Forex Trading Journal

Euro Is a Creditable Currency, Said Mersch

2010-09-28T08:54:00.000-07:00

Early Usd demand ensued on speculation that the Fed may adopt a smaller scale bond buying program. Eur/Usd fell further on Spanish downgrade rumors and S&P comments that Ireland's cost of Anglo Irish Bank's recapitalisation could exceed Eur 35 billion, which may trigger further downgrades.

Losses were limited to 1.3381 before a rally proceeded on various signals. Mersch said that the Eur is a creditable currency and that the prediction of a Euro crisis is plainly wrong and the German BDI said the Eur is no threat for German industry. Meanwhile ex-PBOC adviser Yu Yongding said that China is worried about the safety of its $2.5 trillion forex reserves, and that a US dollar devaluation may be inevitable. Cable rallied to a fresh 7 week peak, boosted further after CBI distributive trades rose to 6 year highs. UK final Q2 GDP was left unrevised at 1.2% q/q and 1.7% y/y.

Japanese Authorities to Weaken The Japanese Yen Sent JPY Lower

2010-09-26T03:49:00.000-07:00

The USD was stronger at the close of the session on market chatter of another round of intervention by the Japanese authorities to weaken the JPY sent the Usd/Jpy 100+ points from its low of 84.34 to a high of 85.40 after having ignored verbal warnings from Noda about taking further action if necessary.

Market chatter of Toushin launches next week is likely to weaken the JPY further over coming sessions. The Eur/Jpy, which rose to a high of 113.75 also gave a prop to the Eur/Usd, which rose to a high of 1.3356 buoyed somewhat by EC Barroso saying that the Euro is a strong currency and is here to stay.

Asia Is Regaining the Economic Dominance It Enjoyed a Millennium Ago

2010-02-28T10:18:00.000-08:00

Yes, the east is rising again. Do they?

Singapore 2009 GDP and Forecast of 2010 GDP and Inflation

2010-02-19T15:15:00.000-08:00

Singapore final Q4 GDP is reported as -2.8% q/q Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, SAAR is better than advanced estimated of -6.8% q/q SAAR and also beat consensus forecast of -5.2%. The revised SAAR of +11.5% in Q3 and +4.0% y/y is also better than advanced estimated of 3.5% y/y and the revised +0.6% in Q3. This brings final 2009 GDP to -2.0% y/y with median forecast at -1.9% and advance estimate of -2.1%.

The upward revisions were largely because of the much better-than-expected growth in December industrial output of +14.4% y/y and +18.1% m/m vs -9.5% y/y and -4.6% m/m reported in November, which had not been factored in the advanced estimate. The government also raised its 2010 GDP forecast to 4.5-6.5% vs previous 3.5% on stronger growth momentum. 2010 inflation forecast revised to 2-3% vs 2.5-3.5% and total trade growth forecast to 9-11% from 7-9%.

My Twitter Account

2010-02-13T04:47:00.000-08:00

Twitter is now becoming the thing for today. I don't want to miss it too. If want to follow my twitter, here is the address : http://twitter.com/fxftj. You can also click the icon on the right to follow me.

It has been a long time since I did not blog on my forex trading. I hope I can blog but because of time limitation, I have to pass it. So my blog post will be short, like this, so it do not take too much time.

Okay that's all. Short and simple. Have a nice weekend to all. Don't forget to follow my twitter.

Gold Upward Move

2010-02-11T18:57:00.000-08:00

Gold has advanced around $8 to $1090 area as a falling dollar boosted demand. The metal has exhibited a bullish bias since hitting a three month low of $1043.75 on the 5th February (in line with the dollar decline) but is running into technical resistance at around $1100 (psychological resistance level) with a best of $1097.50 yesterday.

