MMA Land

Hendo's debut should be at 205

2009-12-10T12:17:00.000-08:00

On Monday, news spread across the MMA world that Dan Henderson signed with Strikeforce. It's a big deal for a couple of reasons: Henderson is a former 2-time Pride champion and a legend in the sport, he's been featured on The Ultimate Fighter and was one of the UFC's most flexible fighters. He brings much-needed validity to Strikeforce's 185 and 205-pound divisions.

So how should Strikeforce use Dan Henderson?

There is talk that he could face middleweight champion Jake Shields on the proposed CBS show in April. Getting him on CBS is a good move, but pitting him against Shields is not.

Henderson should face light-heavyweight Gegard Mousasi right away. If he doesn't who is going to fight Mousasi? Strikeforce literally doesn't have another top-15 205-pounded under contract and there is no one of interest from Dream who could come to the states, either. If Henderson fights at middleweight first, it means Mousasi wouldn't appear for Strikeforce for quite awhile.

Also, what if Dan Henderson loses to Jake Shields? It's not likely considering the size, strength and experience advantages that Henderson holds over Shields, but in MMA anything is possible. And it would take a lot of luster off a potential title fight with Mousasi. Would people want to see the Henderson who knocked out Bisping fight for the title or the Henderson who just lost to Jake Shields?

If Henderson loses to Mousasi, which I believe is a strong possibility, it's much easier to drop down and sell a fight at middleweight. The UFC took the same path when he came over from Pride and fought Rampage Jackson first before going down to take on 185-champ Anderson Silva.

While either path isn't a death sentence for Henderson, it just makes more sense to have him start at 205. I hope Strikeforce agrees.

UFC 107 Predictions: The Main Card

2009-12-07T13:27:00.001-08:00

On paper UFC 107 is one of the better cards of the last quarter of 2009, and it too fell victim to the injury bug. Heavyweight prospect Todd Duffee was supposed to get his first big test against Paul Buentello but pulled out in late October. Jon Fitch, meanwhile, was fighting Thiago Alves for a whole three seconds before it was revealed Alves hurt his knee.

Still this is a very solid card, and one that is tough for me to pick because headliners BJ Penn and Diego Sanchez are two of my favorite fighters in the sport. Nonetheless, here it goes.

BJ Penn (14-5-1) vs. Diego Sanchez (21-2)
I've been a fan of Sanchez since watching the first season of The Ultimate Fighter. Even though he's an odd ball, he always comes across as genuine and regardless of his personality, you can't deny the intensity that he brings into the octagon each time out. While I don't think he's being given enough credit against Penn, the champ should be able to withstand an early onslaught and pick Diego apart on the feet as the fight goes into the later rounds.
The pick: Penn

Frank Mir (12-4) vs. Cheick Kongo (25-5-1)
At first I wasn't all that jazzed about this fight. Then I saw the interviews with Kongo calling Mir a "big mouth." Love it. If Kongo can keep the fight standing up, I'll love it even more. And really, is Mir that great at taking people down? He usually gets tackled and then looks for submissions, so it will interesting to see if his wrestling is good enough to get Kongo to the mat, where he clearly has an advantage. For some reason, I think Kongo will land a big blow that drops Mir and he'll find a way to pound him out.
The pick: Kongo

Kenny Florian (11-4) vs. Clay Guida (25-10)
Florian said it himself: at some point in this fight he's going to be on his back. The question is how much time exactly will be spent on the back? Considering that Guida now has strategist Greg Jackson in his corner, you can expect him to go for takedowns nonstop. Florian, though, should be quick enough to negate some of these takedowns and in doing so, he'll expose Guida's lack of stand-up skills and do enough damage on the feet to win a close split decision.
The pick: Florian

Jon Fitch (20-3) vs. Mike Pierce (10-2)
Does the UFC hate Jon Fitch? It always seems like he's in the obligatory "blah" match of the card and this time it's no different. Maybe Pierce is better than I am giving him credit for, but his win over an unmotivated Brock Larson isn't looking so bright now. And I can't see him hurting Fitch or avoiding his takedowns, thus it has boring decision written all over it. If Fitch is serious about making another run at the title, he needs to demand some bigger names in 2010.
The pick: Fitch

Paul Buentello (27-10) vs. Stefan Struve (18-3)
I found new respect for Struve when his head was sliced open at UFC 99 and he still managed to slap a rear-naked choke on Denis Stojnic despite blood squirting everywhere. He's young but possess the submission game necessary to beat Buentello, who has seven losses on his record due to tap out. Buentello does have motivation to put on a good show considering it's his first time back in the UFC since 2006, but I expect Struve to take a lot of punishment before finding a submission late in round three.
The pick: Struve

UFC 107 Predictions: The Prelims

2009-11-29T18:51:00.000-08:00

I hate the Video Game Awards. If you haven't heard yet, Spike can't show any UFC 107 prelim fights because of its obligations to air the highly-anticipated 2009 Video Game Awards. I'm a little bitter, yes.

