MMA Ground N' Pound

UFC Live: Jones vs. Matyushenko Preview and Predictions

Tim — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 04:43:14 +0000

The UFC returns to Versus for their second event on the network. Jon Jones headlined the first UFC show on the network, and after making quick work of Brandon Vera on that night, Jones returns main event status as he takes on veteran Vladimir Matyushenko. The co-main event features Yushin Okami against Mark Munoz.

Tyson Griffin vs. Takanori Gomi: Gomi made his long-awaited UFC debut against Kenny Florian at UFC Fight Night 21, but looked like a shell of the fighter who dominated the lightweight division in PRIDE for so long. He was outclassed from bell to bell by Florian, who eventually finished the fight with a rear-naked choke in the third round. The loss was Gomi’s third loss in his last five fights. Gomi was scheduled to fight Joe Stevenson, but an injury to Stevenson forced him off the card. Griffin stepped in on short notice. Griffin is coming off a split-decision loss to Evan Dunham at UFC 115, but still sports an impressive 8-3 record in the UFC. During his UFC tenure, Griffin has beaten the likes of Hermes Franca, Clay Guida, Marcus Aurelio, and Gleison Tibau, and also defeated Urijah Faber prior to his UFC debut. Griffin is a solid wrestler with good kickboxing, though he doesn’t possess true knockout power. His fights are always exciting, and he sets a fast pace. Gomi would win this fight if he was in his prime, but unfortunately, I think he’s nearly done as a fighter. If Griffin decides to get in a slugfest with Gomi, he could definitely get knocked out. However, I think Griffin will utilize his wrestling more than he has in recent fights, and that will get him the decision victory. Griffin via unanimous decision.

John Howard vs. Jake Ellenberger: Howard has begun his UFC career in style, winning his first four fights, his last two by knockout. He made his debut at UFC 94, defeating Chris Wilson via split decision. He followed that up with another split decision win over Tamdan McCrory at UFC 101, before knocking out Dennis Hallman at the Ultimate Fighter 10 finale (a fight he was losing until the final seconds) and over Daniel Roberts at the first UFC Live event. Ellenberger made his UFC debut at UFC Fight Night 19, where he nearly scored a big upset over Carlos Condit but ended up dropping a close split decision. He followed up that performance with a 2nd round TKO over Mike Pyle at UFC 108. Howard is a pretty well rounded fighter, combining solid and powerful striking with a decent wrestling game. Ellenberger is mainly a wrestler, and a pretty good one at that. He’ll also have a few inches of reach advantage over Howard in this contest. The biggest skill set in this fight is Ellenberger’s wrestling, and that will win him this fight. There may be some tense moments, but Ellenberger will end up with the decision victory. Ellenberger via unanimous decision.

Yushin Okami vs. Mark Munoz: Munoz is coming off an exciting 2nd round victory over Kendall Grove at UFC 112 in a fight that nearly saw him beaten in the 1st round. Munoz came back in the 2nd round and used some brutal ground n’ pound to finish Grove. Munoz is 3-1 in the UFC, with a knockout loss to Matt Hamill as the only blemish on his record. Okami was once a top contender in the middleweight division, but has fallen back somewhat due to a somewhat methodical style as well as a lopsided loss to Chael Sonnen at UFC 104. He was once one of the stronger fighters in the middleweight division, but was manhandled somewhat at the hands of Sonnen. Like Sonnen, Munoz’s strength is his wrestling. He was a national champion at Oklahoma State but for some reason prefers to keep fights standing in the cage. He also has a very powerful ground n’ pound attack. Okami may struggle somewhat with the wrestling ability of Munoz if he uses it. Okami should be the stronger striker of the two, though he has never been known as a great striker himself. Munoz is still young in the sport and is prone to mistakes, the kind of mistakes a veteran like Okami can exploit. However, Munoz can be explosive if he used his wrestling well in the cage. This is a toss-up for me, but I think that Munoz’s wrestling ability wins out in the end. Munoz via unanimous decision.

