Mr. Cheatsheet | Fantasy Baseball Draft Tools and Research

Free Agent Friday | Ride The Hot Streak | 05.18.12

2012-05-18T09:05:00.002-04:00

The hot names from the waiver wire are long gone from the month of April. Now, we're at the point where there aren't many sudden surprises and we're left scrambling for whoever is riding a hot streak (see, Raul Ibanez). But, that doesn't mean you should completely ignore the waiver wire as every team could still use a little help and there are decent options still out there. As always though, be careful who you drop. While Andy Dirks seems like a nice guy to have on your team, the pickup is only as good as the player you drop for him.

Good Pickups

Andy Dirks (OF, DET) - For those needing OF help, there's not a ton to choose from right now and Dirks is swinging a hot bat so he's a hot pickup as a result. In a full season, Dirks is the type of player who could flirt with hitting .300 but likely fall short while hitting 10-15 HR and stealing 10-15 SB. In shallow leagues, that's got some roto bench value and it's got even more value in deep leagues. He's worth a flier if you need OF help.

Brian Fuentes (RP, OAK) - When it comes to recommending picking up a new closer, I'm mainly looking to see whether they have the "stuff" to keep the job for a while. But, in reality, any closer is worth owning in a roto league because there's so few guys who can get you saves. In the case of Fuentes, he's been a closer in the past and has borderline-closer "stuff" so I could see him holding the job for a while in Oakland (and then being a trade-bait candidate at the deadline perhaps). He seems a safer bet than other borderline-closers to have the job for a while.

Dale Thayer (RP, SD) - Meanwhile, Thayer doesn't have loads of MLB experience but seems to be a viable closer candidate until Huston Street returns. Keep on rollin' with him.

Could Be Good Pickups

Christian Friedrich (SP, COL) - Friedrich was a hyped-up prospect out of the Rockies organization until he hit a rough patch in AA and then AAA. This year, he seemed to get back on the horse in his AAA appearances and now has been given a shot at the Bigs. Through two starts, the results are quite good. Depending on your league type, he's certainly worth betting on but he's definitely a wild card at this point given his struggles in the minors. He does have the potential to be a very capable starter though.

Raul Ibanez (OF, NYY) - As a Phillies fan, I watched Ibanez enough over the past few years to know what is going on here. Ibanez is a streaky player who can hit under .200 for a full month with 1 HR but then hit over .300 with 7 HR the next month. He alternated months last year with a cold April, hot May, cold June, hot July, etc. Right now, he is in that hot zone so he is worth owning. Next month, probably not. Tread lightly.

Scott Diamond (SP, MIN) - A pitcher for the Twins? Well, you know you aren't going to get many Wins out of him (despite his 2 wins in 2 starts thus far). He's got decent control and had a FIP of 3.80 or less in every step of the minors so he certainly has the ability to be a decent starter even if he is pitching for the Twins. In shallow leagues, you can probably still wait a few more starts to see how he does but he's worth pursuing in deeper leagues if you have someone droppable.

Let Someone Else Pick Them Up

Wei-Yin Chen (SP, BAL) - Chen was a wild card coming into this season but has pitched quite well. Going through a league for the first time can be beneficial for a pitcher as hitters aren't used to him yet. He won't rack up strikeouts for you but he's got decent control and has had good (but somewhat lucky) results thus far. However, xFIP and SIERA show that his ERA should be closer to 4.50 so keep that in mind. Don't sell the farm for him.

A.J. Ellis (C, LA) - He's hitting .330! But, his BABIP is .400. He's got 3 HR's in under 100 AB's! But, his HR/FB rate seems unsustainable. He's a catcher! So, let's lower our expectations. But, even as a catcher, he's shown no past history of being an offensive contributor. ZiPS has him pegged to .257 with 3 HR over the rest of the season so, yeah, you can find any catcher in the league who can do better than that. Pass.

Wednesday's Droppings | Closer Switch-A-Roo | 05.09.12

2012-05-09T09:12:00.000-04:00

It's been a big ol' closer switch-a-roo lately in the big leagues. Closers are losing jobs left and right and fantasy owners are running around like crazy trying to make sense of it all. In addition, we have some mid-round draft picks starting to struggle that has owners getting cold feet. Whether you choose to drop one of these players can have a big impact on your team's success. So, let's see who is worth dropping or hanging on to at this point.

Hang On

Nolan Reimold (OF, BAL) - He shouldn't be getting dropped like he is. He's still got the talent to hit 20 HR with 10 SB this year even after missing time due to injury. Pick him up if he's getting dropped and hold off a bit if you own him. He'll be back soon.

Mike Minor (SP, ATL) - Don't let the ERA fool you. He's had a tough run thus far but his FIP, xFIP and SIERA all point to the fact that his ERA should be under 4.00 based on how he has pitched thus far. He's had over 8 K's per 9 and under 3 BB's per 9 so he's still got the talent. Pick him up if someone drops him.

Erick Aybar (SS, ANA) - Luck has not been on his side thus far and he's giving you no reason to own him after five weeks. ZiPS has him pegged for 6 HR and 18 SB throughout the rest of the season which would put him closer to his 2010 numbers. There's some value to that in deeper leagues with a Middle Infielder spot. In shallow leagues, you may be able to find something better out there. I wouldn't cut ties with him unless there are better options.

Heath Bell (RP, MIA) - They paid him too much money to let him lose the job that quickly. Give him time and stash away if your league is deep enough.

Could Be Time

Carlos Marmol (RP, CHC) - For better or worse, the Cubs do love Marmol to a certain extent. If he can control his habit of walking tons of batters then they might just hand the keys back to him. They don't have a ton of better options that they're utilizing at the moment. In shallow leagues, drop him. In deeper leagues, he may be worth stashing to see if he can get his control back.

Clay Buchholz (SP, BOS) - I've never been a Buchholz fan and he's not giving anyone a reason to be a fan of his this year. In shallow leagues, I'd cut ties because I only see him as a 4.50-ish ERA pitcher even if he does turn it around. He has certainly been unlucky this year but keep in mind that he had been very lucky in previous years. In deeper leagues, you may not have a choice but to hang in there.

Danny Espinosa (2B, WAS) - Much like Aybar, he's had a tough go of it thus far. At this point, you can still expect to get 15 HR and 15 SB out of Espinosa the rest of the way but he will continue to kill you in the batting average department. If you can afford that then it may be worth the bit of power and speed that you can get. But, realistically, it may be better to make him someone else's problem.

Let Them Free

Tommy Milone (SP, OAK) - People got awfully excited after Milone had three good starts in his first four games. The thing that they ignored was his tiny strikeout rate and low BABIP. I've said it before and I'll say it again: I don't trust pitchers who can't strike people out. Milone has hit a rough patch now and I wouldn't own him unless it was a very deep league.

Javy Guerra (RP, LA) - When a closer loses his job, you can usually drop him unless there's strong thought that he can get the job back. I don't think Guerra is getting his job back in the near future unless Kenley Jansen starts to implode. Guerra was actually doing much better than his ERA indicates but that's neither here nor there. Drop away unless you have room to stash for a long while.

Hector Santiago (RP, CHW) - I don't even know what to make of Chicago's bullpen any longer. Chris Sale, really? So, yeah, Santiago may get the job back if Sale struggles but maybe they turn to Addison Reed or Matt Thornton. It's too much of a mess to sort out currently so I'd stay away from Santiago.

J.D. Martinez (OF, HOU) - Unless you have a spot for 10 HR without any speed and a mediocre batting average then you can drop Martinez. I think people overreacted to owning him in the first place and are starting to learn that lesson.

Others I've written about recently - Peter Bourjos

Keep in mind that shallower leagues have shorter leashes for these players than deeper leagues so you might want to cut bait on a guy earlier knowing that he won't be picked up by anybody else for the time being.

Free Agent Friday | The 3B Replacements | 05.04.12

2012-05-04T09:31:00.000-04:00

A month has gone by and the season is starting to shift. Some of the guys who had a hot streak are still riding that streak and making us think about adding them to our teams. Some closers have been bad enough to lose their jobs. And, more than anything, the dreaded injury bug is coming about and forcing us to search for injury replacements. Ah, May baseball! Gotta love it. Before you go hit up your waiver wire this morning, let's take a glance at some of the hot pickups and whether they're worth pursuing or not.

Good Pickups

Chris Davis (1B/3B, BAL) - As the old adage goes, "fool me once, shame on you... fool me twice and I'm not gonna get fooled again." With Chris Davis, he sneaks back onto the radar every year at some point with the promise of big HR totals but ends up disappointing us some way or another. But, let's forget about the past and realize that he's got a new opportunity in Baltimore this year and seems to be taking advantage of it. He may never be the 30+ HR hitter that we once dreamed of but a .260 AVG, 25 HR season is a real possibility. With the amount of injuries to third basemen this week, he's a respectable replacement for the time being.

Pedro Alvarez (3B, PIT) - There's been a lot of major injuries to third basemen this week (Evan Longoria, Pablo Sandoval, Kevin Youkilis, Mat Gamel) so it doesn't come as a big surprise that one of the hot pickups is a third basemen. Alvarez, for once, is swinging a hot bat. He has 7 multi-hit games in his last 11 and has hit 5 HR's in his last 9 games. He still has some things going against him (a lineup that doesn't produce RBI opportunities, high strikeout rate, low walk rate, etc) but he's certainly a viable temporary replacement. ZiPS has him projected to finish the season with 29 HR's and a .246 AVG at this point. If you can afford the dip in AVG and need some power then Alvarez is your man. Be wary of his slumps and be prepared to have a backup for Alvarez though.

Will Middlebrooks (3B, BOS) - It's hard to know what we'll get out of Middlebrooks but he's a power hitter with some speed and that's very valuable at the thinning 3B position. In a full season, he has the potential to hit 20 HR with 10 SB while not killing your AVG like Alvarez or Davis. But, he's a bit of a wild card given his youth. I think the three available 3B are all fairly close in value but I'd rank Middlebrooks a tiny notch above Davis then Alvarez as a temporary injury replacement for your team.

