Monday Morning Owner

What is a bust? RB's

2016-07-12T17:06:00.001-04:00

What is a bust? One definition from the dictionary is that a bust is “to ruin financially”. The first two rounds of a fantasy football draft can either make or break your season. These rounds are where you must pick players who are projected to have great seasons. Last year saw a crazy amount of busts at the running back position.

My definition of a bust may differ from others. I view the Top 12 RB’s picked from last year’s season and see which of these running backs finished in the Top 12 for points. It can be argued that a RB picked with the first five picks of the draft should have higher expectations but for my purposes I’m examining how many within the Top 12 for ADP finish in the Top 12 for Fantasy Points.

Name	Pick	Final Rank	Points	Difference	Result
Adrian Peterson	1.02	2	230.7	71.3	+
LeVeon Bell	1.03	47	87.2	-72.2	-
Eddie Lacy	1.03	25	120.6	-38.8	-
Jamaal Charles	1.04	49	84.1	-75.3	-
Marshawn Lynch	1.05	56	67.7	-91.7	-
CJ Anderson	1.08	30	116.3	-43.1	-
Jeremy Hill	1.09	14	153.3	-6.1	-
DeMarco Murray	2.01	18	140.1	-19.3	-
Matt Forte	2.03	9	170.7	11.3	+
LeSean McCoy	2.07	17	144.7	-14.7	-
Justin Forsett	2.09	43	91.4	-68	-
Lamar Miller	2.09	6	184.9	25.5	+

The benchmark for my study was 159.4 fantasy points, the points for the 12^th RB at the end of the year. Last year was a very bad year for running backs. Adrian Peterson was the only RB drafted in the first round who truly delivered. Matt Forte and Lamar Miler were backs drafted in the second round who delivered solid fantasy points.

The elite running backs from the 2015 season could not get healthy and thrive. LeVeon Bell and Jamaal Charles tore their ACL’s. Eddie Lacy had an ankle injury and could never really seem to get things going. Marshawn Lynch was injured and limited before retiring at the end of the season. Demarco Murray suffered from... well from playing for Chip Kelly’s Eagles. Various factors held back running backs in 2015.

This has lead many fantasy owners I have spoken with to have a new WR heavy approach to drafting. I wanted to figure out if last year was an anomaly or if RB’s bust that hard every year.

Year

Success

Bust

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

By my measurements last year was an exceptionally bad year for RB’s. I believe this year will be more predictable than last year. I plan to measure the other positions used in fantasy football and publish my findings as soon as possible.

Offseason

2015-03-22T14:43:00.000-04:00

Every fantasy football off season I say the same same thing; that the upcoming season is going to be vastly different than the last. I feel this is especially true this year. LeSean McCoy has went to the Bills, Nick Foles has went to the Rams, Julius Thomas went to Oakland, Torrey Smith to San Francisco, Shane Vereen to the Giants, Jimmy Graham to Seattle and Demarco Murray to Philadelphia.

The best fantasy running back of 2014 has left the Cowboys to go to divisional rival Philadelphia. If Demarco Murray moving to the Eagles doesn't show you there was plenty of change this off season I don't know what will. Many first, second, and third round fantasy players have changed teams. How will these players number be effected? That is a question I will seek to solve closer to fantasy season.

The snow is melting where I live, the NFL draft is almost upon us, my friends are arguing about last years fantasy season, fantasy football will be upon us in less than six months. I forgot to mention the defensive players who have suddenly retired. Poor 49ers fans. The retirement of Patrick Willis and Chris Borland will no doubt impact IDP leagues. It will be interesting to see how everything pans out. I will be conducting tons of research this off season. I will be posting a draft guide and draft strategies as I have the last few seasons. I hope everyone has been enjoying the fantasy football off season.

2014 Fantasy Season Review

2015-01-18T17:42:00.002-05:00

This fantasy football season was full of ups and downs. I accomplished something that few people have done in competitive fantasy leagues; I won my third Playoff Championship in a row. I did not have remarkable success in all of my leagues. Both leagues where I possessed the first overall pick saw me not making the playoffs. I learned many important lessons this fantasy football season. Here is a quick recap of how I performed in each league.

12 Team IDP League

10-3 Regular Season (13-3 including playoffs)

I finished second in the regular season and won my third playoff championship in a row. I draft incredibly well in this league. The draft is conducted in person. I picked twelfth in the draft. I come to every draft prepared. I create an Excel Spreadsheet, study scoring systems, then make my picks based off Value Based Drafting principles. I also benefit from understanding how and when to draft defensive players. The way in which I draft defensive players is one of the factors that allows me to be so successful. I understand the scoring system in the league. 5 IDP players are required each week. 3 of any defensive position you want, with 2 players having to be Defensive Back’s. JJ Watt had 239.96, 1^st among defensive players and 68 points ahead of the 2^nd ranked player. I drafted JJ in the fifth round. Harrison Smith was the best defensive back in terms of fantasy points with 142.50, I took him in the eighth round.

The most important time of the fantasy football season is the draft. If you are in a fantasy league with IDP you need to figure out the leagues scoring system and figure out where to draft defensive players. Plenty of player don’t understand where to draft IDP’s. Only my two quarterbacks, Le'Veon Bell , and Demaryius Thomas scored more points than JJ Watt. That example should show you the importance of IDP’s. My all time record in this league is 31-8, 40-8 if you include the playoffs. I will admit that other factors played into my success this year. I traded Ahmad Bradshaw for Kelvin Benjamin to shore up my receiving corps while Megatron was hurt, I also chose to abandon Colin Kapernick and picked up Ryan Tannehill off waivers late in the season. My back to back picks of Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas were also extremely important. I’m hoping to make it four championships in a row next year!

12 Team Flex

5-9 No Playoffs

I had the first pick of the draft and selected LeSean McCoy. His slow start to the season lost me many games. I had an excellent pick in Le’Veon Bell, he was the second best running back in terms of fantasy points. Multiple things hurt me in this league. My third round pick was Drew Brees who only ended up as the sixth best quarterback. I had hoped for more from Brees. McCoy had an abysmal start to the season. I had a horrible receiving corps. Larry Fitzgerald and Cordarelle Patterson were my starters on opening day… I did not have good performances from my receivers this year. It was not my year in this league. If you pick first in the draft and your first pick of the draft does not perform well you are doomed. After picking McCoy I had to wait 23 picks to pick again. Those 23 picks are why I would rather have a later pick. You can get guys who slide in draft position late in the first round.

12 Team Standard

3-10 No Playoffs

I picked first in the draft for the 12 team Standard league. I once again selected LeSean McCoy. My other running back was Giovanni Bernard, who I handcuffed by selecting Jeremy Hill. My biggest mistake was selecting Matthew Stafford in the 5^th round. Stafford ranked as the 15^th best quarterback and was a horrible pick. Selecting Stafford in the 5^th also hindered my receiving corps. My draft day receiving corps was made up of Michael Crabtree, Terrance Williams, and Marques Colston. I lost some close games early in the year. I could have had a few more wins with some luck, but in the end I just did not have a very good team. I told myself never to over draft a marginal fantasy quarterback then I did. This leagues draft was my final draft of the year. I feel as if I made some of my picks in this league based off picks I made in my other leagues. I felt like I wanted a different team than I had in my other leagues. I had the chance to draft Le'Veon Bell but picked Bernard so I would have variety and not have the same back in three leagues. I will not make a mistake like that ever again. You should never have your team in another league influence your decision for a team in a separate league.

