My Forex Blog

2012 years of dragon

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 20:38:00 +0000

2012

sungguh lama x update blog ni...aku admit aku sibuk dan buat buat sibuk..padahal aku ni malas nak berblogging dan update pasal forex..ntah la maybe aku ni x suka sangat nak menulis nak membebel...so mungkin lepas ni keje kopi pes ( copy paste ) or aku just upload gambar entry dan sedikit penerangan utk memudah kan aku mengkaji balik di masa depan kesilapan aku dalam trading...

cheer...

Chart analysis

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Wed, 27 Oct 2010 11:55:00 +0000

A price chart is a sequence of prices plotted over a specific time frame. In statistical terms, charts are referred to as time series plots.

Types of price charts

There are three types of charts:

Line (Fig.1)
Bars (Fig.2)
Candlesticks (Fig.3)

2 and 3 give more detailed information such as the open, close, low and high over a specific time frame.

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Support and resistance

The support and resistance line/level is a certain level reaching which the price cannot fall or move higher, respectively. In any market with a stable trading range prices will meet resistance and support levels. In other words, when the price reaches a certain level, the bulls or bears begin aggressive buying or selling, because they do not agree to any level, and at some point supply and demand in the market are equal, thus forming resistance or support lines. However, if there is an upward or downward breakout of a trading range, the previous support level becomes the level of resistance (Fig. 4), and the level of resistance, on the contrary, becomes the level of support (Fig. 5).

Fig.4

Fig.5

In addition to trend lines, the low and high can serve as support and resistance levels (Fig. 6 and Fig.7). However, the previous high or low does not mean that it is the level from which the price will leap back. They tell us that when price moves close to them, it may meet the level of support or resistance near the low or high because the market remembers that there was parity between the bulls and bears at this level, and when the price is close to the level of support all start buying, and when approaching the level of resistance, on the contrary, start selling. A breakout of the previous minimum or maximum can be considered as a signal to further fall or increase in prices.

Fig.6

Fig.7

The criterion for a breakout of support and resistance levels can be a chain of 2-3 closures below or above these levels, respectively, as common breakout still did not mean anything (Fig.8). The above criterion is confirmation of a temporary duration. There are several approaches to definition of criteria: breakout depth, price values coming out of support or resistance levels.

Fig.8

Bars (Fig.9), candlesticks (Fig.10), the lows (Fig.11) and highs (Fig.12) can also serve as support or resistance lines.

Fig.9

Fig.10

Fig.11

Fig.12

Trend

Trend is an upward or downward tendency which is characterized by a strict consequence of higher maximums and minimums, in case of upward tendency, and lower minimums and maximums, in case of downward tendency. An uptrend is considered not to be broken till the previous high or low is not broken through. In other words, the next high or low is lower than the previous one. It is the necessary criterion for an upward tendency. A downtrend is considered not to be broken till the previous low or high is not broken through.

Fig.13

Fig.14

Trading range

Unlike a trend, a trading range represents a horizontal tendency in which a sequence of the highs and lows are almost in the same level. It also includes price fluctuations over long-lasted period of time. A trading range is considered to be broken if its upper or low boundary has been broken through. (Fig.15)

Exness

George Soros warns China of global 'currency war'

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Sun, 10 Oct 2010 13:11:00 +0000

George Soros has warned that a global “currency war” pitting China versus the rest of the world could lead to the collapse of the world economy.

The billionaire currency investor criticised China for deliberately keeping the yuan - its currency - low in order to keep exports cheap, which is hurting US competitors.

Mr Soros, the hedge fund manager best known as the man who broke the Bank of England” after he made a billion betting against the value of Sterling on Black Wednesday in 1992, said the China had created a “lopsided currency” system.

He criticised China for deliberately keeping the yuan - its currency - low in order to keep exports cheap, which is hurting US competitors.

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noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Mon, 27 Sep 2010 13:24:00 +0000

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Refresh the 2008 QE

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Wed, 22 Sep 2010 11:12:00 +0000

Let’s look back to the market’s reaction to the Fed’s December 2008 statement that opened the door for QE 1.0.

Bernanke announced the Fed was considering QE on December 1,2008. EUR/USD closed at 1.2720 that day. The Fed announced officially that it would focus its future monetary policy on the size of the Fed’s balance sheet (IE buying assets or QE). EUR/USD closed at 1.4048 that day. It peaked at 1.4720 two days later.

After that, EUR/USD eased back to 1.2457 lows in early March before beginning to rise again. (The lows coincided with the release of the US bank stress tests). $1.7 bln of QE was announced at the March 18 meeting. EUR/USD jumped to from 1.30 to almost 1.35 that day and began a trend that ended in late November at 1.5145.

If we follow a similar pattern as last time, we should rally a few more days before retrenching into the November FOMC we a rally would resume, should history repeat itself.

Well-Known Bear: Sell This Breakout!

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Tue, 21 Sep 2010 14:37:00 +0000

By Matt Phillips

Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International, a newsletter publisher and data service in Gainesville, Ga., is a well-known bear. And perhaps unsurprisingly, he’s not been swayed by the recent rally in stocks. He appeared on Yahoo’s Tech Ticker Monday.

As The Journal’s Jason Zweig wrote back in July, Prechter predicted that the Dow would fall below 1000 within the next six years. Whoa. Zweig wrote:

Mr. Prechter is a technical analyst who studies the past price performance of the markets for clues to the future. He also believes that investors move in and out of the market on predictable waves of optimism and pessimism. “Because the mania [the bull markets of 1982 to 1999 and 2003 to 2007] was so terrific,” he told me this week, “it will be followed by a negative trend in social mood that will lead to a complete retracement.” That would put the Dow back to its levels in 1982, below 1000.

“In a deflationary environment, the last thing you want is to own any financial asset,” Mr. Prechter added. “If you stay out of stocks, real estate, gold and other commodities, which will all come down together, then you can preserve your purchasing power [in cash] for the next great buying opportunity.” He wouldn’t tell me what, if anything, he is selling short; he said only that he is “cash laden” with Treasury bills and Swiss money-market instruments.

But wouldn’t it be highly unusual for stocks to stagnate for 11 years and then collapse by 90%? “Definitely,” Mr. Prechter told me. “It’s very rare.” But, he points out, it is also very rare for the stock market to fall 50% and end up overvalued, as he says it is now. Still, he says, “I’m taking a big risk” making such a forecast.

Get a jump on those fancy-pants analysts

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Tue, 21 Sep 2010 14:32:00 +0000

Bank-bank pelaburan semua mengeluarkan perbandingan dari kenyataan FOMC terakhir dan yang terkini. Berikut adalah kenyataan dari pertemuan terakhir supaya anda boleh mendapatkan beberapa perasaan di mana mereka cenderung tweak kenyataan itu.

A downgrade ke prospek ekonomi di perenggan kepalan diharapkan sementara isyarat lebih kuat dari keinginan untuk bertindak untuk mengurangkan lebih banyak mungkin dalam perenggan terakhir.
Berita untuk surat khabar

Tarikh keluaran: 10 Ogos 2010
Untuk diedarkan akan

Maklumat yang diterima sejak Jawatankuasa Pasar Terbuka Persekutuan bertemu pada bulan Jun menunjukkan bahawa langkah pemulihan dalam output dan kesempatan kerja telah melambat dalam beberapa bulan terakhir. Pengeluaran rumah tangga meningkat secara berperingkat, namun tetap dibatasi oleh kadar pengangguran yang tinggi, pertumbuhan pendapatan sederhana, kekayaan perumahan yang lebih rendah, dan kredit ketat. Perniagaan pengeluaran pada peralatan dan perisian meningkat, namun pelaburan dalam struktur nonresidensial terus menjadi lemah dan pengusaha tetap enggan untuk menambah gaji. Perumahan bermula tetap pada tahap depresi. Kredit perbankan terus kontrak. Meskipun demikian, Jawatankuasa menjangka kembali secara berperingkat ke tahap yang lebih tinggi dari pemanfaatan sumber daya dalam konteks kestabilan harga, walaupun langkah pemulihan ekonomi mungkin akan lebih mudah dalam jangka dekat daripada telah diantisipasi.

Ukuran inflasi yang mendasarinya telah cenderung terus rendah dalam suku ini dan, dengan sumber daya yang substansial slack terus menahan tekanan kos dan ekspektasi inflasi jangka panjang yang stabil, inflasi mungkin ditundukkan untuk masa beberapa.

