Readers from 128 Countries

Journalistic cycles  are often driven by calender milestones so today I celebrate my first anniversary as a blogger--albeit it slightly tardy. 

I started Mobile Point View in April of 2007 primarily to frame and define my "personal brand", project and shape awareness of my industry perspective, e.g. my "thought leadership", and keep my eye  focused on the mobile industry and global business trends with a discipline to discuss my views.

Along the journey I found it also fed internal motivations such as a love/hate relationship with writting, and my wonderlust for "Adventure Roads" and "Adventure Capitalism." Plus, it feeds my spirit to learn more about other cultures and keep my skills sharp in making connections--both technical and human.  I've been told I've got a combinatorial world view which my blogging reflects, being part travelogue, wireless industry plus global commerce analysis, and my passionate interest in high growth markets such as China, Africa, and the Middle East.

Recognitions & Connections

An unexpected turn along the path has been the recognition of my views by technoscenti like Om Malik of DigOm, Gerry Purdee of Forrester Research and mobilista Rudy De Waele. A surprising approach by Mobile Messaging 2.0 to contribute to that corporate sponsored blog has led to additional "thought leadership" and recently my being tapped to be the Managing Editor of Mobile Messaging 2.0. So now I'm a "professional" journalist, meaning my meanderings drive revenue.

Another unexpected consequence of having a cyberspace billboard has been the people I've become acquainted with--gratifyingly in other countries, who have graciously shared their time, interests and expertise with me by reaching out and establishing a connection, especially Lars in Tokyo, Ben in Beijing, Mikki in Hong Kong, Tarek in Egypt, Feng in Beijing, James in London, and Mohammed in Iraq. Reflecting a modicum of success, the connectedness of the mobile industry and power of the internet, the number of others who I have met at conferences who entered a conversation with "I know you, I've read your blog!" has been surprising and energizing.

What I'm most proud of is being relevant and interesting to readers from 128 countries.   

After a year of blogging, I've got a slurry of mixed metrics on total visits (over 100,000 ), page views, time on blog, google juice, etc., but the one which I'm most proud of is the reflection of my reach and global view point.   Sidebar: Visit: Global Point View Ltd. my umbrella company which I consult under while looking for my next industry job. Having readers from so many countries reflects my purpose, passion and pursuits to illuminate the power of the mobile industry and its fundamentally global characteristics. 

Interesting Quirks of Where My Readers Are 

Some interesting aspects of my readership include:  9,600 visits from readers in India, 900 visits from readers in Pakistan, 30 visits from readers in Myanmar, over 740 visits from readers in Iran, and 400 vistis from readers in Nepal. I've got one regular reader in Foggaret el Arab, in the dead middle of Algeria and a population of 4,300. The snowiest reader must be in Bathurst Inlet, Nunavut, Canada--probably someone visiting the Lodge.

I guess that reflects the power of the web, the strength of interest in mobile communications, and once in a while my ability to strike a chord which resonates with a variety of people in diverse international locations. 

Here's a tally of reader countries as of June 2008

A Year in the Blog Life
	Visitors from 128 Countires
Americas (25)	Europe (40)	Asia (26)	Middle East (11)	Africa (26)
US	UK	Australia	Afghanistan	Algeria
Barbados	Andorra	Bangladesh	Bahrain	Botswana
Bolivia	Aserbaijian	Brunei	Egypt	Cameroon
Brazil	Austria	Cambodia	Iran	Canary Islands
Canada	Azores	China	Iraq	Cote D'Ivoire
Cayman Islands	Belgium	Fiji	Israel	Djibouti
Chile	Bosnia	Guam	Jordan	Ethopia
Columbia	Bulgaria	Hong Kong	Kuwait	Gambia
Costa Rica	Czech Republic	India	Oman	Ghana
Dominican Republic	Denmark	Indonesia	Qatar	Libya
Ecuador	Estonia	Japan	UAE	Madagasacar
Grenada	Faeroe  Islands	Kazakhsatan	Yemen	Mali
Guatemala	Finland	Korea		Mauritius
Haiti	France	Laos		Moambique
Honduras	Georgia	Malaysia		Moldova
icaragua	Germany	Marutius		Morocco
Jamiaca	Gibraltar	Myanmar		Mutitania
Martinique	Greece	Nepal		Nigeria
Mexico	Iceland	New Zealand		S. Africa
Paraguay	Ireand	Pakistan		Senegal
Peru	Italy	Philippines		Sudan
Puerto Rico	Latvia	Singapore		Swaziland
St. Vincent	Lichtenstein	Taiwan		Tanzania
Trinidad	Lithuania	Tajikistan		Togo
Urguay	Luxemburg	Thailand		Tunisia
Venezuela	Macedonia	Uzbekistan		Uganda
	Mallorca	Vietnam		Zaire
	Malta
	Monaco
	Netherlands
	Norway
	Poland
	Portugal
	Romania
	Russia
	Serbia
	Spain
	Sweden
	Switzerland
	Turkey
	Ukraine

