Monkey Magic Betting Blog

Friday 13th January 2012

2012-01-13T01:25:00.000-08:00

Friday the 13th, unlucky for some, but hopefully not for me. Seriously I tend to believe that you make your own luck, with the old adage being true, that the harder you work the luckier you become. And as always I'll be working hard at finding some winning betting opportunities.

In another cracking night at the Lakeside it was all good news, as my index bet Harms duly despached Jennings despite a slow tentative start, and O'Shea won me the money by knocking out defending Champion Wolfie Adams. Granted O'Shea was far more impressive than the young Dutchman Harms, but I fancy Harms to beat Silverback in Saturdays semi final at juicy odds of around the 2/1 mark. My reasoning being that O'Shea will perhaps suffer mental letdown after his titanic win against the defending Champion and also in his post match interview he made a slip in inferring that he was as good as the winner of the event. I think complaceny may be a factor and if Harms can start a little better and improve his average a bit he can win this match.

In todays matches hopefully Kist can beat the improving Norris to keep my index bet alive, although I do think that this match could be a little closer than the bookies think. In the other quarter final I'd suggest a bet on Yorkshireman Atkins to beat Hankey. For all the hype concerning Hankey he hasn't really been playing that well, and at 2/1 steady Atkins has got to be worth a small bet.

Having said that I don't bet mid week I did yeseterday, and it turned out to be a profitable day thanks to the win of Musir at Meydan. I am a big fan of Nick Mordin and reading his column yesterday I was struck by how highly he rated Musir. Sorry I didn't tip this one up, but it was really a late thing.

I might be back later today with updates on Saturdays horse racing cards.

Thursday 12th January 2012

2012-01-12T01:35:00.000-08:00

It's really good having a few days off work, bit of a lie in, nice relaxing breakfast, and then plenty of time to study the days punting opportunities. Someone give me a few grand and I would happily do this for the rest of the year.

It was a night of shocks at the Lakeside with both Waites and Winstanley falling to second round defeats. Fortunately I managed to trade away a large part of the losses whilst watching the matches, both of which went to last set deciders. Waites played awful, continuing his misery at the World Champs, whilst Winstanley fell apart from a winning position. Good news however, came from my main bet Christian Kist, who was once again impressive in defeated the Belgium De Vos. Its a no lose position on Kist now, since he has 10 points on the Index and I bought him at an average of 6.6. It is a tough quarter final against an inform Norris, but such has been the quality of Kist that I will probably let this bet run.

Tonight my other Index bet Harms is in action against Jennings, and providing he plays to form he should have too much scoring power for the so far unimpressive Geordie. The other quarter final looks like a cracker between the defending champion Wolfie Adams and the amiable Tony O'Shea. Both players had similar stats in round 2, but to me the Stockport man O'Shea was visually more impressive. It's hard to back against a man with Adam's recent Lakeside record, but I'll be having a small bet on O'Shea at around the 7/4 mark.

Not too much else happening today except the start of this weeks golf, which will give me plenty of time to look through the weekends racing cards. These day's I ignore the poor horse racing fare on offer during the week concentrating entirely on the weekend's action.

Wednesday 11th January 2012

2012-01-11T04:31:00.000-08:00

The second round matches are well underway at the Lakeside World Championships, and despite much derision from many, I am thoroughly enjoying the event. Last night I was very impressed with the young Dutchman Harms, who dispatched Robbie Green with ease, and hence I have invested at 17 on the Sporting Index outright index. Harms plays Jennings next, and on averages I just cannot see Harms losing, so it is pretty strange that Sporting favour the Englishman. I have also reduced my position on Winstanley who really didn't look great in round 1, although the Yorkshireman is still a winner for me.

In the Masters Snooker I am all over the new superstar Judd Trump, the UK Champion has a difficult draw, facing either O'Sullivan or Ding in Round 2, but Trump just seems to get better each event and you've just got to be with him, whilst he's available at 6/1. I can see Trump being a legend of the game, who will be priced up close to odds on for each major event.

