http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Get the latest Mortgage News Today by Ben Gerritsen https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-11062026 Fri, 06 Nov 2026 20:54:15 GMT 6aee4cb49f50a0a93e1d93d1 Matthew Graham Very Strong Showing For Bonds Considering The Headwinds There were two major headwinds in play for the bond market today. Most obviously, the jobs report was very strong--something that would normally push rates logically and obviously higher. One can only run through a list of potential explanations to fit that paradoxical result (unemployment rate wasn't as far from forecasts, election impact still being weighed, tech stocks didn't bounce big, stale data if mid-October marked a shift in economic momentum) but mind you, no one would have pointed to these things as reasons for bonds to completely defy the jobs report if they had to guess at the impact ahead of time. The second headwind was the absence of additional selling in tech stocks. This one could go both ways. On on hand, the NASDAQ is higher than it was yesterday afternoon. On the other hand (and to reiterate a bullet point above) it didn't stage any sort of impressive recovery. The net effect for bonds was modest weakness although things would have been weaker were it not for mid-day news regarding Microsoft winding down a deal to rent AI cloud compute from Oracle. Econ Data / Events Non Farm Payrolls (Oct) 165K vs 65K f'cast, 29K prev Participation Rate (Oct) 61.9% vs -- f'cast, 61.8% prev Unemployment rate mm (Oct) 4.1% vs 4.2% f'cast, 4.2% prev Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-11062026 Fri, 06 Nov 2026 20:06:00 GMT 6aee3563585f9968036fa06e Matthew Graham Today was an odd one for mortgage rates. Anyone who's been following the rate market for very long will tell you that the monthly jobs report is one of the most reliable source of volatility for rates. In general, when job growth is much stronger than expected, rates rise and vice versa. But in today's case, rates managed to hold perfectly flat despite the jobs report absolutely crushing expectations. Understand that no one who is offering a reason for this would have predicted this result if they knew the jobs numbers ahead of time and were simply asked to predict how rates would react. In other words, the only reason you're getting their explanations is because the paradoxical market reaction demanded a different narrative. The only things that were true both before and after the jobs report were as follows: The Fed recently said it was almost exclusively focused on the inflation side of its dual mandate (stable prices + maximum employment). Bonds/rates have been preoccupied taking cues from concerns about the tech sector and heavy selling in tech stocks. Bonds/rates/stocks are still in the process of making sense of this week's election results. Markets have been more interested in the unemployment rate component of the jobs report than the payroll count (it was the latter that really surged in today's data).  None of these bullet points would have fully predicted the paradoxical resilience in rates today, but they perhaps help get us close to wrapping our minds around it. At the end of the day, the average lender was right in line with yesterday's levels--the lowest since September 22nd.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-11062026 Fri, 06 Nov 2026 16:45:25 GMT 6aedd7d262558fc913930085 Rob Chrisman Lender and Broker Products, Services, and Software Your borrower relationship shouldn’t end at the closing table. Homeowners’ financial needs continue long after they get their first mortgage, but the lender relationship often does not. 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More than 90 percent of GSE loans qualify. Talk with a specialist about making the switch to UAD 3.6 easier. “Your AI governance policy is only the beginning. When AI acts inside a mortgage workflow, your team still needs clear answers: Was it authorized? What was it allowed to do? Which authority applied? And where is the proof? Crittora controls AI at the moment it acts. Crittora’s CAAB solution evaluates whether an AI action is within defined authority before it reaches a tool, API, or mortgage system. Crittora Mortgage GSE Governance aligned Packs help turn those decisions into audit-ready proof. Control AI before action. Evidence after action. Less time chasing proof at audit. Crittora is the only AI security company with 100 years of combined mortgage experience. We are FRAME certified by MISMO, and ready to help you move your governance policy to production.” Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-11062026 Fri, 06 Nov 2026 14:25:28 GMT 6aedf2789f50a0a93e1cdfc0 Matthew Graham Nonfarm payrolls came in 100k higher than forecast and the unemployment dropped even as the participation rate moved higher. That's a recipe for a bond market sell-off if we ever saw one. But apart from an initial knee-jerk sell-off, yields returned back in line with pre-NFP levels within 8 minutes and haven't moved much since then. What gives? Well... we expect that this is one of those days where market commentators are forced to adapt their narrative to the trading as opposed to hoping the trading would validate their narrative.  One caveat is that professional/biz services accounted for +70k of the 165k total, whereas it has averaged +15k over the past year. This isn't enough to discount the strength of the data. In fact, it's a genuinely strong report. Bonds simply don't care (apart from ultra short term bills and Fed Funds Futures). Neither did stocks for that matter. In the interest of analytical authenticity, here are the only thoughts we would have shared even if bonds were selling off in response to this data (perhaps some of the resilience coincides with some of these to some extent, but if anyone tells you they saw this market reaction coming, yell at them and tell them to tell you ahead of time next time so you can both make some money trading). Bonds were already 3+ bps weaker overnight Fed recently and explicitly said it's focused on inflation side of mandate (mentioned yesterday as well) Bonds have been primarily taking cues from AI deflation trade Tech stocks moved modestly higher overnight, and bonds might not want to get carried away selling off if the tech rout might have an encore Stocks/Bonds are also still trying to make sense of what election results might imply about the tech trade (and data center buildout pace, which could imply a downgraded view of corporate bond issuance, thus helping Treasuries/MBS). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-11052026 Thu, 05 Nov 2026 20:04:00 GMT 6aecef7c9f50a0a93e1aeff4 Matthew Graham Stocks Got Rocked. Bonds Picked Up Some Slack Chipmakers and other tech names got absolutely rocked today starting at the 9:30am NYSE open. Hedge funds dumped semiconductors like a bad habit early and often (Sandisk down 20% anyone?!), and with tech comprising so much of the 2026 growth story, the rest of the stock market followed suit. Bonds were a hair weaker at 9:30am, but that rapidly changed due to the magnitude of the equity market exodus. Still, 10yr yields falling a mere 5-6bps is pretty underwhelming considering stocks had their worst day in over a year and hit their worst levels since April (NASDAQ specifically). Friday's jobs report is still a contender for volatility although any major swings in stocks should set the tone. Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims 189k vs 196k f'cast, 195k prev Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-11052026 Thu, 05 Nov 2026 19:15:00 GMT 6aecd7277e74c6f9ac9a1ff7 Matthew Graham Yesterday, it was a drop below 7.25%. Today, the 7.20% floor was broken. Mortgage rates have been on a tear over the past month and are now back to 7.17% for the average lender. If there's one thing that deserves most of the credit for this bull run, it's the extreme bearishness in tech stocks. The NASDAQ is now down roughly 14% from the October highs and the drop perfectly coincides with the drop in bond yields and interest rates.  The road ahead is fairly simple: if tech continues causing panic in stocks, interest rates can continue to benefit. The caveat is that the benefit to rates has been getting smaller and smaller relative to the drama in stocks. This would also suggest that any miraculous bounce in stocks would likely prompt a similar correction in rates.  Economic data still matters as well. On that note, tomorrow brings the monthly jobs report, which should always be respected as a potential source of volatility.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-11052026 Thu, 05 Nov 2026 16:25:14 GMT 6aec8636a222a7feb6ef3ebf Rob Chrisman Why am I a sucker for stories like, “What Do the Twins in the Shining Look Like Now?”? Is the American public a sucker for not being more concerned that no politician seems concerned about the burgeoning deficit? Will there be any “fiscal conservatives” in Congress, or the White House? Here in Dallas, one of the topics, of course, is the election. Yesterday stocks rallied and rates both dropped, reminding us that they don’t have a consistent inverse relationship, mostly on removing the uncertainty about the election. Where do we go with reducing regulatory burdens for credit-worthy borrowers, a mandate for the CFPB, FHA/VA, or banking regulators? What might happen to TRID, RESPA, Truth in Lending, or ATR? Will ink signature requirements go away? Perhaps. What about credit and appraisal policies? Will we see an expanded role for Federal Home Loan Banks? Lots of questions for a Thursday; see below for the MBA’s communication plan. (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are presented by FirstClose, which helps financial institutions grow a successful home equity business with innovative solutions that minimize application drop-off, automate time-consuming processes, and reduce time to close from weeks to days. Today’s has an interview with True Footage’s Jeremy Potter on how technology and structured property data are transforming home appraisals by streamlining data collection, improving valuation accuracy and lender risk assessment, and allowing licensed appraisers to focus more on expert analysis and complex properties.