I hope everyone enjoyed their respective fantasy football seasons. I will once again be doing a draft guide and posting my draft spreadsheets. I plan to do a ton of research this off season and am hoping to have my best fantasy football year yet. I plan to have a ton of important and useful information on this site to help with next seasons draft. Enjoy the off season everyone! Come here when you start prepping for next seasons draft!

Update

2014-10-19T18:13:00.000-04:00

The season has not been very kind to me. My records are as follows:
12 Man IDP Standard- 4-2
12 Man Flex- 3-3
12 Man Standard 1-5

I have not been posting much as I am adjusting to now being a contributing writer for http://www.senshot.com It was an opportunity to write for the Fansided network which has been a blast thus far.

I can not seem to catch a break this year. LeSean McCoy underperformed during some of the early weeks. Matt Stafford has been extremely inconsistent. Many weeks have just simply seen two or more key players fail at the same time. I will not go on to break down my bad luck by displaying my weekly results, scores etc; All I can say is that it has been hard to catch a break in my 12 Man Flex/12 Man Standard league. Hopefully I can sneak into the playoffs in the flex league.

My 12 Man IDP team has seen success. My all time record in this league is actually ridiculous. Including playoffs I am 31-7 all time as of week six of this season. I have a very good roster. I have a plethora of running backs. I have LeVeon Bell, Chris Ivory, Fred Jackson, Trent Richardson, Andre Williams. I had Ahmad Bradshaw but made a trade that greatly benefits my team. I moved Ahmad Bradshaw to acquire Kelvin Benjamin. My receivers are Kelvin Benjamin, Demaryius Thomas, Calvin Johnson, and Terrance Williams. Benjamin has allowed me to remain strong even after Johnson's injury. I hope to win my third regular season and playoff championship in this league.

I have learned many things throughout this fantasy season. I will use the information I have learned to prepare for next year. Every fantasy season offers new information, new challenges, new trends, new stars. I am going to keep periodically posting on this blog. The information I have learned this year is going to allow me to formulate an excellent draft strategy for next year.

Week 1 Results and Misc Thoughts

2014-09-14T14:04:00.002-04:00

I went 3-0 in my leagues Week 1. I am looking to continue rolling Week 2. I will need strong play from my quarterbacks. In my IDP league my defensive players were spectacular.

2014 Fantasy Football Cheatsheet 12 Team Draft Flex

2014-08-31T03:38:00.003-04:00

Do you want to win your fantasy football league? Obviously. If you are reading this right now your leagues draft is very close to the beginning of the NFL season. This article will give you the logic behind my cheat sheet, and the actual cheat sheet format I used during my last draft, and plan to use for my next two. My upcoming draft is in a 12 man league which features a flex. The positional requirements are as follows:

1 QB
2 RB
2 WR
1 WR/RB Flex
1 TE
1 K
1 DEF
5 Bench

Some features of the leagues scoring system and positional options are:

Quarterback passing touchdowns are only worth four points instead of six.

You can play either an RB or WR in the flex spot.

I have assembled a cheat sheet that you can use for 12 team drafts featuring a flex. The quarterback scoring on this cheat sheet is based on passing touchdowns being worth four points. I have already drafted in my league which does not have a flex and features IDP for defense. My strategy in non IDP drafts is fairly similar. The only downside for me is that in non IDP drafts less opportunities exist to draft players at ridiculous value. People do not understand IDP as well as team defense, which allows for some ridiculously high value picks. I am a huge believer in value based drafting (VBD). I am not sure where I am drafting in this league. Two of my leagues give draft position away before the draft, this one does not. Regardless of my draft spot, I will always attempt to draft players who exceed their peers by the largest margin.

I believe it is ideal to target the best players available. You will most likely see some wild picks in your draft. Capitalize on these mistakes by other managers. Be flexible during your draft, play what the board gives you. Drafting with rigid rules may prevent you from getting players who have high value. Take the players who slide to you in the draft. My top twelve in terms of player value is as follows:

Name	Team	Position	FPP/Week	FPP	Value
Jamaal Charles	KC	RB	16.2375	259.8	138.60
LeSean McCoy	PHI	RB	15.9	254.4	133.20
Matt Forte	CHI	RB	15.10625	241.7	120.50
Adrian Peterson	MIN	RB	14.81875	237.1	115.90
Calvin Johnson	DET	WR	14.35625	229.7	109.00
Demaryius Thomas	DEN	WR	13.7125	219.4	98.70
Eddie Lacy	GB	RB	13.63125	218.1	96.90
Jimmy Graham	NO	TE	12.2125	195.4	94.10
Montee Ball	DEN	RB	12.98125	207.7	86.50
DeMarco Murray	DAL	RB	12.9125	206.6	85.40
Peyton Manning	DEN	QB	22.7125	363.4	82.60
Marshawn Lynch	SEA	RB	12.6625	202.6	81.40

The first twelve picks in my last draft went as follows:

LeSean McCoy
Adrian Peterson
Jamaal Charles
Matt Forte
Eddie Lacy
Marshawn Lynch
Peyton Manning
Drew Brees
Montee Ball
Aaron Rodgers
Jimmy Graham
Calvin Johnson

Did I want to establish a strong running back for my team? Yes. Every fantasy owner does. With the twelfth pick I drafted Calvin Johnson. I sat hoping he would slide to me. Is he a wide receiver? Yes. Is he the 5th best player based off value? Yes. I drafted a wide receiver in the first round, Megatron was a steal. I picked immediately after and I picked another wide receiver. Demaryius Thomas. The sixth best player based off value. After those back to back picks I had to wait a long time to draft again. With my next set of picks (36 and 37) I took Le'Veon Bell and Rob Gronkowski. Le'Veon Bell was my 18th ranked player based on value, Gronk my 33rd. I fleshed out my running game later in the draft. Was I concerned about my running game throughout the draft? Yes. I addressed that need by drafting plenty of running backs: Le'Veon Bell, Bishop Sankey, Trent Richardson, Fred Jackson, and long shot Khiry Robinson. I will play the waiver wire throughout they year to find a diamond in the rough. Not taking a RB in the first allowed me to draft the two best WR's in the draft. I didn't anticipate Calvin Johnson to fall to twelfth, and I certainly did not expect Thomas to fall as well. Playing the board payed off. I was flexible and went with what the board gave me.

My cheat sheet is posted below, and I have also provided a download link. The sheet only includes 112 players. Examine projections, get a list of sleepers, do some additional research. The sheet should give you a a fairly thorough list in which you can base your draft off. You obviously need to draft to fill your positional requirements, but don't feel obligated to fill a position if better players exist elsewhere. Just because one manager takes a mid round tight end does not mean you have to. Take the best player available and get a Tight End later in the draft. Always take the best player available. Good luck!