Tony Campana (OF, CHC) - In watching the Cubs/Phillies game the other day, the announcers declared Campana as maybe the fastest guy in the league. You may know him from his 24 SB last year in limited time and he already has 7 this year. The thing that keeps Campana from being a big contributor is that he's still not getting AB's. He's starting to get consistent AB's in Chicago and has the potential to be a Michael Bourn-ish player with a .275 AVG and 40-50 SB. In roto leagues, that's exactly what you want to find on the waiver wire.

Drew Smyly (SP, DET) - We don't have a lot to go off of when it comes to the young rookie. He had a brief minor league career before bursting onto the scene. But, his minor league K and BB rates match up with his MLB rates of 9 K/9 and 3.27 BB/9 thus far. He has a 1.23 ERA and hasn't been aided by a lucky BABIP or HR/FB rate. Through four starts (small sample size!), everything points to him being legit. I'd pick him up if you have some expendable pieces and bench Smyly for a couple more starts to see what he can do for ya.

Others I've Written About Recently - Bryan LaHair

Could Be Good Pickups

David Robertson or Rafael Soriano (RP, NYY) - As you know, Mariano Rivera is done for the year. We have no time for mourning in fantasy baseball so the immediate reaction is to look and see who takes over as closer in New York. Soriano has the experience in the role but Robertson has been the better reliever the past few years. There hasn't been official indication of who will get the job and you have to rely on gut feeling at this point. You can't really take your time in making a decision so either choose experience or talent and grab your choice off the wire. Personally, I always favor talent (Robertson) but MLB managers don't always follow suit. One of these two is going to be a good pickup but we just don't know who yet.

Scott Downs (RP, ANA) - The new closer in Anaheim has been lights-out thus far. I have concerns as his strikeout rate is abysmal and he's been aided by a fluky BABIP rate. But, regardless, he's the closer for now. The Angels acquired Ernesto Frieri and he could compete for the closer's role as well there. But, for the time being, pick up whatever saves Downs gets you but just don't expect him to be the long-term answer.

Let Someone Else Pick Them Up

Jed Lowrie (SS, HOU) - I have a soft spot for Lowrie as he was one of my sleeper candidates who failed me last year. I pegged him for a .275 AVG and 20 HR over a full season back then. I'm not quite so high on him any longer and see him more as a 10 HR type of guy. He can't hit for high average and doesn't have any speed. So, really, there's not anything to be excited about here.

Joe Saunders (SP, ARI) - We have over 1000 innings of baseball from Saunders to analyze and he won't suddenly become a brand new pitcher at this point in his career. He's started the season well with five nice starts but let's not get overly excited here. Someone who struggles to strikeout more than 5 batters per nine is generally not on my "want" list. He's most likely going to have a 4.50-ish ERA as the season goes on with low strikeout totals and that's not worth picking up to me.

Wednesday's Droppings | Angel In The Outfield | 05.02.12

2012-05-02T09:25:00.000-04:00

Fantasy baseball success can be categories into a variety of things including your draft skills, how good you are on the waiver wire and the trades you make. One thing that is overlooked when it comes to adding and dropping players is the ability to choose the right guys to drop. As a fantasy player, we can all look back to a certain time when we dropped a guy that ended up having a monster year. So, instead of just focusing on the hot waiver pickups, let's look at the most dropped guys around the league at this point and see if they're either worth holding onto or worth picking up once they're dropped.

Hang On

Delmon Young (OF, DET) - He wasn't hitting all too well this year to begin with and now he's suspended after an arrest off the field. The suspension seemed to be the icing on the cake for his owners as he's being dropped all over the place. Once on the field, he should be able to return to his old self for what that's worth. ZiPS has him pegged for a .280 AVG and 15 HR over the rest of the season which is about what owners were expecting out of him anyway. I'd hold onto him in deep leagues.

Hector Santiago (RP, CHW) - He had a 7.36 ERA in April and managed to remain the closer despite having Matt Thornton and Addison Reed behind him. Owners are starting to cut bait on him but he is still the official closer in Chicago so he's worth holding onto in roto leagues until he officially loses that job. Do keep in mind that 7 innings is an incredibly small sample size and he's had poor luck with BABIP and homers thus far so he will certainly regress to the mean a bit. Don't give up on him because of a bit of poor luck over 7 innings.

Paul Goldschmidt (1B, ARI) - This one hurts me so bad. As many of you know, I hyped up Goldschmidt in the preseason. He was the wrong sleeper to gawk about thus far as he's struggled mightily and now has his playing time in jeopardy. His power will certainly return sooner or later but it's a matter of whether the D-Backs have patience to wait for it (and you too). If he's being dropped, I'd pick him in up in deeper leagues for sure. Shallow leagues, you might not have the luxury. Hopefully you had an insurance plan for him because as I said in the preseason, "we've seen our fair share of young stars struggle to adjust in their first years and Goldschmidt could be no different. He represents a risk. If you draft him, create your own insurance plan behind him (the Diamondbacks did it for themselves already)."

Could Be Time

Ryan Roberts (2B, ARI) - First and foremost, Roberts has shown a tendency to be quite streaky in his career. But the month of April was more about bad luck for Roberts than anything as he's had a .176 BABIP which helped create his .152 AVG. Roberts also has a HR/FB rate that's much lower than last year but last year may have been the anomaly as far as his power. Roberts will eventually get some good lucky again and could get you 10 HR and 10 SB over the rest of the season with a .260-ish AVG. It's nothing to write home about but you shouldn't have been expecting much more out of him. In a deep league where you need a decent 2B and he's eligible, he's still worth owning.

Geovany Soto (C, CHC) - Being patient through a stretch of bad luck is very tough but this is another case of it here. Soto had a .146 BABIP in April which led to a tiny AVG and his HR/FB rate is far below career norms which resulted in hardly any HR's. His contact rate and everything else seem normal so he should be able to snap out of this. But, don't expect a return to hitting .280 with 20 HR's. Soto's true self is more along the lines of a .240 hitter with 10-15 HR's. He'll return there but you can likely find someone else who can deliver similar numbers until Soto's bat heats up again.

Let Them Free

Jair Jurrjens (SP, ATL) - It was a fast fall for Jurrjens who had a 2.96 ERA last year and is now demoted to AAA. The Braves have a lot of pitching though so the leash is short there. Regardless, once he returns, I wouldn't expect the sub-3.00 ERA Jurrjens we saw in 2011 and 2009 as both of those years were boosted by a very low BABIP. He's likely to have average strikeout totals with an ERA slightly above 4.00 if and when he returns. It's safe to cut bait on him for the time being.

Peter Bourjos (OF, ANA) - With Mike Trout getting playing time now, Bourjos is getting less of it. He had a very unlucky month of April offensively and the Angels have a crowded outfield now (side note: remember that movie Angels In The Outfield? I don't, except for that part where the angel lifts the outfielder off the ground to make a ridiculous catch which, I must say, would have infuriated me as a fan of either team). With Trout on board, Bourjos' defense won't be enough to hold his position in the outfield. For the time being, he's not worth owning in most leagues.

Rick Porcello (SP, DET) - I've never been a fan of a starter who only strikes out 4 or 5 batters per nine innings. So, I can't rightfully recommend that you hold onto Porcello or pick him up. Despite a bad game or two, he is still the same pitcher he was before with a 4.00-ish ERA, 1.35-ish WHIP and low strikeout and walk totals. If that's what you wanted on your team all along then you shouldn't cut bait on him now. I just question the move to even own him in the first place.

Keep in mind that shallower leagues have shorter leashes for these players than deeper leagues so you might want to cut bait on a guy earlier knowing that he won't be picked up by anybody else for the time being.

WERTH Roto Values - Top Hitters in April

2012-05-01T10:40:00.001-04:00

Looking at the projected WERTH values in your draft planning is a helpful tool to determine who to target and who to avoid. But, let's not just forget about WERTH values once the season starts. How much should we value someone like Starlin Castro and his 10 SB's? Just how valuable has Edwin Encarnacion been thus far in comparison to the rest of the league? It's hard to tell when we're just looking at one player's homers and AVG in comparison to a sea of other players so WERTH roto values help tell us just how valuable a player has been in each stat for a roto league by telling us how many points you theoretically would gain in the standings just by owning that player.

In the month of April, the top ten hitters based on roto values have been:

Matt Kemp
Josh Hamilton
Edwin Encarnacion
Adam Jones
Ian Kinsler
Jay Bruce
Miguel Cabrera
Curtis Granderson
Derek Jeter
David Ortiz

And, there have been the major disappointments from the first round of your drafts such as Albert Pujols (226), Jose Bautista (96), Robinson Cano (123) and Justin Upton (134). To get full perspective on the hitters in the month of April, check out the spreadsheet by downloading it here (or check out the Google Docs version that has some formatting removed).

Aside from being a handy reference in regards to the past month of baseball, this spreadsheet serves another purpose of showing the BABIP and HR/FB of each player so you can see who you might want to buy low or sell high on. Some names that stand out as having abnormally high or low totals in both areas are:

Matt Kemp (.460 BABIP, 61.1% HR/FB, #1 Rank) - It's hard to say to sell high on somebody this talented but his value will never be as high as it is now this year. In a seasonal league, you might be able to steal somebody's entire team at this point by trading away Kemp. If he hit his usual 20% HR/FB rate in April, Kemp would have had just 4 homers as opposed to 12 (he's had 7 "just enough" HR's according to HR Tracker). He's still one of the best in the game but his godly month of April won't happen all year long.
Bryan LaHair (.607 BABIP, 33.3% HR/FB, #41 Rank) - This is a guy that you should sell high on. He's had five homers and 4 of them are of the "just enough" variety. His BABIP is at a ridiculous number which means his AVG will surely drop. And, on top of that, he's got a 35.7% strikeout rate with a measly 66% contact rate which shows that he has holes in his swing. He could very well still hit 20-25 HR with an okay batting average but his value is at its peak right now.
Jose Bautista (.179 BABIP, 9.4% HR/FB, #97 Rank) - If Joey Bats hit 20% HR/FB instead of 9.4% then he would have 7 HR's already. Instead, he's got 3 with a tiny batting average due to poor BABIP. The time is now to buy low on him. I still think the .300 batting average from 2011 was a fluke but if you get a .250 AVG and 30 HR's from here on out then that's got some value if you can swing a good deal for him. Don't trade for him expecting a .300 AVG but try to get his owner to part ways before the HR's start coming back.

