Look Brett has big hands and if he touches a fighters chin they are in trouble. Will he be able to catch Fedor? Highly unlikely. The odds are Fedor -556 and Brett at +356 over at Intertops

I don’t think Brett has a chance if this fight gets on the ground. If you look at the Hong Man Choi fight you had a guy who had the length and size to cause Fedor problems, however, HMC has horrendous submission defense. The fight ended in Hong being armbarred inside 2 minutes, but Fedor’s face look decently damaged. Ok so take Brett Rogers as a guy who knows how to punch and hopefully doesn’t play on the ground in Fedor’s world, and you have a chance. A slim chance, but a chance. A puncher’s chance.

I can’t pick against Fedor here, but it would be incredible if Rogers can pull this off. Fedor via ankle lock, RNC, or knee bar , probably not by his goto armbar.

Jake Shields vs Jason Miller

Shields is a badass on the ground with good striking, but not great. Miller is almost the exact same fighter. With this fight I look to the Dream matchup of Miller vs Jacare where I thought Jason was winning the fight, but accidentally kneed Jacare when he was on the ground. Under DREAM rules kicking to the head is not allowed when the fighter is on the ground. Under PRIDE rules, it was fully allowed.
Here is the fight:

Is Jacare’s top game better than Jake Shields? I think so, but not incredibly so. Miller can escape it. So with Miller as a 2-1 underdog I like that as a bet against Shields in the middleweight championship.

Gergard Mousasi vs Rameau Thierry Sokodjou

Sokodjou hasn’t shown much since is KO of Ricardo Arona. He has been so hit or miss and Mousasi has been on such a hot streak against top competition. I see Gergard winning this easily on the feet and even more so if it goes to the mat. So even at -455 I still like Gergard Mousasi to win this one.

Fabricio Werdum vs Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva

Silva is too slow, but if Werdum makes a mistake, Silva has a shot. This is definitely Bigfoot’s best test so far. With Werdum favored -164 and Bigfoot at +125, I like Werdum @ -164.

Machida landed several flying knees to Shogun’s body, but it was under commentated as well.

Also while watching you could tell there was a definite bias for Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua from Goldberg and Rogan in this fight, but I have no complaints, the judges made the right call. The crowd was booing at the decision, but in the end Rua did not beat Machida in the ring, only in a leg kick contest.

Ask yourself did Shogun do enough to beat Machida and take the title?

If this fight was to go on, you could say Velasquez would have done the same thing again and eventually get a TKO or a decision, but I think it had all the makings of a classic UFC fight, and by classic, I mean early UFC, where the referees let a fight go on and let a fighter take damage. Because in the end, this is fighting after all. The fighters want it, this is what they train for. They don’t train to go through that kind of storm only to get stopped in an odd spot.

I feel bad for Ben Rothwell and this could have gone the same route as Cheik Kongo fight, but Rothwell knows how to escape which gives Rothwell an advantage that Kongo didn’t have. Kongo was not finished in their fight and imo, Rothwell wasn’t either. Mazagatti stopped it early, but Maz led himself down that path when he told Rothwell that he wasn’t going to let him take punches like that before the 2nd round started. Don’t create a bias before the event happens. Let the fight flow and decide when its time to decide, not before hand.

Alistair Overeem vs James Thompson

Many MMA fighters are smaller than they appear on tv. Not Alistair. The guy is big, I’ve stood next to him.
Plus he has James Thompson outclassed in this match.

Alistair at any odds

Zelg Galesic vs Kazushi Sakuraba

The Gracie killer, Sakuraba is just a little old now. Zelg recently lost to Jacare, and technically you could say that Zelg would be susceptible to another sub from Sakuraba.
Zelg Galesic is a mild favorite in this fight and that is probably due Sakuraba’s age and wear and tear.

I have to go with Galesic.

Marius Zaromskis vs Myeon Ho Bae

Zaromskis is coming off his last 2 fights where he ko’d two different guys in the same night with the same combo. I’m not familiar with Ho Bae, but Zaromskis is pretty bad as in bad ass.