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-11052026 Thu, 05 Nov 2026 14:06:38 GMT 6aec9c489f50a0a93e1a489a Matthew Graham Bonds are starting the day a few bps weaker. 10yr yields are just over 4.90% and considering they were almost 50bps higher a month ago, you're free to go about your business today without scrutinizing this morning's baby bump. It could be purely incidental. But for those who demand scapegoats, the easiest suspect to blame would be corporate debt issuance from Apple, which coincided with bonds breaking away from their overnight stock market correlation. In the bigger picture, we could consider investors might wonder if the NASDAQ just had another summer-sized correction and might now find support. Lastly, we might consider the bond market correction has similarly covered enough ground as to merit a bit of cooling.  All of that is speculative, of course. If stocks resume tanking or if the econ data gets bad, the good times could easily resume. But if stocks move back toward all-time highs and the data improves, it would make sense for the recent bull run in bonds to find resistance here. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-11042026 Wed, 04 Nov 2026 21:19:08 GMT 6aebaf909f50a0a93e188904 Matthew Graham Elections, Oil, and Neocloud Stocks, Oh My! There are 3 publicly traded neocloud stocks that are big enough to care about. All 3 hit new long term lows today (ranging from 6 months to over a year).  All 3 continue to track very well with the recent bond market rally. This is simplest way to approach today's gains. The more you wander from that path, the more complex and circular the logic becomes. Oil prices have plummeted almost $20since last Friday. Seems like it should matter, and a few traders might agree. Then there's the election, which caused a surge in the broader stock market. We'd be careful giving it credit for bond market gains considering yields jumped from 4.90% to almost 4.95% when the senate results were called by news agencies. The easiest way to attempt to connect those dots would be via "AI company headwind implications." Such headwinds could imply slower corporate bond issuance or even a slower pace of economic growth. Bottom line: we have no objection to the lowest rates in more than a month, but the rally still looks most dependent on neocloud jitters.  Econ Data / Events ADP jobs (Oct) 86K vs 69K f'cast, 90K prev Trade Gap (Sep) -105.00B vs $-108B f'cast, $-105.6B prev S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) 55.9 vs 57.6 f'cast, 58.4 prev S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) 56.1 vs 57.9 f'cast, 58.8 prev ISM Biz Activity (Oct) 53.8 vs -- f'cast, 56.5 prev ISM N-Mfg PMI (Oct) 54.5 vs 54.8 f'cast, 54.9 prev ISM Services Employment (Oct) 51.4 vs -- f'cast, 50.1 prev ISM Services New Orders (Oct) 55.9 vs -- f'cast, 59.8 prev ISM Services Prices (Oct) 73.0 vs -- f'cast, 74.0 prev Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-11042026 Wed, 04 Nov 2026 20:25:00 GMT 6aeb97ddaf61f33a7037a69f Matthew Graham 30yr fixed rates moved over 7.25% on September 23rd, 2026 and continued to long-term highs of 7.61% by early October. But starting in mid October, rates began declining as the market grew increasingly concerned about the tech sector. Until today 7.27% marked the floor of the present rally. Now the floor is lower. Rates began the day moderately lower with an average top-tier 30yr fixed rate of 7.25%. Reasons can be debated, but may include: Investors coming off the sidelines after mid-term election uncertainty was cleared up Ongoing trouble for the neocloud portion of the tech sector (i.e. Coreweave, Nebius, etc) Another sharp drop in fuel prices  Earlier in the day, it wasn't a given that rates would end up lower. Just after 10am, it looked like the stock market might get so much love that bonds/rates would be left wanting. But tech stocks ended up hitting their ceiling for the day at that time and bonds were subsequently able to improve to their best levels in the afternoon. When bonds improve enough intraday, mortgage lenders occasionally adjust rates lower. Not every lender did so today, but it would enough to bring the average down to 7.22%--the first time we've been below 7.25% since September 22nd.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full