This weeks golf looks very interesting and I've decided to have a few small bets. In the Joberg Open I like Schwartzel (although very short) and the consistent and in form Van de Zyl, whilst in the Sony Open I have backed Howell and Choi. Just very small bets but hopefully we will see some returns.

I like the Lanzarote and Peirce Hurdle this weekend, but these days there's not much point playing ante post as there's the risk of non runners, and often better prices are available the night before the race. Therefore I'll be doing my reaerch and form study over ny next few days off week,

Tuesday 10th Janaury 2012

2012-01-10T02:41:00.000-08:00

The New Year goes onwards, but is it filled with hope or dread, that I do not know. I shall try to fill my heart with optimism and hope that 2012 is better than 2011. Postively, after today I have nearly 2 weeks off work. In 2012 I'll be working hard on being positive and ridding myself of the destructive negative thoughts.

Good news from the Lakeside as 'Over The Top' Dean Winstanley scrambled through to the second round, although I wasn't that impressed with his defeat of Joey Ten Berge. A win is a win though, and it is quite often the hardest task to get through round 1. I have had a couple of additional bets in the Championship, with buys of the emerging Dutch talent Kist at 3 and then again 11 on the Sporting Index outright, and a covering bet on Scotty Waites. Its a big day for me on Wednesday when all my players battle to get into the quarter finals.

I have also had a bet on Charles Schwartzel for the European tour golf on the spread betting index, its not a cheap buy, but Schwartzel has easly won this event for the past couple of years and hopefully will continue the run of winning golf favourites.

That's it for now, although I might have some more bets tomorrow, specifically on the Masters snooker, and I'll be having a look at the weekends big horse races. I love the big handicap hurdles, and there's a couple to look at this weekend.

BDO Darts 2012

2012-01-06T08:22:00.000-08:00

After the excitement of Sky backed PDC World Championships won suberbly by Adrian Jackpot Lewis its now the turn of the BDO boys to strutt their stuff at the iconic Lakeside Country Club. Maybe the BDO lacks the publicity, money, and depth of high class players but it is the original darts world championships and with the likes of Adams, Winstanley, Hankey, and Waites it does have a number of high class players who in my opinion are more than a match for their PDC counterparts.

This year has been dominated by Scotty Waites, who has been the class player on the BDO circuit in 2011 winning the World Masters at Hull, the British Open, and most recently the prestigious Zuiderduin Masters in Holland where he beat Adams in the semi, and Fitton in a high class final with an average of just under 100. A previous Grand Slam of Darts winner, Waites is all class. However, Scotty has yet to get beyond the quarters at Lakeside and faces a potentially tricky second round tie against the Ted Hankey, making odds of around 7/2 look very skinny to me.

Martin Adams has won the last 2 BDO worlds, and has a reasonably easy draw, but I just feel that his recent move into the administration side of the BDO might take an edge off his focus, and also that Waites and Winstanley may have improved past the consistent Wolfie.

My pick is Dean Winstanley marginally over fellow Yorkshireman Waites. 2010 was the breakthrough year for 'Over the top' with wins in the English, Belgium, and English Open, and in 2011 Dean followed this up by making the final of the Worlds, where he lost narrowly to Wolfie, and World Masters where he was defeated by Scotty Waites. Most recently Winstanley was very impressive at the dual code Grand Slam of Darts, where he topped his qualifying group before going out to an inform Mark Walsh in the last 16.

Its a marginal call but I am going for Winstanley, who has a relatively easy passage into the quarter finals, and unlike Scotty 2 Hotty has good previous lakeside form. You can get a little bit of 11/2, but I'd suggest buying Winstanley at 22 with Sporting Index on their outright index, which only results in a 1 point loss should Over the Top lose in the semi fina

2012

2012-01-05T09:05:00.000-08:00

Bit later than I said but I am back with an New Years Update. Life's pretty much the same for me although I am kind of getting used to my job at the Cash Centre and the shift work.