Jon Jones vs. Vladimir Matyushenko: Matyushenko is a solid veteran light heavyweight. He rattled off an eight-fight winning streak from 2005-2008, before having it ended by Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. He had beaten Nogueira in their first contest in 2002. Matyushenko fought for the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 33 in 2001, but lost a unanimous decision to Tito Ortiz. After the loss to Ortiz, Matyushenko came back to defeat Travis Wiuff and Pedro Rizzo at UFC 40 and UFC 41 before losing to Andrei Arlovski at UFC 44. After the loss to Arlovski, Matyushenko fought mainly for the IFL, claiming their light heavyweight championship. He returned to the UFC at UFC 103, winning a unanimous decision over Igor Pokrajac. He followed that up with a split-decision win over Eliot Marshall at the first UFC Live event. Jones is one of the best prospects in the sport. He destroyed Brandon Vera at the first UFC Live event, winning by TKO in the first. The win improved his record to 4-1 in the UFC, with the only loss coming to Matt Hamill via DQ in a fight he was dominating. He comes from a Greco-Roman wrestling background, but is an explosive and creative striker as well. He recently made the switch to Greg Jackson’s camp in New Mexico. Jackson is admittedly working on eliminating some of the risk-taking out of Jones’ game. It’s fun to watch on TV, but opens him up to the possibilty of being caught. The Matyushenko fight is a good step for Jones. He’ll get to take on a tough veteran with a very solid wrestling game who has the ability to grind out a decision against him. Unfortunately for Matyushenko, that’s the only way I see him possibly winning the fight. However, Jones has the potential to win the fight standing, with positional wrestling, or with the vicious ground n’ pound he’s displayed on a couple of occasions. Jones will continue to rise up the rankings with another dominant win. Jones via TKO in the 2nd.

Can UFC 121 Become the Biggest UFC Pay-Per-View of All-Time?

Tim — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 05:23:18 +0000

The simple and most likely answer to this question is “no.” However, I think there are some reasons to believe that if certain factors are met, UFC 121 in October could become the biggest UFC Pay-Per-View of all-time, surpassing the 1.6 million buyrate for UFC 100.

The biggest factor in the equation is the biggest name in the sport, Brock Lesnar. Lesnar has turned into a bonafide PPV superstar, drawing an estimated 1.0-1.3 million buyrate for UFC 116 basically single-handedly. Shane Carwin was a threat to Lesnar’s title, but certainly didn’t do much to promote or hype the fight. The co-main event of the card was a fight between Yoshihiro Akiyama and Chris Leben. Akiyama is a pretty big draw overseas, but that likely didn’t translate into much of a buyrate bump here in North America. Leben is a fun fighter to watch, but certainly didn’t draw any buys by himself. It would have been interesting to see how many more PPV buys there would have been had Wanderlei Silva not had to withdraw from his scheduled fight with Akiyama due to an injury. It likely would have given the buyrate a decent bump.

However, that Lesnar was able to draw one of the top 3 buyrates in the company’s history single-handedly is an impressive feat. Lesnar also headlined UFC 100, which currently holds the top spot in UFC PPV buyrate history at 1.6 million. That card also featured Georges St. Pierre vs. Thiago Alves in a welterweight title fight, as well as Dan Henderson against Michael Bisping after the two were opposing coaches on The Ultimate Fighter.

The scheduled card for UFC 121 falls somewhere between the star-studded UFC 100 card and the star-challenged UFC 116 card. In addition to Lesnar taking on Cain Velasquez, Tito Ortiz is scheduled to return to the Octagon to face Matt Hamill. Ortiz was once one of the biggest draws in the UFC, but time, injuries and lack of performance have taken their toll on Ortiz’s star-power and drawing ability. His main-event fight with Forrest Griffin at UFC 106 only drew a reported 330,000 buys. Ortiz did coach the last season of The Ultimate Fighter , well most of it anyway, before he was replaced by Rich Franklin due to an injury. His name is still good enough for a slight bump in the buyrate, which is something that couldn’t be said for anyone else on the UFC 116 card.

Also on the scheduled card for UFC 121 is Jake Shields. Shields is the former middleweight champion of Strikeforce, but has never been known for being a flashy or extremely popular fighter. His presence on the card will most likely have little effect on the buyrate of UFC 121. However, the combination of a heavyweight title fight between Lesnar and Velasquez, plus Ortiz in the co-main event and an undercard that features Shields and Diego Sanchez (scheduled to fight Paulo Thiago on the main card) is a much stronger card on paper than the UFC 116 card.

Also, the challenger to Lesnar’s heavyweight title needs to be taken into account when talking about potential buyrates. Prior to UFC 116, Shane Carwin did little to really hype or sell the fight. He pretty much relied on people talking about his size similarity to Brock to help sell the fight, but his personality is pretty non-descript. Cain Velasquez isn’t known as a big talker either, but depending on how the UFC handles the build up to the fight, he can certainly become a huge help to the eventual buyrate.

Velasquez is proud of his Mexican heritage, and proudly sports a “Brown Pride” tattoo across his chest. It has become a somewhat controversial topic inside the MMA community. However, the Spanish speaking audience has always been a reliable audience for boxing and even professional wrestling, where Rey Mysterio Jr. was considered a decent draw as a headliner. The Latino audience has been somewhat slow to embrace MMA, but if the UFC can tap into that market with their pre-fight promotion of the event, it could be a big boost to the overall buyrate numbers.