The good news is this isn't the strongest preliminary card in the world, so perhaps we're not missing much, though it does feature some fighters worth keeping an eye on such as Alan Belcher and Johny Hendricks.

Here are my picks:

Kevin Burns (8-3) vs. TJ Grant (14-3)
Burns seems to prefer the stand up game, as seen in his two striking wars with Anthony Johnson. Grant, on the other hand, is a more versatile grappler with some solid wrestling that he displayed in his unanimous decision loss to undefeated Don Hyun Kim. Grant is better overall and should ride his grappling edge to an easy decision.
The pick: Grant

DaMarques Johnson (9-7) vs. Edgar Garcia (7-1)
I can't figure Johnson out. He was USA's golden boy on The Ultimate Fighter Season 9 but was manhandled by James Wilks at the finale in July. Yet he beat the Brit's Nick Osipczak, albeit in a sloppy slugfest, who impressed me with his win over Matt Riddle at UFC 105. Despite his mediocre record, Johnson's aggression and willingness to slug should give problems to Garcia, who was super hesitant in his UFC debut loss to Brad Blackburn back in July.
The pick: Johnson

Rousimar Palhares (9-2) vs. Lucio Linhares (13-4)
Ironically, Linhares has most recently been fighting for M-1 Global, Dana White's favorite company in the whole world, and he has a loss on his record to Thales Leites, who the UFC cast off to Canada. The BJJ-focused Linhares is riding a five-fight win streak while Palhares, also a submissions expert, hasn't fought in nearly a year and that was against a past-his-prime Jeremy Horn. I give the edge to Linares simply because he should be a tad sharper.
The pick: Linhares

Johny Hendricks (6-0) vs. Ricardo Funch (7-0)
Hendricks barely broke a sweat in his knockout win over Amir Soddollah at UFC 101 and now he meets the newcomer Funch, a Brazilian who is somewhat of a mystery given the lack of video on him. Hendricks himself said he only found one clip of Funch on Youtube while prepping for the bout. Both are unbeaten but Hendricks has the better pedigree as a national-champion wrestler and I really don't expect Funch to match that level of grappling.
The pick: Hendricks

Matt Wiman (10-5) vs. Shane Nelson (13-5)
If BJ Penn is fighting on a card, Shane Nelson is not far behind. I really have not been impressed by the Hawaiian Nelson from his stint on The Ultimate Fighter to his most recent loss to Aaron Riley at UFC 101. Wiman isn't going to light-up the lightweight division anytime soon, either, but he seems to have more heart (and power) when he fights, so I'm going with the Handsome one by knockout.
The pick: Wiman

Alan Belcher (13-5) vs. Wilson Gouveia (12-6)
Belcher put on a striking display against Yoshihiro Akiyama at UFC 100 but gave up one too many takedowns and fell to a close decision. Gouveia hasn't fought since being dismantled by Nate Marquardt in January. Belcher is also closer to home being from Mississippi and I see this being a stand-up battle that should play into his strengths. This is Belcher's fight to lose.
The pick: Belcher

Preview: TUF 10 Finale Predictions

2009-11-27T09:23:00.000-08:00

While The Ultimate Fighter Season 10 didn't quite live up to the hype, it has given us some new blood to pump into the UFC's Heavyweight division. And as always, the UFC has given us two relevant fights with two of the sports brightest up-and-coming fighters to headline the card.

Here are my predictions:

Jon Jones (9-0) vs. Matt Hamill (7-2)
If Jones were entering the NFL draft, he'd be one of those "can't miss" prospects. Nicknamed "Bones," he's as atheltic as they come in the division and his combination of good wrestling with unorthodox striking makes him dangerous to even some of the more established vets in the division. Hamill, though, is a big step up from the likes of Jake O'Brien because he does possess knockout power and may be able to control Jones with a disciplined takedown strategy. This is a tough fight to call, but I think Jones has more ways to do damage and will eek out a close decision in the Fight of the Night.
The pick: Jones

Frankie Edgar (10-1) vs. Matt Veach (11-0)
Edgar, a top contender in the lightweight division, was supposed to face Kurt Pellegrino on this card before he pulled out due to injury. Enter unbeaten Matt Veach, who is 1-0 in the UFC, and now has a huge opportunity to beat a top fighter on national TV. Unfortunately for him, Edgar isn't the type to get over-confident and his wrestling will be too good for Veach to overcome.
The pick: Edgar

Roy Nelson (13-4) vs. Brendan Schaub (5-0)
Schaub rubbed me the wrong way on the reality show for being overly cocky, but he always managed to back it up with wins. I don't see that changing against Nelson. Despite Big Country's experience edge, Schaub trains with better fighters (Shane Carwin for one) and has displayed the type of power that should give Nelson problems and turn him into a one-dimensional fighter who is always working for takedowns. That strategy will wear out Nelson and lead to a decision win for the former NFL player.
The pick: Schaub

Kimbo Slice (3-1) vs. Houston Alexander (9-4)
Part of me loves this fight because it has potential to be exciting, explosive and end with a bang. Part of me hates this fight because it reeks of the gimmicky matchmaking. Even if Kimbo wins, who does he fight next? How many stand-up guys can the UFC feed to him? And while I like Kimbo from the show, I don't see him winning this fight. Alexander should be quick enough with his hands to land more blows on Kimbo and knock him out in the first round.
The pick: Alexander

Feature: Best MMA Radio on the Net

2009-11-26T19:51:00.000-08:00

Growing up in St. Louis, I've always been an avid sports radio fan. From Cardinals' post-game shows to Blues talk to Rams spring practice workouts, I could not get enough sports talk . But despite the sports media industry being bigger than it has ever been in the past, the top names in the business rarely, if ever, talk MMA.