In punting terms I haven't stopped completely, and as usual had a mixed bag of results over the last month. Horse racing has been very limited although I did manage to bad the e/w part of a 5 horse accumulator over the festive period, just missing out on a monster payout by the second places of Giles Cross and Rock on Ruby. Wins for these 2 would have given me a monster £5k payout and enough cash to fund a years worth of punting.

I had a nightmare at the UK snooker with failures for all of my players, including Mark Selby, who was very disappointing, I certainly wasn't laughing as The Jester stumbled to a second round defeat. I really should have gone with Judd Trump, who to me looks likely to dominate the sport for years. This guy is a very special player and someone who I won't be missing out on again. The next big event is the Masters in mid January.

Darts was a real mixed bag, as despite 2 losing big bets on Phil Taylor, I managed to back Jackpot Lewis, who after some early scares stormed to an easy win against Hamilton in the Final. I for one will never forget that semi final win against James Wade.

Well, that's it for now, but I will be updating the blog as the year progresses with my thoughts and muses.

Taking a break

2011-11-28T00:59:00.000-08:00

There's lots of stuff going on in my life at the moment so therefore I have decided to take a break from punting until at the earliest 2012.

I will be back, no worries about that, but the next posting will be on 1st January 2012.

Update

2011-11-23T09:13:00.000-08:00

Looking at this weekends action, there appears to be very little of interest. Therefore I'll probably update next Monday.

I think that every now and again its good to have a little time off punting, to given time for reflection and have a rest from the mental stress of punting. I will be refreshed then for the future weeks and months.

Anyway, enjoy your punting, and I will update next week.

Weekend Review

2011-11-21T12:00:00.000-08:00

Not the best of weekends on the punting front, with the Rugby League being particularly disappointing. England unfortunately saved their worst performance for the final, and despite holding their own for half an hour were comprehensively beaten. That's it for the Rugby League now until 2012, when hopefully the season will start like this one ended (except Saturdays match of course).

I also got the horse racing completely wrong as well, as a revitalised Kauto Star defeated Long Run in a thrilling Betfair chase. Weird Al was never really travelling, and Diamond Harry ran well for a while before finishing a very tired third. Sometimes you just have to put your hands up and admit that your wrong and i just couldn't see Kauto returning to form.

Scottish Football bets had a great weekend with a nice haul of 5 winners, with 100% winners for the service.

The darts however, was a real success story for me, as Phil Taylor absolutely romped to an easy win in the final against my each way pick Gary Anderson. The Power looks better than ever, and averages of 109 are far too much for any other player on the planet. For the life of me, I just cannot understand why the bookies keep offering odds against for Taylor in the TV events. This being the case I acted quickly and took 6/5 for the The Power to win the Worlds, which was quickly cut to Evens by tonight. Even 'Evens' looks great to me for Taylor for the Worlds, who surely cannot be beaten unless he gets an injury. I'll be looking to press up on this bet each week until the tournament, but will also look for an each way bet in the opposite side of the draw to Taylor as well.

£100 win Phil Taylor @ 6/5 - World PDC Darts

This week I'll be looking at the Hennessy Gold Cup, as well as the BDO darts World Championships.

18th November 2011

2011-11-18T01:02:00.000-08:00

Not having the best of runs this week, Tiger Woods lost his second match at the Presidents Cup whilst James Wade was hammered by a brutal Gary Anderson at the Grand Slam. On the positive side of things, Anderson is now looking to be in real top class form and must be fancied to at least land my each way bet by reaching the final. Looking at the tournament now, as I see it, there's only 3 possible winners, Taylor most likely, with Lewis and Anderson big dangers. I'll probably have a saver if Taylor faces Lewis.

Today I'll go through the racing cards for the weekend, and I have already seen a horse at massive prices for the fixed brushed hurdle at Haydock which looks interesting.

I'll try and update Saturday morning.

Thursday 17th November 2011

2011-11-17T03:00:00.000-08:00

Not so good news overnight from Australia as Tiger Woods lost his first match in the Presidents Cup in partnership with Steve Stricker and now looks very unlikely to win the top point scorer bet. Ironically this pair were the only Americans to lose. In hindsight, I probably shouldn't have made the bet, as individual markets in golf team events are quite reliant on the number of matches players play, and how their partner plays. Its a lesson learnt though.