I like Zaromskis to win even at -500…WHOA

Yoshiro Maeda vs Chase Beebe

Beebe is -140 favorite and that seems about right. This one could go either way. Beebe’s strong top game could still put him at a loss if Maeda rips off sub attempt after sub attempt. I could take Maeda here as a dog.

Eddie Alvarez vs Katsunori Kikuno

This is going to be a good one. Both fighters always bring excitement to the ring. However, I don’t think Kikuno has faced a fighter like Alvarez.

Alvarez favored at -500 and I think its fair, but the fight could end up being better than these odds say.

Some books don’t carry odds, but Sportsbook.com does carry odds for these fights.

I’m kind of surprised that the odds are this heavily tilted. I’m watching Inside MMA right now and they think its going to be an easy fight for Cain. Like I said before, if Cheik Kongo could have had some wrestling uploaded to his brain, I think Kongo wins his fight against Cain. Now you take Ben Rothwell a guy who actually can wrestle, although not as good as Cain in that department, but he is plenty good enough to stuff a staggered takedown, unlike Kongo. Although Rothwell is not as fluid as a striker as Kongo, Rothwell can strike and strike hard. Cain probably has a severe cardio advantange here and the reason for the heavy odds lean. However, I still think at this much of an underdog I like a Rothwell play here.

Josh Neer vs Gleison Tibau

I’m worried this is going to be boring fight and I’d avoid it as the odds have Tibau favored slightly and Neer about even. No point.

Joe Stevenson vs Spencer Fisher

At +200 Spencer Fisher is interesting. Stevenson is favored at Sportsbook.com -260. I like Spencer Fisher here in a decision win.

In Shogun’s last fight against Chuck I was kind of impressed. Shogun really trained for the fight and it showed. However, if he shows up like that it won’t matter. Machida is too much, too fast, too elusive.

I like Machida to win at any odds.

Cain Velasquez vs Ben Rothwell

If Cheick Kongo could wrestle even a little bit, he would have beaten Velasquez. Rothwell can wrestle and has spent his “mma life” training in Iowa where wrestling is second nature. However, Rothwell is not as fast as Kongo. Velasquez might have the speed advantage here, but Rothwell has the size. I’ll pick against Velasquez one more time here and take Rothwell in the underdog spot.

Gleison Tibau vs Josh Neer

A very interesting matchup. On the feet, Neer has, imo, a better chance to win. On the ground I think Tibau’s top game could make for a very long night for Neer.

I don’t see odds on this fight yet.

Joe Stevenson vs Spencer Fisher

Spencer is a in the pocket fighter while Stevenson likes to pick his spots. If Joe Stevenson slaps the guillotine on its over. Its almost cliche now, but I don’t think Fisher will be able to get out of it if caught. Fisher has had a shaky sprawl game over his career has been susceptible to takedowns. Advantage Joe. However, as far as striking goes, I think Spencer has a distinct edge. Joe’s chin hasn’t really been tested other than the BJ Penn fight and I think Spender Fisher will get quite a few licks in. We are about to find out how Stevenson does against another good boxer.

In an underdog role, I like Spencer Fisher

Anthony Johnson vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida

I’m really liking this card. Here you have the kickboxer against the Judoka in Yoshida. You might remember Yoshida’s last fight where he was clubbed KO by Josh Koshcheck. Chances of that happening again in this fight are VERY high. However, Johnson has a horrible sprawl and ground game. Yoshida if on top will finish this fight.

I think Johnson will likely win this one, but with odds, its worth a Yoshida play. Maybe he will get him on the ground before Johnson can lay the power on him?

Antoni Hardonk vs Pat Barry

This is going to be a kick boxing match and finally the UFC tosses Hardonk a fight that fits his style. Before the UFC threw wrestlers at Hardonk which ate him up and stalled out on the ground. They all lead to boring decisions. Now Pat Berry a tough kickboxer will SURELY not go to the ground and they will be cracking shins. Hardonk probably has the bigger legs in this bunch.

With this kickboxing bout’s odds at even, I’m going with the guy who studied under Ernesto Hoost – HARDONK.

Ryan Bader vs Eric Schafer

Bader will win a standup war against the ground hardened Schafer. Bader doesn’t want to go to the ground if he doesn’t have to. Bader possesses KO power on his feet and will likely TKO Schafer.