In mid June, two IPOs occurred on African stock exchanges for shares in major cellular/mobile network operators. Celtel Zambia offered 20% of its equity on the Lusaka Stock Exchange and Safaricom, partially owned by Vodafone Kenya, released 25% of its shares on the Nairobi Stock Exchange.

Zain Group, the prominent Middle Eastern operator's value stake in Celtel Zambia grew to 78.9% with Vodafone now owning 35% of Safaricom.

Both operators are major market leaders in their respective countries. In Q4 2007, Safaricom had 9.25 million subscribers, controlling 81% of the Kenyan market. Celtel Kenya had 2.1 million subscribers or 18% of market share in Kenya. Celtel that dominates Zambia with 1.97 million subscribers, commanding a 74% market share. Its nearest competitor is MTN Zambia with 262,000 subscribers for the same period, a weak 10% of the market.

Clearly, these market positions make both companies attractive propositions for IPO. With Kenya’s mobile penetration rate at just 30% of the population and Zambia’s at 22% there is still upside expansion opportunities. In Lusaka, Celtel is only the 19th company to be listed on its stock exchange, a further indication of the extent to which the wireless industry is a driving force in African economies.

Infonetics Research reports that worldwide service provider capex (capital expenditures) totaled $248.8 billion in 2007, a 7% increase from 2006. Infonetics' report projects a spike in worldwide carrier capex in 2008, followed by a plateau in 2010 and a decline in 2011, and emphasizes that the weak US dollar is inflating current growth rates in Brazil, Canada, China, Europe, India, and Japan.

Their analysis indicates that the mobile industry is in the fourth year of an investment phase, and we may be reaching the plateau this year in both North America and Europe, where large service providers' capital intensity (the ratio of capex to revenue) will likely be as low as 12%.

But the hyper growth economies of China and India will drive a significant jump in carrier capex in 2008 as a result of network construction projects combined with currency appreciation against the US dollar, meaning the Chinese RMB and Indian Rupee are buying much more these days. "Both countries are still posting double-digit revenue growth in their native currencies, which, converted in US dollars creates a big spike in worldwide carrier revenue as well," said Stéphane Téral, principal analyst at Infonetics Research.

Interesting Aspects of the report include:

Telecom service providers earned a combined $1.5 trillion in annual worldwide revenue in 2007, up 10% from 2006, with currency appreciation making up the bulk of the growth, while the rest came from wireless services.
Carriers are increasingly investing in application software (vs. hardware) for media rich applications such as content, storage, and security for broadband based wireline and wireless services
Current investment drivers for carrier spending: convergence between IT, media, Internet, and telecom, which is adding new competitive pressures to carriers, and the shift from legacy TDM to next generation IP networks
The world's 10 largest service providers (ranked by 2007 revenue) are AT&T, Verizon, NTT, Deutsche Telekom, France Télécom, Vodafone, Telefónica, China Mobile, BT, and Sprint.
The next largest service providers include Telecom Italia, Comcast, and KDDI, which, according to their most recent growth rates, are poised to join the top 10.

The Asia Pacific telecom industry is squeezed between 2 opposite market forces: a saturated market made of Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan characterized by flat to decreasing capex, and a fast growing market driven by China and India, characterized by double digit growth for both capex and revenue

Caribbean and Latin America (CALA) service provider revenue jumped 29% between 2006 and 2007
Mobile infrastructure makes up the bulk of total equipment capex in 2007, accounting for about 20%, followed by voice infrastructure, optical equipment, and broadband aggregation equipment

WiMAX equipment spending by service providers as a portion of total carrier capex has roughly doubled each year since 2004, and will continue to increase its share in the near term, driven by major WiMAX projects in the US, India, and Latin America.