Feel free to check through the rest of the list and see who else jumps out as these are just a few of the names in the spreadsheet that are marked with big red boxes around their BABIP or HR/FB. With May upon us, the time to start making some key trades has begun.

Free Agent Friday | Hot Starts | 04.20.12

2012-04-20T10:03:00.000-04:00

We're getting to the point in the season when we can actually kinda start to believe in some of these players who are having hot starts. And, thankfully, we're just about past the point where the hottest pickups are all closers. As you look at your roster for who to drop, which hot starters are worth adding to your team at this point? Well, that fully depends on who you're thinking about dropping but let's take a look to see who is worth a damn at least...

Good Pickups

Nolan Reimold (OF, BAL) - I was pretty pumped about Reimold back in January and he hasn't disappointed thus far. Like I said back then, a 25 HR season with 10 SB is not out of the question and is actually pretty realistic. Go grab him off your waivers now if he's still available!

Kyle Drabek (SP, TOR) - Drabek had a pretty nice minor league career and has long been a top prospect but he really stunk it up in 2011 both in the majors and minors (6.06 ERA and 7.44 ERA respectively). Through two starts this year, he seems to be more aligned with his minor league numbers. He has the chance to be a 3.75-ish ERA pitcher with decent strikeout totals. There's definitely room for someone like that on your roster in deeper leagues so he's worth stashing away.

Luke Scott (OF, BAL) - We've never doubted Luke Scott's power numbers and he seems to be showing t hat this year. Instead of hitting solo HR's for the hapless Orioles, he's now on a team where he might actually get more Run and RBI opportunities. For those looking to add a little power to their teams, he's a very nice option.

Bryan LaHair (OF, CHC) - LaHair has been stuck at the AAA level since 2006 with the exception of 150 MLB plate appearances a few years back. In the past three AAA seasons, he hit 89 HR with a .309 AVG. The only reason he likely hasn't gotten a shot yet is because he's not a young pup but he's responding well in his first shot this year with 2 HR already. In a deeper league, it's definitely worth taking a shot on LaHair to see if really can deliver a 30 HR season in the bigs because he certainly has the potential for it.

Others I've Written About Recently - Lance Lynn, Danny Duffy, Adam LaRoche

Could Be Good Pickups

Cody Ross (OF, BOS) - In Cody's best season, he hit 24 HR with a .270 AVG and that would certainly be handy if he's on pace to replicate that after his hot start. However, I expect a slight power decrease in Fenway for him and his average has seemingly dipped a bit each year. So if we're playing the expectations game then let's say a .255 AVG, 20 HR, some bat flips and a dose of swagger would be what to expect in a full season of Cody Ross. It's ownable in deep leagues but now in smaller leagues.

Matt Carpenter (3B, STL) - He won't give you power and he won't give you speed but he can hit for a good average so there's some value to that. He's filling in at the hot corner while Lance Berkman is injured and he can be helpful for teams looking for a bit of an AVG boost. However, if you pick him up expecting more than that then you might be hoping for too much.

Santiago Casilla (RP, SF) - Is he better than Sergio Romo? No, but it seems like he'll be getting the bulk of the save opportunities in San Francisco. He's a decent closer but nothing to write home about. However, you can't get too picky when it comes to getting saves for your roto team so make sure he's picked up.

Others I've Written About Recently - Fernando Rodney

Let Someone Else Pick Them Up

Nobody really jumps out in this category for this week but check the write-ups below for why you should avoid the temptation to go after Barry Zito or Jordan Schafer.

Others I've Written About Recently - Jordan Schafer, Barry Zito

Free Agent Friday | Fresh Milk | 04.13.12

2012-04-13T10:26:00.000-04:00

The season is still fresh and new. If you bought some milk on Opening Day last week, it likely hasn't passed its expiration date yet. So, making any big free agent moves at this point in time should be done cautiously. While there are decent options of guys to pick up out there, they are on the waiver wire for a reason and the guys on your team were drafted with good reason as well. So, before you drop anyone, take a deep breath and maybe go for a walk and think about it. I'm going to note some good options for possible pickups for this week but you shouldn't drop one of your potential sleepers just because they're struggling and Barry Zito pitched one good game. In other words, be very wary of who you drop at this point.

Good Pickups

Adam LaRoche (1B, WAS) - Ah, yes, good ol' Adam LaRoche. In a full year of play, he's pretty consistent in what he'll give you and it's usually a .270 AVG with 25 HR's. But, when Michael Morse returns, the question will be whether LaRoche stays at 1B. The answer is most likely "yes" as Morse can play OF and Washington has holes there that he could fill. You know what you're going to get with LaRoche and it's pretty good.

Lance Lynn (SP, STL) - You may remember Lynn as the guy who was tabbed to fill in as a starter (instead of Roy Oswalt) while Chris Carpenter heals himself. In his first start, he mystified a strong Brewers offense with 8 K's, 2 H and 1 BB. It was a phenomenal start and he has the potential to deliver good results in this role. I wouldn't expect the strikeouts to continue at that rate based on his minor league numbers but he should be a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher with decent control. That's certainly ownable in deeper leagues but be careful who you drop for him as he's likely a temporary solution.

Danny Duffy (SP, KC) - Danny Duffy had shown promise in his minor league career of becoming a low ERA, high strikeout pitcher who may struggle with control here and there (but as so bad like an Edinson Volquez, for instance). Last year, he started 20 games as a rookie and the results were not pretty. But, this year, in his first start, he looked more like the guy he was projected to become. He has the potential to have a big year with high strikeout totals and low ERA. For that reason, it's likely worth stashing him if your roster is deep enough and you have someone expendable to cut.

Kyle Seager (3B, SEA) - ZiPS had projected Seager to hit .267 with 8 HR and 11 SB in a full season of work. That's not very attractive in fantasy leagues. However, that is a fairly conservative projection as Seager hit .328 over his minor league career so has the potential to hit for high average. He doesn't have a ton of power or speed but any player hitting over .300 has pretty good value. His role with the Mariners is questionable but he could be a super-utility player once their team gets healthy. He's worth stashing if you need a boost in AVG.

Others I've Written About Recently - Chris Parmelee

Could Be Good Pickups

Hector Santiago (RP, CHW) - First, a disclaimer when it comes to any closer - they're all worth owning in roto leagues as long as they're getting saves. But, is Santiago a good long-term solution? That's harder to say. He was a Single-A pitcher for years until making the jump to Double-A last year and then he is now suddenly a major league closer. As a result, we don't have a ton of history to evaluate here; he's a wild card in that respect. The major concern here is that his job is not 100% secure and any potential hiccups will cause people to call for Addison Reed or Matt Thornton who both seem to be made to close games. Because of that uncertainty, he remains a somewhat risky option to rely on.

Fernando Rodney (RP, TB) - Unless Rodney is unstoppable over the next few weeks, he is just holding down the fort until Kyle Farnsworth gets back. Control has been a problem for Rodney as he's always struggled with letting up walks. But, regardless, he is the closer for the time being and that's a valuable thing. If he blows a save or two (which seems inevitable based on past history) then the team might go back to throwing one of their many other options into the role until Farnsworth comes back. But, for the time being, Rodney is worth owning in roto leagues.

Chone Figgins (3B, SEA) - Let me start by saying that his .330 AVG in 2007 was obviously a fluke but also say that his .188 AVG in 2011 was very much a fluke too (his career .281 AVG is likely where his talent level lies). His role is muddled with him playing LF as Kyle Seager plays 3B while Mike Carp is out but he's leading off and doing it well for the time being. I wouldn't drop a great player for Chone but if you have someone expendable then it's worth looking at Figgins as a potential .280 hitter with 30-40 SB.

Let Someone Else Pick Them Up

Barry Zito (SP, SF) - Hey, look, Barry Zito had a good game. We've seen Zito pitch over 2,000 innings in his career so to expect him to be a different pitcher based off of one good game is foolish. He's still a 4.50-ish ERA pitcher with 1.40-ish WHIP and unexciting strikeout totals. Pass.

Jordan Schafer (OF, HOU) - In half a season, Schafer stole 22 bases last year while only hitting .242. He already had a 3 SB game this year that has people jumping to him on the waiver wire. If Schafer could hit for decent AVG, he could likely steal a ton of bases on the year. Unfortunately, there's no reason to expect him to hit for anything much higher than .245 or so despite his hot start this year. His current totals seem to be more about small sample sizes rather than a potential breakout.

Podcast | Fantasy Baseball Performance Enhancing Discussions, Ep. 5

2012-04-09T20:37:00.000-04:00

In a weekly feature here, we present another episode of the entertaining weekly podcast that is hosted by me and Russ, my co-host who will represent the average inquisitive fantasy player. Step away from baseball statistics and step into the world of insightful and witty fantasy baseball banter.

Episode 5: Fantasy League Types 101
This week, we discuss the various league types that exist in fantasy baseball from 5x5 roto to point-based leagues and head-to-head roto. We discuss the merits of each and exchange some fantasy war stories about each type. In this mini-cast, we merely conclude with the resource of the week (MLB.tv) after the topic of the week.

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Go ahead and subscribe to the podcast RSS feed and/or subscribe on iTunes. Also, it would be a huge help if you'd rate and review us on iTunes. Beyond that, leave us some comments about the show and submit mailbag questions for future episodes!

(Also, make sure to follow the Twitter account for Russ: @mrscheatsheet)

Free Agent Friday | Closers Galore | 04.06.12

2012-04-06T09:15:00.000-04:00

We've played less than 0.5% of the baseball that will be played this season thus far but that shouldn't stop you from shopping around your waiver wire for potential values. At this point in the season, the biggest movement on the waiver wire is all about closers. Lots of situations are still murky and now are becoming clear on Opening Day so closers are being snatched up like crazy. Most of the time, any closer that is starting is worth a shot because saves are so valuable but let's dive into this week's possible waiver wire picks and see who is worth a shot.

