1. Brewers take commanding lead

Milwaukee set the tone immediately in Game 3 of the NLCS, with Jackson Chourio taking Blake Snell deep on the first pitch. Snell and Robert Gasser dueled over the first five innings. The Dodgers finally got on the board with two in the sixth inning, only for the Brewers to immediately put up three runs in the top of the seventh. The two-time defending champs will have to pull a 2024 Red Sox to keep their three-peat hopes alive. “At the beginning of this year, we set out to do something historic,” Max Muncy said (h/t Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). “It looks like we’re going to have to make a little more history along the way if we want to accomplish that.”

2. Bauers and Mitchell go back-to-back

Brewers first baseman Jake Bauers put together another epic at-bat in a crucial spot. After working a 12-pitch walk against Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 2, he saw 11 pitches from Snell in the seventh inning last night. This time, the battle ended with a go-ahead two-run homer (video link via MLB on X). Garrett Mitchell then doubled the Brewers’ lead with a solo homer to chase Snell from the game. “I mean three home runs in a game – I didn’t give up one the whole year,” Snell told reporters (h/t again to Plunkett). “To have three in a game is pretty frustrating.”

3. Williams to start Game 3

The Guardians will hand the ball to ace Gavin Williams with the ALCS heading to Cleveland. The big right-hander was virtually untouchable in the ALDS, piling up 24 strikeouts over 11 2/3 innings. Williams earned the win in the deciding game of the series with 5 2/3 scoreless frames and a dozen punchouts. The Rays will counter with righty Griffin Jax. It’ll likely be a bullpen-heavy game for Tampa Bay, as Jax hasn’t covered more than five innings since July.

Photo courtesy of Kirby Lee, Imagn Images

Mattingly relieved former manager Rob Thomson near the end of April. Philadelphia was 10 games under .500 when the club parted with Thomson. Mattingly led the team to a Wild Card berth. The Phillies went 79-55 after he took over.

There were rumblings last week that Mattingly could stick as manager after the Phillies were denied again by Alex Cora. He’d been their first choice to replace Thomson after being fired by the Red Sox in April. Cora said no at the time and maintained that he didn’t want the gig when pursued after the season ended. He’s reportedly not interested in managing at all next season and instead plans to take the downtime with his family.

Mattingly was going to be with the Phillies in some fashion for 2027. He signed a two-year deal to be the bench coach heading into this season. The Athletic’s Matt Gelb and Jayson Stark had previously reported that Mattingly could move to a front-office advisor position if he wasn’t given the manager gig. He’d be working closely with his son, Preston, who has been the Phillies’ general manager since 2024.

Handing Mattingly the full-time job seemed like a layup heading into the final week of the regular season. The Phillies weren’t going to catch the Braves in the NL East, but they were cruising to a Wild Card spot. It was just a matter of how the seeding would shake out with the Cubs and Padres. Then things got interesting. With the clinch in reach, Philly lost four straight games. A hot streak from the Diamondbacks forced the Phillies into a must-win situation in the final game of the season. They were able to beat the Rays and earn the final Wild Card spot in the National League.

However, while the Phillies avoided a major collapse, their rotation was affected in the playoffs. Zack Wheeler was forced to start Game 162, which meant he wasn’t available in the first game of the Wild Card round. Wheeler didn’t start any of the three games against the Braves. He came in relief in Game 3 with Philly already losing 3-0 after Aaron Nola was tagged for an early three-run homer.

The early playoff exit ultimately didn’t cost Mattingly a shot at the head job. With changes likely coming for the roster, some stability at the top makes sense. Mattingly has a dozen seasons of managerial experience on his resume. He was at the helm for the Dodgers from 2011 through 2015. Mattingly spent seven seasons leading the Marlins, a stint that included NL Manager of the Year honors in 2020. The 65-year-old Mattingly has a career 968-1005 record as a manager, though much of that losing record is attributable to the Marlins’ basement-level payrolls and frequent rebuilding status during his time in Miami.

Charlotte Varnes and Matt Gelb of The Athletic first reported that the Phillies would retain Mattingly as their permanent skipper.

Williams hasn’t technically elected free agency, according to the tracker, but it’s a formality that he’ll do so. He has played more than seven seasons in the minors and would hit the market as a minor league free agent either way. There’s a decent chance it’s a precursor to another non-roster contract with Atlanta, with whom Williams has spent the past three seasons.

The Braves kept the 30-year-old in the minors for virtually the entire season. He was on the big league roster for two days in April while Michael Harris II was on paternity leave. Williams hit just .218/.311/.367 across 363 plate appearances with Triple-A Gwinnett. He stole 37 bases in 40 tries, however, so the Braves added him to their Wild Card Series roster in case they needed a pinch-runner. The situation never came up against the Phillies, and Atlanta swapped him out for the five-game Division Series when they went from 11 to 13 pitchers.

It’s not a surprising declaration. Though the Sox had a good season, the rotation was not a strength. The club’s starters logged a total of 674 2/3 innings, the fewest of the 30 teams in the league. Their 4.60 earned run average was better than just four other clubs. Chicago deployed a pitching chaos strategy in the postseason, with few traditional starts.

The use of openers clouds those splits a bit but the general overview lines up with a deeper dive. Sean Burke, Davis Martin, Anthony Kay and Erick Fedde were the club’s biggest innings eaters this year. Fedde is headed to free agency. Kay had a serviceable 4.44 ERA with a subpar 18.2% strikeout rate. Martin had a 3.95 ERA but in uneven fashion. His ERA was at 2.00 through the end of May but was 5.63 after that. Burke was similar but less extreme. He had a 2.99 ERA through his start on August 11 but a 4.66 ERA in his final seven outings.

The Sox tried to bolster the rotation by adding Luis Castillo at the deadline but that was a disaster. He had an 8.42 ERA after the trade and got moved to the bullpen. A shoulder impingement put him on the injured list in September. Getz today suggested that both Castillo and Martin were hampered by injuries late in the season, Martin due to a right calf issue that didn’t put him on the IL. “Look forward to seeing what both of those players can do for us come spring training,” Getz said.

Castillo has a long track record of success, with a career ERA of 3.75 in 272 games. However, he will soon turn 34 and has been trending down lately. His strikeout rate was at 27.3% in 2023 but dropped to 24.3%, 21.7% and 18.9% in the three subsequent campaigns. His contract still has one more guaranteed year at a $22.75MM salary. His trade value will be way down with that contract, his recent performance and injury. The Sox will be motivated to get him back on track next year.

Castillo, Martin, Burke and Kay should be in the mix for roles on next year’s team. Getz also mentioned Noah Schultz and David Sandlin as possibilities. Both pitchers have potential but haven’t locked anything in yet. Schultz posted a 5.57 ERA in 74 1/3 innings this year. Sandlin had a 5.58 ERA in 40 1/3. They both have options and could be sent to Triple-A if the Sox make some external additions. Burke and Martin also have options but are more established at the big league level.

Getz added that he expects Grant Taylor and Hagen Smith to be starters in the future but didn’t make any firm commitments about 2027. Taylor had a great year out of the bullpen, posting a 2.25 ERA in 84 innings over 60 appearances. His 8.9% walk rate was around average while his 31.5% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate were both well north of par. He added another 8 2/3 innings over five playoff appearances.

Taylor had Tommy John surgery in college and has been gradually increasing his workload as a professional. He logged 19 1/3 minor league innings in 2024. Last year, he got up to 63 1/3, majors and minors combined. He pushed that to 92 2/3 this year, regular season and playoffs combined. The Sox will likely try to push that number even further next year but getting to a full starter’s workload of 150-200 innings might be too much.

Smith was the fifth overall pick in the 2024 draft. He has huge strikeout stuff but also huge control issues. In 141 2/3 minor league innings, he has struck out 33.4% of batters faced while giving out walks at a 16.4% pace. He made his major league debut this year and the results were largely the same, with a 37.4% strikeout rate and 14.5% walk rate. He only tossed 86 1/3 innings this year, so there’s an argument for him staying in the minors to continue honing his command and building his workload in a less competitive setting.

Adding to the rotation via free agency would be sensible and should be possible. The Sox came into the year in rebuilding mode and had spent little on the roster. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Sox spent $86MM on this year’s club. They were at $193MM as recently as 2022. A few players are signed through 2027 but there’s nothing on the books for 2028, apart from a $2MM option buyout for Kay. Getz says he hasn’t yet talked to owner Jerry Reinsdorf about next year’s payroll.

It would be stunning if the Sox made a run at Tarik Skubal but there’s room on the books for it. Even if they don’t chase that pipe dream, free agency features Trevor Rogers, Freddy Peralta, Tyler Mahle and many other arms.

