Money Daily

WEEKEND WRAP: Time to Panic? NASDAQ Suffers Largest Point Loss Ever; Gold, Silver Smashed; Bitcoin Slashed to 22-Month Lows

2026-06-08T10:06:17.931-04:00

How bad was Friday's stock market washout?

That depends on which index one wishes to measure, and by what means. The NASDAQ suffered the worst one-day point decline in its history, though on a percentage basis, the 1,121.53-point decline didn't even make the top 20. It lost 4.18%, which was bad enough, but the 20 largest percentage drops were all upwards of six percent.

The S&P's 200.59-point drop was the sixth-largest in point terms, but far from a disaster. The 2.64% decline wasn't even close to the largest percentage losses on the large-cap index, the worst being October 19, 1987's 20.47% collapse. In this century, the March 16, 2020 COVID-induced panic drop was an 11.98% decline. The index recovered within months.

The idea that the NASDAQ's largest point loss ever points to the extreme over-valuation on that index and on the S&P. Some of the more popular trades have been made in stocks that are "over their skis" so to speak. They are priced beyond perfection. Any little change may have a more pronounced effect in those shares.

From a Shakespearian perspective, Friday's tech trouncing was "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." Most of the stocks that took the largest losses were those that were already floating amongst AI and semiconductor clouds.

Stocks

Hopes for a rebound back toward all-time highs were dashed by Friday's wipeout in equities, though the S&P and NASDAQ were far more affected than the Dow or NYSE Composite. Dow Transports actually gained 2.35% on the week.

Individual stocks that were trounced on Friday included chip darling, Nvidia (NVDA), which dropped more than six percent, though the loss only brought the high-flyer back to where it was a month ago. Another was Zuckerberg's Meta Platforms (META), which lost 5.51% in the Friday session. A poor performer this year (-10.16% ytd) and from a year ago (-14.56%), META leads the field in fantasy, sporting a 21.55 PE ratio and a 0.35% dividend yield. While the company continues to produce outsized profits, long-term holders and insiders have been bailing. Maybe it's the worst TV ads ever or Zuck's punchable face. Something is amiss that's larger than Friday's demise.

Elon Musk's Tesla (TSLA) defines the price versus value argument. The stock recently quadrupled since 2023 and is up 22% over the past year, but it took a 6.6% hit on Friday and is down 13% year-to-date. Its PE ratio is somewhere in the 350 range and the company pays no dividend. It's Musk's personal cash cow and the utmost in momentum trades. It stalled out on Friday and prospects for recovery are questionable.

Other Magnificent Seven stocks were less affected. Amazon (AMZN) dropped three percent while Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet, parent of Google (GOOG) lost 1.25% and 0.95%, respectively. Netflix (NFLX) actually gained 0.76%, mostly because they aren't involved in the AI arms race. Microsoft (MSFT) dropped a well-deserved 2.66%.

The worst losses were in the semiconductor space. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) dropped 10.86%. Micron Technology (MU) lost 13.25%. Intel (INTC), -11.28%; SanDisk (SNDK), -11.39%. Oracle, -9.59%; Broadcom, -7.92%; Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), -6.69%.

While these stocks all took on water Friday, it has to be understood that they were being driven higher and higher by market forces that see no alternatives and have mountains of cash available with which to pump any given stock or sector. For a change, shorts made a profit, but there's ample opportunity for these same stocks to rebound, and maybe, quickly.

The week ahead features more stragglers and not-so-household names reporting first quarter results.

Monday: (before open) Duluth Trading (DLTH), Campbell's (CPB), FuelCell Energy (FCEL); (after close) Mama's Creations (MAMA), Vail Resorts (MTN)

Tuesday: (before open) Academy Sports (ASO), Lands' End (LE), J.M. Smucker (SJM), SailPoint (SAIL); (after close) Cracker Barrel (CBRL), Casey's (CASY), Bark (BARK)

Wednesday: (before open) Chewy (CHWY); (after close) Oracle (ORCL), Aethlon Medical (AEMD), Stitch Fix (SFIX)

Thursday: (before open) Vera Bradley (VRA), McGraw Hill (MH); (after close) Adobe (ADBE), Lennar (LEN)

Friday: NONE

Data will have a focus on the inflation picture in the week ahead. Monday, the NY Fed ponies up the monthly consumer inflation expectations survey. Not hard to predict what that will look like. On Tuesday, U.S. Trade Balance is in focus along with Existing Home Sales. The BLS delivers May CPI on Wednesday with PPI out Thursday along with the weekly unemployment claims, initial and continuing.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
05/01/2026	3.71	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.76	3.71	3.73
05/08/2026	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.69	3.75	3.74	3.75
05/15/2026	3.71	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.76	3.77	3.82
05/22/2026	3.72	3.69	3.69	3.68	3.78	3.79	3.86
05/29/2026	3.72	3.71	3.71	3.69	3.78	3.78	3.79
06/05/2026	3.71	3.71	3.71	3.78	3.78	3.81	3.88

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
05/01/2026	3.88	3.91	4.02	4.20	4.39	4.96	4.97
05/08/2026	3.90	3.92	4.02	4.19	4.38	4.93	4.95
05/15/2026	4.09	4.14	4.26	4.43	4.59	5.14	5.12
05/22/2026	4.13	4.18	4.27	4.41	4.56	5.06	5.07
05/29/2026	3.98	4.06	4.13	4.27	4.45	4.98	4.99
06/05/2026	4.17	4.22	4.29	4.41	4.55	5.03	5.01

Fear was not confined to stocks on Friday, nor during earlier parts of the week. Notes and bonds were being sold off willy-nilly, with the 2-year leading the folly, the yield up a whopping 19 basis points. The 10-year yield bounded back above 4.50%, to 4.55% on Friday and may be headed higher with a potential rate hike signal from the FOMC next week. Expectations are for the Fed to stand pat on rates, but possibly signal a coming hiking regime given the Tuesday-Wednesday meeting will be the first under Kevin Warsh's chairmanship. Warsh is likely to take a moderate approach rather than rock the financial boat on his maiden voyage.

The spread on the 2s-10s narrowed considerably, nine basis points lower, at +38, tightening up the yield curve. Full spectrum spreads remain elevated, at +130, and that may become more pronounced depending on the FOMC messaging next week. Lending to the U.S. government for any period longer than two years may be a dangerous prospect given the current inflation picture. Yields on long maturities may spike higher, leaving early buyers who thought they were getting good value as bag-holders.

The entire funding mechanism for Western economies is under assault from a variety of perspectives. Lack of trust in U.S. dealings and ongoing military conflicts have eroded confidence, sending yields higher, though the eventual destination may be as much as two percent upside from here, implying 10-year yields at 6-7% and 30-year yields as high as 8.00%. It's not like it hasn't happened before. Revisit the 1970s for reference.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130

Oil/Gas

The U.S. megaphone from the White House continues to tout "nearing a deal" in the Iran conflict while the warring parties treat the temporary ceasefire as an opportunity to take pot-shots without severe consequences. Just about every day one side or the other is accused of violating the terms of the ceasefire, and every day there is no further escalation. It has to be one of the dumbest wars ever started by the U.S. and that includes Ukraine and Vietnam, each utterly devoid of purpose other than enhancing MIC profits. The Iran war, now more than a three-month "excursion", was supposed to be short-lived, and, by the way, already won, by the good guys, Israel and the U.S.A. The farce continues.

Oil flows continue to be squeezed at Strait of Hormuz and in the Indian Ocean.

WTI crude futures closed out the week at $90.26. While the price of WTI crude has been contained in a range from $90-$110 recently, this week's small bounce may be sending a signal that the side-stepping lower will continue. The pattern is such that oil prices might drop into a lower range between $80 and $85 per barrel and remain in place while the White House pulls rabbits out of strategic hats. This could also signal a near-term bottom, given the rabbits have fled the scene and the conflict with Iran may escalate back to full-blown war, a scenario that has the White House in fear because that would mean more missiles raining down on regional U.S. bases and greater Israel, which the Iranians reduced to "lesser Israel" back in March.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.29 last week and $4.11 this week, another solid move lower, but the question is how long this, and even lower prices, can be maintained.

Prices at the pump have been kept out of crisis range, but some are warning that this may be only temporary, as reserves are being drained to keep prices under control. The disruption in the Persian Gulf is real enough and will affect Asian, African and some European and South American countries before the U.S. begins to feel any real pain.

Prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.88 (-0.14)
Washington: $5.62 (-0.10)
Oklahoma (lowest): $3.59 (-0.18)
Mississippi: $3.72 (-0.12)
Florida: $3.75 (-0.27)
Illinois: $4.54 (-0.20)
Pennsylvania: $4.32 (-0.15)
New York: $4.43 (-0.07)
Maryland: $3.96 (-0.20)
Michigan: $4.13 (-0.13)
Texas: $4.58 (-0.19)
Georgia: $3.79 (-0.01)

On Sunday, June 7th, there are fourteen (23) states with average prices below $4.00, a large move from just five last week, with 25 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.56) and Alaska ($5.16), with four above $5 (California, Nevada, Washington, Oregon). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past three weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging well below $4.00 in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi.

Bitcoin

This week: $61,809.72
Last week: $73,835.71
2 weeks ago: $76,800.00
6 months ago: $91,282.38
One year ago: $105,525.30
Five years ago: $35,479.57

Tough week for bitcoin and other crypto "hodlers", as the price of completely phony currency dropped more than $10,000. Bitcoin briefly dipped into the 50s Friday, touching $59,348. With any luck, this marks the beginning of the end for bogus money. The world already has enough fake currencies. There's literally no need for anything else.

Bitcoin's price has dipped into an area of support which held up as resistance through most of 2024 before ramping higher. The area is defined as roughly between $53,000 and $65,000, the latter figure having served as resistance relative to highs from 2021. This area is now support, though from a chartist's perspective, it doesn't appear capable of holding very long. While many of the world's honored institutions are under pressure and being questioned, why is there any faith in this short term fiction?

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 63.80; last week: 60.30

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 5/8: $4,723.70
Gold price 5/15: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/22: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/29: $4,569.90
Gold price 6/5: $4,353.90

Silver price 5/8: $80.83
Silver price 5/15: $76.29
Silver price 5/22: $75.92
Silver price 5/29: $75.58
Silver price 6/5: $68.00

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 5/8: $4,714.90
Gold 5/15: $4,539.72
Gold 5/22: $4,508.74
Gold 5/29: $4,538.94
Gold 6/5: $4,327.57

Silver 5/8: $80.35
Silver 5/15: $75.94
Silver: 5/22: $75.48
Silver 5/29: $75.27
Silver 6/5: $67.83

There's no good reason that gold and silver would go down more than stocks like they did on Friday and have been for the past six months other than COMEX and the LBMA continuing their successful derivate suppression of precious metals as opposed to worthless fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar, the euro, yen, and pound.

The United States is alone in its demand that gold and silver not appreciate against paper currencies. This condition, more than 50 years old, is likely to persist for another number of years, which is why the suggestion to sell part of one's holdings remains a viable strategy from a short-term perspective. It is not something anybody with a generational view should perform, however, as gold and silver routinely out-perform - and outlive - fiat currencies every time. If you hold it, you own it, regardless of what the authorities have in mind.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	74.99	89.00	79.68	78.31
1 oz silver bar:	78.03	90.10	81.73	81.39
1 oz gold coin:	4485.95	4689.11	4596.25	4586.87
1 oz gold bar:	4507.63	4587.17	4532.98	4522.00

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell to its lowest level since December, 2025, from $86.55 on May 31, to $80.28 on June 7, a loss of $6.27 per troy ounce, well below the recent range.

WEEKEND WRAP

Boy, was the first week of June fun! Unless one was heavily exposed to momentum stocks, gold, silver, or fixed income (which wasn't as hard hit), it was something of a bummer, but, as has been the case since 2020, most of these things bounce back and in some rather large ways. Anybody who thinks this week's profit-taking dump was the beginning of the end for the stock market rally simply hasn't been paying attention. There is likely to be a dead cat bounce on Monday and resumption of stock frenzy in the week ahead. Taht pesky Fed has an FOMC meeting coming up next Tuesday and Wednesday, but the week ahead appears to be a "buy-the-dip" opportunity.

At the Close, Friday, June 5, 2026:
Dow: 50,866.78, -695.15 (-1.35%)
NASDAQ: 25,709.43, -1,121.53 (-4.18%)
S&P 500: 7,383.74, -200.57 (-2.64%)
NYSE Composite: 23,256.50, -316.27 (-1.34%)

For the Week:
Dow: -165.68 (-0.32%)
NASDAQ: -1263.19 (-4.68%)
S&P 500: -196.32 (-2.59%)
NYSE Composite: -35.67 (-0.15%)
Dow Transports: +503.22 (+2.35%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

NASDAQ Slides, Stock Market Surprised at May Non-Farm Payrolls as Wild Week Concludes

2026-06-06T09:01:42.159-04:00

As usual, the first Friday of the month brings forward the BLS with the monthly non-farm payroll data, the survey for May showing a steady, if not astoundingly-robust labor market:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, local government, and health care. Employment in financial activities declined.

Perhaps even more surprising were the revisions. March was revised up by 29,000, from +185,000 to +214,000, and the change for April was revised up by 64,000, from +115,000 to +179,000. Is the investing world to believe that employment has grown by 565,000 jobs in the last three months after losing 150,000 jobs in February? Well, OK, though the futures market was not impressed.

Dow futures dropped back to unchanged on the release, while the S&P slumped, down more than 50 points and the NASDAQ, which was already down sharply, down 450 heading for the open.

For the week, the Dow is up 529 points as of Thursday's close. The NASDAQ, in an up-and-down scenario, has dropped just 23 points, and the S&P is up 30.

NASDAQ looking pretty ugly after South Korea's KOSPI slid sharply overnight.

So far, June has not been a joy. Friday should be full of fireworks.

At the Close,Thirsday, June 4, 2026:
Dow: 51,561.93, +874.86 (+1.73%)
NASDAQ: 26,830.96, -23.02 (-0.09%)
S&P 500: 7,584.31, +30.63 (+0.41%)
NYSE Composite: 23,572.77, +296.28 (+1.27%)

Wall Street Scary Plunge Nothing to Concern Traders; Gold, Silver Rebound; Bitcoin At Lowest Level Since October 2024

2026-06-04T14:05:52.519-04:00

Is this the beginning of the end for bitcoin, and, by extension, the entire crypto universe?

The grandaddy of so-called crypto-currencies dropped below $62,000, a level not seen since October 2024, when it was on its way to an all-time high above $124,000. That's a 50% loss since October, 2025, and it is scaring off would-be speculators who still, somehow, imagine bitcoin as the ultimate alternative to fiat currencies.

Put up or shut up time has come for the digital vaporware floating around the ether. Bitcoin has not gained the kind of mass adoption for which ardent admirers had expected. Instead, it's been nothing more than a fantasy, as the cyrpto universe hasn't managed to assert bitcoin as a viable means of exchange, a store of value, or, for that matter, anything other than a token trinket in a world awash with speculative bubbles.

Further drops in the "value" of a single bitcoin should be expected, unless, like just about everything else in this cockeyed financial system, insider big money wishes to keep it propped up and seemingly viable. Those who believe bitcoin, now 17 years old, is just a reincarnation of tulip mania, consider the real value of a currency that has no intrinsic value and cannot be seen nor touched to be somewhere in the vicinity of zero. They may soon have a case in point.

Wednesday's Wall Street slaughter wasn't nearly as bad as it looked. Of the big three indices, only the Dow (-1.21%) was down by more than one percent. The NASDAQ and S&P were down, 0.89 and 0.74, respectively. In other words, they're about where they were a week ago, suggesting that there was no panic over war re-emerging in the Middle East or the U.S. economy suddenly sliding into recession. In fact, just about nobody on or near Wall Street believes a recession is anywhere to be seen in the next six to 12 months. The biggest concern is inflation, and, seriously, nobody is sweating that very much at all.

Heading into Thursday's session, Dow futures are up sharply, +468, while NASDAQ futures are markedly lower, -310, whilc ethe S&P occupies the middle ground, down about 22 points. Brent crude is dropping, down to $94.74 per barrel, while WTI is lower, at $92.61. Both had spiked a bit higher on Wednesday, but traders saw that the escalation in the Middle East is likely to be contained and that any talk of an oil shortage is being dismissed as bad rumor, as both Iran and the U.S. are quietly allowing a limited flow of oil to transit through the Strait of Hormuz, for now, in a display of inside baseball, a la politics trumping militarism.

Gold and silver are rebounding after their regular mid-week spanking. Gold is pricing at $4,507, silver, $74.79, on the spot market.

Initial unemployment claims came in at 225,000 this morning, the highest in three months, but still in a range of complacency. People will get excited if the numbers begin to pop over 250,000 and especially if they top 300,000 consistently. That would signal a problem for the Fed, which would want to stimulate, though they couldn’t, because inflation is still running hot, though that is not the situation today. Tomorrow's May Non-farm Payroll report may offer more clarity on the employment situation.

All's well. People do take profits.

