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Malaysia's Property Prices To Rise As Much As 20% Within 6 Months?

2010-08-10T12:43:00.004+08:00

According to Datuk Michael Yam, President of Real Estate and Housing Developers' Association
Malaysia (REHDA), prices of residential properties will rise 10-20% over the next six months because of cost and inflationary pressures! He added that the current housing market is simmering, and there is neither boom nor bust, but property prices will rise. The increase will be in high-rise and landed properties in all price categories across Malaysia! The issue of rising property prices was partly due to an imbalance of supply and demand as more migrants move to land scarce Kuala Lumpur.

Interestingly, in a recent survey of 133 Rehda members, 81% expect price hikes by as much as 20% in the next six months!

Can you ever imagine a terrace-linked house being sold for about RM1.6 million? Well, that's happening in the upper-class enclaved Desa Park City!

Nevertheless, there are views that Malaysia's property prices are still under appreciated by foreigners. Some experts attributes this to a lack of liquidity in the market and competition from Hong Kong and Singapore where capital appreciation is better due to price volatility. In addition, when other important consideration comes into play, such as public transportation, the branding of the city and KL is considered provincial when compared to London, Hong Kong or Singapore. In simple terms, KL needs to be seen as world class and provides better livability.

For the full article on the above, click this link.

Back In The Black, For Now At Least...

2010-05-14T10:21:00.004+08:00

Malaysia has just reported a strong growth of 10.1% for the 1st quarter of 2010, led by strong recovery in exports! On the other hand, Central Bank has also raised the OPR (Overnight Policy Rate) or the official interest rate by another 25 basis point. That means Bank's BLR will go up likewise, by the same token at the very least.

Seems Malaysia represents only the handful countries in Asia that keeps pushing up interest rates...

In a way no surprises to me, given BNM's normalization process as economy recovers. In fact, I expect another rate hike coming around July after the announcement of 2nd quarter GDP.

Does this mean all are hunky dory from now on? Not quite. Much will still depend on how the current European (PIIGS) sovereign debt crisis pan out. Greece has been bailed out no doubt, but that could well be just the tip of the iceberg!

If things turn out for the worst, then we should expect economy to start turning down again in the second half of this year.. Expect to have an eventful second half! In the midst of another potentially looming crisis, the consolation is that we can at least sit back and enjoy the upcoming football World Cup.....It will be another set of drama for sure!

How To Invest in Individual Stocks Using EPF Money

2010-05-13T14:15:00.005+08:00

Phillip Capital Management (PCM) is one such company licensed by Securities Commission and an approved Fund Manager for EPF. In order to invest your EPF money with Phillip Capital to buy individual stocks, you will need to first of all satisfy the criteria set by EPF as summarised in my previous article "Can You Invest In Individual Stocks Using EPF Money?"

Calculation example:

Procedure:

Fill up the application Form KWSP 9F (AHL) which you can download from EPF website or visit your nearest EPF office.
Download or obtain a copy of the latest EPF statement
In the Form, indicate the amount you are entitled to withdraw and submit it to PCM, together with a copy of your MyKad, and that's about all!
PCM will then submit the relevant documents to EPF for processing, which is expected to complete within 2 to 4 weeks.
Once completed, the funds will be transferred into your PCM trust account.
You may start to purchase any of your desirable stocks using PCM's online trading platform.

Upon disposing the stocks, the funds will be returned to the PCM trust account. Upon termination of account, the funds will be reverted back to your EPF Account 1.

Other noteworthy Terms & Conditions:
- upfront fee of 3% chargeable by PCM. Withdrawal from EPF is free of charge;
- annual management fee of 1.5% is chargeable by PCM;
- normal on-line trading brokerage & admin charges at about 0.55% of transaction amount is payable;
- minimum holding period is 1 year. Termination only upon one month's written notification thereafter;
- minimum investment is RM30k but can be broken down into trunks starting with RM10k, as long as the minimum amount is satisfied within one year;
- Stocks are only applicable for equity stocks, excluding warrants or any other preferential stocks

Do manage your risks before investing! Best to adopt defensive strategy as EPF money is not meant for excessive speculation!

Can You Invest In individual Stocks Using EPF Money?

2010-05-13T10:33:00.011+08:00

Many people are probably aware that they can withdraw money from their EPF (Employees Provident Fund) savings to invest in ministry approved Unit Trust funds. However, many are probably not aware that there is also a way to invest the EPF money on individual Bursa Malaysia stocks!

Some people prefer the idea of leaving the tough decisions on choosing the right investments with Unit Trust Fund Managers but in doing so, they effectively relinquish control over how the money will be invested. Ironically, the objective of Fund Managers are often to safeguard their jobs, instead of looking after investors' best interest, i.e., make money and return on investments!

On average, EPF's average annual rate of dividend is between 5% to 6%. The rate of return is no doubt better than Fixed Desposits (FD) return but for the savvy or wise investors, this sort of return is barely sufficient to counter inflation! (By the way, forget about the so-called officially reported inflation rate of 2% to 3% because the reality is much higher than that!)

So instead of keeping all your money in EPF or leave the money with someone else, why not consider moving some money from EPF to investing in individual stocks of your choice? Without doubt, there are risks with this approach because one can potentially lose this hard earned money if the wrong choice of stocks is chosen! With the stock market being so volatile, you may think that this is extremely risky!

To mitigate the risk, one of the key success factor is through first of all doing a little bit of homework up-front and selecting stocks or companies that possess good quality and fundamentals, plus supported with decent dividend yield. To be comparable with the annual rate of dividend from EPF, one should look for dividend yield that can at least match EPF's if not better. A scan across some of the quality Bursa stocks will reveal that a number of companies under REITs and consumer businesses generally do fit such criteria!

