MMA Ground N' Pound

UFC 118: Penn vs. Edgar 2 Preview and Predictions

Tim — Sat, 28 Aug 2010 03:43:06 +0000

Much of the hype for UFC 118 surrounds the co-main event between former UFC heavyweight and light heavyweight champion Randy Couture, and former boxing champion James “Lights Out” Toney. However, the card features a number one contenders fight in the lightweight division, and is headlined by the lightweight championship rematch between Frankie Edgar and B.J. Penn. Edgar won a controversial unanimous decision at UFC 112, and Penn is looking to get his title back.

Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda: Both guys are on this card unexpectedly. Maia was scheduled to headline the upcoming UFC Fight Night 22 card against Alan Belcher, but when Belcher had to pull out with serious vision problems, the UFC shifted Maia to the main card of UFC 118 against Miranda. Maia is coming off the infamous unanimous decision loss to Anderson Silva at UFC 112. Luckily for Maia, more has been made about Silva’s antics during the fight than the obvious holes in his own game. Overall, Maia is 12-2 in his MMA career, and is 6-2 in the UFC. He’s a tremendous grappler, but the striking and wrestling aspects of his game still need work for him to compete against the very best in the middleweight divison. Like Maia, Miranda is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but he is nowhere near as accomplished on the ground as Maia. He’s 12-1 in his MMA career, and his win over David Loiseau at UFC 115 evened his UFC record up at 1-1. Miranda’s Muay Thai skills are solid and he is a much bigger threat on his feet than Maia is. The ground game obviously favors Maia, but Maia would be favored there against any middleweight the UFC has. The question is: Can he avoid taking too much damage on his feet to get the fight to the ground? I’ve been leaning towards Miranda most of the week, but I’m making a last minute change and going with Maia. He may sustain some damage, but he’ll eventually get the fight to the ground. From there, he’ll find a way to finish. Maia via submission in the 2nd.

Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis: Davis has dropped two of his past three fights, but is coming off a TKO victory over Jonathan Goulet at UFC 113. After losing to Melvin Guillard at The Ultimate Fighter 2 finale, Davis ran off six straight wins, but that streak stopped with a unanimous decision loss to Mike Swick at UFC 85. Wins over Paul Kelly and Chris Lytle followed, but then Davis dropped consecutive fights to Ben Saunders and Dan Hardy. He’s looked a little slower in his past few contests, and at 37, age may be beginning to catch up to Davis. Coming from a boxing background, Davis worked hard to improve his wrestling, but he’ll be overmatched on the ground in this one. Diaz is a Cesar Gracie brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and very slick with his transitions much like his older brother Nick. Diaz also uses his height and reach pretty well in his striking game. He isn’t quite the boxer his brother is, but he’s pretty solid as well. He should be able to keep Davis at distance with his jab, and if Diaz gets the fight to the ground, he can end it there too. I’m expecting this one to be a mostly striking affair, with Diaz getting the better of it most of the way. Diaz via unanimous decision.

Gray Maynard vs. Kenny Florian: This one will determine who is first to challenge the winner of the main event between B.J. Penn and Frankie Edgar. Maynard could have been the next challenger for Penn before UFC 112, and given his victory over Edgar head-to-head, it would’ve been hard to argue if he had been given the title shot. However, his string of decision victories wasn’t enough to prove that he deserved the next shot, so the UFC gave Edgar the fight instead. Edgar obviously made the most of his opportunity, now it’s up to Maynard to beat Florian to prove that he does indeed deserve a title shot. That won’t be an easy task. Florian is one of the most solid all-around fighters in the UFC’s lightweight division, combining solid and still improving striking with a good Jiu Jitsu game and improved wrestling skills. He beat former PRIDE star Takinori Gomi at UFC Fight Night 21, controlling the majority of the fight with his striking (specifically his jab) before ending the fight with a rear naked choke in the 3rd. He’s had two shots at the title, falling short against Sean Sherk at UFC 64 and again against B.J. Penn at UFC 101. Maynard is 9-0-1 in his MMA career, and has won his past seven fights. However, the last six of those win were via decision, and two of those were split decisions. Maynard was a three-time All American wrestler at Michigan State, and has improved his striking a great deal since entering the UFC. However, I think if he tries to strike with Florian he could be in for a long night. That’s not to say he wouldn’t have a shot, but the odds would shift significantly to Florian in that type of battle. Maynard needs to utilize his wrestling to control this fight, but Florian’s takedown defense has improved a great deal in recent fights. Also, Maynard has never been known as a great top control guy, perhaps giving Florian some opportunities for submissions from his guard. I think Florian is just too good for Maynard in this one. Florian via unanimous decision.

