Montreal Stanley Cup 2013

Possible Compliance Buy-Out Loophole

2013-01-16T00:00:00.001-05:00

Earlier today, TSN announced that the NHL and NHLPA agreed to accelerated compliance buy-outs. The important excerpts are the following:

"Teams are now eligible to exercise an "accelerated compliance buyout" on one player with a salary cap hit of $3 million or more before the regular season begins on Saturday."

"In order for a player to be bought out this week, he still must clear waivers first."

"Team will take the full cap hit on such players this season, less the $900,000 for not burying the player in the minors, but suffer no cap hit next season or beyond."

"Teams would pay out 100 per cent of a player's actual salary this year and two-thirds or one-third (as applicable) over twice the remaining term of the contract and the player is free to sign elsewhere."

"However, there's no actual benefit to the teams to take this plan of action other than as a favour to the player to perhaps allow them to sign with another team right away." (or is there?)

I originally intended to write about this subject once the full new CBA was available online, but this new development forced me to write about it today before it becomes irrelevant (or materializes).

Here is the paragraph concerning compliance buy-outs from the summary of terms of the NHL/NHLPA proposed CBA that is available online.

"During the Ordinary Course “Buy-Out” periods following the 2012/13 season and 2013/14 season, in addition to any other Ordinary Course “Buy-Outs” a Club may elect to effectuate pursuant to Paragraph 13 of the SPC, Clubs may elect to terminate and “buy-out” the already existing SPCs of up to two (2) additional Players (in the aggregate over the two (2) years) on a Compliance basis (a “Compliance Buy-Out”). Such Compliance Buy-Out(s) would be effectuated on the same terms as are set forth in Paragraph 13 of the SPC, except that the amounts paid under such “buy-out(s)” will not be charged against the Club’s Cap in any of the years in which the payments are made to the Player. Amounts paid under such Compliance Buy-Out(s) will, however, be counted against the Players’ Share during any League Year in which the “buy-out” payments are made. A Player that has been bought out under these Compliance Buy-Out provisions shall be prohibited from re-joining the Club that bought him out (via re-signing, Assignment, Waiver claim or otherwise) for the duration of the 2013/14 League Year (if the Player was bought out in 2013) and the 2014/15 League Year (if the Player was bought out in 2014)."

The intent to prohibit a team from re-acquiring the player it has bought out via the compliance buy-out is clear. However, there is a way around this, because the criteria used is "the Club that bought him out" instead of say "the Club that had the player on its payroll for the 2011-2012 season". All you need to go around this is two teams with two similar "bad contracts" that they want to buy out with the accelerated compliance buy-out. By trading two similar bad contracts, placing them on unconditional waivers and than using the accelerated compliance buy-out, the original team would be able to re-sign its own player to more favorable terms and possibly enjoying very good value on the new contract for the 2013-2014 season if it has at least a two-year term. Since these "bad contracts" have very bad value in a cap system, they are very unlikely to be reclaimed on waivers by any team (teams in big markets that could be tempted by such contracts do not have the cap space necessary this season to keep them while teams in small markets do not have the internal budget to afford them).

Using an accelerated compliance buy-out now is also a better option than using a simple compliance buy out this summer if you want the player with the bad contract to play for your team this season, because if that player suffers from a long-term injury during the season, the team will not be able to buy him out during the summer buy-out period (which could have catastrophic consequences for the 2013-2014 season when the cap goes down to 64.3M). One thing that could however mitigate this risk to abuse the LTIR reserve next season like the Flyers are currently doing with Chris Pronger.

Let's take as an example the two contracts that are currently regarded as the worst: Scott Gomez's and Wade Redden's. The terms of both are extremely similar: both have two seasons and 10M$ left to pay (without taking into consideration the current prorated season). A Scott Gomez-Wade Redden trade would imply that the Montreal Canadiens use one of their 2 compliance buy-outs on Wade Redden's contract thus giving the New York Rangers (and the 28 other teams) the chance to re-sign him to more favorable terms and imply the New Rangers use one of their 2 compliance buy-outs on Scott Gomez's contract thus giving the Montreal Canadiens (and the 28 other teams) the chance to re-sign him.

Accelerated compliance buy-out payments (first year prorated for a 48-game season, payments are outside the cap, but not outside the players' share)

Scott Gomez: Y1:3.220M, Y2:1.500M, Y3:1.500M, TOT: 6.220M

Wade Redden: Y1:2.927M, Y2:1.667M, Y3:1.667M TOT: 6.260M

A total amount difference of around 41K (which is further reduced by the time value of money) that the Montreal Canadiens would have to pay in extra for buying out Wade Redden instead of Scott Gomez (which is peanuts for a big market team).

By being bought out at the start of the season with an accelerated compliance buy-out, Scott Gomez loses 1.5M on the last year of his contract (plus one year of interest on the year-3 1.500M). If Scott Gomez subsequently signs a contracts that pays him 1.500M over, let's say, the next two years, the total amount of money received (excluding the one-year interest lost) by Gomez would be the same as if he fulfilled his original contract and with the same opportunity cost (ie he will be able to re-sign elsewhere only after the 2013-2014 season). Because the 2012-2013 season has only 48 games, such a "complimentary total-money-received-neutral contract" would have a 1.016M caphit over two years (with only 1.500M actually paid). If the Montreal Canadiens hand out such a contract to Scott Gomez, the total impact on the cap for the 2012-2013 season is a loss of 0.116M in cap space and a gain of 6.342M in cap space for the 2013-2014 season (when cap space will be a most) versus the scenario of not buying him out.

Simarly for Wade Redden, by being bought out at the start of the season with an accelerated compliance buy-out, Redden loses 1.667M on the last year of his contract (plus one year of interest on the year-3 1.667M). If Wade Redden subsequently signs a contracts that pays him 1.667M over the next two years, the total amount of money received (excluding the one-year interest lost) by him would be the same as if he fulfilled his original contract and with the same opportunity cost (ie he will be able to re-sign elsewhere only after the 2013-2014 season). Because the 2012-2013 season has only 48 games, such a "complimentary total-money-received-neutral contract" would have a 1.128M caphit over two years (with only 1.667M actually paid). If the New York Rangers hand out such a contract to Wade Redden, the total impact on the cap for the 2012-2013 season is a loss of 0.228M in cap space and a gain of 5.372M (when cap space will be a most) versus the scenario of not buying him out.

The underlying assumption is that the bought-out players may be psychologically inclined to sign break-even contracts (see the recent Colby Armstrong contract). It is interesting to note that if Gomez (Redden) signs one two-year or two one-year contracts with actual pay higher than 1.500M (1.667M), they will make more money that way (with higher risk) than if they simply fulfilled their original contract.

The inherent risk to this strategy is that 28 other teams can also offer a new contract to the bought out players (since they are becoming UFA after being bought out) and they are potentially in a better position to do so, because they are not carrying the original cap hit of the player with the bad contract (minus 900K) this season on their cap. By making the original trade (Gomez for Redden), the Rangers and Habs are also tipping off the 28 other GMs in the league that they have the intention to re-sign their own player thus making it harder to re-sign them to friendly terms.

However, the fact that NHLPA and the NHL still seem able to add/change the rules of the new CBA (see new accelerated buy-outs) probably means that the wording of this clause could still change and fix this loophole.

Update (Jan-16): Both Scott Gomez and Wade Redden have been placed on unconditional waivers today by their respective teams and no trade has taken place. They are thus not in the future plans of their respective team and there is no possible way that the potential loophole discussed above will be used.

The Markov Conspiracy

2012-11-30T00:10:00.001-05:00

One of the question marks for next season is Andrei Markov. Will he remain the Habs' quarterback at the blue line like he used to be a few years ago? Will he be able to generate the same level of offense? The general feeling seems rather pessimistic with some even suggesting that Markov is finished. His meager 3 points and minus-4 in 13 games at the end of last season were the basis of this speculation last summer. Now, his slow start in the KHL seems to corroborate the feeling that he won't be able to put anything near the numbers he used to just three years ago when he was considered one of the Top-5 defensemen in the league.

As of November 29, 2012

Last night, Markov was back from a minor rib injury and played with Vityaz which won 4:3 in over time over Metallurg Mg (Malkin's team). Markov finished the game with the following stats according to the KHL:

24:38 TOI on 26 shifts, 0 Pts, 0 SOG, +1

Or did he? After simply watching the highlights of the game on the official KHL youtube channel, I came, to my surprise, to a different conclusion.

At 4:18 begins the sequence that leads to Vityaz's 3rd goal of the game. The left point defenseman(whose number is not visible) makes a pass to the right point defenseman (#36 Yakov Seleznyov) who takes a one-timer shot at the net which is tipped by a forward (#69 Nikita Dvurechensky) for the goal.

A few seconds later at 4:27, for a split second you can identify that the left point defenseman was indeed Andrei Markov.

However, no point was credited to Markov for that goal. Unlike the NHL, the KHL does not automatically credit secondary assists to the third last teammate that has touched the puck. You need to "be part of the play" to earn it. I could however not find an official definition that differentiates an "unearned secondary assist" from an "earned" one. Even if I personally believe that Markov was a contributor on that play, whether he deserves an assist or not on that last goal is debatable. There is however absolutely no doubt possible that he did deserve one on the next goal.

At 5:28 is the begging of the play that leads to the 4th winning goal in over time on a 4vs3: #94 Alexander Korolyuk makes a pass to #27 Andrei Markov who makes another pass at #2 Brian Fahey who shoots and scores. On the official KHL scoresheet, Fahey was rewarded with the goal and Korolyuk with an assist. However, Markov received no assist. Find the error.

***

This demonstration leads to the following: Was this a one-time fluke from the KHL? or are Markov's statistics systematically not adequately reported? Further research (such as reviewing all past Vityaz highlights) would be necessary to answer that question. Also, whom would benefit from such systematic underreporting? :)

Path to the Stanley Cup Part I - A New Identity?

2012-07-23T04:41:00.000-04:00

I now begin a series of 7 articles that will take a look at the Montreal Canadiens' eventual path to the Stanley Cup.

The first quinquennial plan (2003-2004 to 2008-2009) established by Bob Gainey was a failure. The Montreal Canadiens didn't win the Stanley Cup during that period. However, the team did have some success. In 2007-2008, they finished first in the eastern conference with 104 points and went to the second round of the playoffs losing to the Flyers. The 2008-2009 season however was more difficult. Bob Gainey seeing that the window of opportunity of his plan was closing down that season made some panicking moves like firing of coach Guy Carbonneau and replacing him behind the bench. Without Markov and Lang for the playoffs and an injured Bouillon, the Habs folded to the Bruins in 4 games. The window of opportunity was now closed: the contracts of Montreal's core players were now up (Koivu, Kovalev, Lang, Brisebois, Schneider and Brisebois) and were now too old to be re-signed for multiple years. It was time to start anew and Gainey thus announced another quinquennial plan. This news was received with disdain: "Not another five years!" This new plan changed the face of the franchise with the arrival of six new veteran faces with different contract length(years): Gomez(5), Gionta(5), Cammalleri(5), Moen(3), Spacek(3) and Gill(2).

Now, 3 years have passed and we should theoretically be at the beginning of the two-year window of opportunity for a shot at the Stanley Cup. However, much has changed in the last season. Cammalleri, Spacek and Gill where all traded during the season, the Habs finished last in the eastern conference, Pierre Gauthier (who succeeded Bob Gainey as general manager) was fired by owner and president Geoff Molson and Bob Gainey decided to resign after learning the news. Since the group presided by the Molson family acquired the Montreal Canadiens franchise, Geoff Molson has exhibited multiple signs of wanting to meddle with the operation affairs of the club. One such sign of meddling was at the 2011 entry draft when Geoff Molson wanted the Montreal Canadiens to draft Olivier Archambault (a Quebecer) contrary to the scouting staff's will. With Gauthier and Gainey now out, the second quinquennial plan now seems officially over, or is it?

Geoff Molson has made public statements saying that he wants to change the identity of club by bringing "a winning attitude", make his team harder to play against and bring more grit. This seems contrary to the image/plan of the second quinquennial plan that brought in the 3 "smurfs". However, in the last 2 years of Gainey's first quinquennial plan, the Habs were one of the most physical team in the league. This indicates to me that Gainey values physical play. And if we assume that the second quinquennial plan was a logical follow-up to the first one, physical play and the "hard to play against mentality" were probably always a part of the plan (even if it would only materialize at a later stage). Let's not forget that Gauthier/Gainey were the ones that brought in Moen, Cole, Emelin and Bourque. (It could however be argued that Molson asked specifically for these moves as they happened only in the last year). In the last season, Montreal has jumped from the 26th to the 17th position in hits. Marc Bergevin has followed the same route by adding Prust, Armstrong and Bouillon, all physical players. It should be emphasized that it is much less expensive and easier to add bottom6 gritty players to a line-up than top6 skilled players. The big (overpaid) contracts that were given in 2009 now offer good market value relative to the new cap ceiling. For example, when Mike Cammalleri was signed in the 2009 summer, his contract was accounting for 10.56% of the then available cap space (6M / 56.8M), but will only be accounting for 8.55% next season (6M / 70.2M). This explains in part why Calgary did not re-sign him at that price in 2009, but were now willing to trade for him this season.

Identifying the identity of a team

To identify the identity of a team, you first need to identify the identity of the its players individually. However, not all players should be assigned the same weight. Players with a bigger role on the team should be put more weight on. Players with longer contracts or contracts that are expected to be extended (particularly for young players who are RFA) should also be weighted more heavily. Thus, the veteran defensemen Gill/Spacek with their 2/3 year contracts where never expected to be part of the team at the end of the 5-year plan. On the other hand, players that are drafted by the team are expected to play with the team until they have at least 7 years of professional experience or are at least 27 years old. The drafting choices of the Habs have thus much more impact on its identity than the signing of UFA to five years or less terms. How a team drafts in the first round is a clear indicator of what identity it is aiming for.

1st round drafting by the Montreal Canadiens

2012: Galchenyuk

2011: Beaulieu

2010: Tinordi

2009: Leblanc

2008: none, (Kristo)

2007: McDonagh, (Eller), Pacioretty, (Subban)

2006: David Fischer

2005: Price

2004: Chipchura

2003: A. Kostitsyn

2002: Higgins

2001: Komisarek, Perezhogin

Note1: Acquired by trade or highly talented 2nd round picks between parentheses

Note2: Excluding the last 5 drafts, all of the Habs' first rounders made it in the NHL, except David Fisher

Common denominator: above average speed
Many of these players play a physical game: Komisarek, Higgins, A. Kostitsyn, Pacioretty, Tinordi, Beaulieu or intense game along the boards: Eller, Subban, Leblanc, Galchenyuk
Higgins and Chipchura faced serious injuries in their career and were traded away.
McDonagh, as the last playoffs have revealed, plays a relatively soft game and was traded away (in the Gomez trade). On the other hand, Eller was acquired through trade (Halak trade) and plays an intense game.

Has the franchise improved in the last 3 years?

As Jacques Martin, former coach of Montreal Canadiens, said multiple times in his interviews, players should focus primarily on the process and not the results. Obviously the results were not there last season as the team finished last in the eastern conference, but what about the process?

Offensive abilities can rarely be improved in a player, however the defensive side of their game can be improved with good coaching combined with willingness from the player. Such improvement is most important for young players who have few games of experience in the NHL. Gorges, Subban and Eller are three young players that have greatly improved their games during the last seasons. Gorges and Subban have been used with Hal Gill as a shutdown defensive pair in the playoffs with success. The acquisition of Gill in 2009, who had just won the Stanley Cup with Pittsburgh, was a great mentor for their development. Lars Eller and Andrei Kostitsyn (on the same line as Moen) were used as a shutdown line against high quality of opposition for some games this season. Andrei Kostitsyn has had some success with Nashville after being traded making some great defensive plays in the playoffs. Desharnais, Pacioretty and even Cole just had their most productive season in all their respective careers. Although the young players have displayed some encouraging improvement, some would argue that some of the veterans have regressed. The most glaring example is Gomez which I will now discuss in more details.

Gomez just had his least productive season in all his career (although it should be noted that he played only 38 games). Is it possible that his talent has completely disappeared? I highly doubt it. His talent (which is still present) just does not translate in point production anymore. Gomez is a fairly uni-dimensional player in some aspects. He has great vision, speed and passing skills, however his shot is terribly slow and inaccurate. He thus relies heavily on his wingers to complete the plays he creates and his production is thus very dependent on the quality of his teammates. Gomez was however demoted this season (to the profit of Desharnais) and has played with really low-skilled wingers. Last season, he was the center who played with the lowest quality of teammates on the team which was not the case the previous seasons. Gomez also played some nights as a winger, because of the surplus of centers on the team which is not his natural position. Gomez also played very few nights with his long time buddy Giointa with which he has very good chemistry. (Both were together in the line-up only 13 games this season and when they were, they did not necessarily play on the same line.) On November 19, 2011 when Gomez played against his former team the New York Rangers on the same line as Gionta, he had a very productive night with 2 assists and was all over the ice. Gomez and Gionta also need a big body on their line to create some space for them. When it was the case (with Pouliot or Pacioretty), their line was very productive. Another possible explanation for Gomez's production decrease is that Gomez is a power play specialist that used to make a good proportion of his point production on the power play. However, power play opportunities have greatly decreased league-wide in the last seasons as I have illustrated in one of my previous post.

My general conclusion is that individually most players on the current roster of the Montreal Canadiens have improved over the last seasons. However, not all of them were used in their "right chair" (teammates, opposition faced). If results did not materialize, it was because their utilization was not optimal to guarantee results and wins. Facing a quality of opposition a notch too high for your abilities may help you develop your defensive game (process), but it will not translate into wins for the team (results).

