My EMBA Journey

First blog from iPod touch

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 20:38:00 +0000

Recently I bought an Apple iPod touch. I have been amazed at it's performance and it's utility as a productivity tool.

I am planning to publish serious of blogs explaining the benefits and in general my experience with it.

- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Kodak Brand Exploratory Report

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 09:41:00 +0000

This report is part 2 of the 3 part Kodak Brand Exploration series. If you have missed the first report please look at my previous blog. Based on this analysis one should gain experience in qualitative methodology by conducting an in-depth interview. Second, you will gain experience in working with the fieldnote/recorded data to write a descriptive report.

Following are the guidelines for this report.

Understand the nature of a comprehensive brand audit in terms of the brand exploratory component
Gain experience in the qualitative research methodology of in-depth interviewing
To learn how to use question probing to gain a detailed perspective of a consumer
To begin to see links between qualitative data and marketing strategy
To understand the early stages of the marketing research process in which a researcher must immerse him/herself in the client’s world to gain insight for problem definition.

Background Reading:

“Brand Audit Guidelines” in Strategic Brand Management, Kevin L. Keller, 2003, Prentice-Hall, pp. 162-172.

Brand Exploratory: Qualitative Research Requirements

In qualitative research, it is very important for a researcher to gain trust and general rapport with his/her respondent. In the interest of completing this assignment in a timely fashion, a suggested methodology is for you to enlist a friend or loved one (i.e., your spouse) with which you have this type of trust relationship to be your respondent.

Plan to interview the respondent using open-ended questions (see Major Areas for Questioning section below). The responses to one question may lead you to ask other related questions (not included here). Use the questions here as a starting point and expect to ask other questions (probing questions) yourself as the interview proceeds. Again, there is no strict format for this interview (as is often the case in qualitative research!). You may not ask all of these questions; don’t try to if it feels awkward or inappropriate. Try to ask some questions about each of the major topic areas.

Step 1: Talk to your respondent for 5-10 minutes in order to pre-screen him/her. The respondent should be an owner and/or user of a digital camera and be familiar with the technology at a minimal level.

Step 2: Conduct the interview at a later time (i.e., next day). You should plan to spend at least 1 hour talking to your respondent.

Now the report follows here...

Introduction

As part of our Kodak brand audit report, we are performing a brand exploratory step to identify the reach of Kodak brand among customers. This is done by qualitatively measures by conducting an in-depth interview with a customer to understand his views and his perception of Kodak brand. This report will summarize the research experience, respondent details, interview environment and responses. Also it will take a giant leap and try to associate these findings with the Kodak marketing strategy decisions.

Note of caution

This report considers only 1 individual’s opinion; hence no major conclusions should be made using this report.

Respondent description

I interviewed a 32 year old Asian male who is married with no kids. He is working for an insurance firm as a software engineer. He owns a digital camera and a cell phone camera. He owns a color printer but prints all his photos from a professional printing shop.

Interview process

Interview was done in 2 steps.

Step 1: Requested the respondent on his opinion to participate in a 30 minute survey

Step 2: Completed the interview

Interview environment

Date: 2^nd March 2007

Time: 11:30 AM

Location: Office department lounge, Duration: 20 Minutes

Interview Techniques

Following are the techniques used in our interview.

Association Techniques

Consumers see a stimulus and are asked to respond with the first thing that comes to their mind. E.g. Respond to this statement: “In the past, it was a double print world”

Construction Techniques

This requires the respondents to construct a response in the form of a story, dialogue or description in a less structured form than a completion technique

E.g. Picture response technique: Respondents are asked to tell stories of the pictures shown (Kodak Picture with 3 Printers)

Laddering Method

Laddering methods are a useful way to elicit the higher order benefits and values offered by the brand beyond immediate product, user or user related attributes.

Zaltman Metaphor Elicitation Techniques

Perform a one-to-one interview as a guided conversation using story telling, construct elicitation, Identify the key themes or constructs, code the data, and assemble a consensus map involving the most important constructs

A look at the response

Most fascinating thing about this interview is, it is my first real interviewing of a person for research. Even though I was excited, I contained my excitement and followed the questions in a structured order. I took couple of minutes to break the ice and then explained the intention of this interview to the respondent. I started with the brand association questions, following are my findings from the respondent’s answers (See Exhibit A for the answer sheet)

My respondent is a loyal Sony consumer
“Never looked a camera as innovative”
“Never needed lots of features in a camera”
Considered Low end models of Sony with less mega pixel camera as Cheap
“Never browsed for professional cameras”
Considered SLR cameras are difficult to use
Never mentioned any other brand except Sony and Pentax.

A look at the response – Major Areas of Questioning

He has used 2 digital cameras (1 Pentax digital camera – 4 years old, 1 cell phone camera)
“ I am an Amateur; I Point & Shoot with my Digital Camera” – This comment pretty much summed the nature of the respondent
Another aspect I observed from the interview is that the respondent feels intimidated with too many features in a camera
He doesn’t like having a camera on a cell phone in spite of owning a cell phone camera.
He likes to print out pictures most often, but doesn’t use his own color printer as he feels that the professional printing shop does job than him.
He shares his photos on Orkut – Networking website
His wife maintains photo journals

For more details on the responses please see Exhibit B.

A look at the response – Kodak Printers

Never heard of Kodak printers
Would prefer a lower end model (149.99) as he doesn’t like complex features in a printer
Happy with optimum resolution provided by a lower end model
Price of printers doesn’t matter
Low cost of print ink does attract him to consider this line of printer

Does the above response impact Kodak Marketing Strategy

One key observation is that the cost of print ink does attract him to buy the printer

Price of printers is not considered expensive for this respondent. With this preliminary data, it looks like Kodak might have a winning product in hand. Further conclusions will be made based on our future research.

Appendix

Brand Association Questions: (Exhibit A)

Next, I’m interested in the brands of digital cameras that you associate with various characteristics. For each characteristic, tell me which digital camera brand comes to mind. If no brand comes to mind for a characteristic, please tell me.

Characteristic	Brand
Expensive	None
Clunky	None
Innovative	Never looked a camera as innovative
Good value for the money	Sony
Good for taking sports/action photos	Sony
Easy-to-use	Sony
Lots of features	Never needed lots of features in a camera
Cheap	Low end models of Sony Less mega pixel cameras
Good for taking family photos	Sony
Sleek	Sony new models
Basic	Sony
High tech	Sony
For professionals	Never looked at one
Difficult-to-use	Old SLR cameras
Other:	Sony is the best
Other:

Major Areas for Questioning: ( Exhibit B)

What brand of digital camera do you own and/or use?

Pentax digital camera / 2 Megapixel (Bought before 5 Years)

Topic 1: Memory Management

How do you take photographs?

I am an Amateur; I Point & Shoot with my Digital Camera

How are you using your digital camera?

I use it to take pictures in family gatherings

How do you manage the images captured on a digital camera? What happens after you take a picture?

I store it in my computer. I take selected pictures to the professionals (Ritz Camera) in a mall and get it printed.

Respond to this statement: “In the past, it was a double print world”

I am always a single copy guy

How has picture taking and picture using changed? For example, what happens after you take a picture with your digital camera?

It used to be “Camera in Control of picture output” now the “User is in Control of picture output”

Also digital cameras have reduced the waiting time from taking a photo, developing and viewing

What makes you print pictures?

To preserve memories

What prevents you from printing pictures?

I don’t like printing pictures which are not worth looking again.

Topic 2: Picture Utilization

How do you view pictures?

Albums, Computer slideshows

How do you share pictures?

Email, Orkut (Networking Website), Physical albums

How do you use images to keep track of memories?

My Wife creates storyboards and arranges pictures accordingly

Are you using pictures in the same way compared to 5 years ago? How?

Yes, hasn’t changed me a lot. Only difference is I can delete my unwanted pictures

Are you using pictures in different ways compared to 5 years ago? How?

How do you want to share stories via images?

I don’t, but my wife does

Do you view or share pictures online using Facebook or MySpace or other similar internet sites? If yes, how? Why? Yes, Orkut, Once in a while

If no, why not?

Topic 3: Cameras in Cell Phones

Do you use your cell phone to take pictures? No, But I own a cell-phone camera

If so, how often? Very rarely

What type of pictures do you take with a camera phone versus a digital camera? Not Applicable

On what occasions, usually?

If so, how is this picture taking similar to or different from that with your digital camera? Not Applicable

What happens after you take a picture with your cell phone? Not Applicable

Is your choice of cell phone influenced by the camera capability/features for the phone? No

Do you think there will ever be a time in which camera phones replace "traditional" digital cameras? Never

How much would current camera capability in mobile phones need to improve before the camera phone was the primary picture taking device? I am a 2 hand guy; I don’t prefer taking pictures in 1 hand

Topic 4: Photo Printing and Potential Acceptance of Inkjet Printer

When you do want prints of digital photographs, how do you get them? Do yo go to a photo processing center (retail store) or print your own? Photo Processing Center

If you print your own, what brand of inkjet color printer do you own? I don’t print my pictures, but I do own a color printer.

How often do you print your own photos? Never

What prevents you from printing images using your own color printer?

Cost
Time
Ability to order from home and pick-up at retail locations (Wal-Mart, Walgreens)

I believe professionals do a much job than me.

Kodak’s newest product offering is an inkjet printer line “All-in-One Printers” that allow for high quality documents and photos at lower prices compared to the traditional inkjet technology.

Kodak EasyShare All in One Printers ($149.99 - $299.99, three models)
Print cartridges (B&W $9.99, Color $14.99)

If you were able to buy ink cartridges for less, would you print more of your digital photos yourself? Why or why not?

No, prefer a Professional Printing Center

Following are the observation when the customer was showed a paper with different Kodak printers.

Would prefer a lower end model (149.99) as he doesn’t like complex in a printer
Happy with optimum resolution provided by a lower end model
Price doesn’t matter
Cost of print ink doest attract him to consider this line of printer

Kodak Brand Audit Presentation

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 10:12:00 +0000

Attached here is the presentation for the kodak brand audit project.

Kodak Brand Audit Report

View SlideShare presentation or Upload your own.

Kodak Brand Audit Report

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 09:39:00 +0000

Kodak Brand Audit Requirement

This research is being performed to dig deep in to consumer insights and get important answers to the following questions. This would determine if the assumptions about certain products are true and if so, what are the chances that a customer would prefer Kodak's product over the competitors.

Critical Questions

Today, more and more multi-function devices are becoming available. More functionality is being added to the mobile phone, and it is difficult to find a new mobile phone without some capability to take a picture.

How many consumers have their choice of phone influenced by the camera capability/features for the phone?

How many consumers regularly use the camera feature on their phone?

Are there different image management/handling requirements for digital cameras and mobile phones?

What type of pictures do consumers take with camera phones versus digital cameras?

Do consumer envision a time in which camera phones replace "traditional" digital cameras?

How much would current camera capability in mobile phones need to improve before the camera phone was the primary picture taking device?

How important is the ability to capture video as a feature in a digital camera (or mobile phone)?

Kodak just announced its entry into the inkjet printer market. Are there other product categories where the Kodak brand might be leveraged for entry into a new market space?

Purpose of this project is to gain direct exposure to analysis of a brand using secondary data in completing a brand inventory.

Learning Objectives

Understand the nature of a comprehensive brand audit
Gain experience with secondary data sources
Use secondary data to demonstrate knowledge and understanding about a focal brand by completing a brand inventory
Use secondary data (as available) to learn customer/marketplace perceptions about the focal brand
To understand the early stages of the marketing research process in which a researcher must immerse him/herself in the client’s world to gain insight for problem definition.

