http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Get the latest Mortgage News Today by Ben Gerritsen https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-07152026 Wed, 15 Jul 2026 19:43:21 GMT 6a57f188a6791958c54ac6d1 Matthew Graham Wednesday's Gains Had More Staying Power Than Tuesday's Both Tuesday's CPI and Wednesday's PPI came in much lower than expected. Both resulted in fairly big bond rallies. Whereas Tuesday's rally faded gradually after the initial pop, Wednesday's rally continued at a moderate pace as the day progressed. The only trade off was that the initial pop was a bit smaller. The net effect is that yields fell to the same levels seen in the few minutes following Tuesday's CPI. In that sense, the rally implies clear resistance at a 10yr yield level of 4.54%. From a strategic standpoint, rate watchers must consider that the data driving the rally benefited from June's lower fuel prices and that this dynamic has shifted back toward higher prices in July. With that in mind, the bond market's willingness to rally is actually rather impressive. Econ Data / Events Core PPI m/m (Jun) 0.2 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.1 prev Core PPI y/y (Jun) 4.7 vs 5.2 f'cast, 4.6 prev PPI m/m (Jun) -0.3 vs 0.0 f'cast, 1.1 prev PPI y/y (Jun) 5.5 vs 6.2 f'cast, 6.0 prev Market Movement Recap 08:43 AM Weaker to open but stronger after PPI data. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.4bps at 4.574 11:57 AM MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 3.7bps at 4.552 01:36 PM Roughly unchanged vs previous update.  10yr a bit lower now (4.1bps) at 4.548 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07152026 Wed, 15 Jul 2026 18:40:00 GMT 6a57d5dc1f3c57458fbe387d Matthew Graham Mortgage rates moved lower again today following another lower-than-expected reading on an inflation report. Yesterday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) had a bigger impact on the underlying bond market, but today's Producer Price Index (PPI) wasn't far behind. Additionally, bonds did a better job of holding onto the improvement into the afternoon hours. This allowed mortgage lenders to drop rates even more than they did yesterday (0.06% today versus 0.05% yesterday). This takes the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.64% which is the lowest in just over a week. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-07152026 Wed, 15 Jul 2026 15:44:20 GMT 6a577fbf90298ee4ffef8b68 Rob Chrisman Certainly the cost gap between renting and owning is widening, and the press is filled with stories that our borrowers see, and MLOs should read, like, “Rent vs. Buy: Is Renting Cheaper Than Buying a Home?” or “Rent or buy? How long it takes for buying a home to pay off in each metro.” Today at 11AM PT on L1’s Mortgage Matters, Developer’s Mortgage COO Taylor Stork discusses lender challenges. Lenders are scrambling to target borrowers “at the top of the funnel, and today at noon PT the Credit Committee, presented by Equifax, David Hadaway, the CEO of Altair Data Resources, to discuss how pre-screen credit data is transforming borrower acquisition. The conversation explores precision targeting, lead quality, and strategies lenders can use to improve conversion while reducing acquisition costs. (Today’s podcast can be found here… this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Zillow Home Loans, Zillow’s in-house mortgage lender. By integrating Zillow’s real estate platform with financing, Zillow Home Loans helps buyers move from dreaming about a home to holding the keys, and loan officers focus on guiding buyers with care and confidence. Today’s has an interview with JPMorgan Chase’s Olivia Barrow Strauss on today's housing policy landscape, examining why the U.S. continues to underbuild homes, how smart policy can expand supply and lower costs, and what the passage of the ROAD to Housing Act could mean for the future of housing affordability.) Lender and Broker Software, Products, and Services Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-07152026 Wed, 15 Jul 2026 13:20:53 GMT 6a57974ca6791958c54a1404 Matthew Graham The Producer Price Index (PPI) is not normally a huge market mover, but it has its moments of moderate impact. Today is such a moment as PPI did its best to mimic yesterday's sharply lower CPI. There were also big revisions to previous months which brought annual PPI a full 1.0% lower from last month's initial reading (5.5% today vs a 6.0 previous reading, revised from 6.5% when initially reported). Fuel prices loom large in this data, as evidenced by Core monthly PPI at 0.2 vs 0.3. Unlike yesterday, most of today's shift was seen in revisions to previous months--especially May (headline revised from 1.1 to 0.6). Laundry list of little numbers aside, bonds like it. Fed Funds Futures improved. Treasuries and MBS have gone from modestly weaker to moderately stronger after the report. As with yesterday, expect shorter term yields to improve more, and be cognizant of the risk that a breakout in oil prices could give bonds second thoughts about the AM rally.