Rick Nash in Montreal (Updated)

2012-07-20T23:37:00.000-04:00

Now that Zach Parise and Ryan Suter are out of the market (after signing ridiculously long contracts), the biggest fish left in the pound is now Rich Nash.

Transaction proposal

Rick Nash

Erik Cole

David Desharnais

Sebastian Collberg

2013 MTL 1st round pick

Reviewing recent past moves from Columbus

Defense

They acquired 2 defensemen:

On February 24, 2012, the Jackets acquire defenseman Jack Johnson in exchange of Jeff Carter and a conditional 1st round pick.

On June 22, 2012, Columbus selects Ryan Murray 2nd overall in the 2012 entry draft.

Goaltending

They acquired one backup goalie:

On June 22, 2012 before the 2012 entry draft, Scott Howson acquires Sergei Bobrovsky in exchange of their 45th (2nd round pick acquired from the Phoenix Coyotes) and 117th (4th round pick acquired from the Vancouver Canucks) selections in the 2012 draft and a 4th round pick in the 2013 entry draft (also acquired from the Phoenix Coyotes).

Forwards

They acquired one centerman and traded away three others.

On November 8, 2011, the Blue Jackets trade for Mark Letestu in exchange of their own 4th round pick in the 2012 entry draft.

On February 22, 2012, Scott Howson trades Antoine Vermette to the Phoenix Coyotes for a 2nd round pick in the 2012 entry draft (Ottawa's), a conditional 5th round pick in the 2013 entry draft (Phoenix's) that transformed into a 2013 4th round pick when the Coyotes made it to the second round of the playoffs and minor league goaltender Curtis McElhinney.

On February 24, 2012, the Jackets acquire defenseman Jack Johnson in exchange of Jeff Carter and a conditional 1st round pick.

On February 27, 2012, Scott Howson trades Sami Pahlsson to the Vancouver Canucks in exchange of minor league defenseman Taylor Ellington and two 4th round picks in 2012 (the Canucks' own and the New York Islanders' which was acquired in exchange of Christian Ehrhoff's rights).

After all these trades and Rick Nash taken out, this is what the Blue Jackets could look like next season:

2012-2013 Columbus Blue Jackets roster at this time with Rick Nash taken out
FORWARDS
R.J. Umberger ($4.600m) / ????????????????? / ???????????????
Vinny Prospal ($2.500m) / Derick Brassard ($3.200m) / Ryan Johansen ($1.945m)
Nick Foligno ($3.083m) / Mark Letestu ($0.625m) / Derek Dorsett ($1.633m)
Derek MacKenzie ($1.000m) / Colton Gillies ($0.625m) / Jared Boll ($1.050m)
Ryan Russell ($0.700m) / Cam Atkinson ($0.875m)

DEFENSEMEN
Jack Johnson ($4.357m) / James Wisniewski ($5.500m)
Fedor Tyutin ($4.500m) / Nikita Nikitin ($2.150m)
Ryan Murray ($3.775m) / Adrian Aucoin ($2.250m)
John Moore ($0.965m)

GOALTENDERS
Steve Mason ($2.900m)
Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m)

If Nash ends up not being traded, Johansen would take a spot at center and Rick Nash and Cam Atkinson would fill the right wing slots on the top6. As both Brassard and Johansen have been used on the wing this season, the Blue Jackets are most likely looking for 2 top6 centers, 2 top6 right wingers or, even better, one first line center and one fist line right winger to complete their roster in an hypothetical trade involving Rick Nash. There are however by definition only 90 forwards in the league that fit that definition. The most competitive teams have only 4 of these forwards. (Boston is the only team to have 5 forwards that rank in the top90.) Parting with two of them to get one (Nash) is a pensez-y bien.

Other teams in the race for Nash

Three teams have reportedly been very active to acquire Rick Nash: the LA Kings, the San Jose Sharks and the New York Rangers. What could be Colombus' demands for each of these teams? Here are the forwards that fit the bill (top90 forwards / center or right winger / one young veteran & one seasoned veteran)

Sharks: Logan Couture & Joe Pavelski

Rangers: Derek Stepan & Ryan Callahan

Kings: Dustin Brown & Justin Williams

Any deal including these players would automatically beat my original offer, but these players are also very unlikely to be traded by their respective teams.

Dissecting the hypothetical Columbus-Montreal trade

Rick Nash

Rick Nash is a special player: he was drafted first overall in 2002 and is part of a special club of players who have scored 30 goals or more for at least 6 seasons since the lockout. Only 5 players are part of that club and the other members played with far better teams and teammates than Nash. His best season was in 2008-2009 when he scored 40 goals and 79 points. This was accomplished without a true #1 center to feed him passes. Rick Nash is also a very hard player to contain on the ice as judged by number of penalties drawn against him per 60 minutes of ice time at even strength last season. This translated in about 0.45 power play opportunities per game for his team (4th highest in the league). He also had the 4th best penalty differential adjusted for ice-time in the league. He is thus a very handy player to have on your team if it possesses a strong power play. Also, as illustrated in the video above, Rick Nash is very good for capitalizing on breakaway opportunities. Plekanec is a center that tends to create a lot of these and would be a very good fit for Nash (he is also a very good play maker).

All is however not merry. Nash just had his least productive season in the last 5 years with 30 goals and 59 points despite playing all 82 games (ranking behind Desharnais and Cole). His goal and point totals have been on a constant decline over the last 4 seasons. Furthermore, historical analysis of elite goal-scoring wingers suggest that their peak is attained between the ages of 23 and 25 and that their production begins to decline by the time they are 26. They are however exceptions such as Iginla, but Nash's decline in production over the last seasons could lead one to believe that he is part of the norm rather than an exception. If Nash's production continues to decline, his contract (at $7.8M caphit) could become an anchor for his team. (Note: The fact that Scott Howson said in his press conference after the trade deadline that it was Nash that asked for a trade could have for purpose to go against the image of a team attempting to get rid of a potentially bad contract.) Nash also has the bad reputation of a player deficient in his own zone due to his bad +/- stats. He however faced the highest quality of competition for forwards on his team each night and was most certainly not centered by a great two-way player.

Erik Cole

At age 33, Erik Cole has just known his career year with 35 goals and 61 points despite already playing 10 years in the NHL. The season before, he played with world-class center Eric Staal in Carolina against the highest quality of competition. This season is played with newcomer David Desharnais as center and got better offensive production facing mid grade quality of competition. Should we attribute Cole's higher offensive output to his new centerman or the lowest quality of competition he was facing? That question is up to debate. An other important factor is that Cole still has three years left on his contract and will be 36 years old by the time it ends. The game of a power forward is more hard on the body that the game of power play specialist such as Teemu Selanne or Mark Recchi. However, Doan and Iginla and two relatively old power forwards that are still kicking it in the league (although they have shown some signs of slowdown). Will Cole be able to maintain his current offensive production until the end of his contract?

David Desharnais

Despite his small stature, David Desharnais was the 20th point producing center in the league (effectively filling the role of a tier2 #1 center). He has shown that he can produce a lot of points in the NHL if he is given two big quality wingers. The Blue Jackets could recreate that winning situation for him by letting him play with Cole and Umberger in Columbus. Umberger is not as talented as Pacioretty and never has scored 30 goals in the NHL, but he fits the power forward mold just like Pacioretty does (big and fast on his skates).

Sebastian Collberg

As the Jackets get noticeably older with the replacement of Nash by Cole, it is in their right to ask for the best right-wing prospect the Habs have. Their eyes will most likely be laid on Sebastian Collberg, drafted 33th overall in the last entry draft. Trevor Timmins in a video interview qualified him as worthy of the 1st round.

2013 MTL 1st round pick

At first glance, Montreal's 1st rounder has more value that any other 1st rounder that could be offered by the Kings, Sharks or Rangers. These three teams all made the playoffs this year and if they did not make it again next season it would be a big upset. Montreal on the other hand finished last in the eastern conference and if they went far into the playoffs next year it would be a big surprise. Furthermore, without 2 of their top3 best point producers last season gone, a new management, a change of philosophy and much of the same players as last year, results could be expected to take time before they improve. The arrival of Nash would certainly help the Habs, but even with him in their line-up Columbus did finish dead last in the league last season. A first rounder would also be a must for Columbus in a transaction involving Nash. With the 1st round pick acquired in the transaction that sent Jeff Carter to the Kings, the Blue Jackets would effectively have 3 picks in the first round of the promising 2013 entry draft.

Note: Erik Cole's NTC and Rick Nash's NMC are both possible barriers to this hypothetical trade.

Speculating on what could have went down

A possible explanation as to why Montreal was never in the rumors concerning Rick Nash is that Pierre Gauthier made the initial offer to the Blue Jackets that set the benchmark for the price of Nash which was essentially the one I just proposed, but probably a less generous one (for example two second round picks instead of a first round pick and Sebastian Collerberg as he was not drafted yet at that time). That proposal set the benchmark for the price of Nash and Howson then probed the other general managers on Nash's secret trade list in an attempt to get a better deal, but without success as no trade happened before the trade deadline. It was also in the interest of Howson to wait until summer so teams with cap restraints could make some place for Nash on their roster. Pierre Gauthier had told in some of his interviews that he had a plan in mind to put the franchise right back on track and that it is now possible to do so quickly in the new NHL. He also regarded his recently acquired 2nd round picks as tools that could be used in one way or another. Trading for Nash could have been that plan: the plan of a desperate GM trying to save his team's season and his job. However, at that time Montreal was not as low as it finished in the standings and Nash could have given a small boost to the team thus reducing the value of the picks it could have offered. The fact that Nash asked for a trade and that his NMC permitted him to choose a selected list of teams he was willing to get traded to could have sparked the hypothesis of a conspiracy in Howson's mind, because Nash and a rival GM could have conspired against him. The recent firing of Gauthier and the total change of management however eliminates the possibly that such a plan was engineered by the Habs management.

Fueling the rumor mill

Erik Cole's contract structure makes him particularly valuable for a team on a tight budget: 8 millions of the original 18 million contract are already paid for by the Montreal Canadiens for only 1 season of play out of 4. The Columbus Blue Jackets would only have to pay the remaining 10 millions over the course of the next three years (an average spending of $3.33M) whereas the cap hit of the contract stays at $4.5M, an economy of more than $1M per year on average and an actual economy of $2.5M during the first year. Also, trading away Mike Cammalleri (a top6 forward) for Rene Bourque (a top9 forward) effectively left a top6 forward position empty on the Habs' roster which could be filled by Rick Nash. Furthermore, Erik Cole and David Desharnais were put this season in a very favorable light: their line stayed intact almost the whole season and they were put against 3rd grade opposition when playing at home.

Would Montreal be giving too much?

As a whole what Montreal would be offering for Nash may seem a lot, but by looking at each piece individually we see that the organization took great precaution to dampen the lost of each. Erik Cole was an UFA last summer and any team could potentially have signed him without giving anything in return. His contract cap space was the only opportunity cost of signing him. Rick Nash would effectively take his spot on the right wing on the first line. Montreal has also great depth at center: Plekanec, Gomez, Eller, Nokelainen, White, Leblanc and Desharnais could all fill that role next season. Giving away the only one that was never drafted or traded for has also very little opportunity considering another center could take his spot. Desharnais also does not fit the mold of the ideal #1 center one would want to have on the ice during a Stanley Cup final game in over time. His size and his play in his own zone are his main drawbacks. The loss of Sebastian Collberg would be dampened by the fact that the Habs drafted twice in the second round of the 2012 entry draft. The loss of the 1st round pick in 2013 would be amortized by the fact that Montreal has 2 extra second round picks for that draft. If the Habs manage to get a deep run in the playoffs next season (conference final), the draft position of the Canadiens would effectively be the same as a team trading its late 1st round pick for two second round picks. Conversely, the Habs could still "trade up the draft" by exchanging two of their earliest second rounders for a late first round pick if they are interested in one particular prospect anticipated to be drafted at the end of the first round. However ex ante, Montreal's first round pick has more than this because it is less than clear at this point in time at the Montreal Canadiens will have a good run in the playoffs next season.

Final rosters after proposed trade

2012-2013 Columbus Blue Jackets after trade with Montreal

FORWARDS

R.J. Umberger ($4.600m) / David Desharnais ($0.850m) / Erik Cole ($4.500m)

Vinny Prospal ($2.500m) / Derick Brassard ($3.200m) / Ryan Johansen ($1.945m)

Nick Foligno ($3.083m) / Mark Letestu ($0.625m) / Derek Dorsett ($1.633m)

Derek MacKenzie ($1.000m) / Colton Gillies ($0.625m) / Jared Boll ($1.050m)

Ryan Russell ($0.700m) / Cam Atkinson ($0.875m)

DEFENSEMEN

Jack Johnson ($4.357m) / James Wisniewski ($5.500m)

Fedor Tyutin ($4.500m) / Nikita Nikitin ($2.150m)

Ryan Murray ($3.775m) / Adrian Aucoin ($2.250m)

John Moore ($0.965m)

GOALTENDERS

Steve Mason ($2.900m)

Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m)

BUYOUTS

Mike Commodore ($1.542m)

------

SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $56,875,476; BONUSES: $2,337,500

CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $13,324,524

http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=13045

After the trade, the Blue Jackets would become a team spending near the floor (of $54.2M) which is not a bad thing considering Columbus has been the team with the second largest deficit (as measured by operating earnings) after the Phoenix Coyotes for the 2010-2011 season. Assuming that the cap hit equals the actual salary paid (not a big assumption for the Blue Jackets), they had a payroll of about $54.746M (after excluding the bonus cushion) for that season. Increasing revenues (by ticket price inflation) and keeping spending near that level would decrease their deficit.

Also, the 23-man roster presented contains 3 extra players with 2-way contracts that can be sent to the minors to save extra money (Russell, Atkinson and Moore). Combined, these contracts account for $2.54M. After subtracting these contracts from the total, it gives a total around $54.335M for the 20-man roster which is barely $0.135M above next year's cap floor (assuming it stays the same with the new CBA). I have also given Ryan Murray the maximal amount for an ELC (Entry Level Contract). This contract would contain a $2.85M performance bonus that is unlikely to be achieved (or at least completely) by a 18-year-old rookie defenseman playing on the third paring. When you also factor in Erik Cole's front-loaded contract (of which the bulk such as the signing bonuses have already been paid by Montreal), it adds up to significant cost savings for the Blue Jackets without hurting the competitiveness of the team (which is already low anyway).

2012-2013 Montreal Canadiens after hypothetical trade with Columbus (and more)

FORWARDS
Andrei Kostitsyn ($4.000m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Rick Nash ($7.800m)
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Scott Gomez ($7.357m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Rene Bourque ($3.333m) / Lars Eller ($1.325m) / Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
Brandon Prust ($2.500m) / Ryan White ($0.688m) / Travis Moen ($1.850m)
Petteri Nokelainen ($0.575m)

DEFENSEMEN
Josh Gorges ($3.900m) / P.K. Subban ($5.000m)
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Alexei Emelin ($2.000m)
Francis Bouillon ($1.500m) / Raphael Diaz ($1.225m)

GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($6.500m)
Peter Budaj ($1.150m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,077,976; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $1,122,024

http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=13315

***

UPDATE: Rick Nash traded to the New York Rangers

Rich Nash
Steven Delisle (minor league defenseman)
2013 CBJ 3rd round pick conditional to the Rangers not making the Stanley Cup Final

VS
Brandon Dubinsky
Artem Anisimov
Tim Erixon (drafted 23rd overall by Calgary in 2009)
2013 NYR 1st round pick

As I originally expected, the return for Nash consisted of 4 pieces: 1 veteran forward fitting the power forward mold (Dubinsky), 1 young forward established in the league (Anisimov), 1 high grade prospect (Erixon) and a 2013 1st round pick. As Dubinsky, Anisimov, Brassard and Johansen are all natural centers at least two of them will play on the wing. (Anisimov and Dubinsky played on the wing last season.)

My surprise comes from the quality of the two veteran forwards acquired. I envisioned that two first line players (top90 forwards in the league) should come back to Columbus in a trade involving Nash. I have no doubt in my mind that it is what Columbus was asking for, but as we can all see their demands were not satisfied. Considering only last season's point production, Dubinsky and Anisimov barely qualify as top6 forwards as they rank 172th and 158th for points respectively amongst forwards. Dubinsky did however have one 54 point season one year ago.

2012-2013 Columbus Blue Jackets after trade with New York Rangers
FORWARDS
R.J. Umberger ($4.600m) / Derick Brassard ($3.200m) / Brandon Dubinsky ($4.200m)
Vinny Prospal ($2.500m) / Mark Letestu ($0.625m) / Ryan Johansen ($1.945m)
Nick Foligno ($3.083m) / Artem Anisimov ($1.875m) / Derek Dorsett ($1.633m)
Derek MacKenzie ($1.000m) / Colton Gillies ($0.625m) / Jared Boll ($1.050m)

DEFENSEMEN
Jack Johnson ($4.357m) / James Wisniewski ($5.500m)
Fedor Tyutin ($4.500m) / Nikita Nikitin ($2.150m)
Ryan Murray ($3.500m) / Adrian Aucoin ($2.250m)

GOALTENDERS
Steve Mason ($2.900m)
Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m)

BUYOUTS
Mike Commodore ($1.542m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $54,785,476; BONUSES: $2,175,000
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $15,414,524
http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=13445

How Many Power Forwards Do You Have on your Team? or The Importance of Poward Forwards

2012-07-12T01:36:00.001-04:00

What is a power forward?