Notwithstanding the constant barrage of negative coverage of the price of oil, rising inflation, and the bursting of the housing bubble in the US, UK, Spain and elsewhere, the mobile industry still reflects people's needs to communicate.

Loss of Matriarchs 

You may have noticed my postings have fallen off the last few months. Its been a difficult 90 days for me and my attention has been elsewhere than the machinations of the mobile industry.

In mid-April my mother, Pierette Bougnotteau Ruppert passed away at the full age of 86. She had lived in her native France for the last 33 years, and the last decade of her life was lost to Alzhiemers. Upon heraing the news, I quickly decamped to Paris, then Caen, where she spent the last years of her life. I brought my 12 year old son for his first visit to France, and dragged him to all the places in Paris where I spent so many summers as a child with my mother while she spent time at Elizabeth Arden. She was a cosmetics sales rep at a series of department stores in Cleveland, Ohio where I grew up, being in the workplace was more her liking than staying at home. April in Paris is rainy and grey, but we relived the times I spent in the Trulleries gardens sailing toy boats and visiting the Egyptian section of the Louvre--he seems to have inherited my interest in mummies, pharos and pyramids.

Then in mid June, my mother in law passed away suddenly as the result of a car accident injuries. She was quite close with my wife, the oldest of four daughters. I knew her for 34 years, I first met my wife when I was 16, and she was both a teacher and an entrepreneur. The sudden loss put much of "normal life" on hold as we decamped to Cleveland. She touched many--here's the obituary in the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

Working through the greif within the extended family as well as the adminstrative aspects of closing off two lives. Just starting to get back into my past rhythms and hope to be back at speed soon.

Paul

Back in November I read Pink's book and wrote a book review on Amazon that you can read here.      Quick Review: The future belongs to those who can craft symphonies from unrelated categories (as opposed to those who just analyze alone), who have narrative aptitude for story (instead of who just read power point slides), and who have empathy to solidify relationships (as opposed to transactional engagements)--they will be the masters of the this Conceptual Age.

Well worth the time, great afternoon read on the beach or in the hammock.

South Africa's MTN is now reporting that it has initiated talks with the #2 Indian mobile operator Reliance Communications (RLCM.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) that could create a $66 billion emerging markets telecoms group if the two companies merge.

A combination of MTN, valued at $38 billion at Friday's close, and Reliance, valued at $28 billion, would create a top ten global industry player to rival Japan's NTT DoCoMo in market value. In terms of subscribers, a merged group would fall just below Deutsche Telekom -- as the world's seventh largest mobile opertor conglomerate. Sources indicate that Reliance would put in play a different structure than the aforementioned Bharti deal. Finacial wags and analysts had speculated that Bharti was eyeing a 51 percent stake in MTN and Bharti said it had pulled out of talks after the South African firm suggested it become an MTN subsidiary, essentially the prey transforming the predator in this play.

Shares in Reliance immediately fell as the markets displayed worry over the costs of a deal while MTN stock fell 7.6%. It was expected that the Bharti deal drove  speculation over the potential premium from a Bharti buyout. MTN is seeking new markets outside Africa and the Middle East and will likely push to retain its brand and culture.

"Whatever the shape of the company moving forward, there is little doubt that the retention of the MTN brand and culture would be two of the most important aspects executive management and shareholders should ensure," Frost & Sullivan analyst Lindsey Mc Donald said.

Reliance Communications and MTN said earlier that the two groups had entered into exclusive talks about potentially combining their businesses. A 45-day exclusivity period will be in force, during which neither can talk to any other entity, so the speculation over Vodafone or China Mobile is now mute. Reliance Communications Chairman Anil Ambani, one of India's richest men, said a deal with MTN could "provide investors, customers and the people of both companies a global platform for exponential growth".

Cobra brings down the Rhino?

MTN had 68.2 million subscribers as of March, compared with Reliance Communications' 48 million. "Reliance Communications is smaller than MTN, and lacks the financial muscle for a takeover, but it is not going to want to be a subsidiary, either," said Ravi Dodhia, a telecoms analyst at KR Choksey Securities in the Reuters piece. Speculation centers on whether the two firms were likely to create a new company with MTN taking a 51 percent stake.