At the Close, Wednesday, June 3, 2026:
Dow: 50,687.07, -620.72 (-1.21%)
NASDAQ: 26,853.98, -239.92 (-0.89%)
S&P 500: 7,553.68, -56.10 (-0.74%)
NYSE Composite: 23,276.49, -204.44 (-0.87%)

Stocks Continue Gains Despite Mideast Tensions; Gold, Silver Remain Underinvested, Rangebound; Bitcoin Headed to Crypto Hell

2026-06-03T12:36:22.049-04:00

A number of items that could lead stock trades on Wednesday include:

ADP reporting 122,000 jobs were added in May, topping expectations by 2,000, resulting in the largest monthly jobs gain since January 2025.
President Trump rolling out new tariffs on 60 trading partners, citing forced labor as the root cause.
Escalation in the Middle East, with Iran retaliating against U.S. assaults overnight, striking American bases in Gulf countries and hitting the airport in Kuwait, causing multiple casualties.

The ADP report comes on the heels of Tuesday's JOLTS report from the BLS:

The number of job openings increased to 7.6 million in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations decreased to 5.1 million and 5.0 million, respectively. Within separations, both quits (3.0 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.

As has been the case since liberation day and its semi-reversal last April, tariffs don't seem to be having any negative affect on stocks, though some of the additional costs have been adding to inflationary pressures. Nobody in any official capacity seems to mind, at the White House, Capitol Hill, or at the Fed. Americans just are supposed ot suck it up and keep working because the economy is so robust. There's almost no mention of inflation in the mainstream media on a regular basis as it's become part of the routine. Americans should just accept that the prices of everything will fluctuate and eventually move higher. That's the deal.

Tensions with Iran and the Middle East scene as a whole are cut from the same cloth, though they get more media coverage. Overall, however, the situation continues to ebb and flow with the White House and State Department continuing to insist that a peace deal with the Persian nation is at hand. That kind of "imminent" talk has been bandied about for the past month. Always, it has come to be meaningless and the warring is likely to persist through the summer. Though the president keeps insisting he wants the war to end, he's said the same about Ukraine. Both conflicts match the construct of "forever wars", of which the American public has grown weary. The MIC, however, is happily riding war profits (which used to be a crime).

With U.S. markets opening within minutes, stock futures are mixed, with the Dow down 200, the S&P down 16 points, and the NASDAQ up 18 points. WTI crude oil futures are slightly elevated, reaching upwards of $95/barrel. Gold and silver are both down, but remain within recent ranges.

There is absolutely nothing to worry about from an investment perspective. Stocks are in a kind of sweet spot that has rarely been seen before. 55,000 on the Dow this year is not out of the question, as it would be less than a 10% gain from current levels. The NASDAQ and S&P should also continue making records. There's an incredible amount of support by current shareholders and momentum chasers.

Bitcoin, down more than $15,000 the past month, appears to be headed for the asset wood chipper.

At the Close, Tuesday, June 2, 2026:
Dow: 51,307.79, +228.91 (+0.45%)
NASDAQ: 27,093.90, +7.09 (+0.03%)
S&P 500: 7,609.78, +9.82 (+0.13%)
NYSE Composite: 23,480.92, +145.77 (+0.62%)

Stocks Continue Upward on Strong Momentum. Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Victoria's Secret Each Up More then 30% Pre-Market

2026-06-02T09:06:06.436-04:00

The first trading session of June started out just the way most other sessions on the stock market have this year, with an upside move that left the major indices at all-time closing highs. The momentum that has carried the stocks for months - AI, war, Donald Trump tweets - all added to the festivities, but, in the end, the gains were insignificant. Eventually, as with all bubble rallies - and this being the biggest of all - there will come a top. It could be today, tomorrow, or any day in the future.

Current indications are that stocks have not reached the apex point. The Shiller PE (CAPE) added another 0.12, closing the day at 42.78, inching ever closer to the all-time high of 44.19 (Dec. 1999). One would be well-served to keep a close eye on the Shiller PE, as it is nearly a certainty that the current rally in stocks will send it to the ultimate all-time record. Figuring somewhere around a range 47-50 on this measure would call for the top above 8,000 on the S&P, with the possibility of a slight pullback before galloping into the stock market stratosphere. It is simply too easy to buy, take gains, and reinvest without any pretense of risk or valuation. The entire market is hyped with momentum and that momentum is not about to slow down. Not before the Shiller PE reaches a fresh all-time high should anybody be considering selling and staying out of the market. Selling and re-investing profits is absolutely the trade today, and likely for months ahead.

after the close Monday, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) reported first quarter earnings, skyrocketing 30% on the company's biggest earnings beat since 2018. This kind of bounce higher has been de rigeur for many tech and tech-related stocks. Gains of 10% or more on earnings announcements have drive stocks to incredible heights. One most recent was Dell, which soared more han 100 points - from 318 to 321 - on Friday of last week (May 29). Nothing short of an outright doubling (100% gain) in one day is surprising in this environment.

Tuesday before the open, a few more companies reported: Victoria's Secret (VSCO) - shares up 40% on blowout quarter Signet Jewelers (SIG) - higher Q1 profit than estimated, company raises outlook, stock up 7% pre-market Donaldson Filtrations Systems (DCI) - record sales, raises forecast, shares ahead by 2% Dollar General (DG) - earnings beat, raises forecat, shares up 5%

From the looks of just these few reports, it would appear that the good times are not limited to only the tech sector, though reinvested money from profitable trades in that sector may be spilling over into other parts of the market, in particular, consumer goods, as illustrated by Victoria's Secret, Signet Jewelers, and Dollar General just today.

While the idea that shoppers are looking for food bargains might scare off some potential trades, the counterweight is supplied by the other two stocks, hawking lingerie and bling. From that perspective, the money spigot is wide open (thanks largely to a $2 trillion budget deficit in the government's 2026 fiscal year. More hits from the ever-ready-to-spend U.S. congress are sure to keep coming.

Never mind that there are two wars underway. In fact, the conflicts in Ukraine and the Mideast align rightly with the welfare/warfare national economy firing on all cylinders.

The party continues, even in gold and silver, which are both sporting gains of one percent or more this morning. Futures are pointing in terms of opposite direction, however, with Dow futures off 200 points, NASDAQ futures down 33, and S&P futures down 14 points. After Monday's high of $94, WTI crude futures are back down to bouncing around $91. Nobody is willing to panic at this point, even though much of the global oil infrastructure has been severely damaged and flows out of the Persian Gulf have slowed to a crawl.

All the same, it seems, except for bitcoin, which is getting slaughtered, down below $70,000 right after Strategy CEO Michael Saylor sold a load of the cyrpto "asset."

At the Close, Monday, June 1, 2026:
Dow: 51,078.88, +46.42 (+0.09%)
NASDAQ: 27,086.81, +114.19 (+0.42%)
S&P 500: 7,599.96, +19.90 (+0.26%)
NYSE Composite: 23,335.16, +42.99 (+0.18%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Iran-U.S. Stalemate Has Brought Oil and Gas Prices Down Though Future Remains Uncertain; Gold, Silver Stuck in Ranges; Employment Numbers Out Friday

2026-05-31T12:26:27.768-04:00

As has been the case for weeks, the White House continues to tease peace negotiations with Iran, without any tangible results. The administration continues to reject Iran's various responses and demands with impunity. One would almost believe that the U.S. simply doesn't want to make a deal or come to any kind of semi-permanent structural agreement with Iran, the U.S. faction always backpedaling to cries of "Iran can't have a nuclear weapon!"

Not wishing to be swayed by U.S. demands, the Iranians continue to harp on about sovereignty, rights, and obligations to their people concerning enrichment of nuclear material which they do not desire to relinquish. That appears to be the main sticking point, neither side seemingly incapable of making concessions on the issue.

So, that's the way it's likely to stay, neither side giving in; the Iranians having a degree of control over what passes through the Strait of Hormuz and the Americans having some control over what continues through the Gulf of Oman and into the Indian Ocean via their blockade. Both sides appear content with that arrangement, for now.

The standoff could extend much further into the future than most analysts believe. It is n't hard to imagine the U.S. and Iran remaining in a long-lasting feud stretching past the midterms and into 2027. From a historical perspective, that is exactly what should happen. There was a war, however short and brutal, that is merely suspended by a tenuous ceasefire. Both sides continue to take potshots and random attacks, falling short of anything that would trigger a resumption of full military action. The U.S. can't get its navy close enough to Iran's shoreline to affect any kind of military retreat and Iran has essentially no navy or air force by which to wage an oceanic confrontation. The U.S. lacks the willingness to attempt a ground invasion and has no place safe enough to assemble the necessary force in advance of an invasion, besides it being a suicide mission.

That's the nutshell version. There's certainly more going on behind the scenes that neither side is willing to disclose publicly, but, considering the logistical implications, countries highly dependent on imported oil from the Middle East will find themselves short-shrifted and facing rationing and shutdowns of industry. The U.S. doesn't care. They have all the oil and energy resources they need. Iran does as well. Nothing in the calculus of the global energy infrastructure is going to change the situation in any reasonable manner.

There will be crisis management in most countries at some level, but, there's still enough oil coming from other places to compensate. The U.S. is more than willing to sell oil to anybody, even China, for instance, and they've managed ot keep prices in the U.S. at somewhat manageable, though high, levels.

Two things for certain about the end game: Inflation and slower productivity, perhaps recession in many countries all within the same time frame. Play on.

Stocks

Another banner week for stocks sent the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P to record levels.

There's so much loose money afloat that any thoughts of shorting the market or seeking a dip by which to buy in seem like pure pie-in-the-sky pipe dreams. Profitable trades are turned right back into more speculation and momentum-building. With gold and silver stalled at fairly high levels and treasuries becoming an orphan to the system, stocks are actually a reasonable place to invest, if one can hold one's nose long enough to discourage thoughts about valuations and fundamentals.

It's a party so long as the government continues its runaway deficit spending and the Fed doesn't push back hard against rising levels of inflation. The Shiller PE ended the week at 42.66, the highest level since April, 2000, and the second-highest on record. Anybody who pays the slightest bit of attention to this measure can clearly understand the mechanism by which stock markets are functioning, highly-inflated valuations serving a momentum trade for the ages. All indications are pointing to higher stock prices amid an inflationary environment that is setting people's hair on fire, in grocery stores, gas stations, and just about everywhere else.

It's not going to stop until it does. The trick is to get out somewhere near the top because history teaches that there will undoubtably be a top, followed by a massive unwinding. Bear with it.

The week ahead brings more stragglers reporting first quarter 2026 results. The focus will be mostly on Dollar General on Tuesday, and Macy's on Wednesday. Lululemon will get some play from the trendy workout apparel crowd Thursday.

Monday: (before open) SAIC (SAIC); (after close) Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Credo (CRDO)

Tuesday: (before open) Victoria's Secret (VSCO), Signet Jewelers (SIG), Donaldson Filtrations Sstems (DCI), Dollar General (DG); (after close) PicPay (PICS), PetMeds (PETS), Gitlab (GTLB), Paloalto Netowrks (PANW), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Sportsman's Warehouse (SPWH)

Wednesday: (before open) Medtronic (MDT), Macy's (M), Ollie's ((OLLI), THOR (THO); (after close) Five Below (FIVE), Petco (WOOF), Broadcom (AVGO), Crowdstrike (CRWD)

Thursday: (before open) Brown Forman (BF.B), Ciena (CIEN), Toro (TTC); (after close) Lululemon (LULU), Docusign (DOCU)

Friday: (before open) ABM (AMM)

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View. Highlights include Tuesday's JOLTS (job openings), ADP's Private Employer Report for May on Wednesday, Challenger Job Cuts and the Fed Balance Sheet on Thursday, and the May Non-Farm Payroll release prior to the market opening Friday. Non-farm payrolls for May 2026 are expected to increase modestly, with consensus estimates around +60,000 jobs and the unemployment rate likely remaining near 4.4%, with the analyst range between zero and +95,000.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
04/24/2026	3.69	3.72	3.71	3.69	3.69	3.71	3.67
05/01/2026	3.71	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.76	3.71	3.73
05/08/2026	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.69	3.75	3.74	3.75
05/15/2026	3.71	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.76	3.77	3.82
05/22/2026	3.72	3.69	3.69	3.68	3.78	3.79	3.86
05/29/2026	3.72	3.71	3.71	3.69	3.78	3.78	3.79

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
04/24/2026	3.78	3.80	3.92	4.10	4.31	4.88	4.91
05/01/2026	3.88	3.91	4.02	4.20	4.39	4.96	4.97
05/08/2026	3.90	3.92	4.02	4.19	4.38	4.93	4.95
05/15/2026	4.09	4.14	4.26	4.43	4.59	5.14	5.12
05/22/2026	4.13	4.18	4.27	4.41	4.56	5.06	5.07
05/29/2026	3.98	4.06	4.13	4.27	4.45	4.98	4.99

Notes and bonds were bought last week, bringing down yields while spreads remained well within current ranges. 2s-10s widened slightly to +47. The 30-day-30-year full spectrum spread narrowed to +127. These reflect very manageable conditions for banking interests, though hardly of a nature suggesting rapid expansion of lending. Spreads remain a bit tight, though they are a vast improvement from the post-Covid era, 2021-23.

The next FOMC meeting being the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, June 16-17, will be supplied with enough employment, wage, and inflation data (CPI, PPI) to formulate a rational policy which would likely feature the beginning of a hiking expedition to tamp down the inflation genie, which has surely escaped from the bottle. Warsh is keenly aware of this and will suffer the president's displeasure if he so chooses to go the "Volker" route. President Trump would prefer he stand down and allow inflation to take off. The stock market gains and inflated figures across the government data sets make him look good.

Something is going to go snap unless Warsh does the right thing and ignores the politics, a tall order.

Spreads:

Oil/Gas

Thanks to the ongoing White House narrative of "nearing a deal" in the Iran conflict and no notable supply disruptions, WTI Crude Oil finished the week in New York at $87.76, down sharply from last Friday’s New York closing price of $97.00, which seems, on the surface, insanity, but is actually somewhat logical.

Nearly 25% of daily output is being cut off at the Strait of Hormuz and in the Indian Ocean. Oil prices on the global setting have risen from the 60s to the 90s, a gain of somewhere in the range of 33%. It's just makes sense to frame the disruption in this manner, as opposed to panic pricing in the $120-150 range. It's holding for now because traders do not want to get caught with too large a position either short or long as the futures market has been bounced around like a tennis ball at Wimbledon the past few months.

While the price of WTI crude has kept in a range from $90-$110 recently, this week's move below that level indicates that markets and traders are satisfied that any crisis has been averted and there's still enough - despite reports of dwindling stockpiles - to remain somewhat stable, for now. There is no certainty regarding a final outcome, so it's just simply day-trading, complete with wrinkles and nuances.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.50 last week and $4.29 this week, a significant change.

Somehow, the powers that be have managed to keep prices at the pump out of crisis range. Americans, having been through gas price hikes in the recent past, know how to adjust, and, with summer driving season dead ahead, expect more "close to home" vacations this year and maybe even some mention of the loathsome "stay-cations" which require no travel and no gas, spending that spare change on better eats and home-grown fun. Might not be so bad.

Prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.02 (-0.08)
Washington: $5.72 (-0.06)
Oklahoma (lowest): $3.77 (-0.20)
Mississippi: $3.84 (-0.11)
Florida: $4.03 (-0.34)
Illinois: $4.74 (+0.13)
Pennsylvania: $4.47 (-0.15)
New York: $4.50 (-0.07)
Maryland: $4.16 (-0.33)
Michigan: $4.26 (-0.28)
Texas: $4.77 (-0.25)
Georgia: $3.80 (-0.16)

On Sunday, May 24th, there are fourteen (14) states with average prices below $4.00, a large move from just five last week, with 34 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.63) and Alaska ($5.20), four above $5 (California, Nevada, Washington, Oregon), and one above $6 (California). The Southeast has become the lowest region overall over the past two weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging well below $4.00 in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi.

Bitcoin

This week: $73,835.71
Last week: $76,800.00
2 weeks ago: $78,015.76
6 months ago: $85,807.97
One year ago: $104,494.50
Five years ago: $35,525.93

Look at those numbers. Bitcoin as an investment is just plain horrible. There seems to be no reason whatsoever to hold this vaporous "asset" (using the term very, very loosely in this instance) for any longer than it takes ot dispose of it.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 60.30; last week: 59.73

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 5/1: $4,625.60
Gold price 5/8: $4,723.70
Gold price 5/15: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/22: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/29: $4,569.90

Silver price 5/1: $75.84
Silver price 5/8: $80.83
Silver price 5/15: $76.29
Silver price 5/22: $75.92
Silver price 5/29: $75.58

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 5/1: $4,612.97
Gold 5/8: $4,714.90
Gold 5/15: $4,539.72
Gold 5/22: $4,508.74
Gold 5/29: $4,538.94

Silver 5/1: $75.34
Silver 5/8: $80.35
Silver 5/15: $75.94
Silver: 5/22: $75.48
Silver 5/29: $75.27

Gold and silver spent a third straight week rotating around a range of recent lows, gold at $4,500, with silver at $75, strangely suspicious prices suggesting these are key levels for derivative traders in futures markets wishing to contain prices of currencies alternative to the U.S. dollar.

While it is perfectly not all right to suppress competition, that's what the COMEX and LBMA does, and has done for the past 50-odd years, and there's little reason to believe they won't continue the practice, pretending that regional markets - with regional pricing mechanisms - in places like Shanghai, St. Petersburg, Dubai, and Singapore don't exist.