It’s also possible the club looks to trade from its position player group. Their primary infield in 2026 consisted of Miguel Vargas at third, Colson Montgomery at shortstop, Chase Meidroth at second base and Munetaka Murakami at first base. Per Baseball America, the club’s top three prospects are shortstops. Roch Cholowsky is number one, Caleb Bonemer second and Billy Carlson third.

That could put some pressure on Montgomery. He hit 31 home runs this year but also set a new single-season record with 227 strikeouts. His defensive reviews were mixed. He was credited with 10 Outs Above Average but got a minus-four grade from Defensive Runs Saved. “He’s well aware of adjustments that need to be made,” Getz said.

For now, he should be safe. Carlson is only 20 years old and hasn’t even reached High-A. Cholowsky is 21 and hasn’t reached Double-A. Bonemer is also 21, hasn’t reached Triple-A and the Sox have also been moving him to third base and center field. In time, the Sox may have to make some tough decisions. Murakami is only signed through 2027 and Vargas is a poor defender at third. Perhaps Vargas will move over to first for 2028, opening third base for Bonemer or someone else. But if Montgomery keeps striking out at this rate as other shortstops emerge, perhaps a shake-up will come.

Getz also mentioned the possibility of the Sox adding to the outfield with Randal Grichuk and Tommy Pham slated for free agency. However, Fegan points out that the club has already been pushing infielders to the grass. Sam Antonacci came up as an infielder but became the regular left fielder this year. He and Tristan Peters should be back next year and perhaps Bonemer can push his way in as well. Braden Montgomery, Brenton Doyle and others are also in the mix. The Sox could add here but the rotation is a much more glaring need.

Photo courtesy of Jamie Sabau, Imagn Images

Guaranteed Contracts

• SS/3B Kevin McGonigle: $136MM through 2034
• LHP Framber Valdez: $77.5MM through 2028 (including buyout of ’29 mutual option; Valdez can opt out after ’27)
• SS/CF Javier Báez: $24MM through 2027
• 3B/1B Colt Keith: $16.6425MM through 2029 (including buyout of ’30 club option; deal also includes club options for ’31-32)
• RHP Kyle Finnegan: $10.25MM through 2027 (including buyout of ’28 mutual option)

Option Decisions

• Team holds $12MM option ($2MM buyout) on RHP Kenley Jansen
• Team holds $10MM option (no buyout) on RHP Drew Anderson

Additional future commitments: Owe $31MM in deferred payments to Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander between 2030-39

2027 guarantees: $76.5MM
Total future commitments: $297.3925MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

• Will Vest (5.100): $4.4MM
• Zach McKinstry (5.099): $5MM
• Matt Vierling (5.026): $3.7MM
• Riley Greene (4.110): $9.3MM
• Spencer Torkelson (4.076): $7.7MM
• Kerry Carpenter (4.057): $4.1MM
• Tyler Holton (4.047): $2.4MM
• Beau Brieske (4.007): $1.5MM
• Reese Olson (3.123): $1.5MM
• Wenceel Pérez (3.000): $1.4MM
• Parker Meadows (2.169): $1MM

Non-tender candidates: Vest, McKinstry, Vierling, Brieske, Pérez

Free Agents

• Gleyber Torres, Jack Flaherty, Justin Verlander (retired), Jacob Waguespack, Burch Smith, Tyler Kinley, Tanner Rainey, James Outman (eligible for minor league free agency)

The Tigers never recovered from a 6-22 performance in May, making it all but inevitable they’d listen on Tarik Skubal at the deadline. Detroit played well in June and July to make that a little more interesting, yet a blown 7-0 lead in what proved to be Skubal’s final start sealed their fate. He’d be shipped off to the Dodgers three days later for outfielder Zyhir Hope and right-hander River Ryan. The Tigers followed by dealing their other big impending free agent, Casey Mize, to San Diego for 2024 first-round pick Kash Mayfield.

Detroit stopped short of any kind of full teardown. They didn’t move anyone whom they had under club control beyond this season (aside from including depth infielder Gage Workman in the Mize deal). Other impending free agents Gleyber Torres, Jack Flaherty and Kenley Jansen were expensive enough to have minimal trade value. Detroit hung around for a little while in a poor American League playoff race, but a 2-11 stretch in late August extinguished any hopes of a miracle run.

The American League Central has improved but remains one of the two weakest divisions in MLB. The Tigers should expect to compete for a division title in 2027. How do they get there?

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There will also be a change at third base coach. When Mattingly took over for Thomson, third base coach Dusty Wathan replaced Mattingly as bench coach. Anthony Contreras was called up from his role as Triple-A manager to be the new third base coach. Contreras will stay with the team but in a different role, per Gelb.

6:30pm: The Phillies will be moving on from hitting coach Kevin Long and infield coach Bobby Dickerson, reports Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia.

Long, 59, was hired as the club’s hitting coach going into the 2022 season. He previously held that title with the Yankees, Mets and Nationals. His first season in Washington, 2018, was Bryce Harper’s last before hitting free agency and signing with Philadelphia. The Phils were rebuilding at that time, missing the playoffs in each season from 2012 to 2021. In that latter campaign, the team-wide batting line was .240/.318/.408, leading to a 94 wRC+.

The first season under Long was a success. The Phils hit .253/.317/.422 in 2022 for a wRC+ of 107. They made a run to the World Series, though they lost to the Astros. After that one year in Philadelphia, Long was signed to an extension of unknown length.

For the next three seasons, things largely held steady. From 2023 to 2025, the club had a combined .257/.327/.431 line and 106 wRC+. The Phils made the playoffs in all three of those years, though they lost in the NLCS in 2023 and the NLDS in the two following years.

2026 was a step back. As a team, they hit .240/.312/.395. That led to a wRC+ of 92, which was better than only the Reds and Rockies. 11 players made at least 130 plate appearances for the Phillies this year. Only Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Bryson Stott produced a wRC+ greater than 90. Lineup staples like Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto had down years. Luis Arraez saw his numbers dip after being acquired from the Giants at the deadline.

It’s always hard to pin a club’s success or failure on one coach but the Phillies are making decisions about next year’s staff and have opted for change here. Earlier today, interim manager Don Mattingly had the interim tag removed as he was signed to a two-year deal to skipper the club in 2027 and 2028. Mattingly took over in April when Rob Thomson was fired and perhaps had some ideas about how to shake up a staff that he inherited midseason.

Dickerson has over a decade as a big league coach. Since 2011, he has worked for the Orioles, Padres and Phillies, variously holding the titles of bullpen coach, third base coach, bench coach and infield coach. He was hired as infield coach for the Phillies in October of 2021.

The Phillies have had poor defensive metrics for years, though blaming that on any staff member would be difficult. The club has clearly prioritized offense over defense in its roster construction. They have signed bat-first players like Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. They have given lots of playing time to Alec Bohm at third base, despite his awful numbers there. At the deadline, they shook up their alignment in order to put Arraez at second base, moving Stott to third, Bohm to first and Harper to right field.

For what it’s worth, the Phillies had a collective mark of minus-51 from Defensive Runs Saved this year, tied with the Athletics for last in the league. Outs Above Average had them at minus-21, in the bottom third of MLB teams. Bohm and Turner were graded poorly by both metrics. Stott did well with OAA but not DRS. Harper’s first base work was neutral in the eyes of DRS but subpar according to OAA.

Photo courtesy of Morgan Tencza, Imagn Images

Player ages are for the 2027 season, and names within each tier are listed alphabetically, not “ranked.” Only players who appeared in MLB (or on major league 60-day injured lists) this year are included.

Previous entries in this series: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop, Center Field, Corner Outfield, Designated Hitter, Starting Pitcher, Lefty Relief

Proven Closers

• David Bednar (32)

Bednar has had some ups and downs but has been a lockdown closer for most of the past five years. He racked up 19 saves for the Pirates in 2022 with a 2.61 earned run average. The following year, he posted a flat ERA of 2.00 and notched 39 more saves.

A big setback came in 2024. Bednar’s strikeout rate had been hovering around 30% in previous seasons but dipped to 22.1% while his ERA shot up to 5.77. He got out to a slow start in 2025 and was optioned to the minors in April. He was back less than three weeks later and has been quite consistent since then. He has thrown 131 innings since being recalled from that brief optional assignment with a 2.20 ERA, a 30.8% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate, 48.1% ground ball rate and 61 saves.

The big ERA spike in 2024 isn’t likely to be a huge issue for Bednar, as there’s some precedent working in his favor. Josh Hader had a 5.22 ERA in 2022 but bounced back with a 1.28 ERA in 2023. He then signed a five-year, $95MM deal with the Astros. Edwin Díaz had a 5.59 ERA in 2019. He corrected in subsequent years and eventually nabbed a five-year, $102MM deal with the Mets, with an opt-out after three.

