My Investment Analysis

FX Alerts: Bottom of the Range [Aug 20, 2010]

Rafael Rosa — Fri, 20 Aug 2010 13:53:04 +0000

Most of the majors are at the bottom of their weekly ranges. It is recommended to wait for the daily close today before opeing new breakout positions. Additionally, playing the range may offer the better risk-reward trades.

FX Alerts: Trendlines, Consolidation, and Short Pound Bias [Aug 18,2010]

Rafael Rosa — Wed, 18 Aug 2010 16:37:27 +0000

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FX Alerts: The Bear is out

Rafael Rosa — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 13:35:41 +0000

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FX Alerts: Daily Trendlines and Reversals (08/09/10)

Rafael Rosa — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 18:31:23 +0000

Some things don’t last too long. And the 10x FX Challenge seems to be no exception. Due to technical constraints, I’m putting the challenge on hold for now. At our last recording on Thursday, the account was up some 12-15%. It finished the week being up 11%.

My availability is currently too erratic and making it difficult to make consistent live trading sessions that add value. I feel like the sessions can be made into better 5-10 minute recordings that are concise and explanatory.

Thus our new series: FX Alerts. I’ll be posting 5-10 minute recordings almost everyday with charts and trade ideas. The goal is to have the recording before the U.S. trading session. However, some ‘alerts’ will be made during other time frames.

Below is the first recording. A little rusty, but nothing a few days of practice won’t fix. It covers the daily trend lines to watch in the major pairs as the FOMC meeting looms in. I also talk about Fibonacci retracements and other setups recently mentioned on the blog.

Notice: In order to properly see the charts, you must watch the HD version.

Chart of the Day: NZD/USD Double Top

Rafael Rosa — Thu, 05 Aug 2010 22:20:42 +0000

Technical analysis suggests that the New Zealand Dollar-US Dollar cross is forming a double top on the 4 hour chart. After reaching a 2010 high at .7395 on July 27, the pair seems to be losing upward momentum.

A worse-than-expected unemployment number (6.8% vs 6.2% expected) yesterday was the catalyst that stalled the pair for the second time. This retracement aided in creating the possible double top technical formation. Traders will now be looking to see if the pair reaches the .7195 neckline zone.

The NZD/USD will have to break several support areas before reaching the .7200 level. It will have to break through the upward trendline starting on June 6,2010 in the daily chart. This trendline also corresponds to the 21 SMA (simple moving average) on the daily chart and the 100 SMA on the 4 hour chart.

As for basic momentum indicators, the 4 hour RSI and MACD point to a slowdown in the pair’s momentum.

Note: RBA policy statement will be released tonight and likely affect the New Zealand dollar.