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-07142026 Tue, 14 Jul 2026 20:42:16 GMT 6a56ae18a6791958c5487402 Matthew Graham Why Were 10yr Yields Only a Few bps Lower Today? If you missed this morning's commentary, the gist is that inflation for June (via the CPI report) came in much lower than forecast (biggest "miss" in over a year). Given the market's preoccupation with inflation, this logically resulted in an immediate bond rally. 10yr yields only ended up a few bps lower by the end of the day. There are 3 key reasons. The first is purely mechanical and it has to do with the shorter-term rates benefitting the most. Fed Funds Futures did the best with the end-of-year implied rate falling an eighth of a point (or one half of a rate hike erased). It's common to see longer term bonds lag these moves with direct Fed rate implications. That said, we would have expected short term rates to do better as well were it not for the fact that fuel prices bottomed in June (when this data was collected) and have since been moving back up fairly quickly. The 3rd reason is related but more timely: fuel prices fell with bond yields into the 11am hour, but erased those gains after that.  Econ Data / Events m/m CORE CPI (Jun) 0.0% vs 0.2% f'cast, 0.2% prev m/m Headline CPI (Jun) -0.4% vs -0.1% f'cast, 0.5% prev y/y CORE CPI (Jun) 2.6% vs 2.8% f'cast, 2.9% prev y/y Headline CPI (Jun) 3.5% vs 3.8% f'cast, 4.2% prev Market Movement Recap 08:32 AM stronger after CPI.  10yr down 7.6bps at 4.541.  MBS TBD, but should be up more than a quarter point soon when they catch up 11:53 AM off the strongest levels on a combination of war headlines and Warsh inflation commitments. MBS up 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr down 2.9bps at 4.587 01:53 PM MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 3.4bps at 4.581 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07142026 Tue, 14 Jul 2026 19:17:00 GMT 6a568ca7330e6d0b75f90f03 Matthew Graham Our daily 30yr fixed rate index hit 6.75% yesterday. This matched the high from May 19th and is the highest level since late July 29, 2025. The key contributor to the recent spike has been the uptick in fuel prices in July combined with the fact that rates never made it any lower than 6.52% over the past 2 months. In other words, we were already in a high range and the uptick in fuel prices simply gave rates a push. Heading into today, we knew there was potential volatility associated with 2 events: Fed Chair Warsh's congressional testimony and the monthly release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)--a key inflation report.  The Warsh testimony had very little impact, but CPI was a different story. It showed inflation coming in much lower than expected in June. Lower inflation is generally good for rates. But the bond market is well aware that July could end up being a different story, thus limiting the exuberance of today's rate recovery with the rate index dropping only 0.05% to 6.70%.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-07142026 Tue, 14 Jul 2026 15:22:02 GMT 6a562e1acf630191a3a4edae Rob Chrisman Ever heard someone say something that was blatantly misleading? On July 16, at 2PM ET, you can race to buy one of Olive Garden’s 10,000 “Never Ending Pasta Passes.” But it does end, after 13 weeks. Yup, for $100 you can economically gain a lot of weight, since it’s in our DNA to do so. Speaking of DNA, do you really think that it is in the DNA of retail companies like Guild, American Pacific, Movement, CrossCountry, etc., to stop expanding? Nope, they’ll keep going, and if you want to know the mindset of a lender that doubled its purchase business from last year, listen to the interview with Zillow Home Loans’ Eric Wilson on how the company is guiding buyers, helping them move from pre-approval through closing with support from centralized processing, underwriting, and closing teams (at the 4:45 minute mark) all the while sending other lenders leads. Lenders of all sizes obviously know that compliance is important, and in Brian Levy's latest Mortgage Musings he covers the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau's new Enforcement Principles which create no enforceable rights, no safe harbor, and could vanish with a website edit. Tomorrow on L1’s Mortgage Matters, Mitchell Sandler's Ari Karen discusses the mortgage litigation space, potential updates to RESPA, storm clouds with AI from a legal perspective. (Today’s podcast can be found here… this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Zillow Home Loans, Zillow’s in-house mortgage lender. By integrating Zillow’s real estate platform with financing, Zillow Home Loans helps buyers move from dreaming about a home to holding the keys, and loan officers focus on guiding buyers with care and confidence. Today’s has an Interview with MCT’s Leslie Winick on the evolving role of a Chief Strategy Officer, exploring how technology companies can stand out in the AI era through customer-centric strategy, operational excellence, effective change management, and goal alignment.