The Yankees will first have to decide whether or not to give Bednar a qualifying offer. It’s somewhat rare for a reliever to receive a QO but the top closers usually do. In the past decade, Díaz, Hader, Raisel Iglesias, Will Smith, Craig Kimbrel, Greg Holland, Wade Davis and Kenley Jansen have received QOs. They all declined. Holland eventually settled for a one-year, $14MM deal but everyone else in that group landed a deal of at least three years and $40MM.

Bednar could accept the QO, stick in the Bronx for another year and return to free agency after the lockout but he’s already 32 years old and will probably look to cash in. He shouldn’t be able to get to the Hader/Díaz level of guarantee since he’s older than those guys and has never flashed the same kind of 40-50% strikeout rate upside, but a strong three- or four-year deal with an eight-figure salary should be attainable.

• Raisel Iglesias (37)

Iglesias keeps putting up numbers as he pushes towards his late 30s. He just tossed 60 innings with a 2.55 ERA. That’s actually a slight improvement from 2025, when he had a 3.21 ERA. Under the hood, some things trended in the wrong direction, though only slightly. The velocity on his four-seamer and sinker dropped by about half a mile per hour. His 26.8% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate were both slightly worse than last year’s 27.4% and 6% clips. On the other hand, he increased his ground ball rate from 30.5% to 37.6%.

It has now been six straight full seasons of posting an ERA of 3.21 or lower for Iglesias. He racked up at least 29 saves in five of those six. Despite the consistency, his age will prevent him from getting a long-term offer. He was a free agent last offseason and signed a one-year, $16MM deal with Atlanta.

He has a case for two years, even at this age. In the past five years, Mark Melancon, Adam Ottavino, Chris Martin and Blake Treinen all signed two-year deals beginning in their age-37 seasons. But since Iglesias just returned to Atlanta on a one-year deal last time, it wouldn’t be a shock for that to happen again.

Solid Setup Arms

• Bryan Abreu (30)

Abreu has been one of the better setup arms in baseball for a few years. Unfortunately, he is coming off his worst season since he became established. From 2022 to 2025, he logged 281 2/3 innings with a 2.30 ERA, 34.3% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate and 39.9% ground ball rate. In 2026, he had a 3.73 ERA. His 39.9% grounder rate was in line with expectations. His 29.9% strikeout rate was down for him but still well above average. Most concerningly, his walk rate shot up to 15.3%.

He at least finished with some positive momentum, as his worst stretch of the year was right out of the gate. After 7 1/3 innings, he had a 14.73 ERA and horrendous 30.2% walk rate. In his final 55 1/3 innings, he had a 2.28 ERA. His 12.4% walk rate in that time was still concerning but much closer to season-opening expectations.

His velocity was down a bit for the year but was lowest in May and bounced back after that. He was mostly around 97 mph with his four-seamer from 2022 to 2025. He was at 95.7 in 2026 but with a nadir of 94.4 in May and then 96.4 from July to September.

Based on his track record, it’s possible he secures a multi-year deal with an eight-figure salary. If teams are scared off by this year’s control woes and slight velo drop, perhaps he will be limited to one-year offers or he could try to get two years with an opt-out halfway through.

• Jason Adam (35)

It’s been quite a journey for Adam but he has finally made it to six years of service time. A late bloomer, he didn’t really break out until he his age-30 season, but he then went on to have several great campaigns.

Unfortunately, he is hitting the market at an unfortunate time. From 2022 to 2025, he threw 256 2/3 innings with a 2.07 ERA, 29.2% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate and 43.1% ground ball rate. This year, he missed almost three months with a shoulder strain and was limited to 34 1/3 innings. His 2.62 ERA doesn’t look bad but was mostly due to a fortunate .245 batting average on balls in play and 91.7% strand rate. His 15.5% strikeout rate was well shy of his previous benchmark and the 22.1% league average. He tossed 3 1/3 innings in the postseason without notching a strikeout.

Adam’s track record is strong but he will likely be limited to one-year offers because of his age, his recent injury and lack of punchouts this year.

• Paul Blackburn (33)

Blackburn has been a starter for most of his career. He opened the 2026 season in a long relief role for the Yankees. He may have earned a rotation role if some injuries popped up but the Yanks were relatively healthy for most of the year. Blackburn was kept in the bullpen, apart from two starts as an opener.

He slid from long relief to a more typical setup role as the season went along. In total, he tossed 85 innings with a 1.59 ERA. His 20.5% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk rate weren’t too impressive but he induced grounders on 54.7% of balls in play. He racked up a save and 11 holds before the season was done. He added another six innings in the postseason without allowing a run.

It wasn’t quite as dominant as the ERA would suggest. As mentioned, the strikeout and walk profile was middling. Blackburn also got help from a .230 BABIP and 88.9% strand rate. His 3.75 FIP and 3.92 SIERA don’t provide confidence for him keeping the ERA down. Even when he was pitching shorter stints in the second half, his 22.4% strikeout rate was only modestly better than his season-long rate. Even that slight uptick was offset by a 12.6% walk rate after the break. In his six scoreless playoff innings, he didn’t strike anyone out.

Caveats aside, an ERA under 2.00 is hard to ignore and Blackburn did well at limiting damage. Statcast pegged his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit rate in the 74th percentile or better. He could get a setup job somewhere but it’s also possible his past experience as a starter helps him. Steven Matz had a somewhat similar 2025 season and parlayed that into a two-year, $15MM deal with the Rays for 2026.

• Kevin Ginkel (33)

Ginkel just wrapped up a nice bounceback season. Over 2023 and 2024, he posted a 2.86 ERA in 135 1/3 innings. He struck out 27% of batters faced, limited walks to a 7% clip and induced grounders on 46.7% of balls in play. In the first of those two seasons, he added 11 2/3 scoreless innings as part of Arizona’s World Series run.

Last year was a step back. Right shoulder issues limited him to 25 2/3 innings with an awful 7.36 ERA, 24% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate. In 2026, he was mostly back in his previous form, tossing 67 2/3 innings. His 4.12 ERA doesn’t look too impressive but his 66.8% strand rate was to the unfortunate side. His 26.2% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate were back to his previous range. His 39.8% ground ball rate was his lowest since his 2019 debut but this year’s 3.50 FIP and 3.13 SIERA suggest he was pretty close to his 2023-24 performance.

Ginkel may be limited to one-year deals on account of his age and 2025 struggles. His 2026 was a nice return to form but more with the underlying numbers than the surface-level stats. His trajectory is somewhat similar to Andrew Kittredge. For Kittredge, injuries wiped out most of his 2023. He had a solid 2024 in his age-34 season and then secured a one-year, $10MM deal with a club option from the Orioles. Ginkel is younger than Kittredge was, but his walk-year ERA is higher than the 2.80 mark that Kittredge put up.

• Evan Phillips (32)

Speaking of bounceback years, Phillips is having a great one. From 2022 to 2024, he gave the Dodgers 179 frames with a 2.21 ERA, 29.6% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate and 42.6% ground ball rate. Tommy John surgery in May of 2025 wiped out most of that season. He hit free agency and signed a one-year, $6.5MM deal with the Dodgers while still recovering. He came off the IL in July and has essentially returned to form. He tossed 26 innings this year with a 3.46 ERA, 31.1% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 31.8% ground ball rate. He has made three scoreless appearances in the postseason so far.

Phillips isn’t closing for the Dodgers now because he’s behind Edwin Díaz and Tanner Scott on the bullpen chart but he does have previous experience. He saved 24 games for the Dodgers in 2023 and 18 more in 2024. He should be able to fit on almost any club, whether they need a closer or just an extra setup arm. A strong multi-year deal with an eight-figure salary feels attainable.

Specialists/Middle Relief

• Shawn Armstrong (36)

Armstrong was a free agent last winter and netted a one-year, $5.5MM deal with the Guardians. He missed a couple of months with a calf strain but threw 35 1/3 innings with a 4.58 ERA. His 22.1% strikeout rate and 42.7% ground ball rate were around average but he walked 12.3% of batters faced. It wasn’t a great season but he did notch eight holds and cracked Cleveland’s postseason roster. He has thrown 5 1/3 scoreless innings in the playoffs so far.

• Taylor Clarke (34)

The Diamondbacks gave Clarke a one-year deal with a $1.5MM guarantee last offseason. That was a nice investment, as he gave them 73 innings with a 2.96 ERA. His 15.6% strikeout rate was well below average but he filled up the strike zone and limited damage. He only walked 4.9% of batters faced. He induced grounders on 45% of balls in play. Statcast put his average exit velocity and hard hit rate in the 73rd and 78th percentile of qualified pitchers, respectively. He was credited with 14 holds for the Snakes. The low strikeout rate won’t help him with modern front offices but his overall performance should net him another major league deal and maybe even a bit of a raise.

