Mr. Metzyzptlk

Tick tick tick

noreply@blogger.com (Dr. Monkey) — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 11:50:00 +0000

As the trade deadline looms, it looks like the Marlins are about to add Manny Ramirez after taking two of three from the good guys down in Miami while Philly beat up on the Nats to retake the lead in the East. I'm certain that some fans' panic buttons are getting smashed right now, but I don't think the Mets are in a bad position. The bullpen didn't look very good down in Florida (I dread watching games in Dolphin Stadium. Something about that place makes me always assume something terrible is about to happen to the Mets), but they've had to shoulder a lot of innings since Brandon Knight's start on Saturday. When your starters aren't making it out of the fifth inning 3 out of 5 games, including one 14 inning disaster, you can expect your relief pitchers to give up a few runs. There's no need to panic and trade away the farm for some overpriced, overrated relief pitcher. While I worry that the pen has too many LOOGYs and ROOGYs right now, the cost of relievers is as high as it's gonna get. I'd look into someone who's considered a middle of the bullpen kind of guy, but Omar has to stay away from closers.

John Maine has a strained rotator cuff. This is very bad news, and I just hope the Mets do the right thing and let him sit out a few starts before this situation becomes Ryan Church version 2.0, and we start worrying about a young player's career. Pedro's coming back, and for better or worse, he can take Maine's spot in the rotation for a few turns. A few off days coming up also means that if they wanted to, the team could sit Maine for two weeks with only two starts coming form the Claudio Vargases or the Nelson Figeroas of the system. This'll be a tight race, and those two starts might mean the difference between making the playoffs or not, but this is a 27 year old pitcher's career at stake. There are Mets rumors involving Jarrod Washburn and, god help us, Livan "1.63 WHIP" Hernandez. Omar has to pass on pitchers of that caliber. Washburn because he'll cost too much for what he's worth and Hernandez because, simply, he's the worst pitcher in the majors.

Supposedly, the Mariners are asking for Jon Niese and another prospect in exchange for Raul Ibanez. Pass. Niese is going to be an important part of this team's rotation from 2010 onward, and Ibanez's good offense is tempered by his -10 FRAA (-55 for his career). There are two below-average left fielders available that hit much better than Ibanez. One has a career 1.051 OPS and wouldn't require any prospects to acquire. The other has a career 0.903 OPS and might be cheaper to trade for than Ibanez. It doesn't appear that many teams are all that interested in Adam Dunn, which could definitely work to the Mets' advantage, and his low batting average probably also lowers his value. If the Mets can get him while keeping Fernando Martinez, Jon Niese and Wilmer Flores, I'd do it in a second. Dunn's a better hitter than Ibanez, he's been better in the field this year (+2 FRAA), and the Mets could shift him to first next year if they resign him. As for Bonds, well, right or wrong that's just not gonna happen.

The Marlins' pending acquisition of Manny Ramirez really doesn't scare me all that much. Manny's had a 7.8 WARP3 this year versus Jeremy Hermida's 4.6, but overall the Marlins have been outscored by their opponents by 31 runs. The trade, if it happens, probably would only take them from a team that should win 77 games to a team that should win 81. Even with the 57 wins they've already banked this year, I'd be surprised if they win 30 more the rest of the way. The Mets' strongest competition will continue to be the Phillies and their +73 run differential.

The key to this deadline for Omar will be to avoid panicking. The Mets are only a half game out of first and have as good a shot, if not better, as the Phillies or Marlins at making the playoffs. The team's farm system, a joke at the beginning of the year, has taken a big step forward this season. If Omar doesn't do something rash today, the franchise has a good chance at becoming a perpetual contender. If he empties out the system again, the team might be looking at a Steve Phillips-esque dead end.

Ollie & Delgado

noreply@blogger.com (Dr. Monkey) — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 11:40:00 +0000

Yesterday, the Mets put themselves into first place (solo edition) off another brilliant performance by Phillie Killer® Oliver Perez, and a clutch hit by the resurgent Carlos Delgado. The two biggest pariahs of the Willie Randolph administration are now the two biggest heroes of the Jerry Manuel campaign. Over the past 28 days, Carlos Delgado is hitting to a .368/.467/.736 tune, while Oliver Perez has a 1.33 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP, and a 39/12 K/BB ratio. Where both seemed headed for the scrap heap a few weeks ago, now both are making their cases for the Mets to consider bringing them back for 2009.

What's gotten into these two? Did Jerry Manuel find the switch on their backs and turn it from "Sux!" to "Rox!"?