So how do you qualify to withdraw funds from EPF for the above investment? Let's list down some of the salient points:

savings of at least RM5,000 more than the Basic Savings amount required in Account 1, and must be equal or below 55 years old. The basic savings is the minimum amount you must have in Account 1 before you can apply under this scheme. The table below shows the different minimum savings required for people of different ages:

2) 20% from your savings in excess of your Basic Savings amount in your Account 1, that means the minimum amount for investment withdrawal is RM1,000.00, given the condition set in point (1).

3) Formula of eligibility = (Account 1 – Basic Savings) x 20%.
4) Investment can be made at the intervals of 3 months from the date of the last transfer, subject to the availability of the required balance in Account I.
5) Investment must be through appointed external Fund Manager by the Ministry of Finance. Click here for the complete list.

I hope this gives you an idea of an alternative form of investing, for your hard-earned savings that you can't simply screw up, i.e., EPF. In my next post, I shall touch on precisely how you can invest in individual Bursa stocks using your EPF funds and the inherent costs that you should be aware of.

Here's the link to EPF should you require further clarification.

The Inevitable...Postage Rate Hike

2010-04-07T11:25:00.006+08:00

After much speculation, I just got the confirmed news that POS Malaysia will increase the tariff or postage rate effective from 1st July 2010! Frankly, I foresee the rate hike is a matter of time, given that the last hike was way back in 1992!

As per the information that I have gathered so far, the postage increase will affect domestic postage stamps for standard mail below 50gram, non-standard mail below 100 gram, periodicals, and PosDokumen.

Here's the quantum of increase....
- For standard mail weighing up to 20 gram - RM0.60 to 0.70 (from the present RM0.30 to RM0.40).
- For others in general, the quantum of increase is 75%.

The higher postal tariffs effectively paves way for POS Malaysia to raise employees’ salaries (which is currently reported to be below the average government servant’s salary) by 30%.

In addition, the higher earnings will also pave the way for the company to undertake it's aggressive transformation plan such as potential mergers & acquisitions, revamping operational efficiency and cost reduction exercise.

No wonder it's share price has also shot up the past few days...let's take a look. "Someone" obviously knew this is coming for sure!

Is US stock market on verge of another big rally?

2010-03-26T14:17:00.005+08:00

Some experts say investors are starting to believe that the U.S. stock market is on the verge of another big rally.

The fact is, Dow Jones Industrial Index have just posted new high above 10,800 compared to previous high posted in January 2010.

US's National Association of Realtors reported a drop in homes sales last month that wasn't as steep as forecast.

However, the report on housing was typical of recent economic numbers that have been somewhat better than expected but still point to a weak economy.

For now, it appears the sales numbers aren't disrupting hopes that the economy can recover even if there is only a slow stabilizing in the housing market.

A month ago, investors shrugged off an 11.2% drop in sales of new homes.

The market's continuing advance has been welcome but analysts are divided over whether stocks have run too far or if they have more to gain because of improvements in the economy. The story on investors is that they are afraid of missing out on further gains, after seeing the Dow making new highs.

On the other hand, investors seem optimistic about the health of corporate earnings for the January to March quarter.

Also, unlike the developed nations, Asia (excluding Japan) is still growing and certainly is the place to be at least for the next couple of decades. So despite America's and Europe's problems, it's a mere fact that there are certainly plenty of light at the end of tunnel elsewhere! It's a certainty that American companies will follow suit where the money is.

However, the issue on sovereign debts of Dubai and Greece has still not gone away, despite plenty or reassurances from various party.

As always, there are two sides of the coin to look at. One can be optimist or pessimist. May be one more for being neutral? Whatever it is, I always believe in following the trend, and that's where the smart money is. Current trend obviously still point to the north (up trend), supported by relatively strong volumes, amidst intermittent signals of danger looms!

Why do I say so? Well, simply the hot money (or better termed as liquidity) is still there, no matter what people say. The smart money has come to the realization that money has to be invested and parked somewhere (to counter inflationary stress), no matter fundamentally it's right or wrong!

However, the musical chair will stop one day of course....So until then, let the party moves on.

The Year of the Tiger, A Year Of Volatility?

2010-02-13T15:43:00.005+08:00

The tiger is characterized by being energetic, optimistic, impulsive and restless. 2010 is the year of tiger in the Chinese lunar calendar (4708). People born in this year are believed to be adventurous, sensitive, emotional, risk-taking, smart, and straightforward by nature.

Chinese New Years falls on 14th February 2010. Celebrations start on the eve of the new moon and end 15 days later with the full moon lantern festival.

According to many Feng Shui master, 2010 Year of the Metal Tiger will be a Bad Year! Inside the Tiger, there is Wood, Fire and Earth elements. Here lies the "problem", ie., having no water element is the problem!

So, if the Feng Shui views were to be believed, then expect high volatility in the global stock markets for the year of 2010! Already we have seen glimpses of trouble started off by Dubai, followed by the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain). With further tightening of lending by Chinese Government to curb speculative activities, and the imminent raise of interest rates by the U.S. in the near future, risk aversion will likely return to haunt the markets as USD-carry trades being unwinded.

Things can only return to the better unless the fundamental aspects of the real economy such as consumption, exports and employment return to normal.

Last but not least, I would like to wish all Chinese a Happy and Prosperous Chinese New Year!