Stock trading and debt in U.S

2009-10-15T16:45:00.000-07:00

Debts in United States have sky rocketed. Debts have assumed such a proportion that they have spiraled out of control. Following the Great Depression of 1929, US Government debt accounted for 15% of the gross domestic product or the GDP. As of September 2009, the same figure has attained a whopping 425% of the GDP. Demand for debt settlement and different forms of debt relief options have increased like never before.

One of the significant changes that have taken place in the economic setup is earlier USA used to be "a creditor nation". With the prevailing scenario it can be rightly called "a debtor nation". The financial markets have undergone upheavals. Whether it is stock trading or currency trading or any other form of investment vehicle, consumers were panic stricken. Some sold off their stocks to get hold of some cash while others retained their stocks or continued trading currency pairs in the forex market. For consumers that have retained their investment portfolio, some are reaping benefits of their harvest.

The income they are earning from stock trading or any other form of investment is serving as an alternative source of income. Many debtors have become debt free in this manner. It is always advisable to opt for the debt solutions that are alternatives to bankruptcy. Few of them are debt settlement, where the total amount you owe gets reduced by as much as half or more. The other common debt relief options are debt consolidation and debt management where a debt consolidation and a debt management company respectively talk to your creditors on your behalf. This is usually done to lower the interest rate and the monthly payments thereby making your debts affordable.

Let us see how stock trading in US can help you in debt settlement and eliminate your debts. When you register for a debt settlement program, you stop making payments to the creditors directly. You make payments into a trust account till the time there isn't enough cash for initiating negotiation with the creditors. Then you pay off the creditor his dues. So, the amount you are paying into the trust account can be funded from what you earn from stock trading.

So, this is how investors have derived benefits from their investment portfolio, be it stock trading in the US or any other form of investment.

Description: Debt settlement is a process in which your debts are eliminated. Find out how stock trading can help you in the same.

Keyword: debt settlement

This is a guest post from author Robin Williams.

USD Remains on the Backfoot Following the FOMC's Massive Monetary Easing Policy

2009-03-26T18:27:00.000-07:00

The USD remains on the backfoot following the FOMC's massive monetary easing policy by using its balance sheet in an attempt to unclog credit and reflate the US economy. The increased money supply and lower interest rates should help to boost risk appetite and at a minimum prevent the US economy from falling into deeper recession. The nagging question remains whether this alone can help boost lending given that unemployment is still at lofty levels. Commodities which are priced in USD surged with precious metals and crude oil rising above $52 leading the charge.

This has seen Aud/Usd and Nzd/Usd chalk up gains of 8% and almost 10%, respectively, over the last week. The EUR and GBP were both beneficiaries of the Greenback's current woes rather than any fundamental shift towards both currencies. ECB Webber speaking.

Euro Interest Rate Cute in March 2009

2009-02-12T07:18:00.000-08:00

ECB's Papademos, broadly in line with other council members, is quoted as saying a further rate cut in March "maybe appropriate" in order to maintain inflation over the medium term, at a level consistent with price stability.

Speaking in London, Papademos doesn't rule out inflation falling close to zero for a short period; but once again sees the risk of deflation in the Eurozone as "remote". Otherwise economic risks remain to the downside, with it too soon to say whether a bottom has been reached. Meanwhile the ECB VP says any unconventional policy steps will be taken independent of rate policy. ECB members have been talking up the chances of a further rate cut in recent days, with a 50bps reduction from the 2% level, now more or less assured for the upcoming March 5 policy meeting.

More Jobs are Expected to be Lost in Malaysia

2009-01-29T08:36:00.000-08:00

According to local reports, more than 10,000 have lost their jobs since January, citing Employer Federation executive director Shamshuddin Bardan.

Shamshuddin said more jobs are expected to be lost in the days ahead as companies, particularly in the manufacturing sector struggles to stay afloat. In an urgent appeal to the government yesterday, Shamshuddin said it was utmost importance for second economic stimulus package to be released fast so that companies know where they stand.