• Enyel De Los Santos (31)

De Los Santos has bounced around the league in recent years, generally posting passable numbers. Dating back to the start of 2022, he has pitched for six different clubs, logging 320 1/3 innings in the process with a 4.19 ERA. His 23.8% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate in that time are around average. He was scooped up by Houston in August of last year after Atlanta let him go. The Astros then kept him around for 2026 with a $1.6MM salary. He posted a 4.79 ERA while earning five saves and ten holds. He should be able to get another major league deal with a similar salary to what he made this year.

• Pierce Johnson (36)

Johnson has a strong track record but is trending down. After a stint in Japan in 2019, he returned to North America and posted a strikeout rate above 30% from 2020 to 2023. That ticked down to 28.4% in 2024, 24.8% last year and 19.9% this year. He finished 2026 with a 4.62 ERA, his highest since his return from Japan, apart from his injury-marred 2022. He secured a $6.5MM deal last winter. He should have less earning power this time but his velocity mostly held steady and his reputation is good, so perhaps he can get another big league deal.

• Jakob Junis (34)

Junis has worked as a starter and long reliever in his career but his more of a traditional reliever lately. He just tossed 54 1/3 innings for the Rangers with a solid 3.64 ERA. His 16.2% strikeout rate was below par but his 7.7% walk rate and 41.6% ground ball rate were close to average. He did a good job limiting damage, as Statcast pegged his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit rate in the 72nd percentile or better among qualified pitchers. He continues to be effective but the low-strikeout, low-velo profile isn’t en vogue and his age doesn’t help him. Junis got a $4MM deal last winter and his earning power should be fairly comparable going into 2027.

• Andrew Kittredge (37)

Kittredge posted a 3.54 ERA this year, just barely higher than the 3.40 he had the year prior. But under the hood, things moved more drastically. His strikeout rate dropped from 30.8% to 18.7% and his ground ball rate dropped from 49.2% to 42.1%. His 3.81 SIERA this year was more than a run higher than last year’s 2.49. One year ago, Kittredge had enough appeal for the Orioles to send cash considerations to the Cubs just for the opportunity to trigger a $9MM club option. But at the 2026 deadline, he didn’t get moved despite the O’s selling other players. He should be able to secure another big league deal but at a salary well below this year’s.

• Jonathan Loáisiga (32)

Injuries limited Loáisiga to about 50 total big league innings from 2023 to 2025. He had to settle for a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks coming into 2026. That turned into a nice pick-up for the Snakes, as Loáisiga gave them 67 innings with a 2.42 ERA. His 18.4% strikeout rate was a few ticks shy of average but his 5% walk rate and 56.4% ground ball rate were both quite good. He got some help from a .270 BABIP and 76% strand rate. His 3.43 SIERA was a full run north of his ERA. Still, Loáisiga has good velo and a long track record of results as a groundballer. He should be able to get a big league deal this time.

• Jordan Romano (34)

Romano earned saves for both the Angels and Rockies this year but the results weren’t pretty. He finished the season with a 5.61 ERA. Pitching at Coors Field surely contributed to that but it doesn’t explain everything. Romano’s velocity is about four ticks below his peak. This year’s 25.5% strikeout rate was above league average but he also walked 12.4% of opponents. His 4.11 FIP and 4.01 SIERA suggest he was better than his ERA but still not great. A return to a closer’s role in Colorado is possible but he shouldn’t have a prominent role on a competitive team.

• Dennis Santana (31)

Santana has been up-and-down lately. He had a career ERA of 5.17 at the end of 2023. He posted a 3.89 ERA in 2024 and then 2.18 last year. He then posted a 5.56 ERA in 2026. Last year’s ERA was a mirage but he at least had a decent 22.2% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate. Those numbers ended up at 19.6% and 10% in 2026. He’ll be looking to bounce back in 2027. He was released by the Pirates this year but his past success was enough for him to finish the season with a spot on Arizona’s big league roster.

• John Schreiber (33)

Schreiber is going into free agency on a down note. From 2022 to 2025, he threw 227 1/3 innings with a 3.33 ERA, 24.7% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate and 47.1% ground ball rate. This year’s 3.28 ERA doesn’t look bad but his 16.3% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate were way off his norms. The Royals sold at the deadline but seemingly didn’t find a taker for Schreiber. He was placed on waivers in August. His reputation is strong enough that the Yanks claimed him. He had a 1.64 ERA after that claim with a tiny 9.3% strikeout rate in the small sample of 11 innings. He made $3.715MM in 2026 and may have to settle for less next year.

• Paul Sewald (37)

Sewald was once a lockdown closer. In 2026, he still racked up 24 saves but his performance was all over the place. It was his third straight year with an ERA in the mid-4.00s. With Arizona, he had an awful 6.23 ERA but good numbers under the hood and awful luck. He was put on waivers in August and landed with the Blue Jays. Then everything flipped. He had a 0.63 ERA, poor peripherals and great luck. The end result was 53 1/3 innings with a 4.73 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate. He got $1.5MM last winter and might have similar earning power this offseason.

Injured Wild Cards

• Pete Fairbanks (33)

Fairbanks was one of the better relievers in the league from 2020 to 2025. He signed a $13MM deal with the Marlins for 2026 but had the worst season of his career. Nerve issues in his throwing arm put him on the injured list multiple times and he posted a 6.31 ERA in 41 1/3 innings. It was reported in mid-September that he would require surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome, though he didn’t go under the knife until the following month. On October 2, he told Foul Territory that he still had not yet had the procedure but that it was scheduled for the following week.

It’s not known which version of TOS he was diagnosed with, so his timeline is unclear. He’ll be looking for a bounceback opportunity but might not sign until after the lockout when there’s more clarity on his health.

• Yimi García (36)

Garcia is in basically the same spot to Fairbanks but he should have a slight head-start on the recovery process as García underwent TOS surgery in August. From 2019 to 2025, he tossed 322 innings with a 3.58 ERA, 27.1% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. He should have opportunities based on his track record but his age and health will obviously impact his market.

• Brusdar Graterol (28)

Graterol was an effective setup arm for the Dodgers from 2020 to 2023. His big velocity didn’t translate into strikeouts but he was elite at generating ground balls. Injuries have wiped out essentially three whole seasons. He made just seven appearances in 2024 and then missed all of the two subsequent campaigns, mostly due to right shoulder issues. He underwent surgery in November of 2024. He began a rehab assignment in May of 2026 but that lasted just four appearances. He required back surgery in June. There haven’t been any updates on his status since then.

• Hunter Harvey (32)

From 2022 to 2024, Harvey tossed 150 2/3 innings with a 3.29 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 42.7% ground ball rate. A teres major strain and an adductor strain limited him to just 10 2/3 innings in 2025. The Cubs gave him a $6MM deal, hoping for a bounceback. Instead, he made just four appearances before hitting the IL with triceps inflammation. A stress reaction was discovered in May. He threw a bullpen in August, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, but he never came off the IL.

• Joe Jiménez (32)

Over 2022 and 2023, Jiménez threw 113 innings with a 3.27 ERA, 32% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate. That was impressive enough for Atlanta to give him a three-year, $26MM deal. The first year was basically more of the same, as Jiménez posted a 2.62 ERA in 2024 with a 29.6% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate. He had surgery in November of 2024 to address cartilage damage in his left knee. He had another procedure on that knee the following November. He spent the entire year on the IL, though he did make three minor league rehab appearances in September. It’s encouraging that Jiménez was back on the mound but he is a question mark after missing two entire seasons.

• Mark Leiter Jr. (36)

Leiter battled right hip issues this year and underwent season-ending surgery in July. He has generally posted strong peripherals but poor ERAs thanks to his BABIPs. That may be luck but it keeps happening, so it’s becoming harder to believe he’ll regress to league average. In 140 innings since the start of 2024, he has a 28.8% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate, which are all good numbers. But his .356 BABIP in that stretch was almost 70 points north of league average, pushing his ERA to 4.56. He was able to get $2.85MM from the A’s last winter but is now a year older and coming off the aforementioned hip surgery.

• Blake Treinen (39)

Treinen signed a two-year, $22MM deal with the Dodgers going into the 2025 season, despite his age and injury history. Over those two seasons, he logged 56 1/3 innings with a 4.47 ERA. His 25.9% strikeout rate was still above average but a drop from his previous levels. His 12.4% walk rate was a few ticks worse than average. He missed time due to forearm, elbow and shoulder issues. He finished this season on the IL due to that shoulder and hasn’t been on the Dodgers’ postseason roster. There’s a chance he could be activated later if the Dodgers stay alive.

Long Reliever/Swing Options

• Griffin Canning (31)

Canning posted a 3.77 ERA for the Mets in 2025 but his nice season was ended by an Achilles rupture. He was still recovering when the Padres gave him a $2.5MM deal for 2026. He was reinstated from the IL in May and struggled in the rotation. He was moved to a long relief role and fared better. He had a 6.97 ERA in his first 62 innings this year and a 2.70 ERA in his final 26 2/3 but there was some batted-ball and sequencing luck pushing those numbers apart. For the whole season, he threw 88 2/3 innings with a 22.3% strikeout rate, 10.5% walk rate, 46.9% ground ball rate, 5.68 ERA, 4.75 FIP and 4.20 SIERA.