New Roads to Travel,
New Skies to Conquer,,
New Dreams To Live,
New Hopes to Cherish,
It's the Beginning of Yet Another Year,
May it Be a Fulfilling Experience For You!
A Year of Excellent Health, Wealth, Happiness and Wisdom!
Happy 4708!

A Case of Reality Check

2010-02-09T16:12:00.003+08:00

2009 was a stellar year for global stocks recovery. As I had written before, it was more hope than factual when global funds decided to take on an optimistic route. 2010 is expected to be a lot tougher, in the sense that what was expected last year must bear fruit this year, in order to sustain the bullish views across global economy and investments.

Last year (until the beginning of this year) we saw massive inflows of funds into emerging markets particularly like China, frenzily mopping up undervalued equity stocks and real estate properties. Property prices in Shanghai, for example, has even surpassed the previous highs made before the 2007 financial crisis! Things were beginning to look more bubblish and speculative than solid fundamental!

Problems began to emerge towards the end of 2009, in places like Dubai where they were not able to service their massive debts, to the point they need to be rescued by Abu Dhabi's sovereign funds.

Next in line comes some of the European countries commonly known as the PIIGS (being Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) who appear increasingly unable to service their respective sovereign debts.

The key question in everyone's mind is that will this snowball into a global issue? Thus turning it into a double dip recession, as what some economists have predicted?

Worries about Europe caused the Euro to hit an eight-month low against the US dollar.

The perception of US Dollar may even turn to become a safe haven! Some analysts are also predicting a bullish rally on US Dollar this year against world major currencies!

China's Financial Market: Positive Reforms

2010-01-11T17:28:00.002+08:00

China's latest decision in introducing derivative stock-index futures, short-selling and margin financing in equities are additional positive reforms designed to bring its markets in-line with other major global stockmarkets. Could this be also a further sign that China's financial markets are growing in maturity?

Personally, this is definitely setting the path to the right direction as China continues its effort to liberalize its markets, in order to become more competitive. However, in the short term, it may come at a cost to local Chinese investors as they require time to familiarize themselves with more sophisticated instruments. The degree of learning curve will definitely affect the outcome and return on investments too. For instance, margin financing may sound attractive to many people, in the form of easy availability of funds but if it's not managed properly and effectively, investors may find themselves landing in a bigger financial hole than they could ever imagine.

See related post "Is Margin Trading Right For You?"

Nevertheless, it is widely expected that the above reforms should help shrink the valuation gap that has kept yuan-denominated shares (A-shares) at a premium to similar shares listed in Hong Kong (H-shares) and Singapore (S-chips). The valuation gap between Hong Kong and China, for instance, could trade more than 50% such as what happened in August 2009.
The valuation gap between the two is often attributed to China's capital-account restrictions, which make it hard for average investors to buy shares in foreign markets.

With the availability of shorting mechanism, it will then be possible for qualified Foreign Institutional Investors to short the more expensive A-Share and buy cheaper H-share companies.

Short-selling refers to selling a particular stock first with the aim of buying back at a lower price later, for a profit.

HSBC have estimated the reforms will boost the amount of cash circulated on China's yuan-denominated stock markets by 200 billion yuan (US$29 billion) to 500 billion yuan during the next 12 to 24 months.

It will also be interesting to see if the H-shares will outperform Chinese stocks in the near future, once the above instruments were implemented.

With some believing that the introduction of index futures will help moderate share-price volatility, personally I have doubts that this will happen. Volatility will stay as long as there are abundance of liquidity in the market.

Nevertheless, one could certainly use index futures to hedge against stock holding risk, by shorting index future while being long on stocks.

No Escape From Credit Card Service Tax

2009-12-29T10:17:00.004+08:00

For all Malaysians who carry credit cards, looks like your faint hope of the Government withdrawing their decision to charge service tax is in wane! In the light of Government's push for "prudent spending", better act smart now!

If you try to contact your banks these few days, chances are the phone lines could be jammed with traffic!

However, the good news is that you are unlikely to be charged the service tax immediately, as the fee is only payable when new credit card is issued, or upon the anniversary date of the credit card issuance.

For example, if a credit card is issued to a new cardholder on Jan 15, 2010 with a validity period of a year expiring on Jan 14, 2015, a service tax of RM50 would be chargeable on Jan 15, 2010. On the anniversary date of the following years (i.e., Jan 15 for year 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014), the same amount of tax will be charged again on the respective dates.

For existing cardholders, for cards issued on Sept 18, 2008 with a validity period of five years and expiring on Sept 17, 2013, service tax would be charged on its anniversary date on Sept 18, 2010, followed by Sept 18 2011 and Sept 18, 2012. However no tax will be levied for 2009 given that the policy will only be effective Jan 1, 2010.

Credit cardholders can expect to see the payable amount of service tax in their statement separately.

In the event a credit card is upgraded (such as in the case of a Classic card to a Gold card) or downgraded (such as in the case of a Gold card to a Classic card) or converted (such as in the case of an Islamic card to a conventional card) or reinstated (such as in the case of a cancelled card), the service tax will be charged on the new cards issued unless the anniversary dates of the previous and the new cards are the same,

For supplementary card holder, the amount of tax levied is RM25 per card.

The above tax applies to both credit cards or charge cards, but not on cash cards such as debit cards, petrol cards, closed community charge cards, loyalty cards and e-money like “Touch n’ Go”.

Another piece of good news is that most banks have agreed to allow card holders to pay the service tax via reward point redemption. The estimated point for redemption is about 10,000 bonus point for principal card and 5,000 point for supplementary card. However, the points could vary from bank to bank.