I like Ryan Bader here even with high odds

Yushin Okami vs Chael Sonnen

Wrestling/Dirty boxing/Clinchwork. These two guys are like each other’s cyborgs. They fight so similarly. Its going to be interesting if Okami’s legendary strength is going to play into this fight.

Okami is favored to win the fight and I lean that way as well.

Jorge Rivera vs Rob Kimmons

Kyle Kingsbury vs Razak Al-Hassan

Stefan Struve vs Chase Gormley

Cerrone a very good striker and ground player. Ben Henderson is a wrestling minded fighter with a tough chin, who is excellent at escape submissions.

This is a tough match to figure out. Cerrone and Henderson will end on the ground and I think if Henderson can avoid getting out struck, Henderson can stay on top of Cerrone and pound out a victory. I’ve seen Henderson fight some wars in the MFC and the guy is as tough as they come. Don’t let the nerdy glasses and long hair fool you.

The winner of this fight will face the current champion, Jaime Varner. The Cerrone / Varner fight was a really good one.

Usually the WEC cards are really lopsided in terms of talent between their favorites and their underdogs. This one is no different with many favorites at the -500 range+. However, these favorites are more likely to win than in other cards.

Bottomline: At +285, I like Ben Henderson here as a dog bet. This should be a great fight.

For the rest of the fight card, I would take the favorites across the board.

Well the new improved Vitor Belfort is kinda like the old Vitor Belfort. Remember he was fast and KO’d people in record time?

Rich Franklin has wide hooking punches that I think are a bad move when going against someone like Vitor who is a straight puncher. Every looping hook will probably be met with a hard straight combo. I think Rich probably has the advantage in cardio, ring control, mental toughness if the fight gets sloppy and drags on.

If the fight goes into the deep end then this is where Franklin will win. Vitor wins in the first or second round or doesn’t win the fight imo.

With Rich Franklin being a slight favorite I will go with Rich Franklin.

Mirko Cro Cop vs Junior Dos Santos

I want to know if Mirko Cro Cop will be able to land something devastating enough on Junior Dos Santos to capitalize on and finish the fight. I’m thinking no way no chance. The only thing I’m concerned about a Juinor Dos Santos pick, is that Dos Santos likes the range where Cro Cop can land one of his head kicks. Cro Cop is not enough of a dog to make it worthwhile for me. I’m picking Junior “Cigano” Dos Santos. Cro Cop hasn’t gone against a power puncher like Dos Santos before, I think its a problem for him. I’m going with Cigano!

Josh Koscheck vs Frank Trigg

This is why I love the UFC. Trigg vs Koscheck seems to me a great match on paper. Two great MMA wrestlers, with the striking edge probably going to Trigg, but the power edge going squarely into Koscheck’s corner. Koscheck loves the overhand right and he has clipped more than 1 before with it.

I think the younger faster fighter, Koscheck, will win, but I have a feeling Trigg will pull some crazy sub off. At +300 it might be worth a shot.

Tyson Griffin vs Hermes Franca

Facts: Hermes punches very hard (has KOs), has had cardio problems before, and good on the ground.
Facts: Tyson Griffin hasn’t been subbed, been knocked out, knocked anyont out before (that I’ve seen).

This one is going to the judges score card for certain.
Scenario one: Hermes lands lots of big power punches, Tyson gets his licks in as well, but the judges see the power punching and the constant moving forward of Franca as a win on the scorecards. 29-28 Franca.

Scenario two: Griffin, does his in and out peppering, gets takedowns, and maintains top control through most rounds. Hermes gets tired and goes into guard due to comfort, but can’t get any subs on Griffin because nobody can. 29-28 Griffin.

With the odds favoring Griffin heavily here, its worth a shot to take Hermes Franca.

Martin Kampmann vs Paul Daley

Interesting that Daley was brought in on short notice here due to Swick not being able to fight. Daley is a KO puncher who is very fast on the feet and has significant experience outside the UFC. Recently he has fought in Strikeforce and MFC. Daley has lost to guys who are good at submissions due to Daley’s lack of being able to get off his back. I could easily see this one going the way of another Kampmann head and arm choke. I’m taking Kampmann by sub.

