Grice vs Gugerty fight

It looks like the odds swapped on this one with Grice moving to underdog. I like this play even more with Grice as a dog. I didn’t realize the height difference between the two, but Matt “mini-Couture” Grice will take Gugerty down all fight long and Gugerty will gladly go there to attempt his submissions. If Grice doesn’t get caught, the points add up in Grice’s favor.

Mir vs Lesnar fight

I’ve been watching UFC fights since UFC 1 and have seen every one of them since I was in college. Naturally I’ve seen all of Mir’s fights. After seeing Mir at the weigh ins, Mir is definitely in THE BEST shape he has ever looked coming into any fight before. I actually thought Lesnar had a massive size advantage before this fight, but it doesn’t appear to be as drastic.

With Mir coming into this fight in premiere shape, I would bet the plan is to avoid the early bull rush and look to submit Lesnar in the later rounds, rather than trying for an early submission while Brock is at full strength. Mir will have to avoid Lesnar by circling, punching, and angling off to his weak side. Take Lesnar into deep rounds wear the bull out and matador him by sinking a submission.

I know I’m out on a log by myself on this one now, but with the odds at some places being +200+ I think its a worth a shot. Remember, I called the Joe Warren upset over Kid Yamamoto. Which was and will be almost as shocking as this if Frank Mir wins.

Does the fact that Frank Mir coming into this fight in the best shape that I’ver seen really trump my previous analysis?

Technically no. However, as the odds spread and my biggest question (Frank Mir’s conditioning) answered. I now see large value in Frank Mir.

I’m changing my pick and taking the underdog, Frank Mir to win.

-I love the lock pick on Jon Jones. It shouldn’t be close.

-I still feel the same about the GSP/Alves fight, but Alves shorts were pretty cool.

-I still like my UNDERDOG longshot pick in Paulo Thiago beating Jon Fitch. Nobody is on board with this.

-I’m really liking the Danzig underdog pick.

-CB Dollaway looks like he is going to eat Tom Lawlor up. I don’t think this one is close. Second lock.

-Mark Coleman looked very sad at the weigh ins. Third lock of the night, Bonnar winning.

-I still stand by my Hendo/Bisping pick, but I think its probably the closest fight on the card next to the Danzig/Miller fight. I wouldn’t pay up for Henderson on this one.

-I still like the Stun Gun beating TJ Grant.

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Paulo Thiago, who is that you ask? He was the dude who KO’d Jon Fitch’s teammate Josh Koshcheck. Thiago a jiu-jitsu ace is taking on the consummate grinder, Jon Fitch. Nobody grinds opponents down better. For a quick second I was thinking Paulo Thiago is going to win this fight and then I remembered all the times Jon Fitch powered out of submissions. I don’t like the odds at all on this fight and think it should be closer. With the odds SO skewed, I would not mind putting something on Paulo Thiago actually as an insurance play on the rest of the card. Thiago is certainly capable. Ok screw it, I’ll do it and go against my instincts and utilize a good odds setup and pick Paulo Thiago.

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs Alan Belcher

I’m taking Akiyama. Just because.

Mark Coleman vs Stephen Bonnar

Coleman came into his last fight wrapped up like a mummy. Coleman is too old at this point and things like cardio levels are SO difficult to get back as you age. Coleman and his long time training partner Kevin Randleman demonstrated that in his last fight. I don’t think Bonnar is going to come in out of shape and I expect a win out of Stephen Bonnar.

Mac Danzig vs Jim Miller

Ok this might be the only fight where the underdog is interesting. Both fighters aren’t big, but Mac showed some nice boxing in his fight with Neer. Ultimately he fell into Neer’s triangle, but I think against a shorter fighter (Miller) Danzig doesn’t get caught in that. Is Jim Miller going to have the tenacity and takedown ability that Clay Guida had? No. Is Jim Miller going to stand and trade with Danzig. Yes. Both have good hands and I see this one going the distance. Its the closest fight match that I see and therefore I am avoiding.

Jon Jones vs Jake O’Brien

This is probably my favorite lock of the night. I like the favorite, Jon Jones.

Dong Hyun Kim vs TJ Grant

Dong Hyun Kim is one of my favorite fighters, so I am biased here in picking him to win. I will say this that Kim has a very dynamic grinder type style that frustrates people. Very very difficult to submit and 99% of Grant’s wins come from submissions. Grant gives up height here, so likely reach as well. The one gripe about Kim in the UFC has been his cardio. That may be related to him not traveling earlier enough to acclimate with the time and local conditions. Hopefully, he changes this here, as I’m picking Dong “Stun Gun” Hyun Kim to win.

