Mr. Stock Pick

What to make of Ancestry.com

2011-09-14T07:09:00.000-07:00

In Depth Analysis for Ancestry.com

When I think of 2011, I think of ancestry.com as being on of those wild rides that if you weren't in it you wish you were.

Ancestry.com Stock Ticker

The Business:

Ancestry.com, Inc. (Ancestry.com) is an online family history resource. As of December 31, 2011, the Company had over 1.4 million paying subscribers worldwide. The foundation of its service is a collection of billions of historical records that the Company has digitized, indexed and put online over the past 14 years. It has developed and acquired systems for digitizing handwritten historical documents, and has relationships with national, state and local government archives, historical societies, religious institutions and private collectors of historical content worldwide. The Company’s subscribers use its online platform and digital historical record collection to research their family histories, build their family trees, collaborate with other subscribers, upload their own records and publish and share their stories.

Pros:
Subscription based companies such as Ancestry.com or even Netflix have been on fire, with growing subscribers and a growing interest for the companies resources and the stocks. Subscriptions are an excellent source of income and the cost to get the subscription becomes cheaper the longer the subscriber.

Cons:

Data posted from Bloomberg and Nasdaq stated the short interest on Ancestry.com rose 17% as of August 31. This resulted in a 10% pullback in the stock bringing it well below the 50-day moving average and well below the 200-day moving average.

This is the year to date chart with the MACD displaying on the lower of the chart. which is a technical buy/sell indicator.

Although earnings are increasing as of the 2nd Qtr results when the stock was trading at over $40 per share. The report showed slowing growth of subscriptions and it has been down since.

What to make of Ancestry.com

Even though the stock is down for $40 since the end of July, I still feel the shares are a little to expensive for my taste. If you are worried the shares will increase dramatically and you would have missed the boat if you do like the company buy some out-of-the-money call options. I have this on my radar for a buy at $26, we will see how the trade plays out.

If you have any suggestions on stock picks you would like to see analysed, post a comment with your pick.

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These are brief explanations if you have any questions or would like additional information please contact me directly through the blog. Leave your email and I will try to respond quickly. These are just opinions of mine and you should not use a specific opinion to make an investment. Investors should be aware of the risk involved in making investments.

Can default rescue the euro and stock prices?

2011-09-13T08:16:00.000-07:00

Its been sometime since I've come to post, so here it is:

If you haven't picked up a newspaper in about 2 years than you wouldn't know that Europe has dominated the headlines. Countries like Greece, Portugal and Ireland all taking ECB bailouts and speculation of a Greek default growing.

What does this mean for you?

If you are not directly invested in Europe you have probably still felt the contagion, and if you are than you have most likely seen losses on your investments. An organized default may save the euro and boost your stock prices as well.

Lets look at Russia's default in 1998 and Argentina in 2002, both countries after default saw essential company stock prices rise +1,000% as stocks have been brutally hammered and value investors saw the value of the companies in the economy.

Default priced in?

The Athens exchange has lost one third of its value in the last several weeks and other exchanges have seen losses all across the board.

A stock like The National Bank of Greece (NBG) which is trading at pennies on the dollar when looking at current assets and lucrative businesses abroad have priced in a default. If default occurs this is a stock to look at as being a value investment. Current market price: $0.78

How can you make money?

Essential companies in these damaged European economies is a great way to pick up some bargain stocks. Companies that the economy simply will no function properly without, banks, telecommunication, utility companies etc. Values of these companies have been wiped away by speculation and fear and reality is these companies are needed to progress further. Imagine waking up without utility companies, banks, cellphones?

"Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful" - Warren Buffet

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2011 a new year a new stock market (All about finding value)

2010-12-29T09:45:00.000-08:00

Potential Top gainers for 2011:

Overall it appears that the overall market will rise 12% in 2011, However this is a stock picker market and you cannot just pick any stock in a sector and hope they all move together. I Have found the companies which shares I find value in when doing some fundamental analysis.

Bank of America Corporation (Public, NYSE:BAC)

Bank of America Corporation is a bank holding company, and a financial holding company. The Company is a financial institution, serving individual consumers, small and middle market businesses, large corporations and governments with a range of banking, investing, asset management and other financial and risk management products and services. Through its banking subsidiaries (the Banks) and various nonbanking subsidiaries throughout the United States and in selected international markets, it provides a range of banking and nonbanking financial services and products through six business segments: Deposits, Global Card Services, Home Loans & Insurance, Global Commercial Banking, Global Banking & Markets, Global Wealth & Investment Management, with the remaining operations recorded in All Other.

Current price: $13.32

Mr.Stock Picks price target for year end 2011: $21

Netflix, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:NFLX)

Netflix, Inc. is a subscription service streaming movies and television episodes over the Internet and sending digital versatile discs (DVDs) by mail to more than 12 million subscribers. The Company’s subscribers can watch unlimited movies and television episodes streamed to their televisions and computers, and can receive DVDs delivered to their homes. The Company offers a variety of subscription plans, with no due dates, no late fees, no shipping fees and no pay-per-view fees. Subscribers can select from a library of titles that can be watched and a range of titles on DVD. On average, approximately two million discs are shipped daily from the Company’s distribution centers across the United States. In September 2010, the Company launched Canadian service for streaming movies and television episodes over Internet.