Good Pickups

Brad Lidge (RP, WAS) - Lidge is a good pickup like hiring a temp worker for your office is a good hire. Lidge is a temporary solution in Washington until Storen returns but if you want cheap saves then step right up. At the end of the year when you're vying for position in the saves category, those extra two or three saves you get from Lidge may be worth it. Get the saves over the next week or two then cut bait. He will be alternating save chances with Henry Rodriguez so keep an eye on him too. This is one of those situations that is clearly defined at least so you know what you're getting.

Chris Parmelee (1B, MIN) - I pegged Parmelee as a potential sleeper but it didn't seem like he would get a chance to start this year so I didn't dive too far into evaluating him on this website. In deeper leagues, Parmelee could end up having value as a corner infielder though. He's not a game changer but it seems like he could hit .275 with 20 HR and maybe 90 RBI and 80 Runs on the season. Those type of numbers would be very nice to snatch up off the waiver wire.

Alejandro De Aza (OF, CHW) - I hyped him up already here but just wanted to give him another shout-out since he still available in many leagues.

Bartolo Colon (SP, OAK) - Colon restarted his career in a big way last year and it seems like the renaissance will continue in Oakland. Steamer has him projected for a 3.89 ERA and 1.29 WHIP which is quite nice for a waiver wire pickup. He's gotten the attention of the fantasy world with his start against the Mariners where he went 8 strong innings and picked up the win. Yes, it was the lowly Mariners but I still think Colon is a good option for deeper fantasy rotations.

Could Be Good Pickups

Matt Thornton (RP, CHW) - Thornton will be a tremendous option if he closes for the White Sox this year. The key word in that last sentence is "if". For whatever reason, the Sox still have not officially named a closer so Thornton still represents a risk if you decide to roll with him. If he gets the job, he racks up a ton of strikeouts without a huge walk rate and has posted an xFIP of under 3.00 in four consecutive seasons. Sign me up.

Jonathan Broxton (RP, KC) - The mystery of who would take over for Joakim Soria is finally solved. Originally, it seemed like Greg Holland was the obvious choice but it became more clear each day that the Royals were leaning towards Broxton. Now, it becomes official that it is Broxton and he becomes a decent option for your team but I have my worries still. Steamer has him projected for a 3.80 ERA, 1.39 WHIP with 8.55 K/9 and 4.11 BB/9. For a closer, this seems a bit scary for my tastes. With Holland breathing down his neck, that high of a walk rate may not cut it early on.

Alfredo Aceves (RP, BOS) - Let's see... He's a closer... He's on a winning ball club... That all sounds well and good but there are some caveats here. Thus far in his career, he's had an ugly 4.54 xFIP with low strikeout rates and decent walk rates. When I'm looking at a closer, I want low xFIP with high strikeout rates ideally. So, this raises a red flag with me. Boston has enough other options that I could see them moving on from Aceves after a few poor performances. I'm not sold here.

Let Someone Else Pick Them Up

Joel Peralta (RP, TB) - With Kyle Farnsworth ailing, there is some mystery about who will pick up the save opportunities in Tampa Bay. There has been no indication of who that will be and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rays do a closer-by-committee situation. Tampa has a variety of options and likely won't commit strongly to any of them until Farnsworth returns. People seem to be jumping to Peralta on the waiver wire but I'd just stay away from this situation as there doesn't seem to be a strong favorite and even Peralta isn't a lights-out option if he does close for the time being.

2012's Targeted Players (Or Guys I Drafted To Multiple Teams)

2012-04-05T07:30:00.000-04:00

I write about fantasy baseball drafts a lot here, if you haven't noticed, and I also talk about it a lot too. With the MLB season not being in full swing yet with fantasy draft season concluded, we have a lull in the action at the moment. But, as a reader, you may be wondering who I ended up drafting in my leagues and who I'll be cheering on this year. While some of the guys I targeted are obvious (Paul Goldschmidt and my other sleepers), there's some that may surprise you as they even surprised me.

I'm actually in four fantasy leagues and they are each incredibly different (which stresses the importance of knowing your league type and planning according to that structure). I'm in two point-based leagues with different scoring formats which radically change the values of certain players. Two of my leagues are long-time keeper leagues and one league was drafting keepers for the first time. I'm in one traditional 5x5 roto league and one 6x6 league (which uses Holds and OBP/SLG). So, it goes without saying that each league of mine has different concerns and focus but certain players still rise to the top in terms of being undervalued across the board and I snatch them up wherever I can.

There wasn't one player who ended up on all four of my teams but there were five players on three of them and twelve players on two of them. Let's take a gander into the mind of Mr. Cheatsheet to see just who I ended up targeting this year:

Third Time's A Charm
In three of my four leagues, I drafted some of my big sleepers like Paul Goldschmidt, Lucas Duda and Jason Kipnis. The reasons that I targeted them shouldn't be surprising if you read my sleeper profiles about each of them. The two other players that I drafted in three leagues were Mark Reynolds and Edwin Jackson.

We know what we're going to get with Reynolds. In three of my leagues, that happens to be a bit more valuable because of the league formats. His AVG is the one thing that absolutely kills you but it's not as heart-breaking in my 6x6 roto league where OBP is used instead and SLG is a category too. In my two point leagues, HR's are overvalued and strikeouts don't play a huge factor (while walks are rewarded nicely) so he's a nicer play in those leagues. In my 5x5 league, I avoided him though. I'm holding out hope that he gets traded to a team that uses him at DH given his horrible play at 3B may cost him playing time but I felt he was a nice value in my league types regardless.

Edwin Jackson is not going to make or break any of my teams. He's one of those late round grabs that may be handy for the right situations though. He's a bit undervalued as he had a 3.71 and 3.73 xFIP over the past two seasons and a fairly high BABIP that should drop. If I can get a pitcher with a potential 3.75 ERA and decent strikeout totals in the last rounds then, sure, I'll do that. He's not going to surprise anyone this year but there's worse guys to grab towards the end of a draft.

It Takes Two
I drafted a lot of guys twice. Some were on my sleeper lists (Desmond Jennings, Alejandra De Aza, Brandon Beachy) so I won't harp on them too much. A few of them were carried over as keepers from my teams so I can't really say I drafted them for a particular reason related to their value in drafts this year (Dan Uggla, Madison Bumgarner, Justin Upton). So, the guys left over would be Mike Napoli, Stephen Strasburg, Mike Minor, Ryan Dempster, B.J. Upton, and Chris Capuano. I won't devote a paragraph to each of those but here's a short blurb at least:

Mike Napoli - Needed power in two roto leagues and one of them was a two catcher auction league where he was being undervalued. So, the Napoli Experiment begins for me.
Stephen Strasburg - I drafted him in an auction keeper league where he surprisingly went for a very low price after other drafters spent too much early. The other league I got him fairly early in a redraft league but I really do feel that the 160 IP we get out of him will be lights out this year. It's a gamble though.
Mike Minor - Given his relative lack of experience, I got him for a cheap price despite the fact that he pitches for one of the best NL teams and has as high of a ceiling as any other young pitcher this year (he's a former early first round draft pick after all). In 123 IP, he's had a 3.63 xFIP in the majors with 8.76 K/9. That's awesome value for the late rounds.
Ryan Dempster - Over the past four seasons, his xFIP has been as low as 3.69 and as high as 3.76. To say he's been consistent would be an understatement. Don't be fooled by his 4.80 ERA last year; this is still the same Dempster at a lower draft price.
B.J. Upton - I drafted him before he went onto the DL but, like Mark Reynolds, he's a valuable player to a roto team if you build your team around his weakness in AVG. A hitter who can potential hit over 20 HR and steal over 40 bases? You can find a way to make that work if you play your cards right.
Chris Capuano - He seemed like a completely different pitcher last year than the old Brewer we knew. His strikeout rate increased and his walk rate dropped yet his ERA was 4.55 due to some poor luck. I see him being a valuable pitcher this year hopefully with some better luck in Los Angeles. As far as late round pitcher options go, I felt he was worth the a bench spot.

So, now you know the guys that I will officially be rooting hard for in 2012. Some of them will fail and some of them will work out and only time will tell who those will be. The MLB season has finally started so let the fun begin of finding out just how good our drafts really were. Play ball!

Podcast | Fantasy Baseball Performance Enhancing Discussions, Ep. 4

2012-04-03T07:30:00.000-04:00

In a weekly feature here, we present another episode of the entertaining weekly podcast that is hosted by me and Russ, my co-host who will represent the average inquisitive fantasy player. Step away from baseball statistics and step into the world of insightful and witty fantasy baseball banter.

Episode 4: The Tradition of Live Drafting
This week, we discuss why live fantasy baseball drafts are so essential to a good fantasy league. Given that drafts have concluded and the season hasn't started, this live-ish episode focuses less on the analytical and strategical aspects of fantasy baseball and more on the tradition-based aspects of it. In the broken news, we discuss Ryan Madson's replacement, Michael Pineda's DL stint and the return of Johan Santana.

Notes:

Given that this was recorded in a different format, the audio quality is a bit different than you may be used to. Back to normal next week.
We mention a draft board service on the show but didn't know the name of it. Their website is: http://www.revolabels.com/

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Roto Stats by 2012 Draft Round (Hitters)

2012-03-27T09:08:00.002-04:00

In a roto league, you hope to finish near the top in five categories for pitchers and hitters. How well you do in those categories will be largely determined by your draft strategy. If you target SB's early then you might find yourself weak in HR's and RBI's later, for instance. In a past post, you learned that SB's have the lowest correlation to success in other roto categories but that only answers part of the question about how to approach your roto categories in a draft. The other part of the process is knowing when each stat is available in drafts.

At the beginning of a draft, you can pick your proverbial poison by taking a great power hitter or a well-rounded player. As you make each draft pick, the player pool shrinks a bit more and your options become limited. Let's visually look at how each stat breaks down during a 2012:

If you want a closer look, go ahead and click on the image above. But, basically, what we see is the projected trend for each stat throughout the draft. The flatter the line is in the middle, the less variability there is throughout the draft for that stat. For example, the Stolen Base line is very flat which shows that there are nearly just enough SB's to be found in Round 1 as Round 26. Meanwhile, the Runs line has a very steep drop in comparison to the other stats which means that it's a top-heavy stat being that you can mostly find strong run producers in the early rounds but not the late rounds.