"In ice hockey, power forward (PF) is a loosely applied characterization of a forward who is big and strong, equally capable of playing physically or scoring goals and would most likely have high totals in both points and penalties. It is usually used in reference to a forward who is physically large, with the toughness to dig the puck out of the corners, possesses offensive instincts, has mobility, puck-handling skills, may be difficult to knock off the puck and willingly engage in fights when he feels it's required. Possessing both physical size and offensive ability, power forwards are also often referred to as the 'complete' hockey player." from Wikipedia.

Attempting to translate that definition into readily available stats, I made the following not too restrictive arbitrary definition: a player with at least 100 hits in a season and 20 goals scored at even strength. I use goals at even strength, because goals scored at 5v5 are usually more often the result of toughness, winning individual battles and gaining position on an opponent (ex see the video above) than on the power play which is more about pure offensive skills (passing, shooting, etc.)

2007-2008 Power Forwards

2008-2009 Power Forwards

2009-2010 Power Forwards

2010-2011 Power Forwards

2011-2012 Power Forwards

Power Forward Summary

Remarks

Although I did not put any restriction on player weight/height in my definition of a power forward, no power forward in my study is under 6 feet and only 3 are slightly below 200 pounds (all in the 2011-2012 season)
To be considered a power forward for multiple seasons is a very rare feat: only Alex Ovechkin(5), Bobby Ryan(3) and Scott Hartell(3) made it more than twice.
The 2011-2012 saw a lot of young and upcoming players making the list: Evander Kane, Max Pacioretty, Jamie Benn, James Neal
The number of identified power forwards increases each season, this trend can be decomposed into an increase of even strength 20 goal scorers and an increase of 100+ hitters over the 5 season span.
Over the seasons, a higher proportion of 20+ even strength goal scorers have also given 100+ hits and a higher of proportion of 100+ hitters have also scored 20+ even strength goals. This could be interpreted that either some high skilled players are getting more physical or that physical players are getting more efficient at scoring goals (or are getting more ice time).

***

Next, I look at possible explanations for the increase in 20+ even strength scorers and 100+ hitters

Goal types as a percentage of total goals scored

Even strength and power play goals as a percentage of total goals scored

Remarks

After the lockout, the proportion of goals scored on the power play soared to 33% and has constantly decreased since to fall to 21% last season.
During the same time period, the proportion of goals scored at even strength took the inverse direction growing from 59% to 72%.
After the lockout, the total amount of goals scored jumped to above 7400 from a level of around 6300. The increase in total goals scored was mainly attributable to an increase of goals scored on the power play (2500 vs 1700).
In the last season, total goals scored fell to almost pre-lockout levels, but even strength goals scored is markedly higher than pre-lockout levels.
Over the last 3 seasons, even strength goal scoring was near constant while power play goal scoring continued to decline.
After the lockout, the proportion of empty net goals saw a slight and almost linear increase which could be interpreted in an increase in the number of tight one-goal games.

Power play opportunities

Remarks

The season after the lockout saw an increase of about 4000 power play opportunities from the previous season.
Since then, power play opportunities have decreased from season to season
Since 2005-2006, there has been a decrease of about 6200 power play opportunities.
Since 2007-2008, there has been a decrease of about 2400 power play opportunities.
The downward trend is slowing down.

Power play efficiency

Remarks

Over the last 12 seasons, power play efficiency and power play play shot efficiency have been relatively stable.
Since 2008-2009, power play efficiency has been on a slight downward trend.
Since 2005-2006, power play shot efficiency has been on a slight downward trend which could potentially be explained by an increase in blocked shots.

Hits

Remarks

Unlike goals, hits are harder to measure and are more subjective.
The big change in hits from 2001-2002 to 2002-2003 is most likely the result of a change in the counting methodology than the league becoming inexplicably "softer" the next year.
Assuming the counting methodology is the same since the lockout, the league got more and more physical since 2005.
In the last 3 seasons, the number of hits has been fairly constant.

***

Coming back to the power forward issue...

As just demonstrated, even strength goals and hits have been fairly constant over the last 3 seasons. These seasons are thus the most comparable. From 2009-2010 to 2011-12, the number of power forwards jumped from 8 to 13 which leads me to believe that the top-end talent is getting more physical or that some physical players are more thriving under the "modern" NHL. I made the following somewhat arbitrary classification of power forwards with examples from the 2011-2012 season

1. The Power Forward Prototypes (constant 20 ES goal scorers and 100+ hitters)

Alex Ovechkin, Bobby Ryan, Scott Hartnell

2. Constant 20 ES goal scorers hovering near 100 hits

Jarome Iginla, Rick Nash

3. Constant 100+ hitters hovering near 20 ES goals

Erik Cole, Chris Kunitz

4. Young and upcoming Power Forwards

Evander Kane, Max Pacioretty, Jamie Benn, James Neal

5. Highly productive third liners at even strength (the New Power Forward Breed)

Pascal Dupuis, David Clarkson

I attribute the increase in power forwards this season to categories 4 & 5 which were empty the season before.

Category 4: some of the new top-end talent entering the league is playing a physical game

Category 5: physical third liners that are getting more ice-time due to the reduction of power play opportunities are scoring more goals at even strength

How to Still Get Evander Kane in Montreal (Updated)

2012-07-09T04:12:00.001-04:00

Briefly reviewing Montreal's past moves

1. Trading away a small offensively-minded defensively-challenged top6 forward (Cammalleri) for a physical top9 forward better in his own zone, but less talented offensively in Rene Bourque (who effectively took AK46's spot on the 3rd line) The Habs received a 2nd round pick in 2013 from Calgary in the trade.

2. Trading away AK46 who was relayed to a third line role with Eller (but playing against high quality of competition) which he was not especially suited for (mainly because of his frequent turnovers). The Habs received a 2nd round pick in 2013 from Nashville in the trade.

The plan

To come full circle, a possible move would be to trade away picks for an offensive top6 forward (effectively filling the void left by Cammalleri). One possible way to accomplish this is to present an offer sheet to a RFA. One current RFA that fits the bill is Evander Kane.

According to capgeek, Winnipeg has currently about 50.9M tied up in 20 players. Winnipeg has thus 3.3M left to spend before reaching the salary floor. Winnipeg's next moves probably include giving a 4-5M contract to Evander Kane and maybe signing a 7th depth defenseman. There is no way to know for sure what the Jets' internal salary spending limit is, but my uneducated guess is that is it below 60M. (Note: although Winnipeg currently has 50.9M tied up in cap hit, it will actually only pay about 50.1M in salary next season for the 20 NHL players currently under contract).

I thus propose the following offer sheet contract which has a cap hit of 6M
10.00M (8M+ signing bonus)
5.00M
5.00M
5.00M
5.00M
Which is in agreement with the CBA rules

Note 1: it is possible to create a contract even more front-loaded than this. The first year salary should be as high as the Jets' maximum salary budget is believed to be minus 50.1M
Note 2: the term of the proposed offer sheet contract is only 5 years, because the CBA has made it impossible to exploit the loophole of tail years with small salaries for offer sheet contracts

10.4 Draft Choice Compensation for Restricted Free Agents
Any Club that is entitled to but does not exercise its Right of First Refusal pursuant to Section 10.3 shall be entitled to obtain Draft Choice Compensation from the New Club. The number and quality of draft choices due to the Prior Club shall be based on the average annual value of the compensation contained in the Principal Terms (as defined in Section 10.3(e) hereof) of the New Club's Offer Sheet (determined by dividing such compensation by the lesser of the number of years of the Offer Sheet or five) (See The 2005 NHL CBA p.38)

Note 3 (update): the Flyers used the same basic strategy I outlined here with their offer sheet to Shea Weber

The idea behind such a contract is to provoke a liquidity shortage for the cash strapped Jets organization. Lacking the short term cash to finance such a contract (created in large part by the signing bonus payable immediately), Winnipeg would not be a position to match the offer sheet and would let Evander Kane walk (to their dismay).

Since my offer sheet has a cap hit of 6M (which is in-between $5,046,585 to $6,728,781), the compensation the Habs would have to give the Jets is their 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick in the next 2013 draft. The 1st rounder (in what is to be believed an excellent draft) has in itself great value (especially if the Jets believe the Habs are headed for another abysmal season). This alone could make them think twice about matching the offer.

Montreal would thus have in its top6, 3 of last year's 5 top producing power forwards in the league.

Digression: I define a power forward as a winger with 100+ hits and 20+ 5v5 goals. Only 13 forwards in the league met these criteria last season.

According to these criteria the top 5 power forwards in the league last year were (ranked by 5v5 goals)

Max Pacioretty
Bobby Ryan
Alex Ovechkin
Erik Cole
Evander Kane

Caveats

Giving $10M right away to an unproven 20/21 year old (who apparently likes night life) could hinder his development if his personality is predisposed to the "big-head syndrome"
Possible hatred from Winnipeg for taking away their best young offensive prospect
Prior to presenting an offer sheet to Evander Kane, the Habs should sign Subban in the fear of an offer sheet retaliation from Winnipeg targeting Subban.
Although Evander Kane's point production has constantly increased over the last 3 years, he has faced easier and easier competition each year. While he faced the highest opposition in his junior year, he faced 2nd grade opposition in his second year and 3rd grade opposition last season. This should however not be too much of a concern if you plan to use him against relatively easy opposition from the get-go on your match-up planning (ie you know what he can or cannot bring). (Note: a strategic employment of Kane would have called to make him play the toughest minutes in his contract year to dampen his statistics and get better leverage in the contract negotiations.)

Bottom line
Kane > Cammalleri (more physical, goal production ceiling potentially higher)
Bourque > Kostitsyn (in that 3rd line role, better defensively)
(2nd round pick) x2 < 1st round pick + 2nd round pick + 3rd round pick

Final line-up
FORWARDS
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Erik Cole ($4.500m)
Evander Kane ($5.000m) / Scott Gomez ($7.357m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Rene Bourque ($3.333m) / Lars Eller ($1.325m) / Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
Brandon Prust ($2.500m) / Petteri Nokelainen ($0.575m) / Travis Moen ($1.850m)
Ryan White ($0.688m)

DEFENSEMEN
Josh Gorges ($3.900m) / P.K. Subban ($4.000m)
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Alexei Emelin ($2.000m)
Tomas Kaberle ($4.250m) / Francis Bouillon ($1.500m)
Yannick Weber ($0.850m)

GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($6.500m)
Peter Budaj ($1.150m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,652,976;
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $547,024
http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=11829

Pac - Pleky - Cole

A line similar in composition to Bertuzzi - Datsyuk - Franzen (two big power forwards + two-way center)

If a line of Darche - Plek - Moen could shutdown Malkin's line in the regular season, I imagine this would do the trick (and at the same time be more of an offensive threat).

That exact line was very productive against Vancouver (2nd encounter) when Desharnais was out.

Envisioned use: against the highest quality of competition

Kane - Gomer - Gio

A line similar in composition to Pacio - Gomez - Gionta that was very productive before Pacioretty's injury.

Envisioned use: against 3rd grade competition (Kane and Gomez are not particularly great in their own end)

Bourque - Eller - Army

Rene Bourque has also been used against the highest quality of competition in Calgary for the 3 and a half years he spent there. However, he was not particularly successful playing with Plekanec against the highest competition in the second half of the season (but the whole team was in disarray).

Colby Armstrong was used against the highest quality of competition in Atlanta before signing in Toronto.

Eller was successfully used some nights against high quality of competition with teammates Moen and Kostitsyn.

Colby, Eller and Bourque are all similar in various ways: all have strong shooting percentages (above 10%), all score their goals near the net, all have good skates and all play a physical game.

Envisioned use: against 2nd grade competition

Prust - Noke/White - Moen
Checking line that can drop the gloves.
Nokelainen: face-off specialist

Penalty Kill
The acquisition of Prust permits the use of two very good forward pairs on the PK
Plekanec - Moen
Eller - Prust
A Noke/White - Bourque pair is not too bad either.

Gorges - Subban
Shutdown pair
Both were mentored by Hal Gill and were used with him in a similar role in the playoffs.
Really good pair with few scoring chances against in the second half of last season
Envisioned use: against the highest quality of competition

Markov - Emelin
A pair reminiscent of Markov - Komisarek
When at 100%, Markov should make his blue-line partner look better.
Envisioned use: against 2nd grade competition

Kaberle - Bouillon

Kaberle didn't look too good in his zone last season, but this can be attributed to the fact that he was often paired with a rookie in Emelin or other offensive defensemen that are even worst in their own zone (Campoli, Weber)

Bouillon is a good defensive defenseman that had a strong showing in this year's playoffs. He will be a good complement to Kaberle.

Envisioned use: against 3rd grade competition

Trade Baits for extra picks
David Desharnais (potentially a 2nd round pick)
Raphael Diaz (potentially a 3rd round pick)
Yannick Weber (potentially a 4th round pick)

If Montreal could trade all 3 players for the picks aforementioned, it would leave Montreal with the following position at the next draft
1st round: none
2nd round: 3x
3rd round: 1x
4rd round: 1x
5th round: 1x
6th round: 1x
7th round: 1x

Notes:
Montreal could use two 2nd round picks to trade up for one 1st round pick.
The loss of a 1st round pick could be dampened by a strong playoff run (Stanley cup?)

Exploring alternatives
Shane Doan

Signing him as a UFA has no explicit cost to Montreal, except his cap hit (opportunity cost)

The implicit cost however is that he is probably looking for a long term contract that will bring him to at least 40 (expected "production" value lower than cap hit at end of contract, contradictory to the speed identity of the Habs)

Will be 36 years old next year (ie 35+ contract)

Natural right-winger (which Montreal already has two of in its top6 (Cole, Gionta), implying someone would have to play off-wing)

Has averaged a 20 goal production in the last 3 years (not great)

About 30% of his point are produced on the power play

A natural leader that has known good performance in the playoffs during past seasons

Played against 2nd grade opposition last season

11 teams interested in him if he decides to not resign with the Coyotes (potential bidding war)

Bobby Ryan
Explicit cost: really high (Anaheim will ask a lot for him, potential bidding war)
Right-handed, but played most of his NHL career on the left wing.
Played against 2nd grade opposition last season

How Evander Kane Escaped the Clutches of Montreal

2012-07-07T02:51:00.003-04:00

July 2

12:36 Habs press conference scheduled at 16:30
https://twitter.com/RenLavoieRDS/status/219877179645894658

13:31 Habs press conference delayed at 17:00
https://twitter.com/RenLavoieRDS/status/219890991732244481

14:45 Carey Price signed
https://twitter.com/RenLavoieRDS/status/219909755274137600

18:11 Jokinen signs with Winnipeg
https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/219961423827185666

~18:30 Disappointed Marc Bergevin at press conference
http://tvasports.ca/video/1717434422001

My guess:
Winnipeg was looking for a #1 offensive center good on the power play
There was only Jokinen on the UFA market fitting that description
Montreal proposed Desharnais + Diaz + 2013 MTL 1st round pick for Evander Kane
Winnipeg rejected the offer and signed Jokinen of the UFA market (thus getting #1 center and keeping Kane)

Montreal's lineup would have been
Pacioretty - Plekanec - Cole
Kane - Gomez - Gionta
Armstrong - Eller - Bourque
Prust - Nokelainen/White - Moen

Gorges - Subban
Markov - Emelin
Kaberle - Bouillon
Weber

On the assumption that the Habs were deemed for another season of misery, the value of the 2013 1st round pick could potentially be overestimated by Winnipeg (or at least it was the objective).
If Calgary had not signed Cervenka out of the blue and/or Hudler was re-signed by Detroit, Calgary would've had no choice but to re-sign Jokinen leaving no #1 center on the UFA market.
Also, if the Jets suspected that getting a deal done with Kane could have been problematic (ie ask for too much money as he is not eligible for arbitration), this could have been a tempting offer.

Factoring In Carey Price's New Contract

2012-07-03T04:12:00.002-04:00

Price

As I expected, Price signed a mid/long term contract with the Habs before Parise and Suter signed with their chosen team. The final term is 6.5M cap hit for 6 years for a total of 39M, which was within the rumors of a 35-40M deal for 6 years and is 200K more than my original estimate. This deal now ranks Carey Price the 3rd highest paid goaltender in the NHL in terms of cap hit, but 9th in terms of next year salary. The deal accounts for about 9.26% of next season's cap which is a bit more than what Fleury was given in terms of percentage, but much less than what Ward and Lundqvist got (I will investigate this matter further in another post). The deal is back-end loaded which is really rare nowadays and is reminiscent of Carey Price's previous contract structure given by Pierre Gauthier.

https://twitter.com/reporterchris/status/219975782104182785

Subban

My next prediction is the following Subban will sign a 2-year deal before Parise and Suter sign with their chosen team. If Parise and Suter land in Montreal, Don Meehan would bleed Marc Bergevin for a big contract like he did with Dean Lombardi for Drew Doughty at the beginning of the season when it was very apparent that the Kings were aiming for the cup. Alternatively, if Parise and Suter sign in Montreal before Subban is signed, Don Meehan could aim for a 1 year contract in the hope Subban gets much better statistics next season on a much better team and then bleed even more the Habs afterwards. The problem with this approach is that Subban and Pacioretty's contract would be up at the exact same time at the end of next season and both would require major salary increases. The best scenario is indeed a two-year deal for Subban before a Parise/Suter signing.

I will now attemp to guess the value of Subban's next contract by inference. The maximum cap that a team cap have at any given time before the season starts is 110% the cap or 77.22M for now. Assuming the Habs sign both Parise and Suter for 7M cap hits and does not make any trade. The roster would look like this.