He added that economic downturn is much worse than 1997, and made critical as almost 600,000 job seekers enter the local market each yr, with another 1.5-2.0 millions foreign workers competing for same jobs.

Obama Confirms USD 775 Billion Will Be The Economic Stimulus Package Starting Point

2009-01-08T06:25:00.000-08:00

Obama confirms to CNBC that USD 775 billion will be the starting point for Thursday's economic stimulus package, with the amount likely to grow once it gets taken up by Congress. In the interview, Obama also said that he wants to avoid living in a "bubble" and will pay close attention to how financial markets react to his policies.

Just to recap elected President Obama is scheduled to deliver a major speech on the economy and his stimulus plans on Thursday 11 am. Reportedly there will be Q&A. There have already been hints the stimulus plan will be over a 2-year period with about a 60/40 breakdown between spending and tax cuts.

Malaysia Will Implement MYR 7 Billion Stimulus Package by Q1 2009

2009-01-08T06:15:00.000-08:00

The government may float another stimulus package according to local reports. Local reports says PM Badawi has given directive to begin preparing another package, citing second Finance Minister Yakcob in a television interview. Yakcob was quoted as saying that Malaysia have the capacity to spend more due the fact the it was able to reduce at 5.5% of GDP budget deficit in 2000 to 3.2% in 2007.

There is an existing MYR 7 billion package which the government is hopeful will be fully implemented by Q1 this year. According to Yakcob the MYR 7 billion stimulus package objective is to mitigate unemployment, and promised the government will be more interventionist compared to log-regulation model from West. Yacob hinted the additional stimulus would have element to "raise quality of workers once crisis is over".

Time Management Techniques

2008-12-19T05:51:00.000-08:00

For a trader, time management is very crucial. I think most of us don't want to stare at the chart continuously all day long and missed all the excitements on world around us. That why we need to time our trade. Here are some techniques of time management, they are quite general, but these techniques can be applied to the trading:

Learn to say no. Prioritize the people and tasks in your life.
Put perfectionism in its proper place. Don't waste time by demanding perfection of yourself and others. Not everything requires perfection.
Avoid or manage interruptions. The telephone is one of the biggest time wasters.
Screen calls; reduce chit-chat; group outgoing calls; have necessary materials available; train others to handle calls; arrange a time to take/return calls; control closing remarks; monitor length of calls; schedule a no-calls taken time.
Delegate when possible. Assign low-priority tasks to others.
Handle each piece of paper or mail only once. Immediately make decisions about what attention it requires.
Transform commuting and waiting time. Listen to books, language programs and education materials on CD or cassette while commuting, exercising or waiting in line.
Have assigned places/systems for routine items and tasks. Always store keys, purse, briefcase, tools and utensils in the same place. Follow the same principle with clothing and grooming items. This reduces the time wasted searching for routine items.

More Pain for Dollar in 2009 Q1, GBP Down, EUR Slowing Rally

2008-12-18T03:16:00.001-08:00

US Dollar Bashing Continues

USD bashing continues after the Fed cut rates by 75 bps with the USD Index support at 79.88 easily giving way. With no earth shattering economic data out of the US until the end of the year, the USD is likely to fall further as the currency is now the lowest yielding coupled with upcoming weak economic data in 2009.

With their monetary ammo almost running out, the Fed has turned to quantitative easing to provide liquidity, and the Fed’s plans to buy US Treasuries and mortgage-backed security (MBS) will also drive the USD lower. Thus, more pain will be in store in Q1 for the USD.

GBP Continues Going Down, EUR Rally May Slow Down

GBP continues to suffer on poor economic data and forecast of more rate cuts after the BOE Minutes revealed Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) wanted to cut more than 100 bps. November retail sales forecast at -0.6% m/m (-0.1% previous) will not help the GBP's cause along with expected rise in Public Sector Net Borrowing (PSNB). EUR rally may slow ahead of German December IFO survey of business sentiment forecast at 84 (85.8 previous) with expectations at 77.0 (77.6 previous) and current assessment at 90.8 (94.8 previous). Fed Fisher speaking.