Current price: $181.71

Mr. Stock Picks price target for year end 2011: $260 (potential stock split)

Trina Solar Limited (ADR) (Public, NYSE:TSL)

Trina Solar Limited (Trina) is an integrated solar-power products manufacturer based in China with a global distribution network covering Europe, North America and Asia. It produces standard monocrystalline photovoltaic (PV) modules ranging from 165 watts (W), to 240 W in power output and multicrystalline PV modules ranging from 215 W to 240 W in power output. Trina sells and markets its products worldwide, including in a number of European countries, such as Germany, Spain and Italy. It sells the products to distributors, wholesalers, power plant developers and operators and PV system integrators, including Bull Solar, Enfinity NV, Gestamp Asetym Solar S.L., Invictus NV and Proysectos Integrales Solares S.L. As of December 31, 2009, Trina had an annual manufacturing capacity of ingots and wafers of approximately 500 MW and cells and modules of approximately 600 MW.

Current price: $22.98

Mr.Stock Picks price target for year end 2011: $ 29

National Bank of Greece (ADR) (Public, NYSE:NBG)

National Bank of Greece S.A. (the Bank) is a Greece-based financial institution. It offers a range of integrated financial services, including corporate and investment banking, retail banking (including mortgage lending), leasing, stock brokerage, asset management and venture capital, insurance, real estate and consulting services. In addition, the Company is involved in various other businesses, including hotel and property management, real estate and information technology (IT) consulting. On June 30, 2009, NBG Luxemburg Holding S.A. and NBG Luxfinance Holding S.A. were merged to NBG Asset Management Luxemburg S.A. On January 18, 2010, the Bank acquired 35% of the share capital of AKTOR FM. On October 16, 2009, United Bulgarian Bank A.D. (UBB) established UBB Factoring E.O.O.D., a wholly owned subsidiary of UBB. On September 15, 2009, the Bank disposed of its investment in Phosphoric Fertilizers Industry S.A.

Current price: $1.69

Mr. Stock Picks price target for year end 2011: $2.75

Banco Santander, S.A. (ADR) (Public, NYSE:STD)

Banco Santander, S.A. (Santander)is a financial group operating principally in Spain, the United Kingdom, Portugal, other European countries, Brazil and other Latin American countries and the United States, offering a range of financial products. It operates in four segments: Continental Europe, United Kingdom, Latin America and Sovereign. Continental Europe segment covers all retail banking business (including Banco Banif, S.A. (Banif), its specialized private bank), wholesale banking and asset management and insurance conducted in Europe, with the exception of the United Kingdom. United Kingdom segment includes retail and wholesale banking, asset management and insurance conducted by the various units and branches of the Company in the United Kingdom. Latin America segment includes the specialized units in Santander Private Banking, as an independent globally managed unit. Santander’s business in New York is also managed in this area.

Current Price: $10.56

Mr.Stock Picks price target for year end 2011: $16

Vodafone Group Plc (ADR) (Public, NASDAQ:VOD)

Vodafone Group Plc (Vodafone) is a mobile communications company operating across the globe providing a range of communications services. It offers a range of products and services, including voice, messaging, data and fixed-line solutions and devices to assist customers in meeting their total communications needs. Vodafone has a significant global presence, with equity interests in over 30 countries and over 40 partner markets worldwide. It operates in three geographic regions: Europe, Africa and Central Europe; Asia Pacific, and the Middle East, and has an investment in Verizon Wireless in the United States. On April 20, 2009, it acquired an additional 15% stake in Vodacom Group Limited (Vodacom). On May 18, 2009, Vodacom became a subsidiary following the termination of the shareholder agreement with Telkom SA Limited, the seller and previous joint venture partner. On June 9, 2009, Vodafone Australia completed its merger with Hutchison 3G Australia to form a 50:50 joint venture.

Current Price: $26.29

Mr.Stock Picks price for year end 2011: $32

Speculative Pick for 2011:

China Recycling Energy Corp. (Public, NASDAQ:CREG)

China Recycling Energy Corporation is engaged in the recycling energy business, providing energy savings and recycling products and services. Its business is primarily conducted through the wholly-owned subsidiary, Sifang Holdings and its wholly-owned subsidiaries, Shanghai TCH and Shanghai TCH’s wholly-subsidiaries, Xi’an TCH Energy Technology Company, Ltd, Xingtai Huaxin Energy Tech Co., Ltd., Xi’an TCH’s 80% owned subsidiary Erdos TCH, and Sifang Holding’s subsidiary, Huahong New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. On April 14, 2009, the Company incorporated a joint venture with Erdos Metallurgy Co., Ltd. to recycle waste heat from Erdos's metal refining plants to generate power and steam.

Careful with a speculative stock it has the potential to rise sharply or drop like a rock. However this is a relatively small company only $115M market cap which is currently profitable and has a great business model. The balance sheet is one of the best I have seen for such a small company.

Current price: $2.99

Mr.Stock Picks target price for year end 2011: either $2 or $8 depending on how the scenario can play out.

Have a good New Year,

Mr.Stock Pick

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These are brief explanations if you have any questions or would like additional information please contact me directly through the blog. Leave your email and I will try to respond quickly. These are just opinions of mine and you should not use a specific opinion to make an investment. Investors should be aware of the risk involved in making investments.

Google (GOOG) WOW’s investors with Q3 earnings!

2010-10-14T14:11:00.000-07:00

Google sees a surge in after-hours pricing after Q3 earnings beat Wall Street estimates. Earning $7.64 a share a 32% increase.

The digital world is still growing substantially. Google has seen revenue growth in all of its sectors this quarter. (Search, display, advertising, mobile)

Can Google act like its normal self?
This year has just been frustrating for investors holding GOOG. News about China and rising expenses has left investors unsure about the future of the company.

Google Instant:
From a revenue standpoint there is little change, from a user standpoint Google Instant is great innovation. Users find themselves making more searches faster and the positive results are great.