The darts went well last night though, as Phil Taylor beat King and duly progressed to the knockout stages of the Grand Slam. The Power plays Wes Newton next, before likely matches against Nicholson and then Lewis. It looks good so far though. In tonight's matches , my outright each way bet Gary Anderson players the ever consistent and tough to beat James Wade. I marked this up as a take your pick match and therefore must have a bet at the 6/5 on offer for a Wade win. I just feel that The Machines better finishing will prove decisive.

£50 win James Wade to beat Gary Anderson @ 6/5.

I have recently touched on using trading or in play betting as an addition to my punting armoury and to help with research I have joined a free service run by Peter Nordsted. I am mainly looking for low risk trading opportunities. I am at a very early stage with this, and will initially paper trade, but I'll keep you informed on how things progress.

Wednesday 16th November 2011

2011-11-16T02:16:00.000-08:00

This week seems to be lasting for ever, I've only been a work 2 days, but it seems so much longer than that. You really shouldn't wish you life away, but I cannot wait for the weekend.

After my recent success on Rugby League betting, I've decided to hopefully end the season in style by finishing with a winner, which is England(+12) against Australia in Saturdays 4 Nationals final at Elland Road, Leeds. England have moulded together the best team in the last 10-20 years, with star players Sam Tompkins (the best player I have seen in a generation), Kiwi convert Rangi Chase, and genuine world class forwards in Ellis, Morley, Graham, and James Roby. In the group match Australia did win by 16 points, but this flattered the green and golds, who were the recipient of some rather dubious refereeing decisions at crucial times during the match. I feel that last Saturdays convincing win against New Zealand was a massive boost to the confidence of England, and at worst will result in a very tight match against the admittedly powerful Australians. I might yet go for a bet on England to win the match off scratch, but for now I'll stick to a bet on the handicap.

£50 win England (+12) v Australia @ 10/11

Good news in the darts last night as Gary Anderson qualified for the knockout stage with a much improved performance, although he now has to face the mighty James Wade in the last 16. Anderson looked much happier than before his second group match and hopefully he has sorted his head out and can begin to show his awesome scoring power. Its a tough ask to beat Wade, but if Anderson can get the job done, he'll be nailed on for the final, and the each way returns which I seek.

Nothing much extra on horse racing at the moment, but hopefully there should be some opportunities at Ascot and Haydock on Saturday.

Tuesday 15th November 2011

2011-11-15T03:01:00.000-08:00

It's been really great doing my research and has given me real hope that eventually I can make the transition to becoming a pro punter. To earn your wages doing something you really love, would be a dream come true for anyone. There's a long way to go though, and I am taking a long term view, which means continuing the paid employment for the foreseeable future. One additional to my betting armoury which I am currently looking at, is trading, but of course I need to sort out my current situation first.

Enough of that and onto some action today. Looking at this Saturdays Betfair Cup which features the comeback of Gold Cup winner Long Run I have a couple of decent priced fancies to overturn the favourite. Henderson's stable hasn't been in great form this season, and I doubt whether Long Run will be fully tuned up, with King George and Gold Cup double the main objective of the season, therefore I wouldn't touch the odds on with someone else's barge pole. The 2 I like, are Diamond Harry, who goes superbly well when fresh and is unbeaten at Haydock, and the massively impressive winner of the Charlie Hall Weird Al. Weird Al travelled like a top class animal in the Charlie Hall, and another performance like that would be enough for him to go very close. Most of my horse racing bets coming from visual impressions, but also on current form, and Weird Al ticks the boxes on both these counts.

£60 win Weird Al 7/1, £40 win Diamond Harry 7/1 - Betfair Chase

This week there is also a bet on the Presidents Cup Golf, and its for Tiger Woods to be the Top USA scorer at 6/1. Already acclimatised in Australia after his third place in the Australian Open, Tiger looks to be on the road to recovery, and given his recent good form in team events, I think that its worth having a go at a nice price.