Those markets do indeed exist, though for casual buyers and stackers in the Western world, they are largely unreachable, and, for all practical purposes, useless. It would make little sense to transport small amounts of precious metals to markets in search of better prices unless those prices were significantly higher. A five dollar deviation in the price of silver or $100 in gold is not incentive enough to move physical metal.

Given that gold and silver have recently reached levels only dreamt about in years past, taking some profits at this point might not be such a bad idea, but only if one has sufficient metal in storage at the end of the day, a firm rationale for re-investment of any returns and a tax strategy. For those playing by the rules, such action would incur a high capital gains tax burden - a 28% hit in most cases - since gold and silver are treated as collectibles by the IRS.

That particular kind of IRS rule-making garbage is reason enough to hold onto gold and silver until either the IRS disappears or the U.S. government loses the ability to track and control money flows. Don't hold your breath waiting. Since gold and silver are thus encumbered by tyrannical government edicts, the obvious choice is to keep those assets close at hand and quietly pass them on to the next generation or use them as currency in surreptitious manners. Who knows, maybe your favorite plumber, electrician, gardener, or mechanic would like to add a little to his or her stack.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	75.00	100.00	87.03	86.00
1 oz silver bar:	75.00	122.01	91.23	81.92
1 oz gold coin:	4587.64	4887.05	4760.76	4760.05
1 oz gold bar:	4670.25	4785.40	4740.98	4739.95

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) dipped modestly, to $86.55, a loss of 90 cents from the May 24 price of $87.45 per troy ounce, well within the recent range.

WEEKEND WRAP

Election politicking may actually be beneficial to the American people. With the Republicans in power, they have a vested interest in keeping inflation somewhat under control, so they're hell-bent on doing whatever it takes to keep inflation down until November. After that, most senators and house representatives will care less, likely much less. Whether they are able to thread the needle between high prices and a stalled economy is the big question. So far, they seem to be succeeding.

At the Close, Friday, May 29, 2026:
Dow: 51,032.46, +363.49 (+0.72%)
NASDAQ: 26,972.62, +55.15 (+0.20%)
S&P 500: 7,580.06, +16.43 (+0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 23,292.17, -10.10 (-0.04%)

For the Week:
Dow: +452.76 (+0.90%)
NASDAQ: +628.65 (+2.39%)
S&P 500: +106.59 (+1.43%)
NYSE Composite: +66.42 (+0.29%)
Dow Transports: +642.90 (+3.10%)

Dow, S&P, NASDAQ All Close at Record Highs Thursday; Buffett's Buy of Macy's Turning Heads; Dell Reports Blowout Quarter, Sends Stock Soaring

2026-05-29T10:00:39.400-04:00

With just one more trading day in the week and the month, the advantage of owning equities appears unshakable.

For the week through Thursday's close, the Dow has added 80 points but is also at a record high. The NASDAQ is up 573 points (2.18%) in just three sessions, and the S&P 500 is ahead by 90 points (1.21%). All in all, index funds continue to look like the proverbial cat's meow, even with conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and high inflation in the U.S.

As of Thursday's close the Shiller PE stands at 42.55, just more then 1.5 points from the all-time high of 44.19, set back in December 1999. Without taking into account the nuances of computing the Shiller PE (aka CAPE) and its 10-year earnings structure, the S&P would have to gain another 250-300 points to break the record, or, a record high close to 8,000 on the 500-stock index. Considering the degree to which stocks are currently in favor, that doesn't seem too far-fetched, despite the absolute bubbliest overview. A target of 8,000 on the S&P might be sometime between late July and early October, conveniently just in time for the midterms.

It was recently exposed that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway had taken about a 1% stake in the quintessential retail chain, Macy's (M), which also owns Bloomingdales and an impressive real estate portfolio estimated at around $3 billion. Buffett may have made the call on this himself, which adds to the intrigue.

On the surface, the Macy's purchase seems to be a pretty shrewd move. The fact alone that Buffett sees value will draw in more investors, pushing the stock higher. Buffett will no doubt continue buying in measured fashion or possibly tender a buyout offer and take the company private under the Berkshire Hathaway umbrella. With the current market cap just above $5 billion, Buffett could offer $10 billion or more without batting an eyelash. He has a war chest of nearly $400 billion on hand, so it wouldn't be a significant move. Macy's could be sold out with a share price of $40 or higher. It's a pretty safe bet, plus, there's the annual dividend of 77 cents per share and a PE ratio kicking around 9 or 10.

Retail has been whipsawed in recent years due to trends toward e-commerce and the lackluster reputation of many regional malls. Macy's owns a load of properties and they're undergoing a major restructuring, closing many of under-performing stores while adding new initiates to those kept open. Retail hasn't been announced dead and buried. It may be just hibernating through a tech winter. People still like the idea of hands-on shopping, especially for apparel, an area in which Macy's excels. There's a lot to like in Buffett's bold move. He and his company haven’t invested in a retailer in about 60 years. The timing and strategy seem elegant with a tinge of contrarianism.

After the close on Thursday, these companies announced first quarter results:
Costco (COST) - small EPS miss, same-store sales up 6.6%, stock down less than 1% pre-market
AutoDesk (ADSK) - beats on revenue, EPS, investors not impressed, shares down 7%
Gap Inc. (GAP) - big EPS miss sends shares down 15%
Dell (DELL) - blows away estimates, stock up 35% pre-open

A little deeper look at Dell's outrageous rise this morning reveals record revenue of $43.8 billion, up 88% year over year, record diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.24, up 282% year over year, and record non-GAAP diluted EPS of $4.86, up 214%, record first-quarter cash flow from operations of $4.1 billion. The company benefitted from a close association with President Trump and this week, the company was awarded a $9.7 billion Pentagon contract to provide a suite of software to the U.S. military.

While Dell's results reek of insider activity and self-dealing, there's nothing fake about banking enormous profits. There is likely to be some pullback following the initial euphoria from this blowout quarter, though the stock could rampage higher, given current momentum. One-day gains such as this are truly astonishing and aligned entirely with Trump's vision of a growing U.S. tech base. Whatever comes of it, this will be the headline going into the weekend, suggesting massive gains to close out the week and the month.

As the opening bell approaches, futures ar higher, though uneven. Dow futures are up 115 points, S&P futures gaining 6-10 points, while the NASDAQ lags, up only 20 points after its big run-up Thursday.

With President Trump nixing the latest peace offering from Iran, once again on the nuclear issue, the rhetoric doesn't change from the hope and fear that's been narrated from the White House for the past month. The situation in the Middle East remains in doubt, seemingly suitable to institutional investors. Who knew that uncertainty would drive markets higher?

Gven the chokehold Iran and the U.S. have created over the flow of Persian Gulf oil, it's astonishing to see WTI futures ranging lower, around $87 per barrel prior to the opening bell. Meanwhile, executives at Chevron and ExxonMobil are warning about extremely low inventory levels. The U.S. strategic reverses are being drained, gas prices reamin stubbornly high (national average $4.37). Something has to give, or, maybe not. The stalemate could continue for months given the vagueness of the ongoing peace/war process.

None of this has helped precious metals, with both gold and silver trading near recent lows; gold around $4,500 and silver in the $75 range. Stocks are moving higher and treasury yields have dipped below 4.50% on the 10-year and 5.00% on 30-year bonds.

The weekend and June dead ahead, end-of-month window dressing is on the menu to close out a solid week on Wall Street.

At the Close, Thursday, May 28, 2026:
Dow: 50,668.97, +24.69 (+0.05%)
NASDAQ: 26,917.47, +242.74 (+0.91%)
S&P 500: 7,563.63, +43.27 (+0.58%)
NYSE Composite: 23,302.26, +35.20 (+0.15%)

New Highs on Dow, S&P, NASDAQ; 1Q 2026 GDP Steady at 1.6%; Durable Goods Jump 7.9%; PCE Index Up 4.5%; Retailers Mostly Post Strong Earnings

2026-05-28T09:33:44.647-04:00

Stocks made another move slightly higher on Wednesday. Against a backdrop of rising inflation and renewed attacks by the U.S. against Iranian targets in the Gulf of Hormuz, the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ all closed at record highs.

The euphoria may be wearing a little bit thin as stock futures heading into Thursday's session were trending lower, though release of GDP and Capital Goods Orders sent futures higher after 8:30 am ET. Any losses in the indices are likely to be short-lived as the rally has not been negatively affected by either geo-politics or domestic data.

Thursday morning brings a handful of useful data, led by the monthly PCE Price Index, second estimate of first quarter GDP and Durable Goods orders. Labor gets numbers from the weekly jobless claims.

Real GDP was unchanged from the initial estimate of 1.6%, and, according to the BEA:

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.5 percent in the first quarter, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 4.5 percent, the same as previously estimated, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 4.4 percent, revised up 0.1 percentage point.

Durable Goods Orders were an out--of-the-park hit:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up two consecutive months, increased $25.5 billion or 7.9 percent to $346.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 1.3 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 8.1 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $23.1 billion or 21.5 percent to $130.9 billion.

Weekly initial and continuing unemployment claims were static, with the latest initial claims figure at 215,000, well within the current range.

First quarter earnings continue to trickle forward. After the close Wednesday, these companies reported:
Salesforce (CRM) - earnings beat, $3.88 adjusted vs. $3.12 expected, dull forecast, shares down less than 1%
HP (HPQ) - EPS beat, Dell merger dead, shares slip 2% pre-market
Marvell (MRVL) - earnings in-line, revenue up, forecast boldly positive, shares drop 3%

On Thursday, before the open,
Hormel Foods (HRL) - earnings beat, forecast confirmed, stock jumps 4-5% pre-open
Kohl's (KSS) - narrower than expected loss send shares soaring 18%
Best Buy (BBY) - Solid top and bottom line beats, shares up 9-10%
Burlington (BURL) - Meets expectations, forecast weak, stock down 10%
Dollar Tree (DLTR) - Strong 1Q translates into 18% gain pre-market

Wall Street, largely giddy over the morning's data drops and corporate earnings, continues to pile into stocks willy-nilly. a host of retail investors and skeptics continue moaning about high valuations, but the real money isn't holding back.

Heading toward Thursday’s open, futures have flattened out, gold and silver are lower, oil steady at around $90-91 and bitcoin continuing to drop, below $73,000 earlier this morning.

With institutions calling, "everybody into the pool; the water's fine," is this time, with stocks at record highs, the right time to take the leap? The right time was six months to a year or two ago, but retail is always the last to know and the last to move. When retail, always late to sense the obvious, does finally relent and join the party, then will be the correct time to take profits.

Until then, onward and upward.

At the Close, Wednesday, May 27, 2026:
Dow: 50,644.28, +182.60 (+0.36%)
NASDAQ: 26,674.73, +18.55 (+0.07%)
S&P 500: 7,520.36, +1.24 (+0.02%)
NYSE Composite: 23,267.07, -28.43 (-0.12%)

Back-and-Forth With Iran Continues as NASDAQ, S&P Make Records; Oil Tumbles; Gold, Silver Lower; Dick's Down On Earnings Miss

2026-05-27T09:41:45.254-04:00

After a long weekend of back-and-forth, peace or war rhetoric with Iran, the U.S. decided to take "defensive" action by bombing the port of Bandar Abbas in southern Iran, near the Straight of Hormuz around midnight Monday.

President Trump had already warned Iran that the alternative to accepting a peace plan would foment more destruction. The president also insisted upon the U.S. taking control of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium, scuttling the hopeful deal that has been in negotiation for the better part of three weeks.

The heinous tactic of the U.S. - promise, promise, negotiate, escalate - has grown old. The U.S. citizenry has caught onto the rogue, barbaric teasing and attacking, calling the other side out for violations of the ceasefire and negotiating in bad faith. Somehow, the mainstream U.S. press continues to overlook the obvious.

Whether it be war of peace, Wall Street appears to be satisfied with either condition. While the Dow on Tuesday dropped back from its record high, the NASDAQ and S&P each ended the session at record closing levels. The Shiller PE rose to 42.32, continuing a ramp-up that has risen relentlessly since January of 2023.

Some first quarter company results were announced Wednesday morning prior to the open:
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) - EPS of 1.47 boost stock 7%
Bath & Body Works (BBWI) - Sales topped estimates, stock up 11% pre-market.
Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) - Foot Locker acquisition turns positive, but company short on earnings, shares down 2%

After the close Wednesday, Salesforce (CRM), HP (HPQ), and Marvell (MRVL) report. On Thursday, before the open, Hormel Foods (HRL), Kohl's (KSS), Best Buy (BBY), and Burlington (BURL) highlight the earnings parade.

Stocks are looking for a positive start Wednesday morning. Dow futures are up 75 points; NASDAQ futures are adding 205; and S&P futures are up 19 a half hour before the bell. Precious metals are taking their usual mid-week beating with gold at $4,430 and silver at $74.36.

WTI crude oil had risen above $94 on Tuesday, but is currently leveling off just above $88.

Give peace a chance?

At the Close, Tuesday, May 26, 2026:
Dow: 50,461.68, -118.02 (-0.23%)
NASDAQ: 26,656.18, +312.21 (+1.19%)
S&P 500: 7,519.12, +45.65 (+0.61%)
NYSE Composite: 23,295.50, +69.75 (+0.30%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Iran 'Deal' Remains In Focus at White House; Gas Prices Stabilize; Four-Day Trading Week Upcoming; Stocks Gain, Oil Range-Bound

2026-05-24T12:03:33.118-04:00

With everything on hold over the Memorial Day weekend according to the latest tweets, truths, and messaging from the White House, a positive vibe seems to be the dominant expression, with a "solution" being suggested by politicians and the media.

A subtle shift is taking place, one in which "Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon" is being replaced with "we must open the Strait of Hormuz." The president is on his back foot in terms of negotiating power, and the very real possibility that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen with only a commitment from Iran that they will continue to "negotiate" over the nuclear issue.

Such an outcome would give the president two things he sorely needs: a near-term win, lowering the price of oil and gas; and, time to set the agenda through the midterms, with the possibility of resuming hostilities after the elections.

This agenda would likely be positive for stocks and fixed income, considering that the government might find it within its best interests to lower the price of gas at the pump (buy votes) and have Trump and the Republicans appear as heroes and deal-makers. While one can't make this stuff up, politicians believe they can and will likely try.

Good luck.

Stocks

The week just past was solidly positive for industrials and only marginally appealing to tech. The Dow was up well more than double that of the S&P in percentage terms, and held a five-fold edge over the NASDAQ. The Dow made all-time closing highs on Thursday and again on Friday, with the other indices within spitting distance of their record highs.

Bubble markets being what the name implies, there's little doubt as to the direction of all stocks. The piling on and crowding of trades is nearing an "all in" condition, which is the normal set-up for a rapid correction, though that moment still seems far away. Momentum and political ties will take stocks higher unless something disruptive and unexpected - a black swan - occurs. With the government's near-complete control of the media narrative, even nuking New York City would probably be spun as a positive development, sending stocks even higher. There's no fighting it. Nobody wants protections. Puts are pretty cheap because they usually end up at zero come maturity.

The week ahead offers only a few stragglers reporting first quarter 2026 results with the focus on retail:

Tuesday: (before open) Elbit Systems (ESLT), AutoZone (AZO), Champion Homes (SKY); (after close) SilverCorp Metals (SVM), Box (BOX)

Wednesday: (before open) Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Bat & Body Works (BBWI), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS); (after close) Salesforce (CRM), HP (HPQ), Marvell (MRVL)

Thursday: (before open) Hormel Foods (HRL), Kohl's (KSS), Best Buy (BBY), Burlington (BURL); (after close) Costco (COST), AutoDesk (ADSK), Gap Inc. (GAP), Dell (DELL)

Friday: (before open) BitFuFu (FUFU), Knot Offshore (KNOP)

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View. Here are a few relevant data drops for the four-day week ahead:

Tuesday brings the back-dated S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index, Wednesday has the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Johnson Redbook Index, and the ADP weekly Employment numbers. Inflation is on review Thursday with the monthly PCE Price Index and employment gets numbers from the weekly jobless claims. Thursday will be notable for the second estimate of first quarter GDP and Durable Goods orders. Friday provides the Goods Trade Balance, and Retail and Wholesale Inventories.

The outlook for weeks and months ahead are cloudy, as the political levers being pulled relate significantly to inflation, employment, and making new all-time highs in stocks. Every move higher in stocks has to be questioned from a fundamental standpoint. The U.S. cannot continue to price stocks in bubble-land. Valuations are material; prices, ephemeral.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
04/17/2026	3.69	3.70	3.73	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.64
04/24/2026	3.69	3.72	3.71	3.69	3.69	3.71	3.67
05/01/2026	3.71	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.76	3.71	3.73
05/08/2026	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.69	3.75	3.74	3.75
05/15/2026	3.71	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.76	3.77	3.82
05/22/2026	3.72	3.69	3.69	3.68	3.78	3.79	3.86

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
04/17/2026	3.71	3.72	3.84	4.04	4.26	4.85	4.88
04/24/2026	3.78	3.80	3.92	4.10	4.31	4.88	4.91
05/01/2026	3.88	3.91	4.02	4.20	4.39	4.96	4.97
05/08/2026	3.90	3.92	4.02	4.19	4.38	4.93	4.95
05/15/2026	4.09	4.14	4.26	4.43	4.59	5.14	5.12
05/22/2026	4.13	4.18	4.27	4.41	4.56	5.06	5.07

Yields fell overall this week for maturities longer than five years, though not substantially. The 30-year bond yield has held over five percent for two weeks running. While interest rates are assumed to have something to do with the Middle East conflict, they have more to do with general U.S. monetary policy, which is still considered to be very loose, the government continuing to borrow and raise the overall debt to nearly $40 trillion.