Display brings over $2.5 Billion; this does not include text ads. Google believes strongly this is the movement of the future as it is already here and growing.

Mobile brought in $1 Billion to Google. People coming online on mobile are using Google for searches and more queries are coming in from android devices.

Google’s headcount increases 11%

What else is new?
Google hired bond traders to invest cash
Google invested $5 BLN into a wind turbine project
Google is testing robotic cars with the ability to steer itself

What does this mean?

When choosing whether Google is the right investment you need to also use “ninja skills” to guesetimate if Google will find the next big market and continue to grow its core search business.

Mr.Stock Picks take on the stock:

I feel these numbers are huge! It blew all the estimates out of the water as Google usually does. Google is a great play for the Internet and Mobile Tsunami. They are diversifying in many different sectors and growing their current businesses. I don't think that we will see the aggressive growth GOOG has shown in the past but I still believe in the online growth story.

GOOG Price Target - $630

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A winner from the BP oil spill

2010-06-24T13:17:00.000-07:00

Aggressive Growth Stock – First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR)

I mentioned in the last post that I expect the Oil services industry to get hammered due to the BP oil spill. This leaves me to seek opportunities in the renewable energy services sector. Solar, Wind and even Natural Gas (with the endorsement by Obama) may be the power giants of the future.

Future of Oil projections:

-Oil extracting will be very costly, as companies must follow regulation and may be hit with new taxes.
-This will be passed down to consumers making oil costly for the end user.
-The current state of the economy cannot handle another large increase in oil prices.

This leads me to the conclusion that alternative energy has to grow, aggressively. Hybrid batteries are not excluded - Azure Dynamics Corporation (Public, TSE:AZD) is a speculative stock I keep a close eye on. I will do a in depth analysis of this company on a later day.

Price as of this posting:

About FirstSolar:

First Solar originally operated as a Delaware limited liability company from 1999 until 2006. First Solar, Inc. was then incorporated in Delaware on February 22, 2006. First Solar's initial public offering was on November 17, 2006. First Solar's initial public offering was on November 17, 2006. FSLR has the leading technology for Solar Panels today. Clean, Affordable and Sustainable are three words that describe the companies goals to the end consumer. First Solar deals with Utility, Commercial and Residential as for other solar companies I have found to do one or two out of the three. First Solar also is the only Solar company that deal with recycling its own products, Now thats going green! FSLR is currently holding $714.17 Million as of last quarter and holds $162.48 of debt. It is currently trading at a low P/E of 15.46.

Mr.Stock Picks Price Target for FSLR: $180

Year over year earnings starting from right to left (2006 - 2009)

Diluted Normalized EPS: 7.78 4.25 2.03 .06

The growth rate has been great, it may slow but I still see aggressive global growth.

Mr. Stock Picks Conclusion:

Seeing how FSLR’s exposure being significant in Europe in order to buy this stock you must believe in the recovery in Europe. I feel this recovery will surprise everyone and the Euro will once again be strong. The global growth along with problems in the oil service sector are just added reasons for the future of this company. Not to mention the company's financial health is well.

Some of FSLR's Solar Panels:

This stock is put on my buy list, and I am keeping a very close eye on it.

Mr. StockPick

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Is it time to sell BP?

2010-05-31T08:08:00.000-07:00

BP (BP:NYSE) which is known to stand for British Petroleum, may now have the nickname Broken Pipe due to the recent pipe explosion in the gulf of Mexico causing the biggest environmental disaster of all time.

BP failed to insert a trigger switch at the source of the oil pipe which would have in-fact stopped the oil from leaking immediately. This trigger switch was taken out of the regulation while Bush was in office and is a necessary requirement for drilling in most parts in the world. While BP was making record profits they decided they did not want to spend the $500,000 it costs to place the trigger switch at the source which will now cost them a number which some analysts say is unforeseeable.

To sell or not to sell? That is the question.

May 27 - BP (BP:NYSE) was upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer, which said the stock's risk/reward appears more attractive at current levels. $55 price target.

BP is expecting lawsuits from some of the largest fish farmers in the world. BP has also filed a claim with a US court trying to get damages against Transocean, (NYSE:RIG) the company in charge of drilling the oil well.

BP's "top kill" attempt to stop the flow of oil from a ruptured well in the Gulf of Mexico failed. Presidential adviser Carol Browner yesterday dampened expectations that renewed efforts to plug the leak would work, saying oil could leak until August when two relief wells are due to be completed.

The bill for BP, to compensate those who have experienced losses during the spill and for the cost of the cleanup is projected to be approximately $12 BLN says USB.

What does a $12 BLN hit mean for BP?
At the end of Q1 2010 BP has approximately $6.8 BLN in cash and $5.4 BLN in short-term investments bringing free cash flow of around $12.2 BLN. The total assets including long term investments for BP is at approximately $240 BLN which outweighs the liabilities by nearly $100BLN.

If the bill were to be $12BLN it can easily be sustained by BP, while taking a short-term fundamental hit the company can once again thrive in the long-term.

Mr. Stock Picks thoughts on the situation:

This spill is a growing disaster for BP. While the share price has fallen tremendously giving it an attractive 8% yield I feel like I need to stay away from it for now. The Obama administration has a lot of power and I can see a new oil drilling tax coming in place in the near future. Solar and Wind energy anyone? I will do some analysis on some green energy companies as I can see them benefiting most from this environmental crisis.

Video of oil leaking:

Question for you readers to comment on below:

Will BP go Bankrupt?
How big of a liability will this oil spill be?
Are you a buyer or a seller?

Mr. Stock Pick

National Bank of Greece Bets on Turkey to boost growth

2010-05-18T20:53:00.000-07:00

How can you ignore NBG - National Bank of Greece.