Jawatankuasa akan menjaga kisaran target untuk tingkat dana persekutuan pada 0 ke 1 / 4 peratus dan terus menjangka bahawa keadaan ekonomi, termasuk rendahnya tingkat pemanfaatan sumber daya, trend inflasi, dan ekspektasi inflasi yang stabil, kemungkinan untuk memastikan tahap yang sangat rendah dari tingkat dana persekutuan untuk jangka masa yang dipanjangkan.

Untuk membantu menyokong pemulihan ekonomi dalam konteks kestabilan harga, Jawatankuasa akan tetap konstan pemilikan Federal Reserve kesan pada peringkat saat ini mereka dengan melabur kembali bayaran hutang pokok dari instansi dan lembaga kesan beragun aset pada jangka panjang Treasury securities.1 The Jawatankuasa akan terus berguling pemilikan Federal Reserve kesan Treasury pada saat jatuh tempo.

Jawatankuasa akan terus memantau prospek perkembangan ekonomi dan kewangan dan akan menggunakan alat dasar yang diperlukan untuk mempromosikan pemulihan ekonomi dan kestabilan harga.

The Butterfly Pattern

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Fri, 17 Sep 2010 17:41:00 +0000

What is a butterfly pattern?

Contains an ABCD pattern preceded by a swing high or low (XA)

Reflects convergence of Fibonacci extension ratios

Point D at extensions of BC and XA

Formed by two connecting, symmetrical triangles

Why is the Butterfly pattern important?

Convergence of Fibonacci extension ratios increase probability of future support/resistance, thus increasing odds of temporary market reversal

Typically provides more favorable risk/reward ratios

Pattern is found at significant tops and bottoms

Pattern failure may indicate strong continuation move

How do I find a Butterfly pattern?

Butterfly patterns are similar to Gartley patterns in that they resemble a skewed “W” or "M" shape on a price chart. However, a butterfly pattern completes at the convergence of 2 separate Fibonacci extension levels whereas the Gartley completes at the convergence of a Fibonacci retracement and extension.

The beauty of the butterfly lies in its symmetry between the two connecting triangles at point B. As with all geometric patterns, a buy or sell signal occurs as the pattern completes at point D.

Bullish Butterfly Pattern Rules (buy at point D)

1. Swing down from A-to-D is 127.2% or 161.8% extension of XA

a. D must be below X

2. Valid ABCD must be observed in extension move (AD)

3. Additional confirmation attained when time and price are in proportion

a. Time of XAB and BCD triangles ideally "equal," but BCD may fall within 61.8%-161.8%

4. Move beyond 161.8% negates the pattern

a. May indicate strong continuation move in progress

Bearish Butterfly Pattern Rules (sell at point D)

1. Swing up from A-to-D is 127.2% or 161.8% extension of XA

a. D must be above X

2. Valid ABCD must be observed in extension move (AD)

3. Additional confirmation attained when time and price are in proportion

a. Time of XAB and BCD triangles ideally "equal," but BCD may fall within 61.8%-161.8%

4. Move beyond 161.8% negates the pattern

a. May indicate strong continuation move

Treasuries, Irish Default Swaps Rise on Debt Woes; Euro Slips

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Fri, 17 Sep 2010 14:36:00 +0000

Treasuries rose while the cost to protect Irish debt surged to a record on concern about European government debt levels and an unexpected drop in American consumer confidence. U.S. stocks fluctuated and the euro fell.

Ten-year Treasury notes climbed, pushing the yield down 3 basis points to 2.73 percent at 11:41 a.m. in New York. Costs to protect Irish government debt from default and the yield premium investors demand to own the nation’s 10-year bonds instead of benchmark German bunds both reached all-time highs. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell less than 0.1 percent to 1,124.37, wiping out a gain of as much as 0.6 percent. The euro weakened from a five-week high against the yen.

Speculation that Ireland and Portugal will need outside assistance to fund budget deficits fueled concern that the European debt crisis is deepening. European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said today that the financial crisis is “still with us.”

“The signals are still mixed,” said John Carey, Boston- based money-manager at Pioneer Investment Management, which oversees about $230 billion. “People and companies perhaps are not as confident as they should be. There are remaining issues in Europe. We’re not in a double dip recession, but the recovery is fragile.”

Treasuries Extend Gains

Treasuries extended gains after confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly fell in September to a one-year low. The yield on the 10-year Irish bond surged 29 basis points to 6.32 percent in London. The spread with bunds widened to as much as 387 basis points, or 3.87 percentage points, the most on record, according to Bloomberg generic data.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment dropped to 66.6 following a reading of 68.9 in August, the group said today. Economists forecast the measure would rise to 70, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.

The cost of living in the U.S. climbed in August for a second month as energy and food prices increased, while other goods and services showed little change. The consumer-price index rose 0.3 percent for a second month, figures from the Labor Department showed. Excluding food and fuel costs, the so- called core rate was unchanged.

Technology Earnings

Losses in U.S. equities were tempered by gains in Oracle Corp., leading a gauge of software companies to a 0.7 percent advance. Oracle jumped 6.3 percent after its first quarter earnings and sales forecast exceeded analysts’ estimates.

Research In Motion Ltd. reported second-quarter revenue and profit that beat analysts’ estimates on rising demand for phones that can access the Web and manage e-mail. Oracle also beat estimates as sales of database software and Sun Microsystems Inc. server computers helped it capitalize on a recovery in information-technology spending.

U.S. stock swings will likely be stronger today as the expiration of futures and options on stocks and equity indexes adds to market volatility, said Dave Lutz, managing director of equity trading at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in Baltimore. The process known as quadruple witching occurs every three months.

“It’s encouraging to see technology companies showing positive results,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Chicago-based Harris Private Bank, which oversees $55 billion. “They have a fair amount of cash and healthy balance sheets,” he said. “The European debt situation is a protracted problem. It’s going to take years to move past. Unfortunately, the market moves in minutes. It ends up being a frustrating match.”

Irish Financing Concerns

Ireland isn’t facing difficulty raising funds, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said today, seeking to quell speculation that the country may need financial aid from outside sources. Barclays Plc said in a note to investors yesterday that the country may need to accept external assistance if there are additional financial-sector losses or the economy worsens.

Portugal may have to seek aid from the International Monetary Fund to address the problems of external financing, Diario de Noticias reported on its Web site, citing three former finance ministers Eduardo Catroga, Medina Carreira and Miguel Beleza.

The euro weakened against 14 of 16 of its most-traded peers, falling 0.2 percent to 111.93 yen, after appreciating to as strong as 112.98 yen. The common European currency slipped to $1.3048 after climbing to $1.3159, the highest level since Aug. 11.

China’s yuan was set for its biggest weekly advance in 28 months on speculation a faster pace of appreciation will be tolerated after U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner called for “significant” gains. The central bank set the reference rate at 6.7172 per dollar today, the strongest level since July 2005.

Chinese IPO

SouFun Holdings Ltd., the operator of China’s biggest real- estate website, jumped as much as 63 percent after raising $125 million in this month’s first U.S. initial public offering.

The company that controls almost half of China’s online real-estate advertising market was valued about 14.3 times earnings, or 14 percent less than the average of six Internet portals and property information providers, data compiled by Independent International Investment Research Plc and Bloomberg show.

European shares wiped out gains, with the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index falling 0.1 percent, erasing an earlier 1.1 percent rally. Crucell NV soared 56 percent after Johnson & Johnson said it planned to offer 1.75 billion euros ($2.3 billion) to take full control of the vaccine maker. A total of $1.43 trillion of deals has been announced around the world so far this year, up from $1.25 trillion for the same period last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

European Creditworthiness

Corporate creditworthiness in Europe is the best ever compared with governments, credit-default swap prices show, as companies cut debt while governments struggle with budget deficits.

The difference between the Markit iTraxx Europe Index of corporate credit-default swaps and the Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of contracts tied to government debt widened 1 basis point to a record 49, according to data from CMA and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Corn jumped 2.2 percent to $5.07 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, rising above $5 for the first time in almost two years, on concern that falling U.S. yields and higher demand from importers will erode supplies in the world’s largest exporter. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. also raised its three-month forecast for the grain. Tyson Foods Inc. and Smithfield Foods Inc. both declined at least 2.8 percent on speculation feed costs will increase.

Gold futures climbed as much as 0.8 percent to a record $1,284.40 an ounce and silver rose to within 1 cent of a 30-year high. Copper rose 0.5 percent in New York. October crude oil slipped 1.2 percent to $73.69 a barrel in New York.

