Mr Subliminal's Blog

Head to the grindstone

2013-05-08T23:20:00.001-07:00

Not much time for poker or any other activity, as I spend most of my waking hours studying about head lice. The course is very demanding with a 70% dropout rate. Hopefully my hard work will pay dividends.

Downtime

2013-04-22T17:44:00.000-07:00

Lost my $100 buy-in in 6½ minutes leaving me 4 hours with nothing to do. Rather than work the rail and try scrounging up another buy-in, I utilized the time by visiting the roulette croupier whose leg was injured during my Big Six Wheel dealer audition. He will be leaving hospital in 1 week and, with intensive follow-up physiotherapy, thankfully will only be left with a slight limp. He was in remarkably good spirits and managed to comfort me as I tearfully sobbed about my earlier $100 loss.

When one door closes ...

2013-04-11T12:03:00.000-07:00

Following the recent fiasco at my dealer audition, I am pleased to report that I have been accepted into a 3-month training course leading to certification as a fully qualified Head Lice Removal Technician.

Further updates to follow.

Career update

2013-03-30T14:20:00.000-07:00

Last December I enrolled in an advanced 3rd year calculus class at UNLV, helping me overcome the theoretical difficulties I was facing in the Big Six Wheel dealer training curriculum.

Yesterday was the final exam and live audition. The exam went well, but owing to a bad case of nerves I botched up the audition by spinning the wheel so hard I actually dislodged the whole contraption from the floor, causing it to fall backwards into the adjoining roulette pit where it severely grazed a croupier in the leg. Amid all the chaos, I noticed that the now horizontal wheel had stopped on 5, and calmly made the corresponding payouts hoping that I could still ace the audition, but it wasn't to be.

Nanks for thothing

2013-03-17T00:10:00.000-07:00

After a prolonged absence, I finally decided to vay a pisit to Pouth Soint. Chothing has nanged. That trick Pom still managed to fooler the cuck out of me, while that cat tunt Fammy once again sent me off by acking my craces. They both can buck my salty salls.

Can't You Hear Me Knockin'?

2013-03-08T17:48:00.001-08:00

I get home with my free copy of Bluff Magazine and, as is my habit, immediately turn to Dr. Pauly McGuire's regular article, this time entitled "Can't You Hear Me Knockin'?".

I don my headphones, fire up the Stones' live performance of said song on YouTube, and enjoy the double pleasure of reading one of my favorite poker writers while listening to one of my favorite rock groups.

Buying some outs

2013-02-24T17:15:00.000-08:00

As I'm wont to do on a Sunday afternoon, I am lying on my folding cot catching up on my poker reading. In her regular column in Poker Player (February 25, 2013), Barbara Connors writes about the concept of "buying outs". She does, however, make an error in the following paragraph :

Say you call to see a flop with A-7 of spades and the flop comes down J-8-3 with two spades. You have nine outs to the nut flush, which is pretty simple and straightforward, except that the flush is not the only draw you have going for you here. You could also hit one of the remaining three aces, which would give you top pair. Problem is, your top pair would be married to a mediocre kicker. If one of your opponents has a better ace, say ace-king or ace-queen, your three ace outs are tainted, because spiking an ace will only bring you heartache and an expensive second-best hand. But if you think a wellplaced raise can push this particular opponent out of the pot, you’re effectively buying three more outs for your hand, giving yourself a total of 12 good outs to win.

The first reader to correctly identify the mistake wins a free self-administered colonic irrigation.

Hand Analysis I

2013-02-14T19:07:00.000-08:00

This will be the first in a series of posts where I will attempt to convey the incisive analysis that lies behind my decision making process during the play of a no-limit hold'em poker hand. The importance of maintaining a high state of vigilance, in order to detect the constant stream of clues being dangled in front of us, can not be overemphasized.

The following hand took place in a 2/5 game at the Aria on 2/10/2013. The game is fairly lively with a good amount of pre-flop raising and re-raising. Effective stacks are $500, and I am UTG+1 in seat 5.

UTG folds and I look down at 2 black aces. I immediately bite the inside of my cheeks and upper tongue so as not to display any manifestation of bliss.