These are Bargin bin prices!

Current share price $2.50

Heres a video for you guys:

Mr. Stock Pick

This bank stock can double! - 10/05/2010

2010-05-10T08:40:00.000-07:00

Bulls,

The Greek Gods have been on vacation and they have not done their banking.

Greek God Zeus has his mortgage with the National Bank of Greece – NBG

About The National Bank of Greece:

Founded in 1841 as a commercial bank NBG is the oldest and largest among the Greek banks. It has been listed on the Athens Stock Exchange since the latter's foundation in 1880. Since October 1999, the Bank has been listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

The NBG Group provides a full range of financial products and services that meet the constantly changing needs of corporate customers and private individuals, including investment banking services, brokerage, insurance, asset management, leasing and factoring.

One of the Bank's main strengths is the confidence shown in it by its customers, who hold over 9 million deposit accounts and more than 1.5 million lending accounts with NBG.

Horizontal Analysis:

	2008 2009
Total assets	113,394	101,323
Shareholders' equity	8,453	5,972
Loans and advances to customers (net)	69,134	64,498
Due to customers	71,194	67,657
Total operating income	5,077	4,926
Operating expenses	2,483	2,366
Provisions for loan losses	1,057	520
Net attributable profit	923	1,546
Net interest margin (NIM)	4.09%	4.25%
Return on equity (RoE)	13%	25%
Cost / Income	49%	48%

Finansbank – NBG’s stake in Turkey

“Greece’s biggest bank is relying on Turkey to pull it through an economic crisis at home.”

National Bank has spent over than $5 billion since 2006 to acquire Finansbank.

National Bank of Greece SA plans to open 75 branches from Ankara to Izmir this year to benefit from Turkish economic growth that is forecast to reach 5.2 percent. National Bank earned more last year at its Istanbul-based Finansbank ASunit than it did in Greece.

Its not just in Greece, NBG is diversified:

NBG - earned 425 million Euros in Turkey last year, Good investment? I think so.

Turkey’s banking industry is “much better regulated and supervised, and we’re highly capitalized” relative to Greek lenders

Now that the EU put together nearly a TRILLION $ aid package for Europe I think the National Bank of Greece will soar to the upside.

Mr .Stock Picks short term price target for National Bank of Greece (NBG) - $4.11

This stock should be kept on a radar, as this morning it is currently up: $0.36 to $3.03 per share.

Until the next one,

Mr. Stock Pick

Market Commentary – 07/05/10

2010-05-07T10:23:00.000-07:00

Let me describe part of my day yesterday,

So I was browsing on the computer as my phone is going off. Text messages and Blackberry Messenger pings going off.
Text messages read:

1) Dow down 900 points

2) Armageddon

3) Blood on the streets - Buy Buy Buy

I try and visit Bloomberg but its appears that the site was crashing. I than go to Google finance and WOW.
It felt like the world was falling, I saw the DOW -934 Points and it was jumping within seconds. It appears as though it tanked and was free falling and all of a sudden its stopped on a dime and reversed. The volume was rapidly growing as this was happening.

Big Moves at 2:45:

Accenture Plc

(Public, NYSE:ACN) Went from $40 down to $0.01 than back up to $40

Google Inc.

(Public, NASDAQ:GOOG) Went from $500 down to $460 than back up to $500

The Procter & Gamble Company

(Public, NYSE:PG) Went from $60 down to $39 than back up to $59

Apple Inc.

(Public, NASDAQ:AAPL) Went from $245 down to $200 than back up to $240

What happened here?

"Fat Finger" Trade?

This is currently being investigated but rumor has it that a manager at Citigroup meant to sell $15 million dollars worth of PG but instead sold $15 Billion dollars. This has not confirmed true and there is no evidence at this time but it may not be an impossible human error.
Keyboard: zxcvBnM not too far? What do you think?

Computer Glitch?

Cancelled Trades:

NASDAQ cancelled nearly 300 trades that happened during this wild period. Some speculated that the bizarre trades were caused by technical glitches in the computers that caused trading to slow down causing stock prices to make big moves.

It would be nice if this happened on an up day!

Today's Headlines:

Euro recovers from 14-month lows

Payrolls increase but unemployment rises
Germany approves of Greece's bailout
Oil Hovers at $75

One hot stock to watch over the weekend and next week:

National Bank of Greece (ADR)

(Public, NYSE:NBG) Currently trading at 2.63 is near its 52-week low.

I will not be surprised if at some point next week this stock is up close to 20% on recovery hopes.

This is a speculative stock and investors should know the risk involved in investing.

Other stocks to watch with potential upside for next week:

Bank of America Corporation

(Public, NYSE:BAC)

Google Inc.

(Public, NASDAQ:GOOG)

Kraft Foods Inc.

(Public, NYSE:KFT)

The Coca-Cola Company

(Public, NYSE:KO)

Las Vegas Sands Corp.

(Public, NYSE:LVS)

Apple Inc.

(Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)

General Electric Company

(Public, NYSE:GE)

Have a good weekend,

Mr. Stock Pick

These are brief explanations if you have any questions or would like additional information please contact me directly through the blog. Leave your email and I will try to respond quickly. These are just opinions of mine and you should not use a specific opinion to make an investment. Investors should be aware of the risk involved in making investments.

Pre-Earnings Analysis on Google (GOOG)

2010-04-12T11:07:00.000-07:00

Buy Google Right here, Right now!

Google has:

Mobile

Video

Blogs

Finance

Books

Patents

Product Search

Docs

and oh ya, they have a pretty good search engine too.