In addition to the fighters on the card, there are other factors that will affect the final buyrate figures. First of all, the Lesnar/Velasquez fight has to live up to the hype. Many buys of UFC 116 were generated after the event itself, when word of Lesnar’s dramatic comeback started to spread to those who hadn’t yet seen the event. The Lesnar/Velasquez fight has to be intriguing enough to sell a good number of pay-per-views after the event initially airs.

In my opinion, the UFC also has to have a strong run of cards prior to UFC 121 to build momentum going into the event. UFC 114 is reported to have drawn about a million buys, and UFC 115 did a solid 500,000-600,000 buys with the Rich Franklin/Chuck Liddell main event. Those two pay-per-views built some momentum that carried over into UFC 116. The UFC is expecting good buyrates for the next two events. UFC 117 features a main event between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen, while UFC 118 features a rematch between B.J. Penn and Frankie Edgar for the lightweight title, as well as a fight between Randy Couture and former boxing champion James Toney that is sure to garner some publicity. However, UFC 119 in September lacks a huge buzz as a rematch between Frank Mir and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria serves as the night’s main-event. UFC 121 will get some free publicity the week before the event though, as UFC 120 is expected to air free on Spike on October 16th. Expect lots of promos for Lesnar/Velasquez during that free card.

Finally, the main fighters on the card (Lesnar, Velasquez, Ortiz) need to remain healthy. There are not many events that the UFC plans where at least a few fighters don’t drop out due to injuries prior to the fight. This is the part of the equation where luck will play a major role.

In the end, it comes down to Lesnar and the UFC. Lesnar seems to be becoming more and more popular everyday. The amount of press he got after his victory at UFC 116 almost guarantees that his next fight will draw nearly the same amount of pay-per-view buys regardless of opponent or the quality of other fighters on the card. Brock is the biggest star in the sport, and his presence on the card will account for the majority of Pay-Per-View sales, but Dana White and the UFC have to do an effective job of marketing not only Lesnar, but also Velasquez as a credible challenger (which he is) to make the event even bigger. The opportunity is there for this event to become the biggest UFC pay-per-view of all-time. It’s now up to the fighters, the marketing and a little bit of luck to make it turn out that way.

Strikeforce Champ Shields Near Deal With UFC

Tim — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 04:43:06 +0000

Current Strikeforce middleweight champion Jake Shields is close to finalizing a deal with the UFC according to various reports. Shields has been in negotiations with the UFC since his last title defense in April against Dan Henderson.

UFC president Dana White has not hidden his desire to get Shields into his promotion, mouthing “He’s mine” while sitting next to Shields at the WEC 48 pay-per-view. Strikeforce initally expressed hope that Shields would resign with the organization, but sensing the inevitable, they released Shields from his contract on June 30th, leaving the UFC as Shields’ only suitor.

While he was the Strikeforce middleweight champion, Shields is a natural welterweight. He took fights at middleweight in Strikeforce because there weren’t many matchups for him at welterweight. He is expected to compete in the welterweight division in the UFC, and many reports indicate that the UFC is planning a fight between Shields and welterweight contender Martin Kampmann. Kampmann is 4-1 in his past five fights, with the only loss coming to Paul Daley at UFC 103.

Shields is 25-4-1 in his MMA career, and has notable victories over Henderson, Jason “Mayhem” Miller, Robbie Lawler, Paul Daley, Carlos Condit and Yushin Okami. Shields has won his past 14 fights, and would instantly become a top challenger to Georges St. Pierre’s welterweight title. The 31-year old Shields holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu from Cesar Gracie, and also boasts a strong amateur wrestling background.

In his last contest against Dan Henderson, Shields came back from being rocked in the first round to dominate the fight en route to a unanimous decision victory over the former PRIDE welterweight and middleweight champion. After the fight, Shields and “Mayhem” Miller got into a shouting match which led to the brawl between Miller, Shields and his teammates at Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu which was captured live on CBS television.

Lesnar vs. Velasquez Slated for UFC 121 in Anaheim

Tim — Sun, 11 Jul 2010 22:35:42 +0000

After UFC president Dana White shot down rumors that UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar would next defend his title against Cain Velasquez at UFC 119 in Indianapolis, many wondered when the fight would take place. That speculation can end as White confirmed that Lesnar will face Velasquez at UFC 121 in Anaheim this October.

Lesnar and his wife are expecting their second child soon, and he was hesitant to jump right back into another training camp so quickly. The scheduled October fight will give the champion some time off with his family before he has to start another training camp.

The UFC was anxious to get the Lesnar/Velasquez fight signed due to the layoff that Velasquez has already had. He last fought at UFC 110 in February, where he was very impressive in stopping former champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in the 1st round via TKO. The win improved Velasquez’s record to 8-0, including a 6-0 run to begin his UFC career.