£50 win Tiger Woods 6/1 - Top USA points scorer - Presidents Cup

Well that's it for today on a pretty busy day for a Tuesday. Hope that everyone has a great day.

Weekend Review

2011-11-14T00:47:00.000-08:00

It's been a very hectic weekend hence the lack of postings, and also the reason that I am not really any further forward in sorting out my new professional betting plan. There's still loads to do, like drafting out a business plan, but I am optimistic that I can have everything in place by the start of December.

The weekends punting went ok, with the highlight being the easy win by Great Endeavour at an early 14/1. I was very hopeful after the way that the Pipe stable had gone on the first day of the meeting, and wasn't to be disappointed as Timmy Murphy produced a great ride to get the job done. The Greatwood Hurdle was also a decent result for me, as a fourth place for Moon Dice at an ante post 16/1, made it a profitable result.

I didn't make any more new bets on the weekend mainly due to being out most of the time. However those listed last week showed a slight loss. A terrible blunder ruined Crackaway Jack's chances at Cheltenham, but the money was landed when England easily beat New Zealand in the Rugby League. I just wish I'd been a bit braver and taken England off scratch which was around the 6/4 mark. My Rugby League tips have been doing really well over the past couple of months, and I'll be going through the final during the week to see if there are any potential bets.

It's been an interesting couple of days at the darts, incredibly Waites and Barney have already been dumped out of the tournament, and it doesn't look too good for my each way pick Gary Anderson who needs to win his final match against Wayne Jones to progress to the knockout stage. However, it is business as usual so far for The Power, with James Wade now looking like one of the very few dangers to my maximum bet.

Its a busy week for me in life and in punting, but I'll try to find time to progress my research and on potential bets for the weekend.

Thursday 10th November

2011-11-10T10:34:00.001-08:00

Having looked through the Grand Slam Darts again I have decided to add to my Phil Taylor bet with a £20 e/w bet on the flying Scott Garry Anderson at 6/1. Although In the harder side of the draw, Anderson is the class act, and really should have too much for an out of form Barney, and James Wade who has been struggling with a shoulder injury.Scotty 'too hotty' Waites is the big danger, but perhaps after reaching the last 2 finals of this event the pressure of expectation may prove too much, as it has done so frequently at the Lakeside BDO World Champs where Scotty has failed to deliver.

Looking at the opening day of Cheltenham's Open meeting I have identified just the one bet so far. It's a £50 win bet on Crackaway Jack at 4/1. Formally a high class hurdler I am banking on a move to the Paul Nicholls stable revitalising this animal. It's a chancy bet but this could look a steal at around 2pm as this horse could be absolutely thrown in. I missed the early 9/2 but there is still plenty of 4/1 around which looks good against exposed rivals.

Another bet is a £50 win bet on England (+4) to beat New Zealand in Saturdays Rugby League International. As I mentioned yesterday, England have looked far more impressive than the Kiwis, and in receipt of 4 points on the handicap line, can even suffer a narrow defeat and still win me the money.

The weekend looks very exciting with plenty of betting opportunities on Saturday and Sunday. I like the look of quite a few horses at Cheltenham including a really good looking bet for Sunday if all goes well, in the race which last year I backed Grands Crus at double figure prices.

Wednesday 9th November 2011

2011-11-09T08:12:00.000-08:00

A bit quiet at the moment, and research a little slower due to my unfortunate return to work. It's really not acceptable that work should get in the way of my punting!.

As well as the laborious but necessary task of totally changing the way I organise my punting, I have been looking through the draw for the BDO World Darts Championship, and have started to look though the cards for this weekends Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham. Plenty of work is required, but hopefully with a profitable outcome.