Mr. Stock Picks Price Target, $750

To our readers we have indicated a buy for Google at $535/shr

Benchmark analysis

“Analysts at Benchmark maintain their "buy" rating on Google (NASDAQ: GOOG). The target price for GOOG is set to $700.

According to Benchmark, Google is expected to achieve 21% revenue growth on a y/y basis.

Benchmark mentions that “Channel checks on YouTube are positive.

Primarily YouTube, generate about 40% of all domestic online video views.

“While Apple and Google are increasingly competing in mobile, we believe Google is well-positioned with a strong brand, proven digital ad solutions and a huge base of satisfied advertisers,Benchmark adds.”

Earnings excluding items of $6.56 a share for the period ended in March, and $4.93 billion in net revenue are expected to be reported by the firm, that compares to earnings excluding items of $5.16 a share, and $4.1 billion in net revenue in the same period last year.

"New formats recently deployed by Google include images -- a departure from the company's traditional, text-based advertisements. These formats were rolled out during first quarter and may see much success and are a good indication on how Google will proceed with these in the future.

Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Jordan Rohan told clients in a research note that Google should report a "solid" first quarter, thanks in part to the deployment of additional paid advertisements in search results. In addition, Rohan wrote that demand for paid search keywords in the travel and financial industries "has returned to normal seasonal levels" following a decline."

Schachter has a $650 price target for Google shares.

Google preformed terribly after Q4 results and the China issue, but I think this thing is due for a turn around. Right here, Right now! BUY!BUY!BUY!

I will further cover Google as I am putting an analysis together dealing with:

Can Google be the new era Berkshire Hathaway?
$100,000 + per share?

Investors need to check up for that one!

Earnings season coming up with Alcoa today should be interesting.

Mr. Stock Pick

Market Commentary – 04/09/10

2010-04-09T08:33:00.000-07:00

Bloggers,

The Dow continues to flirt with 11,000 as the Dow, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ march forward.

Oil slightly fell to $85/Barrel while Gold is touching $1160/Oz and Natural Gas is back up to above $4/BTU.

The Euro Gained against the US Dollar today. The Canadian dollar fell stretching the Par mark that was hit on Tuesday further away.

Earnings Reports to look out for:
Bank of America – BAC – April 15^th
Google – GOOG – April 15^th
General Electric – GE – April 16th
Apple – AAPL – April 19^th
JC PENNY – JCP – May 13^th
BP plc – BP – April 26^th

Today’s Winners:
Atlas Energy (NASDAQ:ATLS)
Casey’s General Stores (NASDAQ:CASY)
Taseko Mines (TSE:TKO)

Today’s Losers:
Monster WorldWide (NYSE:MWW)
Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ)
Targa Resources Partners (NYSE:NGLS)

I feel Google will have a big move after earnings, I will post an in depth analysis of Google before earnings as it will be one of Google's most important earnings release.

Until the next one,

Mr. Stock Pick

Why CML is on the move! Technical Analysis - MartyMcFly

2010-04-08T11:18:00.000-07:00

Hey market movers,

If you didn't catch our report last week on TSE:CML you may want to look back at it and see why we were right.

TSE:CML Crowflight Minerals Inc. has received a $150 Million offer from Jinchuan Group Ltd. Of China.

Crowflight today announced that they have received a $150 Million take over offer from Jinchuan to acquire all of the common shares of Crowflight at a price of approximately $0.26 per common share. This offer represents a premium of approx. 47.3% to the closing price of CML on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) as of Monday, April 5^th, 2010 and a premium of approx. 56.8% to the 20 day volume weighted average trading price.

Above is the daily chart of CML on the TSX as of the close on April 6^th, 2010, after the Jinchuan offer was announced. As you can see, the stock settled at $0.22 up 30% from the close from the day before (Monday, April 5^th, 2010); which is approximately 18% shy of the $0.26/share that Jinchuan is offering. With the stock hitting a high of $0.25 cents, one cent shy, it shows me that traders were a little cautions of the offer by Jinchuan. Supposedly, the offer is being reviewed by the Special Committee of the Board of Directors and it is subject to Jinchuan being satisfied with the board’s due diligence review of the Company and the receipt of all required government and regulatory approvals.

Good bye for now,

Mr.Stock Pick

In depth Analysis for Crowflight Minerals Inc.

2010-03-30T08:06:00.000-07:00

You home investors have to look at this one,

Yesterday we brought you an in depth analysis of a fast growing Canadian Uranium company called Uranium One and today we focus on Nickel!

Before you consider purchasing this stock please remember it is a speculative stock

Speculative stock is Crowflight Minerals Inc. (TSE:CML).

Crowflight Minerals Inc. is a Canadian company in its development stages that focuses on mining and exploration of Nickel. Crowflight owns the Bucko Lake Nickel Mine in Wabowden, Manitoba and is also focusing on further exploration of the Thompson Nickel Belt (TNB) in Manitoba. The TNB is said to host nickel mineralization along a geological trend that extends for over 250 kilometers. Crowflight also has a large 800 sq km prospective land position centered in two of Canada’s most prolific nickel camps in Manitoba and Sudbury, Ontario.

Crowflights first shipment of concentrate occurred in February 2009 from the Bucko Lake Mine which has a best case production scenario of 1,000 tonnes per day to produce on average 11.1 million pounds of payable nickel per year.

Production targets for 2010 range from 1,000 tonnes per day (tpd) for Q2 2010 increasing to 1,2000tpd in the second half of 2010. Average operating cash costs for 2010 are estimated at US$5.70-5.90/lb (based on a US: CAD exchange rate of 0.94). Average costs are expected to decrease to US$5.15-5.35/lb for second half of 2010 as the mine resumes full production.