The Lesnar/Velasquez fight is an interesting contest on paper. Velasquez was an excellent wrestler at Arizona State, and was named an All-American after both his Junior and Senior seasons. He also has shown progressive improvements in his striking game, battering both Ben Rothwell and Nogueira in his last two outings. His conditioning was tested in a three-round unanimous decision win over Cheick Kongo at UFC 99, so he probably won’t gas out as quickly as Shane Carwin did.

Another difference between Velasquez and Carwin is their size. Whereas Carwin was almost as big as Lesnar when the two fought, Velasquez will come into the fight at a 20-25 lb disadvantage. He was asked about trying to get a little bigger before the Lesnar fight, but Velasquez maintains that his normal weight of 240-245 is his optimal fighting weight, and that he’s not concerned about a size differential in the title fight.

UFC 121 is scheduled to take place on October 23rd in Anaheim, CA.

Mir/Nogueira II To Headline UFC 119

Tim — Fri, 09 Jul 2010 04:12:00 +0000

The UFC has confirmed that a rematch between heavyweights Frank Mir and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira will headline UFC 119, scheduled to take place in Indianapolis, Indiana in September.

The two previously clashed at UFC 92 in December of 2008, where Mir shocked many by battering Nogueira over two rounds before getting the TKO victory. After the fight, Nogueira revealed he had been battling a nasty staph infection prior to the contest, and while showing respect to Mir for the victory, made it known that he would like a rematch down the line. It finally comes in late September.

It will be interesting to see how Mir comes into this contest. After his loss to Brock Lesnar at UFC 100, Mir decided that he needed to add bulk to compete with the bigger heavyweights. After weighing close to 245 for his fight with Nogueira, Mir came into recent fights against Cheick Kongo and Shane Carwin at close to 265 pounds. Despite the added bulk, Mir still looked noticably smaller than Carwin prior to the fight, and Carwin was able to use his superior strength to hold Mir against the cage while delivering punishing blows. Mir has said recently that he will likely try to shed most of the muscle mass he added in the past year, and will likely try to get back to around 245 pounds.

This fight is a must-win for both fighters to remain relevant in the UFC’s heavyweight division. Even the winner will have a hard time getting back in line for a title shot, but for the loser, the chance may never come around again.

In the co-main event of the evening, Nogueira’s twin brother, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, will face off against Ryan Bader in a light heavyweight contest. Rogerio is coming off a surprisingly difficult split-decision win over Jason Brilz at UFC 114 in May. Bader is an impressive 11-0 in his career, and is 4-0 in the UFC. He most recently beat Keith Jardine via KO at UFC 110 in February. The winner of this contest will be in prime position for a future title shot.

UFC 116 Post-Fight Thoughts

Tim — Wed, 07 Jul 2010 03:47:41 +0000

UFC 116 was, quite simply, one of the most exciting MMA Pay-Per-Views of all time. From the prelims to the main card, nearly every fight provided great finishes, exciting back-and-forth action or fantastic comebacks. Here are some of my post-fight notes.

Brendan Schaub has the hands and the power to reach the middle of the UFC’s heavyweight division. His quick 1st round KO of Chris Tuchscherer was impressive. He’s still young enough and talented enough to improve on his ground game, which is something he’ll have to do to ever compete with the best heavyweights in the world.
George Sotiropolous is definitely closing in on a lightweight title shot. He controlled much of the first two rounds against Kurt Pellegrino, and showed improved striking. His ground game is still one of the best in the UFC’s lightweight division, though his takedown defense still needs work. He’s probably one more win away from being in the title shot conversation after improving his UFC record to 6-0 with the unanimous decision win.
The Stephan Bonnar/Krzysztof Soszynski fight was far from pretty, but was extremely entertaining. Bonnar got a much needed win. No one ever doubted his guts, and he showed a ton of them on Saturday night.
Chris Lytle likes to downplay his ground credentials, but he used them to notch a submission win over Matt Brown. The armbar was probably headed to submission of the night status, until the next two fights happened anyway.
What can you really say about Chris Leben? Not only did he take the fight against a really tough opponent in Yoshihiro Akiyama on very short notice only 2 weeks after his last fight, but he was the one who was able to dig down deep to latch onto a triangle only seconds before the bell. Leben combines one of the toughest chins in all of MMA with an obvious abundance of heart and has now won two fights in two weeks. Akiyama, meanwhile, needs to get his conditioning up to par. He looks like a more natural welterweight in the Octagon, and that is where his future may be.
Shane Carwin impressed me in the first round. His all-out blitz of Brock Lesnar was a little shocking to witness, but proved that what everyone said about his power was true. However, that was all completely undone as he was unable to finish a clearly hurt Lesnar, and came out in the second round completely gassed. His cardio had been a question coming in, and remains one after the fight.
Brock Lesnar proved that he can take punishment from one of the biggest and hardest hitters in all of MMA, and still had the heart to fight on. His cardio was impressive, as he came out in the 2nd round much fresher than Carwin. He was able to get the takedown, and patiently worked for the submission. Lesnar had already proven that he was the most dominant heavyweight in the UFC, but this victory answered many questions that people had about him, namely his ability to recover from adversity during a fight.