Thus I have turned to the Internet to get my MMA fix and surprisingly, there are a lot of options to choose from. Virtually every major MMA site hosts a weekly show or podcast and is able to score some pretty solid interviews. Unfortunately, not all these shows are very good.

Here is my guide to the best radio/podcasts on the net:

Best show: The Jordan Breen Show
When I began downloading shows from Sherdog, I'd frequently hear this young, sarcastic voice chime in with obscure MMA references that were foreign to me and went completely over my head. That voice was Jordan Breen.

According the web site, he's only 23 years old. But I have yet to find anyone on the major MMA sites that is as knowledgeable and smart and opinionated about the sport as Breen. If you follow him on Twitter, you'll learn quickly that the dude watches everything MMA and it shows on the air, as he's able to breakdown fights in ways that no other site can match. But more than that, he's actually entertaining too. He doesn't try too hard to be funny like so many other radio hosts, but chimes in with a joke when necessary and his opinions are always backed with solid arguments. He also has a loyal fan base with routine callers that add flavor and color to the show.

If there is a downside to the show, it's that sometimes Breen can go too in-depth about lesser-known fight cards and that may test your patience. But the show is run smoothly enough that even the slow parts never get tedious.

You can hear him on Tuesdays and Thursdays from noon to 2 (Pacific) at Sherdog.com or you can download his archives at sherdog.com/radio (also one of the links on my homepage).

Runner-up: MMA Junkie Radio
It was hard to choose just one here, because many of the other shows are solid and just about equal. MMA Junkie gets the nod because it's a daily show and it routinely features interviews with some of the sports top stars, including a great piece with Dana White at UFC 106. Frank Trigg used to co-host, but the show hasn't lost much steam since his departure because the regular crew is pretty consistent, though not always the most knowledgeable in terms of breaking down fights. You can download all their show archives at mmajunkie.com/radio.

Best preview/roundtable show: Sherdog.com
In terms of preview shows, Sherdog once again takes the cake. Before every major UFC and Strikeforce event, all the regular hosts get together and make predictions for each fight including picking the method and round of finish. What makes the show click is all the different personalities on display, which somehow mesh together perfectly, and the fun had from keeping a running tab of the best and worse guesses at each show. It's the perfect way for a die hard fan to get pumped for an event.

Runner up: Luke Thomas, MMA Nation
Thomas is the Editor-In-Chief at bloodyelbow.com, probably the best blog on the net for MMA news. He also hosts a weekly radio show on 107.6 The Fan in Washington D.C. every Saturday afternoon called MMA Nation and if there is a big event that night he does a good job of breaking down the card for the casual fan. He won't get too bogged down in preliminary fights but is savvy enough to focus on the match-ups people most want to see.

Best post/recap show: Beatdown After the Bell, Sherdog.com
What can I say? Sherdog radio is king. After each major event, the site hosts a recap show that usually lasts about two hours and breaks down all the fights on the card. Again this is really a show for more hardcore fans, though casual ones can learn a lot from hearing the crew analyze what went right and what went wrong for certain fighters. The guys also take calls and it's fun to hear fan reactions so quickly after an event.

Runner up: Steve Cofield, Yahoo! and ESPN 1100
Cofield is a blogger at Yahoo! Sports, but he also hosts a daily sports show on ESPN 1100 and does his recap shows out of that station from 10:30 to 1 am (Pacific) after most UFC events. Love him or hate him, Cofield is an entertaining guy. I wouldn't listen to a regular sports talk offering from him, but his MMA knowledge is well above average and he is never short on opinions. He also scores some great live interviews after the events. You can find the link to his Yahoo! MMA blog on my home page.

Best podcast: Josh Gross, SI
If you're looking for a quick 1-hour show to take to the gym on your I-Pod, this is the show. Gross formerly worked at Sherdog and is now over at Sports Illustrated, and he's one of the best writers covering the sport today. He is also savvy about the business side of things and just about better than anybody does a good job of staying unbiased with his views. You can't go wrong with the guy.

Runner up: MMA Hour w/Ariel Hawani, AOL Fanhouse
AOL Fanhouse seems to really be pushing their MMA content and it's paying off. Hawani is always out interviewing someone and uploading videos on the site, and now he hosts a weekly show called MMA Hour with recaps of the previous week and previews of the week ahead. He's one of the better personalities covering the sport today.