Explore Kodak with regard to the digital camera/printer products and market. In order to assess competition in this market, conduct the same exploration for a competitor brand.

Background Reading:

Brand Audit Guidelines” in Strategic Brand Management, Kevin L. Keller, 2003, Prentice-Hall, pp. 162-172.

Brand Inventory

Using secondary data (news articles, annual reports, etc.) develop a current profile of how Kodak digital cameras are marketed and branded. In other words, how is this brand promoted? How are Kodak digital cameras represented in the marketplace? In addition to cameras, explore the new Easy Share printer system. To get started, look in the Investor Relations (Corporate) section of the Kodak website and scan news releases. Additional information and links are in the Innovations section in this area of the website.

The outcome of the brand inventory should be an accurate, comprehensive, and timely profile of how Kodak digital cameras (and printers) and the assigned competitor are branded. This includes marketing communication and other supporting marketing programs” (see Keller, p. 163).

Profiling one or several competing brands may be helpful in this exercise to illustrate similarities and differences across the brands

Brand Inventory Report - Introduction

Kodak is a multi dimensional provider of products and services to the photographic, graphic communications and healthcare markets. Consumers use Kodak’s system of digital and traditional capture products and services to take print, store and share their pictures anytime, anywhere. This report takes a deep dive in to the brand auditing of Kodak brand. We will look at the brand inventory of Kodak digital cameras and printers. We will also stack up Kodak products against a competitor to understand the brand portfolio positioning grid.

Brand Audit

Brand audit is the process where companies estimate their brand awareness among the customers; estimate the current valuation of the brand and the proposition of the brand.

The purpose of the brand inventory is to provide the current profile of how all the products and services sold by the company are marketed and branded. Scope of this report would be restricted to Kodak digital cameras and printers.

Kodak Cameras

Kodak Cameras are very widely used. Their easyshare series of cameras are very popular among customers. One of the important attribute of Kodak cameras are the affordable price points. If you look at the below illustration, a 10.0 Megapixel camera is priced at 249.05, which is considered a very low price.

Kodak has a wide variety of cameras. They are classified as follows

Point and shoot
High Zoom
Pocket
Performance
Easy-Share One

In 2004 Kodak had a market-share of 20.1%. Due to increased competition they have dropped considerably. IDC has predicted by 2009 worldwide digital camera sales would slow down. Kodak cameras have many features which many companies didn’t offer. For example their pictbridge printing technology is so powerful that their products where selling just for the pictbridge feature.

Kodak Printers

Printer business has been very lucrative with a huge opportunity for growth. Kodak has been a late entrant in this market, but they have arrived with a solid concept of saving 50% of price on ink. This is a huge revolution in the printer market as it breaks the conventional wisdom. As per the norms printer companies make money of printer accessories instead of the actual printer. But Kodak with its revolutionary design and development knowledge, they have come out with a printer which can guarantee a life time quality of picture. Price of ink is so low that it beats the market by 50%. Only downside is price of printer is high comparing the competitor prices.

Kodak EasyShare 5100

Marketing efforts has been a great success for Kodak. All major syndications carried the news of the release of revolutionary printers.

Kodak Cameras Vs HP Cameras

HP entered digital camera market in 1998. They have released consistent models, but haven’t been able to make a dent in the Kodak marketshare. Please see appendix for information relating to the difference in the current models of Kodak and HP cameras.

Kodak Printers Vs HP Printers

Kodak has 3 new lines of All-In-One printers. HP has only one printer Deskjet F380 which can be compared in this range. Following is the comparison of the performance between a Kodak and HP printer.

Kodak Marketing Efforts

Kodak has aggressively started marking of their new revolutionary printers. They have used the word “think” to infer this product is all about saving the cost on ink.

Kodak in the News

KODAK: Kodak Revolutionizes the Inkjet Industry New Line of All-In-One Inkjet Printers Produces Durable, High-Quality Documents and Photos; Low-cost premium inks save customers up to 50 percent on everything they print, M2 Presswire, February 6, 2007

Kodak Wins Three CES Innovations Awards and Receives Prestigious Honors from Popular Science and PC Magazine; Honors Include "Best of Innovations" Award for the KODAK EASYSHARE V610 Dual Lens Digital Camera, Business Wire, January 8,2007

Summary

This article has taken an effort to collect the current profile of Kodak. It assessed the profile against HP to compare the various specifications of HP and Kodak. This information should be used for brand exploratory and further study.

Appendix

Barack Obama - Commemorative Time Issue

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 19:33:00 +0000

If you are looking for Time Magazines Barack Obama's Commemorative issue then you are at the right place.

For some reason Time has removed the link from their home page.

Please find the link to the magazine at http://subs.timeinc.net/backissuestore/Main.jhtml?IDs=TD20081117&category=2008&subcategory=TD&page_number=

Google Flu Trends

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 10:30:00 +0000

Google.org is an organization which aspires to do good to the world by focusing on global challenges such as climate change, poverty and emerging disease. They have released a new technology tool named Google Flu Trends. This tool helps to identify flu trends based on predictions and historical data.

Following is the information from Google blog.

Like many Googlers, we're fascinated by trends in online search queries. Whether you're interested in U.S. elections, today's hot trends, or each year's Zeitgeist, patterns in Google search queries can be very informative. Last year, a small team of software engineers began to explore if we could go beyond simple trends and accurately model real-world phenomena using patterns in search queries. After meeting with the public health gurus on Google.org's Predict and Prevent team, we decided to focus on outbreaks of infectious disease, which are responsible for millions of deaths around the world each year. You've probably heard of one such disease: influenza, commonly known as "the flu," which is responsible for up to 500,000 deaths worldwide each year. If you or your kids have ever caught the flu, you know just how awful it can be.

Our team found that certain aggregated search queries tend to be very common during flu season each year. We compared these aggregated queries against data provided by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and we found that there's a very close relationship between the frequency of these search queries and the number of people who are experiencing flu-like symptoms each week. As a result, if we tally each day's flu-related search queries, we can estimate how many people have a flu-like illness. Based on this discovery, we have launched Google Flu Trends, where you can find up-to-date influenza-related activity estimates for each of the 50 states in the U.S.

The CDC does a great job of surveying real doctors and patients to accurately track the flu, so why bother with estimates from aggregated search queries? It turns out that traditional flu surveillance systems take 1-2 weeks to collect and release surveillance data, but Google search queries can be automatically counted very quickly. By making our flu estimates available each day, Google Flu Trends may provide an early-warning system for outbreaks of influenza.

For epidemiologists, this is an exciting development, because early detection of a disease outbreak can reduce the number of people affected. If a new strain of influenza virus emerges under certain conditions, a pandemic could emerge and cause millions of deaths (as happened, for example, in 1918). Our up-to-date influenza estimates may enable public health officials and health professionals to better respond to seasonal epidemics and — though we hope never to find out — pandemics.

We shared our preliminary results with the Epidemiology and Prevention Branch of the Influenza Division at CDC throughout the 2007-2008 flu season, and together we saw that our search-based flu estimates had a consistently strong correlation with real CDC surveillance data. Our system is still very experimental, so anything is possible, but we're hoping to see similar correlations in the coming year.

We couldn't have created such good models without aggregating hundreds of billions of individual searches going back to 2003. Of course, we're keenly aware of the trust that users place in us and of our responsibility to protect their privacy. Flu Trends can never be used to identify individual users because we rely on anonymized, aggregated counts of how often certain search queries occur each week. The patterns we observe in the data are only meaningful across large populations of Google search users.

Flu season is here, so avoid becoming part of our statistics and get a flu shot! And keep an eye on those graphs if you're curious to see how the flu season unfolds...

Posted by Jeremy Ginsberg and Matt Mohebbi, Software Engineers

Registry of Economics Blogs

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 14:18:00 +0000

Professor William R. Parke of the University of North Carolina is hosting this registry of most important and relevant economics blog. You can view his ad-free website at http://www.rtable.net/index/rt/economics/371/ . By far this is the classic collection of economic blogs you want to follow. This site aggregates all the recent blogs published from its registered list. This is a Really fascinating collection. I am sure you will spend a substantial time of yours in this classic site.

Drop me a note on your thoughts on this registry.

Google Mashups

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 13:16:00 +0000

Lately, I have been testing a beta product named "Google Mashups". This product helps to create mashups. These are web pages or widgets which is created by combining various source of information. For e.g. Google mashups can combine a RSS feed and atom feed from BBC, NY Times, Asian Journal to create a global news mashup.

With the introduction to mashup, let me give you a taste of my mashup - http://trendswatcher.googlemashups.com which tracks Google trends and identifies current news related to Google trends. Google tracks the trends from its search engine and constantly refreshes the trend information. My mashup retrieves the trend list and for the selected trend, it can show the news, blog info and wiki information. I am planning to add images, photos, movies, music, shopping to the list of items related to the trend.

If you want to learn how to work with Google Mashups. Visit my mashup blog Circulardots.com

You can also view my trend watcher here...

Role of United States in Saving Mother Earth

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 13:51:00 +0000

Role of United States in Saving Mother Earth

Executive Summary

There is a classical saying in Tamil language, ‘You need a wall to paint a picture’. Mother Earth has given abundant of resources for its people. It is important to preserve and value our resources. 20^th century has brought many advances in every aspect of human life; science has played a critical role in several of these advances. As development happened and quality of life improved it also created a deadly impact in the environment where we live by the way of greenhouse gas emissions in to the atmosphere. These emissions has started to dangerously interfere with the climate system and have been leading to flood, famine, widespread malnutrition, starvation, epidemic and increased mortality.

Gross World Product is around $60 Trillion in 2005 out of which U.S. has a share of $14 Trillion. So far US have been primary contributor to the greenhouse gas emissions. But the fast growing developing countries such as China and India are set to takeover U.S. in the coming years. World governments, corporations, small businesses and individuals in every country need to work to reduce greenhouse gases emitted in to the atmosphere. This report looks at the role of U.S. political system in the fight against saving mother Earth.

We are trying to understand the role of U.S. political system by understanding the issues surrounding climate change, U.S. stand on Kyoto protocol and a look at Strategic Plan designed by Executive Office. President Bush’s historical stand on climate change, role of international countries and groups to influence U.S. participation in reducing greenhouse gases. Presidential nominees opinions on climate change. Europe’s role in climate change, Increasing awareness through international media, noble peace prize, Hollywood movies. Finally we end with looking at the latest development in Bali convention and provide a strategic recommendation for U.S. government.

Our recommendation to the U.S. congressmen is to enact bills which would facilitate reduction of GreenHouse Gases by corporations, small businesses and individuals. Work with UNFCCCC closely to continue shaping the climate change plans. Work with developing and poor countries with their efforts to reduce GreenHouseGas(GHG) by transferring technologies and know-how knowledge and best practices. U.S. should actively participate in the climate trading system which would greatly enhance the participation of every country.

Global Climate Change

Alarming number of scientific reports suggest that climate change is happening. Scientists have confirmed that earth is warming due to man-made sources such as car emissions and power plants. Due to combustion of fossil fuels, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, are at a level unequaled for more than 400,000 years. Following is an excerpt from PEW Climate change report.

“Carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases always have been present in the atmosphere, keeping the earth hospitable to life by trapping heat. Yet, since the industrial revolution, emissions of these gases from human activity have accumulated steadily, trapping more heat and exacerbating the natural greenhouse effect. As a result, global average temperatures have risen both on land and in the oceans, with observable impacts already occurring that foretell increasingly severe changes in the future. Polar ice

is melting. Glaciers around the globe are in retreat. Storms are increasing in intensity. Ecosystems around the world already are reacting, as plant and animal species struggle to adapt to a shifting climate, and new climate-related threats emerge”.

As we can see from the above figure global temperature trend is etching higher drastically over the last century. In last 10 years there has been noticeable increase in temperature. World metrological department has indicated that 2005 has been the hottest year on record. For United States, first 6 months in 2006 were the warmest such period on record.

Greenhouse gases have been identified as the root cause for such drastic temperature increase. Primarily greenhouse gases are emission of carbon-dioxide, burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil, deforestation, agriculture and industrial processes.

U.S. faces climate change threat

United States with 5 percent world population is responsible for 25 percent of global GHG emissions, more than any other country. On an intensity basis US emissions are 50 percent higher than that of Japan.

Pew report designed various scenarios for major cities in U.S. Findings revealed that number of heat-wave days in the Midwestern cities can be expected to increase by 70% by the end of this century. This is a great danger for the growing population in these cities.

Pew report is indicating that every planner, developer, corporation and governmental agencies should be considering the effects of climate change in their projects.

Increasing awareness of Climate Change

There is a huge increase in general awareness of climate change among public. Awareness has been raised by the mammoth effort of the media. Following are the 2 major efforts which contributed to the increase in awareness. AN INCONVEINIENT TRUTH movie by former president AL Gore won OSCAR award and Al Gore received Noble peace price for 2007.

“Humanity is sitting on a ticking time bomb. If the vast majority of the world's scientists are right, we have just ten years to avert a major catastrophe that could send our entire planet into a tail-spin of epic destruction involving extreme weather, floods, droughts, epidemics and killer heat waves beyond anything we have ever experienced. ” – Director Davis Guggenheim – AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH (2 OSCAR Awards – 2006).

AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH, which offers a passionate and inspirational look at one man's fervent crusade to halt global warming's deadly progress in its tracks by exposing the myths and misconceptions that surround it. Al Gore – former Vice President who in the wake of his 2000 presidential election defeat re-set the course of his life to focus on a last-ditch, all out effort to help save the planet from irrevocable change. This movie raised great awareness by winning several premier awards including OSCAR awards.

With wit, smarts and hope, AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH ultimately brings home Gore's persuasive argument that we can no longer afford to view global warming as a political issue - rather, it is the biggest moral challenges facing our global civilization.

Global Awareness – Nobel Peace Price 2007

Ultimate awareness came when Nobel Committee announced the peace prize for 2007 would be shared by Al Gore. This really elevated the importance of global climate change among the public around the world. Attached in the appendix is the letter announcing the Nobel peace prize for 2007. Reading the attached letter would help understand the significance of climate change taking precedence over other peace issues.

United Nations and Climate Change

United Nations has taken the climate change issues very seriously. They have formed organizations which can work with various countries around the world. These organizations have conducted several meetings, conferences to get consensus from various countries. Following is an overview of UNFCCCC and the famous Kyoto protocol signed in Kyoto Japan – 2005.

UNFCCCC

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

Kyoto Protocol

The Protocol requires developed countries to reduce their GHG emissions below levels specified for each of them in the Treaty. These targets must be met within a five-year time frame between 2008 and 2012, and add up to a total cut in GHG emissions of at least 5% against the baseline of 1990. Review and enforcement of these commitments are carried out by United Nations-based bodies.

The Protocol places a heavier burden on developed nations under the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities.” This has two main reasons. Firstly, those countries can more easily pay the cost of cutting emissions. Secondly, developed countries have historically contributed more to the problem by emitting larger amounts of GHGs per person than in developing countries.

President Bush and his policies on Climate Change

"Addressing global climate change will require a sustained effort, over many generations. My approach recognizes that sustained economic growth is the solution, not the problem – because a nation that grows its economy is a nation that can afford investments in efficiency, new technologies, and a cleaner environment."

- President George W. Bush

In February 2002 President Bush announced a voluntary 18-percent reduction of greenhouse gas intensity (the ratio of emissions to gross domestic product) by 2012. By this target emissions would actually raise as the economy grows. By 2004 U.S. emissions were 18 percent higher from 1990 levels and 2.6 percent higher from 2002 levels. Congress and Bush couldn’t come to an consensus to create a mandatory climate bill. This has hampered great progress being made in controlling the GHG emissions.

Bush Administration Stand on Kyoto

“Kyoto is, in many ways, unrealistic. Many countries cannot meet their Kyoto targets. The targets themselves were arbitrary and not based upon science. For America, complying with those mandates would have a negative economic impact, with layoffs of workers and price increases for consumers. And when you evaluate all these flaws, most reasonable people will understand that it's not sound public policy. ”

- President George W. Bush

International Actions on Climate Change

GHG emissions have not been a sole issue of U.S. In U.S. emissions are set to rise 8 percent above 2004 levels by 2010 and 28 percent by 2025. By comparison it is projected to hold steady in the EU and decline 5 percent in Japan by 2010. Emissions are rising rapidly at developing countries. China’s emissions are set to double and India’s emission is set to increase by 80 percent by 2025.

In 1992 countries signed the UNFCCCC with the objective to avoid dangerous human interference with the climate. 189 countries including U.S. has ratified the agreement. By 2005 governments launched new processes as described in Kyoto protocol.

The future of the international effort hinges in large measure on the United States – other major emitters are not going to participate without the participation of the major economy and emitter. As U.S. starts to strengthen the domestic response to climate change, it should start providing leadership needed for an long term global effort.

U.S. States & Climate Change

With little effort from Washington, various states and local leaders have taken various steps to implement the Kyoto protocol. Following graph shows the amount of regional initiatives being driven without the support of federal government.

U.S. Local Leaders & Climate Change

Businesses Readiness for Climate Change

No longer can businesses treat climate change as a non-risk. Time has come to take this risk seriously or else face the irreversible losses and consequences. Following are some of the studies done with which businesses are readily looking to minimize the climate change impact.

1. Threats to competitiveness

2. Physical risks to business

3. Disclosure of material risks

4. Regulation viewed as inevitable

The Presidential Candidates on Climate Change

A growing environmental awareness among Americans has brought the issue to the forefront of the 2008 presidential campaign. Both Republican and Democratic candidates have been asked to explain their stance on global warming during the debates and on the campaign trail. Most of the Democrats say the United States should lead the global effort to curb greenhouse emissions and advocate federally mandated emission laws. The Republicans, many of whom are unsure about the human role in climate change, tend to emphasize energy independence and efficiency.

- KITTY BENNETT AND FARHANA HOSSAIN

BALI Conference

The Conference, hosted by the Government of Indonesia, took place at the Bali International Convention Center and brought together more than 10,000 participants, including representatives of over 180 countries together with observers from intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations and the media. The two week period included the sessions of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, its subsidiary bodies as well as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. A ministerial segment in the second week concluded the Conference.

The conference culminated in the adoption of the Bali roadmap, which charts the course for a new negotiating process to be concluded by 2009 that will ultimately lead to a post-2012 international agreement on climate change. Ground-breaking decisions were taken which form core elements of the roadmap. They include the launch of the Adaptation Fund as well as decisions on technology transfer and on reducing emissions from deforestation. These decisions represent various tracks that are essential to achieving a secure climate future.

Strategic Recommendations

1. Our recommendation to the U.S. congressmen is to enact a mandatory climate bill which would facilitate reduction of GreenHouse Gases by corporations, small businesses and individuals.

2. Work with UNFCCCC and lead the BALI Roadmap closely to continue shaping the climate change plans. Work with developing and poor countries with their efforts to reduce GreenHouseGas(GHG) by transferring technologies and know-how knowledge and best practices.

3. U.S. should actively participate in the Emission Trading Scheme which would greatly enhance the participation of every country.

Merits & DeMerits of The Strategic Recommendations

Mandatory Climate Bill

Merits :

Climate bill which would clearly specify the reduction targets for GHG
Initial support to businesses, individuals to comply to the target
Increased quality of life, less pollution, stable economy
Less footprints on mother earth

DeMerits :

Business and individuals may have to incur an initial expense to comply
Some industries need to change their business practices, e.g. Automobiles
United States has to reduce its dependency on oil
Pressure on new technologies to be mature sooner they were supposed to

Bali Roadmap

Merits :

Next step to Kyoto
Increased agreement from developing countries
Includes technology transfer to poor countries
Reducing emissions from deforestation

DeMerits:

Impact to logging industry
Intellectual property issues
Developing countries commitment/adherence to Bali Roadmap

Emission Trading Scheme

Merits :

Increased compliance with international standards.
On par with European Union standards.
Highly competitive environment

DeMerits :

1. Impacts to some businesses

2. Corporations need to increase spending to fix the emissions of GHG.

3. Some businesses might go out of business.

APPENDIX
The Nobel Peace Prize 2007

"for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change"

“ The Norwegian Nobel Committee has decided that the Nobel Peace Prize for 2007 is to be shared, in two equal parts, between the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr. for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change.

Indications of changes in the earth's future climate must be treated with the utmost seriousness, and with the precautionary principle uppermost in our minds. Extensive climate changes may alter and threaten the living conditions of much of mankind. They may induce large-scale migration and lead to greater competition for the earth's resources. Such changes will place particularly heavy burdens on the world's most vulnerable countries. There may be increased danger of violent conflicts and wars, within and between states.

Through the scientific reports it has issued over the past two decades, the IPCC has created an ever-broader informed consensus about the connection between human activities and global warming. Thousands of scientists and officials from over one hundred countries have collaborated to achieve greater certainty as to the scale of the warming. Whereas in the 1980s global warming seemed to be merely an interesting hypothesis, the 1990s produced firmer evidence in its support. In the last few years, the connections have become even clearer and the consequences still more apparent.

Al Gore has for a long time been one of the world's leading environmentalist politicians. He became aware at an early stage of the climatic challenges the world is facing. His strong commitment, reflected in political activity, lectures, films and books, has strengthened the struggle against climate change. He is probably the single individual who has done most to create greater worldwide understanding of the measures that need to be adopted.

By awarding the Nobel Peace Prize for 2007 to the IPCC and Al Gore, the Norwegian Nobel Committee is seeking to contribute to a sharper focus on the processes and decisions that appear to be necessary to protect the world’s future climate, and thereby to reduce the threat to the security of mankind. Action is necessary now, before climate change moves beyond man’s control. ”

THE CANDIDATE

STANCE ON GLOBAL WARMING
AND AMERICA'S ROLE

IF ELECTED, THEY SAY THEY WOULD ...

PAST ACTIONS ON THE ISSUE

Hillary Rodham Clinton
Democrat

U.S. NEEDS TO TAKE IMMEDIATE, SENSIBLE STEPS TO SLOW AND ULTIMATELY REDUCE EMISSIONS

The scientific consensus is clear and overwhelming: we are causing the planet to warm, with potentially devastating consequences. We need to take immediate steps to address this problem. Critics contend that action will be too costly, but I believe that action is both an environmental necessity and an economic opportunity. By putting the right incentives in place, we will drive American businesses to innovate, creating new products and new jobs. Failing to act is the riskier course to both our environment and our economy.

-- Statement on a United Nations report on climate change, Feb. 2, 2007

Given the scientific evidence that we have and the potential consequences of continued warming, I strongly believe this nation needs to take sensible first steps to slow and ultimately reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases that contribute to climate change.