• Aaron Civale (32)

The A’s gave Civale $6MM and a rotation job to start the season. He posted a 5.42 ERA and was designated for assignment in July. The Cubs traded for him and put him in a long relief role. He posted a 1.72 ERA the rest of the way. His true talent is somewhere in the middle. On the whole, he tossed 111 1/3 innings with a 4.20 ERA, 18.5% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate.

• Erick Fedde (34)

Fedde struggled in 2025, posting a 5.49 ERA. He had to settle for a $1.5MM deal with the White Sox. He bounced back with a 3.83 ERA, though that oversells him a bit. His 16.3% strikeout rate and 38.1% ground ball rate were subpar, while his 8.6% walk rate was around average. A .271 BABIP and 78% strand rate helped him out a lot, hence his 5.01 FIP and 4.76 SIERA. He officially made 15 starts and 18 relief appearances, though he was mostly pitching multiple innings regardless of when he entered.

• Cal Quantrill (32)

Quantrill had a 6.04 ERA in 2025 and had to settle for a minor league deal with the Rangers going into 2026. He eventually got a roster spot and had a good season, initially as a long reliever before getting a proper rotation role. He made 15 official starts and 17 relief appearances with a 2.86 ERA in 110 innings. His 5.6% walk rate was strong but his 18.3% strikeout rate a few ticks worse than average. A .239 BABIP and 77.6% strand rate helped him out. His 4.01 FIP and 4.25 SIERA are perhaps better baseline expectations for what he can provide. That’s still great return on investment for a minor league deal and he may have earned himself a major league gig for 2027 but a lat strain put him on the IL with a week left in the season, clouding his status somewhat.

• Trevor Richards (34)

Richards settled for a minor league deal with the Phillies coming into this year. He got called up in April and made two appearances before he was traded to the White Sox. He ended up logging 83 innings over 54 appearances on the year with a 3.69 ERA, 21.2% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate.

• Trevor Williams (35)

Williams has been a swingman for most of his career, with 179 starts and 55 relief appearances. He began 2026 recovering from an internal brace procedure. He came off the IL in July and pitched for the Nationals and Rangers down the stretch. He threw 28 2/3 innings over 15 appearances with a 3.14 ERA, 28.3% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 47.3% ground ball rate.

Player Options

• Ryan Helsley (32) ($14MM player option)

After a down year in 2025, Helsley signed a two-year, $28MM deal with the Orioles. The second year was a player option, giving Helsley the chance to return to the open market if he bounced back in 2026. There were some encouraging signs as he got some of his strikeouts back and cranked up his ground ball rate but his control wasn’t good and he made multiple trips to the IL with right elbow issues. He should stick with the O’s for 2027, collect the remaining $14MM and make another attempt for a bounceback.

• Emilio Pagán (36) ($10MM player option)

Pagán’s case is more borderline. He struggled early on and hit the IL with a hamstring strain. He was dominant after he came back. Before hitting the IL, he had a 6.43 ERA in 14 innings. After the IL stint, it was 28 2/3 innings with a 1.88 ERA. He got a lot of help from a .227 BABIP and 98.1% strand rate but he struck out 30.4% of batters faced and only walked 4.5%. His 3.38 FIP and 2.78 SIERA in that stretch suggest he would have been quite good even with neutral luck. Beating $10MM should be doable but his age won’t let him get too far past that number. Perhaps he would decide to stay in Cincinnati and skip the headache of the lockout.

Club Options

• Drew Anderson (33) ($10MM club option with no buyout)

Anderson spent 2022 to 2025 pitching in Asia. He was able to secure a $7MM deal with the Tigers for 2026. He started in a long relief role but got a rotation gig after Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize were traded at the deadline. On the whole, he tossed 108 innings with a 3.67 ERA, 25% strikeout rate, 9.4% walk rate and 48.4% ground ball rate. He had a 2.61 ERA as a starter and a 4.63 ERA as a reliever but those are misleading numbers. From the rotation, his 22.9% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate were lackluster. A .246 BABIP and 88.6% strand rate were the main reasons for his success. As a reliever, his 26.8% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate were far more impressive but his .313 BABIP was to the unlucky side. This is one of the most borderline option decisions of the year. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a more detailed look at Anderson earlier this week.

• Emmanuel Clase (29) ($10MM club option with $2MM buyout)

Clase would be a bargain at this price based on talent but he hasn’t pitched since July of 2025 due to a gambling/pitch-fixing investigation. It’s unknown if he’ll ever pitch in the majors again. He hasn’t been collecting salary since he was put on the restricted list. It’s unclear if the Guardians would have to pay the buyout if they turn down this option.

• Carlos Estévez (34) ($13MM club option with $2MM buyout)

This is an easy call for the Royals. Estévez only made one appearance this year and it wasn’t good. He allowed six earned runs in a third of an inning. He then landed on the IL and never came back. He had shoulder surgery in September and has an uncertain timeline. Even before this injury-marred year, his strikeout rate was trending down, going from 27.8% in 2023 to 23.6% and 20.1% in the next two seasons. He’ll be back in free agency soon. His market will depend on his surgery recovery.

• Kenley Jansen (39) ($12MM club option with $2MM buyout)

Jansen signed an $11MM deal with the Tigers last winter, in the form of a $9MM salary and $2MM buyout on a $12MM club option. It’s now a net $10MM decision for Detroit. Jansen had another good year, in a sense, posting a 3.20 ERA. However, it feels like he’s walking a tightrope, as he has had a BABIP below .200 in two straight years now. If some more balls find grass, things could turn quickly. He had a 4.46 FIP and 3.96 SIERA this year. The Tigers may want to move on but it’s also possible Jansen could be traded at this price point.

• Andrés Muñoz (28) ($9MM club option with no buyout)

Muñoz had a down year if you look at his 4.24 ERA. However, a big home run spike played a role in that. He allowed nine this year, after only allowing ten over the previous three seasons combined. His 37.1% strikeout rate was his best since 2022. His 10% walk rate was a bit above average but normal for him. His 49.6% ground ball rate was lower than his previous seasons but still better than average. His 3.34 FIP and 2.41 SIERA suggest he’s still a lockdown closer. A pitcher this good can get paid even coming off a down year. As mentioned earlier, Helsley got $28MM over two years with an opt-out. Muñoz is still a bargain at $9MM, especially since there’s another club option for 2028.

• Colin Rea (36) ($7.5MM club option with $1MM buyout)

Rea has been a solid swingman for four straight years now. This time a year ago, the Cubs were deciding on his club option but just worked out a new deal instead, giving him a slight bump on his guarantee. He went on to post a 4.34 ERA over 19 starts and 15 relief appearances, a pretty similar season to 2025. The deal feels about right for Rea’s value, so it’s a borderline call. The Cubs need arms and could bring him back. If they want to change things up, they could buy him out or perhaps trade him to another club.

• Antonio Senzatela (32) ($14MM club option with no buyout)

Senzatela’s deal was signed way back when he was a starter. He’s now a reliever and had a decent season, though it hasn’t trended in the right direction. He gave the Rockies 52 1/3 innings with a 3.61 ERA. He was traded to the Brewers and posted a 5.14 ERA after the deal, though he did crack Milwaukee’s playoff roster and has made two scoreless appearances so far. It’s been a good year but the option price is usually reserved for elite relievers. Senzatela doesn’t qualify as he only struck out 19.3% of opponents this year. He should be able to get a major league deal but with a salary lower than this.

• Ryne Stanek (35) ($6MM club option with $1MM buyout)

Stanek is basically the same pitcher he was a year ago. Despite strong velocity, his strikeout rates have always been good but not great, as his walk rates have been too high. This year, he had a 4.02 ERA. His 24.3% strikeout rate was just a bit above average but his 12% walk rate was a few ticks worse than par. He got a $3.5MM guarantee from the Cards last winter. Since his profile is the same but he’s a year older, his earning power should be about the same or slightly less. The option should therefore be bought out.

• Trevor Stephan (31) ($7.25MM club option with $1.25MM buyout)

Stephan put up some good numbers for the Guards from 2021-23. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2024 and he hasn’t been able to get back on track. In 2025-26, the Guardians kept him in the minors. He threw 48 2/3 innings on the farm in that time with a 9.99 ERA. His fastball averaged 92.8 mph in Triple-A this year, almost four miles below the 96.5 mph he averaged in 2022. Stephan is clearly going to be bought out.

