Rookie Forex Trader

Topping Out?

2010-09-16T15:59:00.006-04:00

It looks like the AUDJPY may be topping out. The following 15 minute chart shows a return to a previous high with something that could end up being a head and shoulders pattern emerging.However, the 3 hour chart is showing a possible continuation and has been trending upwards for quite a while.Open up your trading platform and choose your play...Play safe!

Return Of The Robots

2010-08-15T07:18:00.003-04:00

Once again I am purely a robot trader.Part of the reason is that my day job does not allow me to use company Internet or computing resources for the purpose of earning revenue. This is a sensible restriction even if my use would only have been to let me view charts and enter trades.Now I use the Internet at work purely to watch how my robot is doing. I don't enter trades, I can't access or

Weekend Notes

2010-04-25T10:05:00.003-04:00

I've been through a lot of (non-trading) issues since I last wrote.My family and I have moved halfway across the nation, we've gotten new jobs, and had to take care of a million minor items that occur when you relocate your life. Sorry for the lack of updates.I have been doing a little manual trading here and there.The AUDJPY has been failing in the 87.xx range for most of this month. Greece,

AUDJPY: Profit Is My Density

2010-02-18T22:02:00.004-05:00

No, that's not a typo. It's a rip-off of a line from the Back To The Future movie. Anyway, this post is another in the series of theoretical considerations with respect to various robot building strategies.In this scenario let's consider fixing our maximum total position size across a specific price range. For example, perhaps we are willing to purchase 10000 units per 1000 pips (remember, I'm

AUDJPY: Range Or Reversal?

2010-02-17T20:43:00.003-05:00

The AUDJPY has had a nice run just recently.However, the 1HR is showing a small double top. Obviously, we might be looking at the beginning of a range discovery action or perhaps even a reversal if we get renewed panic concerning Greece or similar situations.Be patient and look for good opportunities.Now if only I can take my own advice... ;)

AUDJPY: A Change Of Mind

2010-02-10T22:44:00.008-05:00

Finally, something has happened to lift the pall from the AUD/JPY market.What happened? The Australian economy showed signs of heat. We have recent employment numbers that absolutely blew away expectations.Apparently, today, the AUD/USD moved from a value that gave a 25% chance of a hike in march to a 50% chance of a hike in march. Do you remember me talking about the need for a upside

AUDJPY: Oh Oh

2010-02-04T11:59:00.004-05:00

While I've been talking about the cake being baked we've just done nice big double top over the course of October 2009 through February 2010 on the daily charts.Obviously, this doesn't have to "fire" but it does invite a big panic drop to retest the July 2009 low of 70.75 or so. Considering today's rapid plummet of 300 points at this point who can say.As I noted on my last post I do think people

AUDJPY: The Cake is Baked

2010-02-01T23:00:00.006-05:00

Well, the RBA just decided not to increase rates.Recently, China decided to tighten up capital requirements for lenders.Also, there has been talk of taxing or otherwise restricting carry trade activities.Lest we forget, recent news in Australia is mixed.The US market has been skittish.Emerging markets have been very skittish.So, what am I trying to say?I'm thinking the cake is baked. You might

AUDJPY: Signs Of A Bottom?

2010-01-27T09:38:00.010-05:00

First, I have to warn you, I'm eternally bullish on the AUDJPY. This means I'm wrong on my predictions a fair amount due to my long term viewpoint.With that said, I've noticed a chart sign that implies some possible upward movement. Take a look:It may not be easy to see, but notice how the recent tails, at 09:00, under the last few candlesticks did not project below the closing prices during a

AUDJPY: Poised?

2010-01-19T12:11:00.006-05:00

I don't have time to snip a chart or anything, however I'd suggest taking a few moments to analyze the AUDJPY.What I see is the potential for a so-called "big W" on the 3 hour chart. You'll notice the right side of the W has a double bottom. If we do get the full "big W" we should see some dramatic upward movement over the week.Fundamentally, inflation, employment and other indicators in

AUDJPY: Technical Analysis

2009-12-15T14:14:00.009-05:00

Well, my posts are few and far between these days.In case anyone else is still following long here is some good information on the 3hr AUDJPY.We have a nice symmetric triangle going all the way back to November 25th.See?I'm expecting this to break (upward) and then run into a downward sloping resistance line on the 1d AUDJPY. However, we'll have to wait and see. I've been wrong (more than a few

Challenging Times

2009-11-30T11:23:00.002-05:00

While I realize the world went through a bit of an unwind, before and after the Dubai incident, I've been busy with work and family issues instead.Things have just been incredibly busy!In any case, what with the volatility and unwinding that has been going on it's probably a good time to be inactive. I did manage to blow up my small discretionary account (my robots are far better traders than I

Trading Week Recap

2009-11-13T22:40:00.003-05:00

I've been leery of letting BREAD (my primary trading robot) trade too much. I suspect prior tweaks have it taking too much risk. As such I kept it on a short leash and it only earned 0.9% for the week. Perhaps I'll have time to make some adjustments over the weekend.On the discretionary front I was back down to a more reasonable 13% this week. Last week's 34% was probably some type of market