Here's a closer visual of each trend. The two flattest lines are AVG (blue) and SB (orange) which means that you shouldn't necessarily have to overpay for those stats early as you can still find them later in the draft. The least flat lines would then be HR, Runs and RBI's. These stats all go hand-in-hand so it's especially important to target them together in the early rounds.

Basically, what all of these pretty charts show us is that you need to work on finding power early and then you can focus on AVG and SB in the later rounds. If you work on getting a great AVG and SB players on your team in the first few rounds, you'll find yourself without any options for power in the later rounds. If you want to dominate in all five categories, don't overly focus on drafting speed in the early rounds.

2012 Hitter Round-Up | Fantasy Sleeper Candidates

2012-03-25T08:00:00.000-04:00

Now that I've exhausted my list of potential sleepers, it's time to see who is actually worth drafting for the 2012 season. I've talked about 11 different hitters as potential sleepers for your team but obviously you don't want your roster to be filled with all 11 of them because that would just be wacky! So, that begs the question of who you should be really targeting in your drafts here.

In the early rounds, there are two potential sleepers sitting out there who have not given us a full year of MLB success but certainly have great potential:

Desmond Jennings (OF, TB) - Early Round - Great option
Brett Lawrie (3B, TOR) - Early Round - Great option

I like both of these players quite a bit but I would love them if they were found a couple rounds later. As it stands, they're both going in the 5th round on average in a 12-team league. They have the potential to deliver a lot more than that but going with a sleeper that early is always a risky proposition. Regardless, I have confidence that they're both very good options at that point if you decide to go with either one.

The guys I really like to grab are usually found in the middle rounds. If we're to look at the history of successful sleepers, there's a lot of evidence that points to guys taken in the middle rounds being the biggest difference makers. In 2008, Jacoby Ellsbury and Josh Hamilton played that role. In 2009, that guy was Nelson Cruz for me and then it was Carlos Gonzalez in 2010. And, last year, that mid-round sleeper was Mike Stanton. This year, we have two mid-rounds sleepers on my list that could produce at the same level as those past mid-round sleepers:

Paul Goldschmidt (1B, ARI) - Middle Round - Great option
Jason Kipnis (2B, CLE) - Middle Round - Good option

I like Goldy quite a lot and expect big things of him this year. Jason Kipnis has 20/20 potential which is great as a late round middle infielder. He's the only middle infielder on the sleeper lists actually so he's definitely worth targeting as well. Given their lower price tag and higher ceilings, these are guys that I'm setting my sights on.

For 2012, all of the potential late round sleepers are outfielders so perhaps you should consider leaving some space on your roster for high potential backup outfielders. These guys aren't always the biggest stars but some can really break through to help you out like Michael Morse last year (or Brett Gardner in 2010 and Shin-Soo Choo in 2009). Here are the guys that fit the mold this year:

Lucas Duda (OF, NYM) - Late Round - Great option
Alejandro De Aza (OF, CHW) - Late Round - Great option
Nolan Reimold (OF, BAL) - Late Round - Good option
John Mayberry, Jr. (OF, PHI) - Late Round - Good option
Alex Presley (OF, PIT) - Late Round - Decent option
Chris Heisey (OF, CIN) - Late Round - Decent option
Jason Bourgeious (OF, KC) - Late Round - Decent option

In my analysis, it looks like Duda and De Aza have the highest values of these late round options. Next in line would be Reimold and Mayberry as good options too. While I'm not quite as high on Presley, Heisey or Bourgeious, they certainly are decent options to take a chance on in much deeper leagues. Otherwise, they can be left on the waiver wire for now and picked up if they start to heat up.

All in all, I wouldn't load my entire team with sleepers since only a percentage of the sleepers on this list will pan out. On this week's podcast, we discussed this a bit more extensively. But, regardless, I love the mid-round sleepers this year (as I always do) and I definitely will get one or two of the late round sleepers as my backup outfielders too.

Podcast | Fantasy Baseball Performance Enhancing Discussions, Ep. 3

2012-03-24T07:30:00.000-04:00

In a new feature at this site, there will be an entertaining weekly podcast that is hosted by me and Russ, my co-host who will represent the average inquisitive fantasy player. Close up your spreadsheets and step away from your draft articles as we set out to entertain you and educate you in regards to fantasy baseball strategy.

Before we break into this week's episode, you must watch the awesome promo Russ created for the podcast featuring his son reenacting great baseball movie moments:

Episode 3: Drafting Fantasy Sleepers
In this episode, Russ and I discuss how to go about drafting fantasy sleepers and the caveats that go along with these risky players. We also discuss Miguel Cabrera's eye injury, Joakim Soria's replacement and Bryce Harper. In the weekly quiz, Russ struggles to figure out who last year's statistical leaders were. The mailbag question focuses on how many sleepers to target and I find a way to mention Paul Goldschmidt in another podcast.

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Go ahead and subscribe to the seperate podcast RSS feed and subscribe and rate us on iTunes. More importantly, leave us some comments about the show and submit mailbag questions for future episodes!

(Also, make sure to follow the Twitter account for Russ: @mrscheatsheet)

2012 Position Analysis & Draft Outlook - Outfielders

2012-03-23T09:13:00.001-04:00

Determining position scarcity at the outfield position is a tricky venture because the depth of the position is completely relative to the number of outfielders that you start in your league. In a three outfielder league, you may think that this position is incredibly deep but an owner in a five outfielder league may be pretty upset with the options for his starting 5th outfielder. Regardless of how we look at it, there is talent to be found throughout the entire draft for this position though.

Here's a glance at how the position progresses throughout a standard 12-team draft:

The various outfielders are represented by the grey dots with the draft round going horizontally and the projected roto value going vertically. There's a mix of some really elite talent in the first few rounds before the value seemingly drops down a level from Round 3 to 8 and then takes another huge dip towards mediocrity after that.

That's all fine and good but let's see how that sort of trend compares to the other positions out there:

The trend for outfielders is represented by the red line with the grey lines representing all of the other positions. In comparison to most other positions, this is the most standard regression we'll see. In the first few rounds of the draft, it's one of the highest producing positions and it stays towards the top in the middle rounds while even finishing among the highest producing positions towards the end.

Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun are the cream of the crop here. If we take a step down from those two, there's a nice tier of similarly valued players with Jose Bautista, Jacoby Ellsbury, Justin Upton, Carlos Gonzalez and Curtis Granderson. Any one of those players is projected to give you nice value but they're all gone by the conclusion of the second round.

At that point, we see the next drop in talent with a group of players like Andrew McCutchen to Carl Crawford over the next four rounds. By the conclusion of the 6th round, you hope to have two good outfielders for your squad because the talent drops off considerably after that. But, that's not to say there isn't value to be had. For instance, B.J. Upton and Adam Jones project quite well over those next few rounds but they are outliers among the next group of players.

In the later rounds, when you're looking to either fill up your bench or your final OF spots in a five outfielder league, there are a couple of decent options. Nick Markakis represents the best late round value as he is seemingly always undervalued. Austin Jackson, Alex Rios and Delmon Young are decent late round options as well to fill out your team that are a bit undervalued but have a nice history.

And, of course, there are some saucy sleeper options in the late rounds here even if the projections don't show a breakout coming. This position has more late round sleepers than any with tons of talented players getting new opportunities. Just to name a few, you may want to look at Lucas Duda, John Mayberry, Alejandro De Aza or a Nolan Reimold as nice sleepy outfielders to stash away.

This is a position that you can't ignore early on. You have to try to get at least two above average options even if you're in a three outfielder league. When it comes to outfielders, the talent is distributed in noticeable waves so you need to plan accordingly. A good strategy is to get the guys you can trust early, the guys who might take a step forward in the middle rounds, a couple of trustworthy guys to fill out your lineup before you fill out your roster with the potential breakout stars.

Outfielder Average Draft Position and Projected Value in 12-Team League

Name	ADP Rd	Werth Total
Matt Kemp	1.2	8.1
Jose Bautista	1.4	5.1
Jacoby Ellsbury	1.8	5.4
Justin Upton	1.9	5.7
Carlos Gonzalez	2.2	5.8
Curtis Granderson	2.6	5.1
Ryan Braun	2.6	8.8
Mike Stanton	3	3.5
Andrew McCutchen	3.2	3.3
Josh Hamilton	3.7	2.8
Matt Holliday	3.9	3.4
Hunter Pence	4.7	3.3
Nelson Cruz	4.7	1
Jay Bruce	4.9	2.6
Michael Bourn	5.3	2.3
Carl Crawford	6	2.2
Desmond Jennings	6.2	-1.2
Alex Gordon	6.4	0.8
Michael Morse	6.5	-0.5
Shane Victorino	6.6	0.8
Shin-Soo Choo	6.8	-1.3
B.J. Upton	7.1	2.1
Lance Berkman	7.2	0.3
Corey Hart	7.9	0.5
Adam Jones	8.1	2
Michael Cuddyer	8.7	1.3
Ichiro Suzuki	8.8	1.1
Brett Gardner	8.8	0.1
Jason Heyward	9.1	-1.6
Drew Stubbs	9.4	0.2
Jayson Werth	9.6	0.6
Chris B. Young	10.3	-1
Andre Ethier	10.9	0.2
Carlos Beltran	11	-1.4
Cameron Maybin	11.4	-2.2
Nick Markakis	12.1	1.6
Nick Swisher	12.2	0.5
Logan Morrison	13.2	-2.7
Coco Crisp	13.2	-1.7
Martin Prado	13.4	-2
Melky Cabrera	13.6	0.1
Peter Bourjos	13.8	-1.8
Jeff Francoeur	15.3	-0.3
Torii Hunter	15.4	0.3
Austin Jackson	15.6	-0.1
Matt Joyce	15.6	-1.7
Carlos Lee	15.9	-0.1
Angel Pagan	16	-1.1
Josh Willingham	16.8	-1.7
Juan Pierre	17.4	-3.7
Brandon Belt	17.5	-4.6
Alex Rios	17.6	-0.6
Delmon Young	17.7	-0.1
Colby Rasmus	17.8	-0.5
Dexter Fowler	18.1	-2.6
Lucas Duda	18.1	-4
Brennan Boesch	18.2	-1.1
Jose Tabata	18.2	-2.6
Carlos Quentin	18.3	-2.5
Jason Kubel	18.4	-2.5
Mike Trout	18.4	-4.9
Lorenzo Cain	18.5	-6.2
Jason Bourgeois	18.9	-6.5
Yonder Alonso	18.9	-6.4
Seth Smith	19	-3.3
Vernon Wells	19	-2.9
John Mayberry	19.1	-4.4
Alejandro De Aza	19.3	-3.6
Ben Revere	19.4	-3.7
Grady Sizemore	19.5	-5.8
Alfonso Soriano	19.7	-3.6
Nyjer Morgan	19.7	-4.3
Jason Bay	19.7	-2.7
Rajai Davis	19.8	-4.9
Allen Craig	20	-4.5
Dayan Viciedo	20.1	-3.6
Chris Heisey	20.1	-4.7
Ryan Raburn	20.1	-4
Michael Brantley	20.1	-3
J.D. Martinez	20.1	-3.7
Bryan LaHair	20.5	-5.7
Alex Presley	20.6	-3.8
Garrett Jones	20.7	-3
Domonic Brown	20.7	-7.1
Denard Span	20.7	-3.5
Luke Scott	20.8	-5.1
Raul Ibanez	21.1	-4.1
Will Venable	21.2	-3.7
Jon Jay	21.7	-3.3
Ryan Ludwick	21.7	-3
Nolan Reimold	21.9	-4.9
Eric Thames	22	-3.2
Josh Reddick	22.7	-5.4
David Murphy	23.5	-2.8
Cody Ross	23.6	-3.6
Andres Torres	24.3	-4.6
Jerry Sands	24.4	-7.1
Travis Snider	25.3	-6.7
Marlon Byrd	26.1	-3.5
David DeJesus	26.2	-3.4
Chris Coghlan	26.2	-6.5
Franklin Gutierrez	26.5	-5
Brent Lillibridge	29.1	-7
Juan Rivera	32.4	-4.4