UFC 116 Preview and Predictions

Tim — Fri, 02 Jul 2010 05:34:35 +0000

UFC 116 features one of the most anticipated heavyweight fights of all-time as Brock Lesnar takes on Shane Carwin for the heavyweight title. The undercard has some significant fights as well.

Brock Lesnar:

32 years old

6′3, 265lbs

1999 national runner-up in heavyweight division while wrestling for University of Minnesota

2000 National Division 1 heavyweight champion

UFC Career:

Loss vs. Frank Mir at UFC 81 (1st round submission)

Win vs. Heath Herring at UFC 87 (Unanimous decision)

Win vs. Randy Couture at UFC 91 to win UFC heavyweight championship (TKO round 2)

Win vs. Frank Mir at UFC 100 to retain UFC heavyweight championship (TKO round 2)

Shane Carwin:

35 years old

6′2, 265 lbs

1996 Division II runner-up in heavyweight division while at Western State College in Colorado

1997 Division II runner-up

1999 Division II national champion

UFC Career:

Win vs. Christian Wellisch at UFC 84 (1st round KO)

Win vs. Neil Wain at UFC 89 (1st round TKO)

Win vs. Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 96 (1st round KO)

Win vs. Frank Mir at UFC 111 to win UFC interim heavyweight title (1st round KO)

Wrestling: There is a difference in wrestling between the two. It’s like the difference between an All-American quarterback at USC vs. an All-American quarterback at Western Illinois. In terms of what we’ve seen from the two in the wrestling department in the Octagon, Lesnar has been more effective. He took down Frank Mir at will twice, Heath Herring once, and outwrestled Randy Couture as well. Carwin got taken down by Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 96, and had difficulty taking down Neil Wain at UFC 89. He did well to get himself back to his feet against Gonzaga, but to be taken down by a guy who is more noted for his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu then his wrestling, is a bit of a warning sign. If this was a pure wrestling contest, Lesnar would have the advantage hands-down.

Striking: Both have immense knockout power. Lesnar turned Frank Mir and Heath Herring’s faces into lunchmeat, and knocked out Randy Couture with what amounted to a glancing right hook. Carwin knocked Gonzaga cold with a right hook that he barely even stepped into, and did the same to Mir with short, vicious uppercuts. We’ve seen Carwin take a pretty solid punch from Gonzaga and shake it off, while Brock’s chin hasn’t really been tested that much. He was staggered slightly by Couture, and may have been by a knee from Mir in the 2nd fight, but was able to gain a takedown off of that mistake from Mir. These are both huge guys who hit hard, but I think Carwin may be a tad more polished as a striker. If this was a pure striking battle, I would give a slight edge to Carwin.

X-Factors:

Conditioning: Many things at play here. Carwin has never been out of the 1st round, so we don’t know how his cardio will last. Lesnar has been into the 2nd round 3 times, and went 3 rounds against Heath Herring. However, Carwin does train at altitude in Colorado, and his trainers insist he can go 5 rounds no problem.

Could Lesnar’s long layoff (Just 8 days short of an entire year) play a role here? Word from Randy Couture who went up to Minnesota to train with Lesnar a couple weeks ago is that Brock is slimmer and has changed his diet because of the illness he suffered. Couture claims that Lesnar is currently at 280lbs, which is about 20 lbs under what he was fighting at before he got sick. He won’t have to cut as much weight to get to the 265 lb limit as he normally does, but the size advantage he has over just about every other heavyweight is negated a little in this one. Tonight, Carwin tweeted that he is currently 277 lbs. Brock still is a bigger overall guy, but it won’t be a huge difference come fight night.

Carwin’s full-time job. I know Carwin hates when people bring it up, but the fact of the matter is that MMA is Carwin’s 2nd job. He’s a full-time engineer in Colorado, and while I don’t doubt that he trains extremely hard, there’s something to be said both mentally and physically when all you have to do is train for a fight. Brock can do that, Carwin can’t. Is it a huge advantage for Lesnar? No. Is it worth mentioning? Yes.