-- Statement on a United Nations report on climate change, Feb. 2, 2007

Have the United States lead international efforts to address the problem of climate change.

Support policies to reduce carbon emissions and other pollution that contribute to global warming.

Establish a national market-based program to reduce global warming pollution.

Invest in clean energy technologies.

Increase fuel efficiency.

-- More information

Co-sponsored the "Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act" in 2007, which would require the U.S. to reduce emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.

Co-sponsored the "Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act of 2007," which would cut carbon emissions by 30 percent from 2000 to 2050.

Sponsored the "Strategic Energy Fund Act of 2006," which would have established a $50-billion fund to create a research agency focused on reducing the threat of global warming and to invest in clean energy technologies.

Voted yes on an amendment to the "Energy Policy Act of 2005," which would have capped greenhouse gas emissions at 2000 levels by 2010.

Voted yes on an amendment to the "Energy Policy Act of 2003," which would have increased automobile fuel efficiency standards to 40 mpg by 2015.

Barack Obama
Democrat

U.S. MUST LEAD GLOBAL EFFORTS TO REDUCE EMISSION; WOULD INSTITUTE CAP-AND-TRADE SYSTEM

Strengthened institutions and invigorated alliances and partnerships are especially crucial if we are to defeat the epochal, man-made threat to the planet: climate change. ... As the world's largest producer of greenhouse gases, America has the responsibility to lead. While many of our industrial partners are working hard to reduce their emissions, we are increasing ours at a steady clip -- by more than ten percent per decade. As president, I intend to enact a cap-and-trade system that will dramatically reduce our carbon emissions. ... Getting our own house in order is only a first step. ... We need a global response to climate change that includes binding and enforceable commitments to reducing emissions, especially for those that pollute the most: the United States, China, India, the European Union, and Russia.

-- Wrote in the Foreign Affairs magazine, July/August 2007 issue

Support implementation of a market-based cap-and-trade system to reduce carbon emissions 80 percent by 2050.

Would require all transportation fuels in the United States to contain 5 percent less carbon by 2015 and 10 percent less carbon by 2020.

Would establish targets for annual fuel economy increases while giving industry the flexibility to meet those targets.

Would give automakers health care assistance in exchange for their investing 50 percent of the savings into technology to produce more fuel-efficient vehicles.

Support alternative fuels.

-- More information

Co-sponsored the "Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act" of 2007, which would require the U.S. to reduce its emissions by 2050 to 80 percent below 1990 levels.

Co-sponsored the "Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act of 2007," which would cut carbon emissions by 30 percent from 2000 to 2050.

Voted yes on an amendment to the "Energy Policy Act of 2005," which would have capped greenhouse gas emissions at 2000 levels by 2010.

Mitt Romney
Republican

EMPHASIZES ENERGY EFFICIENCY; U.S. SHOULD NOT ACT TO REDUCE GREENHOUSE GASES UNLESS DEVELOPING NATIONS ARE COMMITTED TO DOING THE SAME

You're seeing the climate get warmer or climate change is occurring and I believe that human activity is contributing to that. I don't know what proportion of the change is due to human activity but my policy is to adopt what I refer to as a 'no regrets policy' -- to take action that allows us to become more energy efficient and ultimately become energy independent as a nation. ... I would like to see us work on a global basis on this effort. I really don't think it's productive for us to act solely on a unilateral basis to reduce our greenhouse gases if we have developing nations like China and India continue to increase their output of greenhouse gases and not be party to a greenhouse gas effort.

-- Business and Industry Association National Leaders Forum, May 29, 2007

Advocates U.S. energy independence as a "strategic imperative."

Supports alternative fuels, including biodiesel and ethanol, nuclear power and drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

-- More information

Proposed "Climate Protection Plan" as Massachusetts's governor in 2004, which said the state must consider the impact on greenhouse gases when state regulators evaluate highway projects and other public construction plans. The state never implemented the provisions.

Backed out of regional pact to curb carbon dioxide emissions from power plants because of concerns that the emissions fee would drive up the already-high price of electricity.

Reference:

http://www.climatecrisis.net
Al Gore’s AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH Movie Website

www.pewclimate.org
The Pew Center on Global Climate Change brings together business leaders, policy makers, scientists, and other experts to bring a new approach to a complex and often controversial issue. Our approach is based on sound science, straight talk, and a belief that we can work together to protect the climate while sustaining economic growth.

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/issues/climate/index.html
The Presidential Candidates on Climate Change

http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/2007/press.html
Press release for 2007 peace prize

INDIAN COMPANIES IN POLAND - PROJECT REPORT

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 01:34:00 +0000

Indian Companies in P

oland

Executive Summary

Poland a land of dragon folklores and religious symbolism has transformed itself from a communist, closed economy to a multi party open economy. This transformation has not gone unnoticed; especially its accession towards European Union has made Poland a really attractive country for new business. Initially Indian businesses were little slow to react to the opportunities presented by Poland, but things have changed and they are soon catching up. This report takes a look at the various competitive advantages provided by Poland to Indian businesses and how these advantages have/haven’t been utilized.

Historical Overview

It is important to look at historical, political, economic and social factors to understand the need for trade between India and Poland. During the cold war times India was s close supporter of Soviet Union; this relationship helped India to establish ties with soviet controlled territories. Poland and India conducted regular high level visits, trade and economic interactions implemented by state trading organizations and underpinned by the rupee clearing arrangements, inter governmental cooperation in defense and science and technology and cultural exchanges.

Defense has been a key factor in the indo-polish bilateral relations from the very beginning. Defense equipment and supplies production institutions on both sides have been regularly in contact. Service chiefs have been exchanging visits relating to training programs. There has been a great cooperation between two countries on UN Peace keeping operations.

Poland Economic Climate

Poland has a population of around 38 million; it is the largest country in central Europe and ranks 8^th in Europe by size of population and 9^th by area. Poland followed a centrally planned economy till 1989 and became the first country to open its economy and make it market driven. Reforms undertaken by polish governments have ensured that foreign trade is privatized and it has grown from a meager $14 billion in 1989 to $671 billion in 2006. Poland joined European Union officially on May 1 2004. Foreign trade has fuelled most of the Poland’s growth in the recent years.

Indo-Polish Bilateral Trade

Comparative chart listed in Exhibit A shows that in 2003 Poland imported $225 million worth of goods and services from India and exported $81 million worth of goods and services. This number has changed drastically to $469 million imports and $202 million exports in 2006. It is only 0.38% of total imports which Poland makes and 0.19% of exports it makes but looking at the growth potential India offers, Poland has earmarked its special attention towards India.

Indo-Polish trade for the last 15 years

Indian Companies in Poland

Indian companies are currently concentrating on its primary competitive advantages such as tea, coffee, rice, tobacco, cotton and in software services. Tata Tetley has the second biggest market share after its acquisition of local Vitax and Flosana trademarks in Poland. Zensar an Indian outsourcing service provider is planning to employ 300 people in 30 months. TCS and WIPRO other large global players have started operations in Poland. Once these companies see initial potential they wouldn’t hesitate to invest heavily. Other major providers like HCL, Infosys have made major moves in to Poland.

Reliance industries, Trevira – a company of the Reliance Group, and manufacturer of polyester fibers started production of texturised yarns in Zielona Gora in 2006.

Indian Companies Presence

Following are the major industries Indian companies are doing business

IT Services
Pharmaceutical Research
Polyester fibers
Packaging tubes
Tea

Indian companies are utilizing some of their competitive advantages but there is a huge upside potential for various businesses. We will look deeper in to various advantages offered by Poland for companies to do business.

Dunning Eclectic Theory

First question that a company should ask itself is “why should a company go abroad? Is there a location advantage?” This theory reflects international business activity and business activity internal to the firm. As per Dunning FDI would occur when the company realizes one of the following advantage.

Location Advantage
Ownership Advantage
Internalization Advantage

Now let’s see what advantage does Poland offers.

1. Strong growing economy

2. Highly skilled labor pool

3. Strategic location

4. Sizable domestic market

5. Access to EU Funds

6. Beautiful country

So we can definitely see location being a great advantage for Poland. Next step is to see how Indian companies can utilize them.

India’s core strength is economies of scale in service industry. To keep the momentum to achieve bigger economies of scale they are constantly investing in human capital. If a location offers skilled high-tech labor pool with a strategic location and accessibility to new funds, this opens up a great opportunity for Indian IT companies to grow bigger in Poland.

How can Indian manufacturing companies utilize the competitive advantages of Poland? Key to this answer is strategic location which Poland offers. Some of the companies are already setting up operation center to create a distribution channel to Baltic nations, Ukraine, Belarus, and other central European countries.

Indian movie industry is the silent jewel in the large mix of industries which can benefit from entering in to Poland. First Poland offers beautiful landscapes, cities for the movie industry to produce quality movies with great backgrounds, second Indian movie industry is constantly looking for new market to enter. With 40 million populations which appreciate foreign culture, it would be easier to market Indian movies.

Top 5 Sectors which can benefit from the Poland’s competitive advantage.

Automotive Sector

Poland is a country with a well developed automotive industry tradition and a place in which it’s worth investing. The factors which are drawing global corporations to invest in Poland are

1. Low labor costs

2. Highly qualified workers educated at excellent technical institutes

3. Network of over 650 sub-contractors, of which 200 have the highest quality certificates i.e. ISO/TS 16949.

4. Polish car parts can be found in such makes of car as: Mercedes, Nissan, Opel (GM), Porsche, Toyota, Volkswagen, Isuzu, Fiat, Citroen, Honda, Peugeot, Volvo, BMW, Rolls-Royce, Lamborghini and Ferrari.

Poland is a major force in the production of the following components:

· Engines,

· Rubber parts,

· Car seats and upholstery,

· Auto electronics,

· Electrical cables,

· Braking system parts.

Bio Technology Sector

“There is significant potential in research in the Polish biotechnology sector and though the country’s industry is concerned chiefly with the presentation and distribution of imported finished goods, many indicators show that this is beginning to change and that in the future the industry will be different. The most significant factor is the highly educated body of young scientists emerging from the Polish universities and technical colleges. ” – Invest in Poland Website

Benefits to be gained from biotechnology investments in Poland:

· Research potential

· Very well trained personnel

· Favorable government policy

BPO Centers

Poland offers key benefits for companies specializing in bookkeeping and finances, IT services and in R&D work. Poland’s main advantages in attracting these types of projects are:

Favorable investment climate
Particularly high levels of qualifications
The development of the modern office space market.

Why Poland? It’s important to stress certain facts: currently in Poland there are 10 large academic centers and there are over 2 million students. To the firms that are considering in an outsourcing sector investment in Poland, this provides a great many choices of potential locations.

Poland’s strengths compared to other countries are: its highly qualified workers, the standard of the higher education institutes, abilities in languages and the low risk factor of an investment.

IT Sector

The Polish IT market is following Russia’s, the second largest market in Central and Eastern Europe. According to the firm PMR’s research, its value has reached a figure of 19.8 million PLN, and for the second time the growth was in double digits, reaching a level of - 12.4%. The forecasts relating to 2007 anticipate growth in the market’s value to 22.4 million PLN, which would raise the ratio to 13%.

Following are the key factors why Poland is an attractive market for IT services.

1. Quality of the services provided

2. Level of creativity, which often exceeds the expectations of employers.

3. Young Polish IT specialists year after year win top places in international programming competitions, such as ACM, the Imagine Cup and Top Coder.

4. Availability of a high quality IT communications infrastructure

5. Many flight connections and data communications - that are at an identical level to those in Western Europe.

6. The final factor, the importance of which is losing significance in the light of our high quality services, is still cost effectiveness.