"If MTN is looking to remain listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and remain a South African company and be the aggressor in this deals, having this sort of exclusivity says to everyone else: 'You guys don't approach us, don't bother, we are not looking to be acquired'," Ambekar said. Harit Shah at India's Angel Broking, said Reliance and MTN might swap shares, as the foreign holding in Reliance Communications was considerably lower than in Bharti Airtel, a factor that was seen as a possible roadblock for Bharti's attempted deal.

Foreign ownership of Indian telecom firms is capped at 74 percent, and Bharti is 30.5 percent owned by Singapore Telecommunications.Shares in Reliance Communications, fell 5.7 percent to their lowest since May 12 while in Johannesburg, shares in MTN fell as 7.6 percent to 145.11 rand, their lowest since April 30.

Looks like the financial markets are disappointed that MTN has called off its talks with Bharti. Analysts had speculated that Bharti Airtel was engineering a merger that would value MTN at up to $50 billion.

Recall that last year, Bharti it lost the $11 billion race for majority control of India's third-largest mobile provider to Vodafone , but has made several smaller overseas acquisitions, including a UK-based WiMax operator of 4G services. India's wireless market grew 25-fold between 2002-07, ringing up record profits for telecom firms, but that growth is expected to slow as the percentage of the population with a mobile phone tops 40 percent by 2010 from 22 percent now.

In contrast, MTN is present in some of the world's most lucrative markets, such as Nigeria, Cameroon, Ghana, Zambia and Uganda, and has said it is keen to pursue more expansion opportunities in emerging markets.

Stay tuned.

After yesterday's Chinese quake-poem post I want to help guide informed readers to take action and help those in need in China.

With thanks to Ryan McLaughlin a friend who runs the extremely helpful "Lost Loawai" website covering China and Ex-pats plus the "Hao Hao Report" which compiles great web content on China, here's a more Asian centric group of relief organizations. Note you can text your contribution directly through China Mobile's Text contribution service. A great idea. 

Use the following information so that in your small way you can give and help. 

Red Cross Society of China

The Red Cross has set up a bank account for donations that will go directly to help the victims. Please use the following account information to give whatever amount you can to help. 

In China

RMB Account: 0200001009014413252
Address: The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Beijing Dongsinan Branch
Foreign Currency: 7112111482600000209
Address: CITIC Bank , Jiuxianqiao Branch

If Overseas:

If you are outside of China, but would still like to offer some support, you can deposit US dollars into the following account:

US Dollar Account: 7112111482600000209
China CITIC Bank Beijing, Jiuxianqiao Branch
C&W Tower. No.14,
Jiuxianqiao Street, Chaoyang District
Beijing, China
Zip Code: 100016
Swift Code：CIBKCNBJ100
TEL: 86-10-64319780

Heart to Heart

Heart to Heart International is a global humanitarian organization that inspires, empowers and mobilizes individuals to serve the needs of the poor in their communities and around the world. They accomplish this mission through partnerships that promote health; deliver resources, education and hope; and provide opportunities for meaningful service.

The Heart to Heart team in China mobilized for action shortly after the magnitude-7.8 earthquake struck northwest of Chengdu, where their office and clinic are located. Their medical director and staff were onsite providing medical and direct patient care in support of local relief efforts.

The organization has a number of ways you can donate - either through bank deposit, or directly online. Please see their donation page for details. The Web site also includes an excellent donor guide to appropriate disaster giving, and information on assembling care kits. 

Jet Li's One Foundation

Another way to donate is through Kung Fu master actor, Jet Li's One Foundation. The site has options to pay by various online methods (including PayPal) with all proceeds going to the Red Cross Society of China.

China Mobile - donate through SMS

China Mobile has set up an earthquake relief fund. To donate via your mobile phone, simply send a text message to the telephone number ‘10699988’, writing the number amount you would like to donate (from 1RMB to 30RMB) in the body of the text. The money will be deducted from your phone bill or prepaid card.

Other Means for different Means

If none of these donation methods suit your particular situation, definitely check out CNReviews' China Earthquake Donation guide. The blog master Elliot Ng is continually seeking additional ways you can donate. Check it out.

