.

MLB in an Alternate Universe

2013-02-22T19:22:00.000-06:00

So I've been thinking..I'm always thinking. I can't turn my brain off as long as I'm awake, so I followed my crazy idea.

What if MLB was a little more like NFL with it's developmental system. What if NCAA baseball was a big deal and most of the prospects that make an impact were in the NCAA? Most players would have to be at least 21 to play in the majors. Maybe even 22. This would hurt some guys. Bryce Harper, Mike Trout and others wouldn't make impacts in the majors. Mike Trout would be patrolling CF for East Carolina. Bryce Harper would be in RF, maybe even catcher for South Carolina. The OF would have Mason Williams, Jackie Bradley and Wil Myers. A pitching staff with Taylor Guerreri, Jordan Lyles and Chris Owings at SS. Hell yeah, that would be fun to watch. I'm confident they wouldn't even be ranked #1. The players coming out of college would make an immediate impact. They would be placed on the 40 man roster (may need to bump up to 50, I haven't ran the numbers) and would get guaranteed 3 year MLB contracts. Players would go to arbitration after that, just as the current MLB system works. The draft would only be 5 rounds. Players would be 21-22, so the best of the best would be better easier to pick out and the success rate should be much greater.

The problem is that college isn't the path for everyone. There would still need to be another level. A league for those who don't want to deal with school. The second league would be different. No school, no education benefit so the players have to get something. They would get paid. It wouldn't be great pay but the payday would be coming. They too wouldn't get to play in the majors until 21-22. They would play in this league until then. They would be insured at a level requisite of their talent in case they blow out their arm and never make it to the majors so players from the Dominican or Venezuela would still be able to help their families. Since the league would be small, players would have to be invited into the league by teams. Tryouts could be held. It would be similar to a team signing a player, just not to a specific team, just this league. This league would be a 10-12 team league of 18-21 year olds and each year a 3 round draft would occur. The order would be the same as the college draft order. Poor teams would be able to turn it around much, much quicker. This would really help teams turn around losing seasons quickly and they wouldn't have long runs of horrendous play...I'm looking at you Pittsburgh.

There would be a lot of players that wouldn't get into this league and many that wouldn't get drafted out of college. These players would make independent leagues very strong and another feeder league to the majors at no cost to MLB. This would replace the current minor league system. Some minor league teams would fold. This would really be a drastic change. The point is to bunch up talent into smaller areas to create more interest and make more immediate impact on the majors, so if a bunch of MiLB teams fold, that is collateral damage to me. Many employed by MiLB could get jobs in the college ranks because that could potentially turn into a cash cow.

A few more details. Players would not be eligible for the draft unless they are 21 years old as of 7/23 (the date curretnly used to determine sophomore draft eligibility).

The College World Series would be held as it is now with the finale on 6/26. A combine would be held from 7/5-7/7 and the drafts would be held on 7/13, 7/14 during the All-Star break. Players would have to declare for the draft. Once they declare for the draft, the team that drafts them gets their rights for 6 years. They sign the deal that is slotted or they go home. No restrictions on trading picks or players at any time but teams can't trade future picks, only current year picks. Just think, instead of your favorite team trading a prospect for a veteran to make a run, they could add a 21 year old college stud or an elite international player to make a playoff run and you'd have him for at least 6 years, if he deserves it.

25 players would be active for each game with the rest of the 40(50) man roster available at any time. Players would be paid $75,000 annually given in the signing bonus at draft time which would guarantee 3 years worth of pay. Anyone who would play in an MLB game would get paid at $500,000 prorated for every game that they play in the bigs.

Taking a look at how it could work, it is interesting. I used my top 2000 rankings for each age range and lined up last seasons draft order, which wouldn't be the norm because of all the comp picks, but the Blue Jays would have spent about $13 million and acquired these players:

Matthew Davidson	22	3B	Southern California
Andrew Heaney	22	P	Oklahoma State
Damien Magnifico	22	P	Oklahoma
Brian Adams	22	OF	Kentucky
Marcus Semien	22	SS	California
Cameron Perkins	22	3B	Purdue
Steve Nyisztor	22	2B	Rutgers
Chris Taylor	22	SS	Virginia
John Kuchno	22	P	Ohio State
Edinson Rincon	22	3B
Carter Capps	22	P
Josh Sale	22	OF
Tyler Linton	22	OF
Rory Rhodes	22	1B
Dakota Bacus	22	P
Boss Moanaroa	22	1B