It doesn't go unnoticed that U.S. debt to GDP is 137% while Russia's is 14%. After a while - a condition currently underway - lenders to the U.S. are demanding higher returns and the reserve status of the dollar is in severe decline. The dollar index has wavered between 96 and 101 for the past year, but it's down substantially since January, 2025, just prior to Trump's inauguration, of 110.

Erosion of confidence in a reserve currency is not something that happens overnight unless it is caused by government dictate or devaluation. The long term trend remains to the downside as the reality of inflation ramps up. Another financial crisis could take the DXY to below 70, at which point the U.S. goose may be fully cooked. It's somewhat heartening that the free-spending U.S. government has managed other keep some buyers of its debt happy, but the costs are enormous. Interest on the debt is likely to become the largest expenditure - it's already #3 or #4, behind medicare/medicaid, social security, and the military, depending on the upcoming 2027 budget, which is soon to be negotiated.

While the president may wish for lower interest rates, wishing would be the appropriate term, as there is little to appetite at the Fed - even with the changing of the guar from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh - because inflation numbers continue to rise. Ending the Iran conflict would be a short-term patch, as the latest CPI and PPI inflation figures were tied, in large part, to oil and gasoline. Bringing down those prices are high on the president's agenda and could influence upcoming FOMC policy.

For now, however, 4.50% on the 10-year note and 5.00% on the 30-year bond are appearing as bottoms. The White House, stuck between surrender of principles in the Middle East and rampaging inflation at home, will likely make the political decision to back down on demands against Iran and get the gas at the pump price down. Midterms are less than six months away and a chorus of Republicans up for re-election are piping their tune directly into President Trump's ear.

Spreads took a bit of a breather from the high end, with 2s-10s dropping to +43 and the 30-days-30-years full spectrum dropping six basis points to +135, though the potential for spreads to run hotter is, at the same time, beneficial to banking interests, but harmful to the currency, as yield gains would likely occur at the long end of the curve under current and expected conditions.

Spreads:

Oil/Gas

Thanks to the ongoing White House narrative of "nearing a deal" in the Iran conflict, WTI Crude Oil finished the week in New York at $97.00, 101.16, down from last Friday’s New York closing price of $101.16, though remaining in the recent range of $90-110. Supposedly, resumption of regular flows from the Persian Gulf would clip the price per barrel by $15-20, perhaps more, depending on the strength of commitment on both sides of the conflict to adhere to general outlines.

Over the Memorial Day weekend, word continues to emanate from Trump Palace that negotiations with Iran are proceeding and nearing a conclusion, a draft proposal acceptable to not just Iran and the U.S., but to other countries in the region. This same game continues to play out, with hopes dashed on a regular basis and the price of oil rising again. To Trump's credit, he's kept the price in a range that isn't too damaging to U.S. consumers.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.50 last week and $4.50 this week, no change.

Americans, having been through gas hikes and energy crises before, are adjusting and conserving wherever possible, though further increases in food and energy prices may be too much too bear and the politicians are acutely aware of that.

Prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.10 (-0.03)
Washington: $5.76 (+0.00)
Oklahoma: $3.97 (+0.02)
Mississippi (lowest): $3.95 (-0.01)
Florida: $4.37 (+0.17)
Illinois: $4.61 (-0.01)
Pennsylvania: $4.62 (-0.05)
New York: $4.57 (-0.01)
Maryland: $4.49 (+0.04)
Michigan: $4.64 (-0.19)
Texas: $4.03 (+0.11)
Georgia: $3.96 (0.00)

On Sunday, May 24th, there are just five (5) states with average prices below $4.00 (Oklahoma, Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Georgia, same number as last week, with Indiana replacing Texas, 43 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.68) and Alaska ($5.32), four above $5 (California, Nevada, Washington, Oregon), and one above $6 (California). The Southeast has become the lowest region overall over the past week as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging right around $4.00 in places like Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi.

Bitcoin

This week: $76,800.00
Last week: $78,015.76
2 weeks ago: $80,800.68
6 months ago: $88,321.30
One year ago: $108,096.50
Five years ago: $34,592.16

Any purchase of bitcoin since mid-November, 2024 - a period of 18 months and counting - has resulted in a loss if still held today. This artificial currency is worth cow turds. Ask a car dealer if they'll take a bitcoin for a new Ford F-150 or a bank to use your bitcoin as a down payment on a house. The answer will be the same: convert it to U.S. dollars and you've got a deal.

Why bother, when just holding cash for the last 18 months would have saved money. Thanks to inflation, bitcoiners are losing purchasing power on a regular basis and that subtraction is gearing up to be even worse.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 59.73; last week: 59.75

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 4/24: $4,725.40
Gold price 5/1: $4,625.60
Gold price 5/8: $4,723.70
Gold price 5/15: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/22: $4,543.60

Silver price 4/24: $76.19
Silver price 5/1: $75.84
Silver price 5/8: $80.83
Silver price 5/15: $76.29
Silver price 5/22: $75.92

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 4/24: $4,709.27
Gold 5/1: $4,612.97
Gold 5/8: $4,714.90
Gold 5/15: $4,539.72
Gold 5/22: $4,508.74

Silver 4/24: $75.63
Silver 5/1: $75.34
Silver 5/8: $80.35
Silver 5/15: $75.94
Silver: 5/22: $75.48

Silver and gold finished out the week nearly unchanged, though both metals experienced considerable, range-bound volatility. Gold traded as high as $4,598 and as low as $4,453. Silver hit $78.88 and bottomed at $73.06. There are opposing forces tugging at precious metals. With interest rates on the rise, some investors might opt for the 4+ percent return on treasuries or corporate bonds. At the other end, inflation erodes purchasing power, making PMs an obvious choice for wealth protection. In addition to the usual strangulation tactics in COMEX futures, these forces are keeping PMs stuck in a range, for now.

Premiums are still at high levels for physical with bullion (bars), charging higher as opposed to specie (coins). The usual spread between bars and coins has shrunk considerably to a point at which they are nearly equal, around $200 per ounce. The spread on silver has regularly favored bars, premia now roughly higher by $4-5.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	76.77	105.00	85.46	84.00
1 oz silver bar:	79.00	112.50	90.61	89.72
1 oz gold coin:	4660.50	4775.96	4722.68	4727.61
1 oz gold bar:	4700.91	4755.50	4717.93	4710.36

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose modestly, to $87.45, a gain of 37 cents from the May 17 price of $87.08 per troy ounce, well within the recent range.

WEEKEND WRAP

Happy Memorial Day. Summer approaches post haste. Keep your friends close and your powder dry.

At the Close, Friday, May 22, 2026:
Dow: 50,579.70, +294.04 (+0.58%)
NASDAQ: 26,343.97, +50.87 (+0.19%)
S&P 500: 7,473.47, +27.75 (+0.37%)
NYSE Composite: 23,225.75, +98.07 (+0.42%)

For the Week:
Dow: +1053.53 (+2.13%)
NASDAQ: +118.82 (+0.45%)
S&P 500: +64.97 (+0.88%)
NYSE Composite: +436.32 (+1.87%)
Dow Transports: +633.23 (+3.15%)

Stocks Gain on Deal, No Deal Momentum; Friday Looking to Close Out Good Week to the Upside; Mentions of AI in Quarterly Reports Boosts Share Price

2026-05-22T11:20:58.317-04:00

No deal.

Oh, well, at least the Dow finished Thursday's session at a record closing high and Nvidia was down less than four points after disclosing first quarter 2026 results. Overall, a this was to be expected, with the totally fake media saying Iran and the U.S. were close to a final draft, which, for all intents and purposes, is an oxymoron. It's a draft, a framework. There's nothing final about it and that alone should have tipped off anybody who is fluent in the English language (about 8% of the U.S. population) that the whole thing was cooked up by the usual suspects on Wall Street and inside the Beltway.

Everybody else was fooled, again, and again and surely will be fooled the next time imminent peace or a resumption of the war is touted as imminent.

For the week, through Thursday’s close, the Dow is up 759 points, the NASDAQ has added only 68 points, and the S&P is up 37. Obviously, with a three-day weekend ahead, nobody wants to see losses on the Friday session, making Thursday evening an ideal time to announce that the Trump administration has agreed to award $1 billion to International Business Machines Corp. (BM) to build a foundry for producing quantum computing chips, part of a broad strategy to bolster US leadership in an emerging industry.

Yippie! The government investing in one of the Dow stocks. That is just so democratic and free market oriented that American taxpayers must be on board with this episode of Winning Big Business while the rest of America can just GFY. These continuing investments by the federal government into mega-corportions are nothing short of full-blown fascism, which, broadly defined, is the co-mingling of government with big business. Next thing you know, the Mango Mussolini will impose martial law, cancel elections (Why not? They don't work anyway.) and declare himself dictator for life.

Yes, you peons, GFY.

With that, less than an hour before Friday's opening bell, Dow futures are up 330 points, NASDAQ futures are ahead by 110, and S&P futures are higher by 28. Treasuries are taking a breather, with the 10-year yield down to 4.55% and the 30-year posing 5.08%. Regardless of the slight downturn in yields, gold and silver can't catch a bid, both down less than one percent Friday morning.

After the bell Thursday, these companies reported 1Q earnings:
Deckers (DECK) - Beat the Street, initially soared, pre-market down 1-2%
Workday (WDAY) - Tops earnings forecasts, cites AI as profit driver, stock up 6-7%
Ross Stores (ROST) - Solid quarter, shares up 4-5%
Lionsgate (LION) - Studio turns profitable, shares ahead 3-4%

Friday before the open:
BJ's Wholesale (BJ) - Hikes membership fees, profit up, shares down 3%
Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) - Appropriate stock symbol, earnings miss, mentions AI, stock up 7%

Everything is well positioned for another solid day of stock slinging. Happy Memorial Day, peons. GFY.

At the Close, Thursday, May 21, 2026:
Dow: 50,285.66, +276.31 (+0.55%)
NASDAQ: 26,293.10, +22.74 (+0.09%)
S&P 500: 7,445.72, +12.75 (+0.17%)
NYSE Composite: 23,127.69, +105.95 (+0.46%)

No Deal with Iran Sends Futures Lower, Oil Higher; Nvidia Fails to Impress; Walmart Slips, Ralph Lauren Soars; Bot Replacement Surgery Now a Concern

2026-05-21T10:21:20.972-04:00

Based on some dubious reportage that Iran and the U.S. were near finalizing a peace "deal" Wednesday, the Dow Industrials shot up past 50,000, the NASDAQ gained nearly 400 points, the S&P ended a three-day losing steak with a 79 point gain, and WTI crude futures fell to a low of $97.36 per barrel.

In other words, nothing new.

Insider Washington and Wall Street continue to play this kind of Kabuki theater to move markets hither and fro while nothing actually changes day-to-day. The repetitive pattern of hope for a more permanent peace beyond the current ceasefire and fear that one side or the other will restart hostilities have become so predictable that they are now ingrained into the toolkits of portfolio managers and shrewd speculators.

There's money to be made on both sides of a trade and somebody's surely making it, most likely the usual suspects inside the Beltway and the huge brokerages in lower Manhattan. That's not to say that the blatant media propaganda machine is somehow evil or guilty of bad behavior, rather, it's readily apparent that just about everybody is willing to play the game and go along for the ride.

What used to be a market based on honest facts, fundamental calculations, and practical reasoning has taken on the worst features of a roulette wheel or crap shoot. For those who have followed markets for longer than the past few months, it's become tawdry and tiresome. There is no specialized skill required to make profitable trades. It's become as easy as buying the latest tech buzz or hottest ETF and riding the wave to prosperity without so much as knowing of what a certain stock or fund does. Simply buying an index fund at any level is almost assured to return a healthy profit in a short period of time. Stocks cannot be allowed to decline very much under these conditions because denting the narrative is off limits. Everybody goes along to get along.

Outside of the knee-jerk reactions to the tariff imposition on "liberation day" and the start of the military conflict in the Mideast, there hasn't been any kind of correction on the major indices in more than three years, a condition that seems unlikely to change any time soon.

After the smashing close Wednesday, Nvidia released earnings for the latest quarter, and, despite the usual hype and positive returns, investors appear content to take profits and buy back in on any dips. After all, the stock just made a new all-time high last week and was up more than 20% year-to-date, so why hold on when there are other trades available. The stock doesn't pay any reasonable dividend. Surely nobody is going to fret over missing out on the laughable dividend yield of 0.02% (yes, you read that right).

Also posting quarterly returns were Intuit (INTU) and Urban Outfitters (URBN), the former (INTU) dropping more than 16% after announcing layoffs of 17% of its workforce, the latter (URBN) losing about two percent pre-market after beating the street.

Thursday morning brings earnings numbers from the following:

Walmart (WMT) - Shares are off 2% or more pre-market after the retail giant reported stronger sales but warned that high gas prices would cause consumers to pull back.
John Deere (DE) - Earnings beat easily, but company sees farm sales slipping, stock down 2-3%
Advance Auto Parts (AAP) - The company reports best sales growth in five years, re-affirms forwad guidance, shares up 6-7%
Ralph Lauren (RL) - Retailer exceeds 2026 sales goals, boosts divident 10%, shares flying, up 12% pre-market

The latest results suggest that there is a bifurcated social structure, with premium consumers having no urge to cut back on anything (Ralph Lauren), but a stressed middle and lower class consumer that is pulling in the reins (Walmart) and fixing or repairing what they already own (Advance Auto).

The trend that began more than a year ago - the top 10% of earners carrying the retail load - is magnified under the current regime. Most Americans can barely make ends meet and are carry high debt loads. The top 10% are spending as they please, with no worries, though the emergence of AI into the equation may begin to change the dynamic. Right now, and for the foreseeable future, it's middle management and grunts being laid off, but more and more people with high-end skills - coders, lawyers, accountants - are feeling AI heat. The message, "learn to code" is being replaced by "learn to weld" as physical skills are more immune to AI replacement. It's the planners, thinkers, and tinkerers at the fringes that are now being targeted for bot replacement surgery, aka, layoffs, buyouts, and early retirement.

With te market set to open within half an hour, Dow futures are down 155, NASDAQ Futures off 170, and S&P slipping 29 points, all of which fell sharply when the prospective Iran-U.S. deal was revealed to be dead in the water. Precious metals are down as well, with gold and silver each dropping less than one percent. As expected, WTI crude oil futures are back up above $100/barrel.

Treasury yields are lower, with the 10-year at 4.57% and 30-year bonds at 5.12%.

Are you not entertained?

At the Close, Wednesday, May 20, 2026:
Dow: 50,009.35, +645.47 (+1.31%)
NASDAQ: 26,270.36, +399.65 (+1.54%)
S&P 500: 7,432.97, +79.36 (+1.08%)
NYSE Composite: 23,021.74, +224.07 (+0.98%)

Day-traders Rejoice as Market Turns in Predictable Ways; Stock Futures Higher; Oil Down; Interest Rates Remain Higher; 10-year 4.65%; 30-year 5.18%

2026-05-20T09:27:25.218-04:00

Get ready.

Just in case anybody believed that three straight closes in the red on the S&P (down 150 points) was significant, consider the recent pullback nothing more than profit-taking by big moneybag holders of important stocks.

As the opening bell approaches, stock futures are flying higher, based on (choose one, multiple, or all)...

Thomas Massie lost his primary in Kentucky
Trump's Indian Ocean naval blockade intercepted more tankers
What happens in China stays in China
AI, baby!
Interest rates are coming down (LOL)
Nvidia's earnings after the close
Inflation is only 3.5%
Republicans will keep majorities in the House and Senate
MAGA
Trump gloating over primary wins

The root causes for stocks to accelerate into stock market heaven don't really matter. All that matters is the perception - as in the housing boom of 2006-07 - that stocks never go down. Or, at least they don't stay down for long.

Earlier this morning these companies reported first quarter results:

Target (TGT) - Huge top and bottom beats, stock down 3.5-4% pre-market
Lowe's (LOW) - Beats expectations, shares down 2%
TJX (TJX) - Earnings beat, soft outlook, shares higher by 3.5%
Hasbro (HAS) - In line or better, stock down 3% (up 18% YTD)
Analog Devices (ADI) - Tops estimates, upgrades outlook, down 1%

Stock futures are beating a path to an upside open. Dow futures are up 180; NASDAQ futures 200 points higher; S&P futures up 27. Gold and silver are posting gains, but everything is beginning to slip as the opening bell is lass than half an hour away. Crude oil is lower, at $101 and change. 10-year yields are at 4.65%. 30-year yields, 5.18. We are to believe those are stabilizing.

It's a day-trading paradise!