• Robert Stephenson (34) ($2.5MM club option with no buyout)

The Angels gave Stephenson a three-year, $33MM deal going into 2024 but injuries basically wiped out that whole contract. He missed all of 2024, made ten appearances in 2025, and then missed all of 2026. The one upside for the Angels is that all the time missed unlocked this club option for them. But after so much missed time, they might prefer to just walk away. Stephenson had elbow surgery in April, a ligament and flexor repair surgery. It’s unknown what his expected timeline is from here.

• Jacob Webb (33) ($2.5MM club option with no buyout)

Webb continues to put up good results but the market keeps spitting on him. He has thrown 320 career innings with a 3.07 ERA, 23.6% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate and 36.6% ground ball rate. His 2026 numbers were all fairly close to that. The Orioles non-tendered him going into 2025 instead of paying Webb a projected $1.7MM arbitration salary. The Rangers scooped him up, got a good season out of him but wouldn’t pay him a projected $2MM arb salary for 2026. $2.5MM feels like a fine price for a guy with Webb’s skills but the precedent suggests he could be sent back to the market.

• Ryan Weiss (30) ($5MM club option with $500K buyout)

Weiss has a nice showing in the KBO over a couple of seasons and the Astros thought he could be a low-cost rotation upgrade for them. They gave him a $2.6MM guarantee to cross the Pacific and return to affiliated ball. It didn’t work out. Weiss posted a 7.62 ERA in 26 innings before being outrighted. He had a 5.42 ERA in Triple-A. General manager Dana Brown is now gone. It’s not exactly clear who will be making these decisions for the Astros but it should be an easy call to walk away from this option.

• Garrett Whitlock (31) ($8.25MM club option with $1MM buyout)

This is one of the easiest decisions, as the Sox will definitely pick this up. UCL surgery wiped out most of his 2024 but Whitlock has a 2.03 ERA in 124 1/3 innings since coming back. His strikeout, walk and ground ball rates are all better than average. He has 50 holds and five saves over the past two seasons. There’s another club option for 2028, which only enhances the appeal of picking this one up.

• Rowan Wick (34) ($800K club option with $100K buyout)

Wick had good seasons in Japan in 2024 and 2025 but required Tommy John surgery in November of 2025. The Giants signed him knowing he would miss all of 2026, hoping that Wick could help them in 2027. His health status is unclear. The option price is barely above this year’s league minimum. Next year’s league minimum is still to be determined. Unless Wick’s health outlook is worse than expected, the Giants will presumably pick this up as planned.

Minor League Deal/Reclamation Types

• Scott Barlow
• Carlos Carrasco
• Chris Devenski
• Luis García
• Tommy Kahnle
• Tyler Kinley
• Zack Littell
• Michael Lorenzen
• Germán Márquez
• Chris Martin
• Lance McCullers Jr.
• Miles Mikolas
• Chris Paddack
• Tanner Rainey
• Joe Ross
• Ryan Thompson
• Trent Thornton
• Justin Topa
• Lou Trivino
• José Urquidy
• Jacob Waguespack
• Taijuan Walker
• Jake Woodford

Photo courtesy of Brad Penner, Imagn Images

Guaranteed Contracts

• Konnor Griffin, SS: $134MM through 2032
• Bryan Reynolds, OF: $62MM through 2030 (includes buyout of 2031 club option)
• Mitch Keller, RHP: $38MM through 2028
• Ryan O’Hearn, 1B/OF: $15MM through 2027
• Luke Weaver, RHP: $11MM through 2027 (Mets paying $6MM)

Other Financial Commitments

• $1.5MM buyout on 2027 mutual option for DH Marcell Ozuna (released in August)

2027 financial commitments: $57.5MM
Total long-term commitments: $256.5MM through 2032

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

• Yohan Ramírez (4.135): $1.5MM
• Oneil Cruz (4.110): $6.3MM
• Carmen Mlodzinski (3.081): $1.6MM
• Jared Triolo (3.071): $1.8MM
• Endy Rodríguez (3.044): $1.2MM
• Henry Davis (3.039): $1.4MM
• Nick Gonzales (3.018): $3.1MM
• Jared Jones (3.000): $2.1MM
• Paul Skenes (3.000): $7.2MM
• Spencer Horwitz (2.152): $2.5MM
• Non-tender candidate: Triolo

Free Agents

• Brandon Lowe, Gregory Soto, Kirby Yates (retiring)

Although the Bucs once again fell shy of the playoffs, there were undeniable positive strides for the organization in 2026. An already strong rotation looks even more formidable following the performances from some key young arms. Konnor Griffin, the game’s top prospect, debuted at 19 years of age and held his own (but missed a good chunk of time on the injured list). The revolving door at catcher hasn’t necessarily halted but could be trending in that direction. And while an 82-80 record isn’t especially exciting in a vacuum, it marks an 11-game improvement over 2025 and stands as the Pirates’ first winning season since 2018 (when they also won 82 games).

Those trendlines, it seems, will be enough to get general manager Ben Cherington another crack at building the Pirates’ first postseason team since 2015. Cherington is under contract through the 2027 season, and while owner Bob Nutting hasn’t definitively declared he’ll finish that contract out, the GM himself indicated late in the season that all of his conversations with Nutting have focused on how they can improve the club for 2027 and beyond. Manager Don Kelly, meanwhile, was only in his first full season on the job in 2026. He’s expected back, too.

Much of Kelly’s roster in 2027 will look the same. Griffin will return at shortstop. Spencer Horwitz and Ryan O’Hearn will have first base and designated hitter covered. O’Hearn will probably see some time in the outfield corners, but the outfield has Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz and breakout slugger Esmerlyn Valdez, with former top prospect Jhostynxon Garcia still on the periphery of the group. Endy Rodriguez looked to be breaking out behind the plate before hip surgery ended his season. Nick Gonzales had a career-best season at the hot corner and can handle that position or slide over to second base, depending on what happens with the team’s most notable free agent: Brandon Lowe.

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This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• The Dodgers, Brewers, Guardians and Rays still being alive in the playoffs (1:55)
• The White Sox going into offseason mode (17:15)
• The Yankees going into offseason mode (27:50)
• The Padres going into offseason mode (45:10)
• The Braves going into offseason mode (52:55)

Check out our past episodes!

• Diamondbacks Stories, Offseason Previews For Eliminated Playoff Teams, And Creative Pitching Usage – listen here
• Wild Card Rosters And What’s Next For The Rangers, Diamondbacks, and Pirates – listen here
• Free Agent Power Rankings, Cade Cavalli’s Extension, And Likely Playoff Matchups – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Michael McLoone, Imagn Images

Before his half-decade run in Durham, Reith coached in the low levels of Tampa Bay’s system. The 48-year-old was a sixth-round pick by the Yankees back in 1996 but was traded to the Reds four years later as part of the trade that brought two-time All-Star pitcher Denny Neagle to the Bronx. Reith wound up pitching 127 2/3 innings with the Reds across parts of three seasons.

Although Reith never found much success in the majors as a pitcher, he comes to the Twins from one of the game’s most highly regarded organizations in terms of player development. Reith has actually coached three pitchers on the Twins’ 40-man roster — Taj Bradley, Eric Orze and (more briefly) Joe Ryan — during that trio’s time in the Rays system.

This will be Reith’s first stint on a major league coaching staff. He and Twins skipper Derek Shelton didn’t overlap on the coaching staff in Tampa Bay, but both were in the Rays organization at the same point in the mid 2010s (Shelton coaching on the big league staff, Reith down in Low-A). Even if the two didn’t work directly alongside one another, there’s surely some familiarity and a sense of philosophical alignment from those formative years in their coaching careers.

With the Twins, Reith will take over a staff that’s led by two quality veterans, Ryan and fellow righty Pablo López, the latter of whom will be returning from internal brace surgery. Bradley had a breakout showing in 2026 and is locked into a rotation spot in 2027. Veterans Dean Kremer and Bailey Ober are on hand as innings-eating options at the back of the staff, but Minnesota also has a bevy of recent top-100 prospects who’ve gotten their feet wet in the majors: Connor Prielipp, Zebby Matthews, Kendry Rojas and Mick Abel among them. Should Minnesota move either Kremer or Ober — both are due raises to nearly $7MM in their final season of club control — that would open the door for some of those younger arms to claim spots early in the year.

The bullpen scene is more fluid. Veteran Jeff Hoffman is the elder statesman in an otherwise young group that features young Andrew Morris, left-hander Kody Funderburk, veteran Tommy Nance and waiver gem Yoendrys Gómez (who was claimed out of the Rays organization but never pitched in Durham, where Reith was coaching).

In addition to moving on from Maki, the Twins also opted not to retain assistant pitching coach Luis Ramirez. A replacement for Ramirez has yet to be named, so it stands to reason that Reith will have some say in working with Shelton and general manager Jeremy Zoll to find an assistant in the weeks ahead.