Line-up
FORWARDS
Travis Moen ($1.850m) / Scott Gomez ($7.357m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Erik Cole ($4.500m)
Zach Parise ($7.000m) / David Desharnais ($0.850m) / Rene Bourque ($3.333m)
Petteri Nokelainen ($0.575m) / Brandon Prust ($2.500m)
Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
Ryan White ($0.688m)

DEFENSEMEN
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Tomas Kaberle ($4.250m)
Josh Gorges ($3.900m) / Alexei Emelin ($2.000m)
Francis Bouillon ($1.500m) / Yannick Weber ($0.850m)
Ryan Suter ($7.000m) /

GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($6.500m)
Peter Budaj ($1.150m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $74,177,976
CAP SPACE (22-man roster):- $3,977,976
http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=10590

This roster is 3,977,976 over the cap. The max upper limit is 77.2M, which means Subban cap hit could be about 3.04M without the need to make any trade. If PK's contract is north of that amount, the Habs would have to first sign Subban, second trade away some cap hit (meaning the trade with Nashville) and then sign Parise/Suter. From here on, I will assume that PK's next contract has a cap hit of 3M.

For my dream team to still be viable, the secret card will need to be used: the bonus amount of Galchenyuk's ELC. As I have stated in my first article (in French), only 3 forwards that have been drafted in the top3 have signed ELC with a cap hit less than 3M: Van Riemsdyk (2th overall 2007) with 1.654M, Jordan Staal (2th overall 2006) with 2.2M and Bobby Ryan (2th overall 2005) with 1.921M. Only Jordan Staal made the team the season just after being drafted.These were 3 teams that were dealing the cap and not the floor like most teams that are drafting that high.

So, my dream team's roster would look like this:

Dream line-up
FORWARDS
Zach Parise ($7.000m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Rick Nash ($7.800m)
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Alex Galchenyuk ($2.600m) / Andrei Kostitsyn ($3.750m)
Sergei Kostitsyn ($2.500m) / Lars Eller ($1.600m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Travis Moen ($1.850m) / Petteri Nokelainen ($0.575m) / Ryan White ($0.688m)

DEFENSEMEN
Ryan Suter ($7.000m) / P.K. Subban ($3.000m)
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Josh Gorges ($3.900m)
Alexei Emelin ($2.000m) / Raphael Diaz ($0.900m)

GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($6.500m)
Peter Budaj ($1.150m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $70,187,500
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $12,500
http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=10592

There could even be a spot for a 7th defenseman like St-Denis at 900K if Galchenyuk is willing to accept a contract to an amount comparable to Van Riemsdyk's first contract. I am probably however understating Diaz's next contract here as he could probably make 1.5M.

I now leave you with the following Carey Price citation after his signing:

"It kind of made sense to me," Price said on a conference call from Williams Lake, B.C. "It will take me to until I'm 30 years old and generally that's about the peak of goaltenders, so I'm hoping by then to have a couple of Stanley Cups and have a good re-negotiation when I'm 30."

2012-2013 Montreal Canadiens Roster

2012-07-02T01:09:00.001-04:00

Unless Marc Bergevin signs other free agents on the market, this is probably what Montreal's roster will look like next season:

FORWARDS
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / David Desharnais ($0.850m) / Erik Cole ($4.500m)
Rene Bourque ($3.333m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Colby Armstrong ($1.000m) / Lars Eller ($2.000m) / Travis Moen ($1.850m)
Brandon Prust ($2.500m) / Petteri Nokelainen ($0.575m) / Ryan White ($0.688m)

DEFENSEMEN
Josh Gorges ($3.900m) / P.K. Subban ($3.365m)
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Alexei Emelin ($2.000m)
Tomas Kaberle ($4.250m) / Francis Bouillon ($1.500m)
Yannick Weber ($0.850m) / Raphael Diaz ($0.900m)

GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($6.000m)
Peter Budaj ($1.150m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $58,585,833
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $11,614,167
http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=10157

Which is barely better than last year's roster in the second half of the season (except that Gionta should play). Montreal who thus have 7 out of 8 big sized wingers. The only problem is that 4 of them should play on the 4th line.

Unless, this is still all part of the ploy...
You see, Colombus and Nashville have difficulty bringing UFA to sign with them in the off-season. They could have Marc Bergevin to sign some free agents for them as part of their deal. So the trades would become something like this:

Sergei Kostitsyn
VS
Rene Bourque
Colby Armstrong
Francis Bouillon

and

Rick Nash
VS
Cole
Desharnais
Brandon Prust
2013 MTL 1st round pick
RW prospect (Sebastian Collberg)

The last trade almost match for the cap hit (7.8M vs 4.5M + 0.850M + 2.5M = 7.85M)

My plan could still potentially be implemented, because Parise, Suter and Andrei Kostitsyn still haven't signed elsewhere yet. Another advantage of this ploy for Montreal, would be to lock up Subban and Price to mid to long term deals (instead of one year deal) because with the current line-up the hope is slime for better performance / statistics next season.

Tim Thomas: The Best Goalie in the Last Half Decade

2012-07-01T03:44:00.002-04:00

To evaluate the performance of goaltenders over the last 5 years, I use as a point of comparison in each year the average save percentage of goalies who were considered #1 (starter level) and the average save percentage of goalies who were considered backups (replacement level) in each year. The goalie composition of the two peer groups can change from season to season considering whether they qualify or not the group criteria (a starter needs to have played at least 49 games and a backup less than 25 games in a particular season).

Data from the above table taken from here

Relative performance of goaltenders

The following ranking is based on the cumulative even strength save percentage relative to the peer group of #1 goaltenders over the last 5 years (highlighted in blue). We use the even strength save percentage for the ranking, because team effects can have an important effect on the save percentage of goaltenders on the penalty kill. Only seasons were goaltenders played more than 45 games are considered and factored in the statistics. To be on the list, a goaltender needs to have either 1 season with 60+ games or 3 seasons with at least 45+ games played: 32 goalies qualified. (Click the image to enlarge)

Remarks:

The Nb of Seasons column counts the number of seasons the goaltender was considered the starting #1 goalie (criteria used: more than 45 games played).
Highlighted in orange: the number of games played by goaltenders who have played more than 300 games over the last 5 years (only 7) and the number of seasons of goaltenders who were considered a #1 goalie 5 times in the last 5 seasons (only 8).
Highlighted in red: Best year statistics after which a long contract (4 years or more) was signed less than an half-season after the best performing year of 45+ games in the observed period. Note: Fleury's big contract was given after a strong year of less than 45 games played
Highlighted in purple: Best performing year statistics under coach Ken Hitchcock
Highlighted in green: Worst performing year statistics which have a positive Rel EV Sv% (only goaltenders with at least 3 seasons of 45+ games are considered). In other words, the goaltender never underperformed the peer group of #1 goalies, a feat accomplished by only 4 goaltenders.

Interpreting the data from the table

During the 4 seasons Tim Thomas was considered a starter, he faced 6895 shots of which he stopped 6401 for an overall save percentage of about .928. During that period, his relative cumulative out-performance relative to starters was .054 or 5.4% for an average "added value" of .0135 or 1.35% (5.4% / 4) per season over the "average #1 goaltender". He thus prevented about 93 more goals or 23 more goals per season than the average starter. Compared to the "average" backup goalie, he prevented 170 more goals or 42 more goals per season (this however accounts even less for the quality of competition and is understated).

Consistency of goaltenders

Next, we look at the consistency of goaltenders over the last 5 years as measured by the concept of Target Semi-Variance (all games during the last 5 years are considered).

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/semivariance.asp#axzz1yrZfLHq9

This measure is particularly sensible to bad games and games where the goalie is pulled out (or comes in as substitute) as the save percentage of each game consists in an observation.

Remarks:

Highlighted in orange: the save percentage of goalies who achieved a mean save percentage above .918 during the last 5 years (only 6)

Dream Team with Tight Contract Negotiations & Updated Information

2012-06-30T01:21:00.001-04:00

FORWARDS
Zach Parise ($7.000m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Jarome Iginla ($7.000m)
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Alex Galchenyuk ($3.175m) / Andrei Kostitsyn ($4.000m)
Sergei Kostitsyn ($2.750m) / Lars Eller ($1.600m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Travis Moen ($1.850m) / Petteri Nokelainen ($0.575m) / Ryan White ($0.688m)

DEFENSEMEN
Ryan Suter ($7.000m) / P.K. Subban ($3.375m)
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Josh Gorges ($3.900m)
Alexei Emelin ($0.984m) / Justin Schultz ($0.925m)
Raphael Diaz ($0.900m)

GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($5.750m)
Peter Budaj ($1.150m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,996,700
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $203,300
http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=9475

Darche vs Nokelainen
In my original post, I had given Darche an other contract at the same salary as last season. I also mentioned that Darche should be replaced by Geoffrion in the playoffs (ie bringing the top guys from the AHL to play on the 4th line like the Devils did this year). Let's face it, Darche is not a particularly good skater and he will not get faster with age at this point in his career. Pretty much all other forward on my line-up have above average speed by NHL standards.

This new line-up also solves a weakness of my previous one: the lack a good right-handed face-off specialist. Nokelainen is not amongst the elite at that particular task, but he is a very good option for such a low cap hit.

I had also placed White as the fourth line center, but I now realize in retrospective that White almost did not play center (if at all) in the 20 games he played this season. This also explains (somewhat) why Nokelainen and White where used multiple times as the top(first) forward pair on the penalty kill (apart from willing to tank the season). This was certainly a stress-test of their abilities on the penalty kill and has given them some valuable experience. Nokelainen and White will probably form the third forward pair on the penalty kill next year.

Also, from a Human Resource perspective, Nokelainen is essentially Chipchura's replacement. (Chipchura had lost considerably speed after his injury and was traded for a 2011 4th round pick(Magnus Nygren) to the Ducks in 2009.)

Chipchura drafted 18th in 2004 by MTL
Nokelainen drafted 16th in 2004 by NYI

Moen
Moen was signed today to a 4-year/1.85M per deal or 2.64% of next year's cap.
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=399541

This is a slightly better deal than the one I originally envisioned: 1.7M per/3-year
It is however in line with the lower bound comparable that I considered
Gregory Campbell 3-year/1.6M or 2.28%
and the upper bound
Maxime Talbot 5-year/1.75M per or 2.72% (in year of inception ie 2011-12)

4th line
With the recent signatures of White, Nokelainen and Moen the 4th line is now set in stone. It consists of 3 penalty killers, 1 right-handed face-off specialist and 2 guys who can drop the gloves. As a whole, the 4th line accounts for 4.43% of the salary cap for 3 out of 23 possible player slots (13.04%). Since the minimum salary did not change since the signing of the old CBA 7 years ago and the cap increased substantially, it is possible to allocate such a small proportion of the cap to these low-tier players.

Carey Price
Quick signed a 10-year/5.8M per contract extension with the LA Kings.
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=399458
This should serve as a comparable in the negotiation for Price's next contract.
As I will show in my next post, over the last 5 years Quick has a very comparable save percentage to Price's. In fact, he is very slightly better. Considering this alone and the fact that Quick is more proven in the playoffs (Stanley Cup, Conn Smyth), Price should earn less.

PK Subban
In this new line-up, I slightly reduced Subban's salary. It is however still it the same offer sheet bracket.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/globe-on-hockey/could-we-get-an-offer-sheet-in-the-nhl-this-year/article4367867/
If other teams present him offer sheets and the Habs do not match it, they will have to shed a 1st and 3rd rounder in the next draft (which should be the best one in recent years). Shedding a 1st round pick is thus a relatively higher price this year. Subban could also decide on his own to not sign any offer sheet.

Squeezing the market for offensive defensemen
The Flames acquired from Washington Dennis Wideman and then signed him to a 5-year/5.25M contract.
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=399374
The Flames now thus have 3 top50 point producing D-men in their organization with Bouwmeester and Giordano being the other two ones.
If the Canadiens can sign Suter (and even possibly Schultz), they would be in a similar situation with Suter, Markov and Kaberle.
These two team could then collude and squeeze the market to get could return for one of their extra offensive defensemen.

There are reportedly 26 teams that would be interested to sign Justin Schultz.
https://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/218007150763573248
This gives you an idea of the demand for offensive defensemen in the market.
Now, here are potentially alternatives (offer):
Matt Carle, Jason Garrison, Joe Corvo, Sheldon Souray, Sami Salo, Jaroslav Spacek

There is a great disequilibrium which will increase price. Empty-handed general managers could offer great return for Bouwmeester or Kaberle.

Rationale for attracting Parise and Suter in Montreal
Why would they sign with Montreal?
After all, any playoff team with 14M$ cap space (after filling other positions) that has room for a top6 left winger and a top pair D-man playing on the left could sign them both and almost instantaneously become a Stanley Cup contender.

My answer is two-fold:

Montreal has all the other small pieces that make a team a contender (PK specialists, #1 goaltender, good young players, Stanley Cup winner veterans, etc.)
Pretty much all the players on that line-up have far above average speed just like Parise and Suter do. And if there is one thing annoying for fast players, it is playing with slower players who cannot complete the plays/opportunities you create. For example, I see Plekanec as a perfect center for Parise.

Nash instead of Iginla?
That last statement made me realize that there is one player left on my roster that does not possess distinct above average speed and that is unfortunately Iginla. Iginla will also be 35 years old next year and is the only important centerpiece that would need to be replaced in the near future that would prevent the Montreal Canadiens to be a Stanley Cup contender for the next 6 years.

The only other 7M+ power forward available on the market is non other than Rick Nash. I thus propose the following trade:

Rick Nash
VS
Erik Cole
David Desharnais
2013 MTL 1st round pick
RW Forward prospect (Sebastian Collberg?)

Trading for Nash just before July 1st 12:00 would make a huge splash and get the attention of the top profile UFAs.
The Blue Jackets would thus have 3 first round picks in the 2013 draft which is predicted to be one of the best in recent years.
The Montreal Canadiens would also still have 3 second round picks in a deep draft.

Also, signing Justin Schultz at the minimum ELC salary (0.925M$) like Adam Larsson did (he was however RFA unlike Schultz) is very unlikely for the reasons I outlined in the section Squeezing the market for offensive defensemen.
Emelin and Diaz might be willing to accept contracts at about 1M$ if they are 1-year deals which would grant them autonomy next year and greater bargaining power.

I now present you the fastest team in the NHL:

FORWARDS
Zach Parise ($7.000m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Rick Nash ($7.800m)
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Alex Galchenyuk ($3.175m) / Andrei Kostitsyn ($4.000m)
Sergei Kostitsyn ($2.750m) / Lars Eller ($1.600m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Travis Moen ($1.850m) / Petteri Nokelainen ($0.575m) / Ryan White ($0.688m)

DEFENSEMEN
Ryan Suter ($7.000m) / P.K. Subban ($3.375m)
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Josh Gorges ($3.900m)
Alexei Emelin ($0.984m) / Raphael Diaz ($0.900m)

GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($5.750m)
Peter Budaj ($1.150m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,871,700
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $328,300
http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=9569

Revising expectations after the 2nd day of 2012 entry draft

2012-06-25T00:20:00.002-04:00

STEP #1 - Drafting a #1 center
Done

STEP #2 - Trading Kaberle and Weber
There are reports from Slovakia, that Visnovsky might bolt to the KHL next year. If it proves to be true, it would mean the Islanders shed a 2nd round pick in 2013 for absolutely nothing. Acquiring a player without knowing for sure if he will play in the NHL next year indicates to me how desperate the Islanders were to acquire an offensive defenseman and why they drafted Griffin Reinhart (which from their viewpoint could be considered a safer pick than Reilly if they were afraid of his injury).
Visnovsky however says that playing for the Islanders is his first option next year. Reading between the lines, we can infer that he has a serious second option.
https://twitter.com/StapeNewsday/status/216903553795620865

If Visnovsky goes to the KHL next year, Kaberle could prove a viable alternative for them. However, as mentioned before, they already traded away their 2nd round pick for next year. I'm sure the Canadiens could settle for less, be it a 3rd, 4th or 5th round pick. After all, it is mainly a salary dump for Montreal. Also, as previously mentioned, Edmonton is also an other viable destination.

The trade of Weber to the Islanders for voiding the Islanders' conditional 5th round pick acquired in the Wisniewski trade from Montreal (transformed in a 2013 4th round pick) still holds ground.

STEP #3 - Acquiring Iginla

The acquisition of Iginla did not happen yesterday. All hope is not over however. It only implies that Montreal's 2nd round pick or any 2nd pick that could have been fetched for Kaberle is not included in this potential trade. An alternative (slithly more expensive) trade could be the following one.

Iginla

Cole

Desharnais

1st round pick MTL 2013 (late)

Thus at the 2013 entry draft, Montreal would have no 1st round pick, but three 2nd round picks.
2nd round pick CGY 2013 (early)
2nd round pick NSH 2013 (mid)
2nd round pick MTL 2013 (late)
Effectively, it is the same position as trading down from a late 1st pick to two 2nd round pick. Considering the great dept that the 2013 entry draft is presumed to have, there should be no clear cutoff point in talent at the end of the first round.

STEP #4 - Acquiring Suter and the Kostitsyn brothers
Again, all hope is not lost. On the contrary, you could view it as good news. Suter's rights were not traded yesterday. The previous trade that I proposed can be viewed in three separate components. The first component is Rene Bourque for Sergei Kostitsyn and the second and third components are the rights for Suter and Andrei Kostitsyn for 2nd round picks. Paying 2nd round picks for UFA rights is a very high pay to price considering you might receive nothing in return (ie you do not sign the player). This can be viewed as an upper limit that the Habs could pay for them. The lower bound is... nothing, just sign them on the open UFA market. This could potentially be more easily done for Andrei Kostitsyn since the organization has already close ties with the player. This is however less clear for Suter. My original trade was principally made in the optic of Nashville wanting to get picks back to cover their "all-in" move at the trade deadline in February.

