http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Get the latest Mortgage News Today by Ben Gerritsen https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-08052026 Wed, 05 Aug 2026 12:55:43 GMT 6a7340f0a6791958c57748a6 Matthew Graham With the potential for a Hormuz deal floated earlier in the week, a more substantive announcement remains the biggest opportunity for the bond market until Friday's jobs report (and even then, could supersede the jobs report depending on the details). Conversely, another diplomatic breakdown or another re-escalation would be the biggest risk. There were no no hints of either eventuality overnight and the flat trading levels in bonds confirm that. In the meantime, we'll have some B-team data in the form of ISM Services this morning at 10am ET. This report isn't guaranteed to cause a reaction, but it certainly reserves that right if it falls appreciably far from forecasts. As always, the employment component of the ISM data carries some weight given that it adds another solid anecdote ahead of Friday's big jobs report. Oil prices drifted just a hair higher after initial overnight gains, and bonds have followed, but the movement is so small that it's just as fair to say everything is sideways so far. In the bigger picture, yields have made a nice re-entry into the prevailing long-term trend channel, but it would be more reassuring to see some willingness to explore the lower boundary--something that hasn't been palatable since the re-escalation of the war that played out in July. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-08042026 Tue, 04 Aug 2026 19:29:31 GMT 6a724c04a6791958c575947c Matthew Graham Solid Showing For Logical Reasons Money flooded back into both sides of the market in a major way (albeit more "major" for the stock market) after Bessent said we could be days away from a new deal on Hormuz transit. Oil plunged to the lowest levels since July 13th and bond yields were willing to follow (also nearly back to 7/13 levels). MBS picked up more than quarter point and multiple lenders repriced for the better as the gains came in waves throughout the morning trading hours. Familiar risks remain. We've seen plenty of back and forth on the state of the war, but we can say the market seemed more willing than normal to buy into this latest pivot. Beyond that, econ data is a factor this week for bonds with ISM Services on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday. Dare we say that the jobs report is likely not quite as big of a risk/opportunity as ongoing oil price volatility? We'll let you know on Friday around 8:40am ET.    Econ Data / Events JOLTS Job openings 7.359m vs 7.400m f'cast, 7.537m prev Market Movement Recap 08:56 AM Stronger start as Bessent floats notion of Hormuz deal this week. Oil and bond yields down. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1.5bps at 4.66 (down almost 5bps from overnight highs). 12:18 PM MBS up 11 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 5bps at 4.624 03:10 PM MBS still up 11 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 5.3bps at 4.621 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08042026 Tue, 04 Aug 2026 19:01:00 GMT 6a7238a6965da1c23f84b9df Matthew Graham Mortgage rates were a bit hesitant to follow the bond market's advice yesterday. Specifically, bonds rallied (i.e. bond prices moved higher and yields/rates moved lower). This almost always coincides with mortgage rates falling by a proportional amount. But yesterday didn't see the typical level of correlation for many lenders. Today is a different story. The additional gains in the bond market (courtesy of Iran-related headlines and lower oil prices) offered enough reassurance for mortgage lenders to get a bit more aggressive in terms of keeping pace with the market.  The net effect is an average 30yr fixed rate that is now down to the lowest levels in just over 2 weeks. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-08042026 Tue, 04 Aug 2026 15:44:26 GMT 6a71dcf8f9778328d14d156d Rob Chrisman After a general summer lull, and with talk of JPMorgan Chase’s $750 billion housing investment rifling through our biz, mortgage conference season shifts back into gear with next week’s Western Secondary with plenty of events in September and October, so book those rooms. The last time you stayed in a hotel, or maybe you’re reading this right now in one, what color were the sheets and towels? A safe bet is “white,” and here’s why. Sheet psychology is one thing, but for lenders, M&A psychology is another. Yesterday an “industry source” wrote to me, “I learned this morning from Chuck Iverson that Mason Mac entered into an agreement to sell its Production Group to Place / Envoy Mortgage. They are announcing it to their employees this morning. They are also in talks with a group to buy their Corporate shell and Agency approvals. Not sure if their MSRs are going with the Production Team or the Shell Buyer. The deal with Place / Envoy was a private transaction (no transaction advisor) and they used Weiner Brodsky Kider for legal. Chuck plans to stay on with Mason Mac to help Mukesh wind down the business but will have an active role for a year or two, under a TSA Agreement, to support the Mason Mac employees transfer and integration into the new company.” (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Figure. Figure is shaking up the lending world with their five-day HELOC, offering borrower approvals in as little as five minutes and funding in five days. Figure has hundreds of partners in the Banking, Credit Union, Home Improvement, and of course, IMB space embedding their technology. Today’s has an interview with Vesta’s Mike Yu on being on the cutting edge of designing mortgage technology.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-08042026 Tue, 04 Aug 2026 13:39:38 GMT 6a71f9fca6791958c574f0f0 Matthew Graham This morning is offering another installment of hope for some form of progress in Iran. In today's case, it was Bessent floating the notion of possible Hormuz deal as early as this week. Markets will believe it when they see it, of course, but they're certainly willing to trade the hope. After moving modestly higher overnight, oil prices and bond yields are quickly lower in response to the headlines. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-08032026 Mon, 03 Aug 2026 19:52:09 GMT 6a710060a6791958c5733694 Matthew Graham Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain Monday was "nice." Bonds rallied more than a little bit and held those gains in an exceptionally flat manner all day. But there are caveats. Apart from last Friday, today's yields matched the long-term highs seen on July 23rd.  Or on a more timely note, the rally didn't fully erase Friday's weakness. Additionally, strength was not a given. It required a fairly substantial drop in oil prices stepping from a fresh round Iran war optimism. This as been a fickle friend to say the least, though we'll never turn down the visit. Ample past precedent is a reminder that things can change quickly  with respect to geopolitics. Last but not least, while econ data had no lasting impact today, Friday's jobs report is on another level. Market Movement Recap 09:50 AM Stronger overnight on war-related de-escalation and lower fuel prices. MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 4.6bps at 4.689 12:03 PM MBS still up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 5bps at 4.686 02:37 PM Super flat. MBS still up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 4.8bps at 4.687 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08032026 Mon, 03 Aug 2026 19:27:00 GMT 6a70ed93a676cdc56cf57941 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates had a tough day on Friday, largely in response to bond market volatility surrounding heavy forex trading as a part of US/Japan efforts to prop up Japanese currency (not a common source of inspiration for rates).  Higher oil prices didn't help. As we begin the new week, de-escalation in the Iran war pushed oil prices much lower. As has been the case frequently during the war, bond yields followed oil prices in relative lock-step.  While it's almost universally true that lower bond yields beget lower mortgage rates, there are occasionally days where the correlation isn't as strong as normal. Today was one of them. Whether or not any given lender was lower than Friday depends largely on whether they raised rates in the middle of the day on Friday. The average lender is still fairly close to the rates seen on Friday morning. Lenders who raised rates on Friday afternoon are generally a bit lower today. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-08032026 Mon, 03 Aug 2026 15:24:37 GMT 6a708a95210f2f635295686f Rob Chrisman Non-QM investors are “licking their chops” by using the information that the FHFA, through Freddie and Fannie, is requiring a more thorough lender assessment before approving condo loans beginning today. Non-QM is not. Who is going to say that information isn’t important? Lenders and the markets like knowing what the U.S. Federal Reserve is up to… Now Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is considering reducing the frequency of the central bank's scheduled policy meetings, the New York Times reported Friday. How much would you pay for news in advance? $100k per month? Would you ever buy something from someone selling something that had this access? Trump Media and Technology Group officially rolled out its new subscription-based data service on Saturday, giving paying customers, which may include MBS traders, faster, real-time access to Truth Social posts from Trump and other high-profile accounts. Called Truth API, the application programming interface is intended to provide businesses with “a direct, licensed, real-time feed of the platform’s most market-moving Truths”, interim CEO Kevin McGurn said in a release announcing the launch. Trading firms and other paying subscribers can now access the posts earlier than other users, for a fee of up to $100,000 per month. (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Figure. Figure is shaking up the lending world with their five-day HELOC, offering borrower approvals in as little as five minutes and funding in five days. Figure has hundreds of partners in the Banking, Credit Union, Home Improvement, and of course, IMB space embedding their technology. Today’s has an interview with Aon’s John Dickson on the evolution of disaster modeling and how it is impacting the mortgage industry from origination through the capital markets.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-08032026 Mon, 03 Aug 2026 14:25:44 GMT 6a70b308a6791958c5729d17 Matthew Graham Bonds opened the trading session in much stronger territory, following the drop in oil prices associated with another round of de-escalation hopes in the Iran war. The root cause was the cancellation of planned air strikes as well as comments that suggested a reopening of negotiations. As has been the case, markets don't really care if there's much substance or probability. It gets traded moderately and instantly simply due to possibility. Bonds were at their best levels just before 8am and had lost a bit of the rally by 10am. At that point, stronger ISM Services data momentarily threatened to extend the correction, but there was less than 20 seconds of selling before yields moved back below pre-data levels. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-07312026 Fri, 31 Jul 2026 20:08:11 GMT 6a6d0f64a6791958c56dafa0 Matthew Graham Esoteric Forex Drama Blasts Bonds, Maybe Friday was very much NOT on the beaten path of typical bond market considerations with most of the selling arguably stemming from Japanese currency intervention. We've seen similar episodes in the past, but  today's installment came with a twist. In addition to Japan confirming it was selling foreign bonds to prop up Yen values, the U.S. Treasury also apparently got involved. It warned dealers that it could make trades to support the Yen. No one but those involved knows if that means anything beyond using the ESF to execute currency trades, but the net effect seems to have been to grease the skids for U.S. accounts to sell Treasuries first and ask questions later. This isn't necessarily the final story either. It was also month-end, and it's also the week before the jobs report on a summertime Friday. Volume was fairly light relative to the size of the sell-off. Econ Data / Events Employment costsQ2 0.9% vs 0.8% f'cast, 0.9% prev Market Movement Recap 08:39 AM Weaker after ECI data. MBS down about an eighth and 10yr up 2.3bps at 4.696 10:29 AM Sharply weaker. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 4.9bps at 4.722 01:06 PM Weakest levels. MBS down almost 3/8ths and 10yr up 6.2bps at 4.736 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full