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-07142026 Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:56:24 GMT 6a56411ca6791958c5479e2c Matthew Graham The Consumer Price Index came in FAR below expectations with a core reading of 0.0 vs 0.2 forecasts. In unrounded terms, it was -0.17%. Headline CPI was more sharply negative than expected at -0.4 vs a -0.1 forecast. Supercore (which excludes housing) was down -0.2 which is the first negative reading in over a year. Core goods also remained in negative territory for a second straight month. Bonds rallied instantly, led by the short end of the curve (more closely tied to Fed rate expectations). But even 10yr yields are down over 5bps and MBS are up more than 3/8ths of a point.   Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07132026 Mon, 13 Jul 2026 20:12:00 GMT 6a554977823122ae4d1e9903 Matthew Graham Interest rates are based on bonds. Because the bonds underlying the average mortgage are fixed rate, inflation is the enemy. Imagine you're an investor fronting the money for a fixed-rate mortgage. You know your schedule of payments from day one. Let's say the payment is $5 or enough to buy a dozen eggs.  Now let's say inflation raises the price of those eggs to $7. You're still only receiving $5 because you invested in a fixed-rate loan. Because of this dynamic, when inflation fears increase, investors demand higher rates of return. We're dealing with two inflation threats right now: one is specific and one is general. The specific threat is that of elevated fuel prices stemming from the Iran war. As the fighting picked back up in July, so have rates. Today's war headlines were just the latest addition to the growing problem. The general threat is a broad array of other prices in the marketplace that aren't directly impacted by fuel or tariffs. Fed governor Waller spoke about this additional inflation today and said that if it was high enough according to this week's inflation data (tomorrow and Wednesday) that the Fed could consider hiking rates as soon as this month. So on the one hand, rates were already under pressure from the steady increase in fuel prices in recent days. Waller's comments added additional pressure.  The result is a top-tier, 30yr fixed rate that has returned to 6.75% for the average lender. This matches the high seen on May 19th, and you'd have to go back more than 11 months to see anything higher. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-07132026 Mon, 13 Jul 2026 15:55:40 GMT 6a54db996a57f67c742c6dbe Rob Chrisman Recently, MISMO released its new white paper, “From Paper to Performance: How eNotes and eClosing Streamline Liquidity,” providing guidance for originators, warehouse lenders, investors, and technology providers to implement digital mortgage solutions. Today at 10AM PT is Now Next Later, presented by Relcu, where Jeremy Potter and Eric Lapin are joined by Laura Kornhauser, CEO of Stratyfy, to discuss the evolving role of AI in mortgage and financial services. The conversation explores how lenders can use AI to improve risk assessment, strengthen decision making, and balance innovation with governance and regulatory expectations. (Today’s podcast can be found here… this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Zillow Home Loans, Zillow’s in-house mortgage lender. By integrating Zillow’s real estate platform with financing, Zillow Home Loans helps buyers move from dreaming about a home to holding the keys, and loan officers focus on guiding buyers with care and confidence. Today’s has an interview with Zillow Home Loans’ Eric Wilson on how the company is guiding buyers, helping them move from pre-approval through closing with support from centralized processing, underwriting, and closing teams.) Lender and Broker Software, Products, and Services NFTYDoor just lowered its HELOC rates (again!). Lenders looking to capture more home equity volume can now offer their borrowers lower HELOC rates through NFTYDoor. NFTYDoor just lowered rates (again), delivering sharper pricing with the same flexible buy box built to say "yes" (600+ FICO, up to 90 percent CLTV, and loan amounts up to $750K). Because NFTYDoor manages the full origination lifecycle from underwriting, processing, closing, and title curative, you can add a high-demand product without adding staff or infrastructure. Get your borrowers closing in as little as ZERO days! (6 days on average) with hospitality-grade human support on every file. Onboarding is quick, allowing you to pass these savings on to your clients immediately. Apply today at nftydoor.com/partner-application. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full