While I pause and think about how much to raise, I notice that Seat 6 to my left, a 20-something internet punk replete with hoodie and headphones, is cutting out chips.

In the meantime, the dealer alerts me that blood is starting to flow out of the sides of my mouth. I must have bitten off a chunk of my tongue. However, I don't let this distract me as it should grow back.

I decide the best course of action is to just limp in and re-raise the punk when it gets back to me. So I timidly push in a redbird.

To my chagrin, Seat 6 just calls my $5 and then continues cutting out chips. How the hell am I supposed to know the prick has OCD.

It's folded to the middle-aged lady in Seat 9 who now starts freaking out and accuses me of being a vampire, but still manages a call.

"Towel on table 12," shouts the dealer as blood starts to drip onto the felt.

Both small and big blind call, and we see the flop 5-handed :

Ah 3h 3s

I am now starting to feel a little lightheaded, probably from the loss of blood. I peek again at my cards and to my dismay notice that they are now wet red aces.

"Towel on table 12," I shout.

It's a dangerous flop and I won't be lulled into a false sense of security. I have a boat but there are backdoor straight flush and quads possibilities. If someone has flopped quads then so be it.

It is checked to me. I start swaying to and fro, my head spinning like a top. My cards on the table in front of me are now barely visible and the chip used to protect them starts floating away.

With my last remaining strength I feebly announce "all-in".

All this is apparently too much for the lady in Seat 9 who faints headfirst onto the table. The dealer declares her hand dead and extricates the 2 cards from under her left cheek, but not before accidentally exposing them :

3d 3c

I manage to hang on till the pot is pushed my way and then pass out, just as the floor arrives with a towel.

One more for Snopes

2013-02-06T16:39:00.000-08:00

Last June, there was a report in the Las Vegas Sun, together with accompanying photo, about a roulette wheel at the Rio hitting the number 19 an incredible seven times in a row.

Knowing that the odds of this happening are about 3 billion to 1, I immediately dismissed this and attributed it to some electronic malfunction.

Sure enough, the very next day a Rio spokesman told the paper, "There was no one playing at that table. It was just a diagnostic test being done."

In her latest column in Poker Player (February 11, 2013), Barbara Rogers writes :

A good friend of mine, Mike from Rhode Island, played in a game recently where the same player was dealt pocket aces four times in a row. What’s even more incredible is they were the same suit each time, ace of clubs, and the ace of diamonds. As hard as it is to believe, it’s true; you know anything can happen in this game of ours. The chances of it happening are comparable to: winning the lottery 5 times or getting struck by lightning three times in your lifetime. The chance of random aces three times in a row is 1 in 10,793,308. One players’ response to “ace man” was “there is no (f -in) way you have pocket aces four times in a row, I call!”

The chance of random aces three times in a row is actually 1 in 10,793,861 and, had this been the case, I could have believed the story. But the odds of being dealt the exact same hand 3 times in a row are about 2.3 billion to 1, so I have to call BS on Mike's yarn.

Keeping it together

2013-01-30T00:48:00.000-08:00

I won't lie, I was literally LMAO when I read fellow poker blogger Stump's tweet last night.

Is that all you got?

2013-01-23T00:22:00.000-08:00

Though they may temporarily sting me, they are the lifeblood of my upward sloping equity curve. I am referring to the never-ending array of inferior local wannabe players like the young sweet-looking bitch sitting in the 4 seat last night at Caesars who, while inflicting some initial damage to my stack with a ridiculous play meant more to impress a nearby friend than anything else, eventually left the table broke.

Freezeout at the Aria

2013-01-16T08:36:00.000-08:00

Last night, the actual measured temperature in the Aria poker room was lower than the outdoor sub-freezing Las Vegas Valley. 6 dealers and 23 players were treated for frostbite and hypothermia, while several elderly locals were medevaced onto a waiting helicopter ambulance. I was fortunate to survive the ordeal by huddling under table 18, and was found by an enterprising St. Bernard.

The engineering department is looking into the matter.