James Toney vs. Randy Couture: This is the co-main event of the evening. Toney is a highly decorated boxer, and actually still holds a belt in the heavyweight division from one of the Alphabet soup organizations. However, at 42 years old and looking like he just swallowed a basketball, it’s clear that Toney is far from his athletic peak at this stage of his career. Which pretty much explains why he is taking this fight in the first place. Boxing organizations realize he is shot as a fighter, and the only place willing to pay him a decent amount of money to fight is MMA, and the UFC specifically. Couture is no spring chicken either at 47 years old. However, he remains in top physical shape, and is coming off back-to-back wins over Mark Coleman and Brandon Vera. There’s not much analyzing that needs to be done for this fight. Toney needs to land a KO shot within the first minute of the fight or it will be over. Couture needs to avoid that shot, and he’ll get the win. There is no other way possible of Toney winning this fight. The safe money says that Couture takes him down within the first 15 seconds of the fight and submits him in short order, but I have a feeling Randy may try to throw a few leg kicks and introduce Toney to the world of a sport where you have to worry about other things besides punches. Then he’ll dump him on his head and finish him. Couture via….. whatever he wants in the 1st.

B.J. Penn vs. Frankie Edgar: This is a rematch from their fight at UFC 112, where Edgar won a unaimous decision with some puzzling scores. I personally scored the fight 48-47 Penn, and the majority of MMA writers agreed with me. The judges disagreed, with one judge even scoring the fight 50-45 Edgar. Edgar controlled much of the pace of the first contest, but not much else. Penn landed the more significant strikes, but the group of judges preferred activity over accomplishment in the first fight. Even though I thought Penn won the first fight, he didn’t look himself. He was slower and visably gassed during the fight. I don’t think it was so much Edgar’s pace as it was perhaps a lack of focus during Penn’s training camp and the heat in the outdoor venue the event took place in. Regardless, I expect Penn to come into this fight more focused and in better shape. There really isn’t much else he needs to do to reverse the outcome besides make sure there are different (and better) judges. Edgar is a tough figher with a lot of heart. He also posseses good boxing skills, solid wrestling and good cardio. He’s a good fighter. Penn, even as he begins the downside of his career, is still a great fighter. Penn via TKO in the 3rd.

Make sure to follow me on Twitter (@tim_bock) for live tweeting during UFC 118!!!!!

Bellator 25 Preview

Tim — Thu, 19 Aug 2010 03:39:33 +0000

While the UFC mulls over scheduling another Chicago event in the first few months of 2011, the Chicago-based Bellator promotion comes to the Chicago Theater tomorrow night. Scheduled for the evening are opening-round bouts in both the heavyweight and women’s 115lb tournaments, as well as fights featuring some recognizable figures to area fight fans.

Among the highlights:

UFC and WEC veteran Shonie Carter makes his return to the Chicago area as he takes on Torrance Taylor. Both fighters enter the fight on a losing streak. Carter has dropped three consecutive fights and is just 2-6 in his last eight contests. His overall record stands at 49-22, and he holds notable wins over Jason Macdonald, Jess Liaudin, Matt Serra and Chris Lytle. None of those wins have come since 2005, and at 38 years old, he’s a long way from even being competitive in today’s MMA. Taylor has dropped 3 of his last four fights, and holds a less than impressive 8-7 career record. He has a win over former UFC fighter Jason Dent, but Taylor has done little to impress over his five-year career. Carter is basically just being brought in to sell a few tickets and create a little buzz, but hopefully he has a little left in the tank to get a win in his hometown.

Also on the undercard is area native John Kolosci, who will take on the undefeated Kenny Robertson. Kolosci, a member of the cast for the 6th season of The Ultimate Fighter, recently finished UFC veteran Luigi Fiorvanti under a minute into their fight at Hoosier FC 4. The win was the biggest in Kolosci’s career, and likely helped himto earn the fight on this card. Robertson is 9-0 in his young career, with 6 of those wins coming via submission. His biggest win to-date was against fellow Bellator fighter Herbert “Whisper” Goodman back in 2008. Kolosci badly needs a win here to follow-up on the win over Fiorvanti, but he’ll have a tough fight on his hands with Robertson.

Also on the undercard is a fight between the tough Dan Hornbuckle and UFC castoff Brad Blackburn. Hornbuckle last fought at Bellator 22, where he was dominated by Ben Askren for three rounds. He hung in there tough against the top prospect though, and is an impressive 21-3 in his career. He had victories over Nick Thompson and Akihiro Gono while he fought World Victory Road in Japan, and is a very solid welterweight. Blackburn won his first three fights in the UFC, but dropped his last two fights to Amir Sadollah and DaMarques Johnson before getting cut by the promotion. His overall record is a less than impressive 15-11, but he’s won five of his past eight bouts. At 33 years old, Blackburn is a long-shot to make a return to the UFC, but a win over Hornbuckle here would definitely help his cause. I think Hornbuckle will be too much for the former IFL standout however.

In the opening-round of the heavyweight tournament, Damian Grabowski will take on Scott Barrett, and Cole Konrad will take on Rogent Lloret. Grabowski is 12-0 in his career, with all of his fights taking place in Europe. Grabowski will likely be a decent draw with the Polish community in Chicago, which is probably part of the reason he was scheduled to fight in Chicago. He’s a decently regarded heavyweight, and a possible dark horse candidate in the tournament. Barrett is 10-1 in his career, last fighting at Bellator 19 in May, where he won via TKO over Ty Lee in the first round.