Matt Grice vs Shanon Gugerty

Matt Grice should have won the fight with Veach. Yves Levigne has stopped fights before with less. Grice’s wrestling pedigree is excellent and even though he has had two losses in the UFC it is probably due to him not being completely focused. He splits his time between being a police officer and a fighter, so naturally his first UFC fights are going to be where he learns the most about what he needs to do to be ready. Gugerty is no push over, but I think Grice needs this win and will get it.

CB Dollaway vs Tom Lawlor

At the risk of sounding trite. CB Dollaway.

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Thiago Alves cuts about 30lbs to make fight weight and it would seem that this was what plagued him in his earlier fights. The weight cut affected his cardio, and carrying around so much muscle made him exhausted. From his more recent fights over the last two years, you can tell he has his weight cut plan down. Alves has started his last 5 fights in crisp fashion and hasn’t let up. Alves has definitely made huge strides in this department.

Georges St Pierre is without a doubt one of the top 3 most dynamic fighters in the world right now. I’ve said it before, Pierre, Silva (Anderson), and Machida; Soon you will be adding Jon Jones to that list as he has more fights under his belt.

Pierre has rarely been seen tired in a fight. The guy is a tremendous athlete. The cardio advantage has to goto Pierre even though Alves has improved in this category.

The Edge for Thiago Alves

• Size – The dude is large.
• Strength – Probably has an edge here too.
• Some would say leg kicks, but St-Pierre has equally good leg kicks, Alves probably throws more damaging ones.

The Edge for Georges St-Pierre

• Speed
• Reaction
• Wrestling – This is big factor. Alves has improved in this department markedly as he has beaten two highly respected wrestlers in Matt Hughes and Josh Koscheck.

The Pick
This is such a big fight because it either means GSP has beaten the best of an ultra stacked division or Thiago Alves emerges as a superstar by beating GSP at his best. What GSP has done so far is more impressive than Anderson Silva’s or Matt Hughes reign because the talent pool that these fighters had to go through is not as competitive as GSP’s list. Not to take anything away from Hughes’ or Silva’s accomplishments. GSP has beaten a better overall group and if he beats Alves it just becomes historical at that point.

As long as Alves doesn’t connect his hands to St-Pierre’s button, I think St Pierre will avoid some of the things that Alves recent opponents fell victim too. St-Pierre is likely to take Alves down and do what he did to BJ Penn. There are a select group of fighters who have proved they can change the fight at anytime with one strike and that fighter is Thiago Alves. However, I think GSP will have a game plan that involves taking TA down and holding him there. Utilizing wrestling to wear Thiago’s cardio down and dropping his elbows which have proven to be extremely under-reported.

I’m picking GSP to win.

The latest series of TUF (The Ultimate Fighters) coaches to battle will face off at UFC 100. Both one time light heavyweights will fight at Middleweight; their now respective home weight classes.

The Edge for Bisping

Bisping will have the edge in speed and variety of kicks. A former Thai boxing champion, Bisping has some excellent kicks and punches with a great ability to setup his combinations. Bisping is good in the clinch, but will likely avoid that spot with Henderson as that is Hendo’s specialty.

The Edge for Henderson

Henderson is an excellent wrestler, but you don’t see it that much. Henderson wrestled in the 1992 and 1996 Olympics in Greco Roman events. Henderson has proven to have knockout power and knows how to harness it. Based on previous fights of each fighter, I’d have to give the power edge to Henderson. Henderson has a very good top game and excellent at avoiding submissions aside from being RNC’d by Anderson Silva.

The Pick

I definitely see Bisping being more motivated for this fight than Henderson for two reasons.

1. Henderson is a legend and will be a nice notch on the belt.
2. Bisping had some dislike for Henderson, while Henderson seemed only mildly indifferent towards Bisping.

I guess Henderson with a victory over Bisping takes out a popular and dangerous fighter, but he has more to lose than Bisping here. Age is still a factor in this fight as well.

I have a strong feeling that this fight is going the distance. I don’t have a good feel for who is going to pull it out though. I lean towards a decision for Henderson as his top game will likely eat clock up and I don’t forsee a knockout happening. If it does happen, then I lean towards it happening in Henderson’s favor.

I have to go with my instincts and the favorite in this fight.

I’m picking Dan Henderson to win.

Both fighters have gone on to look ALOT better. Lesnar besting Randy Couture against the cage and on the feet with solid punching ability. Frank Mir also has had a nice win in his pocket when he beat Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Who was thought of as the #2 or #3 best heavyweight and had only lost 3 times in 9 years. Mir became the interim heavyweight champion. This bout will unify the true heavyweight belt that Lesnar holds and Mir’s belt he won from Nogueira when the UFC stripped Randy Couture’s and Nog won from his fight with Tim Sylvia.