AUD Reverse Find The GAP?

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Fri, 17 Sep 2010 14:36:00 +0000

Cuba lihat chart ini...tak tahu la selalu sahaja trading berlawanan arah..kali ini kerana GAP..hahaha
jika minggu ni tak ttp stick pada plan ni je sampai close GAP next week dan cari setup baru kemudian pula..

Ucad sudah pun ttp GAP

SETUP CHART with simple trade

SEE after that...News USD mempercepatkan lagi di tambah dengan kejatuhan nilai CRUDE di pasaran petang tadi..

Euro Will End Long Rally?

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Fri, 17 Sep 2010 14:22:00 +0000

Denial is not a river in Egypt, it’s the Forex Word of the Day!

The IMF has denied that Ireland needs funding, Ireland has denied it needs funding…All we need now is for Bono to deny that Ireland needs funding…

No matter, EUR/USD is back under pressure as Mersch suggests there is no end in sight for ECB being the primary source of bank funding in the foreseeable future…EUR/USD trades at 1.3055 in very choppy trade.

Euro Will End Long Rally?

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Fri, 17 Sep 2010 14:22:00 +0000

Denial is not a river in Egypt, it’s the Forex Word of the Day!

The IMF has denied that Ireland needs funding, Ireland has denied it needs funding…All we need now is for Bono to deny that Ireland needs funding…

Long Bars Review

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Fri, 17 Sep 2010 13:49:00 +0000

Geometric pattern recognition is a methodology that attempts to find points of significant support or resistance. In other words, we are looking for a reversal in price action. If the price is falling, we are looking for it to begin to rise at the point we suggesting going long. If the price is rising, we are looking for it it to fall at the point we suggesting going short.

Since we are looking for reversals, we want to enter our trades with as little momentum as possible. The more momentum a currency pair has, the more force it requires to reverse. Long bars are simply an indication that there is a lot of momentum or force that will have to be reversed at the entry point. In turn, long bars near the entry of the trade decrease the probability that the trade will reverse as the pattern suggests. is relatively longer than a 100 pip bar on the GBP/CHF. Additionally, each pattern is different. Some patterns are much smaller than others, so it is difficult to put a "pip" value on a long bar. Even if we defined a long bar as a percentage of the CD leg, this could vary whether we were viewing the pattern on a 30 minute chart or a 2 hour chart.

So how do we determine long bars? If CD is one very long bar, that one is obvious. However, sometimes long bars are more subjective. The easiest way to tell is to look at the price symmetry. A quick way to determine asymmetry is if the CD leg has a much steeper slope than AB. This indicates CD moved more rapidly than AB, and therefore CD likely has more momentum than AB. If CD completes before the hypothetical D (as in this chart), it is likely their are long bars. If AB and CD have approximately the same slope, we call this a "symmetrical" pattern. Also, when taking a trade, we want to look for deceleration into the entry, not acceleration. Therefore, if there is a long bar at the beginning of the CD leg, but the pair decelerates so that the overall slope of CD is roughly equal to AB, the trade is probably okay to take.

The moral of the story is that if it looks like the pair is accelerating into the entry or their are clear long bars, simply wait for the next trade. The market provides a never ending stream of trading opportunities. Even if you miss one that would have been profitable, it is not the end of the world because there will be more than enough trades in the future.

Defaulting on Anglo debts now on agenda

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Fri, 17 Sep 2010 12:17:00 +0000

Ini adalah masa ekonomi putus asa. Jadi putus asa bahawa subjek Ireland default pada bank dan hutang berdaulat sekarang pembicaraan rutin antara para ahli akademik, bankir dan ekonomi.

Namun, sampai saat ini, seperti idea jarang dihiburkan oleh para ahli politik senior, tapi dalam sebuah langkah mengejutkan terakhir pemimpin Parti Buruh, Eamon Gilmore, datang sangat dekat dengan menyarankan seperti tindakan ketika ia berbicara tentang Kerajaan "perundingan ''dengan pemegang saham dalam Anglo Ireland Bank.

Sementara Bapak Gilmore trenchantly membantah pendekatan seperti bererti lalai, dia pasti datang sangat dekat dengan posisi itu. Menurut neraca terkini yang diterbitkan untuk Anglo Ireland Bank, pemegang saham telah 16.5bn € dilaburkan di bank, sementara pelabur lain telah 2.4bn € melabur di bon subordinasi lebih berisiko pada Anglo.

Sementara ada hampir kesepakatan bulat sekarang bahawa pemegang bon subordinasi harus berupa tidak diberikan atau sangat sedikit oleh Negara Ireland, isu yang lebih mendesak adalah apakah Ireland, yang kini mempunyai Anglo, harus Welch atas kewajipan kepada pemegang hutang senior, kebanyakan daripada mereka Jerman aset, Inggeris dan Perancis dan dana pensiun.

Mr Gilmore mengatakan dia tidak mengesyorkan default atas hutang, tapi justru menyarankan rundingan bermula dengan pemegang. saran ini mempunyai cincin populis untuk itu, karena selama pemegang bon tidak menyerap kerugian, berarti semua kerugian Anglo diserap oleh pembayar cukai Ireland sebagai gantinya.

Tapi masalah Mr Gilmore dan kekurangan dalam hujahnya adalah kurangnya detail tentang cara pendekatan seperti itu akan bekerja. Agaknya perundingan akan ditujukan untuk memaksa beberapa kerugian pemegang bon, jika tidak akan ada titik dalam perbualan tersebut.

Masalahnya ialah bahawa secara teknikal Anglo akan lalai terhadap hutang-hutangnya jika cuba untuk mendapatkan pemegang obligasi untuk menerima sesuatu yang kurang dari apa yang mereka berhutang.

Tentu saja, Bapak Gilmore (dan kedudukannya mendapat beberapa sokongan daripada Barclays semalam) mempunyai beberapa pilihan. Satu adalah hanya tekan untuk mengurangkan jumlah hutang kepada pemegang saham, membolehkan Anglo untuk mendapatkan buku dari perlu membayar bunga kurang dari awalnya disepakati.

Pendekatan kedua, satu diperjuangkan oleh 'Financial Times', adalah untuk memberitahu pemegang saham anda berniat untuk swap obligasi mereka untuk saham Anglo.

Ini secara berkesan akan meninggalkan bank, yang merupakan detak jantung dari insolvensi teknikal, di tangan mereka. Hal ini dikenali sebagai swap debt-for-equity dan sangat umum dalam kemerosotan ketika syarikat mengalami masalah. Secara teknikal juga dikenali sebagai tawaran pertukaran tertekan. Pendekatan ini boleh diambil, tapi sekali lagi ia datang dengan risiko signifikan yang perlu diakui oleh komentator politik seperti Gilmore dan lain-lain menekan untuk tindakan ini.

Masalah dengan idea ini adalah bahawa tidak ada cara Anglo Ireland Bank bernilai € 16.5bn saat ini. Jadi jika para pemegang bon swap semua obligasi mereka untuk saham Anglo mereka akan menetap kurang dari nilai nominal. Ini adalah default selektif.

Tentu saja, bahaya besar tidak apa yang akan terjadi di Anglo jika program ini diambil, tapi apa yang akan terjadi pada bank-bank Ireland lain. Dengan berapa kos mereka penggalangan dana naik? Jawapannya, tentu saja, tidak ada yang tahu, termasuk semua komentator yang memberikan pandangan tentang hal ini secara teratur.

Bahaya terakhir adalah: akan suatu standard teknikal Anglo menaikkan kos pembiayaan untuk Ireland Inc itu sendiri? Sekali lagi sukar untuk mengatakan. Ada dua sekolah. Salah satu menunjukkan bahawa dengan memotong Anglo longgar, Ireland menjadi risiko kredit yang lebih baik dan kos pembiayaan benar-benar bisa drop.

Kandungan menyarankan selepas anda Welch pada setiap hutang, bayaran dana anda di tempat lain meningkat dan anda bahkan boleh dikunci keluar dari pasaran bon seluruhnya.

Sedangkan sumbangan Mr Gilmore adalah menyambut, hanya benar yang dia bilang yang tidak diketahui besar yang terkandung dalam pendekatan ia telah diluluskan.