One bet that I am quite keen on at this stage is for England to beat New Zealand in the 4 Nations Rugby League Championship's on Saturday at the KC Stadium. To my mind England have looked good so far with Sam Tompkins et al, running Australia very close, and I even think that the Aussies could have been beaten with a little bit of luck via refereeing decisions. New Zealand on the other hand haven't looked good and although beating Wales easily were not impressive . On pure current form, England should be favourites rather than New Zealand and therefore at this stage I will probably will be having a bet.

I am having a look at the golf, but I am not sure if I'll be having a bet.

8th November 2011

2011-11-08T02:37:00.000-08:00

Still working hard to get my betting project on track, part of which involves creating a business plan. One of the main ideas behind this new approach is to treat the punting as a proper business and do things properly, rather than in the casual way I've been doing it in the past. There's lots to learn though, and its going to take a good few months before hopefully I have professional plans in place.

Anyway, there's one bet for the project today, and its a maximum bet. Its a bit of an obvious one, but its £100 to win on Phil Taylor in the Grand Slam of Darts at a general 5/4. Taylor has been in sparkling form winning the last 3 televised events in pretty comfortable style, has won 3 out of the 4 SLOD's staged, and if that wasn't enough to encourage a lumpy bet The Power is in the easy side of the draw, with only Lewis and perhaps Wes Newton to really worry about. The other side of the draw is a real punters minefield featuring Anderson, Wade, Barney, and class acts from the BDO in the shape of Waites, O'Shea, and Winstanley. The group matches are first to 5 legs, which is a tiny worry, but after that the matches are longer, which will suit The Power right down to the ground. I think that Taylor should be odds on, and hence the maximum bet at 5/4.

I usually look for a bit of each way value as well, but it looks way to difficult in the other side of the draw, and therefore I'll just keep to the Taylor bet, although if I had a gun to my head I'd have small each way bets on Waites and Winstanley.

As I've said there's no more ante post punting on horse racing, so although I am continuing to work on the Paddy Power cards, there are no more bets today.

New Project

2011-11-07T07:04:00.000-08:00

Well after years of messing around, my new project involves starting with a betting bank of £5000, betting at £20 per point, with stakes from 1pt to a 5pt maximum. I'll be recording each bet including detailing the reasons for the bet and all my bets and the running total will be updated on the blog. By adopting this professional approach for the next 3 months, we should get a good idea of whether I am ever going to make it at this game. This really is a last chance saloon approach because once this money is lost, its game over. Hopefully though a more disciplined professional approach will bear some fruit.

As part of this project I'll also be going through any psychological measures, which will be helping me improve. One thing that I have already decided to implement is not to back ante post since several recent picks haven't made the race, and in fact on the day of the race, many of the picks weren't even that much shorter in the betting, for instance Willing Foe on Saturday was much bigger on Friday night. As before I will be concentrating on the better quality racing, mainly studying from, race conditions etc.

Any suggestions to help with this project would be most appreciated, in what should be a very interesting period up to the New Year.

Weekend Review

2011-11-07T01:12:00.000-08:00

This weekend was my last full punting of the year, although I do have a few ante post bets for the Paddy Power weekend and also the Grand Slam of Darts which starts this coming Saturday. But more about that later.

To be honest it was a very disappointing weekend, my selections in the November Handicap didn't show any returns, the best being a second for Willing Foe, who although second, was no good for me as I'd backed him win only. The Breeders Cup was also very poor with just 2 relatively short priced winners for Nick Mordin, although there were a couple of bigger priced selections who hit the cross bar. After 2 poor Breeders Cups, I have learnt my lesson, and will never back at this meeting again, which at least is all part of the learning process.

The golf was also poor, as Scott fell away after a great start, not helped in my opinion by the comments about Tiger Woods by his caddie Steve Williams. This must have been a distraction, although such was the outstanding play by Martin Kaymer, that place money was probably the best that I could have got to be honest. It's now the end of the golf season, so there will be nothing more until 2012. Golf has been mixed in 2011, and I'll have a look through my results to see what kind of strategy to adopt next year, maybe looking at the shorter end of the market, which have brought me a few wins this year.