Well, Delgado had been hitting into a significant bit of bad luck this year, with his 22% LD rate only resulting in a .280 BABiP, and Oliver Perez's recent surge may have a lot to do with his 3 starts against the Phillies and Yankees, two teams that always have difficulty hitting him (for his career, the Yanks are hitting .199/.293/.315. against him and the Phils are .204/.351/.335). There seems, however, to be something different at play here than simple luck of the draw.

Delgado's luck hasn't really improved all that much- while his LD% has increased to 23.4%, his BABiP is still .282. Perez may have beaten the lefty-susceptible Yanks and Phils, but he's also had starts against both Colorado and Cincinnati, two teams that have hit well against lefties this year. Has Delgado figured out the strikeout bug that plagued him the first half of the year? Has Perez gotten over the mental blocks that normally eat him up when he's pitching against the Colorados and Cinncinatis of the league? How much of their success is due to the Randolph/Peterson firings? Any of it?

I really don't know. I suspect both will continue to have excellent second halves, if not quite this good. The franchise will have to make decisions on whether to try to bring these two back for next season. Both will cost an extravagant amount of money next year. I hope both Ollie and Carlos make Omar's decisions very difficult.

Blarrrgh!

noreply@blogger.com (Dr. Monkey) — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 13:22:00 +0000

It was only one game.

It sure doesn't feel like it, but it was only one game.

That doesn't make me feel much better today after watching the baseball equivalent of the vomit comet, the 2008 New York Mets, invent a new way to lose a game. Give up 6 runs in the top of the 9th? No problem. Go get 'em, Duaner. Smith! What the hell were doing out there? Thank god Jose bailed you out. Pedro, go get this thing back on track. There you go. That's how you do it.

But it was only one game. I just wish my guts would realize that.

The Subtle Art of Passing

noreply@blogger.com (Dr. Monkey) — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 12:49:00 +0000

Back before I was a fat guy, I used to be a pretty good cross country runner. I wasn't naturally the fastest, so I had to work a lot more to achieve the same results as other runners. One thing I had going in my favor, however, was the ability to hold a pace precisely. I'd often lead quarters (400 meters) without a watch and be able to tell how fast I'd ran within a second. On race day, when everyone else would let adrenaline take over at the starting line, I'd let the lead pack take off while I kept my goal-pace, knowing I'd be able to catch back up to them as the race went on. Because of this, I spent most of my races passing other runners as they faded.

There's a lot that goes into passing another runner; perhaps not as much as Zeno suggested, but there is a good amount of psychology at play. When you can see the runner ahead of you, you can establish a sort of "string" between you and him*. While catching up to a runner, I would imagine that I was reeling him in, steadily closing the gap between us. The idea of the "string" was a pretty powerful psychological tool for me and many other runners I'd talk to. It could help push you through a lot of pain to reach a goal. A lot of people's fastest races are spurred on by trying to "reel in" a faster opponent.

*- I'm using male pronouns for simplicity. I have been beaten by many women in mixed-sex races even when I used to run competitively; and if I took to the trail tomorrow, I'm sure that most grandmothers pushing baby-joggers would bury me.

Once I'd caught up to the runner I was chasing, I'd often "rest" just over their shoulder. This accomplishes two things: one, you get to run at a slower pace for a little while, allowing you to catch your breath and two, you get into the other runner's head. It's no fun having someone draft off of you- you can hear their breathing and footsteps as you are probably fading off your pace. You realize the person catching up to you probably has more in the tank than you do. It can throw you off your concentration and it just generally makes the race miserable. If I was feeling like being a real jerk, sometimes I'd even try to make small talk with the other runner to make it seem like I wasn't even starting to get tired.

Since no one can win a race being behind someone, and most of the time there'd be more than one person ahead of me, eventually I'd need to make my move to pass the runner I'd caught up to. This is the reason I'm writing this long, boring entry about my running strategies in a Mets-related blog. The key to passing someone in a race is to blow past them with an extended burst of speed. The idea is to get so far ahead of them so quickly that you snap the string between you and the person you're passing. If you can bury the other runner psychologically, you won't see them later in the race. If you pass someone at a slightly faster pace then they're keeping, it's a lot easier for them to keep up with you (which is why I'd pass teammates differently than opponents).

The Mets have caught up to the Phillies after reeling them in for a month. They've been sitting off their shoulder for about a week. Now the two teams are playing three games head to head, and each has a chance to strike a big psychological blow against the other. Of course, the impact of blowing past someone in a pennant race and in a cross country race is very different. A pennant race is spread over months rather than minutes and it involves dozens of psyches rather than the solo effort of running, but a sweep by either team would have a huge impact on the rest of the season.