Futures rise on strong tech-sector results

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Fri, 17 Sep 2010 11:24:00 +0000

US stock futures dikupas keuntungan, tapi masih menunjuk ke pembukaan kukuh tinggi di Wall Street, kerana para pelabur menyambut keputusan yang lebih baik daripada anggaran dari Research In Motion Ltd dan Oracle Corp

Sebahagian besar pasaran Asia selesai lebih tinggi, dan saham Eropah mencatat keuntungan yang solid dalam perdagangan sore. Permintaan untuk emas, sementara, terus berlanjutan, dengan berjangka Disember / quotes/comstock/21e f:! Gc \ Z10 (GCZ10 1282, 8,40,

0.66%) naik ke kedudukan tertinggi baru di atas $ 1280 per ounce.

Emas adalah selamat tradisional dan minat pelabur di dalamnya menyoroti kedalaman keprihatinan ekonomi yang tersisa di pasaran.

Namun, Wall Street tampak menetapkan untuk membuka keuntungan Jumaat. Futures di Dow Jones Industrial Average / quotes/comstock/19 * dy10z (DJZ10 10.550, 45,00, 0,43%)! Naik 69 mata kepada 10.687 selepas tersenarai naik lebih dari 100 mata sebelumnya.

S & P 500 berjangka / quotes/comstock/21m f1:! Sp \ Z10 (SPZ10 1,131, 8,00, 0,71%) naik 6,60 mata ke 1,129.20 dan Nasdaq 100 futures / quotes/comstock/21m f:! Dn \ Z10 (NDZ10 1964 , 14,25, 0,73%) maju 10,25 mata ke 1.960.

Indeks blue-chip Dow / quotes/comstock/10w i:! Dji / tertunda (DJIA 10.595, 22,10, 0,21%) eked keluar keuntungan kecil pada hari Khamis. Itu berakhir naik 0,2%, sehingga bulan-to-date nya keuntungan 5,8%.

"Semalam kita punya beberapa pendapatan yang sangat baik keluaran. Oracle adalah kejutan besar ke terbalik, "kata Christian Tegllund Blaabjerg, kepala strategi ekuiti di Saxo Bank di Denmark.

FedEx Corp / quotes/comstock/13 * FDX / mengutip / NLS / FDX (FDX 82,72, -3,22, -3,75%)! Juga melaporkan bahawa permintaan antarabangsa mengambil, mengurangkan kebimbangan atas kemelesetan double-dip mungkin, yang mengandungi menjadi bimbang kunci untuk pasaran akhir-akhir ini, ia menambah.

"Selain itu, Research In Motion keluar dengan keputusan yang lebih baik dari yang diharapkan," kata Blaabjerg. "Dua syarikat teknologi akan keluar dengan keputusan yang lebih baik dari yang diharapkan dan syarikat pengangkutan mengatakan bahawa permintaan antarabangsa memuat -. Ini adalah berita pasaran sedang mencari"

Setelah pasaran ditutup pada hari Khamis, BlackBerry maker Research In Motion / quotes/comstock/15 * RIMM / mengutip / NLS / RIMM (RIMM 48,75, 2,26, 4,86%)! Melaporkan peningkatan tajam dalam keuntungan bersih suku kedua fiskal dan pendapatan yang melebihi ekspektasi penganalisis. Saham syarikat rally 6% dalam perdagangan premarket pada hari Jumaat.

Juga di sektor teknologi, Oracle / quotes/comstock/15 *! ORCL / mengutip / NLS / ORCL (ORCL 26,43, 1.07, 4.22%) mengatakan keuntungan kuartalan meningkat tajam, mengalahkan anggaran pasaran. saham Oracle naik 4,1% dalam perdagangan premarket.

saham teknologi lain juga naik di perdagangan premarket, dengan Aixtron AG / quotes/comstock/15 * aixg / mengutip / NLS / aixg (AIXG 26,52, -0,23, -0,86%) / quotes/comstock/23k Baixa (DE:! AIXA! 21,14, 0.80, 3,91%) maju 5% dan SAP AG / quotes/comstock/13 * getah / mengutip / NLS / getah (SAP 47,91, 0,31, 0,65%) / quotes/comstock/11e!! FSAP ( DE: SAP 37,44, 0,84, 2,30%) memperoleh 2,6%.

Texas Instruments Inc / quotes/comstock/13 * TXN / mengutip / NLS / TXN (TXN 25,68, 0,70, 2,80%)! Melonjak 2,7% dalam perdagangan premarket selepas pembuat cip mengumumkan rancangan untuk membeli kembali lebih banyak saham.

Di depan ekonomi pada hari Jumaat, harga pelanggan untuk bulan Ogos akan dilaporkan pada pukul 8:30 am waktu Timur.

Setelah pasaran dibuka, Universiti indeks sentimen pelanggan Michigan awal untuk bulan September akan dikeluarkan.

FOREX: WHEN IS INTERVENTION NOT MANIPULATION?

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Fri, 17 Sep 2010 07:56:00 +0000

Menteri Kewangan Geithner kesaksian tentang dasar mata wang asing China gagal untuk meninggalkan penyok pada dolar AS. Alasannya adalah kerana sebanyak ia mahu mengakui bahawa China adalah buatan melemahkan mata wang, ia enggan untuk menunjukkan bahawa China akan dicap sebagai manipulator mata wang dalam laporan Oktober Jabatan Kewangan. Kita harus bertanya, Mr Geithner, bagaimana campur tangan berbeza daripada manipulasi? Tentu saja kita sudah tahu jawapannya dan jangan pernah mengharapkan Geithner mengatakan itu, iaitu bahawa campur tangan tidak manipulasi ketika pelakunya adalah Cina dan mereka telah anda oleh dompet. Walaupun banyak syarikat AS dan Amerika menderita daripada kelemahan Yuan China dan kesannya terhadap pekerjaan AS, ada juga sama banyak perniagaan di Amerika Syarikat yang kuat yang tidak mahu pasaran China tertutup bagi mereka. Geithner menunjukkan hal ini ketika ia mengatakan bahawa syarikat-syarikat AS takut menghadapi China. Tentu saja ketakutan tidak salah sebagai orang Cina mempunyai sejarah balasan. Hal ini untuk alasan-alasan yang Geithner hanya mengatakan China "mungkin memenuhi uji manipulator pada beberapa masa," tetapi "laporan Treasury mata wang bukan merupakan alat yang sangat berkesan" untuk mendapatkan China untuk merevaluasi. Dengan kata lain, ia percaya bahawa branding China sebagai manipulator mata wang boleh mencetuskan lebih banyak masalah daripada penyelesaian dan dia mungkin benar.

AS mungkin tidak label China sebagai manipulator mata wang pada bulan Oktober untuk mengelakkan serangan langsung tetapi G20 boleh menukar bahasa mereka pada kadar pertukaran untuk mengekspresikan ketidakpuasan mereka tumbuh dengan dasar mata wang negara. Dalam beberapa hal, ini boleh menjadi lebih penting kerana itu akan merupakan pembangkang peringkat global melawan rejim China tukar dan cukup untuk mendorong mereka untuk revaluasi lain. Juncker dari Kesatuan Eropah telah menyatakan ketidakpuasannya dengan campur tangan solo Jepun dan pagi ini, dia mengatakan mata wang China adalah undervalued dan langkah-langkah mereka untuk menguatkan Yuan "adalah tidak cukup." Seperti Geithner mengatakan, agenda Oktober 9 11 G-20 Menteri Kewangan dan pertemuan Bankers Tengah di Washington akan merangkumi perbincangan tentang China dan Yuan. Negara di seluruh dunia sedang putus asa untuk pertumbuhan dan mereka akan mendapatkannya di mana mereka dapat dan sekarang mereka inginkan dari China. Tentu saja, China sangat politik cerdas dan mereka mungkin akan mendahului setiap kritik yang serius dengan menguatkan mata wang sebelum pertemuan G20, seperti mereka selalu lakukan.

Tokyo's Yen Shift Poses Trader Puzzle

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Thu, 16 Sep 2010 13:36:00 +0000

Barley OLEH RICHARD DAN SIMON NIXON

Bagaimana seharusnya pelabur memberi respons campur tangan kejutan Jepun untuk mengekang kekuatan yen? Itu bergantung pada apakah campur tangan ternyata sikap politik, terhad pada sekitar dua trilion yen ($ 23000000000) setakat ini menghabiskan, atau sesuatu yang lebih seperti, campur tangan 2003-2004 ketika Menteri Kewangan melakukan campur tangan untuk lagu 35000000000000 ¥.

Western policy makers, believing the exercise to be ...