Related Post:- To Cut or Not To Cut?

Merry Christmas & Happy New Year

2009-12-25T02:20:00.003+08:00

I would like to take this opportunity to wish all my friends a MERRY CHRISTMAS and Happy New Year! May the good times and treasures of the present become the golden memories of tomorrow. Wish you lots of love, joy and happiness.

Happy investing and many good returns ahead in 2010!

China Stocks To Rally In 2010?

2009-12-04T13:00:00.004+08:00

Source of Article: Bloomberg

Chinese shares may rise as much as 35% next year as the yuan strengthens and earnings growth accelerates, according to Greenwoods Asset Management, manager of this year’s best-performing Chinese long-short equity fund.

According to Greenwood's Hong Kong office head Joseph Zeng, the gains by A shares denominated in yuan in Shanghai and Shenzhen will probably exceed a forecast increase of as much as 30% for mainland companies’ H shares traded in Hong Kong. Zeng's prediction is that China shares will extend gains as they have yet to enter a speculative “bubble”, and now trade at about 24 times estimated earnings, below the 10-year average of 35 times. In addition, China will probably yield to pressure from trading partners by allowing the yuan to appreciate by between 4% and 6% by end-2010, easing imbalances that worsened the global economic crisis.

The Shanghai Composite Index has jumped more than 8-% this year, as the government implemented a four trillion yuan stimulus package and allowed banks to lend beyond targets to support an expansionary monetary policy.

However, the US$1.3 trillion credit boom and a revival in the property market have triggered warnings about possible asset bubbles by officials and investors. Zeng on the other hand believes that overall property market isn’t in bubble territory yet either, because the “big gains” in prices were mainly confined to major cities.

According to Zeng, Greenwoods’ US$174 million Golden China Fund has 30% of its portfolio in A shares. The fund favours companies whose A shares are trading at lower valuations than their H shares. It also likes companies with “compelling valuations” in industries that are under-represented in Hong Kong, including Hundsun Electronics Co, which develops software for financial companies.

The Golden China Fund, which invests in A shares, H shares and American depositary receipts of Chinese companies, rose 137% year to date as of Oct 31, the best return among Chinese long-short equity funds, according to data from Bloomberg and the company. It also has the highest total return over one year, three years and five years among 37 peers tracked by Bloomberg.

Lifeline For SwissCash Investors?

2009-11-16T10:47:00.006+08:00

SwissCash, an internet investment ponzi scheme that has caught many investors on fire a few years ago, has finally laid claim to a RM31million (USD9.1million) settlement with Malaysia's Securities Commission (SC).

Indeed, according to Zarinah Anwar, the Chairman of SC, investors who are successful in getting a restitution are fortunate given the elaborate scam by the Malaysian masterminds who went to great lengths to establish set-ups in a number of jurisdictions in an attempt to appear legitimate.

The SC initiated civil proceedings in the High Court against Albert Lee Kee Sien, Kelvin Choo Mun Hoe and Dynamic Revolution Sdn Bhd and last September, the court ordered them to pay US$83 million (RM280.62 million) — the estimate of total investments in the scam. The SC then obtained a worldwide Mareeva injunction restraining the defendants from disposing of their assets.

As for the investors, you have the SC to thank for as they rightfully have no obligation to the loss of your money in such schemes!

To recap, the scheme offered investors as much as 300% annual return of their investments and many were hooked by the "get rich quick" tags.

There is no doubt over some investors did get their payoffs but just like many of the other get-rich-quick schemes, this kind of scheme works like a musical chair. When the music stops, the ones caught without the chair will be punished or banished!

Despite the lessons learned, I am pretty sure schemes like this will continue to pop up in the future, mainly to take advantage of mankind's major weakness, i.e., GREED! Recently, i have come across another potential scam in-the-making investment scheme involving casino operation, with apparent connection with the upcoming Singapore's new casinos. Similarly, lofty returns were promised with further lavish incentives such as free Macau vacation tour and gifts in the form of gold chain or accessories.

DON'T BE THE ONE CAUGHT WITHOUT THE CHAIR WHEN THE MUSIC STOPS!

The Worst Is Over? Listen To What the Two Richest Men Have To Say

2009-11-13T17:24:00.005+08:00

Capitalism is still alive and well, say the world's two richest men, despite lingering shocks from the longest, deepest recession since the Great Depression.

During a live interview in an auditorium filled with nearly 1,000 people at a CNBC-sponsored event at Columbia University in New York, Warren Buffett, the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, and Microsoft founder Bill Gates fielded questions from Columbia Business School students on the recession and investing.

Most notably, Warren Buffett said that the financial crisis is behind us, and the bottom has come in stocks, therefore do not pass on something that's attractive today!

Both Buffett and Gates also agreed that although mistakes were made, the fundamentals of the American system and a marketplace-driven system where American invest in education and innovation, coupled with a great long term infrastructure, will continue and augurs well for the future of U.S."

To watch the video of Warren and Gates interview, click this link.

For the full article, visit Yahoo News

For Buffett's latest view on investment, click this link.

To Cut or Not To Cut?

2009-11-10T17:10:00.006+08:00

For many Malaysians, the first thing that probably comes into mind is the on-going P1 WiMax advertisement that has caused some gender controversies but essentially tried to convince consumers to switch their internet broadband services to the wireless WiMax technology. The latest P1 WiMax technology is supposed to make the experience of broadband internet surfing better and faster, "plug-and-play" with no physical phone line required.