Obviously, a three game lead in July is anything but insurmountable, and I have no clue how it would actually impact a clubhouse's attitude, but there's a big-time difference between being a game up on a team and three up on them. If the team in the lead plays .500 ball, a one game lead can disappear in a day, but a three game lead will last at least a week. If the Mets take two of the three, I'd be happy enough to have sole possession of first place; but if they can sweep Philly, a team that is 14-20 since June 9th, they could go a long way towards breaking the string.

Now if only that damn fish would stop making small talk.

The 66 Game Season

noreply@blogger.com (Dr. Monkey) — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 15:05:00 +0000

They did it.

They made it back to the top. They dug themselves a nice hole, but they fought their way back.

David Wright bounced a ball off some fat guy's chest and Delgado looped a game-winner to the opposite gap and the Mets erased the first 96 games of the season.

Now the 66 Game Season begins.

All that Willie Randolph stuff, the series in San Diego, those Wagner blown saves; none of it matters anymore. Spring Training just broke, and the Mets are playing in a two team division this year. If the Phils win 40, the Mets need to win 41. If the Phils win 33, the Mets need to win 34. That's all there is to it.

Let's Go Mets.

A Humble Proposal

noreply@blogger.com (Dr. Monkey) — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 13:18:00 +0000

Three days and no real games. It's funny how a winning streak affects a fan- I, for one, turn into a baseball crazed junkie, desperate to catch my next fix of Pelfrey dominating or Tatis driving in a game winner or even Delgado hitting a high fly over the wall. If you offered me a three day break after the San Diego San Disaster, I couldn't have taken it fast enough. Right now, I feel like Bob Saget in Half Baked; except for baseball, not coke. Okay, maybe not exactly like that, but close to it.

Anyway, with all this time between games I needed to work on my Mets-related fix somehow. What I came up with is a humble proposal for Citi Field, or more specifically, a section of the Citi Field parking lot.

So the Stadium I've grown up with is being torn down for a shiny new ballpark of the future of the past. I've come to grips with that. While there are a couple of reasons to like Shea without needing to put on Met-colored glasses (the sheer capacity of it, for one), the consensus among non-fans is that it's a bit of a dump. I may not agree with them, but there's really no sense in fighting the future at this point. I'm going to go to a few more games at the old purple monster, take lots of pictures, try to get everywhere I've never been, and generally enjoy it while I can.

I don't have much of a problem with them tearing Shea down after it closes, either. As we've seen with Tiger Stadium, leaving an old, dying stadium out to rot is just depressing. So tear it down, I say sadly. Unplug the the life support and allow Shea to be remembered in the shape it is today, rather than lurk over the shoulder of Citi Field, filling up with dust and weeds.

No, I don't have a problem with tearing down the building, but I do have a problem with what's happening to the field itself.

Check out this picture:

As you can see, the field itself is going to be replaced by a section of parking lot. That's it. That's it? The field of my childhood dreams? The field of the hopes of millions of fans? The source of our anxieties and elations? All that magic, all that belief and all that, um, Amazin-ness will be turned into asphalt and paint and oil stains? That's it?

As far as I can estimate from the picture above and this one, the section of parking lot replacing the field will hold about 400 cars, more or less. That's nothing to sneeze at. 400 spots at 15 dollars a piece (or whatever ungodly amount they'll be charging) for 81 games a year is about a half-million dollars worth of income for the team. That's enough to pay one rookie's salary. The location of these spots is also worth noting- they're some of the best spots in the lot.

I don't care. No way that field, the field that Seaver and Tug and Mookie and Doc and Fonzie and, heck, Timo called home should be turned into the land of car fires and fender benders and calling AAA because you left your keys in the ignition.

Here's my idea: turn those 400 parking spots into a picnic area. Let the grass continue to grow green on the place of our memories. Let fans grill dogs and listen to the pre-game on portable radios on Mr. Wilpon's front yard. Let kids play catch on the spots where their parents' and grandparents' heroes played. Put up statues of Ron Swoboda's and Endy Chavez's catches, of Mookie Wilson hustling out his ground ball, of Jesse Orosco kneeling, holding his arms over his head in a victorious 'V'. Plant a tree where robins can nest on the spot the Grand Slam Single came down. Heck, I'd love to see a little statue commemorating a certain cat.

It can be done- a nice, grassy, tree-shaded grove for the fans who loved Shea and their blue and orange clad descendants. There's been plenty of parking available, even during Citi Field's construction; and that was for a stadium with a much larger capacity. The new stadium will hold fewer fans and cost them more money than Shea. Give us something back, Fred.

Give us Shea Park.