Konrad is one of the favorites in the tournament, largely due to his wrestling background. Konrad won the NCAA title in both 2006 and 2007 at the University of Minnesota, and won a gold medal in the Pan-Am games in 2005 as well. He trains with UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar at the Minnesota Martial Arts Academy, and at only 26 years old, Konrad has a bright future ahead of him. He’s 4-0 in his MMA career so far, and is 2-0 in Bellator. He’ll have to be aware of the ground skills of Lloret, a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. Lloret is 9-1 in his career, with his lone loss coming to UFC light heavyweight Jared Hamman. In my opinion, though Konrad still has a lot to learn in MMA, he is the favorite to win the tournament. He should impress tomorrow night.

The Bellator 115lb women’s tournament will also begin tomorrow night, as Jessica Pene will face Zoila Frausto in opening-round action. Frausto is one of the top-ranked women at 125 lbs, and she’s making the cut to 115 to participate in this tournament. She’s 7-1 in her MMA career, with the lone loss coming to Strikeforce’s Meisha Tate. Pene is 7-0 in her MMA career, and has a win over Tammie Schneider at Bellator 5 on her resume.

Tickets are still available for this great event, and you can also catch all the action on tape delay on Comcast Sports Net her in Chicago. Check your local listings for times in your area.

UFC Heavyweight Shane Carwin Linked to Convicted Pharmacist in Steroid Case

Tim — Sat, 14 Aug 2010 20:52:23 +0000

According to a report on Alabama Live, former UFC interim heavyweight champion Shane Carwin was a recipient of steroids from supervising pharmacist J. Michael Bennett, who was sentenced Friday to a four-year prison term after being convicted of “participating in a nationwide conspiracy to illegally sell anabolic steroids.”

From the report:

Prosecutors referred to Bennett, 44, and the others in a sentencing memorandum as a “drug dealers in lab coats.” They contended that Bennett played a key role in an enterprise involving rogue doctors and health clinics across the country who used the compounding pharmacy to supply healthy adults with dangerous steroids.

Some of those substances were veterinary drugs approved only for use in livestock.

“These are steroids for horses and cows, not for young people and humans,” Assistant U.S. Attorney Donna Dobbins said.

According to court records, Applied Pharmacy Services shipped 762,388 dosages to 17 doctors and clinics from April 4, 2004, until Aug. 30, 2006. The U.S. Attorney’s Office in Mobile contends that does not include many other doctors and clinics that they say participated in the conspiracy.

Those performance-enhancing drugs ended up in the hands of users ranging from professional athletes to teenagers looking to build body mass. Prosecutors cited 22 professional athletes who obtained steroids from Applied Pharmacy Services during the time Bennett worked there.

Carwin was among seven athletes who Dobbins named in court as being recpients of steroids with Bennett’s signature. Other athletes named include professional wrestler Kurt Angle as well as former WWE wrestler Bob Howard, a.k.a. Bob Holly.

According to this chart from the sentencing memorandum, a “professional fighter” with the initials “S.C.” received “Trenbolone, Testosterone, Stanozolol injectable, and nandrolone” between January and August 2006.

Carwin has not yet commented on the story, but is expected to issue a statement later today.

UFC 117 Preview and Predictions

Tim — Fri, 06 Aug 2010 04:54:47 +0000

The coverage for UFC 117 has been dominated by Chael Sonnen and his lunacy, but the rest of the card is pretty stacked as well. There are two #1 contender fights (Fitch vs. Alves and Nelson vs. Dos Santos) as well as a pretty intriguing welterweight fight between Matt Hughes and Ricardo Almeida.

Clay Guida vs. Rafael dos Anjos: Guida is continuing in his quest to stay relevant in the UFC’s welterweight division after back-to-back losses to Diego Sanchez and Kenny Florian knocked him down the ladder. He rebounded with a submission win over Shannon Gugerty at UFC Live: Vera vs. Jones, and now takes on dos Anjos, the winner of three consecutive fights. Dos Anjos began his UFC career with back-to-back losses to Jeremy Stephens and Tyson Griffin, but was able to avoid the dreaded “You’re cut” phone call from Joe Silva, and has since rattled off victories over Rob Emerson, Kyle Bradley, and most recently, Terry Etim at UFC 112. Guida is primarily a wrestler, as his stand-up really hasn’t improved much since he entered the UFC. Meanwhile, dos Anjos mixes in decent boxing skills with good leg kicks to go along with his black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. I think that Guida is in for a rough night against dos Anjos. His striking is still so rudimentary that even an average striker like dos Anjos can pick him apart. He won’t find too much safe haven on the ground either, as dos Anjos grappling skills are good enough to make Guida rethink his strategy. In the end, dos Anjos will pepper Guida with leg kicks and will avoid damage on the ground to win. Dos Anjos via unanimous decision.