AUDJPY: Ominously Flat

2009-11-11T15:37:00.008-05:00

I'm looking at a short term chart, but the lack of volatility suggests that something is in the air.Even with the recent good news from China things have been relatively lethargic.The daily chart is also showing the potential to have a few down days.This seems like a good time to manage risk.UPDATE: This evening, while I was on the road, I see that we had a nice spike upwards, hitting my

AUDJPY: Support Becomes Resistance

2009-11-10T07:21:00.005-05:00

My last post showed a profitable overnight setup based on a week long support line on the 1hr chart.Here, I've got an example of a support becoming resistance once it has been violated.Take a look at the following 15min chart:See the violation around 9:00pm last night? As an aside, this was a good point to try a well protected short. Overnight we tested a longer term support line (see my

AUDJPY: Price Alert

2009-11-10T00:41:00.008-05:00

Since I'm awake I thought I'd point out a price alert.The AUDJPY currency pair is testing a support line.A long tail break (closing on or above the support line) would still be a bullish sign.Anywhere, here's a recent 1hr chart snip.This is a good place to look for a trade. Good luck.NOTE: See the previous post... it shows the support line valid since November 1st.UPDATE: Upon waking this

AUDJPY Forecast

2009-11-08T09:41:00.006-05:00

What the heck, I may as well jump out on a limb and let you know what I'm seeing with the AUDJPY.Basically, if you look at the chart, we've had a good support line since the beginning of November.Now, if I've got the right chart uploaded, take a look below:Personally, I'd suggest taking a long position when the price approaches the support line. You can set a nearby stop and protect yourself

Trading Week Recap

2009-11-06T21:24:00.005-05:00

Since the trading robot, BREAD, was predominantly sidelined for the last couple of weeks I felt the need to do more discretionary trading.While the capital used wasn't very large it felt great to pull in a 34% increase over the course of the week. If I could scalp like this all the time it would definitely spell the end of the day job. I have dreams of setting up a trading office with spacious

Da Signals

2009-11-05T09:17:00.003-05:00

It takes a lot of fortitude to use them but I think the signals blog is proving itself useful.For example, right now we seem to have established a bottom in the recent AUDJPY downward movement.So, especially under such a condition, we get good results if we see a signal and then look for confirming behavior. Basically, the signals are great lead-ins to a period of analysis.No, they aren't all

Tough Week All Around

2009-10-30T16:24:00.004-04:00

With the recent downward move in the AUDJPY my robot has been sidelined. No big deal really but it does point to a possible correlation as I'd noted earlier. After a very good robot week, perhaps with behavior characteristic of a local top and massive robot profit, the market takes a downturn. There are only two data points so far but I'm definitely staying on the lookout for this. Above

Signals Blog Online

2009-10-27T21:44:00.008-04:00

Just a short note to let you know that my new signals blog is online. Obviously this is a use at your own risk situation.Robot Price AlertsAnyway, when my robots notice various conditions they will post a message concerning the event in question.The only notice type currently active may identify a situation that will either have a short term AUDJPY price rise offering a scalping opportunity or a

Minor BREAD Adjustments

2009-10-25T21:49:00.006-04:00

The BREAD trading robot has had a minor tweak during this last weekend.To make a long story short, another risk modification metric has been defined. If things work as planned this will give the robot the ability to trade over a wider currency pair price move. Obviously, the plan is to simultaneously maintain the same level of profitability.My initial readings on quantitative analysis, via

Quantitative Analysis?

2009-10-25T08:40:00.015-04:00

It has been more than a few years since I've had to apply any serious math skills towards my work. However, I have noticed some discussion of quantitative analysis in a few forex forums as well as job listings posted for quants.For a very general introduction to this concept here are some links from Wikipedia:Stochastic calculusItō calculusMonte Carlo option modelStochastic

Robot Trading: Six Weeks In

2009-10-23T21:19:00.005-04:00

Things are going well. As you can see BREAD (Basic Robot Earning All Day) is starting to look like a winner. Return Day 0.1900% Sun 13 September 3.2339% Mon 14 3.1616% Tue 15 3.2615% Wed 16 2.1510% Thu 17 0.4442% Fri 18 --------------- 13.05% 0.1850% Sun 20 2.0259% Mon 21 0.9016% Tue 22 1.1536% Wed 23 0.2460% Thu 24 0.1338% Fri 25 ----------

Forex Robot Wars: BREAD vs ARTFAB

2009-10-21T14:08:00.006-04:00

Two titans of the forex robot trading industry are squaring off in the search for higher profits.In the green corner we have BREAD (Basic Robot Earning All Day) with consistent earnings of approximately 1.2% per day. In the other green corner we have the relatively new ARTFAB (A Rising Tide Floats All Boats) with very promising early results. Already today ARTFAB has locked in over 3.0%