At the Close, Tuesday, May 19, 2026:
Dow: 49,363.88, -322.24 (-0.65%)
NASDAQ: 25,870.71, -220.03 (-0.84%)
S&P 500: 7,353.61, -49.44 (-0.67%)
NYSE Composite: 22,797.67, -102.90 (-0.45%)

President Trump's Inside Trading Is Criminal and Impeachable; Trump Warns Iran, Again, with Social Media; Americans Crushed by Inflation

2026-05-19T12:35:27.340-04:00

President Trump issued his usual Monday morning threat to Iran in hopes that he and his cronies could make more money trading stocks and oil futures.

This behavior is completely undignified and, honestly, insulting to anybody with at least two brain cells to rub together.

President Trump deserves to be in prison, not in the White House. He is leading America to its ruin, likely by design, while looting the treasury and making billions via insider trades.

It was revealed yesterday that Trump's investment advisors made at least 3,700 trades in the first quarter of 2026 including companies the White House had touted or whose executives Trump dined with at the White House months ago. Trades were made in Nvidia, Microsoft, Oracle, Boeing, Intel, and many others. The complete filing can be viewed here. [PDF]

Traders considered the sheer number of trades to be outrageous, especially for a sitting president. The White House denied that the president had anything to do with the trading which is handled by an investment advisor at the Trump Organization.

It's apparent that President Trump is making loot from his own actions. Some of his trades were in Intel, the company that the U.S. government had taken a 10% equity position recently and which Trump had publicly praised, urging people to "buy Intel."

This kind of behavior is insidious and indicates that the president, who is likely to be impeached in 2027, cares more about his bank account that he does for American citizens who are being quickly reduced to peons by inflation and the Mideast situation which the president initiated on behalf of Israel. The likelihood of Republicans holding majorities in the Senate and House is slim to none. The party of sitting presidents has lost seats in the House in 18 of the last 20 midterm elections. Trump is setting himself up for failure, knowing full well that even if he is impeached, the consequences will be nothing more than a bad reputation and a slap on the wrist.

Trump has enough money to retain the best lawyers against any actions that may come in the near future, and, at 79 years and counting, he's probably not very concerned about jail time.

In addition to the outrageous number and dollar amounts of his trades, which amount to billions, the Trump family also operates companies in the crypto space, which Trump has openly touted to the general public. His sones, Donald Jr. and Eric, have enriched themselves in various crypto ventures based on reputation and alignment with the White House, leaving many loyal ~~suckers~~ investors holding the bag after the insiders cashed out.

Others close to the president, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who hold no official office but serve as the president's preferred negotiators and advisors, no doubt have benefitted from inside, advance knowledge of White House policy.

No proof is needed to publicly indict these miscreants. Their arrogant actions speak for themselves. U.S. courts of law will probably choose to sidestep any issues as the broken two-tiered justice system routinely avoids charging public officials for any wrongdoings, even the most obvious and egregious.

Congress is not to be overlooked. Insider trading on public policy has been widespread for decades. Most politicians at the federal level enter office as upper middle class "servants" and leave, decades later, as multi-millionaires. It's disturbing, mob-like behavior for which the general public pays a heavy price for trusting them in the first place.

Entering Tuesday's gala trading session, WTI crude oil traded above $104/barrel on Monday and is approaching that level again. Stock futures are lower, as are gold and silver (no surprise there). Yield on the 10-year note is 4.62% with the 30-year bond yielding 5.14%.

Nice con job operation. Be a shame if anything should happen to it.

At the Close, Monday, May 18, 2026:
Dow: 49,686.12, +159.95 (+0.32%)
NASDAQ: 26,090.73, -134.41 (-0.51%)
S&P 500: 7,403.05, -5.45 (-0.07%)
NYSE Composite: 22,900.57, +101.14 (+0.44%)

WEEKEND WRAP: American New Normal Emerging with $100 Crude Oil, $5.00 Gas, 4-5% Inflation, 5% Interest Rates and Volatile Stocks Near All-Time Highs

2026-05-17T13:59:53.013-04:00

Following President Trump's rather fruitless trip to China and with zero resolution to condition in the Middle East, stock traders cashed out their options and sent stocks reeling on Friday, wiping out what looked to be another positive week on the maligned market for equities.

Also pertinent was the disdain for U.S. treasuries, especially on the long end with 30-year yields rocketing past five percent and 10-year yields spiking above 4.50%. Those represent starting points for Kevin Warsh's reign as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, starting June 1 and operationally serve as useful fodder for Trump's insistence for lower rates. Bond vigilantes are likely in broad disagreement, setting up some fireworks in the usually staid world of fixed income.

With oil flows still disrupted, the questioning public may query Big Oil and the government about why the U.S. exports oil at profit instead of serving the public interest by shoring up domestic supply, keeping the price of gas at the pump and in heating oil at sustainable levels. The cynical - and probably correct - answer is that the entities in control of U.S. energy supplies couldn’t care less about the needs of the citizenry.

Getting ever closer to a FU moment in the U.S., many patriotic serfs are gravitating away from the status quo, shedding political cover and moving closer to local and individual needs. Fiefdoms and regional warlords could become real things.

Last week's CPI and PPI readings were the worst in years, proving, once again, that central planners at the Fed and in the Treasury Department have their heads stuck firmly in the grips of their own anuses, a preferred position, it appears.

Moving on...

Stocks

Gains were completely wiped out by Friday's market dump, which looked very much like a rug-pull moment, but is not likely to be sustained. Wall Street, profitable on both sides of trades, does prefer gains over losses and all a deep dive does is put in place a rationale for buying the dip and sending stocks higher amid shouts from the Boaster-in-Chief about being the "hottest" (tell the truth, don't you hate when he says that?) economy in the world.

The week ahead will offer a piddling of dated first quarter results from suspect retailers and others. Since it's nearly June, these announcements will have little impact on current levels, as an economic shift is underway, but, here they are:

Monday: (before open) ReNew Power (RNW), Baidu (BIDU); (after close) Agilysis (AGYS)

Tuesday: (before open) Home Depot (HD), Vertiv (VRT); (after close) Toll Borthers (TOL), Red Robin (RRGB),

Wednesday: (before open) Target (TGT), Lowe's (LOW, TJX (TJX), Hasbro (HAS), Analog Devices (ADI); (after close) Nvidia (NVDA), Intuit (INTU), Urban Outfitters (URBN)

Thursday: (before open) Walmart (WMT), John Deere (DE), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Ralph Lauren (RL); (after close) Deckers (DECK), Workday (WDAY), Ross Stores (ROST), Lionsgate (LION)

Friday: (before open) BJ's Wholesale (BJ), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

The outlook for the week ahead is clouded, to say the least. The ancient adage, "sell in May and go away," may be appropriate.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
04/10/2026	3.67	3.69	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.72	3.70
04/17/2026	3.69	3.70	3.73	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.64
04/24/2026	3.69	3.72	3.71	3.69	3.69	3.71	3.67
05/01/2026	3.71	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.76	3.71	3.73
05/08/2026	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.69	3.75	3.74	3.75
05/15/2026	3.71	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.76	3.77	3.82

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
04/10/2026	3.81	3.80	3.94	4.12	4.31	4.89	4.91
04/17/2026	3.71	3.72	3.84	4.04	4.26	4.85	4.88
04/24/2026	3.78	3.80	3.92	4.10	4.31	4.88	4.91
05/01/2026	3.88	3.91	4.02	4.20	4.39	4.96	4.97
05/08/2026	3.90	3.92	4.02	4.19	4.38	4.93	4.95
05/15/2026	4.09	4.14	4.26	4.43	4.59	5.14	5.12

Interest rates (yields) shot straight up late this week, the continuation of a trend that began in early 2022, at the end of the covid fright and start of the Ukraine fiasco when the Federal Funds target rate had been slashed to near zero. The evolving global economy necessitated rising yields to slow runaway inflation and that trend will likely be exacerbated by continuation of military escapades and choking off of supply chains.

Amid a frightening and increasingly-polarized global economic oulook, lending money to the heavily-indebted U.S. government at any maturity longer than a year might raise the question of "return of equity" bayond the usual "return on equity."

At 10 years, a reasonable expectation might be in the range of 5.50-6.25% and beyond that for 30-year bonds, which may be nearing an extinction level event, precipitating the need for false-fronting "stablecoins" which are nothing more than currency chimeras and utterly worthless.

Rates sprung forward over the past week, with a spike of 19 basis points in 2-year notes, 21 on the 10-year and 17 on the 30-year sending spreads into the stratosphere, with 2s-10s at an even +50 and full spectrum topping out at a ghastly +141.

While certain borrowers may drool over the lavish boosts in yields, longer term trends suggest an unhappy ending with the journey to insolvency a minefield of failed policy and nervy speculation. For the U.S. and other debt-laden governments, the costs of servicing their bloated borrowings will outstrip all other expenditures, guaranteeing the ultimate default. Argentina has shown the way. Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Europe will precede the U.S. down that unhappy pathway.

Spreads:

Oil/Gas

WTI Crude Oil finished the week in New York at $101.16, higher substantially from last Friday’s New York closing price of $94.68, though still in the recent range of $90-110.

President Trump's wasted China visit late in the week sent stocks lower and oil prices higher. With no resolution in the Middle East, the stalemate between the U.S. and Iran may move in unanticipated directions. With Iran in control over the Strait of Hormuz and a U.S. naval blockade further out in the Golf of Oman and into the India Ocean, it should be expected that alternative routes will develop and they have, with Iran employing the Caspian Sea and rail routes east to Pakistan and China. Eventually, Iran has an upper hand, given that the number of oil tankers exiting the Persian Gulf outnumbers U.S. ships able to intercept them.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.50 last week and $4.48 this week, little changed. Americans increasingly are begrudgingly accepting their fate of higher gas prices, but are beginning to express displeasure with government policies, feeling the weight of their chains, so to speak. Intentioal or otherwise, the federal government and many states and localities are pressuring middle and lower-income families, stretching household budgets near breaking points. Unless the president changes course soon or congress gets off their lazy, overdeveloped rumps, the likelihood of mass civil disobedience increases.

In the meantime, Americans, having been through gas hikes and energy crises before, are adjusting and conserving wherever possible, though further increases in food and energy prices may be too much too bear

Prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.13 (-0.01)
Washington: $5.76 (+0.00)
Oklahoma (lowest): $3.95 (+0.03)
Florida: $3.17 (-0.25)
Illinois: $5.05 (+0.09)
Pennsylvania: $4.62 (-0.05)
New York: $4.58 (+0.03)
Maryland: $4.45 (-0.01)
Michigan: $4.83 (+0.12)
Texas: $3.92 (-0.11)
Georgia: $3.96 (-0.07)

On Sunday, May 17th, there are just four (5) states with average prices below $4.00 (Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Georgia, up from 4 last week, and 43 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.65) and Alaska ($4.26), four above $5 (California, Nevada, Washington, Oregon), and one above $6 (California). The Southeast has become the lowest region overall over the past week as the averaging right around $4.00 in places like Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi.

Bitcoin (aka, Trash)

This week: $78,015.76
Last week: $80,800.68
2 weeks ago: $78,694.80
6 months ago: $90,089.49
One year ago: $103,298.00
Five years ago: $37,482.21

"Hodlers" of six months to a year are down sharply, with only deep thinkers like Michael Saylor keeping the faith. With the U.S. congress moving forward on the CLARITY act this past week, the tom-foolery approaches the highest level of clown world. Cynthia Lummis, junior senator from Wyoming, otherwise known as Cheneyland, leads the charge toward government sponsored CBDCs.

From Wikipedia:

Lummis graduated from the University of Wyoming with a Bachelor of Science degree in animal science in 1976 and a Bachelor of Science in biology in 1978. She graduated from the University of Wyoming with a Juris Doctor in 1985, and was on the dean's list. She worked as a student teacher at Rock River School in 1977.

The perfect choice to sponsor crypto legislation.

What the world needs is a new currency regime based on gold and silver, not vaporware cryptocurrencies. Guess which one the government favors most. The people operating the govenment are about as useful as an umbrella during a hurricane.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 59.75; last week: 58.68

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 4/17: $4,849.40
Gold price 4/24: $4,725.40
Gold price 5/1: $4,625.60
Gold price 5/8: $4,723.70
Gold price 5/15: $4,543.60

Silver price 4/17: $81.58
Silver price 4/24: $76.19
Silver price 5/1: $75.84
Silver price 5/8: $80.83
Silver price 5/15: $76.29

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 4/17: $4,833.56
Gold 4/24: $4,709.27
Gold 5/1: $4,612.97
Gold 5/8: $4,714.90
Gold 5/15: $4,539.72

Silver: 4/17: $80.75
Silver 4/24: $75.63
Silver 5/1: $75.34
Silver 5/8: $80.35
Silver 5/15: $75.94

On Friday, with stocks hammered within the international geo-political stalemate, it made perfect sense for precious metals to take sizable losses. Actually, no. The LBMA/COMEX cabal complex continues operational, suppressing prices, albeit at higher levels than years prior. Taking everything into perspective, gold and silver may continue to be affected negatively if stocks continue to vacillate and national economies begin to falter into recession.

The alternative - converting to fiat - is not very attractive, though selling off part of one's stack for ready cash may prove to be prescient. On the other hand, precious metals are meant to be hedges against currency debasement and all manner of economic events. How one manages one's wealth all depends on personal perspectives, portfolio allocations, and investment horizons. To each his own, it seems, riding the waves in the economic lifeboats of choice.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	78.95	99.59	87.01	87.48
1 oz silver bar:	80.00	92.25	86.44	87.38
1 oz gold coin:	4736.77	4859.65	4776.06	4771.83
1 oz gold bar:	4716.01	4785.00	4742.79	4742.30

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell modestly, to $87.08, a decline of $1.59 from the May 10 price of $88.67 per troy ounce and within the recent range.

WEEKEND WRAP

An inclination to utter cynical or pessimistic phrases to describe current economic conditions may be a sign of extreme dissatisfaction and completely normal. Disruptions to the regular flow of goods, services and the normal functioning of national economies has been fomented by reckless and feckless leadership of Western nations, especially in the United States.

It's perfectly OK to occasionally utter "screw this" or "F them" in response to conditions created to subjugate the human race in favor of a handful of elitists with megalomaniacal intentions.

If so, you've got plenty of miserable company.

At the Close, Friday, May 15, 2026:
Dow: 49,526.17, -537.29 (-1.07%)
NASDAQ: 26,225.15, -410.08 (-1.54%)
S&P 500: 7,408.50, -92.74 (-1.24%)
NYSE Composite: 22,799.43, -302.42 (-1.31%)

For the Week:
Dow: -82.99 (-0.17%)
NASDAQ: -21.94 (-0.08%)
S&P 500: +9.57 (+0.13%)
NYSE Composite: -142.72 (-0.62%)
Dow Transports: -64.56 (-0.32%)

Trump China Trip Produces Little in Terms of Resolution to Iran or Taiwan; Stock Market Sniffing Out America's Weaknesses; Oil over $100

2026-05-15T11:18:57.036-04:00

Trump's China trip is over, with nothing substantial coming from it. There was some talk about a deal for China to order 200 planes from Boeing, and possibly as many as 750, though details were sketchy, like everything else Trump touches and touts as wins.

The trip was a PR stunt from the start and Wall Street has apparently sniffed it out and is in the process of selling the news after buying the rumor. The president brought an entourage of large tech company CEOs with him, an attempt to woo China towards more support for American companies breaking into the vast Chinese market. The effort seemed to go well on the surface, but beneath the sheen, nothing of consequence has been reported. It's likely that China was simply being polite to the U.S., rather than pressing hard on various issues.

China's president Xi did manage to sneak in some snark, suggesting that America was a declining nation. Trump scrambled to find a retort via social media, once again blaming Joe Biden and his administration for America's decline and stating once again that the U.S. is the "hottest" country on the planet. The rhetoric has grown cold and stale and fools nobody.

Thus, stocks are set to open Friday with a very downbeat tone and bond yields have broken out to the upside as investors demand more for their money.

Up until Thursday's closing bell, stocks were doing just swell. For the week, through Thursday, the Dow was up 454 points, the NASDAQ ahead by a whopping 388, with the S&P adding 102.

With options expiry on Friday, there's certain to be a good degree of volatility though nothing has really changed in the overall market structure or global geo-politics. The Strait of Hormuz remains a choke-point for oil. Ukraine unresolved, inflation headed higher in the U.S.

Yield on the 30-year bond has burned through the five percent line and the 10-year yield stands at 4.56%, suggesting that bond buyers are affirming the existence of much higher inflation in months ahead.

While the set-up for Friday looks threatening, with Dow futures down 435, NASDAQ futures off 495, S&P futures giving back 86 points, and WTI crude futures hitting $100 this morning, there isn't any apparent sign of a rug-pull moment, though everybody knows it's overdue. Insiders need to keep stocks rising, but there are only so many suckers and profit-taking may render any dip-buying a moot point.

At the Close, Thursday, May 14, 2026:
Dow: 50,063.46, +370.26 (+0.75%)
NASDAQ: 26,635.22, +232.88 (+0.88%)
S&P 500: 7,501.24, +56.99 (+0.77%)
NYSE Composite: 23,101.85, +128.29 (+0.56%)

Stocks Continue Higher Despite Inflation Terror; Trump's China Gambit a Ruse; Rug Pull or Maybe Not?

2026-05-14T20:56:36.271-04:00

So much for Wall Street coming to its senses over inflation.