The Twins would have spent over $18 million and acquired these players:

Kevin Gausman	22	P	LSU
Sam Selman	22	P	Vanderbilt
Nolan Fontana	22	SS	Florida
Jeffrey Gelalich	22	OF	UCLA
Luke Bard	22	P	Georgia Tech
Robert Refsnyder	22	2B	Arizona
Krey Bratsen	22	OF	Texas A&M
Bryan Mitchell	22	P	North Carolina
Hak-Ju Lee	22	SS
Tyler Heineman	22	C
Zach Collier	22	OF
Alexis Aguilar	22	2B
Hector Hernandez	22	P
Tanner Peters	22	P

5 of them are upgrades over what they are running out there this year.

The Astros would improve for sure:

Wil Myers	22	OF	South Carolina
Max Stassi	22	C	UCLA
Pierce Johnson	22	P	Missouri State
Eddie Butler	22	P	Radford
Buck Farmer	22	P	Georgia Tech
Josh Conway	22	P	Coastal Carolina
Julio Teheran	22	P
Adrian Salcedo	22	P
Carlos Contreras	22	P
Cesar Galvez	22	2B

The Orioles would have got a little boost for their playoff run. Since Manny Machado would have been starring for Florida International for another year yet, they would have got Kolten Wong instead and added Yordano Ventura to their bullpen and Brian Johnson as well as a RP/PH.

Kolten Wong	22	2B	Hawaii
Josh Elander	22	C	TCU
Brian Johnson	22	P	Florida
Kevin Taylor	22	2B	St. Joseph's
Jeff Ferrell	22	P	Pitt CC
Yordano Ventura	22	P
Hansel Robles	22	P
Michael Clevinger	22	P

The First Round:

Team	Name	POS	Commit - history
Houston Astros	Wil Myers	OF	South Carolina
Minnesota Twins	Kevin Gausman	P	LSU
Seattle Mariners	Mike Zunino	C	Florida
Baltimore Orioles	Kolten Wong	2B	Hawaii
Kansas City Royals	Tyler Skaggs	P	Cal State Fullerton
Chicago Cubs	Shelby Miller	P	Texas A&M
San Diego Padres	Trevor Bauer	P	UCLA
Pittsburgh Pirates	Ryne Stanek	P	Arkansas
Miami Marlins	Anthony Gose	OF	Arizona
Colorado Rockies	Gerrit Cole	P	UCLA
Oakland Athletics	Marcus Stroman	P	Duke
New York Mets	Garin Cecchini	3B	Louisiana State
Chicago White Sox	Mark Appel	P	Stanford
Cincinnati Reds	Nolan Arenado	3B	Arizona State
Cleveland Indians	Jacob Turner	P	North Carolina
Washington Nationals	Chris Stratton	P	Mississippi State
Toronto Blue Jays	Matthew Davidson	3B	Southern California
Los Angeles Dodgers	Brian Goodwin	OF	Miami-Dade College
St. Louis Cardinals	Billy Hamilton	OF	Jones County Junior College
San Francisco Giants	Jake Marisnick	OF	Oregon
Atlanta Braves	Tommy Joseph	C	Arizona
Toronto Blue Jays	Andrew Heaney	P	Oklahoma State
St. Louis Cardinals	Drew Hutchison	P	Stetson
Boston Red Sox	Nick Franklin	2B	Auburn
Tampa Bay Rays	Miles Head	1B	Georgia
Arizona Diamondbacks	Deven Marrero	SS	Arizona State
Milwaukee Brewers	Tyler Naquin	OF	Texas A&M
Milwaukee Brewers	Slade Heathcott	OF	Louisiana State
Texas Rangers	Austin Maddox	P	Florida
New York Yankees	Tyler Matzek	P	Oregon
Boston Red Sox	Steven Rodriguez	P	Florida
Minnesota Twins	Sam Selman	P	Vanderbilt
San Diego Padres	Richie Shaffer	3B	Clemson
Oakland Athletics	Joe Panik	SS	St. John's
New York Mets	Garrett Gould	P	Wichita State
St. Louis Cardinals	Keyvius Sampson	P	Florida State
Boston Red Sox	Michael Wacha	P	Texas A&M
Milwaukee Brewers	Jordan Lyles	P	South Carolina
Texas Rangers	Robbie Erlin	P	Cal Poly-SLO
Philadelphia Phillies	Dane Phillips	C	Arkansas