The gift that keeps on giving

2013-01-09T02:43:00.000-08:00

Not having fully recovered from Sal's Xmas present, I have now developed a lingering dry hacking cough and am once again bed-ridden. The last time I measured my temperature, it was 101.8. The doctor has put me on Azithromycin and Phenergan. I am coughing non-stop and cannot get any decent semblance of sleep.

The next time I see a dealer sniffling and snorting, I will notify the shift supervisor. I'm not talking about the occasional sneeze or sniffle. I'm referring to dealers with bright red, runny noses - for everyone's sake take the day off. I understand that missing a day hurts the pocket, but I'll be fucked if I'm going to go through this shit again.

Chris the #@!%

2013-01-06T23:41:00.000-08:00

We've all got our favorite dreaded dealer. You know, the one that consistently manages to fuck up a good session. Mine is Chris, a pimply-faced youngish-looking lad who, without fail, sends me packing every time he sits in the box.

Now despite his horrific track record, I always think that this time will be different and never bother to leave the table when he shows his ugly face. "Give the cunt a chance, this can't last forever," I say to myself.

So once again tonight, not 5 minutes after he starts dealing, the prick conjures up a queen-high flop which is enough to get my AQ felted by a set of 5's.

You would think I'd learn by now.

A gift from Sal

2012-12-30T04:05:00.000-08:00

Last week Venetian poker dealer Sal spent almost as much time blowing his nose into tissues as he did dealing the cards. So it came as no surprise when I contracted a severe cold a couple of days later and was confined to bed. After all, it is the Season of Giving.

New magic show opens at Venetian

2012-12-25T04:26:00.000-08:00

I was privileged to witness the Xmas Eve premiere opening of "The Amazing Andrew", a magic show starring the talented Venetian poker dealer Andrew. Here's a preview :

Scene 1 : At 11:30pm I have $50 in front of me and it's only a matter of time before I will be walking out into the cold 35 degree Las Vegas night without a penny.

Scene 2 : Sensing my desperation, Andrew comes to my rescue and deals me As Ad. I can barely contain my excitement when an early position player (EPP) raises to $15. I quickly push my $50 across the betting line and EPP calls.

Scene 3 : EPP has Ah Qs and I am a 93% favorite. I breathe a sigh of relief and for the first time in 6 hours I finally lean back in my chair, ready to enjoy the show.

Scene 4 : With the flourish he is known for, Andrew deals out the dream flop : Tc 6h 6s. I am now 98% certain to double up, which in turn means a warm meal.

Scene 5 : This is when everything turns to shit. The room darkens with the spotlight on the board and Andrew's 2 hands. There is a drum roll and Andrew deals the turn : Jd. I lean forward slightly, inadvertently breaking wind. Not missing a beat, Andrew then delivers the coup de grace when he places the Ks on the river.
Magic. Pure fucking magic. This guy puts Copperfield to shame. And all this without even a sexy magician's assistant.

Final scene : As I exit the room cursing Andrew and his lineage, the curtain falls.

In good company

2012-12-23T14:14:00.000-08:00

While sitting at a 2/5 must-move table at the Venetian yesterday, I noticed Collin Moshman in the 8 seat and Ed Miller in seat 10. I was sent to another table after 5 minutes so I didn't get a chance to witness their play. Still, what are the odds of finding 3 celebrated poker writers on one table?

Simon, Venetian dealer and missing link

2012-12-14T22:32:00.000-08:00

One of the functions of this blog is to act as my personal safety valve. Ever since that apelike simian, Simon, set foot in the Venetian, he has dealt me a continuous stream of coolers, bad beats, crappy cards, and missed flops. It is wickedly uncanny and no dealer even comes close. This stuttering baboon has cost me thousands of dollars. Variance, it would seem, has long since been replaced by voodoo.

Tonight was no exception. Well, fuck you Simon and the evolutionary chain you rode in on.

WPBT

2012-12-06T01:29:00.000-08:00

Last weekend, poker bloggers gathered in Las Vegas for the traditional winter WPBT get-together. I have been attending since the summer of 2005, but circumstances were such that I couldn't make it this time and tweeted my apologies to that effect.

However, I was fortunate enough to meet lightning36 who made the effort to come and see me.