After Tuesday's CPI showed consumer inflation increasing at a 3.8% annual rate and Wednesday's April PPI shoving the inflation agenda further up the chain with this sobering comment from the BLS...

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in March and 0.6 percent in February. The April increase is the largest advance since rising 1.7 percent in March 2022. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 6.0 percent for the 12 months ended in April, the largest 12-month increase since moving up 6.4 percent in December 2022.

... stocks opened to the downside but continued rallying the rest of the session after the big money guys had a goo 15-minute laugh. Shorts, as usual, were carried out on stretchers after one of the more quintessential head fakes in recent days. While the Dow and NYSE Composite finished in the red, their hues were more like the blush of a pink rose than fire truck tone by the end of the session.

More and more money flowed into tech stocks with the NASDAQ and S&P indices posting record highs. The Shiller PE ended the day at 42.32.

There isn't even a hint of pullback or correction in the charts or the general optimism. Stocks have to go up. The stock market is about the only thing on which the president, Republicans, tech bros., and the MAGA folks can hang their hats. Everything else, from Iran to inflation, to employment has, or is about to go tits up. Despite the continuing destruction of the empire, stocks save the day, every day, and will be expected to do so until there comes a rug pull, or, possibly, forever.

With the 30-year bond yielding 5.03% for two days running and the 10-year note yield stuck at 4.46, the perception is that stocks have become essential to survival. Yields go up, bond prices go down. Investors are finally demanding consummate return on their long-term risk profiles. The only surprising thing about five percent on the 30-year is that it's taken so long to get there.

The U.S., via its best carnival barker's tweets and threats, on the surface appears to be doing just fine. A peek under the hood, so to speak, reveals busted pipes and a sputtering industrial motor that's low on oil and in need of massive repair. Major infrastructure in the U.S. is aging and hasn't been sufficiently upgraded in decades. Asian countries are advancing. The West, ever so slowly, is committing suicide by a thousand cuts.

As the opening bell approaches, the Washington/Wall Street narrative seems to be holding. After all, isn't the president in China, telling Xi Jinping and anybody within earshot what a great poker hand he's playing? Bluffing won't work with China... or Russia... or even Iran. There are a lot of undercurrents advancing on the stock con. The U.S. stopped issuing a public measure of the underground economy in the 1980s. This laughable article estimates it at five percent of GDP in the U.S. when it's probably more like 25%, especially considering the GDP numbers are largely government spending and full up on pork and bunk. During the prohibition era of the 1920s, the underground economy was larger than the "above-board" official economy.

Governments everywhere, at the local, state and federal level, need to institute more new taxes and raise rates on those that already exist to see just how compliant Americans might be. Sooner or later, milking the same cow without offering it better feed ends up dry well. It will give, right up until it doesn't.

Run more deficits, borrow more money, abuse the population. FAFO.

At the Close, Wednesday, May 13, 2026:
Dow: 49,693.20, -67.36 (-0.14%)
NASDAQ: 26,402.34, +314.14 (+1.20%)
S&P 500: 7,444.25, +43.29 (+0.58%)
NYSE Composite: 22,973.56, -41.79 (-0.18%)

Trump In China for PR Stunt; No Major Developments Expected; Stocks Reel as PPI is Highest in Three Years; Futures Tanking, Oil Rising

2026-05-13T11:24:56.318-04:00

President Trump has arrived in Beijing Wednesday morning for his engagement with President Xi Jinping of China. The trip will be short, just two days - May 14 and 15 - with a loaded agenda. Among relevant issues the two leaders will discuss are the Iran war, the state of affairs concerning Taiwan, bi-lateral trade agreements, and a host of other tangential topics for discussion.

How anybody can take seriously a two-day "summit" stretches credulity to the breaking point. The usually-suspect American angle is to play up progress via tweets and TB coverage which will no doubt lean toward the positive. The last meeting between China and America's heads of state produced a tariff truce, which actually had Mr. Deal, President Trump, significantly backing off from a hardline stance.

One notable element is the U.S. delegation, including top executives from some of the most powerful - and mainly tech - U.S. companies.

The business delegation is supposed to include executives from Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), Boeing (BA), GE Aerospace (GE), Meta Platforms (META), BlackRock (BLK), Blackstone (BX), Micron (MU), Mastercard (MA), Qualcomm (QCOM), Visa (V), Cargill, Coherent (COHR) and Illumina (ILMN) in part or in whole. Cisco (CSCO) was invited but its CEO is not attending, along with NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang.

With Iran high on the Trump-Xi agenda, another conspiracy theory became conspiracy fact. Interesting article on climate change and weather modification used as an offensive weapon against Iran for years violating a long-standing climate treaty.

With Trump winging his way to talks, stock investors looked to April PPI, coming fast on the heels of Tuesday's CPI hot inflation reading of 3.8%. What they got from the BLS was an outright disaster.

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in March and 0.6 percent in February. The April increase is the largest advance since rising 1.7 percent in March 2022. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 6.0 percent for the 12 months ended in April, the largest 12-month increase since moving up 6.4 percent in December 2022.

Nearly 60 percent of the April rise in final demand prices can be attributed to a 1.2-percent advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods moved up 2.0 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.6 percent in April, the largest advance since rising 0.6 percent in October 2025. For the 12 months ended in April, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 4.4 percent, the largest 12-month increase since jumping 4.5 percent in February 2023.

At the producer level, these price movements have been trending higher for months, though neither the Fed, the White House, or the major news media seem interested in reporting the galloping inflation facing U.S. consumers. However, Wall Street took notice, sending stock futures screaming lower on the release of the data.

With the opening bell less than an hour ahead, Dow futures were slashed 258 points, NASDAQ futures were up 63 points, but well off earlier highs, and S&P futures were beginning to tank, down a mere points, but trending lower.

Wall Street can manage to overlook or spin data in a myriad of ways, but it appears that few appreciate higher consumer prices and producer costs. While America heads for a Weimar moment, President Trump is doing nothing to alleviate the situation, preferring to put on a media show via a high-level confab with the greatest nemesis to the U.S.

Little, if anything is expected from the two-day visit as there were no advance preparations to speak of and the short time element suggests that Trump's visit - much like everything else the "peace president" cooks up - is nothing but a PR event.

Along with stock futures, bitcoin is headed lower Wednesday morning while WTI crude oil edges higher, sitting at $102/barrel. Precious metals are pretty much flat, with silver holding $86 and gold dropped below $4,680, but recovering.

Time to find solutions is running short for President Trump in hotspots like Iran and Ukraine. He continues to lose support of MAGA faithful and independents, unsurprising given his attitude and adventurous antics which have largely caused chaos around the world and rapidly-rising inflation in the United States. While Trump may continue to insist that the U.S. is the "hottest" country in the world, he would do himself a favor by not making that claim too loudly or too often because the American people have had it up to their eyeballs with a president that has broken campaign promises, enriched himself and his co-conspirators, and is making a mockery of presidential leadership.

If there's a trend developing at all, it is the American public's distaste turning to righteous anger against a president that was a lame duck the moment he won his second term of office and Wall Street is beginning to take notice.

At the Close, Tuesday, May 12, 2026:
Dow: 49,760.56, +56.09 (+0.11%)
NASDAQ: 26,088.20, -185.92 (-0.71%)
S&P 500: 7,400.96, -11.88 (-0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 23,015.35, +44.58 (+0.19%)

CPI Comes In Red Hot, Inflation Rising at 3.8% Annually; Trump, Republicans Likely to Lose Midterms, Won't Matter to Wall Street; Silver Breaks Out, $93 Next Target

2026-05-12T11:13:15.905-04:00

U.S. midterm elections are November 3rd. That date deserves attention as the calendar puts us at less than six months away.

Individual winners and losers in the bi-annual popularity contest may not matter as much as which party will have a majority in the House and Senate, and, in the end it's one big uni-party, from a tactical perspective inside the D.C. beltway, the results offer more than just optics. Partisan politics being the preferred order of the U.S. system, policy will emerge from majority rule and chair positions on important committees.

According to reportage by The Conversation, the party holding the presidency has lost seats in 18 of the last 20 encounters, an eighty-year span beginning in 1946. For the MAGA cohort, this sends bad vibes which may result in Mr. Trump's third impeachment attempt by Democrats, though the most salient condition obtained from Republicans losing their razor-thin majority in the House is that any new or proposed legislation would likely be dead on arrival.

A flip in the House also neutralizes the Senate, no matter which party ends up with a majority. For U.S. business interests, this is a total win. Whenever official Washington goes into gridlock, the prospect of at least two years without government meddling into the affairs of companies large and small elicits loud howls of joy. If new highs on the stock market are a goal, vote Democrat!

The only times a sitting president's party gained seats were in 1998 (Clinton, +5) and 2002 (Bush, +8), back-to-back wins, one for each party. In those years, the presidential approval rating was exceedingly high. Clinton was at 66%, Bush at 63%. Since then, no president has polled higher than 45% heading into midterms (Obama, first term, 2010). For all the noise and clamor over the upcoming vote, it looks to be pretty much settled that Republicans are doomed. President Trump's most recent average approval rating is a meager 41% and the generic congressional vote favors Democrats over Republicans, 48.6%-42.6%.

Doomsday cometh.

Surprising nobody, the White House and the Republican election machinery is fully engaged toward reversing the trend, but it seems a fool’s errand. Unless economic and foreign policy conditions soon change radically, Democrats stand to turn the tables in November.

Shiller PE: 42.15

Roughly speaking, the S&P 500 would need to rise another 285 points in order for the Shiller PE to surpass the all-time high of 44.18. Given that the S&P is already up 567.34 points (8.29%) year-to-date one might assume that this particular "mother of all bubbles" would make the grade some time within the next few months.

The juggernaut that is the stock market seems to have no limit, no wall of worry to climb, and not much in the way of historical perspective. Because that record high occurred in December of 1999, market historians will note that in the first few months of 2000, the NASDAQ took an abrupt turn. The late 1990s and into the first three months of 2000 marked a period of rapid growth in U.S. technology stock prices, driven by speculation and heavy investment in startups with little to no profits.

Somewhat the same could be said of the current environment. Where the 1990s had the internet boom and dot-com stocks, the 2020s has embraced AI as the next great thing. Leading tech companies - Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Google, Apple, et. al., are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in data centers, infrastructure, and power plants, bent on riding the crest of the AI wave.

There will be no stopping stocks reaching record after record over the next six months and probably further into 2027. Despite plenty of evidence that the U.S. economy is a running on fumes. Foreign policy under Trump has been an unmitigated disaster. Wall Street doesn't care, so long as more money is directed into stocks, ETFs, IRAs, retirement accounts, and mutual funds.

Inflation, as measured by the CPI, will fan the flames even more. Asset inflation always leads consumer inflation, and this time is no different. Tuesday morning, the BLS released April CPI. Here's what they said:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after rising 0.9 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for energy rose 3.8 percent in April, accounting for over forty percent of the monthly all items increase. The shelter index also increased in April, rising 0.6 percent. The index for food increased 0.5 percent over the month as the index for food at home rose 0.7 percent and the index for food away from home increased 0.2 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in April. Indexes that increased over the month include household furnishings and operations, airline fares, personal care, apparel, and education. Conversely, the indexes for new vehicles, communication, and medical care were among the major indexes that decreased in April.

The all items index rose 3.8 percent for the 12 months ending April, after rising 3.3 percent for the 12 months ending March. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.8 percent over the year, following a 2.6 percent increase over the 12 months ending March. The energy index increased 17.9 percent for the 12 months ending April. The food index increased 3.2 percent over the last year.

The major damage from Trump's blustering and blundering in the Mid East, all at the behest of his pal, Bibi Netanyahu, hasn't even begun to be assessed. The knee-jerk reaction comes in the form of stock futures, which didn't skyrocket the moment the news was announced as they usually do, but barely budged. Some indication that Wall Street isn't exactly giddy over prospects for higher and higher consumer prices can be inferred and a mini-rally in gold and silver offers more evidence that the ongoing rally may be interrupted for a day or so.

Gold hit a one-month high on Monday, but silver was the real deal, making a breakout move over 80.70, the most recent high (April 17). Kitko marked the close in New York at 85.98, though other sources have it at 86.10. Either way, the move was expected and significant, pointing the silver price - as maligned and testy as it is - toward the next milestone, $93, and then, beyond. With the usually strong summer months in focus for precious metals, a slingshot move higher may now be in the cards. Both gold and silver sold off overnight, but th pair is rallying heading into the U.S. sessions.

As 9:00 am ET approached stock futures began moving higher, sending Dow futures marginally into positive territory. S&P futures remained subdued, down 20 points, while NASDAQ futures seek a pullback, down 218 heading toward the opening bell.

There were no big interests reporting earnings late Monday or early Tuesday, though hims|hers (HIMS), purveyors of questionable adult products like virility enhancers for men and perfumed soaps for women, went flaccid, dropping 16% pre-open on a first quarter earnings miss and discouraging guidance. Sorry, honey, not tonight.

Silver miner, First Majestic (AG), continued strong performance with an earnings beat and solid guidance. The stock is flat heading into the open. On an earnings beat and raised guidance, JD.com (JD) wins the morning, up about one percent in pre-market trading.

The CPI reading may only disrupt money flows for as little as a few hours or possibly a day or two, as PPI is the next hurdle, the April figures due out tomorrow.

Otherwise, buy the dip?

At the Close, Monday, May 11, 2026:
Dow: 49,704.47, +95.31 (+0.19%)
NASDAQ: 26,274.13, +27.05 (+0.10%)
S&P 500: 7,412.84, +13.91 (+0.19%)
NYSE Composite: 22,970.77, +28.62 (+0.12%)

WEEKEND WRAP: With Trump China Visit Imminent, Stocks Do Not Pause with Tech Titans Leading the Way; Gold and Silver Marked Higher; Oil Stuck in $90-$110 Range

2026-05-10T13:23:26.186-04:00

More of the same in the week ending Friday, May 8.

Iran and the U.S. continue a standoff in the Middle East, neither side having made any reasonable concessions on an overall peace plan. Military assets in the region are plentiful, with the U.S. and Iran each shoring up offensive and defensive capabilities.

Stocks continued to rise overall, with the Magnificent 7 and chip stocks producing outsized gains. The NASDAQ composite index is up nearly 13% year-to-date. Significantly, the NASDAQ has gained more than 5,400 points, from 20,794.64 on April 30, to 26,247.08 at the close of trading May 8, a 26% rise.

The remarkable returns for speculative tech stocks, albeit during a period of geo-political turmoil, have startled the investing community and bring into question overall market structure and general stability. While naysayers question the wisdom of pricing stocks to perfection under any circumstances, nobody on the bullish side has shown any compulsion to take profits nor deny the extravagance of the current rally.

No matter the circumstances surrounding the incredible recent returns, it is undeniably one of the most opportunistic periods in stock market history, with institutional money leading and retail flows accelerating.

There appears to be no fear and no stoping the powerful rally. Prospects for peace in the Middle East continue to fuel optimism. Oil prices have been fluctuating between $90 and $110 for WTI crude oil, though high gas prices - above a national average of $4.50 in the U.S. - threaten long term viability of sustaining expensive oil. A solution, which may be on the horizon with President Trump's planned trip to China beginning May 14, could come in less than two weeks time. Pessimism is anchored in the continuation of the conflict and the doupoly of Iran's hold of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. naval blockade in the Gulf region and into the Indian Ocean.

The week ahead could provide a breakthrough, though considering the U.S. military posture and Trump's hard-line attitude toward China, prospects are likely tempered that a lasting solution will be found within such a short period. Rather than seeking diplomatic solutions, Trump appears to be leaning more towards a "peace through strength" posture, which would nix any worthwhile agreement between the major global players, including China, Russia, the EU, and, to a lesser extent, India, which sits at the nexus of oil shipping lanes and need for continued importation of crude.

Stocks

The Shiller PE ratio (CAPE) stood at 42.05 (41.06 last week) at the close of trading Friday, a level second only to 44.19 reached at the peak of the dotcom spike in December 1999. The financial apparatus supporting such extremes is well aware of the incredible gap between price and value and will continue the crusade to ever more unsustainable levels. The game goes on. The financialization of the economy is nearly complete; the welfare/warfare state in control.

For those still drooling at the font of fiat, the week ahead will not offer much in terms of earnings reports, as the flow has slowed considerably over the past few weeks, most of the major companies having already posted first quarter results.

Monday: (before open) Barrick (B), Village Farms (VFF); (after close) hims|hers (HIMS), GoPro (GPRO)

Tuesday: (before open) First Majestic (AG), JD.com (JD); (after close) Karman Space & Defense (KRMN), Next Power (NXT)

Wednesday: (before open) Alibaba (BABA), Wix (WIX), eos (EOSE); (after close) Cisco (CSCO), Enovix (ENVX)

Thursday: (before open) Intuitive Machines (LUNR), Klarna (KLAR, Viking Cruise Lines (VIK), Yeti (YETI); (after close) Applied Materials (AMAT), Rumble (RUM)

Friday: (before open) Alaska Airlines (ALK), Suncrete (RMIX), PAVmed (PAVM), ARS Pharma (SPRY)

Outside of Trump's China visit, some of the more worthwhile data indicators include Tuesday's April CPI report from the BLS, expected to reflect the rising price of gas at the pump, and thus, inflation at the retail level. Leading off the week is the monthly report on existing home sales. PPI follows Tuesday's CPI numbers on Wednesday along with EIA crude oil and distillates weekly report. Thursday will feature unemployment claims and Import/Export prices prior to the open. Friday offers Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production figures for April. More from Trading View.