Malaysia's Third Quarter GDP Growth Slows to 4.7%

2008-12-01T06:23:00.000-08:00

The third quarter GDP released on last Friday showed growth slowing to 4.7% y/y (4.5% forecast) and compared to an upward revised 6.7% y/y in second quarter (previous 6.3%). The Central Bank sees fourth quarter growth even slower at 3.5-4.5% and full year 2008 at 5.0 to 5.5%.

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) expects inflation at less than 3% in the second half of 2009. The Central Bank said it is ready to provide dollar liquidity for trade finance and that it has flexibility on rates but added that current rates are not inhibiting borrowing.

UK Considers Joining The Euro, Said EC's Barasso

2008-12-01T06:12:00.000-08:00

The UK is apparently considering joining the Euro as a direct consequence of the global crisis. Speaking on France's RTL radio, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso commented the crisis had emphasized the importance of the Euro, with some British politicians having already said to him: "If we had the euro, we would have been better off".

Majority of British were still opposed to its adoption, but Barroso noted a period of consideration was underway, and the people which matter in Britain are currently thinking about it. Pro Euro comments have also been voiced to the UK by Hong Kong's leader, Donald Tsang, who was quoted last week as saying that Britain's efforts to hold on to the Sterling were a doomed failure in a global economy dominated by powerful currency blocs.

Short UK Pound Sterling, Said JPMorgan Chase & Co and Credit Suisse AG Index

2008-11-24T08:31:00.000-08:00

JPMorgan Chase & Co said in a report that investors should sell the pound against the Swiss franc because the financial markets remain in deep recession mode.

The analyst of the company also suggest to long Japanese yen against the dollar and the euro (i.e short EURYEN, short USDYEN), and short the pound against the Swiss franc (short GBPCHF).

According to a Credit Suisse Group AG index of probability based on overnight index-swap rates, policy makers will lower the rate a further 75 basis points at the next meeting. This will further make the UK pound to fall further.

The Bank of England's two-year yield fell below 2 percent on November 20 for the first time in at least 16 years.

Possible Rate Cut for Ringgit, In View of Falling Inflation

2008-11-24T08:10:00.000-08:00

The central bank is due to meet later today to determine interest rate level. Current OPR is 3.50%. Results is due at 1800 hr local time (10000 GMT). Market is divided whether Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)'s Zeti would finally cut rate in view of falling inflation. October inflation fell to +7.6% vs September 8.2%, and November has seem further all in pump prices, where according to Domestic Trade Minister will fall to 3-year low by end of November. Also for 2009 the government has lowered growth forecast to +3.5%, signaling expected sharp slowdown in the economy, amid the global slowdown. Any rate cut would be first since 2003, and a 25 bps could be expected of BNM do decided on a rate move.

Trading on Barrack Obama Hopes

2008-11-24T08:03:00.001-08:00

Over the weekend, the new elected US President, Barack Obama said that he was crafting an aggressive two-year stimulus plan to revive the troubled economy. Obama warned over millions of jobs being lost next year and the risk of falling into a deflationary spiral that could increase the country's massive debt even further. Over ABC, Senator Schumer estimated that the next stimulus package needs to be around $500-700 billion and said that it could be ready by 20th of January, when Obama is sworn in.

Otherwise Mr Obama will introduce his economic team on Monday, with it being more or less confirmed by officials that NY Federal's Tim Geithner will be Treasury Secretary, and Lawrence Summers, the Director of National Economic Council as rumored. Markets continue to trade on "Obama hopes" for now, with Dow futures opening firm in Sydney after Friday's 500 point surge.