Name	Team	Position	FPP/Week	FPP	Value
Jamaal Charles	KC	RB	16.2375	259.8	138.60
LeSean McCoy	PHI	RB	15.9	254.4	133.20
Matt Forte	CHI	RB	15.10625	241.7	120.50
Adrian Peterson	MIN	RB	14.81875	237.1	115.90
Calvin Johnson	DET	WR	14.35625	229.7	109.00
Demaryius Thomas	DEN	WR	13.7125	219.4	98.70
Eddie Lacy	GB	RB	13.63125	218.1	96.90
Jimmy Graham	NO	TE	12.2125	195.4	94.10
Montee Ball	DEN	RB	12.98125	207.7	86.50
DeMarco Murray	DAL	RB	12.9125	206.6	85.40
Peyton Manning	DEN	QB	22.7125	363.4	82.60
Marshawn Lynch	SEA	RB	12.6625	202.6	81.40
Julio Jones	ATL	WR	12.55625	200.9	80.20
Dez Bryant	DAL	WR	12.55625	200.9	80.20
Doug Martin	TB	RB	12.4875	199.8	78.60
Giovani Bernard	CIN	RB	12.475	199.6	78.40
A.J. Green	CIN	WR	12.15625	194.5	73.80
Le'Veon Bell	PIT	RB	12.0875	193.4	72.20
Zac Stacy	STL	RB	11.9625	191.4	70.20
Brandon Marshall	CHI	WR	11.85625	189.7	69.00
Alfred Morris	WAS	RB	11.80625	188.9	67.70
Arian Foster	HOU	RB	11.75625	188.1	66.90
Jordy Nelson	GB	WR	11.64375	186.3	65.60
Aaron Rodgers	GB	QB	21.6	345.6	64.80
Alshon Jeffery	CHI	WR	11.55	184.8	64.10
Antonio Brown	PIT	WR	11.54375	184.7	64.00
Andre Ellington	ARI	RB	11.29375	180.7	59.50
Toby Gerhart	JAC	RB	11.20625	179.3	58.10
Julius Thomas	DEN	TE	9.8875	158.2	56.90
Seattle		DEF	10.905	174.48	55.50
Drew Brees	NO	QB	21	336	55.20
Randall Cobb	GB	WR	10.8375	173.4	52.70
Rob Gronkowski	NE	TE	9.43125	150.9	49.60
Ryan Mathews	SD	RB	10.55	168.8	47.60
Reggie Bush	DET	RB	10.4625	167.4	46.20
Carolina		DEF	10.315	165.04	46.06
Vincent Jackson	TB	WR	10.40625	166.5	45.80
Joique Bell	DET	RB	10.4	166.4	45.20
Frank Gore	SF	RB	10.325	165.2	44.00
Andre Johnson	HOU	WR	10.15	162.4	41.70
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	WR	10.14375	162.3	41.60
Ray Rice	BAL	RB	10.1375	162.2	41.00
Rashad Jennings	NYG	RB	10.08125	161.3	40.10
Shane Vereen	NE	RB	10.05625	160.9	39.70
C.J. Spiller	BUF	RB	10.025	160.4	39.20
Michael Crabtree	SF	WR	9.99375	159.9	39.20
Chris Johnson	NYJ	RB	9.925	158.8	37.60
Keenan Allen	SD	WR	9.71875	155.5	34.80
Ben Tate	CLE	RB	9.71875	155.5	34.30
Cordarrelle Patterson	MIN	WR	9.54375	152.7	32.00
Bishop Sankey	TEN	RB	9.56875	153.1	31.90
Roddy White	ATL	WR	9.50625	152.1	31.40
Michael Floyd	ARI	WR	9.44375	151.1	30.40
Trent Richardson	IND	RB	9.46875	151.5	30.30
Victor Cruz	NYG	WR	9.4375	151	30.30
Vernon Davis	SF	TE	8.20625	131.3	30.00
Pierre Garcon	WAS	WR	9.35625	149.7	29.00
Stevan Ridley	NE	RB	9.29375	148.7	27.50
St.Louis		DEF	9.1525	146.44	27.46
Emmanuel Sanders	DEN	WR	9.1625	146.6	25.90
KC		DEF	9.05	144.8	25.82
Matthew Stafford	DET	QB	19.1125	305.8	25.00
Percy Harvin	SEA	WR	8.98125	143.7	23.00
Torrey Smith	BAL	WR	8.98125	143.7	23.00
Jason Witten	DAL	TE	7.75625	124.1	22.80
Cincinnatti		DEF	8.83	141.28	22.30
Jordan Cameron	CLE	TE	7.6875	123	21.70
Andrew Luck	IND	QB	18.9	302.4	21.60
DeSean Jackson	WAS	WR	8.8125	141	20.30
Dennis Pitta	BAL	TE	7.5875	121.4	20.10
Nick Foles	PHI	QB	18.65	298.4	17.60
Marques Colston	NO	WR	8.61875	137.9	17.20
Julian Edelman	NE	WR	8.49375	135.9	15.20
Ty Hilton	IND	WR	8.4625	135.4	14.70
Maurice Jones-Drew	OAK	RB	8.4875	135.8	14.60
Golden Tate	DET	WR	8.45	135.2	14.50
Jordan Reed	WAS	TE	7.20625	115.3	14.00
Mike Wallace	MIA	WR	8.40625	134.5	13.80
Arizona		DEF	8.248125	131.97	12.99
Jeremy Maclin	PHI	WR	8.31875	133.1	12.40
Fred Jackson	BUF	RB	8.34375	133.5	12.30
Colin Kaepernick	SF	QB	18.3125	293	12.20
Kendall Wright	TEN	WR	8.2875	132.6	11.90
Greg Olsen	CAR	TE	7.05	112.8	11.50
Kyle Rudolph	MIN	TE	7.00625	112.1	10.80
New England		DEF	8.108125	129.73	10.75
TB		DEF	8.06125	128.98	10.00
Pierre Thomas	NO	RB	8.175	130.8	9.60
Steven Jackson	ATL	RB	8.14375	130.3	9.10
Terrance Williams	DAL	WR	8.1125	129.8	9.10
Matt Ryan	ATL	QB	18.11875	289.9	9.10
Cleveland		DEF	7.886875	126.19	7.21
Knowshon Moreno	MIA	RB	7.975	127.6	6.40
Eric Decker	NYJ	WR	7.86875	125.9	5.20
Tom Brady	NE	QB	17.8625	285.8	5.00
Zach Ertz	PHI	TE	6.60625	105.7	4.40
Denver		DEF	7.64625	122.34	3.36
Reggie Wayne	IND	WR	7.75	124	3.30
Chicago		DEF	7.528125	120.45	1.47
Danny Woodhead	SD	RB	7.64375	122.3	1.10
Sammy Watkins	BUF	WR	7.59375	121.5	0.80
Robert Griffin III	WAS	QB	17.59375	281.5	0.70
Tony Romo	DAL	QB	17.575	281.2	0.40
GB		DEF	7.43625	118.98	0.00
Cam Newton	CAR	QB	17.55	280.8	0.00
DeAngelo Williams	CAR	RB	7.575	121.2	0.00
Martellus Bennett	CHI	TE	6.33125	101.3	0.00
Terrance West	CLE	RB	7.51875	120.3	-0.90
Wes Welker	DEN	WR	7.35	117.6	-1.38
Kelvin Benjamin	CAR	WR	7.4	118.4	-2.30
Russell Wilson	SEA	QB	17.39375	278.3	-2.50
Jay Cutler	CHI	QB	17.025	272.4	-8.40

EXCEL DOWNLOAD

IDP (Individual Defensive Players) 2014 Draft Guide

2014-08-26T23:04:00.001-04:00

IDP is an interesting feature in fantasy football. Instead of using team defenses for defensive scoring you actually pick individual defensive players. I have repeated as season and playoff champion in the league I play in which uses the IDP format. Although my IDP league has brought me much success, I still still prefer not playing with IDP. IDP can be confusing for the more casual of fantasy football players. Having IDP in a league can give an advantage to those players who actually understand elements of football defense, and a disadvantage to those who do not.It really helps me since I love football, but I feel it hinders others.