GBP: SHRUGS OFF WEAKER EMPLOYMENT REPORT

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Thu, 16 Sep 2010 11:08:00 +0000

British pound melonjak terhadap dolar AS dan euro meski data ekonomi lemah. tuntutan pengangguran tiba-tiba naik untuk pertama kalinya sejak Januari hingga 2,300 versus -4100 dianggarkan sebagai pemotongan besar-besaran sektor awam memberikan tekanan pada pasaran tenaga kerja. Sementara pendapatan untuk suku naik sebanyak 1.5 peratus terhadap mata 1,6 peratus, kadar pengangguran untuk bulan Julai tetap stabil sebanyak 7.8 peratus. Secara keseluruhan, titik data terkini untuk kelajuan melemahnya pemulihan khususnya dengan sektor perumahan berjuang untuk mendapatkan momentum, tetapi ada tanda-tanda ringan beberapa perbaikan sebagai kepercayaan pelanggan tampaknya akan mengambil lagi. Pound mengibaskan kenaikan Penuntut mengira selepas jatuh ke 1,5450, untuk menyelesaikan di kawasan-kawasan positif untuk hari itu. Dengan inflasi saat ini sebesar 3,1 peratus dan dijangka akan tetap di atas target 2 peratus BoE akan menyongsong tahun 2011, tampak bahawa kesan daripada kenaikan di PPN belum surut dulu. Tidak untuk menyebutkan, tenaga dan harga pangan digabungkan dengan tahap belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya dasar stimulus disahkan oleh kerajaan Inggeris memberikan lebih banyak sokongan untuk ekspektasi inflasi naik, daripada jatuh, pada bulan-bulan mendatang. Semua masalah ini memberikan panggilan ahli MPC Andrew Sentence untuk menaikkan suku bunga kepercayaan lebih. Namun demikian, Gabenor BoE Mervyn King pagi ini membuat kenyataan bahawa ia percaya sebaliknya. Gabenor King menjelaskan bahawa pelanggan dan pelabur telah banyak menderita di krisis ini dan bahawa tambahan "Hal ini tidak masuk akal untuk risiko kenaikan merosakkan suku bunga jangka panjang yang akan membuat pelaburan dan kos hipotik lebih mahal.", Rencana nya tindakan adalah untuk - adalah Khamis hari yang berita penting bagi Inggeris dengan sejumlah keluaran penting termasuk Retail Sales, yang dijangka akan meningkat dengan "mengurangkan defisit terus selama lima tahun pengetatan fiskal yang lebih berperingkat dibandingkan dengan beberapa negara lain." 0.3 peratus berbanding 0.1 peratus sebelumnya. Pesanan Industri dan Harapan Pelanggan Inflasi akan membungkus hari dan minggu, dengan inflasi akan tetap menjadi fikiran yang kuat di benak konsumen

Your Trading Brain : Expert or Novice

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Thu, 16 Sep 2010 03:24:00 +0000

By: Alvaro Fernandez

We had the fortune to interview Dr. Brett Steenbarger on Enhancing Trader Performance and The Psychology of TradingÂ as we launched our Neuroscience Interview Series.

Below, Expert Contributor Dr. Janice Dorn provides an in-depth brain-based discussion of the topic, concluding that “The brain is the most powerful structure in the known universe and the only trading tool that the trader needs to become an expert.”

No matter whether you are a Pro or Amateur Trader…this will certainly exercise your brain! (Dr. Dorn is preparing more articles on trading performance and the brain…so stay tuned).

This is Your Brain On Trading

– By Dr. Janice DornÂ

The opening bell sounds, and sixty million traders enter the greatest arena in the world to do battle with each other. They put their money, beliefs and skills on the line as they make decisions to buy and sell. Welcome to the financial markets where billions of dollars are won and lost every day. Volatility compels all to engage their brains in the continuous process of decision making. What separates the winning from losing traders is the way they use their most powerful trading tool—the human brain.

The average time and effort required to achieve expertise in trading is 10 years and 10,000-20,000 hours of practice. Moreover, it is the quality of the practice, the complete immersion in the subject and the ability to profit through ever-changing market cycles that separates trading winners from losers. It takes a lot of falling down, making mistakes, learning, re-learning and getting up again to make an expert trader. Most of all, it takes pure passion and total commitment to the process.

How do excellent traders become that way and stay that way? How do they perceive, interpret and act on the barrage of information they receive during the trading day? How do master traders make decisions in a rapidly moving, ambiguous environment where they are confronted with massive amounts of information and data? These questions pose more questions as we attempt to understand and model the thoughts, feelings and behaviors that are patterned in the brains of successful traders.

YOUR TRADING BRAIN 101

The human brain is the basis for decision-making in every aspect of trading, from the initial desire to learn to trade, choice of trading instrument, development of trading plan, strategy and trade execution. It is the human brain that makes decisions and causes these decisions to be put into action. Trading is, from start to finish, 100% neurobehavioral, and the human brain is the most powerful trading tool. To even begin to understand what separates the excellent trader from the rest, we must look for answers within the brain. The human brain is the most powerful, complex and sophisticated information-processing system in the known universe. One hundred thousand years old and weighing about three pounds, it is a dynamic, opportunistic, self-organizing system of systems. It sits quietly inside of a closed, dark space and knows nothing except what it is told by electrochemical impulses streaming into it. The brain contains some 100 billion nerve cells called neurons (Figure 1, to the right) which branch out to form over one quadrillion connections called synapses. (Figure 2, to the left). The easiest way to conceptualize this is that there are more synapses in the human brain than there are stars in the known universe. Memory and learning occur when the neurons and synapses reorganize and strengthen themselves through repeated usage.

Although the exterior of the human brain is quite unremarkable with few visible landmarks, there is a long tradition of drawing the brain with labels indicating different “areas” of structure and function (Figure 3). Although highly oversimplified, these offer a road map for beginning to understand brain localization and organization.

A simple map of the exterior surface of the brain. The occipital lobe serves vision, the frontal lobe is for movement and the prefrontal lobe governs higher thinking and processing.

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LOOK INSIDE YOUR TRADING BRAIN

In recent years, these colored illustrations have been increasingly replaced by real-time depictions of the human brain in action. Through various neuroimagining techniques, such as fMRI (functional magnetic resonance imaging), PET (positron emission tomography) and MEG (magnetoencephalography), we have the opportunity to study the internal structure and function of the living brain in the process of carrying out various tasks, including those involving decision making for monetary rewards. Although not ideal, and still in developmental phases, these studies offer novel insights into the way the brain processes information and they promise hope for the future of unraveling the mysteries of the brain. Figure 4 (right below)Â is an fMRI of the brain showing areas that are believed to “light up”, i.e. become activated, in the process of making trading decisions.

THINKING AND FEELING WITH YOUR TRADING BRAIN

For our purposes, the brain has two major structural and functional divisions: the thinking brain (neocortex) and the feeling/emotional brain (limbic cortex). These two areas of the brain are in constant communication as the neocortex attempts to interpret and modulate powerful impulses from the limbic brain. Figure 5 (to the right)Â is a simple drawing of the relationship between the neocortex (beige color) and the limbic structures (shown in color).

Limbic structures such as the amygdala and hippocampus shown here in color lie deep within the neocortex (beige color). In the process of development of the brain, the neocortical areas grew up and folded over the limbic areas.

Thus, the limbic areas are called “old brain” and the neocortical areas are called “new brain.” In terms of functional decision making, the neocortical areas are reasoned, slow, deliberate, and cognitive, i.e. they think (cogitate). The limbic areas are fast, less than rational, appetitive, and not self-aware, i.e., they feel (affect). There is a constant battle going on between these two areas that may lead to agreement or conflict. Such states are called dissonance (which may be cognitive or affective) and consonance (which may be cognitive or affective).

With this basic information, we can now appreciate that the brain communicates with itself through neurons and their synaptic connections that travel up, down and laterally from one brain region to another. Moreover, the brain uses stored memories to create, recreate and recognize patterns. These patterns allow us to solve problems, make decisions and engage in effective behaviors. Crucial to this discussion is that decision precedes behavior. For example, the motor activity involved in clicking the computer mouse to send a trading order is not the decision; rather it is a behavioral response to the decision that has already been made in the brain. Trade execution is, then, the end result of a circuit of neurobehavioral processing which goes on inside of the brain.

YOUR TRADING BRAIN: SYNAPTIC STRATEGIES

With this fundamental backdrop, we may now begin to imagine the possible course of processing and communication that goes on within the brains of traders. The illustrations in Figure 6 and Figure 7 are highly simplified and incomplete. They do not show the myriad of synaptic connections, internal feedback, modulating mechanisms, partial pattern representations or temporal aspects of brain processing. They are a template from which to begin the journey to understanding that it is synaptic strategies that differentiate trading success from trading failure.

