http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Get the latest Mortgage News Today by Ben Gerritsen https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-09042026 Fri, 04 Sep 2026 20:53:51 GMT 6a9b3e70a6791958c5b93bdd Matthew Graham Surprisingly Light Selling Given The Econ Data Today's market reaction to the big beat in NFP (162k vs 56k) certainly stretches the paradigm of most market watchers who've been in the game for more than a few years, but this has been the reality over the past year or two. Relatively rapid changes in labor force trends (and ongoing changes in seasonal distortions) have made the job count a less precise measurement of labor market health than it once was. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has been far more insulated from that volatility (and far less prone to big beats/misses compared to NFP). This doesn't mean NFP doesn't matter. Clearly, it does. It just didn't hit bonds quite as hard as you might expect. Very early in the day, attention turned to the 3-day weekend and next week's inflation data. The modest increase in yields was an incidental byproduct. Econ Data / Events Average earnings mm (Aug) 0.3% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.1% prev Non Farm Payrolls (Aug) 162K vs 56K f'cast, -23K prev Participation Rate (Aug) 61.6% vs -- f'cast, 61.4% prev Unemployment rate mm (Aug) 4.1% vs 4.1% f'cast, 4.1% prev Market Movement Recap 08:42 AM stronger overnight and now moderately weaker after NFP. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.796 09:57 AM Very decent recovery. MBS down only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr now unchanged at 4.768 03:03 PM MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.782 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/09042026-mortgage-applications-mba Fri, 04 Sep 2026 18:57:00 GMT 6a9b1546db56e9acd0a7a1a7 Matthew Graham Mortgage application activity showed some signs of life last week, with a modest increase in purchase demand helping offset another decline in refinancing as mortgage rates reached their highest level in four weeks. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 0.8% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 28. Purchase applications held down the fort, rising 2% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis. Activity was still 0.2% below the same week one year ago, but the relatively stable year-over-year comparison suggests buyers are continuing to transact despite mortgage rates hovering near 7%. Refinance demand moved in the opposite direction. The Refinance Index fell 1% from the previous week and remained 19% below year-ago levels. Refinances also represented a slightly smaller share of overall activity, slipping to 41.8% from 42.0% the previous week. "Mortgage rates reached their highest levels in four weeks as investors’ concerns about inflation and growing deficits push yields higher across the globe," said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. There was another sign of borrowers adjusting to the rate environment. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity climbed to 8.0% , its highest level in five weeks, as the average rate for a 5/1 ARM fell to 5.94%. FHA loans accounted for a smaller share of applications, while the VA share increased noticeably from the previous week. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09042026 Fri, 04 Sep 2026 18:49:00 GMT 6a9b14356a50e3fa81a1552e Matthew Graham Mortgage rates have a long and storied past with the monthly jobs report. Officially titled "The Employment Situation," the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) jobs report has more power than any other monthly economic report to cause volatility in the rate market over the years. It may have lost some of that capability over the past few years, but it's always worthy of respect. With that in mind, it was an ominous sign for rates when this morning's jobs data came in MUCH stronger than expected. BLS counted 162k new jobs created compared to a median forecast of 56k. On many occasions in the past, the result of such a "beat" would have been a substantial increase in mortgage rates. These days, however, the job count carries a bit less weight than it used to for a variety of reasons. It definitely had an impact today, but a much smaller impact than career rate-watchers may have expected. Average top-tier 30yr fixed rates moved only modestly higher and remained safely below the long-term highs seen on Wednesday. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-09042026 Fri, 04 Sep 2026 15:47:06 GMT 6a9abbabaf42b3743594f5b6 Rob Chrisman Make sure that your air conditioning is in good condition, as well as clients’. Loan servicers are wondering about their collateral: “Heat in the oceans releases more slowly into the atmosphere, pushing up global temperatures the following year. The powerful 2023-24 El Nino contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record, and we should not be surprised if this record is broken. El Nino is a natural part of the weather cycle, and is not caused by climate change.” Weather prediction can be dicey, especially months in advance, but predicting population trends that lenders and investors should be aware of is easier. The world is getting older, faster than ever before. In the U.S., the share of population age 65 and over is projected to jump from 18.9 percent in 2025 to 23.4 percent by 2060. Despite continued growth of its older population, the nation will still be younger than nearly half the world’s countries by 2060. “In 2025, the United States ranked as the 48th oldest country out of 227… “By 2060, the country will fall to 110th place because countries in other regions are aging much more rapidly.” By 2025, for the first time in human history, the share of adults age 65 and over outnumbered the share of children ages 0 to 5 in the world’s population, a gap projected to increase in the coming years. (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Zillow Home Loans, Zillow’s in-house mortgage lender. With tools built for modern lending, Zillow Home Loan’s loan officers can focus on guiding buyers with care and confidence. Today’s has an interview with RETR’s Steven Wynands on putting mortgage and real estate data in the hands of originators.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-09042026 Fri, 04 Sep 2026 12:42:27 GMT 6a9acb98a6791958c5b8593a Matthew Graham The jobs count surged higher (162k vs 56k f'cast) in this morning's jobs report. While such wild divergences will have the masses crying foul, and while this is a large beat, it's not the first time that the headline job count has been this far off forecasts. This is especially understandable amid recent volatility in labor force composition. One minor saving grace is the steady unemployment rate, but unfortunately, the participation rate increased by 0.2%, which means the unemployment rate would have fallen 0.1-0.2 (depending on rounding) all else equal. Bonds weakened immediately on the news but 10yr yields are currently only 2.8 bps higher on the day. The put this in better context, it has basically erased yesterday's Waller reaction in Fed Funds Futures--not a big move in the bigger picture.