STEP #5 - Signing Parise
No change here. Again, acquiring Iginla is pivotal to signing the free agents Parise (and Suter).

The Top Prospect Dilemma

2012-06-23T19:14:00.002-04:00

You are the undisputed #1 prospect at the next NHL draft.
By which team would you like to be drafted by if you had the choice?

This year you would probably want to be picked by the LA Kings.
Pretty much their whole core is signed for next year and you would have a great shot to compete for a Stanley Cup with them next year thus gaining much valuable experience. $$$
If you were a forward, they could easily give you a spot as a winger on their third line (which apart from Stoll is by all means "ordinary").

Now, let's make this idealized situation a bit more idealistic.
If you had the choice amongst five teams that had badly performed last year which one would you pick. (Teams unnamed to preserve confidentiality :D)

A team that has finished last for two consecutive years and then second last
A bottom feeding team that is spending to the floor (structural problem against winning)
A bottom feeding team spending near the cap unwisely
A bottom feeding team spending "mid-cap"
A team that has a more than legitimate chance to be competitive and make the playoffs next year and that has a bad year once in a blue moon

If you are not masochist or a have great competitive drive, you would probably choose the last team.
If Galchenyuk has the great competitive drive that he says he has, he would choose the last team.
Which brings me to the...

The Galchenyuk conspiracy
The ELC contract difference between the two prospects drafted 1st and 3rd overall last year was quite small (both are forwards like this year).
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 925,000$ + 2,875,000$ Perf bonus + 92,500$ Signing bonus
Jonathan Huberdeau 925,000$ + 2,300,000$ Perf bonus + 92,500$ Signing bonus

If you are drafted 3rd instead of 1st, you are potentially leaving 575,000$ on the table each year.
However, you also need to take into account the probability of reaching the performance thresholds in each year. On the first year, a relatively undeveloped talent playing with bad players has as a lower probability of reaching the performance thresholds especially if he does not play the full season.

Between Edmonton and Montreal, this is not a factor for Galchenyuk. There are quality wingers in both teams. This is however not the case for Colombus especially if they trade away Rick Nash like they announced they would. Add-in the facts that Galchenyuk was not very likely to be drafted above Yakupov (ex ante late August 2011) and that Edmonton a bottom feeding team likely to finish last again for the 2011-2012 season and already has a young #1 center and you get the seeds for a delicious Machiavellian ploy...

But, there is an even more important dimension to the dilemma!
The time value of money!
Or put in a more romantic way: the desire to compete in the NHL next year!

As I pointed out in my previous post, in August 2011, Galchenyuk was very scrawny looking and the odds of making the NHL next year were quite low in my opinion. Gaining muscular mass and playing a whole year in the CHL is a very difficult task. By "faking" an injury and training non-stop the whole year, Galchenyuk has greatly increased his odds to play in the NHL (with the Habs) next year.

So, effectively, Galchenyuk had to choose between the following two options at the beginning of the 2011-12 season

Have a potentially really good junior season; get drafted by a bottom feeding team (who could already have a young #1 center set in stone, see Edmonton), sign a contract with a 2,875,000$ performance bonus contract and play in the NHL in 2 years
Fake an injury and miss his 2nd junior season allowing him to train non-stop; get drafted by a competitive team that is willing to tank the season just for you(!), sign a contract with a 2,300,000$ performance bonus and play in the NHL next year.

At the same time, the Habs were conducting an "experiment" with Desharnais during the 2011-2012 season: can an undersized(undevelopped) prospect compete in the NHL with two big power forward wingers (in a sheltered role)?
The experiment was conclusive in my opinion and I can see Galchenyuk being used by his coach in a fashion similar to Desharnais next season.

Reactions to the 2012 1st round draft selections or The Galchenyuk Conspiracy

2012-06-23T04:00:00.001-04:00

Good thing that I am not a scout or Trevor Timmins for that matter. In my previous post, I predicted that Montreal would draft Grigorenko third (Galchenyuk was my second choice though). I was however right that Montreal would select a center that is projected to become number #1.

I admit that I am not a scout and that I have not seen Grigorenko or Galchenyuk play live. (I view myself as a strategy and capologist.) My intuition was primarily based on the weird path that Grigorenko took in the last year... but now that I am thinking about it, Galchenyuk's path is even more "sketchy": he almost didn't play the whole season! And the ploy that the Montreal Canadiens would have used in this case is exactly the same they probably used to tank this season: faked (or "embellished") ACL injury.

This would also not be the first time in my opinion that the Montreal Canadiens would have used a similar ploy to get a specific player when they are selecting at the top of the draft: see Andrei Kostitsyn 10th in 2003 (fake epilepsy medical report) who had only played 16 games in his draft season.
http://watch.tsn.ca/nhl/clip690536#clip707297

Now look at this next video that was shot in August 2011. Look at how scrawny Galchenyuk looks compared to the previous one.

Now if you are the Montreal Canadiens in August 2011 and you know that Galchenyuk is your guy and that you judge that his hockey play is sufficiently developed, faking an injury has the following two advantages:
1. You can possibly secure him at a lower drafting rank (injury fears + scouts from other teams see less of him)
2. Galchenyuk can focus 100% on working out and developing himself physically to be ready to play in the NHL next year (something that is more difficult to do if you also play 80+ games at the same time)

Alex Galchenyuk profile:
Character similar to Louis Leblanc
Gym workhorse
Life dedicated to hockey
Gifted scoring touch and great backhand (natural scorer)
Great speed and explosion on the ice (great fit for the Montreal Canadiens who create breakaways etc.)
And most importantly, can execute plays at top speed

NHL combine test results
Prospect ranked #1 for peak power output distancing 2nd prospect by 0.6 Watts/kg
http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=80653

Alex sure does not look as scrawny here compared to the the August 2011 interview video.

-There are a lot of fans in Montreal watching you right now, can you tell them what kind of player you are [...] ?
-Just wait and see
http://www.rds.ca/zone-video/#cat=en_vedette&videoID=111641

Galchenyuk has a clear intention to play in the NHL next year
http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=635624&navid=DL|NHL|home

Galchenyuk game highlights

***

Now that step #1 of my plan described in my previous post is completed (draft a #1 center), step #2 to 5 still need to be done. Step #2, 3 & 4 need to be done tomorrow at draft day #2. Information acquired today however slightly changed my plan.

STEP #2 - Trading Kaberle and Weber
As I envisioned the Islanders acquired an offensive defenseman only Visnovsky instead of Kaberle.
The Islanders could however still be interested to acquire Yannick Weber in exchange of voiding the conditional 5th round pick that they acquired from Montreal in the Wisniewski trade (that pick would translated in a 2013 4th round pick since MTL dealt it away to Calgary in the Cammaleri trade).

Edmonton however did not acquire a puck moving defense today and could be interested to acquire one, namely Kaberle. Kaberle - Whitney would make a great pair on the power play. And Kaberle could feed their speedy young forwards at 5v5. Kaberle vs Edmonton's 2nd round pick in 2012 is still a possibility.

STEP #3 - Acquiring Iginla
Calgary trading down in the first round to acquire a second round pick from Buffalo removes one of the motivations that I had listed to deal Iginla to Montreal. Calgary could still however be interested to acquire a second 2nd round pick in 2012.

Also, a dubious and unconfirmed rumor from David Staples that suggest that the Flames are offering a 6-year 6 million per season deal to Jokinen which would void my reasoning. (There is no place for Desharnais and Jokinen on their team.)
https://twitter.com/dstaples/status/216337768375263232

This step is not contingent on step #2, but if step #2 is not done this would imply that Montreal would have no 2nd round pick in 2012.

STEP #4 - Acquiring Suter and the Kostitsyn brothers
Everything is still possible at this point. However, if Montreal chooses to draft at the 51th position (Nashville's 2nd round pick) this would void my theory.

STEP #5 - Signing Parise
The Penguins made a splash trade Friday be dealing away Jordan Staal to the Canes. They also traded Michalek to Phoenix. They thus freed 5,933M$ of cap space.
Staal (4M$) + Michalek (4M$) - Sutter (2,067M$)

This is a clear indication to me that Pittsburgh is looking to find at least one quality winger for Crosby. Signing or acquiring a quality winger would greatly help the negotiations to retain Crosby in Pittsburgh. Parise is probably their #1 target. If Montreal could snatch him from them, they would find themselves in a weakened position (no Staal and no quality winger). Pittsburgh trading for Iginla would imply for them also giving other assets.

My dream team could still prove a reality (added-in Galchenyuk instead of Grigorenko). Tomorrow will indicate if that dream can still be a possibility.

FORWARDS
Zach Parise ($7.000m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Jarome Iginla ($7.000m)
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Alex Galchenyuk ($3.175m) / Andrei Kostitsyn ($4.000m)
Sergei Kostitsyn ($2.750m) / Lars Eller ($1.600m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Mathieu Darche ($0.700m) / Ryan White ($0.688m) / Travis Moen ($1.700m)
DEFENSEMEN
Ryan Suter ($7.000m) / P.K. Subban ($3.750m)
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Josh Gorges ($3.900m)
Alexei Emelin ($1.100m) / Raphael Diaz ($1.100m)
GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($6.300m)
Peter Budaj ($1.150m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $70,287,500
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $12,500
http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=7584

Comment le CH passera d’une équipe des bas-fonds à une équipe aspirante aux grands honneurs en l’espace d’une entre-saison

2012-06-22T18:43:00.000-04:00

(Note : il s’agit d’un brouillon d’idées qui ont été colligées sur une période de 4 mois, et bien que révisé, peu contenir des informations qui ne sont plus à jour à l’heure actuelle)

Pierre Gauthier : « Nous avons d’ailleurs, de l’intérieur, beaucoup discuté de cela dans les dernières semaines. C’est comment on peut rebondir rapidement d’une année qui est difficile. [...] C’est quelque chose que nous sommes conscients nous pouvons faire très rapidement »

Maintenant que Pierre Gauthier est congédié, nous ne saurons probablement jamais quel était son plan de relance. Ou peut-être que si…

Cet article aurait pu aussi bien être intitulé

Comment tirer le meilleur d’une mauvaise situation?

Markov blessé pour la majorité de la saison

Entretien d’une image d’improvisation

Markov

Adjoints imposés

Congédiement de Perry Pearn

Congédiement de Jacques Martin

Promotion de Cunneyworth

Larry Carrière derrière le banc

Cammelleri échangé dans le milieu d’une partie contre Boston

Joueurs échangés informés à la dernière minute

http://www.rds.ca/hockey/chroniques/338890.html

Le CH fait tout en son pouvoir pour perdre

Cunneyworth, un coach pour les joueurs de 4e trio

Les joueurs avec lesquels on a été le plus « dur et demandant » sont ceux que le CH veut garder et ceux qui l’ont eu le plus facile sont ceux qui partiront

Jacques Martin

Art de bien faire paraître ses joueurs

Utilise seulement ses vétérans dans les moments clés / unités spéciales

Tout le contraire de Cunneyworth

(Note intéressante : Lemaire et Martin sont ex aequo en tant qu’entraîneurs francophones ayant dirigé le plus de matchs en saison régulière avec 1262)

Quels joueurs ont bien parus cette saison?

Bourque / Cammalleri

Comment mal paraître

Question : D’après vous quels joueurs forment le noyau du CH?

Question : Quelle serait votre réaction si demain on vous apprenait que le CH venait d’échanger Cole et Desharnais?

Congédiement « déguisé » de Pierre Gauthier

Geoff Molson

Image d’un nouveau propriétaire qui veut s’impliquer directement, malgré peu ou pas d’expérience

Repêchage 2011

4 choix de 4e ronde

Josiah Didier (97e au total)

Olivier Archambault (108e au total)

Magnus Nygren (overager) (113e au total)

Journaliste : « On n’a jamais vu un propriétaire aussi présent que vous depuis longtemps »

En apparence de position de faiblesse (pas de DG en se moment)

Justifierait une Cassure / changement de philosophie

Projeter l’image de vouloir améliorer l’équipe rapidement à tout prix (faire un gros coup médiatique)

Pourquoi à cinq matchs de la saison?

Trouver un « candidat » avant la loterie du repêchage

Point de presse de Geoff Molson

Grande emphase sur

Importance d’avoir une équipe gagnante

Grandes attentes envers l’équipe (aspirante à la coupe Stanley)

Fans merveilleux et engagés (reçoit des milliers de courriels)

Pourquoi Gainey part aussi?

Ne trouvez-vous pas ironique de renvoyer le duo qui était à la barre du CH depuis 9 ans et de mentionner par le fait même que l’organisation recherche de la constance et de la stabilité?

Prédiction : un Québécois sans réel expérience dans la ligue sera nommé DG du Canadien (un Réjean Houle II si vous voulez)

Et pourquoi pas Geoff Molson lui-même! « Après plusieurs entrevues j’en suis venu à la conclusion que je ferais un bien meilleur travail que tous les candidats disponibles »

Les DG des autres équipes saliveront à l’idée de tenter de duper un nouveau DG sans expérience à la barre du CH qui connaît plus ou moins bien ses effectifs puisque récemment embauché et qui tenterait d’effectuer une transaction majeure dans le but de faire un grand coup afin de se faire remarquer!

Mais comme je l’expliquerai plus loin, tel sera pris celui qui croyait prendre, car tout ce cirque n’est en fait qu’un énorme mise en scène qui a été planifiée et méditée depuis 2005!

La parité dans la ligue permet de chuter plus facilement au classement si tel est l’objectif

http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=4548

Le CH fondamentalement meilleur qui ne paraît

Différentiel de buts (excluant les filets déserts) de -2.

Aucune équipe dans les 5 dernières du classement n’a jamais eu un aussi « bon » différentiel depuis que les statistiques sur les filets déserts sont disponibles.

Beaucoup de blessés

Épidémie de « commotions » d’origines nébuleuses

Masse salariale sur la glace sous le plancher salarial pour une grande partie de la saison

« Pas moins de 36 joueurs différents ont raté un grand total de 410 matchs, collectivement, jusqu'ici cette saison chez le Canadien. C'est un sommet dans la LNH. Sept joueurs ont raté 20 matchs ou plus, soit Markov (69), White (55), Gionta (48), Gomez (41), Moen (31), Chris Campoli (28) et Blunden (20). »

http://www.rds.ca/canadien/chroniques/337977.html

Des jeunes qui se sont améliorés et qui ont joué des rôles plus importants (principalement dû aux blessures)

Subban, Eller, Desharnais, Pacioretty, Emelin, Diaz, Leblanc

Le désavantage numérique du CH a terminé au 2e rang de la ligue après NJD avec 88,6% d’efficacité, et ce, même si le CH a été la 2e équipe qui s’est retrouvée le plus de fois à court d’un homme ou plus avec 315 occasions après PHI. De plus, le CH est la 4e équipe à avoir marqué le plus de buts en infériorité numérique avec 10. On peut dire merci à Tomas Plekanec qui a récolté 6 points dans cette phase du jeu, bon pour le troisième rang dans la ligue derrière Parise et Henrique avec 7 points. (Il est aussi un des 2 seuls joueurs avec Matt Cooke à avoir marqué à 3v5.)

Le CH est dans le milieu de peloton de la ligue au niveau de plusieurs statistiques

Buts marqués : 19e rang avec 207

Buts alloués : 11e rang avec 214

Tirs pour par partie : 19e rang avec 28,5

Tirs contre par partie : 12e rang avec 29,7

Ce qui a fait particulièrement mal au CH cette saison, ce sont les avances perdues et particulièrement celles en fin de match

Le CH a le plus faible pourcentage de victoire de la ligue lorsqu’il marque le 1er but avec .488 (30e rang)

Le CH a le 3e plus faible pourcentage de victoire de la ligue lorsqu’il mène après 2 périodes avec .727 (28e rang)

Le CH a le 2e plus faible pourcentage de victoire de la ligue lorsqu’il mène après 1 période avec .556 (29e rang)

12 points ont été perdus en tir de barrage cette saison alors que les tireurs qui y excellent ont joué un nombre restreint de parties (Gionta, Cammalleri, Bourque, Markov)

Il faudrait donc peut-être penser à amener des joueurs qui excellent dans ces situations importantes

Analyse plus détaillée de la position finale au classement

http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2012/4/13/2947204/the-best-worst-team-in-history

Brève analyse des équipes qui ont gagné la coupe Stanley depuis le lock-out

Si l’on regarde toutes les équipes qui ont gagné la coupe Stanley depuis le lock-out, elles avaient toutes, à l’exception d’une seule, dans leur alignement un joueur repêché dans le top3 d’un repêchage précédent

2011-12 Kings: Drew Doughty (2e au total 2008)

2010-11 Bruins: Tyler Seguin (2e au total 2010), Nathan Horton (3e au total 2003)

2009-10 Blackhawks: Patrick Kane (1er au total 2007), Jonathan Toews (3e au total 2006)

2008-09 Penguins: Jordan Staal (2e au total 2006), Sidney Crosby (1er au total 2005), Evgeny Malkin (2e au total 2004), Marc-Andre Fleury (1er au total 2003)

2007-08 Red wings: exception!

2006-07 Ducks: Bobby Ryan (2e au total 2005), Scott Niedermayer (3e au total 1991)

2005-06 Hurricanes: Eric Staal (2e au total 2003), Oleg Tverdovsky (2e au total 1994), Glen Wesley (3e au total 1987)

Comment ces équipes ont-elles acquis ces joueurs?

Bruins : Ils ont acquis Horton et Seguin par transactions. L’échange de Kessel pour le 1er choix 2010, le 2e choix 2010 et le 1er choix 2011 de Toronto a été particulièrement astucieux, car le 1er choix 2010 de Toronto s’est avéré être un 2e au total.