Efrain Escudero vs Cole Miller

I’ve doubted Escudero before, but he appears to be a great student of the game. His wrestling is on point and he knows where not to be to avoid submission. I think Miller is going to be fine going to his back and I’m sure he has done a lot of training in that position for this fight. However, I don’t think Escudero is going to get subbed. Therefore the judges are going to give the smothering top game of Efrain Escudero the win over the active guard of Cole Miller. I’m hoping Cole wins though.

Rafael Dos Anjos vs Rob Emerson

Can’t write off Emerson. He has shown to be good in all areas and again really studying his craft and becoming that better fighter. Dos Anjos is a really great jiu jitsu player. His transitions are excellent and setups are fantastic. I think this is something that Emerson will have loads of trouble dealing with. I like Dos Anjos to win.

Tomas Drzwal vs Drew McFedries

Two punchers, someone is getting knocked out in this one. No pick.

Hmmm. Guillard is hard puncher that if he connects will give any fighter’s chin a serious earthquake. However, he is going up against a Diaz. They haven’t been knocked out and are great at avoiding damage even when they egg their opponents on to hit them causing openings to take advantage of. Guillard last took on Rich Clementi who is best on the ground. Clementi got the back of Guillard and RNC’d him rather easily. Guillard also fell prey to Josh Neer’s triangle choke when they met up. Lets just say Guillard’s ground game has been slacking in his televised fights. Bad news. He is going up against a great jiujitsu player in Nate Diaz. I’ve never picked against a Diaz brother, and this would be the wrong fight to start doing so.

Gray Maynard vs Roger Huerta

Now Diaz and Guillard might be the headline fight, but this fight really should be. Gray Maynard has been improving in every single fight so much so that I’ve been personally doubting his stand up for quite awhile only to be foolishly incorrect. Maynard’s wrestling is just flat out smothering. It doesn’t always look impressive, but his opponents have problems with his technique or strength not sure which.

Huerta has a huge heart, tough chin, and can dish it out in a punching war with the best of them. The only thing is that when Huerta has fought against upper tier opponents he went 1-1. Lets face it, that fight with Guida was close before getting caught, and Kenny Florian owned Huerta for all 3 rounds. I think UFC has babied Huerta actually, but Huerta is no slouch and I’m not even leaning that way. Depending on what the odds are, I like Gray Maynard to win due to superior wrestling, take downs, and punching power.

Carlos Condit vs Jake Ellenberger

Obviously Carlos Condit was the WEC welterweight champion before these weight classes were absorbed by the UFC. Condit’s game is to get the fight on the ground and wear down the fighter and look for a sub. Jake Ellenberger is an IFL fighter, remember that league? Condit’s last fight was a close one, but Martin Kampmann pulled it out in the end. Depending how badly Condit is favored, I would lean towards Ellenberger. If odds skew closer to even I like Condit.

Nate Quarry vs Tim Credeur

I don’t even think this one will be close. Credeur keeps his chin too high or at least he used to in the past. Bad thing for Credeur and good thing for the “Rock’s” hands. Nate Quarry.

Steve Cantwell vs Brian Stann

Third time is the charm? Stann won the first match, Cantwell won the second match and became the new middleweight champion. Luiz Cane actually made Cantwell look silly in his last fight. Stann equally looked silly in his fight with the Krzysztof “The Polish Experiment” Soszynski. I think Cantwell has the better overall game and he should take this win again.

Chris Wilson Vs. Mike Pyle

I don’t think Mike Pyle brings enough firepower to this fight. Chris Wilson.

CB Dollaway Vs. Dan Miller

CB looked very bad in his last fight and Miller has a better guillotine. CB has probably really trained against the guillo this time around. However, after the foolishness of the last fight Dollaway was in there is no way I can pick him. If CB can beat Dan Miller then he would earn my trust back as Dan Miller is a dangerous sub fighter. I like Dan Miller to win.

Sam Stout Vs. Phillipe Nover

Should be interesting. The tough Sam Stout is going to take this.