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-09032026 Thu, 03 Sep 2026 20:24:33 GMT 6a99e5e8a6791958c5b6c5e7 Matthew Graham Still a Resilient Day Despite Afternoon Weakness The day's most notable development, by far, was the speech from Fed Governor Waller in which he said the Fed probably didn't need to hike at the upcoming meeting (depending on data, of course). Fed Funds Futures reacted immediately and mostly held those gains all day. The longer end of the curve ended up giving back most of the initial gains, albeit very gradually. The net effect is that we're still in "wait and see" mode--but a slightly less painful version--ahead of Friday's jobs report and next week's inflation data. Econ Data / Events Continued Claims (Aug)/22 1779.0K vs -- f'cast, 1778K prev Jobless Claims (Aug)/29 206.0K vs 205K f'cast, 203K prev Trade Gap (Jul) -88.60B vs $-90B f'cast, $-73.3B prev Unit Labour Costs QoQ FinalQ2 1.2% vs 1.3% f'cast, 1.3% prev Market Movement Recap 09:20 AM Slightly stronger overnight with additional gains after Waller speech. MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.744 10:10 AM Off best levels. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.758 01:33 PM MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 2.5bps at 4.756 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09032026 Thu, 03 Sep 2026 19:59:00 GMT 6a99d2cb342e879e70ced36e Matthew Graham Mortgage rates finally had a decent day on Thursday after spending the previous three days inching into the highest levels in more than a year. Part of the improvement was due to comments from Fed Governor Chris Waller who said that it wouldn't be necessary to hike rates at the next meeting unless inflation data surprises to the upside. Before that, the underlying bond market was already showing some resilience in overnight trading. The prevailing pattern has been a fairly reliable correlation between bond yields and oil prices. But this time around, yields held fairly steady in the overnight session even though oil prices moved higher. Mortgage rates are based on bonds, and mortgage-specific bonds correlate almost flawlessly with 5-10yr U.S. Treasuries on any given day. The net effect was a return to the week's lowest levels for a top-tier 30yr fixed rate at the average lender.  Good news notwithstanding, risks remain on the horizon. Friday morning brings important economic data in the form of the jobs report. Next week's inflation data will be just as critical. As always, data-related volatility cuts both ways. If it's much weaker than expected, rates would likely continue lower.  But if it's much higher than expected, rates would likely make new highs.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-09032026 Thu, 03 Sep 2026 15:04:13 GMT 6a996a20c8575acbe19071e1 Rob Chrisman Broker and Lender Products, Software, and Services As AI becomes embedded across the mortgage lifecycle, lenders are rethinking how they use data to drive decisions and automate workflows. They aren’t looking for more reports. They want solutions that help them detect signals, whether it's a change in borrower status, a counterparty risk flag, or a market shift, and then act on those insights. Chris McEntee, VP of Corporate and Product Development at ICE, recently sat down to discuss how ICE approaches data accessibility, governance, and scalability to help lenders build AI-ready mortgage operations and get the timely insights they need. Watch the video to learn more. Bananas are technically berries. Strawberries aren't. What else have we been looking at backwards? For years, mortgage market analysis has focused on understanding what already happened. The Optimal Blue Market Advantage report helped advance that effort with direct-source data covering more than a third of U.S. mortgage lock volume. But now the conversation is shifting from hindsight to foresight. Join Optimal Blue's Kevin Foley and Brennan O'Connell on Sept. 10 at 1 p.m. CT to see how Optimal Blue’s new Virtual Economist is designed to help lenders look through the windshield instead of the rear-view mirror. Powered by AI and machine learning, Virtual Economist helps organizations forecast potential rate and lock-volume scenarios, model market dynamics, stress-test economic assumptions, accelerate research, and identify emerging opportunities. Learn how AI-powered market intelligence can support more informed strategic planning and decision-making. Register now to explore what’s next and prepare for what may be ahead. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-09032026 Thu, 03 Sep 2026 13:56:38 GMT 6a998baca6791958c5b6137f Matthew Graham There were two separate positive developments for bonds this morning. The most obvious and actionable example was series of comments from Fed's Waller in which he basically said he wasn't interested in hiking rates right now unless inflation data surprised to the downside. Fed funds futures and bonds reacted instantly with 10yr yields ultimately dropping 2-3bps before bouncing. The less obvious example was simply the general phenomenon of bonds holding roughly sideways overnight even though oil prices moved clearly higher. This could signal some innate resilience and/or dip-buying mentality at or above the 4.80% level in 10yr yields.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-09022026 Wed, 02 Sep 2026 21:01:34 GMT 6a989dc8a6791958c5b47404 Matthew Graham Relatively Drama-Free Day These things happen from time to time. The bond market finally had an uneventful day... sorta. This may seem like a fairly odd claim for any day where yields hit the highest levels in well over a year but those were intraday highs, and they weren't much higher than yesterday's highs. During domestic hours, 10s were mostly in a 2bp range. Additionally, there were no standout market movers for better or worse. This easily meets the definition of uneventful even if it says nothing about the volatility risks over the next 2 days.  Econ Data / Events ADP Jobs 38k vs 47k f'cast, 46k prev Market Movement Recap 08:36 AM MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr unchanged at 4.793 01:59 PM MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr unchanged at 4.792 03:57 PM MBS up an eighth and 10yr down half a bp at 4.787 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full