The Polish IT market

Following chart gives an overview of sales in IT; this industry has been constantly growing.

Following chart shows the distribution of IT Market Segments in Poland

Sectors that because of expenditure increases in recent years have influenced the high level of Polish IT growth are:

· telecommunications

· financial sector

· industrial production sector

· local and central government administration

Areas Indian companies needs to be cautious

Above chart provides the areas where Indian companies should be cautious of, for e.g. tax regulation is very complex and can have undesired impact to the bottom line numbers. Even though communism is gone, the personnel who were part of the previous administration are still left and indirectly may have an impact. Michael porter’s global competitive index rates corruption as a key issue for the companies to face in Poland.

Conclusion:

Poland is proving to be a long term growth market. With its universities, strategic location and growing domestic market, its showing signs of sustained growth. Indian companies who are closely looking for location advantage should consider Poland as an investment options.

References

www.IndianEmbassy.PL
Warsaw Business Journal http://www.wbj.pl/cf/cf_india_07/index.htm
Ernst & Young Guide to doing business in Poland - http://www.paiz.gov.pl/files/?id_plik=9003
http://www.paiz.gov.pl
Globalization – Professor Mark Behnam’s class slides
Globalization of Business – Professor Richard Torrisi’s class slides
Strategic Management – Professor Mark Lehrer Slides and Robert Grant Slides
Contemporary Strategy Analysis – Robert Grant
Michael Porter’s Global Competitive Index website

Appendix

COMPARATIVE CHART OF POLAND’S GLOBAL TRADE VS POLAND’S

BILATERAL TRADE WITH INDIA (FOR YEARS 2003 TO 2007)

Year	IMPORT ACTIVITY (IN US DOLLARS MILLIONS)		EXPORT ACTIVITY (IN US DOLLARS MILLIONS)			TOTAL TRADE TURNOVER (IN US DOLLARS MILLIONS)
	POLAND'S GLOBAL IMPORTS	POLAND'S IMPORTS FROM INDIA	POLAND'S GLOBAL IMPORTS	POLAND'S IMPORTS FROM INDIA	POLAND'S GLOBAL IMPORTS		POLAND'S IMPORTS FROM INDIA
2003	68004	225.20	53577	81.09	121581		306.29
2004	87909	310.41	73805	84.32	161714		394.73
2005	101539	367.43	89378	200.82	190917		568.25
2006	124647	469.02	109107	202.01	233754		671.03
2007 (8 mths)	99472	440.55	85897	98.09	185369		538.64

Poland Visit Executive Summary

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 01:32:00 +0000

Executive Summary

This report stems from the trip to Poland undertaken by myself with the 09’ Cohort during April 19 2008 – April 25 2008. I am summarizing my trip experience from different perspectives including communicating with locals, observing people, media, organization, managers, businesses, culture and historical perspective. Major objectives of the trip are to understand the current economic and business events. This report will encompass aspects related to Geography, History, Politics, Economics, Religion and Business. It was really fascinating to see how each and every above mentioned aspect plays a critical role in the development of Poland. For e.g. if we take religion, 96% of polish are catholic. This is important to understand the shared values of a culture and also to understand how people perceive and prioritize objectives.

Krakow Visit

We were a team of 10 including 2 professors left from Boston to arrive at Krakow on a Sunday morning. Krakow Airport was not big, in-fact it resembled a sophisticated Boston bus station. We could see many military flights parked near the airport facilities. After getting some rest, team departed for an afternoon city tour around Krakow. It is a beautiful city, most of the places are covered by lush green pastures and beginning of spring is beautiful with various blossoming flowers. Tour guide was excellent; she had so much energy on a Sunday afternoon, she gave us a brief overview of Krakow history and then took us to the main square of Krakow which consists of St. Mary’s Basilica, lot of tourists, shopping place, several street drink bars with nice chairs. We did notice several restaurants, currency exchange, and clubs in and around Main Square.

From Main Square we walked our way to Wavel castle which housed kings who ruled Poland from 1038 until 1596. In 1364 Jagiellonian University the oldest and best known university was founded as Cracow Academy. Krakow has 11 university or academy level institutions offer courses in the city with 170,000 students and 10,000 faculties in addition to 12 colleges. Within Wavel castle we had a great experience to touch a bell which is at-least 10 feet tall. We also noticed large bone structures hanging from the church walls, there is a mythic belief that if these bones fall off the chain then the world will see the end. We saw a metal dragon pumping fire in the air along the river vistula.

Krakow University of Economics Visit

After the memorable city tour we continued our next day by visiting Krakow university of Economics. We met Professor Andrzej Wojtyna who is a member of the monetary policy council. He was quite incredible; his knowledge of the system from a macro and micro perspective was very prominent. He helped us to understand decoupling of polish economy from world economy, labor market in Poland, emigration in Poland, Impact to zlotys after joining EMU, role of EURO2012.We had a lively discussion around the role of a federal reserve system and its role in setting the target fed fund rate. Discussion revolved around what would happen if the free market controls the interest rates.

Some of the key outcomes of the meeting were related to the fact that Poland economy is highly tied to European and US economies. There was a genuine concern raised in terms of government spending after major EU initiatives such as EU2012 championship and joining of EMU. Recent experiences with Italy and Spain can be a learning curve for Poland and its central government to not make the similar mistakes.

After the morning session we had the first taste of Polish meal. We started with borshch which is a beet soup with pierogi (meat dumplings). We had coleslaw, grilled chicken and fried potato balls (My favorite); to top it all we had ice-cream and dessert. Personally I wasn’t sure if I was prepared for Polish food, but I liked it and it was great.

Arcelor Mittal Visit

After having a sumptuous lunch we went to visit Arcelor Mittal at outskirts of Krakow. Apparently this site was selected by Soviet Union to build steel plant and hence to address the high unemployment issues in Krakow. Following are some information from Siemens website, which provided the key support for building the plant.

“ With the new 2250 mm high performance hot strip mill, Mittal Steel Poland will operate one of Europe’s widest plants of this kind with an annual capacity of 2,400,000 t/a. Since ten years this is the first new hot strip mill to be implemented in Europe”

Plant Data

Location
Mittal Steel Poland, Cracow works
Start-up
Commercial production beginning early 2007
Project Execution Siemens VAI Linz
Output Strip dimension
Thickness 1.2–25.4 mm, Width 750–2,100 mm
Capacity
Annual Capacity 2.400,000 t/a

As the team arrived at the Arcelor Mittal corporate office, we were greeted by a young polish lady who had great command over English language; subsequently we found that she was the official interpreter for the Director of the plant. We met 2 senior officials; first person was the manager in-charge of the newly constructed hot strip mill and the second was the director of the entire plant. Director spoke in polish and his interpreter did a great job in terms of translating engineering and financial terms from polish to English. Personally this was a great learning experience for me to see how local language plays a significant role as part of the local culture. I could sense a preferential treatment when it came to people who can speak Polish and people who didn't.

Session with University Alumni Head

Our night outs were fantastic, polish people were very helpful, and service was exemplary. We spoke to locals; they really appreciated us when we tried to speak some polish words. On the following day we had a session with a Polish local Borys Skraba who apparently had five years of sales/marketing experience in US. He understood both the culture, indicated several important issues relating to the present and older generations. He listed the following areas as things which Poland needs to look after if they are really geared up for a long term growth.

Research & Design
Innovation
Infrastructure development
Corruption

On day 2 we visited Valeo – the French auto parts manufacturer. I saw several large manufacturers on route to Valeo viz., Delphi, Motorola. Route to Valeo was very similar to Indian technology parks with several major multi nationals springing next to each other. Valeo managers were very young and aggressive. They briefed us about their market share, major clients and gave a tour of their assembly line.

Motorola Visit

On day 3 we visited Motorola Software Division, I was surprised to know that this division is not involved in any cell phone related sectors. This team was mainly working on Motorola Tetra and other mission critical solutions.

“Motorola is acknowledged as a global leader in the supply of TETRA critical communication systems. As a leading provider of mission and business critical information and communication solutions, we have the experience and expertise to transform performance and deliver levels of network security and resilience, performance and value that until now have only been available to large government customers. ”

We were shown their data center which apparently had millions of wires. Our cohort member Dan commented "Totally Wired for a wireless company"

Delphi Visit

We visited Delphi, In my opinion this was the best part of our trip. We spoke to the senior management of Delphi Krakow. To my surprise they indicated that they are in Chapter 11 for last 3 years and haven't seen any issues relating to keeping existing customers, winning new clients, relationship with suppliers and even employees.

They didn’t even see any issues with attrition. They also indicated that their unit is currently up for sale and several entities are looking to buy them. Senior management was very patient to address all our curious questions. It was incredible to understand how a business can operate even during chapter 11 and be totally isolated from the parent company and be still profitable. Their short tour was very valuable. Learnt several aspects related to auto part stress testing mechanism.

Auschwitz Visit

After completing our trip to Delphi we took a trip to Auschwitz. Saddest part of our trip was at Auschwitz. It was really disturbing to see what really went on at Auschwitz I & II. It’s almost like walking down the history lane. One thing I learnt from my visit is the true capability of a human mind. We saw several thousands of visitors at Auschwitz representing several nationalities.

We got a great chance to mix with the locals. We met the EMBA students from university of economics. They were very friendly, courteous and highly knowledgeable.

Trip to Warsaw

Last 2 days of our visit centered on Warsaw. It is the capital of Poland. We could see a stark difference between the people living in Warsaw and Krakow. Warsaw's crowd was more business oriented and Krakow was more academic oriented. We had a session with the US Embassy at Krakow. Political Counselor David Van Cleve and Commercial Counselor John McCaslin briefed us on historical background, political environment, business opportunities, and business risks.

Warsaw Stock Exchange

On the final day of the trip we visited the Warsaw stock exchange which has seen some recent turmoil due to global stock market crashes. Their PR Manager showed us around the exchange and explained us about their index WIG and WIG20. We could see the great growth pattern for Warsaw stock exchange.

Conclusion

In conclusion, I am in total awe after this trip. I am really surprised I have learnt so many things about Poland culture, people, business, economics, religion, and politics. This is a great country with immense natural and human resources. It is in the center of strategic location from a European Union standpoint. Also they are going to be the gateway for the developing Baltic nations. Poland is making right strategic moves in terms of joining European Union, EMU, and EU2012. Next logical step for them is to deregulate their economy and continue their growth momentum to achieve a long term benefits for the people of Poland.

Financial Research Survey Results

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 16:15:00 +0000

Recently I conducted a Financial Survey to find if there is a need for a Financial Information Research Portal. Following is the result of the research. I was really surprised by the results. I am sure you will benefit from the insights provided by the dataset.