How to Use Projections for Fantasy Baseball

2012-03-22T08:35:00.003-04:00

There are basically two types of baseball projection systems that exist: human projections and scientific projections. The human projections would be the type you see at ESPN or CBS where they have their staff make their best guess at what a player will do next season. The scientific projections are based off of formulas and weighting systems taking into account various factors related to past player performance. These would be systems like Marcel, ZiPS or Steamer.

When relying on the scientific projections, we get a good sense of what we should expect out of players for the upcoming season. These systems generally follow a method of taking data from that player's recent history and weighting the most recent years more heavily than older years. The projection systems differ from each other by the amount of weighting used and the different factors used for the weighting. They also differ in the stats they use and that some systems take advantage of minor league or foreign league data while others do not. But, in the end, the basic concept of taking history from recent years and weighting it based on a number of factors is the same between all projection systems.

When using these projections for fantasy baseball purposes, there are generally a few caveats to keep in mind as a result:

They are a conservative estimate. Since the projections look at the past statistics, an unexpected breakout season is generally not going to be predicted. Maybe you think that John Mayberry will break out this year. However, projection systems will not predict that because of his limited playing time (and thus limited production) during his career thus far. If past data doesn't show someone to be a 20/20 player then projection systems won't bend out of their way to make that prediction. So, if you're browsing through the projections to see your favorite sleeper then don't worry if he's not projected to take a large step forward based on data from ZiPS or Marcel.
Following along that same train of thought, rookie projections aren't as reliable. These systems are based on using past data and the lack of that data for rookies muddles things. Some of the projection systems take minor league data into account which does improve their projections of rookies. But, even with those systems, you may be surprised to see a lower projection for a rookie than you expected. That shouldn't stop you from drafting that player if you really believe in them though.
On the flipside, projections for veterans are more reliable. When a guy has played in the majors for 10 years or so, the margin of error for a projection is a lot lower because there's so much data to use in making a prediction for them. Almost all systems take into account an aging curve so they recognize that performance for a 35 year old will be similar to his past three years but worse to a certain degree. More data to use for projections means more reliable data.

These are just some of the implications of using scientific projection systems. While they give you extremely accurate data, some of it is more reliable than others. The cheatsheets that you have come to know and love here rely heavily on these type of scientific projections so it's important to keep these type of things in mind as you use the cheatsheets for your drafts this year. Projection systems are great but they do have their shortcomings.

Alejandro De Aza - 2012 Fantasy Sleeper Candidate

2012-03-19T07:30:00.000-04:00

There are a couple of fantasy baseball deep sleepers each year that can make the difference for your team. The following 2012 profile of Alejandro De Aza will analyze the chances that he might be one of the next big sleepers. He was selected based on my simple selection process which is detailed in this introductory post.

ADP as of this posting: 228.35 (Round 20 in 12-team league)

Projected 2012 Role: Starting OF

2011 Production: .329 AVG, 4 HR, 29 R, 23 RBI, 12 SB in 171 PA

My 2012 Prediction: .300 AVG, 10 HR, 90 R, 55 RBI, 35 SB as starter

Leading off for the White Sox this year will be the young Alejandro De Aza. Last year, he had 13 HR, 34 SB and hit .324 between AAA and the majors. If he could bring those numbers into a full year of being a major league leadoff hitter then, wow, watch out.

My first concern with him is whether than ridiculous batting average will stick around. Playing in the Winter Leagues, he hit for a measly .198 AVG so that's not a good sing. He's only hitting .240 in this spring thus far as well. Add to all that that he had a huge BABIP of over .400 last year and it leads us to believe a regression is ahead but thankfully I don't see foresee a gigantic regression. In three seasons at AAA, he hit over .300 in every one of them and had a .309 AAA batting average. So when he does regress, I see him still maintaining a good AVG overall.

Despite being a speedster, he does have good power as he hit 22 HR's in his AAA seasons. In the leadoff spot, he likely won't be swinging for the fences too often but it should find a decent amount of HR's regardless.

The White Sox obviously feel comfortable letting De Aza run based on his 12 SB in 54 games last year. That shouldn't change this year unless he gets caught stealing far too often. As a leadoff hitter, he'll get his chance to score a lot of runs (but have his RBI totals limited there). All in all, there are a lot of potentially good things that De Aza could add to your team and he is definitely worth a late-round look.

Sleeper Verdict: Sleeptastic. In Round 20, you can't get much better than De Aza's potential. He certainly could be a major disappointment based on his performance in the Winter Leagues and thus far in Spring Training but you aren't risking a lot based on his ADP at this point. I'd reach to draft De Aza a few rounds earlier to ensure that his potential is on my bench in case he does continue to break out.

2012 Position Analysis & Draft Outlook - Shortstop

2012-03-18T08:00:00.000-04:00

In baseball, middle infielders generally aren't regarded as offensive powerhouses being that they get by on their defense. Thus, it shouldn't come as a surprise that 2B and SS are both rather weak fantasy positions. Coming into 2012, two of the former elite options have been steadily declining (Jimmy Rollins, Derek Jeter) and even Hanley Ramirez has had a slow decent away from fantasy dominance. While youngsters like Starlin Castro have emerged, this position remains more devoid of fantasy talent than ever.

In the chart above, we see the draft trends for SS in 2012. Each SS is represented by a grey dot and the projected draft round going from left to right with the projected roto value going vertically. Troy Tulowitzki sits out in his own world while the rest of the SS struggle to stay relevant for the next 10 rounds or so. Up until Round 12, there are some options that give at least average fantasy value but then the rug gets pulled out and there's another drop in talent.

Looking at the trend above, we don't really get a sense of how that compares to other positions. So, let's make that comparison now!

The red line shows the SS trend and the other positions are shown by the grey lines. Shortstop starts towards at the lower end of value but doesn't drop quite as far as other positions. Even with that fact, it still ends up with lower value than other positions through all rounds in the draft.

This year, there's pretty much Troy Tulowitzki and then everyone else. He delivers great value in Round 1 and then there are a couple of decent options in Round 2 with Hanley and Reyes but they aren't projected to give much more value then the guys drafted over the next few rounds after them (Starlin Castro or Elvis Andrus).

After Round 7, shortstops disappear from draft boards until Round 10 when the next tier of guys start to appear. But, there are a couple of decent options at that point with the ageless Derek Jeter and Alexei Ramirez projected to give good value.

At the tail end of the draft, there aren't many great options but Jhonny Peralta and Yunel Escobar are at least projected to give decent value as possible backups for you.

With this position, if you don't get Tulowitzki in Round 1 then you probably either want one of the guys from the next tier or you should wait on Jeter or Ramirez as very good later round options. There are only 9 shortstops projected to give close to league average value so you have to make sure to end up with one of those because the rest of the options here are extremely weak.

Shortstop Average Draft Position and Projected Value in 12-Team League

Name	ADP Rd	Werth Total
Troy Tulowitzki	1.4	5.4
Hanley Ramirez	2.5	2.5
Jose Reyes	2.6	1.4
Starlin Castro	4.7	1.7
Elvis Andrus	5.4	1
Asdrubal Cabrera	6.5	0.7
Jimmy Rollins	7	0
Derek Jeter	10.2	-0.3
J.J. Hardy	11.4	-2.9
Dee Gordon	11.7	-2.8
Alexei Ramirez	11.7	0.3
Erick Aybar	12.5	-1.8
Emilio Bonifacio	12.8	-2.7
Jhonny Peralta	13.5	-1.3
Stephen Drew	16.6	-3.2
Yunel Escobar	17.3	-2.1
Marco Scutaro	18.5	-3
Cliff Pennington	19.3	-3.9
Ian Desmond	19.6	-2.5
Jed Lowrie	19.8	-7.4
Sean Rodriguez	19.9	-5.6
Zack Cozart	19.9	-5
Alex Gonzalez	20.1	-5.1
Rafael Furcal	20.2	-5
Alexi Casilla	20.7	-6.5
Alcides Escobar	20.8	-3.7
Eduardo Nunez	21.4	-5.2
Yuniesky Betancourt	22.1	-5.8
Ryan Theriot	22.7	-6.2
Jason Bartlett	24.4	-3.5
Miguel Tejada	24.8	-7.7
Tsuyoshi Nishioka	28	-8.6
Clint Barmes	33.9	-6.3
Brendan Ryan	35.3	-6.5

Podcast | Fantasy Baseball Performance Enhancing Discussions, Ep. 2

2012-03-17T17:59:00.000-04:00

In a new feature at this site, there will be an entertaining weekly podcast that is hosted by me and Russ, my co-host who will represent the average inquisitive fantasy player. Close up your spreadsheets and step away from your draft articles as we set out to entertain you and educate you in regards to fantasy baseball strategy.