Most fantasy football owners prepare for the draft by examining projections. Projections for IDP are not as prevalent as they are for offensive players. Although projections are more sparse, you can still prepare for a draft with the ones available. For new players, difficulty with IDP drafts hinges on one important question/problem: when to draft defensive players? This question can be answered byexamining player value for both offensive and defensive players.

Player value stats and value based drafting are ways to see how players rank next to their peers. An example of player value would be to compare Colin Kaepernick and Matthew Stafford. Based on the projections from Fantasy Pros, and average draft position data from Fantasy Football Calculator, Matthew Stafford is overvalued, while Kaepernick is under valued. Kaepernick is projected to get 307.7 points and is going in the eight round, while Stafford is projected to get 304.2 points and is going in the fourth round. Projections may just be that, a projection or guess of how the player will do. Matt Stafford is only worth taking in the fourth round if you believe he will exceed 304.2 fantasy points. Why draft him in the fourth round when quarterbacks who can provide you with similiar numbers exist later in the draft? Seven quarterbacks are projected to obtain very similar fantasy points. Running backs and wide receivers would make a better target then Matt Stafford in the fourth round (unless you believe he will have a remarkable year). For more on value, my article gives more detailed explanations.

Where should defenders be drafted? It first depends on your leagues format. My league requires two defensive backs, and three general defenders. The general defenders are players who play any defensive position. I generally draft three line backers, since they have the highest scoring output. It should be noted that some defensive lineman do put up stellar fantasy points. he league I play in gives out points for some elements of the defensive game other leagues may not. The league I play in gives out 4 points for a safety, 1 point per pass defended, 3 points for a sack, and 1 point for a tackle for loss. You have to examine your league scoring settings and then make your assessments about which defensive players to pick. Lavonte David had 206.8 points in the league I played in last year but only 196 with FFToday scoring. It is extremely important to understand the scoring system used in your league. For my analysis about value and defensive players I will utilize FFToday scoring which is listed below.

FFToday
Tackle:	1.00 point each
Assist:	0.50 points each
Sack:	2.00 points for every 0.50
PD:	1.00 point each
INT:	5.00 points each
INTTD:	6.00 points each
FF:	3.00 points each
FR:	2.00 points each
FRTD:	6.00 points each
Safety:	2.00 points each

I compiled a list of 160 players: 14 QB's, 39 RB's, 38 WR's, 10 TE's, 24 DB's, 36 D. The player value stat is calculated based off the fantasy point difference of a given player compared to the last ranked player in their respective positional category.The first defensive player appears on the value list with the 32 pick. That player would be Luke Kuechly. He is projected to score 165.5 points and has a value score of 56.5. Two defensive players with similar numbers appear at the 33rd and 34th spot, J.J. Watt and Lavonte David. Their rankings would indicate these players should be drafted in the 3rd round (based off value). I would not draft them this early. My draft last year saw the first defensive player taken in round 5. The top end defensive players are more similar to their peers then the elite players at other positions, this is evident by the chart below. I mapped out the top five value players per position.

If you can draft one of the top defensive players in the fifth round you are getting them at good value. If that is not an option, you can take a second tier defensive player in the 6th and still begin assembling a formidable defense. Don't take a defensive back before the sixth round, the best defensive back (by projection) is Eric Weddle. His value score is only 30.5. Just because you do not have a position drafted yet does not mean you are obliged to select someone from that positional category. If I don't have a DB drafted in the sixth round, I would select a higher value player at another position if they were still available. If the DB is the highest available value I would select him.

Below is an actual tangible example of drafting defensive players. I just participated in my leagues fantasy draft on the weekend. It has the weird scoring system I listed earlier in the article. The fifth round of my draft is when I took the first defensive player drafted by anyone in the league. I did this because it made sense at the time, which I can display through value.

Round 5	FPP	Value
Reggie Bush (Det - RB)	164.3	42.4
Jordan Cameron (Cle - TE)	122.4	21.1
Sammy Watkins (Buf - WR)	123	2.3
Torrey Smith (Bal - WR)	142.1	22.4
DeSean Jackson (Was - WR)	141.4	20.7
Victor Cruz (NYG - WR)	150	29.3
Shane Vereen (NE - RB)	158.5	36.6
Antonio Gates (SD - TE)	94.1	-7.2
Ryan Mathews (SD - RB)	168.3	46.4
Larry Fitzgerald (Ari - WR)	162.3	41.6
Maurice Jones-Drew (Oak - RB)	136.5	14.6
J.J. Watt (Hou - DE) (My Pick)	194.96	57.2

J.J. Watt was the most sensible pick at the time. His value was exceptionally high. He was the best defensive player on the board. Aside from putting up the most total fantasy points, he exceeded his peers at his position by the largest margin. While some of the people around me drafted average tight ends, and old running backs, I took the best defensive and most valuable player on the board. The chart above should show you the high value that defensive players have in a league that rewards points for tackles for loss, pass deflection, etc; Watt is projected to score one less point than Jimmy Graham in this league!

It is important to draft IDP's just as much as it is any other position in fantasy football. I would not recommend drafting players before the 5th round. You will be able to snag good players at other positions when people start picking defensive players in bunches. Every draft I have been involved in that features IDP see's a slew of individuals draft players after the first IDP player is picked. You do not have to pick a position just because other people are, buck the trend. 17 linebackers exist that are projected to give you between 115 and 130 fantasy points. You can not ignore the defensive position. You must treat them the same as offensive players in fantasy football. Defensive players can make or break your season in an IDP league. Good luck!

2014 Positions, Value, Draft Strategy

2014-08-12T23:35:00.001-04:00

I have taken ADP data from FantasyFootballCalculator which is accurate as of August 9th, as well as projections from FantasyPros which are accurate as of August 9th. The projections from FantasyPros are fairly good as they take data from at least four other sites in order to reach projection numbers based on multiple experts.

I have used the concept of VBD in other articles on this site. I have decided to analyze where players are being drafted via ADP data, and cross referencing their "value". I am doing this in order to determine who is being drafted higher/lower in position than their value would indicate. It is ideal to find players, positions, and areas of the draft that are under/over valued. Gaining this information will help you immensely during the draft for your fantasy league.

The table above displays various stats for quarterbacks. The data shows that many QB's exist who can provide you with similar numbers. The average of the eleven quarterbacks below the top three (Manning, Rodgers, Brees) is 289.6. You can look at the chart and see that there are eight quarterbacks who all have value numbers between 15 and 40. Eight quarterbacks across rounds 4 to 8. If the projections are correct, there will be numerous quarterbacks who are projected to get you between 280 and 310 fantasy points. This data shows that the quarterback position is one that you should not be drafting early. The exception would be if you are drafting Rodgers, Brees, or Manning. These three are projected to bring you so many points that they are actually in the Top 30 players for value. Manning coming in as the 8th most valuable player in the draft, Brees at 28th, Rodgers at 21. Those players can be worked into a draft strategy. What this tells me is that unless you truly believe that any of the players between Matthew Stafford to Colin Kaepernick are going to have a "Peyton Manningesque" season in terms of FPP's; you should not reach in a draft to get one of these players. Don't take Andrew Luck in the fifth (unless you think he will put up a +300 point fantasy year) as you can get RGIII in the seventh who will produce similar numbers.