NL All Star Pitchers

noreply@blogger.com (Dr. Monkey) — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 12:12:00 +0000

Didn't watch a full minute of the State Farm Home Run Derby brought to you by State Farm last night. For one thing, No Reservations was on (the TV show, not the Catherine Zeta Jones romcom), and I'm just about addicted to Anthony Bourdain's narrative. For another thing, I just couldn't stomach the thought of listening to Berman, Morgan and Phillips for how ever many hours the thing drags on. Also, and most importantly, I just don't care at all about glorified batting practice. Home runs are fun and all, but they're really exciting only in the context of the rest of the game. They change a game in one swing. They're a release from the tension built up from the batter and pitcher's cat and mouse game. They're an exclamation point in a sport of long, thoughtful sentences. They're not all that interesting on their own. The ball goes up, the ball comes down, it's like a driving range with more ads. Run it against a chance to ogle delicious looking Columbian street food, I know what I'm gonna watch every time, and it wasn't brought to me by State Farm.

Anyhoo, lemme finish up my NL All-Star team:

Starters
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/ERA+
Lincecum 14/8.7/41.5/166
Volquez 12/9.1/37.2/195
Haren 13/7.8/37.5/166
Zambrano 14/7.6/36.8/157
Sheets 12/6.4/38.3/150
Hamels 11/8.3/39.4/140
Cook 12/8.0/30.4/129
Webb 11/7.5/28.0/140
Peavy 9/7.5/31.8/157
Santana 9/6.4/31.3/144
Dempster 10/6.0/28.0/137
Hudson 9/6.2/33.9/130
Jurrjens 9/5.2/27.6/136
Lohse 9/4.3/27.7/124

Really tough call for the final spot. The biggest gap between the two stat lines, as I see it, is Ben Sheets' 10% advantage in ERA+. A lot of deserving pitchers aren't gonna make the cut.

Starting Pitcher: Tim Lincecum
Reserve #1: Edison Volquez
Reserve #2: Danny Haren
Reserve #3: Carlos Zambrano
Reserve#4: Ben Sheets

Relievers
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/ERA+
Lidge 8/5.8/18.2/393
Bell 8/5.6/19.1/180
Cordero 8/6.2/14.1/194
Saito 7/6.2/14.8/201
Wood 8/6.0/13.2/148
Kuo* 7/4.5/23.5/260
Burton 7/3.9/15.5/200
Rauch 7/5.8/12.1/149
Gregg 7/6.1/10.6/159
Buchholz 7/4.0/14.3/251
Lyon 7/5.1/11.4/185
Park* 6/4.3/19.9/166
Durbin 6/3.5/19.0/234
McClellan 6/3.2/15.5/143
Madson 4/2.5/15.8/159
*- started some games

Pretty tight at the top here, but Lidge and Bell look about right to me. Also, I haven't actually seen Chan Ho Park using PEDs, but something sure smells funny about his season.

Starting Closer (?): Brad Lidge
Reserve: Heath Bell

And that's it. 25 representatives from each league. I think that's a halfway decent attempt to award selections based on merit. I'm sure there are better methods out there, but in most cases the best players at each position were fairly obvious to me. Now I'm off to punch holes in my ballots, and only a few weeks too late.

AL All-Star Pitchers

noreply@blogger.com (Dr. Monkey) — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 12:46:00 +0000

Awesome weekend for the Amazin's- the pitching is untouchable, Delgado looks like he's going to at least equal last year's performance and the team managed to win three games with virtually no contribution from David Wright at the plate. All they have to do now is win one or two more games than the Phillies the rest of the year.

I had great seats on Sunday- field level down the left field line, and couldn't have asked for a better day. I got to the game early to take advantage of my Diamond Club pass, which I've never been to before, and was thoroughly underwhelmed by the experience. The Club itself is basically a Mets-themed Ground Round with a ridiculously long wait (30 minutes? Really? For chicken fingers?). The Mets' "Hall of Fame" is even worse- the busts are great but I think my parents did a better job displaying my CYO swimming trophies. They couldn't dedicate a wall or anything? I know the building's getting torn down this year, but they've been there for forty years. Shameful. I hope the Wilpons planned on a little something more to put in their great monument to Dodger history. We'll see.