Crowflight Minerals Inc. (TSX:CML) is currently trading at approximately 17 cents per share, and has a 52week high of approximately 35 cents per share. With the economy picking up stream, and industrial production demand coming back to reasonable levels we could see interest in this stock as investors pick up small cap companies like Crowflight Minerals. A technical analysis of the stock will shed more light on the short term to medium term expectations for the share price.

What is Nickel? Nickel is a metallic element, making up 0.008% of the Earth’s crust. However, when the deeper of the Earth is included, nickel becomes more abundant, and is the fifth most common element after iron, oxygen, silicon and magnesium.

About 65% of the nickel consumed in the Western World is used to make stainless steel. Another 12% goes into superalloys. The remaining 23% of consumption is divided between alloy steels, rechargeable batteries, catalysts and other chemicals, coinage, foundry products, and plating. The largest consumer of nickel is Japan, which uses 169,600 tonnes per year (2005).

Global consumption of nickel is steadily increasing while inventories have been at historically low levels for the past five years. The forecasted supply from current and new projects is insufficient to meet the forecasted growth in demand. This is expected to be the case until 2010, supporting a strong nickel price.

Stay closely tuned for MartyMcfly's Technical Analysis on CML. With RIM posting earnings on Wednesday, Marty is also doing a write up and a technical Analysis on Research in Motion.

Analysis for Uranium One TSE:UUU (pt.2 Technical)

2010-03-29T13:31:00.000-07:00

You asked and you shall receive,

MartyMcfly a very skilled Canadian Chart Technician, after reading what I had to say about Uranium One he decided to do a Technical Analysis for all you home investors out there.

Uranium One (TSE:UUU) Technical Analysis

Marty's comment: Uranium One (TSE:UUU) has been trading below its 50 day moving average since the correction we saw in the broad market on February 5^th of this year. And at the beginning of March when the broad market was rallying, we saw Uranium One trade below its 200 day moving average. End of March showed an increase in buying with a welcomed bounce the week of March 22nd; however this has been on low volume which is a bearish sign. These reverse candles that we are seeing in the last couple of days could turn out to be nothing as the volume has been extremely light. However, I would definitely keep an eye out on this stock because there could be an entry point coming up if buying volume picks up significantly.

MartyMcfly is known for skilled trading in precious metals, specifically gold. You can view his blog here:

GoldBugz

There you have it folks, you will have to keep a close eye on this stock.

Until the next one,

Mr. Stock Pick

In depth analysis for Uranium One TSE:UUU

2010-03-27T13:40:00.000-07:00

What’s new with the stock geeks out there?

Before you consider purchasing this stock please remember it is a speculative stock

Speculative stock is Uranium One (TSE:UUU).

This is a Canadian stock that deals with the mining and production of Uranium. Exploration properties for Uranium One are in Kazakhstan, the United States, Australia and Canada. The company also owns stakes in other exploration developments.

What is Uranium? Uranium is a very dense, radioactive metallic element, naturally occurring in most rocks, soil, and even in the ocean. Uranium is mined for many different purposes and has been used to produce energy for more than forty years. Eg. Nuclear Power Plants.

TSE:UUU is currently trading at $2.64 CAD/Share and I think it goes higher from this point. Uranium’s spot price is at $42.35/lbs which has been on a serious down trend for about two years. Sudden demand looks like it will spark, probably bringing prices up to $50 per pound by Q3 2010. I see UUU being undervalued at these levels as they produce 2.9% of the worlds Uranium with that number expected to grow.

If this isnt a sign of demand sparking I dont know what is:

Majority of these future plants are being placed in China, Russia and India

which all have great growth prospects.

Growth production forcasts look promising:

With higher demand and higher prices, doubling production from 2009 will result in

a great profit turn around for the company.

Final word:

Uranium One is an undervalued company that was hit by the financial crisis in 2007. This stock may be one of the most talked about as a comeback story.

Mr Stock Picks short term Price target for TSE:UUU $3.05

I hope everyone is enjoying the rally, especially if you have bought BAC with buy signal at $14.30 the stock is trading nearly $4 higher since than.

Enjoy your weekend,

Mr. Stock Pick

Favorite Income Stocks of 2010

2010-03-15T15:18:00.000-07:00

Hey Bloggers,

As you guys know by now, Mr Stock Pick loves Dividends.

Dividends are a great way to earn income in Bull and Bear markets, as the stock drops the yield becomes higher and attracts buyers. This results in less downward movements in the quality dividend payers.

So I have put a list of my top 10 favorite dividend payers & growers for 2010.
(Yields and Dividends are to Mondays closing price and are subject to change and are in no particular order)

TOP 10 DIVIDEND STOCKS OF 2010:

10.

Eli Lilly & Co.

(NYSE:LLY) Dividend / Yield = 0.49 / 5.44

Progress Energy, Inc.

(NYSE:PGN) Dividend / Yield = 0.62 / 6.36

General Electric Company

(NYSE:GE) Dividend / Yield = 0.10/2.31

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.

(NYSE:WMT) Dividend / Yield = 0.30 / 2.18

Penn West Energy Trust (USA)(CAD)

(NYSE:PWE / TSE: PWT.UN) Dividend / Yield = 0.15 / 8.39

The Coca-Cola Company

(NYSE:KO) Dividend / Yield = 0.44 / 3.28

McDonald's Corporation

(NYSE:MCD) Dividend / Yield = 0.55 / 3.34

Verizon Communications Inc.

(NYSE:VZ) Dividend / Yield = 0.47 / 6.36

AT& T Inc.

(NYSE:T) Dividend / Yield = 0.42 / 6.52

Kraft Foods Inc.