There will be other changes on the staff. Bench coach Omar Lopez will not be back in that role but has been offered another position within the organization. Catching coach Tim Cossins, gameplan coordinator Tommy Kawamura, third base coach Tony Perezchica, assistant hitting coach Anthony Iapoce and assistant pitching coach Ethan Katz will all be replaced next season as well. Houston is retaining pitching coach Josh Miller, first base coach Dave Clark, field coordinator Jason Bell and hitting coach Victor Rodriguez.

Today’s announcement formalizes what had been the widespread expectation for months. The Astros won the American League West for the second time in Espada’s three years at the helm in 2026 but did so by default in what wound up being MLB’s weakest division. Houston’s 81-81 record is the worst ever for a team that qualified for MLB’s postseason, and the ‘Stros were swiftly toppled by the White Sox. Chicago topped Houston 6-3 in Game 1 of the Wild Card round and 7-3 in Game two, securing a two-game sweep in that best-of-three series.

Espada and GM Dana Brown entered the season in the final year of their contracts, and owner Jim Crane dismissed Brown back in August. At the time, he said Espada would remain in place until season’s end, but it’s felt like a dead-man-walking situation with Crane repeatedly being noncommittal about Espada’s future beyond the expiration of his contract.

Prior to being named the successor to retiring manager Dusty Baker, Espada spent six years as Houston’s bench coach, holding that title under both Baker and Hinch. He’s previously served as a third base coach, minor league hitting coach and minor league field coordinator in the Marlins system. Before moving into the coaching side of the game, Espada was a 1996 second-round draft pick by the Athletics who played nine minor league seasons as a middle infielder.

Though his time at the helm in Houston is coming to an unceremonious end, Espada was long viewed as a manager-in-waiting before getting the nod to run the ship in Houston. He has a strong reputation throughout the industry, as evidenced by the fact that he’s already been granted permission to interview for the managerial vacancy with the division-rival Mariners, who are seeking a new skipper after parting ways with Dan Wilson.

If not with the Mariners, Espada should find opportunities elsewhere. There’s no other current managerial opening after the Phillies signed Don Mattingly to a two-year deal earlier this morning, but other clubs looking for experienced coaches or a new voice in the player development sphere could turn to Espada. It’s also common for former managers to land special advisor roles in the front offices with new teams and hold that type of job until a new managerial or coaching opportunity arises elsewhere.

Turning to the coaches who’ve been dismissed, Katz, Iapoce and Cossins will last only one season in Houston. The 43-year-old Katz previously served as a minor league pitching coach with the Angels and Giants and assistant pitching coach with the Giants’ big league club before a five-year run as the White Sox’ pitching coach from 2021-25.

Iapoce, 53, has previously been the hitting coach for the Rangers and Cubs. He’s also held the title of senior hitting coordinator with the Red Sox and was most recently the Tigers’ Triple-A manager (2024) and major league first base coach (2025) before joining the Astros for the 2026 season.

Cossins, 56, spent seven years with the Orioles as their major league field coordinator and as a catching coach before joining Houston’s staff last November. He’d also managed and served as a catching instructor in the Marlins’ system and was a minor league field coordinator with the Cubs, too.

Perezchica, 60, spent two years as the Astros’ third base coach after an eight-year run in the same role with the Diamondbacks. He’d previously been a minor league manager in Arizona’s system and a minor league hitting coach with the Yankees.

Kawamura has spent more than a decade in the Astros system, first joining as a minor league coach in 2016 — just two years after graduating college (where he played four years at Willamette University). He’s worked as an advance scout for the Astros and joined the big league staff in 2023, Baker’s final season on the job. He’d previously interned with the Mets in the year between his college career and being hired full time by the Astros.

1. Fastball Freddy is back

Rays right-hander Freddy Peralta delivered an excellent performance to even the ALCS at a game apiece. He punched out six Guardians over six scoreless innings. Parker Messick was almost as good on the other side, but a Jose Ramirez error gave the Rays an early lead they wouldn’t give back. Peralta pushed his fastball usage above 70% in the outing. “That was probably the best that it’s been,” pitching coach Kyle Snyder said (h/t Will Sammon of The Athletic).

2. Baker does it again

Rays closer Bryan Baker tied current ALCS opponent Cade Smith for the league lead in saves during the regular season. He’s racked up four more saves in the playoffs. Baker needed just eight pitches to retire the Guardians in order on Tuesday. He has closed out every Rays playoff win so far, allowing a total of one baserunner. Here’s more on Baker’s emergence as one of the best relievers in the AL after coming over in a trade with the Orioles.

3. Ohtani playing on Wednesday

After some discussion that he might be benched, Shohei Ohtani will be in the lineup tonight in Game 3 of the NLCS. Ohtani’s slump at the plate continued on Monday with an 0-for-4 showing. He punched out two more times, bringing his strikeout rate to 29.2% in the postseason. He’s hitting .150 in six games. “He was adamant that he can help us,” manager Dave Roberts told reporters before Game 3 (h/t Andy McCullough of The Athletic). “He’s well enough to help us win a baseball game, so that’s all I needed to hear.”

Photo courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images

Bichette collected a $40MM signing bonus upfront and made $2MM in salary. The deal includes $42MM salaries for both 2027 and ’28. If Bichette opts out, he receives a $5MM buyout — though that would be deferred and paid in $1MM installments between 2036-40 (link via Mike Fitzpatrick of The Associated Press). It’s technically a two-year, $79MM decision, though the value of the buyout is reduced somewhat by the deferral.

Generally speaking, a player’s performance in the preceding season is the biggest factor in whether they exercise an opt-out. Bichette’s first year in Queens was a disappointment. He had a league average .260/.312/.390 slash line with 18 home runs across 696 plate appearances.

Public metrics were split on his first season at third base. Statcast graded him as a scratch defender; Defensive Runs Saved had him at eight runs below par, the sixth-worst mark at the position. Bichette made the routine plays — only Manny Machado and Alex Bregman had a higher fielding percentage among those with 500+ innings — but isn’t the rangiest defender and has a fringy arm for the left side of the infield.

FanGraphs valued Bichette’s season around two wins above replacement. Baseball Reference had him closer to one WAR. (The discrepancy comes mostly because the sites prioritize different defensive metrics.) In either case, Bichette performed like an average regular at best. That makes it a stretch that he’d walk away from the sixth-highest AAV in league history.

That said, Bichette wasn’t ready to tip his hand in the waning weeks of the regular season. He said in mid-September that he’d “make (the opt-out) decision when it comes” (link via Will Sammon of The Athletic). Maybe he simply didn’t feel it was right to say anything publicly while the season was ongoing, even if the Mets were long since out of contention. Still, ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote around the same time that it was a legitimate borderline call.

The case for opting out hinges mostly on the manner in which Bichette’s season played out. He started terribly, hitting .219/.275/.308 through the end of May. After June 1, he batted .284/.333/.439 in his final 438 plate appearances.

Bichette was 14 percentage points better than average offensively, by measure of wRC+, over the final four months of the season. Although that’s still not what the Mets had in mind, it’s a lot closer to his career baseline than to the first two months. Every player looks better if you exclude his worst stretches, of course, but his camp could plausibly argue that he was pressing early in the season before settling in over the final two-thirds of the year.

This is also the worst class for free agent hitters in recent memory. Many of the top bats (e.g. Randy Arozarena, Seiya Suzuki, Jake Bauers, Ty France) are corner players. There’s a solid second base group headlined by Brandon Lowe and Luis Arraez, but teams looking for left side infield help won’t have many options. Mauricio Dubón is probably the best available shortstop. The third base class is headlined by NPB slugger Teruaki Sato, who doesn’t have a strong defensive reputation, and drops precipitously to the likes of Alec Bohm and Luis Rengifo.

If Bichette were to opt out, he might command the biggest contract of any free agent hitter. The Phillies were reportedly willing to approach $200MM over seven years back in January. Bichette won’t turn 29 until March. A five- or six-year deal might still be on the table, and while it’d come with a significant drop in AAV, he’d handily beat the $79MM remaining on the Mets deal if he prioritized term and total guarantee this time around.

Arozarena, Suzuki, Lowe, Bauers and France are all into their early 30s. Sato will play next year at age 28 but has no track record against MLB pitching and similarly concerning strikeout rates in Japan as those that tanked Munetaka Murakami’s market last winter.

Perhaps the true x-factor is the second opt-out clause. Bichette could forego this out and bank another $42MM, hope for a better full season, and aim to retest the market at age 30. That’d be a tougher sell if he couldn’t opt out after next season and needed to wait until 31, when teams might really question his athleticism and overall longevity.

How does the MLBTR readership expect this to play out?

St. Louis has four catchers on the 40-man roster: Leo Bernal, Iván Herrera, Jimmy Crooks and Pedro Pagés. Top prospect Rainiel Rodriguez won’t need an offseason roster spot but has mashed his way to Double-A. There’s a chance he earns an MLB look next season at age 20. He’ll at the very least play his way to Triple-A and be on the radar for a 2028 promotion.