Frank Mir looked incredible against Big Nog and he is going to have to do the same against Brock Lesnar. Lesnar is going to utilize that cage and drop Mir down. Then Lesnar is likely going to control the fight.

When Lesnar entered the cage his green experience on the mat showed. However, the guy is so competitive, that you have to expect that Lesnar has been training the ground game hardcore for this fight and he won’t make the same mistakes.

I think Mir would do better on his feet in this one. He has to avoid the bull rush and constantly circle then press hard. Randy Couture caught Brock with a couple of hooks to the head that seemed to stun Lesnar. Mir appears to punch harder and it could be a difference here, because Lesnar’s head is a gigantic target.

The question will be if Frank Mir brings his Nog fight conditioning to this one. Mir was once considered before his motorcycle accident to be a super talent and the future of the heavyweight division. However, Mir, and he has admitted this himself, hardly trained for fights even when he was the UFC champion. He was humbled and like I said, this fight could be great if he comes in at his best. If Mir beats Lesnar, he immediately has to be considered top 2-3 heavyweight depending on the Fedor/Barnett fight.

Strengths Lesnar

Size – have you seen this dude’s forearms?, Strength, Wrestling, Speed

Strengths for Mir

Jiu-Jitsu, Boxing, Kicking, Experience

With Brock Lesnar a -240 favorite vs Frank Mir a +190 at BetUS I have to take the safer play which is Lesnar via decision or TKO. Pick subject to change based on weigh ins.

Clay Guida vs Diego Sanchez

In the past I’ve seen Guida match up well with other fighters. In the Guida vs Diaz fight, Clay was able to utilize wrestling and score points and rabbit punch, while Nate was cool with going to his back. No damage, just scoring. In this fight I think Diego is not a great match for Clay. I think Diego is the better standup fighter, is faster, a little bigger, and will able to stop more takedowns. Any fight Guida or Sanchez are in are exciting as they both have very good cardio in nearly every fight they have been in.

I’m picking Diego Sanchez to win. The odds are creeping higher and higher as the fight date nears, so be careful it just doesn’t get too crazy.

Melvin Guillard vs Gleison Tibau

Tibau has proven to have a tough chin and great submissions. Guillard has proven to be a power puncher who is fast, but has poor cardio and poor submission defense. With Guillard going against a cerebral BJJ artist like Tibau I could see this ending by head and arm choke or a D’Arce.

I’m picking Tibau.

Nate Diaz vs Joe Stevenson

At first glance you could say this will go the same way as the Diaz vs Guida fight. Here is why it won’t. Nate complained after the loss that he was basically just being held and that Guida did little to 0 damage. Now that he has gone through a fight like that and lost, he won’t let that happen against Stevenson. I don’t know who has better takedowns Stevenson or Guida, but in the Octagon, Guida has shown to go for and complete the takedown many more times. So if you think about it, Nate is not likely going to be put on his back as much as he did in the Guida fight and that was a close one. If the same happens here, Diaz is likely to take the V. Plus from a boxing/reach perspective this matchup favors the taller-longer fighter.

I’m picking Diaz to win.

Chris Lytle vs Kevin Burns

I gotta say, I like Kevin Burns here. Kevin was impressive in his last few fights even though he lost his last fight against Anthony Rumble Johnson (which we picked right).

Lytle hasn’t shown to have that punching power he was once known for, is more eager to goto the ground, and is on the other side of the hill of aging. With Kevin Burns’ toughness, I think he can grind a win out.

For the TUF Finale fights:

DeMarques Johnson vs James Wilks

DeMarques Johnson at -350 I don’t think is the greatest play. At those odds, I like James Wilks. Wilks proved to be in shape, and have a variety of strikes most fighters lacked on the show.

Andre Winner vs Ross Pearson

I have no pick for this fight.

Nick Osipczak vs Frank Lester

If Frank learns to throw a right straight between the show and now, he could clip Nick rather easily and win this fight via TKO. From what I saw on the show, I would pick Nick. However, I’m going to guess that Lester worked on his boxing and will surprise with improved power and technique.

Cameron Dollar vs Jason Dent

From what was shown on the show, I like Jason Dent to win as long as the odds don’t get too skewed.

Kongo looks good and I still think the height and reach will be a problem for Velasquez.

The bad blood hype looked real between Hardy and Davis.

As in the Kongo fight the extra length of limbs with Saunders will present a problem for Swick and I can’t wait to see how Swick’s gameplan plays out in this fight.

UFC 99 airs live at 3pm Saturday June 13th 2009 from Germany.