Blackhawks et Penguins : Ils sont finis dans les bas-fonds plusieurs années consécutives.

Red wings: Ils ont profité du biais anti-européen lors des années 90 ainsi que de leurs connaissances approfondies des petites ligues en Suède afin de repêcher dans les rondes tardives leur noyau : Henrik Zetterberg (210e au total, 1999), Pavel Datsyuk (171e au total, 1998), Nicklas Lidstrom (53e au total, 1989). Note : tous ces joueurs ont été repêché avant l’année 2000; il est selon moi moins probable de « découvrir » de telles perles aujourd’hui dans des rondes aussi basses alors que toutes les ligues sont scrutées par les dépisteurs.

Ducks : Ils ont gagné le 2e choix au total lors de la loterie du repêchage de 2005 et ils ont signé Niedermayer sur le marché des joueurs autonomes.

Hurricanes : Ils ont fini au dernier rang de la ligue en 2003, ce qui leur a permis de repêcher Eric Staal. Les deux vétérans défenseurs ont été signés sur le marché des joueurs autonomes.

Présence d’un gardien #1 étoile

Oui

2011-12 Kings avec Jonathan Quick

2010-11 Bruins avec Tim Thomas

2008-09 Penguins avec Marc-André Fleury

2006-07 Ducks avec Jean-Sébastien Giguère

2005-06 Hurricanes avec Cam Ward

Non

2009-10 Blackhawks avec Antti Niemi

2007-08 Red wings avec Chris Osgood

Deux clubs de « possession de rondelle »

Révélation des 2 joueurs russes

U18 en 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2a2WsPI56k

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nSFSYc1ngI

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjMEvf3jBbU

Portez attention à qui fait les passes sur les jeux

2 excellents passeurs dont la qualité des passes me rappelle celle de Markov

Des joueurs bons avec la rondelle qui peuvent marquer

Ils ont fait de Kutcherov, le meilleur marqueur de tout les temps du tournoi (21pts en 7 parties, dépassant la marque d’Ovechkin) (58^e choix au total par Tampa Bay)

Grigorenko avec 18 points égalant la marque d’Ovechkin

Yakupov avec 13 points

Les 3 leaders du tournoi

http://stats.iihf.com/Hydra/244/IHM244000_85B_11_0.pdf

Les 2 joueurs les plus prêts à jouer dans la NHL l’année prochaine

Joueront-ils un jour pour la même équipe dans la NHL?

À court terme, le destin semble voué à les séparer puisqu’aucune équipe de ne possède deux choix de 1ere ronde avec un rang de sélection assez élevé pour les repêcher tous les deux.

Note : Je ne suis pas un dépisteur professionnel et je n’ai aucune prétention de pouvoir « détecter » le talent plus qu’un autre.

Mauvaise réputation en général des joueurs russes

Saga Radulov (comment un joueur peut plaquer son équipe tout en récoltant tous les bénéfices)

Tout comme Grigorenko, Galchenyuk et Yakupov, Alexander Radulov a joué son hockey junior en Amérique du Nord ce qui laissait entrevoir que celui-ci voulait faire carrière au hockey en sol nord-américain. Pour la suite des choses, on sait que Radulov a joué deux saisons avec Nashville avant de quitter pour la KHL.

Mauvaise expériences passées avec des attaquants russes repêchés tôt (Zherdev, Filatov)

Kuznetsov (choix de 1ere ronde des capitals) qui essaie de faire monter les enchères entre la KHL et les capitals

Piètre performance d’Ovechkin alors qui a un contrat béton

Entretient d’un biais négatif envers les joueurs russes

Dilemme d’une recrue, une recrue veut être repêchée le plus haut possible (fierté), mais en même temps ne veut pas se retrouver dans une organisation perdante

L’opportunité de pouvoir s’améliorer, d’avoir des coéquipiers de qualité et une chance de remporter la coupe sont des facteurs importants pour les joueurs d’élite qu’ils soient jeunes ou plus vieux

Réalité : les équipes échangent rarement leur choix de 1ere ronde et encore moins un choix top5

Grigorenko qui n’est pas constant dans son effort et qui récolte des points contre des équipes plus faibles

http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/story/?id=388658

Grigorenko manque d’intensité et ne gagne pas ses batailles à 1 contre 1

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/sports/remparts/201203/13/01-4505274-grigorenko-se-bute-au-hockey-de-tranchees.php

Grigorenko manque d’intensité

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/03/27/is-mikhail-grigorenko-the-next-vincent-lecavalier-or-the-next-marc-pouliot/

Grigorenko : fils à maman tout comme Ovechkin?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/capitals/alex-ovechkin-whats-wrong-with-the-washington-capitals-superstar/2012/03/09/gIQAt5TT2R_story_3.html

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=623059

«La première ronde a donné lieu à du jeu plus physique et plus salaud. Là, on joue du vrai hockey, sans les coups de bâton! C'est un style avec lequel je suis plus confortable. Je n'étais pas prêt pour le genre de hockey auquel on fait face en première ronde, mais je me suis bien préparé pour la deuxième ronde. C'est plus facile pour moi mentalement»

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/sports/remparts/201204/09/01-4513729-repechage-de-la-lnh-grigorenko-recule-dun-cran.php

« Les performances en dents de scie de l'attaquant des Remparts Mikhail Grigorenko tout le long des séries éliminatoires ne peuvent être attribuées à une blessure. À la suite de l'élimination des siens mardi, l'attaquant russe a confirmé qu'il n'était hypothéqué d'aucune façon, ce qui aurait pu expliquer la baisse de production marquée de la recrue de 17 ans, face aux Voltigeurs et aux Mooseheads. »

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/sports/remparts/201204/19/01-4516808-grigorenko-netait-pas-blesse.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B13b_remparts_4708_section_POS2

Patrick Roy : «Je pense qu’il a besoin d’évoluer une autre année au niveau junior. Malheureusement, la décision ne revient pas à moi et plutôt à l’équipe qui le repêchera», a indiqué son entraîneur.

http://www.rds.ca/lhjmq/chroniques/338895.html

Environnement contrôlé :

Rouyn-Noranda a échangé son 2e choix au total du CHL import draft aux Remparts de Québec

Grigorenko a fait de Frédérick Roy (le fils de Patrick) l’un des meilleurs marqueurs de la LHJMQ

Complicité afin d’inciter Colombus à échanger son choix (Yakupov) et que Grigorenko soit disponible lorsque le CH parlera (top5)

CH est l’équipe qui a la meilleure réputation à l’international, particulièrement en Russie

Le caractère / profil psychologique ont une grande importance dans la sélection des choix de première ronde

La probabilité de faire le saut directement dans NHL l’année prochaine influence aussi grandement les équipes de bas de classement qui repêchent tôt, car elles veulent généralement améliorer leur équipe le plus rapidement possible

Rumeus que Grigorenko a 20 ans

https://twitter.com/DamoSpin/status/215209006099210240

Grigorenko = Couturier #2 ???

PLAN D’ACTION

ÉTAPE #1 – Repêchage 2012

Analyse des forces en présence

Edmonton

Besoins : défense, attaque secondaire

Biais marqué pour les attaquants en 1ere ronde

Biais très marqué pour les joueurs provenant de l’Ouest canadien

Depuis le 31 juillet 2008 soit la date d’entrée en fonction de Steve Tambellini comme directeur-général des Oilers d’Edmonton, aucun joueur russe n’a été repêché par l’organisation.

Dans les 10 dernières années, seulement 4 joueurs russes ont été repêchés par Edmonton et aucun d’entre eux n’a joué chez les pros en Amérique du Nord.

Alexander Bumagin (170e au total, 2006)

Roman Tesliuk (44e au total, 2004) (a joué junior en Amérique du Nord)

Mikhail Zhukov (72e au total, 2003)

Ivan Koltsov (106e au total, 2002)
Leur gardien #1 Nikolai Khabibulin est cependant Russe et il a été signé par Tambellini le 1er juillet 2009.
Bien qu’on ne dénote pas une aversion totale pour les joueurs russes, on ne dénote pas non plus une préférence pour eux.
Si préférence il y a, c’est bien pour les joueurs de l’ouest du Canada.
Murray, Dumba et Reinhart sont des défenseurs éligibles au prochain repêchage originaires de l’ouest canadien.
Intérêt de Lowe envers Murray
http://thepipelineshow.blogspot.ca/2012/04/ryan-murray-gets-call-from-canada.html
Avec la signature de Hemsky, Edmonton est rempli d’attaquants offensifs au centre (RNH, Gagner, Horcoff) ainsi qu’à l’aile droite (Eberle, Hemsky). Si Yakupov est repêché ceci impliquerait probablement que Hemsky jouerait à l’aile gauche et que Ryan Smyth ne serait pas repêché.

Échange possible : les Hurricanes ont clairement divulgué que leur choix de 1ere ronde (8e au total) était disponible. Edmonton pourrait échanger Sam Gagné (+bonbon) contre ce premier choix. Ils pourraient ainsi repêcher un attaquant de premier plan en Yakupov et repêche un défenseur de l’ouest canadien en Griffin Reinhart palliant ainsi à leurs deux principales lacunes.

Joueur potentiellement repêché : Yakupov, Murray

Colombus

Besoin : centre #1, attaquants

L’année dernière Colombus a transigé pour obtenir le joueur de centre Jeff Carter. L’expérience n’a pas été concluante avec Rick Nash et celui-ci a été échangé à LA.

Ceci nous révèle ce que Colombus recherche dans un centre #1 : principalement un habile marqueur et Galchenyuk est le joueur qui correspond le plus à ce profil dans ceux le top du draft.

Un échange probablement éminent impliquant Rick Nash viendra toutefois brouiller les cartes : les joueurs acquis par Colombus dans une telle transaction pourraient changer grandement les besoins de ceux-ci.

Ce qui est toutefois sûr c’est que Colombus est déjà bien garni à la défense :

Ils ont 4 gros contrats : Wisniewski, Tyutin, Johnson et Methot

Ainsi que 2 joueurs très prometteurs : Nikitin et Moore

Les recruteurs de Colombus auraient assisté à beaucoup de matchs des Stings de Sarnia (équipe junior de Yakupov et Galchenyuk) lors des dernières années.

Joueur potentiellement repêché: Yakupov, Galchenyuk, Forsberg

Montreal

Besoin : centre #1

Se débarrasser de Gomez créera un vide au centre.

L’apparition de Marc Bergevin au mock draft de TSN laissait croire que Bergevin avait une préférence pour Galchenyuk.

Certaines conversations avec Trevor Timmins laissent croire qu’il a un penchant pour Teravainen

http://legrandclub.rds.ca/profils/170008/posts/143253

Joueur potentiellement repêché: Grigorenko, Galchenyuk

Je prédis exactement que Grigorenko sera repêché par le CH. Grigorenko est un habile passeur avec une très bonne vision du jeu et très bon sur le jeu de puissance. Il est dans ce sens similaire à Gomez et Desharnais. Il correspond aux caractéristiques du gros joueur de centre #1 tant recherché par Montreal depuis des années.

Repêcher Grigorenko au 3e rang implique qu’il serait plus facile de le signer à prix similaire à Huberdeau(3.175M$) que s’il n’était repêché 1er ou 2e (contrat de 3.75M$ habituellement). Cette petite différence aura un impact comme je le démontrai plus loin.

New York Islanders

Besoins : défense, centre, ailer, gardien

Défense :

Ils ont tenté d’acquérir les droits d’un défenseur offensif l’année dernière (Ehrhoff), mais n’ont pas réussi à le signer

Ils ont seulement 3 défenseurs NHL signés pour l’année prochaine : Streit, Hamonic, MacDonald

Ils ont aussi de Haan dans la AHL.

Centre :

Ils ont invité Yashin à leur camp l’année dernière, mais n’ont pas réussi à le signer. Nielsen est présentement leur 2e centre après Tavares.

Aile :

Ils n’ont toujours pas signé Parenteau et celui-ci a laissé savoir qu’il touchera l’autonomie le 1er juillet prochain.

Joueur potentiellement repêché : Yakupov, Galchenyuk, Grigorenko, Forsberg, Murray (bref le meilleur qui reste) ou même Dumba

Toronto

Besoins : centre #1, se grossir à l’attaque, gardien

Menace possible :

Dans, un échange avec Colombus impliquant ou non Rick Nash Toronto pourrait échanger son choix de 1ere ronde (5e au total) avec celui de Colombus (2e au total) et par la même occasion mettre la main sur Grigorenko. Brian Burke a manifesté ouvertement son intérêt pour le joueur, mais il a aussi mentionné qu’il ne croyait pas que Grigorenko puisse jouer dans la ligue nationale l’année prochaine, et ce, juste après avoir eu une conversation avec son entraîneur Patrick Roy…

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/sports/remparts/201203/23/01-4508907-le-pdg-des-leafs-ne-voit-pas-grigorenko-dans-la-lnh-lan-prochain.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B9_sports_751_section_POS3

Note : si tel était le cas, je suppose que Rick Dudley en aurait fait part à Marc Bergevin, à moins que Rick

Dudley ne soit lui-même pas au courant d’un tel possible échange

Actuellement, 1 Russe et 1 Biélorusse avec Toronto
Plusieurs joueurs russes repêchés par l’organisation

Bien Toronto soit bien garnie à la défense, Trouba rentre parfaitement dans le moule du défenseur type de Brian Burke.

Joueur potentiellement repêché : Galchenyuk, Grigorenko, Faksa, Trouba

ÉTAPE #2 - Échanger Kaberle et Weber

Choix de 2e ronde NYI 2012 (34e au total)

Annulation du choix conditionnel de 5e ronde impliqué dans la transaction de Wisniewski (équivalent au Choix de 4e ronde MTL 2013, car Choix de 5e ronde MTL 2012 échangé à Calgary)

Kaberle

Weber

Le 18 février 2011, Kaberle a été échangé de Toronto à Boston en échange de

Joe Colborne (16e au total 2008)

Choix de 1ere ronde BOS 2011

Choix de 2e ronde BOS 2012 conditionnel à ce que BOS atteigne la finale de Coupe Stanley ou signe Kaberle

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom%C3%A1%C5%A1_Kaberle

Bien que Kaberle ait toutefois perdu de la valeur depuis sa prestation décevante selon plusieurs en séries avec les Bruins, celui-ci reste toute de même le 16e défenseur de la ligue avec le plus de points sur l’avantage numérique, et ce, malgré une absence de plusieurs parties. (Il faut aussi tenir compte du fait que les équipes surpayent à la date limite des transactions afin de corriger des lacunes à la dernière minute)

Échange de Spacek

Pierre Gauthier : « Les défenseurs à caractère offensif sont un denrée rare dans la ligue »

Motivation des Islanders à effectuer cette transaction

Insuccès à signer Ehrhoff l’année dernière

Le duo Kaberle – Streit reformerait sur l’avantage numérique un duo similaire à Markov – Streit et Kaberle - McCabe (soit respectivement les meilleurs moments de Streit et Kaberle)

Kaberle a 31pts en 70 parties (à un rythme de 44pts en 82 parties avec le CH)

Ehrhoff a 32pts en 66 parties

3 défenseurs de signés pour l’année prochaine (Streit, MacDonald, Hamonic) pour un total de seulement 5,525M$ d’engagés pour la défense

Toutefois, ils ont quelques défenseurs gauchers qui pourraient faire le saut éventuellement (de Haan, Ness, Donovan, etc.)

NYI jouent à quatre attaquants + Streit sur la première vague du jeu de puissance

Il y aurait aussi des rumeurs selon lesquelles Streit aurait plaidé en la faveur du jeune Yannick Weber à la direction des Islanders.

Échanger Weber libèrera de la place sous le plafond salarial (0,85M$)

Pourquoi les Islanders n’ont pas acquis Kaberle directement des Hurricanes lorsque celui-ci était disponible?

Ils avaient besoin de libérer des salaires avec de pouvoir l’accueillir (contraintes budgétaires)

Ils avaient durant la saison environ 11M$ engagés à la défense avec Eaton, Jurcina, Staios qui sont maintenant tous agents libres.

ÉTAPE #3 – Acquisition de Jarome Iginla

Iginla

Cole

Desharnais

Choix de 2e ronde NYI 2012 (34e au total)

Choix de 2e ronde CGY 2013

Si l’on se rappelle de l’échange qui a envoyé Cammalleri à Calgary le 12 janvier 2012

Bourque

Holland

Choix de 2e ronde CGY 2013

Cammalleri

Ramo

Choix de 5e ronde MTL 2012 (124e au total)

Lorsque l’on combine les deux échanges nous avons :

Iginla

Bourque

Holland

Cammalleri

Cole

Desharnais

Ramo

Choix de 2e ronde NYI 2012 (34e au total)

Choix de 5e ronde MTL 2012 (124e au total)

Iginla

Repêché par Bob Gainey et les Stars de Dallas lors du repêchage de 1995, mais échangé quelques mois plus tard avec Corey Millen pour les droits de Joe Nieuwendyk avant même qu’Iginla ait joué une seule partie dans la NHL. Cette transaction a contribué à la conquête de la coupe Stanley des Stars en 1999, mais dans une perspective de long terme on pourrait la qualifier d’erreur connaissant le parcours qu’Iginla a connu par la suite. L’acquisition d’Iginla serait une sorte de rédemption pour Bob Gainey.

Bien qu’Iginla ait participé à la finale de la coupe Stanley en 2004 (meneur de son équipe avec 22pts +13), celui-ci ne l’a jamais remporté.

Meilleur pointeur de son équipe lors des 11 dernières saisons

Marqueur de plus de 30 buts lors des 11 dernières saisons

Il n’a pas raté un seul match lors des 5 dernières saisons

Leader de son équipe et probablement l’unique raison pour laquelle les Flames ne croupissent pas dans les bas-fonds

Joueur très versatile : peut se battre, physique, deuxième option de qualité pour les mises en jeu, etc.