Figures 6 and 7 use visual input to the brain because the majority of traders employ vision as their primary mode of perception. One could substitute auditory or perceptual input, but I have chosen to use the visual mode. Also, I am making the assumption that the trader is using synaptic and neuronal mechanisms to visualize, interpret, process and respond to what is seen on the trading screen as a signal. The flow is as follows:

The signal is seen;
The signal is remembered or not remembered;
The signal is interpreted from a feeling (affective) of either consonance or dissonance;
The signal is interpreted from a thinking (cognitive) state of either consonance or dissonance;
Bodily reactions of excitement or calming occur;
The trade is executed or not executed.

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THE EXPERT TRADER: SYNAPTIC STRATEGIES

Figure 6 shows an experienced trader who sees a signal, processes it through his brain and acts quickly to execute. He has seen this before, has gone through the same procedure many times such that his synaptic strategies are laid down and strengthened through repeated brain training stimulation. There is little or no cognitive or affective dissonance in the course of receiving a signal, processing the pattern, making a decision and executing it.

In Figure 6 (left), the synaptic strategy is such that the signal:

- Enters the brain through the eyes;
- Goes from the eyes to the visual area of the neocortex where it is represented as a pattern;
- Travels as a pattern from the visual cortex to the hippocampus where it is remembered;
- Moves from the hippocampus to the amygdala and limbic structures where it is given affect (mood and feeling). In this case there is affective consonance, i.e. the trader feels good about the signal;
- Transmits between the limbic area and the hypothalamus to send messages to the body for calming and quieting. Although there may be some anxiety or fear involved, these tend to be minimal. Blood pressure, heart rate and breathing, which are controlled through these mechanisms, remain unchanged or slightly elevated;
- Communicates from limbic structures to the prefrontal thinking areas where there is cognitive agreement. There is little thinking time involved here and there is cognitive consonance;
- Goes to the motor area of the neocortex where the signal is sent to the hand to click the mouse;
- Is executed as a trade.

In this instance, due to repeated, constant and intense conscious practice and experience in a variety of market conditions, the trader knows and feels the possible outcome of taking the trade. His synaptic strategy causes him little if any bodily discomfort and he is aware at all times that the market could prove him wrong. He knows this from constant repetition and already has plans to exit if it does not work out. This is a winning synaptic strategy based on continual conscious practice which trains the brain in such as way as to allow the synaptic connections to act rapidly and in harmony with each other. There is little, if any, cognitive or affective dissonance.

THE NOVICE TRADER: FLAWED SYNAPTIC STRATEGY

In Figure 7, the synaptic strategy is that of an inexperienced, novice or poorly trained trader. In this case, the signal:

Enters the brain through the eyes;
Goes from the eyes to the visual area of the neocortex where it is represented as a pattern;
- Travels as a pattern from the visual cortex to the hippocampus where it is not remembered or partially remembered. The hippocampus becomes very “chatty” and starts sending the pattern up to higher and higher levels of the visual cortex asking for help in the task of pattern recognition;
- Moves from the hippocampus to the amygdala and limbic structures where it is given affect (mood and feeling). In this case there is affective dissonance, i.e. the trader feels badly about the signal;
- Transmits actively between the limbic area and the hypothalamus to send messages to the body for arousal. Physical manifestations of anxiety or fear may appear. Blood pressure, heart rate and breathing that are controlled through these mechanisms may be elevated and sweating may occur;
- Goes back and forth from limbic structures to the prefrontal thinking areas where there is cognitive dissonance. There is a lot of thinking, questioning, second guessing and internal cross-talk;
- Does not go to the motor cortex and is not executed as a trade;
- Due to lack of adequate practice or a dearth of experience in this market condition, the trader is synaptically short-circuited. There is so much going on inside his brain that the cross-talk causes both cognitive and affective dissonance. This is a state of confusion and “dis-ease”. The trade is not executed.Â

The process of pattern distortion or non-recognition in an inexperienced trader leads to “freezing” and not taking the trade as shown in Figure 7. There is one other possibility not shown in Figure 7 that happens with some regularity. Owing to the large amount of confusion and anxiety that is going on inside of his brain, the trader may actually execute the trade in order to alleviate his anxiety. In actual fact, this process of attempting to alleviate anxiety likely leads to more anxiety, more internal questioning and more cognitive and affective dissonance. In other words, it can become a vicious cycle that leads to losses and may be one of the reasons that so many individuals do not stay the course with trading.

TRAIN YOUR TRADING BRAIN

In summary, it is my opinion that all trading strategies and decision making are brain-based synaptic strategies. Because the human brain has an infinite capacity to change, organize and reorganize itself, progression to trading excellence is possible. It is only through intense, diligent and totally committed practice through many years and many market cycles that the trader advances to the state of disciplined excellence. This excellence is the result of training the synaptic connections within the thinking and feeling areas of the brain. As a consequence of this training, the trader will be able to recognize, process instantly and execute the trade with little or no cognitive or affective dissonance.

The brain is the most powerful structure in the known universe and the only trading tool that the trader needs to become an expert.

For the past twelve years, Janice Dorn, M.D., Ph.D.,Â has focused her attention on trading, mentoring and commentary in the financial markets, with emphasis on Behavioral NeuroFinance, Mass NeuroPsychology andÂ Trading NeuroPsychology. She has traded the gold futures markets full time since 1996, and has coached and mentored over 600 traders and investors. She is the Global Risk Strategist for Ingenieux Consulting Group Pty Ltd

__________________

Trade Counter EJ

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Wed, 15 Sep 2010 13:57:00 +0000

the BOJ intervened to weaken the yen causes EJ GJ Új up sharply today. but there are rumors that say this is just temporary and I took a risk to counter the trend of trading today. The highest barriers EJ fibo level at 161.8 .. let see what happen TP at100pip counter the trend with a minimum risk

p/s:- alamak teruknya english aku...hahahah

Japan Pushes Down Yen

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Wed, 15 Sep 2010 11:01:00 +0000

TOKYO-Kerajaan Jepun mengatakan hal itu melompat ke dalam pasaran mata wang untuk pertama kalinya dalam lebih daripada enam tahun Rabu pagi, campur tangan untuk cuba untuk membendung kenaikan tajam yen.

Pengumuman itu datang sebagai pengambil dasar dan pemimpin perniagaan Jepun telah menjadi semakin bimbang bahawa kenaikan mata wang tersebut telah membahayakan rapuh pemulihan ekonomi eksport-dipimpin, mempertaruhkan harga dari pasaran di seluruh dunia. kebimbangan Yen telah mendorong Nikkei Stock Average ke wilayah beruang pasaran dalam beberapa pekan terakhir.

saham Tokyo naik hampir 2% Rabu pagi, kerana para peniaga bermula pelaporan campur tangan, yang kemudian menegaskan pada sidang akhbar oleh Menteri Kewangan Yoshihiko Noda. mesyuarat tersebut dipimpin oleh pengeksport atas seperti Toyota Motor Corp, Nissan Motor Co dan Honda Motor Co, saham yang semua naik 3% atau lebih.

Dolar naik menjadi hampir 85 yen berita, selepas menyelinap di pagi hari di bawah paras 83 ¥ untuk pertama kalinya dalam 15 tahun.

"Deflasi terus, dan kita berada dalam keadaan ekonomi yang teruk," kata Mr Noda wartawan. "Dalam situasi, gerakan-gerakan baru-baru ini [dalam] yen akan memiliki kesan negatif pada kestabilan keadaan ekonomi dan kewangan, dan kita tidak boleh mengabaikan mereka."

Mr Noda membuat jelas bahawa tindakan lagi yang boleh datang, mengatakan "kami akan terus memantau pergerakan di pasaran matawang asing dan akan mengambil langkah-langkah yang menentukan, termasuk campur tangan, jika perlu."

Menampilkan memindahkan dibangunkan secara bersama dengan bank sentral, Bank of Japan Masaaki Shirakawa Gabenor mengeluarkan kenyataan menyokong bergerak dan menunjukkan dasar kewangan akan bergerak dalam konser dengan Jabatan Kewangan. "Bank akan, sambil mengejar easing kewangan yang kuat, terus menyediakan likuiditas yang cukup untuk pasaran kewangan," kata Mr Shirakawa.