Financial Information Portal Research Survey Report

	Count	Completed / Started	Completed / Viewed
Completed	33	84.62%	68.75%
Started	39
Viewed	48

Please select the country where you live
India	2	8.33%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland	1	4.17%
United States of America	21	87.50%
Total	24

Mean	167.58
Standard Dev.	28.21
Variance	795.82

Your Age group
20 - 24	0	0.00%
25 - 34	16	45.71%
35 - 49	18	51.43%
50+	1	2.86%
Total	35

Mean	2.57
Standard Dev.	0.56
Variance	0.31

Investment Type

Select all the investment types, that you have invested in the past 1 year
Stocks	20	21.05%
Bonds	8	8.42%
Mutual Funds	18	18.95%
Options	6	6.32%
Commodities	2	2.11%
Forex	1	1.05%
IRA	8	8.42%
401K	23	24.21%
Other	9	9.47%
Total	95

Mean	4.75
Standard Dev.	3.00
Variance	9.02


Other Option [Other]
real estate
403B
None
direct INvestement
529B
FD
CD

How do you make your investments?
Through a broker	9	23.68%
Online brokerage firm	14	36.84%
Other	15	39.47%
Total	38

Mean	2.16
Standard Dev.	0.79
Variance	0.62


Other Option [Other]
	work
	n/a
	Freind refferals
	uni
	financial planner
	e-banking
	Self
	my own experience

Do you have an online brokerage account?
Yes	20	57.14%
No	15	42.86%
Total	35

Mean	1.43
Standard Dev.	0.50
Variance	0.25

How would you categorize your investment skills?
Beginner	10	28.57%
Intermediate	20	57.14%
Expert	3	8.57%
Master	2	5.71%
Total	35

Mean	1.91
Standard Dev.	0.78
Variance	0.61

How frequently do you invest?
Day trader	1	3.13%
1 - 5 times a week	1	3.13%
1 - 10 times a month	18	56.25%
I just use the rebalancing features of my 401k provider	12	37.50%
Total	32

Mean	3.28
Standard Dev.	0.68
Variance	0.47

How much time do you spend on research before you make your investment decisions?
I don't research, I believe in my insight and experience	5	16.67%
I leave it to my broker	3	10.00%
1 - 2 Hours	4	13.33%
2 - 5 Hours	8	26.67%
More than 5 Hours	10	33.33%
Total	30

Mean	3.50
Standard Dev.	1.48
Variance	2.19

Please select the different research tools that you use or have used
Public financial websites - i.e. Yahoo finance, Google finance, MSN Money etc.,	22	20.37%
Subscribed financial websites - WSJ, Financial Times, The Street etc.,	9	8.33%
Commercial financial products - Bloomberg Terminal, Factset, etc.,	7	6.48%
Finance TV - CNBC, Bloomberg, FOX Business Network	8	7.41%
Analyst reports	10	9.26%
Paid Newsletters	0	0.00%
Company website	9	8.33%
Blogs	6	5.56%
Industry reports	15	13.89%
SEC Filings	6	5.56%
S&P, Morning Star reports	10	9.26%
Other	6	5.56%
Total	108

Mean	5.84
Standard Dev.	3.78
Variance	14.26


Other Option [Other]
	Motely
	My broker
	None
	own research
	Rediff.com columns

What do you feel about the information overload when you are researching?
I am experienced to identify the right information	8	22.22%
I have developed a customized research techniques	5	13.89%
I get bogged down with all the information overload	8	22.22%
I would like a research tool which can filter contents based on my research criteria	13	36.11%
Other	2	5.56%
Total	36

Mean	2.89
Standard Dev.	1.28
Variance	1.64


Other Option [Other]
	Financial advisor walks me through
	N/A

Do you read company quarterly/annual report
Yes	20	60.61%
No	13	39.39%
Total	33

Mean	1.39
Standard Dev.	0.50
Variance	0.25

How much time do you spend on watching financial television channels like CNBC, Bloomberg or FOX Business Network
1 hour a day	11	33.33%
2 hours a day	2	6.06%
3 hours a day	1	3.03%
4+ hours a day	0	0.00%
I don't watch business channels	19	57.58%
Total	33

Mean	3.42
Standard Dev.	1.90
Variance	3.63

How much time do you spend on financial websites like yahoo finance, WSJ, Google finance, The Street, etc.,
1 hour a day	15	48.39%
2 hours a day	3	9.68%
3 hours a day	1	3.23%
4+ hours a day	2	6.45%
I don't visit business websites	10	32.26%
Total	31

Mean	2.65
Standard Dev.	1.84
Variance	3.37

Do you read financial blogs, if so how many blogs do you follow regularly
1	6	30.00%
3	3	15.00%
5	1	5.00%
Other	10	50.00%
Total	20

Mean	2.75
Standard Dev.	1.37
Variance	1.88


Other Option [Other]
	none
	Don't read
	none
	NO
	0
	0
	0

Select the key characteristics you like in a research tool. Please rate the significance of each factor that you select.
Portfolio management
Least Desired	2	8.70%
Desired	7	30.43%
Most Desired	14	60.87%
Total	23

Mean	2.52
Standard Dev.	0.67
Variance	0.44



Industry assessment
Least Desired	0	0.00%
Desired	13	52.00%
Most Desired	12	48.00%
Total	25

Mean	2.48
Standard Dev.	0.51
Variance	0.26



Competitive assessment
Least Desired	0	0.00%
Desired	12	50.00%
Most Desired	12	50.00%
Total	24

Mean	2.50
Standard Dev.	0.51
Variance	0.26



Macro-economic impacts
Least Desired	8	33.33%
Desired	8	33.33%
Most Desired	8	33.33%
Total	24

Mean	2.00
Standard Dev.	0.83
Variance	0.70



Micro-economic impacts
Least Desired	6	26.09%
Desired	9	39.13%
Most Desired	8	34.78%
Total	23

Mean	2.09
Standard Dev.	0.79
Variance	0.63



Resource/capabilities view
Least Desired	3	13.04%
Desired	15	65.22%
Most Desired	5	21.74%
Total	23

Mean	2.09
Standard Dev.	0.60
Variance	0.36



Financial forecasting
Least Desired	0	0.00%
Desired	12	48.00%
Most Desired	13	52.00%
Total	25

Mean	2.52
Standard Dev.	0.51
Variance	0.26



Historical financial data analysis
Least Desired	0	0.00%
Desired	18	69.23%
Most Desired	8	30.77%
Total	26

Mean	2.31
Standard Dev.	0.47
Variance	0.22



Scenario analysis
Least Desired	6	27.27%
Desired	9	40.91%
Most Desired	7	31.82%
Total	22

Mean	2.05
Standard Dev.	0.79
Variance	0.62



Ranking
Least Desired	2	8.70%
Desired	10	43.48%
Most Desired	11	47.83%
Total	23

Mean	2.39
Standard Dev.	0.66
Variance	0.43



Research summary
Least Desired	2	8.33%
Desired	7	29.17%
Most Desired	15	62.50%
Total	24

Mean	2.54
Standard Dev.	0.66
Variance	0.43



Analyst reports
Least Desired	2	7.69%
Desired	13	50.00%
Most Desired	11	42.31%
Total	26

Mean	2.35
Standard Dev.	0.63
Variance	0.40



Newsletter summary
Least Desired	10	45.45%
Desired	5	22.73%
Most Desired	7	31.82%
Total	22

Mean	1.86
Standard Dev.	0.89
Variance	0.79

What is your willingness to spend money on a financial research tool
Most Willing	10	30.30%
Least Willing	23	69.70%
Total	33

Mean	1.70
Standard Dev.	0.47
Variance	0.22

How much would you spend on a customizable financial research tool
$10 - $20 a Month	7	21.21%
$20 - $40 a Month	3	9.09%
Annual subscription of $200	5	15.15%
I will not spend money	18	54.55%
Total	33

Mean	3.03
Standard Dev.	1.24
Variance	1.53

Prediction for the decade

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 20:19:00 +0000

Following is an article published on September 30, 1999 by Steven A Holmes in New York Times. It is really remarkable to see, how accurately Steve predicted the future. Unfortunately we are living through the issues presently.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

September 30, 1999
Fannie Mae Eases Credit To Aid Mortgage Lending
By STEVEN A. HOLMES

In a move that could help increase home ownership rates among minorities and low-income consumers, the Fannie Mae Corporation is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders.

The action, which will begin as a pilot program involving 24 banks in 15 markets -- including the New York metropolitan region -- will encourage those banks to extend home mortgages to individuals whose credit is generally not good enough to qualify for conventional loans. Fannie Mae officials say they hope to make it a nationwide program by next spring.

Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits.

In addition, banks, thrift institutions and mortgage companies have been pressing Fannie Mae to help them make more loans to so-called subprime borrowers. These borrowers whose incomes, credit ratings and savings are not good enough to qualify for conventional loans, can only get loans from finance companies that charge much higher interest rates -- anywhere from three to four percentage points higher than conventional loans.

''Fannie Mae has expanded home ownership for millions of families in the 1990's by reducing down payment requirements,'' said Franklin D. Raines, Fannie Mae's chairman and chief executive officer. ''Yet there remain too many borrowers whose credit is just a notch below what our underwriting has required who have been relegated to paying significantly higher mortgage rates in the so-called subprime market.''

Demographic information on these borrowers is sketchy. But at least one study indicates that 18 percent of the loans in the subprime market went to black borrowers, compared to 5 per cent of loans in the conventional loan market.

In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk, which may not pose any difficulties during flush economic times. But the government-subsidized corporation may run into trouble in an economic downturn, prompting a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980's.

''From the perspective of many people, including me, this is another thrift industry growing up around us,'' said Peter Wallison a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. ''If they fail, the government will have to step up and bail them out the way it stepped up and bailed out the thrift industry.''

Under Fannie Mae's pilot program, consumers who qualify can secure a mortgage with an interest rate one percentage point above that of a conventional, 30-year fixed rate mortgage of less than $240,000 -- a rate that currently averages about 7.76 per cent. If the borrower makes his or her monthly payments on time for two years, the one percentage point premium is dropped.

Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, does not lend money directly to consumers. Instead, it purchases loans that banks make on what is called the secondary market. By expanding the type of loans that it will buy, Fannie Mae is hoping to spur banks to make more loans to people with less-than-stellar credit ratings.

Fannie Mae officials stress that the new mortgages will be extended to all potential borrowers who can qualify for a mortgage. But they add that the move is intended in part to increase the number of minority and low income home owners who tend to have worse credit ratings than non-Hispanic whites.

Home ownership has, in fact, exploded among minorities during the economic boom of the 1990's. The number of mortgages extended to Hispanic applicants jumped by 87.2 per cent from 1993 to 1998, according to Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies. During that same period the number of African Americans who got mortgages to buy a home increased by 71.9 per cent and the number of Asian Americans by 46.3 per cent.

In contrast, the number of non-Hispanic whites who received loans for homes increased by 31.2 per cent.

Despite these gains, home ownership rates for minorities continue to lag behind non-Hispanic whites, in part because blacks and Hispanics in particular tend to have on average worse credit ratings.

In July, the Department of Housing and Urban Development proposed that by the year 2001, 50 percent of Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's portfolio be made up of loans to low and moderate-income borrowers. Last year, 44 percent of the loans Fannie Mae purchased were from these groups.

The change in policy also comes at the same time that HUD is investigating allegations of racial discrimination in the automated underwriting systems used by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to determine the credit-worthiness of credit applicants.
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Book Review - Getting Past No

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 17:42:00 +0000

Book Review - Getting Past No (William Ury)

Starting to Getting Past No

I started reading this book “Getting Past No” as part of my Conflict & Negotiation course assignment. William Ury is the author of this book who has previously co-authored the book on “Getting to Yes” with Roger Fisher. Before I started reading this book, I wanted to get an overview of this book; I turned to the back-cover followed by the author’s note. The back-cover of this book asks questions on how to get past no and presents strategies on getting to yes. Author’s note makes a start by explaining the seeds behind the book concept. Author has tried to answer two important questions in this book, how can one turn confrontation in to cooperation? And how can one transform conflicts to be fought in to problems to be solved?