The Other First Round:

Houston Astros	Julio Teheran	P
Minnesota Twins	Hak-Ju Lee	SS
Seattle Mariners	Oswaldo Arcia	OF
Baltimore Orioles	Yordano Ventura	P
Kansas City Royals	Martin Perez	P
Chicago Cubs	Manny Banuelos	P
San Diego Padres	Bruce Rondon	P
Pittsburgh Pirates	Rymer Liriano	OF
Miami Marlins	Jonathan Galvez	2B
Colorado Rockies	Marcell Ozuna	OF
Oakland Athletics	Avisail Garcia	OF
New York Mets	Yasiel Puig	OF
Chicago White Sox	Leury Garcia	SS
Cincinnati Reds	Cesar Puello	OF
Cleveland Indians	Daniel Corcino	P
Washington Nationals	Arodys Vizcaino	P
Toronto Blue Jays	Edinson Rincon	3B
Los Angeles Dodgers	Julio Rodriguez	P
St. Louis Cardinals	Jonathan Villar	SS
San Francisco Giants	Jose Rafael De Paula	P
Atlanta Braves	Reymond Fuentes	OF
Toronto Blue Jays	Carter Capps	P
St. Louis Cardinals	Jae-Hoon Ha	OF
Boston Red Sox	Elvis Araujo	P
Tampa Bay Rays	Enny Romero	P
Arizona Diamondbacks	Nick Tropeano	P
Milwaukee Brewers	Christian Villanueva	3B
Milwaukee Brewers	Rafael Ortega	OF
Texas Rangers	Jefry Marte	3B
New York Yankees	Daniel Santana	SS
Boston Red Sox	Kennys Vargas	1B
Minnesota Twins	Tyler Heineman	C
San Diego Padres	Cristhian Adames	SS
Oakland Athletics	Theo Bowe	OF
New York Mets	Mitch Haniger	OF
St. Louis Cardinals	Michael Almanzar	3B
Boston Red Sox	Robinson Yambati	P
Milwaukee Brewers	William Beckwith	1B
Texas Rangers	Kyle Simon	P
Philadelphia Phillies	Jeff Soptic	P

The best players that wouldn't have been drafted:

Ian Krol	22	P	Arizona
Madison Younginer	22	P	Clemson
Navery Moore	22	P	Vanderbilt
Lex Rutledge	22	P	Samford
Scott Griggs	22	P	UCLA
Ian Gardeck	22	P	Alabama
Cameron Coffey	22	P	Duke
Jayce Boyd	22	1B	Florida State
Alexander Lavisky	22	C	Georgia Tech
JaDamion Williams	22	2B	Maryland
Stetson Allie	22	3B	North Carolina
Dylan Floro	22	P	Cal State Fullerton
Anthony Gomez	22	SS	Vanderbilt
Devon Travis	22	2B	Florida State
Tanner Bushue	22	P	John A. Logan College
Max White	22	1B	Oklahoma
Arby Fields	22	OF	Cypress Col
Mitch Garver	22	C	New Mexico
Kyle Wren	22	OF	Georgia Tech
Ryan Tella	22	OF	Ohlone Col

Looks fun to me. What do you think?

Jose Canseco Projection

2013-02-18T20:54:00.000-06:00

"so bigness could develop and dominate."

As I've posted, I'm working on a projection system. It takes three seasons worth of minor league data to get a good handle on who a player is, though less can create a projection, just with a larger variance.

This is what I would my projection system created for Professor Canseco using his AA, Hi A and Short season data from his 18, 19, 20 year old seasons.

The top lines are projections for the range of where a player is likely to end up. The middle is the most likely but if you really like a player, aim toward the higher level. The career projection is not the most accurate but how can you project a career for a 20 year old, right? It's an educated guess and a ballpark as to whether the system likes a player or not.

The percentages are how likely a player is to max out at that level. Canseco is an example of a low risk prospect with a high likelihood of success. The second chart is how likely a player is to continue to play at the big league level throughout his career. An average hitter seems to be at about replacement level at 80% from what I can see but I have not ran any diagnostics on this yet.

This is just one projection. I plan on doing many more. Let me know if you like the layout or the design, or dislike it or if you have requests.