Matt Hughes vs. Ricardo Almeida: In an intriguing welterweight contest, a clearly declining Matt Hughes will take on Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt Ricardo Almeida. Hughes is coming off a less-than-impressive TKO win over Renzo Gracie at UFC 112. He looked slow and old in the first round, but was able to batter on an even slower and older opponent throughout the final two rounds before the fight was mercifully stopped. The win improved Hughes’ overall record to 44-7, but he’s just 3-3 in his past 6 fights. In contrast, Almeida has won his last three contests, winning unanimous decisions over Matt Horwich and Kendall Grove, and most recently defeating Matt Brown via submission at UFC 111. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under Renzo Gracie, and an accomplished submission grappler. At this point in their careers, Almeida is probably more likely to take down Hughes than the other way around, which is a stunning statement to make about a fight involving Hughes. Hughes has never been more than an average striker, but the decline in the explosiveness and quickness in his shot was rather alarming against Gracie. Maybe the outdoor facility and the heat played a part in him looking so slow, or maybe…he’s just slowing down. Almeida is the much fresher of the two, and has the more well-rounded game at this point in their careers. Almeida via submission in the 2nd.

Junior Dos Santos vs. Roy Nelson: The winner of this fight will get the first crack at the winner of the Brock Lesnar/Cain Velasquez title fight at UFC 121. Dos Santos has made a quick rise through the UFC’s heavyweight division, debuting with a vicious knockout victory over Fedor-slayer Fabricio Werdum at UFC 90. Since then, the Brazilian has rattled off victories over Stefan Struve, Mirko Cro Cop, Gilbert Yvel, and most recently, Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC Live: Vera vs. Jones. None of those fights reached the final bell. He’s 11-1 overall in his career. Nelson is the more experienced of the two with a career record of 15-4. He’s a former IFL heavyweight champion, and the winner of season 10 of The Ultimate Fighter. Nelson knocked out Brendan Schaub in under four minutes in the finale of the show, and followed that up with an opening-minute knockout of Struve at UFC Fight Night 21. He’s actually better known for his grappling ability, as he is a black belt under Renzo Gracie. He’s fought top competition before, losing to Ben Rothwell, Andrei Arlovski and Jeff Monson during his career. The ground game is a big question mark in this fight, as we really haven’t seen much of Dos Santos’ ground game. However, I don’t think it will matter. In my opinion, Dos Santos is a top-3 heavyweight in the UFC, and Nelson, well he just isn’t. He’s a threat to win this fight due to his grappling ability and his power, but I think the far more likely scenario is dos Santos battering him all night long. Nelson’s cardio has never been the greatest, and constant pressure and damage from dos Santos is going to zap whatever energy he’ll have in his takeddown attempts pretty quickly. Dos Santos will get the win and the shot at the belt. Dos Santos via unanimous decision.

Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves: If you think you’ve seen this fight before, you have. The two battled previously at UFC Fight Night 5 where Fitch won via TKO in the 2nd round. Since that fight, each fighter has only one loss. Fitch lost to Georges St. Pierre in his title shot at UFC 87, and Alves’ lost his shot at GSP at UFC 100. Dana White has recently said that the winner of this fight will get the next shot at the winner of GSP/Koscheck in December, though I think it’s still possible for Jake Shields to jump the winner with an impressive performance over Martin Kampmann at UFC 121. Fitch is 22-3 in his MMA career, and has used his wrestling to grind out decisions over opponents. He hasn’t finished a fighter since submitting Roan Carneiro back in 2007. His style isn’t flashy, but it works for him. Alves has won seven of his last eight fights since his loss to Fitch, and in contrast to Fitch’s grind-it-out style, Alves has finished five of those seven victims before the final bell. He has improved a great deal since that loss to Fitch. Alves’ takedown defense is very good (the St. Pierre fight excluded), and Fitch is nowhere near the MMA wrestler that GSP Is. The longer he can keep the fight standing, the better it is for Alves. Fitch will use his size advantage to try and wear Alves down against the cage and with takedown attempts, but I think Alves is going to do everything he can to avoid those situations. Alves hasn’t fought in over a year, which may make his conditioning and ring rust a factor, but I think he has the advantage in this fight.Fitch just isn’t explosive enough to take Alves down at will, and he’s not good enough standing to avoid damage for the entire fight. Expect Alves to fend off the majority of Fitch’s takedown attempts and to win the standing battle en route to a victory. Alves via unanimous decision.

Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen: Sonnen’s incessant trash talk has turned this otherwise lopsided looking title fight into an intriguing contest, but he has made himself look like an idiot more than anything else. Silva is the most dominant champion in UFC history, rattling off 6 consecutive title defenses, and 11 straight wins in the UFC overall. He really hasn’t been tested in any of those contests, besides perhaps the first round of his fight with Dan Henderson at UFC 83 where he subsequently submited Henderson in the 2nd. His striking, agility and footwork are basically unrivaled in MMA, and he is a pretty talented grappler as well. Sonnen is coming off consecutive dominant performances over Yushin Okami and Nate Marquardt, and is 3-1 in the UFC overall with a quick submission loss to Demian Maia being the only blemish on his record. He’s lost 10 times in his MMA career, and seven of those have come via submission. Sonnen is a very talented wrestler, with a Greco-Roman background. He used those wrestling skills to physically manhandle Okami and Marquardt, but neither of those guys are Silva’s caliber standing or on the ground. Silva has been taken down a few times in the UFC, but no opponent has really been able to accomplish much off of those takedowns. Henderson was able to control him for much of the round, but really didn’t do much damage.