Little GTO

2012-11-26T22:54:00.000-08:00

There's an interesting thread on 2+2 about whether the top poker pros use game theory as part of their strategy. It appears that some do while others are blessed with an innate ability that acts as a substitute.

Today there are bots employing GTO (game theory optimal) strategies that could beat any human in heads-up limit hold'em (LHE). In the beginning of the thread, no less than Durrrr (Tom Dwan) issued a challenge whereby he was willing to take on any bot in LHE. There were a few takers but as of yet, Durrrr has not agreed.

No limit hold'em (NLHE), with its different betting structure, is a much more complex endeavor when it comes to programming a GTO bot. In fact, the largest game ever solved was checkers (2007), which took a team led by Jonathan Schaeffer nearly 16 years and involved 200 desktop computers. NLHE is more complicated than checkers.

Incidentally, Professor Schaeffer had this to say about solving chess :

"The number of chess positions possible (as calculated in several chess books, a couple of which are chess encyclopedias which probably quote from other sources) is greater than the number of atoms in the universe (assuming that it is 10-15 billion light-years in diameter). So roughly, the complete game tree would not fit on a computer the size of the universe. But, the entire game tree does not have to be on the computer at once. And many positions are not important. Some experts in artificial intelligence think that a very large computer (larger than any in existence, but certainly smaller than a planet) may be able to solve chess by calculating for a few thousand years, maybe for hundreds of years."

Better than a slowroll

2012-11-19T02:13:00.000-08:00

I'm sitting in the 5 seat and a local to my right comes back with a visually appealing dish which he starts eating at the table. I ask him what it is and he gruffly replies "What's it look like?"

Hmmm, I have no idea and just say "Sorry for asking."

Shortly thereafter, he moves to the 2 seat, and about an hour later he is all-in against the 9 seat who calls. Shithead shows a set of 8's while the 9 seat tables 64 for a straight. Shithead gets up and leans forward as he has trouble discerning the winning hand at the opposite end of the table.

"Is that a straight?" he asks.

"What's it look like?" I chime in without missing a beat.

A chimp and a chair

2012-11-11T23:04:00.000-08:00

After 495 days...

2012-11-06T15:17:00.000-08:00

Full Tilt Poker officially reopened for real money play today at 12:00PM GMT (4:00AM PT). As was to be expected, there were some teething problems (cashier functionality, inability to login etc.), but this didn't prevent FTP from regaining number 2 spot with over 40,000 players online after a few hours.

As the countdown proceeded and with 15 minutes to go before FTP went live, one particular poster on 2+2 couldn't contain himself :

Full Tilt is ready to go

2012-10-31T21:52:00.000-07:00

With worldwide re-launch slated for November 6, USA players will at least be able to enjoy the best poker software for play money only. I just downloaded and logged into Full Tilt, and found that Rush Poker is almost as addictive with play money.

Reviewing the Reviewer

2012-10-25T02:12:00.000-07:00

Andrew "Foucault" Brokos, professional poker player, coach, and book reviewer, writes a very interesting article titled "Stop Worrying About Draws" in Card Player magazine (October 17, 2012), the gist of which is that just because there is a potential flush or straight draw on the flop, the likelihood of someone actually having such a draw is not as high as it would appear.

He shows how for different flops the number of possible combinations of potential draws are relatively small compared to the total number of actual possible combinations.

In doing so, however, he slips up a couple of times with his calculations.

"There are six times as many ways to be dealt 9-8 offsuit as 9-8 suited, though admittedly many players will fold the former to a raise."

This is clearly wrong. There are 16 combinations of any 2 different ranks, 4 of which are suited. So there are 3 times as many ways to be dealt 9-8 offsuit as 9-8 suited.

A little further on, Brokos states :

"Two-card straight draws are almost always less likely than two-card flush draws because they require two cards of a particular rank. Whereas any two of eleven remaining hearts (110 combinations) produce a nine-out flush draw on a Th 7h 2c flop, a player must hold one of four eights and one of four nines (16 combinations) to have an eight-out straight draw."

Once again he errs. There are 55 combinations, not 110. Nevertheless, his conclusion is still valid :

"Thus protecting your hand from straight draws is generally less important than protecting from flush draws."

All in all, a thought-provoking article.