Malaysia's Economy Still On Track and 2009 Stabilization Plan

2008-11-04T08:11:00.000-08:00

Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi says additional measures will be announced in parliament today to respond from the effects of the global economic meltdown. His deputy Najib is expected to announce the measures as he winds up the debate on the 2009 Budget which is part of government "stabilisation plan" announced last month. The PM would only say that more steps would be taken to cushion the impact and meet impact of the challenges of the crisis.

Badawi repeats the economy is still on track with banks well capitalized and have sufficient liquidity, and wants the financial institutions to continue to provide loans for key projects initiatives to ensure their success. The PM also said that direct foreign investments are still flowing into the country because of stability of MYR.

U Shaped Recession in the US Economy, said Roubini

2008-10-24T02:01:00.000-07:00

Roubini, the NYU Economics Professor and former advisor, is back to signalling doom and gloom, commenting over CNBC that the US economy is entering at least a two-year "U" rather than "V" shaped recession, that will be longer and deeper than previously feared. Roubini or sometimes known as "Mr Doom" says its going to be the worst recession the US has experienced since the 1980s; with a slowdown in global economic growth combined with continued problems in credit markets and housing to haunt the economy. In addition, he sees hundreds of hedge funds getting wiped out, and combining with earnings to provide another weight on stocks.

Dollar Technical Analysis October 2008

2008-10-17T06:28:00.000-07:00

Let's look at the chart below (click to popup the larger one).

Obviously the dollar in the uptrend. It has breached the 80.5 (approximate) resistance level and heading higher. This level has become a new support level for the dollar. The dollar then hit a resistance at 83+ and rejected down to 81+ level again. Now it's look like the dollar is retesting the 83+ again. I don't want to predict the outcome, but let's just trade the flow. Okay, bye.

US Economy to Grow Below Potential

2008-10-10T07:09:00.000-07:00

Boston Federal's Rosengren says that the US economy is to grow well below potential for the rest of 2008. US exports will weaken with slower world growth, and housing has yet to hit bottom. Economic weakness is being compounded by severe financial headwinds. Firms are holding back on spending until the economic outlook is clearer, and firms with good credit ratings are struggling to get financing. The current "liquidity lock" is worsening problems created by the credit crunch. The Fed's measures should help to restore confidence in the credit markets. Rosengren, who was speaking at the University of Wisconsin, did not discuss the interest rate outlook.

Commodities Dumping Continues, Dollar Strengthen

2008-10-04T00:02:00.000-07:00

Commodities continuing to be dumped on dollar strength and global growth concerns following ECB's change in stance overnight and a batch of weak US economic data. Oil tumbling below the $93 handle to a low of $92.81/barrel in Asian after hours trade. The downside move comes after the contract settled $4.56 lower in NYMEX at $93.97 after hitting a low of $93.56. The price has since bounced back to just above $93, but continues to look vulnerable to further unwinding. Key support is touted at $91.11, with major resistance back up at $96.83.

Gold has otherwise slid below $840 to a low of $832.70/oz and back within sights of last nights 2 week low of $829.20.

Malaysia's Prime Minister Badawi Has Announced His Early Departure, Other Looking To Be DPM

2008-10-03T23:56:00.000-07:00

PM Badawi had announced his early departure, a number of next level leaders have been eyeing for the presidency in UMNO if not at least the vice presidency that could be worthy to be Deputy Prime Minister to Najib when he takes over the PM post. Tengku Razaleigh from Kelantan state and once a former Finance Minister has set his sight for the top post.

A former private secretary of Najib and now a minister in Prime Minister's office Ahmad Zahid sprang a surprise overnight that he will run for UMNO's No 2. His declaration is likely to draw International Trade Minister Muhyiddin out early into the fray. Yesterday Muhyiddin says he will wait for PM final intention by October 9. Muhyiddin would may be split eying for No 2 to Najib or go for broke and form his own dream team. As a parting shot Zahid thought Muhyiddin may be too harsh to ask the PM to step down which goes against the grain of Malay culture.