http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Get the latest Mortgage News Today by Ben Gerritsen https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-05132026 Wed, 13 May 2026 19:38:54 GMT 6a04e1dca6791958c5c464a3 Matthew Graham MBS Fully Recover After Initial Reaction to Inflation Data There's no question that this morning's PPI data hit the bond market. The volume spike was easily higher than that seen with yesterday's CPI and the market movement left nothing to the imagination. In the big picture, a few bps of weakness in bond yields isn't that alarming, but if we consider PPI isn't usually a big deal and that yields were already pushing recent highs, things begin looking more meaningful. Despite the initial reaction, bonds found their footing after 11:30am. 10yr yields made it almost all the way back to pre-data levels and MBS fared even better--ultimately turning green around 2pm.  Econ Data / Events Core PPI m/m (Apr) 1.0% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.1% prev Core PPI y/y (Apr) 5.2% vs 4.3% f'cast, 3.8% prev PPI m/m (Apr) 1.4% vs 0.5% f'cast, 0.5% prev PPI y/y (Apr) 6.0% vs 4.9% f'cast, 4% prev Market Movement Recap 08:38 AM MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 3.2bps at 4.484 11:39 AM MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3bps at 4.483 02:16 PM Nice bounce for MBS, now back to + 1 tick (.03) on the day. 10yr still up 2.7bps at 4.48 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05132026 Wed, 13 May 2026 18:58:00 GMT 6a04cfbba77097e747a09e54 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates rose somewhat sharply yesterday to match the highest level since March 27th. They're just a hair higher today, thus officially at 6-week highs.  Whereas yesterday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) didn't have an obviously negative impact on rates, today's Producer Price Index (PPI) did. Both are big inflation reports. CPI is typically much more likely to cause a reaction in rates, but PPI showed a much bigger surge in inflation this morning. Even then, the underlying bond market wasn't too much worse by the end of the day and the mortgage-specific bond market actually made a full recovery. But that recovery was too gradual and shallow for the average lender to adjust their rates today. That left our rate index 0.01% higher day over day at 6.57% for a top tier 30yr fixed. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-05132026 Wed, 13 May 2026 14:55:05 GMT 6a0471a99227ac8dca16ad1f Rob Chrisman The April FOMC Meeting concluded with the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged, and it was the last under Jerome Powell's chairmanship. Chair Powell is the first Fed Chairman to step down and remain on the Board since 1948 due to a) the Federal investigation regarding the cost of renovating the Fed's Headquarters, and b) he probably wants to have a voice in keeping the Fed independent from presidents. Kevin Warsh is slated to be the next Fed Chairman, taking the helm on May 15th, and at this point most expect no changes from Fed policy until 2027. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by nCino, and its Mortgage Suite that supports a modern homeownership journey. This week at nSight 2026, mortgage leaders will explore how AI, intelligent automation, and connected experiences are reshaping lending operations and borrower engagement. Hear an interview with nCino’s Chris Gufford on how AI is moving beyond hype to deliver measurable gains in mortgage operations, borrower experience, and loan officer productivity, while reshaping how forward-looking lenders reengineer their processes for the next phase of industry transformation.) Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services A tailored suit fits because it was designed for you, not handed to you off the rack. Floify takes the same approach to the mortgage POS: configurable to how you actually lend, so LOs do more with less because the intelligence is already inside. Your loan types? Configured without code, no dev queue, no vendor delay. Built in. Your borrower data? Extracted, validated and pre-filled before an LO ever touches the file. Built in. Your workflows? Moving loans forward automatically, no manual nudges required. Built in. The result is an 84 percent increase in efficiency and loans reach clear-to-close 7.5 days faster across any loan type your team can dream up. Is your POS tailored for you, or are you the one making alterations to fit it? See it live. Your way. Built in. Ready when you are. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-05132026 Wed, 13 May 2026 14:21:05 GMT 6a049808a6791958c5c3d052 Matthew Graham The Producer Price Index (PPI) is much more volatile and, on average, much less of a market mover than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but occasionally, it swings for the fences. Today's release is a clear example with the monthly headline coming in at 1.5 vs 0.5 forecast. In annual terms, headline inflation is a whopping 6.0% versus a 4.9% forecast--up sharply from last month's 4.3% (itself upwardly revised from 4.0%). This is easily the most onerous spike since the pandemic. Even though PPI hit the market harder than CPI, that's not saying much. Bonds are only 2bps weaker at 10am ET--a testament to how little this data tends to matter. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-05122026 Tue, 12 May 2026 20:06:51 GMT 6a039764a6791958c5c219ee Matthew Graham Highest Yields in 10 Months on War Headlines and Auction Concessions Because CPI came out slightly higher today and because of its status as a bigger potential market mover, many rate watchers will assume that's the reason 10yr yields closed at their highest level since last July. But bond yields were actually lower in the first 40 minutes post-CPI. It wasn't until newswires cited Trump saying he's in no hurry to end the war that yields began spiking (and stocks began selling). It's also worth noting that yields were already up to 4.44% ahead of CPI and only moved 2bps higher by the close (i.e. not much intraday movement in the grand scheme). Could CPI have been a factor for some traders? Sure, but the majority of post-CPI volume suggests the data was largely taken in stride. Econ Data / Events m/m CORE CPI (Apr) 0.4% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev m/m Headline CPI (Apr) 0.6% vs 0.6% f'cast, 0.9% prev y/y CORE CPI (Apr) 2.8% vs 2.7% f'cast, 2.6% prev y/y Headline CPI (Apr) 3.8% vs 3.7% f'cast, 3.3% prev Market Movement Recap 08:30 AM No major reaction to CPI. 10yr up 2.9bps at 4.438 and MBS are down only 2 ticks (.06). 