Now that's not what I am referring to. I am referring to the more pressing issue of Malaysia's Government's recent plan to introduce service tax for credit cards from 2010 onwards. To recap, each card holder will be charged RM50 and RM25 for each principal card and supplementary card respectively, starting January 2010. If a person holds 5 credit cards with two supplementary, the total amount could add up to RM300 each year, and that's a big amount to pay for!

Personally, I hold something like 10 credit cards! Well, it's not that I'd like to have so many of them but merely because of the different kind of benefits that each of these cards could offer. For example, some credit card offer 2% rebate on petrol usage, while some others offer better discounts or rebates for supermarket spending, etc. Essentially, the banks have been very creative in rolling out different kinds of benefits to entice consumers to sign up for different credit cards. Since we can't have all-in-one facility, we have no choice but to sign up for these different cards. After all, there is no harm done provided the use of credit cards are not abused.

With the introduction of service tax, the benefits now seem to be muted. Besides the consumers, the biggest losers will be the banks and the sales agents whose livelihood depends on promoting the credit cards to earn a commission!

While the objective of prudent spending appears sound and should be supported, I believe it should not be done at the expense of genuine credit card spenders. The Government should instead impose targeted measures on credit card holders who defaults on payment on a regular basis. For instance, a mechanism to suspend all the credit cards of a particular credit card holder who defaults more than x number of times should be considered. Else, create more incentives for the use of debit cards instead of credit cards instead.

Nevertheless, if you are holding on to many credit cards right now, do not simply cut them apart. Wait for further advice from banks pertaining to this matter. I believe banks are actively pursuing the matter with the Government in order to come up with better measures. With the Government's constant flip-flopping policies, it will not be a surprise if they decide to change it again!

After all, it's also still not too late to make a final decision to cut your credit cards in December, if the situation renders so.

Power Towards High Income Nation....How la?

2009-10-26T16:38:00.004+08:00

Our beloved Prime Minister of Malaysia had finally delivered his much anticipated 2010 budget. It was claimed to be a peoples' budget, with the stated aim of elevating the people of this country to high income status....

Sure, a number of positive incentives were tabled, such as:
- reduction of personal income tax from 27% to 26% effective 2010;
- an increase of RM1,000 for personal tax rebate
- an additional RM1,000 for personal tax relief on pension fund and life insurance
- people who are self-employed are given the option to contribute to the pension fund savings at any amount monthly starting 2010, with the Government contributing further 5% to the amount of contribution;

However, the positives are mitigated by the following negatives:
- introduction of RM50 service tax on each principal credit card holder and RM25 for each supplementary credit card holder
- reintroduction of real property gains tax (RPGT) for real estate disposal, starting from 2010, with a minimum of 5% tax regardless of the duration of holding period (Again, a common Government flip-flop policy sickness has reemerged!)
- realigning the fuel subsidy scheme to make sure that it benefits the lower income group....Whatever that means!

Is there really much to shout about? Hang on a second....how are these supposed to elevate the people to become high-income nation? To make things worse, the Government has also slashed next year's targeted GDP growth to around 3%! On the other hand, Malaysia is barely a decade away from its Vision 2020 target and there's certainly little sign that the developed status objective can be achieved by then! As per my understanding, the nation will need to grow something like 7-8% per annum on average for the next decade in order to achieve that and that's a very tall order indeed!

I am sorry, I just don't see how the "high income" word can be associated in this context! It certainly won't work unless there is a radical change in the governing approach and mindset, and with principal focus on meritocracy, liberalization and enhancing competitiveness as the priority.

What's your thought on the recent national budget for 2010? I look forward to your sharing.

Is Gold Truly A Safe Haven?

2009-10-15T00:38:00.005+08:00

Following my post on "How To Invest In Gold?", I received a number of queries on whether investing in gold is truly safe as projected by many investors or analysts.

For the matter, i can assure you that all investments come with risks, with gold being no exception.

With gold prices reaching record highs and recently exceeding USD1,000 per ounce, there were many bullish calls for gold to scale even higher!

Before you decide to jump into the gold rush, i recommend you to first read this new book written by Doug Eberhardt. The title of the book is "Buy Gold Safely". The book reveals the importance of gold, how you can keep your gold investment secured, the underlying secrets of gold investing that the experts do not want you to know, common pitfalls to avoid while investing in gold and much more!

Click Here!

Although some of the information contained in this book are slightly outdated, it certainly pays to understand how gold mechanism works and why it is absolutely critical in preserving our wealth and maintaining a balanced investment portfolio!

On the other hand, do not make the mistake of simply assuming investing in gold at any time is good! Remember the big correction in gold prices in 2008 from the peak of 1000 to the low of 712? Understanding the state of affairs and a sense of timing are still essential!

Click Here!

How To Invest In Gold?

2009-10-09T23:24:00.007+08:00

Arguably, gold is the only investment asset class in the world that is widely perceived to be the safe investment haven. Many investors will therefore choose to invest in this precious metal as part of their wealth preservation and creation strategy.

During last two years, when all the asset classes have failed to perform, gold is the only investment asset that has remained outperformed. As such, Gold is also widely believed to be the best hedge against the U.S. dollar and inflation. When U.S. Dollar falls, demand for gold is set to increase as investors sought to preserve their wealth. In addition, gold has a very low correlation with other asset classes like equity and debt thereby it's a very good asset to diversify for the overall portfolio.

The most direct way of investing in gold is to purchase the physical gold bullion directly from financial institutions or dealer. You can then choose to safe keep the gold yourself or the safer alternative is to keep them in a secured vault owned by third party such as banks.