Okay, for the AL pitchers:

Starters
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/ERA+
Lee 13/9.9/41.4/182
Halladay 13/9.1/39.1/151
Duchsherer 11/7.3/38.8/210
Danks 10/8.2/36.2/162
Saunders 12/6.8/25.2/134
Hernandez 10/7.6/25.5/134
Santana 10/6.6/27.9/123
Marcum 9/6.0/29.3/154
Greinke 10/6.5/26.6/123
Lester 9/4.9/26.2/128
Matsuzaka 8/5.7/24.8/163
Lackey 9/4.6/23.5/167
Harden 8/4.3/25.6/164
Galarraga 8/4.6/14.3/127
Pettitte 8/6.2/14.0/101
Guthrie 8/5.4/22.9/120
Sabathia 8/6.5/19.4/110
Floyd 9/4.5/9.5/119

The first two are easy, after that it's a toss-up. I'll go with Joe Saunders' Win Shares, and Justin Duchscherer's and John Danks' VORP and ERA+.

Starting Pitchers
Starter: Cliff Lee
Reserve #1: Roy Halladay
Reserve #2: Justin Duchscherer
Reserve #3: John Danks
Reserve #4: Joe Saunders

Relievers
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/ERA+
Rivera 10/9.8/20.0/384
Soria 9/7.0/17.5/292
Nathan 7/6.4/18.5/348
Rodriguez 7/6.9/13.7/175
Mahay 7/4.0/17.1/233
Papelbon 7/5.3/8.2/178
Jenks 6/4.8/12.2/222
Chamberlain* 6/4.2/18.1/156
Downs 6/3.4/17.3/242
Howell 6/3.3/13.6/153
*- now starting

Not a huge surprise that Mariano Freaking Rivera makes the team. Pretty huge surprise that Kansas City has the best 1-2 bullpen punch in the majors.

Starter (Closer?): Mariano Rivera
Reserve: Joakim Soria

And that'll do it for the AL team. Hopefully I can finish up the NL team before the break is over.

2008 ASG, National League

noreply@blogger.com (Dr. Monkey) — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 12:02:00 +0000

I'll get to the pitchers sometime this weekend, the position players are more fun to do.

Catcher
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Soto 12/8.5/28.4/.307/133
McCann 12/8.2/29.3/.307/138
Martin 11/7.9/28.0/.303/121
Kendall 11/6.1/4.4/.260/83
Doumit 10/5.1/21.3/.331/145

Wow, that's a coin toss. I'm gonna give it to Soto on his sliver-thin edge in WARP3, but that could really go either way. Russ Martin's also not very far behind, and Ryan Doumit would be right there if he had more plate appearances.
Starter: Geovany Soto
Reserve: Brian McCann

First Base
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Berkman 21/11.7/62.3/.366/190
Pujols 15/9.9/48.1/.373/185
Gonzalez 14/7.5/25.1/.309/133
Teixiera 9/7.0/23.1/.301/131
Fielder 11/5.8/18.6/.294/118
Lee 8/7.2/27.1/.301/127
Jackson 10/5.3/20.5/.296/120

Is Lance Berkman even playing the same sport as everyone else? I mean, he's practically lapping Albert freaking Pujols! Yowza.
Starter: Lance Berkman
Reserve: Albert Pujols

Second Base
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Utley 15/12.3/42.4/.330/147
Uggla 16/10.5/38.6/.337/160
Hudson 11/7.2/19.4/.283/111
Phillips 10/6.8/23.4/.291/111
DeRosa 9/8.1/18.1/.293/115

Utley edges Uggla for the best National League East second baseman with a last name that starts with a U award. And the all-star spot.
Starter: Chase Utley
Reserve: Dan Uggla

Third Base
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Jones 14/10.7/53.7/.371/190
Ramirez 13/7.5/25.1/.307/132
Wright 11/8.4/31.3/.318/139
Glaus 11/7.4/13.4/.293/114
Cantu 9/5.6/17.9/.286/115

Man, Larry's having a huge year. Ramirez is gonna edge Wright due to David's slumping season in the field (-3 FRAA, 1.0 fielding Win Share). I hope he can make it in as a DH.
Starter: Chipper Jones
Reserve: Aramis Ramirez

Shortstop
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Ramirez 14/10.5/54.8/.314/154
Reyes 12/9.6/37.8/.303/125
Guzman 14/6.2/24.6/.272/102
Tejada 9/6.6/16.5/.263/97
Hardy 6/7.9/26.8/.301/123
Furcal 9/4.5/26.5/.363/170
Rollins 8/4.7/20.2/.283/97

First Met to make the team! Hanley Ramirez is having an incredible year, and has apparently drastically improved his D. Reyes edges Christian Guzman, despite Guzman's fantastic year defensively. Furcal, off his torrid start, breaks into the list with only 154 PA's.
Starter: Hanley Ramirez
Reserve: Jose Reyes

Centerfield
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
McLouth 18/7.9/34.0/.324/138
Beltran 15/6.9/26.7/.301/122
Rowand 9/6.9/18.9/.288/115
Ankiel 8/5.0/20.2/.300/124
Kemp 9/5.9/14.4/.277/98
Ross 6/6.2/16.7/.296/121