If Rodriguez were to make his debut next season, he’d likely be the second rookie catcher on the active roster. Bernal, who turns 23 in February, figures to break camp for the first time in his career. The Cardinals brought up the Panama native with September roster expansion. Bernal started 22 of the final 24 games, drawing 15 assignments behind the plate with seven more between first base and designated hitter. He made a strong first impression, batting .284 with five homers. Bernal scuffled a bit defensively, committing six errors, but most scouting reports feel he’ll be serviceable behind the plate.

It seems the Cardinals expect that to be the case next year. Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests the team would prefer to give Bernal the primary catching job in 2027. That makes it unlikely they’d seriously entertain trade conversations on him unless another team dangled an especially high-upside starting pitcher. A retooling St. Louis club almost certainly isn’t moving Rodriguez, who hit .328/.408/.591 as a 19-year-old in Double-A.

Where does that leave the other three players? If Bernal has jumped to the top of the depth chart, the Cards could shop any of their other MLB catchers. They’d find varying levels of interest in each, as all three players fill different roles at this stages of their careers.

Iván Herrera

Some teams probably view Herrera as an emergency catcher only. St. Louis gave him 52 starts behind the dish compared to 108 appearances at DH. Clubs that place a premium on catcher defense are unlikely to consider him a viable #1 option. Herrera’s receiving metrics are middle of the pack, but he may be the worst in the league at halting the running game.

Herrera ranked 79th among 94 catchers this season in average pop time (2.00 seconds flat) on throws to second base. He has both a relatively long exchange and below-average velocity, the latter potentially tied to a 2025 elbow injury that required postseason surgery. Herrera has only thrown out one baserunner in the last two years. (He technically has two caught stealing, but one was on a pickoff by Matthew Liberatore that resulted in a rundown in which Herrera recorded the out.) He’s 8-128 for his career.

Even with the defensive questions, Herrera should be a target for teams that have DH at-bats available and are looking for a righty bat. He’s a career .265/.362/.410 hitter in nearly 1500 trips to the dish. Herrera’s 2026 rate statistics were a little below his usual standard, thanks mostly to a dismal slump in July, but he gets on base and has hit 19 home runs in consecutive seasons. He’s particularly a force against left-handed pitching, running a career .260/.405/.418 line with the platoon advantage. Righty bats were at a premium at the deadline.

Herrera is entering his arbitration window. He’s controllable for three more seasons, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz forecasting him for a salary in the $5.5MM range. The Blue Jays, Mariners, Mets, Twins, Braves, Diamondbacks and Pirates are among the teams that struggled against southpaws and/or need more production out of the DH spot.

Jimmy Crooks

Crooks probably has the best chance of this trio to be an all-around #1 catcher. He hasn’t shown any signs of it at the major league level, however. The lefty-hitting Crooks has a .168/.231/.313 slash line in 195 career plate appearances. He’s already 25 and has seemingly been surpassed by a younger player in Bernal. If Crooks is going to get a true audition, it’ll probably need to come with another team.

The extent of other teams’ interest should come down to the evaluations of their respective pro scouting departments. Crooks rated as one of the top 10 prospects in the St. Louis system, according to Baseball America, in both 2025 and ’26. FanGraphs listed him among their top 100 overall minor league talents as recently as February.

Most scouting reports are bullish on Crooks’ defensive ability. There’s more question about the bat, especially his pure hitting ability, but he’s a .283/.371/.484 hitter at the Triple-A level. Crooks has two minor league option years remaining, so the Cardinals aren’t facing any roster pressure to move him, but they’re probably better served looking to swap him for a young pitcher. The Angels, Giants, Rangers, Phillies, Nationals and Athletics (if they trade Shea Langeliers) all have questions about their long-term future at the position.

Pedro Pagés

Pagés, who also has two options remaining, is the easiest evaluation of the three. He’s a 28-year-old who has a .229/.275/.354 line over parts of three seasons. Pagés is unlikely to ever reach base enough to be a first-division catcher. However, he’s a quality receiver with a plus arm who has thrown out an excellent 26% of base stealers in his career.

The former sixth-round pick is qualifying for arbitration for the first time as a Super Two player. Swartz projects him for a salary around $1.3MM. Pagés is likely to have a lengthy career as a backup/high-end third catcher. The Cardinals could keep him around as an experienced mentor to Bernal and Rodriguez, yet they may prefer to swap him for a depth starter or a middle reliever. The Yankees, D-Backs, Rangers, Twins, Phillies, White Sox and Astros need to address the backup catcher spot.

It’s not surprising that the Diamondbacks were involved. They were in the Wild Card race in the National League but were getting subpar production from both the first base position and the designated hitter spot. But in the end, they got outfielder Lars Nootbaar and didn’t properly address those two spots. The Yanks needed a lineup jolt with both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton on the injured list. They sent Yovanny Cruz, Jake Bird, Jack Cebert and Ben Grable to Washington to seal the deal.

Arizona continued to get limp production from first base and DH and just missed the playoffs. Those spots are still wide open going into 2027 and stand out as clear areas for the Snakes to improve before next season. Pavin Smith, Adrian Del Castillo, Tyler Locklear and Tim Tawa are still on the roster but no one in that group looks like a clear answer.

Smith has had some success in the past but he hit .183/.262/.294 in 2026. He made $2.25MM and will be due a modest raise in arbitration. The club may decide not to tender him a contract. Del Castillo hit .193/.246/.309 this year. Locklear hit well in 2026 but in a tiny sample of 15 games. His career line in the majors is .190/.275/.310. Tawa had a respectable season but should be bouncing around the diamond as a utility guy.

Arizona could look to free agency this offseason. Jake Bauers, Ty France, Joc Pederson and other bats will be available. However, owner Ken Kendrick has already stated that he expects payroll to go down next year. The front office may have to make some tough decisions about whether they dedicate resources to first base/DH or the pitching staff.

For the Yankees, their lineup proved to be fairly punchless when Judge was injured. They probably should be trying to hold onto a potent bat like García’s. He hit 30 home runs this year and slashed .277/.309/.521 for a wRC+ of 124. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a hefty $11MM salary in his final year of club control but that’s still a bargain rate if he can keep hitting like that.

There’s an argument for the Yankees to move on, as their first base/DH mix is a bit cluttered. Ben Rice will certainly be in one spot. Stanton would be in line for playing time if he’s healthy. He hasn’t been on the field much in recent years but has been productive when in the lineup. His contract has one more guaranteed season. There’s also Judge, who missed a lot of time this year and will celebrate his 35th birthday in April. It would be nice if he could DH from time to time to lower the strain on his body, with his deal running through 2031.

Moving García off first base could help but there’s not an amazing path there. He has lots of second base experience but was moved off that position because his defensive grades were poor. Once he was moved to first base, his bat improved. The Yanks have an opening since Jazz Chisholm Jr. is an impending free agent but moving García to the keystone runs the risk of him being a poor defender there while his offense also regresses.

The Yanks could consider third base but there counterarguments there as well. Ryan McMahon is signed for another season. The club could move on since he just had a poor season but García has no major league experience at the hot corner and his throwing arm has never rated well, even when he was on the left side of the diamond. He logged over 500 innings at shortstop in 2022 but Statcast put his arm strength in the 26th percentile of qualified players that year.

Maybe the trade block is the best place for García. Moving him could open up the roster a bit while addressing another area. Sherman speculates about a bullpen move, which makes sense with David Bednar, Paul Blackburn, Ryan Yarbrough, Michael Fulmer, John Schreiber and Tim Hill all heading to free agency.

As mentioned, Sherman floated Morillo as a target. Morillo just had a breakout year for the Snakes, tossing 64 1/3 innings with a 2.24 earned run average, 28% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate and 50.9% ground ball rate. He still has five years of club control remaining and hasn’t yet qualified for arbitration.

It would be a sensible swap for the Yankees but would be more questionable for the Diamondbacks. The Arizona bullpen was middling in 2026 and they are losing Jonathan Loáisiga, Kevin Ginkel, Taylor Clarke, Ryan Thompson, Derek Law, Dennis Santana and A.J. Puk to free agency. They need to add to their relief corps this winter. Swapping out Morillo would only increase that need. The deal would only make sense if they felt it was better to trade for García and then add to the bullpen in other ways, as opposed to just keeping Morillo and then adding a first baseman.

For now, it’s just a speculative fit but it could be instructive as the offseason kicks into a gear. Arizona still needs upgrades at the first base position and the Yankees have one who is currently an awkward fit in the Bronx. The fact that the Diamondbacks tried to get García just a few months ago is certainly noteworthy.

Photo courtesy of Vincent Carchietta, Imagn Images