Jeremy Stephens Vs. Justin Buchholz

Hard to pick against Jeremy Stephens here. Buchholz is no pushover, but he is 1-2 against competition that is less than who Stephens has lost to. I yield to the harder puncher and more experienced UFC fighter – Stephens is my pick.

Randy Couture vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

I started out with this whole tribute and respectful paragraph about these two legends, but swiped it because these guys aren’t done yet. They are fighting and when they retire I’ll save it for then. I like Randy Couture in this fight because when was the last time he was subbed? Nog appears to not have aged in the mixed martial arts arena as well as Randy Couture has. Sherdog has done a nice piece titled, “How Much Longer.” Randy also made Mike Van Arsdale look silly at 38.

I then take a look at the two fighters cardio levels in their last few fights. Randy pushed and owned Tim Sylvia for 5 rounds, TKO Gonzaga in 3, and got TKO’d against a ridiculous weight advantaged Brock Lesnar.

Rodrigo lost to Mir in 2, Choked out Sylvia in 3 (but was getting blasted for all 3 rounds and The Maineiac made a dumb mistake), and won a controversial decision to Heath Herring. In all three of his fights the guy has looked very tired.

I think Couture has a solid advantage in this fight and I like him to win.

Keith Jardine vs Thiago Silva

Picking a Jardine fight is always difficult. The guy either gets KO’d or KO’s someone and there is never any rhyme or reason to it, due to is distinct fighting style. Will Thiago Silva be able to figure out how to get inside and work his own fists of fury? I’m leaning towards no. Silva just came off a devastating knockout at the hands of The Dragon, Lyoto Machida. Silva will be hungry and want to get revenge. This plays into Jardine’s style of short hooks on the inside and a very good take down defense. Once Silva gets frustrated. Jardine can open up with the leg kicks or catch a brother back pedaling.

At -145ish I like Jardine to win.

Chris Leben vs Jake Rosholt

Jake Rosholt is that top game wrestler who really doesn’t bring much else. I’ve seen him exhausted in previous WEC bouts. Leben is a bad match up for Rosholt imo, as he just keeps coming, has a chin to take any potential GnP, and Rosholt has a giant chin and that is a big bullseye for KO artist like Leben.

At -155, I love Leben in this fight.

Nate Marquardt vs Demian Maia

This is my most anticipated fight. I’m a big Maia fan. The guy employs jiu jitsu, like Anderson Silva strikes – poetically. Its a thing of beauty. Will Maia be able to handle the SO MUCH improved Marquardt striking barrages? Nate’s boxing has looked ridiculous (good) in his last few fights and Maia isn’t exactly a boxer. Both are blackbelts, but will Marquardt keep distance utilize his superior ranged skills? If Maia catches Nate one time, it could be over fast.

This is why I like Demian Maia at +130 in the dog role.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs Chris Tuchscherer

Don’t know Chris Tuchscherer. When an unknown faces a former heavyweight contender? I default to Gabriel Gonzaga here.

Brandon Vera vs Krzysztof Soszynski

I just hope Brandon doesn’t go to the ground to prove a point. He has said in several interviews and on Inside MMA that he doesn’t like that people don’t give his ground game respect. Brandon may even have a ground advantage in this fight, plus a wrestling advantage, and then throw in the vastly superior striking and I don’t see how Soszynski wins this fight. Vera has let down in several fights since his drop to light heavyweight, but it appears he has this cut now down and should be able to fight without that bothering him.

I like Brandon Vera to win in the favorite role at -170.

Ed Herman vs Aaron Simpson

Ed Herman in his backyard, against a top rated wrestler with his first time in the UFC? Yep I’m taking Simpson in the dog role. Herman is an emotional fighter and the pressure may mess with him. Simpson is certainly capable and seems like a reasonable play.

I like Aaron Simpson at +anything in this fight

Justin McCully vs Mike Russow

Now I remember where I saw Russow. Adrenaline MMA on HDNet fights. McCully has never been impressive except for one fight not too long ago where I thought he would get destroyed, but instead won a boring decision via “Lay N Pray.” Mike Russow is a big guy who happens to be a police officer. Russow appears to be favored more than 2-1.

I like Mike Russow to have a stand out performance here and outwrestle McCully.