I'll post later today about the future, but I do still have a few outstanding bets for the next couple of weeks which I might as well let you know about today. They are:

Paddy Power Gold Cup - Mon Perrain, Great Endeavour, The Giant Bolster

Greatwood Hurdle - Moon Dice, A Media Luz

Grand Slam of Darts - Phil Taylor, Waites, Barney.

I'll be back later with a posting about my punting future.

Friday 4th November 2011

2011-11-04T03:04:00.000-07:00

I am off work again today so have had the opportunity to post another entry before the weekend. The golf has gone reasonable overnight with Scott just one shot behind the lead, and Paul Casey right up amongst the contenders. It makes for a very interesting weekend with hopefully some nice returns early on Sunday morning. The weekends punting is exclusively concentrated on the Breeders Cup and the November Handicap. In the November Handicap I have bets on Willing Foe (8/1), Pekan Star (e/w at 12/1), and a small each way bet on The Betchworth Kid at 20/1. Its a very hard race to call, but I am fairly hopeful of a decent result. In the Breeders Cup I have gone for the picks of Nick Mordin in the Racing Post Weekender, and although there are too many bets to mention, main wagers are on Sarafina, Creative Cause, Announce, Plum Pretty, Big Drama, and Switch. I also have had a bet on Uncle Mo for the Breeders Cup Classic, following some gallops information from a friend who lives in the USA. Last years Cup meeting was terrible, so surely I am due a decent one in 2011, although alas gambling doesn't always work out like that.

I might have a limited number of bets at the Paddy Power meeting next weekend, but the main objective during November is to re-invent myself as a punter casting aside the bad habits which have cost me thousands of pounds during the years. I am aiming to retrain my brain to go against its natural urges and adopt a disciplined approach. To help me with this herculean task I am working through the excellent Sports Betting to Win book by Steve Ward, which focuses on the psychological tools which are required to win at punting. I know that I need to keep good records, not bet for interest's sake, have betting banks, and not chase losses, but its about achieving a new outlook which will resist these destructive influences. Talk is cheap though, its punting new approaches into action which really matter.
It may be that I'll have to take a few months off punting, until I can getting betting banks, and a disciplined approach sorted out.

This to my mind really is a make or break situation, and if I cannot change, it will quite probably be the end of my punting. I'll keep you informed of how things are progressing, and how I will be integrating these plans into my punting.

Wednesday 2nd November 2011

2011-11-02T04:04:00.000-07:00

Poor results yesterday, although the Twiston Davies horse at least manage to save the each way money. Zaarito ran poorly, and what can you say about Captain Chris, looked sure to win at the last only to fall.

Today has been very busy with most of the bets placed for this weekends festivities. I have followed Keith Elliott's golf bets for the World Championship event in Shanghai, as well as getting all my bets placed for the Breeders Cup. I have also had a good look at Saturdays November Handicap and come up with 3 selections. In the last big flat handicap of the year I am on the Garry Nutting tipped Pekan Star at 12/1, the eye catching godolphin owned Willing Foe at 8/1, and course specialist The Betchworth Kid at 20/1. It looks very trappy this weekend and therefore I definitely won't be having any further bets on the horse racing except these. In the Breeders Cup I have gone with the selections of Nick Mordin in the Racing Post Weekender, Nick usually knows his business in these big international meetings, and hopefully will deliver some great results.

In the golf I like the look of Lee Westwood, who finished strongly in last weeks big money event in Shanghai, and is priced up at a general 9/1, with a small each way bet on my old favourite Simon Dyson, who has decent form in the far east events as well as proven winning form this season. Dyson looks massive to me at 50/1. I have also backed Elliott's selections, and I'll let you know who these are once the players tee off early tomorrow.

As I alluded to yesterday my main focus at the current time is to improve the mental side of my betting, and I expect a few books to arrive on this subject later this week. I'll be looking to pick up the best bits with a view to introducing better strategies in my punting which most importantly will include better discipline. Therefore it may be a few days before my next update when hopefully I will have made some decent progress.