Add a badge to your blog/site  [Look Up and to the Right]

     THE CODE:       href="http://www.lostlaowai.com/china-earthquake-how-you-can-help" title="China Quake Relief"><img src="http://www.lostlaowai.com/images/china-quake-donate.png" alt="China Quake Donation" width="200px" height="100px" border="0" /></a>

If you know of any additional ways in which help can be offered to the people of Sichuan,  China please please send me a note and I'll include it here.

In reading my overnight China traffic, I came across this touching poem of a mother and child's final journey. Sorrow. Grief. Joy and memory all bundled together. As a parent it gives pause as to how wrenching such loss is for the many Chinese mothers and fathers who have lost their "little princes and princesses." Bitter sweet, drink it in and savor it.

It may be trite but such scale tragedy places perspective on that which matters most through this tenuous earthly journey: family, friends, heart and love. If you are action oriented, Click >here< for a list of relief organizations that are providing on the ground assistance to the Chinese rescue, recovery, relief and rebuilding efforts.

孩子     Child

快        Hurry up
抓紧妈妈的手           Tightly hold your Mom’s hand
去天堂的路        The road to heaven

太黑了                is too dark

妈妈怕你            Mom is afraid that

碰了头               you hit your head
快                     Hurry up
抓紧妈妈的手               Tightly hold your Mom’s hand
让妈妈陪你走      Let Mom keep you company
妈妈               Mom

怕           I am afraid
天堂的路             The road to heaven

太黑        is too dark
我看不见你的手        I cannot see your hand

自从        since

倒塌的墙         the wall collapsed
把阳光夺走     it took the sun light away
我再也看不见      I cannot see

你柔情的眸          your lovely eyes again
孩子            Child

你走吧        You can go
前面的路    the road in front of you

再也没有忧愁        has no sorrow any more
没有读不完的课本             there are no books that you cannot finish reading
和爸爸的拳头         and your father’s touch of his hand 

你要记住         you have to remember

我和爸爸的摸样         my face and your father’s face
来生还要一起走     let’s finish walking this road together in our next life
妈妈                 Mom

别担忧           do not worry
天堂的路有些挤             the road to heaven is a bit crowded
有很多同学朋友          I have a lot classmates and friends here 

我们说            we all say
不哭                                         don’t cry
哪一个人的妈妈都是我们的妈妈       anyone’s Mom is our Mom
哪一个孩子都是妈妈的孩子          any child is Mom’s child
没有我的日子                         the days without me
你把爱给活的孩子吧         give your love to the children alive
妈妈                        Mom
你别哭               don’t cry

泪光照亮不了     tears cannot light up the road

我们的路            our road
让我们自己         let us

慢慢的走             walk slowly
妈妈                  Mom
我会记住你和爸爸的模样      I will remember your face and father’s face

记住我们的约定          remember our appointment

来生一起走                 of walking together in our next life

10 Ways the Chinese Internet is Different

In the course of searching for interesting & different content for Mobile Point View I sometimes find a jewel amongst the rocks. Such is the case with Mobiz (strapline: Trends and Opportunities in Mobile and Internet Space in China and Rest of the World), a blog written by Nokia Executive and wireless veteran Alvin Foo. Based in China, he has a nice balance of personal stories mixed in with solid analysis of mobile trends and technology initiatives in China. He's a pathfinder having blogged since 2004. I wanted to share Alvin's newest post "10 Ways the Chinese Internet is Different" for my global readers, as well as my own comments on each. Drop by Alvin's Mobiz & edify on the ways of China.

1. Its slower
Thanks to the Great Firewall, accessing the internet especially websites residing outside China can be a real pain.   Tell me about it. My friends in China keep advising me that MobilePointView sometimes is accessible and sometimes not. Notwithstanding the fact that I've never written a cross word about China!! There are many times I'd rather be there with 10% economic growth rate than here in the US where mobile is hardly cutting edge!  But what about Mobile access to the web, how's that compared to the west--same same. With most Chinese now accessing the web via mobile, does it really matter how fast a tethered connection is?

2. Its monitored. The Chinese authorities monitor all traffic going in and out of China.
Well, so it seems is the Australian web soon. Monitoring may not be all that bad given below. Yet again, read above and it makes you take pause. Readers, what's your view ?

3. Access to foreign Web sites is limited: The Chinese government uses four mechanisms -- DNS blocking, reset commands, URL keyword blocking and content scanning to prevent Internet users in the country from reaching blacklisted Web sites or content.  I've heard there are also readers pouring over the internet, much like massive public works projects used to be built by hand and hordes of workers. Any truth to that, or is it "geopolitical myth making?"