38 running backs will likely be drafted in the first 100 picks. That element of ADP data shows that most managers draft their 2 (3 if you play in a RB/WR flex league) "starting" running backs and another to back them up within 100 picks. I have seen other managers and even myself carried 4 RB's or more on a roster. Running backs are a needed element on your fantasy team. 16 of the top 30 players by value are running backs. 6 in the 1-10 range, 6 in the 11-20 range, and 4 in the 20-30 range.

If you end up with an high draft pick I would recommend taking Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Lesean McCoy or Matt Forte. There are many running backs who can give you between 190 and 210 fantasy points. My last two sentences may seem careless and rushed, but there is a larger point to be made. You need to draft a running back in the first two rounds. Regardless of if your pick is early, middle, or late in the draft order.

You do not have to draft two running backs right off the bat, in fact I am a proponent of drafting an elite WR and great running back when I have a late first round pick. However, it is clear that you can not wait until the 4th or 5th round to draft your first running back. In most leagues you have to play a minimum 2 running backs. It is evident that your best running back should not be a 160-170 fantasy point guy, you ideally want a player who will exceed 190 fantasy points. Draft an RB in the first two rounds, look for depth at RB in later rounds, find RB sleepers, you need to be researching and drafting running backs if you want a shot at a title this year.

38 wide receivers will likely be drafted in the first 100 picks of the draft. Most leagues require either three WR or two WR with an option of an RB or WR as a flex. Wideout is a position that you must draft intelligently. I believe it is a good idea to draft a strong wide receiver. 10 wide receivers are in the top 30 for fantasy value; 2 in the top 10, 3 from 11 to 20, and 5 from 20 to 30.

Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, and Brandon Marshall are all players I would personally love to have on my fantasy team. I would draft any of these players in the later half of the first through to the end of the second round. I would give consideration to Jordy Nelson, Alshon Jefferey, and Antonio Brown as well (during the second round).

The third to the sixth round features wide receivers who hover between 130 and 160 fantasy points (based on projections). You have to go with your own personal thoughts and research when picking receivers. Plenty of WR exist between the 3rd to 6th round that give you similar production. You need to be drafting players who you believe have upside or will exceed projections. You also need to be drafting great players at other positions if they are still available. My ideal drafts from the 12th spot (I have been practicing picking 12th for an upcoming draft) see me landing Dez Bryant in the first, I then draft the best running back available to pair with him. This allows me to then draft my 2nd running back in the third. I then am able to draft the best available WR or RB in the fourth.

The biggest piece of advice I can give based on WR value stats is don't reach to get wide receivers not in the first or second round. Draft players who you believe will exceed projections, draft players who slide in draft position. If you can get Randall Cobb in the late third round go for it, but don't draft him if it leaves you neglecting your running game. Based on projections there are 12 players who will finish between 130 and 150 fantasy points, and 10 who will finish with between 150 and 170 fantasy points. Wide receiver drafting is all about drafting players who slide and not unnecessarily reaching for players.

Tight ends are an interesting position in fantasy football. Jimmy Graham is projected to have the best season. He is the only tight end projected to break the 1,000 receiving yard mark this year. I have never had Graham on any of my fantasy teams, he is the 17th most valuable player in the draft. I personally would not take him in the first round. In this years draft I truly believe I will be waiting to draft a tight end. Far more valuable players can be drafted at most levels where managers are reaching for tight ends. Many more valuable players exist in the third round when Gronkowski and Thomas are typically being drafted. I would take the following players who are all rated higher then Gronk and Thomas and are projected for the third round: Doug Martin, Zac Stacey, Alshon Jeffrey, Andre Ellington, Randall Cobb, Vicent Jackson, Reggie Bush, C.J. Spiller. Several players projected to go in the fourth round are also better picks then Thomas and Gronk.

It is important to examine value before your fantasy football draft. The chart and projections from sites don't have to completely rule your draft strategy, but they should at least influence it. It is important to not draft players early who have similar point producing players who can be drafted later. Good luck everyone!

2014 Drafting from the 12th Spot

2014-08-07T13:05:00.001-04:00

I have been conducting research on drafting from the 12th spot in a 12 team draft. This includes analyzing stats, as well as conducting mock drafts. I have tried a few different draft strategies and drawn many conclusions. This article should be able to give you advice and a chance to draft a championship team from the 12th spot.

The league I am drafting for features QB, 2 RB's, 3 WR, TE, DEF, and K.

I have conducted many mock drafts in order to prepare for my actual fantasy drafts. I have seen a wide assortment of players get drafted in the eleven picks before mine (the 12th). I would personally recommend drafting an elite WR and elite running back with your first two picks. The best part about picking 12th is you get two solid players at the end of the first round. This has typically lead me to drafting Dez Bryant and Arian Foster. The following list average draft position data, and shows where players have recently been getting drafted. This can give you an idea of who is available when you pick.

Rank	Pick	Name	Pos	Team
1	1.02	LeSean McCoy	RB	PHI
2	1.02	Jamaal Charles	RB	KC
3	1.04	Adrian Peterson	RB	MIN
4	1.04	Matt Forte	RB	CHI
5	1.05	Calvin Johnson	WR	DET
6	1.06	Eddie Lacy	RB	GB
7	1.08	Jimmy Graham	TE	NO
8	1.09	Demaryius Thomas	WR	DEN
9	1.09	Peyton Manning	QB	DEN
10	1.1	Marshawn Lynch	RB	SEA
11	1.1	Montee Ball	RB	DEN
12	1.11	Dez Bryant	WR	DAL
13	2.02	Arian Foster	RB	HOU
14	2.02	A.J. Green	WR	CIN
15	2.03	DeMarco Murray	RB	DAL
16	2.05	LeVeon Bell	RB	PIT
17	2.05	Julio Jones	WR	ATL
18	2.05	Brandon Marshall	WR	CHI
19	2.07	Aaron Rodgers	QB	GB
20	2.08	Giovani Bernard	RB	CIN
21	2.08	Drew Brees	QB	NO

Data accurate as of August 3rd,2014

I believe it is important to snag a running back as well as an elite wide receiver. I could take two running backs or two wide receivers. The reason I choose not to do this is that by doing so I would be losing out on point production at the position I do not choose.
Taking Dez Bryant is a good move. He is in a class of recieiver that provides your team a serious advantage. He resides in what I deem as the top tier of wide receiver. He is ranked fourth on the current Fantasy Pro projections for the year. I believe he has the ability to exceed the projections and possibly be the best wide receiver in the league. The value chart I made has Dez Bryant producing 64.8 points more then the 29th receiver being taken. This link can give you an explanation on Value Based Drafting. He is a valuable draft pick. Technically Julio Jones is more valuable then Dez Bryant based off Fantasy Pros projections, but I go with Dez because I truly believe he will score more points.

Player	FPTS
Calvin Johnson (DET)	228.5
Demaryius Thomas (DEN)	219.4
Julio Jones (ATL)	202.4
Dez Bryant (DAL)	198.2
A.J. Green (CIN)	194.5
Brandon Marshall (CHI)	190.6
Jordy Nelson (GB)	185.1
Alshon Jeffery (CHI)	184.8
Antonio Brown (PIT)	184.7
Randall Cobb (GB)	171.9

Picking Arian Foster (or the best running back available) is an extremely important move to make for your second pick. The alternative to drafting a running back would be drafting a second wide receiver. It is important to snag a quality WR, but grabbing two could be a very ill advised move. This would lead you to rely on lower point producing running backs to anchor your running game. The chart below show the difference in projected points if you were to draft two a WR/RB in the first vs WR/WR in the first.