The question is not whether stocks will continue to rally, but how high they will go. The NASDAQ has slingshotted into the future with the S&P, and especially the Dow, lagging.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
04/03/2026	3.71	3.73	3.73	3.71	3.71	3.73	3.72
04/10/2026	3.67	3.69	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.72	3.70
04/17/2026	3.69	3.70	3.73	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.64
04/24/2026	3.69	3.72	3.71	3.69	3.69	3.71	3.67
05/01/2026	3.71	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.76	3.71	3.73
05/08/2026	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.69	3.75	3.74	3.75

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
04/03/2026	3.84	3.88	3.99	4.17	4.35	4.91	4.91
04/10/2026	3.81	3.80	3.94	4.12	4.31	4.89	4.91
04/17/2026	3.71	3.72	3.84	4.04	4.26	4.85	4.88
04/24/2026	3.78	3.80	3.92	4.10	4.31	4.88	4.91
05/01/2026	3.88	3.91	4.02	4.20	4.39	4.96	4.97
05/08/2026	3.90	3.92	4.02	4.19	4.38	4.93	4.95

Nothing much is happening in the treasury market except for the 30-year yield continuing to touch recent highs and threaten the five percent level. The Fed is doing its best to keep it below the 5% threshold. There shouldn't be much in the way of disruption in capital markets until Kevin Warsh is installed as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve. A full Senate vote is slated for Monday, May 11. Jerome Powell's term ends May 15. Procedural delays could still confuse matters, but Warsh is likely to receive the necessary votes to move forward.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48

Oil/Gas

WTI Crude Oil finished the week in New York at $94.68, down substantially from last Friday’s New York closing price of $102.50.

President Trump's China visit late in the week (May 14) is likely to have some significance in terms of oil and gas pricing. With anticipation for a breakthrough in the Middle East high, there is still a good deal of tension in the region and among larger players. The China visit may trigger a framework peace proposal, but tactics - especially those employed by the usually-intractable Trump - may keep the situation in the same on-and-off kind of flow.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.45 last week and $4.50 this week. Americans are trying to keep their cool over high gas prices, but a resolution to the war nobody wanted would go a long way to restore confidence. President Trump seems not to care much about suffering consumers. He continues to suggest that gas prices will come down, "like a rock" being his most commonly-used metaphor. He's losing ground, however. Impatient people polled Trump at just below 40% approval on the economy and foreign policy in recent polls.

Prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.14 (+0.04)
Washington: $5.76 (+0.10)
Oklahoma (lowest): $3.92 (+0.07)
Florida: $3.42 (+0.08)
Illinois: $4.96 (+0.03)
Pennsylvania: $4.67 (+0.15)
New York: $4.55 (+0.12)
Maryland: $4.46 (+0.20)
Michigan: $4.71 (-0.16)
Texas: $4.03 (+0.14)
Georgia: $4.03 (+0.20)

On Sunday, May 10th, there are just four (4) states with average prices below $4.00, down from 12 last week, and 44 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.63) and Alaska ($4.26), four above $5 (California, Nevada, Washington, Oregon), and one above $6 (California). The Midwest and Southeast have equalized over the past three weeks as the lowest-priced regions, with prices averaging roughly the same in states like South Dakota, Iowa and Kansas as compared to Tennessee, Georgia and Mississippi.

Bitcoin

This week: $80,800.68
Last week: $78,694.80
2 weeks ago: $77,941.15
6 months ago: $106,146.80
One year ago: $103,161.70
Five years ago: $46,725.23

Crypto is absolute trash, held mostly by whales, governments or ridiculous companies like Strategy (MSTR). It has not yet occurred to most "hodlers" that imaginary currencies are not even as useful as fiat. They live in a dream world.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 58.68; last week: 61.23

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 4/10: $4,771.00
Gold price 4/17: $4,849.40
Gold price 4/24: $4,725.40
Gold price 5/1: $4,625.60
Gold price 5/8: $4,723.70

Silver price 4/10: $76.03
Silver price 4/17: $81.58
Silver price 4/24: $76.19
Silver price 5/1: $75.84
Silver price 5/8: $80.83

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 4/10: $4,751.68
Gold 4/17: $4,833.56
Gold 4/24: $4,709.27
Gold 5/1: $4,612.97
Gold 5/8: $4,714.90

Silver 4/10: $75.95
Silver: 4/17: $80.75
Silver 4/24: $75.63
Silver 5/1: $75.34
Silver 5/8: $80.35

Solid week for both metals, with silver close to a breakout at any close above $80.75 in New York. This Friday's figure of $80.35 has it in range. Silver will continue to out-perform gold short term, though both appear to be headed higher with summer months generally positive for precious metals.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	79.96	99.99	87.99	85.80
1 oz silver bar:	84.00	104.50	91.93	88.98
1 oz gold coin:	4763.35	4961.00	4886.32	4909.00
1 oz gold bar:	4908.35	4971.00	4929.29	4919.83

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose modestly, to $88.67, a gain of $2.44 from the May 3 price of $86.23 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

Big gains on the NASDAQ are nothing new. Speculators crowd into tech names with regularity and generally are able to ride stock gains to fresh all-time highs before bailing. With so much experience backing their trades, there is as of yet no trigger for the eventual pullback. Markets have become dominated by heavy institutional flows, insider trades, and political leanings. It's not supposed to be that way, but traders have long ago given up on fundamentals as a price determinant and rely more on flows and momentum to time out trades in various sectors. Precious metals have experienced a paradigm shift recently, correlating with stocks in general and the S&P in particular.

Interesting times. A Chinese curse and a Westerized hope. Not a strategy.

At the Close, Friday, May 8, 2026
Dow: 49,609.16, +12.19 (+0.02%)
NASDAQ: 26,247.08, +440.88 (+1.71%)
S&P 500: 7,398.93, +61.82 (+0.84%)
NYSE Composite: 22,942.15, -69.16 (-0.30%)

For the Week:
Dow: +109.89 (+0.22%)
NASDAQ: +1132.64 (+4.51%)
S&P 500: +168.81 (+2.33%)
NYSE Composite: -99.00 (-0.43%)
Dow Transports: -399.46 (-1.94%)

April Non-Farm Payrolls: +115,000; Middle East Hostilities Escalate; Stocks Seek Another Week of Gains

2026-05-08T09:26:27.903-04:00

As if it mattered amid the turmoil in the Middle East and the price of gas in the U.S. and Europe, Wall Street will briefly turn its attention to the regularly-overstated and ultimately revised lower Non-farm Payroll report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for April.

As such, at 8:30 am ET, the BLS snet forth, in part, the news:

Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade. Federal government employment continued to decline.

and...

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 23,000, from -133,000 to -156,000, and the change for March was revised up by 7,000, from +178,000 to +185,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 16,000 lower than previously reported.

Just dandy.

Stock futures, which were already geared up in a positive ramp, added more upside. Just before 9:00 am ET, Dow futures were ahead by 240 points, NASDAQ futures gained 245, and S&P futures added 45 points.

Likewise, precious metals were bid, with gold as high as $4,723.00 and silver arcing above $81 per ounce.

Meanwhile, the fog of war remained cloudy and thick with rhetoric as hostilities between the U.S. and Iran escalated to a near boiling point. Iran seized an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman. Three U.S. destroyers transited out of the Strait of Hormuz under heavy fire from Iranian defenses. According to President Trump, none of the U.S. ships suffered damage, retaliating against Iranian launch sites in the region.

Iran has charged the U.S. with violating the ceasefire; the U.S. denies Iran's claims. No matter the case, both sides have been actively deploying various weapons on the ground and in the waters off Iran's coast. The situation has become intensified with jets, drones, missiles, and ordnance producing explosions and damage, especially in the UAE, which has joined forces with Israel and the United States.

If there's a ceasefire at all, it appears to be under stress as both sides continue efforts to open or close down shipping lanes and employ defensive and offensive measures on limited targets. Israeli forces remain bogged down in southern Lebanon and have been eerily quiet of late. The situation remains, to say the least, fluid.

Oil prices have risen. WTI crude oil futures are trading in a range of $95-97.

Through Thursday's close, the Dow is up 97 points for the week, NASDAQ is 691, and the S&P is ahead by 107.

Friday's session looks to be as volatile as those preceding it this week and stocks could go either way, depending on how Middle East developments are perceived by trades and speculators. Considering how stocks have been trading since the star of the Iran war, now more than two months deep, the choice to stay long or short over the weekend is likely to be a major consideration.

At the Close, Thursday, May 7, 2026:
Dow: 49,596.97, -313.62 (-0.63%)
NASDAQ: 25,806.20, -32.75 (-0.13%)
S&P 500: 7,337.11, -28.01 (-0.38%)
NYSE Composite: 23,011.31, -273.08 (-1.17%)

Sick Medical System: Nearly Half of Americans Have High Blood Pressure or Diabetes or Both, Due to Roving Benchmarks; Oil Lower, Gold, Silver, Stocks are Up

2026-05-07T09:27:09.561-04:00

Editor's Note: I recently had interaction with the medical community, something I've managed to avoid most of my 72 years on planet earth. While this time it turned out that I did need some medical attention, the condition is already being resolved, thanks to a realistic, savvy doctor at my clinic and no thanks to doctors at the local hospital. My interaction opened my eyes about the U.S. medical complex, Big Pharma firms, and hospital practices that routinely defraud patients, insurance providers and the government. I'll likely be sounding off about American medicine practices more often in this space. -- Fearless Rick

How is this even possible?

Nearly half of U.S. adults today have high blood pressure (48.1%, 119.9 million). This is defined as a systolic blood pressure greater than 130 mm Hg or a diastolic blood pressure greater than 80 mm Hg or are taking medication for high blood pressure.

Either half of the U.S. adult population is sick or the medical community has changed their methodology and benchmarks. It's the latter, and there's proof. Get together with a few friends. Look around. Which half of your group suffers from hypertension. According to rational analysis, in a group of 10 adults aged 25-65, less than three of them would be categorized as "ill."

High blood pressure, or, more accurately, stage 2 hypertension is commonly defined as a life-threatening condition. If you're one of those people who believe what doctors funded by Phizer, Merck, Bristol Myers Squibb, Ely Lilly or other pharmaceutical producers tell you, you're almost certain to become sicker and poorer taking their medicines.

Historical Blood Pressure Standards

According to a co-pilot AI search, During the 1960s, physicians often tolerated higher blood pressure readings than today. A reading that modern medicine classifies as Stage 2 hypertension, such as 160/100 mm Hg, was commonly accepted, especially in older adults, and treatment was usually reserved for more severe cases. Mild elevations, like 140/90 mmHg, were often labeled “high normal” or considered a natural consequence of aging, reflecting the belief that moderately elevated pressure could be beneficial for maintaining adequate blood flow.

Source: scienceinsights.org

A widely used clinical rule suggested that systolic pressure could be estimated as “100 plus age”, meaning a 60-year-old with a systolic pressure of 160 mmHg was not automatically treated. This approach contributed to the perception of “benign essential hypertension,” where moderately high blood pressure was thought to be compensatory rather than harmful.

(Editors Note: On Tuesday, my blood pressure was measured at 134/78. I'm 72, so the "age+100" rule suggests I'd be healthy at 172 over whatever. Some ~~quacks~~ doctors are telling me I'm diabetic because 130/80 is some kind of benchmark (It was lowered from 140/80 recently). They are, as my grandfather and father might have opined if they were alive today, FOS. My cousin Joyce calls doctors "professional guessers." BTW, I smoke, drink, and chase dangerous women. -- FR)

Here in 2026, stage 1 hypertension is defined as a blood pressure consistently between 130–139 mm Hg systolic or 80–89 mm Hg diastolic and is highly manageable with lifestyle changes and, in some cases, medication.

Stage 2 hypertension occurs when systolic blood pressure is 140 mmHg or higher, or diastolic pressure is 90 mmHg or higher, with only one of these numbers needing to be elevated to qualify (e.g., 145/82 mmHg counts as stage 2).

The medical community - famous for the "safe and effective" COVID vaccine which killed and injured millions - like all other government-big business-related entities, push a narrative designed to put as many people as possible on Big Pharma drugs when they actually don't need them. The same applies, in spades, for diabetes, the latest boogeyman disease that seldom shows symptoms until doctors get ahold of your blood and perform their voodoo tests.

If quality of life is important to you, avoid doctors and hospitals, eat a healthy diet, get some exercise and be your own doctor. Your body will tell when you're sick better than nay tests or doctors ever will.

The CDC has the gall to publish things like this:

Total diabetes: 40.1 million Estimated number of people with diagnosed or undiagnosed diabetes in the United States, 2023

12.0%: Estimated percentage of the U.S. population with diabetes

Diagnosed diabetes: 29.1 million Estimated number of people with diagnosed diabetes in the United States, including 28.8 million adults aged ≥18 years

Undiagnosed diabetes: 27.6% Estimated percentage of adults aged ≥18 years with diabetes who are undiagnosed, representing 11.0 million people

Prediabetes: 115.2 million Estimated number of U.S. adults aged ≥18 years with prediabetes

See the problem here? It's in that Undiagnosed diabetes reference of 27.6%. If 11.0 million people are 27.6% of the population over 18, that means the total adult population is 39.86 million, which is obviously wrong and makes a laughingstock of the assertion that 115.2 million (out of 39.86 million!) have Pre-diabetes, whatever that is. One would assume these are people that Big Pharma would like to be fully diabetic and eligible to buy their drugs.

Or, maybe the "total diabetes of 40.1 million, which is referenced as 12% of the U.S. population, is correct? That appears to be closer to the truth, about 334 million. adding it all up, 155.3 million, about 46.5% of all U.S. population falls into one of these categories.

With numbers as skewed and obviously incorrect as these, how can te CDC have any credibility at all? Like hypertension, diabetes is arcing toward 50% of the population. In a few years, it will be 60%, then higher, until almost everybody is on some kind of medication.

It's kind of insane. The U.S. medical system is broken. Most doctors and nurses with a conscience will tell you so.

The preceding monologue does not constitute medical advice. Everybody is different. When modern medicine practitioners recognize that fact of life, health care in the U.S. can begin to be reformed.

Getting on to stocks and money...

The Shiller PE ratio (CAPE) stands at 41.83, closing fast on the all-time record high of 44.19 (December 1999). Beyond bubble territory. There's almost no way to accurately describe the level of price/value dislocation.

Earnings reports continue to roll out at a slowed pace.

Walt Disney (DIS) reported Wednesday morning, prior to the open. Strong results for the first quarter of 2026 sent the stock soaring from 100.51 to close the session at 108.03, a gain of more than seven percent. The massive gains seen in many stocks upon earnings reports or news flow points up the gamey nature of U.S. markets. Just because a company has a solid quarter or launches some exciting, fresh venture, doesn't automatically make it more valuable, though in the "take no prisoners" current environment, with everybody chasing momentum and yield, these kinds of gains have become normalized. Stock buyback programs and heavy insider buying (and selling) also emulate a market that is highly compressed and triggered by headlines.

After Wednesday's close Applovin (APP), Snap Inc. (SNAP), Beyond Meat (BYND), Dutch Bros. (BROS), and Coinbase (COIN) reported. Of those, Snap Inc. saw the biggest decline, losing more than eight percent in pre-market trading. The stock is close to an all-time low around $6 per share, down from a high of $83 in 2021.

Beyond Meat (BYND) is now a $1 stock and will soon be in danger of delisting, losing 11% pre-market. It was briefly a $150 stock back in 2021. Apparently, Americans prefer real beef, even if it costs them $20 or $30 a pound.

Coffee chain Dutch Bros (BROS) is headed down more than six percent even after beating Street estimates.

Thursday, before the open, McDonald's (MCD) reported, and the outlook is not good. Despite an earnings beat, the stock is wallowing around one percent to the downside.

The Middle East situation continues to evolve in myriad ways. Iran continues to hold out for better terms regarding an end to the conflict. Meanwhile, the duopoly of Iran's guarding of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. naval blockade in the Indian Ocean continue to keep oil flows at a trickle. Traders, however, are confident a solution is near, sending WTI crude down more than five percent to $90 a barrel.

Maverick entrepreneur and founder of CNN, Ted Turner, has passed away at the age of 87.

Stocks look to be headed even higher Thursday as futures are up across the board. Silver is up sharply, at $81.17 an ounce. Spot gold is at $4,738.90.

At the Close, Wednesday, May 6, 2026:
Dow: 49,910.59, +612.34 (+1.24%)
NASDAQ: 25,838.94, +512.82 (+2.02%)
S&P 500: 7,365.12, +105.90 (+1.46%)
NYSE Composite: 23,284.39, +275.72 (+1.20%)

Truth is Becoming Less Identifiable and Discernible as U.S. Narrative Focuses on Peace Negotiations with Iran; Stocks, Gold, Silver Rally; Oil Drops

2026-05-06T09:42:28.818-04:00

Just a day after announcing "Project Freedom", President Trump announced that the operation designed to escort commercial ships safely through the Strait of Hormuz was abruptly ended.