4. Blackouts are common
If the Chinese government finds that a user has downloaded forbidden content, it breaks the connection and prohibits the user from establishing communications with the site. These blackouts can last anywhere from two minutes to an hour. Umm, I'm also advised by a student who used to work for me that her dorm electricity is turned off at 11:00 pm every night. When do you get to study then?

5. Its censored.The authority employs thousand of people to go through content and censor whatever they find sensitive. Ah, see item 2 question.

6. There's less porn: The Chinese government justifies its Internet monitoring efforts by telling the public that it is keeping online information "wholesome" and free of threats such as sexual predators. Online pornography is not as pervasive in China, and users are less likely to stumble upon it. Good.

7. It's safer. Malicious activity including phishing scams, bots and zombies is less common in China than in the United States. China represented 7% of the Internet's malicious activity, while the United States represented 31% during the second half of 2007. One rationale for the Chinese Internet monitoring system is to keep hackers at bay. Seems sensible.

8. There's less spam. China produces 4% of the world's spam, while the United States is the origin for 42% of all unsolicited e-mail. China decreased its spam volume by 131% in the second half of 2007, largely by reducing the number of bot-infested computers. Here, too. Seems sensible.

9. It's based on IPv6. The China Next Generation Internet is an IPv6 backbone that the Chinese government is using as a testbed to develop IPv6 services, including distance learning and telemedicine. IPv6 is an upgrade to the Internet's main communications protocol that features enough IP addresses for the Chinese population. I'm curious whether IPv6 is a Chinese initiated technical upgrade. Might be reflective of industrial policy and strategy. If China adopts a standard, it is now at the point of rightfully effecting global standards to adhere. Nothing new here, others have tried it, e.g., PHS out of Japan, CDMA out of the US, etc.

10. Its growing faster. The Chinese domain .cn are growing much faster than any domain in the world. Dot cn grew by 399% than the 24% year on year for .com and .net. WOW!  Two words: Head East.

Thanks for the informative post Alvin.

Velti Maneuvers into China's Mobile Marketing

Chinese mobile advertising startup CASEE has closed an investment from London-based mobile marketing company Velti plc. The investment was worth up to $6 million, according to the announcement from Velti. CASEE operates an on line mobile advertising marketplace at CASEE.cn  Riding on the success of AdMob neutral off-deck posture, some have characterized CASEE as the AdMob of China. Here's the value proposition: Wireless application protocol (WAP) site operators go to CASEE and sign up to run ads on their sites, while advertisers can bid for ad space through CASEE. So within the vernacular they provide inventory to those interested in mobile marketing campaigns.

This caught my interest for all the obvious reasons--a Chinese company again leading a mobile initiative and gaining western attention, a mobile marketing play, international M&A--but mostly since I know Velti, the company which invested in CASEE.

Velti is run by CEO Alex Moukas who I had the chance to interview at CTIA in April. Velti is the leading mobile marketing company with over US$60 million in revenues--not the start up AdMob; a listing on the London AIM exchange makes it a far more robust public company. How many other mobile marketing companies are public?  None other that I know of. The company's been around for 8 years, starting out in the mobile messaging space and migrated up as the market has evolved. Mobile advertising is one of the most effective ways of driving fuller branding efforts especially within emerging markets such as China, where most access the Internet via a mobile WAP page. Good play for Velti.

Listen to my interview here with Velti CEO Alex Moukas: (x1, 10:30)

Mutual Utility
Velti's investment is a good play for them to enter into the fastest growing Chinese mobile market. CASEE is serving over 500 million ads a month on over 3,000 WAP sites in China. The company currently has 25 employees, but expects to reach 45 by the end of 2008. The company's publishing partners include Sina, Sohu and QQ.  The announcement said that Velti will be able to extend CASEE's mobile advertising technology outside of China and that the two companies will cooperate on product offerings and development. CASEE's founder and CEO is Xin Ye, former CTO of Linktone (NASDAQ: LTON).