I’m expecting Sonnen to be able to take Silva down at some point in the fight, but I’m not sure how much damage he can really do there given Silva’s submission skills and the obvious holes in Sonnen’s submission defense game. Sonnen’s only real shot is to take down Silva each round and control him throughout each round, but the likelyhood of him doing that is…well…just not very likely. Remember, each round begins with the fighters standing, and that’s where Sonnen will run into major problems. I, for one, am looking forward to this fight being over with so I can stop listening to Sonnen’s lunatic ramblings, and I think Silva will oblige me by making quick work of the Oregonian. Sonnen may be able to last a round or so, but eventually the vastly superior skill set of Silva will win out. Silva via TKO in the 2nd.

Preliminary Card Predictions:

Dustin Hazelett over Rick Story via 2nd round submission

Phil Davis over Rodney Wallace via 1st round TKO

Tim Boetsch over Todd Brown via unanimous decision

Johny Hendricks over Charlie Brenneman via 2nd round TKO

Stefan Struve over Christian Morecraft via 1st round TKO

Ben Saunders over Dennis Hallman via 2nd round TKO

UFC Live: Jones vs. Matyushenko Preview and Predictions

Tim — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 04:43:14 +0000

The UFC returns to Versus for their second event on the network. Jon Jones headlined the first UFC show on the network, and after making quick work of Brandon Vera on that night, Jones returns main event status as he takes on veteran Vladimir Matyushenko. The co-main event features Yushin Okami against Mark Munoz.

Tyson Griffin vs. Takanori Gomi: Gomi made his long-awaited UFC debut against Kenny Florian at UFC Fight Night 21, but looked like a shell of the fighter who dominated the lightweight division in PRIDE for so long. He was outclassed from bell to bell by Florian, who eventually finished the fight with a rear-naked choke in the third round. The loss was Gomi’s third loss in his last five fights. Gomi was scheduled to fight Joe Stevenson, but an injury to Stevenson forced him off the card. Griffin stepped in on short notice. Griffin is coming off a split-decision loss to Evan Dunham at UFC 115, but still sports an impressive 8-3 record in the UFC. During his UFC tenure, Griffin has beaten the likes of Hermes Franca, Clay Guida, Marcus Aurelio, and Gleison Tibau, and also defeated Urijah Faber prior to his UFC debut. Griffin is a solid wrestler with good kickboxing, though he doesn’t possess true knockout power. His fights are always exciting, and he sets a fast pace. Gomi would win this fight if he was in his prime, but unfortunately, I think he’s nearly done as a fighter. If Griffin decides to get in a slugfest with Gomi, he could definitely get knocked out. However, I think Griffin will utilize his wrestling more than he has in recent fights, and that will get him the decision victory. Griffin via unanimous decision.

John Howard vs. Jake Ellenberger: Howard has begun his UFC career in style, winning his first four fights, his last two by knockout. He made his debut at UFC 94, defeating Chris Wilson via split decision. He followed that up with another split decision win over Tamdan McCrory at UFC 101, before knocking out Dennis Hallman at the Ultimate Fighter 10 finale (a fight he was losing until the final seconds) and over Daniel Roberts at the first UFC Live event. Ellenberger made his UFC debut at UFC Fight Night 19, where he nearly scored a big upset over Carlos Condit but ended up dropping a close split decision. He followed up that performance with a 2nd round TKO over Mike Pyle at UFC 108. Howard is a pretty well rounded fighter, combining solid and powerful striking with a decent wrestling game. Ellenberger is mainly a wrestler, and a pretty good one at that. He’ll also have a few inches of reach advantage over Howard in this contest. The biggest skill set in this fight is Ellenberger’s wrestling, and that will win him this fight. There may be some tense moments, but Ellenberger will end up with the decision victory. Ellenberger via unanimous decision.

Yushin Okami vs. Mark Munoz: Munoz is coming off an exciting 2nd round victory over Kendall Grove at UFC 112 in a fight that nearly saw him beaten in the 1st round. Munoz came back in the 2nd round and used some brutal ground n’ pound to finish Grove. Munoz is 3-1 in the UFC, with a knockout loss to Matt Hamill as the only blemish on his record. Okami was once a top contender in the middleweight division, but has fallen back somewhat due to a somewhat methodical style as well as a lopsided loss to Chael Sonnen at UFC 104. He was once one of the stronger fighters in the middleweight division, but was manhandled somewhat at the hands of Sonnen. Like Sonnen, Munoz’s strength is his wrestling. He was a national champion at Oklahoma State but for some reason prefers to keep fights standing in the cage. He also has a very powerful ground n’ pound attack. Okami may struggle somewhat with the wrestling ability of Munoz if he uses it. Okami should be the stronger striker of the two, though he has never been known as a great striker himself. Munoz is still young in the sport and is prone to mistakes, the kind of mistakes a veteran like Okami can exploit. However, Munoz can be explosive if he used his wrestling well in the cage. This is a toss-up for me, but I think that Munoz’s wrestling ability wins out in the end. Munoz via unanimous decision.