Fighter Forecaster

2009-11-20T22:46:00.000-08:00

The intent with the Fighter Forecast feature is to not only provide one location to find all announced and rumored upcoming fights, but to play Joe Silva for a day and fill in the blanks with fights that I think could happen at the proposed future cards.

My plan is to update this feature regularly (at least once a week) as new results come in and new cards are announced. Currently it will only feature UFC cards but I will hopefully add a Strikeforce component in the future.

All confirmed fights (including some rumors) are in white while my predictions are in blue italics. *Updated last: 11/20/09

DECEMBER
TUF 10 Finale (12/5/09)
1. Jon Jones vs. Matt Hamill
2. Frankie Edgar vs. Matt Veach
3. Finalist 1 vs. Finalist 2
4. Kimbo Slice vs. Houston Alexander
5. *Randall Wallace vs. Brian Stann
6. *Dennis Hallman vs. John Howard
7. *Mark Bocek vs. Joe Brammer

UFC 107 in Memphis (12/12/09)
1. BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez (LW Title)
2. Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo
3. Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida
4. Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce
5. Stefan Struve vs. Paul Buentello
6. *Alan Belcher vs. Wilson Gouveia (free on Spike)
7. *Johny Hendricks vs. Ricardo Funch (free on Spike)
8. *Shane Nelson vs. Matt Wiman
9. *Rousimar Palhares vs. Lucio Linhares
10. *DeMarques Johnson vs. Edgar Garcia
11. *Kevin Burns vs. TJ Grant

JANUARY
UFC 108 in Las Vegas (1/02/10)
1. Rashad Evans vs. Thiago Silva
2. Junior Dos Santos vs.
3. Paul Daley vs. Carlos Condit
4. Tyson Griffin vs. Jim Miller
5. Ben Saunders vs. Dustin Hazelett
6. *Joe Louzon vs. Sam Stout (free on Spike)
7. *Sean Sherk vs. Rafael Oliveira (free on Spike)
8. *Shane Nelson vs. Matt Wiman
9. *Dan Louzon vs. Cole Miller
10. *Martin Kampmann vs. Rory Markham
11. *Mike Pyle vs. Jake Ellenberger
12. * Mark Munoz vs. Ryan Jensen

UFC Fight Night 20 in Virginia (1/11/10)
1. Gray Maynard vs. Nate Diaz
2. Efrain Escudero vs. Evan Dunham
3. Tom Lawler vs. Aaron Simpson
4. Chris Leben vs. Jay Silva
5. *Rick Story vs. Jesse Lennox
6. *Jeremy Stephans vs. Nik Lentz
7. *Kyle Bradley vs. Rafael Dos Anjos
8. *Tim Credeur vs. Mike Massenzio

FEBRUARY
UFC 109 in Las Vegas (2/06/10)
1. Anderson Silva vs. Vitor Belfort (MW Title)
2. Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman
3. Nate Marquardt vs. Chael Sonnen
4. Matt Hughes vs. Josh Koscheck
5. Matt Serra vs. Frank Trigg
6. *Dan Miller vs. Damien Maia (free on Spike)
7. *Nate Quarry vs. Thomas Drwal (free on Spike)
8. *Mike Russow vs. Tim Hague
9. *Rolles Gracie vs. Mustapha Al-Turk
10. *Ronnys Torres vs. Melvin Guillard
11. *Rob Emerson vs. Phillipe Nover

UFC 110 in Australia (2/21/10)
1. Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
2. Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping
3. Mirko Cro Cop vs. Ben Rothwell
4. Ryan Bader vs. Keith Jardine
5. Don Hyun Kim vs. Chris Lytle
6. *Krystoff Soszynski vs. Stephan Bonnar
7. *James Te Huna vs. Igor Pokrajac
8. *George Sotiropolous vs. Fabricio Camoes
9. *Eric Schafer vs. Alexander Gustafsson
10. *Terry Etim vs. Mac Danzig

MARCH
UFC 111 in Newark, NJ (3/13/10)
1. Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy (WW Title)
2. Frankie Edgar vs. Kenny Florian
3. Jon Jones vs. Luis Cane
4. Ricardo Almeida vs. Paulo Thiago
5. Kurt Pelligrino vs. Clay Guida
6. *Anthony Johnson vs. Matt Brown (free on Spike)
7. *Ross Pearson vs. Denis Siver (free on Spike)
8. *Eliot Marshall vs. Steve Cantwell

APRIL

UFC Fight Night 21 in ??? (4/??/10)
1. Mike Swick vs. Martin Kampmann
2. Brian Foster vs. Jacob Volkmann
3.

UFC 112 in ??? (4/??/10)
1. Shane Carwin vs.
2. Tyson Griffin vs. Diego Sanchez
3. Paul Daley vs. Ben Saunders
4. Denis Kang vs. Kendall Grove
5. *Amir Sodallah vs. Nick Osipczak
6. *Patrick Cote vs. Alessio Sakara
7.