Episode 2: Keeper League Strategy
In this episode, Russ and I discuss keeper leagues and how to approach them for new and old owners as well as some guys to target in those leagues. In broken news, we discuss injuries to Chris Carpenter, David Wright and Salvador Perez and how Russ can relate to them based on his softball injury. In another baseball quiz from Luke, Russ struggles between choosing whether someone is a world leader or outfielder. The first mailbag question focuses on what tools we bring to the draft and the resource of the week is Scouting Book.

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Classic - The Expected Quality Starts Formula

2012-03-16T16:54:00.000-04:00

This is a post that originally appeared prior to the 2011 baseball season about how Quality Starts were added into the fantasy baseball cheatsheets here.

While it isn't a necessary part of every fantasy league, many points-based leagues and some roto leagues embrace the power of the Quality Start as opposed to the generic Win statistic. Last year, I debuted a formula that David Gassko shared with me to help predict quality starts based on projections. I decided to tinker with it a bit this year and develop an improved version of the Expected Quality Starts (xQS) statistic. Two things have a direct impact on quality starts: earned runs and innings pitched. In the old statistic, only earned runs were accounted for. In the new version, I try to also identify pitchers who have a tendency to pitch deeper into games as well.

As you can see above, the new formula (which is used in the cheatsheets for any league projection system you choose) accounts for average innings per game as well as ERA to give a number of quality starts expected. When looking at last year's season totals, this generated a correlation coefficient of .908 to actual results (improved from .900 from the old system) for anyone with 10 QS or more and an improvement to .882 from .864 for the top 100 finishers in QS.

As we get more projections at our fingertips this preseason, keep checking out the cheatsheets here to take advantage of the xQS statistic and use it to help dominate your league. In the meantime, you can simply use the chart above as a handy guide to have with you to remember who to target for those mysterious quality starts.

"Don't Draft Catchers Early" | Strategy Mythbustin'

2012-03-15T10:42:00.000-04:00

In the fantasy baseball universe, you're in one of two camps: those who try to get one of the top catchers (position scarcity!) or those who wait until the rest of their roster is already filled (all catchers stink!). The myth is that drafting catchers early is simply a bad strategy because the other players that you could draft early instead of a catcher are just too valuable to pass up on. That myth is strengthened by the thought that catchers are more brittle and will be more likely to spend some time on the DL.

To start, let's look at the 2012 projections by ADP and WERTH roto value to see how the value breaks down for the various rounds that catchers are being drafted in:

	Catcher Avg Val	All Others	Diff
Round 4	-0.1	1.7	-1.8
Round 5	-1.2	1.8	-3
Round 6	-3.1	0.7	-3.8
Round 7	-2	0.8	-2.8
Round 8	-2.8	0.6	-3.4
Round 13	-3.8	-1.6	-2.2
Round 14	-4.2	-2	-2.2
Round 16	-4.8	-2.7	-2.1
Round 18	-4.9	-3.2	-1.7
Round 19	-6.1	-3.7	-2.4
Round 20	-6.3	-4.1	-2.2

If the projections hold true then drafting the first two catchers off the board in Round 4 (Carlos Santana or Mike Napoli) could work out just as well as drafting one after Round 13. The tier of catchers that goes from Round 5 to Round 8 isn't projected quite as well compared to the counterparts in the rounds they are being drafted though. From Round 13 to Round 20, the difference between drafting a catcher versus another position stays about the same.

What about the durability of these catchers though? Last year, two of the top four drafted catchers spent most of the year on the DL (Joe Mauer and Buster Posey) which brings the issue to the forefront. Of the 9 catchers that were taken within the earlier rounds last year, Mauer and Posey were the only two that experienced such dramatic drops in games played though. If you look at all players drafted in the first four rounds last year, there were 7 other hitters who experienced significant time lost on the DL (Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Ryan Zimmerman, Shin-Soo Choo, Justin Morneau). So, having injuries hamper your season isn't unique to catchers necessarily.

Furthermore, if you look at the 2010 season, there were four catchers drafted before the 10th round and all four of them had over 500 PA that season. There were 7 hitters from the first four rounds at other positions that had significant DL time though. If we take it all the way back to 2009, there were five catchers drafted by the 10th round with four of the five having over 550 PA. In those two years, it was actually the catchers drafted between Rounds 10 to 15 that missed more time (6 of the 10 getting under 400 PA).

All in all, catcher does have some durability concerns on the whole but the catchers drafted at the top are more durable in most years. If durability is what scares you about the catcher position then drafting a top catcher should be more of a priority instead of waiting for the lesser options later on.

One other big issue with catchers is their reliability. Of the top 200 players last year, six were catchers and only one was drafted early. Mauer and Posey's injuries play a part in that but the position is still subject to some volatility. Brian McCann, Victor Martinez and Mauer have been consistently among the top catchers drafted each year but the rest of the position fluctuates as Geovany Soto, Russell Martin, Ryan Doumit and others have shared time among being early draft picks.

When all is said and done, there is a lot of unpredictability at the catcher position. If you are going to invest in it, you want to invest in someone you trust. Carlos Santana and Mike Napoli seem to be worthy of your trust based on projections but they aren't the usual names you see at the top here. In the 4th and 18th rounds, you could grab Hunter Pence & Kurt Suzuki for nice value or Carlos Santana & Brennan Boesch for better projected value. The upside to the first option is that you have Hunter Pence but the downside is that you'll actually have to start Kurt Suzuki.

For this particular year, you have to go to one extreme or the other by drafting one of the top two or waiting until the tail end. The catchers who are being taken from Round 5 to Round 12 simply do not project well in comparison to who else you could be taking there. The catchers who are being taken at the very top actually do compare somewhat favorably though.

I wouldn't call this fantasy strategy myth completely busted but I would say it is plausible based on what we've seen in past years. For 2012, if you don't have one of the best, you might as well have one of the worst instead; there's no middle ground here.

2012 Overvalued/Undervalued Starting Pitchers

2012-03-14T12:28:00.000-04:00

When scouting out the potential pitchers for your fantasy team, we typically glance at ERA first and foremost to get a sense of whether they pitched well the previous year or not. This is a mistake however as a pitcher's high or low ERA does not tell the full story. Whether a pitcher allows a run or not can be affected by so many things. As touched upon in my How To Evaluate Pitcher ERA article, we have a few tools at our disposal to really determine whether each pitcher's actual ERA was legit or whether luck played a factor in it.

In this article, I'm looking at the biggest differences between a pitcher's 2011 ERA and their xFIP or SIERA, which are two ERA predictor stats. In this first chart below, we have a list of 14 pitchers who seemed to have an ERA that was a lot better than it should have been last year:

Name	ERA	xFIP	E-xF	SIERA	E-SI	K/9	BB/9	BABIP	HR/FB	ADP Rd
Jeremy Hellickson	2.95	4.72	-1.77	4.78	-1.83	5.6	3.4	.223	8.1%	11
Jered Weaver	2.41	3.80	-1.39	3.67	-1.26	7.6	2.1	.250	6.3%	3
Ryan Vogelsong	2.71	3.85	-1.14	3.97	-1.26	7.0	3.1	.280	8.2%	19
Matt Cain	2.88	3.78	-0.90	3.78	-0.90	7.3	2.6	.260	3.7%	5
Ricky Romero	2.92	3.80	-0.88	3.78	-0.86	7.1	3.2	.242	13.2%	8
Doug Fister	2.83	3.61	-0.78	3.67	-0.84	6.1	1.5	.272	5.1%	14
Randy Wolf	3.69	4.46	-0.77	4.49	-0.80	5.7	2.8	.286	8.6%	22
R.A. Dickey	3.28	3.95	-0.67	4.02	-0.74	5.8	2.3	.278	8.3%	20
Kyle Lohse	3.39	4.04	-0.65	4.26	-0.87	5.3	2.0	.269	7.2%	20
Gio Gonzalez	3.12	3.73	-0.61	3.78	-0.66	8.8	4.1	.287	8.9%	9
J. Zimmermann	3.18	3.78	-0.60	3.70	-0.52	6.9	1.7	.291	5.9%	10
Aaron Harang	3.64	4.21	-0.57	4.25	-0.61	6.5	3.1	.302	9.4%	19
Mark Buehrle	3.59	4.14	-0.55	4.38	-0.79	4.8	2.0	.294	8.6%	19
Matt Harrison	3.39	3.85	-0.46	4.09	-0.70	6.1	2.8	.290	7.1%	20

The ERA-xFIP and ERA-SIERA columns show us the amount by which their ERA would have changed if luck wasn't a factor. Jeremy Hellickson is by far the biggest abuser here. He had a mediocre strikeout and walk rate but benefited from a incredibly small BABIP which means he should regress quite a bit this upcoming year. In the 11th round, he's not worth drafting. A couple of other interesting early round names are on the list such as Jered Weaver, Matt Cain and Ricky Romero. Even with regression, they appear to be within a pretty good ERA range under 4.00 but you don't like to see your SP1 and SP2 have these type of red flags. However, it should be noted that Matt Cain has a longstanding habit of having a much higher xFIP than his ERA throughout his career so his appearance on this list doesn't surprise or worry me.