Breakdown: They key to this one is going to be the wrestling in my opinion. Lesnar knows that Carwin has the power to lay him out, so he’ll try to utilize his superior wrestling and strength to get this one to the ground. We haven’t seen much of Carwin off his back, but I don’t imagine he’s too prepared to sweep or change positions on Lesnar. If Mir couldn’t do anything off his back with all of his BJJ skills, I don’t think Carwin can do much either, even though he’s bigger than Mir. Carwin’s clinch game was where he ended Mir’s night, so Lesnar has to be aware of that and must avoid being pushed against the cage where Carwin can land those short uppercuts. I suspect that Randy Couture, the king of dirty boxing and clinching, showed Lesnar some things he’ll be able to use against Carwin to limit the damage. Overall, Lesnar is the better wrestler and the better athlete. He’s just so explosive and strong. His athleticism gets overlooked because of his size, but he’s one of the best athletes in the world, I really believe that. I’d feel much more confident picking him before the illness and the long layoff, but I still think he has the advantage in this one. Lesnar via TKO in the 2nd.

Co-Main event: Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Chris Leben

Leben is a late replacement for Wanderlei Silva, who had to withdraw with broken ribs. Leben fought on June 19th at the Ultimate Fighter finale, and beat Aaron Simpson via 2nd round TKO. Leben is 10-5 in his UFC career, with wins over Patrick Cote, Jorge Santiago and Simpson, and losses to Anderson Silva, Michael Bisping, Jason MacDonald and Jake Rosholt amongst others.

Akiyama will be in his 2nd fight for the UFC after winning via split-decision over Alan Belcher at UFC 100. Some publications have him as a top 10 middleweight. He’s a black belt in Judo, and his striking has improved greatly in recent years. He’s a huge star in Japan and is 13-1 overall in his career. He’s got a good top game to go along with his Judo skills and his still developing striking. Akiyama originally had some hesitation in agreeing to fight Leben, thinking it was a step downward in competition, but he eventually accepted the fight.

Breakdown: The majority of this fight will most likely take place standing. Akiyama’s Judo skills are tremendous, but he also doesn’t mind to stand and bang. Leben will have no problem with that. He’s mainly a sprawl and brawl fighter. His takedown defense is pretty good, though is overall grappling game is still underwhelming, and he pretty much puts everything he has into every punch. My problem with Leben is that everytime he’s stepped up to face a top-level guy, he’s fallen short. He’s too one-dimensional. He always has the ”puncher’s chance,” but should be outclassed by Akiyama in this one, especially on such short notice. Akiyama via unanimous decision.

Chris Lytle vs. Matt Brown-

This fight is a rematch from 2007, where Lytle defeated Brown with a guillotine in the 2nd round in the “Ultimate Fight League” in Indiana.

Lytle has had 50 pro fights, and is 28-17-5 in his career. He comes from a boxing background, but is also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, something that he doesn’t utilize very frequently. He’s won his last two fights, over Brian Foster at UFC 110 via 1st round submission, and over Kevin Burns via unanimous decision at the Ultimate Finale 9.

Brown’s record doesn’t look especially pretty at 11-8, but prior to a 2nd round submission loss to Ricardo Almeida at UFC 111, he had won three consecutive fights in the UFC. He’s still a work in progress on the ground, and even though his striking is often sloppy, he does possess decent power.

Breakdown: Lytle should have the advantage in this one. He’s a better technical striker, and he doesn’t have to worry about Brown really trying to take him down too often. Lytle’s often overlooked ground skills could come into play as well. He has many more ways to win this fight then Brown does. Lytle via TKO in the 2nd.

Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Stephan Bonnar:

This is a rematch from their fight at UFC 110, where Soszynski picked up the victory via 3rd round TKO after the fight was stopped due to a cut on Bonnar’s head. The cut was caused by an accidental headbutt by Soszynski. Both fighters requested the rematch.

Bonnar made a name for himself in the first season of the Ultimate Fighter and especially with his fight with Forrest Griffin in the Finale of the season. Dana White has said that Bonnar will be with the companyfor life, though eventually I think he’s going to need to put some victories together. Including the loss to Soszynski, Bonnar has lost 3 consecutive contests, including an embarassing loss to Mark Coleman at UFC 100. He’s got pretty good BJJ (officially a purple belt under Carlson Gracie, but believed to be brown or black belt level) and also a former Golden Gloves boxer in Chicago.

Soszynski appeared on the 8th season of The Ultimate Fighter. Since beginning his UFC career, Soszynski has gone 4-1, with the only loss coming to Brandon Vera at UFC 102. He’s a pretty well rounded fighter, and actually has more pro fights than Bonnar. He’s a solid striker and is proficient in submissions as well.

Breakdown: In the first fight, Soszynski was getting the better of the action standing, so I expect him to keep the same game plan. Bonnar really needs this win, but since the first fight was so recent, I don’t really see how he could have improved the things he needed to improve on to get the better of Soszynki in a rematch. His best chance is to probably get this fight to the ground, but in the end, I think Soszynski gets the unanimous decision win he was heading towards before the cut stopped the first fight.

Kurt Pellegrino vs. George Sotiropolous: This is a fight that could determine the next challenger to the winner of the Frankie Edgar/B.J. Penn rematch.