Instead of holding physical gold bullion, there are a number of other forms of investment in gold without the need to hold physical stock. In Malaysia, both Maybank and Public Bank offer the convenience of gold investment account with a passbook, whereby every trade is done through the account without the involvement of physical stock. Transactions are highly liquid as the buying and selling are based on the bank's prevailing quoted buying and selling prices.

Other means of gold investment (without physical delivery) include Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), unit trusts (mutual funds) and also the choice of investing directly in gold mining companies.

Gold ETFs are open-ended mutual funds that are passively managed and they mirror the return of spot price of gold. Gold ETFs are listed and traded on stock exchanges just like stocks. As such, the cost of trading Gold ETFs is lower compared to mutual fund type of investment. Gold ETFs provide returns, which before expenses, closely correspond to the returns provided by physical gold. Each unit is approximately equal to the price of 1 gram.

Some of the most popular regional gold ETFs and mutual funds include:
- DWS Invest Gold and Precious metals Equities (listed in Singapore)
- United Gold & General Fund (listed in Singapore)
- DWS Noor Precious Metals Securities A USD (listed in Singapore)
- SPDR Gold Trust ETF (listed in U.S., Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan)

Here you are some of the gold investment vehicles available for your consideration, should you decide to get hold of one of the world's most highly sought after precious metal!

It's All About Liquidity

2009-09-25T11:49:00.004+08:00

What happens when you have lots of money in the bank? Quite rightfully, the tendency is to either spend it or invest it wisely. In a macro scale and global financial terms, we call this liquidity.

Back in 2006 and 2007, global financial markets were flushed with liquidity, aided by the sub-zero interest Yen-carry trades. After all, funds were cheap and it was not surprising that investors took the risk to invest in assets with higher returns with lower cost of funds. However, many investors were caught badly burned as the global financial markets collapsed in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, followed by the massive loss of liquidity.

When funds dried up and there was a massive loss of confidence, investors naturally become risk averse. Markets continue to fall until the first quarter of 2009 amidst this phenomena.

Since March 2009, the outlook has changed drastically, due to massive pump priming by countries around the world and the huge injection of funds by the U.S. Government to bailout troubled financial institutions. Quantitative easing (printing of money) by countries such as U.S. and U.K. has certainly contributed massively to the availability of funds as well.

As a result, global financial markets are now flushed with liquidity. Whether this is artificially created or not is subject to your own interpretation though.

With U.S. economy showing signs of recovery, the U.S. Government has to decide whether it's time to gradually withdraw the stimulus plan. Indeed, this is what comes out of yesterday's FOMC meeting, however, with no specific timeline mentioned yet. Federal Reserve is not likely to do so until U.S. unemployment rate starts tapering off. Bear in mind that with all the talk about U.S. recovery, the unemployment rate is still hanging high at almost 10%!

With liquidity being the major driving factor, any move that could potentially dampen liquidity prematurely may spark another round of fear within the financial sector.

On the other hand, i believe the bull party is ain't over until there is a dramatic change in liquidity. As such, I am quite prepared to hold on to my positions until there is a clear sign of otherwise emerged.

Exchange Traded Fund vs Mutual Fund (Unit Trust)

2009-09-08T00:34:00.001+08:00

During an uptrend market like the current, you may consider to invest in an index linked security (alternatively also known as tracker fund) instead of trying to pick the right stock. An index linked security essentially links its performance according to the broad market index performance, such as Dow Jones Industrial Index or Malaysia's FBMKLCI. Locally in Malaysia, there are many index-linked unit trust funds available in the market. However, before you consider parting your money in an index-linked Fund, understand your cost of investment and consider the alternative such as ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds).

  ETFs are baskets of securities that trade like stocks on an exchange and are designed to track the performance of an index. Examples are FBM KLCI ETF Fund and MyETF Dow Jones Islamic Market Malaysia Titans 25, the first Syariah compliant ETF in Asia.

Investors who want to buy an index linked unit trust fund may be better off buying the ETF which does exactly the same. The obvious benefit is that the cost of ETF is cheaper. This is because there are no management and upfront fees, unlike unit trusts.   The upfront fees for unit trust in Malaysia on average is about 3% to 5% but could be as high as 7%!

Besides, a unit trust fund may charge up to 1.5% a year on management fee, which is much higher than the 0.5% charged by the FBM KLCI ETF.

Buying ETF is exactly the same as buying a stock, with the same lot size of 100 units. Unlike unit trust, buying and selling ETF is easy and traded real-time. Dividend is also distributed by ETFs generally on a half yearly basis.

So next time when you were to be approached by unit trust salesperson, find out about the cost of investment first. Don't let the hidden charges affect your fund performance.

Unlock The Equity Cross Road....

2009-08-27T16:36:00.009+08:00

The word goes that when the U.S. sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. The above scenario is still pretty much valid, given how the financial troubles in U.S. had led to the global economic meltdown for the rest of the world! So despite all the speculation about the potential decoupling of world's economy from the U.S., it is simply not true as globalization has increasingly turned the world flat and like it or not, Americans are still the biggest spenders in the world, mopping up many products and services the rest of the world has to offer!

However, China has gradually and surely increased its role in the world's economy, given its huge domestic market (served by 1.4 billion people) and the enormous pace of growth averaging 8 to 10%. In time to come, it will not be exaggerating to say that if China sneezes, the world will likely catch a cold too!