Another Met makes the cut! Pretty shallow field here, at least when compared to the AL. McLouth takes the starting spot, easily, and Beltran continues to have fantastic years under the radar.
Starter: Nate McLouth
Reserve: Carlos Beltran

Right Field
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Nady 12/8.8/25.6/.331/140
Ludwick 12/8.2/25.6/.323/143
Hart 14/6.2/20.3/.296/118
Giles 9/7.0/19.9/.313/128
Winn 11/6.7/14.1/.286/102

That's basically a three way tie. I'm going with Nady because of his lead in WARP3, and Ludwick because of his offensive numbers but this could go any way between the three of em.
Starter: Xavier Nady
Reserve: Ryan Ludwick

Outfield
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Burrell 16/8.9/36.5/.338/155
Holliday 14/7.8/40.3/.338/152
Bay 17/7.4/32.7/.338/143
Braun 14/8.2/25.8/.300/126
Dunn 13/8.0/22.0/.316/133
Lee 13/5.6/28.7/.303/133

Wow, didn't realize how loaded left field is in the NL this year. I'm gonna give the slight edge to Pat Burrell, who apparently plays a better left field than Matt Holliday.
Starter: Pat Burrell
Reserve: Matt Holliday

Designated Hitter
Name VORP/EQA/OPS+
Bay 32.7/.338/143
Wright 31.3/.318/139
Dunn 22.0/.316/133
Gonzalez 25.1/.309/133
Lee 28.7/.303/133
Teixeira 23.1/.301/131
Giles 19.9/.313/128
Lee 27.1/.301/127
Braun 25.8/.300/126
Ankiel 20.2/.300/124

Well, Bay shouldn't start if Holliday doesn't, so the actual starters will be:

Left field
Starter: Pat Burrell
Reserve: Jason Bay

Designated Hitter
Starter: Matt Holliday
Reserve: David Wright

And that's the third Met to make the team, although none of them are starters.

Hopefully I can get to the pitchers on Sunday. Won't be writing anything tomorrow since I'll be at Shea in field box seats I got from a friend at work. Hopefully Pedro will catch whatever bug all the other pitchers have had lately and shut down the Rox.

Enjoy it while it lasts?

noreply@blogger.com (Dr. Monkey) — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 14:46:00 +0000

I'm gonna take a break from my all-star project (woof, that first list took a long time to put together) to comment on the state of the Mets.

After shutting down the Giants for the second straight day, the Mets now sit only a game and a half out of first with a +24 run differential. Baseball Prospectus' postseason odds has them in a virtual dead heat with the Phils to win the division. With John Maine on the mound today against the best move the Mets didn't make and the awful Rockies coming into town, the good guys have a decent chance to be in first place by the All-Star break. There's plenty of reasons to be optimistic about this team.

However, I do not believe that this team, as presently constructed, has any real chance of sustaining success for the rest of the season. The team's recent surge, during which they've gone 7-2, has been fueled largely by surprise contributions from Endy Chavez (.395 OBP over that span), Fernando Tatis (.500 OBP and .833 SLG), and Damion Easley (.410 OBP). These three will not be able to sustain anywhere near this level of production. Perhaps Easley might be able to produce consistently better than Castillo, but the team can't expect him to hit like Uggla or Utley for very long. Chavez is so good defensively (21 FRAR), that he is worth starting as long as he hits at replacement level, but he's a career .312 OBP, .370 SLG hitter. Tatis has raised his season numbers to .288/.324/.414, but clutch performance aside, that's still not nearly enough for a poor defensive corner outfielder. The three have combined for a .435 BABiP over the last 9 games, which will regress to the mean with a vengeance any day now; leaving the team with a very underwhelming lineup.

Don't get me wrong, there have been some very nice developments over the past week and a half- the improvement of the starting pitching, especially Mike Pelfrey, Carlos Delgado's reemergence (.393/.438/.714 over the last week), and a big time series win in Philly that puts the Mets up 7-3 head-to-head for the season; but if this team does not make a move to improve its offense in at least one corner outfield spot they will not be able to sustain this success.

In 2004, the Mets were a half-dozen games out of first when they made the trades for Zambrano and Benson. The trades, one disastrous and one pretty good (thank you, Johnny Maine!), didn't come close to pushing the team over the top because the team wasn't as near to the top as they they looked (not that 6 games at the all-star break is very close). Over the first four months of 2004, the Mets were -3 in run differential. This year, the Mets have a much better differential, but they're +24 only after going +31 in their last 9 games. In the other 82, they've been -7. This temporary offensive surge has put the Mets in a good position to make a playoff run, but they will need another bat to take the division.