Sotiropolous has been extremely impressive, going 5-0 since appearing on the 6th season of the Ultimate Fighter. Most recently, Sotiropolous soundly beat former title challenger Joe Stevenson via unanimous decision at UFC 110. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and his BJJ against Stevenson (also a black belt) was absolutely sick. He controlled that entire fight. His standup game is improving as well.

Pellegrino has won his past four UFC fights, most recently beating Fabricio Camoes via submission at UFC 111. That was a very close fight before Pellegrino locked in the choke at the end of the 2nd round. Pellegrino is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and has recently said he’s not afraid of Sotiropolous’ ground game. He comes from a wrestling background.

Breakdown: Sotiropolous is the narrow favorite on the betting lines. He’ll have the reach advantage come fight night, and in my opinion, has better BJJ skills, at least in the way that he uses them in MMA. Pellegrino has had a career resurgence in the past year and a half, but Sotiropolous’ absolutely dominating performance over Joe Stevenson has me convinced. Sotiropolous via submission in the 2nd.

UFC 116 Open Workout Highlights

Tim — Thu, 01 Jul 2010 05:15:43 +0000

Great video with some of the highlights of the UFC 116 open workouts. Notice Lesnar going with the southpaw stance in some of the footage? Some reports indicate that Lesnar will use that stance come Saturday night, believing that it helps his wrestling.

Thanks to heavy.com for the video:

Shane Carwin Predicts KO of Brock Lesnar on ESPN

Tim — Thu, 01 Jul 2010 05:08:57 +0000

Shane Carwin was a guest on Sportscenter yesterday, and predicted a KO win over Brock Lesnar:

UFC 114:Rampage vs. Evans Preview and Predictions

Tim — Fri, 28 May 2010 06:06:59 +0000

The main event of UFC 114, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Rashad Evans, has been in the works for quite awhile. Just as the rivalry between the two reached a fever pitch, the fight was put on hold as Jackson pursued a role in the upcoming “A-Team” movie. All the trash talking will finally come to an end (or will at least pause) on Saturday as the two former light heavyweight champions will finally square off.

Diego Sanchez vs. John Hathaway: Sanchez will make his return to the UFC’s welterweight divison after losing a lightweight title fight against B.J. Penn at UFC 107. Prior to the loss against Penn, Sanchez had reeled off four consecutive wins, including two wins in the welterweight class. He first contemplated the move to lightweight after consecutive losses to Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch. In his career, Sanchez is 23-3, with an impressive 10-3 record in the UFC. He mixes decent striking with solid wrestling and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills as well as a motor that is constantly in high gear. Hathaway will be fighting in the United States for the first time in his professional career. He owns a 3-0 UFC record with wins over Thomas Egan, Rick Story and Paul Taylor, all at events that took place in Europe. Needless to say, he’s making a big jump up in competition in this one. That’s not to say that he isn’t a capable opponent. He’s very effective from top position, though it’s going to be difficult for him to get that position on Sanchez, who is a better wrestler and is good in scrambles. Hathaway’s striking game doesn’t compare with Sanchez’s either. He’s a tough fighter and can probably hang in for awhile with Sanchez, but I think his chances of winning this fight are slim to none. Hathaway is only 22 and will continue to improve, but he’s not at Sanchez’s level yet. Sanchez via submission in the 2nd.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Jason Brilz: Nogueira was originally scheduled to take on Forrest Griffin in the co-headlining bout, but a shoulder injury forced Griffin to pull out of the contest. Brilz took the fight on short notice. Nogueira made his UFC debut at UFC 106, impressively beating Luis Cane in the 1st round via TKO. He was scheduled to return against Brandon Vera at UFC 109, but a broken ankle forced him off that card. Nogueira is 18-3 in his MMA career, with victories over Alistair Overeem, Dan Henderson, Sakuraba, and Cane among others. He’s similar to his heavyweight twin brother Antonio Rodrigo in the fact that they are both black belts in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and also accomplished boxers. His boxing allowed him to completely pick apart Cane before he finished him off in their contest. He is a serious threat to make a run in the UFC’s light heavweight divsion. Brilz is an impressive 18-2 in his MMA career, though he hasn’t fought anyone anywhere near the class of Nogueira. He comes from a wrestling background, though the rest of his game needs a lot of work. I don’t see this fight lasting very long. Nogueira will outclass him in every aspect. Brilz should be commended for taking this fight on short notice against a top-tier light heavyweight, but this one could end violently. Nogueira via TKO in the 1st.