Global stock markets have recovered strongly, against the odds, for the past 6 months. Major doubt is now being raised as whether the optimisms have run ahead of fundamentals or it's a mere speculation? The answer, I'm afraid, is highly subjective. Bear in mind that equity market is always forward looking, which essentially means that as an investor, we simply cannot wait until the event unfolds! Yes, it's a calculated risk that we all will have to take.

Recent data seem to have pointed to a sustainable recovery. However, whether one views it as a V, W, U or S shaped type of recovery is again highly subjective! Tan Teng Boo of iCapital Fund Management seems to believe we are at the beginning of another bull run and there will be a V-shaped recovery! However, most other analysts or financial gurus tend to take a more conservative view. Taking a long term view with China and likely India to spearhead future's economic growth, it is likely that we should have seen the worst for now provided U.S. do not spring more surprises or open up another can of worm!

Right now as we speak, global markets seem to be reaching a cross road where the next direction should be. It is understandable that investors are feeling nervy, having witness a dramatic bull rally for the past 6 months. An overheated bull will tend to follow with meaningful short term bear correction. Only then will the bull have an opportunity to recharge.

Mark Mobious, the well-known founder of Templeton Asset Management and investment guru, stated about a month ago that markets could decline between 20% to 30% following the recovery.

As a matter of fact, China's Shanghai market has corrected (or crashed?) about 20% the last couple of weeks, driven by fear of Chinese Government's plan to tighten the domestic credit market. Tightening credit at a time when China's export and unemployment are still weak does not seem to make sense. However, it is also a concern that excessive liquidity could lead to excessive speculation and unproductive output. As such, the latest measure is meant to ensure that credit resources are diverted to productive investments, which will strengthen real economic activities rather than continue to create bubbles in the stock market and the real estate.

To me, it's good to take a pause and re-assess the status quo, rather than taking the gung-ho approach. The faster one climbs, the harder one falls....

Perhaps, it's also a good time to re-assess your portfolio too. Some spring cleaning will always prove to be timely indeed in due course.

Is U.S. Housing Making A Comeback Soon?

2009-08-20T23:38:00.008+08:00

Housing, which led the U.S. economy into recession, may be one of the forces that helps to pull it out of the ditch. Although nobody expects a renewed housing boom, at least sales and construction spending are not falling any further.

Some of the signs of stabilization include:

Home builders are gradually becoming more hopeful, even though surveys show most builders are still very discouraged. The builders' housing market index has risen in four of the past five months.
Housing starts have increased in four of the past five months after tumbling to a postwar record low. Building permits for single-family homes have risen at a 109% annual rate over the past three months.
Sales of new single-family homes have risen three months in a row after falling to a record low in March.
Sales of existing homes have risen four of the past five months, supported by a government subsidy for first-time buyers and by sales of foreclosed homes.

However, residential mortgages either in foreclosure or with at least one payment past due hit 13.16% in the 2nd quarter, the highest percentage ever recorded!

Mortgages somewhere in the foreclosure process reached 4.3% of all mortgages, up from 3.85% in the 1st quarter and 2.75% in the 2nd quarter of 2008

With current U.S. unemployment rate at almost 10%, it leads to the sign that mortgage performance is once again being driven by unemployment. In fact, prime fixed-rate loans now account for one in three foreclosure starts. A year ago they accounted for one in five. While 41 states had increases in the foreclosure start rate for prime fixed-rate loans, 43 states had decreases in that rate for subprime adjustable-rate loans.

Until the U.S. employment situation improves, it is unlikely that there will be meaningful improvement in the foreclosure and delinquency rates.

Data Source: MarketWatch

Is Margin Trading Right For You?

2009-08-08T00:58:00.007+08:00

Leverage your money. That's what many of us have often been told or practising. However, not all forms of leveraging is good. For example, not repaying fully your credit card bills and servicing high amount of interests is not a good way of leveraging. To sum it up, you need to weigh the cost and benefits of such leveraging and the associated risk before jumping into it. If the cost outweighs the benefits and comes with high risk, such form of leveraging is obviously not for us!

In equity trading, there are generally two forms of account, being cash account and margin account. Cash account simply means you pay cash up front, before purchasing shares. In countries where settlement period (T+x day) is allowed, full settlement has to be made upon the maturity of the settlement period. Margin account, on the other hand, allows an investor to purchase more shares than his cash deposit allows, normally two times the amount. For example, supposed you have $10,000 in cash deposit, you are allowed to purchase up to $20,000 worth of shares. The other $10,000 is like a form of borrowing from you broker or securities firm, in which they will charge you interest (for the amount of borrowing) based on prescribed interest rates calculated on a daily basis.

Effectively, this is a form of leveraging. Question is, is this a good form of leveraging? Let's explore the advantages and the inherent risks.

Quite clearly, margin trading allows you to trade more than what you have, and therefore, allows you to make more money if your share price projection turns out to be correct. However, the same holds true (i.e., more losses) if the share price goes against your direction!

Here's the added risk when the direction of the share price goes against you. When the amount of shareholding falls below a certain predetermined amount (by the broker or securities firm), the broker is entitled to issue a margin call. What a margin call simply means is that you will need to top up the shortfall immediately or latest by the next business day.

For example, supposed you have cash deposit of $10,000 and you have bought shares worth $20,000. Let's say share prices have gone down by $6,000 and you now have $14,000 remaining. Your net cash position now is %$4,000 ($10k - $6k loss). Assuming margin requirement is 30%. you will need to maintain a minimum of $4,200 ($14k * 30%). In this case, there will be a margin call given your net cash position runs below the safety margin.

Failure to top up within the set timeline will render the broker disposing your shares. Worst of all, it can be done without your knowledge!