The consensus opinion of military experts outside the Beltway Bullhorn media complex contends that the two ships that actually did transit the Strait successfully were aligned with the U.S. military, part of a program that allowed for military assets to be shipped on commercial ships. The revealing information was quickly scrubbed from most outlets reporting the operation.

CENTCOM issued no official confirmation, only a briefly worded statement.

According to CBS News:

The USS Truxtun and USS Mason, supported by Apache helicopters and other aircraft, faced a series of coordinated threats during the passage, the defense officials said. Iran launched small boats, missiles and drones against them in what officials described as a sustained barrage.

Despite the intensity of the attacks, neither U.S. vessel was struck.

Whether or not the events reported actually happened remains a matter of some speculation.

In any case, the story being told by the White House and military officials, similar to the "rescue" operation in Iran a few weeks ago, is what matters to the ongoing struggle in the Middle East, and to Wall Street and its headline-gorging algorithms.

Wednesday morning, stocks are being lifted by accounts that the U.S. and Iran are close to a deal, though Iranian sources have denied any such condition, saying, in part, "The negotiations are still facing the intransigent American approach and excessive demands."

Another Wednesday morning truth by President Trump offered this:

Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran. If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

With an assortment of diverse opinions coming from the likes of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and War Secretary Pete Hegseth, the truth may be just a little harder to discern than taking media reports (without video) at face value.

All this uncertainty leads to the ultimate goal, as Morpheus explains the matrix to Neo:

Stocks, in response to government propaganda, are set to soar Wednesday. The price of WTI crude oil on the COMEX has fallen below $100/barrel, down to a low of $88.66 earlier this morning. Gold ($4,684) and silver ($76.70) are also rallying sharply. Stock futures ar substantially higher.

At the Close, Tuesday, May 5, 2025:
Dow: 49,298.25, +356.35 (+0.73%)
NASDAQ: 25,326.13, +258.32 (+1.03%)
S&P 500: 7,259.22, +58.47 (+0.81%)
NYSE Composite: 23,008.67, +115.21 (+0.50%)

Stocks Open Week on Downside, Look to Rebound Tuesday as "Project Freedom" Seeks to Free Up Strait of Hormuz to Commercial Traffic

2026-05-05T09:28:02.156-04:00

Stocks opened the trading week with a bit of a pullback, especially on the Dow Industrials, which was down more than one percent at the end of the day. That drop isn't likely to matter much, as Tuesday's open approaches with tensions escalating in the Middle East.

According to CENTCOM, two U.S. Navy destroyers have transited the Strait of Hormuz, allegedly suppressing a sustained assault by Iranian fast boats, missiles, and drones in the first true test of "Project Freedom", by which the U.S. plans to escort commercial ships through the strait into open, friendlier waters.

Initial reports being positive, stock futures are responding to the headlines. Dow futures are up 220 points, NASDAQ futures are ahead by 213, and S&P futures show a positive gain of 35 points a half hour before the opening bell.

On Monday, yield on the 30-year bond crept up to 5.05%, a danger signal to U.S. interests. Rising yields on the longest-duration treasuries is something the Trump administration would rather not contend with, as higher yields suggest insecurity in lending the to the U.S., already more than $38 trillion in debt.

Tuesday morning, yields on the 30-year are declining, close to an even 5.00%, but the danger still exists. Ten-year notes are yielding roughly 4.42%, though they came closer to the Mendoza line at 4.50% on Monday.

As far as "Project Freedom" is concerned, so far, so good, as CBS news is confirming the transit of Hormuz by the two Navy ships. Whether on not CBS reporting constitutes actual confirmation is questionable, as the network is usually little more than a stenographer for the federal government and military.

On the earnings front, reporting first quarter results Tuesday before the open:
Pfizer (PFE) - earnings beat, reaffirms guidance, stock up less than 1% in pre-market
PayPal (PYPL) - reports higher earnings and revenue, stock slides 9.5%
Marathon (MPC) - big beat on revenue, earnings, shares marginally higher
Shopify (SHOP) - revenue gains, profits slim, shares down 7%

Gold and silver are ripping higher as the U.S. cash open approaches, though both are well off last year's all-time highs. Bitcoin has streaked beyond $81,000, also well below 2025 highs of $124,000.

The oil must flow, WTI crude down $3 to $103 and change.

At the Close, Monday, May 4, 2026:
Dow: 48,941.90, -557.37 (-1.13%)
NASDAQ: 25,067.80, -46.64 (-0.19%)
S&P 500: 7,200.75, -29.37 (-0.41%)
NYSE Composite: 22,893.46, -147.68 (-0.64%)

WEEKEND WRAP: It's All Wrong and You're Just Beginning to Notice; Governments Are Killing Entire Economies: U.S. National Average Gas: $4.45

2026-05-03T12:38:42.965-04:00

Government, always and everywhere, are obnoxious. President Trump is merely the most recent manifestation of bad behavior.

Whether the ruling powers of a nation, territory, tribe, state, city, county or any other superficial construct created by people with the power to create sovereignty be cloaked in the colors of democracy, socialism, communism, fascism or any other "ism", the goals are the same: to Thwart the will of the people, to steal their wealth and resources, and to enslave working men and women, their ilk, and their progeny.

The ultimate aim of government everywhere is to enrich those in positions of power by taxation and confiscation of other people's wealth via laws, regulations, tariffs and doctrines. They tax and regulate income, property, and resources endlessly, and by this means drain the wealth of entire populations gradually, but ultimately effectively.

Take the United States for example. At all levels, government taxes, borrows, and spends the wealth of the submissive population to further their own ends, pocketing a percentage here, a fee there, a regulation or tariff everywhere. As government has grown into a self-inflating, self-perpetuating behemoth, its minions, the so-called "public servants" are rewarded with salaries and benefits that far exceed those enjoyed by the public. They are paid to carry water for the elitist elected officials and do their bidding at the expense of the people they are ostensibly supposed to be serving.

They are all parasites, otherwise unemployable and worthless, having no skills other beyond those of common con men or paper-pushers and have the power of law and doctrine to enforce their will over those of the general public.

Any person living within the confines of government - and that would be every man, woman, and child in the world outside of aboriginal tribespeople in far away places - would better their lot in life with an understanding that the government is not there to protect them, nor to aid them in any manner, but to sublimate their will and use their labor and capital to further their own intentions.

One would not be blind to the government's reach into every aspect of their lives: how they live, what they buy, with whom they associate. One would be well-served to keep government at arm's length or further away from one's private affairs, of which government has no business. The goal of the empowered individual would be wise to be silent as to one's holdings or wealth, measured in property, well-being, and capacity to live free, to keep what is rightfully theirs, unencumbered and unknown to the government monstrosity.

It's a tough task that takes a man or woman's full life and effort, but it essential to ensure proper prosperity and liberty.

Americans and most everybody living within the modern constructs of advanced societies need to be aware that government will take a generally large percentage of one's wealth if allowed to do so. Ordinary people are cajoled and encouraged to engage in "wealth-building" in the institutionalized mechanisms of banking, stocks, bonds, annuities, insurance, and properties, all of which, beyond basic personal and real property, are unnecessary and a means by which the government taxes and confiscates wealth.

Avoidance of these accepted, annoying nuisances provides a pathway to economic and personal freedom.

Real property, collectibles of value, precious metals, and profitable private business operations are essential to well-being.

The tropes promoted by governments, media, and their salespeople are corrosive, subject to vast mis-valuation, and confiscatable.

Stocks

Who gets played?

The NASDAQ composite has finished positive in 19 of the past 23 sessions.

After having risen 13 out of 15 sessions from the end of March, the Dow Transportation Average finished negative seven of the last eight sessions.

Dip buyers were handsomely rewarded. Overall, it's a rotten game. Those who choose to play only at the margins, via buy and hold tactical strategies, are allowed a free ride on the stock market roller coaster. Stock specificity and allocation allotments are mild tolls of the passive investor, those whose only worry is having enough to last until their ultimate demise. Willingly trapped into the system, they facilitate the government's ultimate tax skimming superstructure.

Good doggies. Now, go lay down.

The Shiller PE ratio (CAPE) stood at 41.06 at the close of trading Friday, a level second only to the level of 44.19 reached at the peak of the dotcom spike in December 1999. The financial apparatus supporting such extremes is well aware of the incredible gap between price and value and will continue the crusade to ever more unsustainable levels. The game goes on. The financialization of the economy is nearly complete; the welfare/warfare state in control.

For those still drooling at the font of fiat, the week ahead will be loaded to the gills with earnings reports.

Monday: (before open) Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH), Tyson (TSN), Berkshire-Hathaway (BRK.B); (after close) Pinterest (PINS), Transocean (RIG), Palantir (PLTR)

Tuesday: (before open) Pfizer (PFE), PayPal (PYPL), Marathon (MPC), Shopify (SHOP); (after close) AMC (AMC), Strategy (MSTR), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

Wednesday: (before open) KraftHeinz (KHC), Uber (UBER), CVS Health (CVS), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Walt Disney (DIS); (after close) Applovin (APP), Snap Inc. (SNAP), Beyond Meat (BYND), Dutch Bros. (BROS), Coinbase (COIN)

Thursday: (before open) McDonald's (MCD), Celsius (CELH); (after close) Affirm (AFRM), Opendoor (OPEN)

Friday: (before open) Enbridge (ENB), Wendy's (WEN)

Friday, May 8, the BLS trots out the latest made-up employment numbers with the April Non-farm Payroll Report (begging the question of what is farm employment looking like?).

Volatility continues, upside momentum is nearing conclusion. "Sell in May and Go Away" motif may be a suitable motif, urging profit-taking.

One final note: Spirit Airlines, with a business model catering to low-income fliers, has gone bankrupt. A lesson for us all.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
03/27/2026	3.74	3.73	3.72	3.73	3.72	3.75	3.77
04/03/2026	3.71	3.73	3.73	3.71	3.71	3.73	3.72
04/10/2026	3.67	3.69	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.72	3.70
04/17/2026	3.69	3.70	3.73	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.64
04/24/2026	3.69	3.72	3.71	3.69	3.69	3.71	3.67
05/01/2026	3.71	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.76	3.71	3.73

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
03/27/2026	3.88	3.94	4.06	4.25	4.44	4.99	4.98
04/03/2026	3.84	3.88	3.99	4.17	4.35	4.91	4.91
04/10/2026	3.81	3.80	3.94	4.12	4.31	4.89	4.91
04/17/2026	3.71	3.72	3.84	4.04	4.26	4.85	4.88
04/24/2026	3.78	3.80	3.92	4.10	4.31	4.88	4.91
05/01/2026	3.88	3.91	4.02	4.20	4.39	4.96	4.97

Now that Chairman Jerome Powell is done and gone after Wednesday's "stand down" on interest rate policy, the 30-year yield is getting darn close to five percent. Once it heads beyond that, some little dose of non-reality will be needed to "calm markets."

Any rational investor would likely believe the yield on 30-year paper loaned to a government that is nearly $40 trillion in debt and can't stop spending should be closer to eight percent, or, a loan not made. Due diligence matters, and the U.S. government is a deadbeat. In 30 years, it's likely to be even still dead and more beaten. Like everything else in fantasy finance, the 30-year is a trade, based solely on what the underlying security will bring in three to six months. Nobody in their rigt mind would hold government paper at under five percent for the duration.

Everything within the treasury yield curve is cockeyed. If one can get 3.71% risk-free on a one-month bill, why in the world risk anything for any longer unless the yield is significantly higher? The answer lies in the full spectrum spread from 30 days out to 30 years. It reached +126 this week, a nominal high, and appears to be pointing higher, so, when Kevin Warsh becomes the new Fed head and begins lowering rates to accommodate more spending by the government (Trump loves low rates (and inflation)), the spread will expand to probably well beyond 200 basis points (2.00%), which would satisfy the desires of both the government and the heavy money in the 30-year market. Government borrowing on the short end at less than three percent and 30-year bonds at 5.50% gets the juice flowing in exactly the right direction to grease both Wall Street and Federal .gov machinery at the same time. What a world.

BTW: the 2s-10s spread, this week at +51, has become meaningless untill it approaches zero. While it's not even close yet, the trend is your friend. Inversion by December appears baked into the yield cake.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51

Oil/Gas

WTI Crude Oil finished the week in New York at $102.50, just a little higher than last week's close of $94.88. Two weeks ago it was $84.00. The high this week was $110.09. If President Trump doesn't come to his senses soon and get the hell out of the Middle East, end the moronic, just-for-show "blockade", WTI crude will ramp up to $150.

Some people, including many prominent financial and political pundits, seem to believe that Trump cares about the fate of the Republican party in the November midterms and will do everything he can to lower the price of oil and gas in the U.S. to ensure majorities in the House and Senate.

This is a dangerous fallacy. Trump could care less about Republicans or Democrats or the House and Senate. He's a lame duck interested in padding his already grotesque bank account and little more. Getting the price of oil out of the $55-65 range was a priority and he's already done that. Keeping crude well above $100 and gas closer to $5.00 than to $3.50 is next on his agenda, paying off political dues to the people who matter, heavily invested in energy commodities and the companies that ~~gouge~~ serve American drivers.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.07 last week and $4.45 this week. Americans are getting lubed, good and hard, and without so much as a reach-around. Thank you President Bone-spurs.

Prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.10 (+0.16) Yippie! for the Golden State!
Washington: $5.66 (+0.22)
Oklahoma (lowest): $3.85 (+0.38)
Florida: $3.34 (+0.42)
Illinois: $4.93 (+0.62)
Pennsylvania: $4.52 (+0.37)
New York: $4.43 (+0.29)
Maryland: $4.26 (+0.27)
Michigan: $4.87 (+0.86)
Texas: $3.89 (+0.26)
Georgia: $3.83 (+0.24)

On Sunday, May 3rd, there are 13 states with average prices below $4.00, and 35 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.60, -0.04) and Alaska ($5.04, +0.29), and three above $5 (Nevada, Washington, Oregon), and one above $6 (California). The Midwest and Southeast have equalized over the past two weeks as the lowest-priced regions, with prices averaging roughly the same in states like South Dakota, Iowa and Kansas as opposed to Tennessee, Georgia and Mississippi.

Bitcoin

This week: $78,694.80
Last week: $77,941.15
2 weeks ago: $75,748.31
6 months ago: $106,774.80
One year ago: $95,816.94
Five years ago: $58,815.15

Crypto is absolute trash. Witness the dumping by the Trump family in their own meme coins and various business ventures in the space. Now would be a good time to sell, if you're dumb enough to have any.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 61.23; last week: 62.27

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 4/3: $4,702.70
Gold price 4/10: $4,771.00
Gold price 4/17: $4,849.40
Gold price 4/24: $4,725.40
Gold price 5/1: $4,625.60

Silver price 4/3: $73.17
Silver price 4/10: $76.03
Silver price 4/17: $81.58
Silver price 4/24: $76.19
Silver price 5/1: $75.84

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 4/3: $4,677.28
Gold 4/10: $4,751.68
Gold 4/17: $4,833.56
Gold 4/24: $4,709.27
Gold 5/1: $4,612.97

Silver 4/3: $73.02
Silver 4/10: $75.95
Silver: 4/17: $80.75
Silver 4/24: $75.63
Silver 5/1: $75.34

Stackers and bugs are still getting shafted by the COMEX/LBMA riggers, a condition that appears to be nearing an end, though the interested parties are sure to not go down without a fight of some significance. Many complaints are being lodged by individual sellers not getting anything near spot for their holdings at dealers. Many do better on eBay, though the 15-20% vig negates much of the profit.

The physical market is sending a clear signal to hold. Buying, near, at, or above spot is probably OK, given a long enough time horizon. Otherwise, buying scrap or items containing gold and silver, like watches, jewelry, silverware, trinkets, etc. at estate and garage sales is becoming a buyer's market if one knows what they're doing. People who are selling are either desperate or stupid or both, so buying well below spot on a meltdown value basis can be fun and extremely profitable. Getting the loot is just beginning to be a grand game.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	76.00	96.75	85.58	85.53
1 oz silver bar:	81.00	91.61	87.24	86.55
1 oz gold coin:	4687.60	4954.98	4795.08	4794.99
1 oz gold bar:	4804.98	4935.11	4844.05	4839.79

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell for a second straight week, to $86.23, a loss of $1.71 from the April 26 price of $87.94 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

Governments suck, and the current ones, with tax rates, when one considers all degrees of the totality of income, property, sales, and hidden excise taxes (gas, phone, all kinds of services) well over 40-50% of one's gross income, suck very much harder. The insane levels of money going to government will bankrupt what's left of the middle class and begin to wreak havoc on the final 10% of top earners.

Inflation is about to explode higher. Keep what's yours. Let the government kill itself. Don’t go down with it.

At the Close, Friday, May 1, 2026:
Dow: 49,499.27, -152.87 (-0.31%)
NASDAQ: 25,114.44, +222.13 (+0.89%)
S&P 500: 7,230.12, +21.11 (+0.29%)
NYSE Composite: 23,041.15, -103.50 (-0.45%)

For the Week:
Dow: +268.56 (+0.55%)
NASDAQ: +277.84 (+1.12%)
S&P 500: +65.04 (+0.91%)
NYSE Composite: +106.60 (+0.46%)
Dow Transports: -273.98 (-1.41%)