Jon Jones vs. Vladimir Matyushenko: Matyushenko is a solid veteran light heavyweight. He rattled off an eight-fight winning streak from 2005-2008, before having it ended by Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. He had beaten Nogueira in their first contest in 2002. Matyushenko fought for the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 33 in 2001, but lost a unanimous decision to Tito Ortiz. After the loss to Ortiz, Matyushenko came back to defeat Travis Wiuff and Pedro Rizzo at UFC 40 and UFC 41 before losing to Andrei Arlovski at UFC 44. After the loss to Arlovski, Matyushenko fought mainly for the IFL, claiming their light heavyweight championship. He returned to the UFC at UFC 103, winning a unanimous decision over Igor Pokrajac. He followed that up with a split-decision win over Eliot Marshall at the first UFC Live event. Jones is one of the best prospects in the sport. He destroyed Brandon Vera at the first UFC Live event, winning by TKO in the first. The win improved his record to 4-1 in the UFC, with the only loss coming to Matt Hamill via DQ in a fight he was dominating. He comes from a Greco-Roman wrestling background, but is an explosive and creative striker as well. He recently made the switch to Greg Jackson’s camp in New Mexico. Jackson is admittedly working on eliminating some of the risk-taking out of Jones’ game. It’s fun to watch on TV, but opens him up to the possibilty of being caught. The Matyushenko fight is a good step for Jones. He’ll get to take on a tough veteran with a very solid wrestling game who has the ability to grind out a decision against him. Unfortunately for Matyushenko, that’s the only way I see him possibly winning the fight. However, Jones has the potential to win the fight standing, with positional wrestling, or with the vicious ground n’ pound he’s displayed on a couple of occasions. Jones will continue to rise up the rankings with another dominant win. Jones via TKO in the 2nd.

Can UFC 121 Become the Biggest UFC Pay-Per-View of All-Time?

Tim — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 05:23:18 +0000

The simple and most likely answer to this question is “no.” However, I think there are some reasons to believe that if certain factors are met, UFC 121 in October could become the biggest UFC Pay-Per-View of all-time, surpassing the 1.6 million buyrate for UFC 100.

The biggest factor in the equation is the biggest name in the sport, Brock Lesnar. Lesnar has turned into a bonafide PPV superstar, drawing an estimated 1.0-1.3 million buyrate for UFC 116 basically single-handedly. Shane Carwin was a threat to Lesnar’s title, but certainly didn’t do much to promote or hype the fight. The co-main event of the card was a fight between Yoshihiro Akiyama and Chris Leben. Akiyama is a pretty big draw overseas, but that likely didn’t translate into much of a buyrate bump here in North America. Leben is a fun fighter to watch, but certainly didn’t draw any buys by himself. It would have been interesting to see how many more PPV buys there would have been had Wanderlei Silva not had to withdraw from his scheduled fight with Akiyama due to an injury. It likely would have given the buyrate a decent bump.

However, that Lesnar was able to draw one of the top 3 buyrates in the company’s history single-handedly is an impressive feat. Lesnar also headlined UFC 100, which currently holds the top spot in UFC PPV buyrate history at 1.6 million. That card also featured Georges St. Pierre vs. Thiago Alves in a welterweight title fight, as well as Dan Henderson against Michael Bisping after the two were opposing coaches on The Ultimate Fighter.

The scheduled card for UFC 121 falls somewhere between the star-studded UFC 100 card and the star-challenged UFC 116 card. In addition to Lesnar taking on Cain Velasquez, Tito Ortiz is scheduled to return to the Octagon to face Matt Hamill. Ortiz was once one of the biggest draws in the UFC, but time, injuries and lack of performance have taken their toll on Ortiz’s star-power and drawing ability. His main-event fight with Forrest Griffin at UFC 106 only drew a reported 330,000 buys. Ortiz did coach the last season of The Ultimate Fighter , well most of it anyway, before he was replaced by Rich Franklin due to an injury. His name is still good enough for a slight bump in the buyrate, which is something that couldn’t be said for anyone else on the UFC 116 card.

Also on the scheduled card for UFC 121 is Jake Shields. Shields is the former middleweight champion of Strikeforce, but has never been known for being a flashy or extremely popular fighter. His presence on the card will most likely have little effect on the buyrate of UFC 121. However, the combination of a heavyweight title fight between Lesnar and Velasquez, plus Ortiz in the co-main event and an undercard that features Shields and Diego Sanchez (scheduled to fight Paulo Thiago on the main card) is a much stronger card on paper than the UFC 116 card.

Also, the challenger to Lesnar’s heavyweight title needs to be taken into account when talking about potential buyrates. Prior to UFC 116, Shane Carwin did little to really hype or sell the fight. He pretty much relied on people talking about his size similarity to Brock to help sell the fight, but his personality is pretty non-descript. Cain Velasquez isn’t known as a big talker either, but depending on how the UFC handles the build up to the fight, he can certainly become a huge help to the eventual buyrate.