MAY
UFC 113 in Montreal (5/1/10)
1. Lyoto Machida vs. Shogun Rua (LHW Title)
2. Forrest Griffin vs. Rich Franklin
3. Thiago Alves vs. Carlos Condit
4. Marcus Davis vs. John Hathaway

Feature: Top ten teammate fights

2009-11-17T18:13:00.000-08:00

UFC President Dana White fields this question all the time: would the UFC ever force teammates to fight each other? His answer is always yes, but we have yet to see it in action unless you count Extreme Couture members Amir Soddollah and Johnny Hendricks fighting at UFC 101 back in August -- I do not.

Since there are a slew of big fights I'd still like to see happen, I've listed the top-10 match-ups I'd make if we lived in a bizarro world where teammates had no problems fighting each other.

10. Dan Henderson vs. Krzysztof Soszynski
If you watch the video of Henderson's knockout at UFC 100, you'll see someone in the background jumping up and down like a giddy school girl. That person is Krysztof Soszynski, a training partner and good friend of Henderson's at Team Quest. Soszynski isn't at the same level of Henderson, so the fight wouldn't be all that close. But I just like the idea of Hendo socking his friend in the face.

9. Kenny Florian vs. Kurt Pellegrino
These Northeasterns are also close friends and training partners. Sensing a theme here? In numerous Internet videos Pellegrino and Florian refer to each other as "best friends" and Kurt has even joked that Kenny sings to him often. More importantly, they're both top lightweights and BJJ black belts, so it would interesting to see if one could finish the other.

8. Jon Fitch vs. Josh Koscheck
The welterweight trio of Fitch, Koscheck and Mike Swick have given UFC matchmaker Joe Silva headaches since they all train at AKA and refuse to fight each other unless it's for the title. I had a hard time picking just two to fight, but Fitch and Koscheck are a tad better than Swick so why not pit the best two against each other? I'd take Koscheck by the way. He has better stand up and has more weapons to finish the fight.

7. Antonio Roridgo Nogueira vs. Junior Dos Santos
Both Ed Soares' clients, the Brazilians Nogueira and Dos Santos also train together as part of the very exclusive team Blackhouse, which is kind of like the cool clique in high school that won't let the unpopular kids party with them. It's a shame they won't fight in real life considering both are top-10 heavyweights and it would give the shallow UFC division another fight it desperately needs. I like Nogueira to withstand Dos Santos' lethal standup, get the fight to the ground and submit his protege.

6. Cung Le vs. Anthony Johnson
This is another student vs. teacher fight, though I'm not sure the student, Johnson, isn't better right now that his teacher Cung Le. Regardless, both guys prefer to standup in fights so the potential for real fireworks is high and someone would likely get knocked out.

5. Jake Shields vs. Nick Diaz
Shields used to be the EliteXC Welterweight champion, but moved to middleweight because there weren't enough fights for him at that weight class in Strikeforce. Diaz has fought at middleweight in the past but moved back to welterweight to find more fights. Confused yet? A lot of the fuzziness in Strikeforce would be cleared up if Shields and Diaz, training partners out of San Jose, just got it over with and fought each other. But alas, I dream.

4. Tyson Griffin vs. Gray Maynard
This is kind of like Superman 3, where Christopher Reeves has to fight an evil version of himself. How do you defeat someone who fights like you? Who thinks like you? Who knows you better than you know yourself? That's what Maynard vs. Griffin would be: a battle of two power wrestlers both with improving standup and both in search of that star-making moment. I wouldn't be shocked if the Extreme Couture training partners ended up fighting for the belt as soon as 2010.

3. Rashad Evans vs. Keith Jardine
If you don't know the backstory, Evans and Jardine met while filming The Ultimate Fighter Season 2 and both landed at Greg Jackson's camp in New Mexico, where they've blossomed into two of the most exciting light-heavyweight fighters in the UFC. They insist they will never fight but Dana White has said he'll make them fight if he has to. Well, White waited too long. Now that Jardine's career has fallen off and Evans will presumably stay in the title picture for awhile longer, this fight isn't happening anytime soon.

2. Randy Couture vs. Forrest Griffin
This would mark the first time a fighter and a coach from The Ultimate Fighter squared off against each other inside the Octagon (albeit from different teams since Forrest trained under Chuck Liddell on the show). Still, Forrest has spent years training at Randy's gym in Las Vegas and they seem to have grown close over the years. I'd love to see them scrap if for no other reason it would represent a clash of two generations: Randy from the old guard and Forrest from the post reality group that changed the face of the UFC.

1. Anderson Silva vs. Lyoto Machida
This is the superfight all diehard MMA fans want to see, but can't because Silva and Machida are both Ed Soares' clients and have trained together in the past. It's a shame not because it would be a boom for MMA -- I'm really not sure that it would be huge on PPV -- but because they're arguably the two best strikers on the planet and these types of fights just don't come along very often. I give the edge to the Spider; he should be smart enough to find a way around Machida's karate puzzle, and fast enough to land critical blows that would, for the first time, finish the Dragon.