Out Of The Park Baseball 14

2013-02-12T19:46:00.001-06:00

OOTP is the deepest and most realistic Baseball Game I have ever played. This year they have made a ton of improvements to an already great game to make it even more realistic. If you enjoy simulation baseball, its as good as it gets. If you want a phenomenal game and would like to support MLBPG, click the link on the right side bar and order the game through my site and I get a small commission. Everyone who pre-orders OOTP 14 by this Friday, Feb. 15. will save $5 ($34.99) and will be entered in a drawing to win a 64GB iPod touch or one of three $100 Amazon gift cards. They'll also get the game 3 days before its release in April.

OOTP 14 Features

Here are the new and revamped features you'll find in OOTP 14. As in past years, more surprise features will likely be added as we get closer to Opening Day. Stay tuned!

2013 Opening Day Major League Rosters

You'll love our 2013 roster set, which features not only up-to-date Opening Day rosters for all major league teams but also thousands of individually-rated players for all minor leagues and hundreds of players from the 2013 first-year player draft class. Major league player ratings are officially based on Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system, which has proven to be the most accurate player stats projection system on the market! The 2013 season will have plenty of drama in store. Will Mike Trout be able to improve upon his already legendary rookie season? How will Aroldis Chapman fare in the Cincinnati rotation? Will Washington with a healthy Stephen Strasburg and a more experienced Bryce Harper dominate the NL East? Will Toronto's all-in approach pay off? How will the AL West welcome Houston? Does Anaheim have the best lineup in baseball? Play OOTP 14 and find out!

Completely Recoded Player Origin System

We have completely recoded player origin to make your league's development much more realistic. There are now 5 different ways new players enter the league, and each one can be customized for the number of created players and their nationalities:

The First-Year Player Draft: By default, players in the draft pool are now from the USA, Canada or Puerto Rico. However, the nationality can be tweaked in great detail and can also include a set percentage of random nationalities. That also applies to the following optional player entry methods.

International Amateur Top Prospects (optional): These players are typically 16-to-17-years-old who have a reputation of being top talents. They appear as free agents in a new special international section of the league transaction screen and most likely will demand contracts with high signing bonuses (another new feature). You can customize the number of these players who will be created each year.

Established International Free Agents (optional): These players are typically from Japan, South Korea, Cuba, Taiwan and Mexico and are between 22 and 32 years old. They typically have slightly below average major league talent, but there will be the occasional star player, like Yu Darvish, Ichiro, or Aroldis Chapman.

International Scouting Discoveries (optional): Your team's scouts constantly evaluate the international leagues as they seek young, raw, and unknown talent. The success of your head scout is determined by the scouting budget, the quality of your scout, and his assigned regions. When your head scout discovers a player who he feels may have a shot at becoming a pro, that player is automatically assigned to your team's new international complex. Players in the international complex may remain there until their 20th birthdays, after which they will have to be assigned to a minor league team or released.

Players from Independent Leagues (optional): You may also have your head scout look for talent in hidden independent leagues. These players are typically from the league home nation, but once in a while an international talent may be discovered here too. Independent league players are typically in their early-to-mid-20s and usually only have an outside shot at becoming borderline major league players. However, there may be the occasional feel-good success story.

Recoded Player Creation Algorithms

As we sought to create more realistic player types and support the new player origin system, we recoded OOTP's complex player creation routines. This ensures more stable long-term simulations and more realistic player careers and stats output.

New Fielding Ratings Development System

In real life, young players usually start out playing positions that demand a certain grade of athleticism. However, as players mature, they often grow out of these so-called skill positions (such as shortstop, catcher, or center field) and have to shift to the right side of the defensive spectrum. This is now properly modeled in the OOTP player development engine. For example, if you draft that talented 18-year-old 6'3" 175 lb shortstop, you may end up with a below-average 230 lb corner outfielder eventually.

Recoded Scouting System

We have recoded the way OOTP evaluates players, both for the OOTP Scouting Agency ("OSA") and your head scout. For example, players with several years of pro experience are now better scouted than in previous versions, and the OSA is more accurate overall, providing a valid second opinion on players. There are also players who are vastly overrated or underrated by almost all scouts, resulting in more late-round surprises.

Better Player Development Tracking

OOTP now properly tracks the development of your players and offers several ways to analyze the data. You receive monthly player development updates from your head scout (or the OSA, if scouts are disabled), who highlights the most important changes, such as when a pitcher in the lower minor leagues learns a new pitch and improves his prospect status.