What you are looking at here is two excellent punchers. One with good footwork (Franklin), one with worse footwork (Silva). One with KO power with every punch (Silva) and one with more of the boxer’s style (Franklin) which is the style that will take a fight to the later rounds.

In Pride, Silva was known for his thai plumb clinch and the way he would use his strength to pummel people with knees, snapdowns, and winging wide hooks.

Franklin will have a wrestling advantage and maybe the ground advantage all around.

With Franklin’s ability to circle (minus his Anderson Silva fights), I think Franklin will easily be able to strike and get out, gathering points, and taking a decision at -155.

BetED has Franklin at -135
5Dimes has Franklin at -140

Cain Velasquez vs Cheick Kongo

Kongo has shown to be susceptible to takedowns from good wrestlers such as Carmelo Marrero and Heath Herring (who was supposed to be in this fight). Cain is a former 2-Time All-American collegiate wrestler from Arizona State and a Junior College National Champ at Iowa Central Community College. He was a two time high school 5A state champ in Arizona. In MMA, Velasquez has also shown to have good hands as well. Kongo hasn’t faced a guy like this before who is good at doing both. On the surface it looks like trouble for Kongo. Taking the fight on short notice against a guy who has a distinct advantage over his skillset.

Has Kongo improved enough on his wrestling to handle what Cain brings? For some reason I think Kongo’s height will be a problem for Cain as well as Kongo’s reach.

I like Kongo here to give Velasquez his first loss in the UFC at +160 at Intertops.

Kongo is +165 at BetEd
5Dimes has Kongo at +165

Mike Swick vs Ben Saunders

Swick has had some problems when facing a guy his size or bigger, remember Yushin Okami? Ben Saunders is a tall guy at 6′2″, I know, I’ve stood next to him before and I’m 6′3″. He almost feels taller due to his thinness.

Swick is slightly shorter by 1 inch, not a big deal, but Saunder’s limbs are still an issue as his lankiness can cause problems.

Swick has shown to have serious speed and to capitalize on a situation when it matters. In the past few fights Swick had trouble with the weight cut, this likely won’t be a problem for this fight. I can see this one as highly likely to go the distance. If neither fighter can secure a takedown, you have to turn to striking and points. I think this is where Ben Saunder’s can take this fight. Lots of leg kicks, lots of jabs.

It is going to be a very good fight as they match up really well. Swick can win if he can take Saunder’s down, secure his points, rinse and repeat. While Saunder’s can win this by keeping Swick in his second and third range. There is some JKD reference for ya’ll.

I think Saunders is a decent Dog setup here at +175

BetEd has Saunders at +190
5Dimes has Saunders at +175

Marcus Davis vs Dan Hardy

Hardy has a height advantage in this fight. Similar to how Davis had trouble connecting against his fight with Mike Swick, he will have trouble against Hardy. Then you tack on the age factor and the European hype for Davis is literally one-two fights from everyone questioning Davis’ age and whether he should still be fighting. That is just how this sport is right now – its a shame. Hardy wins this one, I don’t know how, nor care, I see Davis having problems taking Hardy down and problems connecting with his head as well.

Dan Hardy is +175 in this fight and it looks like an opportunity.

BetEd has Hardy odds at +175
5Dimes has Hardy odds at +175

Spencer Fisher vs Caol Uno

Here we have Spencer Fisher, a veteran, taking a crusty veteran in Caol Uno. Uno is on his last fights, but showed great wrestling at his last Dream outing where he RNC’d Ishida. I would venture to guess this fight will go the distance with Fisher getting the better striking and eventually taking the deece (decision).

Spencer is -225 for this fight, but looks like victory in his future.

BetEd has Fisher at -210
5Dimes has Specner Fisher odds at -200

Mirko “Crocop” Fillopovic vs Mostapha Al Turk

Crocop has to have one of the best nicknames. It sounds more than what it means. He is a Croatian Cop – the name is literal, but the name elicits a terminatorish/robocop thought in my head.

Mostapha Al Turk will be a kicking bag for Crocop. As long as the odds don’t get too crazy come fight time. This one seems like a lock to me.

Crocop at -450 is not a value, but still looks worthwhile. I think Crocop is going to cause severe pain to Turk’s thighs.

BetEd has CroCop odds at -400
5Dimes has CroCop at -420

Denis Stojnic vs Stefan Struve

I really was impressed by Struve in his last fight. Not in a way that he the next best thing or anything, but the guy causes problems for people. He is really tall with limbs a mile long. Against a stocky guy like Stojnic I see Struve catching a sub and winning the fight.
At -130 I say guten morgan Struve.

BetEd odds are Struve at -130
5Dimes has Struve at -130