UFC 106 Predictions: The Prelims

2009-11-17T15:47:00.000-08:00

While the top stars garner all the attention on the aired main cards, some of the best fights usually go unseen hours earlier. While I don't think UFC 106's preliminary bouts are especially enticing, there are a number of fighters worth watching (Jake Rosholt, Paulo Thiago, Ben Saunders) to see who takes a step forward into the spotlight and who will take a step back. UFC 106 also marks the Zuffa debuts of prospects Jacob Volkmann and Fabricio Camoes.

Spike Prelims:

Ben Saunders (7-1-2) vs. Marcus Davis (21-6)
You could argue that Marcus Davis beat Dan Hardy at UFC 99, and no one would call you crazy. That said, Davis appeared to have take the loss poorly (he wouldn't shake Hardy's hand in the cage) and that may have taken a toll on his mind. Saunders, meanwhile, looked overmatched at the same event against the hand speed of Mike Swick. If it goes to the ground, Davis will probably have a slight edge, and I expect he might do just that.
The pick: Davis

Kendall Grove (12-6) vs. Jake Rosholt (6-1)
Kendall Grove has lost his mojo. Seriously though, something has been missing from Grove's last fights and I can't put my finger on it. Lack of focus? Poor game-planning? Whatever it is, the Ultimate Fighter winner doesn't appear all that concerned about losing and that bugs me. So I expect Rosholt to win a decision.
The pick: Rosholt

Rest of the Prelims:

Paulo Thiago (12-1) vs. Jacob Volkmann (10-0)
This is going to be a good fight. Jacob "Christmas" Volkmann is undefeated, he's coming off a win at Bellator and he trains with a good camp at the Minnesota Martial Arts Academy. Thiago suffered a decision loss to Jon Fitch at UFC 100, but had some solid submission attempts in the fight and more than held his own. Even though I suspect Thiago is still a bit overrated, I give him the edge because less is known about Volkmann and if he can beat top-15 caliber competition.
The pick: Thiago

Brock Larson (27-3) vs. Brian Foster (14-4)
Both fights are coming off losses, so clearly motivation will not be a problem in this fight. Foster especially is staring at a 0-2 record inside the Octagon should he lose this fight, which could mean an exit from the UFC. Still, I like Larson to control Foster with his wrestling and win a fairly easy decision.
The pick: Larson

Caol Uno (25-12-4) vs. Fabricio Camoes (10-4)
Nicknamed "Morango", Camoes is my upset pick of the prelims. Although many people thought Uno did enough to beat Spencer Fisher in his last fight, I came away thinkining that Uno had lost a step and that his reliance on finding submissions is catching up to him. Camoes, on the other hand, has finished his last four fights and is riding a seven-fight win streak.
The pick: Camoes

George Sotiropoulus (10-2) vs. Jason Dent (19-10)
This fight shouldn't be all that close. Dent overachieved on The Ultimate Fighter: Season 9 and has never been considered much of a prospect in the 155-pound division. Sotiropoulus, though maybe not a future title contender, is far more savvy on the ground and should find his way to a submission victory.
The pick: Sotiropoulus

UFC 106 Predictions: Main Card

2009-11-17T13:40:00.000-08:00

No, UFC 106 isn't the mega event we all wanted it to be. But given the health problems of Brock Lesnar and Mark Coleman, the card probably could have been much worse. And while the main event rematch between Tito Ortiz and Forrest Griffin doesn't exactly get me excited, the rest of the card is solid and should provide a fun night of fights. If nothing else, some questions will be answered in the light-heavyweight division and two potential match-ups for Randy Couture could emerge. Here are my picks.

Main Card:

Forrest Griffin (16-6) vs. Tito Ortiz (16-6-1)
The UFC has done a pretty good job marketing this fight given what they have to work with. One fighter is coming off a long layoff after major back surgery and the other fighter is coming off the most embarrasing loss of his career. I like Forrest to win late in this match because I'd be shocked if Tito's condition was up to par his first fight back. I believe he will gas and when he does Forrest will pound him out.
The pick: Griffin

Josh Koscheck (15-4) vs. Anthony Johnson (8-2)
Give props to the UFC for putting this fight together at the last minute and give props to both fighters for saying yes. As stated in my Nov./Dec. preview article, I do believe that Koscheck is at a disadvantage in the striking game, but he should be able to take Johnson to the ground whenever he wants. If he sticks to a game plan, Koscheck should win a frustrating decision for all the Rumble fans out there.
The pick: Koscheck

Amir Soddollah (2-1) vs. Phil Baroni (6-5)
I would have no problem watching this on a Fight Night on Spike, but it really has no business making the main card on a PPV. I understand that the UFC is trying to build up Soddollah, and with good reason considering the charisma and heart he showed on The Ulitimate Fighter, but Baroni just doesn't do it for me. That said, it does have the potential for a knockout and if someone is going down, it is Baroni.
The pick: Soddollah