09:39 AM MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.2bps at 4.451 02:03 PM Weakest levels. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 5.2bps at 4.461 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05122026 Tue, 12 May 2026 19:28:00 GMT 6a0381c8be432f2ae76371e8 Matthew Graham When the Iran war was in its initial escalation phase, the initial surge in markets took the top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.64% for the average lender by March 27th. Rates moved more than 0.30% lower by mid April as peace prospect improved.  The third phase of rate movement began in late April and has generally involved a jump back up toward 6.5% with the first 2 days of the present week accounting for a move from 6.42% to 6.56%. That matches the highest level seen since March 27th. Bonds yields (which underlie rates) have followed longer-term oil prices to their highest recent levels as Trump said the U.S. is not in a hurry to end the war.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-05122026 Tue, 12 May 2026 14:52:21 GMT 6a0322240a64d079471dfd32 Rob Chrisman If you’re hoping that the summer is going to bring a trend of purchase market prosperity, I hope you’re right but there are indications otherwise. Rocket Companies’ CEO reported its highest profit in four years, but CEO Varun Krishna told investors that the company’s real-time data shows the spring homebuying season is not delivering the volume increase that historical patterns would suggest. The cost of war, oil prices, and homebuyer psychology are heavy (let’s hope temporary) weights. And Optimal Blue’s latest Market Advantage report finds mortgage lock activity cooling in April after a strong first quarter. Total rate-lock volume declined 9 percent month over month (though it was up 11 percent on a year-over-year basis). Purchase demand was down about 2 percent in March but up more than 9 percent from April 2025. (Refinance activity cooled more sharply, easing refi share of total production to just 23 percent.) (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by nCino, and its Mortgage Suite that supports a modern homeownership journey. One of the major themes emerging from nSight 2026 this week is how lenders can move beyond traditional workflows through AI, intelligent automation, and connected lending experiences. Hear an interview with Truework’s Ethan Winchell on how rising income volatility is reshaping homebuyer eligibility and what lenders must do to adapt to a more complex and less predictable income landscape.) Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-05122026 Tue, 12 May 2026 13:29:16 GMT 6a0339a4a6791958c5c16107 Matthew Graham This morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in slightly hotter than expected with core inflation running 2.8% annual vs 2.7% forecasts and overall inflation at 3.8% vs 3.7%. Bonds have traded both ways after the data, but after 20 minutes, yields were actually LOWER by a hair. What gives? We know traders are trading the data based on volume. The stalemate could have to do with core goods (a proxy for tariff-related inflation) moving lower. The Fed has called this category out as a prerequisite for considering rate cuts again. The rest of the data was less friendly but housing played an outsized role. This is actually better for the rate outlook because traders think housing will ultimately trend lower over time. That said, the non-housing metric (supercore, .454% monthly and 3.32% annually) remains far too high for a rate cut discussion to be on the table for the foreseeable future. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-05112026 Mon, 11 May 2026 19:50:10 GMT 6a024134a6791958c5bfa349 Matthew Graham Over Before it Began Monday proved to be a boring trading day despite the moderately big sell-off. Yields actually didn't move much during the domestic session. In fact, they didn't move during the overnight session either. Because the day's market-moving news happened on Sunday before trading began, it was instantly priced in at the open, and the rest of the day was spent drifting sideways to slightly weaker. Bonds ultimately underperformed their prevailing correlation with oil prices. We're not reading anything into this--especially in light of the Treasury auction cycle possibly adding some concessionary weakness.  Econ Data / Events Existing home sales (Apr) 4.02M vs 4.05M f'cast, 3.98M prev Market Movement Recap 09:03 AM Weaker overnight after peace deal impasse. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.381 12:58 PM weakest levels with 10yr up 4.6bps at 4.401 and MBS down almost 3/8ths 02:08 PM some support after hitting weakest levels. MBS down 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr up 4.8bps at 4.403 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05112026 Mon, 11 May 2026 19:30:00 GMT 6a0230057532325de1960351 Matthew Graham Last week was decidedly stronger for mortgage rates as they either held steady or moved lower on 5 out of 5 days. All told, it was a 0.14% drop from the previous week in terms of the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate.  The new week is starting out in opposite fashion with rates moving up 0.07% today alone. This follows news over the weekend that Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to end the war. In general, the longer the war continues, the higher oil prices will remain.  Oil price don't dictate rates, but there's currently a lot of correlation due to inflation implications. Oil naturally impacts the cost to ship goods, so a rapid spike in oil prices increases inflation. Rates are based on bonds, and bonds hate inflation. In fact, inflation is technically a component of bond yields (aka "rates"). Despite the rocky start to the week, we're not necessarily destined to move in one direction or the other. Everything depends on progress toward peace, or lack thereof. To a lesser extent, this week's incoming economic data can also have an impact. Coincidentally, much of that data focuses on inflation for the month of April. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full