Il aura 35 ans cet été

Il a eu des maux de dos au début de la saison

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/flames-say-theyre-not-worried-about-jarome-iginlas-back-problems/

“Far more shocking than his admission he may not want to be around for a sizeable overhaul were the shocking poll results in the Calgary Sun Monday showing that 49% want Iginla traded.”

http://www.ottawasun.com/2012/04/09/door-opening-for-iginla-deal

La fin de Brent Sutter à Calgary (décision mutuelle)

« J'ai eu plusieurs discussions avec Jay depuis la fin de la saison et nous avons constaté qu'il était dans mon meilleur intérêt et celui de l'équipe de s'orienter autrement, a noté Sutter. Je souhaite aux Flames la meilleure des chances. »

http://www.rds.ca/hockey/chroniques/338468.html

Indique un changement possible de direction de la part de l’équipe qui pourrait la rendre non-compétitive à court terme (image : le rat quitte le navire)

Analyse sommaire de la transaction

Qualité vs Quantité

Attaquants bons dans les deux zones vs attaquants dominants dans la zone offensive seulement

Masse salariale : 10,333M$ vs 11,35M$, soit environ 1M$ de plus pour Calgary

Le prix payé par Montréal peut sembler élevé, mais c’est le prix à payer pour Iginla et surtout pour que Calgary ne soit pas tenté de le mettre publiquement sur le marché comme Colombus l’a fait avec Nash.

La Difficulté / Impossibilité à bouger Rick Nash à la date limite des transactions (gros contrat avec impact sur la masse salariale similaire à celui d’Iginla) devrait inciter Calgary à échanger Iginla lors du prochain repêchage et non lors de la date limite la saison prochaine. L’autre option serait de le re-signer, sinon ils le perdront pour rien alors que l’organisation a clairement besoin de profondeur.

Spéculation : Si Pierre Gauthier était si heureux après l’échange de Cammalleri s’était parce qu’il venait non-officiellement de mettre la main sur Iginla.

Besoins des Flames

Les Flames étaient l’une des équipes les plus faibles à la position de centre la saison dernière

Olli Jokinen, 82PJ, 61pts

Matt Stajan, 61PJ, 18pts (saison de 76PJ, 31pts l’année dernière)

Mikael Backlund, 41PJ, 11pts (saison de 73PJ, 25pts l’année dernière)

Brendan Morrison 39PJ, 11pts (échangé aux Blackhawks)

Roman Horak, 61PJ, 11pts

Blair Jones, 43PJ, 8pts

Lance Bouma, 27PJ, 3pts

Leur meilleur joueur de centre (Olli Jokinen) a 33 ans et est agent libre sans restriction ce 1er juillet

Aucun centre capable de piloter une 2e unité sur l’avantage numérique (excluant Jokinen).

Celui qui occupe actuellement ce poste est Mikael Backlund et il a récolté seulement 3pts en 46 :37 minutes de temps de jeu sur l’avantage numérique cette saison.

Calgary, une des équipes avec la banque de prospects la plus pauvre et avec la 8e plus vieille moyenne d’âge selon Capgeek

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/nhl_organisation_rankings/?start=25

Aucun prospect notable au centre outre Markus Granlund
            45e au total 2011
            18 ans
            5 ft 11 in, 172 livres (il a encore besoin de se développer physiquement)
http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/markus_granlund
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markus_Granlund

Jay Feaster a reconnu qu’il y avait un manque de joueurs de 22-26 ans dans l’organisation des Flames et qu’il avait l’intention d’en acquérir : il a donc signé Cervenka qui jouait dans la KHL la saison dernière.

La signature de Cervenka et l’acquisition potentielle de Desharnais viendrait combler à la fois le vide organisationnel de joueurs de centre et de joueurs de 22-26 ans

L’alignement des Flames à l’attaque pourrait donc ressembler à quelque chose s’apparentant à ceci la saison prochaine :

Tanguay - Cervenka - Glencross

Cammalleri - Desharnais - Cole

Baertchi - Stajan - Aliu

Comeau - Backlund - Jackman

(Note: les Flames pourraient aussi utiliser les droits sur Jokinen afin d’acquérir un pick)

Cervenko est un centre marqueur de buts qui devrait fonctionner mieux avec un allier fin passeur tel que Tanguay.

Le trio de Desharnais a déjà fait ses preuves quelques matchs à Montréal.

Autres considérations

Depuis l’arrivée de Mike Cammalleri, les Flames de Calgary sont la seule équipe qui a 4 contrats qui ont un impact de plus de 5,8M$ sur leur masse salariale :

Jarome Iginla 7M$

Jay Bouwmeester 6,680M$

Mike Cammalleri 6M$

Miika Kiprusoff 5,833M$

Les Flames ont échangé leurs 2 choix de 2e ronde pour les repêchages de 2012 et de 2013. Jay Feaster a d’ailleurs mentionné publiquement qu’il avait clairement l’intention de les récupérer et sa meilleure pour ne pas dire seule monnaie d’échange ayant de la valeur est évidemment Iginla.

Pourquoi échanger Iginla à Montréal plutôt qu’à une autre équipe?

Le principal attrait : Mike Cammalleri ie ils cherchent un marqueur potentiel de 30-40 buts pour combler le vide de ceux d’Iginla

Cela prend un partenaire qui a de la profondeur à donner en échange : choix au repêchage + joueurs

CH : équipe de l’est, canadienne et aspirante à la coupe(?)

Pourquoi une transaction en deux temps?

Aider Calgary à faire les séries cette année

Aider le CH à finir dans les bas fonds cette année

Freins possibles à la transaction

Erik Cole a une clause de non-échange (NTC) dont les particularités me sont inconnues. Toutefois, Cammalleri et Bourque avaient aussi une telle clause à leur contrat et ceci n’a pas été un frein à la première transaction.

Jarome Iginla a une clause de non-mouvement sur son contrat. Il a donc droit de regard sur toute transaction l’impliquant. Il n’acceptera probablement pas d’être échangé à une équipe qui n’a pas de bonnes chances de remporter la coupe Stanley l’année prochaine. Considérera-t-il le CH comme une telle équipe?

ÉTAPE #4 - Acquisition des droits sur Ryan Suter et des frères Kostitsyn(?)

Sergei Kostitsyn

Andrei Kostitsyn (droits)

Ryan Suter (droits)

Rene Bourque

Choix de 2e ronde NSH 2012

Choix de 2e ronde NSH 2013

Ryan Suter

Ryan Suter est le quart-arrière du meilleur jeu de puissance de la ligue (NSH PP 21,6% 1er rang)

Il est le 3e défenseur avec le plus de point sur l’avantage numérique avec 25 (derrière Campbell et Karlsson)

Il est le 3e défenseur le plus utilisé par partie avec 26 :30 de temps de jeu en moyenne

Il excelle aussi dans les moments critiques : ex garder une avance en fin de période

Pourquoi Nashville se départirait-elle de leur général à la ligne bleue Ryan Suter?

Historiquement, Nashville a toujours eu une masse salariale qui s’approchait du plancher.

Quatre joueurs de la formation pourraient se voir offrir un salaire de plus de 6 millions l’année prochaine :

Pekka Rinne: Il a signé cette année un contrat de 7 millions pour 7 ans qui rentrera en vigueur l’année prochaine, soit une augmentation en salaire à payer de 3 millions.

Shea Weaber: Il sera agent libre avec compensation cet été. Il a actuellement un salaire de 7,5M$ et devrait avoir autant sinon plus cet été.

Ryan Suter: Il est agent libre sans compensation cet été et Nashville pourrait le perdre pour rien. Il pourrait toucher facilement 7M$ sur le marché des joueurs autonomes.

Alexander Radulov: Bien que la probabilité qu’il retourne en KHL l’année prochaine pour écouler sa dernière année de contrat avec le Salavat Yulaev Ufa soit élevée, Nashville pourra tenter de lui offrir un onéreux contrat puisque que les Prédateurs n’ont aucune autre vedette offensive.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/why-did-khl-allow-alex-radulov-leave-nashville-211640021.html

J’estime qu’il est plus probable que Nashville offre un gros contrat à Radulov avant Suter : simple question de répartition des ressources entre attaque et défense. De plus, Nashville ont plusieurs bons prospects à la défense qui pourraient prendre la relève (Josi). Les Prédateurs sont reconnus comme une organisation qui forme d’excellents défenseurs à la tonne.

L’été dernier, Nashville avait fait une offre de 4,75M$ à Shea Weber avant de demander eux-mêmes l’arbitrage.

http://sports.nationalpost.com/2011/08/02/shea-weber-beard-and-predators-enter-arbitration-hearing/

Je doute que Suter accepte une offre similaire alors qu’il sait très bien qu’il peut toucher 7M$ sur le marché des joueurs autonomes. Il serait donc étonnant que Nashville puisse garder les 2 défenseurs alors que la seule équipe qui a deux défenseurs qui ont un salaire cette année de plus de 7M$ est Chicago, une équipe qui dépense près du plafond salarial, avec Duncan Keith à 8M$ et Brent Seabrook à 7M$.

De plus, aucune organisation dans la ligue nationale n’a actuellement sur sa liste de paie 4 joueurs dont l’impact sur la masse salariale est de plus de 6 millions, et ce, incluant les équipes qui dépensent jusqu’au plafond salarial.

Couteau à double tranchant : Plus Nashville va loin en série, plus la concession amasse de l’argent et plus les agents libres sont incités à rester avec l’équipe, toutefois par la même occasion plus la valeur des agents libres augmente à cause de leurs bonnes performances.

À la fin la saison 2006-2007, les Flyers ont terminé au dernier rang de la ligue alors qu’ils avaient fait les séries lors des 11 dernières saisons. (Cette situation vous dit-elle quelque chose?)

Comme plusieurs équipes avant elle dont les probabilités de faire les séries étaient faibles à l’approche de la date limite des transactions, Philadelphie s’est départie d’un agent libre sans restriction. Le 15 février 2007, 12 jours avant la date limite des transactions, les Flyers ont échangé le vétéran Peter Forsberg (agent libre sans restriction) contre Ryan Parent (18e choix au total 2005), Scottie Upshall (6e choix au total 2002) ainsi que les choix de 1ere et de 3e ronde de Nashville en 2007.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Forsberg

Le 18 juin 2007, soit 4 jours avant le repêchage, Nashville a échangé les droits sur les agents libres Scott Hartnell et Kimmo Timonen à Philadelphie en échange du 1er choix qu’ils avaient initialement donné dans l’échange de Forsberg quelques mois plus tôt. Ces deux joueurs ont signé avec les Flyers et font encore partie à ce jour du noyau de l’équipe.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Hartnell

Pourquoi Nashville échangerait-elle les droits de Ryan Suter au CH plutôt qu’à une autre équipe?

Idéalement, Nashville voudrait envoyer Suter dans l’est.

Si Nashville attend au 1er Juillet pour essayer de convaincre Suter de signer avec eux et qu’ils échouent, Suter sera inévitablement courtisé par les Red wings, un rival de division, qui chercheront un remplaçant à Lidstrom.

La CH leur a « donné » Sergei Kostitsyn le 29 juin 2010 dans un échange impliquant des considérations futures…

Le CH détient les 2 choix de 2e ronde de Nashville en otage.

Le CH les a aidé en leur échangeant Gill et Kostitsyn afin d’augmenter les chances des Prédateurs de se rendre loin en séries alors qu’ils auraient potentiellement pu avoir plus pour eux.

De plus, du côté du CH, la blessure à Markov justifierait l’acquisition d’un autre défenseur occupant un rôle similaire chez le CH (auprès de Markov lui-même).

Sergei Kostitsyn

Sergei Kostitsyn a été échangé après les séries cendrillons du CH en 2010 où il n’a pris part qu’à 5 parties dans un rôle très limité. Par la même occasion, Eller a été acquis des Blues dans l’échange d’Halak. Ces deux joueurs n’ont donc jamais joué une seule partie ensemble. Sergei Kostitsyn est un incroyable allier passeur qui a une bonne vision du jeu et Eller un centre plutôt marqueur que fabriquant de jeux (voir : plus de buts que de passes dans ses statistiques). Un trio S. Kostitsyn – Eller – A. Kostitsyn serait selon moi encore plus productif qu’un trio A. Kostitsyn – Eller – Moen. Sergei Kostitsyn est devenu un joueur très fiable défensivement à Nashville. En compagnie de Fisher et Erat, il joue contre les meilleurs trios adverses. Un trio S. Kostitsyn – Eller – Gionta pourrait remplir une tâche similaire avec le CH. Il a aussi acquis plus d’expérience en séries éliminatoires avec Nashville qu’il n’aurait été possible avec le CH (22 vs 7 parties).

Andrei Kostitsyn

Joueur repêché par le Canadien en qui ils ont beaucoup investi et qui a amélioré son jeu en défensive lors des dernières années

Sa « location » à Nashville lui permet d’acquérir de l’expérience de qualité en séries dans un rôle important (ce qu’il aurait été impossible cette année à Montréal)

Il joue sur le premier trio à Nashville en compagnie de Legwand et Radulov, un trio constitué de manière similaire à celui que j’envisage soit S. Kostitsyn – Eller – A. Kostitsyn.

René Bourque

Pourquoi ce joueur intéresserait-il les Prédateurs?

Joueur qui joue dans les 2 zones

« Fit » le moule des Prédateurs : rapide, physique, fait des jeux simples, envoie la rondelle au filet

Bon rapport production offensive / impact sur masse salariale (27buts/50pts vs 3,333M$)

Impact sur la masse salariale plus grand que salaire versé (13,333M$ vs 12M$ pour les 4 années restantes)

Question : Avec les changements apportés jusqu’ici, considérez-vous le CH comme une équipe prétendante à la coupe Stanley?

ÉTAPE #5 - Signature de Zach Parise

La question précédente est importante, car une réponse affirmative pourrait influencer le choix de Zach Parise de signer à MTL.

Cette dernière étape est la plus risquée, car c’est celle qui est la moins sous le contrôle de l’organisation de MTL

Pourquoi est-ce que Zach Parise en tant qu’agent libre signerait à MTL?

0a. Signature de Kovalchuk (allier gauche de premier trio) par Lou (affront)

0b. Les Devils n’ont pas offert un contrat à long terme à la dernière année d’autonomie avec compensation de leur joueur de concession (insulte)

Lou a un penchant pour les gros joueurs; il a laissé aller Gionta

1. Le CH l’équipe la plus en vue après plusieurs transactions/acquisitions Blockbuster

Parise veut absolument gagner

Ex Hossa avec Pittsburgh, Détroit, Chicago

Ex Les Flyers après qu’ils aient signé Hartnell et Timonen acquis par échange ont signé Daniel Brière sur le marché des agents libres. Daniel Brière a dit avoir préféré les Flyers au CH, car ils avaient plus de chance de remporter la coupe Stanley, et ce, même si les Flyers venaient de terminer au tout dernier rang de la ligue nationale. Cela vous dit quelque chose? Ceci pourrait être une motivation d’autant plus importante si les Devils ne se rendre pas loin en série cette année.

NJ : pas des prétendants à la coupe, bons joueurs qui se font vieux : Brodeur et Elias (l’équipe avec la moyenne d’âge la plus élevée de la ligue)

2. Jouer avec un meilleur joueur de centre que Zajac/Henrique et AD que Kovalchuk!

Plekanec > Zajac/Henrique et Iginla > Kovalchuk

Plekanec a un don particulier pour créer des chances d’échappée ou de 2 contre 1, ce que Parise raffole

Plekanec excelle aussi dans ces situations

Parise – Plekanec – Iginla est un trio a construction similaire de Parise – Zajac – Langenbrunner avec lesquels il a connu ses meilleures saisons

3. Être l’allié le plus important sur son trio

Ne pas être dans l’ombre de Kovalchuk

4. Être le joueur le mieux payer de son équipe

Salaire de 11M$ pour Kovalchuk la saison prochaine

5. Problèmes financiers des Devils

6. Désavantage numérique

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?fetchKey=20122ALLSASALL&sort=shortHandedPoints&viewName=scoringLeaders

http://video.nhl.com/videocenter/console?hlp=8474641&fr=false

7. Sans Parise, les Devils n’ont pas réussi à faire les séries

8. Le CH pratique un style de jeu congruent avec celui de Parise (joueurs rapides, relance rapide des défenseurs).

ÉTAPE BONIE/OPTIONNELLE – Signature de Justin Schultz

Besoin restant : un 4e défenseur droitier sur le jeu de puissance

La paire Diaz – Subban a été très peu productive sur le jeu de puissance (toutefois elle a resté intacte très peu de temps).

PK Subban a connu ses meilleurs moments avec Wisniewski sur le jeu de puissance

Justin Schultz agirait comme remplaçant de Wisniewski sur le jeu de puissance et jouerait sur la 3e paire de défense à 5v5 aux côtés d’Emelin.

Justin Schultz a un « plafond » au niveau talent plus élevé que Diaz, toutefois la question reste à savoir si son jeu défensif est assez développé pour jouer dans la ligue nationale l’année prochaine sur une 3e paire et si c’est un joueur sur lequel l’entraîneur pourrait compter pour se rendre en finale de la coupe Stanley l’année prochaine (ce qui est beaucoup demander pour un défenseur recru à sa première année dans la ligue).

À 5v5, Emelin et Diaz ont démontré une bonne chimie sur la glace pour le peu de temps qu’ils ont joué ensemble.