Luiz Arthur Cane (10-1) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (17-3)
Cane could easily be undefeated, seeing as his only loss is a DQ against James Irvin in 2007. He's rebounded with three wins over solid, though not great competition, and will face the toughest test of his career in Nogueira, who is making his UFC debut. We've seen it before where fighters don't look sharp their first stint inside the Octagon, but given that Nogueira is more battled tested and better on the ground, he should hand Cane his first real defeat.
The pick: Nogueira

Karo Parisyan (18-5) vs. Dustin Hazelett (14-4)
Both guys are coming off long lay-offs, which usually means ring rust and conditioning issues. Both guys have the ability to end fights with submissions, but are unlikely to score a knockout. So while I expect a flurry of action early on, the later stages of the fight should slow down considerably and allow Parisyan to use his Judo skills to gain dominant positions and edge out a close decision.
The pick: Parisyan

Most Anticipated Fights Nov/Dec. Part 2

2009-10-30T17:57:00.000-07:00

5. Josh Koscheck vs. Anthony Johnson (UFC 106)
This is going to be a war. "Rumble" Johnson is as good a striker as there is in the welterweight division and Josh Koscheck likes to think he's one of the best strikers in the division. Both fighters will have limited training time due to the bout being added last minute and both guys will catapult themselves into title contention with a win.

4. Mike Swick vs. Dan Hardy (UFC 105)
This fight wouldn't have cracked the top 5 if the winner wasn't getting a title shot. But it's always fun to have a no.1 contender match because it raises the stakes and actually adds some context to a fight, which has been sorely lacking at many of the shows lately. Dan Hardy will likely be the underdog and could be a good value bet for any gamblers out there.

3. Mike Brown vs. Jose Aldo (WEC 44)
Talk about under-the-radar fights. Jose Aldo has been a roll lately and brings an unpredictability to the cage that is fun to watch. Brown is used to facing such skilled strikers, as he's notched two wins over former champ Urijah Faber, and continues to be one of the more underrated fighters in the sport. I wouldn't be shocked if this ended up being the fight of the year.

2. BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez (UFC 107)
The UFC never intended on sending BJ Penn to Memphis, but when Rampage flew the coop for Hollywood a main-event spot opened up in the heartland. I can't wait for this fight because not only are Penn and Sanchez two of my favorite fighters, but Sanchez always brings it to the cage even if his aggression sometimes works him. If Sanchez can control his chaos he does possess a ground-and-pound game that could give Penn fits.

1. Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers (Strikeforce 11/7)
Rocky eat your heart out. Brett Rogers, a guy who was fixing tires at Sams Club earlier this year, now gets the shot at Fedor, the world's no.1 heavyweight, in what is the epitome of the American Dream. Even better the fight is free on CBS and it could be a landmark fight for the sport of MMA if it delivers big ratings.

Most Anticipated Fights Nov/Dec.

2009-10-30T15:09:00.000-07:00

The end of the year is approaching but that doesn't mean 2009's best MMA is behind us. On the contrary, some of the biggest fights are just on the horizon. Here's a look at the bouts I'm most excited to see for the remainder of the year.

10. Kimbo Slice vs. ??? (TUF Finale or 107)
Kimbo's official debut -- most likely at TUF 10 Finale or UFC 107 -- is the mixed-martial arts equivalent of a guilty pleasure movie: you know you're not watching the best quality but you love it anyway. In all seriousness, if Kimbo does win (he's rumored to be facing Houston Alexander), will the UFC throw some bigger names Kimbo's way and risk him looking bad, or will he be fed a steady diet of stand-up only fighters?

9. Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera (UFC 105)
This is an odd match-up for sure. Couture is making his first appearance at light-heavyweight in a few years and Vera is coming off two somewhat lackluster wins against average opponents. And yet I can't wait to see what happens. If nothing else, it will help answer some questions regarding how much gas Couture has left in the tank and if it was wise for the UFC to give him a 6-fight deal.

8. Antonio Rogeria Nogueira vs. Luis Arthur Cane (UFC 106)
While everyone was complaining about Brock Lesnar dropping out of UFC 106, no one bothered to mention that this underrated gem hasn't gone anywhere. The fight will introduce Lil Nog to UFC fans, but we'll also move a step closer to determining the legitimacy of prospect Luis Cane and if he's a serious threat to the belt.

7. Jake Shields vs. Jason Mayhem Miller (Strikeforce 11/7)
With Fedor-Rogers hogging all the spotlight, the only title fight on the Nov. 7 card has gone overlooked. The bout not only determines the new Strikeforce middleweight champion, but for Shields it's another test at a weight class where his longevity is a question mark. I prefer to see him at 170, but if he keeps winning at 185 he may never want to go back. For Miller, it's a return from fighting in Japan and a chance to redeem himself for his horrible dance entrance at Dream 9.