Player	Points	Player	Points
Dez Bryant	198.2	Dez Bryant	198.2
Arian Foster	207.6	AJ Green	194.5
Vincent Jackson	166.5	Bishop Sankey	174.5
Bishop Sankey	174.5	Ryan Mathews	168.3
Total	746.8	Total	735.5

It is truly beneficial to draft a top wide receiver and running back with your first two picks. When the time comes for your next set of picks I advise taking a wide receiver and running back once more. My personal suggestion is to take Wes Welker at wide receiver if he is still available. His Average Draft Position has not been very high, although he has been quite a formidable fantasy receiver for many years. You can draft several other talented receivers such as Vincent Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Percy Harvin, and Victor Cruz. Take whichever receiver you believe will have the best year. Next I would draft the best running back available. In my recent mock drafts that can be anyone from Andre Ellington, Bishop Sankey, Ryan Mathews, Reggie Bush, CJ Spiller, or Toby Gerhart. Evaluate who you think has the best chance of success this year and draft that player.

My next two picks I choose to take the best receiver available and possibly a QB or Tight End. Bear in mind you should always draft the best player possible. So if the draft you participate in somehow has a very good running back still around at this point draft him. I have been able to draft TY Hilton, Julian Edelman, and even Percy Harvin in the fifth round. If Vernon Davis is still around at this point I am tempted to take him. If Nick Foles is available I take him. Michael Floyd is another receiver I take if still available.There is QB depth in this draft. The core of this article and my advice from the 12th spot is to go WR/RB in the first.

This article provides a basic frame work for drafting from the 12th spot. I personally suggest taking a strong elite WR, as well as a top ten running back in the first round. The following rounds can see you pick your QB whenever you feel is right, however I personally believe it is best to grab another good RB and WR with your second set of picks. Remember to always attempt to draft the best and most valuable player possible, capitalize on the players who slide down to you. The 12th spot is not a bad spot to pick from, it can actually be very advantageous! Good luck!

2014 Fantasy Football Draft Part I

2014-07-13T15:58:00.000-04:00

How are you going to win your fantasy football pool this year? That is certainly a good question. No guarantees exist in fantasy football. One of the things you can do is try and have the best draft possible. I have won two championships in a row in an IDP standard league. What was the key to my success? Who I drafted and when I drafted them. The most important element of the draft is drafting players when they slide down in draft position. I believe in drafting players who offer more value than their peers.

To find my approach to the 2014 fantasy football draft I first analyze last year’s numbers. It is important to analyze the numbers to understand how to group players, and to see the distribution of points at the various positions.

The easiest way to display this principle is by examining the top 12 quarterbacks. I base my calculations off groupings of twelve due to being in a twelve team league. I also do calculations based off the top 6 at a position. It is also a good idea to group players into tiers, but we will get to that later. The average of the top twelve quarterbacks from last year came to 366, the top six came to 399. By those calculations Stafford, Dalton, Brees and Manning were the truly exceptional quarterbacks. Peyton Manning was the most valuable fantasy football player last season. He exceeded the average of the top 12 quarterbacks by 131 points. Peyton Manning provided production that far exceeded his peers.

Player	FFPts
Peyton Manning	496.8
Drew Brees	437.5
Andy Dalton	377.1
Matthew Stafford	367.8
Cam Newton	359.7
Philip Rivers	359.1
Andrew Luck	345.2
Ben Roethlisberger	341
Matt Ryan	335.3
Russell Wilson	331.8
Ryan Tannehill	321.5
Colin Kaepernick	320

Here is a list of players who greatly exceeded their positional top 12 average.

Name	Points
Peyton Manning	130.73
Jimmy Graham	86.24167
Jamaal Charles	84.48333
Drew Brees	71.43
LeSean McCoy	53.08333
Matt Forte	37.68333
Vernon Davis	31.74167
Josh Gordon	26.275
Demaryius Thomas	25.875
Calvin Johnson	19.775
Julius Thomas	19.54167
Marshawn Lynch	13.68333
Andy Dalton	11.033

Although Peyton Manning was the best fantasy player of 2013, I am still trying to decide where I will draft him in 2014. The reason being the amount of quarterbacks I start in my league. I can only start one running back a week, while I have to start two running backs, and three receivers. Over the next few days I will be participating in mock drafts to attempt to find out the best draft strategy from the 12^th spot. The 12^th spot is where I will be drafting in one of my leagues, so it will be beneficial research for me and hopefully for you readers! I will also have general draft tips, and lot of information pertaining to the 2014 fantasy football draft.

Update

2014-04-04T15:50:00.002-04:00

I am currently analyzing statistics from last season. I am going to be comparing year to year data, the NFL schedule (when it is released), and several other factors in order to make predictions for the upcoming year. I plan to make a great draft cheat sheet based of the wonderful one I used for fantasy baseball.

To prepare for my fantasy baseball draft I scoured the internet for solid advice/data. I came across http://www.mrcheatsheet.com and was incredibly impressed with the cheat sheets I found. I plan to make a cohesive and helpful cheat sheet just as Mr.Cheatsheet did for baseball. I can't wait for the the upcoming fantasy football season!

2013 Season Summary/What I Learned

2014-03-23T16:16:00.001-04:00

My 2013 season was full of ups and downs. I learned many valuable lessons from both my leagues. I learned to not buy in on over hyped players, to value consistency, and to draft players who produce above average fantasy points at their position. A key to fantasy drafting is getting players when they slide down in draft position, and not reaching to get average players. My ten man league (no flex, 3 WR, with individual defensive players) saw me repeat as champion. I only lost once all season. I finished 15-1 including the playoffs. 12-1 was my regular season record.

I knew my season was going to be successful immediately after the draft. My first pick was Doug Martin. Doug Martin did not even end up being that great of a pick. My stellar drafting allowed that fact to not matter. Doug Martin only played six games, had 456 yards, and scored one touchdown. His season ending injury did not even hurt my team. It would have crippled some teams if their first pick sustained a monstrous injury, not mine. My running backs included: Doug Martin, Knowshon Moreno, Chris Johnson, and Giovanni Bernard (at the time of Martin's injury). My receiving corps consisted of Dez Bryant, AJ Green, and Jordy Nelson. All of the players I mentioned in the past two paragraphs were draft picks except Knowshon, who I snagged off the waiver wire. Drafting is the key to any fantasy season. Picking the "wrong" player in the first few rounds can be devastating. The second, third, and fourth rounds are incredibly important. To be honest every round is important, but the early rounds more so. It is also important to keep your eyes out for players who slide. I drafted Jordy Nelson with the ninth pick in the 10th round!