That bat probably won't come from within the organization. Ryan Church might be back in a few weeks, but he might miss the rest of the year. (Right now, if you told me he'd miss the rest of this season but he'd be fine the rest of his career, I'd sign up for that on the spot.) Moises Alou will not be healthy for more than a few weeks at a time. The team's prospects (Evans, Carp, Martinez, et al) don't seem ready for the bigs yet, and as much a Val Pascucci fan I am, he's not enough by himself to swing the division New York's way. Angel Pagan has started his rehab games, but I'm not sold that he's much more than a fourth outfielder.

The Mets need to add at least a league average outfielder to stay in this race. Whether that player is Bonds, Lofton, Ibanez, Dunn, Nady or someone else, they need to get him soon. They need to add him before regression grabs hold of this team.

In 2004, the team mistakenly believed it was a contender and made two trade deadline moves that hurt the team in the long run (as much as I love him, Maine < Kazmir) without helping it enough in the short run. In 2008, the Mets are much closer to being a playoff team, but they'll probably only get there if they make a move.

2008 ASG, American Style

noreply@blogger.com (Dr. Monkey) — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 15:15:00 +0000

Okie dokie, I'll get right to it.

Catcher
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Mauer 13/8.9/27.8/.328/138
Suzuki 9/8.9/6.0/.267/96
Navarro 9/7.4/13.9/.300/119
Buck 8/2.6/0.4/.255/85
Pierzynski 6/4.3/13.3/.268/102

Well, Joe Mauer really jumps off the page here. He's got a huge lead in Win Shares and is dominating the offensive stats. Kurt Suzuki is giving up a lot of ground to Dioner Navarro at the plate, but it seems his defense more than makes up the difference. It's mighty close, but I'll give Suzuki the nod.
Starter: Joe Mauer
Reserve: Kurt Suzuki

First Base
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Youkilis 14/8.0/29.5/.317/141
Morneau 15/8.0/26.3/.318/136
Giambi 8/6.1/25.6/.323/148
Cabrera 9/5.5/23.2/.297/126
Pena 8/5.0/6.9/.290/119
Kotchman 10/4.6/12.7/.276/105

Yikes, this is a close one. Youkilis and Morneau are neck and neck here, but I'm giving it to the Greek God of Walks based on his edge in VORP and OPS+.
Starter: Kevin Youkilis
Reserve: Justin Morneau

Second Base
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Kinsler 16/10.8/49.7/.338/153
Roberts 14/9.6/30.8/.310/130
Ellis 11/8.9/10.1/.286/106
Iwamura 10/7.2/8.7/.280/98
Pedroia 9/8.4/25.9/.294/113

Pretty easy to pick em here, but I did not realize just how big a year Kinsler's having. Those are MVP-type numbers.
Starter: Ian Kinsler
Reserve: Brian Roberts

Third Base
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Rodriguez 12/8.4/38.2/.342/166
Longoria 9/10.3/23.8/.323/136
Lowell 9/7.4/19.1/.302/126
Guillen 9/6.6/17.4/.290/116
Blake 10/4.3/13.3/.288/110
Crede 9/5.8/11.7/.282/116
Vazquez 8/4.3/16.0/.310/133
Figgins 9/2.4/4.1/.271/90

No surprise who's getting the start here. A-Rod's a step above Evan Longoria, who's a step above everyone else. Interestingly, this is a really tight group by Win Shares, but not anything else.
Starter: Alex Rodriguez
Reserve: Evan Longoria

Shortstop
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Young 10/8.8/21.7/.284/106
Cabrera 9/7.3/10.9/.255/82
Peralta 6/6.5/14.6/.269/97
Crosby 7/5.3/8.3/.262/92
Jeter 7/3.7/17.0/.271/98

Woof, not a great year for shortstops in the AL. Young is the only one who would warrant consideration in the NL.
Starter: Michael Young
Reserve: Orlando Cabrera

Centerfield
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Upton 14/10.0/23.7/.314/120
Hamilton 15/7.8/34.5/.321/142
Sizemore 14/7.9/38.5/.320/139
Hunter 11/7.0/17.8/.280/109
Suzuki 9/7.5/22.5/.292/101

Centerfield, however, is loaded. Leaving one of those top three out is hard, but I'm gonna go with BJ Upton's big lead in WARP3 and Josh Hamilton's slightly better offense. Grady Sizemore goes back into the pool of available outfielders.
Starter: BJ Upton
Reserve: Josh Hamilton