6. Jon Jones vs. Matt Hamill (TUF 10 Finale)
Jones is one of the most hyped prospects in MMA and it's hard to argue with his undefeated record. But for sure this is his toughest test because Hamill is capable of shooting in and taking Jones to the mat. This could be a key moment in Hamill's career: is he a wrestler who goes for highlight-reel knockouts or is he smart enough to take it to the ground and win fights? For Jones, a win takes the hype machine to new heights and it could warrant a fight against the likes of Rich Franklin, Brandon Vera or Forrest Griffin.

Editor's Note: This is a 2-part series with the second part to be posted over the weekend.

MMA Fans Need to Stop Complaining

2009-10-28T11:52:00.000-07:00

It's been a LONG time since my last post, but I promise I will be writing more frequently from now on. Scanning through the various MMA sites and message boards, it has become obvious that there is still a need for good MMA commentary and analysis on the Internet, especially when you consider that 90 percent of the chatter out there is mostly whining and complaining about judges' decisions or fighters pulling out of big cards (Brock Lesnar, I'm talking to you).

For starters, I understand why people are upset about the Brock Lesnar/Shane Carwin fight being pushed back from November to UFC 108 in January. But what's puzzling is the outcry that the UFC is somehow trying to screw people out of $44.95.

Um, do you really think the UFC wanted their most polarizing fighter to get sick? Do you really think the UFC wanted to make the rematch between Tito Ortiz and Forrest Griffin the main event?

Of course not.

Forget that it's virtually impossible to replace a main event in less than four weeks. Forget that nearly all the main-event caliber fighters already have big fights scheduled and cannot be moved without causing more problems down the line. Forget that we will get to see Lesnar/Carwin on a bigger, better card in January.

What is the response from MMA fans? To complain, of course.

But guess what? If a PPV card is weak, you don't have to buy it! That's right, you can go to a bar to watch the fights. You can convince a friend to spend his money on the fights so you don't have to. You can follow the fight commentary that some of the great sites such as MMA Junkie or Sherdog provide for every event. Or here's an idea: you can skip the fights altogether and force the UFC to put together better cards in the future.

Either way, life will go on folks. Fighters get hurt. Fighters get sick. Things happen in life.

Life is not fair. Why expect the fight game to be any different?

Swick's injury raises new questions

2009-09-04T11:19:00.000-07:00

Bad news coming out of the U.K. today that Mike "Quick" Swick has suffered an injury and has pulled out of his no.1 contender bout with Martin Kampmann at UFC 103 in Dallas.

Crap. I was really looking forward to this fight. Not that either fighter presents any terribly new challenges to welterweight champ George St. Pierre, but the UFC would have put some effort building this fight and GSP's next title defense would have been more attractive due to it.

If Kampmann wins, does he still get a title shot?
The answer is probably yes, though beating Daley isn't much of a feat considering how easily Jake Shields dispatched of him last year in EliteXC. Maybe Daley has improved since then or maybe Shields is just that good. But Daley strikes me as one of those fighters the UFC signed to further promote in the U.K., and not necessarily someone primed to make a title run any time soon.

Where does Swick go from here?
It's unclear at this time what the extent of the injury is, but hopefully it's not something that will keep him out for longer than a few months. Even if it's relatively minor, he may have to build himself back up a bit to get a title shot considering that Jon Fitch, Carlos Condit and others will likely be right on his heels.

Does the injury open up a GSP vs. Anderson Silva super fight?
If Zuffa is looking for a silver lining, it could be that now is a better time than ever to have GSP heal up and put on the extra weight needed to face Silva at 185 pounds. It could easily be argued that Kampmann (assuming he can beat Daley) still needs to beat a top contender (Fitch, Thiago Alves or Josh Koscheck) before earning the title shot. That would leave GSP without a fight at the beginning of the year when he hopes to return from his groin injury. It would also solve the Anderson Silva problem in that he doesn't have an obvious opponent for his next match yet. I've never been a big fan of the fight myself, but it's something to think about.

First Post!

2009-09-01T16:08:00.000-07:00

I can honestly say I have no expectations for this blog. I haven't set a format and I don't have any kind of "master plan" to separate it from the one hundred other MMA blogs on the net. Guess I should probably do that.

A little about me... it's been about a year since I watched my first MMA fight. I was stuck in a hotel in Vancouver that carried the Spike channel, which just happened to be running a marathon of The Ultimate Fighter season 1.

I couldn't stop watching.

Consider for a moment that this is coming from a 26-year-old baseball fan from St. Louis who had never studied martial arts and previously shuddered at any mention of it (after all it was becoming so popular that is was going to takeover the world!) I thought people who watched MMA were dumb.

I was wrong.

What grabbed me was not the actual fighting (though very cool in its own right), but the personality of the fighters -- their hopes and dreams, their devotion to training, and the surprising development that I actually sympathized with these guys. When I got back to Los Angeles, I started following MMA news on the web; I read PPV results, watched videos on YouTube, and downloaded all the podcasts I could find. I'm sure longtime fans would still call me a newbie, and that's fine. All I know is I can't get enough and I need a place to write about my thoughts on this insanely addictive sport.

So, in the immortal words of octagon voice Bruce Buffer...

"We Are Live!"