My twelve team league has shown me that it is never a good idea to draft a player who you are unsure of in the early rounds. I drafted Lamar Miller based entirely off the fact that "experts" were saying he was going to be a number one running back. People were claiming that he was the go to guy in Miami. He did show some flashes of brilliance, but did not produce solid numbers most of the year. It could have had to do with the Dolphins disastrous offensive line situation. The Johnathan Martin and Richie Incognito saga. I was attempting to draft three remarkable running backs. I wanted a strong running back in my flex spot. While my ten man league is a 3 wide receiver league, this league utilizes a flex. I know hind sight is twenty/twenty, but if I had not bought into the hype I could have drafted Eddie Lacy or Demarco Murray. Lacy was a player who I had extreme confidence in going into the season, but as I sad I bought into Miller hype. My own personal belief was that Lacy was a strong runner and was going to be on a power house offense. I should have picked him and trusted my beliefs instead of taking a running back for the Dolphins. A running back for the Dolphins who I really knew nothing about. I could have even drafted Eric Decker, or Wes Welker. I ended up finishing 7-7 this year. 9-7 if you count my wins in the consolation playoff. My whole season came down to my errant Miller pick. I almost has a trade deadline trade where I would have sent Tony Gonzalez and Miller for Julius Thomas. The trade did not end up going through, but it would not have saved me and bumped me into the playoffs.

I can not emphasize enough that the majority of your fantasy football success hinges on the draft. Acquiring players who find themselves in starting roles off waivers is important, it could be one of the vital points to your season, But you can not win an entire year off waivers, you need a good draft.

About Me

2014-03-23T16:02:00.000-04:00

I am a passionate football fan. I have loved the Phoenix/Arizona Cardinals since using them while playing Tecmo Super Bowl on the Nintendo Entertainment System. I remember launching passes with Tom Tupa, making catches with Ricky Proehl, running the ball with Vai Sikahema, and playing defense with Ken Harvey. I have watched Jake Plummer, Josh McCown, Matt Leinart, Kurt Warner, Derek Anderson, Max Hall, John Skelton, Kevin Kolb, and Carson Palmer all launch balls to quality receivers like Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and David Boston.

I could list off Cardinals players for quite some time (on both sides of the ball). How does any of this relate to fantasy football? Fantasy football allows you to draft a team that you manage over the course of an NFL season. I am a fan of football to the point where I watch Thursday night games with two sub .500 teams. I don't just watch Cardinal games, I'll watch any NFL game. Not everyone loves the sport to that degree, but fantasy football could give any fan a reason to watch a game.

Fantasy football makes every NFL game more significant. The Texans had a disappointing 2013 season, but I'm sure Andre Johnson owners had to be at least some what pleased with his performance. Lots of people enjoyed watching Josh Gordon amass yardage through the season on the Cleveland Browns. Fantasy football can make you upset when a team chooses to run the ball in for a touchdown instead of passing it to the tight end who happens to be on your fantasy team. Fantasy football gives every game more meaning to the casual and/or hardcore fan.

Fantasy football can lead to happiness, glory, frustration and sadness. It covers the whole spectrum of emotions. It puts you in charge of all decision making regarding your team. It will lead you to pick players on rival teams, take chances on rookies, and lead to wishes for production from old stars.

This site is dedicated to knowledge. I give advice on fantasy football. This advice is not based off personal bias, my favourite teams, my favourite players, or any other elements of bias. The information on this site is based off analysis and math. I examine statistics and attempt to provide readers with the most educated guesses I can give as to what will happen. My draft guides attempt to give the reader the best information possible. I examine stats and mock drafts to prepare you for your fantasy draft.

I would love to write about football full time, but this site is currently just a labour of love. I put tons of time into my research and writing of draft guides, articles, game predictions, and all other aspects of the website. If you have any questions or comments please leave me a message in the comment box.

Good luck!
Travis

Team Defense Passing Yards

2014-01-17T14:37:00.000-05:00

Passing Defense

In the year 2012 the average NFL team gave up 231 yards a game or 3701 yards a year through the air. The average from 2009-2013 was 227 yards a game, or 3637 yards a year. I examined the stats from 2009 to 2013 and attempted to figure out how much teams passing defense deviates from year to year. Below are the passing defense numbers from 2012.

In 2013 the average team allowed 237 yards a game through the air, or 3770 throughout the year. A slight increase compared to 2012. Below are the passing defense stats for teams from 2013.

My main interest in examining these numbers was to find out what the average change in a teams pass defense was from year to year. The chart below illustrates the amount of change that teams went through from 2012 to 2013. The number does not indicate whether the change is positive in yardage or negative, but displays the total amount of change in yards. I will examine the teams that changed positively or negatively in more detail after displaying the chart.

The average change in passing yardage given up from the year 2012 to 2013 was 30 yards a game, or 480 yards in a season. The inter-quartile mean average (eliminating the top 8 and bottom 8 teams) was 26.6 yards per game or 424.8 yards in a season. The average change over the five years I examined (year to year change, ie; 2009-2010, 2011-2012 etc;) was 26.2 yards a game or 419.2 yards over a season.

The chart above displays teams overall passing defence rank. In 2012, 17 teams we're above the average passing yardage allowed in the league. In 2013, 16 teams were above the average passing yards allowed for the league. The following teams we're able to stay above average from 2012 to 2013: Seattle Seahawks, Houston Texans, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Carolina Panthers, San Francisco 49ers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Arizona Cardinals, and the Chicago Bears. That is a total of ten teams. The following teams did not return to being above average: St. Louis Rams, New York Jets, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles. That totals to seven teams.

The following teams finished with below average defenses from 2012 to 2013: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New England Patriots, Washington Redskins, Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles. That totals to ten teams. The following teams finished below average in 2012 but improved to being above average in 2013: New Orleans Saints, Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins. That is a total of six teams.

It is clearly possible for teams to improve their passing defense from one year to another. It appears that it is more likely for a team who is good one year to be good the next. More teams return to being above average then slip to being below average. The same can be true of the below average teams. More teams remain below average as opposed to improving and becoming above average.

Team Defense Total Points

2014-01-14T16:12:00.000-05:00

In the year 2012 the average NFL team gave up 364 points or 22.75 points a game. If you take all 32 NFL teams and take the median you have the San Diego Chargers giving up 350 points or 21.87 points a game. For my example we will use the average instead of the median. Using the mean instead of the median causes the inclusion of 2 more teams being above the “line” of not finishing below average in points allowed.

The above chart displays that the following teams had below average defense in terms of points allowed: Cleveland Brown, New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts, Washington Redskins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, Tennessee Titans.

I was interested to see how much these teams points allowed stat would change from 2012 to 2013. Below is a chart displaying that information.

The average for 2013 changed to 23.4 (more scoring throughout the NFL) and the median to the Tennessee Titans giving up 23.81. I once again use the mean instead of the median to calculate below average teams. The below average teams are as follows: Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Dallas Cowboys, Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, Chicago Bears, Washington Redskins, Minnesota Vikings.

Of the 15 teams who finished below average defensively, 13 returned as below average teams the following year. The exceptions to this trend were the Saints and the Chiefs. The Saints and the Chiefs both improve their total points by over 100 points. The Saints improved by 150 points or 9.37 points a game, while the Chiefs improved by 120 or 7.39 points a game.

The average change in a defense from 2009-2013 was 3.83 points a game, or 61.28 points over a season. The average from 2012 to 2013 was 3.67 points a game or 58.72 points over a season. The Chiefs and Saints we're clearly anomalies in the way they improved their defense to a such a large degree.

The Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons, and Chicago Bears all had drastic changes in their point totals.

These teams illustrate that it is possible for defenses who finish in the upper tier of the league to have a drop off in point total that exceed the norm. Out of the 32 NFL teams 11 of them had a change in terms of moving either up or down below the league average for points given up. I have listed the teams that had the most drastic changes.

Playoff Pool Picks

2014-01-05T02:51:00.002-05:00

This week I picked the Colts to beat the Chiefs, the Saints to beat the Eagles, the 49ers to beat the Packers, and the Bengals to beat the Chargers.