Right Field
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Markakis 12/9.4/26.9/.314/136
Drew 13/7.7/30.0/.332/151
Dye 9/8.3/25.5/.303/136
Guerrero 11/5.7/21.4/.294/125
Ordonez 11/5.3/21.3/.301/131
Hinske 9/5.6/16.9/.317/134

Hinske's only played 35 games in right this year, and only has about 250 PA so far, so I'm not really considering him. Vlad and Mags both trail the leaders in WARP3, so they're out. JD Drew has been the best offensive player, but it looks like Nick Markakis' D makes up the difference. Jermaine Dye's a close third.
Starter: Nick Markakis
Reserve: JD Drew

Outfield
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Sizemore 14/7.9/38.5/.320/139
Dye 9/8.3/25.5/.303/136
Damon 14/7.0/26.7/.306/130
Ramirez 12/6.1/25.9/.307/129
Ordonez 11/5.3/21.3/.301/131
Quentin 12/6.0/23.2/.301/130
Dejesus 12/5.6/20.0/.301/124
Guerrero 11/5.7/21.4/.294/125

Since Win Shares, WARP3, and VORP are all affected by which position a player fields, I'm going to weigh EQA and OPS+ heavier than for the other positions. Even still, it Sizemore and Dye have been the two best remaining outfielders. However, since neither was one of the top two at their positions, neither should start. So, for the starting left field position, the choice comes down to:
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Drew 13/7.7/30.0/.332/151
Hamilton 15/7.8/34.5/.321/142

I'm giving JD Drew the nod. The revised outfield looks like this:
Centerfield
Starter: BJ Upton
Reserve: Josh Hamilton
Right Field
Starter: Nick Markakis
Reserve: Jermaine Dye
Left Field
Starter: JD Drew
Reserve: Grady Sizemore

Designated Hitter
Name VORP/EQA/OPS+
Bradley 41.0/.357/177
Giambi 25.6/.323/148
Hamilton 34.5/.321/142
Sizemore 38.5/.320/139
Damon 26.7/.306/130
Huff 27.9/.304/131

I got rid of the "overall game" numbers because, well, it's the DH. Milton Bradley saves me from having to revise my outfield again. Also: wow.
Starter: Milton Bradley
Reserve: Jason Giambi

Well, I'm too pooped to tackle the pitchers right now. I'm also watching The Great Johan as he tries not to get shown up by Mike Pelfrey. Let's go Mets.

2008 All Star Game

noreply@blogger.com (Dr. Monkey) — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 13:58:00 +0000

In honor of the upcoming all-star game (it's at Yankee Stadium, if you hadn't heard), and the various crimes against baseball humanity inherent to the selection process, for my inaugural post I'll be selecting my very own all-star roster. How novel!

(For the record, I intend this blog to be Mets-centric eventually, but watching these games lately has been too much like HALO jumping for me to comment rationally on them.)

So, first I'll have to establish my personal criteria for selection.

First off, and many (read: most) people will disagree with me, I think the all-star game should reward the players that have had the best season so far. I understand that this insures that some wacky 3 month wonders will make the team every year, but if you're going to have your selection process end in the middle of the season you should expect this. There are a slew of end-of-the-year awards handed out after the season to reward players who have performed the best over 162 games and the best players over the course of several years will probably be honored by the Hall of Fame. It's very difficult to weigh a player's contribution over a few seasons versus another's contribution to the current year, so to avoid nebulous decisions over whether or not a player is a bigger "star" than another, I'll stick to a merit-based first half performance ranking.

Next, to standardize the rosters, I'll be taking two players from every field position except left field. The way I figure it, any right or center fielder could play left if they needed to; so I'll try to avoid penalizing a player for having too much defensive value to play left by taking, as my left fielders, the two best remaining outfielders, wherever they may play. The two DH selections will simply be the two best remaining hitters, regardless of position. As for the pitchers, I see no reason to select 12 for a single game (especially one featuring a DH). I'll be picking the five best starters and the two best relievers (not necessarily closers). So each roster will have:

2 Catchers
2 First basemen
2 Second basemen
2 Third basemen
2 Shortstops
2 Center fielders
2 Right fielders
2 Outfielders
2 Designated hitters
5 Starting pitchers
2 Relief pitchers

I'll be using mostly Baseball Prospectus' WARP3 and The Hardball Times' Win Shares to evaluate these players, with consideration given to BP's VORP and EQA and Baseball Reference's OPS+ for the hitters and VORP (again), and BR's ERA+ for the pitchers.

Finally, none of this every team gets an all-star crap. My team is merit-based only.

I'm excited. This should be fun and educational. Yippee!