Velasquez is proud of his Mexican heritage, and proudly sports a “Brown Pride” tattoo across his chest. It has become a somewhat controversial topic inside the MMA community. However, the Spanish speaking audience has always been a reliable audience for boxing and even professional wrestling, where Rey Mysterio Jr. was considered a decent draw as a headliner. The Latino audience has been somewhat slow to embrace MMA, but if the UFC can tap into that market with their pre-fight promotion of the event, it could be a big boost to the overall buyrate numbers.

In addition to the fighters on the card, there are other factors that will affect the final buyrate figures. First of all, the Lesnar/Velasquez fight has to live up to the hype. Many buys of UFC 116 were generated after the event itself, when word of Lesnar’s dramatic comeback started to spread to those who hadn’t yet seen the event. The Lesnar/Velasquez fight has to be intriguing enough to sell a good number of pay-per-views after the event initially airs.

In my opinion, the UFC also has to have a strong run of cards prior to UFC 121 to build momentum going into the event. UFC 114 is reported to have drawn about a million buys, and UFC 115 did a solid 500,000-600,000 buys with the Rich Franklin/Chuck Liddell main event. Those two pay-per-views built some momentum that carried over into UFC 116. The UFC is expecting good buyrates for the next two events. UFC 117 features a main event between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen, while UFC 118 features a rematch between B.J. Penn and Frankie Edgar for the lightweight title, as well as a fight between Randy Couture and former boxing champion James Toney that is sure to garner some publicity. However, UFC 119 in September lacks a huge buzz as a rematch between Frank Mir and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria serves as the night’s main-event. UFC 121 will get some free publicity the week before the event though, as UFC 120 is expected to air free on Spike on October 16th. Expect lots of promos for Lesnar/Velasquez during that free card.

Finally, the main fighters on the card (Lesnar, Velasquez, Ortiz) need to remain healthy. There are not many events that the UFC plans where at least a few fighters don’t drop out due to injuries prior to the fight. This is the part of the equation where luck will play a major role.

In the end, it comes down to Lesnar and the UFC. Lesnar seems to be becoming more and more popular everyday. The amount of press he got after his victory at UFC 116 almost guarantees that his next fight will draw nearly the same amount of pay-per-view buys regardless of opponent or the quality of other fighters on the card. Brock is the biggest star in the sport, and his presence on the card will account for the majority of Pay-Per-View sales, but Dana White and the UFC have to do an effective job of marketing not only Lesnar, but also Velasquez as a credible challenger (which he is) to make the event even bigger. The opportunity is there for this event to become the biggest UFC pay-per-view of all-time. It’s now up to the fighters, the marketing and a little bit of luck to make it turn out that way.

Strikeforce Champ Shields Near Deal With UFC

Tim — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 04:43:06 +0000

Current Strikeforce middleweight champion Jake Shields is close to finalizing a deal with the UFC according to various reports. Shields has been in negotiations with the UFC since his last title defense in April against Dan Henderson.

UFC president Dana White has not hidden his desire to get Shields into his promotion, mouthing “He’s mine” while sitting next to Shields at the WEC 48 pay-per-view. Strikeforce initally expressed hope that Shields would resign with the organization, but sensing the inevitable, they released Shields from his contract on June 30th, leaving the UFC as Shields’ only suitor.

While he was the Strikeforce middleweight champion, Shields is a natural welterweight. He took fights at middleweight in Strikeforce because there weren’t many matchups for him at welterweight. He is expected to compete in the welterweight division in the UFC, and many reports indicate that the UFC is planning a fight between Shields and welterweight contender Martin Kampmann. Kampmann is 4-1 in his past five fights, with the only loss coming to Paul Daley at UFC 103.

Shields is 25-4-1 in his MMA career, and has notable victories over Henderson, Jason “Mayhem” Miller, Robbie Lawler, Paul Daley, Carlos Condit and Yushin Okami. Shields has won his past 14 fights, and would instantly become a top challenger to Georges St. Pierre’s welterweight title. The 31-year old Shields holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu from Cesar Gracie, and also boasts a strong amateur wrestling background.

In his last contest against Dan Henderson, Shields came back from being rocked in the first round to dominate the fight en route to a unanimous decision victory over the former PRIDE welterweight and middleweight champion. After the fight, Shields and “Mayhem” Miller got into a shouting match which led to the brawl between Miller, Shields and his teammates at Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu which was captured live on CBS television.

Lesnar vs. Velasquez Slated for UFC 121 in Anaheim

Tim — Sun, 11 Jul 2010 22:35:42 +0000

After UFC president Dana White shot down rumors that UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar would next defend his title against Cain Velasquez at UFC 119 in Indianapolis, many wondered when the fight would take place. That speculation can end as White confirmed that Lesnar will face Velasquez at UFC 121 in Anaheim this October.

Lesnar and his wife are expecting their second child soon, and he was hesitant to jump right back into another training camp so quickly. The scheduled October fight will give the champion some time off with his family before he has to start another training camp.

The UFC was anxious to get the Lesnar/Velasquez fight signed due to the layoff that Velasquez has already had. He last fought at UFC 110 in February, where he was very impressive in stopping former champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in the 1st round via TKO. The win improved Velasquez’s record to 8-0, including a 6-0 run to begin his UFC career.