Ini adalah kedua kalinya dalam waktu kurang dari tiga minggu bahawa pembuat dasar Jepun telah buru-buru cuba untuk mengekang kenaikan yen. On Aug 30, BOJ mengadakan pertemuan kecemasan untuk mengepam lebih banyak kecairan ke dalam ekonomi.

Tapi langkah yang mempunyai kesan pendek, dan tidak jelas berapa lama aksi akan Rabu. Sementara Jabatan Kewangan menolak mengatakan berapa banyak yang menghabiskan, peniaga dijangka campur tangan mata wang itu bernilai antara ¥ 200.000.000.000 dan 300 bilion yen, atau 2400000000 $ menjadi $ 3,5 bilion dengan kadar saat ini, walaupun jumlahnya boleh meningkat dengan Jepun terus operasinya . Itu adalah setitik dalam ember dibandingkan dengan $ 586.000.000.000 di omset harian dalam perdagangan dolar-yen.

intervensi yang berkesan pada akhirnya mungkin akan memerlukan koordinasi dengan negara-negara lain, terutama Amerika Syarikat Mr Noda mengatakan Jepun bertindak sendiri saat ini, tetapi menambah bahawa "kami telah bekerjasama dengan pihak kerajaan." Treasury dan pegawai Federal Reserve mencapai di Washington menolak mengomentari langkah Jepun.

Kesan jangka panjang pasaran bergerak seperti itu akhirnya akan dipadam kecuali Jepun menemukan cara untuk mengatasi keadaan yang mendasari dasar ekonomi dan yang telah mencetuskan kenaikan yen.

Kekuatan yen dihubungkan dengan harapan lebih melonggarkan kewangan di AS dan Eropah, yang akan menurunkan suku bunga di pasaran tempatan mereka. Itu akan mengecilkan jurang suku bunga antara bangsa-bangsa dan Jepun, di mana suku bunga sudah pada tahap batu-bawah dan tidak boleh pergi jauh lebih rendah. Yang meningkatkan daya tarikan relatif menjaga aset dalam yen. Harapan deflasi lanjutan di Jepun juga membantu yen. Jika harga turun lebih jauh, yang meningkatkan nilai relatif dari pemilikan yen berasaskan untuk orang asing.

Para penganalisis berkata kenaikan yen telah dipercepat dalam beberapa pekan terakhir karena pelabur Jepun besar dijual keluar dari US Treasurys dan aset di luar negeri lain dan membawa pulang wang yang akan dituangkan ke dalam obligasi kerajaan Jepun. kepelbagaian Kerajaan China portfolio, dan peningkatan tajam dalam pembelian obligasi kerajaan Jepun, juga dipercayai akan mendorong yen.

Menulis untuk Takashi NAKAMICHI di dowjones.com @ takashi.nakamichi dan Takashi Mochizuki di takashi.mochizuki @ dowjones.com

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noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Tue, 14 Sep 2010 08:33:00 +0000

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Usd/Jpy Fall Fresh 15years low

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Tue, 14 Sep 2010 05:02:00 +0000

The U.S. dollar fell to a fresh 15-year low against the Japanese yen ahead of a big leadership election in Japan and also struggled to claw back ground against the euro during Asian trading hours Tuesday.

The dollar touched 83.23 yen /quotes/comstock/21o!x:susdjpy (USDYEN 83.3100, -0.4000, -0.4778%) , the lowest level since later recovering slightly to ¥83.43 but still down from ¥83.66 in late North American trading on Monday.

The move came ahead of an election to decide the leader of the Democratic Party of Japan, with the winner widely expected to serve as the nation's prime minister.

The election was slated to start at 2 p.m. local time, or 1 a.m. U.S. Eastern time, when Prime Minister Naoto Kan faces off against former Democratic Party of Japan secretary-general Ichiro Ozawa.

"Polls suggest that Prime Minister Kan has the edge over his rival Ozawa, gaining roughly equal support from lawmakers but enjoying better support from party members and regional officials," strategists at BNP Paribas said Tuesday.

"Markets have priced in some of this likely victory -- both the yen and Japanese government bonds rallied [Monday] -- but the removal of the Ozawa intervention threat should see further gains in both," they said.

Although both candidates for the party leadership have threatened to intervene in the currency markets to halt the rise of the yen, Ozawa has been far more vocal about the need for intervention and for further fiscal stimulus efforts.

The dollar index /quotes/comstock/11j!i:dxy0 (DXY 81.81, -0.10, -0.12%) , which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 81.855, marginally down from 81.914 hit in late North American trading Monday.

The greenback traded broadly flat against the euro /quotes/comstock/21o!x:seurusd (EURUSD 1.2878, +0.0002, +0.0155%) on Tuesday, at $1.2870, after losing more than 1% against the common currency on Monday. The euro lost ground against the yen, hitting ¥107.42, down from ¥107.63 Monday.

Although investors may be sitting on their hands ahead of a survey of German economic sentiment due out Tuesday, the BNP Paribas strategists said that this is unlikely to be the case for long.

They said recent trade data from China show that imports from Germany climbed to an all time high.

"This is good news for Germany and is one of the reasons behind the euro/U.S. dollar rally yesterday. Thus unless the ZEW survey comes in much lower than expected, than the impact on the euro/U.S. dollar rally will likely be negligible," they added.

Credit to:-Sarah Turner is MarketWatch's bureau chief in Sydney.

Japan's revised April-June GDP rises 0.4%

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 12:47:00 +0000

Japan's gross domestic product rose 0.4% in the second quarter ended June 30 over the preceding three months, according to a second preliminary estimate released Friday by the Japanese Cabinet Office.

That was stronger than the first preliminary growth estimate of just 0.1%. On an annualized basis, second-quarter GDP rose 1.5%, according to the second-quarter preliminary estimate. That compared to a first preliminary estimate for growth of 0.4%.

The second-quarter preliminary estimates were in line with economist expectations, according to data compiled by Dow Jones Newswires and the Nikkei.

Public investment was revised up to a 2.7% decline, from a previous estimate for a 3.4% drop. Private non-residential investment rose 1.5%, according to the second preliminary estimate. The first preliminary estimate had flagged growth of 0.5%

Forex Jargon:- Istilah Dalam Pasaran

noreply@blogger.com (exllon) — Sat, 04 Sep 2010 13:57:00 +0000

Pasar memiliki bahasa mereka sendiri dan semua dalam bahasa yang, forex mempunyai dialek sendiri. Berikut adalah beberapa istilah kita biasa digunakan dalam ulasan.

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) organisasi antarabangsa yang meningkatkan kerjasama kewangan dan kewangan dan berfungsi sebagai bank untuk bank sentral. Para BIS sering bertindak sebagai agen di pasaran matawang, yang membolehkan bank sentral untuk menutup identiti mereka dalam usaha untuk mengurangkan kesan pasaran.

Barrier Option: Jenis "pilihan eksotis" yang datang menjadi ada atau berhenti ada sekali harga tertentu tercapai. Mereka sering ditambah ke "vanili" atau khas pilihan untuk membuat premi lebih murah. Contohnya, 1,4000 EUR / USD panggilan dibeli ketika spot berada di 1,3500 akan lebih murah jika ada KO "" tertanam dalam pilihan, misalnya di 1,3300. Jika 1,3300 perdagangan sebelum berakhirnya pilihan, semua struktur akan "knocked out" dan penjual pilihan akan mampu saku turun premi.

Bid: Perintah untuk membeli ditempatkan pada atau di bawah pasaran.

BOC: Bank of Canada

BOE: Bank of England

BOJ: Bank of Japan

Buba: Sebutan pasaran untuk Bundesbank, inflasi-terobsesi bank sentral Jerman

Cable: Nama panggilan untuk GBP / USD. Berasal dari penggunaan kabel transatlantik untuk bertransaksi mata wang urus niaga tahun lalu. Siapa pun yang menggunakan istilah seperti "Cable-yen" atau "euro-Cable" harus diberhentikan sebagai pm amatur.

Clearer: Salah satu daripada empat bank besar Inggeris (Barclays, Lloyds, HSBC, RBS). Secara historis, mereka adalah clearers utama cek kertas.

Corporates: jabatan kewangan daripada beberapa syarikat multinasional besar. Mereka bertanggung jawab untuk lindung nilai pendedahan forex dari syarikat mereka, yang dapat memiliki kesan dramatik terhadap pendapatan syarikat dengan jualan luar negeri yang besar. Sebagai contoh, sebuah syarikat seperti Boeing mempunyai pendapatan besar dalam dolar tetapi sebahagian besar pangkalan kos di euro. Mereka harus lindung nilai atas perubahan mata wang mereka untuk mencuba dan dikurangkan perlawanan ini salah.