Todd Duffee vs. Mike Russow: Duffee makes his return to the Octagon following his impressive debut at UFC 102, where he knocked out Tim Hague in seven seconds. He’s 6-0 in his career, with all 6 wins coming via stoppage. He’s an extremely powerful heavyweight with improving all-around skills. He doesn’t really have much of a wrestling background, but has made a name for himself with his pure strength and athleticism. Russow bounced around regional promotions in the Chicago area, and is also a Chicago police officer. He’s 12-1 in his MMA career, and won his UFC debut over Justin McCully at UFC 102. He mainly utilizes his wrestling skills, though he’s also won eight of his fights via submission. The level of competition of the opponents he’s submitted is a large factor however. I think he’s going to have big problems if he tries to stand and strike with Duffee, and I’m not convinced that Russow’s wrestling background is strong enough for him to control Duffee that way either. Russow is a tough opponent, but even though I think the Duffee hype-machine is way out of control, Duffee should find this a winnable fight. Duffee via TKO in the 2nd.

Michael Bisping vs. Dan Miller: This bout got bounced up to co-main event status due to the injury to Forrest Griffin forced him out of the contest with Nogueira. Bisping has dropped two of his last three fights, with a victory over Denis Kang sandwiched between the KO loss to Dan Henderson, and a unanimous decision loss to Wanderlei Silva at UFC 110. Overall, Bisping is 18-3 in his MMA career, and boasts a strong 8-3 UFC record. He’s mainly known for his striking. Although not exactly powerful, his style allows him to outpoint most of his opponents. Additionally, Bisping has shown much better grappling skills in recent fights. He may not be a danger to submit anyone off his back, but he’s learned how to use his Brazlilian Jiu Jitsu to keep himself out of danger and more importantly, get himself in better position to get the fight back standing. Miller has dropped his past two fights in the UFC. He lost to Chael Sonnen at UFC 98 and Demian Maia at UFC 109, both via unanimous decision. Bisping doesn’t have Sonnen’s wrestling skills or Maia’s BJJ skills, but he does possess enough of an all-around game to give Miller problems. I think Miller will get outclassed on his feet, and though he is a better grappler than Bisping, he’s not quite good enough there to submit Bisping. Miller’s a tough competitor and has enough skill to pose a threat, but in the end I think Bisping will get the nod. Bisping via unanimous decision.

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Rashad Evans: As one of the most hyped “grudge matches” in UFC history, this fight has a lot of buzz going for it right now. Jackson is coming off filming for the “A-Team” movie, which has had some question his training and mindset for this fight. He was last seen in the Octagon at UFC 96, where he defeated Evans’ teammate Keith Jardine. Jackson has fought some of the best light heavyweights in MMA, defeating the likes of Chuck Liddell (twice), Ricardo Arona, Wanderlei Silva, and Dan Henderson in his career. He posseses vicious knockout power to go along with decent boxing technique and underrated takedown defense. He claims to be in great shape and looks to be focused, but the questions about his motivation and training will persist until the fight.

Evans recovered from the KO loss to Lyoto Machida to defeat Thiago Silva via unanimous decision at UFC 108. In that fight, he mainly utilized his wrestling background, but was staggered and nearly finished by Silva in the 3rd round. It was later revealed that Silva was battling an injury going into the fight, so it’s possible a healthy Silva could have finished Evans in the third round. Evans is 14-1-1 in his MMA career and held the light heavyweight championship after beating Forrest Griffin at UFC 92 before losing the belt to Machida at UFC 98. I’ve always thought that there were many aspects of Evans’ game that are overrated. He is a solid wrestler and comes from a collegiate wrestling background, but he is far from elite in that department. His striking is often overrated because of his vicious knockout of Chuck Liddell at UFC 88, but he was getting beaten on his feet by Griffin before catching a leg kick and dropping him and was blown out by Machida in their title fight. Being outstruck by Machida is nothing to be ashamed of, but Evans barely even landed a punch in that fight. His footwork and head movement are often praised, but in reality, it’s mostly useless and inefficient movement. His footwork often leaves him flat footed and unable to counter skilled strikers. Those flawed aspects of his game could prove fatal against Jackson, who besides being very powerful, is also a pretty skilled boxer. Jackson’s defensive wrestling is very solid, and I don’t think Rashad will have much success in that department either. As you can tell, I’m having a hard time finding a way that Evans can win this fight. I think all signs point to a dominating performance from Jackson, and most likely a victory via stoppage. Evans’ chin is closer to glass than it is granite, and I expect it to be tested in this one. All this hype and trash talking will come to a crashing halt with one hook from Rampage. Jackson via KO in the 2nd.

Preliminary Card Predictions:

Dong Hyun Kim over Amir Sadollah via unanimous decision

Efrain Escudero over Dan Lauzon via TKO in the 2nd

Melvin Guillard over Waylon Lowe via TKO in the 1st

Luis Cane over Cyrille Diabate via TKO in the 2nd

Aaron Riley over Joe Brammer via unanimous decision

Ryan Jensen over Jesse Forbes via submission in the 1st