Interestingly author goes on to explain how cooperation is important in family, business and global environment. He stresses on the fact that court cases and war is not the answer to conflict resolution. Courts and war are highly expensive solutions and doesn’t necessarily provide a solution to acute conflicts. This book has been classified in to 3 sections. First section “Getting ready” focuses on how to be prepared before going to negotiate. Second section “Using the Breakthrough Strategy” explains 5 key strategies that can be employed to achieve a mutually acceptable/negotiated solution to a conflict.
Final chapter “Turning Adversaries into Partners” looks at how to turn adversaries in to partners.

Breaking Through Barriers to Cooperation

William starts with an Italian diplomat’s quote “Diplomacy is the art of letting someone else have your way”. How true it is, in our day to day life we constantly negotiate to reach a mutually agreed solution. There are times when we have an upper hand and other time we don’t. Author explains negotiations as a process of back and forth communication aimed at reaching agreement with others when some of your interests are shared and some are opposed. William identifies the following 5 behaviors as the barriers to cooperation.

Your Reaction
Their Emotion
Their Position
Their Dissatisfaction
Their Power

Joint Problem Solving

This is a process in which you move away from the position and focus more on the interests. This way negotiation process moves from opposite to side by side. When the person shifts to the other side they see the interests of each side. Thus if a person negotiates with a manager for a promotion focuses more on the interests (Tuition fee, 401k, health care plan, etc,) instead of the position he might want. Joint problem solving helps the negotiations process by reducing the time and energy spent on posturing. Also it improves the work relationship by mutually benefiting each party.

Breakthrough Negotiation

William Ury provides the following five step strategy to counter the barriers to cooperation.

Barriers to Cooperation	Breakthrough Negotiation
Your Reaction	Go to the balcony
Their Emotion	Step to their Side
Their Position	Reframe
Their Dissatisfaction	Build them a golden bridge
Their Power	Use power to educate

William Ury gives an analogy of sailing to explain the principles of breakthrough negotiation. I have some experience in sailing a J24 in which primary strategy to reach the goal was to take a zigzag position. This is important in sailing as traveling straight to destination would be doomed failure. Following the flow of the wind and ensuring that strong winds, tides, reefs, shoals, storms and squalls are handled in the process. Similarly breakthrough negotiation has different stages and each stage needs to be handled with a unique approach. Ury explains the importance of breakthrough negotiator as “Your single greatest opportunity is to change the game. Instead of playing their way let them have your way”. Breakthrough negotiators treat their opponents as the negotiating partners who are presenting an opportunity to reach a mutually satisfactory agreement.

Preparation – Key to Success

This books talks in detail on why preparation is mandatory for an effective negotiation. It charts out a plan for a negotiator to reach a mutually agreeable conclusion. Identify interests for both the parties, what are options involved for those interests. Create a set of standards to resolve the differences fairly, alternatives to negotiation and proposals for agreement.

Go to the balcony

Human beings are reaction machines. When a human being is confronted most natural tendency is to react without thinking. We react by striking back, giving in or breaking off. Dangers of reacting without thinking to a situation are we start to loose sight of our interests. By reacting we become the part of the problem. Ury says we get in to a vicious cycle of action and reaction, but the power to break this cycle is with us. Mind can be controlled; it doesn’t have to follow the Newton’s law of reacting to every action. During the negotiation process at any time if one experiences difficulty they should step back, collect their wits and see the situation objectively. This process of viewing an issue from outside is depicted as going to the balcony. It metaphorically means the mental attitude of detachment.

Step to their Side

Going to the balcony has helped a negotiator to regain a mental balance; next step is to help the other side regain theirs. Important challenge here is how one can create a favorable climate in which one can negotiate. Outcome of this exercise is to ensure that one is treated as a human being. Control the emotional aspects and make sure that the other side understands your view point even though they may not like it.

Key secret to disarm is surprise, when they are expecting to attack step to their side, acknowledge their issues and feelings, hear them out, paraphrase and ask for corrections. Acknowledge the person, by doing so you are creating what psychologists call “cognitive dissonance” and inconsistency between perception and reality.

Reframe

Author names this chapter as “To Change the Game Change the Frame”. To change the negotiation game, try changing the frame. Do the opposite of what you may feel tempted to do. Treat your opponent as a partner. Try reframing the opponents view; it is a golden opportunity to understand the problems of the opponent.

Build them a Golden Bridge

This is the phase when a negotiator is ready to sign the agreement. A negotiator has ensured that he/she suspended the reactions, defused other side’s emotions and reframed their position. Still there could be issues; final barrier could be other side’s dissatisfaction. Building a golden bridge doesn’t necessarily mean creating a great proposal but it also involves the other side’s involvement and participation in the agreement. Second it means that we need to move from the obvious interests i.e. money and move towards the intangible needs such as recognition, relationship, etc, also it means that the opposite side feels they have achieved a victory.

Use Power to Educate

Exercising power is an integral part of problem-solving negotiation. Use the power to bring the other side to the table. Instead of seeking victory, aim for mutual satisfaction. Use power to bring them to their senses and not to their knees.

Conclusion: Turning Adversaries in to Partners

Authors conclude by saying “Breakthrough negotiation is hard work. Successful negotiators are patient and persistent. Progress comes gradually. Small breakthroughs can add up to a major breakthrough. In the end even negotiations that once seemed impossible can often yield a mutually satisfactory agreement.

Getting To Yes – Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 17:08:00 +0000

Book Review - Getting To Yes

Introduction

This paper is a reflection of the book “Getting To YES” written by authors Roger Fisher and William Ury. This book was written based on a question “What is the best way for people to deal with their differences”. How two or more entities that are involved in a conflict could amicably reach a mutually satisfying agreement without feeling that one of them gave in.

Book Framework

Book starts with an introduction to Negotiation, need for negotiation. It looks at the fundamental problems in classical negotiation. In the first section it explains why one should not bargain over position. In the next chapter it goes on to define methods to separate people from the problem. Explains why one should focus on interests and not on positions. Negotiator should take time to invent options for mutual gain and should insist on using objective criteria. All the above mentioned methods would help a negotiator reach a mutually satisfying agreement. In the final section authors look at three important questions that often come to our mind. What If the other party doesn’t play by the rule or more powerful or it uses dirty tricks.

Don’t Bargain over Position

This chapter looks at the ill effects of a positional bargain. In this situation the parties involved in a conflict takes a position and starts arguing for their position. There is a considerable amount of haggling before an agreement can be reached, wasting considerable time and energy. A positional bargain fails to meet the basic criteria of producing a wise agreement, efficiently and amicably. Reasons attributed to failure of this method are overlooking the concerns related to the negotiator and primarily focusing on the position. Some of the examples cited are failed negotiation between president JFK and Soviet Union for a comprehensive ban on nuclear testing.

In this strategy both the parties tries to win and they do not look at the interests of both. This strategy could lead to strained relationship, increased time to complete an agreement and makes the process highly impossible when more than two parties are involved. Thus authors recommend against the use of positional bargaining. They also introduce the difference between soft and hard bargaining. Playing the soft game gives undue advantage to someone who is playing the hard game.

Alternative to Positional Bargaining Strategy

Which game should we play – Soft or Hard? Answer to the question is neither. Try changing the game. Authors are introducing an alternative to the positional bargaining strategy which is a method of negotiation explicit designed to produce wise outcomes efficiently and amicably. This is called “principled negotiation” or “negotiation on the merits”. It defines the straight forward negotiation which can be used under any circumstances. Following points deals with the basic elements of negotiation, and suggests what you should do about it.

ü People: Separate the people from the problem

ü Interest: Focus on interests and not positions

ü Options: Generate a variety of options before deciding what to do

ü Criteria: Insist that the result be based on some objective standard

Separate the people from the Problem

In this chapter authors explain why separating the people from the problem is rather important. Human beings are an emotional package. They react to circumstances differently. This human aspect can be either helpful or disaster for the negotiating outcome. It is important to separate the relationship aspect from the substance. It is important to understand what the other side thinks, their perception and most importantly putting yourself in their shoes. Try to break the perceptions by acting inconsistently with the perceptions. For e.g. In 1977 Egypt’s president’s visit to Jerusalem was a great example of such act. Emotions plays a critical role in the negotiation process, it is critical to understand the emotions of both the side and react accordingly. Ensure that communication process is done carefully. Without proper communication the entire process of negotiation could be in question.

Focus on Interests, Not on Positions

Fundamental problem in negotiation does not lie in conflicting position, instead it is in the negotiators needs, desires, concerns and fears. Understanding the parties interest would help to come up with an amicable solution. Interests motivate people; they are the silent movers behind the hubbub of positions.

Behind each opposition conflict there lays sharable, compatible and conflicting interests. Authors explain this theory using a real estate rental analogy. Understanding the interests would open up the options available for negotiating a conflict. Clearly communicating the interests would help the opposite party look at things as you see. Acknowledge the interests of others as problems; try to look forward and do not bring past issues when evaluating a future or present deal, be concrete but flexible. Finally authors ask one to be soft on the people but hard on the problem.

Invent Options for Mutual Gains

Many negotiations involve four major obstacles that prevent identifying the available options. They are premature judgment, trying to search for a single answer, assumption of a fixed pie and finally thinking that “solving their problem is their problem”. To invent creative options authors prescribe the following strategies. Separate the act of inventing options from the act of judging them; To broaden the options at the table rather than looking at a single answer; To search for mutual gains and finally to invent ways of making their decisions easy.

Insist on Using Objective Criteria

This chapter focuses on how to create a solution based on principles and doesn’t base on people’s mettle. Principled negotiation produces wise agreements amicably and efficiently. Chapter goes in detailing the process of developing objective criteria, and how one can use them in negotiating. Following standards should be used as and when it is available; Market value, precedent, scientific judgment, professional standards, government regulations, moral standards, equal treatment, tradition, reciprocity and costs.

In addition authors provide three ways to use the objective criteria and procedures. Frame each issue as a joint search for objective criteria, Reason and be open to reason on which standard is appropriate, and never yield to pressure but only to principle.

What if They Are More Powerful?

In this chapter authors introduce a concept named BATNA – (Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement). It is important to understand the concept of bargaining power. More the bargaining power more leverage does one side have. It doesn’t matter you talk about interests, options and standards if the other side has a stronger bargaining power. BATNA is the standard against which any proposed agreement should be measured. Having a good BATNA would help negotiating on merits instead of position. Having a good BATNA provides an easy means to walk away and highly improves the present negotiating situation.

What if They Won’t Play?

If the opposing side doesn’t want to talk about standards, interests or even merits and doesn’t want to play the game then following the three basic approaches would help the opponents focus on the merits. First step focuses on what should do and second step focuses on what others may do, this counters the basic moves of positional bargaining and directs their attention towards the merits, this strategy is called negotiation jujitsu. Final step involves what the third party can do, if first two options doesn’t work try involving a third party who is trained to focus on interests, standards and criteria.

What if They Use Dirty Tricks?

Principle negotiation is great, but what happens when the opposite party tries to derail you or worse case he tries to increase the demand at the verge of an agreement. This chapter looks means by which we can counter the opponent by applying four principles of following the interests, standards, options and criteria. It is important to be able to understand the psychological warfare and knowing the tricks one might have up their sleeve.

Conclusion

Authors conclude by saying negotiation is not about winning but it is about how you capture the ultimate price which is winning on merits. Principled negotiation will produce over the long run substantive outcomes as good as or better than you are likely to obtain using any other negotiation strategy.

Mission Accomplished

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 12:59:00 +0000

I have been waiting to post this message since May. Finally I got some time to post my final blog. I received my MBA on May 17th 2008. 16 months of hard work has paid off.