Tuesday 1st November 2011

2011-11-01T04:07:00.000-07:00

I always manage to wake up without an alarm for the big sporting events and so it proved to be that way for the Melbourne Cup. Alas the best I could manage was a third place for Lucas Cranach, who hit the front inside the last only to be swamped by a couple of rivals. Unfortunately I also woke up with a terrible soar throat and now face the prospect of a cold for the next few days as well, and its back to work today as well, although only for a couple of days this week.

Today I have had some small bets on the good looking Exeter card, the Twiston Davies stable is on absolute fire and therefore I have had 2 small each way bets on Rockability and Hollow Blue Sky. Interestingly you can read a daily blog from Twiston Davies on his daily thoughts on his runs, and he did seem fairly hopeful of good runs for these 2 today. Also I have chanced a small bet on the Irish trained Zaarito in the Haldon Gold Cup. This one isn't the most reliable jumper but has plenty of class and today maybe the day when Zaarito can make use of a decent handicap mark. I might decide to save on Captain Chris as well, who looked a monster especially at Punchestown last season.

The main idea I am looking at now, and I have touched upon in the past is trying to improve the discipline of my punting. Its all too easy for me to throw all my good work away by having a few loose and impulsive bets, and if I'm to be a success this really has to be eliminated. I have improved to some extent by keeping records (although I do need to update the last week), but still the old weaknesses exist, with poor betting especially when I am on the early shift and can watch the racing in the afternoon. I have ordered a few books from amazon on the psychology of betting/trading, and will be doing alot of introspective thinking on the issue. I know that I can make this game pay, but I do have to get the mental and psychological side right, but I am ever going to make any profits. Maybe this journey will help with my faults, or maybe it might be the end, we will just have to wait and see.

I'll be back tomorrow, with hopefully good news.

The Melbourne Cup

2011-10-31T08:20:00.000-07:00

A few years ago I actually went to Flemmington Park to watch the racing, although it wasn't the Cup day. Great track, although I couldn't buy a winner that day.

Tomorrows race looks very tricky, however, I think that I have identified a few horses with decent chances. My 3 against the field are, At First Sight (12/1), Lucas Cranach (11/1), and Niwot (12/1). Should be a cracker with hopefully a positive outcome.

Weekend Review

2011-10-31T04:09:00.000-07:00

Monday again, and time to reflect on a very eventful and exciting weekend. Blackpool was great but very tiring, and its now time to have a few healthy days. I am only working Tuesday and Wednesday this week, which will give me plenty of time to study and research for a busy weekends action which includes the Breeders Cup.

As usual results were mixed, and although I haven't added up the numbers I get the feeling that it was profitable. It was very disappointing to see Diamond Harry withdrawn from the Charlie Hall, and A Media Luz just didn't get home in the big Ascot Hurdle race. But positively I followed Pricewise and collected a lovely 16/1 winner with Exmoor Ranger.

It was another great week from Keith Elliott as Sergio Garcia landed me a big win bet by showing his class and getting the job done at Valdarama. Superb stuff by a re-born Sergio, and a monster payout for me. This week looks good as well with the World Championship Golf event in Shanghai.

It was also great to see Scottish Football Bets return to form with 3 winners from 4 selections, after a few poor weeks.

Today I'm looking through the Melbourne Cup field, and maybe back with some tips later in the day.

Friday 28th October 2011

2011-10-28T01:40:00.000-07:00

Time for a last posting before my trip commences later this morning. Looking at the William Hill Handicap Hurdle at Ascot again I am really keen on A Media Luz, and suggest that you lump on at 11/1. Nicky Henderson thinks that this mare is potentially top class and comes into this weekends race with a really good handicap mark. The only slight worry is that A Media Luz is sometimes a little keen, and hence is probably an all or nothing bet. Therefore back it, win only, but go in big, because I feel that this well handicapped beast could be potentially thrown in at the weights.

The golf seems to be going fairly well so far, my own bets in Shanghai, Oosterhausen and Noh are well in contention, and hopefully Garcia who has a nice early tee time today, will kick on today.

That's defintely it for now, with an update on Monday.