Now, on the other side of the coin, let's look at the pitchers who had an ERA that was overly inflated which should improve in 2012:

Name	ERA	xFIP	E-xF	SIERA	E-SI	K/9	BB/9	BABIP	HR/FB	ADP Rd
Gavin Floyd	4.37	3.73	0.64	3.70	0.67	7.0	2.1	.278	10.2%	20
Max Scherzer	4.43	3.70	0.73	3.63	0.80	8.0	2.6	.314	12.6%	13
Chris Capuano	4.55	3.67	0.88	3.60	0.95	8.1	2.6	.311	12.0%	22
Ubaldo Jimenez	4.68	3.71	0.97	3.74	0.94	8.6	3.7	.314	9.3%	11
Ryan Dempster	4.80	3.70	1.10	3.79	1.01	8.5	3.7	.324	11.2%	18
Ricky Nolasco	4.67	3.55	1.12	3.79	0.88	6.5	1.9	.331	9.5%	20
Brandon Morrow	4.72	3.53	1.19	3.31	1.41	10.2	3.5	.299	10.4%	13
Zack Greinke	3.83	2.56	1.27	2.66	1.17	10.5	2.4	.318	13.6%	4
A.J. Burnett	5.15	3.86	1.29	3.89	1.26	8.2	3.9	.294	17.0%	20
Derek Lowe	5.05	3.65	1.40	3.75	1.30	6.6	3.4	.327	10.2%	31

Zack Greinke had an incredible strikeout and walk rate last year but a fluky HR/FB rate and BABIP caused his ERA to balloon. He's wisely still being taken in the 4th round of drafts but should deliver even better value than that.

As you can see, high BABIP combined with high HR/FB rates were the culprit behind most of these spikes in ERA. Those two stats are mostly out of the pitcher's control and usually will regress closer to league average rates the next season.

So, if we're looking at which starting pitchers to avoid and which to target in 2012, these lists give you a good idea of some potential names for both. It's not a certainty that Jered Weaver will drop to a 3.80 ERA in 2012 but the fact that it's even a possibility is reason enough to maybe grab someone else at that point in a draft... like maybe a Zack Greinke a round later.

2012 Printable Cheatsheet - ADP Positional Tiers

2012-03-13T16:34:00.005-04:00

In your fantasy baseball drafts, not only is it good strategy to look at average draft position but it's also smart to be aware of what the various tiers of players are at each position. The reason that this is helpful is because it lets you foresee upcoming drops in talent so you know when to target players from each position. For instance, you might need to target the last player from a group of 6 catchers if there are much worse groups below that tier. On the other hand, if you want to draft a closer but see that there are 10 available in a group of similarly valued closers then you know you can probably draft another position then come back to get one of those 10 closers in the next round.

One of the printable cheatsheets that I provide here is a chart that shows you the various tiers of players at each position broken up by their average draft round in a 12-team league. While ADP data itself has natural breaks over the course of a few rounds at each position, it doesn't necessarily show us where there are projected drops in talent at any time.

In order to break each positional ADP down into visible tiers, I look at the average WERTH roto values at each position throughout the draft (the values are created using the projections which combine the Marcel, ZiPS, Steamer and Cairo systems). As you can see in this chart below which displays all of that draft trend data, there are noticeable drops in value at various points which I have sectioned off into tiers:

Those particular tiers of values may be very short and then shift into a lesser valued tier but other times the tiers go across many rounds. For example, the last tier at 3B lasts from Round 11 until Round 18 without much change in value. So, if you're looking for a 3B in Round 11, it may be best to just to pass on it and return later since the value won't experience a shift for a long time.

In this next chart, it shows the number of players that have been taken at various points in the draft. By the end of the 10th round, 33 outfielders should be drafted but only 8 shortstops.

Without further ado, you can download the 2012 version of this printable cheatsheet by clicking on the link below.

2012 ADP Positional Tiers

Each tier has the players sorted by their projected ADP so you know who to target first within each group. The cheatsheets do not specify any projected value for a player within a tier but the tiers are designed to give you a good indication of similarly valued player ranges. For instance, Asdrubal Cabrera may be projected to be much worse than Starlin Castro even though they are in the same tier. So, use the tiers as a guide for how to attack your draft but still do your research on who you would want to target within each of these tiers.

If anyone has questions or a need for a modified version of this (14-team league, site-specific ADP data, etc), let me know in the comments.

Cory Luebke - 2012 Fantasy Sleeper Candidate

2012-03-13T07:00:00.000-04:00

There are a couple of fantasy baseball deep sleepers each year that can make the difference for your team. The following 2012 profile of Cory Luebke will analyze the chances that he might be one of the next big sleepers. He was chosen by my sabermetrically-inclined method which is detailed in this introductory post.

ADP as of this posting: 136.9 (Round 12 in 12-team league)

Projected 2012 Role: SD #4 SP

2011 Production: 6-10 W/L, 3.29 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 154 K in 139.6 IP

My 2012 Prediction: 10-10 W/L, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 180 K

Though he was a starting pitcher all throughout his minor league career, Cory Luebke opened last season in the Padres' bullpen but finally cracked the rotation at the end of June after dominating out of the bullpen. As a reliever, he had a 3.23 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.92 K/9 and 3.46 BB/9. Despite the transition from reliever back to starter, those numbers all stayed virtually the same once his workload increased (with the walk rate improving greatly even). His core numbers are phenomenal from 2011. If he has the ability to repeat that low WHIP and high strikeout rate then he will be a premier pitcher in 2012.

In the minors, Luebke's greatest asset was his good command as he commonly had a low walk rate and a decent strikeout rate. Last year, he had a strikeout rate that seems a bit out of the blue as it was over 2 K/9 higher than his usual minor league numbers. It's hard to pinpoint an exact reason for the jump in strikeouts but it may have been partly due to the element of surprise with hitters seeing a rookie pitcher for the first time. For that reason, it's hard to fully endorse Luebke without history supporting his role as a strikeout artist. But, he still does have other positive attributes such as his spacious home park in San Diego which will help limit his run totals.

If Luebke is experiencing a metamorphosis into becoming a new pitcher that strikes out over a batter per inning then he could likely be one of the best pitchers in the league this year. However, without evidence supporting it, I'm tempering my expectations. Thus far, he has struck out 6 over 5 IP in the spring so perhaps he has turned over a new leaf. If you draft him, he's being drafted around the range of a 3rd or 4th fantasy SP so the risk is high to go along with the potentially high reward.

Sleeper Verdict: Sleepy risk. The ceiling is high here but the price is also high. There's not enough of a past history to completely sell me on Luebke and he won't benefit from seeing a lot of hitters for the first time this year. I might roll the dice on him in a few leagues but I need to see more before I'm completely sold.

2012 Position Analysis & Draft Outlook - Second Base

2012-03-12T09:34:00.000-04:00

After looking at the two corner infield positions, it's time to turn our attention to analyzing the middle infield. It wasn't long ago that Second Base was a position that included Chase Utley way at the top and then, well, everybody else way behind him. Thankfully, other players have stepped up at this position as Utley has faded away but it's still a very top-heavy position with three distinctive tiers of players.

Let's take a look at the overall trend for second basemen this year based on 2012 projections and ADP data:

The draftable 2B are those little grey dots and the projected draft round going from left to right with the projected roto value going vertically. There's a couple of top-shelf guys at the front of the draft then a few other good options before the position drops out in about the 6th round and maintains that relatively average production until the end of the draft with some worse options getting added in along the way.

This means nothing though unless we can compare it to the trends at other fantasy positions. Oh wait, we can!

The red line represents 2B and the other positions are those grey lines. While 2B starts in the middle of the pack as far as value, it doesn't experience a huge drop along the way and stays towards the top in value by the end. Other positions, such as 1B, start higher but drop to lower levels than 2B by the end of the draft.

Much the same as other positions, you can find the best value in the first two rounds here with Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler. Things get silent until the 5th round when the next tier of names go off the board with a hidden gem in Brandon Phillips behind among them as he represents similar value to the players from the top tier.

However, after the 5th round is over, there isn't a single name that is projected to deliver above average fantasy value out of this position. However, there are a lot of guys who deliver close to average value like Howie Kendrick in the 8th round and Neil Walker in the 13th round.

In the waning rounds, you can even find some decent fallback options if you are trying to fill a Middle Infielder spot such as Kelly Johnson in the 17th, Aaron Hill in the 19th and a decent sleeper in Jose Altuve in the 19th too.

While the best value can be found in the first 5 rounds, this position maintains decent value from that point on. If you don't get anyone before Brandon Phillips is gone then you'll probably want Phillips or Walker as a fallback. And when it comes to filling a MI position later, don't forget about one of my favorite sleepers in Jason Kipnis. There's surprisingly a lot of similarly valued options from the 12th to the 20th round so you don't really have to reach too hard for anyone in that range if you're still looking for a 2B there.

Second Base Average Draft Position and Projected Value in 12-Team League

Name	ADP Rd	Werth Total
Robinson Cano	1.7	6
Dustin Pedroia	2.3	4.1
Ian Kinsler	2.7	4.4
Dan Uggla	5.2	1.8
Ben Zobrist	5.9	1.6
Brandon Phillips	5.9	3
Chase Utley	6.7	-0.7
Rickie Weeks	7.4	-0.5
Howie Kendrick	8.8	-0.1
Dustin Ackley	12.3	-3.3
Neil Walker	13.1	-0.7
Jemile Weeks	13.2	-3.6
Danny Espinosa	14.9	-2.7
Ryan Roberts	15.1	-3.6
Jason Kipnis	16	-3.6
Kelly Johnson	17	-1.5
Darwin Barney	18.5	-5
Aaron Hill	19.1	-2
Daniel Murphy	19.4	-3.4
Jose Altuve	19.5	-2.8
Sean Rodriguez	19.9	-5.6
Gordon Beckham	20.1	-3.7
Ryan Raburn	20.1	-4
Omar Infante	20.3	-4.6
Alexi Casilla	20.7	-6.5
Mike Carp	21	-4.1
Mike Aviles	21.3	-5.6
Brian Roberts	21.4	-6.7
Derrek Lee	22	-5.2
Jamey Carroll	22.1	-6.1
Anthony Rizzo	22.3	-6
Ryan Theriot	22.7	-6.2
Freddy Sanchez	23	-5.6
Johnny Giavotella	25	-4.2
Maicer Izturis	25.2	-5.4
Tyler Greene	35.4	-8.2