This blog was originally started to capture experiences at Suffolk. As I have graduated from Suffolk, I thought I will complete this blog trail and start a new blog. For all my blog readers, Thank You for taking your precious time to see what I am up to. It has been a great journey with so many of my cohorts, teachers and other school and country friends !

Financial Research Survey

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 02:13:00 +0000

I am currently in the process of conducting a research survey. Please take some time to complete the following survey.

Click Here to take the survey

Dialog on Leadership: Arie de Geus Interview

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 03:09:00 +0000

Dialog on Leadership: Arie de Geus Interview

This is a great interview from Arie De Geus a line manager with Royal Dutch Shell, his experiences related to successful living company. Arie goes through several aspects of organization behavior. More importantly he talks about The Living Company. Following is the content of the interview.

I. What Is Planning For?
II. Decision-Making As Learning
III. Meeting with Jay Forrester and Peter Senge at MIT
IV. What [Entity] Is Making Organizational Decisions?
V. The Living Company: Metaphor Or Reality?
VI. Cellular Structures
VII. Every Institution is a Living System
VIII. Every Startup Is The Birth Of A New Being
IX. The Absorption Level Of Immune Systems
X. Questions For Future Research

Following is an excerpt from the http://www.DialogOnLeadership.org Website.

XI. Reflection

During the 1980s, Arie de Geus proposed to conceive of planning and decision-making as a learning process. During the 1990s, he enhanced this key proposition with the notion of seeing companies as a living system. Every institution, claims de Geus, is a living system. The implications of this perspective include a different role of profit and purpose in which we’re beginning to realize that "profit for commercial institutions is the same as oxygen is for humans"; as well as a "limited absorption capacity" of organizational immune systems that explains the extraordinary high failure rate of mega-mergers among global companies, which because of their enormous size exceed the natural absorption capacity of the system.

I left the conversation with de Geus with two questions: One, when we are living and working in our institutions, how can we relate to the "living being" de Geus talks about and that is embodied through the way we collectively enact the organizations in which we participate?

Two, what is the nature of the relationship between individual human beings and the larger organizational whole? I was struck by hearing de Geus characterize the relationship between individual and whole (organization) in a strictly hierarchical manner: "Stern used to say that the hierarchy is you have the human being, and then you have the family, and then you have the village community, and then you have das Volk, and you have a clear hierarchy." In this view, "the whole is something separate from the parts." This view differed from what science philosopher Henri Bortoft and the Japanese philosopher Ryosoke Ohashi had told me in their interviews (see conversations with Bortoft and Ohashi). In their view, you cannot separate the whole from the parts, for the whole presences itself in the parts. Accordingly, the parts are not determined by the whole in which they exist. They are the locus in which the whole is enhanced, contradicted, or even transformed by them, or all of the above. So, I guess the deeper question I am trying to articulate here concerns the the differences between biological and social systems.

I recently asked biologist Humberto Maturana, the author of the theory of autopoietic systems, about his view on the numerous recent approaches to applying his biological theory to the realm of social systems. His response: "If social systems are autopoietic, I do not want to live in them." "Why not?" I asked. "Because in autopoietic systems the part is totally determined by the whole in order to reproduce certain functions of the larger system. Its like Orwell’s 1984. It’s the end of freedom and choice in social systems." Thus, there seem to be two different notions of the whole-part relationship in social systems. The first one is what Maturana calls the 1984 version of society: the part (individuum) is determined by the whole. The second notion is closer to what Ohashi and Bortoft suggested in their interviews: that the individuum is not determined by the whole but rather conceived of as a place in which an emerging new whole can come into being. The first whole, I would call the traditional [and often oppressive whole] of social systems. The second whole belongs to an emerging social art, which yet needs to be developed and created in the years to come. I did not have the time to ask de Geus where he would position himself on that spectrum. I heard him describing elements of both notions outlined above.

XII. Bio

Arie de Geus joined Royal Dutch/Shell in 1951 and remained with the company for 38 years. He worked in Turkey, Belgium, and Brazil before returning to the United Kingdom in 1979. Arie assumed regional responsibility for Shell's businesses in Africa and South Asia and then, in 1981, became coordinator for Group Planning. During his last 10 years at Shell, Arie became increasingly interested in the nature of large corporations, their decision-making processes, and the management of change and he is widely credited with originating the concept of the learning organization.

Since his retirement from Shell in 1989, Arie has headed an advisory group to the World Bank and consults with government and private institutions. He is a visiting fellow at London Business School, and a board member of the Nijenrode Learning Centre in the Netherlands. Arie is also the author of the award-winning bestseller, The Living Company(1997).

Liquidity Trap

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Sat, 16 Feb 2008 03:47:00 +0000

There has been considerable speculation that lowering interest rate would help U.S. avoid recession. I have been having my doubts, this recession has been triggered by housing bubble which has been spread very widely. It has shown its impact on the broad spectrum of the market - from main street to wall street everyone is being impacted.

I read this following quote from Bob Campbell of the San Diego Real Estate Timing newsletter on liquidity trap.

"When an asset like real estate becomes overvalued, even if you drop interest rates to zero, you can't force consumers to borrow more, because they've already borrowed too much. Nor can you force lenders to lend, because they're already puking on 'bad paper.' It's called a liquidity trap." - Bob Campbell

Multiplier Theory & Economic Stimulus Package

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Wed, 30 Jan 2008 15:55:00 +0000

The US House of Representatives approved an economic stimulus package Tuesday worth an estimated 150 billion dollars potentially to avoid recession. Is this a right move?

From the knowledge I gained from macroeconomic studies, I started assessing the various tools Federal administrators can use in such a grim situation as a recession. Reduce the interest rate by working through the monetary policies. Government in turn can spur growth by spending more and giving more tax breaks. Key assumption is people will spend the money they receive as tax breaks or stimulus package checks.

In the following link Jason Furman, a advisor to President Clinton, and author-economist Steven E. Landsburg discuss the U.S. economy and the recently announced stimulus package.They look at how Keynesian theory of managing fiscal policy and monetary policy to prevent an economy from going in to recession.

I found a fantastic article on a total contradiction with Keynes Multiplier Theory. I am sure you will love this article as much as i did.

How well do you know your world

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Thu, 27 Dec 2007 22:54:00 +0000

Do you think you know every country in the world and their location? Take this challenge from Travelpod.com

Visit to Washington

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Tue, 25 Dec 2007 18:16:00 +0000

I had an excellent opportunity to visit Washington as part of a seminar series. The core objective of the seminar is to inculcate an understanding of how political system functions and its impact on business. Our cohort comprises of executives, small business owners and entrepreneurs, for whom this seminar served as an foundation to understand the role of politics and how to make an impact to benefit their businesses.

This seminar was conducted by the Washington Campus - A consortium of 16 major university business schools who are committed to graduate business students and corporate executives. Following where some of the key topics covered by various political members. They included former treasury secretary, staff of white house, political speaker, lobbyist, OMB staff, campaign managers and others.

Decision Making in Washington
Congressional Committees
Political Appointees
Structure of the Federal Courts
The Role of Lobbyists and Interest Groups
The Business/Government Interface
The Political Landscape
The Organization of the White House
Congress: A Representative's Perspective
The Federal Regulatory Process
The Future of the US Economy
The Role of the Media
US Foreign Policy

Some of the important moment from this seminar is meeting Congressmen Christopher Shays. He was an amazing speaker who was very genuine and down to earth.

Following are the key topics discussed in some of our sessions.

1. Immigration
2. Presidential Election 08
3. Macro Economics
4. Foreign Policy

To cap of the session we had a computer simulation in to the life of a congressmen after he/she gets elected. This was a great learning exercise, believe me its not easy to be a politician. There is no way you can satisfy everyone and still win.
But our politician still accomplish the unthinkable.

Overall A+ Seminar

Mark of a Leader

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Fri, 09 Nov 2007 03:21:00 +0000

How do you identify a true leader? What potential does a leader need to possess to inspire and lead a team of talented followers? As part of an organization behavior school research work, I stumbled upon a book signing video from Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett Packard and famously known for merging HP with Compaq.

I was very inspired by her thought process, understanding of people, faces of fear, concept of change and her self integrity. Her answers to the questions where straight from her heart.

Welcome Hulu - A Step ahead of YouTube

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Wed, 31 Oct 2007 03:29:00 +0000

Have you ever wondered could there be a competitor to 100 million traffic monster YouTube? Guess what, NBC and News Corp has partnered to create a new video sharing site named Hulu. You can visit them at www.hulu.com. This is going to be a great competition between the media giants and Internet giants. Ultimate benefactors are consumers.

Looking at the first video hosted by hulu looks like it's in for a long ride. It is taking head on the core weaknesses of YouTube. Low resolution, poor quality videos are replaced with high resolution great quality pics. Because the videos are supported by NBC you don't have to worry about legitimacy of the content.

Here is a sample of NBC's hit TV show The Office from the hulu website. Enjoy...

Currently the website access is restricted to invitation only. You can sign up here to recieve your invitation.

Great Predictions of our Century

noreply@blogger.com (Mariswaran) — Wed, 31 Oct 2007 00:50:00 +0000

Legendary chairman of IBM Mr.Thomas Watson predicted the following in 1943.

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."

What a great prediction. We are currently doing a class on Organizational Behavior and our professor Peter Murphy is a great source of inspiration. He uses various Harvard Business Reviews, class discussion, relevant quotes to keep our cohort thinking about OB concepts.

I found a great website which has various quotes

Some of the great quotes are listed here...

"640K ought to be enough for anybody." -- Attributed to Bill Gates, 1981, but believed to be an urban legend.

"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" -- H. M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.

"We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." -- Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.

"It will be years -- not in my time -- before a woman will become Prime Minister." -- Margaret Thatcher, 1974.

"Ours has been the first, and doubtless to be the last, to visit this profitless locality." -- Lt. Joseph Ives, after visiting the Grand Canyon in 1861.

You can go to this website to check on some of the bad predictions of our century

My EMBA Journey

First blog from iPod touch

Kodak Brand Exploratory Report

Introduction

Note of caution

Respondent description

Interview process

Interview environment

Interview Techniques

A look at the response

A look at the response – Major Areas of Questioning

A look at the response – Kodak Printers

Does the above response impact Kodak Marketing Strategy

Appendix

Brand Association Questions: (Exhibit A)

Major Areas for Questioning: ( Exhibit B)

Kodak Brand Audit Presentation

Kodak Brand Audit Report

Brand Inventory Report - Introduction

Kodak Cameras

Kodak Printers

Kodak Cameras Vs HP Cameras

Kodak Printers Vs HP Printers

Kodak Marketing Efforts

Kodak in the News

Summary

Appendix

Barack Obama - Commemorative Time Issue

Google Flu Trends

Registry of Economics Blogs

Google Mashups

Role of United States in Saving Mother Earth

Executive Summary

U.S. Local Leaders & Climate Change

INDIAN COMPANIES IN POLAND - PROJECT REPORT

Poland Economic Climate

Indian Companies in Poland

Poland Visit Executive Summary

Financial Research Survey Results

Financial Information Portal Research Survey Report

Prediction for the decade

Book Review - Getting Past No

Getting To Yes – Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In

Book Review - Getting To Yes

Mission Accomplished

Financial Research Survey

Dialog on Leadership: Arie de Geus Interview

Liquidity Trap

Multiplier Theory & Economic Stimulus Package

How well do you know your world

Visit to Washington

Mark of a Leader

Welcome Hulu - A Step ahead of YouTube

Great Predictions of our Century