Update

2013-12-17T19:17:00.001-05:00

I have many big plans for this website. I plan to learn elements of computer programming in order to utilize my calculations to project stats for next season. I want to analyze teams, trends, scoring, and other elements of fantasy football. I also plan to launch a weekly fantasy show next year, and will have a partner contributing to this site.

My fantasy football season has had many ups and downs. I gambled and drafted Lamar Miller in my 12 man league. I bought into his hype being spewed out by other fantasy football writers. I have no regrets. If he had panned out I would have had three starting running backs. In my twelve man league I am 7-7. Playing in the consolation playoffs (4 teams made the playoffs, 4 teams made the consolation playoffs) to attempt to win the prize of not paying a league fee.

My ten man league has seen me completely dominate. I finished the season 12-1. The league is absurd. 8 make the playoffs out of ten. I have advanced onto the finals and hope to repeat as season and playoff champion. My defensive players (IDP league) have performed well. My first three picks of Doug Martin, A.J. Green, and Dez Bryant worked out even with Martin getting a season ending injury.

I am 108-110 in picking against the spread for the year. I sit in 5th place, I am six wins away from first place with two weeks left in the season. I will have to pick very well in order to land in first place.

I hope that the fantasy year was kind to anyone who checked out this blog. I plan to have an improved draft strategy, and some really amazing content for everyone next year.

Week 11 Waiver Pick Up

2013-11-12T18:18:00.000-05:00

November is flying by! The eleventh week of the NFL season is upon us. The pool of players available for waiver pick is barren (unless you are in a sub 10 team league). If you are looking for a player off waivers, you will have few quality options. Most of the stellar players not drafted have either already been picked up, or ended up fizzling out (yes I was on the Edelman band wagon early in the year).

Riley Cooper

He is currently owned in 51% of Yahoo! leagues, he should be owned in all. It is quite possible he is already owned in twelve team leagues and higher. Last week I advised fantasy owners to pick up Riley Cooper off waivers. Those who followed the advice we're rewarded with a huge performance against the Packers. Cooper scored two touchdowns, and had a total of 102 receiving yards. Nick Foles and Riley Cooper have amazing chemistry, and the duo has proved they we're not one week wonders. He has amassed 55.90 fantasy points over the last two weeks, and has cemented himself as a legitimate fantasy receiver for the remainder of the year. I like that the numbers we're attained in games where the Eagles we're not playing catch up. The success came in a 27-13 win over Green Bay, and Nick Foles record tying day, a seven touchdown performance in a 49-20 win over the Raiders. This proves that Foles throws to Cooper even when the Eagles have a lead, which is a good sign.

Jerricho Cotchery
If you are looking for a fill in for Dallas' bye week, I would suggest Jerricho Cotchery. He is only owned in 14% of Yahoo! leagues. He has a respectable 82 fantasy points on the year. He has reached the endzone six times this year, four times in the last two weeks. Some would call his surge of touchdowns flukey, I say it shows that Ben Roethlisberger throws him the ball in the red zone. There are worse players to take a chance on then Jericho Cotchery in Week 1. He has had 36.7 points over the past two weeks, if he stays hot he could benefit your team. The Steelers will be playing Detroit, who do give up a fair amount of points to wide receivers. Hopefully Big Ben continues to get him the ball in the red zone.

Week 10 Pool Picks

2013-11-07T14:04:00.001-05:00

I am currently in a pool where you pick winners based on the spread. I plan to post about my progress throughout the year. 33 other guys are picking, it should be interesting.
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Spread Pool Picks

Last week I went 6 for 13. I currently sit in 5th place out of thirty three teams in my Pick'Em League. My record is 66-65. Here are my picks for Week 10.

Week 8 Pool Picks

2013-10-23T12:33:00.001-04:00

I am currently in a pool where you pick winners based on the spread. I plan to post about my progress throughout the year. 33 other guys are picking, it should be interesting.
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Spread Pool Picks

Last week I went 7 and 8. I currently sit in 6th place out of thirty three teams in my Pick'Em League. My record is 52-53. Here are my picks for Week 8. It looks weird that I am going all favorites, however I think those teams have the best chance of winning/covering the points .

Week 7 Pool Picks

2013-10-17T12:27:00.001-04:00

I am currently in a pool where you pick winners based on the spread. I plan to post about my progress throughout the year. 33 other guys are picking, it should be interesting.
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Spread Pool Picks

Last week I went 5 for 10. I currently sit in 6th place out of thirty three teams in my Pick'Em League. My record is 45-45. Here are my picks for Week 7. It was a rough week. I am still close to the leader, but I hope to have a good week and make up some ground.

Week 6 Pool Picks

2013-10-09T12:34:00.003-04:00

I am currently in a pool where you pick winners based on the spread. I plan to post about my progress throughout the year. 33 other guys are picking, it should be interesting.

Suicide Pool Pick

Won 1st week picking the Colts over the Raiders.

I won the 2nd week picking New England over the New York Jets

I won the 3rd week taking Dallas over the St.Louis Rams
I won last week taking San Fransisco 49ers over the St.Louis Rams
I lost last Week picking the Falcons to beat the Jets and am out of the Suicide Pool.

Spread Pool Picks

Last week I went 8 for 14. I currently sit in 2nd place out of thirty three teams in my Pick'Em League. My record is 40-35. (2 points behind the leader). Here are my picks for Week 6.

Week 5 Pool Picks

2013-10-02T17:44:00.000-04:00

I am currently in a pool where you pick winners based on the spread. I plan to post about my progress throughout the year. 33 other guys are picking, it should be interesting. I am also in a suicide pool. The suicide pool is straight up, no spread.

Suicide Pool Pick

Won 1st week picking the Colts over the Raiders.

I won the 2nd week picking New England over the New York Jets

I won the 3rd week taking Dallas over the St.Louis Rams
I last week taking San Fransisco 49ers over the St.Louis Rams
This week I am taking the Atlanta Falcons over the New York Jets

Spread Pool Picks
Last week I went 10 for 15. I currently sit in 6th place out of thirty three teams in my Pick'Em League. My record is 32-29. (1 point behind the leader). Here are my picks for Week 5.

*I changed my pick to Green Bay when I found out Calvin Johnson was injured, and switched to Jacksonville pre-game.

Week 4 Pool Picks

2013-09-26T17:15:00.004-04:00

Suicide Pool Pick

Won 1st week picking the Colts over the Raiders.

I won the 2nd week picking New England over the New York Jets

I won the 3rd week taking Dallas over the St.Louis Rams
This week taking San Fransisco 49ers over the St.Louis Rams

Spread Pool Picks
Last week I went 8 for 8. I currently sit in 6th place out of thirty three teams in my Pick'Em League. My record is 22-25. Here are my picks for Week 4.

Week 3 Pool Picks

2013-09-19T15:16:00.001-04:00

I am currently in a Pool where you pick winners based on the spread. I plan to post about my progress throughout the year. 34 other guys are picking, it should be interesting. I am also in a suicide pool. The suicide pool is straight up, no spread.

Suicide Pool Pick

Won 1st week picking the Colts over the Raiders.

I won the last week picking New England over the New York Jets

This week I am taking Dallas over the St.Louis Rams

Spread Pool Picks
Last week I went 7 for 9. I currently sit in 14th place out of thirty three teams in my Pick'Em League. My record is 14-17. I am looking for a huge week this week. Here are my picks for Week 3.