To further add salt to the wound, your losses could be blown out of proportion as you continue to top up your margin but the market further deteriorates against your expectation!

You need to be also aware that the amount borrowed incurs interest on a daily basis. As such, it is an added cost of investment. As such, there are holding costs should you decide to hold on to a stock.

In conclusion, my advice is do not trade margin account unless you absolutely understood the kind of risk that you are dealing with and is prepared to take on such risk without major adverse consequences. Personally, I do not and will never trade with a margin facility. Simply, it's way beyond my tolerance of risks!

How To Invest In Overseas Equity Market?

2009-08-03T00:24:00.004+08:00

For those who would like to diversify their portfolio investments beyond the local shore, this article sets to explore the ways to do so. Just to emphasize, I am articulating on direct or active investment instead of passive investment such as investing in unit trusts.

Thanks to globalisation and increased investors' appetite for better investment returns, many Malaysians have started investing offshore (In part this is also due to the fact that Malaysia stock market is no longer favoured by foreigners and is lagging far behind stockmarkets in Hong Kong, China or even Singapore in both performance and liquidity).

If you are interested in investing in multiple key global markets, the one that instantly comes to my mind is Interactive Brokers (IB). IB offers a very comprehensive list of financial markets to invest in, ranging from North America (U.S, Canada, Mexico) to Europe and Asia Pacific (Australia, Hong Kong, India and Japan) region. The products offered are also wide ranging, from equity to forex, derivatives, bonds, ETFs, CFDs and so on.

IB's brokerage rate is also one of the lowest available. For instance, to trade in U.S. stocks, the brokerage charge is only US$0.50 per lot (of 100 shares) with a minimum $1 brokerage per order!

Application for an account can be done easily through the web (online). Even Agreements can be digitally "signed" online! The only manual work which you need to provide them is a copy of your Passport and a signed copy of certain local Authority Form such as W-8BEN in the case of trading in U.S. For added convenience, you may fax them a copy of these documents or simply scan and email a copy to them.

One word of caution though, the trading software for IB is not that user friendly. So it may take some time for you to get used to it. However, step-by-step guides are readily available from their website. All you need to do is to run the videos.

For those who are interested in trading in the U.S. market only, my preferred broker is ThinkorSwim (ToS). Brokerage rate is higher at $1.50 per lot or fixed at $9.95 per trade (whichever is lower and subject to a maximum of 50 lots for fixed rate) but the trading software is much more user friendly and feature packed. Among them include the ability to display multiple chart patterns all in one screen.

The beauty about these online brokers is that you can also do virtual trading, that is, trade without real money! This will give you a sense of better confidence before starting real trades, and is ideal for beginners who would like to get familiarise with the trading platform and/or test certain trading strategies.

To start real trading, you will need to deposit funds first into the trading account. In other words, there is no more T+x day type of settlement. All trades are cash up front but you may choose to trade with a margin facility.

Funds can be easily transferred from your local banking account to the U.S. designated account using wired transfer or more commonly known as Telegraphic Transfer (TT) in Malaysia. You will need to bear the TT charges (charged by both local and foreign banks) as you do the transfer. Just inform the broker about the transfer and they will notify you once the amount is successfully banked in. Normally, this should happen within the same business day.

Trading platform is much more sophisticated compared to our local markets as you can literally set your trading criteria (e.g., entry price, stop loss and profit target) and walk away without ever watching the screen again! You can even set orders such as market order, stop order with or without limit and OCO (One Cancel Other) orders. Once you learn how to do it, trading is very easy and a peace of mind in case you are busy at work or go to sleep!

Other than signing up with online brokers, the other viable option is to trade via your local investment bankers or stock brokers. A number of local Investment brokers have for the past couple of years rollout offshore trading in order to cater for this increased interests. Among the Investment Brokers offering this service include CIMB, OSK, Kenanga, Maybank and RHB Investment Bank.

However, do take note that this type of trading is not done online. The arrangement is between yourself and your local broker. Orders can be instructed by you and your broker will forward the trade instruction with their respective counterpart in the particular country of trade. Exchange rate is determined by the broker on the day of trade. There is no standard brokerage rates apply so you will need to verify with your preferred broker before trading. There will also be some signing of paperwork required before you want to start trading offshore.

Generally, this type of 3rd party or indirect trading will be more costly than online trading. It will probably be fine if you do not intend to trade offshore frequently and do not have the time or patience to learn a new trading platform. Also bear in mind that there will be a delayed trading execution given the offline mode of instruction and involvement of 3rd party.

Rich Dad Poor Dad With A Twist..

2009-07-08T23:21:00.003+08:00

Many people are familiar with the book Rich Dad Poor Dad authored by Robert Kiyosaki.

Here's a different twist with a different perspective on who's rich and who's poor.

One day, the father of a very wealthy family took his son on a trip to the country with the express purpose of showing him how poor people live. They spent a couple of days and nights on the farm of what would be considered a very poor family.

On their return from their trip, the father asked his son.
Father: "How was the trip?"
Son: "It was great, Dad."
Father: "Did you see how poor people live?"
Son: "Oh yeah."
Father: "So, tell me, what you learned from the trip?"
Son: "I saw that we have one dog and they had four. We have a pool that reaches to the middle of our garden and they have a creek that has no end; We have servants who serve us, but they serve others; We buy our food, but they grow theirs; We have walls around our property to protect us; they have friends to protect them."
The Father was speechless, before the son added: "Thanks Dad for showing me how poor we are!"

A different perspective may change our way of life and success, for the better forever.

Do you have a story? Please share.