(NYSE:KFT) Dividend / Yield = 0.29 / 3.92

I plan to have a separate portfolio with just dividend paying stocks and as soon as i
compose this portfolio I will keep you up to date on any investments made and changes
made to the portfolio.

Markets look like they dont want to move up further at the moment as investors are
soaking up some bad news.I dont think this will continue. I am bullish for the rest of
the year.

Dividends are a great flow of income and is also defensive. each portfolio should have
atleast one of these dividend stocks to bring in some cashflow.

Good bye for now,

Mr. Stock Pick

The Great FireWall of China

2010-03-15T14:35:00.000-07:00

Google's battles with China looks like it may be coming to an end.

It looks likely that Google is pulling out of China, GOOG down 17 points today on the news. With reports that have been released it looks like negotiations with China for Google may not be working in their favor.

Google plans to stop censoring in China and threatened to pull out of the country if China does not agree. The revenues brought in from Google.cn is a very small portion of Googles business as Baidu has 60% market share in China.

I found a site for the readers that can see the affect of censoring in china.

Just visit: http://www.greatfirewallofchina.org/ and find out if your favorite site is censored.

This is the Great FireWall of China.

Is this a smart choice for Google to exit a 1.3 Billion population market? Why? Why not?

A Speculative Stock you should be watching!

2010-02-23T19:43:00.000-08:00

Hey Bloggers,

Mr. Stock Pick is watching a speculative stock with huge upside potential, and I thought that I would share them with you. If you are unsure what a speculative stock is, check out my blog posted last week for a definition.

Speculative stock #1: CryptoLogic - NASDAQ:CRYP (US$) or TSE:CRY (CA$)

CryptoLogi c is a software designer in the internet gaming market. They distribute the software to various online gaming companies, while retaining ownership(collecting royalties). I love the business model, pay once to build software and keep getting paid later. Cryptologic reports its Q4 2009 earnings report on March 2 2010. This is a key date for this company as they are in the middle of a balance sheet change and are cutting costs left, right and center. They have been in the red since the recession has hit as the industry is taking a beating, but if this company so happens to declare a profit on the March 2 date we can see this stock jump to the moon. The losses have been narrowing since Q1 2009 and I expect the same for 2010, if not narrow, to turn a profit. The company has 0 debt and pays a 0.01 dividend, which shows they are confident about their cash position.

CryptoLogic has a unique business model and management that I believe will make some right choices and bring this company back to profitability. Cryptologic's software is based for online casinos such as BetClik and Bet24. The revenue that these companies bring in from people playing their slot machines and other games are split up and given to Cryptologic.

Ladies and Gentleman place your bets!

ABC's of Investing in Stocks

2010-02-19T06:34:00.000-08:00

Hey people,

At your request this blog is for those of you who are looking to make your first investment in stocks and for those who are invested but do not understand some of the basics that can make you more money in the future.

First you should find out:

What is your investment objective?

Safety - Your objective here is to avoid loss of original capital invested

2. Income - Your objective here is to have a steady flow of interest or dividend income

3. Growth - Your objective here is to find common stocks with future long term growth

Note: Establish your investment goals and determine how much risk you are willing to take before you do anything.

When looking at common stocks to purchase, you should be aware of the different types of common stocks.

Types of Common Stock

Blue Chip Stocks - Long-term and stable earnings with dividends. Also known as a high Quality Company.

2. Income Stocks - Consistent dividend yields. Preferred shares should also be looked at for income.

3. Growth Stocks - High operating margins and an excellent inflow of cash to pay debt.

4. Speculative Stocks - Shares are extremely risky, potential to rise or drop significantly

5. Cyclical Stocks - These stocks tend to move with the economy, eg. Coca cola, Mcdonalds

What are preferred shares?

Preferred shares are shares that have no ownership in the company, Therefore you cannot vote on certain things that common shareholders do. You are, however paid a rate of return (Yield) which is a share of the companies earnings. Preferred gets paid before Common, but the appreciation for Common tends to be greater.

Markets Terminology 101:

Bull Market - Stock prices are going up

Bear Market - Stock prices are going down

Price Earnings Ratio or PE - good way to find the valuation of the company. During the dot com bubble stocks were trading at 30 times earnings.

Yield - The percentage of how much money the company pays out to shareholders in dividends.
Mr. stock pick likes big dividend yeilds.

Bid - The highest price anyone is willing to pay for a stock
Ask -The lowest price anyone will accept to sell a stock

I hope this helps, if you are still unsure of what something may mean or if you have a question about something I didn't cover, please feel free to email me directly through the blog.

In the mean time I hope you are making money this week!(Even though I am long-term, money now means more money later)

I recommended Bank of America (BAC) on Tuesday at $14.70 and it is currently trading at $16

GOOG at $535 and it is currently trading at $542. Not a bad week I might say, for the bulls.

Have a good weekend,

Mr. Stock Pick

Detailed Portfolio Holdings

2010-02-14T14:56:00.000-08:00

Hello bulls and bears,

On Friday I mentioned that on my next blog post I would talk about my stock holdings and why I am holding them in my portfolio. This will be similar to my future stock pick posts from Mr. Stock Pick. You will receive the pro's and con's, risk ratings, detailed analysis and future price projections.

Now lets get to my holdings,

First is my favorite stock for 2010 and that is Bank of America (BAC). With GDP numbers on the rise, foreclosures and unemployment improving this stock can be the best recovery play in the market today. Bank of America was lead by Ken Lewis who has taken tremendous risks making the powerful bank fall to its knees to the fed in 2008/2009. Ken Lewis to some is known as a hero who saved the financial world from collapse with his acquisition of Merrill Lynch, to others he is known as a risk taker who deteriorated long term share holder value. This acquisition made Bank of America the largest US bank by assets. With Bank of Americas strong business model and its new businesses Merrill Lynch and Countrywide it can have a positive bounce with a recovered market.