Expanded Real-Time Simulation Experience

The real-time simulation feature was a big hit in OOTP 13 - all of you loved it! We have listened to your feedback and improved the experience, such as adding an expanded view on a single game that is currently in progress. This new view shows you the most important facts of the selected game, like the current batter-pitcher matchup, past plays, basic box scores, win probability, and so forth.

Improved Trading

We improve the trading AI each year, and OOTP 14 is no different. On top of that, we added a screen that keeps track of all the trades in the history of the league, with a detailed look at the involved players' salaries, overall ratings, prospect rankings, and so forth. OOTP 14 also adds a "Not interested in Player X" function that prevents the AI from repeatedly offering a certain player to you.

Miscellaneous Features

On top of these headline features, we are tweaking and improving other areas of the game too, such as:

Improved interface
Better player evaluation AI
Roster AI recoding, resulting in better managing of minor leagues and the 40-man roster
Better contract negotiation AI
Improved depth charts and pitching staff control, i.e. list your preferred pinch-hitters, pinch-runners and "LOOGY"-Pitcher.
New graphical depth chart screen
Improved league strategy settings; i.e., define the number of starting pitchers, relief pitchers, and position players carried by the AI teams, split by DH and non-DH sub-leagues.
Smarter in-game AI
Improved in-game control, including "Pitch to Contact" option and better stealing control in one-pitch mode
Much more storylines
Improved play-by-play commentary
One-click joining of online leagues
New playoff series analysis screen

My New Projection System at Work

2013-02-06T16:34:00.003-06:00

I'm working on a projection system for hitters to project their big league career averages. Not season data or how they will progress through their career yet, just career averages based on similar players. The data, I feel, is pretty damn solid.

For a comparison, I am using the top 10 hitter from the 2006 Baseball America list and using data from 2005 and back. I use up to 3 years of data if available but less works, just a little more volatile. Stephen Drew was the most volatile player on this list but it was still very accurate. While there are deviations in each section, overall it does seem to point toward the players future success.

The age of debut seems poor at this point, often a year or more off but that is more related to opportunity and teams pushing their top talent.

	Projected								Actual
2006 BA top 100 rank	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	BB	K	AGE OF DEBUT	avg	obp	slg	ops	age
1. Delmon Young	0.276	0.325	0.480	0.805	7	43	135	21.64	0.284	0.317	0.425	0.742	20.349
2. Justin Upton	0.277	0.349	0.469	0.818	0	66	111	20.21	0.278	0.357	0.475	0.832	19.342
3. Brandon Wood	0.274	0.292	0.556	0.848	0	16	156	21.79	0.186	0.225	0.289	0.513	22.055
4. Jeremy Hermida	0.276	0.341	0.409	0.750	0	59	124	22.12	0.257	0.334	0.415	0.749	21.213
5. Stephen Drew	0.266	0.345	0.414	0.758	9	72	111	22.84	0.265	0.328	0.433	0.762	23.121
9. Lastings Milledge	0.270	0.340	0.426	0.766	0	64	117	22.42	0.269	0.328	0.395	0.723	21.055
11. Prince Fielder	0.293	0.352	0.567	0.918	0	55	138	22.21	0.287	0.393	0.538	0.931	21.035
12. Howie Kendrick	0.278	0.338	0.455	0.793	1	54	121	23.80	0.292	0.328	0.428	0.756	22.288
13. Alex Gordon	0.272	0.344	0.455	0.798	2	66	112	23.58	0.269	0.348	0.439	0.787	23.051
14. Andy Marte	0.294	0.351	0.533	0.883	0	53	132	21.42	0.218	0.277	0.358	0.635	21.229

Looking at the percent correlation to OPS, overall I'm happy with it. Delmon underachieved due to his ridiculous swinging habits. Brandon Wood was a colossal whiff but something about the 16 BB to 156 K ration should get your attention in my projection. It foretold the fact that Lastings Milledge was over rated and he even still under achieved. Even a predicted slugging of .567 wasn't enough for big Prince, as he has still outpaced my prediction. Andy Marte was a big ole whiff as well. I have no clue why. He was a hell of a prospect.