Custody bank: Sebuah bank yang memegang surat berharga dalam tahanan untuk institusi kewangan lain, apakah perakaunan mereka dan mendudukkan aktiviti perniagaan mereka. Contohnya termasuk Bank of New York Mellon, State Street dan Northern Trust Co juga tahu sebagai penjaga

Delta: Nisbah membandingkan perubahan harga dari aset yang mendasari berkaitan dengan perubahan harga terhadap derivatif. Kadang-kadang disebut sebagai nisbah "pagar". Berkat Investopia.com

Double-Not Touch (DNT) Sebuah strategi pilihan yang membayar pemilik struktur jika harga tetap dalam rentang yang telah ditetapkan selama tempoh kontrak. Misalnya sebuah DNT 1.30/.35 akan menjelaskan jika harga tidak perdagangan luar liputan bahawa sementara pilihan tersebut sudah berlaku.

Ecofin: Sebuah dewan yang terdiri daripada ekonomi dan menteri kewangan Kesatuan Eropah. Mereka bertemu sebulan sekali.

Eurogroup: Sekumpulan menteri kewangan negara-negara yang menjadi ahli euro. Juru bicara itu adalah Jean-Claude Junckers, menteri kewangan Luxembourg.

European Financial Stability Facility (ESFS) merupakan instrumen undang-undang yang telah disepakati oleh 27 negara ahli Kesatuan Eropah pada tarikh 9 Mei 2010, yang bertujuan menjaga kestabilan kewangan di Eropah dengan memberikan bantuan kewangan kepada negara-negara zon euro dalam kesulitan. Bahasa sehari-hari dikenali sebagai 'euro SPV' atau 'euro TARP'

Fade: untuk berdagang bertentangan dengan. Contohnya, untuk "memudar trend" adalah untuk melawan trend. Untuk memudar rumor adalah untuk percaya tidak benar dan melakukan kebalikan dari apa rumor akan menyarankan.

Fibonacci retracements: Sebuah alat yang berguna bagi para peniaga sebagai pasaran yang benar selama trend. Kakitangan mencari sokongan di pullbacks pada 38.2% daripada Uptrend atau rebound dalam kecenderungan untuk menurun, 50% dan 61,8%. Berasal dari "nisbah emas" dari ahli matematik Itali Fibonacci.

Fixing: Sebuah waktu yang telah ditetapkan hari ketika tawaran dan menawarkan dikumpul dan dibersihkan dengan harga yang diumumkan. bahan-bahan peralatan popular adalah "ECB memperbaiki" pada pukul 12:15 GMT dan London memperbaiki pukul 16:00 GMT. Bahan-bahan yang digunakan terutamanya oleh pengurus aset. Mereka memiliki tanggung jawab fidusia untuk mendapatkan pelanggan mereka eksekusi terbaik dan berfikir adalah penentuan harga adalah yang paling telus hari. Harga patokan ini diterbitkan oleh Syarikat WM.

Funds: gelaran pasar untuk matawang USD / CAD

Gamma Concepts-konsep dalam pasaran opsyen disajikan dalam abjad Greek. Gamma merujuk pada peringkat perubahan di delta pilihan relatif terhadap harga daripada aset yang mendasari. Kedudukan gamma singkat akan menjadi lebih pendek sebagai harga dari kenaikan aset yang mendasari. Sebagai pasaran aksi, anda secara berkesan menjual lebih banyak dan lebih daripada aset yang mendasari sebagai delta menjadi lebih negatif.

Haircut In lending, perbezaan antara nilai kredit dan nilai agunan yang dijaminkan untuk pinjaman

IMM Pasar Kewangan Antarabangsa divisi dari Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Ini adalah pertukaran di mana sebahagian besar perdagangan mata wang berjangka mengambil tempat di seluruh dunia. kedudukan bersih di bursa dikompilasi setiap minggu dan dilaporkan dalam Laporan Komitmen Pedagang pada hari Jumaat siang.

JGB Japanese government bonds

Kampo Sebuah lengan sistem tabungan pos Jepun. Mereka adalah pelabur institusi yang saluran jumlah besar tabungan Jepun ke dalam pelaburan asing. Mereka kadang-kadang berfikir untuk bertindak di pasaran forex atas perintah dari pemerintah, untuk mempengaruhi kadar pertukaran untuk keuntungan ekonomi Jepun. Beberapa kali disebut sebagai "setengah rasmi" atau "peserta Kuasi-rasmi" pasaran.

Loonie: Nama panggilan untuk dolar Kanada. Berasal dari gambar Loon pada syiling $ 1. Apa yang dimaksudkan dengan syiling $ 2 yang disebut? Sebuah twonie, tentu saja!

Model funds: Hedge dana yang menggunakan beberapa bentuk model kuantitatif untuk memulakan dan melikuidasi perdagangan. Jenis yang paling akrab dana adalah trend-pengikutnya seperti JW Henry dan Co Banyak dari dana perdagangan pada waktu yang ditetapkan pada siang hari, sering pukul 10 pagi waktu New York.

Offer: Sebuah tempat supaya menjual pada atau di atas harga pasaran.

"Old Lady": Nama samaran Bank of England. "Lady Lama Threadneedle St"

Outside day key reversal adalah hari baik di pasang di luar tren atau terendah. Pembalikan butang bawah berlaku ketika pasaran membuat quality baru, lalu membalikkan turun kali ikut rendah hari sebelumnya, dan menutup lebih rendah daripada menutup hari sebelumnya.

Plain vanilla option: Jenis pilihan yang paling dasar dengan tarikh luput yang sederhana dan harga strike tanpa ciri-ciri tambahan.

Price keeping operations (PKO) Biasanya merujuk kepada pihak berkuasa Jepun campur tangan dalam ekuiti (dan kadang-kadang forex) pasaran untuk mempertahankan tahap harga tertentu.

Prime brokers: Syarikat yang membolehkan pelanggan seperti hedge fund untuk menggunakan kemudahan kredit mereka untuk mengakses pasaran kewangan. Sebagai contoh, pelanggan hedge fund Bank X boleh perdagangan di pasaran FX antar bank dengan menggunakan nama Bank X dengan ganjaran kos.

Quantitative ease: Sebuah strategi yang digunakan oleh bank sentral sekali penargetan suku bunga jangka pendek menjadi tidak berkesan kerana tahap telah mencapai sifar (atau berdekatan dengan itu). Bank sentral membeli aset, biasanya obligasi kerajaan, dalam usaha untuk menyuntikkan wang ke dalam ekonomi.

Rba: Reserve Bank of Australia (bank sentral)

Real money; Gelaran untuk "pengguna" akhir matawang asing, yang berdagang untuk membayar transaksi atau melikuidasi hasil dari transaksi di pasaran lain seperti ekuiti, pendapatan tetap dan komoditi. Kami biasanya menggunakan wang riil sebagai singkatan untuk pengurus aset institusi seperti dana pensiun, reksa dana dan geran. Beberapa syarikat termasuk dalam definisi mereka. Kami tidak.

Reflation trade Pembelian kelas aset yang pelabur inginkan untuk melakukannya dengan baik dalam pemulihan ekonomi. Komoditi, ekuiti dan pasaran yang muncul adalah contoh. Kelas aset yang harus dielakkan dalam suasana reflationary termasuk obligasi dan mata wang rendah yang menghasilkan.

Stop-loss: Perintah yang menutup sebuah kedudukan pasaran sekali tingkat harga tertentu di pasaran perdagangan. Misalnya, perintah menjual ditempatkan di bawah harga pasaran untuk melindungi terhadap risiko percepatan.

Sovereign wealth fund (SWF): Sebuah dana yang dibentuk oleh negara dengan cadangan devisa yang besar untuk membantu menguruskan cadangan tersebut. Biasanya SWFs pembelian kesan jangka panjang untuk mencuba dan meningkatkan hasil pelaburan di luar apa yang biasanya mendapatkan bank sentral memegang hutang kerajaan. Contohnya meliputi Kerajaan Singapura Pelaburan Syarikat dan Abu Dhabi Investment Authority.

Sovereign names: Digunakan secara bergantian untuk dana kekayaan kedaulatan atau bank sentral.

SNB: Switzerland National Bank, bank sentral Switzerland

Toshin: investment trust Jepun yang melabur dalam aset mata wang bukan-JPY.

Yard: Pasar slang untuk bilion.