GOOD BONES  & SMEs

CASEE was founded in 2006 by a local Chinese team headquartered in Beijing. Advertising clients span MNCs such as Kodak and General Motors to local, small and medium-sized enterprises. These Chinese SMEs are the real value here since that will be the primary source of advertising growth via the mobile channel in China for the future. Using their special sauce, it matches bids for advertising space against inventory offerings through targeting to maximise the price received by over 2000 content publishers from their WAP sites from advertisers. In short, the basic mobile marketing advertising model currently employed across the globe.  The real value here is the access the CASEE founders have in the Chinese market, including it's CEO, Xin Ye, who was the CTO of  Sohu. The founders and board have extensive experience in the local market, having held senior executive positions at US-listed Chinese companies like Sohu, Baidu and Linktone. CASEE serves more than 500 million ads every month to mobile phones in China and receives its revenues from advertisers.

I think both companies will fare well from the linking investment. Clearly it provides both a complimentary and substantial leg up, into mutually interested markets: one to go outside of China, the other the chance to get into China. Looks like a: win-win. Watch both.

Bharti and MTN are closing their deal according to Friday reports, with financial terms coming soon according to global press speculation. The acquisition deal may be a two part play comprised of a n a 50:50 cash/shares agreement, creating a fully-merged company. Dow Jones, quoting sources close to the situation, relays that Bharti has set a maximum transaction value of US$45 billion, while MTN is seeking US$50 billion for the full show. Both valuations represent a significant premium on MTN's current market cap of US$38 billion. Bharti originally posited a partial takeover, offering US$19 billion for a 51 percent controlling stake in the South African-based operator. Now they want full control.

Office Curtains & Iranian Loopholes

To reflect the depth and stage of this engagement, discussions have begun regarding who will sit on the NewCo's board. Akin to discussing the curtains in a the new office, I would say this deal is done. India's Business Standard reports that Bharti's Sunil Mittal would be deputy chairman and CEO of the NewCo (new company) while MTN chairman MC Ramaphosa could become new group chairman. The report also notes a number of other hurdles that the companies must overcome to make a deal, including the Indian government's 74 percent cap on foreign ownership and the sanctions in some countries where MTN operates (such as Iran, Liberia and Syria), which could make it difficult for US-based investment banks to fund the deal.

BTW, there are loopholes regarding trade with Iran and the restrictions on companies operating in Iran--I know because I've successfully sold into Iran for a US company. It isn't a complete embargo as is Cuba. There are ways....

Looks like this deal is Done!

Etisalat eying South Africa's MTN

The saga surrounding the MTN acquisition continues with today's report that the UAE's Emirates Telecommunications (Etisalat) is the latest operator to be linked to activity surrounding the future of South Africa's MTN.

3 Suitors within a Week

"We are always looking for expansion in Africa," Reuters reports Etisalat chairman Mohammed Omran as telling reporters at the ITU Africa 2008 event in Cairo today. "We are evaluating MTN, among other companies." As we've been following this effort over the last two weeks with "Now the Dragon eyes the Lion" and "Poaching in Africa: Bharti's Hunting MTN"  and the kick off "India Eyes Africa: Bharti target's MTN" there are now 3 potential suitors, Bharti, China Mobile and Etisalat.

Government-owned Etisalat, which operates in 16 countries and has 51 million customers, has been on a four-year, US$5 billion spending spree, setting up mobile operations in Egypt and Saudi Arabia as well as buying a stake in a Pakistani unit. In December last year it said it would buy 16 percent of PT Excelcomindo Pratama Tbk to enter Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous country. It is also started an operator in Nigeria. Clearly this gulf based operation is leveraging it's wealth accrued during this oil and mobile-coms boom.

Meanwhile, Vodafone remains on the side lines and emphasizes it has no plans to make a bid for MTN, despite reports in the UK press over weekend to the contrary.

Arab & State Owned likely in South Africa?

Given the clear state ownership of Etisilat, I'm not sure that one of South Africa's crown economic jewels would be likely to fall into foreign state owned hands. After all MTN happens to be one of the six largest advertising spends in S. Africa, with estimates putting their branding efforts as close to $600 million. It's one thing to have a non-controlling interest, it is another to have outright ownership by a foreign state. Stay tuned. It continues to be interesting.

$17 billion off shore gets no respect in the US

Of course, I haven't seen a peep in any US media outlets mentioning a $17 billion acquisition in the mobile telecommunications space is about to come down. The closest I've seen is "Calling Across the Indian Ocean" a piece in this week's Economist, a British publication.