The Lesnar/Velasquez fight is an interesting contest on paper. Velasquez was an excellent wrestler at Arizona State, and was named an All-American after both his Junior and Senior seasons. He also has shown progressive improvements in his striking game, battering both Ben Rothwell and Nogueira in his last two outings. His conditioning was tested in a three-round unanimous decision win over Cheick Kongo at UFC 99, so he probably won’t gas out as quickly as Shane Carwin did.

Another difference between Velasquez and Carwin is their size. Whereas Carwin was almost as big as Lesnar when the two fought, Velasquez will come into the fight at a 20-25 lb disadvantage. He was asked about trying to get a little bigger before the Lesnar fight, but Velasquez maintains that his normal weight of 240-245 is his optimal fighting weight, and that he’s not concerned about a size differential in the title fight.

UFC 121 is scheduled to take place on October 23rd in Anaheim, CA.

Mir/Nogueira II To Headline UFC 119

Tim — Fri, 09 Jul 2010 04:12:00 +0000

The UFC has confirmed that a rematch between heavyweights Frank Mir and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira will headline UFC 119, scheduled to take place in Indianapolis, Indiana in September.

The two previously clashed at UFC 92 in December of 2008, where Mir shocked many by battering Nogueira over two rounds before getting the TKO victory. After the fight, Nogueira revealed he had been battling a nasty staph infection prior to the contest, and while showing respect to Mir for the victory, made it known that he would like a rematch down the line. It finally comes in late September.

It will be interesting to see how Mir comes into this contest. After his loss to Brock Lesnar at UFC 100, Mir decided that he needed to add bulk to compete with the bigger heavyweights. After weighing close to 245 for his fight with Nogueira, Mir came into recent fights against Cheick Kongo and Shane Carwin at close to 265 pounds. Despite the added bulk, Mir still looked noticably smaller than Carwin prior to the fight, and Carwin was able to use his superior strength to hold Mir against the cage while delivering punishing blows. Mir has said recently that he will likely try to shed most of the muscle mass he added in the past year, and will likely try to get back to around 245 pounds.

This fight is a must-win for both fighters to remain relevant in the UFC’s heavyweight division. Even the winner will have a hard time getting back in line for a title shot, but for the loser, the chance may never come around again.

In the co-main event of the evening, Nogueira’s twin brother, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, will face off against Ryan Bader in a light heavyweight contest. Rogerio is coming off a surprisingly difficult split-decision win over Jason Brilz at UFC 114 in May. Bader is an impressive 11-0 in his career, and is 4-0 in the UFC. He most recently beat Keith Jardine via KO at UFC 110 in February. The winner of this contest will be in prime position for a future title shot.

UFC 116 Post-Fight Thoughts

Tim — Wed, 07 Jul 2010 03:47:41 +0000

UFC 116 was, quite simply, one of the most exciting MMA Pay-Per-Views of all time. From the prelims to the main card, nearly every fight provided great finishes, exciting back-and-forth action or fantastic comebacks. Here are some of my post-fight notes.

Brendan Schaub has the hands and the power to reach the middle of the UFC’s heavyweight division. His quick 1st round KO of Chris Tuchscherer was impressive. He’s still young enough and talented enough to improve on his ground game, which is something he’ll have to do to ever compete with the best heavyweights in the world.
George Sotiropolous is definitely closing in on a lightweight title shot. He controlled much of the first two rounds against Kurt Pellegrino, and showed improved striking. His ground game is still one of the best in the UFC’s lightweight division, though his takedown defense still needs work. He’s probably one more win away from being in the title shot conversation after improving his UFC record to 6-0 with the unanimous decision win.
The Stephan Bonnar/Krzysztof Soszynski fight was far from pretty, but was extremely entertaining. Bonnar got a much needed win. No one ever doubted his guts, and he showed a ton of them on Saturday night.
Chris Lytle likes to downplay his ground credentials, but he used them to notch a submission win over Matt Brown. The armbar was probably headed to submission of the night status, until the next two fights happened anyway.
What can you really say about Chris Leben? Not only did he take the fight against a really tough opponent in Yoshihiro Akiyama on very short notice only 2 weeks after his last fight, but he was the one who was able to dig down deep to latch onto a triangle only seconds before the bell. Leben combines one of the toughest chins in all of MMA with an obvious abundance of heart and has now won two fights in two weeks. Akiyama, meanwhile, needs to get his conditioning up to par. He looks like a more natural welterweight in the Octagon, and that is where his future may be.
Shane Carwin impressed me in the first round. His all-out blitz of Brock Lesnar was a little shocking to witness, but proved that what everyone said about his power was true. However, that was all completely undone as he was unable to finish a clearly hurt Lesnar, and came out in the second round completely gassed. His cardio had been a question coming in, and remains one after the fight.
Brock Lesnar proved that he can take punishment from one of the biggest and hardest hitters in all of MMA, and still had the heart to fight on. His cardio was impressive, as he came out in the 2nd round much fresher than Carwin. He was able to get the takedown, and patiently worked for the submission. Lesnar had already proven that he was the most dominant heavyweight in the UFC, but this victory answered many questions that people had about him, namely his ability to recover from adversity during a fight.