2006 BA top 100 rank	% Error - OPS
1. Delmon Young	-8.50%
2. Justin Upton	1.69%
3. Brandon Wood	-65.39%
4. Jeremy Hermida	-0.09%
5. Stephen Drew	0.50%
9. Lastings Milledge	-5.99%
11. Prince Fielder	1.36%
12. Howie Kendrick	-4.90%
13. Alex Gordon	-1.42%
14. Andy Marte	-39.07%

So, I think this is working. I will run the numbers on the top 100 hitting prospects for this year and email them out to anyone who has purchased my prospect percentages as soon as I'm done. It will probably be this weekend for all of the prospect draft happening. So if you want these for your draft, buy one here or click the right side bar and let it guide you thru PayPal. Only $9.99.

If you have questions, hit me up on twitter, or email me at MLBProspectGuide at gmail dot com

Thanks a Million

2013-02-06T10:33:00.000-06:00

Hey guys,
Noticed this morning that between this site and my MLB Draft Prospect site, I crossed the 1 million page view mark. The blog is about 3 weeks from being 4 years old. I've learned a ton in the last 4 years doing this. Thanks to everyone who reads and has followed my progress on the site. I'm a lot better at this now than I was 4 years ago and I hope it gives you good results however you use my info.

Jeremy Martinez

2013-01-22T22:10:00.000-06:00

Jeremy Martinez, C, Fountain Valley, CA
High School Senior
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
HT/WT: 5'11"/195
Birthdate: 12/29/94 Age at Draft: 18.57

Martinez is not an ordinary high school draft prospect. As a sophomore, he looked like he was elite and was well above his peers. He compared favorably with players that were two years older than him and that is rare in the prep ranks. Since then, Martinez has done nothing to diminish his skill set as an elite draft prospect. The problem is, many others have shown those skills now as well.
He has a strong, smooth powerful swing that is short to the ball but stays in the zone a long time. With that swing, he should hit for a high average at any level. As for the power, it should come. He will always hit a good amount of extra base hits but the over the fence power will take time to develop. He has very good defense. He has good blocking skills, a strong accurate arm and a quick release. He should be at least average behind the dish as long as his lower half doesn't thicken up too fast. As a runner, he is well below average.

I like Martinez a lot but I don't know that he will go real high in the draft as previously expected. His bat is great but I don't know if his defense behind the plate will stay good enough to be a full time catcher if he bulks up. He doesn't have the speed to play anywhere else besides catcher and his height doesn't fit first base well. I have some concerns and I think other teams will too. It just takes one to fully believe and take him high. He is very polished and could move quickly for a prep catcher, which is like saying a glacier is moving faster than most. He may not be in the top 3 prep back stops come draft day. That said, I doubt he reaches Southern California and I would think he goes in the back half of the first round.

Ian Clarkin

2013-01-22T21:28:00.000-06:00

Ian Clarkin, P, San Diego, CA
High School Senior
Bats/Throws: Left/Left
HT/WT: 6'1"/190
Birthdate: 2/14/95 Age at Draft: 18.44

Ian Clarkin Prospect Video, James Madison High School (via Steve Fiorindo)
Ian Clarkin is 6'1", 190 pounds. He isn't stocky but he isn't overly projectable either. He has muscular legs and sloped shoulders making me think he could add 15 pounds or so to his frame without losing his free and easy delivery. He has a very high leg kick but has an inconsistent follow through. He has a few minor mechanical issues but nothing that is out of the ordinary or that look like red flags. The leg kick and arm speed also add to his deception.

The best I saw him was with a 94 MPH fastball and a potential plus-plus breaking ball at 72-75 MPH. It looked unhittable and unfair at times. It's elite level when on. His fastball was more consistently 90-91 that he works down in the zone with good movement. His changeup is in the 77-80 MPH range and there is no reason it couldn't become an average pitch or better. It was hard to pick up and had some fade. He controls all three pitches well and should have average or better command.

Projecting Clarkin to have a 91-92 MPH fastball, a plus breaking ball and an average change to me is the low end of his potential and that would be a good #3 starter. I could see him better than that in the future and he could be a #2 starter if he commands all three pitches well and sits 92-94. That could be very likely. He has higher potential than many in the draft, though a lot of it depends on command and that curveball. He is one of my favorite arms in this class and could be a top 15 pick, if not higher with a good spring.

Luis Heredia

2013-01-22T21:25:00.001-06:00

Kyle Gibson

2013-01-22T21:25:00.000-06:00