I believe in the new CEO Brian Moynihan, he has mentioned the business does not need to be larger but to execute its current businesses and turn them profitable. With the right man in charge this company can be a money making machine. Earnings per share (EPS) was $0.45 in the past twelve months with 2010 EPS estimates at $0.85 that is nearly a 100% increase. I see Bank of America outperforming this year as they now are not under the helm of the government as they have repaid their 45 Billion of tarp funds. BAC is rated 7/10 for a risk rating as there are short term bumps along the road to recovery.

Mr. Stock Picks price target for BAC by year end 2010 = $25

My second holding in my portfolio is Google (GOOG). Google is the most visited website of all time. Their Q4 earnings showed that they were cutting costs and earning more profits consistently, they are spending less to make more. I believe the search business has room to grow but that is just Google's main business. Google is a diversified tech company with mobile phones, Chrome, Gmail, YouTube and now Google Buzz. Google has also mentioned launching a fiber to home based internet service which will allow download speeds of 1GB/s for 50,000 up to 500,000 Americans. I am also a believer of cloud computing which Google has a huge advantage on.

Google is down to $535 per share from $629.51 just last month. This move down was the result of Google threatening to pull out of China due to censorship laws. Currently Google is still operating in China so negotiating a deal must not be going too bad. Earnings Per Share (EPS) for the past twelve months was $20.41 and estimated EPS for 2010 is $24.29. Google is currently trading at 26.3 times earnings and that is the cheapest it has been in a long time. I think if you want a piece of this Internet giant I think now is the time to buy. Google gets an 8/10 for risk rating due to the fact that competition like Apple and Microsoft are strong companies with great innovation and they have a chance to steal market share from Google.

Mr. Stock Picks price target for GOOG by year end 2010 = $750

Visit the blog frequently for financial updates and information to help you make money!

Until next time,

Mr. Stock Pick

Brief Introduction & My Portfolio

2010-02-12T06:27:00.000-08:00

Hello everyone,

My name is Brian, I am also known as "Brian Trouble" or "Ron Ron". I have an interest in investing which comes from my background in a specialized course for banking and wealth management at my local college. I am putting together this blog to educate others about my form of investing. I believe in long term investments(95% of the time), Short term trades do arise and for that reason you always need some cash on the sidelines. I have met so many people that have 100% of their money into equities, its unbelievable. My goal is to educate individuals how to successfully invest in money markets. This education is extremely important and will result in greater returns and picking winning stocks. As I am a believer in the long-term for equities I will also cover commodities and currencies for you day traders out there.

The weekly Blogs will consist of:

Market updates /outlooks
Detailed Stock Picks
Tips for success (starting from the basics)
My personal portfolio and updates
+ More - so visit frequently

Portfolio:

Below I have my current stock portfolio and how it weighs in the account. I am for the US recovery although others don' t see the big picture, it will happen. I am not diversified by holding a stock in every sector, but I feel comfortable with having 10% of my portfolio in cash. The number was recently higher but I have picked up more Google on weakness. I need to stress how important it is to have cash in your account. Picking up quality stocks on dips due to uncertainty and market confusion is a great way to get a deal on companies for the long term.

Stock Symbol & Name % of my portfolio

BAC(Bank of America) - 55 %

GOOG(Google) - 35 %

CASH(money) - 10 %

I will talk specifically about the 2 stocks that are being held in my portfolio in the next blog. In the mean time the markets are down about 7% from the year high, I think now is the time to implement some of that cash and pick some winners.

Good bye for now,

Mr. Stock Pick

Mr. Stock Pick

What to make of Ancestry.com

Can default rescue the euro and stock prices?

2011 a new year a new stock market (All about finding value)

Speculative Pick for 2011: China Recycling Energy Corp. (Public, NASDAQ:CREG)

Google (GOOG) WOW’s investors with Q3 earnings!

A winner from the BP oil spill

This leads me to the conclusion that alternative energy has to grow, aggressively. Hybrid batteries are not excluded - Azure Dynamics Corporation (Public, TSE:AZD) is a speculative stock I keep a close eye on. I will do a in depth analysis of this company on a later day.

Price as of this posting:

About FirstSolar:

Is it time to sell BP?

National Bank of Greece Bets on Turkey to boost growth

This bank stock can double! - 10/05/2010

Market Commentary – 07/05/10

Accenture Plc

Google Inc.

The Procter & Gamble Company

Apple Inc.

National Bank of Greece (ADR)

Bank of America Corporation

Google Inc.

Kraft Foods Inc.

The Coca-Cola Company

Las Vegas Sands Corp.

Apple Inc.

General Electric Company

Pre-Earnings Analysis on Google (GOOG)

Market Commentary – 04/09/10

Why CML is on the move! Technical Analysis - MartyMcFly

In depth Analysis for Crowflight Minerals Inc.

Analysis for Uranium One TSE:UUU (pt.2 Technical)

In depth analysis for Uranium One TSE:UUU

Favorite Income Stocks of 2010

Eli Lilly & Co.

Progress Energy, Inc.

AT& T Inc.

Kraft Foods Inc.

The Great FireWall of China

A Speculative Stock you should be watching!

ABC's of Investing in Stocks

Detailed Portfolio Holdings

Brief Introduction & My Portfolio

Speculative Pick for 2011:

China Recycling Energy Corp. (Public, NASDAQ:CREG)