Diaz a dans l’ensemble amélioré son jeu défensif tout au long de la saison (position de bâton, etc.) et fait une job honnête sur le désavantage numérique. Cette période/saison d’adaptation qui est chose du passé pour Diaz, contrairement à Schultz qui devra inévitablement passer par là.

La paire Emelin-Diaz n’aurait probablement rien à avenir à aucune 3e paire de défense de la ligue.

Cette dernière décision demanderait une évaluation approfondie de Justin Schultz, laquelle je ne peux faire (je ne l’ai jamais vu jouer).

ÉPILOGUE – Gomez dans la AHL

Gomez n’a pratiquement aucune valeur sur le marché des transactions.

Seule une équipe qui lutte pour atteindre le plancher salarial et qui est très faible à la position de centre pourrait peut-être être intéressé à ces services en donnant pratiquement rien en échange.

Longshot : Phoenix

Remplacement de Langkow (salaire de 4,5M$ cette année vs Gomez à 5.5 et 4.5M$ pour les 2 prochaines années) acquis en échange de Lee Stempniake fin août l’an passé.

Salaire de Gomez inférieur à l’impact sur la masse salariale

Le CH pourrait ainsi récupérer son choix de 7e ronde en 2012 (échangé dans la transaction amenant Nokelainen à Montréal)

Si le CH s'était intéressé momentanément l'année dernière à Brad Richards, c'est que selon moi ils avaient déjà un plan en place pour le transiger.

Coïncidence?

Ce n’est pas un hasard que Gomez ait joué continuellement sur l’avantage numérique cette année, malgré ses piètres performances sur la glace

De plus, s’il y a confirmation que l’équipe déménage, ce serait un beau petit cadeau (de grec) pour la direction qui succèdera.

L’option la plus plausible est que Gomez se retrouve dans les mineures la saison prochaine. Gomez a tout de même de l’expérience en séries éliminatoires et pourrait être rappelé en séries éliminatoires si Grigorenko ne peut faire le travail puisqu’il n’y a pas de plafond salarial en séries. Ce serait une option très coûteuse pour les propriétaires, mais aurait tout le moins l’utilité d’une police d’assurance pour les séries. Gomez pourrait aussi prêter à une équipe comme l'a été Christobal Huet.

L’option du rachat du contrat de Gomez est la seule qui ne sera pas envisagée : l’impact sur la masse salariale aurait un impact trop important comme il sera démontré plus loin (l’alignement à 20 joueurs dépassera le 70,3M$).

Alignement

Parise (A) – Plekanec – Iginla (A)

Pacioretty – Grigorenko – A. Kostitsyn

S. Kostitsyn – Eller – Gionta (C)

Darche – White – Moen

AHL: Geoffrion, Leblanc, Palushaj, Gomez

Suter (A) – Subban

Markov (A) – Gorges (A)

Emelin – Diaz

AHL : St-Denis, Mitera, Beaulieu, Tinordi, Ellis

Attaque aussi bonne et diversifiée que celle des Flyers, mais meilleure défensivement et avec de plus gros centres (wow, qui l’aurait cru?)

1er trio

Les 3 attaquants les plus complets (fiables dans les 2 zones et particulièrement en zone défensive)

Contre la Qualité de la compétition la plus élevée

Trois joueurs qui peuvent provoquer et/ou profiter des revirements des joueurs de l’équipe adverse

2e trio

Mandats offensifs

Mises en jeu en territoire offensif

Utilisation similaire au trio actuel de Desharnais

Pacioretty – Desharnais – Kostitsyn a été une combinaison très efficace l’année dernière bien que très peu utilisée. Celle-ci devrait être encore plus efficace.

3e trio

Contre la 2e plus grande qualité de compétition

Mise en jeu territoire défensif

S. Kostitsyn était utilisé contre les meilleurs trios adverses à Nashville

S. Kostitsyn (passeur) très bon complément à Eller

Gionta, le leader sur le trio, peut aider les autres à se développer défensivement

Note : Si Grigorenko se développe physiquement rapidement / s’acclimate facilement au jeu de la ligue nationale, Gionta et A. Kostisyn pourrait être interchangé.

Leblanc ne fait pas partie de mon alignement pour les raisons suivantes :

Il doit d’abord se développer physiquement et améliorer quelques facettes de son jeu

Son inclusion dans l’équipe fera en sorte de la masse salariale dépasserait les 70M$ selon mes estimations (Il commande un salaire d’environ 1.17M$)

Il serait fort improbable que White signe un contrat à deux volets alors que celui qui viendra à échéance cette saison est à un volet

Geoffrion et Leblanc pourrait faire des apparitions en séries éliminatoires à la place de Darche / White.

Défensive

Il s’agirait probablement de la défensive la plus mobile de la ligue (le moins mobile étant Gorges, ce qui n’est pas peu dire). Le CH aurait aussi un « Big 3 » offensif à la ligue bleue en Suter, Subban et Markov. Quatre des six défenseurs amorceront leur période d’« apogée » débutant autour de l’âge de 26-27 ans pour les défenseurs. Subban le jeune prodige à 23 ans et Markov à 33 ans (qui a connu peu d’actions lors des deux dernières années) peuvent aussi être considérés comme au début et à la fin respectivement de leurs meilleures années.

Les 2 premières paires de défense pourraient chacune être facilement la première paire défense de toutes les équipes de la NHL. Elles pourraient théoriquement chacune jouer 30mins dans un match.

Le CH aurait aussi probablement les meilleures unités spéciales de la ligue.

Chacun des joueurs de la formation méritent une place sur celles-ci

Avantage numérique

Parise – Plekanec – Iginla

Markov - Suter

Kostitsyn/Pacioretty – Grigorenko – Gionta

Subban - Diaz

Désavantage numérique

Moen – Eller

Gorges – Subban

Parise – Plekanec

Suter - Diaz

Darche/Geoffrion - Leblanc/White

Markov - Emelin

Retour sur les échanges effectués avant et durant la saison 2011-2012

Signature de Cole

Erik Cole a servi de mentor à Pacioretty tout au long de la saison.

Spacek VS Kaberle

La blessure à Markov aura justifié l’acquisition de Kaberle, mais le véritable motif latent était l’acquisition d’une monnaie d’échange pour récupérer des choix au repêchage

De plus, l’acquisition de Kaberle camoufle aux autres DG de la ligue l’intention du CH d’acquérir Ryan Suter (3e défenseur à caractère offensif à gros salaire).

Cammalleri VS Bourque

Le départ de Mike Cammalleri laisse la place (masse salariale et utilisation) à un autre allier gauche de premier trio à petit gabarit beaucoup plus complet en Zach Parise.

Pierre Gauthier : « Dans chaque il y a des joueurs qui produisent plus que leur impact sur la masse salariale et d’autres qui produisent moins ».

Bourque : acquisition d’une monnaie d’échange pour Nashville

Rapport production / impact sur la masse salarial attrayant

Gill et Kostitsyn VS Geoffrion et 2x choix de 2e ronde

Gill : établir une marque élevée plus d’une semaine avant la date limite

Kostitsyn : établir une marque basse la journée même de la date limite

Kaberle, Cole, Desharnais : des joueurs qui produisent en saison régulière, mais qui ont eu / auront des difficultés en séries éliminatoires.

Masse salariale pour la saison 2012-2013

Il y a actuellement de l’incertitude concernant la négociation de la convention collective (CBA) cet été. Certains croient que le plafond salarial pourrait baisser l’année prochaine, car les conventions collectives récemment négociées par la NBA et la MLB accordent un pourcentage de 50% et 47% des revenus de la ligue aux joueurs alors que la LNH accorde 57%. Si réduction du pourcentage il y a, je crois que cette réduction sera graduelle (d’environ -1% par année) et sera accompagnée de la reconnaissance de d’autres types de revenus (Hockey Related Revenues) qui n’entrent actuellement pas dans le calcul des revenus éligibles.

À la rencontre des directeurs généraux en Floride, Pierre Gauthier mentionnait que les dernières signatures de joueurs étaient établies comme si le plafond salarial resterait stable la saison prochaine.

Je crois pour ma part qu’il devrait y avoir une augmentation du plafond salarial la saison prochaine pour les raisons suivantes :

Tendance : accélération de la croissance des revenus de la ligue dans les dernières années

Croissance du PIB réel de 3% aux États-Unis au 4e trimestre 2011

Déménagement de l’équipe d’Atlanta (concession déficitaire) à Winnipeg (concession potentiellement profitable)

Le CH n’a pas les séries et a selon les chiffres rapportés par la NHL fait amphithéâtre comble toute la saison prenant ainsi la place d’une équipe des bas-fonds l’année dernière (disons les Panthers) qui n’aurait pas vendu autant de billets dans la même situation.

La chaude lutte pour les séries qui s’est conclue jusqu’aux derniers matchs a dû garder l’intérêt des partisans de plusieurs formations et aider la vente de billets.

Voici les pourcentages de croissance du plafond salarial lors des dernières années ainsi qu’une projection de croissance de 10% pour l’année prochaine.

2012-2013 70.7 10.00%

2011-2012 64.3 8.25%

2010-2011 59.4 4.58%

2009-2010 56.8 0.18%

2008-2009 56.7 12.72%

2007-2008 50.3 14.32%

2006-2007 44 12.82%

2005-2006 39 -

Beaucoup d’équipe qui ont beaucoup de place sur la masse comme les Red wings pourraient se faire prendre les culottes à terre s’ils ne peuvent signer au moins un des deux agents libres d’impact cet été.

Prédiction des contrats octroyés pendant l’entre-saison

Parise (7M$ / 10ans)

Suter (7M$ / 10ans)

Price (6,3M$ / 6ans) Comparables: Rinne, Lundqvist, Ward, Fleury, Lehtonen

A. Kostitsyn (4M$ / 3ans) Comparable: David Jones

Subban (3,75M$ / 2ans) (Contrat de transition) Comparables: Hedman, Johnson

Grigorenko (3,175M$ / 3ans) (ELC) Comparable : Huberdeau

S. Kostitsyn (2,75M$ / 2ans) (Légère augmentation)

Moen (1,7M$ / 3ans) Comparables : Campbell, Talbot

Eller (1,6M$ / 2ans) (Contrat de transition) Comparable : Turris

Emelin (1,1M$ / 1an) (Idéalement 2 ans, mais à ce prix l’agent visera l’autonomie l’an prochain)

Diaz (1,1M$ / 1an) (Idéalement 2 ans, mais à ce prix l’agent visera l’autonomie l’an prochain)

Darche (0,7M$ / 1an)

White (0,625M$ / 1an)

Geoffrion (0,85M$ / 2ans) (à deux volets)

Carey Price

Admissible à l’arbitrage (plus de 4 années dans la NHL)

Il y a très peu de gardien #1 comparable qui ont signé un gros contrat RFA (seuls comparables admissibles dans le processus d'arbitrage)

http://proicehockey.about.com/od/nhlfreeagents/a/arbitration.htm

Statistiques lors de l’octroi des contrats de gardiens RFA comparables

Comparatif borne supérieure : Lundqvist, Ward

Comparatif borne inférieure : Fleury, Lehtonen

Tous les autres contrats à haut salaire pour les gardiens #1 ont été octroyés alors qu’ils devenaient UFA.

Contrat le plus récent qui entre en vigueur la saison prochaine : Rinne 7M$ / 7ans

Un impact de 9% sur le cap salarial de l’année prochaine (70,3M$), soit entre les comparables de Fleury et Rinne donnerait un « cap hit » de 6,3M$ bon pour le 3e rang ex aequo avec Cam Ward des gardiens les mieux payés de la ligue.

Subban

Menace de soumission d’une « offer sheet » :

Le salaire offert par une autre équipe qui dépose un « offer sheet » devra être supérieur à 3,75M$, ce qui implique une compensation en droits de repêchage d’un choix de 1ere ronde ainsi que d’un choix de 3e ronde. Hors le repêchage de 2013 devrait être l’un des meilleurs depuis des années. Le sacrifice d’un choix de 1ere ronde en 2013 est un pensez-y bien!

Grigorenko

Le contrat de Grigorenko est le contrat tampon qui pourrait potentiellement être revu à la baisse si mes autres prédictions de contrat s’avèrent à sous-estimer dans l’ensemble la réalité. La plupart des équipes qui repêchent dans le top3 sont des équipes qui sont loin d’atteindre le plafond salarial et même luttent pour atteindre le plancher. Ils ont donc un incitatif à gonfler les bonus afin que les contrats ELC octroyés aient le plus grand impact possible sur la masse. Il est rare de voir une équipe qui lutte avec le plafond repêcher si haut. Un « bargain » pourrait donc possiblement être négocié.

Les seuls attaquants repêchés dans le top3 depuis le lock-out qui ont eu un contrat avec un impact sur la masse salariale en deçà de 3 millions sont Van Riemsdyk (2e au total 2007) qui avait signé pour 1,654M$ avec bonus qui a fait partie de l’alignement des Flyers en 2009-10 seulement, Jordan Staal (2e au total 2006) avec 2,2M$ qui a commencé à jouer dès la saison suivante et Bobby Ryan (2e au total 2005) avec 1,921$ qui a rejoint les Ducks en 2007-08 seulement.

FORWARDS
Zach Parise ($7.000m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Jarome Iginla ($7.000m)
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Mikhail Grigorenko ($3.175m) / Andrei Kostitsyn ($4.000m)
Sergei Kostitsyn ($2.750m) / Lars Eller ($1.600m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Mathieu Darche ($0.700m) / Ryan White ($0.688m) / Travis Moen ($1.700m)
DEFENSEMEN
Ryan Suter ($7.000m) / P.K. Subban ($3.750m)
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Josh Gorges ($3.900m)
Alexei Emelin ($1.100m) / Raphael Diaz ($1.100m)
GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($6.300m)
Peter Budaj ($1.150m)

SALARY CAP: $70,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $70,287,500;
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $12,500

http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=7497

Équilibre de la masse salariale pour les prochaines saisons

Jeunes joueurs qui devraient recevoir une importante augmentation salariale

2013-2014 : Pacioretty

2014-2015 : Subban, Eller, S. Kostitsyn

2016-2017 : Grigorenko

Vétérans qui pourraient recevoir une diminution de salaire ou être remplacés

2013-2014 : Iginla

2014-2015 : Markov, Gionta

2016-2017 : A. Kostitsyn

Les choix du CH pour les repêchages de 2012 et 2013 (après transaction)

2012

Choix de 1ere ronde MTL (3e au total)

Choix de 2e ronde MTL (33e au total)

2013

Choix de 1ere ronde MTL

Choix de 2e ronde MTL

Le CH garde donc tous ces choix et garde une position neutre!

Le CH dans le futur

D’un point de vue contractuel, l’alignement devrait resté identique pour les 2 prochaines années. (Toutefois, Darche pourrait être remplacé par Geoffrion dès la fin de la saison prochaine). Après quoi, les contrats de Gionta et Markov viendront à échéance et ne seront probablement pas renouvelé, car ceux-ci auront tous les deux 35 ans. Ceci marque la fin du plan quinquennal qui a débuter avec l’échange de Gomez. Yakupov se retrouvera alors sur le 1er trio et un jeune prendra sa place sur le 3e trio (probablement Holland). Beaulieu prendra la place de Markov sur la 2e paire de défense et Tinordi remplacera Emelin ou Diaz sur la 3e paire.

Processus d’amélioration continue et plan quinquennal

Le jeu défensif est l’aspect du jeu le plus long et difficile à maîtriser

Pourquoi avoir fait appel à tant de vétérans?

http://blogues.cyberpresse.ca/lnh/2012/03/20/quelle-equipe-de-la-lnh-a-le-mieux-repeche-entre-2000-et-2009/

Passage de Gill et Gomez

Gionta, Moen gagnants de la coupe

Il est plus long et difficile de développer le jeu sans la rondelle d’un joueur qui doit être paufiner au niveau LNH que le jeu offensif avec la rondelle

Ex Flyers jeunes attaquants / défense expérimentée

Objectifs de cette mascarade

1. Repêcher Grigorenko

2. Signer Price et Subban (relativement) à rabais afin d’accommoder une équipe de rêve sous le plafond salarial. Dean Lombardi dont les intentions étaient claires qu’il visait la coupe a dû payer à gros prix sa vedette Drew Doughty au début de la saison. Le CH aurait dû faire de même avec Price et Subban s’il était clair que le CH visait les grands honneurs l’année prochaine. Subban n’est pas éligible à l’arbitrage, mais Carey Price si. Price recevra donc un contrat d’un ou deux ans selon son choix si ça cause est portée en arbitrage. (Même avec un contrat de 2 ans il restera RFA à la fin de son contrat.) L’incertitude autour du plafond salarial ainsi que les piètres performances de l’équipe lors de la dernière saison représentent un bon moment pour négocier des contrats à moyen et long terme pour les 2 jeunes vedettes. De plus, avec le changement de direction, l’agent de Carey Price ne pourra pas utiliser la préférence évidente de l’ancienne direction pour ce joueur réduisant ainsi un peu son rapport de force.

3. Masquer la position réelle et les intentions du CH ainsi que brouiller les prévisions des autres équipes pour la saison à venir. Ceci facilite aussi l’échange de Kaberle et Weber aux NYI.

Dire vouloir amener une philosophie différente alors que le DG Marc Bergevin agira dans la continuité d’un plan prémédité par ses prédécesseurs afin que les DG des autres équipes abaissent leurs gardes.

Écran de fumée et Pierre Gauthier, « the Ghost »

Déguiser le fait que le CH a volontairement perdu des matchs cette saison afin de se retrouver dans le fond du classement.

Interview /

Pierre Gauthier continu de tirer les ficelles comme il le faisait, sauf que maintenant derrière une façade

Il est maintenant un véritable fantôme…